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Features Blue Jays at Tampa Bay, 5-7 August
The road trip (5-2 so far!) concludes in Florida.


The Rays have won their last 6 games and they've needed every one of them. At the moment they're locked in a very tight battle for one of the two Wild Card spots. The Rays are two games behind Cleveland, which holds the first one, and essentially deadlocked with Oakland for the second.

Have they endured any misfortune? You bet they have. Last year's Cy Young winner, Blake Snell, has gone 6-7 and is currently on the IL. So is Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 1.86), who along with Austin Meadows, their best hitter, was part of last year's haul for Chris Archer. Neither Snell nor Glasnow is expected back before the end of this month, at the earliest. Yet another starter, Yonny Chirinos, hit the IL today and is expected to miss four weeks.

Have they had any good fortune? Well, they found Travis d'Arnaud wandering around the scrap heap, and the former Jays prospect is hitting .283/.359/.543 since becoming a Devilish Fish. If the Mets had seen that coming, I'm betting they might not have released him

Matchups? Well, it's Tampa. who knows.

Mon 5 Aug. Waguespack (2-1, 4.80) vs Morton (12-3, 2.78)
Tue 6 Aug  Thornton (4-7, 5.23) vs TBD
Wed 7 Aug  TBD vs McKay (2-1, 4.38)
Posted by Magpie on Monday, August 05 2019 @ 05:15 PM EDT.
Blue Jays at Tampa Bay, 5-7 August | 135 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
bpoz - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#379172) #
Somehow you can make a trade in August so any contender would want a player that can help them. Of course it is not a trade if the contender gets the player and his Ex team gets nothing.

Astrubal Cabrera just joined Washington after Texas DFA'd him Aug 1 and released him Aug 3. Coincidence or fishy?

You can still trade minor league players in August it seems.

Brock Stewart is on our 40 man roster so he may or may not be a minor league player.
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uglyone - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#379180) #
man Bo gets all sorts of power in that swing.

but the quality pitches he get remind me of my earlier impression that Vladdy never seemed to have the luxury of getting the rookie treatment. Maybe it was all the hype, maybe it was that there were no other threats in the lineup, but it sure seemed to me that Vladdy was getting pitcher's A-stuff right from the get go. None of that challenge-with-the-fastball stuff, and all living on the corners and nasty breaking stuff. Maybe i'm wrong about that but it sure seemed that way to me.

of course, in the long run, that only helps him, so it's all ok.

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uglyone - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#379181) #
not that Bo is getting easy cheese either, of course. His swing is reaching all sorts of pitches on the edge of the zone and further.
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Spifficus - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#379182) #
It seemed the same to me, too - a lot of pitches on the edges (and some unfavourable calls with that).

That's why I can't wait til they settle in with something looking like Bo, Vlad, Lourdes and Cavan at the top. That's a top 4 of hitters who can really punish mistakes, and still spoil good pitches (or take them, in Biggio's case).
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uglyone - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#379183) #
Maybe some data to back it up from Pitch Info (from FG):

4-seamer Percentage (min 20pa):

1.Urena 50.3%
2.Maile 45.0%
3.Bichette 43.9%
4.McKinney 43.0%
5.Sogard 42.2%
...
14.Tellez 35.6%
15.Davis 35.4%
16.Smoak 34.2%
17.Grichuk 33.0%
18.Vladdy 32.7%


Zone%

1.Davis 54.3%
2.Hanson 52.3%
3.Urena 51.7%
4.Sogard 51.4%
5.Maile 50.5%
...
14.Grichuk 43.7%
15.Smoak 43.6%
16.Brito 42.7%
17.Vladdy 42.4%
18.Bichette 41.5%


Vladdy right at the bottom in both categories, with the only two threatening veterans in the lineup Smoak and Grichuk the only other two in the bottom 5 in both - though he's had rougher treatment than either of them, too. Meanwhile, the guys near the top are all rooks or AAAA types that the pitchers feel free to challenge more.

Bo with the interesting split so far - plenty of 4 seamers, but not much in the zone. This could just be due to how aggressive he is early in the count so far, though.

Again, though, this is only a good thing for Vladdy in the longrun.
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Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#379185) #
Nice job by Waguespack to pick up his defense. Asking a pitcher to get five outs in the inning... not recommended.

Is it just my impression or have most of young Vlad's errors comes from his manos de piedra?
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Nigel - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#379186) #
Pitching to Bichette looks like it’s going to be a challenge. Vladdy and Biggio have pretty clear happy zones and some pretty clear places where they struggle (at least for now). Bichette’s happy zone appears to extend from his neck to his ankles in and out. Its going to be interesting to see how the league adjusts. I can’t see an obvious answer but there will be one.
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Nigel - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#379187) #
On the other hand, Fisher does not look difficult to get out.
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Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#379188) #
But that fly ball went straight into his glove.
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uglyone - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#379190) #
there's a lot to like about Wagu. his milb peripherals were always more encouraging than most of the borderline pitching "prospects" we've added.
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uglyone - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#379191) #
you'd hope that mcguire would just stay up now no matter what happens with maile.
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pubster - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#379193) #
I think Waguespack was acquired for Aaron Loup.



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Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#379194) #
Well, now they're just screwing up their spot in the draft.
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85bluejay - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#379195) #
It could be pointed out that Waguespack is one of those borderline pitching "prospects" the jays added last year - In fact as a non-drafted amateur signing by the Phillies, he's the definition of the borderline pitching "prospect".
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uglyone - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#379196) #
i thought that's what I said?
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SK in NJ - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#379197) #
I think if one of Waguespack, Thornton, Pannone, Merryweather, Hatch, Johnston, etc, turns into a capable big league starter, the team will be pretty happy with that. The acquisition cost for each of those players was relatively small (an injured Donaldson with a month of control left unfortunately falls under that category). If they hit on more than one, or some turn into big league RP's, that's also a good outcome. It's the bigger deals where there is a bit more expectations (Kay/SWR might be the only one, although on a much lower scale there is Paulino/Perez).
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scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 06:58 AM EDT (#379199) #
I love watching McGuire. The way is sets up and offers a nice target and then finds ways to bring pitches towards the strike zone. That pick up was great too and came when needed.

They can keep Maile on the IL until September and it's a non-factor, but they could also use his 40 roster spot if they need it. They are so deep at catching, Maile definitively needs to go.

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scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 07:04 AM EDT (#379200) #
It looks like waguespack is going to be a decent 6th or 7th starter for the next couple of years.
He's executing. Not just throwing all his pitches for strike or out of the zone as needed, but he looked into his hats a bunch of times to figure out what to do.

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scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 07:13 AM EDT (#379201) #
The thing with the zone stuff is that a guy like Sogard will keep fouling up pitches and  crank the number up while a guy like Maile will get attacked because he's an automatic out.

Bichette will not take, but will put the bat violently on anything that's close.
Bichette is a different hitter with 2 strikes, the leg kick quiets down. I think he chokes some also.

Hanson was released this week. He couldn't hit in Buffalo either.

Bichette's interviews are great as well.

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greenfrog - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#379204) #
On Sanchez’s start with Houston:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-astros-may-have-salvaged-another-pitchers-career/
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scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#379205) #
With the Jays, Sanchez was the one selecting every pitch.
For the most part, he focused on what pitch he felt was working that day.
The biggest problem with Sanchez was the walks.
In one game he walked 2, hit one batter and striked out 6.
That's good for a 2.71 FIP, which is good, but the other 12 outs were made by the best defense in the league.
I have no idea how much shaked his catcher. Is that trackable?

By the way, Travis Bergen is coming near the end of his rehab. He's on the 60 IL and the Giants, who are still in the hunt for a wild card spot,  will have to decide on keeping him or dropping someone from their 40. They could possibly trade him, but the receiving team would also need to DFA someone and also presumably send something back to San Francisco.

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bpoz - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#379206) #
The game sure has changed. I remember when a pitcher with a "live arm" always had value. He would go from 1 team to another because of that "live arm"
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Mike Green - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#379207) #
The Blue Jays appear to have broken in their 1-2-3-4 hitters over the next 5 years (including this one) in the same season.  I don't think that happens too often. 
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Spifficus - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#379208) #
They can't trade him (Bergen) - new deadline rules. So he either needs to return to the roster, find another sore spot, or go through waivers and/or be offered back.

One thing I found a bit weird about the Sanchez article was the absence of the word 'finger' or 'blister'. I don't know what influence that may have made on his pitch selection this year, but we know it did have an effect last year. I'm not sure a probable narrative can be created without exploring that.
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Paul D - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#379209) #
I thought you could still make trades, but the players traded aren't eligible for the post season. Or is it just blanket no trades?
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hypobole - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#379210) #
Here's MLBTR's rundown on August trades

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/08/so-what-can-teams-do-in-august.html
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aarne13 - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#379211) #
No trades allowed for MLB players until the end of the World Series. Players on Milb contracts can be traded though. Players can also be claimed on waivers too (team takes on contract).
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scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#379212) #
I think you can trade players that are not on the 40 rosters.
You can still pick players on waivers, but I'm not sure if waivers are still revocable. I would guess not.
I don't think you can trade anyone on an MLB roster and if you pick someone on waivers in September, they are not playoffs eligible.

If someone clears waivers and elect free agency, they can be signed, but will not be playoffs eligible after Aug 31.



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Mike Green - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#379213) #
Meanderings in BBRef.  Some ballplayers from the period when I started loving baseball and just before died in the last month- Pumpsie Green, Ernie Broglio, Don Mossi and, of course, Jim Bouton.  I missed the passings of Broglio and Mossi when on holiday.

Pumpsie Green was the first black player on the Red Sox (the last team to integrate), and he never had more 313 PAs in a season.  His best year was his age 27 season in 1961- it seems he was quite a bit better than the Sox' starting second baseman, Chuck Schilling, but Schilling was 23 and better with the glove though he could not hit.   

Yaz was a 21 year old rookie in 1961- he ended up with an OPS+ of 91 in 643 PAs.  Just a reminder that it sometimes takes time.


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hypobole - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#379214) #
This is what I gather using a few examples from Buffalo.

Rowdy/Urena can't be traded, because they're on the 40 man.
Pompey/Brito can't be traded, because they were outrighted off the 40 man.
Espinal can be traded - never been on the 40 man.
Burns can be traded because he was a minor league FA signing and hasn't been on the 40 man this year.


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hypobole - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#379215) #
Jays will have extended netting in time for the start of next season.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27333220/jays-finalize-plans-extended-safety-netting
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hypobole - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#379216) #
Our co-closer Derek Law on a run of 8 straight scoreless appearances
9 IP, 2 H, 5 BB, 8 K.

Has brought him up all the way up to -0.2 WAR for the season.
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DH - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#379218) #
Count me amongst those who called for Law’s banishment awhile back. Apparently the FO saw something that might be real!
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pubster - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#379219) #
Despite how bad it has seemed, the Jays have gotten league average pitching this season.

Considering that they play in the AL East, you could argue that their pitching has been better than league average.

In their last 8 games (I know I'm cherry picking) the Jays have only allowed 22 runs - and fewer earned runs.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#379222) #
Law’s banishment

Repeal perhaps?  I understand the sentiment.  Walk rates over 5 always grab my attention and not in a good way.    I know Randy Johnson started out that way, but for every rule, there is an exception.  And I have seen the Law and it is no Johnson.


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bpoz - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#379223) #
Thanks for the positive comment pubster. I did not realize that.

Currently our SPs older and young are gaining experience. Panonne interests me. His mediocre FB is causing me to down play his potential for 6 IP/games but I think he could be a quite good in 3-4 IP/gm. There are 2 more Thornton and Waguespack. 6 IP/gm. Again I am downgrading them because of pedigree.
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scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#379225) #
Me too, although I noted at the time that Law had some of the best numbers amoungst Bisons pitchers.
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hypobole - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#379226) #
Surprised by Montoyo letting Law drink coffee when Giles is unavailable, until I looked at the rest of the bullpen.
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scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#379227) #
So, if John Axford would return and be lights out in Buffalo, he could be traded in the last week of August?
No gonna happen, but interesting scenario.

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scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#379228) #
You mean the still alive Carl Yastrzemski?
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scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#379230) #
Giles
Law (setup guy because of experience)
Shafer
Mayza (the high leverage guys)
Gaviglio (the long relief guy)
Buddy Boshers
Jason Adam
Brock Stewart ( the "who are those guys?")


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Magpie - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#379231) #
Count me amongst those who called for Law’s banishment awhile back.

Pretty sure I was calling out much louder than you!

Is this a dish of crow I see before me...
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PeterG - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#379234) #
I agree that Law has looked very good of late. I don't think I ever called for his banishment on here but did think he was likely on the way out. He will be retained if his present performance is sustainable. Law, like many other pitchers such as Waguespack, Thornton, Pannone, Giles, were obtained by a FO that apparently does not know how to trade...lol.
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scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#379236) #
By comparison, since traded, Phelps has faced 8 batters striking out 2, walking 1 and  giving up 3 hits including a homerun.

Hudson has faced 6 batters. He struck out 3 but none has reached base.

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Mike Green - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#379238) #
The lineup today begins: Bichette, Biggio, Gurriel Jr., Guerrero Jr., Galvis, Grichuk.  10 runs and a W!
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Mike Green - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#379239) #
Ross Atkins describes Derek Fisher as having "elite plate discipline".  I guess his OSwing of 25% is very good. 

Cavan Biggio's OSwing of 14-15% (depending on the metric) is awesome, especially when combined with a 7.3% Swinging Strike Rate. He's hitting the ball pretty well and not getting as much for it as he deserves (21% LD rate and only 1 pop-up so far). 
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Nigel - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#379241) #
Well, when your MLB K% is over 35% that is pretty elite. I'm wondering if they thought that they were trading for a different Derek Fisher?

On a different note, I'm back to wondering exactly what they have (offensively) in Gurriel. He's slumping again since the ASG. The range of outcomes for him with the bat still seem incredibly broad. On the plus side, he seems to have found a nice defensive home.
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scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#379242) #
Adjustments and counter adjustments.
As long as Gurriel is not chasing, it should be fine.

Fisher reached AAA at 22 and hasn't had that much time at the majors yet.
This year he was striking out less than 25% of the time and walking 15% of the time.
I would take that.

I'm under the impression that the Jays tried to get a top 100 outfielder prospect along with a high ceiling pitcher for Stroman and when nobody moved they pivoted to taking the Mets' offer out of left field. That's probably when they circled back to Derek Fisher.

McKinney has a low ceiling defensively and Alford hasn't done much at AAA before running out of options.
They didn't like the ceiling on Smith . Pompey hasn't been able to stay healthy.
Davis has been worse than Brito in his short tryout.


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Magpie - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#379243) #
Davis has been worse than Brito in his short tryout.

Pretty sure no one thinks less of Davis than me, but I couldn't go there. No one has ever been worse than Brito.
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92-93 - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#379244) #
Biggio gets caught taking a nap on defense so naturally Buck and Tabby spend the rest of the inning waxing poetic about Kiermaeir's hustle and the umpire being in a good position to make a call on a routine groundball.
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#379246) #
We'll see your lousy 2b defense and raise you another infielder.
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SK in NJ - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#379247) #
Fisher has struck out a ton in his brief big league career, but his minor league walk rates are very good, and his minor league K% is high but reasonable. I don't think he'll ever be a low K hitter, but I don't see why he can't have a BB% around 10-12% if all goes well. If his power continues to develop and his base running remains a plus, then that's a pretty decent player. Maybe Randal Grichuk with a higher walk rate.

I am still not a fan of that trade, but I could some upside in Fisher. Whether he reaches it is another story.
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#379248) #
Maybe stop throwing that slider? Or at least stop hanging it.
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#379249) #
They never listen to me.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#379250) #
It is the Blue Jays' turn to win a 10-9 game against Tampa.
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Nigel - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#379251) #
It will be interesting to see how long they stay with Thornton as a starter. I presume for the rest of the year because there really aren’t any other good options. But he seems to be making a pretty good case that one good pitch is probably better suited to being a reliever. Both he and Pannone look like useful pitchers if kept to 2-3 innings.
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pubster - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#379252) #
Drury's K% and OPS by month:

March - 35%, .647ops
April - 35%, .716ops
May - 23%, .596ops
June - 28% .416ops
July - 19%, .838ops
August - 17%, .878ops


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Gerry - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#379253) #
Vladdy's not a third baseman and he might be a first baseman either. I don't think he is nimble enough. That play at third in extras tonight was an example. It was a bad throw by Drury but Vlad got nowhere near it with his glove, he was lucky to block it with his other hand.
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dan gordon - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#379254) #
Saw an article today ranking the 30 mlb stadiums from a fan perspective (appearance, sightlines, food, cost, etc.). Rogers Centre was 28th, ahead of only Tampa and Oakland.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#379256) #
Can the Blue Jays get into the top ten with a stadium reno, or would this require a new stadium altogether?

One good thing about Rogers Centre is its downtown location. The stadium experience feels stale and somewhat dull, though.
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dan gordon - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#379257) #
Was surprised when I heard on the broadcast today that Bichette had set an all time major league record. He's the first player in major league history to have 10 extra base hits in his 1st 9 big league games. Also the 1st Blue Jay to have hits in his 1st 9 big league games.
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dan gordon - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 12:40 AM EDT (#379258) #
A few of us, myself included, thought that the Blue Jays had made a mistake in taking J.B. Woodman in the 2nd round of the draft in 2016 instead of Bryan Reynolds, another OF who was taken by the Giants 2 picks later. Reynolds seemed to have better numbers and looked to me like a better prospect. We all know what happened to Woodman, and if you haven't noticed, Reynolds, since traded to the Pirates, is having a remarkable 1st season the big leagues. His slash line entering today was .337/.409/.523/.932 and he hit another HR tonight. He has a shot at ending with the highest batting average in the NL. In 89 games, he has produced 3.5 WAR prior to today.
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pooks137 - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 03:43 AM EDT (#379260) #

Can the Blue Jays get into the top ten with a stadium reno, or would this require a new stadium altogether?

I'm certainly no expert, but the only stadiums I'd consider rated below Skydome would be Tampa and Oakland. Both clubs also have fledgling attempts to build new stadiums.

It's hard to imagine Toronto could leapfrog 20 other newer/retro ballparks no matter how extensive the renovations

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pooks137 - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 03:49 AM EDT (#379262) #

Saw an article today ranking the 30 mlb stadiums from a fan perspective (appearance, sightlines, food, cost, etc.). Rogers Centre was 28th, ahead of only Tampa and Oakland.

Coke to dan gordon. Serves me right reading the comments last to first.

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ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#379263) #
I'm enjoying the Jay's improved play lately with Bichette being a real shot in the arm, but I see a top 5 pick in the amateur draft slipping away. Seattle, Pittsburgh and Chicago White Sox are all within range now in the backwards race. Still, a top 10 pick should yield a good player.
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scottt - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#379264) #
Thorton is known for his curve but his pitch selection so far this year has  been: (according to pitch FX)
45% 4-seam fastball
19% slider
14% cutter
11% curve
8% changeup
2% 2-seam fastball

He's just catching too much of the plate, especially when he tires up. He's at 105 innings. Last year he threw 124. It seems he'll end up around 140.

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Glevin - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#379265) #
"I'm enjoying the Jay's improved play lately with Bichette being a real shot in the arm, but I see a top 5 pick in the amateur draft slipping away. Seattle, Pittsburgh and Chicago White Sox are all within range now in the backwards race. Still, a top 10 pick should yield a good player."

FG has them at 21-25 ROY which seems about right to me. Pitching is still very bad. Looks like about 90% chance they'll be in the 4-7 pick range which should be an excellent prospect.
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bpoz - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#379267) #
Dan Gordon that is a very good point about Bryan Reynolds. I wish we had taken B Reynolds.

I don't want to defend the FO and you did not criticize them.

We also took G Conine in 2018. I am trying to figure out the drafting philosophy.

Both Woodman and Conine were 2nd round picks. Their biggest weakness is Ks. Conine has great power and a strong arm and is a RF because his speed is below par. Woodman has power, speed a great arm and plays CF. So both have some V good tools but a massive weakness.

I hope that they can fix Conine.
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scottt - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#379268) #
There is always a challenge with college hitters in finding who can hit with wooden bats.
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bpoz - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#379269) #
Thanks scottt.

I respectfully ask. How does this difference affect Ks? Metal bat = more power?
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Gerry - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#379270) #
A Metal bat has a bigger sweet spot so you can miss and still get good velocity. There is also a general velocity difference although some leagues have been mandating less powerful aluminum bats, not sure where US colleges are at. Wooden bats need a hitter to be more accurate at hitting the sweet spot.
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scottt - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#379272) #
First of all, there's  usually no dedicated hitting coaches in college, nothing compared to pitching.
In college, they value contact skills.
When team draft, they  try to look for guys--like Bo--who can generate bat speed.
Bo, of course, scared most of the scouts.
A big part of the equation is, can this guy reach the majors with his current swing or will he have to relearn how to hit.
If it's the latter, you can understand that teams will select athletic players with tools.

Also, guy who really stand out are not trying to hide. Top draft picks make between 2 and 5 million.
The first thing Manoah did was pay all of his monoparental mother's bills.


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bpoz - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#379273) #
Thanks Gerry. Very nice start to this conversation.

The large vs the small sweet spot!!! And how it affects the Ks if off speed and breaking pitches are used. Also location. Ok, too complicated.
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scottt - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#379275) #
Today Wilmer Font will open for the Jays as planned.
They burned Gaviglio yesterday, so they'll give the ball to Brock Stewart as the feature pitcher.
He's 27 and has not been good this year.
His line at AAA Dodgers is 16 starts, 76 IP, 97 Hits, 40 walks for a WHIP of 1.8.  He's also got 67 Ks, but 40 homers.

Does not look that impressive. Let's dig deeper.

He went to Normal High School in Normal, Illinois.
He was a third baseman in college.
In  2016 he was the Dodgers minor league pitcher of the year with an ERA of 1.79 across 3 levels.
He's battled shoulder issues in  2017.
He could be one of those guys who are struggling with the juiced ball, since his ERA in AAA last year was 2.99 and it's up to 7.34 this year.

His fastball lack deception but he throws mostly a sinker.
He has a change and a tight slider.

I expect the Rays to load up on left bats.





[ Reply to This ]
AWeb - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#379276) #
His line at AAA Dodgers is 16 starts, 76 IP, 97 Hits, 40 walks for a WHIP of 1.8. He's also got 67 Ks, but 40 homers.

It's only 19 homers, which is still terrible in 76 innings, but not spit-take "how the hell is that possible?" terrible. 67 Ks in 76 innings doesn't sound awful, but with that many batters faced, his K/PA is pretty bad. So yeah, bring your glove to the bleachers tonight in Tampa.

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Vulg - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#379277) #
Fantastic article on Sportsnet by Shi Davidi.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/time-now-blue-jays-fans-change-conversation/

Not what I thought it was going to be. Refreshing.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#379278) #
Jays claim Godley. Good guy to take chance on. Awful this year but 6 war combined previous two seasons. Maybe can get something from him.
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uglyone - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#379279) #
Not perfect but pretty damn good, Shi!

Thanks for sharing, Vulg.
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Jevant - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#379280) #
Godley's velocity appears to be way down this year. Wondering if he's toughing it through an injury. In theory, if you look at 2017-2018 there's a serviceable arm attached there. Hopefully the Jays can figure out what's up.
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Magpie - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#379281) #
It's only 19 homers, which is still terrible in 76 innings

I'm wondering what happened to him in AAA this year. Stewart's always been able to keep the ball in the park, PCL or not. This is the fourth season he's spent time in Oklahoma City. Coming into this season, he'd allowed 13 HRs in 164.1 IP, which is really good. But this year, it's the scary numbers seen above. Have they been trying to teach him a new pitch? And it's not working?
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hypobole - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#379282) #
Echo uo's thoughts on the Davidi piece Vulg. Probably the most pragmatic article I've seen on the Jays in quite some time.
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uglyone - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#379283) #
just want to say though that that bit at the end of the article about "fans wanting dinggerzzz!" and not caring about things like walks is unnecessary and has nothing to do with the current jays' situation.

I mean, the FO has actually been collecting a bunch of homerun hitters who don't get on base much, so it actually makes no sense at all.
[ Reply to This ]
James W - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#379284) #
I'm wondering what happened to him in AAA this year.

Same thing as every other pitcher in AAA - the change in the baseball happened.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#379285) #
but the same thing didn't happen to every other pitcher in AAA.
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Chuck - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#379287) #
Shi Davidi pisses into the tent. Beautiful. Nice cogent argument. Let's see if it resonates inside Rogers' walls.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#379288) #
Looking forward to Vlad's power improving with more ML experience. I think by the time he is 25 years old he will be redecorating the Sky Dome with long HR plaques.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#379289) #
Good piece. This front office does seem unnecessarily defensive. They're not really under siege. They actually have time. They should relax a little.

I just got to wondering about Montoyo's lineups. Aside from his two catchers, he's got 10 players for 8 lineup spots and he doesn't seem to regard anyone as a bench player. So he's been working out some kind of rotation. In the six games since Gurriel started feeling better and McKinney went down:

Gurriel and Bichette have started every day;
Guerrero, Galvis, Grichuk and Smoak have started 5 games, with 1 game on the bench;
Biggio, Fisher, Hernandez, Drury have started 4 games with 2 games on the bench.

OK, predictions! Which 2 guys are on the bench tomorrow?
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#379290) #
Doesn't look like Gurriel and Bichette need a day off.
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James W - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#379294) #
I'm sure you can probably find one pitcher who didn't get worse to refute it, but on a whole, hitting has gone up massively in AAA.

International League - last season, run scoring ranged from 485 to 653, over 137-140 games. This season, run scoring ranges from 518 to 660, over 112-114 games. (Sorry, but not sorry, that I didn't calculate runs per game.)

Pacific Coast League - last year, 526 to 824 over the full season (138 to 140 games). This year, 544 to 815 runs, in only 112 to 114 games.

Run scoring is pretty much the same in only 80% of the games, and I'm pretty confident attributing most of it to the change in the baseball. We lived through Aaron Sanchez's struggles with the baseball change, so while it's possible that something else went horribly wrong for Brock Stewart this year, the easy answer staring us (well, me anyway) in the face is the change in the baseball.
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Magpie - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#379295) #
On the Twitter, WIlner points out that Gurriel hit his 30th HR in his 143rd game. McGriff had the old team record, hitting his 30th in his 147th game.
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Magpie - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#379296) #
It's been a while since I've seen a manager run out of the dugout to change pitchers. There have been opportunities.
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Magpie - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#379297) #
Paulino DFAd to clear a spot for Godley. Figuring no one's going to put ina a waiver claim on an injured guy.
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pubster - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#379299) #
"In their last 8 games (I know I'm cherry picking) the Jays have only allowed 22 runs - and fewer earned runs."

In their last 10 games the Jays have only allowed 32 runs - and fewer earned!

Thats twice through the rotation AVERAGING ace performance
[ Reply to This ]
pooks137 - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#379300) #

Paulino DFAd to clear a spot for Godley. Figuring no one's going to put ina a waiver claim on an injured guy.

I thought the same thing, but MLBTR says the only option the Jays have is to release him, since you can't trade or outright guys on the minor league DL, which makes sense

You'd think it must be a disciplinary issue at this point since there's so much other dreck on the 40-man. He also hasn't pitched since June 16th.

[ Reply to This ]
grjas - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#379301) #
I’d seen Shi’s Article earlier and had the same reaction. Critical but also balanced as it also talked about the many good things they’ve done. Still like to see a GM that knows how to trade.

Glad to see Fisher hit an HR. Much as I disliked the trade, the guy has had a frustrating start to his mlb career and now has a bullseye on his back and I am sure he knows it. clearly an underdog and so I’ll be cheering for him.
[ Reply to This ]
grjas - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#379302) #
I’d seen Shi’s Article earlier and had the same reaction. Critical but also balanced as it also talked about the many good things they’ve done. Still like to see a GM that knows how to trade.

Glad to see Fisher hit an HR. Much as I disliked the trade, the guy has had a frustrating start to his mlb career and now has a bullseye on his back and I am sure he knows it. clearly an underdog and so I’ll be cheering for him.
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scottt - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#379303) #
Not a fan of the Davidi article.

2015 ended a 21 year drought only because AA's tenure had been a disaster.
We got Guerrero (Would Rogers have let him be traded?), Jansen (hasn't hit enough so far) and Borucki (on his way to Dr Andrews). Yay.

The present approach might be to hoard fringe pitching prospects, but AA left very little behind.
Except for back loaded contracts on aging players.
It's not Shapiro who fixes the budget. The exchange rate dropped dramatically after 2015, by about 30%.
AA and Beeston emptied the farm and overspent on their way out.

One of the things that makes Shapiro unlikable is that he's not going to say anything negative about ownership, coaching, players or even the media.

How was 2016 a tepid toe in the water year when they did make the playoffs that year and all the failures were due to the 2015 hitters not performing? Not a single one of the all-right-handed hitters could deal with outside breaking balls during the Cleveland series.

Stroman did say one thing in New York that completely explains the lack of extension.
He said "my best years are ahead of me".
It's going to be very interesting to see what kind of contact he signs if he's not lucky enough to be traded during his QO year.

Bichette is setting MLB records, but let's talk about AA and Bautista.

[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#379304) #
Bichette has a rookie hitting streak going. He's just passed Ted Williams.
You sit him after he goes 0-for.

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scottt - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#379305) #
I don't about a bullseye, but he sports a shiner.

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Spifficus - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#379306) #
Ok, I think my sarcasm meter might officially be broke. Does anyone know a good sarcasm meter repair person, or know of a good replacement for the right price?

I mean, while AA didn't poop out roses, calling him a disaster has to be sarcasm, right?
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#379307) #
I think there's 3 possible outcomes.

He can be claimed on release waivers. The team claiming him would have to put him on their 40 since he can't be DFAed.

He can resign a minor league contract with the Jays.

He can become a free agent.

I think the Jays can offer him a decent minor salary and he probably knows that the Jays offers as many opportunities as any other team. He did post decent numbers in Buffalo in his 7 starts.
He's on his last minor league option.

[ Reply to This ]
dan gordon - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#379308) #
Godley is a really nice acquisition. No idea what has happened to him this year, but he had a great season for Arizona in 2017, and 2018 wasn't bad when you factor in that he had the worst strand rate in the league. Not a free agent until 2023, he could be a rotation member for a few years if he can rediscover his form. Disappointing that they dropped Paulino - as mentioned above, there are lots of others who have no real value to the team's rebuild.

Another team record for Bichette - 8 straight games with a double.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#379309) #
Could be the ball or not that affected Stewart.
It doesn't really change anything since the MLB ball is no better.

Well, he didn't throw as hard as I expected, but he had a decent breaking ball.
He couldn't get his change over to lefties, so I think he got pretty lucky overall.

Another series win. They almost swept the playoff bound Rays.
Here comes the Yankees, let's go get 'em.

Those post sell-off wins are bittersweet. At least the losses don't sting as much.
So, we're done to Zeuch and Murphy? How are these guys trending?

[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#379310) #
This is a funny year, kind of reminds me of 1998. Big sell off mid-season then the team took off and had the most wins of any Jays team between 1993 and 2015. 54-56 on July 31st, 34-18 after. On the 31st they traded away Juan Guzman, Tony Phillips, and Ed Sprague after trading Mike Stanley the day before. Got pretty much garbage for them, but it cleared space to allow playing time for others and the team went nuts. On August 6th they dumped Randy Myers on San Diego in a great salary dump (hey even blind squirrels find the odd acorn).

So far this year 43-67 pre August 1st, 4-3 since. Hey, I'll take it.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 07 2019 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#379311) #
Godley is an interesting pickup. He had a 3.4 WAR/3.41 FIP in 155 innings in 2017, and a 2.5 WAR/3.82 FIP in 178.1 innings last season. He has fallen off a cliff this year, strike out rates are way down, but comes with three years of control after this one. If he can return to something similar to 2017-18, that's a good rotation option.

Disappointed about Paulino. While he was performing well as a SP in AAA, I think we are at a point where it's clear his arm cannot handle that workload. Even as a RP, I hope the Jays can find a way to keep him in the organization.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 01:16 AM EDT (#379313) #
So far this year 43-67 pre August 1st, 4-3 since.

The team was a little better than the W-L record anyway. They're now 11-19 in one run games, and a team of this quality should probably be something like 14-16. As we've been over many a time, one-run games normally lift the bad teams towards .500 and drag the good teams down.
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jerjapan - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 05:40 AM EDT (#379315) #
Love that Davidi piece ... I think pretty much every topic in it, for or against the FO, has been discussed here at length, but the one point I definitely had not clocked prior was this one. Thoughts?

• Why, in its fourth year, is the expensive and arguably excessively large High Performance Department still drawing quiet complaints throughout the organization for the way it functions? Is it being given too much leeway in deciding when players should be resting, and what exercises they should be doing? Why are so many players in the organization suffering lat/oblique injuries? Has it actually helped keep players on the field?
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scottt - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 07:47 AM EDT (#379317) #
AA's attempt at contending was the 2013 team that finished last. How was this not a disaster?
How do you describe the 2014 team? It was not a competitive team, it was just wasting EE and Baustista's prime years.
The 2015 team was a scorched earth final attempt that did well because the rest of the division was down.
Without the Dickey deal, that team might have had a chance.
They almost lost to Texas and then were completely outplayed by Kansas City.
The problem with the 2016-17-18 teams what the inherited stars  did not perform to expectation.
On the surface, the Yankees are having a similar year, but all their players are putting up good numbers, just not staying on the field. So, all the Jays needed to contend was to sign a 3 time gold glove who had just won a batting title.
Was there one available? It's hard to believe that LeMahieu was only given a 2/24M contract.


[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#379318) #
So, it took him 3 years of actually trying to put a playoff team that had a short 2-3 year shelflife - the first playoff appearances in over 20 years for the team. That's a hell of a lot better than the previous two GMs, and better than the average GM.

You can dislike the shortness of the window, but it seems pretty counter-intuitive since he was able to actually create that window, which is the whole point.
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ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#379319) #
Exactly, Spifficus. I don't give a rat's behind about AA leaving behind an old team and a perceived barren farm system. After watching so many years of mediocre to poor baseball we finally had meaningful playoff games and excitement around the team.

Ironically, while I can see the current team with its young stars being a contender in coming years, I think management will have to make an AA swing-for-the-fences trade to put them over the top.
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#379321) #
Personally, Island Boy, I probably would have preferred something with an eye towards sustainability in an effort to stave off or minimize a rebuild. Having said that, the playoff runs were awesome, and we got a signature moment out of it in The Bat Flip and an inning that will go down in legend. The price was high, but so was the reward. If it were me, I'd do it different, but given a binary choice, I'd push all the chips in, too.

When the time comes, though, you're right - there will have to be some swings for the fences (either trades or FA deals). It's just a matter of waiting til the right count and getting the right pitch.
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Marc Hulet - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#379323) #
I forget which GM said it recently but it went something like: "Our goal isn't to finish first in Baseball America's rankings of prospects... it's to win MLB games and make the playoffs."

I love prospects as much or more than anyone but you need a balance and this front office is going too far one way, at least with the public statements. I really liked Shi's article yesterday. Atkins and Shapiro likely need the help of a strong media relations/public relations assistant to help them with their public personas and interviews... but not just a spin doctor... someone who also really knows baseball and can teach them some balance.

I know some people were encouraged by Fisher's home run yesterday and the front office was probably high-fiving but the 3 Ks are worrisome. The club already has Teoscar and others providing pop while K-ing too much.
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Spifficus - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#379324) #
Right. This year's a great example of the importance of that quote - the prospect rankings are going to drop off significantly this year, but for all the right reasons - the three top prospects should all be graduated off by the offseason. Systems are there to provide major league talent, by hook or by crook.

I've generally kept away from most of the media done by Shapiro or Atkins, so that may explain why I don't experience any frothing rage at the mere thought of them. Given they're in the midst of a rebuild, though, I'd expect them to emphasize the prospects angle. The quotes of control were weird, though. I think it was the Davidi article that put it best - Control is only good if it's something worth controlling. Given the visceral reactions they seem to be generating, I'd say you're probably right - that they need to find someone who knows what to sell at the moment and how to sell it.
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ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#379325) #
Yes. I agree on the sustainability part, too, Spifficus but without the big trades the Jays might have been merely a pretty good team that achieved nothing.

That being said, I prefer having a strong farm system that will keep a successful big league team rolling for years. As a fun aside, I wonder if you add up the hits by rookie Jays position players at the end of the 2019 season, how many previous year's totals would you need to equal that mark ? I would put the over/under at 10.
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Mike Green - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#379327) #
When was the last time the Blue Jays had a player with Bo Bichette's skill set?  I can't think of one.  He brings a much-needed shot of adrenaline to the club.

I wonder what the attendance will be like tonight. It's the Yankees, so there will be a bunch of people visiting from New York, but it wouldn't surprise me if there were a large walk up crowd.
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pubster - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#379328) #
The team on the field is exciting.

So I don't really understand all the hate against Shapiro and Atkins.

Who cares if they say weird things in interviews, so long as the on field product is going in the right direction?
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Parker - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#379329) #
Yeah. I'm watching a lot more games this year than last.

It's partially a "with zero expectations, you're never disappointed" thing, but it's also a "these guys seem like they can hold their own already, and there's reason to believe they're only going to get better" thing.

Based on Cleveland's success, I'm certainly willing to give Shapiro and Atkins the benefit of the doubt for at least a couple more years.
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PeterG - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#379330) #
Same here.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#379331) #
While I haven't agreed with everything the FO has done, they have clearly put the team in a favorable position now and going forward. The farm system is in good shape despite a bunch of upper minors promotions (including two top 10 prospects in baseball), and the big league team is young with a ton of payroll flexibility. Atkins has to prove he is the guy who can put the finishing touches on a developing young core, but that won't happen overnight, so we will just have to wait and see.
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85bluejay - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#379333) #
Brandon Drury has been playing better recently and I'd like to see him get regular playing time this season - maybe he's over his last 2 seasons of injuries/maladies and he can become the regular 3b (Vlad isn't) over the next few years as he 3 more years of control , maybe he does well enough to be a trade asset, shows he can be a productive versatile backup or he isn't part of the team going forward.

Also hope Wilmer Font gets a good run as a starter
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Mike Green - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#379334) #
Per Fangraphs, the starting pitcher on the Blue Jay roster with the best projected ERA for the remainder of the season is Zack Godley.

The Jays could easily have had a sweep at the Trop.  I felt that Montoyo's decision to leave in Thornton after the 2nd two-run homer in the 5th inning was a poor one, and based on the idea that the carrot of a win is enough to overcome pitcher tiredness.  I don't buy it.  It's really time to retire the notion of a "pitcher win" and I can't think of a better club to do it than the 2019 Blue Jays, 2nd edition, with a bunch of pitchers who can throw 3-4 innings and no more, and a closer who cannot pitch on consecutive days.  First, they raised minor league salaries. Second, they extended the netting.  Third, they rejected "pitcher wins" and "pitcher saves" as meaningful.  Come on, guys, you can do this. 
[ Reply to This ]
85bluejay - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#379336) #
Is it feasible to have a rotation of 8 pitchers doing a piggyback - starter goes 4 innings/60 pitches, next pitcher does same - it's a 4 day rotation, so 3 days rest - have 3 relievers to pitch when needed.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#379337) #
The Blue Jays have 4 days off between August 15 and August 31, and then the rosters expand. The tandem would be mostly working on 4 days rest, and there would be the odd start on 3 days.   They are using 12 pitchers.  It could be done.

The first two pitchers go twice through the order maximum.  If they've really got it, they might go 5 and conceivably you get a complete game from the two of them. 
[ Reply to This ]
pubster - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#379339) #
"Is it feasible to have a rotation of 8 pitchers doing a piggyback - starter goes 4 innings/60 pitches, next pitcher does same - it's a 4 day rotation, so 3 days rest - have 3 relievers to pitch when needed."

Well you need 1400-1500 ips for the entire season. If you could get 10 guys to throw 120 ips each (3ip every 4 games) you'd be in great shape.
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85bluejay - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#379340) #
I'm thinking of this as a long-term plan,not just this year and now is the time to try as only Matt Shoemaker (next year) has the seniority to object.
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bpoz - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#379341) #
Tellez has burned his 2nd option I think. I am unhappy about that. How long does he have to stay down to get an extra year of control? Sorry to bring up years of control. It is a factor IMO.
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Mike Green - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#379342) #
In the long-term, if you can get 8 pitchers to throw 7 innings per game, that's 1134 innings.  You need another 300 or so from your 4 relievers and September callups.  Seems workable. 

The lively question is whether pitchers will be able to throw 50-60 pitches on 3 days rest regularly.  I think they can.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#379344) #
The lively question is whether pitchers will be able to throw 50-60 pitches on 3 days rest regularly.

I'm sure some can. And I'm sure some can't.

As always, the only way to find out if she's a witch is to throw her in the water and see whether she drowns.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#379346) #
No better time than now to test the waters, but I'd like to find a better metaphor than drowning witches. 
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#379347) #
I always think one of the problems with that idea is this assumption that you're always going to get the four decent innings. You're not. Sometimes you're going to have to go into the bullpen early, then you're going to be scrambling for the next week, you have to keep going to the bullpen and it becomes a vicious circle of trouble. The only way you can even survive is by shuttling fresh arms up from the farm. Because you've left yourself very little margin to work around the situation.

I mean, you can't always get one quality inning from the people in your bullpen.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#379348) #
You definitely need 9 pitchers who can go 3 innings or more in that format.  One is your blowout/extra inning pitcher- is Chad Jenkins still pitching?

That leaves 3 pitchers to cover the last 0-2 innings.  One gets the low to medium leverage work, one gets the medium to high (the Giles job) and the other fills in as required. 
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#379350) #
If you look at the top farm systems:

Padres, seemingly unable to transition to competitive and they've commit 100M to Hosmer and 68M to Wil  Myers, both playing at replacement level.

Rays, no revenues, no attendance, only willing to sign team friendly contract with a view to trade players while they're at top value. It's kinda ironic that they're loaded with pitching and yet have no starting rotation.

Astros, not anymore, after 3 years of contention, they've traded away a huge chunk to acquire Greinke in an attempt to establish a dynasty.

Marlins, no revenues, in the early stages of a long tank.

White Sox, been tanking for a while now.

Tigers, been tanking for so long, their young players are starting to walk

Dodgers, are going to win 7 consecutive division titles and they've managed to stockpiles layers upon layers of prospects.

I think the Jays are emulating the right team. It's hard to judge because the next 2 years will tell the story, but it looks pretty good. As long as the Dodgers have a better farm system than the Jays, I can't see Toronto as neglecting the major team in favor of the farm.  I'd rather wait and trade guys who are blocked at AAA or the guys who are blocking someone.

[ Reply to This ]
85bluejay - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#379351) #
Except it's a rare game where the jays don't use 4 plus pitchers - the thing is to decrease the number of 1 inning or less pitchers - I think it's very doable but I don't know if Montoyo is the guy to sell it.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, August 08 2019 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#379352) #
Except it's a rare game where the jays don't use 4 plus pitchers - the thing is to decrease the number of 1 inning or less pitchers - I think it's very doable but I don't know if Montoyo is the guy to sell it.

Well, he did lead off with Jansen early on in the season.  We'll see.  Creativity is definitely an asset in the position.

But I definitely agree- decreasing the number of 1 inning or less pitchers is a must. 
[ Reply to This ]
Parker - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#379464) #
No better time than now to test the waters, but I'd like to find a better metaphor than drowning witches.

Witches don't drown, though.* ** Witches survive the attempted drowning and are then burned at the stake as per God's infinite mercy. If the broad does drown, she's not a witch, and she receives the blessing of a good Christian death.

Hmm. I lost the baseball metaphor in there somewhere.

*because they weigh the same as a duck and are therefore made of wood (couldn't resist)

**hey Dewey, is the asterisk supposed to go before or after the period?
[ Reply to This ]
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