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The Bauxites have spoken. I received eight top 30 prospect lists and I have compiled them into a combined top 30. The resulting top 30 is similar in many ways to the Top 30 posted last week but there are a few key differences. The top nine on both lists have the same names with small changes in the order. Further down, the differences are bigger.

For the purposes of explaining the two top 30 lists, I will refer to last weeks list as the “official” list and this one as the “Bauxite” list.

Submissions were received from bpoz; Michael Green; Nigel; Tamra; whiterasta80; Jonny German; Ay Jackson and Dan Gordon. Thanks to all.

Here is the Bauxite top 30 with the official ranking shown after the name.

  1. Vlad Guerrero Jr (1)
  2. Bo Bichette (2)
  3. Danny Jansen (3)
  4. Nate Pearson (4)
  5. Sean Reid-Foley (7)
  6. Eric Pardinho (8)
  7. Jordan Groshans (6)
  8. Kevin Smith (5)
  9. Cavan Biggio (9)
  10. Orelvis Martinez (15)
  11. Anthony Alford (12)
  12. TJ Zeuch (17)
  13. Adam Kloffenstein (10)
  14. Hector Perez (11)
  15. Rowdy Tellez (13)
  16. Patrick Murphy (20)
  17. Miguel Hiraldo (29)
  18. Billy McKinney (16)
  19. Chavez Young (18)
  20. David Paulino (--)
  21. Thomas Pannone (14)
  22. Yennsy Diaz (--)
  23. Reese McGuire (22)
  24. Samad Taylor (24)
  25. Ryan Noda (27)
  26. Riley Adams (23)
  27. Hagen Danner (26)
  28. Logan Warmoth (30)
  29. Otto Lopez (--)
  30. Maximo Castillo (--)

The first thing to note is that are four players who are on this list that did not make the official list. They are David Paulino; Yennsy Diaz; Otto Lopez; and Maximo Castillo. The four heading out are Travis Bergen; Jordan Romano; Max Pentecost and Griffin Conine.

Opinions on Paulino’s ranking is related to your opinion of his ability to be a major league starting pitcher. Over eight professional seasons Paulino has thrown a total of 280 innings. His high for a season is the 90 innings he threw in 2016. Over the last three seasons he has thrown a total of 76 innings. So even though Paulino has pitched as a starter, can he hold up as a starter? When I left Paulino out of my own top 30, it was because I thought he would be a reliever.

Yennsy Diaz has some of those same questions. His case was helped when the Jays added him to their 40 man roster so the Jays believe in him. If that was known before the official list was put together, Diaz would likely have made it.

As mentioned in the "almost" post, Otto Lopez is a tough guy to pin down. He can hit and is very versatile in the field. But he is slight and there are those who want to see him hit in full season leagues before believing in him.

The final player added was Maximo Castillo who had success in Lansing this year but who doesn’t throw hard. Your belief in the value of velocity could determine whether you had him in your top 30 or not.

On the outs are Jordan Romano, who was #32 in the Bauxite list, Max Pentecost who was #33, Griffin Conine who was #34 and Travis Bergen who was #36. Trent Thornton was #31, he was not a member of the Jays when the official list was prepared and Justin Maese was #35. Maese had shoulder surgery this year. Romano and Bergen were presumably dropped because they profile as relievers and because the Jays did not protect them on the 40 man roster. Pentecost was cold and then hot in 2018, if you believe the hot he was on your list, if you believed the cold he wasn’t. And Conine had strikeout issues this year that put questions in voters minds.

Two of the biggest movers within the lists were for two recent international free agents. Orelvis Martinez, who has yet to play a professional game, was rated 15 in the official list and tenth by the Bauxites. Similarly, Miguel Hiraldo was 29 in the official list and 17 in the Bauxite list. So, the Bauxite voters love their top international free agents.

Elsewhere TJ Zeuch was loved by the Bauxites, rated at 12, compared to 17 in the official list. On the other hand, the Bauxites did not appreciate Thomas Pannone, who was 21, while he was at 14 on the official list. Neither of them are hard throwing, strikeout pitchers, and both have divided opinions.

All other differences were within three places.

Thanks to all who participated.

The Bauxites Speak - Top 30 Prospects | 41 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, November 29 2018 @ 07:57 PM EST (#368185) #
Thanks Gerry. Really fun follow-on to my favourite offseason feature.

Mike Green - Thursday, November 29 2018 @ 08:07 PM EST (#368186) #
Thanks, Gerry.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 29 2018 @ 08:17 PM EST (#368187) #
Thank You Gerry.
This is much, much closer to what I expect.
Once again, Thank You Gerry.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 29 2018 @ 10:00 PM EST (#368189) #
I think David Paulino makes the Roster as a multi-inning Reliever, mainly because he can't stay healthy enough to Start. However he might not be there at Season Start, or he might be an integral part of the Team.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, November 29 2018 @ 10:03 PM EST (#368191) #
Thank-you Gerry for putting this together and for all of your contributions.
Jonny German - Friday, November 30 2018 @ 04:55 AM EST (#368196) #
Thanks Gerry, very interesting to read. One question, how do you handle players that don't appear everybody's top-30 list? For example, if a player is rated #25, #26, and #27 by 3 people and not rated at all by a 4th person, how do you work out where he belongs on the list?

Opinions on Paulino’s ranking is related to your opinion of his ability to be a major league starting pitcher.

Not really. You've stated that you don't rate him highly because you see him as a bullpen guy. But my (much higher) ranking for him is not based on thinking he can make it as a starter, but rather that he has the potential to be an ace reliever. It's a lot easier for me to imagine him being the 8th-inning guy on a playoff club than it is to think of Pannone or Romano ever making a start in October.

Pentecost was cold and then hot in 2018, if you believe the hot he was on your list, if you believed the cold he wasn’t.

I believed the overall, a very weak line for player who was 3 years old for his league. I don't get why it is that Pentecosts' 1st-round pedigree keeps him on many prospect lists 5 years on, while Warmoth is at the curb after one bad season.

So, the Bauxite voters love their top international free agents.

For me it's as simple as this: The Jays think Orelvis Martinez is such a good prospect they've already given him $3.5M. That carries a lot more weight with me than a 2-line scouting report or 200 at-bats in rookie ball.
Mike Green - Friday, November 30 2018 @ 08:34 AM EST (#368200) #
Everyone has their own philosophy for dealing with prospects without a track record.  Here's mine.  I respect that the club has experts on what talent can be developed more easily, and so I give credit players who the club has spent considerable money on, whether 1st round picks or IFAs with big dollar signs.  The amount of credit will depend on whether I have my own independent confirmation of the talent from my own eyes or eyes I trust.  

As years pass (and performance and injury history accumulate), historical evaluations of talent become less important. 

So, with the current crop:
1.  Pentecost- I liked the pick and saw video at the time.  He looked to me like a good defensive catcher and a hitter with good bat-to-ball skills with an injury history to the shoulder.  I thought that if he couldn't stay at catcher, he had the secondary skills, including enough speed, to make the transition to another position.  When his injuries accumulated, I lamented that the club did not attempt to move him to another position.  At this point, a move could still be one, but he's lost important development time due to injuries and I no longer am optimistic about the possibility of a move.
2.  Warmoth- I was lukewarm (sorry!) about the pick.  He seemed to me a so-so defensive shortstop with some power and below average bat-to-ball skills.  Reporting from Nigel in Vancouver supported my view of his defensive abilities last year, and he didn't hit that well for age and level.  2018 was pretty much a write-off.  At this point, I'd probably rank Warmoth ahead of Pentecost, but both way down the list. 
3. the big-name IFAs and Kloffenstein- very young, all with very good but not major-league ready tools,  no performance data.  These players are not like Osuna or Pardinho or Vladdy at age 17, with performance that shows that where they are headed. I take a mid-range view of them.
4. Groshans- I didn't like the pick because of his stance and swing, but I've come around completely because of changes to his stance and the performance data. 
Gerry - Friday, November 30 2018 @ 08:42 AM EST (#368201) #
In regard to list mechanics, I assume everyone not on the top 30 is a 40. I then just add the totals and sort.
Nigel - Friday, November 30 2018 @ 12:34 PM EST (#368214) #
Thanks Gerry - I know my tiering approach didn't help this exercise.

On the large ticket IFA's I think that the size of the cheque makes a big difference in perceived value of the tools. On that score, I think it fair to say that the baseball industry thinks very differently about Martinez at $3.4 than Hiraldo at $.75. Hiraldo had a decent start to his pro career but nothing earth shattering. I think the official list has Hiraldo in a better spot than the posters (myself included).

Mike you needn't apologize for your view on the Warmoth pick. I didn't really have any views on him on draft day (because I knew nothing about him) but I was pretty shocked when I saw him in Vancouver. There have only been two Jays' high draft picks that when I saw them I couldn't figure out why they were drafted so highly - Warmoth and Jon Harris. That isn't a criticism of either of those draft picks because the industry consensus of both was that they were first round picks. But I can understand you having an unfavourable view of the pick if you watched some pre-draft tape of him.
bpoz - Friday, November 30 2018 @ 01:15 PM EST (#368215) #
My philosophy is in regards to SPs. I love the elite ones. The not elite like Todd Stottlemyre and J Litsch are also highly regarded by me. Injuries on the way up the minors and in the Majors are a big factor as well. Mostly unknown to a large degree.

It is easy to measure velocity and spin rates. Movement on pitches is a factor as is variety of offerings. We are trying to guess potential, #3/4 starter, closer or long man in the pen and success level. So I tried looking at AA/AAA results.
Mylegacy - Friday, November 30 2018 @ 03:14 PM EST (#368219) #
Gerry, as always many thanks.

I am in LOVE with "A. Kirk."

In my mind, such as it is, and on my list, had I the patience to actually make one, Alejandro Kirk would be on it at least at #30.

He is now 20. He was born in Tijuana, Baja, California, Mexico. We signed him September 24th 2016 as a "free agent RHP." He is now listed as being a catcher (can't find any RHP stats for him, on any level, 2016-2018).

Since we signed him, he has grown to be all of: 5'9" and 220 pounds. In Bluefield in 2018 he had 206 AB, .352, .443. .558, 1.001.

I think he is a tad old for Bluefield, but only a tad.

I see a budding Molina. I love Molinas. I love all Molinas. You can NEVER have too many Molinas. I want me a new Molina.

IF he makes it I will take up a collection to get the dosh he needs to change his name to: Alejandro Kirk Molina!

That is all.
TamRa - Friday, November 30 2018 @ 09:29 PM EST (#368238) #
mildly surprised to see SRF so high, he provokes a lot of divergent views.

My hunch on Paulino is that  they will go into spring giving him one more n-house go at starting (just to get their own evaluations on what's there) but if/when he breaks down again he's likely bound for the bullpen.

I, for one had rather not sign a veteran SP for the fifth spot but leave an opening for Paulino (first) and others to work through and try to establish they can seize the job

Glevin - Saturday, December 01 2018 @ 02:55 AM EST (#368244) #
"I see a budding Molina."

Yadier Molina is 5'11" 205. Kirk is 5'9", 220. He looks like a hitter, I just don't see how that body (at 20, it's only going to get worse) translates into a major leaguer at anything other than DH. And if you see video or pictures, it's very obviously problematic. Maybe he hits well enough to be exciting even as a DH but the bar is very high there.
Mylegacy - Saturday, December 01 2018 @ 10:37 AM EST (#368248) #
Gleven, you say about Kirk: "He looks like a hitter, however..." His body,"... it's only going to get worse..." his only position in the show will be "...DH..." and that "...the bar is very high there."

All true.

But if even one drop of his blood, has even a whiff of any Molina in it, - he will find a way.

The only difference between a "Baseball God" and a "Molina" is that the Baseball Gods ask Molina's for advice.

Had Desi Arnaz discussed any Molina with Lucille Ball (YA, I KNOW - a thousand years before your time) Desi would have said: "Lucy jew can never have too many Molinas!"

Me. Personally. I agree with Desi!
Glevin - Saturday, December 01 2018 @ 12:51 PM EST (#368249) #
Did Kirk fall into a cauldron of magic potion when he was a little boy? Would be very helpful.
Dewey - Saturday, December 01 2018 @ 01:42 PM EST (#368250) #
Anybody remember Smokey Burgess?  What were his dimensions?  Guy could hit.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, December 01 2018 @ 04:34 PM EST (#368254) #
A quick look at Wikipedia says Burgess was 5ft8 and weighed 188 lbs. during his playing career which would make him stocky but not huge.
GabrielSyme - Saturday, December 01 2018 @ 04:47 PM EST (#368256) #
On Kirk, there's nothing that necessitates him staying at his current weight. People are capable of losing weight. Maybe Kirk doesn't have the self-discipline to do so, but let's not assume that to be the case.
Gerry - Saturday, December 01 2018 @ 05:22 PM EST (#368258) #
Kirk has the potential of earning millions of dollars to give him motivation for getting in shape.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, December 01 2018 @ 06:29 PM EST (#368260) #
Three pre-arb years are worth about $1.75 Million for the new Players. Just being barely average, earns about another $1 Million, $2 Million and $3 Million over three arbitration years.
greenfrog - Saturday, December 01 2018 @ 07:01 PM EST (#368261) #
220 is the new 188.
Dewey - Saturday, December 01 2018 @ 08:20 PM EST (#368264) #
Wow.  Smokey might have weighed 188 lbs. when he came up; but I’d wager he was considerably more than that later in his career.

Listed heights and weights are sometimes of dubious exactitude.  Ages, too.  Remember Junior Felix?
budgell - Saturday, December 01 2018 @ 08:46 PM EST (#368266) #
Smokey was 188 lbs? Someone's "got some 'splaining to do"!
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, December 01 2018 @ 11:00 PM EST (#368267) #
Uh,well, I think they meant pounds. Having never seen him play, it sounds like they just listed his weight at age 18 and never changed it !
Glevin - Sunday, December 02 2018 @ 01:05 AM EST (#368268) #
Kirk could lose some weight but he has a body that will never be athletic and will always be very difficult to keep weight off and who knows if losing weight would change his hitting, Maybe if loses weight he can stay at catcher for a few years but I think you have to view him right now as a DH.
budgell - Sunday, December 02 2018 @ 06:30 AM EST (#368271) #
You're right Mylegacy, I guess the Desi references are a little old (as am I).
Mylegacy - Sunday, December 02 2018 @ 02:11 PM EST (#368279) #

Guilty as charged!

Off topic - BUT (since I'm easily distracted) - when I think of "old" references I often think of Foster Hewitt, the "Voice of Hockey in Canada" who's voice I can still hear.

His voice was unique and to me at least, very comforting. He WAS "Hockey Night In Canada." He died in 1985 of "throat cancer." An undeserved, unnecessary insult to a guy who so many Canadians loved.

Some times shit happens. Sigh.

Let's face it, I'm getting maudlin in my dotage. Time for a single malt?

whiterasta80 - Monday, December 03 2018 @ 06:36 AM EST (#368288) #
Nice trade for philly depending on the filler. I've never bought what JP Crawford was selling.

Walk rate is nice, but when pitchers realize that they dont have to be careful it usually goes down.

Basically he is Mike Reeves.
budgell - Monday, December 03 2018 @ 02:37 PM EST (#368298) #
"..maudlin in my dotage".
Well said sir.
In a similar voice of hockey vein, this marks the last year for the great Bob Cole. Was lucky enough to get paired with him a few times at Bally Haly golf club in St. John's. Genuinely nice man, didn't press him for anecdotes and he generally didn't offer but for the time he went off on Gary Suter for the check from behind on Gretzky in the 91 Canada Cup. His admiration and affection for The Great One was palpable.
Richard S.S. - Monday, December 03 2018 @ 02:57 PM EST (#368299) #
J.P. Crawford will become the Mariners' long-term Starting S.S. In-house, they don't have any alternative that's not in Short Season Ball. Until the Mariners acquire someone better/the answer via Trade or Free Agency, Crawford is it.
whiterasta80 - Monday, December 03 2018 @ 05:36 PM EST (#368305) #
It may well work out for Seattle. I just think that philly made a big upgrade without spending a lot.
scottt - Monday, December 03 2018 @ 05:42 PM EST (#368306) #
Doubtful. They had one of the worse farm system and a competitive team. Now they'll have a 70 win team and an average farm system. Who's the face of this franchise now?
Glevin - Tuesday, December 04 2018 @ 01:53 AM EST (#368309) #
"Doubtful. They had one of the worse farm system and a competitive team. Now they'll have a 70 win team and an average farm system. Who's the face of this franchise now?"

Who cares? They went from a non=playoff team with a terrible system going nowhere to a team that can be competitive in a few years. They'll get a couple high draft picks, make some more trades and probably be competitive by 2021. Beats spinning your wheels at .500 forever.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 04 2018 @ 10:37 AM EST (#368312) #
A propos of the Alejandro Kirk discussion, I have a couple of links:

1.  BMI rates  in baseball have risen beginning in 1991. 
2.  Here's a 2011 link on the players with the highest BMIs including a current Blue Jay (guess before you click on the link!)
mathesond - Tuesday, December 04 2018 @ 11:22 AM EST (#368313) #
Well, don't I feel silly. My initial thought was the correct answer, but then I went through the roster and changed my guess.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, December 04 2018 @ 04:35 PM EST (#368315) #
I dont understand how panda is outside the top 5.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 04 2018 @ 04:46 PM EST (#368316) #
Seattle got better: Hitters:
Mitch Haniger RF, bats Right;
Mallex Smith CF, bats Left;
Jay Bruce LF, bats Left;
Ben Gamel 4th, bats Left;
Carlos Santana 1B, Switch:
Dee Gordon 2B, bats Left;
J.P. Crawford SS, bats Left;
Kyle Seager 3B, bats Left;
Ryan Healy DH/1B, bats Right;
Omar Narvaez C, bats Left,
David Freitas C, bats Right.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 04 2018 @ 04:51 PM EST (#368317) #
Of note, Rene Rivera was (in 2011) just about the same height and weight as Alejandro Kirk.  He's lost 20 pounds since then, and still played last year at age 35.  He's been a pretty good defensive player over the years.  I checked his minor league history.  He was advanced rapidly up Seattle's minor league system despite not really hitting anywhere.  His career MLB line of .220/.271/.353 is a reflection of what he did in the minor leagues. 
dan gordon - Tuesday, December 04 2018 @ 05:51 PM EST (#368318) #
Thanks for the BMI list, Mike. I managed to guess #1 correctly. Panda is outside the top 5 because the weight they have listed for him is, shall we say, conservative. My guess would be that he weighed at least 30 pounds more than the weight they show. I also think that Sabathia was considerable more than the listed weight. That's the problem with the list - it's kind of interesting to see, but the listed weights are often too low.
scottt - Tuesday, December 04 2018 @ 06:32 PM EST (#368323) #
Russell is listed at 205lb now.
I'm 6'1, 230lbs and I don't think I look like CC.
I'm taking those weight number with an asterix.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 05 2018 @ 10:50 AM EST (#368328) #
MLB Pipeline has its early 2019  top 50 draft.  Andrew Vaughn is only the 3rd rated prospect, but I'm going to have watch some video and track him next year.  His line at age 20 in the PAC-12 is quite similar to Frank Thomas' line at age 21 in the SEC. 
The Bauxites Speak - Top 30 Prospects | 41 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.