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Rounds 11-40 of the draft are on today.

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2017 Blue Jays MLB Draft - Day 3 | 84 comments | Create New Account
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Gerry - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#343522) #
The 11th round pick is a RHP from college, Donnie Sellers.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#343523) #
He's been a reliever and, more recently, a starter... His delivery screams reliever to me. Short-arms the ball a bit with some effort. But reportedly can hit the mid 90s as a reliever but works more 91-92 as a starter.

I thought for sure they'd go higher ceiling with the 11th pick.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#343525) #
He is also under six feet tall, unlikely to be a Stroman, likely to be a reliever.

12th round pick is another college RHP, Matt Shannon, 22 years old. He is 6'3".
Nigel - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#343526) #
It's possible they didn't scout any HS players:)
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#343527) #
Regardless of what they've said in the media the last two days the Jays are definitely focused in on college guys and have now moved on to very small schools in lesser divisions - these aren't "the best players available" unless you contort that to be "the best player available based on our specific criteria of sticking close to budget and focusing on high floor, low ceiling options to provide organizational depth"

Here is something BA wrote about Shannon in FEB: RHP Matt Shannon, a low-90s sinkerballer with excellent control and an impressive changeup, gives Angelo State (Texas) an anchor to build its rotation around.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#343528) #
The Jays mixed it up in the 13th round, this time its a left handed pitcher from college, Brody Rodning.

Shi Davidi talked with Steve Sanders yesterday and Sanders claims its just a coincidence that they picked college players. Every time the Jays came to pick, except one, the college player was the best available.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#343529) #
And the scouting reports seem to all be the same for the hurlers: secondary pitches are all inconsistent -- not one pitcher has had a plus secondary offering.
ramone - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#343530) #
Gerry did Sanders expand on why they didn't pick the best player available in the once instance?
Gerry - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#343531) #
The one instance was the high school catcher they selected, he was the BPA, but only once was a high schooler the BPA.
ramone - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#343532) #
Right, my bad, completely forgot about that pick. I actually like day 1 of the draft, definitely feels like a JPR draft for the remainder, but as always time will tell.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#343533) #
Finally a HS kid.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#343535) #
14th round, PK Morris from Steinbrenner HS. He is a 1B.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#343536) #
Patrick Morris - was a two-way player in HS as a LHP and 1B/OF... is committed to Florida Atlantic.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#343537) #
seems bizarre to me that an FO led by guys like shapkins and cherington, whose only draft success in the past has come from toolsy teenagers like lindor and betts, would put together a draft like this.
bpoz - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#343538) #
How much are these players going to sign for? Bauxites so far seem disappointed. We have to spend the money. There has to be a plan.

hypobole - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#343539) #
Morris - Uncommitted junior standing at 6-foot-1 185-pounds as a left handed hitter. Morris was balanced in the box with a slightly open set up with good rhythm. He has a short, quick swing with a slightly uphill path with good hand eye coordination. There is some current power in the swing and as he continues to get stronger there will be more to come.

Prep Baseball report
Gerry - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#343540) #
15th round, Ryan Noda, an outfielder from college. I will stop the round by round now as we get deeper into the draft.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#343543) #
College players selected after the tenth round will get peanuts, anywhere from $1,000 to $10,000. The high school guy will likely get more to persuade him not to go to college unless he really wants to turn pro and/or not have to study.
bpoz - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#343544) #
For me this draft is uninspiring because the top 200 list that I am referring to is not the same as the Jay's list. I cannot find any one on my list.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#343545) #
Here is a theory based on no evidence.....

The Jays drafts under JP Ricciardi were somewhat uninspiring. The Jays were prioritizing college players because that was the Oakland way. It was the moneyball era and that caused a lot of teams to look to college players.

That move caused a relative imbalance between the value a team could get between drafting college or HS players. With more demand for college players the return went down and with less demand for HS players the return went up.

I don't know what the current balance in value is between college and HS players. I assume its much more even because there is more analytics applied to the draft now. But there is a sense that teams want to pick HS pitchers in particular because they can control their work load and try and prevent catastrophic injuries.

Here comes the theory with no evidence:

Maybe HS pitchers have become overvalued and so the value in the draft is in HS hitters and college players. I don't know how you prove this but its too easy to assume the Jays are repeating what was done in Cleveland even though that wasn't successful. That suggests a level of hubris or arrogance that I hope is not true.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#343546) #
Anyone have anything on Kobie Russell?
PeterG - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#343548) #
It seems that most teams are now emphasizing college picks, not just the Jays. The current word on HS pitchers is that they are the least desirable commodity. Look at the projected 1st rounders or close that fell yesterday: Carlson, Sauer, Crouse.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#343549) #
Russell has been playing shortstop but was drafted as a catcher. From Hawaii prep world:

Marauders coach Milton Takenaka talked about the scouting of Russell.

“He had a workout (recently) with a Diamonbacks scout,” Takenaka said. “The Toronto Blue Jays were here, and San Diego Padres, and one other scout, about four of them. Kobe went with Duane Eldredge‘s Team Aloha (traveling) team to Arizona last summer and got noticed. He had a good tournament and got some kind of a look out there.”

Russell had an oral commitment to Hawaii as a junior, but has since decommitted, according to Takenaka, who added that other colleges, including USC, have shown an interest.

“The scouts are projecting him to be a catcher,” Takenaka said. “In the offseason, he was working behind the plate, but he’s not playing there in high school. He’s playing where we need him most. He can make it as a catcher; he has the tools. He’s a real good kid, a hard worker who will listen.”
bpoz - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#343550) #
Kobie Russell and Cordell Dunn. Both HS catchers. Everything is different this draft.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#343551) #
AA's new team, the Dodgers, have drafted two high school players so far (4th and 11th round). A quick scan of the Yankees shows that they have also only taken two high school players (2nd and 4th round). I may have missed some, just going by the MLB draft tracker, but that's two front offices that I'd trust with drafting that have followed the same blue print to this point. High school players become a lot riskier to draft around this time since they likely hung around this long due to college commitments.

Either way, this is a big change from the previous FO's drafting. Ricciardi's plan was to draft college players exclusively to provide cheap talent at the big league level as quickly as possible (back when the team was operating under a very low payroll). Godfrey was also against going overslot so it was a huge mess in terms of infusing talent into the system. AA's philosophy was the exact opposite. I trust a front office of Shapiro, Atkins, Cherington, Sanders, etc, a lot more than JP's front office, and we will see if the current regime can develop/draft hitters better than the previous one (it will be difficult for them to match the pitching success).
Gerry - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#343552) #
John Sickels on Cordell Dunn, HS catcher, 19th round.

I really, really like Dunn. The son of a former minor league pitcher, he’s one of the younger prospects in this year’s draft. He shows some real potential behind the plate, but he’s still raw back there. I’m a big fan of his swing - well, not the swing, but the results. He pretty consistently barrels the ball in spite of some ugly swing mechanics. With professional coaching, he could really boost his power potential. He ends the second tier of catchers for me.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#343553) #
Dunn from perfect game:
Cordell Dunn is a 2017 C/3B with a 6-0 190 lb. frame from Olive Branch, MS who attends Center Hill HS. Solid athletic build with good present strength. Has good athleticism behind the plate, shifts well with quick feet, strong hands receiving the ball, quick release on his throws, 1.93 best pop time, can use his lower half better throwing. Right handed hitter, upper body swing from a simple leg lift load, pretty still start with his hands, has strength in his swing and can impact the ball hard, swing is slightly uphill, just like his throwing he doesn't use his strong lower half enough to generate power and balance. Has the athleticism to keep improving with adjustments. Good student, verbal commitment to Texas Tech.
bpoz - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#343554) #
If there are many HS pitchers with high ranking not drafted, then when they are eligible again there will still be a big supply of them. Maybe it is a budget thing.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#343555) #
I suspect budget is a big factor with high school pitchers. They have tons of leverage but for every Roy Halladay there are dozens of Brien Taylor, and Brady Aiken types (2 #1 overall picks who were high school pitchers). Only 5 players were taken #1 overall and didn't reach the majors - those 2 plus Mark Appel (college RHP), and Steven Chilcott (CA high school). Plus last years Mickey Moniak (HS OF).
hypobole - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#343556) #
Plus now, there are draft pool allotments. Ours is around $8.2 million.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#343557) #
Jays 22nd round pick, Gunner Halter is the son of Shane Halter. Another former major league offspring.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#343560) #
23rd round Daniel Ritcheson, HS RHP, ranked #187 by BA. The fact that he lasted until now suggests it is highly likely he goes to school instead. BA's scouting report suggests he should:

Ritcheson experienced a whirlwind spring, rising quickly up draft boards when his previously 88-90 mph fastball touched 95 mph as a senior, but then falling back down after critical reports on his makeup. A converted catcher who has only pitched for two years, Ritcheson stands 6-foot-4, 210 pounds and operates 92-95 mph with his fastball out of a high three-quarters delivery, although it lacks deception or plane. He shows feel to spin a plus breaking ball but is inconsistent. Despite those promising building blocks, Ritcheson often ran into trouble on the mound because he lost concentration and did not handle adversity well, throwing his glove and shouting obscenities when things didn't go his way. Evaluators largely like Ritcheson's stuff but feel he should go to college to mature. He is committed to San Diego State.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#343561) #
Jays just popped (I think) their first Canadian kid - Cooper Davis but he's committed to Vanderbilt so will no doubt be a very, very tough sign.
jester00 - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#343563) #
Think Tanner Kirwer (20th) is Canadian? Alberta boy I believe.
dan gordon - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#343571) #
Yankees just took Tristan Beck, ranked #53. I hoped the Jays might take a shot at him.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#343574) #
Why wasn't Beck drafted sooner? He's a college guy.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#343575) #
I believe he said he wants to go back and finish his degree. Most players are drafted after their third year so they leave school with no degree.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#343583) #
It's easy to finish your degree. Take what you can on-line, after the Short-Season Team is finished, he can catch a semester of classes as needed to finish. That shouldn't make it hard to sign right now.
mendocino - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#343586) #
OF DJ Neal sleeper pick?

https://www.seccountry.com/south-carolina/former-south-carolina-wr-dj-neal-selected-mlb-draft
PeterG - Wednesday, June 14 2017 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#343590) #
It appears from the article that Neal intends to sign.
dan gordon - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#343606) #
Beck also had a fracture in his back this year and didn't pitch. Certainly worth a mid round flyer, he was great in 2016. If the Yankees can convince him to sign, they have a guy who would have been a 1st round pick if healthy.
Glevin - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 04:41 AM EDT (#343608) #
Are people really complaining about 11th round picks? If there was anyone signable with upside there, they'd be long long gone. After the first few rounds, it's pretty much a crapshoot. According to the BA big board, the Jays got the #19, #13, #61, #72, and #79 prospects. For Keith Law, the Jays got the #7, #28, #42, and #89 prospects. Either way, the Jays got 4 or 5 of the top 100 players in the draft. Not sure how anyone can be unhappy with this (because they didn't take a high school player in the 7th round?)

FYI, there are 33 drafted players who have a WAR of 2 or more so far this year. Of those, 18 were drafted in the first round, 5 in the 2nd round and 10 after that. (mostly in rounds 3-6). It's not just elite players.If you go through teams, very few players outside the first couple of rounds ever make an impact.
SK in NJ - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 06:14 AM EDT (#343609) #
Jim Callis had the Jays having the 5th best draft this year.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/236553468/twins-used-no-1-pick-to-have-best-2017-draft/

"5. Blue Jays
One of three teams with two first-round picks, Toronto used its selections on the top college shortstop (North Carolina's Logan Warmoth) and the owner of the best fastball in the college ranks (JC of Central Florida right-hander Nate Pearson).

California prep right-hander Hagen Danner (second) can also light up radar guns, and interested some teams more as a catcher. University of San Diego catcher Riley Adams (third) has impressive arm strength and power potential, while University of Maryland shortstop Kevin Smith (fourth) and William & Mary second baseman Cullen Large (fifth) are offensive-minded middle infielders.

Wake Forest right-hander Donnie Sellers (11th) and Minnesota State-Mankato lefty Brody Rodning (13th) are quality third-day selections. Want a sleeper from the really late rounds? Try University of South Carolina-Sumter outfielder DJ Neal (26th), who began his college career as a wide receiver at the University of South Carolina."
whiterasta80 - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 07:40 AM EDT (#343610) #
Almost inevitably teams with multiple first round picks are lauded for having good drafts. Really, it's just that they had bad offseasons...

I'm ok with this draft but it would have been nice to add a few more toolsy players.
85bluejay - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 08:14 AM EDT (#343611) #
Didn't Baseball America pronounce JPR's first draft in 2002 as the best draft - that was in the everything moneyball is great era - how'd that turn out? who know's , after all nobody was saying the Angels had the best pick in Mike Trout the next day - but I find it difficult to believe that a college player was BPA so often when the Jays picked. I expect that the Jays college picks will probably beat up on the HS kids in short season play prompting all kinds of excitement - ala 2002-2005.
SK in NJ - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 08:32 AM EDT (#343612) #
Honestly, it's all subjective, and the draft itself is a huge crapshoot. Some will say the Jays had a good draft, others will say it was average or poor, but ultimately, none of us have a darn clue about how it will turn out in the end.
hypobole - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#343614) #
No MLB team takes BPA more than a few times. Teams only have so much they're allowed to spend. Some teams end up never taking the BPA, because they can't pay what the player is asking.
jerjapan - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#343619) #
Claiming someone objectively had the best draft would be crazy, but the phrase 'crapshoot' is pretty overused. If the draft is a pure crapshoot, we wouldn't see certain organizations consistently drafting better than others, we wouldn't see great teams with lower picks consistently drafting well (Boston, NY) and we wouldn't have a run of consistent draft excellence like AA had.

Put me down as not being overly worried about our drafting turning into 'Cleveland North'. I'm pretty neutral on Shapiro overall, but the guys much to smart not to have learned from his draft failures with Cleveland.

And there are plenty of value picks available after the 10th round - the idea that they are all gone is ignoring history - Tellez was a 30th round pick. Hutch came in the 15th round. Our 39th rounder last year, Chavez Young, got a 200K bonus for a reason. Signability, projectability, previous relationships between players and scouts, or players and specific orgs - there are all sorts of reasons why talented players remain on the board all through the draft. Even college guys picked late can still have upside - our lowest signing bonus for a college player in the first 30 rounds last year was 60K

Heck, these draftees are kids - kids change their minds all the time.

Industry consensus is pretty positive on our draft so far, but I'll consider it a success if we actually sign a few of those key later round picks by going overslot.
SK in NJ - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#343623) #
Obviously some organizations are better at identifying/developing talent than others, but that doesn't mean the draft itself is not a crapshoot, especially from where the Jays were picking in the first round.

I don't think Shapiro's time in Cleveland is really relevant here. Different scouting directors, different CBA, etc. Whether this current draft is looked at fondly can only be determined in time, but counting the amount of college picks and immediately comparing it to JPR is a bit reactionary.
Maldoff - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#343626) #
So who are the late round picks we should be watching to see if they sign this year?
Chuck - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#343631) #
Tommy Lasorda have any more godchildren?
hypobole - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#343634) #
There were some great HS picks taken later in the draft during AA's tenure, but....

The 3 best guys went unsigned (Bryant in '10 and Nola and Weaver in '11). Tellez might turn into something, but that's taken a pretty big hit this year, especially for a 1B who's defence is panned. Other high schoolers after the 1st 3 rounds that the Jays gave sizable bonuses have pretty well all underachieved, though the jury is still out on a couple.
bpoz - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#343635) #
This draft has thrown us a curveball. It certainly has fooled me badly.

A lot has been mentioned by various Bauxites, regarding theory and strategy. Thanks for brain storming. Especially Gerry's theory.

I fully agree and accept, almost demand in some cases, that our college picks destroy SS ball. The ones whose calling card is power could/should destroy those SS bull pens. For me it will mean nothing, I hope. I want to see them do it in higher leagues.
uglyone - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#343641) #
so much of this draft imo depends on our first pick being legit. hopefully warmoth looks as solid as zeuch does a year from now, and hopefully one of pearson/danner pops up like bichette. well, not like Bichette because that would be too good to be true but a nkce standout first impression from either one would be nice.
mendocino - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#343653) #
4R SS Kevin Smith - plans on signing
https://518sports.com/three-area-players-selected-in-mlb-draft/

27R LHP Sam Weatherly - Not signing, going to Clemson
http://www.livingstondaily.com/story/sports/2017/06/15/howells-sam-weatherly-drafted-27th-round-toronto-blue-jays/399660001/

28R 3B Davis Schneider - Leaning towards signing (Rutgers option)
http://highschoolsports.nj.com/news/article/-3912593104761736720/baseball-easterns-davis-scheneider-taken-in-28th-round-by-blue-jays-leaning-toward-signing/

31R RHP Graham Spraker - Signing, off to Dunedin friday
http://www.whig.com/20170615/blue-jays-tap-qu-pipeline-again-draft-spraker#

34R RHP Maverick Buffo - Leaning towards signing
http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/baseball/byu-s-maverik-buffo-drafted-by-the-blue-jays-in/article_7524aa0c-abad-5c77-a793-fb7132dc20ff.html
jerjapan - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#343655) #
Great question Maldoff.  I can't pretend to be knowledgeable on college / HS prospects, but it's the HS guys who are ranked prospects who slip in the draft due to their contract demands or commitments to a school that generally fall to the later rounds and represent the sort of value that Tellez did. 

Guys like those Mendocino linked to -  Weatherly, Schneider, and Maverick Buffo fit that bill (and how good of a baseball name is Maverick Buffo)? 19th rounder Cordell Dunn, 23rd rounder Daniel Ritcheson, 25th round Canadian Cooper Davis, 28th rounder Davis Schneider and 39th rounder Ben Fariss are also in that camp.



mendocino - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#343662) #
stats that don't mean much, college players only
Rd Player AVG GP-GS AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB SLG% BB HBP SO GDP OB% SF SH SB-ATT PO A E FLD%
1 Logan Warmoth.... .336 63-63 271 60 91 19 5 10 49 150 .554 28 5 47 6 .404 3 0 18-21 86 143 7 .970
3 Riley Adams...... .312 54-54 202 45 63 12 0 13 47 114 .564 33 10 57 0 .424 5 0 2-2 328 51 3 .992
4 Kevin Smith...... .268 54-54 194 38 52 10 3 13 48 107 .552 14 5 48 3 .323 7 3 4-4 88 138 12 .950
5 #Cullen Large..... .338 56-56 225 45 76 16 2 6 39 114 .507 26 7 37 3 .419 2 0 5-7 105 120 5 .978
6 *Brock Lundquist.. .277 63-61 231 31 64 13 5 4 26 99 .429 32 12 58 3 .388 3 3 10-13 89 2 2 .978
8 *Kacy Clemens..... .305 62-62 220 48 67 14 0 12 49 117 .532 40 4 50 4 .414 4 0 10-11 562 31 5 .992 SR
15 *Ryan Noda........ .236 55-52 178 43 42 12 2 9 30 85 .478 33 12 68 1 .388 1 2 9-11 436 21 1 .998
20 Tanner Kirwer.... .335 48-47 194 47 65 20 0 2 29 91 .469 26 8 31 2 .430 2 1 23-25 124 2 1 .992
35 Brandon Polizzi.. .381 49-49 215 38 82 11 1 0 21 95 .442 16 3 20 4 .428 2 1 14-17 121 57 9 .952 d2

Rd Player ERA W-L APP GS CG SHO/CBO SV IP H R ER BB SO 2B 3B HR AB B/Avg WP HBP BK SFA SHA
7 Colton Laws...... 1.87 7-2 15 15 1 1/2 0 96.1 76 24 20 13 94 12 1 5 356 .213 0 0 0 2 3
9 *Zach Logue....... 4.97 7-5 18 15 0 0/0 0 87.0 93 53 48 25 88 22 0 20 349 .266 2 8 0 2 4
10 Justin Dillon.... 3.36 5-8 19 17 3 1/1 0 112.1 91 50 42 26 108 14 1 14 413 .220 11 7 1 2 4 SR
11 Donnie Sellers... 4.71 3-5 17 14 0 0/1 0 84.0 83 56 44 29 60 19 0 6 321 .259 14 12 1 6 7
12 Shannon, Matt.... 2.21 4-2 7 6 1 0/1 1 40.2 26 11 10 16 37 1 0 2 142 .183 3 1 0 0 2 d2
13 *Brody Rodning.... 3.47 6-4 13 12 5 3/0 1 70.0 54 31 27 34 77 8 1 4 254 .213 6 5 0 2 6 d2
16 Ty Tice.......... 4.45 2-3 22 7 0 0/1 8 56.2 54 35 28 34 67 12 1 5 213 .254 10 8 0 1 7
18 *Jordan Barrett... 3.22 4-5 17 13 0 0/0 0 78.1 58 38 28 32 100 11 1 5 284 .204 11 6 0 3 7 SR
21 Turner Larkins... 3.38 1-2 9 5 0 0/0 0 26.2 24 13 10 11 20 7 0 1 96 .250 4 4 0 2 2
24 Colin Brockhouse. 3.98 3-2 10 8 0 0/0 0 40.2 31 19 18 19 40 5 0 2 153 .203 4 5 3 1 4
29 *Joe DiBenedetto.. 4.30 6-4 17 8 0 0/0 0 58.2 69 40 28 24 58 10 1 6 227 .291 2 2 1 3 3 d2 SR
31 Graham Spraker... 2.44 7-5 15 13 1 0/1 0 88.2 79 40 24 33 80 8 2 4 332 .238 8 7 0 1 8 d2 SR
32 Jacob Condra-Bogan 4.50 5-3 19 6 1 0/0 0 56.0 63 34 28 18 53 14 0 4 221 .285 6 6 2 1 3 SR
33 *Matthew Gunter... 2.08 6-4 12 12 5 1/1 0 86.1 59 25 20 29 102 10 1 2 305 .193 6 10 0 2 8 d2 SR
34 Maverik Buffo.... 6.01 7-7 16 16 0 0/2 0 88.1 112 69 59 34 73 20 2 6 363 .309 7 4 0 4 4
36 Jonathan Cheshire 2.21 9-3 35 0 0 0/5 11 105.2 87 32 26 15 113 19 1 1 383 .227 8 10 3 3 5 naia SR
37 Justin Watts..... 3.58 5-2 22 1 0 0/1 7 32.2 26 14 13 8 42 7 0 3 120 .217 2 4 0 1 2 d2 SR
38 *Marcus Reyes..... 2.96 4-2 27 1 0 0/2 0 54.2 49 24 18 14 40 15 1 3 207 .237 1 1 0 3 2
Waveburner - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#343666) #
"hopefully warmoth looks as solid as zeuch does a year from now"

Is this what most people think? I see Zeuch's 42 K's in 53 innings with more than a hit allowed per inning as basically the same mediocre production as Jenkins, McGuire and Harris. I'm getting close to writing him off as a reliever or bust. Though of course I'd love to be wrong.

Does anyone have a reason to be more encouraged by Zeuch?

Mike Green - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#343668) #
Maverik Buffo

Boffo name.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#343671) #
Among the high school guys, Ritcheson and Weatherly will almost certainly require going well over the $125K you can pay without penalty in the later rounds. Cooper Davis is a Vanderbilt commit, and might be even harder to sign.

Schneider and Russell have already indicated they are likely to sign, which leaves Dunn, Morris, Ross and Fariss as unknowns.

If the Jays manage to sign one of the first group and two or three of the last group, I think it would be a pretty successful back end of the draft.
sam - Thursday, June 15 2017 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#343675) #
Waveburner,

I did not see Zeuch when he was in Vancouver, but have seen a fair bit of video. I would wait a bit on him. The Jays have played with his delivery and he wasn't a polished college guy in the first place. With that being said, I don't think there's much there other than a mid-rotation guy. His arm action is pretty poor in that he short arms the ball--I think this is going to take away from his overall innings and lead to some injuries down the line. It also means you're unlikely to see any more velocity or sustained velocity in his career. He seems like a guy who should look at a splitter as a secondary offering.
uglyone - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#343677) #
waveburner, imo not only is zeuch putting up significantly better fips than those guys, but unlike them he's also posting an elite gb%, which is nice. And even better he's doing a year younger than they were at the same point - he's the only one of them that is actually pitching at an age appropriate level in his post draft season. For me those are three significant factors that make zeuch more promising than those guys at this point.


A+, post draft season:

Zeuch (21): 18.1k%, 6.0bb%, 61.1gb%, 3.23era, 3.23fip, 3.28xfip
McGuire (22): 23.2k%, 8.7bb%, 40.9gb%, 2.75era, 3.82fip, 3.78xfip
Jenkins (22): 15.0k%, 6.4bb%, 52.6gb%, 4.33era, 4.20fip, 3.64xfip
Harris (22): 14.3k%, 7.7bb%, 50.7gb%, 3.60era, 3.68fip, 4.06xfip

Glevin - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 03:45 AM EDT (#343682) #
"Claiming someone objectively had the best draft would be crazy, but the phrase 'crapshoot' is pretty overused. If the draft is a pure crapshoot, we wouldn't see certain organizations consistently drafting better than others, we wouldn't see great teams with lower picks consistently drafting well (Boston, NY) and we wouldn't have a run of consistent draft excellence like AA had."

AA only had consistent draft excellence because he accumulated a ton of picks which was smart but hides the fact that the Jays also had tons of bad picks. Look at the drafts, what stands out is not drafting well, it's the number of picks the Jays had. In 3 years, the Jays had 18 picks in the 1st round and sandwich rounds so the Jays hitting on 4 or 5 players is not great drafting, it's increasing the odds they get someone worthwhile (and it worked). Also, why people call the draft a crapshoot is not because of the end of the first round. The first round will have a good chance of getting a player back. The draft is a craphsoot because after the first round or three, the chances of any player making the majors is very slim. Even the bad players in the majors are very often taken in the top few rounds.


"And there are plenty of value picks available after the 10th round - the idea that they are all gone is ignoring history - Tellez was a 30th round pick. Hutch came in the 15th round. Our 39th rounder last year, Chavez Young, got a 200K bonus for a reason. Signability, projectability, previous relationships between players and scouts, or players and specific orgs - there are all sorts of reasons why talented players remain on the board all through the draft. Even college guys picked late can still have upside - our lowest signing bonus for a college player in the first 30 rounds last year was 60K"

No, this is exactly what a crapshoot is. For example, Pillar was the 32nd round pick which is very rare to even sniff the majors but look at the rest of the draft after round 6. Either unsignable players (Luke Weaver, Aaron Nola) or just players that went nowhere. So, one out of 45 picks hits. Tellez was round 30. Have the Jays ever had another round 30 even taste the majors? Probably not. Again, that is exactly what a crapshoot is. Even early rounders are a crapshoot. Since 2000, from rounds 4-10 the only Jays draft picks to do anything are Farquar, Descalfani, Boyd, Graveman, Loup, Goins, Rzepczynski and Schmipf. That's 120 picks early in the draft and what is there? A handful of back-end starters, some middle relievers and a couple of utility guys. Drafts are about getting talent in the first couple of rounds and hopefully getting lucky later.
GabrielSyme - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 06:19 AM EDT (#343685) #
"No, this is exactly what a crapshoot is. For example, Pillar was the 32nd round pick which is very rare to even sniff the majors but look at the rest of the draft after round 6... So, one out of 45 picks hits. Tellez was round 30. Have the Jays ever had another round 30 even taste the majors? Probably not. Again, that is exactly what a crapshoot is."

I don't agree. What we have, especially in the later rounds, are low-probability choices. Let's say one organisation has a 2% success rate; and another has a 4% success rate. The profiles of both organisations will look like crapshoots, but in fact one organisation is twice as effective as the other.

The hard thing is to be able to identify not just present ability, but the hints that that talent could translate into value at the major league level. Some organisations seem to be better than others at doing so, and I hope the Jays will become one of those better drafting teams.
Marc Hulet - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 06:54 AM EDT (#343686) #
Nice piece on Rodning: http://m.calgarysun.com/2017/06/15/blue-jays-rodning-pitched-through-off-field-adversity-before-mlb-draft
scottt - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 07:47 AM EDT (#343687) #
Thanks for the link Marc, a human story amongst all the numbers.
mathesond - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#343691) #
"Have the Jays ever had another round 30 even taste the majors?"

Wasn't Orlando Hudson a 43rd round pick, or something ridiculous like that?
hypobole - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#343692) #
As far as draft being a crapshoot, it basically is, but there are factors both in the draft and elsewhere that have influenced the raw numbers.

1 - MONEY. No way Posey should have gone 6 - most everyone thought he was better. Teams passed on him because they either couldn't or wouldn't meet his price. Porcello and Castellanos are more recent examples. As for "unsignable " picks, it's rare we get to hear the money demanded, but most have a price teams just aren't willing to pay. Teams have to balance chance of success with their draft budgets, and in the past, small market teams traditionally had smaller budgets, hence less probability of success. There were also Commissioners monetary guidelines that teams either followed or didn't. Jays were given money in the past when the Cdn $ tanked because they were good boys in this regard.

2 - Player Development. Jack Z's picks constantly underachieved. Cards and Giants on the other hand seemed to get more out of their pool of players than was believed at the time. Bautista is a shining example. Over half million bonus as a draft and follow, but stagnated with multiple orgs until the Jays revamped his swing.

3 - Scouting. How many and how good? Jays famously scouted Thor extensively more extensively and had more info than most any other team. The Rangers canned the scout that reportedly failed to follow up after Thor's velo bump.

4. Poor GM decisions. GM's most often get final say on the 1st pick, by far the most important pick. JPR famously overruling his scouts on Russ Adams, then compounding the failure by taking Romero over Tulo. Jim Hendry and his famous Hayden Simpson pick.

And yeah, factors like pure luck, injuries, etc.

So the draft is a crapshoot, but the dice have traditionally been loaded in favour of some and against others.

hypobole - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#343693) #
Thought I fixed it - Posey went 5th , not 6th.
lexomatic - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#343709) #
Encouraging thoughts from Sickels: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/6/15/15812716/2017-mlb-draft-american-league-eastern-division-reviews

IMPRESSIONS: This strikes me as an excellent balance between future potential and current performance with no shortage of upside

And finally someone who calls Warmoth a good defender. I was getting so confused by comparisons to Hardy with questions about whether he could stick at SS.
PeterG - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#343715) #
Where are Warmoth (1st) and Smith (4th), both listed as ss going to play to begin their careers.....by that I mean what team and level? My first thought would have been Vancouver but a very good prospect, Kevin Vicuna is starting at SS for the C's. Might they promote Bichette and try Warmoth at Lansing? What about Kevin Smith?
jerjapan - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#343719) #
Glevin, I didn't mention Pillar precisely because he does represent the less predictable side of the draft - but he's not at all comparable to Tellez, nor is Tellez at all comparable to other 30th round picks.  

I don't think the crapshoot argument makes sense, even intuitively - why would all 30 orgs put so many resources into scouting?  Why is their an entire prospecting industry?  Are guys like John Sickels, or some of our own Box contributors, not impressively knowledgeable about these kids?  why do we trust BP or BA and not Bleacher report?  Why does the draft go 40 rounds deep?  Far too many smart people, with far more knowledge than any of us internet fans, are deeply involved in the industry for us to call it a 'crapshoot'. 

I totally acknowledge that it's far likelier to get talent in the first few rounds. 

FWIW, Casey Jansen was a pretty good reliever, drafted in the 4th round, 2004, Yan Gomes was a 10th rounder in 2009, Sam Dyson, 4th round 2010 and there's this Eric Thames guy, drafted in the 7th round, 2008.  not to mention guys still in the org with a shot, like Conner Greene (7th rounder), Chad Girodo, Ian Parmley, John Stilson, Tom Robson, Lane Thomas, Jordan Romano and a bunch of prospects from 2015 and 2016. 

I think GabrielSyme put it very well - the difference between a strong drafting org and a weak one may not be huge, but it does exist. 

Not sure who initially posted this, but this article shows some orgs do indeed have a significant, long-term advantage over others, and one that is not based on the number of picks or the money available. 

http://www.thebaseball.blog/who-drafts-the-best/

scottt - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#343733) #
Sanders said they picked Warmoth because they think he sticks at shortstop.
PeterG - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#343755) #
Colin Brockhouse tweets that he is heading to Dunedin today.
John Northey - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#343764) #
Time for the fun of seeing which draft picks will stay and which will go back to another draft. Bluebird Banter has a great table. So far the Jays have signed their last pick of the draft with 5 more 'will sign' and 1 might sign, 1 appears will sign, 70-30 to sign, 1 signing?, just 1 unlikely to sign (same status as Tellez had until he signed). Nothing listed for the top 5 picks.
bpoz - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#343765) #
Low ranking college pitchers have .... at least a chance to make it as a bull pen arm. Tepera, Barnes.
With the high cost of bull pen arms it makes some sense to try. Those 15 round and lower college arms are cheap to sign. If they succeed then it is a V good return.
PeterG - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#343766) #
Robert Murray of Fan Rags tweets that Riley Adams has agreed to slot.
PeterG - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#343781) #
Here is the link to an excellent article on Hagen Danner. It sounds like he is leaning heavily towards signing.

https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/6/18/15825398/toronto-blue-jays-hagen-danner-mlb-draft-ucla-little-league-world-series
PeterG - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#343789) #
It appears that D J Neal will sign according to his twitter account.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#343790) #
http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/baseball/mlb/i-just-had-to-find-a-way-to-fight-through-toronto-blue-jays-prospect-brody-rodning-pitched-through-adversity-en-route-to-draft

13th Round #399: LHP Brody Rodning looks to be signing.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#343791) #
https://twitter.com/robertmurrayfrs/status/876414949643440128

3rd Round #99: C Riley Adams signed for slot.
PeterG - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#343814) #
Sellers has now been signed according to Jim Callis.
mendocino - Tuesday, June 20 2017 @ 12:07 AM EDT (#343888) #
s 3 Riley Adams $542,400/542,400
s 4 Kevin Smith $405,100/405,100
s 5 #Cullen Large $302,100/302,100
s 6 *Brock Lundquist $125,000/233,900
s 7 Colton Laws $/183,300
s 8 *Kacy Clemens $ 50,000/152,100
s 9 *Zach Logue $/139,000
s10 Justin Dillon $/131,800

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/237042574/2017-draft-signing-and-bonus-tracker/

Draft picks signed: C Riley Adams (third round, No. 99), SS Kevin Smith (fourth round, No. 129), 2B Cullen Large (fifth round, No. 159), OF Brock Lundquist (sixth round, No. 189), RHP Colton Laws (seventh round, No. 219), 1B Kacy Clemens (eighth round, No. 249), LHP Zach Logue (ninth round, No. 279), RHP Justin Dillon (10th round, No. 309), RHP Donnie Sellers (11th round, No. 339), RHP Matt Shannon (12th round, No. 369), 1B Ryan Noda (15th round, No. 459), RHP Ty Tice (16th round, No. 489), LHP Jordan Barrett (18th round, No. 549), OF Tanner Kirwer (20th round, No. 609), OF D.J. Neal (26th round, No. 789), LHP Joseph DiBenedetto (29th round, No. 879), C Reilly Johnson (30th round, No. 909), RHP Graham Sparker (31st round, No. 939), LHP Matt Gunter (33rd round, No. 999), RHP Maverik Buffo (34th round, No. 1,029), OF Brandon Polizzi (35th round, No. 1,059), RHP Jonathan Cheshire (36th round, No. 1,089), RHP Justin Watts (37th round, No. 1,119), LHP Marcus Reyes (38th round, No. 1,149).

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/237523802/blue-jays-sign-roger-clemens-son-kacy/?topicid=151437456
scottt - Tuesday, June 20 2017 @ 04:55 AM EDT (#343894) #
I would expect the 2 first rounder to sign for slot, but they are probably trying get them for less to free up some money.
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