Atlanta under 93.5 wins was one of my bigger bets this preseason. ZiPS had them at 89 wins, and Szymborski's system was pretty profitable last year if you targeted teams with 4+ games of "value" on either side. Acuna being out is a massive loss, and the Jays are fortunate to face Atlanta without him.

Tonight's order has Clement batting 5th against a RHP = yikes.

It's always good to start a series with a relatively fresh bullpen. Only Fluharty should be down tonight, but perhaps Hoffman is as well.

I am a big fan of waking some guys so they don't hurt you.
The Jays have done this with Judge last year.
Ozuna is good candidate to work around tonight.
I am probably not the first guy to think like this, Ozuna has already walked 16 times this year.

And Profar? Is he part of your curse? Or is AA just naturally attracted to guys who perform like PED users?

Was Freeman simply dumped because Acuna is the face of the franchise?
Or is he not? 8.4 WAR 2 years ago but hardly played last year.
Or maybe AA has a limit and apparently it's 22M per year. Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Chris Sale, all making 22M.
Acuna is only making 17M and it's down to club options after 2026. 
Spencer Strider is on a backloaded contract--AA still loves those--which goes up to--you guessed it--22M in the last 3 years.

Braves have Strider coming back on Wednesday and Acuna back in a few weeks. Very different team with those two around and I still expect them to challenge for playoffs and if they get in, would be a WS contender.

Wow, great news before the game. Ozuna didn't travel to Toronto and won't be available for this series.

Walks will kill you about half the time — as in this half-inning.

Also, Sean Murphy is a good player.

Lots of hard contact tonight against Easton.

I also read that Scherzer continues to experience pain in his thumb and is going to see another specialist. I’m losing hope that he will be a contributing member of the club.

I think he's seeing the same specialist again.

Not sure this lineup is capable of scoring 4 runs over a week of games. Top of the lineup has been In a year-long slump and rest of lineup is all bottom of order hitters.

I find it remarkable other teams have consistently hit a lot of HR's against Toronto so far despite Toronto's excellent pitching but don't show much power against anyone else. How is that possible even possible or even likely when at the same time our sluggers have hit exactly one.
We know Baltimore has a lot of power but how do they hit 15 HR's against Toronto in 6 games and 2 HR's against the rest of their opponents in 9 games? That is a massive disparity.
There has to be some bad luck there but while teams are pounding the ball over the fence our sluggers have One.
This is so bizarre and unlikely I have to believe this will change because it has too.

Hands up if you saw Straw, Heineman and Gimenez outhitting Bo, Vladdy and Santander almost 20 games into the season.

Feels like Straw should be playing almost every day until Varsho gets back. Lots of really good AB's and he's a great fielder.

that's a lotta very quick strikeouts by Bo tonight.

lol that's another ridiculous anomaly greenfrog, but this time in our favor and has a lot to do with our winning record.
How do these consistently mediocre hitters with little power all of a sudden string consistent great at bats together with power? Truly remarkable.
Thanks to these guys we are a winning team thus far, obviously not tonight, although they are the ones again with great at bats.

"Not sure this lineup is capable of scoring 4 runs over a week of games."

challenge accepted, good sir!

Another solid game from Straw, who some wanted off the team despite him being an obviously great fit for the bench.

Kudos to Barnes and Rodriguez for pitching efficiently and saving the bullpen for another night.

yeah so so crazy not wanting Myles Straw on the team.

what a bunch of weirdos.

Credit to Lucas for holding up and getting his 5 innings in despite having nothing tonight. Amazing to give up 8 runs in 5 innings and still be at just 87 pitches. But with the offense only scoring 4 it would've taken a great game for the team to win. I'd say Lucas having a 4.70 ERA after 3 starts (2 Jay wins, 1 Jay loss) is a win for the Jays overall. Lets hope for better things tomorrow.

The Vladdy signing felt like a huge distraction to me.
Let's focus back on playing the game.

For the record, I was a supporter of the Straw move after I went back and watched a couple of his (few) 2024 MLB games. He's a perfect 4th OF...

The issue is that he's just not really worth his salary (kind of like Gimenez once he starts making $23.6M/yr).

Straw is being used well so far. I wouldn’t mess with that. Unfortunately that means Lukes has to play CF, but I don’t think playing Straw everyday even temporarily is going to help. Let him be a 4th outfielder like he is now.

I expect Varsho back in a week or so and then Lukes likely down although Roden a contender too. Roden's offensive statcast is brutal right now. Not sure what's wrong but he seems to hit everything softly on the ground. Wagner too. Both have ability to work counts and then they get their pitch and top it slowly to 2Bman or soft fly out to LF. Still love Roden long-term but Jays need to get offense out of more than 1 or 2 spots in lineup. Jays facing 2 of the best pitchers in baseball next couple of games. Let's see what they can do.

Never bet against Lukes ...
I don't get why people still attach value to a few dozen ABs in ST and the first weeks of the season.  Lukes has been better than Straw for years now.  Does this FO seem the type to vary from it's planning, it's internal depth charts, etc, just because of statistical noise?  How many ABs is it again before performance starts to normalize?

Straw was acquired as a sunk cost.  The value of Straw was the bonus money. 

He still might beat Lukes out, but the fact that Straw made the roster in the first place is the surprise, not the presence of a valued depth player in the 26th man spot.  I'll say it again, I think Lukes is better, but even if they are roughly equal, the moral choice is still to give the ABs to the guy without the tens of millions in career earnings. 

I think it more likely they demote Schneider, or even Roden, over Lukes. 

The bottom of the order hitters have so far demonstrated that the Jays approach to minor league positional depth seems to be working. 

Some similar success with pitching - say Lucas continuing to surprise - would go a long way for us. 

Jay's management really like Lucas's easy delivery and intend to keep him as a starter even if he is eventually sent down to Buffalo. (Mentioned on last night's broadcast)

The moral choice is to maximize the playing time/contributions of the best 26 players they have on any given day. The team’s purpose is to win games, not re-distribute wealth.

At least in his time in Vancouver, Roden's natural hitting profile was much less pull centric than what he is doing now. He looks like he's trying to pull everything and its resulting in him rolling over and making weak contact.

Once Varsho is back, and if Springer is still hurt you keep Roden, but if both Varsho & Springer are playing everyday then there isn't space for Roden to play everday so you send him down and keep both Lukes and Straw. They each have value on a bench as 4/5 outfielders. Just never expect more than that - maybe a platoon but that's it. Either being left on a bench for a week isn't a big deal, but Roden on the bench that long would be.

Right now it looks like Roden and Wagner are just spare parts to be honest, neither lighting it up either 'normal' stats or 'advanced' wise. Roden has the highest GB% on the team at 62.2%, Clement the lowest at 23.5%, Infield Fly% is led by Schneider at 33.3% (yikes!), Roden just behind at 30%, for soft% Schneider again #1 at 42.9%, Roden 28.9% is 2nd. Schneider has yet to hit a ball hard. Wagner seems middle of the road in everything. Roden also has the lowest LD% at 10.8%. Ouch.

I don't get why people still attach value to a few dozen ABs in ST and the first weeks of the season. Lukes has been better than Straw for years now.

Despite that, Lukes has barely been able to stay on the MLB roster, even though it's hardly been stacked with outfield star power. This is his 4th year in the Jays org, and he's accumulated 151 PAs over 63 games.

He's always looked like a perfectly adequate bench player to me, but the Jays seem to see him as more of a AAAA reserve

If the team's purpose is to win games they should sign Bauer for the MLB minimum. Unfortunately, it's not.

I feel like Rodon's stance is different than it was in the second half of last year - more upright and I don't remember such a pronounced high arm bar. It looks awkward. I plan to look back; I just haven't had time.

Barger's not in the AAA game this afternoon... Team's not facing a lefty so I wonder if he's on the taxi squad in Toronto just in case Springer doesn't bounce back?

Bauer? No bloody way. The guy has been treated like a leper by all of MLB, starting with the Dodgers who threw away a lot of money by doing so first. Given the Dodgers are, without any doubt, the smartest team out there if they decide a guy is too toxic to have around odds are he is that toxic. He missed 2022, in '23 he had a 2.76 ERA in Japan, in '24 a 2.48 in Mexico. Solid numbers in both leagues, but not 'WOW'. To justify a toxic guy like him they'd need to be more like ERA's in the 1's or K's in the 15/9 IP range, instead of 8.95/9 in Japan and 12.96 in Mexico (below AAA level, Korea now often seen as a higher level of play). Yoan López in that Mexican league had a 1.18 ERA over 53 1/3 IP but no one is chasing him down. Bauer is great at self promotion and might be a decent ML pitcher but guys who beat women for fun are not good to have on a team.

"Lukes has been better than Straw for years now."

Lukes has had 151 PAs career. You make it sound as if he has thousands of solid PAs and we need to be patient. Not saying Straw is a great player but he is an elite defender, has fantastic speed, and hits righty vs Varsho's lefty so for me, he fits the backup OF roll a lot better. Maybe they send Roden down if he still isn't hitting anyway and they both stay until one of the young guys forces the way into the team.

Barger is up for Lukes for paternal leave.

That makes sense - LH OF for a LH OF. Parental leave is 3 days IIRC so we'll see what the Jays do in a few days. Odds are they'll debate where Springer is at and at that point either IL him and keep Barger or debate on Barger vs Roden vs Lukes for LH OF.

Barger straight into RF tonight. Roden and Wagner in the lineup too. Straw in CF.

the more I look at it the more i think Straw's strong play ends up costing Schneider his spot. Schneider's the one with least playing time so far, has no defensive use, and has by far the longest stretch of current futility going.

his Spring Training was promising, but the cold reality of the regular season has hurt. if he's gonna ever save his career and get back on track he'll probably need some consistent playing time in AAA.

I also fear Scherzer may be finished. It was still worth the gamble, and if it leads to Easton Lucas establishing himself, the Jays won't be any worse off.

You wonder if Mad Max has the same issue now that David Cone had in 1995, pitching with an aneurysm. Cone had numbness in his right hand after throwing 140 pitches in a playoff game in a season where he threw 290 innings in the regular season. It was only when he pitched through the first month of the '96 championship Yankee season with numbness when doctors discovered the issue after months of searching.
A story, by the way, from Tom Verducci's excellent "The Yankee Years book."

jays shocking lack of power earns them a hit as the braves CF breaks back to the wall on a Santander bloop single way in front of him.

meanwhile, hitting homers continues to be super easy for all jays opponents.

Winfield wants runs.

The Blue Jays are in their 18th game, so they've played over 10% of their games this season, and Bo and Vladdy have combined for 0.3 fWAR (0.4 bWAR) with zero home runs.

We know that they've performed very well in some past seasons. They each have a couple of roughly 5 fWAR seasons (one of those was a 6.3 fWAR season for Vladdy, although that was four years ago). On the other hand, each has had some recently poor seasons, like Vladdy's 2023 (1.3 fWAR) and Bo's 2024 (0.3 fWAR).

At what point should we start to be legitimately concerned that Bo and Vladdy are more "above-average-but-flawed players" than "stars" -- and that the $500m contract for Vladdy is already looking like a mistake on the part of the team?

I'm not saying I've arrived at that conclusion. But their slow starts both offensively and defensively in 2025 are starting to raise the question in my mind.

From a solely baseball perspective you should be worried about the Vladdy contract. There’s far more MLB playing time data to suggest that he’s not elite than that supports the idea that he is elite But the first month of the season shouldn’t change your priors about anything really.

or you could choose to not worry about having one of the best hitters in baseball in his prime on your team.

Sure if you choose to live in a world in which winning in pro sports is entirely disconnected to salary efficiency.

your choice to worry about what you want to worry about.

no judgement here!

Roden baby!!

Roden's power shortage appears to be over.

that's some very solid contact three batters in a row now. that's refreshing.

I think they got Schwellenberger's timing down now.

The team needed that. As I said preseason, I think Roden is going to have a strong year.

Looks like Corbin Carroll is back in 2025. After taking a bit of a step back last year, the 24-year-old is hitting .343/.429/.735 (214 wRC+) with six home runs this year.

"Sure if you choose to live in a world in which winning in pro sports is entirely disconnected to salary efficiency."

So if you live in one of the three largest economic cities, LA, NY and Toronto.

To play devil's advocate regarding LA, NYC and Toronto elite salary players. 2025 wRC+:

Judge 246
Betts 170
Ohtani 161
Soto 151
Vladdy 110

It's hard to predict how much Vladdy will hit over the next five years or so, let alone in his 30s. Last year he posted a 165 wRC+, which is elite. His career wRC+ is 136.

Dalimon - you don’t need to bang that drum with me:). I have been making the point for years that the Jays can be among the mega spenders in baseball (the actual value of the tv rights (not what is actually paid) tells one that). But even the Dodgers and Yankees need to think about salary efficiency. Of course you can make more mistakes with $300m payrolls than $100m. But the Yankees have had actual payroll constraints several times in the past decade in part due to bad mega contracts.

I'm just responding to your comment. The Jays are not the Yankees or Dodgers and don't have as many players on onerous contracts. Ugly is right in that we have one of the best young hitters in baseball right now. If you grade him based on his contract or based on the top two hitters in baseball both half a decade older than him then you're almost always setting him up to fail. There's a tendency here to view the glass half empty and worry about ANYTHING trending downwards. Vlad should be the last of the concerns at this point and so to should the team payroll which has lots coming off the books next year.

Good to see Little post a scoreless inning. Pete Walker says the coaching staff is very high on Little, they really like his stuff and potential.

Fair enough - I give up. My original comment was just that while it’s fair to worry about the Vladdy contract one shouldn’t worry about the small sample size of a month. It is, as they say, what it is.

Nigel we are in complete agreement. I think Ugly's response was oriented more to Greenfrog's concern about the first 10% of the season vs elite Vlad and Bo. I think you and I have both maintained Vlad is what he is. Sometimes elite. Sometimes not. Still young. Room to improve. Room to fall off a cliff eventually.

If you grade him based on ... the top two hitters in baseball both half a decade older than him"

Judge (age 26 season) 150 wRC+
Ohtani (age 26 season) 150 wRC+
Betts (age 26 season) 135 wRC+
Soto (age 26 season) 147 wRC+
Vladdy (age 26 season) 107 wRC+

I think Vladdy has a good chance of being able to match those other players' age-26 offensive numbers in 2025. It's not guaranteed, though.

Point taken about April being a small sample size (and of course we're only halfway through the month!).

that's a nice bounceback win.

hopefully tomorrow Bassitt can keep his hotness going and/or Strider can keep his struggles going.

Good win and so nice to see multiple HR's in same game. Hopefully, this starts a Roden hot streak.

10-8 is solid. It would be nice to accumulate wins over .500 in the coming months, as opposed to falling well below .500 and struggling for weeks or months to get back to .500.

Nice to see some hard contact from Roden, off a very good pitcher too.

The key will be to get Strider's pitch count up. He should be on a relatively small pitch count.

Strider threw 5.1 innings in each of his last AAA starts (April 4 and 10). Here is his combined line:

1-0, 0.84 ERA, 10.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 21 K

OK, so he's good. Very good. Make him work tomorrow and hopefully have him max out at around five innings (or less).

A very tough schedule for the Jays this month and they are are 10-8 so far, 1/2 a game behind the Yankees, 1 1/2 ahead of the Rays & Red Sox, 3 up on the O's. I think everyone here would've been very happy with that at this point (April 15th) pre-season. After 1 more vs Atlanta comes 3 vs Seattle, 3 in Houston, then 3 vs the NYY, then home for 3 vs Boston and 3 vs Cleveland. Stay over 500 for those 16 games (8-8 or better) and the Jays will be in solid shape after a month battling mostly pre-season
contenders. They don't get the ChiSox until June 20th, A's July 11th, and Colorado until August 4th - the 3 weakest teams in MLB (most likely).

Slightly off-topic, but I didn't expect to see Griffin Conine topping today's exit velocity leaderboard (I mean, power is his calling card, but surprised he eventually made it to the MLB).

The Athletic have a poll on the best front offices. They asked 40 insiders to name their top 5 front offices. In total 20 front offices received votes.

It will not come as a surprise to see the Jays front office did not receive a vote. This leaves the FO in a group that includes the Athletics, the White Sox, the Marlins, the Rockies and the Pirates.

It was the second season in a row that the Blue Jays (along with the other also-rans: A's, Cubs, White Sox, Rockies, Angels, Marlins, Pirates, Cardinals, Giants) did not receive any votes.

Don't think Jays are anything near a top front office but meh on these results. I mean Tigers got 11 votes. Sure they've drafted well with tons of high picks (5 top-5 picks in 7 years) but free agency and trades have been poor. Twins are a terrible front office, worse than the Jays for sure and got 6 votes. Is Cleveland an elite front office? Milwaukee? For me they are solid but they also just play in bad divisions. Try to do what Cleveland or Milwaukee does in the NL West and they'd be 5th. I think Oakland is actually a decent front office as well just very hard to compete in those circumstances. Colorado and White Sox are terrible though.

Glevin, every team you mentioned has a far lower player payroll than the Blue Jays player payroll. That might be a factor in how executives and coaches across MLB are rating the Toronto front office. How well are you performing given the resources you have, etc.

People are mostly rating the ownership.
Getting votes on the internet doesn't mean anything.
Obviously, the Angels are a terrible organization and don't rank in the top 20.
There are only 2 ratings that counts, the standings and the attendance.

As for the Jays, I don't miss Guillermo Martinez.
Gibby and Montoyo are hanging around as bench coaches.

Maybe you should look at the article before commenting on its findings? It wasn’t an internet poll. “The Athletic polled 40 of the top decision-makers from across the sport, asking each to rank the top five front offices in baseball, though they could not vote for their own team.“

That would be like factoring the player contract when voting for MVP.

I agree with Gelvin's take and would like to add that I wonder if the lack of votes the Jays FO received is due to the small, anonymous sample. The sample could include (a) people who have been rubbed the wrong way by Shapiro/Atkins since their Cleveland days, (b) people who have not taken the time to appreciate that the Blue Jays are run with constraints based on both ownership & nationality that will encourage them to have to operate differently. Some in the industry probably perceive some of those differences as annoying and inscrutable.

No, it would not. A MLB player's on-field performance is based on his talent, training, work ethic, etc. Having more money in the bank doesn't allow him to acquire more home runs, stolen bases, OBP, etc.

But a MLB front office with a high payroll (Toronto is at around $244m) has many more options available to acquire players via trade and free agency, that do teams like Detroit, Minnesota, Tampa, Oakland, Milwaukee and Cleveland, each of which has less than $150m to work with.

For example, having a high payroll allowed Toronto to acquire Gimenez, Sandlin, Straw and IFA pool money from Cleveland in the off-season, while giving up almost nothing in return -- all because Toronto could take on those payroll obligations. Toronto also dropped $16m on a player (Scherzer) who might not even pitch this year, plus $500m on another player (Vladdy) in what was arguably a significant overpay to keep their fans happy.

chris, in support of your conclusion, you've outlined a bunch of speculative assumptions with no evidence to support them. Why assume that the 40 MLB top decision-makers chosen by The Athletic (a reputable publication) are biased or uninformed, as opposed to relatively objective and informed?

There's a list of the "top decision-makers"?

Also, why 40 and not 30?

I don't spend money on sport media.
This is a paywall article.
If you want to discuss it with other subscriber maybe take it somewhere else?
They don't have a forum there? Maybe for 50 cents a post?

I believe the results are playoff skewed. That explains the Tigers. Plus the Tigers have developed players from their minor leagues.

I have a theory why the Jays FO did not get votes. Its because they aren't good.

Scottt,

I posted the original comment on the article. Are you suggesting we cannot discuss paywalled articles on here? That seems very narrow.

I have a theory why the Jays FO did not get votes. Its because they aren't good."

Sure, but why did the Twins get 6 votes? Why did the Tigers get 11? I don't think the Jays front office is very good but there are plenty in the same range as them.

Greenfrog, sure payroll should matter but also division should matter and central divisions are essentially jokes. Anyone who is willing to spend even a tiny bit of money can compete. Red Sox got only one vote and I think they're AA pretty good front office. If it's about prospects, they have best top prospects in baseball. If it's about doing the best with no resources, athletics should have got some votes too.

I've heard that archive.is is a site people can use when they want to read something without subscribing to a publication.

As for the ranking of the Jays' front office - I think they performed exactly how I predicted based on their track record in Cleveland. I still can't see what they are doing different than best practices - you might argue their commitment to defence represents something, but I'd need more insight to make that determination. The buried lede in the torpedo bat story is that the Yankees are hiring bonafide smart people to look at everything with a beginner's mind. In a way, this is going back to the roots of analytics. From the outside the Jays FO has a stale approach rooted in ideas that are already of a bygone generation - KK's comments on his time with the Dodgers suggest as much.

I have a few issues with our FO. Mainly about the manager.

In the 80s Jimy Williams was a bad manage. Cito took that same team and made it work. Cito did it again when Richardi hired him. I don't know if Schneider is a good manager because it seems that he is interfered with. Bob Melvin is a good manager and also Brian Snitker. Both proven. Unavailable now.

The Jays have to do reasonably well (competitive) to generate those very high revenues. So we overpay on FAs because we can afford those contracts knowing full well that they will age badly.

Choosing good D and accepting weak O is a choice this FO has decided on. I don't know why.

I will admit to having a point of view. I said last season that I would have fired Atkins and I still think that.

I said above that playoffs matter, I will add that payroll matters too.

Detroit won the wild card series last season and lost in the ALDS.

Minnesota were in the playoffs in 2023 and also lost in the ALDS.

Both Detroit and Minnesota have a better playoff record than the Jays over the last two seasons.

In 2024 the Jays payroll was $220M, Minny $130M and Detroit $100M

So in the eyes of the voters Detroit and Minnesota did more with less.

While I believe that the Jays FO are bad, I am not saying that Detroit and Minny are good, I can just see why some voters would have given them a vote at 4th or 5th. If you look at the article many voters didn't want to vote for the Dodgers or Yankees because of their payroll.

Anyway, thats my opinion, over and out.

In the front office’s favour, they’ve made a number of good moves over the years, including recent moves like Hoffman, Gimenez, Sandlin, Straw, Yimi, Little and Lucas. Roden looks like a good late-round pickup. The current rotation looks solid. Nimmala looks like a potentially excellent draft pick. The ST facility and RC upgrades are notable accomplishments as well.

The main FO failing is the farm system and especially the inability to develop pitching. As a result, the team is spending more than it should on free agents and other veterans to stock the MLB roster, and they haven’t been able to adequately augment the team via prospect promotions and trades.

I really can't be surprised that none of the voters thought this FO was a top-5 FO.

of course there's plenty of other votes there that are hard to justify.

This FO is clearly not top 10 in MLB, but some of the teams that got votes indicate that there's an inconsistent premise involved. The Jays from 2020-24 rank 10th in MLB in wins. If you factor the first couple of weeks of 2025 into that, then they are tied for 9th with Seattle and San Francisco. If you look at 2020-23, then they ranked 6th. So if 2025 ends up being closer in quality to 2020-23, and 2024 ends up looking like an outlier over a 6 year stretch, then I think you would have to rank them middle of the pack at worst. Not great but not bad. Somewhere in between.

The 2024 Royals were under .500 in their non-White Sox games, and the Tigers were barely over .500 in that same scenario. Making the playoffs after years of being terrible in a bad American League due stacking wins against the worst team in MLB history doesn't seem like a top front office to me. Having less payroll to work with vs having a much easier path to the playoffs has to be factored in here as well. If the Jays were in the Central (damn you, Paul Beeston), then I'm guessing their payroll wouldn't be as high as it is right now because they wouldn't need it to be. In the AL East, you either have to develop at a great level (which they don't) or spend. They are doing the latter, and say what you want about this FO, but the only reason they've even been as good as they have been is because they are typically good with FA signings and trades.

The FO has been in place for a decade, so their entire body of work should be considered, not just 2020-2023 or some other subset of years.

I do think this front office is better than, say, the Ricciardi front office. I think there is some hope for them if they can successfully rebuild the farm system and make it sustainably much better. I don’t know if they are capable of doing this.

It has been nice to see the team winning games that it feels would not have been won last year. Amazing what good starting pitching and a couple of dependable (dare I say great) bullpen arms can do, even with a scuffling offence.

Here's hoping Vlad and Bo rejoin the power hitter ranks soon.

One strike away from both pitchers striking out the side...with completely different styles. Bassitt and his mix of everything and keeping hitters off balance, Strider just blowing people away with ridiculous stuff.

And then Tony Taters doubles to break up the narrative. :)

It's worth noting that Bo has been blistering the ball all over the place, and has been getting snakebit - his average exit velo is in the 82nd percentile, his hard-hit rate is in the 85th percentile, and his xwOBA is .413 - nearly 100 points better than his wOBA of .315, the 10th largest negative gap in the majors. Those are extraordinarily good numbers even without putting anything into the seats.

Totally. Hopefully a few reach the seats soon, would lighten the burden on the arms. Last night was a lot of fun from that perspective.

Divisional play, as always, is such a huge factor. Having an tire fire in your division (which the AL Central seems to alternate around as to which team takes up that mantle in a given year) inflates numbers substantially.

Unfortunate not to score after getting the first two on, but a much better inning against Strider. The Jays stopped helping Strider out by swinging at balls and he ended up throwing 30 pitches that inning.

A bunch of good at-bats against Strider in a row against Strider after Bo and Vlad were over-aggressive. Lots of three-ball counts.

I was just happy they didn't bunt with Clement there.

Nice hitting by Bo and Vladdy to produce a run.

Fatigue looks like it's setting in on Bassitt a big. Should be a quick hook with a fresh pen and a day off tomorrow.

I was just about to type that 92-93. Bassitt's stuff is fading. I'd start the sixth with the pen.

Bit shocked that Atlanta let Strider start the 6th.

Way to get on the HR board, Vladdy, may it be the first of many, many more.

"The moral choice is to maximize the playing time/contributions of the best 26 players they have on any given day. The team’s purpose is to win games, not re-distribute wealth".

Hey 99, that's an 'amoral' argument, no?  Maybe 'best' choice?

The team's purpose is indeed to win, which can be accomplished while also recognizing Lukes, because of the unique, weird advantages of ownership over minor leaguers, could lose financial security while Straw has guaranteed millions already. 

If the difference between two guys is marginal why not make the choice that secures a family, at the expense of someone who has already earned more than Lukes ever will? I think were I Straw, I might even suggest this to management.  I'm not Straw and no pro athlete, but I can see a clubhouse where Straw/others think like I do on some of this.

Lukes is old for a minor leaguer, his career passing him by in Buffalo.   Better than Straw (again, salary dump, net negative player a few months back) the past three years in the minors as well as the bigs, small big league sample sizes a necessity given his role.  This isn't about a player who hasn't been able to earn big-league time, this player earned time based on performance and willingness to ride, the shuttle or the pine.

I had a principal do something this for me, early in my teaching career - she'd lose me in three classes if she let me accept a permanent position elsewhere, but since I'd get a raise, she felt she had to.  I appreciated that.  I think the FO has shown the tendency to do 'right' by Lukes, signed as the 'we will give you time in the bigs as the infrequently used 26th guy when possible' guy. 

Sorry for the tangent!  I grew up a Billy Bragg / Steinbeck socialist, can't shake my labour roots.  And as a fan, I'm over for those "Horowitz beat him" stories. 

19 strikeouts today by Jays pitchers is a new franchise record for a 9-inning game. The high-leverage bullpen guys have been money well spent.

One quick note that I haven't seen mentioned yet: Brendon Little is on an absolute rampage to begin the season. Even before today, he was the only pitcher in the majors to have a contact rate below 50% at 47.5%. Today, the Braves failed to put wood on anything from Little (six swings-and-misses), so that number is going to tumble even further. If Little can keep even a fraction of his new bat-missing ability going forward, he could be a big weapon in the back of the bullpen.

He's throwing very little in the strike zone, but batters are chasing at a high rate. I don't know whether this is a new approach or whether he's just been wild, but whichever is the case, he's been very effective.

11-8 is a strong start to the season, especially considering the good teams they've faced.

Good pitching staff management by Schneider today.

I think the team could use one more middle-order bat (as we discussed in the off-season; the two guys we talked about a lot this winter, Bregman and Alonso, have posted wRC+ of 161 and 227 so far this season).

The rotation looks great and the bullpen has been good as well. Hopefully Swanson comes back strong fairly soon, and maybe Scherzer as well eventually.

Just keep playing good baseball and then look to add a big bat before the trade deadline.

If the difference between two guys is marginal

Except the choice isn't really between Straw and Lukes. It's between Roden and Lukes, deciding which will be the LH backup outfielder. Straw is a different type of player who brings different things - speed, elite defense.

Great win. 11-8 is a good place to be right now. Obviously, pitching will regress but hitting will get better so hopefully than cancels out. Gabriel is right about Little. He looks amazing and he could be a key to the pen this year.

Looking at the leaderboards, Bassitt is likely to have the highest fWAR after today, and may equal Hunter Greene for rWAR - if not, he'll be second. In just about every category he's close to the top. It's been an incredible start to the season for him.

nice nice nice.

the SP will inevitably cool down but the power bats should start powering so it should balance out.

And i continue to enjoy the general approach and style of our basenball this year. I think something has changed here.

Would you do a Bo extension, maybe for 10/$250-300m? It would be pretty cool to lock him up as a legacy player along with Vladdy. But maybe he envisions a bigger contract for himself.

I would not - his offensive skill set is more reliant on his outstanding ability to get the barrel to the ball compared to Vlad's more balanced skills; as a result, I think his offensive ability is more vulnerable to the effects of age. I also think he's more vulnerable to declining defensive value - he could easily be a bad defensive 3B midway through a ten year contract.

Wouldn't do close to that for Bo both for the reasons Gabriel mentioned but also because I have no idea who he is as a player right now. Is he a 125 wrc+ guy with passable D. A 71 WRC+ guy? A 110 with poor D? I wouldn't want to invest that much based on how a player looked 3 years ago and I just don't know who he is right now or have any idea how he'd be in a year or two. Also, Adames signed for 7/$182 and he's a better and much safer player. I have no idea what Bo would get on open market now but I imagine it would be incentive heavy and nowhere near 10 years or $250M.

Re: Bo extension

I would be more open to paying more per year and taking less term. I would think something like $175/5. That’s an annual of $35M and reduces the risk with Bo rapidly aging. That’ll take him to age 33 where he could still get a 3-5 year deal.

Adames is an interesting comp, but he’s 2.5 years older than Bichette. For that reason, I think teams are going to have to pay more for Bo (assuming he reverts to being a 4-5 WAR player this year).

I also think Bo is too young and coveted to have to settle for a five-year deal. If he’s very good again this year, I think he’ll be able to get a longer-term contract. And at some point, it makes sense to extend the term and pay less in AAV, as the Blue Jays did with Vladdy, for luxury tax purposes.

If Nimmala has a strong season offensively and defensively, there will be less incentive to extend Bo long-term, as there will be a viable internal candidate to take over at SS before long.

While neither Kasevich or Leo Jimenez is Bo, I absolutely do think they may feel they have enough internal options for the position (especially if, as you say, Nimmala is looking good, or they draft another SS in the 1st round). You can't count your baby blue jays before they hatch, but I just struggle to see the Jays committing a ton to Bo given their other contracts, and the likely need to keep pumping money into solidifying an aging rotation.

There were 39 SS with at least 300 PAs last year and Bo was 39th in WAR. From 2023-2025, there have been 19 SS with at least 1000 PAs. Bo has been 18th in value. Nobody is giving him $35M a year right now and nobody is giving him a long term contract. The reality is that we don't know who Bo is as a player right now. Maybe it changes over the course of the year but IMO Jays would be insane to sign him to a massive deal. There's always risk with players but there's rarely "this player we're giving $300M to might not be any good".

Adames is off to a tough start this year, 67 wRC+ with subpar defense. It’s early, of course.

Off-topic but “Luis Gil is delaying the beginning of his throwing program because his strained right lat is healing slowly” — per ESPN.

It will be interesting to see what the AL East looks like in a month or two.

I think Bo is back to normal now. Would be a neat trick to sign him before everyone agrees about that tho.

One thing to like about him is that i'm pretty sure he's improved himself into a solid defensive SS now.

Jim Bowden suggested something similar before the season started. He recommended betting on a bounceback season from Bo and offering him something like $175m before the start of the season.

I could somewhere in the 6/150 to 7/200 range for Bo.

About top front offices, it isn't too surprising that Toronto doesn't get votes for a top 5 front office, since they are probably about 12th best front office so even rose colored glasses would have them late top 10, not top 5. The bit that is surprising is other similar peer front offices getting votes, as Toronto isn't a bottom 5 or 6 or whatever front office, which is what is suggested if you just go by votes. But if there are polarizing front offices that some think are horrible and others great they'll possibly get votes in that top 5 poll while a solidly consensus average/average+ front office will not get top 5 votes. If you asked the same voters to rank front offices from 1 to 30 I doubt the Jays would end up in the bottom 5 or 6 that way, and similarly if you asked for the worst 5 front offices in baseball I doubt the Jays would get many votes.

On SS, if you do a small set of seasons you over-weight Bo's horrible last season which undervalues him. If you do all SS since 2020, Bo is 1th in fWAR at 14.9 and in terms of batting he's 9th at 51.4 10-15 runs behind the 5 above him (Henderson, Correa, Bogarts, Lindor, Witt who are between 65.1 and 69.4) but a solid 15 runs ahead of 10th Adames at 35.1. And note that WAR list he's 11th in counts Hoerner and Tatis Jr as SS even though they are at 2nd and OF respectively, so that's in his favor. Also most of the list is older other than Hoerner (same age), Tatis (1 year younger) and Witt (3 years younger). Bo's been worth about $120M in FA money for his last 4.5 years (.5 because of covid season, this counts his horrible last year in this range, he was worth about $116M for just 2020-2023 which is 6th for that range). So I think about $30/year seems pretty safe if you are talking about 5-6 years. Maybe a bit more if you are talking about 3-5, and a bit less if you are going 8-10. So 9/250 or 10/250 isn't totally unreasonable. I'm not sure that 5/150 or 6/180 gets it done, but I think that would be pretty happy. Maybe 7/200? Adames is 2.5 years older than Bo (so would be 1.5 years older at free agency) and signed the 7/182, and Adames is not as good a hitter as Bo but a better fielder for about the same total value. Between an extra year of inflation and Bo being 1.5 years younger I think Bo should get more than Adames, so around 7/195 doesn't seem that far off the mark. If you are the Jays would you rather have Bo on a 5/150, 7/200, or 10/250 contract?

Why assume the opposite? I'm comfortable with either set of assumptions. The Athletic, nor the opinions of anonymous reviewers are not gospel.

Why assume the opposite?

Because I have a baseline respect for quality journalism. I assume The Athletic came up with a sample of mostly credible survey respondents.

What happened to Kevin Barker yesterday? Anyone know?

Barker has been away since the weekend. His mother passed away. Blair said yesterday that Barker would be back today for Blair and Barker

Jomboy Media has released his analysis of the Vladdy tag-up controversy in Baltimore and it is worth watching.

https://youtu.be/p4vWPddJRH0?si=KgGwZpb9lmrc-y1r

If Bo is willing to sign any contract for $200 or less, you do that. But he won't. If he has a healthy year that looks anything like the ones he's had other than 2024, he's a virtual lock to receive $300m from someone. If he'd do $300 for 10 years, I'd probably do that right now too.

I don't see any team in MLB (other than maybe the Jays given what they gave Vlad) giving Bo $300M even if he has a 2019-23 type of season. The big market teams except the Dodgers (who let a better player in Seager go at age 27) are set at SS, and if Bo were to shift to 2B to open up his market, then his value from a financial standpoint likely diminishes as well. Bo's best chance to cash out is to leverage teams against each other, but I don't see how that happens when the need isn't there for the teams most likely to spend that type of money.

I think the Jays overpaid on the Vlad contract, but realistically, if Vlad put up another 5-6 WAR season in 2025 and entered the market right after, then I think $500M is more or less what he would have gotten (possibly more). There would have been more of a market for his services, his ceiling as an offensive player is a lot higher, and he's a bigger name in the sport. I think letting Bo test the market would be the right call here. It seemed very clear that Rogers was involved in the Vlad negotiations. Rogers likely viewed Vlad as a "we can't lose him" player. I don't think they'd view Bo in the same light, but I guess we will see. A strong 2025 finish plus maybe a playoff appearance could heighten their interest in keeping the Vlad/Bo core together.

Fair enough, you do you, I have had my scientific work go through the "quality journalism" filter before, and have become generally skeptical.

One should always be skeptical of unnamed sources or those close to them; we learned this during the last time the person in the White House was in office.

Sure, rating baseball FO isn't as important as political journalism is. Unlike science journalists, baseball journalists are experts in their field (but see the BWAA). Still, I would assert that they're likely not "in the know" about the network of relationships among each of their interviewees and all of the other 30 FOs.

It's not the journalist's fault that they are lucky to get the sample of people that they get. In the jargon, it is known as a convenience sample, not a representative random sample.

Additionally, perhaps this was not clear in my initial comment, as you quite rightly pointed out that it rests on a certain premise, which you are, of course, free to reject. However, I also assume that S-A runs an inscrutable and annoying FO office together.

I am basing that on secondhand info -- I supervised the son of one of the "old grouchy scouts" depicted in Moneyball, who is a friend of Billy Beane, and my gut from seeing them operate for the last decade.

Lastly, I no longer consider The Athletic to be quality journalism, as they have cut so many beat reporters since their heyday.

Davis Schneider has been optioned to Buffalo.

I thought Wagner might be the Lukes move. And Schneider or Lukes would be the Varsho move so I'm not shocked. But the bench feels very lefty heavy.

Four starts into the season, Chris Bassitt is leading the majors in both ERA and FIP among qualified pitchers. He's second in WAR both for Fangraphs and B-R to Hunter Greene by the slimmest of margins.

Schneider is already in Buffalo and in the lineup at 2B tonight. He must have been told after yesterdays game.

Schneider going down made most sense to me both for team fit and for his own sake.

I thought his spring was exciting but that fizzled quick. If he's ever going to bounce back he needs lots of reps. Still think he can do it but no shocker if he doesn't.

Meanwhile, he doesn't bring any defensive value to the team.

It's now a battle between Barger and Wagner to keep a spot when Varsho comes back....and that's not just about hitting but also about whether the front office thinks either of them can handle 3B defensively.

Starters

* Guererro R
* Bichette R
* Springer R
* Kirk R

* Santander S

* Varsho L
* Gimenez L
* Roden L
* Wagner L / Barger L



Bench

* Lukes L

* Heineman S

* Clement R
* Straw R


Straw's not automatic yet tho. But i'll admit he's not just produced but looks good doing it. He definitely won't be going down when Varsho comes back.

Straw is the perfect 26th man.

Jays still need a solid RHB, but don't see one appearing anytime soon.

Loved that video of Vlad's baserunning - I didn't think he would've left early, he makes baserunning mistakes but not that type of one, more overestimating his ability to run. Annoying no coach seemed to have his back.

As to the bench - generally I like having guys with individual skills that are high (ie: high speed, high defense, or able to hit a certain type of pitcher well) more than R/L balance. I fall into the R/L thing as it is damn easy to, but some guys hit junk ball pitchers well, some hit fastball pitchers well, etc. and ideally you have those on the bench - no idea if any of the kids are good at that, but I like having Straw/Lukes on the bench as both are older and understand their current role. Kids like Schneider, Roden, Wagner, and Barger aren't ready for that - they need regular playing time. The Wagner/Clement mix at 3B seems OK, but if Barger can outhit and/or outfield Wagner then he might be a better fit. Roden is getting regular reps in the corners/DH. But once Varsho is back things get very crowded. Ideally you'd only have one of Lukes/Straw on the bench if you are keeping Roden up at that point. A good utility infielder would be nice, or finding a really good 3B to play everyday. Nolan Arenado though is the only really solid 3B who is on the market but he has a no-trade clause and appears uninterested in moving. There really isn't much out there for 3B otherwise unless you are willing to move Vlad there and find a solid power hitting 1B instead (seriously doubt that is going to happen).

Guessing we are hoping for Barger or Wagner to find their stroke, or Clement to keep up whatever was going on in his 4 hit game. Guess I can see why the Jays have been trying Riley Tirotta at 3B a bit (4 out of 8 games there) as he has a solid 304/385/478 line but I fear his D at 3B would match Vlad's. Orelvis isn't the answer this season as he is 2 for 28 so far (single & HR). In AA McAdoo has been the main 3B and has a 472 OPS (ugh). Michael Stefanic has been solid at SS and is a utility guy with ML experience (783 OPS so far in AAA but just a 69 OPS+ in the majors over 264 PA).

So I'm guessing the Jays will see if Barger or Wagner can hit with Clement continuing to get his reps in too. Sadly there isn't much out there for 3B. The 2 kids we hoped would be ready for 2026 to be everyday guys are hurt (Leo Jimenez & Josh Kasevich) thus keeping them away too (not sure if either has the arm for 3B).

I can see the rationale for not challenging the call - there was no view. I find it funny that in a field where each square inch is covered by radar and they can monitor Varsho's "impossible" catches and spin rate so accurately that there was no way to determine if a guy tagged up.

That said, why didn't the manager tear a strip off the Ump for listening to the catcher instead of using his eyes or asking another ump? Ie. why not go get tossed to stick up for your guy?

The good news for the upcoming Seattle series is that the M's had to empty their bullpen today in beating the Reds 11-7 in extras.

The bad news is that Cal Raleigh hit his eighth home run in the game. Are the Blue Jays going to pitch to him in key situations in the series? His career slash line against the Blue Jays is .277/.324/.708 with 9 home runs in 71 PA.

https://x.com/Jomboy_/status/1912672322546282922?s=19

Thanks, UO, interesting short video analysis. It certainly doesn’t make Schneider and the rest of the Blue Jays coaching staff look very observant. And it suggests that Vladdy’s baseball IQ is higher than people give him credit for.