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Three out of four wins on Sunday thanks to good pitching. Thomas Hatch and TJ Zeuch combined in Buffalo. Kyle Johnston pitched well for New Hampshire but the bullpen wasn't up to the job. Paxton Schultz was excellent for Vancouver and Naswell Paulino pitched well for Dunedin.

We are approx. 30 games into the minor league season. After last years "lost year" there was come concern that players would come back rusty and out of game fitness. There were stories in the press about sloppy play in the first few weeks of the season. Well with thirty games under their belt, the players should be good to go now. We can give players and pitchers mulligans for the first thirty games but now its down to business. Players who want to move up the prospect lists should start to see their numbers improve from here.

I have tried not to be too judgmental on players to this point. I will be watching more closely over the next thirty games.

Syracuse 2 Buffalo 5

Binghamton 9 New Hampshire 6

Eugene 3 Vancouver 7

Bradenton 3 Dunedin 4

This is what I noted from yesterday's games.

Good pitching led the way for the Bisons. Thomas Hatch was back on the mound and threw two innings with just a walk over the minimum. He was followed by R who went the full seven to close out the gamer. It was a typical Zeuch performance, just one K, encouragingly no walks and just 83 pitches over seven innings. There were lots of balls in play, nine on the ground and six in the air.

The Bisons had twelve hits. Tyler White had three, Juan Graterol and Kevin Smith two each. Cavan Biggio homered.

The Fisher Cats bullpen has been terrible this season. I believe they said on the Around the Nest podcast (highly recommended) that the Cats were oh for nine in save opportunities. Sunday added to that. Kyle Johnston pitched a good game and left with a 2-1 lead. But the bullpen coughed up eight runs to take another loss and add another blown save. Johnston went five innings, had eight K's and just conceded the one run.

Austin Martin hit his second home run, one of his two hits. Nick Podkul hit his first home run. Demi Orimoloye also had two hits.

Fourteen hits for the C's, six players had two hits each. Tanner Kirwer had two hits and scored three times. Phil Clarke was another two-hitter, he scored two and drove in two. Cameron Eden joined them and drove in two runs.

Paxton Schultz dominated, nine K's over six innings. He only allowed one run on two hits. Justin Maese struck out five in two innings for his third save.

Four runs on four hits were enough for the D-Jays. Jhon Solarte scored two of the runs, including the winning run in the eighth. Leonardo Jimenez drove in that winning run with a single. Orelvis Martinez had two hits, one a triple, score one and drove in one.

Naswell Paulino started and went five innings. He only gave up one hit but he walked four. The Rays scored three off him but just one was earned.

Three Stars

Third Star - Tanner Kirwer

Second Star - Paxton Schultz

First Star - TJ Zeuch


Starting Pitchers Stand Out | 27 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
John Northey - Sunday, June 06 2021 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#399412) #
Good to see Cavan Biggio playing, and even hitting a HR. Hatch doing well. Very important for the Jays to get guys back. Hoping Urena coming in for Biggio was not due to an injury.
bpoz - Monday, June 07 2021 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#399420) #
I am looking forward to Gerry being judgmental for the next 30 games. At the 60 game mark there should have been promotions. Especially judging the AA/AAA players.
Mike Green - Monday, June 07 2021 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#399422) #
Austin Martin hit .265/.378/.353 with 9 walks and 24 strikeouts in May.  Not terrible, but not what anyone hoped for.  So far in June, he's at .273/.448/.591 with 6 walks and 4 strikeouts.  That's more like it.
bpoz - Monday, June 07 2021 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#399424) #
Thanks M Green. Martin is one to watch.

G Conine hit a lot of Hr but was striking out at 30+%.

C Eden is not really old for A+ (UO convinced me that overaged for the league is a factor) but he cooled off.

I pay a lot of attention to bb/k ratios. Also pitches to strikes thrown.

I believe in Zeuch. He gets outs with low strikeout numbers. Maybe I am wrong in that belief. SRF & Y Diaz are thriving as relievers for NYM. Both can generate strikeouts.
uglyone - Monday, June 07 2021 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#399429) #
I finally decided to take a look at the milb stats since they're all around 100pa or higher now and the one hitter that stood out to me in AAA is SS Kevin Smith.

Firstly, he's still young- at age 24 he's just a year older than what you want from a real AAA prospect, but withblsst year wiped out he never bad a chance to play in AAA at an age appropriate 23.

Secondly, he's only had one bad year in his military career - 2019. He had a solid half season in 2017 rookie ball when he was 20 (104wrc+), then followed it up with a big year in 2018 at 21 - he crushed A (190wrc+) a year older than appropriate and with babip help (.397), but then carried that up to an age appropriate A+ that year and hit very well (127wrc+) and started to look like a legit prospect. Far from perfect - not enough walks and too many Ks, but still a nice overall line for an SS. Then he crashes in AA at age 22 in 2019 - he still showed nice pop for an SS but his contact skills evaporated - K% went through the roof and he barely stayed above the mendoza line. Then of course covid wiped out his age 23 season.

This year though, he's actually having imo the best hitting season of his career. He's at a very good 134wrc+ and hasn't needed any babip luck (.288) to get there. His power has jumped back up into elite territory in the high 200s ISO like in his A-ball breakthrough, a substantial rise over his good but not great ~.200iso at other stops.

Of course his contact skills are still a red flag - hitting only .250 with a K% north of 25%. BUT, what piqued my interest this year is that he's finally doing something he's never really done before - he's walking. He's up over a 13bb% now which is excellent. And it's starting to become a real sample now. The second thing which piqued my interest is that his line drive rate, which has been pretty much bang on 20% at every stop in his career, has suddenly jumped way up to 27%. This is starting to look like a hitter who has made an adjustment in his approach and getting some real tangible improvements out of it, even if he still has major flaws.

What's also encouraging is that he does seem like a legit SS - he's played the vast majority of his innings at every level at SS. More interesting imo is that while he's played a handful of games at 2B, his secondary position has actually been 3B, meaning he likely has a good arm, and which obviously might fit a need on the big club.

And now that I think back on his 2019 failed season, I seem to remember him having a brutal disaster first half before having a great second half to get his numbers back up to semi decent. So maybe an adjustment was made back then.

TL/DR: he's a kid I liked back in 2018 and his line this year is actually the most promising line he's ever put up, and if he sustains it it sure looks like a legit MLB prospect line again at a still legit prospect age....and he's a guy that seems to fit defensively on the big club at their biggest position of need.
uglyone - Monday, June 07 2021 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#399430) #
Whoa sorry for all the typos.
GabrielSyme - Monday, June 07 2021 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#399431) #
June is obviously a small sample, but Martin's dramatic improvement in BB:K ratio is very encouraging. I think we're starting to see what last year's top college hitter can do.

On Zeuch, while he's good at managing contact at the AAA level, he would need to be off-the-charts elite for him to be good at the major-league level with his walk and strikeout rates. It just isn't there, and I would be surprised at this point if he ever provides any value in the majors.
hypobole - Monday, June 07 2021 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#399433) #
Thinking about the Aaron Sanchez for Derek Fisher trade.

For the main players, it was lose/lose. Looked great early on for Houston, with the no-hitter, but Sanchez only ended up with 4 games. FG Game Scores 80, 63, 17, 30. By bWAR, that's 0.1. Biagini was awful there -0.4 bWAR both 2019 and 2020. Fisher totalled -0.7 bWAR his time here.

So now it's become the Cal Stevenson for Paxton Schultz trade. Stevenson is 24.7 yrs old in AA. He's doing OK .225/.356/.408. Compared to 2019, still with a strong 16.5 BB%. His K% pretty well doubled to 25.3. But so has his ISO to .183. 118 wRC+.

Paxton Schultz is almost 16 months younger and won't have to be 40 manned till next year. I know nothing really, what he throws, velocity etc. Just his stats, but they have been great. 14 Jays minors pitchers have 20 IP.

K/9 leaders are a group of 3, Wags 12.66, Logue 12.51, Shultz 12.46. No one else better than 9.30. By K% though, Schultz is the highest at 37.1%

Best BB/9 is Overton's 1.33. Then a group of 4 ranging from Logue's 1.99 to Schultz' 2.08. Wags next at 2.53.

His 2.08 ERA is 3rd. Both his 1.71 FIP and 2.74 xFIP are the best.

hypobole - Monday, June 07 2021 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#399435) #
Nice post uo. I think it was John Lott who covered Kevin Smith's 2019 1st half. He and the Jays decided to try to implement a swing change in an effort to close some holes to keep his his K's in check. Great in theory as guys like Bautista, Urshella, and Turner/Muncy in LA found great success with swing changes. But doesn't work for everyone.

His brain was telling him to do one thing, but "muscle memory" as Smith put it, kept trying to do what it had done in the past and his swing became a complete mess. Then in the 2nd half, he went back to his old swing.
uglyone - Monday, June 07 2021 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#399437) #

Updated BA Top 100 prospects list: 14. Martin, 36. Moreno, 37. Manoah, 38. Pearson, 52. SWR, 56. Groshans, 63. Kirk, 82. Martinez

— Clint (@_ClintB_) June 7, 2021
May -------> June Martin 15 --> 14 Moreno na --> 36 Manoah 93 --> 37 Pearson 16 -> 38 SWR 60 -----> 52 Groshans 27-> 56 Kirk 61 ----> 63 Martinez 83-> 82 Big jumps for Moreno and Manoah well into the top 50 (deservedly), fairly big drop for Pearson from elite prospect to merely very gold prospect. Significant but lesser drop for Groshans. Somewhat surprisingly, Kirk doesn't move up even a little bit despite again showing he can hit well in MLB.
hypobole - Monday, June 07 2021 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#399440) #
Kirk has one huge issue and that's his weight. And one weight related problem is greater chance of injury and a brief career. The injury bug has already hit. Vlad has transformed himself from a blob to a real athlete in 11 months. Kirk much less so.

Posted something here a while back. The nutritionists have tried, but he eats what he wants. He hates broccoli (and probably a lot of other food he should be eating). Their only success is getting him to eat smaller portions.
John Northey - Monday, June 07 2021 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#399455) #
Not bad, 8 guys in the top 100 despite all the recent promotions (Vlad, Bo, Biggio, Tellez in recent years). Next year Manoah, Pearson, and Kirk should all be graduated but that still would leave 5 guys plus anyone who grows into it (plus draft picks). More than 3 puts you at an above average number of prospects in the top 100. I like it.

A quick glance at the Jays stats in the minors - Addison Barger is interesting - 21 in low A (a bit old for that level, but not grossly so) hitting 297/373/560 at 2B/SS/1B/3B (6th round pick in 2018). Samad Taylor we've talked about recently here (22 AA 2B 821 OPS). I'm sure there are others of note that I'm missing.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 07 2021 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#399461) #
The biggest change I see in Smith is his batted ball profile, where it looks like he has leveled out his swing a little bit and perhaps made himself a little bit less susceptible to high heat.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#399475) #
Interesting (to me at least) bit from the chat greenfrog referenced in the other thread. To paraphrase the Q & A:
On a scale of 1-10, and the degree of difficulty in the jump from AAA to the majors is a 10, what about the lower levels?
A to A+ 3
A+ to AA 8
AA to AAA 4
bpoz - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#399476) #
I take it A Rutschman C Orioles is high up on the list. Moved fast into the top 10?
hypobole - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#399477) #
Preseason FG and Pipeline had Rutschman #2 behind Franco. Guessing he was already up there on BA as well.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#399482) #
Did a quick check through minor league transactions (Nick Frasso to the IL after only 3 games 5 IP) and noticed Riley Pint just retired. He's the kid who went 4th overall in 2016, the same year we drafted Zeuch and Bo, drawing a Verlander comp from BA.

Getting nothing out of 4th overall seems terrible for the Rockies, but when I checked Bbref, 4th overall has had a lot of misses. Most do make the majors, just don't accomplish much.

There was a 20 year span starting with Matlack to the Mets in 1967 with a bunch of hits, with 5 players exceeding Matlack's 39.4 bWAR. 2 HOFers - Dave Winfield and Barry Larkin, Kevin Brown, plus Thurman Munson and Darrell Porter.

But since Kevin Brown (67.8 bWAR) in 1986, Ryan Zimmerman in 2005 is the only 4th overall pick to even reach 30 bWAR.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#399483) #
Jordan Groshans came out of the game Sunday. He is not in the lineup today.

Will Springer show up in Buffalo tonight?
Gerry - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#399485) #
Adrian Hernandez is a 21 year old reliever out of Mexico. After racking up 37 strikeouts in 18 innings in Dunedin, he has been promoted to Vancouver.

His ERA is 4.50 thanks to 13 hits and 15 walks.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#399493) #
Forrest Wall has gone on the IL with an oblique injury.

The Jays/Bisons have signed OF Jared Hoying, a minor league outfielder.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#399497) #
Samad cranks his 7 HR. Sole possession of Jays minor league lead.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#399501) #
Taylorís K rate needs to come down by a third to become a real
prospect again.

I didnít like the Trent Palmer pick because his lack of control, and it is showing again tonight.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#399502) #
Taylor's K rate is coming down. Wouldn't draw too many conclusions about a 22 yr olds 1st month in AA. K rate is now 20% in June.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#399503) #
Another blown save by the New Hampshire bullpen tonight.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#399507) #
Zack Britton's 4th rehab start tonight. Only got 1 out before he was pulled, giving up 4 runs to the Bisons.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#399508) #
Taylor didn't strike out tonight but he did have two hits and walked three times.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 08 2021 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#399509) #
Good night for Kevin Smith so far: 2/2 with a HR (7), OPS now .937.

Coupla hits apiece for Martin and Moreno as well.
Starting Pitchers Stand Out | 27 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.