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The Blue Jays play the first of 13 games against the Yankees in a weekend set at the Bronx Zoo featuring the top two teams in the American League East.

Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Friday at 7:05 pm ET - R.A. Dickey (6-10, 4.06) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (11-2, 4.30)
Saturday at 1:05 pm ET - David Price (10-4, 2.45) vs. Ivan Nova (4-3, 3.10)
Sunday at 1:05 pm ET - Marco Estrada (9-6, 3.40) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (8-4, 3.84)

The 61-46 Yankees are coming off a series victory at home against Boston by winning the first and third games of their three-game series and are 6-4 in their last 10 games.

The Jays just finished an 8-2 homestand that saw them sweep Minnesota in four straight after winning three of four against Kansas City and splitting a two-game set against Philadelphia. Their 58-52 record puts them 4-1/2 games back of the Yankees for top spot in the AL East and six games back in the loss column. Toronto holds the final wild card spot, 1-1/2 games ahead of Baltimore but the O's have played three fewer games and are even in the loss column. They have won four of six so far from New York this season, taking two of three to start the season at Yankees Stadium.
Blue Jays @ Yankees - August 7-9 | 343 comments | Create New Account
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Lylemcr - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#308062) #
This is where the rubber hits the road! Go team
Mylegacy - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#308064) #
OK -  As we ALL KNOW - our offense is light years ahead of all others! Right?

What follows is a chart showing the 1 - 9 batting order for tonight's game ex: 1) Tulo 956 (OPS), Ellsbury 728 (OPS)

1) Tulo 956, Ellsbury 728
2) Donaldson 932, Gardner 819
3) Bautista 857, ARod 924
4) EE 827, Tex 944
5) Smoak 764, McCann 799
6) Martin 800, Beltran 757
7) Goins 627, Headley 723
8) Pillar 679, Gregorious 651
9) Revere 523, Drew 652

Toronto TOTAL OPS:  6965, AVE OPS: 733.9
Yankees TOTAL OPS: 6997, AVE OPS: 777.4

SO - lets not believe the BS of our offensive invincibility. This is gonna be a 13 game, old fashioned, fight to the finish.

Let the games begin, and remember - no prisoners!

China fan - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#308065) #
Revere's OPS should be drawn from his entire season, not from his very limited Jays career (only 20 ABs).   His season OPS is .699.   So that puts the Jays back in front of the Yankees in cumulative hitting performance!
China fan - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#308066) #
The Orioles have DFA'd Travis Snider.  The Jays need a 4th outfielder.  Anyone think the Jays should try to pick up Snider?
christaylor - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#308067) #
Just heard on SportsNet, "The enormity of this Blue Jays - Yankees series..."

Kids don't use the word enormity when talking about sports, you'll look foolish to someone.

That said, they are the Evil Empire, I guess...
China fan - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#308068) #
That last question is designed to be provocative, not realistic, of course.   The Jays need a 4th outfielder who can play CF.  Snider can't do that.
Cracka - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#308069) #
Great analysis on Snider's issues here: http://www.camdenchat.com/2015/8/7/9107893/theres-something-wrong-with-travis-sniders-swing

In summary, he's lost the ability to hit inside strikes or high strikes in a rather shocking fashion. His swing is clearly broken.
John Northey - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#308070) #
Surprising to see Snider DFA'ed.  but his OPS+ is just 83 and he hasn't played CF since 2011 when he was still a Blue Jay.  His OPS is sub 700 vs both LHP and RHP.  he sucked in Baltimore with a sub 600 OPS vs a 726 elsewhere.  Has a 1000+ OPS vs the Jays this year.  Nah, don't see any spot for him unless the Jays think they know what is wrong and coudl get him going again.  Claim and try to send down maybe...
hypobole - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#308071) #
Don't remember Jonah Keri's Grantland piece on how AA acquired Tulo and Price being posted, so here's the link:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-2015-trade-deadline-alex-anthopolous-interview-david-price-troy-tulowitzki-blue-jays/?ex_cid=story-twitter
CeeBee - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#308072) #
Ben Revere has played 404 MLB games in center field. Snider is a left handed bat...... Can he be fixed? More questions than answers it seems but I do wonder about it.
uglyone - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#308073) #
Cracka is that article from 2008?
Magpie - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#308074) #
Snider is a left handed bat...... Can he be fixed?

Over the last five seasons, he's hit .239/.303/.373 - it may be less a matter of fixing the guy so much as seeing him for what he is.
CeeBee - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#308075) #
Either my glasses are fogged up or I've got cataracts. For some reason I keep seeing a high 1st round pick who seemed to be the future slugger we all wanted. Heck, If Bautista was worth a flier back in the day. Yeah, I'm dreaming.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#308076) #
Daniel Norris got lit up for 9 hits in 3 innings tonight. I want to see him do well because I like him, but not TOO well because we traded him. I'm sure he'll bounce back from this in any case.
Magpie - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#308077) #
Ah, the 30 year old memories of old ballplayers! They didn't pinch hit for Tabler in his 4 hit game on Opening Day against Charlie Hough in 1984. Mike Hargrove replaced him defensively at 1B in the bottom of the seventh. And only two of his four hits were against Hough. Both came in a bat-around second inning, that knocked Hough out of the game.
Magpie - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#308078) #
Buck's 46 year-old memory of his MLB debut looks pretty solid...
Jimbag - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#308079) #
Definitely no interest in Snider, at least on my part. Despite his being a LHB, if there wasn't room for Valencia in this lineup, then it's too crowded for Snider.
John Northey - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#308080) #
Sigh.  6 pitches 3 outs with a single mixed in.  Not the way to win guys.
Jimbag - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#308081) #
Hip, hip, Bautista.
John Northey - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#308082) #
And the releasing game continues "Rangers Release Wandy Rodriguez" via MLB Trade Rumors...a bit of a surprise he has an 84 ERA+ 4.29 FIP and it wasn't that long ago he was a much sought after commodity.  Kind of surprised he is just getting the ML Minimum this year but his 2014 was horrid (54 ERA+ in just 6 starts).  I'd consider him for the team depending what scouts say - he is a #5 guy and might be decent in that role.  He certainly was doing better than Hutchison (73 ERA+ 4.02 FIP).  Give Hutch some pen time maybe.  I'd first see if Wandy will go to AAA and make Buffalo a bit stronger for the stretch run.
Magpie - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#308083) #
Yankees fans are a little distressed that Miller came out of the game after throwing six pitches. He did pitch last night.
John Northey - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#308084) #
Gotta love this pen.  Who knew we could say that this season eh?  A 20 year old closer, Cecil back to being good in his ideal role (setup), Hawkins is a very nice addition too.  Tomorrow we have a rested Lowe, Hendriks, Shultz and Loup available and given the 3 used tonight had under 10 pitches each all should be there if needed as well.  Price vs Nova tomorrow - I like those odds.  Estrada vs Tanaka on Sunday - not as nice odds.

Just 3 1/2 back now.  2 up on Baltimore for the last wild card,  tied with the Angels for the top wild card.  Sweet.

Lylemcr - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#308085) #
The Jays fans are so environmentally friendly. They love to recycle.

Whoo hoo! Dickey looked great!

I have to admit, the Yankees have a really good pitching staff. The offense is good too. Tough battles! Good job Jays!
BlueJayWay - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#308086) #
Betances certainly not available tomorrow. Miller might not be either...
JB21 - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#308087) #
I read tonight that the Jays play the Yankees 12 more times this year and as of today Price is lined up to pitch 4 of those 12.
hypobole - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 12:48 AM EDT (#308088) #
Per ESPN; the 99 mph heater Donaldson smacked over the left field wall was the fastest pitch hit for a HR this season.

Per me; Gibbons seems much more competent when he gets 7 solid from his starter and has a bullpen that doesn't cough up crucial runs.
hypobole - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#308089) #
Of course Josh's homer went to right, Bautista's to left. Going to bed now.
uglyone - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:08 AM EDT (#308090) #
that was a legit statement game from the jays, and a huge statement from Joey Bats, who despite all the additions ia still the man on this team.

many may poohpooh it but a whole bunch of intangible awesomeness went down tonight.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 05:27 AM EDT (#308093) #
It was mentioned postgame that Osuna has stated that he prefers the closer role to starting. Will the Jays still try him in the starting rotation next year, or will they leave him as the closer at which he performs very well ? Personally I take great comfort in seeing him enter the game. He always seems calm, throws strikes and works effectively, something we've been lacking in the closer role for a while.
whiterasta80 - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 05:49 AM EDT (#308094) #
It's risky enough converting a closer to starter. For every Chris Sale there is a Daniel Bard. If the pitcher isn't of the mentality that he desperately wants to start then I'd be hesitant to change roles.

Big win. Let's get the next one so that we can really put the squeeze on them.

92-93 - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#308095) #
"If there wasn't room for Valencia..."

If the Jays had kept Valencia around, he would've been the one at 2nd after they PH for Goins, and I doubt he turns the double play with Donaldson in the 9th; Josh & Muni looked fantastic on that one.
uglyone - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#308097) #
daniel bard was a awful SP in the minors. 22 and sucking in A ball he was switched to the pen and made the bigs a couple years later. his career arc and performance is similar to a guy like Loup.

osuna is a 20yr old dominant SP prospect. relegating him to being a reliever would be criminal.
King Ryan - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#308098) #
I haven't seen it mentioned that Donaldson has made it to 30 HR and 30 2B, and that he's the first Jay to do so since 2010. He has a shot at 40/40, which would be just the 37th in major league history. Only Jays to do that are Delgado in 2000 and Shawn Green in 1999.
John Northey - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#308099) #
Bautista is at 20 2B, 25 HR so he could do 30-30 in that way.  Encarnacion has 21 of each. 
The traditional 30-30 (HR-SB) isn't going to have any Jay close this year.  Pillar now leads with 15 SB and no one else on the roster has more than 5.
OPS+ over 120 as a Jay: Donaldson, Tulo, Bautista, Colabello, Travis (DL), Encarnacion, Martin.  Valencia finished at 129.
Only Smoak is also over 100 (Tolleson was too)
Ugly is Pillar at 88 (super D though), Navarro at 76 (gotta be tempting to just release him), Goins 73, Revere is horrid so far at 47, Kawasaki at 47 isn't a shock
Estrada is at 88 - ahead of Navarro with his 1 for 3.

If AA is still looking for help I'd say backup catcher is a spot as is 1B/LF still but Pompey could cover LF and Thole should be the backup catcher right now.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#308100) #
Osuna needs to be tried as a starter next season. Its how he can contribute the most to the team, and he can be absolutely filthy.

Maybe if you offer Lowe the closers job you can resign him to a decent rate. Hendricks and Cecil can handle setup duties and maybe Hutch to the pen can restore some depth all around.
Jimbag - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#308102) #
"If the Jays had kept Valencia around, he would've been the one at 2nd after they PH for Goins, and I doubt he turns the double play with Donaldson in the 9th"

You may have misunderstood. My argument regarding Travis / Valencia was intended to be anti-Travis, not pro-Valencia. As in, the currently better hitting and more defensively versatile player is no longer here, why would his roster spot be taken by someone inferior in both regards?

Also, I agree with Uglyone about the intangibles. I've made this comment to friends lately: the Jays over the past 10 games or so have reminded me of the '86 Mets out on the field (and minus the mouth). They look confident, and it's not just a case of me projecting (or at least not entirely). Yesterday was the first game in the first of what I hope will be 4 meaningful series with the Yankees - the first inning featured Tulo's taking and fouling off a bunch of close pitches (not the sort of thing a nervous batter pulls off), Donaldson's opposite field HR, Bautista reaching, etc. etc.  All that facing a pitcher most of them were unfamiliar with. Every swing of the bat looked controlled...it just seemed like the Jays established a presence up there. Or maybe I am just projecting. Either way, I enjoyed it!
China fan - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#308103) #
"....It was mentioned postgame that Osuna has stated that he prefers the closer role to starting...."

Osuna did say this, in an interesting profile by John Lott yesterday.  (He didn't specify "closer" -- he just said he likes to pitch every day, and he prefers that over the starter role.)  But I didn't read it as anything definitive.  Osuna will do what the club wants.  However, he certainly looks great as the closer, and the bullpen as a whole is looking fantastic.  Imagine if the Jays had had this bullpen at the start of the year?  They would be in the first place with a healthy lead over the Yankees for sure. 

I know we're not supposed to look ahead to next year, but it will be tempting to keep at least one of Osuna and Sanchez as the cornerstone of the bullpen.  With the other returnees (Schultz, Loup, Hendriks, Tepera, Delabar, Jenkins), the Jays would already have a strong 2016 bullpen nearly nailed down already.  But let's see what Anthopoulos is able to do on the free-agent and trade market in the off-season.

Osuna only threw 6 pitches last night and should be available today if the Jays need him.  But the well-rested Sanchez will be the strongest option in the bullpen today, and he should be able to go two innings.  Assuming that Price can go 7 innings, the rest of the bullpen can rest up for tomorrow, when the need could be greater.

There was post-game speculation last night that the Jays could demote a reliever to make room for Pompey, but it didn't happen.  Gibbons probably wants to get through the Yankees series before losing a reliever.

Today's lineup is exactly the same as the winning lineup of last night.  I'm a bit surprised to see Smoak still in the lineup after his poor game yesterday.  Would have thought it was Colabello's turn.  It was disappointing to see Smoak unable to cash in the runner from 3rd base with only one out in the 2nd inning last night.  Smoak also got some criticism for his handling of a rundown on the base paths, but I didn't see it.  Can anyone comment on that play?
China fan - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#308104) #
In other news, Ezequiel Carrera has been activated by Buffalo, so he has obviously accepted the assignment without seeking free-agent status.  As Mike noted in our earlier discussion, Carrera should be eligible to return to the Jays on Aug. 10 or 11 (ten days after he was demoted), so perhaps the Jays will promote him as the 4th outfielder in time for the next series, rather than Pompey.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#308105) #
I see Gibbons is going night/day with Martin. Not a fan of that. I think this would have been a good game for the lineup suggested with Navarro catching, Edwin at first and give Colabello DH.

Also, the better choice wasn't between Valencia and Kawasaki. It was Valencia or the 8th reliever. I had advocated a 2b call up when Valencia was here, to pinch hit for Goins. Even with the 8th reliever though, losing Valencia vs sending down Colabello was a regretttable choice imo.
jensan - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#308106) #
Maybe the reason to release Valencia was a payroll decision, as noted Philadelphia gave monies in the trade for Revere and A's gave monies for Doubront.
Valencia's salary may have exceeded the salary cap that has been imposed on AA by Rogers.
I am surprised the community has not addressed that issue in the conversation. Yes the amount is only less than $ 1 Million net. But a salary cap is a salary cap.
eudaimon - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#308107) #
I don't think Valencia's release had anything to do with payroll. I think it had more to do with playing time. Really, I can't think of a time since the moves where he would have played even an inning. I much prefer Revere in LF vs both LHP and RHP given his much better defense, his lack of significant platoon splits, and the fact that his OBP is roughly the same as Valencia's even in a career year. I don't see him getting playing time anywhere else either: Donaldson's been too hot to give a day off to, Encarnacion plays about half his games at 1B and is better spelled by someone who can hit righties (Colabello or Smoak, the former of which might be getting hot again in case you missed it), and he isn't very good anywhere else.
jerjapan - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#308108) #
Valencia was only due about half a million for the rest of the season, not 1 million.

As for the relief crew, the 8 man pen seems here to stay.  it's pretty clear what the Jays are going to do, they've been doing it for a while now and have finally got the personnel to run with hard throwing guys with strike-out stuff from the moment a starter leaves the game.  while the rotation has improved, we still have guys in Hutch, Estrada and Dickey (if he starts getting hittable third time through the order) that sometimes need the early hook.  guys like Schultz and Hendricks can easily go two innings, but the days of the classic long man are over.  the FO seems to believe that this approach prevents injuries and with so many young starters in the mix last year and this year, I can understand the logic.  the offense is good enough that we can score in bunches, making it important to keep impact arms coming out. 

I imagine that we continue to flip between 7 and 8 man pens as long as Gibby and AA are here.

and China Fan, while I agree that next years pen could be great, sadly for him, Chad Jenkins isn't going to be one of those arms.  He just doesn't get the Ks the team wants - as witnessed by him getting passed on the depth chart by minor league free agents - guys like colt hynes, andrew albers and jeff francis have more MLB innings than he does this year.  he's out of options at the end of this year which makes him a Minor league FA i believe?  he should get the heck outta dodge and head to some big national league park. 

Kudos to Uglyone for calling this at the start of the year when I was one of many people clamouring for FA relief help, but this pen has sorted itself into great shape. 

Chuck - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#308109) #
5 strikes to Bautista. A robot umpire would have ended the AB much sooner.
John Northey - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#308110) #
Valencia is only making $1.6 mil this year.  A minimum wage replacement would be $500k so a spread of $1.1 mil over a full season but we're around 2/3rds through so net savings at most would be 730k.  If the Jays are that tight right now that is a major issue.  Luckily they are winning right now (6 straight with Price going today).  The series with Minnesota saw over 25k every game...back in May the Yankees drew under 20k on a Monday.  Clearly fan interest is way up and I'd bet TV ratings are double May's levels.  Keep that up through the end of September and the Jays will make a boatload for Rogers.
John Northey - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#308111) #
Reverse my total for Valencia...337k for the rest of the season.  I used 2/3rd left instead of 2/3 done.  Doh.
China fan - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#308112) #
"....at the start of the year when I was one of many people clamouring for FA relief help, but this pen has sorted itself into great shape...."

Sure, but it took a half-season of blown saves to sort out the bullpen.  I still think the Jays should have been more aggressive in getting one or two extra relief arms at some point after the end of last season.  Two or three extra wins could still spell the difference in the AL race.

And I agree that Jenkins is a long-shot to make the bullpen next year, but I included him as a depth piece on the list, in case the Jays want another long man in the bullpen.
China fan - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#308113) #
"...he's out of options at the end of this year which makes him a Minor league FA i believe..."

If I understand the rules correctly, he won't be a FA and he will still be controlled by the Jays, but he will be out of options.  So if he doesn't make the team out of spring training, the Jays cannot demote him without exposing him to waivers.  That's actually another reason why they might keep him around as the 7th or 8th man in the bullpen, because otherwise they lose him.  But on the other hand, it won't be a huge loss, so probably he'll just be waived or traded if he isn't one of the 7 best relievers in the spring.
rtcaino - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#308114) #
Good two strike approach so far by the Jays. Particularly impressed with Pillar's AB.

45 pitches through two for Nova.
eudaimon - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#308115) #
I love how this team is getting in some great ABs up and down the lineup. Seems like everyone is just a bit more patient. Nova at 45 pitches through 2 - at that pace he will be done after 5 innings. We've done this to a lot of great pitchers recently.

In other news: Billy Butler is batting .239 - .306 - .366 on the first year of his 3 year 30 million contract with Oakland. That line combined with his terrible defense makes him worth -0.9 Fangraphs WAR. It was a strange signing at the time and seems even stranger now considering they could have 2 theoretical Josh Donaldsons for the same price. This deal in isolation makes me wonder if Beane isn't quite as much of a genius as we often make him out to be. What would Oakland's record be if they had Donaldson instead of Lawrie, anyone else in place of Butler, and 5 million to spend on someone else?

rtcaino - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#308116) #
Pennington is a curious acquisition. May be more of a reflection of Travis' health than anything.

I was happy with Goins and Muni for IF depth.
JB21 - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#308117) #
What's with all the bunting lately?
whiterasta80 - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#308118) #
Yeah pennington is utterly puzzling, unless I'm seriously underrating his Defense.
JB21 - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#308119) #
They're giving up Lugo for Pennington + cash. A little odd.
Lylemcr - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#308120) #
IT sounds like it is for Lugo....
jerjapan - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#308121) #
Lugo's not a big loss. Pennington's a scrappy versatile guy with a good glove. Marginal upgrade on mune if Travis is out for longer. Sucks for mune though, I like having him on the team!
Magpie - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#308122) #
What's with all the bunting lately?

Close games, bottom of the lineup.

Gibbons came into the season with 27 ejections as Jays manager, one behind Gaston - he's all by himself now with 32. (Gaston was also kicked out of 32 games, but he was ejected twice as a player and twice as a coach.) Gibbons led the league in this little-followed stat in 2005, Gaston in 1990 and 1995. Bobby Cox was kicked out of 21 games in his four seasons here, leading the AL in 1983 and 1984 - his 8 ejections in 1984 is the high-water mark for a Toronto manager. It was nothing for Cox, of course, who was kicked out of another 140 games in Atlanta, led NL managers in ejections 11 times, and managed to get into double figures three times, peaking with 11 early exits in 2001.

The rest of 'em:
Jimy Williams  - 10
Roy Hartsfield -  8
John Farrell   -  5
Jim Fregosi    -  5
Carlos Tosca   -  5
Bobby Mattick  -  4
Buck Martinez  -  2
Tim Johnson    -  1
It's just astounding to me that Gene Tenace was never kicked out of a game, as a coach or manager (twice as a player.)
Chuck - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#308123) #
Smoaked it.
Magpie - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#308124) #
Smoaked it!
Lylemcr - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#308125) #
Holy Smoak!
Spifficus - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#308126) #
... there's fire.
eudaimon - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#308127) #
Pennington is likely a minor upgrade on Kawasaki both offensively and defensively. He only really matters until Travis comes back, which I presume will be after the rosters expand in September meaning he can stick around longer. A good trade, though I feel bad for Muni and was satisfied with him as our 25th man. Lugo doesn't seem like much of a prospect at this point.

Also, Smoak!

Magpie - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#308128) #
Nice. typing there, Chuck!

I think going for the exclamation mark messed me up. Yeah, that's the ticket...
uglyone - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#308129) #
#carcrashes
JB21 - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#308130) #
#smoaked!!
Magpie - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#308131) #
That inning was brought to you by the Yankees' tired bullpen, as Girardi tried to squeez just one more inning from his starter. Nova only came off the DL in late June, and hadn't thrown more than 94 pitches in a game this season.
CeeBee - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#308132) #
Don't know what Justin's smoaking but it's good!
Gerry - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#308133) #
Lugo for Pennington is an all-in move. How many at-bats will Pennington get? I guess AA is buying insurance and a right handed bat to platoon with Goins.
CeeBee - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#308134) #
With this offense pitchers should be begging to play for the Jays. If they can win something meaningful later this fall that could help as well.
Gerry - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#308135) #
Nova walked Encarnacion on 4 pitches. He then threw an outside breaking ball to Smoak for pitch one and Smoak swung at it. I was yelling at my TV. Nova tried another one but it got too much of the plate and I stopped yelling.
JB21 - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#308136) #
Funny, that's when I started yelling.
eudaimon - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#308137) #
Buck and Tabler talking of discord in the Yankees clubhouse. Gotta love it.
Chuck - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#308138) #
Tigers' clubhouse.
Magpie - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#308139) #
Detroit's also got a catcher named McCann.
Chuck - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#308140) #
Yes the amount is only less than $ 1 Million net. But a salary cap is a salary cap.

Tautology notwithstanding, I would guess that the Pennington acquisiton ($3.3M salary) puts to rest this hypothesis.

eudaimon - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#308141) #
Oops!
Chuck - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#308142) #
Lead big enough for Loup yet?
Magpie - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#308143) #
Ryan Goins can pick it. Like a Nashville cat or something.
ogator - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#308144) #
"Playin' since they'se babies..."
uglyone - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#308145) #
One more game, Marco, to complete this seismic shift.
JB21 - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#308146) #
2.5 games back
China fan - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#308147) #
".... I'm a bit surprised to see Smoak still in the lineup after his poor game yesterday....."

I was wrong about that!

"...the well-rested Sanchez will be the strongest option in the bullpen today, and he should be able to go two innings.  Assuming that Price can go 7 innings..."

But I was partially right about this, at least!  Price indeed went 7 innings, and Sanchez was the first to get the call in the bullpen.

With the score 6-0 by this point in the game, Gibbons smartly limited Sanchez to just one inning (12 pitches) to keep him available for tomorrow.  Every reliever except perhaps Lowe should be available tomorrow, which is nice.
JB21 - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#308148) #
Shi Davidi just tweeted that a group of Jays fans in LF were doing a roll call for the Jays players towards the end of the game, up 6-0, in Yankee stadium.

Pretty freaking awesome.
Alex Obal - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#308149) #
#6Gods

Price is completely, totally, utterly, Buehrle-level FOS on the mound. Any pitch, anyone, any time. He may not have Buehrle's command (or tempo), but he's definitely got the unpredictability and cocksure confidence. And better stuff. He's fun to watch.
uglyone - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#308150) #
yeah heard the roll call. that was awesome.
eudaimon - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#308151) #
I wonder if Smoak got the call mostly due to the short porch in right field. Gives an advantage to lefty bats. Either way, it worked out. Buck and Tabler were talking about how he's been working with Jacoby to shorten his swing as well.
hypobole - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#308152) #
Smoak should play 1st against all RH starters. He's the best defensive 1st baseman we have. If Gibby wants to give up some defence for offence, Cola can play 1st vs lefty starters.

Take Eddie's glove away for the foreseeable future. He is a rare breed that seems to hit as well or better at DH. He is injured, shoulder issues earlier, hand?/thumb? now. Minimize his wear and tear.
jerjapan - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#308153) #
EE at first once in a while gives bautista time at dh ... If only we had a 4th OF... I'm with mike green in wanting Pompey up. For a team that's 'going for it' that seems like a win now move. He wouldn't be ridng the pine, all the OFers need some time off and he'd be a real pinch running weapon. Can't remember the last time we had one of them
robertdudek - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#308154) #
Smoak should play 1st against all RH starters. He's the best defensive 1st baseman we have. If Gibby wants to give up some defence for offence, Cola can play 1st vs lefty starters. I would add, as well as any start Hutchison makes. Smoak is just so much better defensively than Cola/EE that it makes sense to start him 5 out of every 6 games. I also want Revere to bat 7th (or even 6th in front of Martin occasionally), Pillar 8th and Goins 9th. That way, Revere, one of the best base-stealers in the league, can have the green light and not worry about being erased in front of Tulo or Donaldson. Also, Revere's general base-running skills have more relative value with non-HR hitters batting behind him. Bauxites - if anyone is planning to attend the Thursday matinee against Oakland (Dickey v Gray is the matchup) send me an e-mail: robertdudek (at) yahoo.ca. I will be in the 100s level.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#308155) #
That was another satisfying win.  Marcus Stroman is headed to Florida.  Devon Travis will hopefully return fairly soon.  It's all good.

I wonder what the shape of the bench/pen will be once Travis returns- Goins, Navarro and Colabello seem obvious.  I imagine that they'll be moving to a 7 man pen, but that leaves room for only one of Pennington and an outfielder.  It's not clear to me what the plan is. 

hypobole - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#308156) #
"EE at first once in a while gives bautista time at dh"

Even an injury plagued EE? If Bautista needs DH time (which he shouldn't with the off days coming up), give Eddie the day off. Unless EE is healthier than he seems.
robertdudek - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#308157) #
The Yankees' series next weekend is sold out on the Blue Jays site. Secondary market tickets are mostly double face value and up. The glory days have returned.
raptorsaddict - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#308158) #
I'd love to see some type of estimation of what this means for Rogers in terms of revenue from the gate and concessions and merchandise. I'd also like to know what the difference in revenue is for a game that draws 500k on tv versus one that draws a million.



NYJaysFan36 - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#308159) #
How long has 45,766 been the sellout figure and what were the most recent changes? I read 49,282 at other sources.
Gerry - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#308160) #
I think the standing area in centrefield reduces capacity as all those people have seats elsewhere. Also I don't know what they do about luxury boxes, years ago they were all sold whereas now they are only about 50% sold.
robertdudek - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#308161) #
When Rogers remodelled the stadium, they made the concourses on the 100 level much wider, which resulted in the removal of several rows in the 100 level.
hypobole - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#308162) #
Do advertisers pay more/less depending on ratings for individual games? I would guess higher ratings just mean Sportsnet can charge more next year. Doesn't seem to be much Rogers commercial filler (which suggests unsold time) as in years past.

jensan - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#308163) #
An increase of 16,000 fans at an average of $38.00 CDN less the entertainment tax and HST. Please confirm the net price would be around $28.50 average per ticket.
That totals around $457,000 per game that capacity of 45,700 from the present average attendance.
The YES network showed the highest watch game last night for the year, 450,000 average viewers, Sportsnet is over 50% higher on average, with increased viewing each day. Rogers has a great opportunity to carry this for the next 5 years if they strategize this properly with the quality of players. Averaging 3.1 to 3.4 million in attendance which will add $25 Million to $38 Million Net. Additinally merchandise and food and beverage sales at the Rogers Center will add another $15 Million Net of profit. This is enough to pay for a Price +.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#308164) #
Adding Pennington is a nice move in that he provides decent middle infield defence and Pennington/Goins probably provides a more effective overall combination at 2B than Goins alone. Pennington has a career 72 wRC+ against LHP, compared to 46 wRC+ for Goins and 45 wRC+ for Kawasaki. He has actually been better against LHP than against RHP over the last few years (SSS). He also provides depth in case of an injury to Tulo or Goins.

It sounds as if Travis hasn't been progressing as hoped. It's hard to say when he'll be back. Pennington should be a useful player to have around until Travis is ready.
John Northey - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#308165) #
Just remember on any revenue estimates that Rogers probably was planning on some of the growth that is happening now anyways.  I'm sure AA & Beeston would've pushed for extra cash on the assumption the team would be competitive if given it and then 3 million fans+ in the gate.
CeeBee - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#308166) #
Starlyn Suriel having a sureal kind of pitching line tonight.
6IP 2H 1R 1ER 0BB 11K.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#308167) #
Also, I'm not saying A-Rod is still juicing, but I find it weird that a 40-year-old hitter is having a 152 wRC+ season (his best since 2008, and better than his 144 wRC+ career average). His wRC+ this year is almost the same as Donaldson's (156).

I mean, why use PEDs in the first place if you can do this well without them? Assuming, of course, that he isn't using.
John Northey - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#308168) #
Remember A-Rod would be getting tested 1,001 times this year.  Much like Bautista was after his 50 HR year.  I think the big factors for A-Rod are 1) a year off to heal all injuries 2) laser like focus on proving everyone wrong (for an athlete that is a big incentive) 3)  DH only so no everyday in the field to batter himself up - could be a big factor at this point of a career.
ayjackson - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#308169) #
Starlyn is such a low K guy...wonder what's up tonight.
christaylor - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#308170) #
"I mean, why use PEDs in the first place if you can do this well without them? Assuming, of course, that he isn't using."

I don't think it is unreasonable to believe that PEDs (at least the ones that were being used during the era) would prolong the career and alter the aging curve. Clemens, Papi, Bonds... the list goes on. We'll never know for sure, but it seems to me not an unlikely hypothesis.
sweat - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#308171) #
Because people use PED's to get healthy, not add strength so they can hit the ball farther. Every nagging injury he has built up over his career basically had a season off to heal.
Magpie - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#308172) #
Rodriguez himself says not having to play the field has helped enormously.

I also think that, for the first time since he was maybe twelve years old, there are no expectations whatsoever. It's possible that this is the least pressure he's been under in his entire adult life. Rodriguez never seemed to have much fun playing baseball, which is almost tragic. Baseball should always be fun; it shouldn't be some grim piece of work where you live up to other people's (and your own) expectations.

It's especially sad in this particular case because Rodriguez has always been the baseball equivalent of what basketball people call a gym rat. There are lots of players, some of them stars, who don't particularly like the game, who aren't all that interested in it or its history. It's just that they're really good at it and it's a great way to make a living. But Rodriguez, who has made an enormous amount of money playing baseball, really isn't one of those guys. He's into baseball. I think this might be the first time in his career that he's been able to leave all that stuff somewhere else and just play ball. Free at last.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#308173) #
I mean, why use PEDs in the first place if you can do this well without them? Assuming, of course, that he isn't using.

I read a report/summary somewhere (I think even mentioned on here) that seemed to indicate that the kind of PEDs baseball players were doing (steroids/HGH?) have long-lasting benefits, far past the time of use. eg. use for 3 years, get 5-7 years of benefits (those numbers are made up, but just to illustrate the point). So, if he was using for 5-8 years before, he may well be seeing increased production from what he would have had for several more years to come..
Gerry - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#308174) #
Major advertisers usually book several months ahead. The increased viewers would only have a minor effect on revenues for the regular season. The big payoff for Rogers in advertising would come from the playoff games.
uglyone - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#308175) #
magpie that's bang on.

mentally and physically i don't think Arod has felt this comfortable in decades.

physically healed, rested, and in tip top shape like he hasn't been able to be in forever, and mentally not only is he under less pressure than he's ever been but he also has a whole lotta payback and crowserving to motivate him.

without a word of a lie i was expecting Arod to be good this year which is a big reason i thought the yanks were overrated.

a much bigger surprise to me, actually, is teixeira. i thought he waa toast.
92-93 - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#308176) #
Speaking of toast, RA Dickey has a 2.59era in 13 starts (87 innings) since June started. It's funny how quickly the assumption they wouldn't pick up his option has disappeared. May he continue to dominate the Evil Empire.
uglyone - Saturday, August 08 2015 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#308177) #
told you so.
uglyone - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 12:07 AM EDT (#308178) #
angels lose. jays take the top wild card spot.
JB21 - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#308180) #
That's definitely not true. They most definitely use PED's to get stronger and hit the ball farther. See Jose Canseco, Mark McGuire, Brett Boone, Barry Bonds, etc.
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 08:02 AM EDT (#308181) #
"...It's funny how quickly the assumption they wouldn't pick up his option has disappeared..."

I agree that his performance has improved dramatically since the beginning of June, but it's also true that Dickey has become indispensable for 2016 after the trading of Norris, Hoffman, Boyd and Castro. There are literally no prospects in the farm system who could challenge for a rotation spot in 2016.

I must admit that I was so despairing of Dickey's performance by the end of May (when his ERA was 5.77, let's not forget) that I was even floating the idea of putting him in the bullpen.  That was a stupid idea, in retrospect.  On the other hand, Dickey always has slow starts every season, and it costs games that the team could have won with another pitcher.  Maybe the Jays should put Osuna in the rotation for April and May and then allow Dickey to become a starter on June 1.  Of course I'm joking, but it would be nice to avoid those poor early months somehow.
ayjackson - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#308182) #
I thiink it would be naive to assume Arod wasn't juicing. I don't have much faith in pro sports drug testing programs. He's a great talent though.
Dave Till - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#308183) #
The Jays haven't been this close to first place this late in the season since 1993. Whee!

From the Interesting Coincidences department: the 1992 Jays had a very good team, but lacked a true ace starting pitcher. They then traded for a pitcher whose first name is David. So there you go.
hypobole - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#308184) #
Dickey certainly looked washed up by mid/late May. His improvement since hasn't been a matter of calendar turning, but specific issues discovered by Pete Walker and mutually corrected.

Jays and Dickey were lucky. Sometimes pitchers turn bad and their issues end up being uncorrectable (Dontrelle Willis and probably Rickey Romero). Sometimes it takes years (Scott Kazmir).

Edwin Jackson, Justin Verlander, Matt Garza may end up being "fixed" but anyone "predicting" that to happen is akin to calling heads or tails a prediction rather than a random guess.

In fact when an aged pitcher declines, odds of him being "fixed" become less and less likely.
cybercavalier - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#308186) #
Shi Davidi just tweeted that a group of Jays fans in LF were doing a roll call for the Jays players towards the end of the game, up 6-0, in Yankee stadium. Pretty freaking awesome.

Probably I am not that used to understanding this... What does a roll call mean in that situation and why doing so is awesome ?

bpoz - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#308187) #
Aces for the 92 team?

Morris was great for the Twins the year before.

Guzman was great for a short while, maybe 3 years. IMO he was the star SP for the 2 WS champs.

I was quite upset that J Key was not starting against the As in 1992. He was good all his career for us IMO. He then got to start regularly against the Braves.

My memory often does not work so well. Please correct any wrong facts.

cybercavalier - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#308188) #
Recently waived Valencia plays 3B and DH for the A's and thus Lawrie can play 2B. Talking about a Canadian team helping a Canadian....
Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#308192) #
1992 Jays had a very good team, but lacked a true ace starting pitcher. They then traded for a pitcher whose first name is David.

It wasn't an impressive looking rotation at that moment in time (27 August 1992)

Jack Morris     17-5,  4.22
Todd Stottlemyre 8-9,  4.79
Jimmy Key        8-11, 3.75
David Wells      7-8,  5.40

On the DL
Juan Guzman      12-3, 2.35
Dave Stieb        4-6, 5.04
Guzman was just about ready to come back, but... yeah, that crew needed some help.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#308193) #
Encarnacion rests today with Colabello DHing.  Good idea.  Navarro catches and bats fourth.  That's, um, different.

With the off-day tomorrow and the fine performances from Dickey and Price, the bullpen is rested and needs work.  Estrada's job today is to give them 5 good innings and let the bullpen take over. 

92-93 - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#308194) #
In the top of the first inning at Yankees home games, Bald Vinny leads the Bleacher Creatures in a roll call - they cheer each Yankee fielder's name until he acknowledges the crowd with a wave or tip of the cap; it's quite a bit of fun. I've sat there before with my Jays jersey on, and you best be ready for some drunken verbal abuse. They don't typically chant the pitcher's name (too distracting?), but for some reason David Wells was always an exception, perhaps because the majority of the Creatures identified with his beer belly.
Chuck - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#308196) #
A video of Yankees roll call.
Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#308197) #
After the off-day, the Jays have announced Hutchison-Buehrle-Dickey as the starters against Oakland (in other words, they're not skipping Hutchison.) Which sets up Price, Estrada, Hutchison for next weekend's set against the Yankees. Unless they bring Dickey back on short rest again for the last game.
Chuck - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#308198) #
Estrada's job today is to give them 5 good innings and let the bullpen take over.

Agreed. With his flyball tendencies, a short porch, a bunch of lefty power hitters and a well rested pen, Estrada will be under close watch and won't be asked to do too much.

jerjapan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#308199) #
Jays and Dickey were lucky. Sometimes pitchers turn bad and their issues end up being uncorrectable (Dontrelle Willis and probably Rickey Romero). Sometimes it takes years (Scott Kazmir).  Edwin Jackson, Justin Verlander, Matt Garza may end up being "fixed" but anyone "predicting" that to happen is akin to calling heads or tails a prediction rather than a random guess.

In fact when an aged pitcher declines, odds of him being "fixed" become less and less likely.

Of course, the converse of that could be equally true - Dickey and the Jays were unlucky to start the season.  The problem with applying Romero and Willis (who lost control) Kazmir and Verlander (who lost velocity) with Dickey is of course that we don't know much about how knucklers age and if conventional wisdom applies to them.  Dickey himself has said that he lost velocity this year, and now has it back - doesn't sound like 'luck', more like adjustments.  Lots of existing metrics don't work well with knuckleballers - FIP for example. 

I did a quick search on knuckleballers aging and found this interesting article from a Jays blog a few years back:

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2013/11/27/ra-dickey-and-the-knuckleballer-aging-curve/

the sample is small - only 27 'knuckleballer careers' to go by -but the takeaway "it seems like knuckleballers are at their best when they are between perhaps 34 and 40 years old." 

Just looking back at successful knucklers from my lifetime - charlie Hough produced 2 WAR at age 45 before he was toast, Tom Candiotti had 2 WAR at both 39 and 40, Joe Niekro has 1.6 WAR at 40, brother Phil got 4.6 WAR at age 45 (although he shoulda hung them up by the time he pitched for the Jays in 87), and Tim Wakefiled was below 1.9 WAR only once from age 34-42.  I didn't really bother looking at journeymen like Steve Sparks or Dennis Springer.  

It's entirely possible that Dickey - 41 in october - continues at this level - or better - for several more years. Given that he's one of only a few players left out there who's my age, i certainly hope he does!    

Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#308200) #
Navarro catches and bats fourth. That's, um, different.

The idea, I assume, is to break up the run of RH bats. Although at this point, questioning anything Gibbons does with the offense might seem like picking a very small nit.
bpoz - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#308201) #
I like the C Pennington trade. Because he was drafted, developed and played for the Oakland A's.

I believe in a karma type of way that some organizations are very good at acquiring players in a specific way.

So infielders from Oakland. Walt Weiss and Marco Scuttaro were from Oakland. Scuttaro blossomed as a Jay. So I am happy with Pennington if we can keep him for a while.

How do we get a good Catcher? Drafting them does not work. Only Greg Myers that I can recall. Boarders was drafted as a 3B.
Going back to 1977 we acquired catchers from other organizations E Whitt, A Ashby and R Cerone. Also maybe a guy named Phil Roof. Buck Martinez also came from another organization. None of them are incredible but they were pretty good IMO.
So we should do minor league trades for catchers.

We are great at drafting pitchers & OFs. Steib, Halladay etc... and Bell, Mosby, S Green & S Stewart. Also probably middle infielders but I am not sure. Fernandez, M Young & the guy we traded in the D Cone deal. My poor memory.

First basemen & DH types were also one of our strengths. They came here and had some of their best seasons. Mayberry, McGriff and home grown Olelud, Delgado. EE too. So Smoak could have a good future here.

Mike Green - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#308204) #
I wondered if Navarro had hit well in Yankee Stadium over his career.  The answer is no.  Tanaka has essentially no platoon split for his career. 

With Encarnacion out, you could lead off with Revere and hit Tulowitzki clean up.  It doesn't make too much of a difference, and I have to say that I am delighted that Gibbons has stuck with the unconventional decision to bat Tulowitzki lead-off.  Tulowitzki and Donaldson at the top of the order puts me in mind of Molitor and Yount at the top of the batting order for Harvey's Wallbangers in 1982.  That team also started slowly and came on.  They ended up fall a smidgen short of one run scored per game above league average.  John's Jackhammers?

hypobole - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#308205) #
jerjapan, what you're saying sounds correct, but you've missed the gist of my post. In late May Dickey had been worth negative value and for good reason. In a stretch of 5 starts, he struck out zero batters in 3 of them. Yes it was unlucky he was messed up.

But what if that had continued? Would his option have been picked up because other knuckleballers had remained effective into their mid-40's? Don't think so.

mathesond - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#308206) #
My memory often does not work so well. Please correct any wrong facts.

Ok: If it is wrong, it is not a fact :)
Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#308207) #
I am delighted that Gibbons has stuck with the unconventional decision to bat Tulowitzki lead-off.

My idea, I insist on reminding everyone!

I was trying to think of earlier examples of a slugging RH batter being used as a leadoff hitter.

Came up with two. In mid 1985, John McNamara tried his veteran RF Dwight Evans at the top of the batting order. Evans didn't hit for much of an average and had pretty good power - but he always had terrific on-base skills, and did spend a good chunk of his career batting second (when he wasn't hitting sixth. McNamara stuck with it through May 1986 when he finally had the bright idea of putting Wade Boggs at the top of the order. To which one can only say, what took you so long?

Even more interesting - on September 1, 1981 Gene Mauch of the Angels had his catcher, Brian Downing, lead off. Needless to say, Downing had never before hit leadoff in his life. Mauch tried it a few more times in that final month. In 1992, after a few games batting seventh, Downing (now playing LF) moved to the leadoff spot and stayed there for the next few years. Fred Lynn batted second, Rod Carew hit third, Reggie Jackson hit fourth.
Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#308208) #
That would be April 1982, of course, when Downing moved permanently into the leadoff spot.

Evans and Downing both played in 20 seasons; both had career OBP of .370.
Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#308209) #
Can anyone explain Josh Donaldson's hair?
soupman - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#308210) #
Can anyone explain Josh Donaldson's hair?

ricky vaughn + manbun?
JB21 - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#308211) #
2015
Chuck - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#308212) #
I was trying to think of earlier examples of a slugging RH batter being used as a leadoff hitter.

Gene Tenace was often used as a leadoff hitter in the 1970s... in Strat-O-Matic leagues. It would take another decade or two for on-base skills to be similarly appreciated by baseball professionals.

JB21 - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#308213) #
How do we get a good Catcher?

Sign Russell Martin?
Chuck - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#308214) #
OBP Watch: Hitters 6 to 9... 302, 289, 298, 226.

Yes, hitter 9 is over .300 for the season, but what he did elsewhere is of little value to the Jays.

JB21 - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#308215) #
Add Russ, Travis, and let Revere's SS increase and that will look a lot better. The 4th is one of the better defensive CF's in the MLB.
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#308216) #
The bottom of the Jays lineup is looking mediocre again, with Travis injured, Pillar slumping, Goins reverting to form and Revere not yet showing the on-base skills that he flashed in his NL career.   (To be fair, they've faced good pitchers in this series, but the problem has been more than just this series.)  How long can the Jays survive on home runs from the top 4 in the lineup?  I admit that it's worked for the past 10 days, but it won't necessarily work indefinitely.

Pennington might help a little -- his career OPS is a hundred points higher than that of Goins -- and I'd like to see him getting a start soon. But ultimately the Jays are going to need more production from the CF and LF slots in the lineup. Revere will presumably improve, but Pillar had an August slash line of .111/.200/.111 even before his latest two outs today.  While I've generally agreed with the Jays argument that Pompey needs full-time playing time and Buffalo is the place for it, I'm reaching the point of thinking that Pompey should indeed be promoted now, and maybe inserted in the lineup as a starter for a few consecutive games.  The bottom of the lineup needs to be productive again, if the Jays are going to reach their full potential this year.  This is a playoff team, so there's no more messing around.

China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#308217) #
I wrote my comment before seeing Chuck's more succinct version of it!

In reply to JB21:  we can't assume that Travis will solve the problem.  He is unlikely to be back until September.  And while the Jays can afford to have one spot in the lineup for pure defence, right now there are 3 spots that are going to good defenders who aren't currently pulling their weight offensively.  That's too many.

Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#308218) #
I have a feeling someone's going to get knocked down. Hope I'm wrong.
Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#308219) #
There you go! Bautista knocked down the pitcher.
uglyone - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#308220) #
come on, guys, looking at Revere's jays-only stats is a bit silly.
Chuck - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#308221) #
And a fan knocked down Gardner.
uglyone - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#308222) #
oh man cola's broken.
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#308223) #
Colabello is okay.  But I couldn't help thinking of Magpie's prediction.  Could that have been deliberate, in a close game, with 2 runners on and none out?  Maybe no, maybe yes.
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#308224) #
The Jays really need some insurance runs here. Gotta get at least one or two runs in.
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#308225) #
Pennington was a good idea.  But it didn't work.  Now it's down to our slumping CF.   Or the pitchers to hold the lead.
Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#308226) #
Hmm. Another pitcher comes over from the NL Central to prosper in the AL East.
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#308227) #
Aaargh.   And I'm watching the Yankees broadcast, so I had to hear their ecstatic reaction.  (These are the same guys whose call on the grand slam yesterday made me think it was a routine fly ball.) 
92-93 - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#308228) #
I've liked Goins' ABs lately, and wouldn't have removed his glove from this game in that spot. I sure hope Pennington is a good defender.
Chuck - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#308229) #
The way Buck and Pat have been speaking up Pennington, you'd swear he was the second best shortstop in baseball and not a scrub with a career 248/315/346 slash line.

He's a fine #4 middle infielder (promoted to #3 with Travis' injury), but let's never mind all this clubhouse leader, gamer, professional, blah blah blah crapola.

Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#308230) #
I sure hope Pennington is a good defender.

He was very good when he came up with Oakland. He's probably slipped some, but he should still be a plus defender.
Chuck - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#308231) #
I've liked Goins' ABs lately, and wouldn't have removed his glove from this game in that spot.

And if you're going to pinch-hit for him, why not Martin (presuming EE is not available)?

Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#308232) #
Could that have been deliberate

The fact that Foster's strike zone extends about six inches off the inside corner was probably as big a factor.
Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#308233) #
Coleman Hawkins!
mathesond - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#308234) #
Coleman Hawkins!

Why Magpie, you seem positively jazzed at how the bottom of the 7th inning was resolved!

Pretty suspenseful inning in general, with runners on base and relievers on both sides doing a great job at run prevention.
jerjapan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#308235) #
Gotta love that veteran reliever moxie...

Seriously though, AA's moves can't all keep working this well, can they?

Hypobole, my comments on dickey's struggles weren't based on results- dickey was definitely sucking- but on projections that he was done, which to my mind we don't have enough data to do. It could be luck, but I think his recent results support my point.
Chuck - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#308236) #
You've got to wonder if a Loup for Carrera switcheroo might not be in the works after this game. Loup has become Mr. Invisible.
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#308237) #
Looks like it will be the kids -- Sanchez and Osuna -- who will determine whether the Jays will hold the lead.
uglyone - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#308238) #
a weird part of me doesn't wqnt the jays to score here, just to really test whether sanchez/osuna have what it takes.
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#308239) #
Gibbons could have had Martin pinch-hitting for Navarro here too, so one assumes that he's determined to give Martin the day off.  To give him two days of rest in the middle of a key playoff drive.  He has looked a little tired lately, and he's been beaten up by those Dickey knuckleballs too.
Chuck - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#308240) #
Time on planet earth:

Hawkins: 42 years, 231 days
Sanchez + Osuna: 43 years, 224 days

The young 'uns have just under a year more collective life experience than Hawkins.

uglyone - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#308241) #
Sanchez vs Arod, the tying run.
uglyone - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#308242) #
Sanchez vs Teixeira, the tying run.
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#308243) #
The Yankee broadcast team just told us that the Yankees haven't been shut out in consecutive games since 1999.  The Jays are getting ready to party like it's 1999.
Chuck - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#308244) #
At the start of the year, there were two trusted RH relievers, both 20 years old. Now there are 6 righties, all doing pretty convincing Ward/Henke imitations.
jerjapan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#308245) #
That's a wild number chuck. And strangely, I'm not worried about osuna in the biggest moment of his career thus far
scottt - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#308246) #
The advantage of a guy who walks a lot over a guy who hits a lot is that the opposing pitcher wastes more pitches and gets more frustrated with the walk than with the hit.
uglyone - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#308247) #
osuna hasn't been missing as many bats lately. hopefully he gets some here.
uglyone - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#308248) #
CeeBee - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#308249) #
men with brooms.
Lylemcr - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#308250) #
Where would this season be without Osuna?

Woo Hooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I love sweeping the Yankees
scottt - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#308251) #
And when was the last sweep by the Jays in the Bronx? A couple of minutes ago.
Jonny German - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#308252) #
That was a real pretty run the Yankees scored this weekend.
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#308253) #
Three games on the road against the second-highest-scoring team in the league, and the Jays hold them to a combined total of .... one run in 28 innings.  Would never have happened in the first half of this season.  This is what you get with an excellent bullpen and an excellent rotation, which the Jays finally have.  These are the kinds of games that the Jays need to win in a pennant drive:  2-1 and 2-0, rather than hoping to come out on the right end of a 9-7 or 11-8 score.
Lylemcr - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#308254) #
Not to be a negative Nelly, but Smoak and Pillar have been struggling pretty bad in the past month.

When do we bring up people from Buffalo to change that?
greenfrog - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#308255) #
Brilliant work. Best Jays team ever, I think. Did it today without EE, Martin, Travis, Stroman, Saunders. Scary to think that this team is likely to get even better over the next month or two.
robertdudek - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#308256) #
11 and 0 with Tulo in the starting lineup.
mathesond - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#308257) #
Pretty solid job by Estrada today. And hey - he has more wins than Tanaka this season!

He's setting himself up for a nice contract this winter. I could see someone ponying up 4/50 for his services. Well, maybe not 4 years as apparently he is already 32. 3/40 perhaps?
scottt - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#308258) #
Smoak  is fine. Pillar is fine. Defense matters a lot when you play those close games.

Smoak has 4 RBI in this series. The Yankees have 1.

uglyone - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#308259) #
"Not to be a negative Nelly,"

too late.
robertdudek - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#308260) #
Smoak and Pillar will continue to start. No one in Buffalo can hold a candle to them as overall ballplayers.
Lylemcr - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#308261) #
It is too late.

I am worried that the Jays might lose a game :)
Jimbag - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#308262) #
The Yankees needed help from a fan to plate one this weekend.
scottt - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#308263) #
I googled defensive pillar and he came out second behind Operation Pillar of Defense.
eudaimon - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#308264) #
I'm not worried about Pillar at all. His D is still terrific, and he's still not striking out (only 10% of his ABs in August despite his .111 BA - it was about the same rate in his hot July). He'll be fine. Even if he's not making good contact, he's likely to get some hits due to BABIP luck, unlike someone who strikes out a lot more.
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#308265) #
"...Smoak has 4 RBI in this series. The Yankees have 1...."

Smoak has a flair for the dramatic:  2 home runs on July 1, and a grand slam against the Yankees yesterday.  But let's be real.  His OBP is .276 since June 1.  He's having brutal at-bats.  He's really struggling.  The defence helps to compensate for that, and it's nice to have a good scooper at 1B, but I think it's legitimate to ask questions about his lineup role.  I wouldn't give him any DH playing time at this point, anyway.
mathesond - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#308266) #
I wouldn't give him any DH playing time at this point, anyway.

On a team with Encarnacion, Colabello and Navarro, I suspect Smoak is waaaaaaaaaay down the list of potential DH candidates :)
scottt - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#308267) #
Somebody needs to work with Pillar on hitting to the opposite field, but now is maybe not the time.
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#308268) #
".... I suspect Smoak is waaaaaaaaaay down the list of potential DH candidates...."

Well, there are people who feel that Smoak is a better hitter than Colabello or Navarro.  And he probably is a better hitter than Navarro at this point.  But of course you're right, Encarnacion and Colabello will get virtually all the DH time for the rest of the season.  I just noticed that Smoak has only been at DH in two games this season anyway, so please disregard my DH comment....
Chuck - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#308269) #
Who's a masochist? Yes, correct. I am a masochist. I'm listening to Wilner for about the third or fourth time all year. Yeesh. I rarely have a problem with Wilner himself, but his callers... egad!

One guy is convinced that the team's success is due to a change in chemistry. Why go all Sylvia Browne? Why is the rationalist perspective not people's default position? The team is playing better because the team is better (and, frankly, they are on a bit of a flukey streak).

Another guy is requesting that AA to stop making trades ASAP. The departed Kawasaki was required to keep the guys loose! And when Wilner suggested that he wouldn't oppose AA trading for a 4th outfielder, the bewildered fan asked: "another outfielder????".

China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#308272) #
One last comment on today's game:  the obnoxious Yankee fans, finally getting their karma.  One fan threw back the ball after Bautista's home run -- and managed to plunk Gardner square in the back.  Another fan nearly injured Teixeira on a foul ball by greedily grabbing for the loose ball in the stands, slamming into Teixeira's outstretched arm after he had missed the ball.  Teixeira was furious at him.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#308273) #
RE: Potenial Estrada Contract

I would say Jason Hammel represents the precedent. He's looking at around 2 years and 20 million with an option for a 3rd.

Ultimately at best I think at the most you get 2/3 of Buerle, Estrada and Price back. Stroman fills one void and one of Sanchez/Osuna replaces Hutch. Again I suppose the main thing is to enjoy this ride while it happens. Hutch may have to stick if you get only 1 of those 3 guys back.
scottt - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#308275) #
You don't talk contract with any pitchers until the year is over. No time for distraction now. Whatever anybody does in the last 2 months will count as much as the first four.

So, anybody heard the same 3 pitchers will be pushed back to face the Yankees in TO? The Yankees have only 1 bad starter and the Jays will miss him.

Mike Green - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#308276) #
It was Christmas in August for the pitchers today.  The strike zone extended three to six inches on either side of the plate and a couple of inches below the knees.  Actually, it was generous the entire series. I wouldn't draw too much from the struggles of Goins, Pillar and Revere.  They weren't the only ones who struggled.

Estrada is giving up fewer homers than usual this year.  Some of it is undoubtedly luck, but there have been fewer hard hit balls and fewer balls pulled than in past years.  His curveball has been more effective than ever this year, and that probably helps.  He has both speed changes and movement working for him. 

robertdudek - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#308277) #
UhNo. Dickey is scheduled for Thursday, and Price is pushed back one day so he can start Friday
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#308284) #
Interesting article tonight by Scott MacArthur of TSN, apparently based on conversations with Jays management, in which he suggests that Hutchison might be pulled from the rotation if he pitches poorly against Oakland on Tuesday.  If he struggles on Tuesday, the Jays could decide that Dickey will pitch one day earlier, Wednesday, on regular rest, which would allow him to take Hutchison's spot in the rotation next Sunday against the Yankees (on three days rest), since he has pitched so well against the Yankees this year.  That would mean Hutchison basically losing his rotation spot for the rest of the month.  Another option that's being considered, according to MacArthur, is giving a start to Liam Hendriks, with a strict pitch limit.  In any event, the Jays clearly aren't committing themselves to Hutchison beyond the Tuesday start.  If he pitches well, he stays in the rotation.  if he doesn't, he might not stay.

The MacArthur article:
http://www.tsn.ca/off-days-give-jays-rotation-flexibility-1.343187

Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#308285) #
Well, I was hoping they could get to 3 back in the division by the end of August. Guess that horse has left the stable.
James W - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#308286) #
Price is not pushed back at all. They're staying on rotation and giving everyone the off day's worth of extra rest.
bpoz - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#308287) #
CF, I do enjoy your comments on the 2016 potential roster.

You, I and the rest of us are enjoying this year as it unfolds. Way back it was expected that the Jays would be good, now it is a pleasant surprise.

I expect that we will have a great off season in the Batters Box.

So CHEERS and lets drink to another farm rebuild.
eldarion - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#308290) #
Speaking of farm rebuilds, a thought struck me the other day that I was hoping someone could confirm as correct. I understand that we will not get a compensatory pick for losing Price (if not re-signed) but, assuming we offer qualifying offers to Estrada, Buerhle and Navarro, will we not receive compensatory picks for them if they choose to sign elsewhere? Also, coupled with our original first rounder plus the additional second rounder for the loss of Singer, wouldn't that give us up to 6 picks in the first two rounds?
bpoz - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#308291) #
I believe that is correct eldarion.
eldarion - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#308292) #
Huh...well then. I'd say having (potentially) 4 first rounders would go a long way to re-couping our lost farm depth.
pooks137 - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#308293) #

I understand that we will not get a compensatory pick for losing Price (if not re-signed) but, assuming we offer qualifying offers to Estrada, Buerhle and Navarro, will we not receive compensatory picks for them if they choose to sign elsewhere? Also, coupled with our original first rounder plus the additional second rounder for the loss of Singer, wouldn't that give us up to 6 picks in the first two rounds?

The qualifying offer to obtain free agent compensation in the event of your player signing elsewhere was $15.3 million last year and will be higher for 2016.

There is no way Navarro is getting a 15-16 mil qualifying offer. His entire 2 year contract is only worth 8 million. He is going to walk as a FA with no compensation

Estrada is a more interesting case. He is only making 3.9 million this year in his last year of arbitration. He doesn't have much of a track record as a starter (88 career starts, 511 innings, ERA 4.10, xFIP 3.95. So somewere around a league average starter, but still fairly untested. Unless you think someone is crazy enough to give him a Rick Porcello-style contract, you don't over him a qualifying offer

Buehrle probably gets a qualifying offer if he doesn't retire. He has to sign with another team for the Jays to actually get the pick

cruzin - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#308294) #
"qualifying offers to Estrada, Buerhle and Navarro,"

Yes in theory you're correct that there could be 3 additional picks, which would give us 6 picks in the first 2 round. But the only person that I see giving a qualifying offer to and not accepting would be Buerhle. Estrada and Navarro would both accept a qualifying offer if offered, and thereby negating any possible draft pick. I can't see AA offering 16.5+ million for either Estrada or Navarro.
China fan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#308295) #
The Jays are very unlikely to offer QOs to Estrada, Navarro or Buehrle.  They don't need Navarro at all, and a QO to Estrada would probably be seen as an over-pay.  (It would be about $16-million this year.)  Of those three, the only QO that's slightly possible is Buehrle, but most analysts are saying that the Jays won't do it, as a courtesy to a veteran who might retire, because they don't want to tie his hands if he wants to sign elsewhere. (I know a lot of Bauxites don't agree with that rationale, but this is apparently the Jays thinking.)

"....Ultimately at best I think at the most you get 2/3 of Buerle, Estrada and Price back...."

I'd be ecstatic if the Jays get one of those three to return next season.


JB21 - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#308296) #
As stated above, if they offer Buehrle the QO he will either accept or retire, so there's probably a good change that the Jays get 0 additional draft picks.

Angels just walked off the O's. I found myself cheering for the Angels, even though that means the Jays don't gain ground. Obviously we have our eye on the AL East but it's better that the O's, Rays, Rangers, and Twins all continue to lose so we are guaranteed a WC game. That's my opinion anyway.

3.5 ahead of Baltimore, 4.5 ahead of TB & Texas, and 5 ahead of Minny.
JB21 - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#308297) #
change = chance. There's probably more to edit as well. I love that we get to scoreboard watch right now, it's been a WHILE.
eudaimon - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#308298) #
Wow, Minnesota's really collapsed. They're getting destroyed on a regular basis it seems
Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#308299) #
Angels just walked off the O's

And Oakland did likewise against Houston on a Danny Valencia single. Danny V, who had homered earlier, is now 7-16 with 2 HRs in his 4 games as an A. Brett Lawrie will need to get used to playing 2b at this rate.
Magpie - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#308300) #
Minnesota's really collapsed.

They've had just one winning month, but it came early and it was really good, so it kept them afloat for quite some time afterwards.

Kind of like the 2014 Blue Jays.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#308301) #
CF, I didn't say that Smoak is a better hitter than Navarro or Colabello, or that he should be DHing.  I said that Smoak is a better choice to be the first baseman against RHP.  Smoak has a 102 OPS+ overall over the last 3 years, and is a better hitter against RHP than against LHP.  FWIW, Navarro has a 107 OPS+ overall over the last 3 years and has been a better hitter against LHP. 
hypobole - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#308302) #
My vote for Manager of the Year goes to "the guy who replaced Ryne Sandberg". I believe that's his actual name. How the heck can the Phillies have the best record in baseball since the AS break at 16-5??

BTW, we've pulled even with the Astros and now trail only the Yankees and Royals.
uglyone - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#308303) #
smoak's been much better vLHP on the road in his career (116wr +). that park in Seattle killed him.

as for minnesota.....they are more proof of the importance of run differential in predicting actual team quality and future performamce.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#308304) #
Danny V, who had homered earlier, is now 7-16 with 2 HRs in his 4 games as an A.

Today's game against the Yankees must have quelled some fears that the Blue Jays won't see any left-handed pitching. In fact, the bottom of the order, without Valencia to pinch hit, seems quite vulnerable to lefties. The team would have considerably better off had it simply kept Valencia, called up Kawasaki and sent down one of its lightly used relievers from the 8 man bullpen. Plus they now have to play an Oakland team which they've obviously strengthened by DFA'ing Valencia.
scottt - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#308305) #
What I heard was that Price was pushed back one day, so he asked to be used in the pen to stay fresh.
scottt - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#308306) #
Loup has thrown only 1 pitch since July 26 and he still has options.
jerjapan - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#308307) #
Today's game against the Yankees must have quelled some fears that the Blue Jays won't see any left-handed pitching. In fact, the bottom of the order, without Valencia to pinch hit, seems quite vulnerable to lefties. The team would have considerably better off had it simply kept Valencia, called up Kawasaki and sent down one of its lightly used relievers from the 8 man bullpen. Plus they now have to play an Oakland team which they've obviously strengthened by DFA'ing Valencia.

this of course presupposes that we knew Travis would be injured. 

I for one am glad that we are playing teams that are significantly strengthened by the addition of a utility IF that we just DFAed. 

i try to think of the 8 man bullpen as an insurance policy.  It's a drain on resources, right up until you need it. 

Personally, I prefer a 7 man pen.  But I do think AA has reasons for what he's doing when it comes to risk management. 



92-93 - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#308308) #
"Most analysts are saying the Jays won't qualify Buehrle."

I have yet to hear that. Has anything been written, CF?
cruzin - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#308309) #
"Personally, I prefer a 7 man pen. But I do think AA has reasons for what he's doing when it comes to risk management."

I don't think this has anything directly to do with AA. I just believe Gibbons likes have the safety net of a 8 man pen over an extra bench player. AA is simply letting Gibbons have the team he wants.

Though I will add that I read somewhere that Gibbons talked about bringing another OF in the next few weeks, essentially going back to a 7 man pen. I presume that's under the assumption that the SP keeps doing what it's done as of late.

vw_fan17 - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#308310) #
For some reason, all this talk of "first time since 1999, not since 2001, etc..." (and I know that's not exactly the right era) has me constantly expecting to hear things like "Yes, Fergie Olvr, how sweet it is!"... :-)

Shoeless Joe - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#308311) #
"I'd be ecstatic if the Jays get one of those three to return next season."

I think if the Jays want estrada back they get estrada back. The track record here works in our favour. I just think that signing Price is unlikely and Burerle may or may not retire. All facts considered worst case one of them is back.
scottt - Sunday, August 09 2015 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#308313) #
I keep hearing of adding another starter to move Hutch to the pen. In 3 weeks the rosters go to 40 and both Carrera and Pompey should come up since they already wasted an option this year.
Magpie - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#308314) #
this of course presupposes that we knew Travis would be injured.

Oh, I think they knew. They'd already put Travis on the DL before Valencia was DFA'd.
cruzin - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#308315) #
"In 3 weeks the rosters go to 40 and both Carrera and Pompey should come up since they already wasted an option this year."

Well I hope they call up their 4th OF (prefer Pompey) before the rosters expand in Sept, so that they're eligible for the post season. Can't see needing 13 pitchers in a playoff series where a bigger bench is more valuable. Since you'll be either going with 3 or 4 SP for the playoffs, definitely don't see the need for a 9+ man pen.
Magpie - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 12:56 AM EDT (#308316) #


This would be the press box in Comerica, where a couple of old ballplayers are working the game. Their paths have crossed before.
TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#308317) #
The team is playing better because the team is better (and, frankly, they are on a bit of a flukey streak).

And were on a flukey streak (or whatever you want to call the first 100 games) as well.
TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 07:10 AM EDT (#308318) #
Another fan nearly injured Teixeira on a foul ball by greedily grabbing for the loose ball in the stands, slamming into Teixeira's outstretched arm after he had missed the ball. Teixeira was furious at him.

Teixeira, it seemed to me, still had his arm milling about in the stands because he was trying to retrieve the ball and pretend he'd caught it. Though I should probably watch it again. On first viewing, though, that's what seemed to be happening, and I thought getting angry with the fan reflected poorly on Teixeira.
TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 07:18 AM EDT (#308319) #
The team would have considerably better off had it simply kept Valencia, called up Kawasaki and sent down one of its lightly used relievers from the 8 man bullpen.

Still find that such a stupid move. Even if he didn't fit, they could have put him on waivers -- the usual August waivers, whatever they're called -- and tried working out a trade (where they'd actually have leverage, whether he cleared waivers or not). It would have required doing without Bo Schultz for a few days, or however long it took. No Bo Schultz -- big deal. Even if you couldn't trade him, all it would have taken was to get through August anyway.
Chuck - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#308320) #
And were on a flukey streak (or whatever you want to call the first 100 games) as well.

Oh, I agree. That Gods of chance seem to be tilting the game board in the opposite direction at the moment.

TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 07:23 AM EDT (#308321) #
a utility IF that we just DFAed

And I don't know that that's a fair way to describe him, either. He was a valuable platoon player. He's hitting .309/.347/.545 (145 wRC+) on the year, and he's been worth 1.2 fWAR, or $9.7M in value. And they gave him away for nothing.
Chuck - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#308322) #
Their paths have crossed before.

I was going to suggest that the homerun was, what, 15-20 years ago? Sorry, Charlie. 27 years ago! How do I get off this ride?

Chuck - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#308323) #
And they gave him away for nothing.

Consider him an IOU for the Donaldson trade.

ISLAND BOY - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 07:29 AM EDT (#308324) #
For all the Pat Tabler/Buck Martinez fans on here, this is something I read on pinstripealley ( Yankee's fan blog ): " Anyway, it appears that although Buck and Pat ( Jays commentators ) are atrocious and ridiculous, they are actually so much so that in a way it is a good thing. They are insane and if one can accept that, it is easier to embrace. Like the game, you never know ( or always know ) what they are going to say. They are like the Beavis and Butthead of baseball, especially when they start their raspy horse laughing."

-- I thought it was funny that they laughed like horses, then realized the writer meant " hoarse laughing ". He could have been right either way although, for some reason, I don't mind Buck and Pat.
Jevant - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#308325) #
Interesting idea - hits from the left side, capable in RF (last I checked).  Is he better than Pompey is right now, is the question, I suppose.
China fan - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#308328) #
"....Teixeira, it seemed to me, still had his arm milling about in the stands because he was trying to retrieve the ball and pretend he'd caught it..."

I saw several replays of it.  He had clearly missed the foul, and the ball was bouncing along the floor of the stands.  Teixeira's arm was still fully extended as he lay backwards in the seats -- he wasn't moving, his arm was fully stretched out -- and a fan forcibly pushed past his arm to try to retrieve the ball.  The fan could easily have injured Teixeira's arm.  The Yankee broadcasters said his arm could have been hyperextended as a result.  It's amazing how fans sometimes ignore everything else in their rush for a foul ball -- even the risk of injury to a player.
China fan - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#308329) #
In answer to 92-93's question about the Buehrle qualifying offer, here's one of my sources:  http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/honda-blue-jays-chats-weekly-on-fridays/

It's by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, who has very good connections in the Jays organization.  He writes:  "Buehrle hasn't said whether he intends to retire or keep pitching, but I wouldn't be surprised either way. As much as he's liked Toronto I'm not expecting him back here, but a mid-western city like Chicago or St. Louis might appeal to him.  As for qualifying offers, I don't see the Blue Jays qualifying Buehrle, almost as a courtesy."

I know a lot of Bauxites would disagree with this. They would argue, understandably, that Buehrle is a highly paid professional and should be treated the same as any other highly paid professional.  If the Jays would benefit by giving him a QO, they should do so.

The counter-argument from the Jays would probably be:  if we give a QO to Buehrle, he would almost certainly be forced to retire, because no other MLB team is likely to give up $16-million plus a high draft pick for a pitcher who turns 37 next year and might be in decline.  So whether we give him a QO or not, we get no draft pick for him.  If we let him leave without a QO, he'll go to a NL team and we won't suffer any consequences.  So by refraining from a QO, we do a favor to a veteran who helped us a lot, who came to Toronto without his family (because of the pit-bull law), who showed leadership to our young pitchers and helped coach them, and never complained about being traded unexpectedly from a city where he had been happy.  And if we treat veterans with courtesy and respect, allowing them to have one last year in MLB without blocking them, we'll have a better reputation as an organization and more veterans might be willing to sign here.

Again, I know that a lot of people would disagree with this and would prefer a more hard-nosed approach to Buehrle, but that would appear to be the Jays thinking at this point.

On the other hand, if the Jays win the pennant and do well in the playoffs, and if Buehrle is a key part of that, maybe he'll have so much fun that he agrees to sign a one-year extension with the Jays.  Nothing can be ruled out at this point.

Magpie - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#308330) #
I agree with all of that, and I would add that Buehrle's agents represent other players, too. Good will is good will.
hypobole - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#308331) #
"Still find that such a stupid move. Even if he didn't fit, they could have put him on waivers -- the usual August waivers, whatever they're called -- and tried working out a trade (where they'd actually have leverage, whether he cleared waivers or not). It would have required doing without Bo Schultz for a few days, or however long it took. No Bo Schultz -- big deal. Even if you couldn't trade him, all it would have taken was to get through August anyway."

Does Schultz have options? Because if not, it would have been Schultz being lost on waivers rather than Valencia. I'm guessing the Jays like Schultz more than you do.
Paul D - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#308332) #
Buerhle wouldn't be forced to retire - he could take an extended break to relax, then join a team after next year's draft for the stretch run.
Jonny German - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#308333) #
"If we let him leave without a QO, he'll go to a NL team and we won't suffer any consequences. "

Hows that now? Why would he necessarily sign with an NL team?

Also, Im drawing up plans for the Jays to be in the World Series in 2016. And to play some interleague games.

At any rate, Im confident the Jays wont make their decision with as little info as we have. They have access to talk to Buehrle and his agent!
Jonny German - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#308334) #
"Does Schultz have options?"

Yes. Next question?
China fan - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#308335) #
".... I'm guessing the Jays like Schultz more than you do...."

Schultz does have options.  But the key factor in the 8-man bullpen, in my opinion, is the uncertainty about Hutchison.  In his last game, Hutchison pitched so poorly in the first inning that the Jays got Schultz warming up in the bullpen by the 2nd inning.  Whenever Hutchison starts, the Jays have to assume that there's a risk of him being yanked early -- maybe as early as the 3rd or 4th inning.  In addition, if he is pulled from the rotation, as the Jays are reportedly considering (per MacArthur's article), they could need a "bullpen start" by the entire bullpen to replace him, beginning with Hendriks for a few innings and then a bunch of other relievers.  So because of Hutchison's woes, the Jays are keeping the 8-man pen.  (And to be fair, there haven't been a lot of situations where they would have needed the bench player that the 8th reliever is replacing. Kawasaki for example was getting virtually no playing time -- only 3 plate appearances after his recall. A fourth outfielder wouldn't be getting much playing time either, unless the Jays are willing to accept a defensive downgrade in the outfield, which currently they seem very reluctant to do.)
China fan - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#308336) #
"....Why would he necessarily sign with an NL team?..."

That would obviously have to be part of the verbal agreement.  We promise not to give you a QO if you promise not to sign with an AL team.  But yes, I agree with you that the Jays have conversations with Buehrle and his agent and they will figure out a solution that works for everyone.  The Jays can't force Buehrle to play for them.  And they can't force another team to give them a draft pick in exchange for Buehrle, when he could just as easily retire.
TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#308339) #
his arm was fully stretched out

Well, yeah, because he was still trying to pick the ball off the ground. He was one of the ones scrambling for a dead ball in the stands and someone banged into his arm. Probably happens all the time -- to fans. Because usually the player isn't one of the ones wrestling for the ball. Just watched it again in the highlights on MLB.TV, where they also show his post-game comments and where he comes across (to me) even more unlikeable.

Anyway, with respect to Buehrle, another team doesn't have to match the QO at $16M or whatever. If he wants out of Toronto to go back to Chicago or St. Louis, maybe he takes $10M, or $20/M over 2 years -- something like that. He can try to work out a price at however much he values those other cities over Toronto. If he lowers his price enough, at some point some team will want him, regardless of the draft pick. And if he's the second free agent they sign, the cost would actually be -- for some teams -- a third round pick, isn't that right? That said, if (a) he tells the Jays he'll retire if they offer him arbitration; and (b) the Jays believe him, then sure -- not much point offering him a QO in that case.
John Northey - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#308340) #
When it comes to Buehrle the question is what is he playing for at this point?  He has a WS ring with the White Sox from 2005.  Has 211 wins but won't get to 300, 250 is possible.  Other milestones in reach are 2000K's (not a big thing but it is there), a first win in the WS (he only started one game, no decision).  Yeah, not a lot on the horizon for him if he keeps going.  He has made just shy of $140 million in his career so money shouldn't be an issue anymore.

All I can see is a desire to keep playing (see Rickey Henderson), and wanting to make the Hall of Fame - would need at least 3 more seasons to get to 250 wins which I figure he needs to have a shot due to a 'meh' peak, never winning 20 games, 5th in Cy voting once otherwise never got a Cy Young vote.  Right now he would be a guy who might get a couple 'good guy' votes for the HOF.  Get 250 wins and he might get more.  His 14 soon to be 15 year 200 inning streak is nice but that normally is used as a push on a marginal guy.  His numbers aren't enough otherwise to get him in at this point.  He needs career length to get there.  Push that 200 inning streak to 20 years and get well over 250 wins then we'll talk.

So if he thinks he has 3+ years left in him I could see him signing here or elsewhere.  That HOF is the only real big baseball goal left for him (and maybe hoping for that 20 win season).  His best shot at both is here with this crazy offense and improving defense.

robertdudek - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#308342) #
Buehrle, like Tommy John or Frank Tanana, could easily pitch well into his 40s. He is very athletic for a pitcher and gets better results for the stuff he has than just about every other pitcher in baseball. He could easily reach 250 wins, which will be the de facto HoF benchmark due to the virtual disappearance of the 300 game winner. He could also reach 700 games started - an exclusive club.
scottt - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#308343) #
37 is not old and Buehrle is not in decline. Can Ben Nicholson-Smith tell us the name of the president and GM of the Blue Jays who will not offer a QO to Buehrle? Or is somebody else taking those decisions?
rtcaino - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#308344) #
"Teixeira, it seemed to me, still had his arm milling about in the stands because he was trying to retrieve the ball and pretend he'd caught it. Though I should probably watch it again. On first viewing, though, that's what seemed to be happening, and I thought getting angry with the fan reflected poorly on Teixeira."

I was watching with my Dad, and we both had the same thoughts after seeing the play live. On the replays, it was clear that he was not attempting to pretend he caught it.

Also, as someone with about a dozen left shoulder dislocations, the replay was uncomfortable to watch. I would have been quite upset if someone charged my outstretched arm in that position.
scottt - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#308345) #
He has made just shy of $140 million in his career so money shouldn't be an issue anymore.

Do you have a list of players who retired early while they still could have easily increased their career takeout by 20% or more? That's enough money to buy a mansion for each of his pitbulls.  Do you realize that most players have a hard time adjusting to post baseball life?
China fan - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#308346) #
"....Can Ben Nicholson-Smith tell us the name of the president and GM of the Blue Jays who will not offer a QO to Buehrle?...."

I'm not sure why people are getting so emotionally worked up about this.  Buehrle has made it clear that he's contemplating retirement.  He's never been someone who is ambitiously hungering for the HOF or statistical records or a career in his 40s.  Hardball negotiating tactics won't work with him.  The Jays will have a conversation with him at the end of the season, and at some point he'll decide whether he's retiring or not.  If he decides to keep playing, he'll decide if he wants to play for Toronto or if he wants to go elsewhere.  If he is willing to stay with the Jays, it will be easy to work out a deal.  If he wants to go elsewhere, it's very difficult to prevent it, unless the Jays give him a QO, which would tie his hands and make it difficult for any other team to sign him. Who gives up a high draft pick for a veteran who might play for just one year?  Please name the MLB team that surrenders a high draft pick for a veteran who is contemplating retirement soon and who -- almost certainly -- wouldn't guarantee more than another year of baseball.  In that scenario, with a QO blocking the other teams, he'll probably be forced to retire, but the Jays are unlikely to want such ill-will with a respected veteran and his agent.  This is not a computer game, it's human relationships.
robertdudek - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#308348) #
I heard all the talk about Buehrle retiring four years ago. I believe that there will be many teams that will offer him a three year deal with a team option fourth year. And even after that contract finishes, Buerhle will very likely still be a valuable pitcher. There is absolutely nothing that I see that suggests he is near the end of the line. Of course, he could be one of those major leaguers who chooses retirement when they have many good years left in the tank. That is a short list.
TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#308349) #
"....Can Ben Nicholson-Smith tell us the name of the president and GM of the Blue Jays who will not offer a QO to Buehrle?...."

I'm not sure why people are getting so emotionally worked up about this.


I don't think anyone's getting too worked up about it. In any case, it's a good point Scottt's making -- we have no idea who'll even be making the decision. And from the way the article is worded ("I don't see..."), it sounds like this is Nicholson-Smith's own speculation anyway.
TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#308350) #
On the replays, it was clear that he was not attempting to pretend he caught it.

If you can watch it again, watch his right arm. It seems pretty clear to me he was reaching for the ball with his right arm. His right arm actually reached in after the ball had landed as he tried to scoop it up quickly.
TangledUpInBlue - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#308351) #
To return to an earlier topic, MLBTR is reporting that James Shields has cleared waivers, which suggests to me what I was arguing previously -- that his contract has negative value. There might be another explanation (professional courtesy and all that) but Anthopoulos, at any rate, wasn't prepared to take a chance that he could get him for free, which... I don't know. Might have been a tough call.
China fan - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#308353) #
".... Shooting down their opinions on what may happen while simultaneously stating your own opinions as if they are solid, widely known facts...."

I thought this was standard procedure for just about anyone who expresses any opinion on baseball, including on this site!

In any event, I tried to make it clear that we don't know what will happen with Buehrle.  Anything is possible, including a multi-year deal.  I simply disagreed with people who seem to think that the Jays will definitely offer a QO to Buehrle.  And I offered a source for that, plus some logical thinking on the issue.  Of course you're free to disagree. 
pubster - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#308354) #
Buehrle has said that after he retires he wants to be a farmer.
jerjapan - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#308356) #
this of course presupposes that we knew Travis would be injured.

"Oh, I think they knew. They'd already put Travis on the DL before Valencia was DFA'd."

Whoops!  My bad Magpie, thanks for the catch. 
scottt - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#308357) #
I'd like to see Revere given a green light. His success rate at stealing bases was 83% with the Phillies. That's high enough considering that it removes the chances of double plays. Also, if Revere is stealing, it will make it harder on the pitcher who now can focus on getting the batter out.  Revere getting caught doesn't end a rally, it's just one less run if one of the top 3 guys homers.
Ryan Day - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#308359) #
Even if Buehrle intends to do something like sign a one-year deal with the Cardinals and then retire, there's no guarantee it will happen. The negotiations might hit a snag, and some other team might come along with a bigger, longer deal. Or he could sign with the Cards, only to see them collapse next year and trade him to the Red Sox mid-season. And then, hey, he kinda likes Boston and signs an extension.

As much as Buerhle is a modest, good-old-boy kinda player, he signed a straight-up mercenary contract with Miami the last time he was a free agent, an organization not exactly known for player permanence.

It's one thing to sit on your giant pile of money and think you don't need any more, but entirely another to stick to that position when someone pulls up in a truck with even more money loaded in the back.

I think you offer Buehrle a QO simply because there are so many unpredictable variables. As I recall, the Jays played hardball with Darren Oliver, and he was even closer to a definitive retirement than Buehrle is. A gentleman's agreement only goes so far when you're getting paid $20 million a year to play baseball.
jerjapan - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#308360) #
The QO isn't necessarily the kiss of death for a free agent like Buehrle.  Somehow Michael Cuddyer got signed with a QO attached to his contract.

BP has the Jays atop the Hitlist today, 2ith a 41.6% chance of winning the division.  I don't think I've seen a turnaround this fast before in my baseball watching life!

Lylemcr - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#308361) #
Buerhle totally gets a QO. Let's see
- An ERA around 3.5-4.0
- Always healthy
- Getting better with Age.
- The Blue Jays need pitching next year.

Estrada and Navarro do to. Navarro does not sign because he wants to start somewhere. (And there is a demand for catching in the league).

Estrada won't take the QO, because he wants to cash in on the great season he is having. If he wants to come back 1 year for 8 million, I can't see AA refusing that. I think Estrada wants a 4-5 year contract. Once again, there is a shortage of pitching in the league and someone like Baltimore might want to take him FROM the Jays.

That being said. I woke up this morning and thought to myself. Since the trading deadline, the Jays just beat up Minnesota, KC and NYY. You can call it a fluke, but they are playing good ball. The pitching was incredible this weekend. 1 run over 3 games. OMG!!!!
BlueJayWay - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#308363) #
Travis won't be back before September, per AA.
92-93 - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#308365) #
Thanks for the link CF. For me, you made quite the leap from Ben Nicholson-Smith's speculation to "most analysts are saying the Jays will not qualify Buehrle", but you did say it's only one of your sources so perhaps there's more chatter of this elsewhere that I haven't heard. And yes, I think it's a terrible idea. Free agents don't show the Jays any good will (they will only come here when we are the best offer), so I don't see why the team should pass on a first round draft pick to make sure Mark Buehrle gets to play in the city and for the price of his choosing.

It's one thing to keep playing John Buck instead of JP Arencibia in August because you signed him as FA and he deserves a chance to earn his next contract; it's a whole other issue to let a key component of your team, someone you are willing to pay 16m to come back, walk away without any sort of compensation in hope that it will help you sign veterans in the future.

Either way, this is all irrelevant today, just like any conversation about David Price's future. So much of the discussion is dependent on what happens over the next 2 months that all of this talk is tad premature.
hypobole - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#308366) #
3 Tidbits
-the last 4 games of this upcoming homestand are already sold out.
-the Yankee streak of not being shut out back-to-back that was broken by Price/Estrada et al, was the longest in MLB history.
-Since Tulo's debut, the Jays 1-4 batters have hit 17 HR's. Only 3 other teams have hit 17 in that span.
John Northey - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#308367) #
If the Jays are insane enough to offer Navarro a QO then he'd take it as he wouldn't get $15 mil on a 3 year deal let along a one year.
Estrada & Buehrle are near locks for a QO right now.  Unless they collapse between now and the end of the year I expect QO's to be made.  Someoen will offer Estrada a 3 year deal around $30 mil to $45 mil and he'll take it.
Buehrle the Jays will try hard to resign.  Estrada on a 1 year deal only most likely.

vw_fan17 - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#308368) #
Estrada and Navarro do to. Navarro does not sign because he wants to start somewhere. (And there is a demand for catching in the league).

Hi Lylemcr - I think you missed the last set of responses to your post. This isn't a "offer arbitration" QO like in the past. QO is a FIXED rate, set at the top 10% of contract values or something. It's between $13.5-16M this year/next year.

Meaning: it's debatable whether or not Estrada gets a QO - I could possibly see it happening. On the other hand, there's no chance in hell Navarro gets a QO. Catching may be in demand, but NO ONE will pay him $15M+ - that's Russel Martin money. He'd take that offer in a heartbeat and ride the pine like there's no tomorrow... And totally handcuff the Jays in the process.
uglyone - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#308369) #
honestly it's impossible to talk contracts now.

a deep playoff run with this amazing roster literally changes all the math, for both the players and the jays.
cruzin - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#308370) #
"Estrada & Buehrle are near locks for a QO right now. "

I disagree, Estrada doesn't have the track record as a successful SP to warrant a QO as being a near lock. Now he if keeps pitching shutouts from here onwards until end of season, then it would make for an interesting discussion. Every team needs to make a call whether just a flash in the pan or something more significant. Given the potential established FA SPs ready to hit the market this off-season. Estrada isn't on anyone's top wish list. He's a swing man making only 3.9million this year and there's a reason for that. He's upped his value to this point no doubt, but it's not at a 16million/year level yet.
ayjackson - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#308371) #
"I don't think I've seen a turnaround this fast before in my baseball watching life!"

1987? That was fast. Real fast.
uglyone - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#308373) #
though just on the Buehrle thing - that retirement talk iirc came a couple years back when it looked like he was a diminishing player turning into a bit of a journeyman with a bad contract.

but the way he's pitched the last 2yrs has likely pushed any talk of retirement far out of his mind. imom
John Northey - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#308374) #
Just thinking about the guys lost from last year...woudl there be space for any of them this year?
Juan Francisco: last years version of Colabello - released by Tampa & Boston without reaching the majors, just 5 games in Japan this year 3 for 18 with 11 K's 0 walks
Melky Cabrera: now up to 282/323/399 105 OPS+ for the White Sox who probably regret that 3 year $42 mil contract.
Colby Rasmus: Doing OK in Houston - 238/310/452 for a 108 OPS+ 2.2 bWAR so far. Still no idea where he'd fit here, maybe in a LF platoon.
Adam Lind: now at 284/363/479 for Milwaukee 129 OPS+ 2.7 WAR.  Nice but where the heck would he play here?  Maybe 1B.
Brett Lawrie: 268/306/405 96 OPS+ for Oakland - would be at 2B here now but benched once Travis is healthy
Anthony Gose: 256/307/358 84 OPS+ for Detroit - has come back down to earth after a hot start.  Would be no more than a 4th outfielder here.
Erik Kratz:0 for 4 for KC so far.  Has been in 3 teams minor leagues this year 250/344/478 in AAA overall.  Would be in AAA here too.
Nolan Reimold: 238/322/375 93 OPS+ for Baltimore.  Might be helping more by staying there. :)
Dan Johnson: 12 OPS+ for St Louis in 12 games.    Ick.
Moises Sierra: 712 OPS in AAA for KC.
Darin Mastroianni: 672 OPS in AAA for 2 clubs.
John Mayberry: 50 OPS+ for the Mets

I don't see any hitters we'd want here right now ... Maybe Lind at 1B, Lawrie to cover until Travis is back.  The rest AA would just leave on the waiver wire I suspect.

J.A. Happ: 79 ERA+ over 113 innings.  A bit of decline from his past.
Casey Janssen: 3.24 ERA, 2.94 FIP for Washington - would be nice to have back but not at 3.5 mil with a $7 mil option or $1.5 buyout for next year.
Dustin McGowan: 6.94 ERA 7.77 FIP for Philly
Brandon Morrow: 2.73 ERA 3.53 FIP for San Diego in 5 starts/33 IP.  Nice. But out for the year now with a right shoulder injury.
Sergio Santos: 4.96 ERA 4.57 FIP for LAD/NYY in 16 1/3 IP undergoing Tommy John surgery as a Dodger
Esmil Rogers: 62 ERA+ for the Yankees.  Thanks Esmil.
Neil Wagner: hasn't thrown a pitch this year.

That cover the 10+ IP guys.  Janssen the only one who'd be nice to have but not at that price.  Morrow was having a nice comeback then his shoulder went.

I think AA did a good job on who to clear out last winter eh?
JB21 - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#308375) #
Guys, just enjoy 2015.

To help, I present you with this...

https://twitter.com/MStrooo6/status/630788723882524672
scottt - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#308376) #
I'd venture that most teams don't get many homers from the 5-9 hitters anyway. Who many do the Jays have since Tulo joined?
jerjapan - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#308377) #
Holy crap that's good news JB21.  Im  likely wishcasting, but if stroman makes it back as a STARTER?

ayjackson, 1987 is definitely the other candidate for greatest turnaround in Jays history - that was the point young Jerjapan officially became a Jays fan.  Off the top of my head, we were 12-24 when we fired Jimmy and hired Cito - and then off we went.  Likely Magpie could wade in here with some recollections ... 

it's the same feeling for me right now, minus a lot of adolescent angst ....



JohnL - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#308379) #

Off the top of my head, we were 12-24 when we fired Jimmy

That would be the 1989 turnaround. The 1987 turnaround went the other way

Mike Green - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#308380) #
Blue Jay birthdays for August 10: Anthony Gose, Dan Johnson, Brandon Lyon and Sal Fasano.  Happy birthday, one and all. 

I wonder if a 4th outfielder will be coming.  The A's are sending 3 right-handed pitchers at the Blue Jays, as will the Yankees.  It might be a good time to give Pillar a game off in the middle.  So far he has played in 112 of the team's 113 games and a day off might help him.

Jevant - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#308381) #
In terms of "are they good enough to make the 25 man", there's no doubt that there would be room for Lawrie, Lind and at least one of Colby, Gose or Melky.  Lind would replace Colabello (or Smoak, I guess), Lawrie would replace Pennington and the OF would replace a RP.  That said, Estrada has been needed more than Lind was, and I'm certainly not regretting the Gose/Melky/Colby/Lawrie decisions.  But there was some good talent jettisoned, fortunately, it was replaced by (on the whole) better talent.
Mike Green - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#308382) #

Off the top of my head, we were 12-24 when we fired Jimmy

That would be the 1989 turnaround. The 1987 turnaround went the other way

True.  And he wasn't called Jimy One-M for nothing...


Magpie - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#308383) #
the 1989 turnaround

Was not fast. The team was in a very, very big hole when Williams was fired on May 14, and it took a long time to climb out of it and see daylight again. They played well in June (17-10) and July (15-12), but it was still mid-August before they crawled back above .500 for good.
scottt - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#308384) #
He will have the winter to think about retirement. The Jays will have to decide about a QO as soon as the season is over.

I don't think anybody has ever accepted one yet. Melky wasn't worth losing a pick over. Neither was Michael Cuddyer who signed for 8.5 M this year and 12.5 next year. Ouch. 3 times 18M for Victor Marinez? Meh. And he resigned with the same team. Somebody didn't get the point of the QO. Same with Liriano, although they basically gave him 3 QO in one contract and he was worth it for the first year. That 5 year deal for Hanley Ramirez? That makes me think it might be OK to let Bautista go. If somebody offers him 5 years of crazy money, I'd take the under, just because of the injury factor. And I respect Bats as much as any other joker. Santana isn't worth is 5 year contract and everybody knows Boston will buy back that 6th year on Sandoval's contract.

uglyone - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#308386) #
i don't think stroman coming back as an SP is wishcasting at all, btw.

6-7 months is not a crazy fast recovery, and wince half the battle is putting in the work to ensure all the surrounding muscles are ready to go....and we know that stro works as hard as anyone...i'm expecting him ready to start for us mid september.
Magpie - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#308387) #
He's basically beginning spring training tomorrow. Turn back the clock to February 22 and work forward. They are not going to rush him.
uglyone - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#308389) #
I guess we could argue about which point of ST he's at right now given his current fitness and flat ground throwing....but even if you give him the full 6 weeks training camp...starting next week even....that puts him on track to be ready to go to start October.
Jevant - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#308390) #
Though that would mean he could end up starting in the last weeks of September or (dare I say it) October.
Mike Green - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#308392) #
He's basically beginning spring training tomorrow. Turn back the clock to February 22 and work forward. They are not going to rush him.

I agree.  It is however a lot of fun to have a little bit of the hopefulness of spring in August.  Never mind that the Jays just left New York with a sweep. 
pubster - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#308393) #
Didn't Tampa Bay or Miami (or maybe both) make up a lot of ground late to win the wild card a couple years ago?

Also Red Sox coming back from down 3-0 to beat the Yankees was a big turnaround.
scottt - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#308394) #
At best he's throwing 1 inning out of the bullpen in meaningless games. The whole point is to throw this year, so he doesn't have to make a return next year.
Magpie - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#308395) #
It sure looks like he'll be ready to pitch in games by October 1. Not so sure I'd want him making his first start of the season then. You know, in hypothetical games that might be played. At that particular moment. In the space-time continuum. But let's see what happens.
Magpie - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#308396) #
Didn't Tampa Bay or Miami (or maybe both) make up a lot of ground late to win the wild card a couple years ago?

Ask Troy Tulowitzki about his rookie season. After getting blown out 10-2 by the Marlins, the 2007 Rockies had a 76-72 record. They were in fourth place, 6.5 games behind Arizona with the Dodgers and Padres in between. But the Rockies won 13 of their final 14 games to force a one game playoff with San Diego for the NL wild card. The game went to extras and San Diego scored twice in the top of the 13th. But Colorado rallied for three in the bottom half to advance. They then swept both the Phillies in the division series and Arizona in the NLCS. By which point, they'd won 21 of 22 games.

And then they had to play the Red Sox in the World Series, which didn't go nearly as well...
John Northey - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#308397) #
With Stroman the big question will be can he be an effective reliever in September, then can he make a start or two when the big 4 need a day off, or if a doubleheader occurs.  I'd bet on him getting a start the day after the Jays clinch the division :)
jerjapan - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#308398) #
Good call Magpie, that Rockies team was on a truly epic run.  Such a fun team to follow, not in the least due to those Coors field superstars - Brad Hawpe, Willie Taveres, Ryan Spilborghs and Garret Atkins all had impressive hitting lines.  Who?  Exactly. 

That was Tulo's breakout season.  Our own Jeff Francis was the staff ace - what could have been if not for Coors? Ubaldo Jiminez and Franklin Morales were dynamic rookies, and Steve Finley was around for one last kick at the can.   He whiffed.

And of course, LaTroy Hawkins was on the team. 



92-93 - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#308399) #
On September 3rd, 2011, the Tampa Bay Rays were NINE games back of the Boston Red Sox for the wild card. They won it. Do not ever count out those pests.
Alex Obal - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#308400) #
On August 20 1995, the Seattle Mariners were TWELVE AND A HALF games behind the Angels for first in the West. Within two weeks they'd cut it to 5.5. They tied for the division and Seattle won the play-in game handily.

These things happen.

Seattle actually overtook the Angels by three games in the final week and blew that lead...
Mike Green - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#308401) #
And, of course, Bucky Freaking Dent.  The Blue Jays would have to overtake the Yankees this season and next season to avenge that sorrowful twist of fate (on behalf of the Red Sox who need some help).  That's what friends are for.
Richard S.S. - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#308402) #
Only one problem with injured players trying to contribute in September and possibly earn Postseason consideration. The Minors shut down, except for a few playoff games, at the start of September. That basically eliminates the best way to get better/back. That is where a second problem arises. Players on the D.L., prior to September 1st, are still available to form your Postseason Roster. Anyone can be called up to join the Team starting each subsequent round. How does anyone get into game shape or stay in game shape after September 1st?

Sign three Teams from your Minors to play each other until the Blue Jays are eliminated, whether for Postseason qualifying or during Postseason play. Pay them very well, so they don't have to work in the offseason/play Winter Ball. You'll need to have anyone coming back from the D.L. playing or slated to play at sometime. You'll need to have room for September call-ups (if in Postseason) and possible other useful additions playing.

You don't need full 25-man Rosters for each team as only a total of 21 to 24 pitchers might be needed (as opposed to 36 to 39 normally). Day One: Team A plays Team B. Day Two: A plays C. Day Three: B plays C. Days Four, Five and Six: repeat. Day Seven is an Off Day. Repeat this 7-day period as long as needed. If winning early (sweep) in Postseason series, The Jays could play a game or more if needed to stay in shape - too many off days are detrimental playing well.
Mylegacy - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#308403) #
After reading this very interesting thread... a few thoughts...

Buehrle - After the 2012 season the QO was 12.5 million (ave of top 125 MLB salaries). After 2014 it was 15.3 million...after 2015? I'm not sure. Unfortunately, we'd have to offer Buehrle and Estrada (if we did) a QO well before the heart of the free agent season...to me this is important. For instance, Price would cost us 30 million next year (most likely in that ball park) - if we got him for that, clearly there are no more 15+ millions there to give some other pitcher. However, IF we didn't sign Price (or knew realistically that we couldn't) we might think to offer Buehrle and perhaps even Estrada a QO. Two good pitchers for the price of a god. Remember, next year - for sure - we've Stroman (sprinkler heads and covering first base drills not with standing), then Hutch (IF we even want him - I know I would be much happier if he was too low on the list of starters to be in contention), then Dickey. SO - three spots filled by two pitchers and an arm. We have Sanchez and Osuna - BOTH very good starting pitching prospects NEITHER of which have pitched anywhere near enough innings this year to be trusted for a full season starting next year. (Perhaps we could piggyback them - two pitchers each pitching roughly one half of a pitchers workload over a full year). Fortunately, this off-season looks good for starting pitcher free agents. We may need five or six (exaggerating - a bit).

Tex - To me, before he got to the stands the NY fans ALL got well back giving him a shot at the ball. The ball hit CLEANLY in his glove and bounced out. It fell to the ground and THEN the "fan" tried to reach over Tex and get the ball. Tex threatened him with a look and the guy quickly retreated begging forgiveness. I think Tex was just pissed off he dropped the ball and took it out on the fan.

Can we be caught? You pet your sweet life we can! I shudder a bit because it appears to me we're peaking too soon. He who is peaking in late September wins the holy grail. Hopefully, we can keep this up for a real long time - or at least get this mojo back in middle to late September.

I have to admit - I'm loving how this season is going, how well AA is firing every bullet he can get his hands on (and NOT firing a few he just won't part with). 1993 was a LONG, long, l o n g, time ago...

Richard S.S. - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#308404) #
Assuming A.A. picks up the options on those he wants to keep, the only Free Agent of significance the Blue Jays have is Mark Buehrle. He will be in demand, despite thinking he might retire. He's the only person to merit the $16.0 MM Qualifying Offer. If he retires, no problem; but if he accepts, that's fine too, although unlikely. If he declines, then having a QO will not hurt him. Mid-Rotation Starters of his caliber are rare and worth a lot.

Marco Estrada might accept the QO because he can still get a decent contract next Offseason. He'd take the windfall $16.0 MM very quickly. Dioner Navarro should not receive a QO because he'd accept. Taking the QO is the equivalent of signing a four year contract for $4.0 MM per, being bought out after one year, then signing a normal two-year $5.0 MM contract - one year later.
Richard S.S. - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#308405) #
I don't think we will have the Budgetary Restrictions next year that's been so much of an issue in the past. A full house generates $1.2 MM - $1.3 MM that day. Full House Postseason tickets could generate $12.0 MM - $25.0 MM per day. Not counting the Wild Card game, the next round, a best-of-5 series has 1-3 home games available. The AL/NL Championship and then World Series are a best-of-7 with 2-4 home games possible.

The fewest Home games that can be played is one, hosting the Wild Card Game and losing. The most Home games that can be played, by playing the maximum number of games, is twelve, by hosting both best-of-7s. That can be an immense number in ticket sales. Does wonders for payroll parameters. Just four Home games should increase payroll up to just shy of Luxury Tax Limits for two years. Makes signing anyone they want easier. Makes carrying a bad contract for a few years unimportant.
ayjackson - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#308406) #
If Stroman needs five weeks of "spring training" until he's stretched out to 90-100 pitches, he could be piggy-backing Hutch's starts by the beginning of September, and taking them over completely (if results warrant) by the third week of September (five weeks).

It may not happen, but that would be the goal (aside from Hutch remembering how to pitch).
JB21 - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#308407) #
Only problem is the minor league season ends early Sept, the 7th I believe.
rafael - Monday, August 10 2015 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#308408) #
I agree with John that Stroman gets a start.
He wasn't doing all that work just to show his face.
I figure he's invented some trick to get his arm partially stretched out already before he gets on a proper mound.
So it will probably be a good start and then it will seem obvious to let him try it again in a meaningful game.
Start or bust.
Jevant - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#308409) #
The point is to win the World Series.  If they think Stroman can help with that without overly risking his long term health, I'm pretty sure they'll do what they can do do that.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#308410) #
The idiotic shutting down of Strasburg comes to mind.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#308411) #
There always are budget restrictions of some kind.  Even the Yankees & Dodgers have them - yeah at crazy levels but they still are there.

I'd be shocked if the Jays were higher than $150 next year, $125 more likely as the Canadian dollar is in freefall lately and Rogers likes to maximize profits. Martin goes up by $8 mil, thus eating the Rickey Romero savings.  Navarro's $5 mil saved will mainly go to Donaldson. Those are the big killers.  There might be enough for one more high end pitcher - Buehrle or Price. 

hypobole - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#308412) #
Toronto is an oddball among MLB franchises. Huge markets (attendance and TV) of sports fans, but not baseball fans. There is far more variance in attendance and viewership between the team being mediocre/bad or the team being very good/great than any other team.

If the current level of play keeps up, Rogers will make pocketsful of money, even if it's the Canadian kind. If $125 million projects as a fringe playoff contender, but $150 million projects as a championship contender, Rogers will easily recoup the extra $25 million.

Along the same line of thinking as the Warren Buffet quote AA has come around to understanding, it's better for the Jays to have a wonderful team with a fair payroll than a fair team with a wonderful payroll.

scottt - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#308413) #
Nobody's ever accepted a QO and I don't think this will change this year. Pitchers will decline the QO and negotiate with the team using the QO as a starting base.  Salary room is not really a factor. That's what trades are for.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#308414) #
Toronto isn't a sports town... it is a Maple Leafs or a winning teams town.  When the Toronto Rock were winning year in / year out they packed their arena.  When the Raptors were exciting and made the 2nd round all the talk was about them.  In 1985-1993 the Jays dominated both on the field and in the park/TV.  If your club sucks it better be the Maple Leafs or it will be a ghost town.  Strong incentive to win for all but the Leafs.

The good part of that is the Jays know this and are seeing it now on the good side.  That should help AA get more cash this winter as he can show how much extra revenue the Jays are bringing in with a winner now.

smcs - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#308415) #
If Stroman is coming back this year, he is coming back as a reliever. His arm may be able to get to where it needs to be to throw 90-100 pitches, but the concern should be if his surgically repaired knee can handle that workload. I'm pretty sure he hurt his landing leg, so will he be able to mentally trust that his leg won't give out, and not unintentionally alter his mechanics? The biggest knock on him has always been his size, and he has needed to use every bit of his frame in order to be as effective as he has been. If one part of that isn't at 100%, it will throw everything else off, and he may try to overcompensate and overthrow with the rest of his body.



ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#308416) #
If Stroman is coming back this year, he is coming back as a reliever.

That's what Gibbons said as well. And you make a good a good point about his knee.
JB21 - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#308417) #
Disagree. The Raptors attendance is very strong year after year despite not being a very good team and missing the playoffs most years (until recently).
scottt - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#308418) #
Trust me, nobody wants to know what happens when the Maple Leafs win.
scottt - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#308419) #
There is far more variance in attendance and viewership between the team being mediocre/bad or the team being very good/great than any other team.

And yet mediocre/bad is the norm and good/great the exception.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#308420) #
6 months is a typical recovery from ACL surgery.

not sure why people think stroman should take longer to recover than average.
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#308421) #
Nobody's ever accepted a QO

'Ever' means in three years. 'Nobody' includes players like Stephen Drew who according to players regretted his decision. I think Estrada would accept a QO, but I don't think it will go that far as the club would rather sign him for a lower aav than pay a 2016 salary of $16 million. As I've said before, I don't think the Jays will interfere with Buehrle's end-career by making him a QO.
Beyonder - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#308422) #
A player who forces a team to make a qualifying offer has already decided to test the market, so it should not be surprising that no one has ever accepted one. If a 16-million dollar one-year deal were acceptable to the player, they would surely have arrived at that deal before it was made the subject of a qualifying offer.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#308423) #
The biggest reason no QO's have been accepted is that teams are pretty smart about about offering them.

Cuddyer was maybe the biggest gamble, even though it ended well, except for the Mets.
AWeb - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#308424) #
If no players are accepting QO's, then teams are not being smart about offering them, they are being hyper risk-averse. That's OK for the teams, but it could be better.
pubster - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#308425) #
When the UFC came to Toronto they had their largest attendance ever.

Therefore Toronto is a sports town.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#308426) #
If no players are accepting QO's, then teams are not being smart about offering them

Two years ago, Drew and Morales should have accepted their QOs but received lousy advice from their agents.

Spifficus - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#308427) #
Wasn't Cuddyer signed before the deadline, for whatever weird reason the Mets had, making a QO a risk-free move?

Still, I'm not sure if the lack of accepting offers shows that the teams are hyper risk-adverse, or that the players that have had this risk so far (Drew, Morales) have over-estimated their positions, negating the risk. I'd probably drop the 'hyper', at least. The sample's still pretty small, allowing for too many isolated bits of wackyness on the margins.
Spifficus - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#308428) #

*sigh*. Risk-averse, not risk-adverse.

scottt - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#308429) #
Making a QO doesn't interfere with anybody's career. Nobody forced Buehrle to sign with Florida. He could have gone to the team he wants to retire with for less money.  Isn't a draft pick just something with a monetary value? Is it OK to lose a draft pick and overpay for a good player, but not OK to lose a draft pick and underpay for a decent one?
scottt - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#308430) #
I think it shows that players--and their agents--prefer to negotiate deals rather than have one imposed on them.

Are team really risk-averse? Do we have a list of players that were not offered a QO, yet negotiated salaries above the QO value?

hypobole - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#308431) #
"Wasn't Cuddyer signed before the deadline, for whatever weird reason the Mets had, making a QO a risk-free move?"

Not risk free for the Rockies, unless they would have been OK having Cuddyer back for $15.3 million. What the Mets did with the quick signing was removing the need for Cuddyer to make a decision on the QO.
Hodgie - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#308432) #
Some pre-game reading courtesy of Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs fame. Trying so hard not to get too far ahead of myself with this team but ......
Jevant - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#308433) #
AA just said that if Stroman will be back as a starter, if he is healthy enough to join Jays in September.



ayjackson - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#308434) #
That was pretty clear to some of us.

(hey, cut me some slack...i'm never right)
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#308435) #
Danny Valencia batting cleanup tonight for the A's, whose lineup includes other ex-Jays Lawrie and Graveman.
electric carrot - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#308436) #
Some pre-game reading courtesy of Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs fame

That's a good read, thanks. I was wondering when it was going to get mentioned how well the Jays are hitting with men on this year. I knew it was happening but it's interesting to see it mapped out statistically. 

It's going to be really great once Devon is in there every day. It's a Big Blue Machine that produces RUNS!
JB21 - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#308437) #
Speaking of batting cleanup, no EE again today. This worries me.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#308438) #
Danny V may do some damage tonight. He has a couple of scores to settle - one with the Jays' org for waiving him and the other with Mike G for regularly bringing up his career line vs RH pitching. :)
JB21 - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#308439) #
I hope/assume Danny V will get a nice ovation.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#308440) #
Dickey and Buehrle have been flipped in the rotation; Dickey goes tomorrow, Buehrle on Thursday. Pretty obvious this is to set up Dickey to come back for the finale against the Yankees. Unless Hutchison is really good tonight.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#308441) #
ah nice that's a clever solution.

i was wondering if they werr gonna try buehrle on short rest but he's not quite as rubbery as dickey and the yanks kill him so i didn't love the idea.

this makes much more sense and i'm annooyed i didn't think of it.

good one, gibby.
smcs - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#308442) #
6 months is a typical recovery from ACL surgery.

not sure why people think stroman should take longer to recover than average.

6 months means you can resume normal activity, which he has. For you and me, that means we can, essentially, walk without a limp, go for a run, etc. For an athlete that has to put more than 100% of their body weight on the knee and leg repeatedly, and in quick succession, it would take longer than that to build up the necessary muscle strength in the entire leg. Though the ACL would be back to normal, the rest of his leg may not be where it needs to be in order for his knee, his leg and his body to endure the stresses that occur when pitching.

Furthermore, that is just the physical recovery. I am not a sports psychologist, but I know enough about injuries through my own experiences and through watching sports my entire life to know that athletes can behave differently if they have been injured, even if it is entirely subconscious activity. If I were the Jays, I would be very cautious, and closely monitor his mechanics and his velocity. Stroman may think he is back to normal, and throwing with the exact same mechanics as he used to, but he may, especially when he gets tired, start to shy away from putting to much stress on his knee for fear of re-injury, and alter his mechanics, which could potentially hurt something else.

As much as Stroman wants to help the 2015 team (which he can from the bullpen), the Jays should be making sure that he is ready for 2016 and beyond.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#308443) #
http://www.emoryhealthcare.org/acl-program/surgical-recovery/acl-rehab-expectations.html

"Phase IV - four to six months after surgery

Emphasis:

Possible return to sport, depending on type of sporting activity and type of graft
Full pain free range of motion should be present
Sufficient strength and proprioception should be present
Typically, patient is advanced to initiate advanced lifting exercises
Phase is typically customized to the patient's activity level and competition level in sport.


Phase V - return to sport, usually at six months

Emphasis:

Patient must meet all the criteria for return to sports
No soft tissue or range of motion complaints
Physician must clear the patient to resume full activities
The goal is safe return to sports
Education of patient about possible limitations
Maintenance of strength, endurance, and proprioception
Functional bracing may be recommended by some physicians for the first one to two years after surgery for psychological confidence."
JB21 - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#308445) #
Oh ya, and I hope that other third baseman gets a polite Canadian thanks from the fans as well.
jerjapan - Tuesday, August 11 2015 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#308467) #
Estrada and the QO need to not be in the same sentence together. Okay, check that, If he rattles off near no-hitters till the end of the year, give him one.

Whats the name of that logical error when you overvalue your own assets? To Valencia?

Okay, sorry, I'm getting off my high horse. Go jays! Hutch!
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