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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets a home run. Kevin Smith, you get a home run. Anthony Alford, you get a home run. Despite those home runs, Buffalo and New Hampshire lost. Dunedin won with home runs from Ryan Noda and Cullen Large.

The season is a week old today and I thought we should take a peak at the hitting stats, even though it is a small sample size and for some hitters the weather has not been hitter friendly. Even so, it is fun to see what trends we are seeing early, even if they disappear in another few weeks.

Buffalo 8 Scranton WB 9 - 10 innings

Shawn Morimando got pounded for seven runs in less than three innings and the Bisons trailed 7-1. But they fought back with home runs by Vladdy and Alford to tie the game at 8-8. The game went to extra innings. In the top of the tenth, Alford started the inning on second but was out trying to steal third. In the bottom of the tenth, a wild pitch by Derek Law put the runner on third, he scored on a single. The two big hitters, Vlad and Alford, drove in four runs each. They had two hits each as did Biggio and Sogard. Corey Copping pitched well in relief, he had five strikeouts in two innings.

Cavan Biggio leads the hitters with a .417 average, Roemon Fields is also hitting over .400. Bo Bichette is bringing up the rear with a .138 average. Bichette has just three strikeouts in 29 at-bats so he is not being fooled. He has walked just twice so he might need to tone down the aggressiveness. Eric Sogard leads the team with just two K's, he has walked five times. Several of the Bisons have low strikeout numbers. Heidt, Patterson and Alford have the most, but there is a big gap from Alford's 10 to Andrew Guillotte's five. Cavan Biggio leads the team with six walks.

New Hampshire 5 Hartford 10

Hector Perez, like Morimando, gave up seven runs in three innings. That put the Fisher Cats in a hole they could not get out of, despite having 14 hits. Three hitters who were off to slow starts picked up three hits each. Kevin Smith was one of them and among his hits were a home run and a double. Forrest Wall and Nash Knight also had three hits. Alberto Mineo had two.

Mineo continues to hit well, his average is .318 although he doesn't walk much or hit for power. Josh Palacios is hitting .308 and leads the team in OPS (for those with at least 10 AB's). Brock Lundquist is 1-22, Chad Spanberger and Santiago Espinal are also below the Mendoza line. Kacy Clemens and Espinal are hot striking out much. Clemens has six walks and three K's. Spanberger leads the team in K's with ten, Kevin Smith has nine. Palacios has five walks and six K's.

Dunedin 5 Fort Myers 0

After being shut out twice, the D-Jays got some revenge with a 5-0 win. Nick Allgeyer pitched five shutout innings of two hit ball. Three relievers finished up. Cullen Large started the scoring with his first home run of the year. Ryan Noda also hit his first home run, a two run shot. Noda had two hits, the only hitter to do so.

In small sample sizes, Noda leads the team with a .286 average, the Jays have not been hitting. Chavez Young and Riley Adams are in the .270's. Samad Taylor, Cal Stevenson, and Logan Warmoth are both hitting well under .200. Other than Vlad Jr., Adams has the fewest K's, 5 in 18 AB's. Stevenson has 6 in 25. Noda and Christian Williams lead the team in K's with 12, Large has 11. Large and Demi Orimoloye lead in walks with six.

West Michigan 7 Lansing 3

Pitching is the name of the game and the Lugnuts staff were off in this game. The starter was 2018 draftee Josh Hiatt, making his first professional start. It was a lot of fours, four innings, four hits, four walks and one big home run allowed. He was charged with three runs. New Blue Jay Juan De Paula maybe didn't like the cold, he was charged with three more runs in 2.2 innings. Mike Pascoe finished up and allowed the seventh run. Otto Lopez, Dom Abbadessa and John Aiello each had two hits. One of Lopez's hits was a double and one of Abbadessa's a triple.

In the small sample size hitting stats, Otto Lopez is hitting .409 with Jordan Groshans and Alejandro kirk also above .300. Lopez has only 2 K's in 22 at-bats. Ryan Gold also has just 2 in 15 at-bats. Other good contact hitters are Kirk (3 K's), Hagen Danner and Nick Podul, (5 each). Groshans is middle of the road, 6 in 19 at-bats. Reggie Pruitt and McGregory Contreras are the K kings, close to 50% each. Lopez and Kirk lead the walkers with five each.

3 Stars

3rd star: Kevin Smith

2nd star: Anthony Alford

1st star: Vlad Jr


Prospect-A-Palooza | 38 comments | Create New Account
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dan gordon - Friday, April 12 2019 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#372403) #
I mentioned Allgeyer after his 1st game, and he is now up to 13 K's vs 0 BB's. I like K/BB ratio as an evaluative tool for pitching prospects. He was skipped a level, and has had a couple of nice starts in high A ball. Lefty, 6' 3", 12th round pick last year.

Some disappointing early results, like Bichette, Taylor, Espinal, Warmoth among the middle infielders, Stevenson, Lundquist among the OF's, and Perez with a disappointing start today, but it's way too early at this point. Perhaps Stevenson should only have been skipped 1 level, not 2. I had figured he would start at Lansing.

Mike Green - Friday, April 12 2019 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#372411) #
Anthony Alford had a mixed game.  He did hit the big 3 run homer in the 7th to tie the game, but struck out three times and was caught stealing. In the ninth with two outs and nobody on in a tie game, Biggio walked and stole second but Alford struck out.  In 30 PAs,

Biggio has 4 extra-base hits, 6 walks and 4 strike outs this year.  If you work in 2018 statistics, he now has 589 PAs in the high minors about 90% of a full major league season- 24 doubles, 6 triples, 28 homers, 106 walks and 152 strikeouts, with 22 stolen bases and 8 caught stealing.  That looks to me like it would translate into a useful player in the outfield (even if he can't play second base well enough). 
bpoz - Friday, April 12 2019 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#372412) #
Groshans put up similarly good numbers last year in the GCL to Bichette when he was in the GCL.

So with a massive amount of hope I thought Groshans would progress like Bo. He jumped to Lansing like Bo. So far in Lansing SSS Groshans has not disappointed me.

I made comparisons and extrapolated Bo B and Jordan G are both V good but different.

Bo .384 Avg, 10% BB, 19% K.

Jordan .368 Avg, 21% BB, 31% K.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, April 12 2019 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#372413) #
Alford has been hitting the ball hard, but essentially needs to cut his early season strikeout rate in half before he should be considered for a full time major league job.
bpoz - Friday, April 12 2019 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#372418) #
I know it is SSS but it is fun to dream. So besides Groshans, Otto Lopez and A Kirk also look similarly incredible. All V young too.
Mike Green - Friday, April 12 2019 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#372420) #
In thinking about Alejandro Kirk, I wondered about Mike Napoli. It turns out that Napoli was born on October 31 (Alejandro was born on November 6) and at age 20, Napoli was also in the Midwest League.  He hit .251/.362/.392 there.  Kirk has, so far in his career, had much better W/K numbers and about the same power.  It looks like the young man can really hit, and usually a place can be found for that.

Kirk might be a better defensive catcher, but he's only 5'9" instead of Napoli's 6'1" so less likely to make the move to first base.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, April 12 2019 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#372422) #
Kirk is the biggest pop-up prospect s so far. His is young for his level, low GB%, more walks than strikeouts, and some real power. His body type however would seemingly put him in the Willians Astudillo mold, who is aptly has the nickname La Tortuga.

The other hitters on the rise are Groshans and Biggio with no major concerns yet. Alford and Smith are getting results, but with worrisome strikeout rates in small samples sizes.
Mylegacy - Friday, April 12 2019 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#372425) #
Mike and Shoeless in consecutive comments talking about "my precious!" Golum and I are very happy!

We lost "Tiny Tim" Collins but may we never lose Alejandro "Molina 2" "Captain" Kirk! It is going to be a thrill watching his (metaphorically and literally) "short" career. There is just something I love about short long shots.

I thought I was the only one in love with him until over the winter I saw Tamra's "Top 50" Blue Jay's Prospect list and there he was - listed at #50. I knew I was not the only fan!

As an investor I know how many fortunes can be made by investing in "shorts."
hypobole - Friday, April 12 2019 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#372428) #
Kirk #50? Even Keith Law, who everybody knows hates the Jays had him top 20. And I'm sure I read somewhere he lost 20 lbs over the winter. From a couple of Lansing looks, he's hefty, but didn't look fat, to my eyes at least.

One out he made impressed me. Got a letter high inside fastball - he pulled his hands back to drive the ball to the LF corner. Took an excellent catch at the warning track to rob him of a sure double.
bpoz - Friday, April 12 2019 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#372429) #
In the past they used the term Baseball IQ? With more analytical managing and playing it probably does not means anything anymore. Montoyo may be using this as a surprise strategy ie steal home and bunt.
Mylegacy - Friday, April 12 2019 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#372431) #
Hypo, when Kirk came into baseball he was a pitcher. A 5'9" pitcher who weighed several pounds short of a metric tonne. I thought that was very interesting.

Then, viola, he was listed as a catcher. Even veryer more interesting to my jaded mind (there is a possibility that some dictionaries have skipped the word "veryer" or had it misspelled "verryer," as some early editions of The Oxford Dictionary from the 1800's have it).

I'm sure I was in love (in a manly non-sexual way) with the little tyke long before Keith Law even knew he existed.
SK in NJ - Friday, April 12 2019 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#372433) #
I'm not concerned with Smith's K% yet since he's 22 and is just starting AA for the first time, but Alford's definitely has to be monitored. What made him such an intriguing prospect in 2017 was his ability to draw walks and not strike out much in AA, combined with plus speed and defense in CF. His K% has exploded since then. As much as I can't stand Brito on the big league roster, I don't mind Alford getting more time in AAA. Pompey being healthy would have made things so much easier.
Gerry - Friday, April 12 2019 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#372450) #
Groshans homers, his first.
dan gordon - Saturday, April 13 2019 @ 03:57 AM EDT (#372468) #
Great game Friday for Bergen to get his 1st mlb win. 2 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 5 K, against Colorado. Struck out Arenado and Story, got Blackmon to ground out.
hypobole - Saturday, April 13 2019 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#372473) #
Midwest League Batting leaderboard.

20 yr old Kirk 4th 221 wRC+
19 yr old Groshans 7th 211 wRC+
20 yr old Lopez 11th 187 wRC+

The only other 20 or under player in the top 15 is the Cards 2018 1st rounder Nolan Gorman.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, April 13 2019 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#372494) #
Comparing Gorman and Groshans as they develop will be interesting. Gorman was the consensus better talent and has obvious power, but so far Groshans seems to have a little more polish.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 13 2019 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#372508) #
I'm happy for Bergen, but I find it depressing that the Jays let him slip away for nothing. Between Jeffress and Bergen, the Jays in recent years have lost a couple of good, cheap relievers for no other reason than simple roster mismanagement.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 13 2019 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#372509) #
Here are Bauxites' comments about Bergen at the time of the Rule 5 draft:
hypobole - Saturday, April 13 2019 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#372510) #
Bichette with 3 hits and his 1st AAA hr today.
Glevin - Saturday, April 13 2019 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#372514) #
Bergen has a 91 MPH fastball. He didnít even hit 92 in his last appearance. Maybe heíll have some short term success but all this crying over a middle reliever with below average major league stuff who would get pummeled in the AL East is absurd.
dan gordon - Sunday, April 14 2019 @ 02:19 AM EDT (#372517) #
There is way, way more to "major league stuff" than the velocity of your fastball. It's called pitching, not throwing. Bergen has elite spin rates, a, good curve, a good changeup, and good command over the location of his fastball. And he's only in his 2nd real pro season. Hitters for the A.L. East teams are really THAT different from all other teams in baseball ???

greenfrog - thanks for the link to the comments after the rule 5 draft, very amusing.
dan gordon - Sunday, April 14 2019 @ 02:53 AM EDT (#372518) #
Great to see Bichette have a big game for the Bisons.

Some poor pitching performances on the farm today - Jordan Romano, Zach Jackson, Yennsy Diaz.

Look who's hitting cleanup for NH - waiver claim catcher Alberto Mineo, who had a slash line of .294/.377/.406/.783 in Dunedin, and .462/.533/.692/1.226 in a small stint in Buffalo last year, and is now is hitting .367/.387/.433/.820 this year. He's got no power, and is not exactly a prospect, but still....

Dunedin has moved Vicuna to the leadoff spot, and moved Stevenson to the #2 spot.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, April 14 2019 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#372532) #
Rank/Player/Spin Rate

#03 Thorton - 3058 rpm
#11 Sanchez - 2882 rpm
#28 Biagini - 2781 rpm
#51 Stroman - 2679 rpm
#61 Bergen - 2655 rpm
#82 Pannone - 25575 rpm

I would consider Bergen more in the good category for curveball spin rate, and Thorton, Sanchez and Biagini more in the elite territory. Bergan also has a 44.4% hard hit rate and an xwOBA of 0.308, he has been hit really hard.
hypobole - Sunday, April 14 2019 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#372549) #
Nice start for Pearson today 5 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 9K. 59 pitches - 43 strikes.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, April 14 2019 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#372554) #
Pearson pretty much has pretty much had the most dominant start to a pro career for a Jays pitcher ever. I am completely ready to bump him up to AA immediately.
bpoz - Sunday, April 14 2019 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#372559) #
I had 4 SPs in my top 10. In order SRF, Pearson, Pardhino and Zeuch.

SRF advanced AA, AAA to ML. The only positive this year is that he has stayed healthy to date.

Health is the biggest factor so far this year Borucki, Pardhino and Zeuch have not pitched yet this year. Pearson is being handled very carefully. By late May/early June the weather should be warm enough to promote him to AA or AAA or higher, given time of course at each stop. Atkins is very careful.
B Saberhagen and D Gooden were good enough to skip the minor leagues. Pearson could be except for health. Innings limit and pitch count rule his usage this year IMO.
bpoz - Sunday, April 14 2019 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#372560) #
I am 67 years old and happy about it. Great health. Thank you to all the Bauxites for having patience with me. So does Bryan Baker have a 100 mph FB like Jackson McClelland?
dan gordon - Sunday, April 14 2019 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#372561) #
Another nice game from Graham Spraker today to finish off Pearson's gem. Spraker is having a fine start in Dunedin after last year's good season in Lansing. David Paulino had a disappointing start for Buffalo today.
hypobole - Sunday, April 14 2019 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#372562) #
I'm with bpoz on holding back the Pearson promotion for exactly the reason he detailed.
greenfrog - Sunday, April 14 2019 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#372565) #
Bergen with another shutout inning today, no hits, no walks, one K, 18 pitches, 13 strikes. ERA 1.69, FIP 0.52, xFIP 1.56
Nigel - Sunday, April 14 2019 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#372566) #
While Iím with bpoz as well, Iíve sometimes wondered whether (with the elite pitching prospects) you arenít better to just get them to the majors quickly and get all the bullets out of their arm possible before it turns into a noodle. Not a very player friendly approach but there seems to be no good way of preventing injury.
uglyone - Sunday, April 14 2019 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#372570) #
If there is a legit reason to think Dunedin is better for his health I guess that might be a good idea but if not There's no other reason to keep him down there.
BlueJayWay - Monday, April 15 2019 @ 06:09 AM EDT (#372575) #
I'm also of the mind that there's only so many pitches in an arm until it's empty. I don't want a pitcher wasting too many in the minors.

Pearson it clearly too good for high A. He should be bumped up to AA soon. If he continues to dominate there then might as well go to AAA. Depending on how things go I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Toronto in September this year. If not this year it should certainly be sometime next year. 

ayjackson - Monday, April 15 2019 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#372576) #
13.2 innings at A+ doesn't seem like a very large sample. I'd be fine taking a little longer look. I think the goal should be to have him breaking ST with the Bisons next year.
hypobole - Monday, April 15 2019 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#372578) #
Pearson's 5 innings last night put him over 30 innings pitched in the Jays system in 3 years combined. Even adding in the 20 AFL innings, that's not much development time or bullets used thus far.

Would be good for me if he was promoted, because the Dunedin games aren't televised.
85bluejay - Monday, April 15 2019 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#372604) #
Given the innings limit likely on Pearson and the non-contending status of the ML team, I'd bet the farm that Pearson isn't a September call-up.
bpoz - Monday, April 15 2019 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#372618) #
Pearson does not need to be rule 5 protected. But you never know.
His short 2nd outing got we scared that he was injured again. Only 59 pitches last night in 5 IP. They are taking it easy on his arm I think.
BlueJayWay - Monday, April 15 2019 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#372626) #
Yeah I forgot Pearson was shut down most of last year, so there probably is some kind of innings limit this year. He probably reaches that before September. I still think we see Pearson with the Jays sometime next year.
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