At this time of year, everybody's looking for pitching. If he likes, Atkins can put his feet up and the phone will ring. But I would think he'd like to be able to trade his shortstop, if at all possible. The best fit I can think of for Galvis would be Milwaukee.

I can't tell if Clevinger's breaking balls are simply amazing, or I've just been watching Jays pitchers all year and am not used to seeing quality pitching on the regular.

By WHIP, Trevor Bauer is the #5 starter in Cleveland right now. At 1.18. FIP is less kind to a couple of them, but I can see why they would be both buyers and sellers at the deadline.

McKinney looks like he should be a good defender. He’s exactly the kind of player who, if you only see him once or twice, will get good scouting reports on his defence as he progresses through the minors. But, man, he’s a liability with his glove on.

This Cleveland team looks quite good. Good pitching and defense, adequate hitting. Looks like a playoff team.

What are people's projections for who will be traded and where?

My guesses...
Sogard-Oakland
Smoak- Boston
Galvis-Tampa
Hudson-Boston
Stroman-Yankees
Giles-Minnesota

Sogard and Phelps: Cubs (for Cory Abbott and Reivaj Garcia)
Hudson: Twins (for Griffin Jax)
Giles and Pompey: Braves (for Patrick Weigel, Joey Wentz and Daysbel Hernandez)
Stroman: Cardinals (for Dylan Carlson and Junior Fernandez)
Smoak: Stays Put
Galvis and Reid-Foley: Rays (for Josh Lowe)

Marc I hope you're wrong as those returns are all underwhelming, yet they seem realistic at the same time. Like I said, i hope you're wrong.

Since Marc is putting in return guesses, I'll do the same.

Sogard-Oakland for Hogan Harris
Smoak- Boston for Travis Lakins
Galvis-Tampa for Drew Stotman
Hudson-Boston for Thad Ward
Stroman-Yankees for Frazier and Clarke Schmidt (I hope not)
Giles-Minnesota for Jhoan Duran

Sogard - Cubs for Brailyn Marquez

Galvis - Dodgers for Miguel Vargas

Maile - Parts unknown

Smoak - Angels for Kyle Bradish

Stroman - Astros for Whitley and Matijevic

Giles - NYY for Frazier or Braves

I just hope the Jays receive one or two prospects who turn out to be above-average major leaguers.

Mentioned earlier if Pompey was DFA'd, some team might claim him as a pinch runner/defensive replacement. Keon Broxton is in DFA limbo right now with a somewhat similar skillset. He can't hit, while Pompey might, but Broxton doesn't have a huge injury red flag either. If he's claimed, that may take one potential Pompey claimant off the market.

I don't think broxton and Pompey have the same teams chasing them. Broxton would be a defensive replacement and pinch runner for a playoff team. Pompey would be a very bad team taking a risk to see if they can develop a former prospect.

Oh man Marc you are scaring me.

Why? Those are realistic returns... teams just don't trade their top prospects anymore. In the scenario I list, the Jays address org weaknesses in pitching and the outfield with mid-level to fringe top prospects.

We shall see how it all plays out... soon.

well, that's not really true - last year a number of excellent prospects were traded at the deadline.

and last year's world series winner built his team in large part by trading a way a bunch of elite prospects.

I like Marc's trades.

Stroman to the Cardinals would be nice. I like the Cardinals. We are good trading partners with them. C Carpenter had his best years with them. They treated him well.

I wish he could have stayed with us.

I think the only top-50 prospect traded last year was Mejia who pipeline had as #26 prospect. Not sure there was even another top-100 prospect dealt. Kelenic was traded on the offseason. But he was traded for an elite closer with years of control and he was probably a top-50 prospect. Marc is right about the difficult in getting top prospects.

Stroman for Carson and Fernandez would be a nice trade. Especially if Carson can really play CF (don't know anything about his defense).

Both of those prospects have taken big steps forward this year.

I mean, for all intents and purposes glasnow and meadows were top-50 prospects too.

I so wanted to type "for all intensive purposes" just to trigger Dewey.

and i'm not sure "for a closer" is a justification for excusing a trade of a top prospect, tbh.

I think it is more sensible to temper expectations in trade scenarios. Combining some of the examples listed here, if the Jays were able to get Carlson for Stroman and Duran for Giles, then that would be two players the team would easily slot into their to 5 prospects list, and both would be top 100 prospects in baseball (Carlson already there while Duran is likely heading there). Sprinkle in a few secondary prospects/lottery tickets, and it's probably fair value overall. Of course we would all want a slam dunk fleecing of another team, but that's much harder to do nowadays.

The Pirates were getting 3.5 years of Archer. I don't think it's comparable to Stroman or Giles. Also keep in mind the Rays player development is one of, if not the best in baseball. Meadows and Glasnow on another team may have developed differently.

"and i'm not sure "for a closer" is a justification for excusing a trade of a top prospect, tbh."

He was the best reliever in baseball with 4 years of rookie contract and was only 24. Now, I would never pay for long-term relievers either, but Diaz did have way more value than either Giles or Stroman.

That's an interesting convo - where would Carlson rank on the Jays?

AA

LF Carlson (20): 404pa, 10.4b%/19.6k%, .318bip/.284avg, .229iso, 138wrc+

A+

C Kirk (20): 184pa, 13.6b%/12.5k%, .366bip/.214avg, .122iso, 156wrc+
LF Carlson (19): 441pa, 11.8b%/7.7k%, .286bip/.247avg, .138iso, 112wrc+

A

C Kirk (20): 96pa, 18.8b%/8.3k%, .299bip/.299avg, .221iso, 172wrc+
SS Groshans (19): 96pa, 13.5b%/21.9k%, .433bip/.337avg, .145iso, 166wrc+
C Moreno (19): 198pa, 6.1b%/9.6k%, .305bip/.307avg, .205iso, 149wrc+
SP Pardinho (18): 19.0ip, 22.4k%/7.9b%, 1.89era, 3.29fip, 3.64xfip
LF Carlson (18): 451pa, 11.5b%/25.7k%, .323bip/.240avg, .107iso, 101wrc+

not sure it's so clear, tbh. could make an argument that all those jays there have better offensive and defensive upside....and aren't far behind in developemtn.

Prospects Live came out with their mid season top 10

1. Bichette
2. Groshans
3. Pearson
4. Pardihno
5. Manoah
6. Hiraldo
7. Kirk
8. Martinez
9. Kloffenstein
10. Conine

It’s a nice list. Don’t like Conine in the top 10. I would have Moreno instead. Solid list.

4 years for a closer like Diaz vs. 2 years of a #2SP like Stroman? eh.

Conine over Moreno...okay.

Pompey DFA.

"4 years for a closer like Diaz vs. 2 years of a #2SP like Stroman"

2 years of Diaz after last year would be worth more than 2 years of Stroman.

and i'm not sure "for a closer" is a justification for excusing a trade of a top prospect, tbh.

That would be 2 top prospects with Dunn. But the Mets also got Cano's contract.

only if you overvalue 60-70 innings of pitching, imo.


on another note, Pompey has been DFA'd. hope he skates.

Closers are all about the playoffs. It was stupid for NYM no question because they put the cart before the horse(closer should be last piece) but dominant relievers are extremely valuable for contending teams.

I think the Jays liked Pompey and wanted to give him another chance. Then he got his third concussion and now his chance has gone...but not permanently if he clears waivers.

I think the Jays are taking a gamble that Pompey's concussion history scares away potential teams. I am guessing that Miami and Kansas are two teams that will take that chance.

It will be good for Dalton to get a fresh start in a new environment.

With brother Tristan in Miami, I could see this as a low-risk acquisition for The Fish. But there is probably a greater than 50% chance that he'll clear and have to accept the assignment as it's his first DFA.

I looked back and these were the first published words I wrote about Pompey for FanGraphs back in January 2012:

SLEEPER ALERT: Dalton Pompey, OF: A raw, switch-hitting Canadian outfielder, Pompey has shown flashes of becoming a solid prospect. Signed at the age of 17 in 2010, he is still maturing both on and off the field. Pompey is learning to drive the ball more consistent and should develop at least average power. He went 19-for-19 in stolen base attempts in Rookie ball before moving up to the advanced Rookie league where he nabbed another four bags in five tries.

Pompey's concussion history is beyond worrisome. I really wonder how aggressive he can be defensively. He could (and for his well-being probably should) do a 2014 Rasmus by pulling up and playing balls off the wall. Probably be best for him to play in a spacious outfield.

Pompey's concussion history is beyond worrisome.

When I read "and I had to relearn how to use my eyes for baseball AND LIFE" (after his latest concussion), I'm at the point where I hope that my fallback plan was a good one and get going on it full tilt, not "I'll accept the DFA and go back to the minors to try again".

Carlson is 20 with a 138 wRC+ in AA showing power, walks, and a relatively decent K% considering age/level (less than 20%). I wouldn't be doing back flips or anything if he was the return for Stroman or Giles, but it's probably a realistic return in general. The Jays could do much worse.

Carlson would be adequate if he filled a need. Stroman is more valuable to the Jays than Carlson and Fernandez. One of Atlanta’s or San Diego’s top 7 pitchers would help with a real weakness. If Carlson was a CF; whole different story.

"If the club trades any of the players under discussion, it ought to be for value and not because the club is afraid of losing out"

I agree completely with this, Mike. I'd much rather sign guys like Giles, Stroman, Sogard, etc to extensions than trade them for less than fair value. It seems to me that, in a lot of cases, you end up trading good players for prospects that have a modest chance of perhaps becoming as good as the players you are trading away. Better to just keep the know commodities. They did a great job of acquiring very productive players like Sogard, Hudson and Phelps at no cost in players, and it would be a shame to part with them for little return. Sogard is on a 3.8 WAR pace this year, just like he was in 2017 (1.9 WAR in about 300 AB's). Of course, we have no idea what contract demands these guys would have. If they seem unsignable, then sure, a trade is best.

I would rather keep Stroman than trade him for Carlson+, but the ship has clearly sailed on keeping him long-term. Now it is about maximizing a trade return in a market where teams are reluctant to trade top prospects. As I said before, I think between Stroman and Giles if the Jays can get two top 100 prospects (rising), plus a few intriguing secondary pieces/lower minors lottery tickets, then it's probably the most realistic expectation for a return right now. Obviously hope for something better. Just prepare to be disappointed, or to not get what you think these players are worth. If this was 5-10 years ago, then the Jays would have gotten a haul. Now the market has shifted dramatically.

Don't agree with that either, SK.  Even if the club cannot arrive at an extension with Sroman now, the options are keeping him for 2020 and likely offering the QO (and perhaps extending him later) and trading him.  The first option is worth a lot more than zero, and you have to compare the possible return with the first option.  Carlson is an interesting player, if offered, but as I said, not really ideal from a position perspective.

Justin Shafer who looked like a Tommy John candidate yesterday is better today. He needs a day off but could be available tomorrow.

Clay Buchholz is throwing bullpens.

Jordan Romano and Anthony Alford, both with oblique strains, are getting closer to being back.

Julian Merryweather coming off TJ, pitched but then felt fatigue so the Jays backed him off. He could pitch again next week. The recovery from TJ is not linear. Merryweather is likely a plan B for next year, although he could go to the fall league if he recovers.

Mike, I can't see the Jays keeping Stroman with a year remaining on his deal considering what happened with Donaldson the year before. His trade value will drop dramatically with only a year (or two months next deadline) of control left, and the QO (while a solid fallback) is not as high of a pick as it used to be, plus Stroman would have to stay healthy/effective to turn it down.

Either extend him or trade him. I don't think there is a reasonable middle ground. Of course, keeping him is better than trading him for garbage, but I'm assuming the trade offers are at least reasonable in this scenario.

Keeping Stroman is the leverage used to get offers commensurate to his talent level and contract status, not to extort a lopsided one. If you're only getting Rental-style offers, then wait til the offseason and see what the Padres or White Sox will do (in addition to those already in the expected contender ring). In today's chat, MLBTR's Steve Adams said Mike Minor "Should bring at least one top 50 type of prospect back and a couple other solid pieces." A Top-50 prospect is, on The Board on Fangraphs, in that 50-55 future value range. I assume the others would be 40s or 45s. That's what I'd be thinking Stroman should be able to bring back as a baseline as well, and I would be tweaking aspects of it to improve the quality of the prospects (whether it's money, quality player combos, or both). Dylan Carlson is a 50, yes, but is at 98 on the 2019-updated board, so more towards the back than the front.

Mentioned this earlier, but Craig Edwards thought Stroman' value as 2 top 100's (or close)- a 50ish prospect and another in the 100 range.

"MLBTR's Steve Adams said Mike Minor "Should bring at least one top 50 type of prospect back and a couple other solid pieces."

I don't think Minor gets you anything remotely close to that. Look at the Fangraphs surplus value chart and he's not bringing back much. Look at the baseball trade simulator chat, they have Minor's value at 20.3 which is not even one top-100 prospect. I mean, Minor has a 4.09 FIP. You're telling me that some team is going to give up a huge package for that? Not going to happen. Stroman has more value than Minor for sure and I can see him bringing back that kind of package if the Jays do well in the trade.

I'm with you Mike. I still don't see the point of doing deals for the sake of deals. In the Jays current situation, the two players I would move for asset reallocation reasons would be Giles and Galvis. Galvis because of Bichette and Giles because he is more valuable to a contender than the Jays and, as a consequence, you can likely extract something more valuable to the current Jays. I'd add a good INF or C prospect to Giles if you could get a CF.

Surplus value assumes a constant valuation of WAR throughout the year, and I'm not sure if that's applicable at the deadline, when teams have figured out if they're contending or not, and can no longer pick up WAR for money (*notable exceptions may apply).

Heck, WAR might not even be the best measure no matter what the valuation is (given the high valuation of power relievers this time of year).

Add in that there's only one deadline, and that could see further concentration of immediate WAR value (or maybe not - it's uncharted waters).

As I like to point out when talking about the Trade Simulator, it's a fun toy, but it's a system that says Toescar ($16.3M surplus value) would be the major piece in a Stroman ($26.8M) trade. That's a system that needs to be treated with skeptecism, because either Hernandez is valued too high (for me, yes), or Stroman is valued too low (also yes).

Hey, Bauer vs Sanchez.

Guaranteed Win Night.

Sogard would fit with the Cubs. Cleveland as well.
Hudson: Red Sox, Cubs, Oakland would be a great fit.
Giles  Yankees, Twins, Red Sox, Dodgers and Braves are in the runnings. I'll go with the Twins.
Stroman: Yankees, Astros,  Brewers, Phillies, Cards. He could be a smart target for several teams.
I would let Smoak got for some international money. Boston, maybe? Or any NL team who needs a pitch hitter.
Galvis would work for the Rays, I'd take one of their hard throwing relief prospects. They have several in the 45 FV bracket.

Sanchez enters tonight's start with 14 losses on the season. Yes, measuring wins & losses for pitchers has become largely irrelevant in today's game, but I still reckon that a 20-loss season is an embarrassment for both the pitcher and the team. It's only happened once in the last 38 years: Mike Maroth on the 2003 Tigers (who won 43 games all season). Maroth lost his 15th game on July 27th, the team's 103rd game of the season. Tonight is the Jays 103rd game of the season.

“The Mississauga, Ont., native, who had never stored his bats that way, didn’t expect them to be there when he stood up a little too fast and smacked his head on one of them. That impact knocked the rest of the bats loose, causing them all to fall straight down onto him.”

I had never heard the full story before. No wonder he was concussed again. Hope he catches on some where or a fluke injury could cost him a lot of money, not to mention potential ongoing physical issues.

While I don't want to see him go, I also wish him the best in whatever he chooses. Personally, I know it's tough to give up the dream, but I think someone who has had three concussions should strongly consider not continuing to put themselves at further risk. Brain injuries are no joke.

Why is the game not on my TV? Is it on facebook or something?

YouTube, ayj. So, you can split screen with Billie Eilish's Bad Guy when Bauer pitches. Isn't modern technology wonderful?

I disagree Mike. The club's decision to scorch earth in 2019, and prior to that delay the rebuild by at least a year, has made trading Stroman more necessary, not less. The young players are filtering up, but not enough of them to make holding on to Stroman logical (minus an extension). The team did not get anything back for their veterans, aside from a comp pick for Encarnacion that ended up being Pearson (a comp pick in 2021 for Stroman won't be close to a 28th overall pick). If the team was able to turn Donaldson, Osuna, Happ, and others into more core pieces then maybe holding on to Stroman in 2020 even without an extension might have been fine, but now they have essentially left themselves with no choice.

There is a difference between a trade for reasonable/appropriate value and trading him for the sake of trading him. The Jays should not do the latter. However, they really have no choice but to do the former unless they can agree to an extension with him.

Sanchez with his best start in a while. Only 1 run in 5 IP and he didn't walk a batter.

Checked Bbref. This was his 145th game pitched. The last game he pitched with no walks was over 3 years ago (July 19, 2016) in his 84th game.

That interview with Jansen in the 5th was golden.

On Vlad (who just ran out his double and the crew were talking about his deceptive speed for a big guy) "He's a truck!"

And then there was the mid-game dugout shave story. I agree with his thoughts on mustaches and why he briefly went down to one, "They're Hilarious."

Is Stroman getting dealt tonight?

Why do ask that?

"Guaranteed Win Night", indeed.

What can I say. I have this power. I try to use it for good.

I guess he's making another start then.

Twins got a reality check on where their bullpen stands.

So ESPN picked up on Aaron's no-walk outing last night as well. Ended the longest streak in the majors at 61 starts.

FanGraphs floated the idea of Andujar for Stroman & Giles. I don't hate the idea especially if the Yankees can be convinced to throw in a lottery ticket low-minors arm.

I think you have to pass on that if you're the Jays. You're selling high and buying very low on a potential asset but Andujar is not that great when you factor in the defense. Straight up for Stroman or Giles would be a win trade but not for both.

Atlanta is apparently willing to trade Ian Anderson for their playoff needs. That's the pitcher the Jays should be over. STroman, Giles, Sogard, Hudson and salary relief for Anderson and Inciarte or just Anderson. Where do you sign?

Andujar is just a bat. For some teams with limited payroll, he can be interesting.
The Jays aren't the Rays or the Pirates. They could just sign Castellanos in the offseason for similar production.

Ian Anderson would be a great pickup, but I doubt the Braves would deal him for 1.5 years of Stroman and Giles. AA inherited a loaded young team + farm system that will be good for many years even without adding talent via trade. He doesn't have a fading window and older stars like he did in Toronto from 2013-15. I doubt he's in any rush to trade his top prospects. Of course he has a history with Stroman, so maybe that factors in to his decision making, but Anderson is a top 25 prospect. It will be hard to pry him away.

The Twins still look like the most logical spot. Even if they are not willing to give up their top prospects, they still have some that are on the fringes of the top 100 and/or rising in Larnach, Balazovic, and Duran, and some lottery tickets in the lower minors that looks promising (Maciel, Urbina). I think there is a combination in there that could work. Plus their bullpen blowing up last night certainly doesn't hurt.

The rebuild started when the 2018 team failed to compete.

Phase 1 was to clear out the older position players so young players deemed ready to come up and get playing time. Phase 1 is continuing. More veterans will be cleared out. A very important point is that many players are determining which positions they will succeed at and fail at.

Atkins was very good at not hurting any veterans by benching them. R Martin did get benched but played a little catcher and IF. Maile must also have had his playing time cut.

Phase 2 and maybe a 3rd phase is the pitching. Rotation and pen. Roles in the pen.

I am curious to see how Atkins handles the veteran starters after the trade deadline.

For reference heading towards the deadline:

Past Calendar Year Stats

Hitters

2B Sogard (32): 313pa, 9.3b%/14.1k%, .323bip/.300avg, .181iso, 124wrc+, 4.4war650
RF Gurriel (25): 411pa, 5.6b%/23.8k%, .322bip/.287avg, .263iso, 129wrc+, 3.5war650
1B Smoak (32): 554pa, 14.4b%/23.6k%, .256bip/.226avg, .203iso, 110wrc+, 1.2war650
CF Grichuk (27): 628pa, 6.1b%/27.9k%, .303bip/.247avg, .210iso, 101wrc+, 1.4war650
3B Vladdy (20): 298pa, 10.1b%/17.8k%, .288bip/.256avg, .154iso, 98wrc+, 0.0war650
SS Galvis (29): 654pa, 5.2b%/22.9k%, .316bip/.267avg, .182iso, 98wrc+, 2.5war650
DH Tellez (24): 359pa, 5.3b%/29.0k%, .298bip/.246avg, .228iso, 96wrc+, 0.4war650
LF Biggio (24): 194pa, 17.0b%/28.4k%, .273bip/.208avg, .151iso, 93wrc+, 0.7war650
C Jansen (24): 366pa, 8.2b%/20.5k%, .249bip/.218avg, .157iso, 81wrc+, 3.6war650

UT McKinney (24): 312pa, 7.1b%/25.3k%, .278bip/.233avg, .198iso, 92wrc+, -0.4war650
OF Teoscar (26): 454pa, 9.7b%/33.9k%, .291bip/.216avg, .191iso, 85wrc+, 0.0war650
IF Drury (26): 315pa, 5.7b%/27.0k%, .260bip/.210avg, .155iso, 62wrc+, -0.8war650
C Maile (28): 192pa, 7.3b%/23.4k%, .250bip/.194avg, .091iso, 46wrc+, 1.4war650


CF Davis (27): 79pa, 3.8b%/24.1k%, .200bip/.160avg, .053iso, 9wrc+, -4.1war650
RF Alford (24): 8pa, 0.0b%/50.0k%, .000bip/.000avg, .000iso, -100wrc+, -16.3war650
LF Pompey* (26): ---
3B Urena (23): 132pa, 6.1b%/28.8k%, .410bip/.281avg, .058iso, 82wrc+, 1.5war650
SS Bichette (21): ----
2B Travis* (28): 167pa, 3.0b%/13.8k%, .233bip/.224avg, .143iso, 65wrc+, -2.0war650
1B Hanson (26): 177pa, 2.3b%/31.6k%, .286bip/.202avg, .095iso, 37wrc+, -3.3war650
DH Brito (26): 70pa, 10.0b%/32.9k%, .179bip/.129avg, .081iso, 14wrc+, -6.5war650
C McGuire (24): 33pa, 6.1b%/27.3k%, .350bip/.290avg, .290iso, 146wrc+, 7.9war650



Starters

RH Stroman (28): 26gs, 81era-, 78fip-, 89xfip-, 3.6war32
RH Buchholz (34): 14gs, 71era-, 95fip-, 103xfip-, 4.1war32
RH Shoemaker (32): 11gs, 75era-, 82fip-, 88xfip-, 3.6war32
LH Borucki (25): 14gs, 93era-, 98fip-, 115xfip-, 2.2war32
RH Thornton (25): 21gs, 119era-, 102fip-, 108xfip-, 1.4war32
RH Sanchez (26): 27gs, 134era-, 115fip-, 116xfip-, -0.1war32

RH Waguespack (25): 2gs, 137era-, 113fip-, 100xfip-, 0.8war32
RH Gaviglio (29): 12gs, 143era-, 109fip-, 99xfip-, -0.1war32
LH Pannone (25): 9gs, 150era-, 137fip-, 142xfip-, -0.4war32
RH R-Foley (23): 9gs, 123era-, 122fip-, 105xfip-, -0.5war32
LH Richard (35): 16gs, 154era-, 143fip-, 115xfip-, -1.6war32
RH Kingham (27): 9gs, 243era-, 185fip-, 142xfip-, -3.7war32


Relievers

RH Giles (28): 53.2ip, 57era-, 59fip-, 62xfip-, 1.8war65
RH Phelps (32): 14.2ip, 54era-, 76fip-, 109xfip-, 1.3war65
RH Hudson (32): 53.0ip, 62era-, 101fip-, 115xfip-, 0.8war65
LH Pannone (25): 41.2ip, 86era-, 89fip-, 109xfip-, 0.6war65
LH Mayza (27): 55.2ip, 94era-, 78fip-, 85xfip-, 0.5war65
RH Biagini (29): 74.0ip, 105era-, 110fip-, 96xfip-, 0.1war65
RH Gaviglio (29): 66.1ip, 104era-, 105xfip-, 93xfip-, 0.0war65

RH Reid-foley (23): 5.1ip, 0era-, 58fip-, 98xfip-, 1.8war65
RH Paulino (25): 6.2ip, 32era-, 99fip-, 100xfip-, 0.5war65
RH Waguespack (25): 9.0ip, 109era-, 63fip-, 70xfip-, 0.4war65
RH Shafer (26): 24.1ip, 66era-, 130fip-, 151xfip-, 0.3war65
RH Romano (26): 5.1ip, 110era-, 111fip-, 21xfip-, 0.0war65
RH Luciano (19): 27.2ip, 142era-, 137fip-, 151xfip-, -0.7war65
RH Kingham (27): 42.0ip, 148era-, 125fip-, 122xfip-, -0.9war65
RH Tepera (31): 34.0ip, 127era-, 142fip-, 122xfip-, -0.9war65
RH Law (28): 33.2ip, 138era-, 138fip-, 99xfip-, -1.1war65
RH Barnes (29): 11.2ip, 199era-, 87fip-, 120xfip-, -1.4war65

I wonder if Jays have enough to pry Anderson away. If you're the Braves I imagine it goes like this:

1) whats the point of going to the playoffs when you know you're not good enough to get past LA? We need to add.

2) can we add by trading guys like Bryce Wilson, Gohara, Allard instead of top tier prospects like Waters, Anderson and Pache?

3) if we trade top flight prospect like Anderson, is it only elite talent with control like Syndergaard that we would accept back or would we double dip and take a Giles/Stroman package

I agree with SK that the Twins make the most sense, especially with the pitching pipeline of the Tigers and turnaround of the CWS on the horizon.

Hmmm...that's interesting Mike. They also have struggled a little with Treinen in the bullpen. Maybe they take Stroman, Giles and Sogard.

Billy Beane did it again with his trade in 2017 which I think is more impressive than The Rays trade last year. They got Jesus Luzardo and Blake Treinen for Doolittle and Madson.

Atlanta and Toronto are in completely different spots on the success curve. If Stroman and/or Giles isn't enough to get someone like Anderson, then add a good, but far from the majors, prospect like Hiraldo (I just use that as an example) to the package. Atlanta can afford to grow a prospect - the Jays' management team likely doesn't have that much time.

Nigel, adding a low level prospect or 2 might be something the Braves would seriously consider, since they have severe restrictions on both this years and next years IFA signings.

With the Jays AA's preferred method was to hit a HR. Donaldson, Morrow for example. To get Rasmus he he filled out a long shopping list for St Louis. He has admitted that he overlooked a players character in the past. I believe he has solved that oversight. Martin, Donaldson and Tulo had strong characters IMO.

He did not seem shy to trade good young players like D Norris, Thor and H Alvarez.

There are only a few proven #1 pitchers available at any time.

Many teams have only 1 #1. NYY without Severino has none IMO. Boston has more than 1 in Sale, Price, Porcello and Eovaldi. They are all capable of coming up big in the playoffs.

Making the playoffs twice would solidify AA's contract situation. If he brings a WS he should have job security.

"He has admitted that he overlooked a players character in the past. I believe he has solved that oversight."

Wasn't an oversight, bpoz. He deliberately targeted those makeup issue guys (Yunel, Colby, Lawrie) because the cost to acquire them was less than their talent suggested they were worth. They all had their moments, but they never really lived up to their talent and the Jays only won after he got rid of them all.

In my view, this management team is now approaching the second critical strategic juncture of its tenure. The first was when to start the rebuild. The second will be how quickly they want to try and be competitive again and how to use its assets (prospects and available budget) to accomplish whatever it views as the right time frame. Central to the second issue is a need to do some asset reallocation. By that I mean, the team has a significant imbalance in its prospect pipeline between positon players and pitchers. It has a second problem with its prospect pipeline which is that, to be competitive in the shorter term, it may need more "near ready" prospects (and not the Drury type of prospects:)). All of that suggests that prospect for prospect swaps (position player prospect for pitcher prospect, or a short season prospect(s) for a near ready prospect) may be in the cards for this team. Those types of deals may be better suited to the offseason but I won't be surprised if something of that sort happens here at the deadline. Anyway, I hope they handle this strategic decision better than the first.

not sure I agree with that part, nigel.

Pearson
Pardinho
Manoah
Kloffenstein
Williams
Castillo
Winckowski

that's a pretty impressive stable of pitching prospects, imo, and most of them will touch AA or higher next year.

The earliest that I see any of those guys helping the team is 2021 and at least half the list is 2.5-3 years away. I suspect that we will see Pearson at some point next year but its hard to see him being a big contributor given his current development path.

You are right hypobole. They were easier to get.

Nigel, you mean A Diaz, R Grichuk for Woodman and C Greene type deals? ST Louis released/DFA them.

So Drury, DSJ etc for this or Int'l cap money. Very possible.

Ah I see where we part paths then Nigel - I don't see the bulk of our hitting prospects ready any earlier either.

Unless you are counting hitters that are only a couple years younger than stroman as prospects.

I don't disagree with what's been posted, but I'll try to make the case.

Andujar is three years younger than Castellanos and that alone makes him make more sense for the Jays. I don't think it is beyond the realm of possibility that in the next year or two Andujar could find a position or become closer to league average. He's had one year at the major league level. He'd be a hedge for Vlad not sticking at 3B or perhaps move to RF despite the Grichuk extension. I do agree with the thought that it would be a good trade for one of Stroman/Giles and substantially less good if it is for both. I think some here are overestimating the chances that Stroman will be with the Jays once he hits FA.

This is moot though because I doubt it'll happen, yet interesting and plausible enough to repeat the idea from FanGraphs.

"Pearson
Pardinho
Manoah
Kloffenstein
Williams
Castillo
Winckowski

that's a pretty impressive stable of pitching prospects, imo, and most of them will touch AA or higher next year"

You're overvaluing those prospects. If they all reach their ceiling then you have a nice young rotation. Right now Kloffenstein is looking more like a 3/4 and Pearson is still trying to develop a starters repertoire. Most SP's throwing over 100MPH NEVER make it to MLB and succeed as a SP. That is a fact.

You're also missing Nigel's point that there are teams that are unbalanced and can be better by trading away from their strength. Detroit has enviable pitching that we could target with our excess INF prospects.

I think it is more likely that prospect depth will be traded for veteran starters, not more prospects. The Stroman and Giles trades might be the last chance at acquiring medium to high upside young SP talent. Otherwise it will be free agency and prospects-for-vet trades going forward.

I said this before the Jays officially started the rebuild, I would much rather have a team of good young position players and veteran SP than the other way around. I suspect that is how the Jays will try to build their next competitive team.

uglyone - I agree if you are talking only about the position prospects that haven't yet reached the majors. When talking about imbalance I was including the newly graduated position player group (Jansen, Vladdy, Gurriel and Biggio).

In the big picture, what I'm really saying probably isn't more complicated than if the team wants to be competitive in the next two-three years they are likely to have to exchange one or more of Groshans, Moreno, Kirk, Hiraldo, Martinez, etc. for pitching and CF help (although I will acknowledge that Stevenson gets more interesting as the season progresses).

I get it Nigel but aside from vladdy....

Stroman 28 - gurriel 25
Borucki 25 - Jansen 24
Sanchez 26 - Biggio 24
Thornton 25 - Tellez 24

Groshans could push Guerrero from 3rd. Not Andujar. It would be a waste of time to give him the ABs.
He's a mostly a DH, You might want him to play 1 position and be the backup there, but that doesn't work very well for the Jays. It's not like the Jays are aiming for terrible defense at every position.

A good team trade bad players for good players.
Lots of people are trying to figure out what bad players the Yankees can trade to get the Jays' good players.
Not being a Yankees fan, I have no interest in this exercise.

It’s interesting how much the pendulum has swing in favour of valuing prospects over really good veteran players who could significantly impact a team’s postseason chances — in the case of Stroman and Giles, over the course of two (not one) seasons. I understand the desire to hoard elite prospects, but the extent to which players in that category have become essentially untouchable is remarkable. It will be interesting to see if some rebuilding/retooling teams start refusing to trade their impact veterans for a pittance (perhaps extending them instead, or collecting a draft pick for them).

swung (not swing)

They want to have a full rotation in Toronto and several arms competing for a spot in AAA every year.
I don't think they'll trade anyone of significance just to get a pitcher with a couple of years of control.

Next year the rotation looks like:
Shoemaker
Borucki
Thornton
Sanchez

(Paulino will be in the pen, out of options)

They'll probably sign another vet during the winter to complete the list and have the following guys in AAA

SRF
Waguespack
Merryweather
Zeuch
Murphy

And in AA, trying to force a promotion:
Perez
Diaz
Pearson
Winckowski
Castillo

And in the lower levels.

Kloffenstein
Pardinho
Luciano
Williams
Manoah, etc...

And then you add whatever pieces we'll collect by the end of the month.

If someone pays for Stroman and Giles and they deliver, teams might be more willing to spend, but by then, the Jays won't have much to sell.

"It’s interesting how much the pendulum has swung in favour of valuing prospects over really good veteran players who could significantly impact a team’s postseason chances..."

I've found that interesting too -- my pet theory is that the whole "flags fly forever" long-term thinking has gone out the window for the medium-term thinking of "the revenue of a good cheap team is better". We've lost the alliteration and it's
at best an oblique rhyme, but the business of baseball is business.

people say the pendulum has swung, yet the defending champs traded away a whole bunch of top prospects to win.

Allen looked fairly clearly safe at home to me, yet they challenged it. Certainly there was no obvious evidence he was out. I don't know who is making the challenge/no challenge decisions in the room for the Blue Jays, but I think they need to get somebody else to do it. I can't count the number of times they've made mistakes in that area, either not challenging a clearly bad call, or challenging when a call either looks correct, or is too close to call. Doesn't matter at this stage of the team's development, but when they are a contender it sure does.

that was fun to watch.

I miss Stro already.

Dan I wonder on some of those replays, like tonight, that rewarding the fielders has anything to do with the urge to go to replay - Gurriel, Sogard, and Danny played that so perfectly and the play was so damn close that you can almost believe it should have been an out anyways.

gotta say I find Font an extremely, extremely annoying choice for this tight well pitched game.

"people say the pendulum has swung, yet the defending champs traded away a whole bunch of top prospects to win."

Both Kimbrel and Sale were elite and came with 3 years of control. Yelich and Realmuto fit the same mould. Teams will pony up for multiple years of surplus value control.

Machado last year was elite, but was a rental, so the O's didn't even get a top 131(FG) guy, they got quantity.

That's why thinking Jays will settle for a Happ-like return for Marcus is totally ridiculous.

Grichuk is demonstrating in excruciating detail how narrow the path to success is for guys who strike out 30% of the time. I do appreciate that the team has fed him to the wolves defensively by playing him in CF but he looks to have slipped in RF as well - admittedly by the eye test.

I never liked the Grichuk extension, and I never found the arguments advanced in support of it especially convincing. But maybe he is just having an off year and will get back on a better path before too long.

The Jays could have skipped the Grichuk extension and given Stroman (say) a 6/$120m contract, and come out ahead in terms of value for money. As Buffett and AA liked to say, it’s better to buy a wonderful asset at a fair price than a fair asset at a wonderful price (I’m paraphrasing).

"I never liked the Grichuk extension, and I never found the arguments advanced in support of it especially convincing. But maybe he is just having an off year and will get back on a better path before too long."

I didn't like it either. I think value will be OK the bigger issue I have is how much it ties your choices and how easy it is to get that value on the market. Gurriel looks like a building block in left so your corner OF is now filled. What happens in the best offers you get back for deals are for corner OFers? What happens if Groshans needs to move to RF? I don't think the extension was in any way necessary because I think the value Grichuk brings is pretty easily replaceable.

But Grichuk is exactly the type of surplus value use of free agent money that you should be a fan of.

You mean they could be spending $20m per year instead of a discounted $12m to obtain his -0.2 fWAR?

Grichuk's projected value was more than $10m per year.

It was the definition of a contract based solely on surplus value calculations.

I wouldn't be surprised if Stroman ends up in Houston - the Astros and Jays seem to have similar valuation on players, resulting in a number of trades - as I've mentioned before I'd be happy if suspended pitcher Francis Martes is a secondary piece in the package.

Part of the calculus is that Stroman is worth less to the Jays for the remainder of this year than he's worth to other teams. The general principal might be 'You don't extend players when you're losing." but that's not an absolute.
There would have been no return in trading Grichuk now, had he not been extended.
He might still improve once AAA prospects start knocking at the door and if he does, then you can trade him since he's controllable.

At think it's best to keep him in right.

Jansen is gone on another slump. 1 for 18 in the last 7 games. Grichuk 2 for 21. Biggio 1 fo 16 (with 4 walks).  Drury 2 for 15. Some of that is caused by good pitching, but still.

"I wouldn't be surprised if Stroman ends up in Houston - the Astros and Jays seem to have similar valuation on players, resulting in a number of trades - as I've mentioned before I'd be happy if suspended pitcher Francis Martes is a secondary piece in the package."

I could see that. I think my preference would be Minnesota. Graterol, Balazovic, and Duran are all very interesting pitching prospects not that I think Jays should focus solely on pitchers. The system is not bereft of pitching talent, it's just mostly not very close to the majors right now.

It is less than a week to the deadline and Stroman likely pitched his last game as a Jay. I honestly expect to be disappointed with with what he is eventually traded for as the farm systems for a lot of the contenders are really lacking.

Maybe Houston moves on from Kyle Tucker while he still has some value, but other than that I see a player like Spencer Howard from Philly being the type of prospect that is going to headline a trade for Stroman.

I thought the Grichuk extension was unnecessary as well, but the one benefit is the team got his free agent years for three years/$29 million. So if he has a bounce back 2020 season he's likely still a trade asset. In general though, rushing to sign a 2 WAR talent to a five year deal when those types of players are not as valued as much in the market is not a good idea. This deal seems like the Jays banking on him improving, much like Smoak's looked like an overpayment at the time before he broke out. Not a risk I would have taken.

I had a well earned day off after a few weeks, so I played around with the following tool: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

The deadline deals I liked after matching up MTV ($) were as follows :

To Phillies:: Stroman (26.8), Hudson (3.4) - Total Value 30.20
To Blue Jays: Spencer Howard (17.7), Adam Hasely (14), Fransico Morales (4), Juan Nicasio (-4.9) - Total Value 30.80

To Cubs: Ken Giles (10.30) - Total Value 10.30
To Blue Jays: Brennan Davis (9.4), Riley Thompson (1) - Total 10.40

I agree with Shoeless. What we get back may end up being mediocre when judged about 7 years later.

The Drury/McKinney return is recent. I can see Happ, McKinney and Drury having little value for the rest of their careers.

Happ did give NYY a stronger playoff chance. So better than Sonny Gray. The having a better chance to get to the playoffs and winning some games is an important consideration. D Price in 2015 for us gave us a better chance.

I think he's already posted about this two or three times and maybe it's just that every new person that finds a baseball trade evaluator online just didn't see his posts.

Spifficus has shown how flawed that tool really is by punching in Jays players like Teoscar Hernandez who are ranked as Godly. He's convinced me the evaluations are inaccurate and a waste.

Just my $0.02

If we get slop back for Stroman instead of just signing him for 5x$20m I'll be even more annoyed with this FO, if that's possible.

Grichuk had a year before FA when they signed him. That means they bought his FA years at something like 12-13 per year (depending on what he’d get in his last arbitration eligible year). Of course, since he’s continued to tank since the signing, what he would have gotten in his arbitration year amount probably has gone down since the signing but that’s MMQ’ing. I said at the time I didn’t hate the deal but it was no bargain deal. I said last year at this time that Grichuk was far closer to being put out MLB than being a star. I said that for all the reasons we’ve seen this year. His offensive profile makes the potential for collapse significant.

Even if Stroman wants a 6/$150m contract, the Jays could manage it. They could also front-load it, since they are spending little on salaries over the next couple of years. Trading him now is also a reasonable option, *if* they can obtain good prospects for him.

The point is to spend on quality, not mediocrity (or worse). Unfortunately, Shapiro has a track record of doing this with outfielders (Swisher, Bourne, Grichuk).

This is the 1st year with only 1 trade deadline.

Oakland's new window opened fast. They succeeded last year and are doing it this year with a V weak rotation. But their pen is strong. I wonder what moves they make.

Milwaukee is in year 2 of their 6 year window. Just guessing about 6 years. I wonder what moves they will make.

Both are not rich teams.

If I had to guess, I would say Stroman is probably betting on himself. He was a 5.3 WAR pitcher in 2017 and looks on track to come close to that again this year. If Stroman repeats this performance in 2020, he will be in line for a very big pay day.

In retrospect, the time to extend him may have been last off-season. Perhaps then he would have considered 5/100.

Time for Stroman retrospectives. I'll start....

All-Time Jays SP, minimum 200ip:

ERA

1.Clemens 2.33
2.Halladay 3.39
3.Key 3.39
4.Stieb 3.42
5.Alexander 3.61
6.Stroman 3.71

FIP

1.Clemens 2.44
2.Halladay 3.43
3.Stroman 3.61
4.Key 3.67
5.Morrow 3.71



p.s. we're trading him at age 28 in the middle of maybe his best season likely for C prospects becuz reasons....

Swisher and Bourn are very unique definitions of mediocre, greenfrog.

Swisher was 3 or better WAR in 6 of the previous 7 seasons before signing with the Indians. The counterpoint is that he was entering his age 32 season. So he was Old, not Mediocre.

Bourn, of course, was coming off a string of successive defense-heavy star-level years.

I like Grichuk, and thought the deal was a decent relatively low impact risk in today's market, but he doesn't have the track record those two had. He was someone who seemed to be an average player over a full year (which hadn't happened) while maintaining a 30% K rate. Last year, that dropped 4%, amongst other things, so I can understand the team thinking they had that baseline, and were possibly getting a new and improved Grichuk.

As for the trade simulator, dalimon5, I wouldn't consider it a waste, necessarily, just more toy than tool. It tends to overvalue the mediocre and cheap, and undervalue immediate value for contenders and their potential playoff impacts. That's why you see so much bulk-for-stars trades on the board.

"It tends to overvalue the mediocre and cheap, and undervalue immediate value for contenders and their potential playoff impacts"

that may in fact be a valid criticism of all surplus value calculations, not just this tool.

there were plenty of warning signs on Swisher and Bourn, too. swisher's were definitely age related. Bourn had even more: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/is-michael-bourn-about-to-decline/

Jon Heyman
✔
@JonHeyman
Blue Jays like Deivi Garcia. Belief is Yankees would only trade him for Syndergaard or someone they value similarly.


I also like Deivi.

to me he'd be a 65fv guy if he was 5 inches taller.

He was a 5.3 WAR pitcher in 2017 and looks on track to come close to that again this year.

Stroman's year-by-year FIPs are quite narrowly banded, whereas his ERAs are all over the map. He outperformed his FIP in 2017 as he is doing now.

Oh, I agree with you, uglyone, that there were definitely risks involved with those deals. The main thing I was arguing about was the categorization of them as mediocre, because they certainly weren't that.

Also, I have to agree with you on the other two posts as well - surplus value assumes a neutral environment where money and value are interchangeable. The trade deadline is definitely not a neutral time. And a deal headlined by Deivi would definitely pique my interest, certainly more than anything else the Yankees might part with.

As for Stroman, I always figured the Samardzija deal was probably a good starting point for an extension (keeping in mind Stroman still had another year left to go in arbitration). I always viewed him as a good #2 starter, and that's what the Samardzija deal was structured as, as well. Maybe tack on an option or something, or inflate it by %15 for current times, or something like that. There is an inherent discount for not going to the open market.

fwar = fip war
ra9war = (all) runs war

Stroman:

Yr1: 20gs, 3.4fwar (5.4/32gs), 2.5ra9war (4.0/32gs)
Yr2: 4gs, 0.4fwar (3.2/32gs), 1.3ra9war (10.4/32gs)
Yr3: 32gs, 3.4fwar (3.4/32gs), 2.2ra9war (2.2/32gs)
Yr4: 33gs, 3.2fwar (3.1/32gs), 4.9ra9war (4.8/32gs)
Yr5: 19gs, 1.4fwar (2.4/32gs), -0.4ra9war (-0.7/32gs)
Yr6: 21gs, 2.9fwar (4.4/32gs), 3.2ra9war (4.9/32gs)

TOT: 129gs, 14.6fwar (3.6/32gs), 14.1ra9war (3.5/32gs)

a few interesting things to glean:

- Stroman is a nice example of why FIP is valued so much - it just seems to be a much more consistent indicator of true performance level, while runs allowed bounces all over the place in small samples.

- over the larger sample, the runs usually come in around the fip in the end.

- despite some concerns early on, the theory that Stroman would be a career fip-underachiever due to his height not creating enough tilt and thus making homers a likely career problem has been proven wrong by now, as his fip and runs have pretty much lined up perfectly now here midway through his career.

- a 3.5war-type pitcher (which stroman has shown to be by both fip and runs now) is a legit #1 SP, though not a true Ace, and a guy you'd ideally have as a #2 on a contender.

- at the very least, Stroman has shown that last year's poor performance was most likely the result of trying to pitch through an injury - an injury that he's now fully recovered from.

- stroman is in fact on track for his best career year in terms of fwar, and 2nd best by ra9war with an outside chance of having his best year there too.

spiff - i think he's a clear step up from a guy like Shark.

Shark started starting at age 27, was pretty much league average for a while, then signed his big deal at the end of his 31yr old season

Age 27: 28gs, 2.7fwar (3.1/32), 2.6ra9war (3.0/32)
Age 28: 33gs, 3.0fwar (2.9/32), 1.3ra9war (1.3/32)
Age 29: 33gs, 4.4fwar (4.3/32), 4.2ra9war (4.1/32)
Age 30: 32gs, 2.3fwar (2.3/32), 0.6ra9war (0.6/32)
Age 31: 32gs, 2.3fwar (2.3/32), 3.1ra9war (3.1/32)

TOT: 163gs, 14.2fwar (2.8/32), 11.5ra9war (2.3/32)

Significantly older, worse track record, and a track record of underachieving his FIPs.

The Keone Kela situation in Pittsburgh is a perfect example of the "makeup issues" convo bpoz and I had yesterday.

Last day of 2017 ST, he rushes through his last appearance. Gets called out by teammates for lack of effort. Claims he was trying not to get injured. Teammate comments range from "He always has an excuse" to "Get rid of this guy". Gets sent to the minors to start the season.

Traded to Pirates for less than his talent's worth.

Allegedly gets in an altercation with a FO member. Suspended. Unapologetic when asked about this. Won't say it did or didn't happen. Claims team gave no explanation for suspension.

The Astros just DFA'd Tony Kemp and he would make a nice replacement for Sogard (whom I expect the Jays to trade) - can move around/LHH/lots of control - Jays will likely have to trade for him.

The smart money would be on Kemp being a better player than Sogard going forward.

Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
nypost.com/2019/07/25/whe… Gibbons and Leyland sent Stroman out in sudden-death games and both say contenders should be motivated to get him. Column includes current state of market for the RHP. #Bluejays #Yankees #Astros #Braves #Phillies

Clint @_ClintB_
8m
“The number of suitors and quality of offers have both increased with recent success and the Blue Jays internally believe they now have a floor with which they are comfortable and that bidding can further increase the potential return in the coming days”

Big moment for the FO here.

Last year when Happ was viewed as the top SP available at the deadline, I got excited about the possible return and we know how that turned out - of course, Stroman is much better, younger and has an extra year but I'm going to contain my enthusiasm until the trade in made - I really hope the FO is over their seeming obsession with near ready MLB prospects.

It has also been reported by Morosi that Minnesota is interested in Stroman, Giles and Hudson.

re: Kemp....could be a nice pick up

Also from Sherman. This should make some folks feel better.

"The Yankees are not currently perceived as a front-runner. They have not pursued him with the same ardor as J.A. Happ last year and the Blue Jays like other contenders’ farm systems better."

Tulo has announced his retirement.

That's at least 4 in a row I agree with, uglyone. :)

He (Samardja) was the one that popped in my mind, and i knew he was older, but I forgot he was an underperformer as often as he was. I was looking at FIP, but I had just argued earlier in the thread that I don't think FIP fully captures an outlier like Stroman, whose extreme ground ball rate really limits extra base hits, but makes him more vulnerable to subpar infields (or at least thought I was implying as much when I talked about his xWOBA). It's interesting to note, and I didn't spot it til just now, that Stroman's IFFB rate is way above his career rate.

Now, as a strong #2 starter who will be 30 in his first year after free agency, Zimmerman might be the closest fit in recent times. At first I was thinking Corbin, but that deal's so backloaded, and that last season was such a spike that it just feels off. Either way, those two (once you normalize Corbin's deal to a standard distribution) are probably the comparables. Err on the short side of the deal due to Short Righty Syndrome - whether you believe it's a thing or not, all that's needed are enough teams to believe it to impact the bidding a bit - and you're probably looking at 5/100 or so for his free agent years. Of course, he wouldn't be a free agent if he were to sign a contract now, so that cuts quite a bit into that, but then you probably won't be letting the market factor in SRS, so... *shrug*

The Mets are apparently intent on trading Sydergaard. He is the one that got away.

Unconventional idea. Trade Pearson and Groshans and whatever else other than Bichette for Syndergaard. Keep and attempt to re-sign Stroman.

Syndergaard
Stroman
Shoemaker
Sanchez
Someone else

Bichette
Gurriel
Vlad
Biggio
Smoak
Jansen
Grichuk
Alford
Sogard


That's an interesting team.

“the Blue Jays internally believe they now have a floor”

Some might say there is nothing this FO likes better in any given situation than having a floor.

“If we get slop back for Stroman instead of just signing him for 5x$20m I'll be even more annoyed with this FO, if that's possible.”

Yup. This may be a career defining moment for Atkins. A bad deal will be a massive turn off for an already dwindling fan base, including this one.

More important than getting a “top 50” or “top 100” prospect is how good the prospect actually is, and what kind of trajectory he is on. And remember that most highly-rated prospects never become as good as Stroman and Giles already are.

Isn't it odd that most baseball evaluators outside of TO believe the Jays should trade Stroman and Giles and that returns should be quite good. There seems to be a lot of unnecessary negtivity here.

Per Mark Carig:

"Impression is that trading for Noah Syndergaard would require a top 30 prospect and a couple of other solid pieces, one rival exec said earlier today."

He's a year younger comes with one extra year of control.

I think it’s that the FO hasn’t yet earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to trades. They have made some decent ones (Grichuk, Diaz, the Osuna salvage trade) and some dubious ones (Chavez, Solarte, McKinney/Drury). And rightly or wrongly, moves like replacing EE with Morales and the Garcia signing and the Grichuk extension are probably causing some fans to question the FO’s ability to properly evaluate major-league talent, even if they’ve made a lot of good signings as well (Happ, Shoemaker, Galvis, Sogard, Smoak extension).

Also, they still haven’t made a *great* trade, the way that AA did (Donaldson, Napoli/Rivera (for Wells), Estrada, Travis).

Tulo has announced his retirement.
Saw that - I'm ready to eat some crow. I thought he still had something left in the tank.

Does that mean  the Jays save the 18M left on his contract?

Yeah, but he's not having a good year and he's not without health concerns.
It's just that the Yanks don't trust their defense and would rather have a guy with 9+K/9.

Donaldson was great, but who cared about Napoli? Certainly not AA.
The Tigers were desperate to unload Travis.
Estrada was traded for Adam Lind.
Lind was with Toronto 9 years. One of the few position players developed by the Jays in the last 20 years.
Lind could rake, but couldn't hit lefties. Trading Lind so the coach couldn't pencil him against a lefty was one of AA's *great* trade.

AA gave up Lawrie in the trade for Donaldson.
To get Lawrie he traded the last 2 years of Marcum.
Marcum was comparable to Stroman. I like Stroman better, ERAs of 3.93 vs 3.76. Each won up to 13 games as a Jays. Marcum fell off a cliff at 31. Stroman is 28.
AA replaced Marcum with Jo-Jo Reyes the following year.

You know, those are not really great memories?

Man this front office is something else.

Vlad is the only thing holding this together.

Does that mean the Jays save the 18M left on his contract?

Don't think so. Pretty sure the Yankees save the rest of this years salary though.

TSN is reporting that the Jays are "not being offered top-tier prospects" for Stroman. Maybe the FO is leaking this current reality to tamp down fan expectations.

Andy Martino ✔ @martinonyc Source: Blue Jays have told interested teams that they might not trade Stroman, but extend him. Unclear if this is a res possibility or a negotiating tactic

It depends what they mean by top tier. If it means a team's #1, then no it is likely not happening. I tend to believe more credible reports that good offers are being made but have never thought #1's would be in play. Jeff Passan says Stroman is now the first choice of those looking for starting pitching.

Probably should be the #1 choice. Though I guess Thor might still despite the question marks.

I think Bauer is showing last year was a bit of a fluke, and that's the only year he's ever been better than stro.

And I think stro has been just plain better than bumgarner for a while now.

I think a team that figures they have a chance to win this year will want Bumgarner. He's been fantastic his last 6 starts (ERA 2.00, WHIP 0.97, 41 K vs just 6 BB). Whatever his problem was earlier this year, he seems to be back to his all-star form, and we all know how amazing he was in the 2014 post-season. Interesting how his hitting has fallen apart, though. After producing OPS numbers of .755, .743, .629 and .721 from 2014 - 2017, he's been under .400 last year and this year.

Stroman's been pitching very well, though, and should bring a pretty high return. If they can't get something really good, I don't think they should trade him.

I'm not shocked at all by the news that teams aren't going to give top prospects for Stroman, a No. 3 (at times 2) starter. Maybe someone blinks at the last second.

These are likely more the types of deals they're being offered:

Braves
Patrick Weigel
Joey Wentz
Lower level prospect

Cardinals
Daniel Ponce de Leon
Junior Fernandez

Twins (with Hudson)
Trevor Larnach
Lewis Thorpe
Griffin Jax

Rays
Shane McClanahan
Josh Lowe
Lower level prospect

The next tier

Yankees
Estevan Florial
Luis Gil
Lower level prospect

Cubs
Brailyn Marquez
Brennen Davis

A's
Sheldon Neuse
Daulton Jefferies
Lower level prospect

Brewers
Aaron Ashby
Drew Rasmussen
Lower level prospect

Astros
J.B. Bukauskas
Abraham Toro
Enoli Paredes

Phillies
Spencer Howard
Enyel de los Santos
Lower level prospect

And the offers for Giles will likely be lower... unless you actually bundle Stroman and Giles.

Tulo has announced his retirement

That spring training homer Tulo hit against Stroman will forever live in my heart.

Over the last 6yrs, 154 pitchers have thrown at least 450ip as an SP (I.e. the minimum IP that got me closest to 5 sp per team) - Stroman ranks 38th in era-, 21st in fip-, 21st in xfip-.

Over the last 3yrs, 153 SP have thrown at least 180ip - Stroman ranks 35th in era-, 28th in fip-, 30th in xfip-.

This year, 151 SP have thrown at least 40ip - Stroman ranks 12th in era-, 23rd in fip-, 39th in xfip-.



All due respect Marc but I just don't see how you call that a #3 SP by any definition, when all the numbers say he's a high end #2 at worst, but more realistically a low end #1.

Oops that 6yr split should be 400ip and he ranks 31st, 21st, and 20th.

I have said several times that I have significant concerns about the team’s pro scouting department but I think it’s not fair to say that this FO is terrible at trades or shouldn’t be trusted in that regard. They haven’t really tried any trades of any significance in their tenure. Of the minor trades they have done, they’re probably batting a little over .500. On this topic, the area of my concern is the FO’s seeming risk aversion; not that they’re bound to make a bad trade.

I predicted Tulo would overcome his injuries and settle at 60% of his peak performance from his Denver days. I was wrong wrong...very wrong.

Marc, I would take the Twins or A's package if I couldn't get a better one by packaging both Stroman and Giles. I do think there are those prospects in between the studs and the one's you propose which are too unpolished. Guys like Balazovic and Anderson.

"I'm not shocked at all by the news that teams aren't going to give top prospects for Stroman, a No. 3 (at times 2) starter. Maybe someone blinks at the last second."

I am hoping someone does based on Stroman's recent form and the lack of alternatives out there. The deals you mention are still pretty decent value (although Brewers and Cardinals returns especially look light to me).I think the Astros are in a bit of a weird place because they have 2 elite prospects (with 1 struggling this year) and then a pretty big dropoff so if you don't want to deal around Tucker/Whitley, you have to build a trade around Bukauskus who has been awful in AA this year which is a massive dropoff.(Although someone like Corbin Martin might be a good piece for a team willing to wait for him to come back)

Not surprised about Tulo. He had an excellent career but injuries kept him short of the HoF. His decline phase was very steep (WRC+ going 130-140 range to 100-105 range very quickly). He was a fantastic and fun player to watch in Colorado and his trade to Toronto was super exciting. Unfortunately, he was a husk of his former self. His biggest career highlight to me was the momentous spring training homer he hit against us this year.

When Atkins said during the offseason that he didn't think Tulo could be an every day player, he was no doubt advised of this by the medical people who rehabbed Tulo. Tulo, being the proud athlete he is, said " Nah, I can still play. I'll show you !"
In the end his body betrayed him yet again. I don't know if the Jays would have made the playoffs for two years if AA doesn't make the trade to get him though.

Tulo joins Larry Walker as a Colorado player who was on a HOF trajectory but couldn't stay healthy in his later years.

Maybe when the Jays FO say they have a floor offer for Stroman, it actually means they have a ballpark extension agreement with his agent.

When Atkins said during the offseason that he didn't think Tulo could be an every day player, he was no doubt advised of this by the medical people who rehabbed Tulo.

And, frankly, applied no small amount of common sense. An oft injured aging player coming off 1.5 seasons of inactivity and two heel surgeries... You don't need to be clairvoyant to see how that will likely play out.

but couldn't stay healthy in his later years.

Tulowitzki couldn't stay healthy in his early years either. He managed 140 games just 3 times in his 20s.

[Tulowitzki's] biggest career highlight to me was the momentous spring training homer he hit against us this year.

Oh, I think you have to go with one of the two huge home runs in the 2015 post-season. Especially Game 3 against Texas, with the team facing elimination.

I was not excited by the trade that brought him here. ("Meh" was my comment.) I'd looked at his home-road splits and didn't think he was an offensive upgrade on Reyes (and he wasn't) or what the team needed at that particular moment (someone like David Price.) I didn't fully appreciate what an enormous defensive upgrade he'd turn out to be.

The Jays squeezed out the last useful year from Tulo, and since Reyes turned out to have no useful time left, it was a definite trade win for the Jays. Ended up with the same WAR (on bbref) as Nomar, a player with a very similar career path.

Random thing Noticed yesterday that Detroit is playing Seattle, and was taken aback by how different their games played totals are - 106 to 98 at this point in the season. A few other teams are at 100 games played, and Seattle has the most (those season openers in Japan boost them), but this seems like a crazy difference. Detroit has 4 off days and 2 double headers left. Seattle has 10 off days left. Toronto has a weird schedule - looks like games the next 20 days (I thought this wasn't allowed?), then 4 off days from Aug 15th to the 29th.

This upcoming 20 straight game stretch is going to break whatever pitching staff is left to deal with the games. I hope a few of the injured make it back in time to pick up some innings.

"I am hoping someone does based on Stroman's recent form"

And/or his non-recent form.

Oakland is an ultra cheap club. They'll probably try to invest in one of their own players with an extension if at all possible.

Milwaukee does things strangely. They're loaded with outfielders but were not able to convert one of them into a starter. They didn't fix that over the winter and now it looks like their rotation is down to Davies, Gio Gonzalez and Chase Anderson. I don't expect them to do  much until they reach the last year of Yelich's contract in 2022.

So yeah, 2 bargain shopping teams.

Just saw Joel Sherman on MLB network. He says Jays have heard enough in terms of Stroman offers
that they feel they can get 100% value deal done and may use next 2 or 3 days to see if they can squeeze 125%.
He lists 6 teams as still in play - Houston, Minnesota, Atlanta, San Diego, Philly, NY.

How would we feel about Graterol and Larnach from Twins for Stro and Hudson. This was suggested by Morosi who then then speculates Giles could go on his own for top 50 prospect.

“How would we feel about Graterol and Larnach from Twins for Stro and Hudson”

Would do that. That’s one top 50 and another top 100. Both guys with legit impact player upside.

I think 2 50fv prospects would be a fine framework for a deal, though I'd be doing the due diligence on Brusdar's shoulder issues. Bonus points for such a great name.

Graterol has missed a significant amount of time with the shoulder injury, has had Tommy John, doesn't have the biggest frame and lacks a third reliable pitch. Yes he can pitch 97-100 but can he do that, stay healthy and be a starter? I'm concerned and would rather play it safe with Jhoan Duran or Balazovic.

Despite their investment in an advanced performance department the Jays have struggled in the past two years to keep pitching prospects healthy.

I think that's a fair deal for Stroman but if they want Hudson, too, I'm asking for a third piece from the lower levels.

There seem to be a lot of (I’m assuming calculated) leaks coming out of the Jays front office about potential trades and a possible Stroman extension. It’s very different from how Anthopoulos preferred to operate.

There is always a lot of BS out there about how the trade market will unfold (a bit like the recent predictions about where Kawhi would end up). The reality on July 31 is going to contradict a lot of commentator predictions (not that those commentators care; they know that people have short memories and that trade rumours are a commodity).

Wouldn't do any of them.  Larnach is the big one, and I'm not a fan.

I would prefer Balazovic to Duran if not Graterol. And yes, due diligence must be done on Graterol.....is very talented if healthy.

I like the upside on graterol. I think FG's 50fv grade on him underrates him somewhat. 1 plus plus pitch, another plus pitch, and a 3rd one with potential. He's destroyed levels where he's one year young for the level and done very well in levels where He's been 2yrs young...including this year in AA. though he has an August birthday so maybe he doesn't get full credit for being full 1 or 2 years young for the levels. Plenty of Ks, keeps the ball on the ground, and doesn't walk too many despite a poor command grade.

I understand the appeal of Graterol (albeit with Marc’s caveats) but I think Larnach’s stats point to some major red flags. His line at A+ was very BABIP heavy and he’s only now at an age appropriate level. He isn’t showing much power or patience.

Is Larnach a better prospect than Forrest Wall?

i'm with you - don't really like Larnach's pro line at all so far. a lot of babip, too much swing and miss, and his raw power hasn't shown much in game power. doesn't look like he has a lot to offer in the field, either.

hard to know with the short track record, of course. but like all college guys imo he's a bit too old for it to be too safe to dream on his upside too much.

Larnach is rated #7 in Twins system by BA while Wall is not even top 30. BA says, in current update, that Larnach is one of the best hitters in FSL who has worked to improve power to pull side and who could end up as classic corner OF slugger.

People need to stop treating minor league stats like major league ones. High Babip in the minors does not signal future regression the way it does in the majors. It often just signals that a player is much better than other players at that level.

People need to listen and learn on how to interpret what babip means to an MILB stats line.

I'd do the deal for 2 of Graterol/Duran/Balazovic.

I wonder what acquiring Francis Martes (suspended/TJS) and Tony Kemp (DFA) would cost the Jays - that's the kind of buy low opportunity I'd gamble on.

One test of the FO's nerves may come on July 29 or 30, when they may have to decide whether to give Stroman one more start. Another start might help the FO extract maximum talent from another team in an eleventh-hour trade before the deadline. But it would also risk a drop in Stroman's market value as a result of an injury or bad start.

I think they would prefer to move him before then (being naturally risk-averse), but sometimes the best offers materialize in the last 24 or 48 hours before the deadline.

Of course, waiting until the 11th hour runs the risk that other sellers may drop their prices or the pool of sellers become larger.

I don't think there is any chance Stroman makes his next start as a Jay unless they are keeping him.

I’m perfectly well aware of how to interpret BABIP in the minors. It may well mean what you say or it may have an (significant) element of fluke. Look at the variability in Vladdy’s BABIP as he came up. For me, a BABIP of .390 for someone who isn’t a speedster, at any level, anywhere, is a potential red flag. As you say, it may not be a problem. Larnach’s offensive line is BA heavy and there are questions about his defence. However, the scouts who love his tools certainly know more about prospects than I do, so, who knows.

I think the chances are he gets dealt before then. I’m just pointing out that the FO’s preference as to timing may not align with the optimal time for a trade, given the dynamics of the market and the poker game that the FO is currently involved in (like it or not).

The public reaction to Atkins' comment - including by Stroman - is annoying. When he says they are willing to look at extending him, it shouldn't mean he is lying. It SHOULD mean that they aren't FORCED to trade him and will keep him and work an extension if nobody offers them enough to make it worth their while to trade him.

That is just being smart.

"For me, a BABIP of .390 for someone who isn’t a speedster, at any level, anywhere, is a potential red flag. "

I like to look at the gap between babip and average. the bigger the gap, the more risk I see in it. Larnach needed a .389babip to post just a .316 average. that's pretty worrisome. that reminds me of Alford's good years, and not only indicates that that babip isn't truly being earned, at least not sustainably, but leaves little room for error after a babip correction.

Vladdy's different - his huge babip was actually completely supported by his batting average. in AA his .402babip was matched by a .402 avg. In AAA, incredibly, he posted an average 20pts HIGHER than his babip - .322babip, .342avg - which is kinda bonkers. Not only does it indicate that his babip was actually earned, but also that he'll still be an excellent hitter for average even when that babip corrects to a more reasonable mlb level.

theScore ✔ @theScore · 19h Stroman staying put? https://thesco.re/2GwdMGH

Marcus Stroman ✔ @MStrooo6 That’s news to me. Lol

uglyone - that is funny

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Jon Morosi
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Source: #BlueJays and #Nats have been in contact on possible trades involving Ken Giles or Daniel Hudson. @MLBNetwork @MLB

Hmmmm... Will Crowe?

Giles + Hudson for Soto. Let's gete it done!

Heh. Maybe not. :)

In my opinion, the FO is playing a high-stakes poker game and therefore should play to win. If the offers are still substandard at the time of Stroman’s next scheduled start, don’t cave and accept one of those offers. Let Stroman pitch the game. Go down to the wire if necessary. Be steely, not scaredy.

Atkins should have done this last year with Happ, if only for practice. But there’s no time like the present to get started.

A reliable source (Joel Sherman) says that offers are not sub standard. I agree with SK that Stroman will not pitch Monday and it is probable that a deal will be finalized by then. As for Happ, it is likely there were no other offers of consequence as he was pitching like shit in July and was highly overrated by some to begin with.

Jamie Campbell
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At the moment, the Blue Jays are not being offered top tier prospects for Marcus Stroman, according to a source. That could change prior to Wednesday.
1:47 PM - 25 Jul 2019

Joel Sherman, a lead commentator on MLB network is far more credible than Jamie Campbell. And his comments were made today, not yesterday as were Campbell's.

There is so spin and BS out there that I put little stock in Sherman’s report, which sounds like something the Jays would leak to try to stoke the market for Stroman.

If Rosenthal makes a similar report (after hearing from multiple sources), though, I’ll put some stock in it.

I will agree that there is a lot of BS out there. However, I do find Joel Sherman to be the 2nd most reliable source of information behind only Rosenthal. The report he gave this morning was quite detailed and believable.

Yeah, it's always tough this time of year to filter the pure BS from the natural fluidity of the situation. Rosenthal is definitely a king with a bow-tie for a crown. Sherman's pretty good, too. The local guys bring surprising nuggets, and I've learned not to ignore Heyman's Mystery Team Alerts.

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Keegan Matheson
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Thomas Pannone will come up and start Monday for the #BlueJays.

Stroman scheduled* for Tuesday*. LOL