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Last week we found plenty of topics to kick off the first week of the winter, winter being that time of the year when baseball is not played. This week threatens to be a quiet week on the baseball front but who knows? Award season doesn't start until next week so baseball news will have to be generated by the general managers.

The general managers meet next week in Milwaukee and that might get trading season going. But more likely those meetings will set the stage for the winter meetings in December.

The free agent season started last week with the expressions of interest stage. There is a deadline on November 23rd where teams have to offer arbitration to their free agents. For those at the top or bottom of the lists the deadline is meaningless but for those type A's in the middle of the wish-lists the deadline could impact their fate. If a team offers arbitration then the cost of signing them goes up, sometime prohibitively. If no offer is made then they are a true free agent.

The Jays have one type A, Kelly Johnson, and four type B's, Frank Francisco; Shawn Camp; Jon Rauch; and Jose Molina. The Jays will offer arb to Johnson; Francisco and Camp. The offers to Rauch and Molina are on the fence at the moment.

There was much discussion last week about free agents. ESPN's Jim Bowden, former GM himself, estimated how mcuh each fre agent would get. Here are the summary numbers:

Prince Fielder - 8 years, $24M average annual value (AAV)

Jose Reyes - 6 years, $18M AAV

Mark Buehrle - 4 years, $16M

CJ Wilson - 5 years, $15M

Jonathan Papelbon - 4 years, $13M

Jimmy Rollins - 3 years, $13M

David Ortiz - 2 years, $12.5M

Edwin Jackson - 3 years, $10M

Roy Oswalt - 1 year, $10M

Kelly Johnson - 2 years, $4M

Frank Francisco - 2 years, $3.75M

Last week the Jays brought back Edwin Encarnacion and Trystan Magnuson and said goodbye, for now, to Adam Loewen and Jesse Carlson.

So what's going on? Maybe this week we can finally leave the Napoli, Francisco trade in the past.

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raptorsaddict - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 07:42 AM EST (#246456) #
Based on his relatively excellent season, I figured Molina would be a definite yes on offering arbitration, as the odds of someone else wanting to sign him would presumably have increased. I was also hoping Rauch and the Jays would have a little "wink-wink, nudge-nudge" deal to have him decline.

Oh, and I also wanted to put forth my support for your suggestion that there be a "transaction posterity" page created so we'll know exactly what our initial impressions were.
raptorsaddict - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 07:46 AM EST (#246457) #
Two other things. First, that seems like a bit too much for Buehrle, doesn't it? I could see 3 years at 15, maybe. But 4 at 16? Let's just say I really hope the Sox or Yankees sign him to that deal.

Second, if you could get Johnson for 2 years at 4 per, you've got to do it. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him resign for 2 years at 6 per, and would be OK with the deal even at that price. We need someone to play 2b for at least this year, and possibly next, and you could do worse than him as a short term fill in.

Richard S.S. - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 08:16 AM EST (#246458) #

Toronto needs 2B filled with quality throughout the Major and Minors, because Ryan Schimpf (2009 - 5th round ) is pretty much it.  Brandon Mims (2010 - 9th round - since released ), Matt Abrahams (2010 - 49th round ) and Jonathan Berti (2011 - 18th round ) make up our most recent picks.   A.A.'s draft policies of picking the best athelete available means a lot of ShortStops get drafted, 8 in just 2011.   So unless a SS switches to 2B, we might continue to have a drought here.  One year stop-gaps for 2B is not enough.  We are beyond this point in team progress.  Signing Kelly Johnson 3 years $18.0 -$20.0 Million is fine by me, after all, he's not blocking anyone.  Unless you can find someone better by trade, you might as well go with Johnson.   Anyone with Mike McCoy as your first or second backup, in depth, is in trouble for not finding better.

At 3B, we have a Stud in Brett Lawrie.   And while third base talent has more upside, Matt Dean, Kellen Sweeney And Gabriel Cenas are 3 or more years away.   Bautista and Encarnacion should not be the first or second choice for Backup.  We need to do better.  We could use a SS switching to 3B also.

Martin Prado, Atlanta might be a decent choice as 2B.  He can play 2B, 3B and LF.  A.A. needs to decide if the price is right.

Oh, and at SS, we have, in no order: Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, DJ Thon JR, Dewal Lugo, Gustavo Pierre, Jorge Vega-Rosado, Ryan Goins, Andrew Burns, Shane Optiz and Jon Diaz to name a few.

Original Ryan - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 11:44 AM EST (#246460) #
A.A.'s draft policies of picking the best athelete available means a lot of ShortStops get drafted, 8 in just 2011.   So unless a SS switches to 2B, we might continue to have a drought here.

All teams load up on shortstops in the draft with the intention of moving some of them to other positions. I don't know what the actual numbers would be, but it wouldn't shock me if a majority of current major league second and third basemen were shortstops at one time. Both Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson were shortstops previously. Even Matt Stairs was a shortstop back in the day. It's safe to assume that a few of the shortstops you listed will be playing elsewhere on the diamond within a few years.

Chuck - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 12:14 PM EST (#246461) #

ESPN's Jim Bowden, former GM himself, estimated how mcuh each fre agent would get. Here are the summary numbers:

When listening to anything Bowden says, bear in mind that he authored this little gem. Yes, OPSBIs as a metric. His facility with numbers is, hmmm, less than outstanding.

PeteMoss - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 12:15 PM EST (#246462) #
I wonder if they'll be any interest in Yoenis Cespedes, the Cuban who's about to become a free agent. Allegedly he's the best hitter to come out of there in a generation. He's a CF where the Jays do already have Rasmus and then Gose in the minors.. but he does fit the 'go after the best players available' model the Jays have preached.
sam - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 12:30 PM EST (#246463) #
Speaking of Cespedes, check out this little vid posted by his handlers. Gotta be one of the more bizarre things I've ever seen of a baseball prospect.
Lylemcr - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 12:56 PM EST (#246464) #

What about getting David Wright and moving Lawrie to 2nd?  (Assuming at 28, he isn't washed up).  He would cost 15 million next year and 16 million in 2013 (with a 1 million buyout). 

His value is at an all-time low.  If you could get him for simular value to the Escobar trade, would you do it?  (example: Dickie Thon, Chad Jenkins, Cooper, and Carlos Perez)  Or maybe the Mets would be interested in Lind?  Etc etc. 

I think I would.  I hear he is a good clubhouse guy and is only one year removed from 29 HR, 100RBI and 280 average on a very bad club.

sam - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 12:57 PM EST (#246465) #
I hoping this post spurs others to write their perfect Jays offseason, but here is mine.

Jays sign Jose Reyes to 5 year 80 million contract
Jays trade Yunel Escobar, Travis Snider, Brett Cecil, and Deck MacGuire for Joey Votto
Jays sign Yu Darvish to 5 year 65 million contract with a posting fee of 50 million
Jays sign Joe Nathan
Jays re-sign Kelly Johnson
Jays sign Ryan Madson

Yes, it's ridiculous, but that's my perfect offseason.
China fan - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 01:12 PM EST (#246466) #
The Cespedes promotional video is pretty interesting.  What a hot dog.  He makes Yunel Escobar look positively restrained in comparison. 
zeppelinkm - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 01:16 PM EST (#246468) #
He's got some really terrible form in some of the exercise related shots.  Especially the leg press.
Gerry - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 01:24 PM EST (#246469) #
We have a trade.  The Royals have traded Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez and a minor leaguer.
China fan - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 01:24 PM EST (#246470) #

After seeing his 45-inch standing jump and his behind-the-back circus catch in the outfield, I fully expected the next scene to show him jumping over a car, like Joey Gathright.

He also has a tendency to stand and admire his moon shots for a LONG time before he begins his home-run trot.

Gerry - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 01:40 PM EST (#246471) #

A tweet from Buster Olney:

The Blue Jays are taking a very aggressive approach in looking for a closer.  Wouldn't be a shock if they landed one of the best guys.

John Northey - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 01:41 PM EST (#246472) #
I think lots will wait until we know what is going on with Yu Darvish. Matsuzaka was resolved on November 14th, Ichiro was in November as were a few others. However, there is no hard and fast rule on it so it largely depends on when/if his current team puts him up. If they are smart they'll do it ASAP imo to ensure as many teams wanting pitchers will be able to bid (once free agents are signed then demand will go down).
SK in NJ - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 02:15 PM EST (#246473) #

Yu Darvish or bust.

Won't cost a pick, the cheapos that own this team will make some money back on the investment over time, and the Jays get a player who can contribute right away with impact potential. Benefits everyone involved.

Make it happen.


smcs - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 02:24 PM EST (#246474) #

A tweet from Buster Olney:

When was the last Jays move that any scribe predicted? This front office seems to have quite the cone of silence surrounding it.

zeppelinkm - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 02:28 PM EST (#246475) #

Milky Cabrera for J Sanchez + a throw in? Do the Giants have some depth relief pitcher who also goes by J Sanchez that I am unfamiliar with?

whiterasta80 - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 02:48 PM EST (#246476) #

My perfect offseason. Well, one that focuses on Prince Fielder+ guys who will be undervalued IMO.

1. Sign Prince Fielder. Don't go beyond 7 yrs.

2. Sign Clint Barmes 3 years 

3. Trade Adam Lind , Brett Cecil, and Chad Jenkins for Wandy Rodriguez

4. Trade Eric Thames, Rajaj Davis, Carlos Perez and Deck McGuire for Johan Santana. (He's already shown he can come back from surgery and the Mets would love to get him off their payroll)

5. Re-sign Jose Molina

6. Sign Francisco Cordero (once everyone else has blown money on the big name closers)

7. Promote Jon Diaz as the utility guy just so I can watch him play defense.

8. Sign Kosuke Fukudome as a 4th OF, DH type guy. (I really think his on base skills are underrated and he'll sneak past teams in this market)

9. Sign Mike Gonzalez as a lefty setup guy and handcuff for Cordero

whiterasta80 - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 02:50 PM EST (#246477) #
Agreed on the Jonathan Sanchez deal.  We should have found a way to be in on that.
Mylegacy - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 02:53 PM EST (#246478) #
The secret is now out...

Deep in a bunker - hundreds of feet below the frozen turf of the Rogers Center, AA (the Silent Assassin) listens to Tony speak; "Mien Chief,  ve can own Cuba! Ve get Cepedes in CF, Hechaverria at SS and Escobar at 2nd! Ve will be Cuban up the middle!" The room sits in stunned silence. AA looks over towards Tony and whispers - "Make it so."

The room erupts - "SILENCE" AA yells...then after a pregnant pause he stands up and shouts, "AND - YU know vot ve do next!" His followers erupt - shouting, "Tora, Tora, Tora!"

The camera pans back to the surface where old women dressed in Russian winter coats are using brooms to sweep the snow that is blowing across the quiet field. The camera slowly goes black to the theme music from "Dr Zhivago."

braden - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 02:59 PM EST (#246479) #
Agreed that the price on Sanchez seems a little low but I'm not sure I would want any part of him. He walks everybody, gives up a lot of homers and got pretty lucky in his breakout year. He'd make Morrow look consistent.
Mike Green - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 03:01 PM EST (#246480) #
Bowden and fangraphs crowd-sourcing agree about Edwin Jackson at $30 million for 3.  That sounds about right.  If Buehrle and Wilson are demanding long contracts which the organization cannot live with, there is another possibility. 
China fan - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 03:23 PM EST (#246482) #

Shi Davidi is tweeting that the Jays are retaining all of their coaching staff, with the exception of Pete Walker becoming the bullpen coach to replace Pat Hentgen, who is quitting for family reasons.

So much for the rumor that the Jays were ready to dump Dwayne Murphy. 

China fan - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 03:43 PM EST (#246483) #
Jeff Passan tweets:   "The full list of Yoenis Cespedes suitors from @TBrownYahoo: Yankees, Phillies, Marlins, Blue Jays, Giants, Nationals, Indians, A's, Pirates."
92-93 - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 03:44 PM EST (#246484) #
Sanchez would get destroyed in the AL East. I'm not sure he's even worth an Eric Thames. May have been a nice LOOGY though.
whiterasta80 - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 03:47 PM EST (#246485) #
I guess I've just seen Sanchez at his best. But then I guess you could catch Morrow on one of those days and start thinking about potential too.  Still, I think that the Royals have to be pretty happy with that deal.
Mike Forbes - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 03:52 PM EST (#246486) #

Alright, everyone else has done the projected 2012 roster. So, why not me?

C - J.P. Arencibia
1B - Adam Lind
2b - Martin Prado
SS Escobar
Brett Lawrie
LF - Josh Willingham
CF - Colby Rasmus
RF - Jose Bautista
DH - Edwin Encarnacion

C - Chris Snyder
OF - Rajai Davis
UTIL - Ronnie Cedeno
OF - Travis Snider

1 - Ricky Romero
2 - Yu Darvish
3 - Brandon Morrow
4 - Henderson Alverez
5 - Brett Cecil

CL - Huston Street
SU - Casey Janssen
SU - Joel Zumaya 
MR - Jesse Litsch
MR - Joel Carreno
LOOGY -Luis Perez? (clueless here)
LR - Carlos Villaneuva

Rational behind/deal for Prado:
Solid hitter and a consumate professional that can play numerous positions. A bit unsure of how good he is defensively at second. Traded Eric Thames straight up for him as Atlanta wants a power hitting outfielder.

Rational behind Willingham:
One of the most underrated power hitters in all of baseball. Played in pitchers parks his whole prime. Okay on defense for now. Can plat first if Lind is dealt (opening up a spot for Snider). Three years and 24 million might do it without breaking the bank.

Snyder and Cedeno:
Snyder has long been a target of the Jays. Remember when they had a deal for him with the D-backs only to have it fall through, Solid two way catcher. Cedeno is an incredible glove at both short and second. May or may not own a bat. Remind you of anyone?

Yu Darvish:
He's Yu Darvish, you all know who he is. What it is going to cost is irrelevant to me. No pick given up for a potential ace is a win.

Huston Street:
Colorado is looking to unload his salary. Won't cost much and has a proven track record. Still only 28. Perfect buy low canidate.

Joel Zumaya:
Reclaimation project. Can't stay healthy lately. Dominate if he is. Worth a flier if he'll leave Detroit.

Feel free to give suggestions, laugh at me etc. Just my thoughts.

The_Game - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 04:11 PM EST (#246487) #
Instead of overpaying Darvish, let's get Cespedes for a fraction of the price.
greenfrog - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 04:30 PM EST (#246488) #
Two questions about Prado: (1) why did his stats drop off so precipitously at age 27 (OPS almost 100 points below his career average, and well over 100 points below his three-year rolling average), and (2) why do the Braves want to get rid of him?
John Northey - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 04:37 PM EST (#246489) #
There is a reason Cespedes will be a fraction of Darvish's cost... he isn't as good (most likely).

A very young starting pitcher, proven in a league that is viewed as AAA+, or an outfielder who has played at a level similar to A ball and dominated but whose age is in question.

Now, perfect world, the Jays get both. Hey, it is just money and not mine :)
The_Game - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 04:45 PM EST (#246490) #
Cespedes' swag, though, more than makes up for the difference in talent (assuming there is any difference at all).
92-93 - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 04:59 PM EST (#246492) #
The difference is the posting fee, and that Darvish will make over 6m in Japan if he stays.
Mike Green - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 05:14 PM EST (#246493) #
Prado hit fewer line drives than usual and consequently had a BABIP 70 points lower than in the last three years.  It's a bit of a puzzle.  He does not miss when he swings at pitches in the zone (contact rate over 95%), and he has some power.  Last year, he swung at more pitches outside the zone, and I don't see how that benefits him.  If it were a pitch recognition/eyesight problem, you would think that he would have problems maintaining the 95% contact rate.  It might be an approach issue or perhaps it is a vision issue which still allows him to make contact within the zone because of superior hand-eye co-ordination. Or maybe he just had nagging injuries which diminished his effectiveness at a low level. 

He is a good bet to bounce back though.  I like players who make as much contact as he does and who have medium range pop. 

Glevin - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 05:50 PM EST (#246494) #
Prado seems like a good buy-low candidate. Buerhle will be a good pitcher in the NL but is way too hittable for the AL East. I don't fancy the aggressive move for a closer unless the Jays have other moves lined up. An established closer should be the last piece of the puzzle IMO.
sam - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 06:09 PM EST (#246495) #
How on earth are the Marlins going to afford Jose Reyes, Fielder, or Pujols. I mean I get that they're moving into a new stadium and they have new ugly uniforms (seriously, check them out), but do they honestly expect an average of 15,000 more people a game? And do they not have guys approaching arbitration that they'll have to pay more. I just don't get it.
85bluejay - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 06:31 PM EST (#246496) #
 Yoenis Cespedes will likely play next year in the ML given he's 27 and this may prove a problem for the Jays - If Cespedes wants to become a US citizen then he has to spend a certain amount of time without leaving the country - if he signs with another team he would only have to miss any games played in TO (as Alexi Ramirez did in his 1st year) -if he's with the Jays ML team then he has to delay his US citizen application. 
John Northey - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 06:55 PM EST (#246498) #
iirc the Marlins had a historically horrible lease due to their old owner owning both the stadium and team - he made the lease terrible for the team so he could keep making money after selling it. Now they have a new park and new lease thus far more revenue coming in, even if their attendance stays the same.

Of course, that could be old info and out of date.
dan gordon - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 10:44 PM EST (#246499) #

I've been saying all along the Giants would try to trade a pitcher, likely either Sanchez or Bumgarner for some hitting.  Interesting deal they made for Cabrera.  Both guys are free agents after 2012, so it's not like either team is giving up a significant long term asset.  Cabrera just turned 27, 3 months ago - he's been in the big leagues a long time, and may have just reached his potential in his age 26/27 season.  Quite a year - a decent defensive outfielder, hitting .305 with 18 HR's, 44 doubles, 5 triples, 87 RBI's, 102 runs scored and 20 steals.  Doesn't walk much, but still, that was good enough for an OPS over .800.  He immediately becomes the Giants' best hitting outfielder and probably the 3rd best hitter on the team behind Sandoval and Posey, unless Brandon Belt really develops quickly.  He put up good defensive numbers with the Yankees a few years back, but he must have lost some speed, as his numbers in CF for KC were poor last year.  His SB % took a hit, too.  I would imagine the Giants would play him in left and Torres in centre. 

Sanchez is almost 2 years older than Cabrera, but has electric stuff, and gets a lot of K's.  His 2010 was a terrific season, but he slipped back last year as he battled injuries.  As mentioned earlier, he needs to get his control problems figured out.  He has always walked too many, and he may never be able to fix that problem.

Interest article on Slam sports today indicating the Marlins are looking to make a splash as they move into a new stadium, and are taking a serious run at signing Jose Reyes, AND either Fielder or Pujols.  Hanley Ramirez has apparently agreed to move to another position, and Reyes would take over at SS.

TamRa - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 10:50 PM EST (#246500) #
Repeating myself:

deal for Prado (don't overpay)
Sign Darvish, Nathan, J. Hairston, and any one of 3 or 4 options for reserve catcher.

Take a run at Bedard (listed separately because he's not as important as Darvish and Nathan)

Listen to offers for players you can afford to deal (Cooper, Jenkins, etc - in Fact - Jenkins would be a good player to start with in going after Prado)

Result, at best:
Romero, Darvish, Bedard, Morrow, Alvarez (Drabek?)
Nathan, Janssen, Cecil, Listch, Perez, Villianueva, Carreno

Esco, Rasmus, Bautista, EE, Lind, Lawrie, Snider(Thames?), Arencibia, Prado

(Lind is still higher than I'd like but until Snider earns it, you have to break up the lefties)

I'm perfectly fine going to war with that group.

Jonny German - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 11:48 PM EST (#246501) #
If Lind and Encarnacion are both in the opening day lineup I will probably count AA's offseason as a miss. I'd like EE as the RH DH and Bench Bat, and I'd like Lind gone. Logan Morrison seems like a prime AA target.

Granted I seem to be in a very small minority believing as I do in Eric Thames. I have no problem with him being the primary left fielder or DH. And I'm not sure I'm ready to give up on Snider.
Magpie - Monday, November 07 2011 @ 11:58 PM EST (#246502) #
Meh. Nobody knows anything. Me, I'm watching the English Premier League, and for the first time in living memory I can say with some conviction:

How about those Magpies?
TamRa - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 12:38 AM EST (#246503) #
amending my previous brain cramp:

Result, at best:
Romero, Darvish, Bedard, Morrow,  McGowan, Alvarez (Drabek?)
Nathan, Janssen, Cecil, Listch, Perez, Villianueva, Carreno

Esco, Rasmus, Bautista, EE, Lind, Lawrie, Snider(Thames?), Arencibia, Prado

And yes, I could be persueded to add LoMo, but I was trying to keep it simple.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 04:37 AM EST (#246504) #

...  I don't fancy the aggressive move for a closer unless the Jays have other moves lined up. An established closer should be the last piece of the puzzle IMO.

WRONG!   Without a good Bullpen (see Postseason 2011), it doesn't matter how good your starting staff is, you're pooched.  With Bautista, Rasmus, Escobar, Lawrie, Arencibia, Romero, and Lind, Davis, Encarnacion, Morrow, Litsch. Janssen, Villanueva as a core group, filling the holes is what`s needed now.

1) This team needs a top 2B, somewhere in this organization (see and ). 

2) We need a top-of-the-rotation Starter (a 1, or a 1A, or a 1B, or a 2, or a 2A, see ).  As good as, or better than Romero, or, at least as good as, or better than Morrow.  Number 4 and 5 staters will be in-house (let the kids play). 

3) We need a lot of help in the Bullpen, including a bona fide Closer, A.A.'s words.  Whether it be Trade or Free Agency, A.A. will get it done.    ?  /  '  "  $  (  )

4) We need a quality backup Catcher (see ).

5) We need a quality middle-infielder to backup 2B and SS (see and ).

All these decisions will be made for this upcoming year.  The extra Wild Card and any Realignment will be occurring in 2013, means the major moves needed happen now.  

The Rotation, with Romero, new acqusition Starter, Morrow, In-house, In-house; and the Bullpen, with new acquistion Closer, possible new acquisition Reliever, Litsch, Janssen, Villanueva, In-house, In-house (7th Reliever - optional); will pitch in 2012.   If, after the 2012 season, help is needed or a hole exists, it will be corrected.   The Outfield, with Bautista, Rasmus, Davis, In-house; and the Infield, with Lind, new acqusition 2B, Escobar, Lawrie, Arencibia, Encarnacion; and the Bench with Teahen, new acqusition/ In-house backup Catcher, new acqusition / In-house Middle-infielder, (extra bench - optional); will play in 2012.   If, after the 2012 season, help is needed or a hole exists, it will be corrected.

The team entering the 2013 season should be playing in the Postseason.  Sometime during that year the minors will be delivering the steady supply A.A. forecasted.  Those in AAA in 2011 are available for 2012.  Those starting 2012 in  AAA could be available in 2012 or 2013.  Those starting 2012 in AA  could be available in 2013, or earlier.  Those starting A+ in 2012 should be in AA or AAA in 2013. Those in A in 2012 should be in A+, or AA in 2013.   In June 2012, another draft class arrives; in June 2013, another draft class arrives.  As long as A.A. is GM, nothing is missed. 

Thomas - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 05:30 AM EST (#246505) #
How about those Magpies?

Their next three games will be quite tough. They could emerge from that stretch noticeably below the pre-season Top Four/Six or they could emerge ready to make a bona fide run at a Euro spot. It will be interesting to see how they fare, as they've not had a tough schedule so far, but they're not getting cheap victories either.

Glevin - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 07:19 AM EST (#246506) #
".. I don't fancy the aggressive move for a closer unless the Jays have other moves lined up. An established closer should be the last piece of the puzzle IMO.

WRONG! Without a good Bullpen (see Postseason 2011), it doesn't matter how good your starting staff is, you're pooched."

So, you are saying I'm wrong because the team that went into the season with Ryan Franklyn as their closer won the WS? In fact St. Louis showed how you don't have to spend on relievers. Fernando Salas who was a unremarkable reliever last year made an excellent closer for most of the year. Anyway, your objection makes no sense on another ground. The Cardinals had the 11th best bullpen ERA in the NL and were fifth best among playoff teams. To attribute the Cardinals' success to going out and spending money on an established closer (which they didn't do) and therefore having a great bullpen (which they didn't have) is just wrong.

If the Jays want to try to contend this year (they might not), they should go after a middle of the lineup hitter and a top of the rotation starter. If they get those things, they can spend money on some relievers.

Tampa handled their bullpen beautifully. They lost Soriano, Benoit, and Balfour to massive contracts (about $60 million over 8 years for those 3 guys) and they replaced them with Peralta and Farnsworth who they both gave 1 year reasonable contracts (total of 2 years $4.2 million).
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 08:26 AM EST (#246507) #
Go to this site to read about it: and go to this site to order it or more:  .   And choose Audio Selection: radio play by play (Tom Cheek and Jerry Howarth), it's much, much better than the Network Broadcasters.  It arrived in 3 business days (Delivery).
rpriske - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 09:10 AM EST (#246509) #

Reply to a couple of suggestions upthread:


4. Trade Eric Thames, Rajaj Davis, Carlos Perez and Deck McGuire for Johan Santana. (He's already shown he can come back from surgery and the Mets would love to get him off their payroll)


I wouldn't trade McGuire straight up for Santana. Think about what you ar esaying when you say 'he has already shown...'

From this point forward until the end of his career, he will spend more days ON the DL then on an active roster during a season.


8. Sign Kosuke Fukudome as a 4th OF, DH type guy. (I really think his on base skills are underrated and he'll sneak past teams in this market)


I don't think he will sneak past. He won't need to take a fourth OF deal. He may not saign with a contender but there are many teams that would pay him to start every day.

Mike Green - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 09:31 AM EST (#246510) #
Travis Snider's BBRef comps at this point in his career include Larry Hisle, George Hendrick, John Milner, Ralph Kiner, Bobby Murcer and Tommie Agee.  Hendrick is a pretty good comparison, and went on to have a fine career.  Kiner is the outlier of the group, and not really a good comparison to Snider at all.  The key point is that it is very common for a player to break out at age 24 after a year or three of so-so performance.  I haven't given up on him either, Jonny. And I am in that small minority who would like to see Thames open the season as the leftfielder.  We shall see.

ayjackson - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 09:35 AM EST (#246511) #

If the Jays want to try to contend this year (they might not), they should go after a middle of the lineup hitter and a top of the rotation starter. If they get those things, they can spend money on some relievers.

Absolutely correct.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 09:35 AM EST (#246512) #


I respectfully disagree regarding Johan Santana.  I think he'll win at least 12 games next season, more if he leaves the Mets.  And I still believe that because he throws a changeup as his out pitch he will age well.  If we buy into AA's mantra of trying to buy low on top shelf talent I don't see a better option out there.

With Fukudome I can see him getting a ML deal, heck technically we could throw him one. Either way he's a guy I'd keep an eye on. Because he signed that big deal but doesn't hit for power out of an outfield corner I think he's been underrated for a while now.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 10:26 AM EST (#246514) #

So, you are saying I'm wrong because...

NO.  I am saying you are WRONG about the Blue Jays not needing a bona fide Closer, they do need one (A.A.'s own words: TSN Article Thu 09/29/11 7:53:46 PM).  I am saying  we need 2B, Bench, Starter, Bullpen help including Closer and WE ARE DONE!   Of course, A.A. will keep looking to improve this club after doing the needed things. 

The team that starts the 2012 season, to compete for a Postseason berth, will determine A.A.`s moves next offseason for 2013.  2013, the year of realignment and the additional Wild Card berth. 

The Rotation is: Romero, New Acqusition, Morrow, Alvarez (because I think he can) and McGowan (until he can`t - no options).   Cecil and Drabek will wait for their chance.  The Bullpen is: New Acquisition (Closer), New Acquisition (Reliever), Janssen, Villanueva, Litsch, Winner 1 and Winner 2 (of Cecil, Drabek, Carreno, Beck, Perez to name a few).   This is where the hard decisions will be made.   The Batting problems will be readily apparent and present easier decision to make.

Disagreements are never attacks, just passionate responses to something we deem stupid (no offence meant).

Gerry - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 11:15 AM EST (#246516) #
Buster Olney repeats his "Jays are looking for a closer" comments in todays column.  Oakland's Andrew Bailey is directly mentioned by Olney as a good fit for an Oakland, Toronto trade.
China fan - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 12:04 PM EST (#246517) #

....I am in that small minority who would like to see Thames open the season as the leftfielder....

How is this a maverick viewpoint? Seems pretty conventional to me. He out-performed Snider in 2011 and there's no other obvious LF in the Jays system who's ready to seize the job from him. His numbers in 2011 weren't massively impressive but you have to remember that he was a 24-year-old rookie (with only 1,000 minor-league PAs) and he posted an OPS+ of 104 in his rookie season. It's not unreasonable to expect him to improve as he adjusts to the league. I doubt the Jays would trade him unless they're absolutely sure that Snider is ready to replace him -- and that's not a sure thing at all. Perhaps they could trade him next July if Snider is coming on like gangbusters. Otherwise he could be the starting LF for the whole season if he continues to improve.

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 12:20 PM EST (#246518) #
I'm not a big fan of the "save" stat and the whole thing about a capital C "Closer" and all that voodoo.  And I wouldn't want to see the Jays pay through the nose for Papelbon or someone like that.

But trading for Andrew Bailey to bolster the pen would be something I could get behind.  He definitely seems like the type of player AA would target.  I've often been impressed watching him pitch against the Jays, as well.

Gerry - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 12:31 PM EST (#246519) #

Back in the 80's I was a rabid consumer of the Bill James abstracts and I also remember Brian Johnson, a writer for the Globe and Mail, who wrote a column called inside baseball.  Johnson also communicated back and forth with James and those communications sometimes made it into the abstracts.  The Hardball Times has a great interview with Johnson today.

 I seemed to be in a constant fight with other writers, columnists, etc., both within my own paper, and versus competitors. You saw, I think, how the Toronto Sun declared Alfredo Griffin the Jays' "MVP"—after I pointed out his atrocious OBP, and pretty much demanded that the Jays bring up Tony Fernandez. That was the basic tenor of the times. The response was very negative, very hostile. New ideas seemed quite threatening to baseball writers, for reasons that weren't clear then, or now. The letters to the editor were more of a mixed bag, pro and con.

zeppelinkm - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 12:33 PM EST (#246520) #
Anyway we could augment the Bailey trade to include one B Anderson or G Gonzalez? I like the K's Gio gets, but I worry about that command in the East over a full season.  I think Anderson is just a better overall pitcher, but then again he's coming off another surgery. If it wasn't for the multiple surgeries over the past few years he'd probably be untouchable.

But both of those SP would fit AA's pattern for getting young, cost controlled players with top end talent.
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 12:38 PM EST (#246522) #
Interesting: on the one hand Olney recently commented that AA never telegraphs his moves, but now comments that AA is chasing a closer.

I think AA will go after a closer if the price is right. Since the Jays don't really have a competent closer at present (unless you count Francisco), the marginal gain from adding one could be significant.

I like Bailey, but he was worked pretty heavily in 2009 (68 appearances, 83.1 IP) and his numbers fell off a bit this year (in the second half his opponents' slash line was 243/301/388, down from his career opponents' line of 188/246/288). For what it's worth, Francisco was a lot better in the second half of 2011 than Bailey was over that stretch. So, I guess it depends on AA's assessment of Bailey's health and stuff going forward.
ayjackson - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 12:39 PM EST (#246523) #
Of the three leftfielders currently vying for the job opening day (Davis, Thames, Snider), I agree that Thames is the current favourite to start.  He also would be the leading `sell high` candidate out of the three.  It would be difficult to go into next season with 5 outfielders on the 25-man roster, none of which can play infield (except JBau, where there are obvious adversions to doing so).
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 12:41 PM EST (#246524) #
I was in an APBA NL league, which I won one year.  I faced Bryan Johnson in our World Series and went out meekly in four straight.  Smart man.  I remember him saying in 1985 or so that soon we would have elaborate batted ball data, with vector and speed off bat info.  We are getting there. 
92-93 - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 12:58 PM EST (#246525) #
What's the obvious aversion to playing Bautista in the infield? Despite what he believes he isn't a good RFer.

I must be a maverick because I'd rather Travis Snider have the starting job than Eric Thames, assuming neither distinguishes himself from the other in spring training. 2011 was supposed to be a year in which they found out what they had in Snider - maybe 2012 will finally be that year.
The_Game - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 01:14 PM EST (#246526) #
What's the obvious aversion to playing Bautista in the infield? Despite what he believes he isn't a good RFer.
If you mean 3B, he's kind of blocked by Lawrie. And his defensive numbers at 3B throughout his career are considerably worse than his RF numbers.
Jonny German - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 01:40 PM EST (#246527) #
Maybe it's not a minority view have Eric Thames as the primary left fielder or DH. But I am of the impression that it is. I hear a lot of talk of Willingham and Fukudome and Cespedes and of generally "acquiring a left fielder" and of generally trading Thames away. And I also get the impression that many think Edwin Encarnacion is actually something much more than what he's shown in his 3,000 major league plate appearances to date, and thus is higher on the depth chart than Thames as far as the DH position goes.

My "realistic" goal for the 2012 hitters on opening day is something like so:

C Arencibia
1B Logan Morrison
2B Kelly Johnson or Martin Prado
SS Escobar
3B Lawrie
LF Snider
CF Rasmus
RF Bautista
DH Thames

With the above I'd have Davis & Encarnacion as fallback / platoon options for Snider & Thames. The other 2 bench spots would be the backup catcher and a middle infielder. Lind & Teahen would be gone.

Lylemcr - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 01:56 PM EST (#246528) #

We need Bullpen help.  (Mind you, I still would like to see what McGowan does there).  We especially need some lefthanded specialists.  And don't compare signing Nathan or Papelbon to BJ Ryan.  BJ had one good year as an Oriole.  He did not deserve that money.  Papelbon and Nathan have been very consistent through the years.  Having a good bullpen could significantly change the framework of the team.  Maybe, the starter doesn't go that extra inning or a rally is snuffed out.  Etc etc

Since we are just doing this fantasy purposes

C. JPA with Molina as backup

1st - Morneau - traded for Lind and Twins eat up a majority of his contract

2nd - Kelly Johnson is retained

SS - Escobar

3rd - Lawrie

DH - BautistaEE

LF - SniderThames

CF -  Cespedes

RF - RasmusBautista

Bench - EE Someone better than McCoy and Davis

Starters - Romero, King Felix(traded Gose, McGuire, one of the young catchers and 2 other arms in AA), Morrow, Alverez and Bedard.

Bullpen - Nathan, McGowan, Villenava, Perez, solid LHP, Carreno (and room for some of the arms in AAA that need to prove themselves) 

                              (I would prefer Papelbon over Nathan, but the thought of giving the Red Sox our 1st round pick doesn't sit right)

                             - Please trade Litsch too. 

Personally, I like team speed.  Defense shows up every game.  I would love to see  Cespedes in the OF and Rasmus pushed to a corner.  Gose could be used as a trading peice to get a quality arm.  If you are going to trade the farm to get a good arm, get Felix.  A bullpen built around Nathan and McGowan is solid. 

Fun game.


Original Ryan - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 02:03 PM EST (#246529) #
A bullpen built around Nathan and McGowan is solid.

Red Green wouldn't even call that solid.

greenfrog - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 02:06 PM EST (#246530) #
I'm not sure Gose has enough value (yet) to be the centrepiece of a trade for a frontline player. Everyone knows Gose has outstanding tools and that his performance improved in 2011, but it's no secret that his hitting is a work in progress. For example, I don't think he has the value Brett Lawrie did last off-season. I guess the question is, if you trade Gose now, are you selling low or high?
James W - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 02:36 PM EST (#246531) #
BJ had one good year as an Oriole. He did not deserve that money.

B.J. Ryan had nearly identical years in 2004 and 2005. WHIP of 1.138 and 1.137, K/9 of 12.6 and 12.8, BB/9 of 3.6 and 3.3. So he either had 2 good years, or he had none. Unless you're saying the 36 saves in 2005 make it a good year, while only 3 saves in 2004 made that a bad year?

sam - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 03:09 PM EST (#246532) #
Recent quote on AA from a rival GM, "you can't pin him down, he has interests in all our players." I wonder which GM this would be?
McNulty - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 04:43 PM EST (#246534) #
Count me in the category of "get a closer IF a big bat and front-line starter are acquired first."

Predictions for the off-season?

1. Jays "go full court press" for Darvish and sign him, leaving Texas and the Yankees foiled.
2.  Trade Snider and Drabek/Cecil straight up for Gordon Beckham and Matt Thornton
3.  Sign David Ortiz for one year leaving EE and Lind to platoon at first. Thames starts year as left-fielder, with EE starting against some lefties.
4.  Re-sign Frank Fransisco to battle Thornton and Casey Janssen for closer.
5. Trade Reider Gonzalez and David Cooper for Macier Izturis and a mid-level prospect.






SS Escobar
LF  Thames/Encarnacion
RF Bautista
DH Ortiz
1B Lind/Encarnacion
CF Rasmus
3B Lawrie
C Arencibia
2B Beckham


OF Davis
SS/3B/2B Izturis
C Molina
1B/DH Lind/Encarnacion

McNulty - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 04:58 PM EST (#246535) #
As a sidenote, strike Rey Gonzalez off the list. On second look, the impressive numbers he did put up were from 2009. I would still love to see the Jays get Izturis for a utility role. Gets on base considerably better than Johnny Mac or Mike McCoy. 
McNulty - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 05:02 PM EST (#246536) #
As well, Thames could be part of the package to Chicago for Beckham/Thornton instead of Snider.  The Sox might prefer Thames because he outplayed Snider in '11 and Snider is coming off injury.
smcs - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 06:12 PM EST (#246537) #
Having a good bullpen could significantly change the framework of the team.

Perhaps. But the Jays really did have the makings of a good bullpen last year, and it kinda sorta didn't matter. Camp was really good in 2009 and 2010, but did not have a good 2011. Francisco was hurt at the start of the year, and had stretches of dominance. Rauch was a 6'11'' version of Kevin Gregg. Villaneuva has pressed into the starting rotation. Perez carried luck on his side for a long time before his peripherals caught up to him. Janssen ended up with the best stats. Jason Frasor was Jason Frasor; Rzepczynski was Rzepczynski; Dotel was Dotel. They got packaged for a better player.

Going into next year, I'm comfortable with Francisco, Janssen, Camp, Villaneuva and Litsch making up the back-bone of the bullpen. If they want to replace Camp with Carreno, I'm fine with that. The real need is a 2 lefties. LOOGYs are not something that has to be overpaid for. If the Jays wanted to bring back Brian Tallet, strictly as a LOOGY, I would be 100% behind this (look at hi splits the last full year he played in Toronto). Half of the fun of building a bullpen is throwing everything at the wall, and seeing what sticks.
sam - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 06:33 PM EST (#246538) #
This Ryan Madson contract could really throw a wrench into plans of signing Palpelbon or Nathan. That's serious money the Phillies are throwing at Madson, money that Papelbon will presume to get and then some.
bpoz - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 07:04 PM EST (#246539) #
I am impressed by the creativity & persistence by AA in making his trades.

Wells & his $84mil over 4 years for Napoli & Rivera and their $12mil total. So LAA will pay Wells $62mil over 4 years, $15.5 mil per year. This seems more reasonable.

Escobar traded by a team unhappy with their player. Atlanta had no time to waste & AA pounced. A Gon receives a standing ovation upon arrival. A nice fit, maybe Atlanta initiated it. Both teams won.

Rasmus: Another opportunity. Both LaRussa & Rasmus could not stay in ST Louis. LaRussa won. Since AA was persistent in his goal to obtain Rasmus, J MozeliaK may have contacted him. An asking price was determined and AA met that price in a creative and complex manner. AA may have over or under paid, IMO he will never tell.
IMO giving up a talent like Rasmus was hard for Mozeliak, but Rasmus and Larussa were not going to get along in 2011 and also unlikely in future seasons. So Rasmus's trade value would shrink as time went on.
Mozeliak was criticized by fans for the trade but since they won the WS he is now a genius. Due to computer difficulties my data collection was poor...on July 25th ST Louis was .5gm ahead of Milwaukee and 4.5gms behind Atlanta. So they were in a playoff race. Improving the SP & pen by the GM should help in that quest. Going into battle with T Miller & B Tallet as your lefties out of the pen was a weakness that Mozeliak recognized and solved with Zep & Rhodes. On Aug 23 St Louis was 10.5gms behind Atlanta but a 9W-18L Sept by Atlanta was enough for ST Louis to get in.

AA wanted Gose & Lawrie and got them. But how long did it take? And who else is not his list to get? PERSISTENCE.

Relievers can be turned into Draft Picks or packaged for elite talent like Rasmus. So go ahead and change the FA/draft pick rules.
Mylegacy - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 08:09 PM EST (#246540) #
About Yu...

I - like everyone here on the site - am in LOVE with Yu. There are some on the site who think we might actually get him. I haven't, or at least I haven't until just now - I'll get to why in a few key strokes...

Seriously, what will it cost to get him. The Yanks, Red Sox, Texas and most likely AT LEAST 22 other teams are seriously considering making a bid for'd be crazy to not at least throw out some sort of a bid...nothing ventured, nothing gained. AA will throw out a bid - BUT how big of one?
Wilson and Buerle are being touted as  the top two free agent pitchers - meh.

I believe it will take a bid of at least 63 to 73 million to get the RIGHTS to try and cut a deal with him. Ironically - I feel whoever gets his RIGHTS has an EXCELLENT chance of signing him to a three year contract for a VERY REASONABLE amount. BECAUSE, the guy is not a free agent in Japan for three more years - IF he stays in Japan in 2012 he'll earn 6 million - peanuts really. A three year 30 million dollar contract should be a gimme. IF - we want to sign him for longer - well then - that's the rub - anything over 3 years will cost big time - because IF he stays in Japan in that 4th year he'd be able to negotiate will ALL 30 MLB teams pretty much ensuring himself of a killer contract.

SO - I expect his RIGHTS + for the 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons the total cost for the guy would be between 93 and 103 million or, on a TOTAL DOLLAR SPENT yearly average: between $31 million to $33.3 million (of which $63 to $73 million would be up front and would not count against the teams salary cap levels).

You know - the more I think about it - if AA wanted to gamble that we could only AFFORD the guy for those 3 years - AND AA though he would be worth having for that time in order to try and get him to get him to an extension - getting the guy for 3 years at just over a $32 million dollar per year figure - THAT JUST MIGHT BE DOABLE.

I'm beginning to drool, and just because I've already had three glasses of my favorite Scottish beverage.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 08:30 PM EST (#246542) #
Mylegacy - slight problem with the 3 year situation. Yu will be committed to whatever team gets him for 6 years regardless of contract. MLB rules are that a player has to have 6 years of ML experience before they are a free agent, Japan's is 10 years in their league. If Yu comes here and tries to leave after 3 years to go back to Japan he'll see a major pay cut (Japanese teams just can't pay what MLB can).

The general rule of thumb is whatever the rights bid is that the player expects the same amount to go to him over 5 years. So Yu would be, in your example, a net cost of $126 to $146 million over 5 years or $25.2 to $29.2 million a year. Know how many ML players have signed deals worth that much? A-Rod (and Clemens if you pro-rate his partial season). Ryan Howard's $25 mil per is next in line. The record is Clemens' pro-rated $28 million followed by A-Rod's latest deal for $27.5 per year.

I just can't see any ML team committing all-time record per year money for a guy who hasn't pitched in the majors yet. I wouldn't be shocked if his posting fee is below the $51 mil Daisuke Matsuzaka's fee was (he signed 6 years for $52 mil).
Mylegacy - Tuesday, November 08 2011 @ 11:18 PM EST (#246544) #

I clean forgot that Japanese imports are considered to be new players and are covered by the 6 year rule - actually 7 years if you play them at least one day in the minors before you bring them up to the Show.

As to Yu's worth... I seriously suspect there are serious minds in front offices that HONESTLY think (as I do) that he is a for real phenom. The question is - is AA one of true believers.

Magpie - Wednesday, November 09 2011 @ 12:06 AM EST (#246545) #
Their next three games will be quite tough. They could emerge from that stretch noticeably below the pre-season Top Four/Six or they could emerge ready to make a bona fide run at a Euro spot.

I'd better enjoy the moment. Just in case.
TamRa - Wednesday, November 09 2011 @ 12:28 AM EST (#246549) #
I don't actually think Yu will get what Dice-K got. Boston went WAY off the curve with that signing. Of course, if no team offers $50 mil for him the Fighters might just decline all offers. Bat at least he wouldn't be a Yankee.

I'm thinking the high bid on the posting will be just marginally over $40 mil (which, since you control him for six years, you could suppose that pro-rates out to about $6.8 mil per)

then you can afford to give him a bit more to sign - I like something like 8-10-12-14 with that maybe tweeked to include a signing bonus or a buy-out or something to lower the back-end cost. Keep the annual cost combined below 20 mil in every year of the contract.

TamRa - Wednesday, November 09 2011 @ 12:36 AM EST (#246550) #
This Ryan Madson contract could really throw a wrench into plans of signing Palpelbon or Nathan.

Why would anyone expect that Nathan will get paid anything close to what Pap, Madison and Rodriguez will?

those three will each pull down 12 or more AAV - I think we can get Nathan for something more like 8 or 9 at most and on a shorter deal.
jgadfly - Wednesday, November 09 2011 @ 05:29 AM EST (#246551) #

What I would like to see the Jays do ...

           1 ... Convince Rogers to expand into Latin America and establish an International Headquarters somewhere in Cuba ... Don't tell anybody !

            2... Add a baisebol complex for the recreational use of its Cuban employees ... Don't tell anybody !

            3... Hire people like Raul Castro's son who is in favour of allowing Cuban players to legally leave the island ... Don't tell anybody !

            4... Hire relatives of the premiere baseball talent and invite them to bring their sons to work ... Don't tell anybody !

            5... Award them foreign exchange scholarships to Canadian private schools where after a year they can apply for citizenship ... Don't tell anybody !

            6...Draft the newly proud Canadians in the North American draft ...  Tell everybody ! 

  Of course problems may arise !  The Cubans may prefer to work with a team that would be more politically saleable in Cuba ... like the Reds . And of course Rogers executives could be arrested by the Cuban Gov't if they provide the same high-handed unresponsive dictatorial sales approach that they utilize in Canada (perhaps they could negotiate a waiver of amnesty for any sales related problems)  The one plus of it all is that the Jays have a GM in place who is really good at keeping a secret . Actually, rumour has it that AA is already entering  Year 3 of a 5 Year Plan which seemed to go over well with the Cuban Gov't .

jgadfly - Wednesday, November 09 2011 @ 05:38 AM EST (#246552) #
PS ... Don't tell anybody !
dawgatc - Wednesday, November 09 2011 @ 06:10 AM EST (#246553) #
Let the Cubans and a band of undrafted North American kids play together in the Intercounty league. They can call themselves the Leaside Sugar kings and play out of Talbot Park.The cuban government will love it when the Jays start to reap the benefits and bring world series after world series to Canada.lets go AA;get it done. yahoo!!!!!
John Northey - Wednesday, November 09 2011 @ 10:26 AM EST (#246557) #
The super-Cuban Yoenis Cespedes video is back online at

For those who haven't seen it, you just gotta watch it. This guy will probably get around $30 mil (he is a free agent) and everyone is looking into him. For a great read on it go to Baseball Prospectus - (free article) and the followup at
bpoz - Wednesday, November 09 2011 @ 10:31 AM EST (#246558) #
I would like the Jays to develop & employ a strategy to win more games. IMO 96 wins is unlikely, but 88-91 is possible given that 2011 was 81 wins.

The 2010 manager said he was hoping for a 500 or better record. The 2011 manager said he was hoping for 88 wins, IMO the injury to Lawrie may have hurt that ambition.

Luck plays a big part in winning. TB & ST Louis had more good luck than Boston & Atlanta IMO. I believe that Pythagoras can help calculate good, neutral or bad luck based on 1 run wins & losses, this just as a calculation tool.

Roster movement is something that can help winning as well. M McCoy going back & forth to LV was a good way to bring someone up for a short time, he had an available option to do this. I remember D Purcey coming up for 1 start a few years ago and S Richmond, Mastro & Mills were used in this way as well.
This year quite often a player like Escobar was slightly injured, so he was kept on the roster rather than DL'd so that he was not lost for 15 days. His early return before 15 days helped the team. In 2012 possibly Hech can be that replacement, but I don't know if that would hurt his development, so McCoy is probably better.

If I understand the rules correctly, a player can come up for as little as 1 day but if sent down has to stay down for 10 days minimum unless he is an injury replacement. I can see Cooper & Mastro coming up and Carreno going down as a way for versatility, and if a RP is needed within 10 days Beck & Farquar are possibilities. I also like N Molina if on the 40 man roster to make a spot start if Romero or McGowan need to miss a start. If 2 starts are needed in a row the 2nd can be made by Drabek if he is in the minors, with Carreno (demoted) & Beck & Farquar filling in for the shortage in the pen.

When the Rasmus trade gutted the pen, R Lewis & Ledesma were added to the 40 man roster, they along with Tallet & T Miller gave a 100% effort in filling the shortage. If that happens this year IMO we will be more prepared due to hopefully development on the farm in youngsters and more experienced players like Chavez & Magnuson.
Glevin - Thursday, November 10 2011 @ 02:21 AM EST (#246577) #
"Their next three games will be quite tough. They could emerge from that stretch noticeably below the pre-season Top Four/Six or they could emerge ready to make a bona fide run at a Euro spot.

I'd better enjoy the moment. Just in case."

You'd better. 11 games in and their most difficult matchups were home to Spurs and Arsenal (when they were struggling) and away to Villa. They drew all of them. Next three games are hard. I suspect maybe 1 point out of them.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 10 2011 @ 07:38 AM EST (#246579) #
Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 10 2011 @ 09:47 AM EST (#246581) #

David Aardsma is also a free agent, but he had Tommy John surgery in July.  (Complements: MLB Trade Rumours).

I would like to see A.A. sign this Free Agent .  He may not be available until mid - 2012, or later, but he could be an asset for 2013 and on.

bpoz - Thursday, November 10 2011 @ 05:35 PM EST (#246592) #
Thanks Richard SS.

Is there such a thing as an Rbi Machine.... guy who seems to get a lot of rbi somehow.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 10 2011 @ 10:49 PM EST (#246595) #


Yes, that individual has been known to exist, often.   Whom, shall it be now?   I don't know.   However, this site: (still missing Left-handed Relievers post) lets you check out the possibilities.

Magpie - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 12:44 AM EST (#246596) #
Is there such a thing as an Rbi Machine.... guy who seems to get a lot of rbi somehow.

Sure. His name was Lou Gehrig, and he was the greatest RBI man who ever lived.

Of course, that wasn't all he could do...
92-93 - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 01:04 AM EST (#246597) #
I hear he hit behind a pretty decent hitter.
Richard S.S. - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 08:43 AM EST (#246600) #
Mike Green - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 10:19 AM EST (#246602) #
Joe Carter was our local RBI machine.  Hell, in 1997 at age 37, he hit .234/.284/.399 and drove in 102.  JPA could top that in a second if you bat him 4th and he's a catcher, too.

/baseball has a tea party too

92-93 - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 11:37 AM EST (#246603) #
Jamey Carroll would be a welcomed addition, provided it's for the bench and not as the starting 2B.
MrPurple - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 11:46 AM EST (#246604) #
Trade rumors says he is about to sign with an unknown team. I am willing to say it is likely the Jays. Who else but A.A. would be unknown?!?
China fan - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 12:09 PM EST (#246605) #
Jamey Carroll's OBP has been .355 or higher in each of the past four seasons.  He's got no power, but has some speed on the base paths (22 stolen bases over the past two seasons, vs. only four times caught stealing).  He'd definitely be an upgrade over McCoy and Johnny Mac. 
ayjackson - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 12:10 PM EST (#246606) #
Merely a Utility guy, or a backup plan if Johnson elects to go elsewhere?
China fan - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 12:11 PM EST (#246607) #
Also, he's a former Montreal Expo!!
John Northey - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 12:45 PM EST (#246608) #
Jamey Carroll is listed as being worth $7+ mil a year since 2008 every season. He played over 500 innings at SS and another 500+ at 2B while having significant time at 3B in the past and a bit of time in LF/CF/RF as well.

He is entering his age 38 season so he wouldn't be looking for more than a 2 year deal I'd expect, and has never made $3 mil in a season. He sounds like a guy that'd be a great signing - can play 2B/3B/SS as needed and can even shift to the OF if needed, only twice over 500 PA thus would probably be OK if shifted to a bench role should Adeiny be ready early or if a better option can be gained via trade. His bWAR has been between 1.5 and 3.1 over the past 4 years so both fWAR and bWAR see him as a solid guy who won't hurt.

IMO if you can sign him for under $4 mil per for 2 years or less then do it. At the very least he is a good John McDonald/Mike McCoy replacement, at the best he is solid at 2B with good OBP skills and good baserunning (10-0 in SB/CS last year, 12-4 in 2010, 63-30 lifetime).

FYI: Johnson in 2 of the past 4 years did worse than Carroll has done, but twice did much better. Perfect world is to have both on the team so if Johnson slumps Carroll can step in, and Carroll could cover injury time for Lawrie (he will be DL'ed at some point I'm sure with his method of play).
SK in NJ - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 12:50 PM EST (#246609) #
Carroll in a super utility role would be perfect. Good AVG/OBP, can play multiple positions, and seems to be a good team player. He is the type of player contending teams have on their bench.
BlueJayWay - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 01:20 PM EST (#246610) #
Mlbtraderumors is saying the Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, are not the "mystery" team, and that the Jays were one of three finalists yesterday.  So it could very well be us.

If it's as a utility type, playing the Mike McCoy role, it's fine with me.  He's got decent obp ability.

BlueJayWay - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 01:29 PM EST (#246611) #
And Rosenthal just tweeted Indians and Braves aren't the team, either. 
ayjackson - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 02:14 PM EST (#246612) #

While we wait with baited breath for Jamey Caroll news, I have two questions:

1)  Do you believe the Jays will add a number 1 or 2 starter this offseason?

2)  If yes, who do you think it will be?

I`d like to get a sense of who people think are available out there.

My answers are `yes` and Yu Darvish.  (I actually think a trade is more likely than Darvish, but Darivsh is the more probable than any other specific SP).


mathesond - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 02:38 PM EST (#246613) #
What's all this about Papelbon signing with the Phillies? Any thoughts as to where Madson will end up, and what he'll get?
greenfrog - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 02:47 PM EST (#246614) #
Carroll would be a nice early Christmas gift. I doubt that he'll be available for a song, though.
TamRa - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 02:52 PM EST (#246615) #
I like the idea of Carroll as a good reserve (can he play a competent SS?) and he also has the benefit of being a not-ugly fallback position if no actual GOOD 2B option comes along. It's hard to see a downside unless you extravagantly overpay.
ayjackson - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 02:52 PM EST (#246616) #
I`d have to think Madson just lost at least $10m in guaranteed money.
John Northey - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 03:21 PM EST (#246619) #
Given Carroll has never been a full-time regular (534 PA his max), has never made $3 mil in a season, and is entering his age 38 season, I can't see him getting over $5 mil a year even though FanGraphs lists him as a $7 mil a year player. At $5 mil or less I'd sign him quickly (if I trusted Fangraphs to be in eyeshot for value, which I do). I strongly suspect it'll be a 2 year, $3-4 mil a year deal where he feels he has a shot at playing everyday at any position on the field.

He has been to the World Series but didn't win (Colorado in 2007) however a guy in his position will probably put more strength on opportunity to play and environment than anything else. This is where AA's being a nice guy to players and getting ex-players to praise the team helps. Did Barajas (left after 2009) leave under decent conditions (Carroll was in LA with him last year)? Cannot recall what Juan Rivera said when he was sent off. The Dodgers also had Ted Lilly but he hasn't been here in awhile (2006).
sam - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 03:34 PM EST (#246620) #
Broxton would be a good guy to have in the bullpen next year.
sam - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 03:39 PM EST (#246621) #
And no more Papelbon equals good news.
China fan - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 03:41 PM EST (#246622) #
Latest reports suggest that the Jays are competing against the Twins for Carroll.   If the Jays can't beat the Twins in a battle for a back-up infielder, I'd be disappointed. My only concern would be:  if AA feels that he has to guarantee 600 annual at-bats to Carroll, in order to sign him, that might be tying Farrell's hands too much.  The Jays have to have the flexibility to move Carroll down the bench if others are out-performing him.
China fan - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 03:53 PM EST (#246623) #
And ...  sure enough, the Twins have signed Carroll.  By promising to make him their everyday SS.  A step too far for the Jays.
John Northey - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 04:36 PM EST (#246624) #
I can understand this. The Jays probably offered more cash but the Twins had open slots at ... well ... pretty much everywhere (losing over 90 does that). So if Carroll wanted his shot at 600 PA then the Twins were a smart choice. $7 mil over 2 years wasn't a ton but will be a bargain for the Twins.

Wonder who the next guy on AA's to-do list is?
Mike D - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 06:08 PM EST (#246625) #
The Marlins have apparently made offers to both Pujols and Reyes.

And here I thought that attendance had to dramatically improve before an MLB club could possibly increase payroll?
Mike Green - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 06:32 PM EST (#246626) #
Jeffrey?  Is that you?  It looks like you, but maybe you have changed.  I don't know what to think.
Shane - Friday, November 11 2011 @ 09:06 PM EST (#246627) #

"By promising to make him their everyday SS.  A step too far for the Jays."


 "The Jays probably offered more cash but the Twins had open slots"

Ya, think? I don't.

Mike Forbes - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 12:04 AM EST (#246628) #
According to Bob Elliot, the Jays are making inquiries on Ryan Madsen. I'd be interested. Just not 4/44 interested.
Mike Forbes - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 12:06 AM EST (#246629) #
Madson, sorry.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 03:43 AM EST (#246631) #

Checking out Jonathan Broxton, , , as best as I could, made me realize he could pitch for us.   Even at 93-96 on your fastball (once consistantly 99+) is better than most pitchers.   If his medical records are satisfactory, then $10-$15.0 MM over 2-3 years, with option year(s).

Checking out David Aardsma, , , was interesting, he could be an asset.   He might not pitch until Mid-season or later (joining the club then).   If you show willingness to sign him when injured, you could get a bargain, try $8-12.0 MM over 2-3 years, with option year(s).

Checking out Ryan Madson, , , (some detail, but insider needed for more).  He's a Good Pitcher, who can Close, but dealing  with (that -blocked-) Boras is not worth the hastle.   Of course, the $12.5 MM average salary Papelbon's reportedly getting will block Madson's value.   Madson didn't pitch in the AL East and was the Closer for 1 year, not Papelbon's 6 years, offer $24-$32.0 MM over 3-4 years, with option year(s).   I can think of better ways to lose a 1st round pick.


85bluejay - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 06:03 AM EST (#246632) #
Jonathan Broxton is looking for a 1 yr deal to rebuild his value and  get his multiyear deal next year - Great for the Jays because if he returns to form, he's young enough to give a 3 yr deal and if he leaves he's likely a type A  
Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 08:05 AM EST (#246633) #
The problem with the Papelbon signing is: .   Considering any alternatives, means moving fast before the price goes up.  As an upgrade on Frank Francisco are Closers Heath Bell, Ryan Madson and Francisco Cordero, with K-Rod as an alternative.   Jonathan Broxton and David Aardsma, although both were injured, should be good value and an upgrade on F.F.   Unlike Bell, Madson, Cordero and K-Rod, they don't cost a # 17 draft pick.  A.A. had better get going on this real soon.
Gerry - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 08:36 AM EST (#246634) #
For those old enough to have been Expos fans, I have some sad news. Charlie Lea died yesterday of a heart attack. Lea was only 54.
greenfrog - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 11:57 AM EST (#246636) #
Maybe relievers are becoming the new market inefficiency, as teams become more evenly matched (and prices continue to rise) in other areas of the game.
ayjackson - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 01:07 PM EST (#246638) #

Charlie Lea was may favourite Expo pitcher growing up, and there with El Presidente and Pedro for favourite of all time.  Definitely sad news to hear.

Original Ryan - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 01:18 PM EST (#246639) #
Maybe relievers are becoming the new market inefficiency, as teams become more evenly matched (and prices continue to rise) in other areas of the game.

I think the market for relievers is becoming even more inefficient. If Ryan Madson had been a free agent a year ago when he was still a setup guy, he'd probably get about half of what he's expected to this offseason. Even though Madson was essentially the same pitcher from one year to the next, he's going to be rewarded because Charlie Manuel decided to use him in a slightly different role in 2011. The save is a contrived and largely meaningless statistic, and yet teams will pay through the nose for a guy who's accumulated a lot of them.

Given how prevalent sabermetrics has become in the game, it's baffling that bullpen usage hasn't changed accordingly. A manager using his best reliever just to accumulate saves -- many of which are piled up in relatively low-leverage situations -- is very inefficient and a waste of that pitcher's abilities. Lesser pitchers are tasked with the high-leverage non-save situations that occur in the earlier innings of a game, which often means that a 9th inning save situation will never arise because those lesser pitchers blew it. Using a relief ace in high-leverage situations, regardless of whether they occur in the 7th inning or 9th inning, would seem to be a rather obvious way to improve a team's win total. If teams started to place less emphasis on saves, it would also lower the salaries of elite relievers, at least in the short run. I can't understand why a team has yet to try this approach.

ogator - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 01:52 PM EST (#246640) #
 Original Ryan, I think you answered your own question.  Madson is getting a huge amount of money because he accumulated a significant number of saves.  If he had been used instead in high leverage situations, he would perhaps have helped the team more, accumulated fewer saves and found himself eligible for far less money.  Baseball isn't played in the land of sabermetrics but in the real world with real people and then sabermetrics records what happens in that world.  It might be very difficult, nigh impossible for a manager to use real people with such a strategy.  What pitcher is going to happily function in an environment that lowers his potential value?  At best a manager would be surrounded by grumpy players who give him a hard time at every opportunity.  More likely, he would find non-co-operative players with phantom injuries and his GM would find that no one wanted to sign with his organization.  It isn't always about the name on the front of the uni.
Original Ryan - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 05:30 PM EST (#246643) #
What pitcher is going to happily function in an environment that lowers his potential value? At best a manager would be surrounded by grumpy players who give him a hard time at every opportunity. More likely, he would find non-co-operative players with phantom injuries and his GM would find that no one wanted to sign with his organization.

Players with big save totals get paid well because teams place a high value on that statistic. Teams once placed a similarly high value on batting average and RBIs, but we’ve seen a gradual shift away from those stats over the past decade. If saves were the subject of a similar shift in philosophy around the game, players would begin to realise that having a big save total isn’t necessarily going to result in a big payday. Eventually salaries would begin to rise for elite high-leverage relievers as the new approach gained acceptance, but in the short-term the team(s) that moved first would have an edge, both financially and strategically.

A relatively young bullpen without an established closer is probably the ideal situation to try it first. No reliever would have the stature to demand that he be used in a particular role. It would be tough to get someone like Papelbon or Rivera to buy into such a shift in philosophy, but some less-established guys might. A team would also need a manager who is willing to do some actual managing and unafraid of being second-guessed. Baseball is full of copycats, and if a redefinition of bullpen roles worked for one team, you’d soon see other teams going with it.

ogator - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 06:01 PM EST (#246644) #
  It's an interesting argument.  What kind of manager would have the clout to initiate such a gasp-drawing change in philosophy?  It would have to be someone who was either well-established or securely supported by his front office.  I think the reason that one sees so much copy catting activity is that if one follows the conventional wisdom i.e. "the book" and one fails then one can blame the personnel, fate, the gods or just bad luck.  But a young manager in his first position who tried such an earth-shattering shift in how to run things would be savaged in the media by the team's fans and even a general manager who initially supported him, would probably bail at the first sign of fan revolt.  I suppose the opposite might happen i.e. that manager might be successful but the success would have to come early and fairly obviously.  It is just difficult to imagine someone like Bobby Cox or Tony Larussa or Cito, someone with the heft to make such a change, trying something so startlingly new.  A young manager who used such a philosophy and who failed might never work again.
Mike Green - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 06:46 PM EST (#246645) #
If a manager (let's say John Farrell) told a general manager (let's say Alex Anthopoulos), "please don't spend $10 million on a proven closer, and use it instead on a big bat or a starting pitcher", you'd think that might not fall on deaf ears.
Original Ryan - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 07:20 PM EST (#246646) #
What kind of manager would have the clout to initiate such a gasp-drawing change in philosophy? It would have to be someone who was either well-established or securely supported by his front office.

It's an approach that would have to be fully supported by (and perhaps even originate from) the front office. I can't imagine a manager initiating such a change in approach all by himself. If it was well thought out and communicated to the players, it could definitely work if given the chance.

The hardest part would be the second-guessing by fans and media that you mentioned. Fortunately the media is more sabermetrically-inclined than it was back in 2003 when the Red Sox attempted their "closer by committee" approach. I suspect that if a team today tried to redefine bullpen roles based on leverage, it would be praised for doing so by a significant number of journalists.

92-93 - Saturday, November 12 2011 @ 08:16 PM EST (#246647) #
Farrell made it very clear he's a fan of clearly defined bullpen roles.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 13 2011 @ 12:02 AM EST (#246648) #

At the time of it's signing, the B.J. Ryan contract was the largest contract ever given out to a reliever.   Since that time (compliments of Cot's Baseball Contracts)

Relief pitchers
The highest-paid relief pitchers, by average annual value:
1. Mariano Rivera, $15,000,000 (2008-10) (2011-12)
2. Brad Lidge, $12,500,000 (2009-11)
3. Francisco Rodriguez, $12,333,333 (2009-11)
4. Jonathan Papelbon, $12,000,000 (2011)
5. Joe Nathan, $11,750,000 (2008-11)

6. Francisco Cordero, $11,500,000 (2008-11)
7. Billy Wagner, $10,750,000 (2006-09)
8. Kerry Wood, $10,250,000 (2009-10)
9. B.J. Ryan, $9,400,000 (2006-10)
10. Jonathan Papelbon, $9,350,000 (2010)
11. Brian Fuentes, $8,750,000 (2009-10)
12. Trevor Hoffman, $8,000,000 (2010)
13. Bobby Jenks, $7,500,000 (2010)
. . . Heath Bell, $7,500,000 (2011)
15. Jose Valverde, $7,000,000 (2010-11)

16. Danys Baez, $6,333,333 (2007-09)
17. Trevor Hoffman, $6,000,000 (2009)
. . . Mike Gonzalez, $6,000,000
19. Bobby Jenks, $5,600,000 (2009)
20. Octavio Dotel, $5,500,000 (2008-09)
. . . Fernando Rodney, $5,500,000 (2010-11)

. . . Joaquin Benoit, $5,500,000 (2011-13)
. . . Jonathan Broxton, $5,500,000 (2010-11)    .............................     other reliever salaries have exceeded it.   And salaries for other less-than-stellar relievers came close. 

I believe two things to be true, because of the contract.   1) In 2006, B.J. Ryan threw steadily harder, than at any time before in his career.   2) In 2008, B.J. Ryan came back much too soon, and damaged his recovery beyond repair.     Any guaranteed contract, of 1 year or more, can be a bad contract if you lose that person, for 50% or more of a year.   IMO, the B.J. Ryan contract was not a bad contract, it just had an unfortunate result, tainting all other big contracts this team will sign.

I  believe A.A. should sign the best available reliever (Closer or not) as our closer.   Papelbon set this season's standard by which all contracts will be set.    That will determine what A.A. will pay.

bpoz - Sunday, November 13 2011 @ 09:20 AM EST (#246649) #
I don't think the CLOSER theory will not be resolved, maybe ever. There was an article provided by Bauxites last year in which research proved something like...It does not matter who closes the success rate is very high at about 95%. I think this role is very complicated.

I think there is a nervousness/fear factor involved in closing. A team has a chance to come back from a 7th inning blown save. I now think of it as a blown HOLD. A 9th inning blown save especially bottom of the 9th blown save results in a team loss.

I was in awe of Goose Gossage as a closer, his stuff was very good and he was not afraid. Actually I think he scared the hitters.

Al Habrosky had a scary act as well. I am not sure how good
his stuff was. So his act could have more to do with his success than his stuff.
B Wilson's beard may also be a factor in his success. He succeeded enough in the 2010 playoffs to considered a potential elite closer.

In 1992 M Timlin got a big save, it was a very small sample size and he was a rookie. Memory fails me so I could be wrong, but here goes...I think he was not used that much in the 1992 playoffs ie he was not a go to guy not with both Henke & Ward and the 3rd option was IMO either Acker or Eichorn. It could have been a calculated strategy or a hunch of the Manager, either way IMO it was a surprise to everyone. Timlin may also have been surprised, but then he was warming up so... Maybe he did not have time to get nervous/scared. I WAS nervous & scared so I cannot remember if it was a long AB or who was hitting OR details of what really happened. I just remember a GB to 1st, J Carter. The game may have been on the road, because why else would Carter have been at 1st. I also cannot remember what the announcers said about the move to bring in Timlin, which I wish I could remember.
That save was a hi-lite in Timlin's career IMO, he had a good & long career but not much as a closer. Nervousness and fear may have been a contributing factor IMO.

uglyone - Sunday, November 13 2011 @ 09:39 AM EST (#246650) #
Closers aren't as important as the traditionalists think, but are much more important than the new skool thinks.

as for BJ, i would give that contract again in heartbeat. he may have been the best reliever in jays history when healthy, and while he was always an injury risk, it was still bad luck for him to be as injured as he was.
Guy.Beauregard - Sunday, November 13 2011 @ 10:00 AM EST (#246651) #
[BJ Ryan] may have been the best reliever in jays history when healthy Mr Tom Henke would like to have a word with you.
greenfrog - Sunday, November 13 2011 @ 11:11 AM EST (#246652) #
Lots of people thought that Ryan's unorthodox delivery represented a red flag at the time of the signing, so you can't just go on his stats over the previous few years. Other things being equal, I would rather see the Jays sign a pitcher with clean mechanics.
Ryan Day - Sunday, November 13 2011 @ 04:01 PM EST (#246653) #
"Lots of people thought that Ryan's unorthodox delivery represented a red flag at the time of the signing"

Sure, but lots of people thought Mark Prior had an absolutely perfect delivery and could pitch forever. And Livan Hernandez has kept pitching despite lots of people predicting a major injury for most of the past ten years.

There are hardly unanimous opinions on these things, and even when there are, they're not always right.
greenfrog - Sunday, November 13 2011 @ 05:37 PM EST (#246654) #
Some pitchers have textbook deliveries and get hurt. Others have herky-jerky, max effort deliveries and stay relatively healthy. There are no guarantees in baseball, especially when it comes to pitchers' health.

However, it's all about probabilities. On balance, you would expect better mechanics to translate into better durability (hence, "other things being equal").
bball12 - Sunday, November 13 2011 @ 07:40 PM EST (#246655) #
The guesswork is fun - but ultimately meaningless - (and alot of it actually funny).

Lots of work to be done- and lot of changes to be made if the Jays are going to compete next year.

I think AA will surprise us all.


BlueJayWay - Sunday, November 13 2011 @ 10:06 PM EST (#246656) #
Arizona signs Aaron Hill to two year deal, $10 million.
MW88 - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 07:15 AM EST (#246658) #

Farrell made it very clear he's a fan of clearly defined bullpen roles

True, but in my view this is not mutually exclusive with the concept of a relief ace or fireman. Instead of using your best reliever as a closer (usually come in to start the ninth inning of a game when winning by 3 runs or less, occasionally come in to finish the 8th and pitch the ninth, occasionally pitch in a tied game at home when there will be no save situation), you could use him in the role of relief ace (usually come in when tied or leading by 1 or 2 in the 7th or 8th when runners get on, with other occasional uses that are clearly defined in advanced).

In 2010, Scott Downs was essentially used in this type of role; nothwithstanding the fact that Gregg was the closer, he was the best reliever in the bullpen and was brought in various scenarios, but usually with runners on protecting a small lead.

bpoz - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 08:19 AM EST (#246659) #
Thanks Richard SS.

My memory does play tricks at times.

John Northey - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 11:03 AM EST (#246661) #
A cheaper way to get the old memories is going to Salvation Army's around Toronto. I seem to find a 1992 or 1993 video in the bins every time I dig through them. Already have them so it doesn't help me (would love to find the old season reviews from 1977 through 1991 - have one or two but would love to find the rest). Used to love it when TSN would play back all the season reviews for the Jays during March back in the day. Taped them all too, but those old cheap home tapes are virtually unviewable now.
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