On the pre game show, it was revealed that a specialist has been brought in from Ohio to examine Sanchez' finger. Speculation is that most likely move to activate Joe Smith will be Sanchez to DL. If that happens, Valdez is expected to start Monday.

Morales second half wRC+: 127
Encarnacion second half wRC+: 39

Really greenfrog? Did you have to wave that red cape at EE? :)

When even Tabby thinks your bunting strategy is dumb you know it's baaaad.

Are you the lone remaining fan of the Morales deal Greenfrog?  Edwin's had a tough July.  He had a monster June.  Point?

It's getting to the point where if the Jays even get Sparkman back for Estrada, I'd be pleasantly surprised. It took two months to completely destroy his own trade value.

On the bright side, Estrada is helping us get a higher draft pick next year.

Something's wrong with Estrada for sure. but please, can we stop talking about Glen Sparkman?  His own mother has spoken about the guy less.

Forget about Glenn Sparkman - Estrada isn't even going to fetch back the 50k they spent to claim Sparkman in the first place.

Thankfully it's not that bad. Even if they were to release him and someone picks him up, they recoup the pro-rated minimum... So more like 150k.

Be nice to Estrada guys ... underdog made good, wants to resign with us .... those near no-hitters are pretty fresh in my mind.  these dollar signs are a bit demeaning.

Just a quick weigh-in on Morales - he's an easy target since he didn't go through the battles with the team the past 2 years, his GIDP is frankly nauseating, etc - but it's not like he's the only one not providing the hoped-for value on the roster.

As for the "deal", don't forget Guriel was an unofficial part of that deal. Any discussion as to the value of that signing needs to be include that aspect, as I'm sure it was a factor in the contract offer. And yes, I know, it wasn't a true package deal, but it was a package deal for all intents and purposes.

wait a minute ... there is no evidence at all that Morales and Guriel were some sort of package deal.  Conspiracy theory stuff bugs me. 

Morales isn't much of a problem. He will likely be better value over the duratution of his contract than Edwin. The big problems this year from the offense this year:

1) Tulo, Bautista, Donaldson slumming it up.

2) upper management's inability to find speed/athleticism for the top of the order and a real back up for Travis.

3) gibbons line up construction...change things up already:

Pearce
Tulowitzki
Donaldson
Smoak
Bautista
Morales
Martin
Pillar
Fields

That line up is weak but at least gives opposing teams a different look and hopefully uses Pearce to get on base to give better pitches to Tulo. Pearce would play 2nd and you ride and die with Tulo and Donaldson.

We also need to see if these two will rebound for next year because if not then you may as well concede 2018.

1009% agree with jj. Even if it's likely that Guerriel signed because of Morales, there is no evidence to show that Morales would have signed anywhere else.

He will likely be better value over the duratution of his contract than Edwin.

You are basing this expectation on what?

Morales, at age 34, has been a replacement level player this year. Last year he was good for just shy of 1 WAR. Let's say he rebounds to that level for the balance of 2017 and each of 2018 and 2019. That makes him worth about 2.5 WAR for 33M.

Encarnacion, also at age 34, is on pace for about a 2 WAR season. Let's say he never rebounds to Toronto levels and stays at 2 WAR. So, convservatively give him 2/2/2/1 for his 4-year contract. That's a total of 7 WAR for 80M.

So I'm assuming Morales gets better and that Encarnacion doesn't, and in fact slides at the end of his contract. We've got Morales at 2.5 WAR for 30M and Encarnacion at 7 WAR for 80M. For those assumed performance numbers, both are pricey, but the former especially so.

You may see things otherwise and I'd be keen to see your math.

BTW, I was not a fan of pursuing Encarnacion for 20M per year, so this is not a defense of the Encarnacion signing.

Wow. Talk about a comedy of errors Re: my spelling. My eyes and big fingers struggle with touch screen phones. In all likelihood my fingers / sight are in decline ala Tulo's bat speed.

Can I just say how sad I am that a player of Tulo's ilk never blossomed here in Toronto? I was at an event this year with Alomar, Barfield (super into himself - he would pull out his cell and show people videos of his arm strength abilities via archived videos...rewinding several times..."see the move I make ...right there? Watch again, right there. See that? if you don't pay attention you'll miss it. Look again, see that? That's the difference. Maybe Vlad gives me a run in his prime...maybe") and Moseby. I knew nothing of Moseby but he was by far the nicest and most knowledgeable IMHO. Guy just knew everything about every player...except Tulo. He simply told me that "Colorado Tulo was the best, with or without Coors." He said matter of factly to me that he's the best player the Jays ever had IF he returned to form. "We all want Colorado Tulo. If he can come back, forget it. No one knows where he is." Essentially he didn't seem optimistic of Tulo returning to form and it appears he was right. He called Lindor the most exciting and best young player in baseball. This event was in March. I also remember talking to Shapiro before the 2016 season and asking him how excited he was about Tulo being on the roster. I was a bit surprised by how unenthusiastic his response was. "I'll be happy if I can just find a way to keep him on the field...that's going to be a major problem." I think that sums up the difference between AA and Shapiro in that Shapiro is focused a lot more on player development, player values and maximizing returns...kind of like an agent like his father. AA focused more on asset hoarding and accumulation so that when he missed on big hacks like the Tulo trade he would have young guys prepped and ready to replace him. Would have been nice to have both these GMs in the fold, though I'll take a willing Cherington over a disgruntled AA.

Barfield was actually really cool because he was so connected to the game and excited about the game of baseball. He nearly knocked me over with his death stare when I dared to mention Bautista's arm in the conversation. And he had an amazing Nolan Ryan story . . . essentially, he was a pitcher you didn't want to get a hit against because it meant you were getting the Texas hat tip the next time you faced him, and the time after that...over and over.

Chuck I agree that Encarnacion is the better player and likely to produce more WAR going forward. I don't value WAR as a measure all the time. For 1B/DH types I prefer using offense only. What are Edwin's defensive numbers showing. Do they add WAR or remove WAR value? Morales was an option in between a Logan Morrison and EE. He has a lot of upside hitting in the Dome and AL East parks. So far, not hitting his maximum potential we are already getting better value from my POV. If you can only have one of Morales or Edwin then of course Edwin is better value, but the reality is that it's only 1 player out of 25, so I'll take that 50m of savings from signing Morales over Edwin and use it to get better WAR value elsewhere. I'd do that 8 days a weak, twice on Sunday. To summarize, imho, Morales will be better value TO THE JAYS overall over the duration of his contract than EE would have been, simply because of the price difference and money spent elsewhere. I'm not big on math or as big on WAR in this particular case...though I've presented a case where the team gets better value even using WAR measurements by using Morales over EE. That being said I will concede two points:

1) as stand alone value EE is worth more if he outperforms Morales over the course of his entire contract (Chucks point).

2) my point is mute if the saved money is not reinvested in the 25 man roster. This is what I will call the "Ugly One argument." It's a good point / counter point the makes it worthwhile to see what management does this off-season and next. One things for sure... if management does not reinvest and tries to field a competitive team on the cheap ala TB or Cleveland then I'm out and not invested as a fan. If, on the other hand, they use that model but spend to support ala Yankees/Dodgers/Red Sox then I'm in. I'm in so hard.

What are Edwin's defensive numbers showing.

Both FG and BR punish Encarnacion more for defense than they do Morales.

So far, not hitting his maximum potential

I get nervous hearing about the potential of a 34-year old.

so I'll take that 50m of savings from signing Morales over Edwin and use it to get better WAR value elsewhere

First, money not spent is not really savings. And second, why not take the 80M of "savings" from not signing Encarnacion and spend that elsewhere? Just because Morales, a lesser player, cost less, doesn't meant he's a more valuable acquisition, even if he led to 50M in "savings".

my point is mute

Watch out, Dewey is still around.

Don't like Tulo near the top of the lineup and Jbau has been close to .400 OBP since moving to the top.

Edwin's deal is for $60 million with a $20 million dollar team option, Morales is for $33 million - $27 million dollars is a much different reality than this $50 million figure, not to mention the potential value of that fourth year option.  So far, Fangraphs player value stat has Morales being worth  negative 2.6 million this year, while EE clocks in as worth $10.8 million.  It would be much easier to swallow the callous handling of a fan favourite if the FO had been correct in their assessments, but the Morales deal was a bust at the time it was signed and has continued to get worse.  I look at Tulo and see the player he was.  Morales is the player he has always been. 

Those are some interesting stories from that event Dalimon!  I always loved Barfield. 

The Jays would be in much more difficulty as far as moving forward with the EE deal than the one they have. When you give a take it or leave it offer, you have to be true to your word or no-one will believe you in future negotiations. I see no callousness at all in the way this was handled. A more than fair offer was made and declined.

You can talk about negative WAR all you want, but the reality is that the Jays would have several less wins without Morales as many of his hits have been timely.

Although there will never be proof that Gurrielwas tied to the Morales contract, the circumstantial evidence is strong.

In addition, with an overly expensive EE getting time at 1b, we may never have discovered Justin Smoak as an everyday player. In total, the outcome of all this is a positive not a negative.

The one thing I don't like about Morales as DH isthat it does not allow for a rotating DH which, in theory I would prefer. It is not an issue at present as the Jays do not have enough good hitters to justify it. Perhaps in 2 years with Morales gone they will.

Chris Smith recalled
Joe Smith off DL
Jeff Beliveau DFA
Aaron Sanchez to 10-day DL

the reality is that the Jays would have several less wins without Morales as many of his hits have been timely.

Here are his splits so far:
bases empty: 258/308/445
men on: 253/313/458
RISP: 205/287/361

So he's been slightly better with men on base than without men on base. That's good. But with men in scoring position (about 25% of his PAs), he has been quite poor.

Has he had some "timely" hits? Yeah. I'm sure everyone has. But he's made a ton of outs in high leverage situations. We can't just ignore those.

A take it or leave it offer early in the offseason to a fan favourite and long-standing leader of the team is the definition of callousness. 

You are predicting the team going forward with your first statement.  Negative WAR is predictive.  Timely hits are due to luck.  Yes, they did happen and they did win us some games.  Another way to put this fact is that Morales has been lucky to be less terrible. 

I invite anyone to present any evidence, circumstantial or not, of the Gurriel / Morales deal. 

EE was going to be the primary DH, like every year.  Suggesting that signing Morales was a key part of Smoak's breakout is a huge stretch IMO.

Morales would have to kill Buck Martinez on live TV for some of you guys to change your minds on the deal. 

Well all players fail more often than they succeed. It is all relative. The 3 Jays hitters with the most timely hits have been Smoak, Goins and Morales. I am just going by memory as I have seen every game. Is there any other player who has produced more in terms of game tying or game winning rbi? I am not suggesting that Morales has been much more than ordinary, but on a relative basis, he takes far too much criticism on this board......there are several others more deserving of criticism imo.

I actually think Morales seems like a nice guy, and he definitely has 'come up big' - I'm totally criticizing the FO in this case.  Morales is doing what he has always done, it's just that the game is rapidly shifting away from that type of player.  I found it an oddly worrisome move at the time and still do.  I criticize the Morales deal as it was a self-imposed problem that we need to address.  He blocks our easiest path to improving internally - without him, Jose DH's and we run young OFs like Smith and Fields out.

If I want to criticize a player .... man, they all look like they are trying, playing hard.  I like these guys.  I love the way the whole Osuna issue was dealt with. 

Even Zeke looks like he knows he's an idiot when he makes those bonehead plays.  Tulo is definitely the biggest underachiever though, moreso than Estrada, and I love the guy.  Estrada always felt like he was walking a fine line, even when good, but Tulo...  I genuinely thought we were getting a star when we got him. 

Overall though, our current front office is most responsible for our underachieving this year.

You've watched every game?  Impressive. 

We will have to agree to disagree on who is responsible for the teams under achievement or may it just be reality? It can be argued that last season was over achievement as starting pitchers stayed healthy beyond the norm.

I don't know how the FO could have done more in the off season other than sign players to longer term contracts which would have tied their hands even more going forward. IMO, the offer to EE was irresponsible as was the one to Fowler. I am glad they were not accepted.

What we need to do now (or in off season) is to trade JD and see what else we need depending upon the return. I believe in taking a step back in 2018. This does not mean a tear down or anything close to that. The Jays have a sufficient number of good prospects to make that unnecessary. Sometimes a team can be lucky with injuries and contend even if that is not the priority. The priority should be, again imo, to build for 2019 and beyond as 2018 does not look a good bet from where I sit.

I don't see how longterm contracts tie their hands ifnthey're going to be rebuilding during those years anyway.

Again Jerjepan, we will have to agree to disagree about callousness. EE had all year to negotiate and chose not to. A take it or leave it offer at that time was simply good business practice as the FO no doubt felt that the agent was dallying and perhaps they were being played. Do not be fooled by EE's false tears. The fault was at least 80% in his camp imo.

As for circumstantial evidence, the two players were signed and announced at the same time. Both are Cuban and have the same agent. In addition to that, previous reports were that Gurriel was likely to sign with KC. I don't think it is a stretch at all, even likely that the Jays were told they could have Gurriel if they matched his previous offer and gave a 3rd year to Morales.

Liriano starts Monday for Blue Jays. Plan is to start Valdez Tuesday, but that could change if he's needed out of the pen in coming days. per Arden Zwelling.

Bautista didn't sign to DH. They don't really have an outfield prospect who profiles as a right fielder with arm strength and power, except maybe Alford. Pearce can hit but his defense his poor. Carrera is a decent 4th outfielder but he blocks young guys with more upside.

In hindsight, that Saunders/Jay Bruce trade would have been great.

The real problem is second base. They should not carry 2 middle infielders with no options who play at  replacement level.  Ideally, they need to get rid of both Goins and Barney for a middle infielder who can hit. The guy who replaces Travis or Tulo when they go on the DL need to come from AA/AAA. I think they are doing the right things by drafting shortstops, centerfielders and catchers. I'd like to see some guys get promoted in September to play 2B and the outfield.

They also need more starting pitching depth.

They'll look at the offers for Donaldson, but they'll need very highly ranked prospects to pull the plug.
I don't expect that to happen. They have zero 3B depth.

With Bautista/Estrada/Liriano, coming off the books, they need to spend money this winter.
Both Red Sox and Yankees are squeezed by the luxury tax.

Sign a 3b for one or two years even if overpaying, Trade JD.

Donaldson is playing his way out of a trade and out of a lucrative extension.

Donaldson doesn't look right. At what point does he get rested on the DL or just shut down for the season (not until eliminated, I think, for the latter). While Jerjapan and I had fun watching Thursday's game, that's very much the rarity - this team is pretty unwatchable at the moment.

Yeah, it's hard to imagine obtaining anything of value for Donaldson after a season in which he'd be worth around 2 WAR.
Might as well hope he rebounds in a contract year he which he could be a huge trading chip or carry the team into another postseason run.

In the meanwhile they keep fading, but they don't have much to sell and they could get hot in August/September just to pointlessly finish around the .500 mark.

@scott: "In hindsight, that Saunders/Jay Bruce trade would have been great."

Sadly true, for all of Bruce's horrible defense.


"They also need more starting pitching depth."

Understatement. Stro is a solid front-line starter. Happ is a middle-front starter if he remains. Biagini is a solid #5.

So if a team needs 7-8 starters, we have 3 for 2018. We're not even sure Sanchez CAN be a starter; call him a #8. Maybe Valdez can be a #6. That makes 5/8, which could quickly become 4/8 depending on Sanchez.

We have a problem.


"Ideally, they need to get rid of both Goins and Barney for a middle infielder who can hit."

2018 replaces Barney with Leb, leaving 1 replacement-lvl middle infielder without options (Goins). Quality above that means a trade or deal for a solid SS type, in order to sub for Tulo and Travis when they get hurt. Doesn't make sense to give up a ton for that.

Unless their defense is terrible, middle infielders who can hit are regulars. If we do get a full everyday starter quality SS/2B, it means we have too either start sitting Travis or Tulo. or make Travis trade bait.

---

I tend to support the full rebuild idea, in part because all of the incremental options seem to run into significant roadblocks (1B/DH, and middle infield) and just have too damn many holes to fill.

i hate talking about morales as providing more "value" than edwin. for a team trying to win this year, KM clearly doesn't provide much if any value. the red sox don't sign guys for year 3 or 4...if they get anything in those years it's a bonus...heck, they're eating almost all of the sandoval contract. hanley was called a bust. their fans are mad at price...yet...it's not like that's going to stop them continuing to try to improve the team on the field at any cost.

if the jays had the cubs system last year, instead of signing heyward, and lester, i bet they would see those as "unreasonable" and instead would have (likely) not won the world series.

shapiro and atkins have allowed the team to get worse each year they've been here, and it's showed in the results. meanwhile, AA's new team continues to improve. they really are a model worth emulating, imo.

Do you blame Sanchez's blisters on the front office? Donaldson's drop from MVP to replacement level?
They did what they could to acquire starting depth. They Yankees, the Orioles, the Rangers, most team need more pitching.
The Dodgers opening day payroll was 242M, highest in baseball.

i don't blame the FO for health issuss but I did bristle in the offseason at them promoting their cutting edge health department at a time where they were cheaping out on the FA market.

You don't built a team with FA's. In most cases, they are bad contracts, best avoided. Don't see any way the FO could have been less cheap without being stupid. The organization is gradually getting better and that's where the improvement will eventually come from. Those who think that baseball will no longer be played after 2017 may have preferred the money to be spent at the major league level while those with a bit more vision realize that spending on development was and is a much better choice.

Many like to criticize but few offer any viable solution to improve the situation. Some like to say that building is not necessary, that the team was already built. Well yes, in a way with strong limitations. It was built for a short term window which has now passed and at the expense of sustained contention. How can the present FO be expected to magically produce pitching depth when it was all traded away? I think the FO is doing as well as it can considering what was inherited. This season would have gone better except for unpredictable injuries. Next year who knows? The building should continue, perhaps be accelerated. I doubt that we will see any long term contracts given out in free agency and we shouldn't.

I am not suggesting that everything the present FO is doing is right but they are pointed in the right direction. Personally, I would have traded JD last off season and said so. If anything, they listen to the AA apologists too much, no doubt at the behest of ownership to some extent. Last offseason, Edward was allowed to influence the FO into bringing back Bautista. I imagine that now he will be more likely to mind his own business and let the FO get on with the job.

Gerry wrote a nice piece a few days back as to what the future approach should be. I agree with what he said and think that is the way to go regardless what one thinks of past moves. That is all water under the bridge now.

Bautista in RF, Pearce in LF and Morales DHing again today. It isn't working. Bautista should have had a day off or at least a DH day weeks ago. Boring and ineffective.

I agree with this completely, and might add that it is not always easy to attract free agents to Toronto if other teams are after them. The Jays offered Dexter Fowler a large contract, but he took a comparable one with St.Louis instead. Should management have increased the offer to an outlandish amount with longer term, and was it "cheap" of the FO to not do so ? I say no to both. The offer to EE was sizable but he was looking for more. Were there really any other options that would have helped ? The reality is that the Jays need to develop some of their own young position players to mix in with the veterans, not overpay aging free agents who may or may not perform well.

When people say 'avoid FAs at all costs' I hear 'opportunity'.  Any absolute rule represents doctrinaire thinking and deserves to be re-considered. 

People continue to talk about the same FAs - how about if the org had re-signed EE instead of Jose or Morales, signed Josh Reddick, Greg Holland and Chris Iannetta ...

That's about $4 million more committed to 2017, and that team is just as well positioned moving forward as our current team, but in the hunt for the wildcard and likely sitting at .500. 

We've debated EE.  Many here wanted Reddick and Iannetta.  I wanted Holland- if we can't compete financially with NYY and BOS, we need to take risks and be creative.  AA knew this, but I have yet to see any creativity from the current FO. 

They whiffed on the offseason, whiffed on their stated goals, failed to upgrade 2B and LF when we were still in the wildcard chase - longterm, I feel headed in the right path.  Short term, we appear overly cautious and indecisive.  Shapiro saying that the fans 'demand' that we don't sell is BS.  The fans 'demanded' that we resign EE and field a championship calibre team, and that demand was easily ignored.  This is an uninspiring club with uninspiring leadership.  We are likely headed in a solid direction, but it sucks to go from an exciting and creative leader to a cautious, corporate one.  It's not as if the cautious approach is demonstrably better than the aggressive one at this point. 

It may be that the front office has been trying too hard to sustain revenue by placating fans instead of building a better team -- for example, by chasing a lesser facsimile of EE (in Morales) instead of being more creative/frugal with the DH spot, settling for home run production instead of focusing on overall two-way value, sticking too long with fan favourites for too long instead of selling high, etc. In sum, being too cautious and conventional. I suppose it's understandable, given how financially successful the team has been in recent seasons, and how difficult it is to sustain a championship-calibre team.

Boring and ineffective, absolutely. Gibbons is nothing if not stubborn. I suspect it engenders loyalty in his veterans but it can be so frustrating to watch sometimes.

would you guys prefer a manager that sticks with "contact and speed and bunting" at the top of the order?

I would prefer a manager who at least sat Morales a few times a month so that Bautista could DH. Morales is a terrible cleanup hitter at this point in his career, by the way. The 4 slot is still the most important slot in the order.

Bautista had 4 days off at the All-Star break. That wasn't so long ago. Donaldson was hot before that break and quickly went cold again. Maybe Bautista feels he needs more time on rather than more time off. Most players don't hit better when they DH and Bautista doesn't look hurt. 

 Barney is 1 for 16 in the last 7 games. Martin is 2 for 22. Tulo was starting to heat up before pulling his groin.

So, the hot hitters are Smoak, Carrera (in limited at-bats) and Peace. Goins and Morales have been so-so. Everybody else is scuffling.

On top of everything else, Carrera has arguably been better offensively than any of Pearce, Bautista or Morales once baserunning is taken into account. When defence is considered today's lineup makes even less sense. I'm not arguing that Pearce, in particular, isn't a better offensive choice. But 100 games in I think we can declare the 4 1B/DH approach a total failure. Try something different.

Only Carrera can do "contact and speed and bunting" on this team and not really that well.

jerjapan, you keep saying that people are arguing to "avoid FAs at all costs" or to "never trade prospects", and that's never been true, at least not from people here. There is a time to sign free agents, just as there is a time to trade prospects. No one has ever said to never do either of those things. The Jays simply aren't in a position to do those things right now, and considering how the season has turned out, that should be more obvious now than ever before. No free agent was going to turn this team around, at least not in 2017. If Donaldson is a 1 WAR player, this team has no shot.

Also, when it comes to free agency, it's very easy to say "they could have signed player X instead of player Y", but it takes two to tango, and we don't know what premium the Jays would have had to pay to sign someone like Reddick. If he took less money to play with Houston, it doesn't mean he would have taken the same deal in Toronto.

Again, people are misdirecting their frustration. Sure there were missteps by the FO (Morales in particular) but that's not the difference between a playoff team and a team that's 10 games under .500. People on this site were calling this two years ago. It would have been very hard to keep success going into 2017, and we are seeing it now. Factor in all the injuries and underachievement, and this team was not going to do much this season. If Edwin and Price were on this team instead of the players signed to replace them, then it would just be a more expensive last place team.

Add in that Kluber destroys RH hitters and Happ is a flyball pitcher and today's' lineup is just inexplicable really.

It is possible that Pearce is presently being showcased as the deadline approaches.

SK, I'm certainly not trying to present a straw man here.  I think it's legit to say that the general consensus with a certain type of poster - the AA's path was inevitably going to lead to a rebuild camp - would argue things like:

"the vast vast vast majority of big long-term contracts turn out horribly"

"difference making free agents won't come to Toronto without a severe overpay"

I'm not picking on anyone, those are fair points, I simply disagree.  I invite alternative examples - where are the 'rebuild' posters arguing FOR spending on big ticket FAs?  On trading prospects?   What moves would you have done that demonstrate that I am no overstating things with "never trade prospects" or "Avoid {big ticket} FAs at all costs"? 

You talk about hindsight when I mention specific value FAs and yet the pro-rebuild crowd typically doesn't acknowledge good FA signings, or good veteran for prospect deals - they just use hindsight to mention the Verlander or Price deals, the Dickey trade, etc. (as if the value of those deals is even already clear and fixed). 

I presented an offseason scenario that I would have preferred at the time, and which clearly with hindsight would have been superior. 

FWIW, Donaldson as a 1 WAR player IS a straw man.  I know you predicted a rough year in 2017, but we both also know you can't write off an organizational strategy based on a sample size of one.  We had a great run last year.  We may have a great run next year.  The Giants have been winning for years with the trade for / sign veterans approach.  I continue to think that the current FO is lacking in vision - whatever that vision is.  We are stuck in limbo and I postulate that the current FO is limited by some of the thinking that is presented as orthodoxy round here. 

"difference making free agents won't come to Toronto without a severe overpay"

AA complained a few years ago that certain FA's that signed for $X wanted $X-plus to sign here. Don't know how "severe" the plus was, negotiations are rarely made public, but when our GM says it out loud, one has to assume there is validity.

Jays acquire Rob Refsnyder from the Yanks for Ryan McBroom.

'
People continue to talk about the same FAs - how about if the org had re-signed EE instead of Jose or Morales, signed Josh Reddick, Greg Holland and Chris Iannetta ...'

So all they had to do is sign a perfect free agent class of players who may or may not have even wanted to sign with them or take the deals they took elsewhere and they would have been more competitive? Why don't more teams try to figure this out? I mean Gregg Holland, why take a possible closer job to rebuild your career when you can take a setup job for the same money in Toronto?

What's so ridiculous is that it doesn't even matter. Even with realistically good free agent signings, this Jays team is in bad shape. They wouldn't be competing this year and the top of their system would still be bare. The Morales signing was not good in the least and made no sense to many of us even at the time but trying to blame the current situation on the current management is ludicrous. There was a long term issue with this team that has been obvious for a while. This decline or a decline like it was inevitable given the makeup of the team and the system. AA gave us an amazing ride in 2015, one of the best seasons ever as a Jays fan but there was a cost for the way he ran the team and this is the cost.

I assume that Refsnyder is to be Barney's replacement next year as the FO likely does not like any of the present AAA options. I never thought McBroom was much of a prospect. It seems like a wash but if Ref plays for the Jays next year it makes some sense.

Exactly Glevin. Management rode the core they inherited till we reached this point. They're going to have to pivot now and start building the new core.

Glevin, please tone it down ... I don't call your ideas 'ridiculous'.

I believe my point is fair and obvious.  I didn't start the cherry picking with my proposed offseason - an offseason that many advocated for - my point was to cherry pick the way you and others have - you only mention a few specific FA contracts that demonstrate your point.  My logic is the same as yours.   I am aware that a FA has to chose the team he signs with - many in the camp against signing big ticket FAs argue that the player will and should always go with the most money.  By this logic, had we offered slightly more to Reddick and Holland, we get the deals made.  I actually wanted Holland as a closer so that Osuna could be a relief ace.  Iannetta cost the same as Salty, plus a guaranteed deal.  very doable, and cognizant of the value of D.  EE wanted to return.    It doesn't require much intellectual flexibility to find the plausability in what I'm saying. 

If you read my post, my 'dream offseason' would have yielded a .500 level team which has a shot at the wildcard and would have more marketable assets going forward.  Nobody is denying that dealing a bunch of prospects has a long-term cost.  But we are not in some insurmountable hole.  The current FO is most responsible for our current plight, and saying that is not 'ludicrous'.  I continue to think that our farm team will start graduating legit talent as early as next year. 

I'm not a naive apologist for AA, and my posts demonstrate that.  I only object to the certainty with which people make certain points.  We could compete with the current core next year.  Teams can trade prospects for vets and sign big ticket FA contracts and still succeed.  One bad season here in Toronto is far from enough data to prove any 'dogma' about organization building, and I continue to think that dogmatic thinking is the biggest problem with the current FO.  Shouldn't we all seek to challenge dogma? 

jer, on the contrary, I was predicting a Wild Card team in 2017 based on projections (FG had the Jays as the 1st WC team prior to the season). I also said that if things go south, then the Jays should pivot ASAP because once this core declines there is no turning back. Obviously the decline that the FO was trying to work around happened a lot sooner than expected, and making matters worse, the vets that we all thought would have at least some trade value pretty much have none at the moment.

The point is, free agency wasn't going to make this season any better. The main reason this season went south is because Donaldson currently has a 1-ish WAR. The Jays can't compete with this current group unless he's an MVP candidate. Combine that with continued decline of Tulo/Jose, bad defense, bad SP, and a whole bunch of other injuries with no depth to cover for them, and here we are.

Glevin said it best: AA built a great team in 2015. It was a fun ride and brought popularity back to Toronto baseball. Unforutntately, that came with a price, and that price was a small window of success. This FO has to work around trying to maintain that fan base, placating an ownership group that knows nothing about baseball, and restocking a system that desperately needs to in order to keep up with competition. It's not an easy fix.

Resnyder hit well at AAA but only had success in his first call up back in 2015.
Not a good defender like Barney, but still better than Pearce and he can play 2B.
He still have one option for next year, so it's possible Gurriel and Refsnyder battle for the utility position.

Meanwhile McBroom was not impressive as a 25 year old in AA.

EE wanted to return on the condition that the Jays overbid every other teams.
They did and he still signed somewhere else because he wanted more time for other teams to match the Jays offer.

It's pretty clear that the market for 1B/DH was weak and 4/80 was already an overreach to please the fans.
The front office, reasonably, didn't want to go over that.

In hindsight, EE was a poor fit for the Jays, so things have worked out well.

Josh Reddick, Greg Holland and Chris Ianetta were very overpaid in $$$ and term. I'm glad the Jays stayed away.

Anyone can complain about the offseason because it's all hindsight and sour grapes. No one alive could have expected what actually happened to happen.

Please grump about something new, it's getting boring.

So Scottt, you would rather have the Morales contract than the EE contract?  

Sad fact:

2017 fWAR
Troy Tulowitzki 0.3
Jose Reyes 0.3

I would be fine with Holliday or Moreland on their current contracts over either EE or Morales on theirs.

Blue Jays have picked up Nick Tepesh for cash. I assume he is headed to Buffalo. I don't know if this, and Refsnyder, are support for Buffalo whose roster has been depleted, or coverage for when Goins/Barney/Joe Smith get traded.

So going into this year you could plug the Jays lineup in three groups.

1. Entrenched regulars. These guys are the core of the team assembled and no effort was spent on bringing in replacements for them. This list includes Donaldson, Pillar, Travis, Martin and Tulo.

2. Resigned internal players who we had more doubts on their performance. This is Bautista and Smoak.

3. Signed FAs. This is just Pearce and Morales.

So group 2 has worked out mostly pretty well. I think Jose actually has been better defensively this year and has done passably in the leadoff spot. Smoak obviously is our best player by far.

Group 3 hasn't been that good. Pearce has been fine but injured a lot and Morales has been just a league average hitter when he needs to be better to make up for his running. Now could a better pair of players have been brought in here? Certainly, but it would never compensate for the crappiness that group 1 has produced. Donaldson will be down about 5 WAR from last year and Tulo and Pillar about 2-3. The jays to compete this year made the bet in the offseason that the core of players from group 1 would be good. Sad to say they have not and that more than anything has sunk this season. (Close second is Sanchezs train wreck of a season)

Blue Jays this season have only 1 of the top 100 position players per fWAR.

Refsynder is a decent gamble to take. Could always hit in the minors but never had a true position. Miscast as a 2B. If the Jays end up trading Bautista and/or Pearce in the next week, then stick Ref in one of the corner OF spots for the rest of the season and see if his bat can translate to the big leagues. Worst case it fails, but doesn't hurt to see if something is there with him.

Kasi,
Martin has been fine. Not great, but fine (10th in WAR for catchers over 200 PA this season, but 4th in the AL. He's also 4th in catcher WAR since 2015 (1st in the AL, by over a full win). All those rankings are from Fangraphs. I think you can leave him out of your under-performing group ones. The narrative of Martin as a bad signing needs to end. He may not have performed how we expected or hoped, but he's been worth it.

He's yes the only one of that group even close to regular performance and if all of that group was at that level we'd probably be okay and there would be more grounds for blaming Morales for all the teams woes. However my comment wasn't about it being a bad signing at all, I'd be happy with more signings from FA rather than draft pick trades. My point was we expected that group of five to be good. They have not been.

I think the 2018 Blue Jays is a problem at which the team has to throw money. Not because I am dogmatically opposed to rebuilding, but because of the state of the roster at the big club and in the high minors.

Obviously, the team should sell its expiring contracts for whatever it can get. But for nearly any player signed beyond 2017, the team would be selling very low and that has two problems -- recouping minimal value, and in most cases leaving the team with a sub-replacement non-prospect playing the position. MLB playing time is too valuable for a franchise to waste. Dumping Donaldson at his lowest value isn't a shrewd realignment of the team's competitive window -- it's just poor asset management.

I'm not going to say that years of a hugely imbalanced focus on pitching with the most valuable draft picks was a failure, because it yielded some good pitchers and some valuable trade chips. But the team is bereft of position players in the high minors.

If you find a team fully convinced that Smoak has achieved sustainable stardom, then you explore that trade. I am not confident that such a team is out there. There is no need for the team to make trades where they dump salary for the sake of doing so. If anything, the Jays are flush enough that the efficiency to exploit might be another team's uncomfortable salary commitments (think Marlins trade 2.0).

If there was ever an offseason to look to Japan, Korea or Cuba, it's this upcoming one. I would also not be spooked by cycle-of-contention concerns when playing the free agency market. If you sign a quality player with a rare skill, as opposed to a dumpster-diving bargain, there is trade value even if the player doesn't vault the team into contention. I sure wish the Jays hadn't dropped out of the Andrew Miller bidding when the Yankees signed him.

I think there is little to no merit to the belief that the Jays are at a unique disadvantage with free agents. I think it's viewed as a good, or at least an average, place to play. If the published reports have been accurate over the years, nearly every free agent unsuccessfully pursued by the Jays has signed with a team who beat the Jays' offer. Fowler was not a "similar contract" -- the Jays offered $64M and he signed for $82.5.

If the off-season began today, the Blue Jays would have the following players under control for 2018 (all figures rounded to 500K, and arbitration estimates are from me and with a wide error bar):

C- Martin (20M); Maile (0.5M)
1B/DH- Smoak (4M), Pearce (6M), Morales (11M)
2B- Travis (arb 1- 2M)
SS- Tulo (20M)
3B- Donaldson (arb 4- 20M)
OF- Pillar (arb 1- 2M), Carrera (arb 2- 2M), Pompey (0.5M), Ceciliani (0.5M)

SP- Happ (13M), Sanchez (arb 1-2M), Stroman (arb 2-9M)
RP- Osuna (arb 1-2.5M), Tepera (0.5M), Barnes (0.5M), Biagini (0.5M, Leone (0.5M), Loup (arb 3- 1.5M)

It's not that bad.  The two pieces that might generate a significant return are Smoak and Happ.  We'll see what happens at the deadline, and then come back to it. 

-65 run differential for july. wow.

this refsnyder move - or something similar - had to be done a month or two ago.

Agreed with Mike D about Donaldson. If the Jays are not getting maximum value for him this week or in the off-season, then hold on to him and either see if the team can compete in 2018 or more likely sell him at this time next year. I don't think the team is at a point where they should dump assets at less than peak value just to start a rebuilding phase. The deal still has to make sense. Unfortunately the Jays are at a point where the big league team is bad and the veterans do not have any value for an assortment of reasons. They should get what they can for the impending free agents but be a bit more picky with the players who have more control. If it makes more sense to keep them in 2018 and see how the season goes, then so be it. The Jays have the maximize every asset they can.

this refsnyder move - or something similar - had to be done a month or two ago.

I certainly was disappointed that the obvious needs at second base and in the outfield, after the Travis and Pompey injuries, were not addressed.  Sometimes there are no options, but that is not usually the case. 

I mean they had to at least try something. anything. But it's probably once again this org's optimistic valuation of Goins that was the culprit.

Refsynder is a bad defensive infielder. I'd be surprised if they view him as a 2B, even in a utility role. They shouldn't, at least.

Yeah I'm under no illusions that refsnyder is actually good. And he probably can't handle 2B. But they had to try something. Even just to maybe catch lightning in a bottle.

Even as a potential corner outfielder, Refsnyder has use.  The club basically threw up its hands after the injuries to Pompey, Alford, and Ceciliani.  They needed to do something both at second base and in the outfield.  I am not saying that Refsnyder is a great answer, but at least it's an effort to re-align resources from the 1B/DH axis in the correct way. 

Ken Rosenthal reports that 5-7 teams have called Jays about Josh Donaldson

That isn't exactly newsworthy.  Of course, teams are interested in acquiring Donaldson at the right price.  Are they talking about players like Alex Bregman or Rafael Devers? If so, then you have a story.

Dombrowski is notorious for trading prospects. If Donaldson for Devers is a possibility, then I would hope the Jays would be all over it, but I don't think the Red Sox would pull the trigger on that. Other than Boston, what other contender needs a 3B right now + would be willing to give up top prospects + could afford his $20+ million salary in 2018? The Red Sox fit every one of those categories, but no other team jumps out.

The Cardinals might consider it with next season in mind. That said, I do think an off season trade is more likely. Cubs have been mentioned as Bryant can play OF. Certainly, would be listening though.

I don't see 5 teams that need a 3B.

Also, anyone willing to give top prospects for Donaldson would also check Manny Machado.

Boston will just start Devers. He has 4 errors in 8 games at AAA. 

Donaldson would be such an enormous get for the red sox.

He's exactly the big bopper in the middle of the order that they lack. Would make them clearcut favorites this year and next, and they'd have no trouble extending him.

Do any Bauxites believe ... or to put it another way a team can get the 2nd WC with a mediocre/decent rotation.

Take the 2010 Jays, winners of 85 games. At the beginning of the year the team's rotation was young and inexperienced. Romero was a #1, Morrow had a high pedigree but not enough experience/success as a SP, Marcum was coming off TJ I believe, Cecil did not make the team out of ST. Both Litsch and Zep were injured. Definitely an uninspiring rotation.

I believe Casey Fossum? was our #5, out of ST. An attempt which failed at asset acquisition. He had no options so he got the chance to fail at the expense of Cecil who won the job in ST.

What I am getting at is that every year there are surprises in baseball.

So it does not matter to me how the FO plans for 2018. I will have hope until it is gone.

The biggest problem this was that players didn't perform as well as they were expected to.

If Sanchez/Estrada/Liriano all pitched closer to expectations then the Jays would be in the playoff race.

Next season if Sachez/Stroman can be dominant at the top of the rotation they will probably contend for a playoff spot.

The biggest problem this **year** was that players didn't perform as well as they were expected to.

Agreed pubster. No doubt about it. But this year type of issues can happen again some time over the next 5 years or so. Similarly last years positive issues can also happen. I expect this sort of thing.

But Smoak's production was unexpected. Also A Hill and A Lind's career path was unexpected. Add R Romero.

Aaron Sanchez joins a long line of quality Starters with career blister problems. I'd think a very long time before I would expect him to be healthy all next year. Depending on the return, I might trade him.

It would be cool today if the Blue Jays rallied late off Oakland's Chris Smith to make a winner of their own Chris Smith.  And if Joe Smith got the save, that would be the icing on the cake. 

Rays have released Rickie Weeks - any interest?

Surprisingly, seems like he's been more an OF/1B/DH type recently - hasn't played 2B since 2014. I don't keep up on every player, unlike some here, so that's a little surprising to me..

But, he had an OPS+ of 100 in the outfield last year and apparently can hit LHP - would he be a possible stopgap for us if we trade Pearce? And/or emergency 2B fill-in?

Bautista is the DH and leads off, Carrera is in right-field and Morales is on the bench today.  That's good.

Resnyder hit well at AAA but only had success in his first call up back in 2015. Not a good defender like Barney, but still better than Pearce and he can play 2B. He still have one option for next year, so it's possible Gurriel and Refsnyder battle for the utility position. Rays have released Rickie Weeks - any interest?

BbRef showed aged 30 SS/2B/3B Ivan De Jesus and OF Nick Buss are hitting well in the PCL. Any interest?

Weeks was on a rehab assignment. We already got Refsnyder to play 2B fill-in, no?