Would be nice to see Berti get a hit.

The horror. The horror.

Sun 3:10 - Estrada (7-14, 5364) vs TBA

I believe TBA is accurate. It stands for Tampa Bay All.

Estrada (7-14, 5364)

Like I've said, not a morning person.

There's only one F to look forward to (I do hand them out very reluctantly.)

So, does a call up for a single game make a player a permanent member of the players association, with voting right?

I'm waiting with bated breath to find out whether Biagini or Solarte gets the D-!

It's hard to argue that Smoak and (departed) Happ have been the best players.
It's still a down year for Smoak, borderline All-Star. Hard to go higher than B+ there.

Would be nice to see Berti get a hit.

Here you go.

John Gibbons gets an A as a sentimental farewell, and also with the notion that you can't make chicken salad out of chicken poop ?

I'm waiting with bated breath to find out whether Biagini or Solarte gets the D-!

Neither!

The actual grades are still very tentative - it's the snarky comments that's the biggest part of the job - but I just looked them over and of the 41 players no less than 10 received a B- or higher. And I thought - geez, that seems way too generous. And then I realized four of those guys were sent packing quite long ago, and another was a September callup.

But still... probably too generous in some cases. I am a soft-hearted creature...

Seems there may be a Vladdy effect among the Jays faithful STH's. For the first time in awhile I'm not able to relocate to better seats this year... Can't think of any other explanation.

jerjapan posted, "Great news about Berti, I love seeing the loyal org soldiers get the call they've worked so hard for. He will have to come off the 40 man in the offseason but he is not an asset to worry about from an org perspective. I hope he enjoys his time in the bigs and the associated health care."(Wednesday, September 26 2018 @ 03:48 PM EDT)
How about J-Leb? Does the Jays really need Urena who have already played before September. J-Leb could have been a callup.

"I'm waiting with bated breath to find out whether Biagini or Solarte gets the D-!"

Already did a write-up of Solarte in the Astros thread. Tying for the 5th worst negative fWAR in the past 20 Jays seasons has to be worth a D-, no?

So now I checked Biagini. -0.5 fWAR. Only 4 of 205 pitchers with 70 IP this season have been worse, under 2%.

But really bad pitchers usually aren't gifted 70 IP. Went down to 30 IP. Now there's 461 pitchers, with 18 worse than -0.5 WAR, just under 4%. Matt Koch of the DBacks with 86.2 IP is the only one of those 18 with more than 76 IP.

Oh look! 2 members of that ugly 18 - Deck McGuire, -0.7 WAR in 37 IP and Drew Hutchison, -0.6 in 42.2 IP.

As a side note, I'm sure Dewey is pleased Mike doesn't bait his breath as some are wont to do.

Quite right, hypo.  Mike has almost entirely recovered from his “anyways” slip.
Almost, I say, as he did resort to a concluding “anyway” the other day. (I noticed.)  Still, “bated” is appreciated.

This past off season I learned a lot about how a team can win or lose a season. Bauxite Rabbit and a few others taught me. We lost both 2017 and 18. Injuries, career years and luck play a significant role. But they are unpredictable.


Solarte has earned criticism and Grichuk has earned praise. But comparing April, Solarte was very valuable and Grichuk was dragging the team down. Solarte's April grade would be quite high and Grichuk's low. We had a great April. Team effort.


Since we are constructing a team for 2019 and beyond we are hoping for many team characteristics. NYY and Boston have lineups with few if any soft spots offensively. We too can produce a strong offensive lineup with no holes.


Base running and defense is another part of the team makeup. I have not mentioned it.

Mike doesn't bait his breath as some are wont to do.

Some folks bait their breath with Listerine, but I prefer Halls myself.

I am going to call C Sale an Ace because he is very good. Assume Boston extends his contract. If/when we meet in the playoffs I want the best defensive team on the field, so catcher and LF would probably be affected. I fantasize a low scoring game where we win by a defensive miscue. Bad throw maybe.

The one thing I've been waiting for, in vain thus far, is our elegy. Dan ZIPS at FG has provided elegies for all 8 teams below us in the standings. Even the LA Angels have received their elegy. Our logo became a Norwegian Blue months ago, yet no elegy. We deserve our elegy!

Bo Bichette no longer part of the Jays AFL contingent. Jays taking a conservative approach to elbow and knee soreness he experienced during the playoffs. Espinal taking his place.

No holes? Let's start with the worse 90 win team in the history of they New York franchise.

1B. Bird has failed again and is running out of time. Luke Voit has been great but is he the future?
LF Brett Gardner has ran out of time. McCutchen is on a roll but will he return or is Clint Frazier a sure thing?
C. Sanchez is hitting .182 for the year. That's worse than Martin.
3B Andujar can hit but his defense is really bad. Diaz is probably a better 3B over a full season.
Not sure that Judge will age well, Gregorius will be 20 next year.

You forgot to add that Sanchez is probably the worst defensive catcher in MLB.

Great NYY have holes.

By what metric?

Yankees was 13-6 (.684) in games verses Toronto. That's 98-61 (.616) overall, but 85-55 (.607) with everyone else.

Gee, only .607 vs. non-Toronto teams.

2nd place in WC, home game in Oakland instead.

So how you we/you see the playoffs advancing?

For me I hope WC loser NYY. Boston not making it to the WS.

Cleveland VS Milwaukee.

I guess you meant that Gregorius will be 30 next year, Scott. Actually, in looking it up, he will be 29 and I didn't know he was from the Netherlands.

Island Boy, Gregorius is a fellow Island Boy, having moved to Curacao as a youngster. He is famously Sir Didi having received a knighthood after winning the baseball World Cup.

I didn't look that far,Chuck! Curacao looks beautiful, more tropical than my Island. Didi has an interesting life story.

Spunky win by the Jays last night. The Jays have played OK ball in September, despite a pretty tough schedule. Started 4-8 after getting swept by the Red Sox. But 8-6 since, despite only playing one team with a losing record.

Doing this with a complete absence of high end talent. FG has 129 position players with 2 WAR, not one being a Jay. Both FG and BRef have the 4 best current Jays as some combo of Grichuk, Pillar, Smoak and Borucki, with FG still having Happ as the only Jay with 2 WAR.

They have managed to play reasonably well, while dragging the boat anchor Solarte through the water all the while. I have no clue why Solarte has seen the field as much as he has this month. On a positive note, I was impressed with the quality of McGuire’s AB’s last night. He might be the most pleasant surprise of the month for me (in the non Tellez category).

"I have no clue why Solarte has seen the field as much as he has this month."

Maybe Gibby still thinks he can still catch Izturis and Bush. Broke the tie with Millar yesterday, now has Dave Berg in his sights.

Martin will manage the team tomorrow not Gibbons. What does this mean? Could it be that Martin will be leaving the Jays as well?

On the coaching front, Gibby's coaches have been given permission to speak with other teams.

And today will be Gibby's final game managing the Jays. Sundays manager will be...Russ Martin.

I’ve never been a huge fan of Gibbons, but I agree that he has been classy throughout and especially classy in the last few weeks. The world can use more grace. I also think Gibbons has had a pretty good year this year.

26 man roster if Martin manages?

If martin manages next year.

There is no chance that Martin will be managing next year.

Ok. He would be included in the 25 man active roster? This would reduce available man power.

I expect Martin to be traded. If not, he will be on the 25 man roster.

So on Sunday Martin becomes the first player-manager since Pete Rose eh?  Great!

Nonsense, Russell Martin would make a good Manager for the Jays. Renegotiate his contract to pay him $4.0 Million for the next 5 years. He then retires. Hire him as Manager - $2.0 to start, two years with unlimited options.

Martin, with no experience whatsoever, as the next manager.

That is absolutely outrageous and would never happen. Surely, no-one really sees that as a possibility?

Joe Torre used to do this every year - he'd turn over the team to one of his veterans for the final game. It's just for fun. No one should take it seriously or read anything into it whatsoever.

What Magpie said. A case of a classy manager giving the spotlight to a classy vet.

Sorry for causing a debate. I was just theorizing. A position player is made the manager/player. But it is during the season. So is he the 25th or 26th player? If I am not being clear... can he be part of a 25+1 playing roster. That is an advantage somehow.

A player manager still counts as one of the 25 roster spots.

I'll save the rest of this until after Magpie posts his grades.

The I shall do my best not to dawdle!

Won't take long. It's basically finished. Just waiting for the season to end so I'll have actual numbers for Grichuk's platoon splits and stuff like that.

the club needed 4 of their players who could be very good (Donaldson, Tulo, Travis, Stroman and Sanchez), to be both very good and healthy.

I was thinking along those lines when I was writing about Atkins - that he must have been aware of the possibility that all those dominoes could fall that way, in which case the season would have turned out very differently. But while it was a possibility, it wasn't something he believed likely enough to actually invest in.

The I shall do my best not to dawdle!

Good stuff. Your write ups are much more interesting than the reporters’.

What are the odds that Berti is coaching in someone's system in a few years, and managing somewhere after that? I figure anyone who sticks it out in the minors for eight years without getting a sniff (or having reasonable grounds to even expect a sniff) of the majors has got to be a Baseball Lifer.

Dodgers win, so St.Louis is toast. The Dodgers are a half-game behind Colorado, who play later tonight. If they end up tied atop the NL West, they play a sudden-death game at Dodger Stadium on Monday. Loser goes home, winner goes to Milwaukee for another sudden-death game on Tuesday.

In situations like this, rooting for Chaos is encouraged!

Hang on, Milwaukee might win the Central? We might need two play-offs on Monday? Better and better!

That's got to be it for Borucki, no? The 174 IP is a new career high by quite a bit. And he's visibly tiring out there.

That's got to be it for Borucki, no?

But what do I know?

It always feels like Borucki is being pushed too hard, but it might be because he goes deep into games on reasonable pitch counts. Given his injury history I would have been more cautious with his innings this year than Gibbons has been (two 8 IP performances were unnecessary given the scores of those games, for example). Stroman threw over 100 pitches only 11 times in 2017, while Borucki is at 7 times in 2018 in half the innings/starts. Thankfully no one is throwing 120 pitches or anything absurd, but it does seem like Gibbons keeps Borucki in a lot longer than he does others. Or it feels that way.

Obviously, I have the right to second-guess Gibby tonight (I said Borucki was tired in the sixth inning.)

But what the heck. Borucki is the staff ace, after all.

Magpie, if any divisions are tied in the NL, they will play tiebreaker games. Winners advance to the first round of the playoffs, losers would advance to the wild-card game. Nobody would be eliminated based on any additional games. (i.e. Whoever loses the West and Central divisions will just end up being the two wild-card teams anyway.)

Yep. See, I got confused! That's the problem with cheering for Chaos.

That's the problem with cheering for Chaos.

You're nowhere near as bad as I am, cheering for those putrid Giants so we can draft 10th rather than 11th. It's about the least exciting thing a person can root for.

Ryan Borucki is presently a #1B or a #2 Starter, a lock for the 2019 Rotation. He's about the only sure thing the Jays have in their Rotation. Aaron Sanchez has a 50-50 chance of being a Starter and a 50-50 chance of being a late inning Reliever. Two Seasons is no longer small sample size. He's either a #1B Starter or a Closer/Setup Reliever.

Marcus Stroman is no longer a Frontline Starter, maybe a #2B or a top #3. He questions himself every pitch, usually needlessly which limits his effectiveness. People also question his durability going forward.

At this point, no one knows what to expect with Sanchez and Stroman. Therefore the Jays need a Starter, possibly two. They need to acquire a Starter (by Trade or Free Agency) to make 30 Starts and pitch 180-200 innings or more. If the Jays trust either Sean Reid-Foley or Thomas Pannone to be a success next year they could get by with just one Starter. Otherwise they need to acquire another Starter (by Trade or Free Agency) to make 30 Starts and pitch 180-200 innings or more.

For those of you interested in the Osuna case, there is a very interesting article on Fangraphs looking at various aspects of such investigations, including the nature of evidence in such cases, the weight assigned to testimonials, the fact that mlb makes evaluations/suspensions, etc. based on what is most likely true, not based on what is proven. The article stems from the recent accusations levied against the Cubs' Addison Russell. As a side note, recent Jay Mat Latos is now facing some abuse allegations.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/on-addison-russell-and-what-constitutes-evidence/

Dodgers win, so St.Louis is toast. The Dodgers are a half-game behind Colorado, who play later tonight. If they end up tied atop the NL West, they play a sudden-death game at Dodger Stadium on Monday. Loser goes home, winner goes to Milwaukee for another sudden-death game on Tuesday.

Related to that Dodgers win is that they're spanking the Giants, who have lost 8 of 9 now and are tied with the Jays at 73-88. If I'm not mistaken, SF also holds the tiebreaker, having had a worse record the previous season.

Not that 9th vs. 10th in the minor league draft is a major different (unless the Jays and Giants both want the same prospect), but something to watch for on the last day of the season.

"Not that 9th vs. 10th in the minor league draft"

It's actually 10th vs 11th, since the Braves own #9 by not signing their #8 this year.

The Orioles are awful. They were awful all season, and after the sell-off they are almost entirely a team of AAA players and untradeable duds. They were swept by the Astros yesterday, dropping their September record to 6-18.

Amazingly, there are 2 teams that have been even worse this month. The Phillies, who were 2 games out of the NL East lead entering September, absolutely collapsed with a 6-20 month.

And then there's the Giants, 68-68 at the end of August. They've gone an abysmal 5-19 since, a .208 pace that over an entire season would be a 34-128 team.

so we can draft 10th rather than 11th

OK, but wouldn't you really rather get the 23rd pick? Where the MVPs live?

I'd really like to get the pick the WS winner gets each year.

for the first 20 picks (non-playoff) you go by closest to the playoffs to furthest so right to the end you have that incentive to win.

Or you could even just make those 20 picks random. Not even "weighted random" like in the NBA and NHL, but entirely random.

Well said Mike. I think that’s a fair summary of Gibbons and I agree 2018 has been a good year for him. I enjoy watching change up artists as a personal foible so Estrada has been a joy to watch. He’s had a rough 2017 and 2018 but his OF defence, particularly in 2017, made it look worse than it was.

Russ Martin and multi-positional play one of the topics in today's Sunday Notes.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-josh-james-is-more-than-a-fringe-five-favorite/

Notes also has a link to this on Danny Jansen at Sporting News

http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/mlb/news/danny-jansen-is-the-blue-jays-catcher-of-the-future-mlb/1xkjsxjr8dzlh1e0i69t4xp6um

You heard it here first...Aaron Sanchez to the LA Dodgers for Cory Seager if Manny Machado resigns.

If Seager were on the market, I would think the asking price would be a great deal more than Aaron Sanchez.

Thanks finch.

Does anyone have details about out Int'l signings this year?

I know about O Martinez and his $3.5 mil signing bonus. That eats up about 60% of our bonus pool. So not much else would be signed.


Thanks.

Not sure how much trade value Sanchez has right now but very sure it is not even remotely close to Seager’s.

Got more on bonuses but here's my list of signees

Toronto Blue Jays
RHP (10)
Name B/T Ht Wt M/D/YR
Juanfer Castro -/R 6-1 178 7/22/01 DR $
Andres Garcia R/R 5-10 165 7/30/02 DR $
Jose Garcia -/R 6-5 207 5/03/00 DR $
Jorman Gonzalez -/R 6-3 180 10/20/01 VZ $
Pedro Guzman R/R 5-10 160 12/18/99 DR $
Yunior Lara -/R 6-1 150 1/28/01 DR $
Juan Martinez -/R 6-3 178 6/19/99 DR $
Bejardi Meza -/R 5-11 145 11/16/00 NIC $
Jose Quintana R/R 6-1 160 3/19/02 VZ $
Julian Valdez -/R 6-2 170 12/13/98 DR $
LHP (6)
Name B/T Ht Wt M/D/YR
Wilgenis Alvarado -/L 6-1 170 5/18/00 VZ $
Marc Civit L/L 6-0 150 6/23/02 ESP $
Soenni Martinez -/L 5-11 160 5/26/01 DR $
Argeny Ortiz L/L 6-3 190 9/26/00 DR $
Javier Perdomo -/L VZ $
Yaifer Perdomo -/L 5-11 150 8/16/01 VZ $
CA (3)
Name B/T Ht Wt M/D/YR
Javier D'Orazio R/R 6-2 175 12/26/01 VZ $
Gary David R/R 5-11 160 11/23/01 VZ $
Junior Ramos R/R 6-0 170 10/05/01 DR $
IF (8)
Name B/T Ht Wt M/D/YR
Michael Arias R/R 6-0 155 11/15/01 DR $
Wilfrann Astudillo R/R 5-9 155 8/05/01 VZ $
Leonel Callez R/R 5-11 155 1/25/01 VZ $
Francisco Fajardo S/R 5-10 163 5/26/00 DR $
Gustavo Gutierrez R/R 5-8 150 4/17/02 VZ $
Orelvis Martinez R/R 6-1 170 11/19/01 DR $3.5m
Adrian Montero R/R 5-9 150 8/23/01 PAN $
Emmanuel Sanchez R/R 6-0 160 5/30/01 DR $
OF (6)
Name B/T Ht Wt M/D/YR
Amell Brazoban R/R 6-1 170 9/01/01 DR $
Yeison Jimenez R/R 6-1 175 1/09/01 DR $
Abner King R/R 6-3 210 2/02/00 DR $
Gabriel Martinez R/R 6-0 155 7/24/02 VZ $
Daniel Oliva R/R 6-0 170 9/14/01 DR $
Juan Pizarro L/L 5-11 140 1/18/02 COL $

John Heyman reporting that Vlad is considering filing a grievance for not having been called up.

Donaldson has an ops over. 900 this month

I had some strong words criticizing both those moves earlier and I stand by them - I think they were both mistakes.

Thanks Mendocino. I was getting worried that we only signed about 10 guys. At that young age success and failure is so unpredictable.

Paul D thanks for the info on Donaldson. I have decided to back Cleveland in the playoffs because they were V good in 2016 and 17. Their window may be closed by 2020.

May 2015 - Kris Bryant files grievance over service time manipulation.

Sept 30, 2018 -Kris Bryan grievance still pending

Seager for Sanchez, Reid Foley and a A prospect is more realistic. Sanchez of 2016 for Seager would be fair value but that Sanchez is gone.

A prospect I meant A ball level prospect not type A prospect.

If Shelby Miller is non-tendered, which is possible, he might make an interesting offseason target. Return to form could net a decent prospect. If not, would just be a bit of money flushed down the drain.

Don't remember this being mentioned, but per Passan at Yahoo:

"Sources: A federal grand jury is investigating MLB's international dealings, and officials on all sides are worried"

There is one party not worried. The Orioles.

One thing I have learned following the Indians this year is that they are mashing their own division but are basically a .500 team (in record and run differential) against everyone else. When looking at Donaldson, 10 of the 15 games he has played with Cleveland have been against the AL Central. He is 4 for 19 in the five games against other divisions (Tampa and Boston). Now that's a small sample size and he's just coming back from injury, so by no means does it tell us anything, but I just take every Cleveland accomplishment with a pinch of salt. The Jays as currently constructed would probably win the Central if you swapped them with the Indians. It's a really, really bad division.

Speaking of good divisional records, the Red Sox are 31-7 against Toronto and Baltimore.

Given that the Jays’ lack depth in starters I would have thought that they would be looking to hold on to Sanchez and SRF. In fact, shouldn’t they be out looking for someone else’s Sanchez (youngish starter with upside that is struggling) to take a flyer on?

I think Nigel's hit the nail down firmly...we should be looking for upside pitching to bring into the organization.

Monitoring the chaos. The Dodgers jump out to a 9-0 lead in San Francisco and the Rockies are up 4-0 against Washington. The Dodgers will host the tie-breaker game Monday to settle the Division winner if both teams win (or if both teams lose) and it looks like that's where we're headed.

In the Central, the Cubs would get home field for a Monday tie-break if it comes to that. But the Brewers are winning and the Cubs are losing.

If all this holds up, the Cubs will host the Wild Card game against the loser of tomorrow's Dodgers-Rockies game.

I think I've got it...

Between the Rule 4 Draft, the July IFA signings and trade deadline acquisitions the Jays have added about 70 Players to the system. Now some will make the Team or otherwise fill holes. Others will be starting in the DSL. That's still a lot of people to find spots for.

Tabler the tease. "There's more to defense than just errors committed." Yes, Pat, yes. Heart be still. Finally. Finalement! You're going to talk about range. How much ground do players cover? How many would-be out are hits? How many would-be hits are outs? Yes, Pat, yes. Go for it. How many balls in play are turned into outs? Let's go macro and leave the micro behind. Today's a new day.

Er, no. No macro. He won't cite the obvious. That's just too... obvious. No, it's blocked balls, unturned doubleplays, etc. It's more of the minutiae. Sigh.

Managerial genius putting a guy with a .278 OBP in the leadoff spot. Russ knew Pillar was going to do that.

Khris Davis needs to come out of the Oakland game right now. His batting average is at .247, the exact same as each of the last three years.

Projecting today's game (7-0 lead thru 3.0) has Boston at 108-54 (.667) through 162. They are 31-7 (.775) verses Toronto and Baltimore. That makes them 77-47 (.621) verses everyone else and just the second best percentage.

Cubs hang four runs on the Cardinals, and now all four teams still fighting over the two NL divisions are winning their games, setting up two tie-breakers tomorrow. Embrace the Chaos!

The Cubs are indeed getting smart and embracing the KAOS.

Khris Davis needs to come out of the Oakland game right now.

And Jonathan Lucroy pinch hits for Davis. Gosh, Chuck. Your voice does carry.

My powers over the cosmos are pronounced but limited to the inconsequential.

All four teams scuffling for position in the NL now have four run leads and it looks like absolutely nothing is going to be settled today. This is a pretty nasty dilemma for all the managers. Do you go all-in on the tie-break game? If you win, you get a couple of days to get ready for the Division series. If it doesn't work, do you have any bullets left for the Wild Card game?

Meanwhile, our old chum Jose Bautista has knocked out a couple of hits in the season finale and landed himself safely above the Mendoza Line. Seeing as how Jose was abysmal with the Braves, mediocre with the Mets, and pretty decent with the Philles, one advises him not to miss spring training next year. If at all possible.

And was that the last sighting of Joe Biagini in a Toronto uniform?

One can only hope.

All four teams scuffling for position

No scuffling today. 15-0 and 12-0 scores in the NL West. 11-0 and 10-5 (so far) in the NL Central. An aggregate of 43-5 by the motivated teams.

90 win season for TB and nothing to show for it.
Their fans?????? must be very upset!!!!!!!!

The Jays are tied with S.F. for the 9th/10th pick. That matters little as the Jays regularly lose the coin toss.

Atlanta has the 9th pick and I think they look at the 2017 record if there is a tie.

I don't understand the agonizing over the incremental gains in draft pick position. Would teams even necessarily agree who should be #9? #10? #11? Just look at the history of the draft (wikipedia makes available then details of all historic 1st rounds). The draft is a long ways off from being a science.

Agreed Chuck.

I'm with Chuck on this one. I'm sure we can look back and judge how the draft ended up based on who was picked in what spot, but at the time, the draft boards (outside of maybe the top 5 picks) will look different for practically every team. Now if the difference was between the 10th pick and the 20th pick, then I'd agree that's a real difference. But 10 or 11 seems like a minor difference.

I don't say this often, but I'm glad the season is over. I want to see what the FO does this winter and watching a losing team that is still short on young talent is not fun at all. I think 2019, even if things are bad, will be a lot more fun to watch, for obvious reasons (Vlad being the major one, but also a full season of Jansen, Gurriel, some SP's, and possibly others).

The amount of money available to spend varies greatly for each Pick gained or lost in the Rule 4 Draft and the July IFA period.

Agreed Richard SS.

Monday. Extra playoff games. Whoo Hoo!!!!!!!!

The difference between 10 and 11th isn't much, agreed. But simply looking at the picks is a poor understanding of how the draft works.

In the past, players have dropped not solely because of talent, but because of monetary demands. A couple of the most famous of these were Derek Jeter and Buster Posey, more recently Porcello and Castellanos were drafted/signed by the Tigers that way. Some teams wouldn't draft Boras clients.

Now, every team realizes what a great bargain the draft is, which is why the owners basically hard-capped spending limits and unless a team screws up, they spend to within a few dollars of the limit. Still doesn't mean they draft the BPA.

Groshans wasn't the consensus 12th best player last year, more in the 30's. Now I'm sure the Jays thought he was much better than consensus, but not 12th best. Groshans knew he wasn't 12th best. Jays saved over $800 K by signing him and used that money on Kloff, who fell over 40 picks past his consensus due to monetary demands. Kloff got almost 4 times the $650 K slot for being the 88th pick.

I'm not agonizing, but a higher pick and a few hundred K extra spending money is still something, and especially in a season like this, something does matter somewhat.

"signing a free agent who has compensation would cost you a pick if you are 11th or lower, but not a top 10 iirc."

Each team's highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture

I could not find the dates for deadlines. QO, Non Tender, FA and set 40 man roster for rule 5 protection.

The rule 5 is late Nov.

I think it is weird that people are talking about Russell Martin as a player-manager.

I would LOVE Martin to be the next manager but one of the reasons is that it would free up a roster spot.

Keep paying him, but in a spot where he might be an asset rather than as an over-the-hill player.

For the one who expects him to be traded... you lean a lot on the stupidity of other GMs. (Which pays off some times, I'll admit.)

Martin is a good catcher who would be an upgrade on many teams in the league.

he would be starting on the #1 team in mlb these playoffs.

Martin is a good catcher who would be an upgrade on many teams in the league.

But... but... his batting average!

he would be starting on the #1 team in mlb these playoffs.

Yup. The people who think Martin is a washed up scrub simply don't realize how little offensive production there is in the catchers position throughout the league. It seems because a lot of teams have become more analytical about what makes a good defensive catcher, and are able to quantify it, the offensive component has become less of a priority.

The idea of Martin as the next manager is beyond ridiculous.

Martin is still a useful catcher, but he is a back-up now due to the emergence of Jansen. I would think the team will trade him this winter (to both do him a favor and open up a spot for Jansen), and he should be able to get some value back assuming the Jays eat up a large chunk of the salary.

The manager part is not going to happen. Maybe years down the road after his playing career is over, but definitely not next year.

Joel Reuter at Bleacher Report recently re-ranked farm systems, taking into account graduations. Jays #3.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2794480-re-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-at-the-end-of-2018-milb-season#slide0

Was expecting some stupid BR commentary when I happened upon this, but there was nothing egregious. I don't visit BR, if anyone does, is it much improved from years past?

Monday. Extra playoff games. Whoo Hoo!!!!!!!!

Strictly speaking, I believe these are extra regular season games. Full September rosters and all. Should be LOTS of pitching changes.

Gregor Chisholm says the leaning candidates (according to rumours he is hearing) are John McDonald, John Schneider, and Stubby Clapp.

He says they are looking for a 'fresh face'.

https://www.canadianbaseballnetwork.com/canadian-baseball-network-articles/fisher-cats-manager-schneider-talks-coaching-guerrero-jr-and-advanced-stats


Schneider on analytics

As Schneider continues to grow as a young manager, he says he’s embraced the analytical side, pointing to sabermetrics as a key component and resource he’s used throughout his transition from each level. With several front offices, specifically, the Houston Astros, expanding their analytics department over the years, Schneider agrees that numbers can play a significant part in assessing a player - and team’s - performance.

“I definitely am a believer in them (sabermetrics). We definitely use them here. I think it has an impact because if you’re ignoring tendencies, you’re not evolving with the game,” he said.

“I think this is where people have different opinions. Are they good? Absolutely. Do I use them? Absolutely. But you can never lose sight of the person, and you can never lose sight of what you know how a competitor is on the field.”

With news that the Blue Jays and longtime manager John Gibbons are expected to mutually part ways at the end of the 2018 season, there’s speculation that the front office will seek out a manager that believes in the use of sabermetrics, among other qualifications. Schneider says he’s cognizant of the way it impacts the sport but admits he has to trust his judgment, too.

“You have to use numbers, you have to trust tendencies, and you also have to trust people. There’s going to be times numbers say this is the right matchup, and your heart and your head are telling you something may be better. It’s (analytics) definitely useful. I think we, as an organization, will continue to use them, but you have to use them the right way.”

Citing examples from his experience in New Hampshire, Schneider says he went against what the numbers were saying and that it worked out, though it did backfire on him, as well. Schneider also admitted that, over the course of the season, the Blue Jays provided the Fisher Cats with advanced information for different opponents, forcing his coaching staff to make adjustments accordingly through the use of analytics.

“It comes down to trusting the numbers but also trusting the person,” Schneider said. “If you’re not evolving with trends, you’re just kind of sitting there doing nothing. As a coach or manager, you have to very rarely say ‘Well that’s how it’s always been done’ and you have to be open to new ideas. You have to take each and every number and the information that’s being given to you, and it’s my job how to best put it in play with each player.”

Pillar squeaks out the team Batting average crown (if you don't count Diaz), bbWAR lead (2.5! that's...not good for a team leader) and SB lead (no Jay has ever lead the league in SB, and that streak appears to be unthreatened for the forseeable future), and Grichuk ties Smoak for the HR lead. Smoak leads RBI, OPS, OBP. The only hitters who get on base are bad (or just slow) baserunners. Between Grichuk, Diaz, Hernandez, and Gurriel, the Jays have 4 guys are basically the same player. All of them slightly above average hitters due to slugging and slightly below average on base skills, none of them great in the field (definitely not this year anyway).

No pitcher comes close to qualifying for the ERA title - Estrada would have if he hadn't pitched so terribly I suppose. Happ easily leads the team in Wins, ERA, SO, despite being traded in July.

Recent ex-Jays littering the playoffs, with Osuna in Houston, Happ in New York, and Donaldson in Cleveland possibly playing leading roles, as well as Oh in Colorado, Granderson in Milwaukee, Pearce in Boston, Garcia in Chicago (wait, he's really pitching every other day for them?). So to my quick scan only the Dodgers, A's, and Braves without a 2017 or 2018 Jay on the roster. And the Braves ran Bautista out there for a while, Axford was on the Dodgers but I assume not the postseason roster since he hasn't pitched in 10 days? The A's have 2015 Jay Liam Hendriks, so they are the furthest removed. I don't remember ever seeing a year where so many recent Jays are in the playoffs (not counting the years the Jays made it of course). Frankly, even if you reassembled the guys on other teams to the current roster, most of whom have done very well with their new teams, it's not like that team is going anywhere. Kinda' sums up the 2018 Jays roster. Hope some of the assets they were traded for pay off.

NH was a young team, talented too. No AAAA players.


Schneider had that chalk board counting V hard hit balls. Bichette got a lead on Vlad while Vlad was on the DL. Vlad noticed, said that he would regain the lead and did before going to Buffalo.


So Schneider has motivation skills.

Youngest possible lineup I can draw out from this year's Jays:

(you guys are gonna love these sample sizes)


LH Borucki (24): 91era-, 3.1war32
LH Pannone (24): 107era-, 1.1war32
RH Stroman (27): 130era-, 1.0war32
RH Sanchez (25): 115era-, 0.9war32
RH R-Foley (22): 120era-, 0.0war32




RF Smith (25): 124wrc+, 0.9war650
1B Tellez (23): 151wrc+, 4.5war650
C McGuire (23): 146wrc+, 7.9war650
DH Jansen (23): 115wrc+, 4.9war650
CF McKinney (23): 114wrc+, 1.0war650
LF Teoscar (25): 107wrc+, 0.3war650
3B Gurriel (24): 103wrc+, 1.0war650
SS Urena (22): 95wrc+, 1.2war650
2B Drury (25): 44wrc+, -3.8war650

OF Pompey (25): 35wrc+, 0.0war650
OF Alford (23): -15wrc+, -3.1war650


That's one hellacious defensive outfield there.

My early vote is for John McDonald. Didn't he also learn Spanish in his time since retiring from playing baseball?

That's who I want to see and who I also think it will be.

McDonald
Woodward
Derosa

Seems like the best candidates and cheapest to me. I think Jmac would be the most aggressive/innovative Ala Cash and the Rays front office.

I'm with Magpie and other on the "can the Jays please field a good defense next year" bandwagon. Pitchers have a heck of a time in front of the current (bottom 5) defense, and the complete list of Jays starters who are high strikeout guys is: Sean Reid-Foley. That's it. Everyone else is going to need some help out there.

It's funny (like slapstick painful funny) that by baseball reference the highest rfield on the team was Brandon Drury (+1, 8 games played). Everyone else zero or negative. Catchers not included here, who all rated highly. Assuming Guerrero is about average (he seemed to be OK this year, and he's young enough to improve), is there a configuration of the other players that gets you a decent defense? Is Pillar/Grichuk/McKinney an average OF defense? Who plays middle infield well enough to actually add to their value?

John MacDonald as manager might go insane watching this roster play "defense". He's a "Defensive coordinator" with Cleveland, how does that make him a possible manager? I haven't followed closely enough to know if his name has come up anywhere else.

"No pitcher comes close to qualifying for the ERA title - Estrada would have if he hadn't pitched so terribly I suppose."

Could you not say this about pretty much anybody?

"He would have been better if he had been better."

It will not be MacDonald as he has no experience and Atkins has already said that is a must. He could be on coaching staff however. Schneider might work with Clapp as batting instructor.

I think not. Pannone was never going to qualify for the ERA title regardless of how he pitched.

Schneider is an interesting guy to listed to, he has a fairly large personality- at least that's my memory of him from his Vancouver days.

I don't expect this team to field a good defence next year - the pieces just aren't there yet. I'd settle for just one or two personnel moves that suggest the front office cares about defence. That would be a good start.

Grichuk, Pillar and McKinney might give you average OF defence but it won't be easy. McKinney seems like a slightly below average defender in just about every tool (arm, speed, route running) and Pillar seems to be declining relatively rapidly.

Yeah, the fewest games started by any qualified pitcher this year was Bauer's 27. Estrada was our only pitcher with over 24 GS.

Borucki wouldn't have qualified even if he'd gone 9 IP every start he made.

2yr Stats for Players under control next year (fwar only for now):



1B Smoak (32): 1231pa, 128wrc+, 2.8war650
DH Morales (36): 1079pa, 102wrc+, -0.2war650
LF Martin (36): 717pa, 96wrc+, 2.2war650
3B Diaz (28): 753pa, 92wrc+, 1.6war650
CF Pillar (30): 1174pa, 88wrc+, 2.2war650
RF Solarte (31): 1018pa, 84wrc+, -0.2war650
2B Travis (28): 575pa, 81wrc+, 0.1war650
SS Tulo (34): 260pa, 79wrc+, 0.3war650
C Maile (28): 367pa, 60wrc+, 1.1war650


RF Smith (26): 104pa, 127wrc+, 1.0war650
1B Tellez (24): 73pa, 151wrc+, 4.5war650
C Jansen (24): 95pa, 115wrc+, 4.8war650
LF McKinney (24): 132pa, 112wrc+, 0.0war650
DH Teoscar (26): 618pa, 111wrc+, 0.8war650
CF Grichuk (27): 904pa, 105wrc+, 2.5war650
2B Gurriel (25): 263pa, 103wrc+, 1.0war650
3B Drury (26): 566pa, 85wrc+, 0.6war650
SS Urena (23): 183pa, 79wrc+, 0.0war650

OF Pompey (26): 11pa, 35wrc+, 0.0war650
OF Davis (27): 27pa, 39wrc+, -2.4war650
OF Alford (24): 29pa, -15wrc+, -4.5war650
C McGuire (24): 33pa, 146wrc+, 7.9war650

Maddon just used Jesse Chavez in game 163. That would have seemed unthinkable given that Chavez has been terrible for a long time now. Or had been, anyway. Maddon has somehow squeezed out some pretty incredible work from him.

Yeah, posted this a couple of weeks ago

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/jesse-chavez-has-become-most-important-pitcher-cubs-bullpen-morrow-strop-maddon

And his 1.44 ERA at the time with the Cubs has actually gone down since.

3-1 Brewers going to the bottom of the eight. Until Braun with the CS, Maddon had used 4 relievers in the eighth to get one out.

As improbable as Jesse Chavez was to be in this game, Jaime Garcia in to hold the Brewers at bay in the 9th.

Maddon just used Jesse Chavez in game 163.

Maddon is now using Jaime Garcia in Game 163.

Okay, since August 1 he's made 12 relief appearances for two teams and given up exactly 1 run. But still...

Where are Doug Creek and Jeff Tam when you really need them? 

Cubs lose.

The problem with turning the game over to seven relief pitchers is that you're almost always going to find the guy who doesn't have anything that day. Maddon found him. Jose Quintana is a pretty good pitcher by the way.

Yelich ends his season with an OPS of 1.000.

Maddon is making the case for the rule change I'd like to see - relievers must complete an inning or allow at least one run (inherited or their own) before being pulled unless an injury occurs.  If injured they are automatically on the 10 day DL.

It's a sudden death playoff to decide the divison winner and the loser... lives to fight another day. If they'd had this when I was young, no one would know who the hell Bucky Dent was.

Oh well.

Growing up in Montreal, and certainly old enough to have borne witness to the infamous Dent homerun, I knew that dent was French for tooth. So Bucky Dent seemed like a joke name that I wonder if even Bucky himself knew about.

Hey ugly,

Am I to understand that a replacement level DH would put up a >100 wRC+, or has Morales picked up some bad defensive WAR along the way over the past two seasons?

On Sept 28th, Brad Doolittle at ESPN posted a calculation of the most common amount of runs scored in a game by each team this year.

Red Sox most often scored 6 runs, the only team to do so. 3 teams had 5 as their most common, the Nats, Cards and surprisingly, the Jays. The Cubs most common was 1 run, which they had scored in 26 games. And then they added 2 more 1 run efforts in their last 3 games.

And the Cubs score 1 run for the 29th and last time this season.