Back in November, the Blue Jays signed themselves a big ticket free agent - catcher Russell Martin.
It wasn't his bat they were investing in, as Gregor Chisholm wrote at the time:
The strength of Toronto's future clearly lies within its rotation. Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris and Drew Hutchison, along with promising prospects such as Jeff Hoffman are expected to be the strength of this organization for many years to come, and in order to maximize that talent, an elite receiver such as Martin was required. Martin is generally regarded as one of the best game-callers and pitch-framers in baseball. That's one reason there was no shortage of interest in his services...
These sentiments were echoed in many places, Da Box among them. So... how's all this working out anyway?
Not quite what we expected. How did this happen?
Let's see if we can figure it out. Obviously, it's got nothing to do with David Price, who has been by far the best Toronto starter this season. But Price has only pitched 50.1 innings for the Jays, and Martin's caught every one of them. Let's look at the individual starters:
Martin's obviously done an excellent job working with the knuckleballer. If Martin was having a great deal difficulty catching the pitch, you might expect Dickey's walks to increase. Umpires have a natural tendency to call a ball on pitches that the catcher doesn't catch cleanly, or has to lunge after. And Dickey's walks have indeed jumped quite a bit with Martin behind the plate. But I think it's pretty clear that this is just colllateral damage. Dickey has simply had a much better knuckleball working on those days that Martin's been behind the plate. I don't know why, but the strikeouts are up, and the hits and home runs are down. He's been much harder to catch, perhaps, but he's been even harder to hit.
What about Drew?
Oh, Drew. It just doesn't matter.
Which brings us to the two guys who are at the root of The Mystery.
Navarro returned on June 3, resumed his role as Buehrle's personal catcher, and Buehrle immediately tossed a six-hit shutout and followed that up with two more strong starts. But it was at this point that Gibbons tried Navarro behind the plate with Estrada (which worked well) and Hutchison (made no difference.) Martin caught Buehrle's next seven starts, and the old man was outstanding (4-1, 2.03). Navarro got three more Buehrle starts at the beginning of August, with Martin showing signs of wear, but with Thole joining the team to take on the Dickey duties, and Navarro and Estrada having evidently an effective tandem, Martin has caught Buehrle's last four starts. Which coincides perfectly with when his season went into the crapper (1-2, 6.98). Essentially, Buehrle has had three extended stints with Martin catching - one was outstanding, the others were... not so good, as Captain Kramer once said.
Buehrle is, by far, the easiest pitcher on the staff to catch, in terms of receiving the ball. He doesn't throw particularly hard and he generally hits his catcher's glove. Buehrle's demands on his catcher, such as they are, are entirely mental. Many if not most pitchers prefer to call their own game, or at least have some say in the matter, and the catcher needs to try to think along with them. But Buehrle famously throws whatever his catcher calls for, without hesitation. Catchers do expect to carry this burden for every pitcher - Buehrle is one of the few pitchers who actually lets them. This would really only be a problem with an extremely inexperienced catcher. It can take a catcher with no previous experience with Buehrle a half dozen games or so to figure out how to work with the old fella - we saw this with Arencibia in 2013 and Martin this year.
But they do figure it out. Martin went through a learning curve with Buehrle early in the season, they worked brilliantly together in mid-season, and Martin's been on the spot as the old man started running out of gas these last few weeks. I expect he'll bounce back - he always does (knocks furiously on wood) - I'm just not sure that Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium III are the places to expect it to happen.
Anyway - I started out looking at Martin's numbers, wondering what was up with that - and I've basically convinced myself.... not much, really!
It wasn't his bat they were investing in, as Gregor Chisholm wrote at the time:
The strength of Toronto's future clearly lies within its rotation. Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris and Drew Hutchison, along with promising prospects such as Jeff Hoffman are expected to be the strength of this organization for many years to come, and in order to maximize that talent, an elite receiver such as Martin was required. Martin is generally regarded as one of the best game-callers and pitch-framers in baseball. That's one reason there was no shortage of interest in his services...
These sentiments were echoed in many places, Da Box among them. So... how's all this working out anyway?
G IP W L ERA R ER PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BAVG OBP SLG OPS K/9 Bb/9 HR/9
Navarro 32 255.3 17 10 3.10 94 88 1042 956 229 42 5 29 11 9 68 195 2.87 .240 .294 .385 .679 6.87 2.40 1.02
Martin 101 871.7 55 44 3.76 410 364 3634 3302 825 166 18 101 39 29 250 684 2.73 .250 .307 .403 .710 7.06 2.58 1.04
Thole 12 91.0 6 5 5.14 55 52 384 350 94 20 4 11 4 0 23 65 2.83 .269 .317 .443 .760 6.43 2.27 1.09
Not quite what we expected. How did this happen?
Let's see if we can figure it out. Obviously, it's got nothing to do with David Price, who has been by far the best Toronto starter this season. But Price has only pitched 50.1 innings for the Jays, and Martin's caught every one of them. Let's look at the individual starters:
G IP W L ERA R ER PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BAVG OBP SLG OPS K/9 Bb/9 HR/9
Dickey/Martin 18 115.3 5 5 3.51 47 45 482 428 102 20 4 12 5 4 43 77 1.79 .238 .316 .388 .704 6.01 3.36 0.94
Dickey/Thole 10 67.3 5 5 5.08 38 38 279 255 70 11 3 10 1 0 14 35 2.50 .275 .314 .459 .773 4.68 1.87 1.34
Martin's obviously done an excellent job working with the knuckleballer. If Martin was having a great deal difficulty catching the pitch, you might expect Dickey's walks to increase. Umpires have a natural tendency to call a ball on pitches that the catcher doesn't catch cleanly, or has to lunge after. And Dickey's walks have indeed jumped quite a bit with Martin behind the plate. But I think it's pretty clear that this is just colllateral damage. Dickey has simply had a much better knuckleball working on those days that Martin's been behind the plate. I don't know why, but the strikeouts are up, and the hits and home runs are down. He's been much harder to catch, perhaps, but he's been even harder to hit.
What about Drew?
G IP W L ERA R ER PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BAVG OBP SLG OPS K/9 Bb/9 HR/9
Hutchison/Martin 21 116.7 11 2 5.09 65 66 508 464 127 26 0 18 8 6 32 94 2.94 .274 .329 .446 .775 7.25 2.47 1.39
Hutchison/Navarro 4 21.0 2 1 5.57 15 13 95 84 32 6 0 0 5 2 7 21 3.00 .381 .432 .452 .884 9.00 3.00 0.00
Hutchison/Thole 1 6.0 0 0 3.00 2 2 23 22 5 3 0 0 1 0 1 9 9.00 .227 .261 .364 .625 13.50 1.50 0.00
Oh, Drew. It just doesn't matter.
Which brings us to the two guys who are at the root of The Mystery.
G IP W L ERA R ER PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BAVG OBP SLG OPS K/9 Bb/9 HR/9Estrada started the year in the bullpen, and appeared in six games as a reliever. Martin was the catcher every time, as he continued to be when Estrada moved into the rotation. He went 3-3, 5.01 in his first 8 starts, all with Martin catching. On June 19, Estrada made his first start with Navarro behind the plate, and Martin hasn't caught a single inning with Estrada since. I suspect some of what we're seeing here is Martin getting all the starts when Estrada was stretching himself out and transitioning from the pen to the rotation.
Estrada/Martin 14 61.3 3 3 4.11 31 28 261 238 58 11 3 7 5 2 20 50 2.50 .244 .307 .403 .710 7.34 2.93 1.03
Estrada/Navarro 15 86.0 8 5 2.51 24 24 337 303 54 10 2 11 2 3 28 61 2.18 .178 .251 .333 .585 6.38 2.93 1.15
G IP W L ERA R ER PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BAVG OBP SLG OPS K/9 Bb/9 HR/9This is a little more complicated. Dioner Navarro began the season as Buehrle's personal catcher, with Martin handling the other four starters. But Navarro was injured early, after catching Buehrle's first two games. Thole took his roster spot and assumed the knuckleball catching duties, with Martin again handling the other four starters. Buehrle went 4-4, 5.26 in Navarro's absence, with Martin behind the plate.
Buehrle/Martin 19 119.3 9 7 4.22 58 56 496 464 134 31 4 11 0 1 18 59 3.28 .289 .313 .444 .757 4.45 1.36 0.83
Buehrle/Navarro 8 55.0 5 0 2.62 17 16 220 209 50 10 1 8 0 0 9 21 2.33 .239 .274 .411 .685 3.44 1.47 1.31
Navarro returned on June 3, resumed his role as Buehrle's personal catcher, and Buehrle immediately tossed a six-hit shutout and followed that up with two more strong starts. But it was at this point that Gibbons tried Navarro behind the plate with Estrada (which worked well) and Hutchison (made no difference.) Martin caught Buehrle's next seven starts, and the old man was outstanding (4-1, 2.03). Navarro got three more Buehrle starts at the beginning of August, with Martin showing signs of wear, but with Thole joining the team to take on the Dickey duties, and Navarro and Estrada having evidently an effective tandem, Martin has caught Buehrle's last four starts. Which coincides perfectly with when his season went into the crapper (1-2, 6.98). Essentially, Buehrle has had three extended stints with Martin catching - one was outstanding, the others were... not so good, as Captain Kramer once said.
Buehrle is, by far, the easiest pitcher on the staff to catch, in terms of receiving the ball. He doesn't throw particularly hard and he generally hits his catcher's glove. Buehrle's demands on his catcher, such as they are, are entirely mental. Many if not most pitchers prefer to call their own game, or at least have some say in the matter, and the catcher needs to try to think along with them. But Buehrle famously throws whatever his catcher calls for, without hesitation. Catchers do expect to carry this burden for every pitcher - Buehrle is one of the few pitchers who actually lets them. This would really only be a problem with an extremely inexperienced catcher. It can take a catcher with no previous experience with Buehrle a half dozen games or so to figure out how to work with the old fella - we saw this with Arencibia in 2013 and Martin this year.
But they do figure it out. Martin went through a learning curve with Buehrle early in the season, they worked brilliantly together in mid-season, and Martin's been on the spot as the old man started running out of gas these last few weeks. I expect he'll bounce back - he always does (knocks furiously on wood) - I'm just not sure that Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium III are the places to expect it to happen.
Anyway - I started out looking at Martin's numbers, wondering what was up with that - and I've basically convinced myself.... not much, really!
