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The ballot for the current Veteran's committee is set - Modern Era

  • Marvin Miller: the #1 reason baseball players have free agency or any rights. Owners hated him.
  • Lou Whitaker: 75.1 bWAR, 2369 hits, 244 HR. On writers ballot just once 2.9%. 5 ASG, 3 Gold Gloves, rookie of the year. dWAR over 16.
  • Dwight Evans: 67.1 bWAR, 2446 hits, 385 HR. Only on the ballot for writers 3 times, peaking at 10.4%. 3 ASG, 8 Gold Gloves
  • Tommy John: 61.5 bWAR, 288-231 3.34 ERA 111 ERA+. On writers ballot 15 years, peaking final year at 31.7%. 4 ASG. Surgery named after him (yes, he is a real person).
  • Ted Simmons: 50.3 bWAR, 2472 hits, 248 HR. On writers ballot just once 3.7%. 8 ASG, not viewed strong defensively, but has 5.2 BR dWAR (career overlapped Bench which hurt)
  • Dale Murphy: 46.5 bWAR, 2111 hits, 398 HR. On writers ballot 15 years, peaking year 2 at 23.2%. 7 ASG, 5 Gold Gloves, 2 MVP (back to back). Career pretty much done post age 31.
  • Thurman Munson: 46.1 bWAR, 1558 hits, 113 HR. On writers ballot 15 years, peaking year 1 at 15.5%. 7 ASG, 3 Gold Gloves, 1 MVP, died after his age 32 season.
  • Don Mattingly: 42.4 bWAR, 2153 Hits, 222 HR. On writers ballot 15 years, peaking year 1 at 28.2%. 6 ASG, 9 Gold Gloves, 1 MVP, final games were his only ones in the post-season.
  • Dave Parker: 40.1 bWAR, 2712 hits, 339 HR. On writers ballot 15 years, peaking year 2 at 24.5%. 7 ASG, 3 Gold Gloves, 1 MVP. Finished as a Blue Jay.
  • Steve Garvey: 38.1 bWAR, 2599 hits, 272 HR. On the writers ballot 15 years, peaking year 1 at 41.6%. 10 ASG, 4 Gold Gloves, 1 MVP, played over 1000 straight games and pre-Rikpen was thought to have the best shot at catching Gehrig
So, who does each of you support going in and why?

To me it is insane that Miller, Whitaker, and Evans aren't there already. John also should've been there long ago. Sadly I fear Mattingly or Munson will sneak in thanks to being Yankees depending on who is on the panel. After all, the panel put in Harold Baines last year so who knows?
Hall of Fame Modern Era Ballot | 9 comments | Create New Account
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85bluejay - Tuesday, November 05 2019 @ 06:56 AM EST (#382930) #
Marvin Miller has had the greatest impact on the modern game but the owners will never let him in - it's one reason I don't respect the baseball hall of fame anymore.
AWeb - Tuesday, November 05 2019 @ 07:06 AM EST (#382931) #
It's dumb that Miller is on a ballot with players - with all the subcommittees that they broke the veterans committee into, why wouldn't they have one for "non-playing contributors"? They ran into this a few years ago when managers (Torre, Cox, LaRussa) were put into the hall instead of players.

I'd put in the top 4 players listed pretty happily, and Munson is a maybe (catchers are tough). Whitaker is a no-brainer, unless you really need a sustained MVP-level peak from your candidates. Dwight Evans is the same type of player, just at a different position. John is actually a similar type of pitcher, I suppose, with an even lower peak and even longer career.

As mentioned in the intro, after electing Harold Baines last year, who knows what the HoF electors are going to do. No one on the list would be a notably worse pick than Baines.
Gerry - Tuesday, November 05 2019 @ 08:49 AM EST (#382933) #
There was a story in the Toronto Star yesterday about immigrant support for the Peoples Party in the last election. One of the reasons given was that people like to pull up the ladder after they get in.

The same seems to be true for the hall of fame and the votes of hall of famers to see who should join them through this modern era ballot. Most of those in the hall believe they were better players than those on the outside and so there is a reluctance to vote them in.

That is the human factor influencing the vote.

I like to take the human factor out and look at the numbers. I am unsure where is the average cut-off line for WAR for hall of famers and I guess it varies by position. I would definitely add Lou Whitaker and then add those whose WAR exceeds the cut-off for their positions.
rpriske - Tuesday, November 05 2019 @ 09:00 AM EST (#382934) #
Miller, Murphy, Parker... then Evans. Maybe Simmons.
rpriske - Tuesday, November 05 2019 @ 09:01 AM EST (#382935) #
On second thought, let me add John on with Evans.
Gerry - Tuesday, November 05 2019 @ 09:13 AM EST (#382937) #
Jay Jaffe at Fangraphs has published a story showing how the candidates compare to the average at their position. He has Bobby Grich ahead of Lou Whitaker.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 05 2019 @ 10:05 AM EST (#382938) #
It's really tricky, Gerry.  Jay Jaffe's JAWS system uses a mixture of prime and career WAR for evaluation purposes.  Some people are interested in peak, and others in career value only.

If you just look at career WAR, the leading bWAR position players who are eligible but not in the Hall of Fame are: Barry Bonds (163) Bill Dahlen (75), Lou Whitaker (75), Larry Walker (73), Rafael Palmeiro (72), Bobby Grich (71), Scott Rolen (70) Kenny Lofton (68), Graig Nettles (68), Dwight Evans (67).  For pitchers the list is: Roger Clemens (139), Curt Schilling (81), Jim McCormick (76), Kevin Brown (68), Rick Reuschel (68).

For perspective, the 20th century pitchers between 60 and 62 WAR are (in descending order): Dennis Eckersley, Tommy John, Juan Marichal, Joe McGinnity, Andy Pettitte, Rube Waddell, Jim Bunning, Mark Buehrle, Hal Newhouser, Jack Quinn.  Most are in the Hall of Fame- the ones that aren't had a pretty flat career.   For position players, the list between 60 and 62 WAR is (in descending order): Mark McGwire, Jack Glasscock, Jake Beckley, Sal Bando, Jackie Robinson, Todd Helton, Willie Davis, Gary Sheffield, Jim Edmonds, Keith Hernandez, Harmon Killebrew, Joey Votto, Zack Wheat, Gabby Hartnett, Bobby Abreu, Yogi Berra, Mike Piazza.  Jackie is of course a special case.  Beckley and Wheat are in, but most of the modern guys are out save for the catchers (bWAR definitely underrates them). 

GabrielSyme - Tuesday, November 05 2019 @ 01:40 PM EST (#382958) #
I really think Whitaker needs to get in - in addition to his own individual merit, he was one half of the best double-play combination in history - and he was the better half.

I'm not particularly eager to pull race into the conversation, but it would really be a bad look for the HOF to admit Trammell (and Morris) but leave Whitaker outside looking in.
John Northey - Tuesday, November 05 2019 @ 06:21 PM EST (#382967) #
The HOF has fallen far behind thanks to the playing around they did. Then they waste time putting in jokes like Baines which messes it up even more.

Bobby Grich is very overdue, Graig Nettles has an excellent case for getting in too. Many others also. The HOF isn't for the best of the best, it is for the high end players who had long careers or super-high end who had short careers. The best of the best are automatics or used as tools to send a message (see Bonds & Clemens).
Hall of Fame Modern Era Ballot | 9 comments | Create New Account
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