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The Jays have been around since 1977 so they have had a lot of drafts. Which is the strongest and which the weakest? Lets see if we can tell.

First a simple table with some key information - 10+ WAR is what I hope for out of a draft (IE: Ricky Romero level who was a 9.9 WAR player in the end) vs getting decent backups (sub 10 guys) or filler.

Year# DraftedReached MajorsWARWAR per reached10+ WAR Top 10 Rounds Signed

A few things are clear. 20 times the Jays failed to get a 10+ WAR player out of a draft with 2012 being the most recent with a 10+'er (Stroman). Just 5 times the Jays have drafted a 50+ WAR guy - Halladay, Olerud, Stieb, Kent, David Wells are the guys (in descending order). Jimmy Key is the only guy in the 40's, 6 guys in the 30's (counting Orlando Hudson only once - he was drafted by the Jays twice) - these are Barfield, Shawn Green, Chris Carpenter, Hentgen, Hudson, and Woody Williams. 20's were drafted 10 times but 3 didn't sign (rounds 11, 17, and 23). For 20+ WAR guys who signed we see a total of 19 players or about one every other year (figuring the past few years couldn't have produced one yet). Of those 8 were in the first round (two were top 10 picks), 6 more in round 2-5, then one each for rounds 7 (Casey Blake), 9 (Barfield), 20 (Kent), 28 (Williams), and 43 (Hudson).

Highest pick ever was #2 overall - 3 times. 2 never reached the other was Lloyd Moseby.

12 times the Jays had a top 10 pick, all but one signed (Phil Bickford) - 77.6 WAR between those who did sign but Vernon Wells and Moseby were the only ones over 10 WAR (both in the 20's). 3 didn't make the majors, and 2 were negative WAR players (Matt Stark, Jeff Hoffman).

Lowest WAR ever is -2.9 from Drew Butera - a catcher drafted in 2002. He has played for 5 ML teams (not the Jays), and is still playing (Colorado). He didn't sign here. Phew.
Lowest WAR for a guy who did sign is Mike Johnson - a RHP from the 1993 draft. Mostly for Montreal. Funny thing is his only positive WAR season was his last at age 25. A 0.1 WAR season over 11 1/3 IP. He kept trying through his age 28 season. I think he then became a pitching coach.

Best by Rounds
  • 1-10: Roy Halladay (duh) - everyone with 10+ WAR drafted in round 1 did sign here.
  • #2: David Wells, #3 Olerud, #4 Casey Jansen (quite the drop), #5 Dave Stieb, #6 Matt Boyd (dang it), #7 Casey Blake, #8 Graveman, #9 Barfield, #10 Yan Gomes.
  • 11-19: Ted Lilly (Didn't Sign), Kris Bryant (Didn't sign...dang it), then Yan Gomes (12.1 and given away). Next is Doug Mientkiewicz who also didn't sign. Lots of regrets for the Jays on the signing side in this group
  • 20-29: Jeff Kent (55.9 and may get into the HOF someday), with Woody Williams also here (30+)
  • 30-39: Hudson (didn't sign that year), Jim Abbott (didn't sign), Kevin Pillar (did sign)
  • 40-49: Hudson signed here, Scott Erikson didn't (20+). Of the guys who reached the majors just 3 signed here, and 10 didn't. Lots of 'what the heck, he is good' drafting here.
  • 50+: Chris Woodward the best that did sign (1.1), best who didn't was Chad Qualls (5.9). Only 2 signed, 9 didn't of the 11 who reached.

1980 the nightmare draft with no one reaching. That draft saw Darryl Strawberry go just before the Jays pick, next best in round 1 was Kelly Gruber. Jays had the #2 overall pick that year and blew it. Round 2 saw 3 more 10+ WAR guys, and round 3 had a 20 WAR in Danny Tartabull. Sigh. Next worst is probably 2014 so far - one of only 2 drafts with a negative WAR (other is 2002) but hopefully Sean Reid-Foley can get back here and change that. Jeff Hoffman should've been a lot better but has a 7.29 ERA in his 4 starts this year and a 7.57 in AAA. Not promising.

Best draft? By # who reached you get a few at 13 1987, 2009, 2011. By WAR the best easily is 1989 at 122.8 (Olerud/Kent) 1995 was the only other 100+ year (Halladay, Ted Lilly who DNS) while 1997 came close (98 WAR thanks to Hudson/Wells/Michael Young). Average WAR goes to 1978 (Moseby/Stieb and 2 scrubs). For getting 10+ WAR out of guys the best is 3 in a single draft done many times - 1982, 1987, 1988, 1991, 1997, 2009, 2010. 2016 has a few 'wow' prospects in Biggio, Bichette, and T.J. Zeuch but nothing yet to show for it beyond a 0.1 WAR from Biggio so far. Probably 5+ years until we know for sure on that one.

Tons more I could dig into, but the key thing to note is how quality shows up anywhere in the draft, and generally the Jays have done well at signing those they do draft, but have a few very notable misses who generally were later picks (probably attempts to get guys with tons of talent to sign if they were really, really wanting to go pro but kept it hidden to try to get a better deal ala Tellez).

Also worth looking at is GM performance...

DraftsGMPlayers DraftedReached MajorsWARWAR per reached10+ WAR Top 10 Signed/YearReach/Year10+ WAR/YearWAR/Year

A lot harder to measure this. Atkins obviously is too soon to judge anything. AA still has kids in the minors and others who are just starting their careers. The other guys are pretty much done - a few JPR's might still be kicking but not many (he did a terrible job). Clearly Ash was very good at this one part of the job (the only part he excelled in). To be honest the biggest surprise is seeing how Gillick, despite his many lousy first round picks (skipping on Dwight Gooden, Roger Clemens, among others to draft guys who never reached) I am surprised to see he kept an average of 1.3 10+ WAR guys per year. In fact, if I go to 3 decimals Gillick is #1 with 1.294 per year vs Ash at 1.286. Both JPR and Gillick have a near miss for the 10+ guys in Romero (9.9 for JPR) and Glenallen Hill (9.7 for Gillick). So which GM drafted best? I'd go with Gillick as he did it for so long. AA might look better in a few years as his guys build up career stats and a few more sneak in for cups of coffee in the majors.
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Glevin - Sunday, June 09 2019 @ 05:43 AM EDT (#375288) #
Drafts are very difficult to compare because there are so many variables. Also, there are a lot of steep drop-offs so a #4 pick and a #15 pick have very different expectations. Also, after a few rounds, the guys aren't much of prospects. Also, how much credit would you give a GM for getting someone in round 30 who turned out good? It's pretty much a crapshoot then. I think best way to measure would be expected WAR based on picks versus actual WAR but I don't think there's any substitute for going through the drafts individually and looking at them. Neither AA nor Ricciardi nor Ash drafted very well IMO.
scottt - Sunday, June 09 2019 @ 06:39 AM EDT (#375290) #
Who's Atikins?
hypobole - Sunday, June 09 2019 @ 07:08 AM EDT (#375291) #
People always talk about GM's drafts. GM's don't draft, scouting directors do. GM's do have veto power. Many GM's do have a say in high picks, with JPR's Romero over Tulo maybe the most infamous from our perspective. Some give general guidelines and have final say on strategies, some simply trust their scouting director. Almost needless to say GM's do choose their scouting directors.
bpoz - Sunday, June 09 2019 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#375296) #
None of you are worried it seems that we would fail to sign our round 4-10 picks as they are not protected. If unsigned the team loses the bonus allotment. I however was very worried because there is talk that #5 Tanner Morris and #9 Philip Clarke could be over slot.

I am happy that Alek Monoah signed. For slot rather than over.

Any #4-10 unsigned would be a major mistake IMO. Someone would have failed in their responsibility. This is a very clear cut rule.

I can see #2 Kendall Williams being unsigned because he may make an over slot demand.

#3 Dasan Brown IMO was chosen for a discount. He is very raw.

The #2 and #3 picks if unsigned don't give you any more usable budget for this draft. But you still have the extra 5% bonus top up.

For reasons of easy math 5% of a $10 mil pool is $500,000. But if the $2 mil for rounds 2 & 3 is not used the 5% becomes $ 400,000. So what is the correct 5% number?
Next years $10 mil becomes $12 mil bonus pool and the 5% is $600,000. This seems too easy a way to get extra $.

Parts of the above exercise set my mind at ease.

ayjackson - Sunday, June 09 2019 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#375300) #
Nice jinx, bpoz.

Jim Callis is reporting that Williams has signed for slot.
bpoz - Sunday, June 09 2019 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#375302) #
Positive jinx?

Keep the info on done deals coming. Thanks.

A few days left to use it or lose it on our extra Int'l bonus money.

When Vlad was signed similar deals were made to reduce the penalty from 2 years to 1 year. O Martinez signed for $3.5 mil I am quite sure. Vlad for $3.9 mil but maybe $4.9 mil. I could be wrong. Am I?

ayjackson - Sunday, June 09 2019 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#375303) #
"Positive jinx?"

We'll have to wait 10 years for another Northey Draft History review.
John Northey - Sunday, June 09 2019 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#375319) #
I thought about doing it by scouting director. BR has them listed. Tried hunting who it was for 1977-1990 but couldn't find out who was doing it then so I grouped those years under 'unknown'. Listed in order they worked here.

DraftsScout DirectorPlayers DraftedReached MajorsWARWAR per reached10+ WAR Top 10 Signed/YearReach/Year10+ WAR/YearWAR/Year
5Bob Engle29739246.86.3897.81.649.4
5Tim Wilken27130221.27.379.661.444.2
3Chris Buckley1502247.72.12107.30.66715.9
6Jon Lalonde2804492.
3Andrew Tinnish15532108.53.36910.7236.2
4Brian Parker1621611.80.709.8403
2Steve Sanders8100--010.5000

Tinnish was damn impressive. 2 10+ WAR guys a year, 10.7 players drafted who'd get to the majors each y ear. His WAR/Year is low but there are many still out there. Glad he is still around. Unfortunately 2 of those 10+ WAR guys didn't sign (Bryant and Nola) while Syndergaard did his work all for the Mets. I think many here were hoping he'd find a way to sign Bryant and in retrospect the Jays should've done whatever it took to get him. Ah well - spilt milk and all that.
John Northey - Sunday, June 09 2019 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#375321) #
For those wondering...Tinnish for just guys who signed...
24 signed who reached, 64.4 WAR, 10+'ers are Stroman, Pillar, Sanchez, Syndergaard. That puts him just below the pace of Wilken for 10+ WAR per year guys with 21.4 WAR/Year so far and 8 reaching per year. Still very good and leading in Reach/Year with more likely to reach for cups of coffee the next few years.
bpoz - Sunday, June 09 2019 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#375322) #
Tinnish is handling the Latin market for the Jays I believe. So kirk, Pardhino and G Moreno so far.

About 4 DSL hitters did V well last year. This years DSL is unimpressive at first glance.
Mylegacy - Sunday, June 09 2019 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#375327) #
Our pitching in the minors is mostly icky. (Look up 'icky' in "The Professional Baseball Scouts Guide to Alternate Insulting Words." or TPBSGTAIW for short)

The SIGNING of Manoah and Williams was absolutely, positively necessary. Mission accomplished!

We now have, (IM{H}O), five starting pitching prospects that pass the "meh" level and enter the "Is he is, or is he ain't a real pitcher" (See pg. 54 of the TPBSGTAIW for detailed explanation) level of excellence.

Interestingly, it looks like we've two, Pearson (22) and Manoah (21), who look to be ready by mid 2020. Health and normal development permitting.

Then we've got three 18 years old(ish) guys: Pardhino, Williams and Kloffensten who look to be ready 2023 or later.

Four of the five are physical monsters, 6'5" or more, The exception, and one of the most intriguing, is Pardhino who is 5' 10" 155.
John Northey - Sunday, June 09 2019 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#375338) #
FYI: Atikins is how BR listed Atkins so I just went with it. Seems they have fixed it now (I copy/pasted at the time). I'm adjusting the article to reflect that. Thought something was off but just shrugged my shoulders as I figured they'd be correct.
Glevin - Monday, June 10 2019 @ 03:06 AM EDT (#375341) #
From 2010-2012, the Jays had 20 top-100 hundred picks which is 7 a year. Every other year, since the compensation loophole was closed it's been 2-4. 2016-2019, the Jays have had 13 top-100 picks. That's an extra year of drafting with 7 fewer top-100 picks. 2010-2012, the Jays had 9 top-50 picks. In 2016-2019, the Jays have had 5. That's the equivalent of the Jays getting an extra top-50 pick every year. AA did a great job of accumulating picks but that is a separate thing from drafting and the drafting during the period was generally very bad when you consider in the 6 years of drafting, they had the equivalent of around 8 or 9 years of top draft picks.
Dewey - Monday, June 10 2019 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#375363) #
I was wondering about our first GM as well, Mr. Bavasti.
mendocino - Monday, June 10 2019 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#375378) #
20 picks signed

2 Williams, Kendall $1.55m Pick Value: $1.40m
5 Morris, Tanner $ 400k Pick Value: $367.90k
6 Eden, Cameron $ Pick Value: $279.50k
7 Talley, L.J. $ 22.5k Pick Value: $218.50k
8 Camacho, Angel $ 2.5k Pick Value: $175.00k
12 Ryan, Sam $
13 Schwecke, Trevor $
14 Rivera, Eric $
15 Dominguez, Michael $
17 DiCesare, Jared $
20 Robbins, Jimmy $
22 Fraze, Nick $
23 Tolhurst, Anders $
24 Horwitz, Spencer $
28 Ponce, Gabriel $
31 Sanderson, Blake $
34 Quinones, Luis $
36 Bradley, Scotty $
37 McInvale, Andrew $
38 Sloniger, Ryan $

UFA Huckaby, Kyle LHP
PeterG - Monday, June 10 2019 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#375382) #
#10 Glenn Santiago also signed.
mendocino - Monday, June 10 2019 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#375385) #
6R Eden $ 222,500
15R Dominguez $197,500
mendocino - Monday, June 10 2019 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#375386) #
Good find PeterG

10th-rd @MLBDraft pick Glenn Santiago signs w/@bluejays for $172.5K (pick 297 value = $145.5K). Very good defensive SS from Puerto Rico. Bat will have to catch up.

.@BlueJays sign 15th-rd pick Michael Dominguez in @MLBDraft for $197.5K ($72.5K counts vs bonus pool). Underisded and athletic RHP signed away from @FSUBaseball commitment.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 11 2019 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#375424) #
OK, Bavasti is on me 100% - I've always added a t to his name for some reason, lord knows why but I seem determined that is how you spell it. Guess I need to get an editor or something.
aarne13 - Wednesday, June 12 2019 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#375460) #
Brock Badgers (OUA) Pitcher Alex Nolan signs with the Jays.
bpoz - Thursday, June 13 2019 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#375511) #
Will Robertson signs for $70K under slot. Only Dasan Brown and Round 9 Philip Clarke not signed.

I think D Brown will sign for a big discount. Philip Clarke will take part of the savings and the rest will be used for tough signs.
scottt - Thursday, June 13 2019 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#375522) #
The noise is that Brown will be over slot, which would explain why he hasn't signed yet.
There should be enough money to sign Clarke regardless.
Clarke is currently catching in the College World Series, so we'll have to wait until that's over for him.

Marc Hulet - Thursday, June 13 2019 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#375525) #
Brown hasn't signed because his high school year isn't over... rules prohibit it.
scottt - Thursday, June 13 2019 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#375528) #
Thanks for the clarification Marc.

So, maybe same thing apply to Jean Christophe Masson, although I've no idea if he's going to sign or not.

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