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Its a long weekend, four game, battle at the bottom with the teams with the third and fourth fewest wins in baseball battling it out for draft pick order. For the Jays Justin Smoak is back and Billy McKinney is gone, to Buffalo we assume.

SCHEDULE

Friday, 7:07 - Danny Duffy vs. Sean Reid-Foley

Saturday, 4:07 - Homer Bailey vs. Marcus Stroman

Sunday, 1:07 - Brad Keller vs. Aaron Sanchez

Sunday, 1:07 - Glenn Sparkman vs. Clayton Richard


It will be interesting to see what SRF does in yet another audition. Can Aaron Sanchez pitch better? Will he ever admit his failures? Will Vlad ever hit another home run?

Royals @ Blue Jays - June 28-July 1 | 148 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#376286) #
The Royals vs the Blue Jays (We still have the same queen after all) might have been more appropriate for a game played in England.

scottt - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#376287) #
Will Vladdy hits a HR in this series?

I can't answer that, but I can go over the Royals rotation.

Duffy was the valuable controllable pitcher that the Royals decided not to trade when they started rebuilding. So far this year, he's just league average and has given 1.3 HR per 9.
He's a lefty, but I'm not sure that helps.

Homer Bailey sounds like a guy you can take deep, but he's also league average and his HR/9 is 1.0.

Brad Keller is the stingiest of the bunch at 0.5 HR/9.

Sparkman has not pitched much , but he's given 1.6 HR/9.

The 2 starters who have had the most troubles with the long balls, Junis and Lopez, (1.7 and 2.1) are not pitching in this series. Not as starters anyway.

Magpie - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#376293) #
Smoak is in the lineup at 1b, batting sixth, and Billy McKinney goes back to Buffalo.
Magpie - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#376294) #
Eight pitches, eight strikes? Reid-Foley, is that you?
Nigel - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#376297) #
Any of Drury, Hernandez or McKinney weíre reasonable choices to demote. I probably would have kept McKinney due to his Lefthandedness but no complaints with that choice.

SRF is pitching well but boy does he look like a reliever to me.
PeterG - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#376298) #
Looks like a starter to me.
uglyone - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#376299) #
I fear he'll always be on and off, no matter which role he's in.
Nigel - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#376300) #
My comment was directed at his repitoire - heís the definition of a two pitch pitcher. There isnít much evidence thatís heís capable of pitching at this level but his being able to do so would be a huge plus.
PeterG - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#376301) #
I think there is more than enough evidence that he is capable of pitching at this level. He definitely has major league stuff but so far has lacked consistency. Considering that he has only had one of 3 allowable options, he certainly has time to find it. I will agree that his change up needs more work but he did throw a few good ones tonight.
uglyone - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#376302) #
So far the pitch trackers have him throwing 4 pitches (fb sl cb ch) and maybe a 5th (si).
Mike Green - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#376303) #
1-0 for the BGs in the second half. Still missing an important  B.
SK in NJ - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#376304) #
Gurriel now has 25 home runs in 441 career MLB plate appearances dating back to last season (14 HR in 178 PA this season). The power looks very real. He is by far the best development of the season so far, and finally playing a position where he should be able to stick long-term.
Nigel - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#376305) #
SRF has a FIP north of 4 in AA and AAA.
scottt - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#376306) #
Duffy looked like a 2 pitch pitcher and it did not impact him.
That's probably the most sliders I've seen a starter throw.

As long as your pitches are good and you can command them, you can manage with 2 pitches.
You just use your other pitches here and there to surprise the hitters.

Another good game for Jansen against a lefty.

SRF is more like Sanchez than Stroman, but today he was hitting the corners frequently.

uglyone - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#376307) #
"SRF has a FIP north of 4 in AA and AAA."

1.while mostly young for the levels
2.an extremely inconsistent north of 4
3.numbers overall:

AA (21-22): 4.32era, 4.51fip, 3.99xfip
AAA (22-23): 4.78era, 4.09fip, 4.21xfip
dan gordon - Friday, June 28 2019 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#376308) #
Heard on the radio today that since the date of his recall, Gurriel has the 2nd best OPS in baseball behind Mike Trout. Wouldn't be surprised if he passed him today.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#376309) #
I'm not sure I can tell if SRF looks like a starter or a reliever. I think he looks more like Brett Lawrie crossed with every '70s porno film ever made.

If we can get a few more scoreless innings from Dan Hudson we should be able to get a nice C prospect out of him. Wish we didn't give up on Guerra so soon.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 01:16 AM EDT (#376311) #
I'm excited to see the changes and shifts as players get traded and moved around in the next month. It really would be nice to see some true CF-types in CF (Alford when healthy, but I really think Davis should be carried as a 4th OF but I understand getting him ABs), and let the Drury and McKinney experiments end. Teoscar, despite his "potential", is another player in a long line of the same type of player we already have. I hope we give more shots in the rotation to some of these AAA guys working their way back, and not have Clayton Richard block them for the year.
Nigel - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 04:06 AM EDT (#376312) #
Uglyone - I agree and with his age and his FB thereís definitely hope. Like everything else this season, Iím in favour of giving him starts. My only point was that his performance at AA and AAA hasnít been great. Heís the Richard Urena of pitching prospects.
katman - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 04:18 AM EDT (#376313) #
Looks like the McKinney experiment is over for the foreseeable future.

Richard isn't going anywhere any time soon, given the Jays' realistic options. Maybe the trade deadline changes that, but even then I doubt it. I do want someone to take Law's spot in the bullpen, ASAP. Preferably someone we could use in an opener role.

Drury will have his spot taken by Bichette pretty soon; I don't see him on the major-league team after the All-Star break.

I agree that the Jays' future CF is not currently on the team - but Teoscar will continue to play CF for a while. His power makes the team want to see if something clicks, and partly it's a lack of viable alternatives that are obvious upgrades. Alford may be playing his way toward that status, but after the last year+ of results he's going to have to really prove that it's more than a hot streak. Or Teoscar will continue to spin out the plate until he's just sent to AAA.

Davis would indeed be a capable 4th OF, but not having him lets us use Biggio and hence Sogard in the lineup. Everyone's better off with him playing every day in AAA.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 06:35 AM EDT (#376315) #
At what point are we worried about Vladdy? I am not saying I am, but how long before he makes the adjustments to major league pitching?
scottt - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 07:08 AM EDT (#376316) #
I'm not worried about Vladdy, but I'm really glad they delayed his promotion and got that extra year of control. I also like that they are not trying to extend him early.

Reminds me that Vernon Wells just sold his Texas mansion to Rex Tillerson. Wells sure did well financially for the numbers he produced.

scottt - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#376317) #
I'm not a big fan of Law, but if you rank the pitchers in Bufallo by WHIP.

Cordero 0 gone tiny-sample
Richard 0.6 tiny-sample
Buchholtz 0.8 tiny-sample
Phelps 0.857 tiny-sample
Shafer 0.935 small-sample
Law 0938 tiny-sample

Shafer is probably the first guy recalled when Giles/Hudson are traded.
Then you give some guys a look.


Chuck - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 07:41 AM EDT (#376318) #
At what point are we worried about Vladdy?

Have a look at the age-19 seasons for Trout, Griffey and Alex Rodriguez. Of course it's not a given that Guerrero follows in their footsteps and becames a major force in his second season, but first year struggles from an extremely young player are not unheard of.

ayjackson - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#376320) #
I think our offense will be excellent going forward, not sure who will be pitching though.

As an aside, I see we are last in the league in BABIP, but middle of the pack in MED & HARD hit balls %.
christaylor - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#376325) #
The Wells contract was lauded for being backloaded. I don't recall if it was mentioned at the time, but that was a self-serving move by JP. He probably expected it to work out and see the team improve. The 2008 team deserved a better fate than it got the run differential sure said, contender.

There were a couple of red flags w/Wells at the time but the performance of older players seemed to not drop off (not seeing high 90s fastballs at the rate today probably helped).

Here's the kicker, even if JP thought Wells' contract was going to weigh the Jays down in 2010. I lump it together with AA's picking up the Tulo contract. AA gets praise for finding a Wells taker, but the "not my problem" of the two contracts seems similar historically, if not an exact repeat a rhyme of history.
christaylor - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#376326) #
Not drawing anything other than an age comparison but there wasn't much evidence from his MLB work that Roy Halladay could pitch at this level at SRF age either.
bpoz - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#376327) #
I believe P Godfrey wanted the Wells deal not Richardi.
uglyone - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#376328) #
"Uglyone - I agree and with his age and his FB thereís definitely hope. Like everything else this season, Iím in favour of giving him starts. My only point was that his performance at AA and AAA hasnít been great. Heís the Richard Urena of pitching prospects."

I'm skeptical of him too now - my first comment here was that I fear that he'll forever be an on or off kind of guy, whether as a starter or releiver. he'll look great and awful in equal doses. his stuff is actually really nasty when it's on, but it's not on much of the time. He reminds me a bit of Daniel Norris.

Urena is a bit low as a comp though, imo - SRF was legit dominant at both AA and AAA last year at age 22. Urena has been similarly young for his levels like SRF has, but Urena hasn't even managed to come close to average yet at his levels since his dominant year in A+.
uglyone - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#376329) #
as much as we like to poop on the Wells contract I still say we had some extraordinarily bad luck overall at the time - the way guys like Wells, Rios, Hill, Lind, Romero, and my memory fails me now but a bunch of others all suddenly collapsed as players after years of pretty consistent improvement into legit allstar calibre performances still seems pretty crazy to me.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#376330) #
Overbay, Ryan, Burnett injuries
Petey Baseball - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#376331) #
Best case scenario is Galvis and Sogard continue to hit and have some trade value. Bichette can come up once one or both are traded. It's too bad the Jays need so badly to recoup the lukewarm returns from a few trades past, otherwise I'd be happy with keeping Galvis and retaining him for next year.
uglyone - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#376332) #
Shoeless I don't see anything needing a major adjustment from vladdy - he's just a little bit under expectations all across the board.

8.6bb% is a solid walk rate, but nothing special.
19.0k% is not a bad K rate, but not great.
.250 average is just ok.
.155 iso is middling power.

39.0/39.6/21.4 pull/cen/oppo is pretty solid spreading the ball.

19.5/42.8/37.7 soft/med/hard is actually very good contact quality, so that's encouraging.


now that I look at it though the one overriding problem right now is that he's hitting the ball on the ground too often.

49.1 groundball% leads the team (min 50pa)
34.0 flyball% is behind everyone other than Maile/Davis/Drury
17.0 linedrive% is last on the team


ok so yeah I take it back a bit - there does seem to be a clear adjustment available to him here. my guess from watching is that these are coming off hard breakers which would strikeout most kids but for him are turning into weak grounders.


Something we IMO have to take into account here is that most likely due to all the hype he got, and also due to the lack of hitters in our lineup, is that they just haven't pitched Vladdy like a rookie this year at all. They've been pitching him like a vet right from the get go. That's something that most rooks - especially 20yr old rooks - don't have to deal with. To wit:

1. Vladdy is second lowest on the team in fastball percentage, ahead of only Grichuk.
2. They just aren't throwing Vladdy any strikes. At 36.1% he's got the lowest zone% of any Jay by almost 2 full percent.


So yeah, looks like he just has to sop swinging at breakers out of the zone.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#376333) #
The 2006 Jays were my favorite team outside of '15 and 16. Glaus, Overbay Wells all had monster years. Halladay was Halladay, and Burnett actually had some brilliant outings (think late July Yankee series, seven innings, twelve strikeouts something like that). BJ Ryan was lights out. And who could forget Freed Jattalanotto at the top of the order? Unfortunately, the Yankees and Red Sox had a bit more pitching depth, and as mentioned the Jays had a few costly injuries.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#376335) #
Those middle Ricciardi years were interesting. Had Marcum and McGowan arrived in late '05 instead of late '06 the Jays might have been a playoff team.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#376336) #
I think had only a couple of players in the early Ricciardi years panned out, it would've been very interesting. Phelps was a top prospect at the time and would've received more looks in today's "who cares about Moneyball?" game (and ended his career with over .800 OPS), McGowan was considered as a pitcher with better stuff than Halladay when Halladay was already the ace. Always fun to think about.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#376345) #
The Yankees/Red Sox London game is quite the show. 6-6 in the 1st inning, and both Porcello and Tanaka knocked out of the game.
scottt - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#376348) #
It's pretty shallow in centre from what I understand.
PeterG - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#376349) #
Ryan Borucki is scheduled to pitch 4 innings or 60 pitches for Dundedin tonight.
uglyone - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#376352) #
Gurriel could win AL Player of the Month with a good weekend:

Trout: 9hr, 23rbi, .323avg, 1.111ops, 192wrc+
Gurriel: 10hr, 20rbi, .340avg, 1.092ops, 183wrc+
Ohtani: 7hr, 20rbi, .349avg, 1.075ops, 181wrc+
Lemahieu: 6hr, 22rbi, .373avg, 1.055ops, 179wrc+

Magpie - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#376354) #
It's pretty shallow in centre from what I understand.

Apparently it's 385 feet to centre, although only one of today's homers was actually hit to centre. (Hey, it's probably shallow in right as well.) But the Yankees already have 17 hits with one out in the fifth.

Is this what cricket is like? Would explain a lot.
christaylor - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#376355) #
That's the lore, but you never know. For all we know JP said OK thanks for the money but we'll have to restructure it to make it not my problem if it does not work out.

That said, with the benefit of hindsight in both cases the Wells deal was smarter than the Tulo contract even though the team sent a bad co tract the other way.
grjas - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#376356) #
Gurriel could win AL Player of the Month with a good weekend:


Thx for the data. Was wondering where he stood. Good lord, Trout is otherworldly.
scottt - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#376357) #
Trout can take a walk.

Maybe Stroman stays in Toronto after all.
The trade value just took a nose dive here.

greenfrog - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#376358) #
What happened to Stroman?
PeterG - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#376359) #
Appears to be a left shoulder injury.
uglyone - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#376360) #
yeah looked like he tweaked his non-pitching shoulder/lat.
scottt - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#376361) #
Bailey is the first pitcher to face both Guerreros and Biggios, fathers and sons and  to make it even more memorable he gives a homer to each of them. Great.
Nigel - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#376362) #
For all his HRs, Gurrielís AB before the grand slam may have impressed me the most. Just a really good AB. And, well, Biggioís AB was fantastic as well:)
scottt - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#376365) #
I'm less impressed by Phelps' greasy hat. Oh, well.
PeterG - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#376366) #
They are saying left shoulder/pectotal cramp for Stro. Let's hope that is all it is.
christaylor - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#376367) #
That's the lore, but you never know. For all we know JP said OK thanks for the money but we'll have to restructure it to make it not my problem if it does not work out.

That said, with the benefit of hindsight in both cases the Wells deal was smarter than the Tulo contract even though the team sent a bad co tract the other way.
John Northey - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#376368) #
Wells was a nightmare - Signed after the 2006 season which was his best by a good margin after 2 in the 104/5 range. Age was 27 for that season, a prime age for peak seasons. I can see why they did it, but it really looked dumb immediately as Wells said he thought it was a bit crazy in the press conference. A 5 year for a few mil less per year would've made sense.

Tulo was, as you said, a very different situation. Jays in contention mid-season and Reyes with a 92 OPS+ after an 82 the season before, negative dWAR and in line for $48 mil the next 2 years including buyout. Tulo in line for $98 mil but had a 107 OPS+ and positive dWAR (as he has ever since). So the cost was $50 mil (Reyes was pretty much near worthless at that point with a sub 90 OPS+ since and negative dWAR every season) plus prospects.

Now was it a great trade? No. 4.8 WAR for $50 mil is meh at best. But the alternative was probably missing the playoffs both years instead of making it.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#376371) #
Cavan Bigio might have the best idea of the strike zone of any Jay I can remember. Even besides the grand slam, I liked that he offered at a strike with a 3-0 count to prove he isn't always passive. I think he sticks as a major leaguer for a long time.
Mike Green - Saturday, June 29 2019 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#376373) #
Biggio, VGJ and Jansen homer in a Blue Jay win. That's the way the second half is supposed to go. 2-0 for the BGs in the second half.

Thomas Pannone had another fine start for Buffalo tonight. There is an opening or five.
hypobole - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#376375) #
Life is good for MG and the BGs, with only 79 to go.

On the positive side, 21 of those are vs the 3 teams below us.

Now the not so good:
Only 6 games left against all the other teams at.500 or worse.
16 against teams with winning records not on pace to win 90 games.
That leaves the 6 teams on pace to win 90 plus. We're finished with the Twins, but play the other five, ouch, 36 times.

Will the spunky BGs be able to do it?
Mylegacy - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 01:25 AM EDT (#376377) #
Hypobole, It's late, 10.24 PST here at Sidney on The Salish Sea and I'm going to bed. However, I just wanted to say I enjoy your thoughtful, obviously well researched items and comments.

Giving our complements at this time of day, dear me. I guess I'm getting maudlin in my dotage. Sigh.

Perhaps a wee dram will improve my slumber...
scottt - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 01:50 AM EDT (#376378) #
A cramp on his glove side? Ironically, Stroman use to sponsor some kind of pink electrolyte drink.

Maybe Giles not being able to pitch back to back is a more serious concern.

Only 6 hits for the Jays today.
Encouraging to see Jansen hit at least 2 balls in the air to the outfield.
I missed his 3rd PA.

I wouldn't want Gurriel diving after balls in centrefield on a regular basis.

scottt - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 01:57 AM EDT (#376379) #
This Astros blog has an interesting article about Stroman, including a 78% vote in favor.

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2019/6/28/19102436/taking-another-look-at-a-potential-stroman-trade-astros-blue-jays-marcus-stroman
Vulg - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 06:02 AM EDT (#376380) #
The Red Sox are 38-26 since bottoming out from their poor start in April. I'm not sure I'd be optimistic about them falling apart this season.

Long term, I agree Dombrowski has typically been a boom-bust GM. However, before the Yankees got smart and realized they could afford positive-WAR redundancy at every position, they were also cyclical.

Even if they don't wisen up, you don't have to be perfect when you're willing to trot out the highest paid roster in baseball. The Red Sox have had 5 losing seasons since the strike shortened a season (1996) and never more than 2 back-to-back. That's a lot of consistent winning. It's true they have one of the "worst" minor league talent pools in MLB, but when you can keep all of your top end talent and add liberally in free agency (eg. JD Martinez), you need fewer to stick (eg. Chavis this year).

They might suck again in the next couple of years, but it probably won't be for very long.
scottt - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 07:08 AM EDT (#376381) #
The Bloody Sox are competing for a wild card spot this season.
They are not the reason the Jays are not.

I just don't expect them to be a playoff team for much longer.
Maybe another year.

The Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers,  Cardinals and Astros are all going to be close to the cap when it's all said and done.
The Giants should start rebuilding. The Nationals might double down. The Phillies should.

Spending 50M more than other teams don't put you over when a single bad contract can account for 30M.

There's no telling how long it will take  Boston to rebound once they miss the playoffs and there's no point worrying about that. Maybe Baltimore will put together a houston type team once they're done collecting first overall picks.



Vulg - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#376383) #
Sure, anything can happen. I stated those facts simply to show that history is not on your side.

And while an extra $50M might not "put you over" or guarantee winning, especially if invested poorly, I think we can agree it helps. An extra $110M (i.e. the gap this year) helps even more. Also, $30M deals are pretty rare and David Price is the only person on the Sox roster who comes with significant salary risk at the moment (next highest is the aforementioned Martinez at $22.75M).

An extra $50M - $100M doesn't need to be dumped into free agency or big gambles either. It gives you leeway to hang on to your young core for longer. I don't think the Sox have any fear of having to trade away Betts, Benintendi, Devers or Boegarts any time soon. The same can't be said for most other teams, including the Jays apparently.
mathesond - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#376384) #
Hey, remember when every year people said the Yankees were too old and expensive, and 200x was the year they would collapse? Never really happened, did it - in fact, I think they even won a World Series in 2009.
StephenT - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#376387) #
Sportsnet's insultingly squishing the picture of the 2nd London game to run a ticker at the bottom of the screen.  Is ESPN doing that too?
mathesond - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#376389) #
I can't see the ESPN feed, but I also can't see ESPN not running a ticker, either.
finch - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#376390) #
MLBTV is a great investment. I always watch the opposing team's feed.

Also, what's Sogard's trade value? A prospect in the 80 to 100 range as the return?
scottt - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#376391) #
Not sure why Guerrero is off today. Maybe to make sure he's not off for the Canada Day game?
dalimon5 - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#376392) #
Return for Sogard and Galvis should be tempered. These two players were passed over/not signed by every other MLB team. If there was any interest to signing them by other teams if was likely minimal especially for Sogard. I don't think a hot 4 months changes that. JUstin Smoak was passed over as a free claim on waivers last year...not a single team claimed him to try to make a trade for him.
Nigel - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#376393) #
I can understand (sort of) using Drury at 3B when Vladdy gets a day off - heís a legitimately good defender at 3B. But playing Drury in RF?
Magpie - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#376394) #
Better being lucky than good.
scottt - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#376395) #
Lucky Barrel Maile, is what they call him.

Hudson is another guy who could bring some return.
You do it, even if it's just some raw guy in rookie ball.

Galvis has another option year, so I'd hung into him.
Sogard is having a career year. Not a bad guy to pick up if you have a whole in the infield.
That worked really well for Steve Pearce.

finch - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#376396) #
Re: Smoak
I think with the trade deadline moved up this season, and no September deadline, I think the trade deadline will be more active this year; it'll force teams to have insurance type players on the roster. That gives Smoak a little more value than in previous years. If a player gets hurt after the deadline, all you have is internal options.

I don't think the return for Smoak would be he will be moved.
hypobole - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#376397) #
Certainly seems Sanchez will be staying put this trade deadline.
finch - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#376398) #
At this point, does Sanchez have any minor league options left? Let him to go A ball and figure things out?
Magpie - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#376399) #
does Sanchez have any minor league options left?

I doubt it. He definitely used one of his option years in 2014 and another in 2016. I'm not sure about 2013 - it was his fourth year as a pro, but he signed and his career began when he was 17, which would give him an extra year before he was added to the 40 man roster. So I'm not sure if they needed to use an option on him in 2013. But really, it all depends on when he was added to the 40 man roster.
AWeb - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#376400) #
Do we care if someone claims Sanchez on a demotion? This franchise can't seem to fix him, and he has no trade value at all. Enough of this. Is this what openly tanking looks like?
Magpie - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#376401) #
Do we care if someone claims Sanchez on a demotion?

[crickets]
Magpie - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#376402) #
Wilner on the Twitter says Sanchez still has an option left.

Well, an option is a terrible thing to waste.
hypobole - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#376403) #
Has Sanchez ever been to Driveline?
Magpie - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#376404) #
Has Sanchez ever been to Driveline?

That went right past me. Is that something else you young fellas need to explain to the old guy?
Cracka - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#376405) #
I'm almost certain he does have options left -- in fact, all 3 of them. He was added on the 40-man roster in July 2014. He did not burn an option in 2015 (rehab assignment in minors); He did not burn an option in 2016 (spent
Cracka - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#376406) #
(continued)... did not burn an option in 2016 (sent to minors for less than 20 days); and did not burn an option in 2017 or 2018 (rehab stints). He has only 3.5 years of service so he can't refuse an assignment.

I think it's a great idea at this point.
christaylor - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#376407) #
If he has an option send Sanchez down to A ball. Hm. Might be a little late for that move...
Magpie - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#376408) #
OK, that's 2016. But how was he not on the 40 man to begin 2014? It was his fifth pro season. He'd get a pass on the first one because he was just 17. But two of them?

Not that it matters. As long he's got at least one!
finch - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#376409) #
Move him down to Lansing. If Boras complains, tough luck. Let him fix himself because whatever he's doing now isn't working...
Magpie - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#376410) #
whatever he's doing now isn't working...

Over the last two months, Sanchez is 0-9, 8.52 and he's still on the hook today. It's working quite well for the other team.

His June has been especially delightful: 6 starts, 0-5, 12.00 with 16K, 19 BB. And on the hook for today...
hypobole - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#376411) #
Getting ridiculous. Waiting for someone to suggest sending Sanchez to the DSL.

Magpie, Driveline is the premier baseball training facility. Nate Pearson trained there this past offseason, Trevor Bauer, Matt Boyd trained there. They're so well thought of, their instructors are being hired by MLB teams as well.



Magpie - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#376412) #
Cool. Thanks.
finch - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#376413) #
Getting ridiculous. Waiting for someone to suggest sending Sanchez to the DSL.

Ummmm...what do you suggest?
hypobole - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#376414) #
Ummmm...what do you suggest?

Wait it out for now. If someone at AAA shows they're ready and Sanchez is still struggling, then option him down or bullpen him. I mean, Edwin Jackson was starting/bulking until he got hurt.
Magpie - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#376415) #
Sogard missed him.
Magpie - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#376416) #
Derek Law still looking for that first clean inning out of the bullpen. He's allowed at least one baserunner in every one of his relief outings.

The fans down at the park have got to be asking for tryouts by now.

I did like the way Maile sold the throw to second, though.
PeterG - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#376417) #
Wouldn't get more than an A ball lottery ticket for Sogard but I would deal him anyway and keep Galvis.
christaylor - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#376418) #
That is what will probably happen. There might be some merit to giving him and opener. He's broken somehow and while the broadcast did mention Wells, Carpenter, and Doc having worse months or he has had; Sanchez getting shelled for a half-dozen starts at minimum doesn't seem to be a the best solution.

His own comments about himself speak to overconfidence or perhaps they are stock phrases he doesn't believe and in that case self-doubt... a little nudge such as him getting an opener for a few starts might be a nice gentle signal for the coaching staff to send.
pooks137 - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#376419) #

Sanchez passed five years MLB service time sometime earlier this month.

This is significant because 5 year players can refuse minor league assignments even with options remaining. They also get full pay if they refuse and gef DFAed/released

Sanchez either stays on the 25-man roster until 2021, gets released, gets hurt or gets traded. Those are the only options at this point

Chuck - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#376420) #
Those are the only options at this point

The next stop for Sanchez is the bullpen. He has certainly run out of ammunition to fight such a move. It is not entirely implausible that he could be useful in such a role. Far few riches would await but he ain't about to strike gold as a SP doing what he's been doing this year.

Kelekin - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#376421) #
There likely is little harm in making him a reliever, because if he does end up succeeding there (which certainly seems possible - his issues stem the 2nd time through the lineup), he may even end up with the slightest modicum of value compared to now if he can be successful doing so for the next year.
finch - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#376422) #
Marcus Stroman to the All-Star game! Who wants to acquire an All-Star pitcher at the deadline?

Personally, I wanna see him stay long term.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#376424) #
Not sure why Guerrero is off today.
Probably cause I went today for the first time. Sorry about that.
Chuck - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#376425) #
Probably cause I went today for the first time.

Nope, it's the memo Charlie got informing him that July 1 is something of a big deal in Canada and could he keep that in mind.

Cracka - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#376426) #
Sanchez passed five years MLB service time sometime earlier this month.

Sanchez made his MLB debut on July 23, 2014. I believe he has accrued service time continuously since then, but that's still not quite 5 years of MLB service time (probably short about ~25 days). He has not been optioned since his recall (other than for 10 days in 2016 that doesn't count as an option). I'm almost certain that he can be optioned right now.
Magpie - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#376427) #
... the broadcast did mention Wells, Carpenter, and Doc having worse months

Oh, I got to look into this!
christaylor - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#376428) #
If memory serves Wells Aug 92, Doc Apr 99/00, and Carpenter sometime in 02. I wonder where Sanchez's month ranks?
dan gordon - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#376429) #
Put Sanchez in the bullpen. He might just pitch well - he's been great as a reliever before. If he doesn't, so what, you haven't lost anything. If he looks great, you may have found yourself a serviceable reliever. He certainly doesn't merit a spot in the rotation at this point.

Borucki or Merryweather could be ready in another couple of weeks, and in the meantime, Pannone could get a couple of starts - he's pitched well in Buffalo.
hypobole - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#376430) #
Rarely check other teams articles at The Athletic, but thought I'd look in on the Red Sox after their London debacle. Comments section is priceless.

https://theathletic.com/1055847/2019/06/30/jennings-red-sox-pitching-problems-extend-far-beyond-bullpen/
SK in NJ - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#376431) #
What happens with Sanchez depends on how the FO views him. If they are done with him completely and just want him gone (which would be understandable to me given his personality), then just trade him for another team's junk and wipe your hands clean. If they insist on trying to build him into an asset before moving him, then making him a RP and revisiting a trade either in the winter or next summer might be the only real solution.

Another option might be to keep him in the rotation (if nothing else he's helping the team lose which seems to be the MO for 2019), and then hope a contract year makes him motivated for 2020. The problem with that is that he's only been good in one season of his pro career, so expecting him to be good again just for the dollar signs is asking a lot.
scottt - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#376432) #
I think what happens with Sanchez is that next spring, he competes for a rotation spot.
If everybody is healthy and they have 5 starters who perform better than can move him to the pen.
If somehow he rights the boat, he stays put.

Magpie - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#376433) #
The problem with that is that he's only been good in one season

He's been good in three seasons - you mean he's had one good full season as a starting pitcher. There's a full season's worth of kick-ass relief pitching (1.67 ERA, 30 H in 59.1 IP) and a solid couple of months in the rotation as well over the 2014-15 seasons.

Gosh, it seems so long ago...
John Northey - Sunday, June 30 2019 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#376434) #
At this point I don't think the Jays have much choice but to shift Sanchez to the pen or to an 'opener' role. I could see telling him he has 3 innings at the start of a game for July and if he does well he'll get extended to 5 innings max, if not then a pure pen situation. Right now letting him go more than once through the order is writing off the game. In truth his highest value would probably be as a setup man for Giles but given his mind-set as a starter that might be too far right now. I'd look at a 3 inning start, 2 days off, 3 innings, two days off cycle if possible.
pooks137 - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 01:49 AM EDT (#376435) #

Baseball reference states Aaron Sanchez finished 2018 with 4 years and 69 days service time.

A year of MLB service time is considered 172 days (even though there are more than 172 days in a season)

The season started this year March 28th. Sanchez needed another 103 days to achieve 5 years.

He accumulated 4 days in March, 30 days in April, 31 days in May and another 30 days in June for 95 total.

I guess you are right. He only has 95 days total this season. It seems he'll achieve 5 years on July 8th.

scottt - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#376437) #
1 BB, 7 Ks, opponents hitting .200. We'll need to have another look at Waguespack for sure.
12 BBs, 17 Ks. opponents hitting .390. I sure hope we're done with Jackson.
7 BBs. 7 Ks, opponents hitting .410. Sanchez's last 2 games have been up there and one of those was against the Royals.

scottt - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#376438) #
I wouldn't trust Sanchez with a lead in the 8th right now.

Alford has now better numbers in AAA than McKinney.

scottt - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#376439) #
Last winter, the Cards traded for Goldschmidt, in what was mostly a salary dump.
So far he's hitting .246 with a .741 OPS and he has 5 years (age 32 to 36) left at 26M each.

There's a good chance he bounces back, but if he doesn't this will be a pretty big anchor.

Spifficus - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#376441) #
Goldschmidt wasn't a salary dump at the time, though. He was a '1 year to go' trade, and I thought the return the diamondbacks got was pretty solid. The extension was the Cardinals' own doing.
Spifficus - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#376442) #
As for Sanchez, there will likely be an opening at closer within the month. That's probably the quickest way to build his trade value back up for either the offseason or next year.
bpoz - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#376443) #
Most of the young position players are making the adjustment to the ML fairly well. Could be better and hopefully will.

Clearing out some veterans early was a good idea/plan so that the kids got their ABs.

The early threat of being No Hit was in large part due to the kids.

The pitching was unusual injury wise. Many veterans got injured quite quickly. They were signed to bridge the gap to young pitchers needing time to finish their development. Injury and non performance from young pitchers like Borucki, Zeuch and SRF has set back the rebuild. Very few to almost no young pitchers got tested in the 1st half.

I definitely don't think we are tanking intentionally. The poor offense from the young is a little surprising rather than a lot.

I expect by the end of July Bichette and Alford have a chance to be promoted. If not ready McKinney, J Davis and Urena will fill in until they are promoted.

I don't know how many veteran pitchers like Buchhols or young pitchers will be ready soon (4-6 weeks). I am not concerned about having a surplus. Shafer and Romano need to be up ASAP to continue their testing.

If we could have got more out of Sanchez (poor performance) or the injured Borucki and Shoemaker we may not be heading to a 100 loss season.
uglyone - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#376444) #
Sanchez Career

As SP: 87gs, 5.6ip/gs, .291babip, 97era-, 105fip-, 105xfip-, 4.1fwar, 5.9ra9war, 1.8war/32gs

As RP: 54gms, 59.1ip, .182babip, 42era-, 74fip-, 81xfip-, 0.9fwar, 2.2ra9war, 1.7war/65ip


Simply a subpar starter - barely average performance in below average innings per start. Overall his performance as a starter probably is best described as a #4SP.

His relief numbers look sexy but unfortunately that babip number there is highly unsustainable no matter how good he may have been at limiting quality contact. Add a 100pts to that babip (which would still leave it quite low) and I'm not sure he's more than an average RP, either.

The thing I notice now is that his velo has steadily decreased over the years and now he averages just around 94mph - which is pretty average nowadays. And he can't afford for either of his 2 pitches to be average.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#376446) #
Jays are paying all of or a big chunk of Russell, Tulo and Morales' contracts this year...they're playing better now than if those players were on the roster. What does this mean? It means those posters pushing for the rebuild acceleration were largely correct. Overall, FO has not had good results on 'AAAA' players with upside (Drury, Teoscar etc)...but they have had good success with the rookies. I think we all should be happy with Vlad, Biggio, etc.

So...what am I getting at? Our team is getting better just with time. What if the Jays took the $40 million + of "sunk cost" from this year and repeated it again in the next year or two? Jays Journal has an intriguing proposal...Stroman and fodder to Padres for Myers and multiple prospects.
Spifficus - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#376447) #
Sanchez is only down 1 mph from his 2015 starting velo (95.3 to 94.4), and I don't see any reason it can't move back up past that in short stints.

As for babip, his relief success was always based on babip success - he was near-solely relying on his sinker (because, why not). Now he can use his curveball more for swings and misses.
Petey Baseball - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#376449) #
Ahh Dan Shulman is back. That's....that's better.
Magpie - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#376450) #
There must be someone in Blue Jays history who posted a worse ERA with the team than Sparkman, although an ERA of 63.00 is pretty hard to beat.
uglyone - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#376451) #
this is what vladdy has to do - just stop swinging. it'll fix everything.
Spifficus - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#376452) #
It took going back to 1979 on BBRef, but I finally found one impossible to beat - Steve Luebber, he of the INF era for his (very short) Toronto tenure. 1 BB, 2 hits, 1 ER, and 0.0 IPs. Even Sparkman (or Sam Dyson, or Dave Maurer) can't top that.
Mike Green - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#376454) #
That's what happens when you put up pictures of Big Ben and Buckingham Palace in the locker room.
Magpie - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#376455) #
The Jays need to get this Kansas City outfit on the schedule more often.
BlueJayWay - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#376456) #
I, too, would like to see the Jays in the AL Central
Magpie - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#376457) #
Even Sparkman (or Sam Dyson, or Dave Maurer) can't top that.

Someone could give up two runs without recording an out. We could call it infinity squared!
mathesond - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#376458) #
I was actually at Matt Boyd's last game as a Blue Jay.
Magpie - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#376459) #
Which led immediately to this.
mathesond - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#376460) #
Hurray! More Windy Baseball Lore!
scottt - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#376461) #
Right. Thanks for pointing that out Spifficus.

scottt - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#376463) #
Rosterresource also has Sanchez starting the year with 3 options and 4.069 year of service.

It would make so much sense to send him down to work on his control in AAA.

scottt - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#376465) #
Sanchez used to pound the bottom of the zone with a heavy sinker that had a lot of movement.
That pitch was hard to elevate and the hitter couldn't just push it the other way either because of the movement.
He also had a decent curve for an out pitch but it didn't produce a lot of outs. Maybe not in the zone often enough.

Now he has lost a bit of velo on his fastball and a lot of movement.
It's more an average fastball with no command.
He's developed a change up with a lot of movement but I suspect the arm action isn't there to sell it.
So, it's a slower pitch but also without command and the hitter is not fooled by it.

Gerry - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#376467) #
Tyler Skaggs has died. Angels game cancelled for today. No cause of death yet.

Skaggs was 27 years old and reportedly he was married in the off-season.

Tragic.
scottt - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#376468) #
Myers looks a lot like Drury to me. Around replacement value.
He's due 67M over the next 3 years.

Stroman is good enough to bring back multiple prospects on his own.
There's no need to give anything good for Myers + prospects in a San Diego salary dump.
What would the Friars do with the money? Sign up a free agent starter?

The optic of trading a top prospect for money, which is basically what this is would be really bad for the Padres.
And yet, a top prospect isn't worth that much. Gurriel was a free agent and the cost was around 7 year/21M.
For 67M, I'd want 3 of their top 5 prospects.


scottt - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#376469) #
Tragic. He beat us twice this year. He last pitched on Saturday at home.
scottt - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#376472) #
According to a press release from the Southlake Police Department, officers were summoned to the team hotel. They found Skaggs "unresponsive and he was pronounced deceased at the scene."

Sad, especially for the wife and kids.
hypobole - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#376473) #
Great start to July for MG's BGs.

Jays batters finished June 1% better than league average (101 wRC+. 15th place. Baserunning ranked 12th. FG had our defence 27th (but what do they know). Overall 3.0 fWAR, 19th in baseball.

Unfortunately, the pitching wasn't quite as good. The only overall positive is that we weren't the worst. That would be the "I coulda been a contender" Phillies. Starters 0.1 fWAR, relievers 0.4. Sanchez was only -0.4 because of FIP. Edwin Jackson was -0.2 as a starter, but also -0.4 as a bulk reliever. Mercifully, he's in a better place now, i. e., the IL.
hypobole - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#376474) #
Sorry about the Jackson "joke". Only after posting I heard the news about Tyler Skaggs. Terrible on so many levels.
scottt - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#376477) #
Pat said that Jansen is pulling everything, that the defense is taking advantage of that and that it's not a problem because Bautista was pulling everything.

He definitively needs to start hitting the ball in the air or learn to go the other way.
Another 0-4 today.

hypobole - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#376478) #
Jansen is pulling the ball less than he ever has at any level, other than an 11 PA rehab in rookie ball. So he does seem to be trying to change, which may be part of his problems.
Kelekin - Monday, July 01 2019 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#376479) #
Terrible news. The Angels also lost a very talented pitcher ten years ago, Nick Adenhart. Skaggs had even posted about it recently.
rpriske - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#376492) #
So, what is the word on De Castro?

They say his defense at short is as good as anyone... but they don't mention his hitting. Can he be a major leaguer?

PeterG - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#376497) #
Philip Clarke has signed for 500K. Jays used most of their overage to get this done.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#376498) #
Thanks PeterG. Looks like a successful draft. We signed quite a lot.
Kelekin - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#376500) #
rpriske - I would hope they think he could be a major leaguer, otherwise it would be weird to sign him.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 02 2019 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#376501) #
So the Jays now have all of their picks in the first 10 rounds signed. Via Blue Bird Banter.

Unsigned: Final date to sign is July 12th.
  • Round 19: Gustova Sosa (C) high schooler
  • Round 25: Nate LaRue (RHP) HS, ranked #165, says he won't sign
  • Round 29: Owen Diodati (C) HS, ranked #303, says he won't sign
  • Round 35: Connor Phillips (RHP), ranked #151
  • Also unranked #26, 27, 30, 32, 33, 39, 40

Jays have a maximum of $176,465 overage left. Given the top 10 rounds are done that is the absolute maximum they can go over the base of $125,000 per signing for rounds 11 and beyond.

For comparison last years top unsigned was round #21 Kobby Lopez (LHP) HS.
scottt - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#376530) #
de Castro is a small guy, like 140lbs. They compare him to Jose Reyes. who could be an all-star with a 144 OPS+ and only 7 HRs, but Reyes had wheels. De Castro has average speed.

Still, looking at Sogard, you never know what a guy can do until you gave him a chance.

The Jays have spread it more this year, more picks but lower ranked  guys.
I guess it's because they didn't have a highly ranked guy in view, but we'll have to wait and see.

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