Don't want to see any monster shots tonight.

Thus far: Estrada 1 - Giancarlo 0.

Oooh, nice. I always liked the Tommy Hutton and Rich Waltz announcing crew.

i like this team.

how long until teams just stop letting lefties face us?

not that its much easier for rhp, of course.

Sweet first inning.  6 runs without a home run.  The only extra base hits are a pair of doubles.  Knocking out the starter in the first is great too especially in the first game of a series - good way to wear down their bullpen.

Yup, we can hit RHP too. This is fun.

Haren and Koehler are their best starter. Their best hitter last week?

SS Adeiny Hechavarria (7-for-18, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 5 R)

Aww, c'mon Angel! It's Gibby's birthday!

Well, Joey and Gibby picked a good game to get tossed from in the 2nd inning. Gibby can enjoy some bday sodas now.

Angel Hernandez is a joke.

Oh, my bad, apparently Joey wasn't ejected. Buck/Davidi lied to me.

I stand by the Angel Hernandez comment though.

At least we don't have to worry about this becoming a one run game.

*knocks on wood

Well Joey Bats getting tossed kills me on my fanduel team :(

nevermind lol

Irresistable force meets movable object.

He didn't get tossed. The TV crew assumed it was Jose, but it was Gibby in the dugout who got the heave. Maybe informed Angel his lack of eyesight was committing an act of sexual congress.

A lineup full of players who gets on base is so much fun when the pitchers do an average job.

I didn't watch tonight but that boxscore looks like a better than average performance for Estrada?  Agreed this lineup is fun to watch - and we don't even have Travis or Saunders.  Six straight and a nice looking first round pick?  I'll take it!

estrada looked good, though aside from Giancarlo its not much of a lineup.

this is easily the best offense i've ever seen the jays have.

It's a quality start. One homerun, but the key for Estrada is to limit the walks and he did that tonight.  6 strikeouts isn't bad either.

I will be attending my first game this season on Wednesday afternoon. I'd be up for meeting any of the Bauxite regulars. My e-mail is my user name (at)yahoo.ca.

this is easily the best offense i've ever seen the jays have.

Top three at least, but surely not better than WAMCO?  although that bench was pretty dreadful and ed sprague worse than i remembered.  but then we went and got Rickey Henderson....

Consider there are currently 10 catchers on disabled lists around the majors. Teams that could use an upgrade in catching include the D’backs, Braves, Red Sox, White Sox, Reds, Marlins, Mariners and Rays.

Navarro could be traded ?

On WhiteSox and D'Backs, MLB veteran Canadians play in their Triple-A team....

That was a fun offense... Henderson, White, Alomar, Molitor, Carter, Olerud, Fernandez, then Sprague and Borders.  The bench sucked but when you have 1-2-3 in batting average on the team plus Fernandez going 306/361/442 you don't need much more.  A 110 OPS+ for the team 847 runs #2 in the AL. Pitching had a 103 ERA+ which was OK, with a strong pen in Ward/Eichhorn/Cox/Castillo/Williams/Leiter (#6 starter).

This year a 118 OPS+ but a 91 ERA+.  Killed by Buehrle/Dickey/Hutchison having bad starts to the year.  4.28 ERA overall.  But a 2.03 ERA in June so far helps a lot (6-1).

That was a fun offense... Henderson, White, Alomar, Molitor, Carter, Olerud, Fernandez, then Sprague and Borders.

It's worth remembering that Henderson wasn't actually much good as a Jay. He arrived from Oakland with a 1023 OPS and then gave the Jays a 675. And then didn't hit much in the playoffs either.

yeah, i think this offense is better than wamco.

The WAMCO offence actually didn't lead the league in scoring.  The Tigers in '93 outscored the Jays by a significant margin.  The Jays of 2015 lead the league in scoring by well over 1/2 a run a game so far.  No one is hitting like Olerud did in 1993, but it's a very deep offence that regularly wears pitching staffs down.  The effectiveness with the running game is an added bonus. 

Also run scoring in general is down quite a bit from the early 90s which helps make the current version look better.

1993: Jays 5.23, 11% better than league (AL 4.71)
2015: Jays 5.32, 27% better than league (AL 4.18)

and what's crazy is that they haven't even been healthy or firing on all cylinders yet.

Sometimes replacement parts function more efficiently than the factory issued ones. Think Macier Izturis at 2B or Saunders bat instead of what Colabello has contributed.

The 1993 team probably had more luck than this team. One run games and all.
I also had a lot more faith in the 1993 pen than the pen of 10 years earlier.

But this team has 2 WCs, which that team did not. Also the 1983 & 1984 teams did not have any WCs.

So I should be optimistic. Maybe this team is better than the 1983 & 84 teams.

"Sometimes replacement parts function more efficiently than the factory issued ones. Think Macier Izturis at 2B or Saunders bat instead of what Colabello has contributed."

i think a healthy saunders would be an upgrade over colabello even with how well he's hit. and more likely it would be carrera that would have lost out on playing time more than cola.

and i doubt even a healthy izturis would have held travis back.

Rickey only hit .215 in '93 with the Jays, but he did get on base at a .356 clip. His BB & K numbers were within their normal ranges and his BABIP was .218, so I wonder if it was merely a month and a half of bad luck.

The best part about the current offense is that even if an important cog or two are missing or lagging, it still seems to function just fine. Reyes is down and Bautista's shoulder hurts? No problem, Donaldson/Travis/Martin can handle it. Now you have Reyes and Bautista heating up while Travis is on the DL, Martin cooled down for 2 weeks, and EE is injured. It's scary to think how good the offense could be with a healthy and performing Saunders and Encarnacion added to last night's lineup.

For those of you hoping for the Jays to acquire Soriano, he recently signed a minor-league contract with the Cubs.

And the Yankees are signing Sergio Santos.

And Travis instead of Goins.

This is a pretty darned good offence, and now that the pitching has been better than "terrible", results are following.  Here's hoping that they haven't dug themselves too much of a hole.

Rickey Henderson was hit on the hand by a pitch shortly after the Jays acquired him and it was generally thought at the time that this was why he had problems hitting. Even one handed, Rickey could always take a walk.

The discussion re: Colabello/Saunders was offence and as of yesterday, Colabello had the highest wRC+ on the team.

Let's see what Saunders looks like when he's back - not !00% he's still the same player he was prior to injury, though, yeah, he'll still be a better OF defender by far than Cola.

Well if this offense is better than WAMCO, we're gonna need a nickname for them - since WAMCO is the best nickname in Jays history?? obviously Doc Halladay was a great one. Johnny Mac was the Prime Minister of Defense. Joey Bats and the Crime Dog were solid, although I never really got Crime Dog. Back in the day my friends and I referred to Manny Lee as 'three pitch' which I'd like to nominate as Ryan Goins new nickname.

Just noticed that the Wikipedia entry on baseball nicknames has 28 teams and no blue jays team entry. in fact, the only jay on this list is Roberto "Robbie" Alomar, which is a pretty underwhelming entry.

You could call them Deep Blue.  Or the Kings of Pain (Josh Donaldson meets the Police). 

i wish Martin's first name was Hussel.

then we could call them JJJs, EH?

maybe JJJOsER, with the Js all pronounced spanishlike.

The J Wrecking Crew or the Wrecking J Crew? Hell I don't know.

Rainmen?

Easy: Jothreerm

(Jo x three + ee & rm)

FWIW, Wilner keeps promoting "The Gauntlet" as a thing.

ugh. wilner.

how about Jacks-e-mart?

Not bad --- maybe Jayseemart

The 1993 offense got quite a bit better as the year went on, but for a good chunk of the season it only went five deep. Sprague and Borders never were much with the bat, and the team had opened the year with Dick Schofield (.191/.294/.236) at short and Darren Jackson (.216/.250/.347) in an outfield corner. When Jackson was traded for Fernandez shortstop was upgraded but left field was still terrible. Turner Ward (.192/.287/.311), everyone!

Wow. Magpie, those guys make Goins and Pillar seem like members of Murderer's Row.

They weren't supposed to be that bad! Schofield was never expected to be a hitter, but all he had to do was replace Manuel Lee. But he got off to a slow start in 1993 before breaking his arm in May and missing the rest of the season. He would have pretty a decent year (by his standards, a fairly low bar) as the regular in 1994. And I believe Jackson had some kind of illness that bothered him the whole time he was here. Might have been a thyroid problem,.

Scott Copeland is coming up to start tomorrow's game, Sanchez being pushed back to the New York series. Presumably just watching his innings. Hopefully just watching his innings...

According to my recollection, McGriff only got the "Crime Dog" nick after he was traded to San Diego. I'm convinced he had a different nickname in T.O. but for the life of me I can't remember what it was.

Aaron Sanchez misses his start tomorrow to limit his innings. Scott Copeland will make the start. I assume Ryan Tepera will go down, although it could be Delabar.

Sanchez will start next week in New York.

Magpie, if i recall correctly, Jackson got food poisoning during his 'i just got traded to the world champs' celebration dinner.  We gave up Derek Bell and the immortal Stony Briggs, so i guess we ended up on the winning end with Fernandez coming back for Jackson. 

I think he became named after McGruff when he arrived in Atlanta.

So Sanchez will be 10 days between starts?

I assume a reliever will go down and another one will come up since nobody should be hitting the DL. There's Doubront and  Rasmussen for example. An extra lefty is always handy against the Yankees.

Why was Buerhle removed?

Did Osuna / Navarro try to blow a FB by Stanton?

Well that unnecessary pitching change worked out well.

I think Gibbons wanted Osuna to face the top of the Marlins' order.  It wasn't a bad call, but it didn't work out. 

Osuna/Navarro is not a great combination.  Martin receives exceptionally well, even when the pitch is not right where it is supposed to be.  Osuna had strike three on Stanton on a pitch on the outside corner, but Navarro was moving. 

I think Gibbons wanted Osuna to face the top of the Marlins' order. It wasn't a bad call, but it didn't work out.

Have to disagree Mike. I don't think you pull a starter who is still pitching well after 6 in a tie game, especially when he's coming off back to back strong starts. I saw classic Gibbons. The unnecessary pitching move that doesn't work. Even if Osuna had retired the side, if the game remains tied you need your pen later and don't use it unnecessarily.

I wouldn't have done it either, CBDC, but I didn't think that it was clearly wrong. Buehrle wasn't quite at his best and Osuna was rested. 

Edwin renders it largely academic. Blue Jays up to 5-12 in one run games this year.

Another walk off.

Why couldn't the whole season be like this!

Taking the parrot for a walk-off.

Buehrle removed after 94 pitches, Haren after 95.

yep, one run wins feel just as lucky as one run losses feel unlucky.

what the heck were navarro and osuna thinking in that stanton at bat? the one he hit out wasn't the only hittable pitch he saw.

"According to my recollection, McGriff only got the "Crime Dog" nick after he was traded to San Diego. I'm convinced he had a different nickname in T.O. but for the life of me I can't remember what it was."

yeah he definitely didn't have that nick in toronto. don't remember him having any, really.

Congratulations, Chris Heston. What is it about Giants throwing no-hitters?

Congratulations, Chris Heston.

Late in the game, to Bochy: "I'll give you the ball when you pry it from my cold, dead hands."

Heston: 0 hits, 0 walks, 3 HBP. Now you don't see that every day.

Back to .500.  It took a 7 game winning streak and they're still 4 games back.

Let's just walk Stanton tomorrow.

Death, taxes, and Gibbons being questioned for a pitching change. Guess that means the sun will come up tomorrow as well.

Buehrle was not pitching well and was missing in the heart of the plate way too often throughout that game. He had already thrown 94 pitches through 6 and as already indicated by Mike the top of the order was due up. When Osuna enters the game the LI is 1.5, high leverage and more so given the context of the batters he was facing. If Gibbons can't use his best reliever at what at that point is potentially the highest leverage situation in the game without criticism I don't know what the man can do to satisfy some people.

i liked the move to osuna no question.

buehrle wasn't on tonight, top of the order was coming up again.....and it was a smart move to bring osuna in to face the top of the order instead of saving him for the "setup" 8th.

For what it's worth, I had no problem with the pitching change. I thought Buehrle was doing fine, but he'd just finished his third trip through the order and he was coming off consecutive complete games.

Aaron Sanchez bumped for Scott Copeland this afternoon.

Here's the best I got:

"Jay Tripper" for the top 5 hitters (JtripsER)  "Jay Trippers" when Smoak is in there.

What's more once José Reyes comes up the PA system can play that riff from Day Tripper.

"We're going to score some runs, oh yeah
It won't take you sooooo long to find out
But you'll find out, it's going out, yeah"

RIFF

I know Osuna had poor location on that pitch - what surprised me was that late in the game with a tied score and 2 outs the team didn't pitch around Stanton.

Just noticed Zach Stewart, one of our former top prospects and the centrepiece of the haul we received for Scott Rolen (along with Josh Roenicke and that god-awful 3rd baseman) was released by the Angels minor league team to allow him to go to Korea.

Never forget the write-up of him pitching the game of his life, with every one of his pitches working, in a New Hampshire playoff game in front of Keith Law. Ended up just another dream-dashing prospect.

On a more ominous note, the East may get a bit tougher soon. Not mentioned in the minor league recap, but 4 shutout innings vs Dunedin last night were tossed by a rehabbing Matt Moore.

Figures.  Jays win 7 in a row and the Yankees do it at the same time.  Jays 7-3 in their last 10, so is Tampa.  At least Baltimore & Boston aren't hot and about to play each other at 7 tonight - I hope for a 23 inning game 13-12 score so both teams are out of pitchers before they play their next set.

Jays now 4 back of the Yankees and just 2 out of the wild card with Detroit & Tampa between the Jays and the 2 wild cards, Texas and Minnesota.

Actually, it's worse than that, John Northey. In the last ten, the Jays are 7-3 while the dreaded Yankees went 8-2. The Jays actually lost a game over the last ten.

The big series is coming up against the Yankees.

I don't like that they are sitting Sanchez tonight, in the same breath, if he comes in a throws a gem against the Yankees, I don't really what happens tonight.

Apparently Sanchez has "general soreness", which I guess is even worse than "colonel soreness", although strangely not as bad as "major soreness". On a personal level, the one I wouldn't want is "private soreness".

Jays Tripper

not bad. we're getting closer.

Today's starting lineup is almost exactly as I would have written it.  Encarnacion DHs, Smoak at first base and Carrera in left-field.   With Smoak, Carrera, Goins and Reyes all in the lineup, it doesn't tilt right as much as usual. 

Shi Davidi's article indicates that Sanchez was pushed back for overall body soreness or perhaps "some hockey injury".  Whatever.

Has the term "bomb squad" been used?

The big series is coming up against the Yankees.

I don't like that they are sitting Sanchez tonight, in the same breath, if he comes in a throws a gem against the Yankees, I don't really what happens tonight.

It's against the Mets.

"Bomb Squad" has not been used, as far as I can tell.  It's a good one. 

if we could just tweak that to make it jays or canada specific we might have something.

now that cola's streak is over he might find it harder to find playing time. the streak has covered a deteriorating batting line the past couple weeks.

wouldn't be surprised to see more of a carrera/valencia LF platoon and a smoak/cola 1b platoon going forward.

though cola might get a few more chances before being put in a strict platoon role.

I'd go with The Maple Bomb. It adds Canadiana, and sounds delicious.

Do we get a Sanchez-Syndergaard matchup? Whither Nicolino?

"J-bomb" is commonly used to refer to both tge Name of Jesus and to Jaeger bombs.

Do we get a Sanchez-Syndergaard matchup?

Syndergaard pitched last night and now that the Mets are back on a 5-man rotation, figures to pitch again Sunday, in advance of the Jays' arrival on Monday. Shame that we don't get to see him.

"J-bomb"

A few problems. One of the Js doesn't actually bomb (Reyes), though I suppose he is the fuse that lights the bomb. Or something. One of the Js doesn't actually play much (Smoak). And there are a few non-J bombers who are being omitted. It wasn't like WAMCO days where the rest of the lineup deserved no more than an et al.

hmm. how about:

Canadian Rakin'

Watching Koehler warm up. Wicked slider. Jays have work cut out.

Wicked slider.

I immediately heard this with a Mayor Quimby accent. I'm probably ready for a holiday.

feel free to post color commentary for ys, guys!

Copeland getting a ton of ground balls. Donaldson with an excellent barehand play to get Stanton, then a better one to get Ozuna.

Ichiro misplays a long Eddie fly into a double, then Smoak cranks a bomb. 4-0.

Martin cranks one opposite field. 5-0

Back to back jacks. Martin and Smoak. They are all over Koehler.

Watching Koehler warm up. Wicked slider. Jays have work cut out.

Apparently more Kristin Chenoweth Wicked than Steve Carlton wicked.

Carrera try to show he's not as much of an upgrade over Cola in left as we think. Could have had the Mathis single that preceded Ichiro's triple . Copeland does get out of it with only the 1 run allowed.

Props to Pillar and Goins who came within an eyelash of cutting down Ichiro at 3rd.

mmm. love the smell of that Canadian Rakin".

wOBAco road

Canadian rakin does have nice ring and is more inclusive than my bomb squad.

... and Reyes delivers a bomb.

So MMQB's, would you take out Copeland or let him pitch 8....quick!!

Koehler reaches 100 pitches during a Reyes AB, then Reyes reaches the left field seats 6-1.

Sam Dyson in.

J-bomb

Maybe you are onto something. Three J-bombs today.

New pitcher, Sam "the" Dyson, same result; more of the bombs. Maple Rakin' is just so good.

J-bomb

Imagine there are more than a few F-bombs coming out of the Marlin dugout.

Copeland should come out. Starting to lose location.

Some Canadian Rakin going on and a few "lumber-jacks" too.

Jays over .500 for first time since May 9.

Keep it rollin' boys.

one of the small joys of last season for me was when we destroyed Boston in 2 series in july to extinguish all their hope for a late season comeback and spur their deadline firesale.

it would be nice if we could crush them again this weekend and extinguish any of their hope even earlier this year.

It was just about a perfect day at the ballpark- Copeland working at a Buehrlesque pace and all the home runs.  The only thing that could have been better would have been if the storm had hit a little earlier and the roof was open, although there was something poetic about walking out of the closed dome after a 7-2 win at 2:45 into brilliant sunshine and warm temperatures. 

For those tracking the progress of sabermetrics in baseball, there was an item on the scoreboard when Kevin Pillar came to the plate- Defensive Runs Saved leaders- Arenado 15, Pillar 13, Cain 11...

Is anyone yet willing to describe Copeland as a prospect?  He seems to have won the 6th-starter position, ahead of Norris, temporarily at least.  He's a groundball machine, and his numbers across two levels in 2015 have been impressive, even if he doesn't strike out a lot of guys.  Nice to have some unexpected additional depth for the rotation -- you can never have too much depth. 

Nats 5 Yankees 4 in 11.
Yankees 7 game win streak done and their lead over Jays down to 3.

Copeland sent back to Buffalo after the game and Andrew Albers has been DFAed... opening up a spot on the 40-man roster, presumably for a middle infielder. So.... Andy Burns to make his MLB debut on Friday???

Copeland walks hitterd more than you would like. Exactly 1 per 3 innings in Buffalo. He strikes them out at about twice that rate, which turns out to be about the same rate at which he issues hits, which is really good.

He's sorta replaced Todd Redmond who is not doing well in Buffalo at all.

"....Andy Burns to make his MLB debut on Friday???...."

The promotion might actually go to Ramon Santiago, who was having a pretty good spring until he broke his collarbone.  His brief stint with Buffalo in recent days has been mediocre, but he has a lot of major-league experience and would probably hit a lot better than Jonathan Diaz, the other possible candidate for the back-up inflield role.

andrew miller DL - forearm strain

So, (ESPN, not sure what they use) WAR:
Jose Bautista - 1.9
Kevin Pillar    - 1.9

And, according to that fangraphs table, we're now projected to win 88.8 games, a .571 win pace, and 58% chance at the playoffs.. More wins R.o.S. than any team in the AL (Royals included). Only the Dodgers and Cardinals are projected to win more games the rest of the way.

Ramon Santiago makes a lot of sense.  You can start him for Goins or Reyes (especially on the turf so that Reyes gets a little rest from it) against a LHSP and you can bring him as a defensive replacement after you pinch-hit for Goins late.

Boyd for Albers makes sense also.

Does this series mean the Jays won the trade? jk

Winning is fun, let's see what happens after the streak ends.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/philadelphia-phillies-jonathan-papelbon-trade-talks-toronto-blue-jays-chicago-cubs-061015

Papelbon to Jays rumour very much alive. Rather pay more of his salary than give up better prospects, but that's me.

Please, Please. LEt's get Papelbon!

Apparently it's Phil Coke who will be getting the call up on Friday. Wilner points out that David Ortiz is 2/21 versus Coke. I also notice that the Panda is hitting an amazing .109/.140/.190 vs LH in 57 PA this year.

Would still like to have another MI tho. And what are the odds of needing both Tepera and Schultz in Boston?

If the Jays demote Schultz, they can promote both Coke and Santiago, which might be the best solution for now.

The Jays have had a chance to watch Coke closely in 3 outings for Buffalo, so they must have liked what they saw.  In 4 innings, he allowed no runs and just 2 hits.  He did give up 3 walks, but he also recorded 4 strikeouts.  His most recent outing was 2 scoreless innings on Tuesday with 2 strikeouts.

It's true that Coke had a poor 6.30 ERA for the Cubs this season, but his peripherals were okay: 9 strikeouts and 3 walks in 10 innings.  For what it's worth, the Cubs had agreed to pay him $2.25-million this year (his highest salary ever), which suggests that their scouts liked his performance in 2014. 

Coke still seems to have value as a decent lefty-killing specialist.  He held LHB to an OPS of just .691 last season.  His presence could allow Loup and Cecil to pitch shorter outings.  Could be useful against the Red Sox.

He held LHB to an OPS of just .691 last season.

In 2014, the league as a whole was .712 against LHP. Coke was little better than league average in this regard.

His presence could allow Loup and Cecil to pitch shorter outings.

Overuse has hardly been an issue. Neither is even averaging an inning per outing and they are on pace for a combined 100 innings this season.

If Coke is the answer, what is the question? Did Don Draper sell the Jays on the idea?

My comments were not clear. Let me try again.

In 2014, LHP held the entire AL, LHB and RHB combined, to a 712 OPS. LHP held LHB specifically to a 648 OPS. Coke held LHB to a 691 OPS. So in his one area of speciality, he was worse than the average LHP.

"And what are the odds of needing both Tepera and Schultz in Boston?"

Absolutely zero, if you mean those relievers specifically. I understand wanting another lefty to face the Red Sox, but an 8 man bullpen is a silly idea when you starters have pitched at least 6 innings in 18 of your last 21 games (pulled in the 6th in the other 3) and your team is fresh from an off day.

Agreed.  Better to have that extra hitter/runner on the bench and if the pen is taxed in a game call up someone then.  Guess they are worried Boston will be bats blazing this weekend.

Absolutely.  It would be particularly helpful to have a middle infielder to fill in if Reyes or Goins suffers an in-game injury or to take over Goins after a pinch-hitter.

The Coke move is puzzling on a number of levels.

Ortiz should start all 3 games, since all 3 of our starters are RHP's. Ortiz has been brutal vs LHP's with a .268 OPS - that's twice as bad as Goins bad. Farrell has started benching him vs LH starters, including yesterday's game..

So my thinking was, if Gibbons brings in Coke to face Oztiz, Farrell will simply pinch hit for him. Now Coke is stuck having to face a RHB - definitely not a situation in our favour. Boston has 2 other lefty hitters in Holt and De Aza. Holt has actually hit very well thus far against both types of pitchers, but actually has hit lefties better and with more power. So that leaves De Aza, who's been even more brutal vs LHP's and definitely would be pinch hit for.

So the Coke call-up makes no sense, except I missed the Farrell factor. Two days ago, Miguel Gonzalez was injured in the middle innings of a scoreless game and was replaced by McFarland, a lefty. Ortiz led off the 6th, was allowed to hit and grounded out. Orioles scored in the 7th, and RHP Roe pitching for Baltimore in the top of the eighth had men at 1st and 2nd with one out and Ortiz coming up. Buck replaces Roe with LH closer Britton. Again Ortiz was allowed to hit and struck out.

So was that the tipping point? Will Coke face Ortiz? I have no clue whatsoever now.

Coke is replacing Copeland on the roster. But Tepera could be optioned. Can Bo or would he have to be DFA'd? And Muni can't come up because there is no injury. That leaves Torreyes as the only MI on our 40 man. Someone would have to be DFA'd or waived to open a spot for Burns or Diaz, no?

As a third lefty in the pen (if you felt you needed it), you have Rasmussen and Hynes in Buffalo on the 40 man, and could have replaced Albers with Santiago or Burns or Diaz without dropping someone else. 

Incidentally, knowing that you wanted a lefty for Ortiz, I don't know why you would throw Aaron Loup yesterday.  He had pitched June 6, 7 and 9, and two days off would have served him well.  The Jays were ahead by 5 runs in the eighth inning when Loup came on. 

Ortiz is already salty about being benched one time against a lefty starter, so if I were a dugout phone, I would be pretty scared if he got pinch hit for.

Ortiz has not been hitting lefties well this year, but the magnitude seems to be greatly exaggerated by small sample size bad luck.  He has a BABIP of .138 against left-handed pitchers despite hitting many more line drives against LHPs (24%) than against RHP (18%).  Last year, he actually had better numbers against LHP than against RHP.  For his career, he has a typical (significant) platoon split for a LH hitter.

Mike, check out his Hard/Medium/Soft contact rates and compare them to last year. Dramatic decline vs lefties, and decline vs righties also. His line drives just aren't hit hard as often, and more likely to be caught.

If he were 29 rather than 39, hope for recovery would be much better, but odds are, though admittedly not 100%, he's reaching the washed up stage of his career.

Ortiz is already salty about being benched one time against a lefty starter, so if I were a dugout phone, I would be pretty scared if he got pinch hit for.

I think the aforementioned saltiness will mean that Farrell won't pinch-hit for Ortiz. If not starting is one level of indignity then being pinch-hit for is a whole other level.

I agree, hypobole, that Ortiz is likely in the decline phase of his career.  What I am saying is that the disparity in his slash lines between right and left is, to a significant degree, a sample size fluke.  Bottom line: he's probably not scary against RHPs, and he's bad but probably better than Ryan Goins against LHP. 

The posting of the DRS leaders on the scoreboard got me thinking a bit more about the current state of defensive statistics.  We have UZR and DRS, and now 3 years of Inside Edge, on Fangraphs.  I wondered if Inside Edge might throw some light on areas of difference.  I thought about Kevin Pillar, who DRS has as +20 in 1047 innings (according to BBRef and +21 in 1048 innings according to Fangraphs) and +8 according to UZR. 

Inside Edge has some dividers for the difficulty of plays- 1-10%, 10-40%, 40%-60%, 60%-90%, 90%-100%.  I checked on the total success rate for plays made by all outfielders in each category over 2013-2015.  In the 1-10% category, it was 7%; in the 10-40%, it was 32%, in the 40-60%, it was 57%, in the 60-90%, it was 82% and in the 90-100%, it was 99%.  Pillar made 2 of 12 1-10% plays (1 more than average), an amazing 8 of 8 10-40% plays (5.5 more than average), 5 of 6 40-60% plays (1.5 more than average), 9 of 10 60%-90% plays (.5 more than average) and 252 out 253 90%-100% plays (1 more than average).  That totals 9.5 plays more than average.  You'd have to make a conversion to plays more than replacement and then from plays to runs (a play in the outfield is probably worth about .85 runs because of the possibility of doubles and triples.  You'd also have to add in run values for his arm (DRS has +5 and UZR has it +3).  I am pretty sure that you'll end up with a figure about halfway between the DRS and UZR figures, using the Inside Edge number.  Anyways, +14 over 1047 innings or +20 over 150 games passes the smell test.

The significance for WAR calculations on a player like Pillar is huge.  Fangraphs using UZR has him at 1.2 over his career (about 1.7/150G) and BBRef using DRS has him at 2.6 over his career (about 3.7/150G).  It's hard to believe that you can be a slightly above average player hitting .239/.277/.362 but it looks like he might be.

Non-Jays, but Ex-Jays note.

Shaun Marcum 7 shutout innings (2H, 0 BB, 5 K) in the 6-0 win for Cleveland over the Mariners.

Loser J.A. Happ lasted just 2.1 (6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K).

I agree, hypobole, that Ortiz is likely in the decline phase of his career.

That's one way to put it. I think his career took off when he started taking steroids at 26. He seemed to have switched to something else at age 34 when age caught up with him. He's going to hit 40 this year, so I don't think there is anything out there that can slow the aging anymore.

Are you sure that Ortiz' success is attributable to steroids at age 26?  He was in the Eastern League at age 21 along with Torii Hunter at the same age.  Ortiz hit .322/.379/.585 and Hunter hit .231/.305/.338.  At age 22, he was in the major leagues and hitting .277/.371/.446.  By age 25, his top BBRef comps were Mo Vaughn and Willie Mays Aikens.  What was most unusual about Ortiz was not his development at age 26, but that he was able to sustain it for so long given his size.  If you want to credit PEDs for that, you certainly have an argument. 

in fairness, we have no idea when he started using.

Wade Miley blew up on Farrell after being told he was getting lifted. Oh John!

in fairness, we have no idea when he started using.

Right.  He may have been using since he was Bar Mitzvahed (I always wondered why these events are so expensive, but when you factor in the PED budget it makes sense...). Seriously, it's one thing to say that PEDS have helped Ortiz over his career as they did for Bonds, but the specifics about how they may have helped him at ages 26 and 34 is pretty wild speculation.

On another note, the Red Sox are sending a lefty to face Estrada (as the Marlins did earlier this week). As the song goes, when will they ever learn? It's nice for Estrada because he really does not have to worry about giving up a couple of runs.

Mike, the Estrada game may be a bit less lopsided than you believe. Rodriguez came into the season as one of the best prospects in baseball and despite having turned 22 a couple of months ago, has pitched like a vet. Sub-3 ERA in Pawtucket with a 44/7 K/BB ratio in 48 IP.

Has a 0.44 ERA in 3 MLB starts although fueled by a [possibly :)] unsustainable .149 BABIP.

21/7 K/BB over 20.2 IP. After only 3 starts he's tied for 2nd among all BoSox pitchers with 0.5 fWAR. He's a bit better than Brad Hand, in my estimation at least.

I didn't mean to suggest that Rodriguez was going to get touched to the extent that Hand was.  It's just that the Jays are hitting .310/.368/.495 against LHPs of all stripes and batters account for 2/3 of the outcomes of confrontations.  If you've got Chris Sale or David Price,  it is one thing to send him out but it's another story with just about any other lefthander.

Teams have noticed this to some degree.  The Jays have almost 4 times the number of PAs against RHPs as compared with LHPs.  League average is just over 2.5 times the number of PAs against RHPs as compared with LHPs. 

Incidentally, I drilled down a bit on Rodriguez' splits so far.  In Fenway, he has an .067 BABIP against RH batters.  Those right-handed batters have hit 25% line drives, 37.5%  fly balls and 37.5% ground balls.  The contact has been almost exclusively not soft. 

He does throw strikes and he does miss bats.  I'd put the over/under on the Blue Jays scoring runs at 5.

Mike, is that 5 total or 5 vs ER?

5 total.  Rodriguez goes 5 innings and gives up 3 runs.  There you go, you can skip 5 half-innings and not worry about missing anything!

erod's main weapon is his fastball.

we love fastballs.

Mike Wilner tweets that Encarnacion will be DHing tonight with Colabello in left-field and Smoak at first base.  It is well and truly unfair to ask Colabello to play left-field in Boston. 

cola - hanram defensive matchup in LF should be hilarious.