Gibbons ignores Lester's 2013 splits and stacks the lineup with 9 righties.

Is there a site somewhere that lists double-splits? I'm curious to see how Lester's splits look only when he pitches in Fenway.

Good question.  I don't think there is.

The interesting thing is that this year's reverse split is entirely driven by his much higher HR rate (in a small sample) by LHBs.  I would normally make nothing of that, but that phenomenon (higher HR rate by LHB) has actually been a career pattern for Lester.  Which is odd for a pitcher who half the time is pitching in a park that favours home runs by RHH. 

Does it really? I picture lefty hitters being a little late on Lester's cutters and whacking them the other way, off the wall. Whereas overmatched righty hitters will (1) get jammed, producing flares (2) into a massive right center. I would expect the righties to have a tougher time against 31 in Boston than elsewhere. Of course that's all crackpot theorizing without the numbers to back it up...

I checked 2013.  Lester has given up 3 homers at Fenway- to Chris Young, Adrian Beltre and Jeff Baker.  All 5 of his HRs surrendered to lefties have been on the road.  That is curious enough that I'll check 2012. 

This might be what you’re looking for. There are rows for Home v L, etc.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P&season=2013

The sample is quite small, but Lester’s xFIP against lefties this year is 3.01, and his K/BB ratio is 4.17. Considering the small sample of data for Lester’s performance against lefties (83 batters faced), I don’t think that stacking the lineup with righties is so clearly a bad move, particularly when one could use the numbers above to justify stacking the lineup with righties.

If you took my post to mean I thought it's a bad move, I don't, I was merely pointing it out. I expect Lind & Rasmus to start vs. Doubront.

Bingo, Balzac. Thanks.

For his career (>1250 IP), Lester's got an 18-point wOBA split on the road, 3-point at home. (The 2013 numbers, in the small sample, are quite the opposite...) Rasmus doesn't strike me as the type of hitter who can use Fenway to his advantage against Lester, so I'd probably sit him. Lind is a different story.

4gms get us to 81gms on the year, exact halfway point.

Jays sweep gets us to 2.5gms out at the halfway point.

Sox sweep drops us to 10.5gms out at the halfway point.

yikes. big series.

Sox' bats are absolutely on fire. Big test for the Jays' best June ERA in baseball.

Boston goes as lefty as possible against Wang: Ellsbury CF, Victorino RF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Carp 1B, Nava LF, Salty C, Drew SS, Iglesias 3B. (Duly benched righties: Napoli, Gomes, Lavaahnway and Brandon Snyder.)

What interested me is that his HR rate is higher against lefties in Fenway over his career to the same extent that it is elsewhere.  I noticed when looking at the games in 2012 that Tampa seemed to take most advantage with Carlos Pena (twice) and Matt Joyce both homering off him in Fenway.

Personally, I'd start both Rasmus and Lind against Lester.

Yeah, Rasmus for the defense, if nothing else. For some reason my mind had Juan Lagares penciled in as the backup CF, rather than Davis. Conflating teams after Dickey and Marcum combined for 17 shutout innings yesterday.

Interestingly, Lind's 3 for 29 against Lester, 1 BB, 12 K. Makes you wonder.

Is there a site that lists a pitcher's stats against switch-hitters? Lester seems like he should be tough on them. Izturis has done pretty well against Lester, Cabrera and Bonifacio not so well.

Interestingly, Lind's 3 for 29 against Lester, 1 BB, 12 K. Makes you wonder.

Good point.  Those are the kind of B v. P numbers that would make me change my mind.  Particularly after Lind swung at quite a few pitches out of the zone both up and down from Matt Moore.

As they say on other sites, Gibby is the best -- and here is the latest proof. He is saying now that the Jays won't bring back Lawrie until they are sure that Lawrie is hitting well. (Unlike the April fiasco.) Here's the tweet about it from Wilner:

@Wilnerness590
Gibby: Lawrie came back too soon in Apr., out of necessity. He won't come back this time unless bat is ready/hitting well.

That doesn't prove much because I would do the same thing with not only Lawrie but Happ and Morrow as well.

Okay, it doesn't prove that Gibby is the best. (It's wasn't meant literally. It's called rhetoric.) But it's still good news, because it shows that the Jays are learning from past mistakes. And yes, they should do the same with Morrow and Happ -- keep them in the minors until they are fully ready. Let's just hope that Rogers and Wang keep pitching well in the interim -- to avoid the temptation of another hasty promotion for a starting pitcher.

Well, Morrow might not be ready for another month and Happ sprained his knee when he went down which worries me more than the concussion.

I guess the alternative was Lind at 1B and DeRosa at 2B. If you insist on carrying Bonifacio, might as well play him here. He's 4 for 8 against Lester. (Strikeouts, not hits, but maybe that was because of the turf.)

Yesterday, I was hasty in writing Johnny Mac's obit. It seems the league is not done with him yet. He is now a Phillie.

Is Lester trying to perform a Romero homage tonight? That would be helpful.

Except that the Jays are looking swing-happy once again.

Looking good so far!

Don't particularly like the way that first inning was managed.  The Red Sox have really stuck it to the Jays this season and are in first place.  Jose Reyes gets on.  Why not send him first or second pitch?  The Jays have not been hitting the ball well and Jose Bautista is in a real funk.  Moreover, it shows a we mean business type attitiude right from the get go?  Bautista pops out on a three-two pitch grooved and Edwin grounds into the easy double play.

Is 7-0 in the 2nd inning an Aaron Loup situation?  I thought that it would be Perez.

What precisely is Perez's role with this team, if it isn't to come into this game in relief of Wang?

Beat me to it, Mike Green!

"He is saying now that the Jays won't bring back Lawrie until they are sure that Lawrie is hitting well. (Unlike the April fiasco.)"

And if somebody had suggested back then Lawrie wasn't ready, you would've been the first person defending the organization's decision. They aren't infallible.

Ideally you use this score as an opportunity to start stretching Perez out into a true long man. I want to see 45+ pitches.

Mike, I think at 5-0 Gibbons was trying to keep the game close and figured he'd go to Loup to face Ortiz if Wang didn't get Pedroia. He wasn't planning on the 2r HR, and once Loup was warm he figured I'll just go to him now because he needs work anyway, with the intention of using Perez later. It was smart.

Fair enough.  If Perez is stretched out and goes 45 pitches, I get it. 

So much for Melky's legs looking improved last weekend. At some point they need to give him some rest.

I can see the logic too in using one of your better relievers in that spot, in the hopes of buying the offense a couple of innings to show something. If they don't, it's mop-up time, and Perez will still get his work in.

I'm thankful for the hit for Izturis. Not only do we add two much needed runs but we also don't have to watch Bonifacio lead off the next inning. I can't say I've seen anyone I enjoy watching less than Bonifacio, at least so far.  At least his fielding looks better now.

I can see why the club doesn't want to lose Perez. I was advocating for his DFA but he looks pretty damn good out there.

Still, if they don't want to lose him they better be working on a trade to open up some space. I don't think the 8 man pen can last forever. Who knows with AA though, for all we know there's a blockbuster in the works.

"....and if somebody had suggested back then Lawrie wasn't ready, you would've been the first person defending the organization's decision...."

Not at all true. Everyone knew that Lawrie hadn't had enough minor-league rehab time in April, but the team was desperate to get him back because of the Reyes injury.

Nobody has ever said the Jays are infallible. But their decisions (such as Perez over Kawasaki) are often more defensible than some people will ever admit.

Damn, that 8th inning could've looked so much different. Reyes smoked that ball and EE got a nice piece, but it wasn't meant to be. I like seeing the team battle back and make it a game, even if they eventually fall short; it's a great mindset to be in, to never believe you're out of the game.

Amazing how one inning can change the game - 2nd inning, 7 runs for Boston otherwise shutout for the Jays pitchers.  Weird.

Guess we all knew Wang would turn back into a pumpkin at some point.  Hopefully he recovers a bit until someone else is ready to take over.  Perez might at this pace - 3 more shutout innings with just 33 pitches thrown.  Figure the Jays should just stretch him out and if Wang has another poor start then let Perez have the next shot and see what happens.

Cabrera to DL, Kawasaki back up. The sound you heard was me slapping my forehead.

Boni and Davis to platoon in left?

Oookay.  That was a short demotion.  He did get a game in at 2B though.

I suspect what we'll see now is...
vs LHP
LF: Davis
2B: Bonifacio or Izturis
3B: DeRosa

vs RHP
LF: Bonifacio
2B: Kawasaki
3B: Izturis

Should be interesting to see how well it works for the next 2 weeks.

John Lott explains why the 8-man bullpen is not a luxury:

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2013/06/27/blue-jays-bullpen-blanks-boston-but-too-late-to-prevent-7-4-loss/

I think it's safe to assume that the Jays had an idea that Cabrera might need the DL soon, and they had already decided that Kawasaki would be the first guy back up. And they decided (correctly so) that there was no point in losing Perez or Bonifacio for the sake of an extra game or two of Kawasaki.

Then they should have put Melky on the DL. Allowing him to play and potentially exacerbating an existing issue was a really stupid idea.

heehee

The Jays do not need yet another light hitting middle infielder. Kawasaki is not a talisman. They should have called up Gozzo or Jimenez. I wouldn't have minded if Kawasaki replaced Bonifacio at the same time but how many guys do you need to cover the same positions? Melky didn't hit much but he did hit a little. They now have at least four guys who don't really hit very much and three of them are going to play every day. Yuck.

Kawasaki is not going to hurt the offence if he continues to get on base the way he has.

Overall, It's the lineup that won 11 games in a row but with Reyes instead of Melky.
Should be fine.

DeRosa has started 74 games in LF over the years.

His defensive numbers looks OK. I'd put him there against Lackey.

Then they should have put Melky on the DL. Allowing him to play and potentially exacerbating an existing issue was a really stupid idea.

Oh come on.  You have literally no idea what Cabrera had told the staff before the Kawasaki demotion or if he tweaked his injury during the game last night.  He's played through the injury for months, and contributed.  Why one extra game doing the same thing qualifies as stupid is beyond me. 

"You have literally no idea what Cabrera had told the staff before the Kawasaki demotion"

I was responding to a comment that suggested the staff knew a Melky DL stint was near. Context is pretty important.

Kawasaki is not a talisman. They should have called up Gozzo or Jimenez

Hooray, a Mauro Gozzo sighting.  He'd be the perfect ninth guy in the pen for those 16-0 games when you don't want to waste your 7 and 8 guys.

It's about 500 miles from Buffalo to Boston.  So, is the song of the day from The Proclaimers ? Or will poor Munenori have to go back and forth twice and will it be the Pretenders instead?

He's played through the injury for months, and contributed.

Give him credit for playing hurt, especially in the absence of anyone halfway useful to step in and take his place, but his OPS+ is only 87. That's not terribly helpful.

I didn't realize that Mauro Gozzo Gomez has got a Crash Davis type thing going with 154 career HR in the minors. Not sure how he'd find playing time where he called up, what with Lind/Encarnacion monopolizing 1B/DH.

I wasn't sure if Gozzo was intended to be Gomez or Gose. Or maybe the best parts of both, Gomez' power and Gose defensive skills and speed. 

Cabrera has had 3 seasons...
April: 241/291/287 - ugh, talk about useless 63 sOPS+
May: 319/361/460 - sweet, 127 sOPS+
June: 273/309/330 - ugh, 82 sOPS+

So in April he was useless, May a key contributor, and June was poor.  I'm guessing his aches and pains were less in May for whatever reason. 

Looking at each month we know he played every single game (pretty weird given we all knew he was hurting).  DHed just once in April, 6 times in May plus a PH appearance, 2 times in June (June 25th/26th) plus on the 1st he didn't start but PH and played LF.  This suggests strongly that Cabrera needed rest of some kind in April and June but Gibbons kept putting him into the outfield for some reason.  Seems clear that Cabrera needed rest and wasn't given any.  Why I cannot say, but it doesn't look good as a bit of rest might have allowed him to play at a higher level.

"....I was responding to a comment that suggested the staff knew a Melky DL stint was near...."

No, you weren't. You're misquoting me. I said the Jays had "an idea" that Cabrera might need the DL. Of course they didn't "know" that he needed the DL. They thought it was possible, and they may have even thought it was likely, but they didn't know. Having Kawasaki available for the call-up was obviously prudent and a good plan.

"....Allowing him to play and potentially exacerbating an existing issue was a really stupid idea..."

So now we're experts on the internal medical discussions of the Blue Jays? It's amazing how much verbiage is spilled on speculation of medical matters, which we patently cannot be certain about.

It's completely normal for MLB players to have existing health issues, which sometimes get better and sometimes get worse. These health issues are carefully tracked by the trainers and managers, who can predict what is possible or likely but cannot be certain what will happen from game to game.

By the way, whatever happened to all the people who criticized the Jays for not putting Dickey on the DL for his back ailments? Good thing the Jays didn't follow the advice of those armchair doctors, because they would have been swept by the Rays this week. Dickey has completely recovered from those ailments without the necessity of a DL stint.

And now wait for some fans to say, "he should have been on the DL for those two or three games that he lost in May" or whatever.... Medical diagnosis from the 500 level...

Or medical diagnosis from RA Dickey himself, who admitted he was hurt in May and got healthy in June. He hurt the team pitching through injury.

The all-star break starts July 15th.  Cabrera would be eligible to come off the DL on or around July 13th.  If he is not fully healed the Jays can leave him on the DL for 3 weeks and he would only miss an extra two games

The organization is in a bit of a spot, and it isn't really for lack of preparation. At the outset of the season, they had Cabrera in left field with Davis and Gose backing him up.  All Gose had to do to be a viable platoon partner was maintain his performance of the past 2 years.  Instead, he has taken a step backwards at a most unfortunate time for both him and the team.  My only complaint with the organization's handling of him was the decision to call him up earlier in the season when he was struggling; even if they hadn't done that, it is unlikely that he would be ready now. 

For now, the club ought to just stick Davis in left field. 

I think Kawasaki's return means they trust Bonifacio in LF, otherwise it would've been Pillar or Sierra getting the call.

"....He hurt the team pitching through injury..."

Again with the armchair medicine. Just to be clear, are you alleging that the Jays were ignoring the advice of their trainers and medical staff? Or are you suggesting that you know better than the medical staff?

In any event, it was a moot question. Dickey could pitch, and the alternative was someone like Dave Bush or Edgar Gonzelez, who would have "hurt the team" even worse.

For now, the club ought to just stick Davis in left field. 

I agree that there are not a lot of options at the moment, and this is probably the best of a bad lot, but we have a good idea of how this will probably play out. While Davis is doing fine now with almost half his playing time coming against LHP, he'll likely get exposed once he has to face RHP fulltime. I can picture it now. Swinging strike three on a curve ball a foot outside, with an awkward one-handed follow-through.

I wonder what Dave Berg is up to.

For his career, Bonifacio is .254/.316/.354 against RHP (he is, of course, much worse than that this year).  The reasonable best case scenario for him is that he will be an equivalent hitter against RHP to Rajai Davis.  Unless you think that he'd be a significant defensive upgrade, I don't know why one would platoon.  You could give him the occasional start there, and the occasional start at second base against LHP. 

Actually, I do know why one would platoon.  One might believe in his tools so much that one is sure that they would be translated into skills any minute- .237 OBP be damned.

I'm not alleging anything. I'm relaying RA Dickey's own words that he was hurt in May and turned a corner in June. He posted a 5.82 ERA in May.

Dickey, like a lot of MLB players, admitted that he was less than 100 per cent in May. Should the Jays put players on the DL as soon as they are less than 100 per cent? If so, you'd see half the league on the DL. Dickey and the Jays reached the conclusion that he was still a better help to the team than the alternative (a Bush or a Gonzalez). To allege that he "hurt the team" is a remarkable allegation, without any supporting evidence.

I wonder what Dave Berg is up to

Thanks for the memories, Chuck.  It really is a shame.  Gose took a step back.  Pillar has taken a step forward but is not quite ready.  Bad timing.

Brandon Morrow had an ERA of 6.05 from April 19 to May 28. Should he have been on the DL for that entire period of time? Josh Johnson had an ERA of 7.90 from April 11 to April 21. Should he have been on the DL? Seems that the majority of the rotation was selfishly "hurting the team" for half of the season so far. Should the Jays have gone instead with a rotation of Buehrle, Happ, Bush, Gonzalez and Germano?

The results couldn't have been any worse so I'm going to say yes, probably. Maybe that way Morrow would be close to healthy now.

It's hard for me to have any faith in the decisions made by the Blue Jays training staff.

Just look at last night's game. Melky was very obviously badly injured (enough to warrant a comment from me that he needs the DL stint, despite me thinking he looked a lot healthier last weekend in Toronto vs. Baltimore), but he was allowed to continue playing in the game on an injury he was going to be DLed for hours later. What changed? That doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the training staff.

Low grade injuries do sometimes have peaks and valleys.  Sometimes it is very hard to tell whether a peak is part of a return to normal function. 

I was puzzled why Gibbons wouldn't maximize the amount of time that Cabrera DHed or rested.  So last night, with Lester on the mound, he could have had Rasmus in center, Davis in left, Izturis at third, Encarnacion at first and Melky DHing instead of DeRosa or resting.  I know that Gibbons preferred DeRosa's bat and Melky's bat to Rasmus' against Lester, but the defensive and rest advantages seem to me to be worth it.

It's a tough thing to manage through low grade injuries, but that does seem to be part of the job description. 

The Season is devided into 1st half and 2nd half by the All Star Break. I think our 1st half should be devided into 3 segments. Segment One was "Hitting Bottom" 02 April - 04 May (11-21). Segment Two was "Regaining Relevance" 05 May - 23 June (27-15). The 3rd Segment is "Moving Forward" 24 June - 14 July (presently 1-3).

Mike - agreed 100% on the 'why wasn't Cabrera rested' question.  He played every last game and nearly every inning while rarely DHing except in May when he actually played well.  Based on past studies a day off each month is a good thing for a players endurance and performance (6 games a year) and some DH time couldn't hurt. 

As to Dickey - the Jays have lost 9 of his 17 starts.  Only once did a streak last more than 2 starts (thus long enough to cover a DL stint).  From April 23rd to May 9th the Jays lost 4 straight Dickey starts.  In those games the Jays scored 3,2,1, and 4 runs.  The game the Jays scored 4 Dickey allowed 3 (2 earned) but the pen gave up 2 more.  The game the Jays scored 2 Dickey allowed 3 in 7 innings.  Given the runs scored and how Dickey did I have trouble seeing a AAA pitcher doing better.

Dickey's worst was two games allowing 6 runs then a shutout then 7 runs.  What the heck do you do with that?  6+ IP in 3 of those games, just 5 IP in the 7 run game.   Weird.  In the loses the Jays scored 5, 3, and 6 runs.  A minor leaguer might have saved the 5 and 6 run games but not the 3 run one.  The shutout came in a 4 run allowed game.

John, I fully agree with you. And I must say: the notion that a pitcher's medical status can be diagnosed by his ERA is a weird one. A high ERA can be a symptom of many things; it can't somehow be used as proof that a pitcher should have been on the DL.

Well, given a lack of medical info I was more looking to see if Dickey was hurting or helping the team and if he was on the DL would the team have been better off.  In his 4 game team losing streak it theoretically couldn't have ended up worse, but in all 4 games he threw 6+ innings.  A guy from AAA might only get 5 innings or even less leading to a drained pen and even more losses around those games.  His shortest game was 4 2/3 IP in the second game of the year, and 2 others that were 5 and 5 2/3 IP.  All the rest were 6+ IP which suggests he was healthy (managers tend to pull guys who are hurt fairly quick) and still helping the team by keeping the pen fresh (especially during stretches when we had guys like Ortiz (4 starts, 3 of 5 or less), Laffey, Nolin, Romero and Jenkins plus Rogers first 2 starts going 5 or less).

Dickey's worst case is being a workhorse (modern terms 6+ IP on a regular basis).  Best case is the shutout we saw this week.  If when hurt he still gets 6+ IP each time then he has a lot of value by not being on the DL.

It's hard to say if Pillar is ready or not, but it's easy to see that he's not on the 40-man roster.

OPS .802 in AA and 1.094 in AAA so far.