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The first-place Twins, sporting the second best record in the major leagues - whoa. Have I stumbled into some inter-dimensional vortex?

Evidently not. The Twins have played .625 ball so far,  They've got the third best offence in the league and they're also better than the average team at keeping the other guys from scoring.  Everybody in the lineup has been hitting except the two corner infielders, and those two guys - C.J. Cron and Marwin Gonzalez - have hit before and are likely to hit again. Three starting pitchers - Perez, Berrios, and Odorizzi - have been really good, and the Jays will bump into two of those guys.


Mon 6 May - Perez (4-0, 3.41) vs Stroman (1-4, 2.2)
Tue 7 May - Berrios (5-1, 2.91) vs Sanchez (3-2, 3.09)
Wed 8 May - Gibson (2-1, 4.68) vs Thornton (0-3, 4.08)

Is Brito still on the team? When will our long national nightmare be over? For the answer to these and other questions...
Twins at Jays, 6-8 May | 84 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#373760) #
This team has been really painful to watch the last few games, I just want to see the ball in play every now and then.
hypobole - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#373761) #
Twins putting plenty in play.
scottt - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#373764) #
I really hate bad strikes calling, especially at home.
Magpie - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#373765) #
Needless to say, but Willie Mays, as great as he was, would not have hit 800 HRs if only he hadn't played so long at Candelstick Park. Over his career, Mays hit a home run every 18.9 plate appearances. He was a little better at both of his major home parks: a HR every 17.2 at the Polo Grounds, every 17.4 at Candelstick.

Of course, if he'd played for the other New York team in the NL, who know what might have happened. Mays hit 28 HRs in just 248 PAs at Ebbetts Field. That's a homer every 8.9 plate appearances (his slash line in Brooklyn was .355/.419/.786).

The Dodgers did get even with Mays when they moved into Chavez Ravine. No one could hit there. Not even Willie (.266/.373/.444).
hypobole - Monday, May 06 2019 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#373766) #
What the ump did to Drury was brutal. Good for Montoya getting tossed.
Michael - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 02:28 AM EDT (#373767) #
I only saw the condensed game, but it seemed like a mix of many things going wrong:

1. Stroman, who has been excellent, was missing the spots that were set up and the twins were killing those misses (and they didn't even seem that "bad" of misses in terms of where they were).
2. The outfield is not the best at getting good jumps, good routes, etc.
3. A lot of not great plate appearances.
4. A lot of questionable calls from the umpire.

I guess the only plus was 2 of Vlad's strike outs looking were showing good batting eye is the strike 3 was not in the strike zone.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#373768) #
At one point in the game, Stroman stared at his hand, gave a strange look and walked off the mound for 30 seconds.  I hope he's OK. 

The timing is off for many of the hitters.  I wonder if the two quick trips to the West Coast played a role.  If so, they should be back on the beam about now.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#373770) #
Mike, this may be why he was looking at his hand, from The Athletic:

After the game, Stroman said he just lacked a feel for his pitches, particularly when the ball was leaving his hand.

“Just didn’t have feel,” he said. “Arm and body feel great. It’s just one of those things, every one of my spinning pitches was up in the zone, just kind of spinning, so had no grip at the end of my delivery there."
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#373771) #
Thanks, hypobole.  I should read the Athletic before posting.  The broadcast crew did not comment on it at the time- I wonder if the radio guys did. 
hypobole - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#373772) #
From The Beaverton:

"Biggest fix: The Blue Jays might end up more likely to sell than buy, and with the trade of Kevin Pillar to the Giants earlier this season, Toronto's brass seems to be anticipating that direction. But with the arrival of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., there is a window here to replenish a vanishing species known as the Blue Jays fan. The pitching has been good, so what jumps out is the across-the-board weak rankings in the outfield. The entrenched regular there is Randal Grichuk.

Potential solution: Denard Span, free agent"

Oh, wait, no, this isn't supposed to be a joke, it's actually ESPN drek behind a paywall!
uglyone - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#373773) #
Attendance Update:

MON (2): 11376
TUE (2): 16247
WED (2): 15544
THU (1): 45048* (home opener)
FRI (3): 21356
SAT (3): 22818
SUN (3): 18389

TOT (16): 19941 (#19)

overall number goosed a bit by having the extra weekend series.
Chuck - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#373774) #
Jon Heyman, long noted shill for Scott Boras, is on the Denard Span train, apparently in a sign that he is growing his shilling operation to service other agencies as well.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#373776) #
Any chance the Jays revenues fall low enough that the Jays become a Competitive Balance pick club?
Chuck - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#373777) #
The Dodgers acquired Travis d'Arnaud and apparently intend to carry him on the MLB roster but use him at 1B and LF. If anyone understand this, please weigh in.

LA has Muncie and Freese at 1B. They have outfielders galore although Pollock is injured (surprise!). And when has d'Arnaud hit so well that his bat can forgive his presumably bad defense (at positions he hasn't played)?

Nigel - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#373778) #
I thought the competitive balance pick had a factor in it around market size, to prevent large market clubs like the Jays from ever getting one? I may be confusing this with some of the MLB revenue sharing deals.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#373779) #
Two parts, Nigel. Yes, one is 10 smallest market sizes. Other is 10 lowest revenue teams. Total will not be 20 teams though, because there will be overlap - some teams will be both.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#373780) #
Don't know how accurate this is, but from Stoeten:

"Following Monday’s game, noted member of the Jays Twitterverse, @james_in_TO, pointed out something incredible: “in the last 3 seasons there have been 1516 batter seasons where the batter saw at least 150 pitches,” he tweeted. “Vlad Jr ranks 1516th for % pitches seen over the heart of the plate at 14.3% (23 of 161 after tonight) – the next lowest is 17.5%.”

and this easily verifiable nugget:

according to Fangraphs, heading into Monday Vlad had seen the lowest percentage of pitches in the strike zone this season (33.3 per cent) of anyone in baseball with at least 30 plate appearances.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#373781) #
And pitchers have done a little better than square on the shadow of the zone against Guerrero Jr.  Usually if a pitcher regularly avoids the zone against a hitter, he gets less of the shadow.

I'm not worried.
Nigel - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#373782) #
Thanks hypobole.
Dewey - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#373783) #
On May 25, 1951, after 35 games with the Minneapolis Millers (American Association, AAA), Willie Mays (age 20) was called up to the NY Giants. He was hitting .477 (8 homers). He went 0 for his first 14 at-bats in the majors. He hit his first homer (off Warren Spahn) on the 28th, and then gradually got himself settled in. So much so that he was Rookie of the Year in the NL.

Vlad-watchers might take some solace in this.
JohnL - Tuesday, May 07 2019 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#373785) #
Re: Willie & Vlad

Mays lacked Vlad’s confidence at first, and didn’t think he was ready for the majors, and told manager Leo Durocher he wasn’t coming.

(In respect for Durocher’s “eloquence”, I won’t use asterisks for any of his vocabulary.)

Durocher asked Mays what he was hitting. Mays said .477.

“Well,” said Durocher, “do you think you could hit two fucking-fifty-five for me?”

After his 0-for-12, he finally got his first hit off some guy named Spahn. In Leo’s immortal words, “I never saw a fucking ball leave a fucking park so fucking fast in my fucking life.”

A fine inspiration for Vlad… I hope.
bpoz - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#373794) #
I loved reading your post. Very descriptive. Thanks JohnL.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#373796) #
Sanchez' ERA went up after last night's game, but it was one of his best games of the year. Seven innings, 99 pitches and 64 strikes tells you all you need to know. He walked three, which is more than you would want, but he can be effective at that rate. 

Berrios was awfully good, and a pleasure to watch.  Constantly in and around the zone with good pitches, and an athlete to boot. He turns 25 this month, and it looks to me like he's got a good shot to be the best pitcher in baseball over the next decade (with the usual caveat about arm health). 
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#373798) #
And Berrios was terrible for multiple stretches the past few years until he put it all together.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#373799) #
Don't look now, but Ken Giles has the 7th best xwOBA in the majors, with a few questionable lads in front of him such as Sam Gavigilo. He also has the 7th best WAR and 12th best K/9 amongst relievers. At this point he is setting himself up at the best reliever available at the trade deadline.
dan gordon - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#373813) #
Yes, Giles is one of the best relievers in baseball. That's why I'd like to keep him. If you trade him, you're just creating one more hole to try and fill somewhere else, like a game of whack-a-mole. They'll need a closer when they are hopefully competitive in 2020/21/22. If they trade Giles, who's that going to be? I see nobody in the organization who's likely to fill that role, so you'd just end up having to trade for somebody.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#373814) #
Pat Murphy?
Magpie - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#373815) #
Let's see... the kid breaks off his 0-12 in his last AB last night. So he gets today off and Socrates Brito is in right field.

This is going to work. Guaranteed.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#373816) #
This is going to work. Guaranteed.

Oooh!  Guaranteed win night.  What do I get if the Jays lose- free tickets to a Yankee game or an Ace plush toy?
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#373818) #
I think Hector Perez, David Paulino and Sean Reid-Foley have closer stuff and are looking like questionable starters at this point.
scottt - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#373822) #
On the bright side, Guerrero will be rested and focused to go after the Pale Hose pitching which isn't that great. Hopefully.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#373823) #
The way our hitting has been recently, Brito will fit right in.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#373824) #
"What do I get if the Jays lose- free tickets to a Yankee game or an Ace plush toy?"

It used to be cuttlefish.

Until I won and never got my cuttlefish.

Suddenly, cuttlefish became lost in the mists of time.

I'm less bitter than I used to be.
Nigel - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#373826) #
The way our hitting has been recently? I'm not sure of the "recently" qualifier there:) Sub .300 team OBPs are earned not gifted - you have to have Brito in there to make it work.
dan gordon - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#373827) #
This batting order looks really bad tonight. Could be shutout #3 in a row. Of course, they'll probably go out and score a dozen. On TSN, I heard them say the Jays want Vladdy to have 48 hours of rest, so he gets the day off before a scheduled off day. I don't get it. Unless he's still hurt.

I agree that guys like Paulino, Perez, & Reid-Foley have the potential to possibly become a closer at some point. Potential is a long way from actually doing it, though. They all have serious issues, particularly throwing strikes. I certainly wouldn't be banking on one of them to make it. Last I looked, they were all struggling badly.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#373831) #
Sarcastic Cuttlefish.  Could be the name of a punk band.

It would be nice if Sam Gaviglio entered the game with less than a 5 run deficit.  His leverage so far this season is 0.25 and it is about to go down.
bpoz - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#373832) #
I need to hear the lecture!!! You are not as bad as you are when in a slump or as good as you are when on a hot streak.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#373833) #
Hoo boy this is a shameful roster.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#373835) #
This batting order looks really bad tonight.

Must be one of those days that ends in a 'y'.
Nigel - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#373836) #
I do understand the frustration but this is what 90 loss or more rosters perform like. It just is.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#373837) #
But, Nigel,the Twins seem to have built a very good team and they didn't lose more than 90 games, except for 3 years ago, 5 years ago, 6 years ago, 7 years ago and 8 years ago.
Nigel - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#373838) #
Hypobole-I’m not sure what your point is or your objection to what I said. My point was simply that bad teams often play badly, it’s just the nature of the beast - nothing more nothing less.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#373839) #
Nigel, first, I agree with your post 100%.

My post was attempt at humour, while also pointing out the Twins became good by being very bad, though I certainly hope our rebuild doesn't last nearly as long as theirs.

To further the point, most good teams now have suffered through "shameful" 90+ loss rosters to help them get to where they are now.
Mike D - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#373840) #
I am proud to play my small part in this year's attendance decline.
Nigel - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#373841) #
Ah, got it. I guess I’m more agnostic about the causal connection between historical 90 loss seasons (or whatever your mark of ineptitude is) and future success. The nature of success cycles certainly make your point true but I don’t see the draft advantage of finishing in the bottom 5-10 teams as being nearly as pronounced in baseball as it is in the NHL or the NBA. In my view, payroll is the name of the game and not a lot else matters over the long term.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#373842) #
Just assume that hypobole's posts are always a passive aggressive shot at me. That's always the safe bet.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#373844) #
Nigel - agreed on that. Sucking in baseball helps for getting top picks but the spread from pick #5 to #25 isn't anywhere near what it is in other sports.

Pick #5 has just 2 guys over 50 WAR (possible HOF in Dwight Gooden and Mark Teixeira) none over 60. 4 more in the 40's, and 2 in the 20's. A total of 12 with 10+ (just 4 in the 10's).

Pick #15 has 1 over 60 (Chase Utley), a high 40's (Jim Rice), 2 in the 30's, 1 in the 20's, 3 in the 10's. So 8 with 10+. Not as good as #5 but a higher peak with a HOF'er and another near HOF.

#25 has an all-timer in Mike Trout (66.9 WAR so far), a 40's in Chuck Knoblauch, 1 more over 20, and 3 in the 10's. So 6 for 10+

#35 sees 2 50's in Johnny Damon, and Mark Langston, plus 1 in the 20's. Wow, did that drop.

By pick #45 we see just 2 with 10+ WAR - neither cracking 20.

So clearly while lower picks can get better players (Trout for example) the higher the pick the more likely you are to get a solid ML'er (10 WAR = Rickey Romero). On the current team we see Smoak at 7.5, Stroman at 11.3, Sanchez 9.8, Shoemaker 7.0, Buchholz 17.8, Giles 6.2 - checking the guys with the most success. None have 20 yet, just 2 with 10+ so getting to 10+ is a big deal. Of course, Roger Clemens did that in just his first season here (damn he was good then). 20 is hard. Just 28 hitters reached 10+ WAR as a Jay, 13 got to 20. Just 20 pitchers got to 10, 7 to 20 (including Clemens in just 2 years). Dave Stieb is the only player (pitcher or hitter) to get to 50 as a Jay. So the standard I used here was quite high but when drafting you aren't after the Justin Smoak types, you want the John Olerud (3rd round, 50+ WAR lifetime) type who are near impossible to get once they reach the majors.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#373845) #
I've come to the belief that this rebuild will not be a Yankee type rebuild with "compete" teams in 2020 and 2021 like everyone says including Atkins. This rebuild will take 3, 4 or maybe 5 will be 2021 (two years away) when we have a roster full of prospects and at that point we will see how far away they are from better hope they stock pile more talent in the minors than the other teams because free agency isn't gonna produce the missing pieces on the future teams.

Not very optimistic of Shapiro and Atkins anymore just from seeing what they've done this past season compared to other front offices around the league both in competition and rebuild.

I think they're style is "balanced" all across the diamond but the problem is they are balanced with bad players and have no good players just one guy who may project out to be good. What's the term when there's so much crap that the good stuff gets smothered? That might apply here.

If Shapiro is so good at player development then send him to Buffalo where he can develop players BEFORE they come to the big leagues. I think I want my money back.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#373846) #
Ugly your post is the only one coming off as passive aggressive. I think Hypo has dry/dark humour, if you think he's slighting you you can ask like Nigel did rather than responding with a passive aggressive message yourself...
hypobole - Wednesday, May 08 2019 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#373847) #
Not always,uo you're not the person owes me the cuttlefish.:)

Yeah this team is awful, but as Nigel pointed out, this is what teardown rebuilds look like. This team has had more rookie games played this year than any other team in baseball - 130 going into tonight and the most by a Jays team since 1977.

Maybe some guys make to contention, most won't, but this is time to find out. Nothing shameful.
scottt - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 06:59 AM EDT (#373848) #
Baseball is streaky. Players get hot and cold.
Most prospects don't become good players.
This team hasn't developed a position player during the AA tenure.
Now they have a whole bunch coming up and it's not going to be instant success.

bWAR for position player:
Sogard 1.1 (not sustainable)
Grichuk 0.6 (on pace for a 3 WAR season)
Galvis 0.5 (we should be happy if get 2 WAR)
Smoak 0.4
Urena 0.4
Drury 0.1 (still not sure if there's something here)
Tellez 0.1
Guerrero 0 (can only go up)
McKinney -0.1
Hernandez -0.2
Gurriel -0.3
Jansen -0.4

It is clearly the rookies dragging the team down and there's another wave in Buffalo.
I feel the same about Urena as I felt about Smith Jr. Just leave the guy up until he struggles.
Then he'll have something to work on in AAA and if that doesn't happen, where's the problem?

Mike Green - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#373849) #
From the Batter's Box Daily, May 9, 2019:


Mike Green - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#373850) #
Also from the article:

Socrates Brito contemplated the arc of baseballs close by as they passed by his moving bat and far over his head in right field last night.  He decided that he wished to pursue a career in mathematics and will be changing his name to Archimedes.  Baseball Savant has expressed an interest in his services.

And for our readers, the choice of prizes due to the unfortunate result last night:
Image result for cuttlefish


(Sorry, Ace Plush toys are all sold out)
Mike Green - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#373851) #
Ack. Another try at the cuttlefish:
hypobole - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#373853) #
Despite this brutal stretch of baseball, there are positives, if one cares to look.

Stroman is Stroman. Meeting expectations.
Sanchez is healthy.
Thornton exceeding expectations.
Giles has been terrific.
Gaviglio been good as the long requested (here) long man.
Luciano exceeding expectations.

Jansen/Maille have been really good defensively. Of the 63 catchers with 40+ innings at FG, both are top 10.
Rowdy - solid LD rate. Exceeding expectations vs LHP in limited exposure.
Smoak - Career best OBP.
Sogard/Galvis/Drury - all solid IF defense.
bpoz - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#373854) #
Thanks for the early report card hypobole.

IMO we should consider not giving Atkins a grade yet. He is working on a long term project.
bpoz - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#373855) #
Gaviglio has pitched some 2 & 3 inning games and 1 4 inning game. That has value as a way of making the pen "deeper".

I can see Panonne also becoming a similar long reliever.

Neither I believe are being successful by being "throw it as hard as you can" for 1 or 2 innings type pitchers. But I don't know.

We do have some of our college draft picks succeeding as SPs. Z Logue in NH. Quite a few in A+ and A.they could become effective long relievers.

How valuable would that make our pen with 4 such relievers? Every season is a marathon. Pitching staffs fall apart.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#373856) #
What I hope to see more of soon:
- Danny Jansen: Luke Maile is a fine back-up catcher but Jansen needs to play almost every day and work on his hitting
- Cavan Biggio
- Jonathan Davis
Mike Green - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#373857) #
Just after I posted that, Jonathan Davis led off the game with a home run.  I guess he really wants Socrates Brito's job.
uglyone - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#373858) #
dalimon i'm pretty sure my post was just plain aggressive.
Nigel - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#373859) #
That’s what I’d like to see too Mike. My current view is that the OF is where most of the near term questions are (there are other questions/problems like the pitching staff for which there aren’t any near term solutions). The team has one major league OF. All of Hernandez, McKinney, Davis, Alford, Gurriel and Biggio (Pompey if he can ever get healthy) might have some future role in the OF. I’d like the team to spend 2019 in Toronto and Buffalo trying to figure that out. Dump Brito. Get Gurriel playing every day in the OF. Get Davis and Biggio up and into the OF rotation (unless they commit to Biggio as a 2B). I fear none of them are more than 4th OFs but let’s find out.
Gerry - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#373860) #
Pannone has been optioned down to Buffalo.
pubster - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#373861) #
Will Vlad Guerrero be the first player to ask management if he can go back to AAA?
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#373862) #
This is Year 4 of the current regime. Toss out the first two years and this makes Year 2.
uglyone - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#373863) #

2019: 11
2015: 14
2009: 31

So Ricciardi inherited an awful attendance situation and steadily improved it year after year, until his 2009 when it all fell apart, and he was immediately replaced.

similarly, Anthopolous inherited an awful attendance situation and steadily improved it year after year, until he was unceremoniously dumped due to spending too much of Rogers money on payroll.

Uniquely under Rogers, Shapiro is the first one to inherit an awesome attendance situation, and the first one to oversee a steady year after year decline in attendance. He's managed to oversee a plummet from an elite attendance situation to one of the worst in franchise history, in just 4yrs.

This is an interesting test for Rogers - never before have they shown faith in an FO after experiencing either steep drop in attendance or a steep spike in payroll.
uglyone - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#373864) #

2019: 11 sub-20k (61%), 6 sub-15k (33%)
2018: 9 sub-20k (11%), 0 sub-15k (0%)
2017: 0 sub-20k (0%), 0 sub-15k (0%)
2016: 0 sub-20k (0%), 0 sub-15k (0%)
2015: 14 sub-20k (17%), 2 sub-15k (3%)
2014: 25 sub-20k (31%), 6 sub-15k (7%)
2013: 9 sub-20k(11%), 0 sub-15k (0%)
2012: 26 sub-20k (32%), 7 sub-15k (9%)
2011: 43 sub-20k (53%), 16 sub-15k (20%)
2010: 50 sub-20k (62%), 29 sub-15k (36%)
2009: 31 sub-20k (38%), 9 sub-15k (11%)
2008: 6 sub-20k (7%), 0 sub-15k (0%)
2007: 5 sub-20k (6%), 0 sub-15k (0%)
2006: 14 sub-20k (17%), 0 sub-15k (0%)
2005: 16 sub-20k (20%), 1 sub-15k (1%)
2004: 36 sub-20k (44%), 10 sub-15k (12%)
2003: 35 sub-20k (43%), 11 sub-15k (14%)
2002: 43 sub-20k (53%), 16 sub-15k (20%)

So Ricciardi inherited an awful attendance situation and steadily improved it year after year, until his 2009 when it all fell apart, and he was immediately replaced.

similarly, Anthopolous inherited an awful attendance situation and steadily improved it year after year, until he was unceremoniously dumped due to spending too much of Rogers money on payroll.

Uniquely under Rogers, Shapiro is the first one to inherit an awesome attendance situation, and the first one to oversee a steady year after year decline in attendance. He's managed to oversee a plummet from an elite attendance situation to one of the worst in franchise history, in just 4yrs.

This is an interesting test for Rogers - never before have they shown faith in an FO after experiencing either steep drop in attendance or a steep spike in payroll.
hypobole - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#373867) #
Joey Gallo becomes the 1st player ever to hit 100 home runs before hitting 100 singles - he's at 93. Russell Branyan, the next closest, already had 172 singles by the time he hit his 100th HR.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#373868) #
Davis walked three times after his homer.  He's now got a 16/13 W/K as well as 4 homers and 4 doubles in 65 PAs.  He'll be 27 on Monday, so there's no time like the present to find out if he can play. He is really the only centerfielder who is ready, and I'd give him regular work . That way you can move Grichuk back to right field where he is a defensive asset, and platoon McKinney and Teoscar in left.  
christaylor - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#373869) #
IIRC the JP era saw a large number of discounts (e.g. toonie Tuesday) and cut ratrate flex-packs. When AA took over and
with Beeston that culture was changed. The team on the field is a major factor but within the JP era there seemed to be a culture of "cheap entertainment". Perhaps, I'm overstating it but that jumps out as a memory.
JohnL - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#373871) #
christaylor’s memory of ticket discounting matches mine. I believe the story was the Jays also counted freebies in attendance, contrary to MLB policy. It was Beeston who changed that, which explains the attendance drop starting in 2009.
bpoz - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#373873) #
Thank guys on explaining how the attendance numbers are unreliable.
scottt - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#373876) #
Someone will come up to fill Pannone's spot on the roster.

Normally, I'd assume it's a pitcher, but it's a weekend home series, so they don't need a pitcher right away.
There's no pitcher on the 40 who is ready to come up at the moment, however, they can move Shoemaker to the 60 IL to create a spot.

Maybe that old lefty who throws a knuckler?  Ryan Feierabend is 33, so even I will agree that he's old for AAA. .
hypobole - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#373883) #
Much of the board seems a bit shell-shocked about Vladdy's start - Brito seems to be trending with the fanbase more than Vlad.

But Craig Edwards at FG isn't worried. Quick summary - if Vlad's still struggling after 600 PA's, then worry.
John Northey - Thursday, May 09 2019 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#373884) #
So far Vlad has 41 PA and has hit 162/244/189.

In Barry Bonds first season (1986) he had a 38 PA stretch in games 24-32 where he hit 176/263/265 and shortly after a 53 PA stretch going 122/170/245 (games 41-52). In fact his whole season totals for age 21 was 223/330/416. Sure didn't look like a future super-star of super-stars then. His first real WOW season was at 25 (170 OPS+, MVP) In fact from 1989-1993 he hit 310/433/595 for a 185 OPS+ (just pre-steroid era, and he was 100% clean then according to pretty much everyone).

So a slow start isn't a killer by any stretch. Heck, at 20 Bonds was in A ball hitting 299/383/547 which Vlad slaughtered at 19 in AA/AAA 381/437/636 so I wouldn't worry just yet. Heck Vlad was in A/A+ at 18 323/425/485 so he is well ahead of Bonds and if he can produce anywhere near Bonds I'll be super-happy even if he sucks this year and ends up around a 100 OPS+ in the end.

Last Jays prospect I can think of who came up full time at 20 was Lloyd Moseby in 1980 who hit 229/281/365 73 OPS+ as a rookie. From 83-88 he hit 272/353/444 114 OPS+ in CF with 2 years of WAR of 6+ (83/84 ages 23/24) but was done at age 31 in Detroit (2 years there after his Jays career ended).

Guys who reach at 20 generally are killer talents but it takes time to adjust to the majors. A-Rod was up at 18 and had a 16 OPS+ then, at 20 should've won the MVP with a 358/414/631 line at SS 9.4 WAR overall but drunken writers gave it to Juan Gonzalez (3.8 WAR) who had a lower OPS while being mediocre in RF but drove in 144 vs A-Rod's 123. Pretty stupid voting. What is funny is A-Rod was 2nd for WAR to Ken Griffey Jr who came in 4th with his 9.7 while being a Gold Glove in CF. So glad voters are much more intelligent now than then.
uglyone - Friday, May 10 2019 @ 12:35 AM EDT (#373885) #
There is no reason to think anything at all about 41pa.
hypobole - Friday, May 10 2019 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#373886) #
Uo, right, but a lot of people are thinking everything from overhyped to hitting coach has already ruined him.
uglyone - Friday, May 10 2019 @ 12:57 AM EDT (#373887) #
Yeah I stopped reading and listening to Toronto sports media over a decade ago. I don't think I've missed much.
scottt - Friday, May 10 2019 @ 06:41 AM EDT (#373895) #
Guerrero is getting lots of pitches on the corners and most of them are called strikes.
It's still early to make an adjustment,  the coming series should be interesting for him.
At some point, he might need to learn to foul pitches that are too close to take, something that he didn't need in the minors. I'm not worried at all. Unlike Brito, he has a very nice swing.

I guess they could also move Phelps to the 60DL, so there's no real crunch yet.

Nigel - Friday, May 10 2019 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#373900) #
Bad teams don’t have 40 man roster “crunch” problems - in order to be a bad team your 40 man roster must be filled with bad players. You may have a hoarding problem but that’s a separate issue.
uglyone - Friday, May 10 2019 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#373902) #

Now that sounds about right.
Mike Green - Friday, May 10 2019 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#373906) #
Hoarding got me thinking about wheat and chaff.  And Hector Perez.  After 6 starts, opposing batters have a BABIP of .509 against Perez.  In the result, he has an ERA of over 8, with FIP and xFIP of 4 or under.  He's struck out 28% of 108 batters faced, walked 16% of them, and given up more line drives and fewer pop-ups than usual.  Still, to end up with a BABIP of .509, you've got to have a lot of ground balls going through. 

He's always had control issues and will be turning 23 next month.  He's still a lottery ticket, I guess.  The odds are better than 6/49, but more than that, one cannot say.
bpoz - Friday, May 10 2019 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#373907) #
Many well defined words being used. Bad team, hoarders and 40 man crunch due to the strategy of hoarding players that are evaluated as bad. So it looks like the strategy is successful.

A Hanson qualifies in the above category. His 43 ABs was not a long enough trial compared to 150 ABs. However this trial had the success of him passing through waivers (DFA). If he stays with the Jays there is opportunity for potential value.
Gerry - Friday, May 10 2019 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#373910) #
Reports suggest Clay Buchholz will not start tonight due to an "elbow issue". Daniel Hudson will be the opener.

I assume then that a pitcher will be up to replace Pannone.
Nigel - Friday, May 10 2019 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#373911) #
The quality of Perez’s FB will buy him time and opportunity-and I’m in favour of lottery ticket prospects-but I like your 649 odds better. There just hasn’t ever been any sign of progress from Perez on his control issues.
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