With Urshela and Stanton in the lineup, the Yankees have more bite than they did in Toronto. The Jays need Walker to have better control of his pitches tonight because he really lived up to his name last game. I'm not confident at all with Roark and Anderson pitching the last two so I'll be very happy if the Jays manage to take 2 out of 3 in this set.

Hmm. Better update...

Teoscar Hernadez will hit against live pitching tomorrow, and if all goes well, an imminent return is expected.

Any timeline on Tellez's return?

Has Anderson been announced for the 3rd game? Everybody was expecting Ray.

Ray makes more sense to me as well (Yankee Stadium), but ESPN still lists Anderson. Wait and see, I guess.

That's bad enough to get demoted tonight, I'd say.

Man, way to go Derek. Not a big game or anything.

Not like we don't know he's a ticking time bomb every time we decide to put him in the field, of course.

Geez, that went to hell in a hurry.

There's not too many guys can make you miss Teoscar's defense.

Fisher seems to have mental issues of some kind.

At least the ball didn't hit him on the head this time. Walker seemed to have pretty good stuff, too, but the missed outs seemed to unglue him bit.

His main issue is he's not an outfielder. He just looks like one. The man's a DH.

That was so frustrating. Yep very make-able plays. I found myself yelling at the TV. Even his throws back into the infield were terrible. I know this isn’t little league, but I would bench him after that kind of performance. He clearly didn’t want to be on the field for whatever reason

Definitely seems mental with Fisher. That fly ball that bounced off his face last season seems to have caused some long-term damage. I don't think the Jays can afford to play him in the field for the rest of this season. Hopefully they keep Davis on the playoff roster as the 4th OF instead. He's a much better defensive player and base runner, and at this rate I don't think Fisher provides much utility as a DH who may or may not be a good hitter.

Fisher may have screwed the team for the next two weeks. They'll have to go very deep into the pen today, and then Roark at Yankee Stadium tomorrow which seems like a recipe for disaster. Walker could have gotten out of that 2nd inning with 0 runs scored had anyone else played RF. Now the team has to find a way to minimize the damage to the bullpen.

Fisher's issues as a defender pre-dated getting hit in the face with a ball last year. The night of the trade last year I was listening to an Astros broadcast and they essentially said exactly what Magpie said above - athletically capable, completely incapable in actual practice. There can be zero surprises here.

A DH with a career .668ops is not an mlb player.

I'd like to see how Villar looks in the OF.

Call up Austin Martin.

Not having seen the plays in question, I am conjuring up some amusing scenarios in my head, but can someone enlighten us on what exactly Fisher did or didn't do? Sounds like an epic adventure.

I’m fine with Davis in the outfield with Biggio stepping in as needed. Hopefully Hernandez can play the field soon.

Not sure we lose much offence with Davis vs Fisher anyway.

First he caught a ball than dropped it on the ground.
Then he completely missed another one.
The third one he played on a bounce and threw back.

So instead of leading 1-0, Walker found himself down down 3-1. Then he allowed 2 homeruns and that was it.

Best I can describe is when you see a little leaguer scared to catch the ball so he closes his eyes just before the ball clanks off his glove.

Frazier hit an utterly routine fly ball to deep right. Fisher camped under it. It hit him in the glove and bounced away.

Gardner hit a long line drive to right centre. Fisher got to the ball in time to make a backhanded catch, but he missed it. It looked to me like he got spooked by the wall.

Unlike Shaw, Fisher looks like he can hit Garcia's fastball.

That's exactly that. He closed his eyes and looked away just as he was catching the ball.

Kirk is flat out hilarious to see out there.

I have never seen a rounder ballplayer ever.

Wow, that's quite the performance. I am simultaneously sorry/deeply thankful to have missed it.

" I have never seen a rounder ballplayer ever."

Kirby Puckett was a round man. He had a chest like a penguin.

Kirk beats him.

Yeah, the uglyone got it right. And you know, folks - it's one thing for an outfielder to get spooked by the wall. But when they get spooked by the ball - you need to try someone else. Vlad, say. Young Captain Kirk. Some guy off the street.

Kirby Puckett was a round man.

I remember Kirby as more of an oval - you know, egg-shaped. Tony Gwynn, too. But Kirk is a bowling ball.

Jeff Blair has an idea. Pretty good one, actually:

I'd make Derek Fisher pitch in this game.

That's a great idea.

Costliest fielding debacle since "elite D" Goins muffed that routine pop up.

I wonder how Pete Walker's arm is feeling these days.

Jays clearly don’t like days off.

Chris Colabello took some incredibly funky routes to balls

As you might expect from a guy who had been a career infielder before joining the 2015 Jays. Fisher has no such excuse.

Clippers-Nuggets, Game 7? I am outta here!

The more I see Fisher the more I think the Jays should've kept Alford - at least he could run and field. Fisher showed hope very early on but I think it might be getting to cut bait and run once Hernandez is back. Davis has to be the 4th OF now instead of Fisher. Far more useful with his speed and defense. For the playoffs there is no question I'd rather have Davis, and Espinal on the roster over Fisher.

Given Walker threw under 50 pitches would you use him in Friday's double header? Either as a starter or reliever if needed? I'd think about it if I was the Jays depending on how it would affect things going forward and how drained the staff is by then. 4 relievers used today so plenty available tomorrow.

Not often you see a likely playoff bound team give up 37 runs over 2 games in a week. It is indeed a weird year, both for the Jays and the game.

The more I see Fisher the more I think the Jays should've kept Alford - at least he could run and field.

Going into tonight, Both Alford and Fisher were -3 DRS in 73 and 82 innings respectively. Neither can field. Davis is fine, even Biggio is acceptable.

Park Fisher on the bench and when Teoscar is activated, DFA Fisher.

Jays now with 36 unearned runs on the season. No other team had more than 28, so Jays were dead last even before tonight. 5 teams under 10, Tigers the best with 6.

For fielding via FanGraphs the Jays are a net -3.3 before tonight's mess.

Vlad the worst at -2.6, followed by Biggio (due to poor RF play) at -1.7, Grichuk also -1.7, and Hernandez at -1.6. Ugh. 4 of the long term pieces all negative is a bad sign.

UZR/150 has Davis as #1, Hernandez in CF #2 (! - SSS), Panik at 10.3 at 2B, Gurriel at 7.9 in LF, Espinal at 7 at SS, Biggio at 4.1 at 2B, Shaw 3.6 at 3B, Tellez 2.3 at 1B. That is it for guys over 1.0. Bo is a bit negative at SS but not terrible (-0.6). Among guys with a score Fisher has the worst at -38.4 in LF, but just -3.6 in RF (should drop badly after tonight). Villar at 2B is next worst at -37.2. Ugh. I ignored the guys who are gone (Alford was terrible, McKinney good).

Bottom line is the Jays need to keep guys in their positions and shift a lot less. Yeah, it is fun to move Biggio everywhere but he is best at 2B - very solid there so why make a good 2B into a poor RF or a meh 3B? I guess to get Panik in at 2B and avoid playing Fisher makes some sense, but that is the only case that does and in those cases lets play Davis instead.

Jays now with 36 unearned runs on the season.

I'm curious how many of those unearned runs are extra-inning ghost runners. The Jays have played 11 extra-inning games, still more than any other team (Houston - 8 appears to be second.)

But yes - defender sloppiness has been a huge problem this year.

As has been the case for a while now, the roster could use a LHH CF who could play some defense and have some OBP skills.

Try Villar out there. He's got speed and arm.

Never dawned on me but yeah, the first run to score in any extra inning is unearned.

I just watched a bit, and then skipped ahead (wasn't watching live). I can't believe they left Fisher out there. After the second drop and banging into the wall, I would have sent him to the showers, moved Biggio to right, Villar to 2nd..

Park Fisher on the bench and when Teoscar is activated, DFA Fisher.

On the one hand, you never make that kind of decision based on a single game, no matter how hideous. On the other hand... yeah.

Fisher's got no role here. He's not moving Gurriel, Grichuk, or Hernandez out of the lineup. He's got no use as a fourth outfielder because he can't play the outfield appreciably better than I could. I do believe that there may very well be something in his bat that may eventually be unlocked... but there's simply no room for it to happen here. In which case it simply doesn't matter if he goes somewhere else and turns into Gio Urshela (who looked just as useless when he was 26.)

Clippers-Nuggets was awesome Oh, Kawhi, Kawhi. You had Kyle Lowry on your side and you decided you'd rather play with Paul George?

I think Magpie and John have it exactly right.

Whether or not Fisher may improve offensively one day, it's hard to see how he improves the current roster or which need on the roster he supplements.

I don't begrudge Kawhi for leaving. He gave the Raptors a hell of a season and he earned free agency. But I'm also not displeased to see that Clippers team fail.

I'm with the consensus that Fisher should be gone. But it doesn't have to be a big deal - he can be optioned, rather than DFA'd, and it's a sensible thing to do today so that Patrick Murphy or TJ Zeuch can join the bullpen.

If it has stayed 3-1, I would have let Fisher hit and then sent him to the shower.

Fisher doesn't have option.
Still could end up on the IL following an accident in the clubhouse though.

Oops. I was forgetting that all the time he spent in Rochester this year was on rehab, as opposed to being optioned out.

Jays have traded Justin Miller to the Reds for Future Considerations.
So, no considerations for McKinney?

I though the trade deadline was past.

Caleb Joseph is back in the Taxi Squad after clearing waivers.

I don't begrudge Kawhi for leaving.

Me neither, and we'll always have Paris and I'll always remember it fondly. But there was a lesson for him, too. Kawhi came up in a system run by a legendary coach on a team stocked with smart and selfless players whose game IQ was off the charts. He then went to a team with many of the same characteristics. Neither of the championship teams he played on blew you away with their raw talent, but no one anywhere played smarter. And he may have assumed, naturally enough, that players were like that everywhere.

So, no considerations for McKinney?

I was wondering about this too. I lament the loss of Alford as we all do, but I'm worried more that the Jays made the wrong choice between McKinney and Fisher.

Man, that was an ugly game. I think that's the first time this year that I turned off a Jays game by choice rather than because of another commitment.

Montoya made a comment about not blaming players for physical errors, only for mental ones. I'd like to know what IS a mental error to him, if closing your eyes right before the ball gets to you isn't one.

But I'm also not displeased to see that Clippers team fail.

I wonder if this failure might trigger a change, or at least give some organizations pause about how they construct their rosters. Is it better to concentrate your dollars and skills in a couple of high-end players, or to opt for depth instead? Can a strategy that seems reliable in the regular season work well enough in the playoffs where the focus on team defense is elevated?

Recent successes by the Heat and Warriors argue for the stars-and-scrubs approach. That of the Spurs and Raptors, otherwise. Of the four remaining teams, only the Lakers profile in the former category. Many, I imagine, would love for one of the other three teams to win it all, as a celebration of team basketball over the alternative.

It is understandable that Leonard would choose LA over Toronto, to go home and to try his hand at roster manipulation. I wonder if he's now thinking he might have been Toronto's missing ingredient this season. Surely we Raptor fans feel that way.

Yamaguchi is very much a 'on' or 'off' guy - his first 2 games were horrid (4 ER, 6 R over 1 IP), then 19 1/3 IP 5 ER/R 2.33 ERA over 9 games, then yesterday 7 R/ER in 1 1/3 IP. He did allow 1 run in each of his previous 4 games but all were 2+ IP. He is a traditional long reliever - ala Dennis Lamp on the '85 team for example, or Danny Cox on the '93 team (44 games, 83 IP).

"Me neither, and we'll always have Paris and I'll always remember it fondly. But there was a lesson for him, too. Kawhi came up in a system run by a legendary coach on a team stocked with smart and selfless players whose game IQ was off the charts. He then went to a team with many of the same characteristics. Neither of the championship teams he played on blew you away with their raw talent, but no one anywhere played smarter. And he may have assumed, naturally enough, that players were like that everywhere."

Exactly right. Exactly.

In retrospect, of course, the stupidity of leaving a championship team when you could have re-upper for even just a year or two and still been in line for a huge longterm deal afterwords, has never seemed clearer.

Not sure if it was here or on twitter hearing Gio Urshela referenced when it comes to Fisher. And now McKinney.

imo, these aren't comparable players, even pre-breakout. By age 26:

Urshela: 499pa, 18.1k%, .264babip, .274obp, .090iso, 57wrc+, +6.7def
Fisher: 458pa, 35.8k%, .272babip, .286obp, .182iso, 78wrc+, -3.3def
McKinney: 411pa, 25.8k%, .270babip, .291obp, .206iso, 91wrc+, -6.7def


- Fisher and McKinney are both K machines while Urshela was not
- Fisher and McKinney have already tapped into their power while Urshela hadn't yet
- Fisher and McKinney were useless defensively while Urshela was excellent defensively

A guy like Urshela broke out with a huge power surge, which happens sometimes (and I bet he probably had nice exit velo numbers which made his super-low ISO something to think would correct itself). But I don't see any similar breakout lanes for Fisher or McKinney. Maybe they get all the way up to league average or slightly better if things go well, but with negative defensive value.

Kawhi should have re-signed with the Raptors for 2 years, and then signed the super max with the Clippers/Lakers to finish out his career at home. That way he would have maximized his championship window with the Raptors, while signing his biggest, most lucrative contract in his hometown. Obviously he preferred going home ASAP, but he ended up missing out on a title window in the process. The Clippers could still contend for a title next season, but who knows what the NBA landscape will look like (Klay will be back for the Warriors, Durant for the Nets, etc).

Urshela's EVs 2015, 2017-20 (he did not play in the majors in 2016):  87.2, 87.4, 85.7, 90.6, 91.5.  League average is 88.3.  The Yankees helped him with something- it looks like they helped him hit curveballs and changeups.  Perhaps it was with pitch recognition. 

hehe. Perhaps!

Hey maybe I missed it but did the jays accuse anyone of sign stealing last night?

The New York clubs have a shared contract arrangement with a man in black to steal signs, but in these tough times, he only works for the first game of the series. 

None of us are surprised that Fisher has a lot of trouble catching fly balls consistently.

EE and Teoscar were also bad defensively consistently. I believe Teoscar improved with a lot of work in the off seasons.

EE became a DH but had already proved that he was an elite power hitter.

Teams like toolsy players even if they have flaws. Even major flaws. Gose, S Brito for example. Pompey and Alford also but due to injuries. There are probably many others.

The trading of Miller for Int'l cap room may be that you can still trade off the player pool if not on the 40 man roster. That would describe the Miller and McKinney difference. But I don't really know.

12 days left in the regular season. Decisions will be made by then regarding who gets moved where.

For example will Rowdy and Romano get healthy? If they do they would get added to the playing team. If any cannot get healthy (maybe Font, added to the 10 day IL on Sept 7) you can transfer Font to the 45/60 man IL.

The OF has too few players at the moment. If the OF get depleted due to injury during the playoffs you can use the 45/60 day IL and add Palacios at the time of the injury.

I think within 10 days of the end of the WS options have to be picked up and FAs decided on. I think Jan is when Arb has to be announced. So there is some kind of a schedule.

Few 'real' outfielders, but there are options. Real ones are Gurriel, Grichuk, Hernandez, Fisher, Davis. Less real: Biggio, Shaw has 6 inning in LF back in 2015/6, Villar had 74 2/3 innings in CF in 2015/6 and this year (2 games, 10 innings for Miami), Espinal played 12 games there (101 innings) last year in AAA. So options, but not great ones. I figure in the playoffs they'll cut Fisher (if not earlier) and play the big 3 with Davis as the backup and Biggio next with Espinal the emergency guy followed by Villar then Shaw.

The non-roster guys at camp aren't allowed into the playoffs as I understand it (only guys on the 40 man as of the 15th are) so Forest Wall and Josh Palacios can't be called up if needed - although I wouldn't be shocked if there is an injury clause in there but regardless you wouldn't want them put into that position this year.

Thanks John N.

So the taxi squad is in play (call up and down) from what we know. This sort of means that Fisher is valued as a project since he is taking up roster space.

Fisher seems to have a blind spot.
I think you can test for that.
Maybe he needs night vision goggles.

Austin Martin, CF

Make it happen.

So it seems teams can still trade players who are in their 60 players pool but not in their 40 roster.
Anyone added by Sept 15 is playoffs eligible.

Also, there are no days off in the playoffs schedule, except between series.

No days off during playoffs is a huge development -- the schedule is designed in such a way that will be multiple days between series, so this is an unexpected development as I would have thought the preference would have been to spread games out and maximize television viewership. I think this has big implications for playoff rosters, especially with regular extra-inning rules in place (no runners starting on 2nd base). Teams will likely go with shorter benches and more depth arms, especially in 5- and 7-game series.

No days off in every playoff series is going to benefit teams with rotation depth, and hurt teams who are more top heavy. The Jays have one top of the rotation arm in Ryu. If he can't start 2 games in a 5 game series, then the Jays chances of advancing are very low. The Wild Card round is at least 3 games, so winning the Ryu start and maybe bullpening your way into a 2nd win is possible. It becomes harder as the number of games in a series increase.

The one benefit the Jays might have is that they bought low on two SP's at the deadline who, if they regain their form, are very good SP's (Ray and Stripling). They are just having poor seasons, and there may not be enough time to "right" them. That's really the team's only hope. If pitchers like Walker and Roark are starting games in the playoffs, then it's probably not going to end well.

Either way, this was not meant to be a contending year, and the expanded playoffs is going to give the team a taste of playoff experience. Whatever the result, even a WC exit, is still a positive at the end of the day.

If those are real bubbles, the rosters would be fixed except in cases of injury and even then, maybe they have to use the taxi squads and call ups might need to isolate for a while before they can join the team.

This isn't the normal season. There can't be any positive testing during the playoffs or everything falls apart.

Massive difference vs the past in the playoffs with no off days during a series. Suddenly your 4th and 5th starters matter. Teams will use their #1 and 2 guys right away as always but then won't see them again until games 6 & 7 by which time they could already be eliminated. In 2001 Arizona used their big 2 to maximum effect as Shilling started 6 games over 3 series (3 in the WS) 3 complete games. Randy Johnson started 5 games plus 1 in relief and had 2 complete games. Miguel Batista was the only other starter to have a decent year for them (ERA of 3.38) but us Jay fans remember how variable he was. Albie Lopez had a 4 ERA, then the rest were over 5. Thanks to being able to cut down the staff only the 3 were needed as starters.

That can be a big factor. Tampa Bay then can't lean hard on Blake Snell, nor the Yankees on Gerritt Cole (although they have a lot of depth as the Jays have learned the hard way). For the Jays this means Ryu only gets 1 start per series probably. I expect (despite yesterday) Walker to be the #2 followed by Roark, Anderson, bullpen day (Stripling or Ray). Depending of course on who is healthy. The Jays natural tenancy to flip pitcher quickly in a game will fit nicely with the playoffs but also means that they could be in trouble quickly too. Getting through round 1 will be tough, a best of 3 is a pure crapshoot but a tiny bit better than the wildcard game.

The roster size for the playoffs is 26 with a maximum of 13 pitchers. For the wild card round, you can easily bullpen the two games other than the Ryu start.

Walker was pretty good until he had to make extra outs.
I'm still waiting for Stripling to have a good game.

Isn't Shoemaker throwing somewhere?
Pearson seems to be.

It's not like other teams have 5 aces, but the Jays don't have anybody who can go on short rest or pitch in the pen between starts.

The standings are up and down.
The Jays are now 7th but the Rays are down to second.
I didn't expect the White Sox to get in front of the Twins.

Yankees have activate Aaron Judge for tonight's game. Going for 30 runs this time?

Does anybody remember the outfielder we had for a couple of months at the end of a season a few years ago who seemed genuinely afraid of the wall? He didn’t like to get near one. It was as if there was an invisible barrier beyond which he simply could not venture. Something in a deep, dark part of my mind that I pay little attention to any more is whispering “Cameron Maybin, Cameron Maybin”; but I have no notion of whether it was him.

1. Biggio (L) RF
2. Bichette (R) SS
3. Shaw (L) 3B
4. Grich (R) CF
5. Vladdy (R) 1B
6. Gurriel (R) LF
7. Panik (L) DH
8. Villar (S) 2B
9. Jansen (R) C

1. LeMahieu (R) 2B
2. Judge (R) RF
3. Hicks (S) CF
4. Voit (R) 1B
5. Urshela (R) 3B
6. Frazier (R) LF
7. Sanchez (R) DH
8. Wade (L) SS
9. Higashioka (R) C

Tomorrow should have Judge on the bench and Stanton back at DH.

Stanton didn't do anything yesterday, so maybe it's the same for Judge.

Dewey, could that have been Ben Revere?

Your DH for tonight's game- Joe Panik.  He has 4 singles in 9 PAs against Cole (with no walks and no Ks).  Travis Shaw plays third base and VGJ plays first.  It would be more conventional to have Panik at third, Shaw at first and VGJ DHing, but what do I know.

Fisher to the "injured" list.

Unfortunately, Giles to the real injury list. Elbow. Probably it for his season.

One day too late.
Waguespack recalled?

Hernandez has been activated.

Fisher was hit by a ball during practice and has a bruised knee.

You misspelled ego.

Turns out Jeff Gilooly was the man in white all along.

"Does anybody remember the outfielder we had for a couple of months at the end of a season a few years ago who seemed genuinely afraid of the wall?"

The last few months of Colby Rasmus. I figured he wanted to avoid injury at all costs before hitting free agency.

Kay has been optioned down and we get our first chance to see Hector Perez in the majors.

Sad for Giles. But doesn't really hurt the Jays - 1-3 in his 4 games. Pre-latest injury I'd have trusted Bass, Dolis, Cole, Hatch, and Merryweather with a lead more. If Romano ever comes back I'd put him above Giles on the depth chart too. Sad end to his time here in Toronto though.

Fisher is an odd one there - for the one guy the Jays least needed to get hurt (thus the only way to keep from putting him through waivers) right at the perfect time seems a bit too convenient. Could be real, but I'm sure I'm not the only one going 'hmmm'.

Jacob Waguespack and Hector Perez (first time in majors was in AA last year, ranked #29 on the Jays prospect list by Batters Box pre-2020) both up for tonight along with Hernandez as poor Kay and his 6 BB/9 IP gets demoted with the Jays needing working arms for tonight and tomorrow. Major plus overall getting Hernandez back. Lets hope the Jays do something good tonight.

In the category of 'fire the manager' - why on earth would you put a gold glove caliber 2B at DH and play Villar at 2B instead? Lose a bet or something? And with Hernandez back why would you play Villar at all instead of putting Hernandez at DH to break him in? Weird. If Panik has been in every game and needed a partial break I could maybe see it but he didn't play Sunday and Monday was an off day. Maybe he is having some minor pain or something? That is the only logic to having him DH that I can think of.

Hernandez is not  ready to play. Not against Cole anyway.

Maybe it's about how to use the bench. This way they can pinch hit Hernandez for Panik.
Villar is a switch hitter and not a great candidate for pinch hitting.

Dewey, is it Melvin "B.J." Upton?

Roark and Anderson both give me Josh Towers vibes.

O.K., I’ve just spent about 20 minutes rummaging in Baseball Reference. I think I’m trying to remember Corey Patterson from his late 2011 stint in CF. Thanks for the suggestions, though: they each had a certain plausiblity. But the “C” in Corey is probably why I thought of Cameron Maybin (who never played for the Jays). Corey did not like to get very near to the fence.

Don’t be to smug, guys: it’ll happen to you.

Charlie should leave Roark out for all eight innings, to make up for last game’s early pull.

2020 has again been a mixed bag for this front office. We've seen some excellent player development, but again the off-season pickups via trade and free agency outside of Ryu have been terrible again.

Roark looks out of shape and he's getting lit up in the AL East. Anderson, same deal, minus the conditioning issues. Travis Shaw also looks like a borderline major leaguer. Yamaguchi has been mediocre at best, and doesn't look like a guy worthy of a two year guaranteed contract.

"There's only one thing to do when a New York ballclub takes you to the woodshed in the opener of a series"

Give up 6+ runs while getting no-hit by the Yankees in game two?

So maybe a Walker-Roark-Anderson troika isn't quite up to playoffs snuff after all.

The Yankees are looking like an experienced, challenging-for-a-championship team while the Jays look more like a young, not-quite-there-yet team.

Also, the mostly very good performance of the bullpen has kind of hid the fact that the starting rotation is not that strong.

The good news is the Jays wouldn't face the Yankees in rounds 1 or 2 most likely. If the Jays got to the 3rd round I think we'd all be extremely happy. Heck, just getting to round 1 is a big deal (and not a lock yet).

Luckily Seattle is 4 1/2 back of the Jays, Detroit 5, Baltimore 5 1/2, the rest 7+ back. Could one of them catch the Jays (or Jays fall back to them)? Yes. Is it likely? no. 47 done, 48th pretty much done (8-1 losing right now) so just 12 to go. Would take a lot to fall out but those 5 more games vs NY look ugly now. Thank goodness for the 3 at the end vs Baltimore, hopefully the 4 vs the Phillies go well and let them get to a locked into the playoffs so the final 7 don't matter beyond fighting for 2nd place in the East. Round 1 vs the White Sox or Rays. Hey, a TON better than any of us dared hope on August 16th - 7-11, 3 1/2 behind the O's, 2 back of the final WC slot. 4th worst in the AL. 19-10 since with only the White Sox doing better despite no Bo, no Hernandez for a chunk, etc.

Makes me sad to see Waguespack get lit up. He’s one of my favourite bubble guys

"while the Jays look more like a young, not-quite-there-yet team."

...with a an old beat up stitched together pitching staff.

Waguespack better be careful or he could be next in line to be Giloolied.

It's unfortunate that Pearson got hurt. I still think he could have been an adequate #2 in the postseason this year. Ryu, Pearson, Ray could have been a decent front three.

In two years, the Jays rotation could look something like Pearson, SWR, Ryu, Manoah (Stripling, Kay, Kloffenstein, Hatch, ???). Although I have an uneasy feeling that Pearson's reconstructed elbow isn't going to hold up enough for him to be a 160+ IP starter.

In any event, given the attrition that will inevitably deplete the pitching staff, the team will likely need to acquire at least one more frontline SP in the coming seasons.

Hector Perez looks like great stuff and no command.
Enough with the high fastballs to Hishi.
I think he's just sitting on that.

In the first two games of the series, the Jays were outscored 33-8.

The Yankees probably used Loaisiga in relief just to remind the Jays about the Loaiza-Young trade. Adding insult to injury, etc.

Turns out Jeff Gilooly was the man in white all along.

It was just Matt Shoemaker, doing his fellow pitchers a solid. Veteran leadership, the kind every team needs.

I spent most of the evening scrolling through the Da Box archives for the first half of the 2011 season. Why, you ask? Looking for confirmation of Dewey's suspicion that Corey Patterson was the long-ago outfielder who had a thing about the wall. (This is always like going down an Internet rabbit-hole.) Didn't find anything. But I stumbled across something I'd written when the Marlins hauled 80 year old Jack McKeon out of retirement and installed him in the dugout. I was delighted, and wrote a recap of Trader Jack's interesting career, and noted that when he began his managerial career, Leo Durocher was still managing in the majors. Which in turn led me to look at Leo Duurocher's major league debut, way back in 1925. And there - there, my hearties - I was flummoxed.

this boxscore simply fascinates me! The Yankees were trailing 8-7 heading for the bottom of the ninth, but they scored two runs off Lefty Grove (who'd come on to pitch the final inning) for the walk-off victory. Durocher, pinch running for Ben Pascahl (who had batted for the pitcher and hit a single) scored one of the two runs.

But I can't figure out the inning. Grove pitched to four batters, recording two outs and allowing two hits and two runs. One of the runs was unearned. The Yankees sent 38 men to the plate, which suggests that the last batter was Mark Koenig - that Grove faced Bengough (1-4, did not score), Paschal (1-1, Durocher pinch ran and scored), Combs (2-5, scored twice and drove in 1), and Koenig, who went 1-5 on the day, and did not drive in a run.

How did those two runs score? It looks like Bengough made an out, Paschal singled, Combs singled - scoring Durocher? - and Koening made an out - scoring Combs? There was no sac fly stat recorded in 1925, so the game certainly could have ended on a flyout to the outfield. But why was one of the runs unearned? Probably because of a defensive miscue that advanced the runners. The A's did make one error in the game. However, that error was made by right fielder Walt Frecnh, who came out of the game around the fifth or sixth inning. A passed ball? Passed balls were being recorded in 1925, and the boxscore doesn't charge catcher Cy Perkins with one. Nor is Grove recorded as having thrown a wild pitch or committing a balk. The Yankees didn't steal any bases. How did Durocher get from first to home because of the Combs at bat (which was probably a single) and how did Combs get from first to home because of the Koening at bat (which was probably an out?).

The game was played 86 years ago, in front of a crowd listed as 1,000. I wonder if we'll ever find out what happened...

It looks like we have. Back in 2011, I was looking at a boxscore with a) no play-by-play information and b) a number of mistakes. The inning went like this:

Bengough - foul popfly to 1b
Paschal - double (Durocher pinch runs)
Combs - single, Durocher scores, Combs to second on throw
Koenig - groundout 4-3, Combs to third, Combs scores

It's still a mystery to me how Combs scored from second on a 4-3 groundout. But Paschal's hit is now a double, both runs allowed are earned. That's some progress, at least.

I read a book about a month ago detailing the first year Jackie Robinson broke into the majors (1947). Leo Durocher missed this historic season because commissioner Hap Chandler suspended him before the season citing a string of moral shortcomings including gambling debts, association with known gamblers and nightlife figures of questionable character, and a scandalous marriage with charges of adultery, bigamy and contempt of court.

Branch Rickey, the Brooklyn owner and general manager said of Durocher," He has the fertile ability to turn a bad situation into something worse." Robinson faced horrible verbal abuse from other teams, even sometimes the other team's managers and it wouldn't have been hard to imagine Durocher getting numerous altercations with them. Durocher's replacement was Burt Shotton who was completely opposite in personality being a mild-mannered man who even refused to wear a uniform and instead wore a suit in the dugout. Shotton, however, backed Jackie Robinson completely and guided the Dodgers to the pennant that year before they lost to the Yankees in 7 games in the world series.

Magpie, re the 1925 mystery.  The boxscore and play-by play on BBRef says that Combs scored from second base on the 4-3 groundout after a throw to third base with no RBI attributed.  Presumably Combs rounded the third base bag on the 4-3 and the first baseman tried to throw behind him, Combs kept running and beat the play at the plate.

If you commit an error while attempting a double play, it doesn't count as an error because you can never assume a double play. According to Buck, anyway.

As it stands:

Cleveland at White Sox
Blue Jays at Rays
Astros at A's
Yankees at Twins

Meh. Worse case would be to play the Yankees in NY.
Rays in Florida don't seem so bad now.

Bill James had a little piece on Urban Shocker in his Historical Abstract.  While having a look at Combs, I ran into this interesting bio from SABR on Shocker.  So much that I did not know. 

Urbain Jacques is definitively French. Shockcor though?
Maybe his grandmother was French.

If you commit an error while attempting a double play, it doesn't count as an error because you can never assume a double play.

If you get the forceout and then pull the 1st baseman off the bag or you then drop the ball, it's not an error. That's the type of play Buck is referencing.

If you get the forceout and then toss the ball into the dugout, then it is an error because runners advance.

Right, but if you get the first out at first and then fail to get the second unforced out is that an error?
What if there's a hit and run and there is no play at 3rd, you go to first for the first out and the runner takes off home and the catcher doesn't make the tag? Should someone get an error? The catcher for missing with the tag?

Or what if the runner tackles the catcher and he drops the ball? Was that an error on the catcher?

I would imagine a runner trying to score while another runner is part of a potential double play would be considered a separate play.

The general "can't assume a double play" is for 2 potential outs on the same play, both "forced" outs. It's not considered an error if you aren't fast/precise enough to get both runners, but nothing else happens on the play. I.e. runner at first, ball is put in play and you only get one runner and the other one ends up at the base they were forced to advance to.

If you have a potential for a non-forced out, that's totally different and a separate play. And that's where the scorer's judgment comes in, IIRC. For example: runner at 2nd tries to score on a single - if you throw the ball home, but don't get the runner because you were just a bit late, off-line, and the batter ends up at 1st, that's not an error. If the batter is able to take 2nd on the throw, because it was from deep LF or something, I believe also not an error. On the other hand, if you throw the ball in a way that it goes out of play or misses the catcher (or the catcher misses it) and the batter was going to stay at 1st, but is THEN able to advance, that would be an error. That's why they have a scorer. Similar to ruling if a ground ball was an infield hit, or an error on the fielder.

Same with stealing a base - a "stolen base" is not an error on the pitcher, the catcher or the fielder, assuming the throw is late, or the tag is missed. But throwing the ball over the 2nd baseman's head so that he runner can take 3rd, that IS an error.

Not 100% if the catcher has full control of the ball and the runner tries the "bulldozer" approach and knocks the ball loose. I think that's considered an error on the catcher.
This covers a lot of situations:https://baseballscoring.wordpress.com/site-index/errors/

Which book Island Boy? I've read a couple on the Ghosts of Brooklyn. Such a fascinating 10 years from 47-57.

Looks like we will be in the playoffs. If so we need to hope that some/enough of our position players are hot. They all seem to run hot and cold. This is the way it is every year. We also are inexperienced and lose games that way.

I really like UO's description of our pitching staff. " old, beat up and stitched together".

Getting Ryu was jumping on opportunity. I suspect but cannot know the $ he is generating for Rogers is very good revenues. Roark, Shoemaker and Anderson's spots in the rotation was theirs to lose. Pearson claiming a spot had a high probability. Thornton was guaranteed 1st chance in case of any injuries or he could just out play an incumbent when the opportunity came.

Atkins did a good job of bolstering the rotation with healthy arms at a reasonable price as the trade deadline approached.

Only Ryu is a good pitcher on this staff going into next year IMO. I think Ryu and 3 mediocre old guys at most could be enough for next year. Roark and Stripling are already here. Anderson's option may not have to be picked up. With about 7 young unproven pitchers including Pearson maybe the FO will give them a real chance.

We just saw Hector Perez and he looks worse than SRF.
He still has an option next year to try to figure something out.

We haven't seen Zeuch and Murphy.
Maybe because they are still seen as starter.
Hatch will probably get a try.
Josh Winckowski will have to be added to the reserve roster in December.
He's prospect #30 by MLB and he had decent numbers in A+.

Looking at the top 12 players by bWAR, 11 will be returning next year, exception being Bass.

Teoscar Hernandez is back in the lineup and playing right field tonight. 

JB21, the book I referred to was Opening Day, The Story of Jackie Robinson's First Season by Jonathan Eig. I would recommend it as it was well written and really shone a light on baseball at that time. Jackie faced tremendous pressure, of course, and even some of his own teammates were racist but his talent won a lot of people over. Besides the obvious lack of black players, baseball was different then. The players didn't have big salaries, T.V.'s weren't widespread and many fans listened to the games on the radio.

What's the guess on how many home runs the Yankees will hit tonight? Six again, more or less?

One home run for the Bronx Bumblers and four for the Muscular Jays tonight.  Enjoy the barrage!

Starter is Merryweather?

Font and Zeuch activated. LIkely 2 guys called up yesterday are optioned but no announcement yet.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1306684878566625280

Huh, so Donaldson get ejected in the 6th inning, the White Sox scored twice in the 7th to take a 4-3 lead, and the Twins were shout out in the 7th through 9th innings. His spot probably never came up in those last 3 innings with his team down by a run, though.

I've actually read it and I really enjoyed it. Might be time to read it again. Thanks Island Boy!

Perez is down and Waguespack has been put on the IL with a back strain.

Presumably Combs rounded the third base bag on the 4-3 and the first baseman tried to throw behind him, Combs kept running and beat the play at the plate.

That makes sense. A pretty daring piece of base running, too. Babe Ruth was the next hitter. You wouldn't want to get thrown out.

Why do I have this feeling that Josh ten years from now will be the next Aubrey Huff? Just seems like a miserable person.

I really do respect Charlie Montoyo's positive approach. Yet, C.B. Bucknor has missed four pitches early on in this ballgame, including a strikeout call to Biggio and then squeezes Merryweather on a couple pitches leading to runs and he doesn't stick up for his players. That would really irk me as a competitor.

Apparently Chase Anderson is the "featured pitcher." I like it.

It's a much more positive spin than the bulk guy.

series saving generous strike call there.

(?)

A good point made on twitter that the Jays making the playoffs is a bonus this year. Being in a playoff race at all is a bonus. We should enjoy this as the Jays should be in junk ball time now - not contending. Where we are hoping to see guys get a chance to play who have never reached the majors before this year. What is funny is we are getting that anyways - Kirk among others. The 3rd youngest team ever in Jays history (hitters) at 25.9 so far (1980 and 1981 were 25.8 so if Kirk got a lot of playing time it could shift back down to that level, same with lots of Bo time). Gotta love it. If they win any playoff games I see it as a massive bonus, and if by some miracle they get past the first round super-big bonus.

The Yankees broadcast just told a story of Paul Beeston having a long conversation with John Flaherty, thinking he was David Cone the entire time.

yep, series saving generous strike call.

In a lot of ways, I don't really view it as a bonus, John.

I'm firmly against the idea of the expanded playoffs and I'd rather the Jays were playing the Yankees and the teams were fighting for the 5th and final playoff spot, rather than fighting between the 5th and 7th playoff spots. I'd rather that, even though the Jays are likely to finish behind teh Yankees (and would be out of the playoffs under the old system).

While I would grudgingly accept the expanded playoffs this year due to 2020 Weirdness, it appears MLB is doing exactly what I feared and using this as an excuse to adopt the format permanently.

Cool, cool, cool, more baserunning outs.

Hoo boy is CB Bucknor some kind of terrible.

I don't mean to harp on this; but is Montoyo responding to this brutally one sided umpiring? I missed the latest one, what happened?

As per my comment, Roark and Anderson are Josh Towers.

featured pitcher, folks.

3 pitches 3 dingers.

gotta be a record.

I always find it funny how people complain about expanded playoffs but forget playoffs beyond the World Series are all expanded. Up until the year I was born ('69) only 2 teams were in the playoffs - the #1 team in each league. Under that method we'd have a heck of a race with White Sox leading by 1 over Tampa, 2 over Oakland, 3 over Minny, 4 1/2 over the Yankees. Jays 6 out with a faint chance. The NL wouldn't be as interesting with the Dodgers leading by 3 1/2 over San Diego, 5 over the Cubs. The 1969-1993 method that I was used to was 2 per league - winners of east and west. That would put the White Sox by 2 over Oakland, 3 over Minnesota, Tampa by 2 1/2 over the Yankees, Jays 5 out. The single wild card (1993-2011) would have it Tampa/Chicago/Oakland, then Minnesota by 1 1/2 over the Yankees, Jays 3 out and fading fast. The double wild card (2012-2019) would have the Jays 1 1/2 out behind the Yankees with Cleveland only 1/2 behind the Jays.

So it depends what type of traditionalist you are. Me? I gave up on it awhile ago. The regular season is what matters most, playoffs are a different season entirely.

tasty looking rotation here.

man in white earning his money this series.

Wow. This is great hitting, but Chase Andrerson's stuff looks like its from little league.

Uncle

Honestly, at this point I'm shocked no Jay pitcher has thrown at a Yankee hitter. At one time that was an automatic by this point. After 3 home runs on 3 pitches, Anderson should've tossed inside to at least scare the batter a tiny bit. Instead he kept serving up meatballs. I mean, might as well let Espinal pitch at this point. Of course, with Font coming in they are pretty much doing that.

Good thing we don't have to play the Yankees again... ... awww crap!

Anderson must have whiplash from watching all those homeruns sail over his head. This is embarrassing.

Font. Hilarious. Glad I’m not watching.

Interesting to see so many think we’re a lock for the playoffs. I don’t. Hitting’s gone cold as well. Hopefully we get there, but it’s not a guarantee with a bunch of Yankee games to moe. They even crunched Ryu.

They're as close to a playoff lock as you can get.
After that, I'm not sure what happens...

Yankees 18 HR in their last 3 games is the most in any 3-game span in MLB history.

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) September 18, 2020

I guess the feature tonight was a horror flick. Terrible ratings on Rotten Tomatoes too.

"One home run for the Bronx Bumblers and four for the Muscular Jays tonight"

I hope you didn't put any dollar signs on the Muscle.

Nah. The clubs must have put on the wrong uniforms  Excellent job by Lourdes to put the right one on.

I think eventually Montoyo will have to move Gurriel Jr. up in the order and drop Grichuk down. Biggio, Bichette, Hernandez, VGJ and LGJ should be the top five (not necessarily in that exact order).

I imagine Martin will join that top tier of hitters in the next year or so. Maybe Groshans and Kirk, too.

I don't think most of us have "forgotten" the history of the baseball playoffs, John. Most people against the expanded playoffs would (I assume) either a) like to go back to the 2-team format or b) would accept the 5-team format.

In any case, if you want expanded playoffs, great. But seeing teams at or under .500 in the playoffs isn't a bonus for a lot of baseball fans. And I don't think I'm alone in hoping it doesn't come to fruition.

Yes. Gurriel Jr. Is slugging over .500 for his career. He's not a 7 hitter.

Thomas: true enough, but we nearly had a sub 500 in 1994 if the strike didn't happen (the entire 4 team AL West were sub 500 when the season ended), and also in 2006 it came close to a sub 500 winning it all as the Cardinals were just 83-78 and went all the way. Once we got to 3 divisions it was bound to happen eventually. Expanding to 8 teams per division guaranteed it would happen. As I said though I see it as 2 seasons - regular and post-season. The regular determines the best team, the playoffs are the fun time. Playoffs are such short series (even best of 7) that it is a crapshoot. A fun crapshoot, but crapshoot none the less. Look at the 1998 Yankees (won 114 games) - they started 1-4 and if that was a playoff series they'd have been out. In 2001 Seattle won 116 regular season games but was knocked out in the second round 4-1 by the 95-65 Yankees, after almost losing to the 91-71 Cleveland team (3-2). The 1987 Tigers (who beat a great Jays team in the final weekend of the season) lost in the first round to a much weaker Minnesota team that would go on to win it all. The 1985 Jays lost to a much weaker Royals team who also went on to win it all (Bobby Cox got badly outmanaged).

To relax and enjoy it all is best imo. 2 different types of seasons - one is a long haul (even if just 60 games) the other is a series of short contests where anyone can win (the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, by far the worst team in ML history (20-134) won 2 out of 4 in a series vs Boston (a 95-57 team) if it was a series like the playoffs this year they would've advanced (won 2 of the first 3 in the 4 game set). Baseball is a funny game.

Can someone explain the rationale for running out Joe Panik on a daily basis when Santiago Espanal is on the roster?

This, this, this -- both remind me of Towers. It was ugly and for those who didn't see him in 2006, a team that was decent at run prevention, and/or 2007, a team that was spectacular at run prevention... the numbers tell the story.

When Towers was on the mound in 2006, which he was for 4.3% of the IP by the boys in blue, he surrendered 8.2% of all the runs scored against the Jays. In 2007 things were much the same for Towers, on the mound for 7.4% of the total IP, he surrendered 10.4% of the 699 runs allowed by the 2007 team.

I'm sure they all have great spin rates and all but what do you guys think the average fastball velo of our starters....i mean featured pitchers is?

oh come on boys do this thing now

christaylor thank you. The odd thing about Towers was how quickly it would go south. He'd retire 7 of the first 8, a couple strikeouts. Then in the middle of an he would completely lose location and it would 6-1 in about five minutes.

DO THIS

LET'S GOOOO

But seeing teams at or under .500 in the playoffs isn't a bonus for a lot of baseball fans.

I am in that category. Middling or worse teams shouldn't have a right to fluke into a championship, in any sport. The regular season should mean something. Those six months should be about more than eliminating the bottom feeders.

13 Jays pitchers (12 plus Espinal) threw at least 1 inning this series. The only one who didn't give up a run? Wilmer Font.

[Donaldson's] spot probably never came up in those last 3 innings with his team down by a run, though.

Came up in the eighth. His replacement struck out.

But seeing teams at or under .500 in the playoffs isn't a bonus for a lot of baseball fans.

Seeing their teams in the playoffs when they wouldn't be otherwise IS a bonus for a lot of fans. Note I didn't say baseball fans, but fans of teams. And there a a lot more of those than there are of fans who like to watch baseball without their home team playing.

Hypobole, I understand your point, and I'm sure a bunch of people fit the exact category you speak of, but I'm a Blue Jays fan and I don't want the Blue Jays in the playoffs in 2021 with the AL's 8th best record.

I'm not saying I will boycott the playoffs if there are 8 teams per league in the postseason, but I don't want it. Even if it's likely to benefit the Blue Jays in the near future (which it probably is).

"[Donaldson's] spot probably never came up in those last 3 innings with his team down by a run, though."

" Came up in the eighth. His replacement struck out"

I think the statement was sarcasm, Magpie. Three innings equals a minimum of 9 batters so his spot had to come up. It referred more to the fact that Donaldson selfishly decided to show up the umpire and got thrown out of a close game with their main rival.

Guess the reason I'm OK with it is I grew up as a hockey fan first, baseball second (reversed over the years). With hockey in the Toronto area you had a team who could only aspire to sneak in with the 16th slot for playoffs then hope your team could by some miracle make the 2nd round. I think the Leafs have only made the 3rd round in my 50 years 2 or 3 times. Just checked and it is 5 times (1978, 1993 & 1994, 1999, 2002). From 1982 to 1992 they missed the playoffs 6 times (despite 16 of 21 or 22 making it). Ugh. No wonder I gave up and shifted to baseball.

Yeah, we'll eventually have a sub-500 team fluke its way to a WS title. But like I said above the minute they shifted from 'best in league' to a playoff structure that was inevitable. I expect if MLB stays with 16 in the playoffs we'll see teams structure like the NHL and NBA have - where the top teams start planning for the playoffs from day one - figuring out who is best in short series. For MLB that means more useful utility players - guys who are great baserunners, great 1 or 2 inning relievers, etc.

John, I feel your pain on the Leafs. They are the Yankees of hockey with tremendous fan support, many championships, and great wealth yet in the 50 some years I've followed them they've done diddly-squat. From 2006 to 2016 they qualified for the playoffs ONCE and haven't won a playoff series since 2004. No wonder I got so excited during the Jay's 2 year playoff run.

Grichuk was 5 for 18 against Tanaka, including 4 homeruns.
I think Gurriel was o-for-something.

We still have young hitters who are changing and getting hot and cold.

Last game the Yankees 9 hitter had 3 homeruns and at least 8 RBIs, so the order isn't everything.

It's a business - if the new playoff model brings in more revenue, then it's likely to be adopted - fans view of the new format is incidental - as a consumer, you have a choice.It can also be argued that teams are less likely to tank because "contending" for a playoff spot is less arduous.

The Yankees of hockey would be Montreal.
The Leafs are the Red Sox of hockey.
They don't call it a curse because they're never good enough to look unlucky.

I'm not exactly overcome with confidence in Montoya. I hope he's doing a great job on all the stuff we can't see, because his lineup construction and pitcher choices are often questionable, and he looks shell-shocked sitting on the bench. I never thought Gibbons was deserving of his job, but at least he was entertaining to watch.

Why Joe Panik? Veteran Presence®!

Zeuch looked decent. He was making pitches on both corners in the one inning I watched.
Hatch has a lot of potential, but I think it's going to take him some time to figure it out.

I don't understand why Merryweather was the opener if it was not to throw fastballs against the top hitters.
There was no point in having him there to throw sliders and curves.

The ump was brutal until he got hit in the head.
I don't know if it's a coincidence.

Panik was hot for a while.
He could get hot again against the Phillies who don't have great pitching.

The Jays hitters don't look good after a day off.
The starting pitchers are not allowed to go deep in games and don't need an extra day of rest outside of Ryu.
Actually, if if what it takes, they should not hesitate to keep Ryu well rested next year.
He doesn't have a great health history.

Against the Phillies we' re going to miss Nola and Wheeler, Arrieta and Spencer are on the IL.
Should be like facing AAA pitching.

With the 16-team playoffs format, you just need to play for .500 and have 2 aces to have a decent chance.
That really seems to one area to improve for next year. The problem is that they already have lots of arms.

Ugh, I keep typing "Montoya" instead of "Montoyo".

Sorry Charlie, you keep reminding me of that character from The Princess Bride. In name, anyway.

Mike, I posted that before I had seen the replay. The YES Network spent the entire next half inning extolling the virtues of Tanaka's play. I think an elite baserunner may have noticed Tanka's positioning and adjusted accordingly, but it's also very understandable why Bichette didn't. It's not in the same category as some of other misadventures on the bases this season.

Don't look now but Daniel Vogelbach has a 1.035 OPS with Milwaukee so far.

Well that series shot our pitchers to 'bleep'.

A few days ago our staff looked really good. Now the ERA+ is down to 98. Walker & Ryu are the only 'real' starters with ERA+'s over 100. Ray, Merryweather, and Hatch also are over 100. Jays have used 11 different starters this year, 9 two or more times. Yikes.

Relief: 6 guys with 20-22 1/3 innings pitched - Bass, Dolis, Cole, Hatch, Kay, Yamaguchi. Hatch had 2 1/3 IP as a starter so he is actually sub 20 for relief innings. No reliever has thrown as many innings as Shoemaker did as a starter (25). Many have glossy ERA's, but for xFIP things are different. By xFIP you get Sub 3: Romano (IL), Bergen/Moran (both gone); 3-4: Merryweather; 4-4.5: Ray, Bass, Dolis, Stripling; 4.5-5: Font, Borucki; 5+: Hatch, Giles (IL), Cole, Waguespack, Yamaguchi, Zeuch, Kay, SRF; 6+: Anderson, Perez, Gaviglio, Espanal. So that pen that has looked so good, really isn't. They've been very, very lucky. We can hope that holds up but like most of us I bought into the luck. The Yankees obviously didn't.

So for the rest of the year we should hold tight and hope the Jays get some luck this final week to sneak into the playoffs and give the young core a tiny bit of playoff experience. Then for 2021 an overhaul of the pitching staff will be needed outside of Ryu (3.10 xFIP). I figure Merryweather will be a part as will Romano. After that no one should be safe. Trades, free agents, promotions, etc. These last 3 games really made it obvious that more is needed before this is a really good team.

I'm not sure of the issue with Joe Panik. He's got a .354 OBP on the season, and has a .316/.447/.474 line in September. Obviously a small sample but this is a season of small samples.

I can't get on Montoya much. team is beating expectations by a large margin, and his roster is so full of unproven and/or interchangeable talent that I have a hard time nitpicking his daily roster choices.

I mean who the hell would have predicted that Teoscar/Tellez would be our best hitters this year deserving of the 3/4 slots?

I mean we could get angry at him for playing panik ahead of Espinal....except that espinal is a 25yr old (only 4yrs younger than panik!) and has very little hope of being an mlb caliber hitter.

meanwhile panik is a nice regression success story so far this year - after a couple of perhaps unlucky years he's bounced back to being his usual versatile 2-way player with good D, good running, and league average offense.

am I going to get mad at the manager for playing the better player over a 25yr old bench prospect? nah.

I agree with Thomas about playoffs. In 2020 we could rank as #6-8 and pull off upsets. In 2021 (wishful thinking) we could be the 2nd best team in the AL and get eliminated fast. When we are high in the standings Jays fans may complain about the playoff construction. For years when fighting for the 8th spot it will be a positive.

Panik has the 6th highest position player WAR on the team, tied with Grichuk, and ahead of Vlad and Shaw. Good OBP and about league average as a hitter. Obviously if Panik were not performing then his playing time would be more questionable, but he's been very solid for the team this season. SSS, but this whole season is going to be a SSS.

No argument about the lineup construction, though. Practically every game there's a head scratching lineup decision that makes no sense. Shaw hasn't been a good hitter in 2 years, and Grichuk has a 100 wRC+/.290 OBP in 2199 plate appearances since the start of 2016 (that's 5 seasons). They should be batting lower in the lineup. Even if you want to argue lineup construction game to game is not that important, the logical thing to do is still to give your best hitters the most AB's. Not sure why this is a daily issue with this team.

If this year went the way it was expected to - sub 500 and no chance at playoffs - then playing Espinal over Panik would make a ton of sense. Instead the Jays are fighting for a playoff slot thus you play the hot hand. Now DH'ing Panik is the height of stupidity imo unless there are injury issues we are not aware of (which is always possible).

How many would've said pre-season the Jays could field a team with just 2 guys sub 100 OPS+ at this late stage? Over 100 regulars: Vlad, Biggio, Bichette, Gurriel, Grichuk, Hernandez, (Tellez IL). 3B/CA are the only sub 100 OPS+ positions at this point. Panik is at 94 so he could bump over 100 by years end, Shaw at 89 could also with a few big games get there. Kirk with just 9 PA could easily get there with one good game. Davis is at 244 (9 PA) right now as well. Funny - Davis has as many hits as Alford had here (16 PA), more than McKinney (3 PA), and is closing in on Fisher & Drury (7 over 39 PA and 49 PA), and tied with McGuire (3 over 45).

Wonder if SRF is coming back up today (send down Zeuch as he is out for 3-4 days anyways) with Perez as the extra man for the double header? Would make sense if it can be done (depends on minimum time in minors which is waived for the 29th man). 15 days is the minimum for pitchers unless an injury happens (wonder if Zeuch pulled a hamstring on his way to the shower last night). Hmm...checking it doesn't work - SRF last pitched on the 9th, Perez on the 16th. Other pitchers on the 40 man are Patrick Murphy and Elvis Luciano. Others in camp are Bryan Baker, Alek Manoah, Joey Murray, Thomas Pannone, Ty Tice, and Simeon Woods Richardson. Some obviously won't be called up under any circumstances, others we have no idea if healthy or doing well at camp.

I guess the pitching is the only thing to figure out before the playoffs start.

The only veteran SP that is reliable is Ryu. All the others have not earned any guarantee. The injured Shoemaker, Pearson and Romano if back are probably 1-3 innings max. 50 pitches I suppose.

Zeuch threw 61 pitches yesterday so he is stretched out. I don't know how far behind Waguespack and Yamaguchi he is or Font. Zeuch may be good for 60+ pitches and groundball outs. I see that as a strength of his.

That's not the point. Bichette had a jogging start and switched gear when he saw the relay was high.
That's actually smart baserunning. He would have been safe had he sprinted out of the box.
The baserunner has to check where the ball is, not where the pitcher is.
I can't blame him for not running hard because he's just coming off a knee injury that made him miss most of the season.

Biggio does this all the time. He takes off for second as soon as he sees a pitch heading for the dirt.
He doesn't wait to see what the catcher does with it. By the time the catcher has the ball there is no play.

Perhaps Zeuch should be the starter or bulk guy instead of Anderson when that slot next comes around , likely on Tuesday.

I don't see Romano coming back. Only 10 days left and he's no throwing.
Pearson will probably be 2 innings max, but they better make sure he's fully back.
Shoemaker is going to throw 60 pitches and then get a start.
I could see him getting up to 80 pitches, if he doesn't struggle.

I think they are stretching out Shoemaker with the hopes that he can start in Wildcard Game 2 or 3 and go 75 to 90 pitches. He did ~45 pitches in live BP on Wednesday, then hopefully ~60 on Sunday, which would then put him in line to be activated & start on Sept. 25th (~75 pitches) and then start again on Sept. 30th or Oct. 1st. That is, of course, all wishful thinking at this point.

I think Taijuan Walker should absolutely start in the playoffs as well, as he's the only other guy with the upside & capability of shutting down an opponent for 6 or 7 innings (which he has done in 3 of his 9 starts this year).

I expect that with the state of the pitching, no off days, and 16 teams in the playoffs, we're going to see some crooked numbers in some post-season games... think Game 4 of the 1993 World Series

2 7-innings games today. All of the high leverage arms are very well rested.

The Tigers have fallen behind the Royals. Baltimore and Seattle are down to 2.2% chance of making the playoffs.

Ryu will pitch on Saturday.
If you leave him on regular rest he starts again on Thursday and pitches game 1.
Walker is in line to start on Wednesday.
Now if Ryu doesn't look sharp today, they could give him an extra day and save him for game 2.
Ideally Shoemaker gets the potential Thursday start.

I imagine they'll do some move to get Ray/Stripling rested.
We'll see.

When Ryu is not pitching in the playoffs we will be on edge I think. Somehow we get to the 7th inning with a 2 run lead someone and Yamaguchi. Then the 1 inning relievers take over for 7,8 and 9. Very exciting.

Or just beat the crap out of someone once in a while. Preferably the clinching game of a series. Like in 2015 and 2016.

FanGraphs has the Jays at 97% playoff odds - woohoo! They have 3 methods listed, 97% for their strongest, 95.4% using season to date stats, 95.9% using coin flip method (ie: every game is a 50-50 odds of winning). Cleveland and Houston are the other teams with a sub 100% odds who are in playoff position (using best method). Others with a chance are... Seattle 1.6%, Baltimore 1.1%, Angels 0.9%, Tigers 0.5%, Royals 0.4%. 6.5% chance to catch the Yankees, 15.6% via coin flip.

This is fun. So much better than wanting to see the kids play more and wondering which free agents will leave, hoping most of the vets are traded soon. Like we did for 2017/18/19 and most of 1994-2014.

I think the statement was sarcasm, Magpie.

I thought it might be, just wasn't sure. Figured I'd report what happened. Silly Josh.

Yep, it was sarcasm. I did chuckle when Magpie reported that his replacement struck out. Such a team player, that Josh!

Fortunately Seattle, Detroit and Baltimore have all lost a few in a row but it would be nice to wind down our magic number with a few wins. Tonight would be nice.