Doesn't that double count ground ball outs at second base?

It can - putouts on force plays look exactly the same as putouts on line drives and popups. But I figure it applies equally in 1969 and 2019.

You can break out the forceouts with the advance defence stats at baseball-reference, which give detailed breakouts of both assists and putouts by type of play.

I agree that what is shocking (not to me but to the non-stat-obsessed) is the degree to which the importance of middle infield defence has plunged over the last 20 years. Vastly fewer balls hit on the ground in the middle of the diamond ("in the V" as the cricket term has it). It's not guys making fewer plays, the ball tracking data shows the same.

Also, hello everyone! It's rather exciting to be watching playoff Jays baseball again.

Yeah, I didn't really care about the double counting. I was interested in the trend over time. Today you can get away with Derek Jeter in the middle of the infield. You could have gotten away with Hubie Brooks. (Or Troy Glaus!)

But back when your fielders needed to come up with 24 of the 27 outs - you needed Ozzie Smith out there, and before him you needed Marty Marion.

The Appalachian League is being converted to a college summer circuit for rising freshmen and sophomores.
MLB and USA Baseball are trying to get the NCAA to agree that participation does not detract from college eligibility--which presumable means the players will not be remunerated.

Affected teams include Bluefield.

Also, did I mention that Ottawa will field a Frontier League team next year?

Anyone doing a live chat, like was done a few times WAY back when? I'll most likely be working (PST time zone) but have the game on, or doing my usual "exercise while watching sports" routine..
Alas, mlb.tv just doesn't want my business for postseason, so I'll need to use a streaming service..

TB's bench is now:
Michael Perez  (C) L
Ji-Man Choi (1B) L
Yandy Diaz (1B/3B) R
Michael Brosseau (INF/OF) R
Brett Phillips (OF) L
Hunter Renfroe (OF/1B) R

Choi and Diaz have been activated but haven't played in a while.

And nice to hear your voice here, CraigB.

(not enough coffee yet, so could be way off)
Maybe more outs at the corners due to more (extreme) shifting? Lots of foul-outs to 1B/C as well, due to trying to hit the ball in the air?

Do the fielding counts include things like DP, caught stealing, etc? Maybe a bunch more guys thrown out at the plate?

1st old-school outrage of the postseason. Grienke pulled after 4 IP and 79 pitches, despite only 2 hits and 1 run.

IIRC, the shifting started after 2009.  It would explain an increase in third base numbers between 2009 and 2019. 

Very interesting, as usual - thank you Magpie. There are many things that jump out at me in general but, specific to the Jays, it reinforces my view that the current front office has been off the mark in punting on the team's outfield defence and its defence in CF, in particular.

I expect either the Jays offense is really on and scores 10, or are shut out. Sadly shut out is the more likely outcome vs Snell. Lets hope. Bonus game #1 about to start.

Greinke pulled after 4 IP and 79 pitches, despite only 2 hits and 1 run.

Mark Prior and Kerry Wood both just fainted in disbelief. "Dusty did what?"

From the Twins game on why Greinke was pulled

Guy 1: 1st 79 pitches opponents hit .246, 80 pitches on .364.

Guy 2: How can he change that if he's never given a chance?

Double plays, caught stealing, shorter games (less extra innings?), more home team winning (and not needing a bottom of the ninth)? Are sac flies/sac bunts counted differently at all? Better pitcher fielding?

There are a lot of potential variables.

Interesting data Magpie. I didn't realize the differences were so pronounced and focused almost exclusively on the middle infield.

Personally I'd rather see fewer strikeouts so more balls are in play and more movement on the basepaths. Perhaps things will change over time as hitters get more acclimatized to the high number of power pitchers (or more players with elite bat speed are promoted).  Tennis went through something similar starting around the Boris Becker days until players caught up with the faster serves. Certainly becoming a game for younger batters. 30 somethings and 95+ heat often don't mix.

third base numbers went down

The big drop is from 1969 and 1979 to all the rest of the years. And it's simple! Brooks Robinson retired and Graig Nettles went to the National League!

Tennis went through something similar starting around the Boris Becker days until players caught up with the faster serves.

In tennis, though, the biggest factor by far is the way court technology has developed. Wimbledon changed their grass formula around 2001, and it now plays much slower than it did when Edberg and Becker were winning it. And it's not just Wimbledon. The Australian Open changed their surface in 2008 and the US Open adjusted the amount of sand in the paint around 2002. The new surfaces are slower and the result has been that with the exception of Roland Garros, all championship level tennis is now played on courts that react similarly, whether they're on hard courts or grass. It's one reason three (admittedly, historically great) players have been so insanely dominant over the past fifteen years - the four majors used to require four very different skill sets. They don't any more.

80 pitches on .364.

Yeah, but if that represents 4 for 11....

I was mostly kidding, although the AL in the 1970s really did have some pretty awesome defenders at 3b, with Brooks, Graig, Aurelio Rodriguez, and Buddy Bell.

really hoping for Bo & Vladdy in particular to have big playoffs.

Vlad a little overeager.

Ahhh, I miss the pitch tracker. I find I can't tell if it's a ball or strike most of the time.

I've been enjoying listening to the Rays' radio announcers (I've been a MLB Gameday Audio subscriber for years).  Very knowledgeable about the Jays (and the Rays of course).  They were ducking a foul ball in the 1st inning, so apparently they are actually there (unlike the announcers for the 2 Sportsnet broadcasts I can access).  I think I spotted the TBS announcers there too (in the booth below where the foul ball hit).

Never mind, I cleaned my glasses and now I see there the 4 corners of the strike zone shown.

Shoemaker is a gamer. The challenge will be deciding when to pull him.

It does seem much fainter than usual.

Dusty gets four shutout innings from Valdez in relief of Greinke, and Altuve walks with the bases loaded to put them up 2-1 in the top of tghe ninth.

Houston with the tandem starters looks to be on the way to a Game 1 win.

This is as good as it gets for seeing the pitches -- they're using a straightaway center-field camera.  Great look at the in/out break of the pitches.

Not a fan of bringing in Ray here

Yeah - would have kept Shoe in for one more..

Does seem odd given how few batters he faced.

This is a roll of the dice.

Put me down for keeping Shoemaker in given the low pitch count and effective pitching. I'd at least let him pitch until there are a couple of hits or looking bad. I started typing this before the triple, but didn't finish it until just after.

Pulling Shoemaker seemed premature to me, too. He hadn't gone through the lineup twice; he was pitching well and his pitch count wasn't elevated.

Trying to turn the batters around and/or better matchups for later, I guess?

Shoemaker was pitching very well and only threw 35 pitches. He hadn't gone through the order the 2nd time either. If the plan before the game was for him to go 3 innings, then surely they could have pivoted given the circumstances? He was breezing through the game with the only hits allowed being flukes. Unless he's hurt again, this was a puzzling decision by the Jays. Ray is also having his worst season ever, with walks being the main issue, so this is a huge gamble in (what was) a scoreless game.

Well I'm baffled by the early pull as well.

Ryu is the only one I'm comfortable seeing the order a 2nd time so I'm not upset about this decision.

Are the Jays saving Shoemaker as a three inning starter in Game 3?

and I find villar being in the lineup a more egregious decision tbh.

Shapkins invented baseball. They're the smartest people in the room.

Ray was just eight pitches away from matching Shoemaker in the fourth.

I’m very confused by pulling Shoemaker so early also (and judging by his reaction in the dugout it seems like he was too).

That being said, none of this means anything if they can’t solve Snell.

Well Shoemaker was very dominate. But Ray's been pretty decent overall. The first batter had a couple of pitches that didn't look great, and he seems a little wilder than Shoemaker, but several good pitches too.

I find villar being in the lineup a more egregious decision tbh.

Don't like him much myself, but the alternatives, I suppose, would be Panik or Shaw. Asking them to try to hit Snell seems a little unfair.

at least panik would make him work a bit out there

I don't know that I would say Shoemaker was dominate. I could be talked into agreeing that he was dominant, though.

O Captain! My Captain!

2 really good at bats for Jansen and Biggio there all for nought....except it got Snell out of the game.



now would be a nice time for the middle of the order to come through.

Bwa ha ha Rays pitching a one hitter in game 1 and falling right into our trap!

Low-scoring game, late innings, the Jays down a run at the Trop. It’s a bit like watching Groundhog Day.

1 run game heading into the late short-reliever innings with both SP done. We all would have taken that heading into the game. Every chance to pull this one out.

Pity about the ill-timed passed ball as otherwise Ray looked pretty good. Still, down only 1 run in the 6th is better than I expected

We all would have taken that heading into the game.

Espn had the Rays at 73.8 at the top of the game and it's precisely there right now.

MVP belly right there. might be a game winning belly.

I questioned the Ray move, but admittedly it worked well. Villar might work best as a pinch runner. Hopefully they can get something going off Castillo.

Hell of an AB there from Gurriel.

fantastic at bat for gurriel. guy is a much scrappier hitter than I ever imagined he'd be.

Might be a good PA for Teoscar to go after the first strike.

is rowdy actually available do you think?

starting to feel like playoffs now.

I want Kirk to get a PA in this inning.

Well, Cash has already brought in his two best relievers and he's still got six outs to go.

their defensive positioning has been aces today.

their defensive positioning has been aces today.

I was thinking that as well. A couple of shots up the middle I thought would zip through, not to mention Jansen’s drive in his first at bat. We need some luck.

Time for the mop-up crew?

And that was not it.

The team really could use a better lefty bat on the bench, Tellez must really not be healthy right now.

might be valid to 2nd guess keeping Cole in there after that long walk. or maybe even bringing him in ij the first place.


who were our 3 best short relievers on paper coming into this series do you think?

wait so rowdy was available?

so does Bo know clutch?

so does Bo know clutch?

They really can’t catch a break.

defensive positioning.

Ayup. This is a game at the Trop.

Vladdy-Gurriel-Teoscar against a depth RP in the 9th.



no excuse not to make something happen.

who were our 3 best short relievers on paper coming into this series do you think?

In my mind, Dolis clearly. Then Borucki. Then Cole by a hair over Bass. I don't really regard Hatch as a short reliever.

yeah, Cole and Bass pretty close. can't be too upset at bringing him in and leaving him out there against the bottom of the order. just didn't get it done.

defensive positioning.

That's twice, with runners in scoring position both times. Cursed analytics!

6th inning onwards the Jays had great at bats. Some bad luck and some excellent defense.

The chatter right now is about positioning but the two Adames plays only about five ML shortstops make, especially the Grichuk liner.

come on teoscar make holding Ryu for game 2 turn out genius.

LOVE that green light!

100 mph is a "depth RP"? I'll take 3 or 4 of those..

Hard loss, Tampa is a good team. I really would have used Tellez over Panik.

hey we got Pearson as a depth RP too.

too bad about this one. they never really expected to win this one, though, so can't be too upset.

I really would have used Tellez over Panik.

Hitting for Villar in the 7th? With Shaw to 3rd and Biggio to 2nd?

Beaten by a guy who had one home run all year. Ah well. Gotta score to win.

And the difference is a Margot home run. Sigh.

Charlie's strategy worked. It was close.

Hopefully they score some runs for Ryu tomorrow.

Tellez was only going to get 1AB as a pinch hitter in a tight game, use him when you need to get runs and bring in defensive replacements after.

I will admit their call on Shoemaker/Ray worked out better than anybody could have asked for.

Charlie just said the original plan was Shoemaker for two innings, maybe once through the order, and then Ray. They went an extra inning with him because he was so sharp.

Botb Margot and Biggio smoked balls, Margot's was about ten feet higher.

At least we still have our ace for game 2. Maybe the Jays will score 2 tomorrow. If they can't then no strategy would've mattered unless the Jays could've brought back Roger Clemens & Roy Halladay in their primes.

Jays looked a bit anxious/overly aggressive at the plate, though facing Snell, it’s not surprising. The Rays did pitch very well tonight. Tomorrow is a new day.

Not sure it was Charlie's strategy as much as the analytic department strategy, similar to the Dusty Baker move with Greinke. I'm guessing most managerial hires now come with the expectation there will be little freelancing; teams have analytic departments for a reason. Managers prime duty is controlling the clubhouse.

To recap postgame. Montoyo said Shoemaker wasn't mad about coming out, he knew the plan. In fact, Montoyo said Jays let him throw one more inning than planned. Minutes later, Shoemaker says he was surprised, wanted to stay in, figured he'd go 4-5 innings. Alrighty then. #BlueJays

— Gregor Chisholm (@GregorChisholm) September 30, 2020

For all his other likely skills, I think Montoyo is a downright poor in game manager, but I don’t think today is an example of that. All the moves he made generally didn’t work out today but most were defensible - #MMQing.

the pre-game decisions are the ones that bugged me - Ryu out and Villar in.

but tbh I don’t put those on Charlie anyways.

Villar did as bad as expected - 0-2 with a K and hitting into a double play (on the first pitch after a walk). As I said pre-game he should be firmly on the bench except to pinch run, and that only after Davis is used. Espinal I'd have rather had start at 2B as he is better on defense and sometimes does good with the bat. I was happy with Villar being traded for at the time, but geez has he been annoying - a 36 OPS+ is ugly, 7-0 SB-CS was nice, his defense wasn't (4 errors, 2 at SS, 2 at 2B). Guess we know where a 40 man slot will be freed up in the winter.

Kirk was good - got his mandatory hit.
Tellez getting a hit was good to have happen
Gurriel still hot.
Cole didn't have it - made me think of the old rule that if you keep changing pitchers you'll find the guy who doesn't have it that day eventually.

Wanted to see Shoemaker last another inning or two. If a guy is on you don't pull him until you need to in playoffs. The good thing is he should be available if a game 3 is needed and goes into extras (oh would that be fun).

Guess we know where a 40 man slot will be freed up in the winter.

I think Villar's a free agent, so... see ya.

Weird tidbit. Shoemaker was just the third man to start Game One of a post-season series after winning 0 games during the regular season.

One of the others was Liam Hendriks, who Oakland used as an Opener in 2108.

The other was Yovani Gallardo, who started Game 1 for Milwaukee against the Phillies in 2008. He'd pitched well but gone 0-0 in 4 starts, having missed most of the season with a knee injury. He returned in time to make one start in the final week, and the Brewers didn't sew up the Wild Card until they won on the final day behind Sabathia. (Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Ben Sheets were their other starters: Sabathia, Bush, and Suppan followed Gallardo against the Phils.)

Sheets was Milwaukee's ace that season, at least until Sabathia arrived. But he blew out his elbow in Game 161 and that was basically the end of his career. He had TJ surgery, but never pitched effectively again, and was done by age 33.

If there was one miscalculation, it was probably not to use everything to win the last regular season game and face Cleveland. They chose to come to the Trop.

Tampa was the only higher seed to win yesterday! I didn't understand the decision to use Panik and not Tellez to PH with 2 men on - Just before Cole gave up that homer, I said aloud to the room "he's paying too much attention to the runner and not enough to the batter" - over the years I've seen that play out too many times. As expected, the Jays bats will determine the Jays fate.

The use of Starting Pitchers is the biggest thing I dislike about baseball these days. That isn't really on Montoyo or even the Jays as it is league-wide.

I already disliked Openers and now it feels like everybody is an Opener, or close to it.

I want my Starting Pitchers to go at least six. Seven if they can. Eight of they can. Etc.

Now they go three.

Roy Halladay was my favourite player. I can't imagine that happening again.

Anyone doing a live chat, like was done a few times WAY back when?"

Those were fun! I would get nervous about calling Jays talk and people would encourage me... and then charitably say I sounded OK.

Never had the guts to call WWJP, though.

"probably not to use everything to win the last regular season game"

and the first game playoffs game, too.

Well I thought the Shoemaker/Ray strategy worked just fine. Villar starting wasn’t the best plan but he’d had some success against Snell. Plus in a game destined to have few hits, having a guy who can steal bases makes some sense, and, in a sense, ended up being the difference for the Rays. So I don’t think using Villar was that bad a call.

Not pinch hitting with Tellez with two guys on though was strange. But at the end of the day, the guys on the field have to produce, and hopefully today the jitters are behind them.

Speaking of guys not producing , how about Bieber getting pounded by the “slumping” Yankees. So much for a pitching duel. Now matter how good or bad the strategy, it’s up to the guys on the field to do it.

The Rays lineup is up. Lowe and Kiermaier are the only left bats.
Brosseau is at first and leads up.
Arozanena is the DH and hits second.
Margot hits 5th.

The big question for the Jays is Tellez or Kirk at DH against Glasnow.
Tellez is 3 for 9 with 2 homeruns against Glasnow.

Unfortunately, Rowdy is not in the lineup today.  I guess that his health isn't there yet.  Guerrero Jr. is your DH with Biggio at third, Panik at second and Shaw at first.  The lineup is strange in that you have 5 RHBs in a row, and 3 LHBs among 4, making it easier for Cash to work the platoon advantage, if he needs to. 

Neither. It's Vlad at DH, Shaw at 1B, Biggio at 3B, and Panik at 2B. Tellez & Kirk on the bench. Charlie is giving the fans lots to talk about!

yup, Panik starting ahead of Kirk or Tellez in this one, especially with the only upgrade being better defense at 1B (with arguably worse defense at 3B), is another interesting choice.