Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Yes, we just saw these guys.

The Orioles lost two of three to the Jays last weekend, despite Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, and Trey Mancini combining to hit no less than nine homers in the three games. Since the Jays left town, the Houston Astros strolled into Camden Yards and commenced to hang just an awful beating all over the unfortunate Orioles. Avert your eyes, if ye be soft-hearted, because this was simply gruesome. The Orioles were outscored 26-3 in the three games, and have now lost 13 of their last 14 games.

So as we head into the last days of June, who's been hot this month anyway? Vlad, of course, is always hot, like a personality crisis.  But who else?

                         G   PA   AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO   BAVG    OBP     SLUG    OPS
Vladimir Guerrero 20 85 73 15 28 3 1 7 18 1 1 12 19 .384 .471 .740 1.210
Cavan Biggio     12   46   38   6  12   3   0   3   4   0   0   8   8   .316   .435  .632   1.066 
Santiago Espinal 12 29 24 5 10 1 0 0 0 1 1 5 3 .417 .517 .458 .976
Reese McGuire     15   44   42   6  14   6   0   1   4   0   0   2  10   .333   .364  .548   .911 
Bo Bichette 20 90 84 18 27 2 1 3 16 5 0 5 15 .321 .367 .476 .843 
For someone who was supposed to be a defence first catcher, all Reese McGuire has done in the majors is hit. (With the exception of that 3-41 that represents his work in the pandemic year of 2020, of course.) The sample sizes are exceedingly minute, but in 2018 he hit .290/.333/.581; in 2019 he hit .299/.346/.526; and this year he's up to .300/.347/.443.

You could say he's holding his own

Well, there be matchups....

Thu 24 June - Kremer (0-6, 6.20) vs Kay (0-2, 6.43)
Fri 25 June - Harvey (3-9, 7.80) vs  Manoah (1-0, 4.18)
Sat 26 June - Akin ((0-3, 6.42) vs  Ryu (6-4, 3.25)
Sun 27 June - Lopez (2-9, 5.68) vs Stripling (2-4, 4.33)
Orioles at Blue Jays, June 24-27 | 266 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#400806) #
So far so good, Slippery Pete. The pitchers are being checked. Have any catchers been checked? (Does John Schneider coach the catchers? We need his bag of tricks!)

I imagine Charlie addressed the pitching staff the same way Paul Sorvino warns Ray Liotta: "Just stay away from the garbage, you know what I mean."

scottt - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#400807) #
The Astros weren't fooled by Eshelman. He lasted 4 innings and gave up 6 runs.
So after that, it was just mop up duty time for Jannis, a 33 year old who gave up 7 runs in 3.1 innings for his MLB debut. What that means is a full bullpen for Baltimore tonight.

Besides the matchups, the Jays will have to use the rest of the bullpen today.
Thornton, probably. Saucedo could take care of the bottom of the lineup, again.
Payamps has been solid. Castro also, most of the time.
Barnes has 2 saves this year with the Mets.
He throws over the top but never developed a good curve.
He throws a 4-seamer around 95mph and a slider.
He started to mix in a changeup, but it has the exact same velocity as the slider. 

hypobole - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#400810) #
Public stats capture player values pretty well. Organisations value catchers much differently than even the most advanced public stats, however. Jeff Mathis career is the most obvious testament to that.

That said, McGuire sure looks like he should definitely be the one to stay when everyone is healthy.

Forget who posted it last series, but the O's mash LHP. 114 wRC+ is 3rd best in baseball. On the other hand their 82 wRC+ vs RHP is 27th and the worst in the AL.

Also noticed the Astros are best in baseball vs RHP, best in baseball vs LHP. Thank goodness we won't face them again until the playoffs. :)

Oddly, for all the talk of the Jays having too many right hand bats, we hit RHP (110 wRC+, 4th best in MLB) better than LHP (106 wRC+, 9th best). I'll let someone else take it down to individuals if they want.

Magpie - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#400811) #
[the Jays] hit RHP (110 wRC+, 4th best in MLB) better than LHP (106 wRC+, 9th best)

I think the biggest factor is that Guerrero has been okay against LHP but is absolutely destroying RHP. Yes, I have scraped together the splits!

First, against the sinister fellows:
Hernandez	vs LHP	24	50	46	10	17	6	0	4	14	1	1	3	10	0.370	0.400	0.761	1.161
Bichette	vs LHP	31	69	62	11	21	3	0	4	14	1	0	7	16	0.339	0.406	0.581	0.986
Grichuk	        vs LHP	36	68	67	12	20	6	0	4	11	0	0	1	11	0.299	0.309	0.567	0.876
Guerrero	vs LHP	34	70	51	12	13	0	0	2	6	1	0	19	9	0.255	0.457	0.373	0.830
Semien	        vs LHP	40	83	77	13	22	3	0	4	14	1	0	6	19	0.286	0.337	0.481	0.818
Tellez	        vs LHP	21	25	22	3	6	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	6	0.273	0.360	0.409	0.769
Gurriel	        vs LHP	45	75	73	7	19	4	0	3	10	0	0	0	22	0.260	0.253	0.438	0.692
Espinal	        vs LHP	28	51	49	5	15	1	0	0	2	1	0	2	5	0.306	0.333	0.327	0.660
Davis	        vs LHP	19	34	26	4	4	1	0	1	2	1	0	5	8	0.154	0.324	0.308	0.631
Biggio	        vs LHP	32	48	42	2	10	3	0	0	3	1	0	5	16	0.238	0.319	0.310	0.629
Panik	        vs LHP	11	19	14	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	3	0.143	0.368	0.214	0.583
McGuire	        vs LHP	8	9	9	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0.111	0.111	0.222	0.333
Jansen	        vs LHP	27	41	36	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	11	0.056	0.171	0.056	0.226
And against the normal people:
Guerrero	vs RHP	71	238	208	43	75	13	1	21	54	1	1	25	42	0.361	0.437	0.736	1.173
Semien	        vs RHP	71	242	215	38	59	11	1	14	28	8	1	24	60	0.274	0.347	0.530	0.877
McGuire	        vs RHP	26	67	61	9	20	6	0	1	5	0	0	4	12	0.328	0.379	0.475	0.854
Biggio	        vs RHP	47	149	123	18	28	3	1	6	12	1	1	23	39	0.228	0.351	0.415	0.766
Bichette	vs RHP	72	251	235	50	62	11	1	10	34	11	0	12	58	0.264	0.307	0.447	0.754
Hernandez	vs RHP	51	177	165	16	46	4	0	6	29	3	1	12	49	0.279	0.328	0.412	0.740
Espinal	        vs RHP	21	47	41	7	10	4	1	0	4	1	1	6	11	0.244	0.340	0.390	0.731
Grichuk	        vs RHP	68	221	209	18	53	9	0	9	36	0	2	10	53	0.254	0.290	0.426	0.715
Panik	        vs RHP	38	97	94	6	26	5	0	2	11	0	0	2	11	0.277	0.289	0.394	0.682
Jansen	        vs RHP	31	81	72	9	15	4	0	3	7	0	0	8	20	0.208	0.288	0.389	0.676
Gurriel	        vs RHP	60	181	170	18	43	10	0	4	14	1	1	7	32	0.253	0.283	0.382	0.666
Tellez	        vs RHP	48	126	117	9	23	4	1	3	7	0	0	8	27	0.197	0.254	0.325	0.579
Davis	        vs RHP	20	49	42	11	6	0	0	0	2	3	1	6	13	0.143	0.265	0.143	0.408
Vlad's enormous reverse split seems the most unusual thing to me..
Nigel - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#400812) #
Agreed that its mostly Vladdy related. One other note, Biggio has, to date, hit LHP at least as well as he's hit RHP. I think Biggio's numbers are likely to pick up against LHP as we go along, as this year's sample size for him is small.
John Northey - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#400813) #
Magpie - those stats sure don't say the Jays need more LH bats does it?  Seems our RH bats just need to start hitting LHP more.  Jansen might end up odd guy out when Kirk and Jansen return given these stats.  Why on earth would you use Jansen if you have Kirk (a far better hitter) and McGuire who has been hitting well (vs RHP: 328/379/475 - 854, in 2021, and 299/342/500 - 842 for his career including 2020's disaster) and is known for his defense?  Kirk's OPS vs RHP is 1.038, vs LHP 573 lifetime but that is just 71 PA total so I'd expect that to move in a normal direction if he is given more PA in the majors.  Might all be moot soon enough if Moreno keeps hitting like he has been (385/450/672 in AA over 140 PA) unless he moves to 3B.  Imagine if Moreno can hit anywhere near that in the majors at 3B with Vlad & Bo in the infield and Semien or Biggio at 2B?  That would be a scary offensive infield, easily the best in Jays history.  McGuire/Kirk mix and match behind the plate, Springer/Hernandez/Gurriel/Grichuk OF and your backups can easily be Davis & Espinal as their bats would be irrelevant, defense is all you'd need from them.  Moreno could be a 3rd catcher if needed whenever you DH Kirk.  I'd hope Jansen could get a half decent reliever in a trade (someone has to be desperate for catching help) and you'd have a killer team for late 2021/2022 and beyond.
scottt - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#400814) #
Might have something to do with lefties not throwing as hard and the Jays not doing that well against soft tossers.
A lot of lefty starters have reverse splits otherwise they wouldn't be starting.
Finally, umpires are really bad at calling the outside corner because they stand inside.
Lefties generally don't pound the plate outside to right handed batters, except with changeups and the like and so you're less vulnerable to the 5 inches outside strike three call.

I'm good with a hitting McGuire because, as I said, there's not much room to put a left bat. 

Magpie - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#400815) #
Vlad's splits against LH are actually rather funny. It looks like their knees are knocking with terror. "If I don't hit the corner with a nasty breaking ball, my very life is in danger." His OBP is actually higher against them with all the walks.
Magpie - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#400816) #
Hernandez, Bichette, Grichuk, Espinal all have pretty normal splits - Teoscar and Bo have pretty big ones, but they're hitting RHP just fine. Semien and Gurriel don't have much of a split at all. It's Vlad and Rowdy with the big reverse splits. Jansen too, I guess - his numbers against LHP are really disturbing. I think Rowdy's just being mysterious, and the LHP are all so afraid of Vlad they'd rather walk him than give him anything to swing at.
Magpie - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#400817) #
Also weird - the team has two hitters on pace to strike out more than 150 times and neither one of them is named Randal Grichuk.
Hodgie - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#400819) #
Vlad's splits against LH are actually rather funny. It looks like their knees are knocking with terror.

The numbers seem to bare this out - against LHP Vladdy is only seeing 40.7% of pitches in the zone. Something, something, discretion is the better part of valor - the southpaw motto.

Alex Obal - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#400820) #
It seems to me Guerrero has mostly been trying to go the other way with RH fastballs and succeeding. Which also means any hanging sliders fall perfectly into the bat path and get crushed. Heads he wins, tails you lose. The lefties are more inclined to pitch him inside with fastballs and cutters and a bit less likely to miss over the plate middle-in with their changeups, so for now they're taking less damage.

I don't actually know what's happening inside his head of course, but if you play with his Statcast page a lot of what you see is consistent with this.
scottt - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#400822) #
It's mostly Tellez and Panik, not doing what they're expected to do with OPS of 0.579 and 0.682.
hypobole - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#400823) #
What's "it's"
pooks137 - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#400826) #
Nice to see Biggio returning to his pre-2021 self with an 8/8 W/K ratio and a much decreased K rate since his return.

A return to career norms Biggio and a returning Springer make this lineup a longer.

I'm not a Reese McGuire believer, so it's really only the catcher position and whomever is starting in LF between Grichuk and Gurriel Jr that remain as holes in the batting order (and I guess whomever is hitting at DH with Tellez dispatched).
92-93 - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#400827) #
Panik's OPS is the highest it has been since 2017. If he isn't doing what's expected, someone needs to recalibrate.
Spifficus - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#400828) #
I think that was a reference to vs RHP, though your point still largely holds - 2018 saw his OPS .024 higher vs RHP which is not nothing, but not out of line, either. Panik isn't there to mash righties.
hypobole - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#400829) #
Jays have had a few embarrassments this season. Don't need any more, but at least for a while.

Last road game the Orioles won was May 5 in Seattle. They have played 19 on the road since then. The Diamondbacks have shown it is very doable to lose 23 in a row on the road this year. If they can do it, let's make sure the O's can do it too. Right boys?
hypobole - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#400830) #
From Arash Madani twitter:

"Mark Shapiro says Nate Pearson is headed for a *fourth* medical opinion on his injured groin."

Getting a Devon Travis vibe.

hypobole - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#400831) #
Just to clarify the Devon Travis reference,

Devon had weird medical issues. The shoulder injury that wouldn't heal until they did surgery and discovered he didn't have a normal shoulder.

The knee pain that wouldn't go away. MRI came back clean, then a second, third and fourth. Finally did a scope and discovered the problem. Did surgery. And the pain came back. Had to do another surgery and back off rehab to finally get his knee pain-free.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#400832) #
There should be room to carry all three of Jansen, McGuire and Kirk if we get all three healthy at the same time. We've had a bunch of 8/9/10th guys in the bullpen who have barely seen playing time. Kirk is either hitting - in which case he can also be useful as a PH and occasional DH; or he's not, in which case he can stay in AAA.

It's hard to see Jansen transitioning to a backup role after being the starter for the last few years - I think he'll be traded at some point.
Magpie - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#400833) #
I'm still gobsmacked by the hitter's strikeout numbers. I knew it was happening, but sometimes you stumble across a data factoid that really brings something home. In my case, it was the discovery that the Blue Jays have four hitters that strike out more frequently than Randal Grichuk. This initially made me think I'd stumbled into some weird parallel universe.

The game has freaking changed. One of those four Jays, Bo Bichette, is on pace to whiff 166 times this season. Reggie Jackson, who only struck out more times than anyone in the history of baseball, surpassed that figure exactly once in his long career. But Bichette himself actually strikes out less often than the average AL hitter. Reggie himself struck out in just 22.7% of his plate appearances, less than Bichette (23.1) and less than the average AL hitter in 2021.
scottt - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#400834) #
Vlad at DH so Panik can play 1B and Springer sits?

jamesq - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#400835) #
If only we were playing real home games. The recent "home"series against the Yankees was excruciating as their were way more Yankee fans (as expected) than jay fans. Open the borders.
Kasi - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#400836) #
Not surprised they gave Springer the day off. He's not going to be playing everyday right away. Guessing the choice was Espinal at 3b and Biggio at 1b or Biggio at 3b and Panik at 1b.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#400837) #
Kremer’s stuff isn’t quite as Krispy as he would like.
hypobole - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#400838) #
Think we may have a chance to win this, even with Kay starting.
Nigel - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#400839) #
Kay was working very had to make that a premature call.
Magpie - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#400840) #
Some team hitting records may come under assault this season. Coming into tonight's game, Vlad was on pace for 52 HRs (Bautista 54, 2010), 135 RBI (Delgado 145, 2003); he's also slugging .664 (Delgado .664, 2000). Bichette is on track to score 137 runs (Green 134, 1999). Oh, and Semien could strike out 177 times (Bautista 170, 2017).
John Northey - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#400841) #
For K's I can't believe Anthony Kay now has the Jays record for most outs at the start of a game by the K - first 7 outs were all K's. Go figure. A team that has had Roger Clemens in his prime (his 2 best seasons arguably) and multiple Cy Young winner (Halladay, Hentgen, Stieb who should've had multiple, Key who could've won) yet Kay has the most outs by a K to start a game. Weird.
uglyone - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#400842) #
This is how you treat bad teams.
Kasi - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#400843) #
Reese doing his best to make Jansen expendable.
hypobole - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#400844) #
Nice piece of hitting by Mullins in the top of the 5th taking a down and away pitch and punching it into LF. Then Reese in the bottom of the inning did exactly the same thing.

Suddenly had the answer to Magpie's question the other day.

Cedric Mullins looks like Reese McGuire.
uglyone - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#400845) #
scottt - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#400847) #
Nice work from the pen there.
I would have liked to get deeper into the O's pen, but eh.

uglyone - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#400848) #
5.5 back.

Keep it rolling.
hypobole - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#400849) #
Arden Zwelling:

Ryan Borucki (forearm) is scheduled to throw a bullpen on Friday, per Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo.

“We’ll see how he does. You know how that goes. If he throws a good bullpen, then we’ll go from there.”
hypobole - Thursday, June 24 2021 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#400851) #
Zwelling again:

Steven Matz has cleared COVID-19 protocol and rejoined Blue Jays. He threw 60 pitches of live batting practice at Sahlen Field in Buffalo today.

No exact date yet, but Matz is expected to make his next start for Blue Jays. Likely during next week’s series vs. Mariners.
scottt - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 05:34 AM EDT (#400852) #
They could plan to have Manoah drop his appeal so that Matz can replace him and Kay stay in the rotation.
Otherwise, he'll have to serve it as soon as they get in New York to play the Yankees.

Wouldn't want Kay against the Rays.

hypobole - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 08:17 AM EDT (#400853) #
Never heard of any team doing that, scottt, and for good reason. Suspensions are often reduced, meaning the player loses less pay. And trying to convince a player to drop an appeal because a teammate is not good?
Cracka - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#400857) #
You are certainly correct about suspensions for hitting batters often being reduced. I found 7 incidents over the last two seasons and 6 of them were reduced on appeal. Interestingly, no recent pitcher has received an original suspension of 5 games. Garrett and Kelly had theirs reduced to 5 games, and their conduct was much more egregious than Manoah's. So it does seem very likely that he'll receive a reduction and perhaps not miss a turn in the rotation.

May 2021: Amir Garrett (7 to 5)
May 2021: Jose Alvarado (3 to 2)
May 2021: Tyler Duffey (3, appealed & dropped?)
April 2021: Ryan Tepera (3 to 2)
Offseason 2020: Aroldis Chapman (3 to 2)
August 2020: Ian Gibaut (3 to 2)
July 2020: Joe Kelly (8 to 5)
dalimon5 - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#400859) #
3 months into the season and here is what we’ve learned and need to ask:

Offense is awesome

Rotation is good but can be better

Bullpen needs one or two big time dependable arms

Shapiro and Atkins biggest hole is non durable bullpen pitchers

Danny Jansen doesn’t have the offense he showed in the minors which immediately makes him no better than McGuire (or the other 3 guys).

Rowdy Tellez won’t get a chance to figure it out in Toronto.

Nate Pearson has been exposed: 25 year old Uber prospect with 6 year track record averaging 37ip a year.

Question for Beauxites: do Pearson, Jansen or Tellez have any/enough currency at this point to get you a trade target like German Marquez or will they be resigned to “fix up in minors or eventually fade away,” roles while management needs to trade top prospects like Martin, Groshans, Martinez, Moreno IF they want a top controllable pitcher in return?

My dig: Jansen, Tellez and Pearson don’t have enough currency, even when combined, for a top controllable starting pitcher. Jays missed the market in the summer when Darvish was had for a decent haul only. Jays have enough internally for bullpen help so I wouldn’t trade for BP help, easier to find in the off season. I would trade anybody but Martin, Groshans, Martinez, and Moreno. SWR might end up being the best of the bunch so he’s also untouchable for me. That leaves Kirk and a bunch of good younger prospects to use for trade like Kloff and Van Eyk. That will give you currency. If necessary if include Gurriel.

Anyone want to make a list of realistic controllable starting pitcher options? I’ve got Marquez only so far on the list.
greenfrog - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#400861) #
I would be very reluctant to trade Samad Taylor. The organization doesn't have enough data to indicate whether his June surge (.386/.480/.807 with 7 SB and a significant improvement in BB rate and decline in K rate) is temporary or reflects a quantum leap forward for him.

The comparison may not be quite right, but it reminds me of when Bautista started crushing the ball in September 2009. At the time people weren't sure whether it was a breakout or just a late-season blip.
greenfrog - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#400863) #
The offense is good but I wouldn't be complacent on that front. I mentioned Starling Marte the other day. If they were able to get a rental player of that calibre for a reasonable cost in prospects, I would go for it.

There are multiple ways to improve team run differential. Adding a pitcher is one way to do it. Upgrading a relatively weak position with a quality two-way player is another way.
bpoz - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#400865) #
The Jays were willing to spend money the last 2 off seasons. They were successful. They may have been interested in trading for Darvish or maybe not. I don't know.

This off season they may trade for improvements. A good FA SP is possible but very long term contracts may not be considered. 4 years max, no 5/6. They are losing money on Springer this year and so may be gun shy on long term contracts.
hypobole - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#400866) #
People having a lot of fun, here and in the media, making trades, but there's still over a month to go. What we need or could use now and what we need or could use in a month may be very different. Targets will change as well, both by performance or injury.
92-93 - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#400867) #
The reasonable cost for a talent like Marte is a prospect like Taylor.
Spifficus - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#400868) #
The big thing about Taylor is that his trade value may be too far below his value to the organization if he really has taken a significant step forward. That's why you'd want to see the underlying data like exit velocity and out-of-zone swings and things like that - things that are less noisy than the publicly available stat lines. Hopefully he'll pop up on the fangraphs list soonish and we'll get to see that info.
Petey Baseball - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#400869) #
I am convinced that the Jays will need more starting pitching to get them to the finish line this year. It doesn't look like Pearson will pitch at the big league level this year, and the "depth" they talked about all offseason....let's just say I don't want Anthony Kay or Zeuch pitching an important game in a pennant race.

Danny Duffy is someone who doesn't sound like a sexy target, but could be had for a minimal return. He's a free agent at the end of the season. A career 3.98 ERA.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#400870) #
Kaitlyn McGrath ha a piece in The Athletic with Bowden with potential trades. What do people think? Other than #3 the moves seem like overpays to me.

Trade 1:
Pirates trade: Righty reliever Richard Rodríguez and first baseman Colin Moran

Blue Jays trade: Catcher Alejandro Kirk, left-handed pitcher Nick Allgeyer

Trade 2:
Rockies trade: Right-handed starting pitcher Jon Gray

Blue Jays trade: Infielder Kevin Smith, left-hander Anthony Kay, right-hander Sem Robberse

Trade 3:
Marlins trade: Lefty reliever Ross Detwiler, righty reliever Yimi García

Blue Jays trade: Catcher Riley Adams, right-handed pitcher Joey Murray

Trade 4:
Twins trade: Right-handed starting pitcher José Berríos

Blue Jays trade: Right-handed pitcher Nate Pearson

Trade 5:
Rangers trade: Outfielder Joey Gallo, righty starter Kyle Gibson, righty reliever Ian Kennedy

Blue Jays trade: Infielder Cavan Biggio, outfielder Randal Grichuk, infielder Otto Lopez, right-handed pitcher Adam Kloffenstein, right-hander Elvis Luciano
uglyone - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#400871) #
Yeah I agree - the hitting is crazy good and deep, with hotshots like Moreno and Martin banging on the door. Deadline focus for me would be all pitching. A top end SP would be #1.

That would automatically boost the BP by sending Manoah or Stripling back there. I'd probably want to add one more big time RP too tho.
dalimon5 - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#400872) #
Great responses. Still no list but good trade offers from the article. I’d make trade proposal #1 and #4 in a heart beat. I guess they think “Big Nate,” still has massive currency if it can get them in the conversation for Berrios.

Greenfrog- good point on improving anywhere.

Nigel - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#400873) #
There isn't a chance in the world, none, that the Twins wouldn't hang up the phone immediately on trade proposal #4.
hypobole - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#400874) #
#1-I'd rather the deal be without Moran. I'm probably the lowest here on Kirk, despite having no questions about his hit tool.

#2 I don't like the idea of Smith for a few months of Gray. But I'm higher on Smith than most and probably undervalue Gray.

#3 is meh both ways.

#4 is probably a pretty fair deal. Don't think fans of either team would like it.

#5 I like the best.

Nigel - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#400875) #
I'm sorry but the idea that you could trade for Berrios, a durable 3-4 WAR starter who doesn't become a UFA until 2023, for Pearson, who has been able to pitch a grand total of 150 innings in the last 5 years, is ludicrous. And I like Pearson as a prospect.
John Northey - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#400876) #
At this point I'd be surprised if the Jays get more starting pitching given how all 5 are pitching right now.
  • Ryu: Ace of the staff, 3.25 ERA in 83 IP
  • Ray: #2, almost doing as good as Ryu 3.35 ERA in 80 2/3 IP
  • Matz: Decent #3 4.26 ERA in 69 2/3 IP. Not exciting, but solid
  • Stripling: solid #4/decent #3 with his 4.89 ERA as a starter in 53 1/3 IP. ERA goes down to 4.33 when you add his 7 IP 'relief' game. His 4.33 is a 101 ERA+ so he is league average there.
  • Manoah: 4.18 ERA would make him a solid #3/weak #2, just 23 2/3 IP so far though so still hopeful he goes more good rather than getting rookie jitters.
  • Kay: 4.43 ERA as a starter in 20 1/3 IP but boy are those scary innings (like last night). As a #6 guy he is nice, but wouldn't want to count on him
  • Thornton: barely used as a starter (only 5 1/3 IP) but an emergency option
  • Zeuch: just a 4.91 ERA as a starter, but I don't see it as likely to stay sub 5. 11 IP 12 H 5 BB 5 SO. I guess he is endurable as a #7 or beyond but that is it. 3 starts is about 2 more than I'd like him to have had.
As a rule, your ace should be a 120+ ERA+ guy, #2 a 110, #3 100, #4 90, #5 80. Not perfect, but a reasonable way to quickly eyeball it. Checking the Jay division champion teams (skipping the 2 wild cards), using 10 starts minimum and more starts than relief (thus not showing Sanchez 2015)
  • 2015: David Price 179/Estrada 131/Buehrle 108/Dickey 105/Hutchinson 74 (ugh) note: Stroman 249 in 4 starts, Norris 108 in 5 before being traded as part of the Price package.
  • 1993: Pat Hentgen 112/Guzman 109/Dave Stewart 98/Todd Stottlemyre 90/Morris 70. Note: Al Leiter 106 in a mix of starts/relief - pretty weak starting staff that year, but they got away with it thanks to 3 relievers having 70+ IP with a 140+ ERA+
  • 1992: Guzman 154/Key 115/Morris 101 (but 21 wins)/Stottlemyre 91/Stieb 81 Note: Cone 161 (just 7 starts), David Wells 76 in mostly relief plus 14 starts
  • 1991: Guzman 142/Candiotti 142/Key 139/Wells 114/Stottlemyre 112 Note: Stieb 134 then his arm blew after 9 starts (sigh)
  • 1989: Cerutti 119/Stieb 109/Key 95/Stottlemyre 95/Flanagan 93 Note: no one else had 5 starts
  • 1985: Stieb 171/Key 141/Alexander 123/Clancy 112/Leal 74 Note: Filer took over from Leal and had a 110 in 9 starts, rookie Steve Davis had a 121 in 5 starts/5 relief but never developed.
So the strongest staff was probably the 1991 one - 3 clear aces, 2 very solid guys whose ERA+'s were better than any starter on the 1993 team. Yet 1991 was out in 5, 1993/1992 both won it all, 1985 and 2015 both made it deep into the ALCS. Killer staffs are nice, but it is the whole package that is needed. Offense and pitching.
bpoz - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#400877) #
Many things to consider for making deals this trade deadline.

1) The Jays financial goals and results for 2020, 21 and 22. Probably hoping for a good payday in 2022 if no covid restrictions.

2) Twins are horrible in the 2021 standings. But they are in a contending window. So if Pearson becomes a reliever or pitches little or none in 2022 then it would cost them the expected results of Berrios as a solid starter.

3) Grichuk looks similar to Gallo to me. Gallo walks a lot more but strikes out at 40% compared to Grichuk at a little under 25%. The 2 pitchers from Texas are rentals for this year I presume. I see no reason to sell the farm plus Biggio this year.

I always find the trade deadline interesting.
greenfrog - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#400878) #
I imagine the Jays will be making inquiries about controllable starting pitching, as Ray and Matz may be gone after the season (and Ryu will be a year older).

The Jays could always do what AA did with Encarnacion (if I recall correctly) and try to work out an extension with one or more of Semien, Ray and Matz during the All-Star break.
hypobole - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#400879) #
The exact same Berrios deal was floated by one of the FG guys a couple of weeks ago. That said, it is a huge risk for the Twins. Not just his past history, but the present groin mystery. So maybe you're right.

But Pearson has 6 years of control with multiple options for a year and change of Berrios.
Spifficus - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#400880) #
In the spirit of #4, something like German Marquez and Daniel Bard for a package headlined by Pearson and Kirk with maybe Tellez and an arm (body optional) has crossed my mind a few times. To dalimon5's point a bit though, I wonder if the recurring groin problem has dinged his trade value too much by highlighting his lack of durability in ways that were looked past before.

Gray doesn't interest me for what I think his cost will be, unless it falls closer to the Happ deal. The Gallo deal takes too many useful pieces from the active roster.

I still think long term Biggio is going to become the DH-In-Name-Only and act as a bit of a super-sub at 2B and the corners. That leaves 3B as a potential adding spot; Asdrubal Cabrera was looking interesting before his slump after returning from the IL.

Tellez still has some value to get a reliever or as a secondary piece for a bigger fish, but he definitely seems to be in a post-prospect bid for Second Division Regular or Platoon Bat, so he wouldn't garner much on his own. Jansen is problematic at this point, and I don't know what I'd do. I doubt he'd have much trade value at this point, though.

Rodriguez is interesting - a reliever with command?! What's this world coming to! - though Colome and Soria are ones I'd watch for as potential closer-helpers. If they look like they sorted out their earlier season issues, I'd consider taking a flyer.
John Northey - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#400881) #
No question trades are going to happen. So who is on the 40 man roster that the Jays would trade?

Kirk (tons of bat potential, not horrid behind the plate, limited to CA/DH)
Jansen: Don't see much value for a guy with a 46 OPS+ even as a catcher.
McGuire: only as a throw in, even as hit bat has come to life.
Adams: Has potential, more value than McGuire, maybe more than Jansen due to years of control
Tellez: Only real tool is the bat, limited to 1B/DH, might be used to get a 'meh' reliever
Biggio: biggest tool is versatility, ability to walk. Doubt he would get enough to be worth it
Espinal: great D, not much O, can play anywhere. Could be a 1-1 for a half decent reliever for a team desperate for IF depth
Kay, Zeuch: one at least will be mixed into a trade I figure - for the Jays purely depth, but for a desperate team could be useful.
Pearson: Jays won't deal unless a strong player coming back. Hard to imagine the Jays getting enough value back to be worth the risk of another Thor situation.

Prospects in the minors: anyone past #10 should be available. Everyone will be after Simeon Woods Richardson, Gabriel Moreno, and Austin Martin. The Jays would be nuts to deal any of those 3 unless they are getting someone who is under contract for 3+ years at a good price. Jordan Groshans I could imagine the Jays saying 'screw it' and mixing in for a good enough player (but has to be game changing level), Orelvis Martinez, Miguel Hiraldo, Adam Kloffenstein, and CJ Van Eyk are the rest of the top 10 and are low enough that I could see one of them being mixed in if needed but, again, has to be for a guy who would be a game changer, not just a middle reliever. Nick Allgeyer seems a likely one to be part of a package for some reliever.

Right now the pen is by far the #1 issue. The rotation is decent, not 'wow' but solid (see my earlier comment). A real closer and a solid setup guy are what is needed. Then Romano can shift into setup, and the rest can be shifted down as well. Phelps and Yates were supposed to fill those roles, but now the Jays need to find someone else. Remember, 1985 they won 99 with a horrid pen situation for the first half, then Tom Henke arrived on July 29th getting wins or saves in each of his first 6 games, then 2 nada games, then 4 saves before he blew one, followed by 2 more saves. This from a guy who the Rangers didn't protect from the Free Agency draft (you could protect 25 guys on your 40 man as I recall and the Rangers weren't that good at the time - 99 loss season in '85, 92 in '84).
scottt - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#400883) #
A five day suspension to a pitcher is basically just 1 day. If you reduce to less than 5 days, he does not miss any time.
I don't remember a suspension to a pitcher being reduced to less than 5 days.

Let's see.
Suspension to a starting pitcher?
2021 nothing.
2020 Domingo German 81 games
2019 Pineda 39 games, Urias 20 games, Montas 80 games,  Gausman 5 games, Webb 80 games, Keller 5 games, Archer 5 games.
That's all I can fish out without a subscription to spotrac.

It's very common for players to wait until a convenient time to drop the appeal.
Otherwise he'll get his 5 games the next time the team plays at Yankees stadium, which sucks if they have to call up a AAA pitcher.
It seems MLB suspends whoever causes the benches to empty during the Covid-19 protocols.
Kinda hard to pin this on anyone else, so automatic suspension.

92-93 - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#400884) #
The funny thing is that most people here think it's just as ludicrous to give up Pearson for half a season of Scherzer.

Berrios doesn't cost as much as you think, assuming the Twins are looking to move him. The Jays didn't get that much for 1.5 seasons of Stroman. Two prospects outside all the Top 100s that weren't the better prospects of a bad Mets system.

In general, fans that pay a lot of attention to MiLB grossly overrate the value of non-elite prospects.
scottt - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#400885) #
The Royals almost never trade their free agents and Duffy has announced several times that he wants to be a "Royal for life".
bpoz - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#400887) #
Atkins has not mentioned how he feels about this years results so far. He could say nice things but he may not actually feel that way. He definitely will not "say" bad things. He just put Roark on a list of some kind and then DFA'd him. Never said anything mean about him.

Atkins has not said much about his trade deadline pursuits in general. Maybe mentioned getting a SP. Has not specified how good a SP or if a rental or long term.

I checked a few years final standings. The 5th best team wins the 2nd WC. This year 2021 Boston on pace for 95 wins. 2020 Cleveland 94 prorated. 2019 TB 96. 2018 Cleveland won their division with 91 wins. The 2 WCs were 100 & 97 wins. 2017 Minnesota wins the 2WC with 85 wins. So it looks like 93-95 wins for the 2nd WC. 14 games to go before the AS break. We can then extrapolate how close we are to the 93-95 mark. Of course there are other ways to do an evaluation.

scottt - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#400888) #
Typically, you don't trade from the 40 roster.
They don't need an outfielder and Davis can be outrighted to free a spot.
If they can get a better left bat to replace Panik, then he'd be dropped.
If they get a reliever, they drop the worse reliever on board.
They would not drop or trade a starter. That would be a waste.
The exception is a catcher (because they have 5) and Luciano. I'd certainly include him in a package for a rental, if the other team wants him.

Who should they trade? A catcher for sure or they'll be losing one anyway.
Adams, possibly. Jansen wouldn't have much value.
Things become interesting when Kirk resume hitting.
Kevin Smith and Samad Taylor will need roster protection.
They already have Lopez . Martin and Groshans will be fighting for the same roster spot soon.
So, should trade one of Smith, Taylor, Lopez and have the other 2 compete next spring. 
Saucedo and Allgeyer can't have much value.
Beasley and Barnes were just picked up for change.

They still have 2 or 3 guys who could be tried in relief or possibly lost next year in Harris, Snead and Baker.
Some guys will have to be DFAed when others come off the 60IL.
A catcher for Kirk, Davis, A reliever for Merryweather and Hatch.

Kasi - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#400889) #
Not sure why you would want to trade Pearson now. I guess if you imagine his value will drop even lower. But presuming there is no team that is going to pay for preseason Pearson I don't see a desire to sell low on an asset if you think he will be able to rebound.
scottt - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#400892) #
Fangraphs has Boston/Yankees favorites, Rays third, Blue Jays fourth.
Bref has Rays with the best odds, Boston second, Blue Jays third and Yankees fourth.

Vladdy 4.0 bWar
Semien 3.5
Bichette 2.7
Hernandez 1.3
Espinal 1.0
Grichuk 0.8
McGuire 0.8
Biggio 0.7
Kirk 0.4
Gurriel 0.3
Palacios 0.1
Panik -0.1
Davis -0.2
Jansen -0.3
Tellez -0.6

GabrielSyme - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#400893) #
Absolutely not on trade 1: I'm very wary of pop-up relievers with mediocre xFIPs, Moran doesn't add any value for the Jays, and Kirk is a very good hitting prospect.

Jon Gray is really more depth than a significant upgrade. Pass on Gray.

Berrios is the best fit, and I'd absolutely do that deal.

Trade #5 is the most interesting. Gallo is very good; Gibson is having a great season, but should be projected as more of a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Both are controlled through next season. Kennedy is a solid if unspectacular bullpen rental. Looks like a good upgrade for this year and next.
Spifficus - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#400894) #
For me, it depends how much Pearson's value has dropped. Is he still someone that can front a big deal but just needs a bit of extra sweetener? If so, I'd use him in the right deal. Alternately, if his value has dropped so much he wouldn't be able to front a deal for a controlled top of rotation type, then you may as well hang onto him and work on healthening him up.
scottt - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#400895) #
Baltimore has DFAed Mickey Jannis who took the brunt of the last loss against Houston.
In his place, they've selected Konner Wade, a 29 year old with an ERA of 3.48 in AAA. Looks like a starter/long relief guy.

They've also optioned Dean Kremer and recalled lefty Alexander Wells who is their 17th ranked prospect by pipeline. He's yet to make his debut and has an ERA of 5.63 in AAA.

SK in NJ - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#400896) #
I'm not sure what to make of Pearson's potential trade value. It certainly cannot be as high as it was 12-18 months ago, but if he can still be the centerpiece of a deal for a legitimate difference maker, then the Jays would have to consider it at this point. His BBRef page shows that he has thrown 146 innings since 2018, and 101 of those came in 2019. Even with the 2020 asterisk, that's not good. If his value has dropped to the point where the team cannot land a difference maker for him, then I would agree that keeping him and hoping for the best is the only real solution. Trading Pearson now being considered selling high or low is anyone's guess.
92-93 - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#400897) #
Biggio bats behind Springer and ahead of Grichuk and Gurriel tonight. Good move Charlie. Cavan could be 2nd on the team in OBP before long.
scottt - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#400898) #
Baltimore recalled a lefty? No problem, let's separate the 2 left bats with 2 right bats.
Spifficus - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#400899) #
I like that change in the order, too.
Magpie - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#400901) #
Aaron Nola just struck 10 consecutive Mets to tie Tom Seaver's 1970 record. Alonso broke him off with a double.
dalimon5 - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#400904) #
Jose Berrios
German Marquez

Which other pitchers may be available with control through at least 2022?
Spifficus - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#400905) #
Manoah's stuff seems to have crisp movement tonight for the most part. That maybe-swing slider in the first was particularly impressive.

As for controllable pitchers, there may be a few open up depending on what happens. The Reds could make Gray or Castillo available if they fall off. The Marlins could go weird and move one of their two pitchers coming into arbitration. Boyd or Turnbull are both injured, though they're more mid rotation sorts that would be at the back end of a playoff rotation. Cleveland isn't adverse to the buy-sell combo, and may move someone like Plesac for some now-time offense. If Gurriel could get on a roll... Means could be costly-but-available.
Polite Nate - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#400908) #
Manoah's slider seems like it doesn't get as many whiffs as you'd think, but it does seem to generate a lot of soft contact and foul balls, at least. Just going by my eyeball test anyway.
Kasi - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#400911) #
Looking at that Springer home run (and his reaction to Gurriels one yesterday) he just seems like a very cheerful guy. I think he'll fit in nicely with the young guns here. Semien is more of a professional guy but Springer has a bit of that youthful exuberance in him. Nice thing to add to the team.
Chuck - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#400912) #
Imagine being an Orioles fan. What a dreadful, bland team.
Chuck - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#400913) #
Is that Reese McGuire or Rod Carew?
John Northey - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#400914) #
For guys available through 2022 there is Matthew Boyd - Jays have been looking at him for awhile, sadly lost him years ago in the David Price trade. 125 ERA+ this year in 13 starts, 70 IP, 3 times 7+ IP (max 8), 4 more 6 IP. Right now though I wouldn't be too excited about him. The rotation is doing well so spending a lot on a guy for it who is less than an ace seems a poor allocation of resources. I'd rather spend less and get a solid reliever or two.
John Northey - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#400915) #
What the heck were they thinking bringing in the guy who was just called up? This guy is no better than the 14th best reliever on the Jays depth chart. Meanwhile your closer is sitting in the pen. Dumb, dumb, dumb. If the 3 batter minimum didn't exist then I could see it, but otherwise purely insane.
Kasi - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#400916) #
Probably wanted to save Romano for the top of the order. At some point pitchers just need to get batters out. Chatwood's issue for walking 2 guys to start the inning. It would be nice if he could consistently throw strikes again.
Kasi - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#400917) #
Of course now they bring in Romano. Heh. It would be nice if we had more than 1.5 reliable relievers. (Romano + Mayza)
Michael - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#400918) #
Yeah, I was more concerned about brining in Chatwood with only a 4 run lead than bringing in the lefty after Chatwood's 3 batters faced, none retired. At least he only walked 2 of the 3.
Polite Nate - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#400919) #
Feels like a mini trial for Saucedo, who's looked fine so far. Can't ask Romano to get 4-6 outs in every single game within reach.
greenfrog - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#400920) #
Montoyo and the bullpen need to be better than this.
Four Seamer - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#400921) #
Nice play, Grichuk.
hypobole - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#400922) #
Not many good choices in the pen.
Magpie - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#400923) #
Chatwood had eight straight hitless outings coming in, and I suppose it was a chance to find out if Saucedo could be used in a game situation. What really irritates me is walking a .197 hitter with the bases loaded.
Kasi - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#400924) #
Problem is nearly all of our bullpen have bad control Romano included. It would be nice to have some pitchers who could strike someone out and not walk everyone.
Kasi - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#400925) #
Wish the Jays hitters would ever deliver at home in walk off situations. Need to look more into the stats but the Jays seem to be awful at it this year.
John Northey - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#400926) #
Chatwood I was good with giving a shot to as, like everyone says, the pen has been a nightmare lately. But once he was in trouble you had to bring in Romano. Using Saucedo was as bad a choice as possible with this pen. However, if Vlad did the job late (runner on 3rd under 2 out, 2 on none out in 10th) then it wouldn't have mattered.

So frustrating. A win made into a loss.
Polite Nate - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#400927) #
I feel bad for Saucedo, sucks to get hit. But it's Chatwood and Thornton walking every other batter that drives me up the wall.
Petey Baseball - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#400928) #
That is a really poorly managed baseball game. I would really like an explanation of why Saucedo was in the game in that situation.
Spifficus - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#400929) #
Thorton repeatedly going back to the cutter and having it go to the same spot 8 inches off the plate over and over and over was the most frustrating part to me. Of course, I missed the first two hitters Chatwood faced...
BlueJayWay - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#400930) #
Well, they lost a game they should have won. Again.
Dr. Zarco - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#400931) #
Boy, not all losses feel the same. And this, like the Sox/Rays losses of the losing streak in mid-May, just sucks. I’m with Polite Nate, the walks are completely awful. When Thornton appeared to pitch around Franco to get to Valaika, it felt like a terrible idea. How many walk-off walks (though this obviously wasn’t a walk-off loss) can this pen surrender.

Poor Vlad hit it 107mph and is the goat. Tough break. Tough game. Up 5-1 in 8th at home against a terrible team. Eek. Get ‘em tomorrow.
Nigel - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#400932) #
I understand that the bullpen options aren’t great but, oh man, that didn’t feel like a well managed game. All teams look bad when they lose games like this, but I think, at some point, the manager had to feel the heat.
Kasi - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#400933) #
We had the ninth to get a run and the tenth to get a run and once again at home we failed. Lineup needs to take some responsibility here too for not showing up late in games. Yes the bullpen blew it but at some point you need to deliver late in the game.
hypobole - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#400934) #
I did look at the Jays hitters stats, Kasi

Low leverage - 116 wRC+ - 2nd in AL
Medium leverage 103 wRC+ - 5th in AL
High leverage 95 wRC+ - 11th in AL
Spifficus - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#400935) #
Maybe Saucedo wasn't the best option at the moment, but this is currently a personnel problem.
scottt - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#400936) #
Terrible loss. Can't walk guys with a huge lead. At least make them hit it.
Is Payamps injured? Has not pitched since June 17. 
I hate using Romano to lose games.

Kasi - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#400937) #
Yeah that’s not very good Hyperbole. I also looked up on fangraphs high leverage and extra innings and I got 31 WRC+. They need to be better. This game reminds me of the two against Tampa. They had chances to walk it off and failed.
Magpie - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#400938) #
I missed the first two hitters Chatwood faced...

Chatwood's still like a starter, a guy with four pitches, and sometimes he has to find out what's working and what isn't. You'll remember the other day, he couldn't throw his four-seamer for strikes. That time they figured it out quickly, he put the pitch away, and relied on his two-seamer. Tonight, he couldn't throw his two-seamer or his changeup for strikes. It took the two walks before they discovered that at least his cutter was working. He got an out and he got a first pitch strike with it. Then he gave up the hit on his first four-seamer (even that was a couple of feet from being the GDP that gets him out of the inning with no runs across.)

The bullpen has just two guys who don't walk a lot of people - Mayza and Thornton.
Petey Baseball - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#400939) #
You can pin it on players, of course. They walked guys and gave up runs.

But the game was on the line in the eighth inning and the manager warms up and brings in a rookie with two major league appearances under his belt? Instead of Payamps, whose actually been in high leverage situations this season.

This is after he already used Mayza up 5-1 with nobody on base the previous inning.

It's often said the difference between minor league managing and the majors is the speed of the game, and how much quicker decisions must be made.

Magpie - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#400940) #
It would have been nice if Grichuk had been able to hold on to that foul ball, but this was the first game he'd played in RF in this stadium since last season and after that long run he had to be wondering where the wall was.
Spifficus - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#400941) #
I wasn't saying it was the player's fault, though technically yeah. When Mayza is your second-most reliable reliever, it's a roster construction issue. We all get why that's the case - they have a bullpen on the IL - but eventually you have to find some guys you can trust, and it doesn't make it any less frustrating while you do.
Magpie - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#400942) #
And it turns out Payamps' back is bothering him, and they preferred not to use him.
Kasi - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#400943) #
I don’t think it’s quite fair to blame the manager for trying to get someone other than Romano to do anything when up 5-2. You can’t bring Romano in in every high leverage situation. At some point they have to try someone else. It worked in Miami and not here. But lately who have we had. Chatwood and Dolis were consistent until they weren’t. Same for Mayza and Castro. Mayza and Chatwood mostly bounced back. Romano had been consistent but he is the only one really. Thornton and Payamps can be fine but also bad. The rest are young and unproven or guys like Edwards who used to be good. Anyway a lot of bad choices and it can’t just be Romano all the time especially with the bottom of the order up.
Spifficus - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#400944) #
Hey, in terms of pitchers that have good stuff and can't throw strikes, Nate Jones just elected free agency. If you're impatient to wait for the bases-loaded walks, don't worry because he also comes with a HR/9 rate over 3, so he'll end 'em quick.
Nigel - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#400945) #
In the context of today’s game, I think it fair to blame both roster construction and the manager. If you want to allocate blame 90/10 or 10/90 it’s hard to argue either way. Deserved or not, at some point this will become a player confidence in the manager issue. I’m not suggesting we’re there yet, but it’s something to monitor. Kasi’s points about the offence are on point too. This isn’t an elite offence in general and definitely not in the clutch.
Kasi - Friday, June 25 2021 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#400946) #
My view of Montoyo is he’s fine as long as he is helping players develop and has their trust. If he loses the players trust than I figure he’ll be less effective in helping them develop so at that point is replace him quick with a more tactical manager. I would guess he still has the trust but who knows. Bullpen issues are again but when everyone sucks or is injured it’s hard to blame the manager there.

As for the offense with Springer back I think we can compete with Boston and Houston and others but geez at times it looks like our players are still quite young. Either that or just brutally unlucky. It just feels like if we don’t get to the starters we just struggle to score runs. Many of these bullpen losses were because batters could not string hits together to score some runs late in games.
uglyone - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#400947) #
These are the games we cannot lose.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#400948) #
Atkins, Borucki and Merryweather need to feel some heat. The pitchers have been fragile, handled with care and still not being effective. These guys also take way to long to recover. I’d try to get them healthy, finish the season and trade them both for durable pitchers.

Add this to my list of things learned so far:

Pete Walker can’t fix relievers (Dolis, Chatwood)

Mike Green - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#400949) #
Anyone got the fortitude to count the number of losses where the Jays led by 3 runs or more after 6 innings. It feels like they have had more in half a season than would be typical for a full season.
bpoz - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#400950) #
We play TB 6 times before the AS break. July 2-11 with the Orioles in between for 3 games. We need to get hot before the AS game or most likely we are sellers.

We still play tough games after the break to July 31. 15 games 3 Texas, 2 KC. That is 5 games against teams below us. Then 10 games against teams that are above us. 3 vs Mets and 7 vs Boston.

Basically a very tough schedule for the Jays.
hypobole - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#400952) #
"These are the games we cannot lose."

That's it. But all teams sometimes lose games they shouldn't lose.

Afterward almost everybody wants to rush to judgement and point fingers, with the manager as the #1 target.

Saucedo is no kid, he's almost 29. He had a 1.54 FIP in AAA, and even after last nights "meltdown" a 1.43 FIP here. Between the 2 levels, he's faced 69 batters, walked 2 and hasn't given up a HR. With the other pen options, Montoyo's decision was perfectly defensible in my opinion.

As for the batters, yes we've been bad as a team in high leverage. But when I went down to the players, it shows the same, but different.

High leverage wRC+

The good to great
Teoscar 229
Vlad 174
Semien 129
Bo 125
McGuire/Davis/Kirk in this group but only 11 PA's combined.

The bad to very bad:
Grichuk 62
Panik 58
Gurriel 55
Biggio 22

After that though, everyone is a negative, with 45 PA's between them. 40 of those are Rowdy (-22), Jansen (-53), Espinal (-47) and Adams(-14).

So last nights lineup in theory should have done better in the clutch. They didn't. It happens.

jerjapan - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#400953) #
"Clutch" hitting is not really a thing, certainly not a thing that we can meaningfully measure or track. 

I read an interesting reddit thread on the subject that noted that '3 true outcomes' type players will struggle in the clutch given that the stakes have shifted in a game with 'clutch' at bats. 

Long story short, late in a game, you want your elite singles hitter in a clutch situation, rather than a guy who Ks all the time.  The variability of the lineup is the issue.  We've got seven regulars with 50+ Ks already.  It's going to happen, and further explanation for why we went after Brantley in the offseason. 

My problem with Montoya's management has been exemplified in his not using Saucedo enough.  The willingness to punt on a roster spot to keep someone to soak up innings in a pinch.  so your emergency longman pitches 2x in two weeks, effectively, and gets himself a higher leverage spot, and struggles.  Saucedo should have been brought in instead of Chatwood, with the four run lead to start the 7th.  There are other games he should have appeared in.  Montoya's usage has been just as rigid as the FO's roster deployment, and so here we, although I applaud Montoya's recent willingness to break from the norm in terms of who he uses and for how long.  

we need relievers who throw strikes, and this org's fascination with stuff has mean we get the Beasley's and Barnes's of the world, guys with 'upside' and control issues.  who is our strike thrower?  Tim Mayza, at 3.6 BB/9 career???

My opinion of this FO has come a long way, but the one critique I've always maintained is that they are simply not flexible.  They don't pivot from the plan.  So the bullpen pecking order remains the same, Saucedo or Overton's not walking anybody be damned.  Hatch is a starter.  We don't make trades this early.  Etc.
You want a reliable pen, you need to pay for it - in assets or dollars.  Even TB, everyone's platonic ideal for how not to pay for nice things, dealt Adames for two relievers.  A month ago.  Too early for a trade?  That's just an excuse for 'we are sticking to the plan'. 

You want a cheap, volatile, fungible pen with upside, this is what you get. 

Perhaps investing all of our veteran relief dollars in Yates, Chatwood and Phelps was not the right move.  That's over 10 million for a swing of the dice, not to mention we still have Yamaguchi and Roark's dead money to deal with. 

IF we are serious about winning, we need to pay up, add a big name starter - Berrios for Pearson plus, and start looking for an impact reliever.  Pearson has ace upside - the Pearson for Berrios deal comes from a FG chat, not some rando online, and while his latest injury news may nix that possibility, this is the kind of deal we need to explore.  One that stings.  And just imagine the howls of protest we will see here on the Box - people thought Ross Stripling was a huge overpay.  People still complain about Thor, and Matt Boyd, and so on. 

That's if we want to win this year - which, perhaps given the timeline, maybe the FO is not that invested in winning this year?  Nothing nefarious here, just saying, a conservative FO is going to be conservative in recognizing that the window is open, right?
bpoz - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#400955) #
Agreed jerjapan. It looks like 94 wins or so to get a WC. If it still looks that way at the trade deadline we need to sell and get value for our "not good enough" results.

Strike throwers and better health for the pen would have made a difference in our results so far.

SK in NJ - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#400956) #
I’m not a Montoyo fan and would be fine if they replaced him but the bullpen aside from Romano is really bad. Trying Saucedo in that spot versus putting any other available non-Romano option probably doesn’t make much difference. This pen is “Romano or pray”. The prayers didn’t work this time.

As far as the offense, in hindsight being able to add Brantley (as long as it didn’t impact signing Semien) would have made a huge difference. Shame he went back to the Astros.
Gerry - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#400957) #
Jared Hoying, we hardly knew ya.

Hoying is off to Korea, having elected free agency after the Jays dropped him.
hypobole - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#400958) #
Funny that Brantley , who wore the injury-prone tag for so long has been remarkably healthy during his Astros tenure.

Kinda agree on clutch. Read something long ago that looked into it and aside from very few outliers (Julio Franco for some reason comes to mind) it doesn't exist. But.

As jerjapan mentioned, there seem to be unclutch, which has been much less studied AFAIK.

Without going into psychological aspects, there seems a couple of simple reasons. First, in clutch situations batters more often than usual are facing better than usual pitching. And opposing managers strive for and get handedness advantage more often than usual.

Batters that struggle against big time heat and/or really nasty sliders should struggle even more in the clutch because that's what a lot of elite relievers possess.

And batters with sizable normal splits will start against opposite handed pitchers often. When they have to face a quality same-handed reliever in a clutch situation they may get pinch-hit for, but with short benches nowadays, it's often not possible.

greenfrog - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#400960) #
I wonder if there could also be a “team clutch” factor in some situations. For example, a lineup that fouls off a lot of pitches, draws walks, and generally wears down opposing pitchers, might have more success as a unit than a lineup that swings at a lot of first pitches and strikes out a lot. In other words, certain types of hitters might help make subsequent hitters more “clutch.”

This effect might be even more pronounced under the new three-batter minimum, which can really hang an opposing team out to dry when one of its relievers gets stressed and starts making mistakes (for example, by giving up walks).
greenfrog - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#400961) #
Maybe Chatwood is the kind of pitcher who would have been a better acquisition under the old rules. Under the current rules, on days when he can’t find the plate, the three-batter minimum really penalizes the Jays because Montoyo can’t yank him after one or two batters. As we’ve seen, in some games this can make the difference between a win and a loss.
Kasi - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#400962) #
I do think in some few cases clutch and unclutch exists. But I think that is on individuals not on teams. What I think there is here is that there are clutch stats. Basically it’s so you hit better or worse depending on leverage. Those stats exist and they are descriptive of what has happened. I agree in most cases (nearly all) it doesn’t have a lot of value going forward. It’s kinda like compared b-ref WAR to f-War. One is more descriptive one is more prescriptive. So what it shows me is that to this point this year the Jays hitters are bad in clutch situations. It could stay like that or it could turn around tomorrow. Who knows.

But as a purely descriptive stat it shows why when we’re tied or one down in late inning situations we very much have struggled this year. Ofc the bullpen is bad but I was surprised to hear yesterday we aren’t even top 3 in blown saves. Partly I think it’s the nature of this offense we have a lot of blowout wins. But partly it’s because we don’t do a good job in 1-2 run games. Bullpen is the biggest part but offense shares some blame too.
hypobole - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#400963) #
And while Jays fans are complaining about the proverbial no shoes:

"Braves right-hander Mike Soroka will undergo surgery to fix a torn Achilles tendon, the team announced. This will be the second season-ending Achilles procedure in as many years for Soroka, as according to the Braves’ announcement, he suffered “a complete re-tear of the tendon” while walking to the team’s clubhouse on Thursday."
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#400965) #
Am i the only one that thinks next years team may be worse offensively with no Semien?

I also would assume our rotation is worse with no Ray or Matz and another year of decline for Ryu.

I dont think this FO can afford those pending free agents and re-sign our core guys like Vlad and Bo. Youre likely looking at following:

Vlad 20 million/year (paying for some arb years)
Bo 20 million
Biggio 10 million
Ray 20 million/ year at least
Matz 12 million

I dont think they will add 80+ million to the payroll and i dont think they will wait for Vlad or Bo to get to the end of their current deals.

John Northey - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#400966) #
Not too worried about payroll just yet. Doubt Ray or Matz will get 5+ year deals, Vlad & Bo & Biggio won't be making $10+ a year for at least 2 more years, let along $20+ unless there are massive changes in the player agreement this winter. My gut says the agreement switches from years of service alone to a mix of that and age - ie: 6 years of service or 30+ years old to start, with the age moving down over the next 5 years to 27 or 28. That would significantly reduce the delays in bringing kids up. Maybe teams get to match contracts for guys with under 6 years of service or something.
John Northey - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#400967) #
A fun thing is checking leaderboards.
Runs Created (old stat from Bill James) - Vlad leads majors with 80, league average over 600 PA is 70, #2 is Nick Castellanos with 65 RC. So Vlad is creating runs at more than double the average for the league. Yikes.

Vlad is doing RC at an 11.3/27 outs pace. Mike Trout in less than half the playing time is at 12.5. Byron Buxton is at 13.8 in just 110 PA.

Just a bit of fun there.
christaylor - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#400968) #
I appreciate this discussion -- the idea that clutch doesn't exist is dependent upon assigning the player the talent of being able to outperform relative to their talent level in high-leverage situations. If we're looking at the past, we can see this, it happened. Is it a skill, probably not. On the flip-side are there unclutch players? I think there it's difficult to separate the unclutch versus the merely bad. High leverage situations are when bad things happen to a pitcher's traditional stat line. For a hitter, not taking opportunities is also reflected in their traditional stats. Players with bad traditional stats tend to be subject to attrition.

This has been a lot of words to say, after thinking about this a lot when folks liked to discuss true talent level and such things... I've landed on the comforting thought that traditional baseball stats maybe lacking in discerning hidden good performance but they are good at identifying bad play. Perhaps the game just lends itself to describing bad play as it is a game of failure and the sample size of failure is going to be much larger than success.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#400970) #
Also, the Jays have some prospects who could be ready to contribute next year (at the minimum salary): Martin, Groshans, SWR, Smith, Taylor, Lopez. If those players could cover third base, second base, and a SP rotation slot, it could help offset the loss of Semien, Ray and Matz.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#400971) #
And Moreno, of course!
Magpie - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#400973) #
Alek Manoah has dropped his appeal and begun serving his suspension. He can return on July 2 for the first game against Tampa Bay. I would expect Kay to start on the 30th and Matz on the 1st against Seattle.
Hodgie - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#400974) #
Somebody needs to tell the Jays batters they are never going to be clutch if they continue scoring all these runs early in games.
John Northey - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#400975) #
Well, last nights horrid loss obviously devastated the Jays. Only leading 8 to 0 in the 5th. Advantage of a young happy team - I doubt anything gets them down for long.
hypobole - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#400976) #
I'm guessing there may not be a "Who's going to blow the save" pool today.
Magpie - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#400977) #
Konner Wade was drafted in 2013 and has waited all these years to make his major league debut. He might be wondering why he bothered.
scottt - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#400978) #
Pressure is building to get a top reliever.

krose - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#400979) #
Bullpen help cannot come quickly enough. But this team will need some other adjustments to reach the top tier with teams like Tampa, Houston, CWS, Oakland. More starts for Espinal and flipping Bo to second and Semien to short might be helpful to the defence without hurting the offence. Not sure those moves along with 2 good relievers would be enough to reach that top tier, but those moves could help some.
krose - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#400980) #
Crickets! Is everyone holding their breaths?
Magpie - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#400981) #
flipping Bo to second and Semien to short

Will never, never happen.
krose - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#400982) #
Why not Mags?
krose - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#400983) #
This team appears to be in the very early stages of competitiveness. I think it will be reshaped in a big way later this season and in the off-season. One change that’s needed is improved defence from the left side. With the number of skilled short stops available, seems likely the Jays could become stronger at ss. Ego be damned!?
Magpie - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#400984) #
Because the chances of Semien being here past this season are Slim and None. He'll be 31 next year, he needs to get paid, and this organization is not going to commit more than $100 million for the age 31-35 years of an infielder. An outfielder, sure.
hypobole - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#400985) #
Magpies right. If they haven't done it by now, they won't do it. They Jays aren't going to jerk around a core piece who's here another 4 years for a one-and-done.
John Northey - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#400986) #
Magpie - agreed that I don't see Semien re-signing. But the question is will someone offer him $100+ mil for 5+ years? Middle infielders do not age well historically, plus there are many others and who has the cash and will be looking? Semien helped himself by moving to 2B given the batch of SS's out there. Story will be the A1 guy this winter, Corey Seager is in his age 27 season now and has a 128 OPS+ lifetime - he is getting his money, Chris Taylor is a super-sub more than a SS but plays a lot at 2B as well (and CF) with his 112 lifetime 132 OPS+ this year entering his age 31 season. So lots of choices but who needs them? Dodgers have Seager & Taylor but are already well over $200 million, the Yankees might want to upgrade Gleyber Torres but I doubt it. Boston has Xander Bogaerts. Hard to see multiple teams with $100+ mil to spare for a star SS this winter.
Magpie - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#400987) #
This team has a number of things in common with the 1983 team (the young lineup, the awful bullpen.) It should have a future. It has almost nothing in common with the 2015 team, an old team whose GM's contract was about to expire. That group was basically win-now-or-bust.
hypobole - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#400988) #
Sorted the 177 relievers by FIP on the FG site to see who's good and potentially available. #1-#2 are Hader and Kimbrel.

Anyone hazard a guess who is #3 of the 177 relievers listed?
Spifficus - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#400989) #
I'm guessing it's not Chatwood.
Spifficus - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#400990) #
Does FIP take HBP into account?
Magpie - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#400991) #
Hey, he's only hit 1 guy this year.
Alex Obal - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#400992) #
First guess was Aaron Loup. He's #10.

I would run with Anthony Kay as closer for a month. See what happens. He's likely a reverse splitter long-term, so he's well-suited to a defined inning role. He can miss bats. And it frees them up to use Romano in leverage spots all over the place.
Alex Obal - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#400993) #
Oh, wait, it defaults to WAR not FIP. Loup it is. It's tough to compete with a 0.0% HR rate. Romano is 8th. Hendriks 16th. I don't know if I'd be giving up anything of value for those overachievers near the top of the list.
Magpie - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#400994) #
Loup has averaged 1 HBP per 10 IP in his career. He's got just 1 in 22.2 IP this year, but that could revert to the norm in five minutes.

I'm not aware of any pitcher, ever, who has hit batters more frequently. I'm not aware of anyone besides Loup who has hit batters more frequently than Charlie Morton of the Braves (1 every 11.5 IP). Loup and Morton hit batters literally twice as often as guys like Drysdale and Stieb who were famous for hitting batters.
hypobole - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#400995) #
Oh, yeah. You guys got it. Shocked me. The 1 HBP part less so, but not much.

Rodriguez will be available for sure. He's 10th on the list. Romano is 8th. The first 7 are all on contenders How about #9? The guy who got the win last night. 3 more years of control after this one. So he isn't going to be cheap.
scottt - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#400996) #
Semien is peaking at 28-30.
Bichette is just 23 and should keep improving.
Whoever they plug at third base next year won't produce as much as Semien, but they can make that up with catcher, left field, DH producing more.
The rotation could be Ryu, Manoah, Stripling, Hatch?, SWR?, Pearson?, Thornton?, whoever.
But they'll need a shutdown bullpen.

In July, they could pickup a starter and move Stripling to the pen, but Stripling has been their best starter lately and he's more a long relief guy in the pen than a back to back high leverage guy.
So they might as well keep him there and keep stretching Hatch for another month.
If an emergency arises they still have Kay, Hatch and maybe even SWR in a September callup.
Personally, I'd still like to have a look at a couple of guys, especially Harris, roster permitting.

Magpie - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#400997) #
The rotation could be Ryu, Manoah, Stripling, Hatch?, SWR?, Pearson?, Thornton?, whoever.

Of the three free agents, I think Robbie Ray is the most likely to be back. He'll be 30 in a few months and he'll need to get paid - but I think he likes the organization and the feeling ought to be mutual. He's got a pretty good health record and he's pitched very well. He will certainly believe, to the very depths of his soul, that he would have got himself straightened out and turned his career around wherever he happened to be. But the fact that it happened with this team won't hurt.
Spifficus - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#400998) #
a 4.5 BB/9 rate and a tendancy to lose pitches armside in Loupian fashion whenever I've seen him doesn't look like the pepto to the bullpen heartburn.

If we're not shopping in the dollar store, Taylor Rodgers looks interesting.
Alex Obal - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#400999) #
The long-term plan, I have to imagine, is to build a big stable of excess/failed SP prospects and concoct a bullpen out of them. Throw a little harder, focus a little harder, and so on. They could accelerate the process by trying to buy someone else's excess/failed SPs. I basically didn't follow baseball at all for the last two or three years so don't ask me who the names should be...
Nigel - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#401001) #
I agree that there little chance that Semien is back so the trade idea that was floated the other day of moving Biggio is a bad idea. He’s the starting 2B next year.
hypobole - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#401002) #
Taylor Rogers has been good/really good for 4 years now. Has another year of control. Will they trade him, since they probably plan to contend next year? He would get the Twins a nice haul.
Magpie - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#401003) #
Stark notes that the Phillies bullpen has blown 6 saves in the past 4 games. "That seems like a lot."

We don't have to suffer alone! Others are suffering, too!
John Northey - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#401004) #
Want ugly? Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 saves and 13 blown. Others sub 1-1 ratio are Miami, Philly, Colorado. Baltimore is dead on at 12-12 sv-blown save. So yeah, things could be a lot worse. Jays are 14-10 with 35 holds.

Now, mix in holds (since you can blow a hold and get a BS) and the worst is 70% for the Phillies. Jays at 79% vs ML average of 81%. The Cubs are #1 at 92%, Cleveland for the AL at 89%. Rays 86% Yankees 85%, Red Sox 84%. So yeah, this is hurting the Jays without a doubt. 113 times a reliever came in with the lead, 49 times tied, 92 times behind. Only the O's and Angels have had relievers come in with runners on more often (85 times vs 169 times bases empty). Jays 5th in getting >3 outs (75 times, 5th most) surprisingly. 68 times fewer than 3 outs (6th most). Only 28 times did a reliever come in with 0 days rest (tied for 3rd fewest in baseball), the average reliever threw 19 pitches (right at ML average).

Lots to digest there but I'd say it shows Montoyo is giving the guys their best chance by avoiding 0 days rest and giving them lots of chances to go more than 1 inning.
scottt - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#401005) #
The Jays never gave much or received much in relievers trade.
I don't know if you can really get a "nice haul" for a reliever.
It hardly ever happens. The Chapman/Miller trades being the exceptions.
A QO is a lot of money for a reliever, so most teams are not even contemplating a draft pick if they keep them.
If you're out of contention, you try to get all the lottery tickets for all the free agents you have and you bring some young guys up to pitch in the pen. If they turn up OK, it's a plus for next year, if not, you're improving your draft picks.

The most the Jays have given up lately are the guys in the Stripling trade.
The Jays have extra players to unload, either at the deadline or before the Rule 5 draft.

3-0 Boston over the Yankees.
4 of the 6 Red Sox hits are infield hits because everybody is hustling. Bogaerts, Devers, etc..
Way too many Jays running to first like they're on the wrong side of 40s.
Props to Espinal.

scottt - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#401006) #
Ceremony to honor Pedroia before the game.
Past Red Sox Mike Lowell, Tim Wakefield, Pedro Martinez, Luis Tiant and Jacob Ellsbury in attendance.
Ellsbury got to shake hands will all the Yankees coaches he never played a game for.
Good times.

scottt - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#401008) #
Seems like Kirk is with Trenton and could be back with the Jays as early as July 1.
hypobole - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#401009) #
scottt, most reliever trades are rentals, so yeah, no haul. Look what the O's got for Givens last year. Givens was good, but not close to the track record of Taylor Rogers.
John Northey - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#401010) #
Another site had a thread up about what to do when all the catchers are healthy. My view is....

#1: Jansen - seems on defense he is very strong (via stats teams have vs what we see)
#2: McGuire - also strong on defense, LH bat is very nice to have as well
#3: Kirk - has options so more time in AAA not a bad thing, this teams offense is more than capable without him for 2022.
#4: Adams - should get used to the minors as he'll be on the shuttle between AAA and the majors for the next few years probably as every team needs a guy in AAA who can fill in when one of the regular catchers is hurt.
#5: Moreno - will be moved to AAA at some point I suspect, the question is will the Jays work on moving him to 3B or leave him behind the plate. If Kirk isn't traded then I expect Moreno to be moved to 3B. If Kirk is traded then Moreno might be the #1 catcher in 2022 by May.

My expectation for 2021 is Jansen/McGuire until September, then Kirk added if not traded otherwise Adams as the #3 guy. Kirk should be able to get something nice in trade and with the massive depth behind the plate why not use him that way? This offense can carry a weak hitting catcher tandem especially if Moreno can take over in 2022. Plus Zach Britton (22) is hitting 242/446/404 in low A (first pro season) so more help on the way. Adams AAA line wasn't exactly bad either - 250/410/600 but his 2 for 25 line in the major sucks big time.
hypobole - Saturday, June 26 2021 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#401011) #
Bet a kettle of cuttlefish Moreno remains at catcher. He may play some 3rd if he's OK there. Similar to Russ Martin.
scottt - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#401014) #
The O's got Terrin Vavra, 2018 3rd round pick, 2B, now 10th in Baltimore system,  Tyler Nevin, signed in the 38t round in 2015,  a right handed 1B who is now 21st in Baltimore system and Mishael Deson, unranked.

Givens was terrible in Colorado, pitched 9 innings, allowed 8 runs, 7 earned.

The equivalent here would be a package based around Nick Frasso or Trent Palmer, not necessary a near top 10 prospect. Hiraldo is a possibility given the high number of middle infielders in front of him (and behind him).
However, they should deal a catcher and they have a lot of interesting guys outside the top 10--no matter what fangraphs might say.

The guys they dealt, like Connine and Williams were 45 grade prospects. So is Vavra. 

ayjackson - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#401015) #
I'll take your cuttlefish, hypo. I've been calling for Moreno to be moved off catcher for years.
bpoz - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#401016) #
Givens was a reliever. The Jays don't have any good relievers that are rentals. Maybe Chatwood but I don't consider him good. Also Dolis if he comes back in time to build his trade value.

Semien, Matz and Ray are expiring contracts that may be attractive to someone. LAD and SD are 2 teams that will try to bolster themselves for the playoffs.
Chuck - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#401017) #
Also Dolis if he comes back in time to build his trade value.

Dolis does not figure to have much trade value. In his 45 IP as a Jay, he has walked 6 men per 9 innings and has a 3.82 FIP. He has held a prominent position in the team's bullpens last year and this only because those pens were so thin. He'd hardly be the type of pitcher another organization would see as much more than just another anonymous arm in a deep pen.

bpoz - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#401018) #
Agreed Chuck. If we are lucky enough to have a 3-5 week injury free and injury recovery period in July-Aug. Borucki, Merryweather come back. I see only Romano as the pitcher that has a secure high leverage role to "lose". Borucki, Merryweather, Dolis, Chatwood, Thornton and others will be in competition to be used in the most crucial situations. P Murphy has a chance also. Being a big arm with enough experience.
bpoz - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#401019) #
Cannot be sure what the Jays will do at the trade deadline. I am looking at who would want what as an organization.

NY Mets desperately need offense. They are in a good position to make the playoffs.

Cincinnati are rebuilding quite well. Similar to the Jays. Both are in weak positions to make the playoffs. Both probably sell off expiring contracts. Both may want to exchange quite good prospects. S Taylor and K Smith from the Jays.

LAA, Washington and St Louis probably don't throw in the towel because they all believe that they are in their window. Throwing in the towel probably will cause negative feelings.

Pittsburg, Detroit and Baltimore probably knew at the start of the season that they were not going to contend. They knew that they would be sellers at the trade deadline.
hypobole - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#401020) #
Despite Dolis walk rate last year and his FIP a run and a half higher than his ERA, he would have had value. No matter why he was closing last year, he did close and was effective for the most part. Lots of pitchers are fine in lower leverage, but fold in high leverage situations.

That said, what he's done this year has tanked whatever value he had last year. Rentals, especially those with short track records, get traded for how they are doing in the present. And this year he's been awful.
scottt - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#401021) #
Jared Hoying is back in South Korea. He'll now play for the KT Whiz.
Magpie - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#401022) #
Dolis does not figure to have much trade value.

But entertainment value... this is an extremely weird player. In 2020, he was basically Gerrit Cole - the Hits/p, the HRs/9, the Ks/9 are basically identical - but with four times as many bases on balls. And so we found out just how good you have to be if you want to get away with walking 5.3 per 9 - as good as Gerrit Cole. Alas, this year he's been about as good as Nick Pivetta while walking even more people than last year. It turns out, you can't get away with that.

Additional weirdness. Dolis spent years in Japan. Over there, he was a control pitcher who walked fewer hitters than the league average. At which, the mind simply reels.
hypobole - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#401024) #
Equating same round picks is useless. Woodman and Bo were 2nd round picks, with Woodman drafted ahead of Bo. A year later, did anyone actually think they were even close to equivalent?

At FG Vavra is their #9 prospect, 3rd of the O's 6 45's, Nevin the best of their 40's. Deson is not in FG's top 30 either, but was ranked the best of their 35+ group.

What Givens did after the trade is totally pointless.

At FG, the equivalent would be Hiraldo, one of Kloff or Smith, and one of D'Orazio/Zululeta/Robberse.

FG doesn't consider either Conine or Williams 45's. Williams is one of the better 40" on the Dodgers list, Conine one of the mid-or-lower 40's on the Marlins.

John Northey - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#401025) #
Round picks have value - helps determine who was viewed how when drafted and what value teams might have invested in those players (you never see a first round pick treated like a 26th round for example even if they both produce the same at each level). How a player did post trade is valuable in assessing how well a team evaluates their players. For example, AA gave the Mets (according to reports at the time) a choice of Sanchez or Syndergaard (and maybe even Stroman) - the Mets made the right choice in Syndergaard even with his injuries, but all 3 were solid. The Jays would've been wiser to find some other shiny bauble for the Mets in that deal.

Woodman being drafted ahead of Bo says a lot about everyone drafting that year - how they missed Bo's skill set. Pete Alonso was drafted 2 slots before Bo. Bryan Reynolds (8 WAR so far) also was in the 2nd round pre-Bo post Woodman (2 picks after Woodman). 17 others in the 2nd round were picked before any of those 3. Wouldn't Reynolds have looked nice in LF/CF (158 OPS+ this year)? Sigh. Could'a Would'a Should'a. In round one no one has 5 WAR yet (Bo & Alonso & Reynolds all over 6). Jays taking Zeuch, Mets Kay. Most WAR round 1 is Will Smith (32nd overall with 4.8).
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#401034) #
Charlie's Sunday Lesson Plan: "Spare the Rod, Spoil the Oriole."
Nigel - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#401038) #
Bo’s issue in his draft year was that he had an older brother with a similarly funky swing who was struggling after some initial success. Many scouts simply felt that Bo would follow the same path. Views stick - to this day, on prospect chats you can still occasionally read about Bo’s imminent collapse after big league pitchers discover his glaring flaw.
hypobole - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#401039) #
John, it's not just round that determines how players were viewed, it's bonus as well, and sometimes much more so. Rowdy for example.

Both Woodman and Reynolds were college guys, so apples to apples. Woodman got $975,000 ($149 K underslot) while Reynolds 2 picks later got $1,350,000 ($260 K over). Most of the Woodman savings went to Bo.

Plus we gave $400 K to a HS pitcher, Travis Hosterman, in the 11th round. That kid only pitched 18 innings his draft year, got injured and never pitched again. I tried googling him and I found a guy by the same name opened a cleaning service in his home town about the same time the Jays released him.

And teams didn't miss Bo's skill set, they just didn't think it would work. How many guys consistently take hacks like Bo and actually have major league success?
bpoz - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#401042) #
The draft is fast approaching July 11-13. Info should be coming out about how much each team is allowed to spend. Mock drafts will be plentiful. The Jays are always a surprise team.
scottt - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#401043) #
We've known exactly how much each team is allowed to spend for a long time.
I think the Jays are 29th in draft pool money, mostly due to losing their second draft pick.

Ah, another Panik day.
Maybe we get to see if Stripling blows his stack again.

Nigel - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#401045) #
Panik is no more of a 3B than Biggio.
scottt - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#401046) #
Panik is hitting at replacement level, but has negative value if playing anywhere but second base. 
92-93 - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#401048) #
That was a bad send (the LF had the ball well before Vlad touched third), but at least the situation was a good one to take a shot. There was a play a few days ago where Rivera sent the runner with no outs and Vladdy on deck and he was safe, but it was a horrendous decision.
Nigel - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#401049) #
I think that’s exactly the time to send a runner home on a marginal call. I think your chances of scoring are higher than McGuire not getting out.
Magpie - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#401050) #
That was a bad send

I didn't mind so much. They'd already scored twice to take the lead. That fell into the "let's see if they can make the play" category for me. I wouldn't do it against a good defensive team, or if someone like Gurriel was in LF. But the Orioles and D.J. Stewart? Make a play.
Nigel - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#401051) #
Sorry Panik.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#401053) #
Ceremony to honor Pedroia before the game.

Dustin Pedroia had a .290/.356/.441 slash line over 82 career games at SkyDome.

He also played 3 games in Toronto during the 2009 WBC, where he went 2 for 16 with 2 RBI.

Cheeky little bugger...

Kasi - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#401056) #
Feels like another one of these games where the offence should have scored a lot more runs and we let it slip away. Hopefully we actually drive in some runs in the late innings here.
hypobole - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#401057) #
Sorry, ay. Haven't lost a cuttlefish bet so far, and this one may be the easiest yet.
hypobole - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#401058) #
Gonna be a battle of the bullpens pretty soon.
92-93 - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#401060) #
Good move by Montoyo trying to squeeze a few more outs of his starter. With his bullpen, he has to ask for as much as possible from the rotation.
scottt - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#401061) #
On the eve of an off day, no reason to send the pitcher back to start another inning if he's already thrown 90 or so pitches.
If he got something left, he can go finish it in the bullpen.

krose - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#401062) #
Yikes Scott! Have you seen this bullpen lately?
scottt - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#401063) #
Chatwood seems to be an all or nothing gamble.
Ok in a 1-2 run game, irrelevant with a 5 or more lead.
However, in a 3-4 run lead, most of the pen guys can probably give you one inning with 0 or 1 run, as long as they throw strikes.

Kasi - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#401064) #
Nice for us to get a double play there. Good job Murphy.

And yes the bullpen has been bad but that is no reason to up the usage on the starters and Romano unnecessarily. If any of them get injured our bullpen will be even more overtaxed.
Magpie - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#401066) #
Good move by Montoyo trying to squeeze a few more outs of his starter.

Yeah, forget the pre-emptive run to the bullpen. You go with the starter until he forces you to go somewhere else. Pretty old-school for Montoyo.

Alas, as we've seen yet again these last two days, most starting pitchers turn into pumpkins after about two hours work - I belive in that more than pitch counts - and all these damn hits takes time.
Magpie - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#401067) #
We have a winner, folks! Hector Santiago of the Mariners is the first pitcher ejected for a foreign substance violation. (It looks like they've confiscated his glove.) So I guess we won't see him this week.
hypobole - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#401068) #
I'm with Charlie and 92-93. Stripling was at 88 pitches after 5. No reason not to try to give him another inning. Totally agree with the pull as well, though.

Be great if one of the bullpenners actually grabbed hold of the setup role. No offence to Payamps, but we definitely need at least one more dependable arm.
Magpie - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#401069) #
as long as they throw strikes.

That's a mighty big "if" (it would have been helpful if you'd actually used the word "if.") Or what krose said.
Spifficus - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#401070) #
Relievers on the active roster who have fewer than 3 BB/9 - Saucedo, Murphy (under 6IP combined coming in) and Mayza. Loosen it up to league average (3.90), and we can add in Castro, Payamps, Thorton (fresh off his multi-walk outing) and by the skin of his teeth, Barnes.

That's a long way of saying I'm ok trying to max out Stripling.
scottt - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#401072) #
The number 1 problem is Chatwood losing the strike zone.
The number 2 problem is trying to keep relievers in until they get hit around.
Get 3 outs on 3 pitches? Unless you're Romano, your day is over.
Most guys throw too many balls and don't get ahead in the count.
When guys have only 2 pitches it's pretty easy to figure out what they're doing in a count if they go against too many batters.

Spifficus - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#401073) #
When Mayza is your second-most competent (and trusted) reliever on the active, you try to maximize the outs by your starters in close and close-ish games. If you can get a few more trusted arms back there so you can get Chatwood down to the Keep 'em Close role, then it might be a different story.
scottt - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#401074) #
If I send a guy to retire the bottom of the order, it doesn't matter if he does it in 3 pitches or if he gets 3 strikeouts.
It's not the guy I want to face the top of the lineup. Off to the shower.

hypobole - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#401075) #
Bullpen worries may be over. Tommy Milone pitching rehab for the Bisons today.
Magpie - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#401076) #
Tim Mayza's 2021:

               ERA    G   IP    H    R   ER   HR   BB   SO   BF    WHIP   
April/March   0.00  10   6.1   7    0    0    0    0    7   26    1.105   
May        14.73   9   7.1  11   12   12    2    5    7   37    2.182  
June        0.93  12   9.2   5    2    1    0    1    9   35    0.621  

Go figure.
scottt - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#401077) #
This is a bad team. Their 2 best hitters were on the bench.
Now they added Mancini, that's still just 2 good hitters out of 9.
The ump is very generous with the outside corner.
It's not complicated.

Castro sure loves his slider.
I'd just bust a 97mph fastball in there, but instead he throws one slider for a ball and then a second one in the same spot but with more break so that it looks like a strike out of his hand.

Murphy throws a 4-seamer and a curve.
He needs to throw the fastball top of the zone and the curve to the bottom.
The key is to have both pitch look the same out of his hand.
For added difficulty, go in and out with the fastball.
That's all he needs. Maybe throw a few low fastballs to some hitters who can hit the high ones.

Alex Obal - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#401078) #
4:19 PM and only one of the early games has gone final: Marlins/Nats, which was started by Scherzer and Alcantara.
scottt - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#401079) #
5-2 so far against Baltimore. It's OK. Barely.

Boston walked over hot Cole, so the Jays are back in 3rd.
Angels are up on the Rays, so Boston might jump back in front.

I would just DFA Malone. With a bit of luck, someone will pick up his tab.
He's not useful in the pen.

Chuck - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#401080) #
Ohtani just missed out on the cycle. Everything but the... single!
Magpie - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#401081) #
Boston walked over hot Cole

I saw what you did there...
scottt - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#401082) #
Mayza has good movement on his 2-seamer, but not that much command and probably less if he's not well rested.

He threw 28 pitches on May 3. His previous high was 19.
Then on May 7, he threw 22 pitches for 4 outs and got touched for 2 runs. (2 hits , 1 HR).
May 7 is also the last day Borucki pitched, he was placed on the IL May 14 after trying to rest it.
Mayza didn't pitch again until May 13, at that point he's the only lefty in the pen. Gave up another 2 runs on 23 pitches. (2 hits, 1 HR).
Pitched again the next day on May 14, 16 pitches over 1 inning, 1 hit, 2 walks and they all scored.
Came back on May 16 and threw another 26 pitches to get only 2 outs, 2 earned runs on 3 hits.
Got a couple of good outings on May 21 and May 22, 7 and 3 pitches.
Then another bad one on May 24 in which he threw 23 pitches.
After that he got a long break until June 1st.

So, some bad luck, some overuse, some being put in higher leverage role, I think.

Hodgie - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#401083) #
Feels like another one of these games where the offence should have scored a lot more runs and we let it slip away. Hopefully we actually drive in some runs in the late innings here.

You do realize the Jays came into the day second in MLB scoring at 5.09/G? Not sure I get the focus on when they score their runs or the reasoning that the offense is not doing enough.

Kasi - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#401084) #
Because r/g is not the only measure of an offence? We’re one of the worst clutch hitting teams (descriptive not prescriptive but it is what it is), we are one of the worst in high leverage in the AL, we’re among the worst in late game/extra innings WRC, we’re one of the lowest scoring teams in extra innings, etc. I’m not saying that any of this is terribly predictive of what the Jays will be going forward but right now they’ve lost games they could have won if their offence could have gotten a hit in extras.

When the bullpen blows the game it is very easy to blame them. But when the offense does the same it’s not as easy. But I blame them for example for those two extra innings losses in Tampa and think they have no small part to play in Friday’s loss.
hypobole - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#401085) #
Hodgie, you may have missed our discussion a few days ago.

The Jays are the 2nd best hitting team in the AL at 111 wRC+, However:

Low Leverage - 119 wRC+ - 2nd
Medium Leverage - 104 wRC+ - 5th
High Leverage - 93 wRC+ - 12th

Kasi - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#401086) #
Not in Tampa as those games were at home. Jays in those games yes were playing a good Tampa team but they just hacked away and never got close to scoring the one run they needed. Going solely by r/9 doesn’t make much sense. That includes that 18 run game against Boston where basically 13-14 of it was against position players or their AAAA guy they left in to get slaughtered. And that is not the only time we’ve run up the score on last guy in bullpen types. Very good for the r/g stat but pretty useless for anything else.
hypobole - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#401087) #
Interestingly, the team we face next is almost the exact opposite. Seattle:
Overall - 89 wRC+ - 13th

Low Leverage: 76 wRC+ - 14th
Medium Leverage: 99 wRC+ - 8th
High Leverage: 135 wRC+ - 1st

And kinda doing it again today. Homering off Liam Hendricks in the 9th for a 3-2 win in game 1, then not getting a hit till the 6th in game 2 of their twin bill. They're down 7-2.
scottt - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#401088) #
It's OK when Vladdy hits into a double play.
It's a bit more upsetting when Grichuk does it.
It's a lot more upsetting when Panik does it.
His job description should say "move the runner".
Even if he gets a hit through the infield, the runners probably only get one base.
They should be starting the runners on a 3-1 count and a good hitter at the plate.

I really hate the Panik defense at 3B.

Kasi - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#401089) #
Yeah Seattle is the anti us. Just as Toronto is 60 runs in the positive differential they’re -40. But both teams four games over .500. Not even that worse a division as Houston and Oakland match up well to Boston/Tampa and LAA is decent. Or there is Boston who has what I would say is overachieved given their starters but are 6 games up on us.

It’s really easy to just say we would be there if not for our bullpen but as John has pointed out and some other stats show we’re actually not the worst in bullpen. Yes we’ve sucked recently but that first month the Jays way overperformed and those numbers actually balance out to be just mediocre instead of bad.
John Northey - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#401090) #
I have no idea why Panik is on this team. His bat isn't enough, his defense at 3B where he mainly plays is not good (-7.2) even if he is elite at 2B (UZR of 8.3). His fWAR is -0.1 this year, his wRC+ is 81 (ugh). Meanwhile Espinal has a UZR of 4.6 at 3B (hasn't played anywhere else) and a fWAR of 0.5 with a wRC+ of 100. Yet Espinal keeps going on the AAA shuttle while Panik is kept up despite no logical reason. When the next roster crunch happens Panik has to be let go imo. He serves no purpose on this roster that Espinal can't. I'd rather have 3 catchers. However, odds are he will be kept as the 4 regular OF'ers means there is no need for Davis, and Tellez hasn't been close to hitting enough to be kept in the majors.
SK in NJ - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#401091) #
Panik playing over Espinal (or playing in general) is infuriating. Espinal is likely already a better hitter than Panik and defensively it's not even close. Montoyo seems to be trapped in 2015 since that was the last time Panik was as good as Charlie seems to think he is.

Either upgrade the utility IF position or take the toy away from Montoyo so he can't use it.
hypobole - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#401092) #
The best hitting team in baseball is Houston. They also hit into the most DP's. We're in the top 5.

Looking at the GIDP leaderboard, Soto, Mancini, Bohm have 12. Grichuk now joins Bregman at 11. Correa, JD Martinez, Urshela and Donaldson at 10. Vladdy now at 9.

Donaldson stands out, because he's done that in only 235 PA's. Grichuck has 306, Vlad 327.

Tampa has the fewest GIDP's. They are fairly young and run pretty well. Maybe their secret is also not putting a lot of balls in play with men on base. They walk a lot and K a ton.

The guys on our team that stand out are Teoscar and Kirk. Teoscar with only 2 GIDP's in 245 PA's. Kirk managed 3 in only 46 PA's. If Kirk can get to 552 PA's at that rate, he would tie Jim Rice's record 36 GIDP's in a season.
Kasi - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#401093) #
Teoscar is insanely fast so it’s not a surprise there plus I would guess his ground ball rate is lower than average. Kirk is the opposite so also not a surprise. It does suck when someone hits into a double play but it happens and not too much you can do about it. Teams know how to shift and that will lead to lots of DPs on ground balls.

As for Panik I am guessing he is here aaa other IF until someone forced their way up. That likely should be Kevin Smith soon enough. I’d feel better about using him if they only used him at 2b. 3b I don’t know if he’s better enough defensively over Biggio to matter.
John Northey - Sunday, June 27 2021 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#401094) #
For double plays - while speed is a factor, you can't hit into them if your doesn't have men on base. Top 5 in OBP are Houston, LAD, ChiSox, Jays, Reds. For GIDP: Houston, NYY, Padres, Jays, Giants. Dodgers are 15th, White Sox 12th, Reds 8th. Clearly the Yankees (9th in OBP) have a MUCH bigger issue than the Jays for hitting into DP's, as do the Padres (7th in OBP).

FYI: for speed: Jays are 10th in SB with 37 vs 10 CS. #1 is the Padres with 73, #2 is the Rays with 52 (vs 22 CS). Tatis Jr has 16 SB vs 2 CS. Dang that kid is good. He was signed the same time Vlad was - basically that could be one of the best international free agent years of all time. It is interesting to look at previews of that IFA class. The one I linked there has Vlad as #1 (all bat), Juan Soto (12.2 lifetime WAR already, 151 OPS+ lifetime for Washington in LF/RF), and Tatis isn't even listed in the top 30.
Magpie - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#401095) #
There's also the fairly basic fact that LH batters don't hit into DPs as frequently as RH batters. And Tampa Bay has more LH batters, accounting for more than a third of their plate appearances. (Jays LH batters make about a quarter of the team's plate appearances.)
StephenT - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 02:38 AM EDT (#401096) #
I'm surprised at the low attendance in Buffalo.
I thought they'd easily sell every ticket available given that MLB won't be there long.
But attendance Sunday was just 6,044 (as per ), typical of this weekend's games,
even though they opened to "full capacity" of ~16,000 on Thursday (as per ).
scottt - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#401098) #
The attendance is low in Buffalo because they hiked up the prices of the tickets from around $30 to around $100.
They should be smarter about this and only raise the prices for the Yankees games.
Not surprised that the average Joe doesn't want to dish out that much to watch Toronto beat on Baltimore (or blow a late game lead.)

scottt - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#401099) #
Generally, it's true that more men on bases equal more chances for double plays, but Panik is a slow runner with limited power. Biggio gets on base very well ahead of him. McGuire is hot hitting behind him. If they can't even work out the hit and run with him at the plate what does he bring to the team? He can't just be trying to make contact and hit something down the middle in that spot. Really looks like a lack of effort.

Jonny German - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#401100) #
Tickets start at $29. Which isn't cheap, but... what are you talking about?
Thomas - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#401101) #
Maybe you're talking about the best seats only? Because, I get the same thing as Johnny G. There are bunches of seats in the $29-$35 range down the 100-level sidelines once you're past first and third base, for example.

That seems more than reasonable pricing for MLB. Based on my imperfect memory, the cheapest Jays options are over $20, I think, and that's down the sides in the 500s.
hypobole - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#401102) #
Not good at ranting, but I have to agree on most points made in the Espinal/Panik debate. No question Espinal is the superior defender at 3rd. Sometimes stats are needed to parse defence, but the gap between Espinal and Panik (or Biggio) is so substantial eye test alone is enough. Montoyo acknowledges that by subbing him in late in games. And unlike Biggio, there's no realistic hope for improvement from Panik.

Espinal's issue has been his inability to hit RH pitching at the major league level. Large splits last year and early this year. But he has gotten limited opportunities since and done pretty well - 106 wRC+ on the season vs RHP in 49 PA's. Panik at 77 wRC+ in 103 PA's, after a 68 wRC+ in 102 PA's last year vs RHP.

So we've seen Panik can't hit. He can't play even average defence at 3rd. We've seen Espinal can play quality defence at 3rd. Espinal's bat vs LHP has been pretty mediocre though with wRC+ in the 90's both years. But he hasn't gotten extended run either.

One month to go before the trade deadline. Here's what I would do. Give Espinal the month at 3rd and see if he can hit. Few contenders need a 3B, so if Espinal fails, a guy like Eduardo Escobar should be available for a reasonable cost if we're still in contention. Then we can say goodbye to Panik. If we're out of it, give Espinal run for the rest of the season to help provide clarity for offseason needs.

bpoz - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#401103) #
The Jays have climbed the standings as of today. However the schedule will get very hard soon. 16 games against strong teams. TB, NYM and Boston. So a good test and also good for development.
scottt - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#401104) #
They massively hiked the ticket prices when the restrictions were lifted.

scottt - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#401105) #
I'm sure you can go and buy some last minute discounted tickets since the stadium is near empty, but the local press made a ton of noise about the price hikes and the fans are staying away.
scottt - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#401106) #
Games against Tampa and Boston are not hard schedule. Those are the teams they need to beat and the more games against them, the better.  In the last Yankees/Red Sox game, their announcers talked about the Jays as part of their own hard schedule.
bpoz - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#401108) #
I think that beating TB, Boston and the Mets say 12 wins and 4 losses would make a big difference in our playoff hopes. 8 wins or 6 wins may indicate that we are not going to make the playoffs.

Beating Boston and TB are more meaningful.
Hodgie - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#401110) #
Didn't miss the discussion hypobole, just seems misguided to continually harp on the offense for not being clutch when clutch is not a skill. In the examples listed where the offense apparently deserves to be held culpable, the team scored 5 (or more) runs. R/G is obviously not the only way to judge offense, but it does help to reflect the current scoring environment and when you lose despite scoring at the top of that range the offense was not the problem. Sometimes like yesterday, baseball is just going to, well, baseball, and despite hosting a parade on the base paths all day some scorched balls will be turned into DPs, 114MPH liners will dent the wall instead of sailing 450ft onto interstates, and runners are going to get thrown out on at the plate by an inch.
Petey Baseball - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#401111) #
Didn't Keith Law spend a chapter in one of his book unpacking the clutch hitting conversation? I seem to remember the conclusion being boiled down to "there's such a thing as clutch hits, but not a clutch hitter."
Kasi - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#401112) #
No one here is saying it is a skill. The Jays could totally turn it around and start doing well in those situations tomorrow. Can call it unclutch or bad luck or small sample size variation or whatever you want. What is true is there is a number of stats that show this year in high leverage situations that the Jays are bottom 5-10 in the league in a whole bunch of hitting stats. Despite them overall being a top 5-10 team in hitting overall. This explains why they don’t have a large amount of come from behind wins and why they have a poor record in one run games and extra inning games.

If I had to describe issues on why the Jays have underperformed their Pythagorean record to this point I’d say number one is the bullpen. Number two is those weak situational hitting stats. Number 3 is probably managing decisions. Actually the real number one is injuries but that influences everything else.
uglyone - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#401113) #
Yeah don't confuse two issues.

"The offense hasn't produced in the clutch" can be an actual descriptive very real fact.

That doesn't mean it's a skill or lack thereof.

For the record, I do believe there is such thing as clutch skill, in terms of being able to maintain your approach no matter the circumstance. Very unlikely that an entire team can share that skill, though.

When an entire team is "unclutch", that's usually the result of lopsided talent distribution - i.e. a group of really good hitters that are always on base, and a group of really bad hitters behind them who end up getting too many of the "clutch" hitting situations as a result, and don't give as many "clutch" hitting opportunities to the better bats coming up again behind them.

So nothing to do with being "clutch", just to do with the bad hitters getting too many of the "clutch" situations.
uglyone - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#401114) #
According to fangraphs, the Jays rank 14th overall in "High Leverage" offense, with a 98wrc+. That includes being 10th in batting average.

Individually, it breaks down like this:

The good hitters:

Guerrero 33pa, 194wrc+
Teoscar 30pa, 222wrc+
Bichette 27pa, 125wrc+
Semien 26pa, 129wrc+

the not as good hitters:

Grichuk 29pa, 56wrc+
Guriel 24pa, 55wrc+
Biggio 17pa, 44wrc+
Tellez 14pa, -14wrc+
Jansen 11pa, -54wrc+
Espinal 9pa, -47wrc+
Panik 8pa, 58wrc+

5pa or less:

Davis 5pa, 172wrc+
McGuire 4pa, 238wrc+
Palacios 3pa, 84wrc+
Kirk 2pa, 128wrc+
Springer 2pa, -100wrc+
Stripling 2pa, -100wrc+
Hoying 1pa, -100wrc+

so yeah, lopsided lineup (so far).

Leaside Cowboy - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#401116) #
Espinal appears to be the best option at third base. He has a .776 OPS in 93 plate appearances as a starter. Coming off the bench, he is just 1 for 11.

McGuire, Biggio, and Panik are the only left handed bats on the roster. More than one needs to be in the lineup every day. Well, that must be the way management sees it.

Given the toll of the season-long road trip, it is important for team morale to maximize attendance at the Buffalo home games. Even a crowd of casual fans can give the boys a boost.

On the radio, I heard Shapiro say the revenues in Dunedin/Buffalo are negligible. Trying to squeeze blood from this stone is unabashedly pennywise and pound foolish.

However, price gouging the Yankees games is fine, as scottt mentioned, for a variety of reasons.

Hodgie - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#401118) #
But I blame them for example for those two extra innings losses in Tampa and think they have no small part to play in Friday’s loss.

I don't think anyone is confusing the issues. I am trying to reconcile the above statement (and others like it) where despite acknowledging that clutch is not a skill, and knowing the team had scored 7, 8, and 5 runs in those games, the offense was apparently to blame.

scottt - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#401121) #
The good news about that is that Springer should eventually join the "good hitters" giving the Jays a strong top 5.
Could take 2-5 weeks though. 

Kasi - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#401123) #
Because in those 3 games they had multiple chances to win the game with one run being at home and couldn't deliver? I don't particularly care that they scored runs earlier in the game. In the 9th and onward in those games the offence sucked and that lost them a game they could have won.

A big reason Boston has a league leading number of come from behind wins is because their batters have excelled in those situations. And going back to UO's point its not like Boston is a much differently constructed team. Like us they have 4 batters who are carrying them and a fairly weaker bottom of the lineup. They've just performed much better in those situations and that leads to the difference in win/loss records vs them.
Nigel - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#401124) #
Just a thought on this conversation (with no data), but I have been wondering if the all RHH tilt to the best hitters has any impact on their high leverage results? Boston has an even 2/2 LH/RH split (for example). I know that generally the team has hit RHP well, but I wonder if the line-up is susceptible to high leverage RH relievers?
Kasi - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#401129) #
I forgot who said it (maybe jerjapan) but I don't doubt lineup construction has something to do with it. LH/RH could be part of it as could be a lack of good solid OBP guys. Teoscar and Vlad are ofc good there and Semien and Bichette have done fine but when the bottom of our lineup is Gurriel/Grichuk/Catchers/reserves that really hurts. Biggio should theoretically be a boon here as both a LH bat and a guy with a good OBP in general but he has sucked pretty bad in those situations. Perhaps the skillsets that allow these batters to be better under normal circumstances punish them here?

To answer your question Nigel against RHP in high leverage situations the Jays are 19th in the league with a 85 WRC+. Seems to be some stats to suggest that good RHP dominate us. (overall vs RHP we're 113 WRC+ which is 3rd in MLB)
Kasi - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#401130) #
If you look at fangraphs and go batters vs RHP in all situations vs high leverage its rather interesting.

All situations vs RHP:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 215
George Springer 172
Reese McGuire 144
Marcus Semien 140
Alejandro Kirk 140
Cavan Biggio 109
Santiago Espinal 106
Teoscar Hernández 103
Bo Bichette 102
Randal Grichuk 97
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 87
Danny Jansen 85
Joe Panik 77
Josh Palacios 70
Rowdy Tellez 56
Jonathan Davis 26
Riley Adams -70

High Leverage vs RHP:
Reese McGuire 238
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 218
Teoscar Hernández 180
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 152
Alejandro Kirk 128
Bo Bichette 84
Jonathan Davis 84
Josh Palacios 84
Joe Panik 82
Marcus Semien 44
Randal Grichuk 23
Cavan Biggio 13
Rowdy Tellez 5
Jared Hoying -100
George Springer -100
Danny Jansen -100
Riley Adams -100
Santiago Espinal -100

Just look at that bottom there. Semien is awful there and Grichuk and down are truly putrid. Nice numbers by Reese though!
Nigel - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#401135) #
Thank you Kasi - that's very interesting.
92-93 - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#401136) #
Semien is hitting .234/.284/.457 since June 2nd. Ebb and flow of a season, sure, but Springer will be back leading off soon.
Kasi - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#401137) #
Yeah thats not great for sure but it is still nearly a .750 OPS which isn't the worst thing ever. If he has another good game or two it pushes things back close to season numbers. I forgot what people were saying but isn't he on a 4-5 game streak of extra base hits? (aka I'm sure those numbers are quite a bit worse if you cut the last 4 games out)

Up from June 2 to present:
237 .299 .454 .323 103

Cut out the Orioles series:
.215 .284 .430 .308 93

I don't disagree with you that Springer will be back there eventually, but it does seem like Semien is heating back up again.
uglyone - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#401141) #
I would have to check but I imagine Semien received the biggest Dunedin stadium boost of all jays.
hypobole - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#401142) #
Something from the KG chat today

Do teams ever use some sort of in-game algorithmic recommendation tool for selecting which reliever to bring in to a game?

Kevin Goldstein: Yup Many charts are supplied to managers/coaching staffs before each series.

John Northey - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#401143) #
Excellent question uglyone. Checking BR splits...

Jays 'Home': 276/345/483
Jays Away: 254/314/422

Top OPS home
1000+: Vlad (1.348!), Kirk (1.115 over 7 games)
900s: Springer (7 G)
800s: Semien, Bo, Palacios (20 PA), Hernandez (all 850-899)
700s: Gurriel, Grichuk, Espinal, McGuire
600s: Biggio
500s: Jansen, Tellez, Panik
worse: Adams, Davis

1000's: none
900s: Vlad, McGuire
800s: Semien, Hernandez
700s: Grichuk, Biggio, Bo, Panik
600s: Espinal, Tellez
500s: Gurriel, Davis, Kirk, Jansen
using the wrong end of the bat: Palacios, Adams, Springer (0 for 7), Hoying

My quick eyeball test says it is Vlad who is helped the most by the so called 'home' parks. Semien is in the 800s for OPS in both home and away.
scottt - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#401146) #
First you cross the names of the guys who aren't available, than you put an asterix next to the guys you'd like to rest.
The most obvious thing is the platoon advantage.
So the next thing you do is decide where to use your lefties.
If you wait too long, they'll bring pinch hitters.
Next the best relievers are reserved for the last innings.
You keep the long relief guys rested in case the starter doesn't last.

There's really not that much to play with here.
The hardest part is pulling the starter when he's done and not waiting to bring the first relief guys with 2 or 3 guys on bases. It's a game of outs and the easiest outs are the bottom of the lineup. If the starter gives you an extra inning but only gets 3 outs out of the last 5 and flipped it to the top, maybe he didn't get you that much.

Now, take Castro. What do you think the algorithms will tell you?
Can he go all sliders and strike out the heart of the Rays rotation?
Or should you go with Mayza even if it's 3 left on right batters?
Can you predict when Chatwood won't find the strike zone?

It's not that easy, but the manager will have a plan for the last 4 inning before the game starts.
The real key part is having a plan on how to pitch to each guy.
We get the Rays over the weekend. Franco is 3 for 22 with 1 homerun.
I'd watch all those AB carefully cause they won't be much of a scouting report.

John Northey - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#401147) #
Hmm... just hit me this is the 2nd time the Jays have had more than 1 home park in a season. 1989 they started in Exhibition Stadium, then moved to the SkyDome. May 28th was the last game in Extortion Stadium (as many nicknamed it due to how terrible a park it was) - a walk off win via a George Bell home run. Was there with my family, it was the last game my grandmother went to (heavy smoker and once it was in the dome she couldn't go anymore as smoking was no longer allowed). The Dome's first game was June 5th (a loss). And of course this year with 2 parks already and a third likely by September who knows how weird the home stats will look.

I am also reminded of the Expos who had a few years where they played around a dozen games a year in Puerto Rico. Any other teams that played in minor league/oddball parks for more than 2 or 3 games?
uglyone - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#401149) #
Specifically Dunedin I was wondering about John!
uglyone - Monday, June 28 2021 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#401150) #
Dunedin OPS

Vladdy 1.418
Bichette .930
Teoscar .918
Semien .914

Buffalo OPS

Vladdy 1.225
Semien .857
Bichette .804
Teoscar .765

Road OPS

Vladdy .945
Semien .843
Teoscar .830
Bichette .746

Huh. Turns out Semien was helped the LEAST by Dunedin. Oopsie.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 29 2021 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#401156) #
Yeah uglyone - I figured there weren't enough Buffalo games to hide a big Dunedin effect just yet.  Plus I didn't feel like pulling out stats to that degree.  :) 

No question Vlad has taken full advantage of the two home parks and I bet he does the same when he gets to SkyDome again.  Should be fun to see him hitting various targets in that park - 5th deck, hotel, etc. 

For oddities though, Vlad's best home run (465 feet)) is only 9th for the Jays since 2015 - coincidentaly he has 9 of the top 88 listed (all 440+ feet).  #1 is a surprise from 2015 and was playing in Japan this year (474 feet).  Full Blue Jays leaderboard.  A current Jay is #2 on the list, and it ain't Vlad.

Found an interesting site for longest home runs.  Two ex-Jays on the list of 500+ foot home runs.  Glenallen Hill with a 500 foot one in 2000 (landed on a building across the street at Wrigley).  Cecil Fielder in 1991 502 feet   #1 is Babe Ruth at 575 feet in 1921 - measured from home to where it landed in Detroit.
Orioles at Blue Jays, June 24-27 | 266 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.