Seattle is a very odd team. In all situations they they bat .217 with a .671 OPS, .163 ISO (not too bad in power) and a 90 WRC+. That is like a slightly different Gurriel so far this year. However in high leverage they hit .278 with a .823 OPS and .191 ISO and 130 WRC+. They basically turn into Semien/Teoscar in those situations. It's completely bizarre and its why this smoke and mirrors thing has worked for them so far. Hopefully we can break that this week.

If Seattle lacks stars, they've been fortunate also to lack black holes - or at least, the worst guys they've run out there are all demoted (Kelenic) or injured (Haggerty, White). There's a lot of meh, but not a lot of terrible on their roster.

Haniger is good, but he's had health issues. He didn't play last year.
The Mariners are last in average and OBP in the AL. 9th in home runs.

They are a few guys on the IL, but that's not really the story.
Their normal lineup has currently 5 left bats and 2 more on the bench.
So, they'll figure at least 4 left bats starting every game and the Jays are going with 3 lefties.
The bad news is that they'll be able to switch in more lefties when the Jays go to the pen, but that just mean an opportunity to use Saucedo. They will also start lefties in 2 of the games which hopefully means no Panik in this series.

Their pen does not look better than Toronto's.
Closer and setup guys have high ERAs, but they have quite a few middle relief guys with low ERAs.

Hector Santiago's glove was confiscated for being full of sticky stuff which he claims is rosin.
It doesn't sound like he will be suspended.

Hmm... I get curious (yeah, bad habit). sOPS+ ranking in league for Jays vs Mariners.
CA: Jays 19th - 90 Mariners 30th - 55
1B: Jays 1st - 171 Mariners 28th - 68
2B: Jays 1st - 138 Mariners 26th - 77
3B: Jays 20th - 88 Mariners 21st - 83
SS: Jays 5th - 133 Mariners 11th - 106
LF: Jays 23rd - 85 Mariners 21st - 89
CF: Jays 20th - 87 Mariners 23rd - 82
RF: Jays 3rd - 133 Mariners 17th - 91
DH: Jays 11th - 101 Mariners 9th - 106

So the Mariners are ahead of the jays at DH (5 points), and LF (4 points). Jays win by over 25 points at CA, 1B (over 100!), 2B, SS, RF. On offense there is no comparison.

Starters: Jays 16th 4.02 ERA Seattle 20th 4.58 ERA
Relievers: Jays 11th 3.85 ERA Seattle 19th 4.20 ERA

Again, no contest. Jays have a far stronger pitching staff both in starters and relievers before factoring in the insane minor league parks the Jays are using as home parks (launching pads). Seattle has an overall ERA+ of 93 vs the Jays 111. Seattle has an OPS+ of 91 vs the Jays 113. How these teams have almost the same record is insane. Seattle has played 3 more games and gone 1-2 in them. Pythagorean W-L: 44-32 Jays, 35-44 Seattle. So Seattle has been extremely lucky to get 41 wins and the Jays a bit unlucky to only be at 40. Hopefully these next few games will fix the records for each a bit.

Seattle also strikes out a lot. 26.6 K%. Only Tampa and Detroit are higher.

256 players have had 150 PA's. Only 1 is running a 40% K rate - Taylor Trammell. Tom Murphy at 35.4% is also Top 10.

Also noticed the flip side. Other than the Astros, who have the lowest K rate for the 3rd year in a row (and haven't been over 20% since 2016), only 1 other team is under 22%. That would be the Toronto Blue Jays.

Wow, surprising hypobole. Never would've guessed the Jays were doing that well for K's given 7 guys have 50+ K's (on pace for over 100 easily in all cases). For comparison the 2015 division champion Jays only had 3 guys over 100 K's (Bautista, Martin, and Donaldson).

The number of times hitters strikes out has changed drastically and we need to adjust our standards accordingly. The average AL player now strikes out 154 times in 650 PApps. Guys like Bo Bichette and Randal Grichuk actually strike out less often than the average AL player. Vlad Guerrero, on pace to strike out 118 times, strikes out less frequently than any other Jays regular and less frequently than most AL regulars.

Of 81 qualified AL hitters, Guerrero ranks 60th in frequency of strikeouts. Teoscar Hernandez (15th) and Marcus Semien (31st) are the only Jays above the league average (Biggio would be 12th if he had enough PApps to qualify). Every other hitter on the team strikes out less than the AL average.

Game done changed, kids.

Jays just traded for Cory Dickerson.

Not sure why.

Unless they're trading away a grichuk or gurriel for pitching.

Basically Cory is a league averagish bat with passable defense in LF. Some platoon split but not much anymore. Not enough to expect a significantly above average bat even if used only against RHP.

Ah so Panik is gone and we get a reliever too.

INF Joe Panik & a minor league pitcher go from #BlueJays to #Marlins in trade for RHP Adam Cimber and Of Corey Dickerson per @JonHeyman

— Hazel Mae (@thehazelmae) June 29, 2021

Any trade that gets Panik off the roster is a good one.

Cimber = low velocity no-K reliever who has managed to put up above average numbers in relatively full duty the past 4yrs

They've traded for Adam Cimber, who immediately becomes the team's second best relief pitcher. Dickerson's just part of the package. He's on the IL and won't be able to play for a few weeks at least.

Trade hinges on who minor league pitcher is. If it's some flier, then fine. Cimber and Dickerson do have some value and make the Jays better but only marginally.

It's probably the lack of walks, relatively speaking, that made Cimber attractive.

This is exactly the kind of deal they should be doing, and why it was always silly to claim they couldn't address the bullpen until the trade deadline.

yeah Cimber is attractive, even if the spectre of a HR-friendly home park ruining his low hr/fb rate scares me a bit.

still - good reliever acquired for nothing. something they should have done a few weeks ago and should do again very soon.

Dickerson is hurt and costs a fair bit so it seems like a bit of a salary dump from Marlins.

Dickerson, once he's healthy, is certainly an upgrade on Tellez. The ballpark in Miami has simply been killing him these last two years, so he should be happy to get out of Florida.

This moves makes sense on several fronts (bullpen, balance to the lineup). Dickerson seems roughly equivalent to Grichuk and Gurriel (slightly better plate discipline but less defense than Grichuk). Thumbs up.

According to RotoWire as of June 22, Dickerson was to remain in a walking boot for three weeks (July 13 by my count) and then "re-evaluated" so it may be a while yet before we see him.

I think Glevin is right that this is primarily a salary dump by Miami and I'd hope the Jays will give up a lesser prospect as a result of taking Dickerson's salary.

From what I've read, Mattingly seemed pretty pessimistic about Dickerson's recovery so far in a recent press conference. Given Miami is going to miss the playoffs and there seem to be questions about Dickerson's ability to contribute right before the end of the season, I suspect they just wanted his money off the books.

Nice little move by Atkins. LH bat, bullpen help, Panik removal all addressed., although Panik could have just been DFA'd.

Taking on money should help offset the prospect cost, but it may not be as cheap as people are hoping. Atkins should have had to overpay to cut out the competition before the buyers market was set.

this may open a door for Kevin Smith.

Andrew McInvale is the prospect going to Miami. An overachieving 37th round RHP.

I feel like one more domino has to eventually fall. Dickerson, when he is healthy, will give them five outfielders which seems like one too many.

Cimber will have to maintain his HR prevention skills to offset his other peripherals. He and Romano will be in a kind of competition to see who can hold out the longest before giving up their first dinger.

It sounds like Miami is paying most of the difference in salaries for Dickerson, whose injury is a bit murky - he's out till after the all star break at least, it seems. 

Panik is likely part of the salary equation and a stopgap for Miami.  But I agree with the consensus here, addition by subtraction.  But given that it's not a salary dump, McInvale seems like a pretty low cost.  He racks up Ks and is doing well in NH, in just his first full season, so I'm sure Miami sees a big league relief arm in him. 

I like Cimber more than Mike Green - he's a submariner, which leads to fewer Ks, he doesn't give up many HRs, he throws strikes, and he's controllable.  He's a middle reliever for sure, but it's nice to have different looks out of the pen, and as a fan, it's fun to watch.  I always loved Mark Eichorn as a kid. 

And Dickerson should be easy to work into the lineup vs. lefties.  He's a lot better than Gurriel in LF. 

Thumbs up.  The team hasn't played well enough to warrant a bigger move yet, but more marginal improvements to the bullpen should help us figure out if we are for real.  If we fall further back, I hope we the FO is aggressive in selling off rentals that they don't see coming back.    

Atkins has a knack for sending players fans wanted to have DFAed (but manager kept putting in the lineup, e.g Panik) and getting something back for them...remember the Jays trading away Jesse Chavez at the trade deadline and getting something back for him?

I do hope they bring up Kevin Smith to play some 3B, with Biggio playing the bulk of it.

Dickerson has huge platoon splits. It's a really nice bat to have in the order and I bet he can run a bit, once his foot is healed. It's a good fit even if he doesn't play this month.

Cimber is a middle relief guy, but he's a sidearmer. It's nice to have something different out of the pen. Mostly a low walk, groundballer  who doesn't strike anyone out. He's just hitting arbitration.

Losing Panik--who has dropped the ball way too many times--is an added bonus. 

Both will need a 40 roster spot. Panik will only free one. DFA incoming.
Maybe they bring back Tellez for now

Five outfielders is necessary when the everyday lineup uses one of the outfielders at DH. It made no sense having two infielders on a 3 man bench, one of which was a good defensive 2B who couldn't handle SS/3B and had zero business making starts at 1B/3B/DH.

One of Gurriel, Biggio, and Dickerson is now the backup 1B, which is fine. At least until they trade for Freeman.

Since they're getting an outfielder, I think they DFA Davis.

The biggest winner of the trade might be Santiago Espinal.

There's little competition now to keep him off the 26-man roster unless the Jays choose to go without a true utility man on the bench because Semien can cover SS.

I wonder if the Jays put Dickerson on the 60 day IL. It would mean though that he is not eligible until August 15th.

Cimber has 3 years of control, being arb eligible after this season. Seems like a no lose deal to me as nothing was lost and a decent reliever may have been gained.

Five outfielders is necessary when the everyday lineup uses one of the outfielders at DH.

Yeah, I guess you're right. And we're talking just half a season of juggling at-bats, if even that, based on Dickerson's health. Biggio's flexibility made possible carrying two infielders which would have been fine had one not been Panik, a very poor fit on this team.

Panik was used quite a bit.
He got into 15 games in April, 9 in May, 18 in June and the month wasn't over.
He played a lot when Biggio was out but somehow was still playing so Biggio could go in the outfield.
There was no reason to play him except to get another left bat in the order. He even played first base.

I'm sticking to my guns with Espinal. We only have 3 plus defenders on the roster per OAA. Semien at 2nd has been excellent, Vlad at 1st and Espinal at 3rd.

Espinal hasn't gotten many opportunities to play, but made the most of them with a terrific June. Yeah, his BABIP is crazy high, and showed no power. But he also walked almost twice as often as he struck out.

Checked the other day and Smith has played surprisingly little 3rd base in Buffalo. I'd give him everyday reps there and play Espinal at 3rd here as often as possible. Then make the decision.

Cimber has 3 years of control, being arb eligible after this season. Seems like a no lose deal to me as nothing was lost and a decent reliever may have been gained.

I'm surprised that Cimber comes with so much control.

He was at one time more highly valued, as he was half the package Cleveland acquired for Francisco Mejia along with Brad Hand when they needed bullpen help. Cimber was a 27-year-old rookie that year.

It looks like his stock has fallen though as it appears Cleveland might have planned to non-tender him last fall as the Marlins picked him up in November for literally nothing. He may have been Super Two eligible as I see he's making 925k without 3 years of service time.

I'm just happy to have a new look in the pen and the major league experience and control are both gravy.

Checked the other day and Smith has played surprisingly little 3rd base in Buffalo. I'd give him everyday reps there and play Espinal at 3rd here as often as possible. Then make the decision.

The biggest thing working against Kevin Smith is his need for a new 40-man roster spot.

The Jays will either have to start cutting relievers to free up space for anyone else or start cutting previous Rule 5 guys like Josh Palacios/Otto Lopez/Elvis Luciano.

They also have been playing fast-and-loose with 60-day IL assignments and have a ton of guys stashed there who will have to be readded eventually or be cut themselves.

This looks like the Jays taking on Dickerson's contract in order to get Cimber for nothing. He comes with 3 more years of control as mentioned, so to get him for Panik and a minor leaguer I never knew existed is a decent first move to help the pen.

I mentioned in the other thread that seeing Panik being spoon fed so much playing time when he hasn't been good in years was infuriating to watch because Espinal has always been right there and is better than him at practically everything. Thankfully, Atkins took the toy away from Montoyo. Whether Dickerson contributes or not is really irrelevant. Atkins doesn't like to trade prospects and he took on money rather than giving one up. If Dickerson contributes anything, it would be icing on the cake. Getting rid of Panik (who was badly hurting this team due to Montoyo) and adding a reliable (albeit risky due to low K rate) RP should be an improvement. Not a big one, but incremental improvement will help. There should be more moves to come.

This is a great move on all levels. Cimber is definitely a worthwhile bullpen piece, and Dickerson is a good fit as a left-handed outfield bat (who could make Grichuk or possibly Gurriel available in a later trade). Cimber might be worth some higher-leverage opportunities right now when we face righty-heavy lineups. And Espinal is simply better than Panik, so we gain from taking Panik out of Montoyo's toolkit.

As for clearing a 40-man spot, I think we'll probably DFA one of the excess relievers - someone like Beasley or Bergen.

"Andrew McInvale is the prospect going to Miami. An overachieving 37th round RHP."

A non prospect really. 24 YO reliever in AA with control issues. No downside to this trade. Jays get a major league reliever and some OF depth for just money and Panik.

Getting rid of Panik (who was badly hurting this team due to Montoyo) and adding a reliable (albeit risky due to low K rate) RP should be an improvement.

I agree it was infuriating Panik get so much playing time and I'm happy to see him leave town.

But modern baseball doesn't operate like the Billy Beane-Art Howe feud in Moneyball.

Panik was on the roster and was getting that much playing time with full support of the front office. Likely at least in part because the front office decided to invest 1.85 million in him when they gave him a roster spot in the spring.

i'm not sure Dickerson counts as OF depth, really.

he's limited to exclusively LF nowadays, and is only ok there....and he seems to be seriously injured with a murky sounding foot issue at the moment.

Decent bench bat, though, if Rowdy can't turn it around.

I wonder if the Jays put Dickerson on the 60 day IL.

This makes a lot of sense. If he's in a walking boot until mid-July, he likely won't be game-ready until mid-August anyway. They could even wait until the rosters expand (by two spots) on Sept. 1st to add him. Otherwise, they'll need to drop someone healthy from the 40 to create a space for an injured player, which is not ideal. And they'll need another spot on the 40-man roster when Kirk returns, hopefully in the next week.

"Thankfully, Atkins took the toy away from Montoyo."

That's been the narrative because Panik has played far too much, but Montoyo didn't buy the the toy or have the authority to keep or get rid of the toy. Montoyo and Atkins talk regularly. It's plausible, and actually probable, Panik was given the playing time lately to make an ultimate decision on him.

Just glad it was the correct decision, although it seemed to take an eternity to make it.

(From the last thread)

Any other teams that played in minor league/oddball parks for more than 2 or 3 games?

Maybe 10 or 12 years ago, Tampa Bay hosted a regular season series versus Toronto at the Disney Wide World of Sports in Orlando. (Where the Braves formerly held Spring Training and the same complex as the NBA Bubble last season.) Not sure if other games were played there. Tropicana Field must really be awful.

I don't think Dickerson will need much rehabbing.
He's mostly just a DH and he can probably take batting practice with the boot.

Davis is an obvious guys to DFA.
Then a catcher.
Then Beasley. Bergen. Allgeyer. Palacios. It starts to get a bit tough.

Some guys might just go directly from the 60 IL to DFA.
Milone. Edwards Jr. Cole.

The Expos played a bunch of games in Puerto Rico the last few years.
Note that Sahlen Field is a major league park. It was the first retro-classic park built with the intent of scoring an expansion team between 1988 and 1994. They lost to Colorado and Florida. It was built with the exact same dimensions as then Royals Stadium.
It has the highest AAA seating capacity (16 600).

The facilities are not up to major leagues though. The players will tell you about that.
I've always thought that it was pitcher friendly for a AAA park. 

I'm sure it's POSSIBLE to take batting practice while wearing a walking boot.

But I think you are underestimating how much your foot is involved in MLB hittimg mechanics or underappreciating how awkward a walking boot is in the context of athletics.

These moves to improve our team may make us buyers at the trade deadline.

Dickerson sounds like a DFA guy the Jays took just to get the reliever. His 131 OPS+ in 2019 seems ages ago now with a 91 last year and a 94 so far this year. In his age 32 season and a free agent post season his only asset is that he hits left handed, so the Jays might store him on the 60 day IL until more happens (an OF traded) - I could see this opening up space for one of Gurriel/Grichuk/Hernandez being traded and then Tellez as DH until Dickerson is healthy enough to play. But that is it.

Adam Cimber is the big piece - but low K/9 (5.5) so not a super-reliever. More a 'this helps' piece. Lifetime 118 ERA+, 0.6 HR/9 (nice), 2.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9. Given the crazy walk figures from most of the pen that decent BB/9 will be heaven sent.

Might not be a whole lot to buy. One good high leverage reliever.
Maybe a hard throwing lefty, if Borucki is not back in force. 

Also - don't forget to vote for the All-Star Game - lets see a few Jays start. Vlad, Semien both leading, Bo has a slim shot at SS, Teoscar & Grichuk are among the OF finalists. Also toss a vote Freddie Freeman's way - his parents are both Canadian and he played for team Canada. For other positions where no Jays are qualified I vote for the guy who is with a team that might not have other reps thus opening slots for more Jays potentially :)

We do need 40 man spots, but I see no crunch there ... just means DFAing one of Davis / Beasely / Bergen / Saucedo  / Zeuch  - you guys would no doubt disagree with me on a name our two, but none would be a meaningful loss. 

I wouldn't, but I imagine you could even make a for DFAing someone like Tellez.

Travis Bergen is the player to be DFA'd.

Surprised the DFA was Travis Bergen.

The Jays seem higher on Jeremy Beasley than the fanbase is.

It's possible Bergen's last appearance as a Jay was that horrific May 23rd loss against TB where Chatwood imploded and Bergen relieved him in the Top of the 9th ahead 4-3 with the bases loaded, only to walk three more himself to lose 6-4.

The ballpark factor has definitely got my attention. Over his career Dickerson, like most players, has hit better at home than on the road. But not in Miami. LoanDepot Park or whatever they're calling it these days is a tough place to hit, and it's been especially tough for him. Dickerson's hit .249/.296/.341 these last two years at home. He's hit .267/.331/.427 away from home during the same period. He's hit 11 2b and 7 HRs on the road, 6 2b and 2 HR at home. The change of scenery will surely do him good. (Incidentally, he's positively raked at the Rogers Centre, although that had to have been what he was a younger person.)

Bergen throws mostly just a fastball.
Beasley has a splitter. It looks like a work in progress, but they love having different pitches, arm angles, etc.

I'm quite surprised it's not Davis, but I suppose they're happy with the effort from Davis, if not the results.
Bergen was horrifyingly bad at a key moment and his peripherals aren't very good.
Only pitched 2.2 innings in the minors?

There is definitely no crunch, jerjapan. It exists only on this site. The Jays have at least 10 guys that could be dropped from the 40 today and the future of the franchise would look no different. Sure, one of them may turn into a useful reliever or bench player, but they are the very definition of fungible.

As for Tellez, it would make sense for him to be Panik's replacement, at least until Kirk and Jansen are both healthy. Might as well carry a LHB that can give Vlad the occasional inning/day off defensively and PH for Espinal.

Bergen makes sense to me. Has been bad this year but really has looked bad the past few years in his brief stints in majors and minors.

I think Tellez and Davis were optioned only 7 days ago and there's still a 10 day minimum before being recall-able, no?

Good point, Steve02. Otto Lopez, come on down? Or does Cimber replace Panik until Tellez is eligible and they roll with a 2-man bench?

FG has a breakdown of the trade, but also the "Learning and Developing a Pitch" series returns there. Jordan Romano's slider is one of the 3 covered. Interesting read.

Does this setup a Gurriel trade for pitching?

"Marlins Manager Don Mattingly says Corey Dickerson will be in a walking boot for 3 weeks total then reevaluated. Sounds like he’s out quite a while."

- @craigmish, who broke the news of the trade for the Miami Herald, on June 22nd

Dickerson was one of those annoying Rays that always seemed to come up with big hits against the Jays.

Pretty much every batter on the Rays seems to come up with a big hit against the Jays. ( When they're not taking walks.)

My gut says Gurriel is going as part of a package for something good. Or that lots of teams have been asking about him (he has a great contract) so the Jays want the safety valve just in case. His defense in LF has been 'meh' - a -0.1 lifetime UZR/150, 2.1 this year. In 2018 he was great on defense and got a gold glove but it looks like you can have fluky years on defense as that year stands out from the rest of his career. Gurriel has been better on defense - 0.8 UZR/150, but not 'wow' by any stretch. So on defense the two would be a wash. On offense it is pretty much a tie (Gurriel 114 lifetime OPS+, 85 this year vs Dickerson 116 lifetime, 94 this year)

Does Gurriel have a lot of market value? He certainly has an easily tradeable contract. After that, I think things get murky with Gurriel. He's almost 28 - so its hard to project development. But, he's basically only played two full seasons in the majors so maybe there's some room for development? Up to his demotion in May of 2019 he was a replacement level player again. After he came back from the minors through last year's shortened season (a bit less than a full season's worth of games) he looked like he might be an above average regular 3-4 WAR player). Through almost half a season this year and he's a replacement level player. After watching him since he arrived in 2018 I really have no clue which version of Gurriel is the real one. I tend to a more negative view of him as the inability to take a walk, poor defence and poor base running make me think the the sum of the parts will never be that good. But, if you take the opposite view, I would understand. I suspect that there would be a team willing to take a gamble on the upside - I'm just not sure that they would give you big value for him.

Hector Santiago gets a 10 day suspension for substance in his glove.

Does that mean the Mariners will be playing with a 25 roster?

If the Jays took a financial hit in this trade, it is probably not much. Miami probably appreciates every $ saved.

The only question is opportunity cost - whether they could’ve used the $n million of Dickerson’s $8.5M salary they’re eating to buy something even better. Thumbs up.

It's a down year for Gurriel. I don't see a point of trading him unless you're getting a top pitching prospect.
Dickerson cannot play right now and will be gone when the year is over.
He is also terrible against left handed pitching. He's just a good bench bat.
Blue Jays outfielders have not been immune to injuries and this will only get worse over time.

Can Dickerson play 1B when Vladdy get a DH day? He's never played 1B.

Kirk and Jansen both playing in AAA tonight.

Gurriel has 9.2 innings at 1st this year, spread over 3 games.

Biggio I thought had more, only 3 innings there this year. Played 33 innings there back in 2019.

No need to panik about backup 1B.

Playing 3B across the diamond tonight will be another guy who historically is a much better hitter on the road than at home that would fit well on the Jays roster with his stellar D and LHB. It's a shame he has a player option that is activated by being traded, because it wouldn't take much to get him.

Davis must be back within 10 days because he replaces the injured Dickerson, which means the Jays played the last 2 games with a short roster after Manoah dropped his appeal.

Ray gave Pete Walkers pitch clicker quite the workout in the 1st.

Seattle has a top 3 bullpen so I'm hoping the Jays can get a couple more runs off Flaxen. He's bent so far but has managed not to break. (2 deep fly balls very close to home runs plus a lot of other runners left on base)

Piña Powered Lourdes and his Tag-Teammate are ready for the Main Event.

Sigh I guess I should be happy that Biggio and Grichuk managed to get a single run. That's better than usual from them.

Yeah there it went. This team and its crappy situational hitting infuriate me.

Just need the right hitters up in those situations!

Looks like I picked a good time to tune into the game.

What a clutch hit from Bichette, it’s a shame these runs don’t really count since they happened before the 9th/extras :)

Have the Jays ever had a player whose helmet falls off as much as Jonathan Davis?

96 WRC in high leverage (14th in MLB), 111 WRC in all situations. (2nd in MLB). It has very little to do with 9th innings. (although that doesn't help Toronto's record in 1 run games and extra innings games)

Semien with some situational hitting.

Glad to see it. It's not like I want the Jays to have this issue or think it is a skill and something they will be bad at going forward. With Springer back I think they have it in them to run away with the best offence in baseball. It's just tiring for me to have seen so games slip away when just one hit would have won it.

But you keep blaming the offense for losses where we score lots of runs.

Jays high leverage: 253 PA

Jays low/medium leverage: 2620 PA

Call me crazy but I will take the latter and hope for bullpen improvements.

So if an offence scores 5 runs than I should just give them a pass for everything? That doesn't make much sense to me. Situational hitting matters to wins and losses. If a game is say 6-6 going into 9th and on and the offence goes 3 innings and don't score a run and we lose I guess should just blame the bullpen right? They should have held the other team to zero longer?

If six runs aren't enough to win, you have much bigger problems than situational hitting.

Tampa lost so if we hold on we move within 4.5gms of them.

Sox holding on to a 1 run lead in the 7th still.

That's baseball. Come back wins, walk off wins, etc. They happen.

Lets compare us against Boston, a team many have likely think have overachieved.

Record when they've given up 6 runs.
Boston: 7-14
Toronto: 2-20

Seems to me that sorta is a big reason they're like 6.5 games in front of us. Hopefully we can make them up.

Yes, Boston has overachieved.

I'm no expert , but I took a look at pitch values. From what I see, our batters have been the best in baseball against curveballs. Really good against fastballs. OK vs changeups, and just below average vs cutters.

The most problematic pitches for our hitters have been sliders. We rank 18th in baseball vs that pitch. And since a lot of the higher leverage relievers in baseball have really good to great sliders and throw that pitch a lot, it may partially explain why we have trouble late in tight games.

And if those 8 wins (I miscounted and its likely soon to be 9 after tonight against KC) make the difference between them winning the division and not getting the wild card matchup they'll be happy enough to take that. Better to be lucky than be good and all.

My rule of thumb has always been if you score 5 runs and lose, the pitching didn't do their jobs. If your pitching holds the other team to 3 or fewer runs, then the hitting didn't do their jobs. Anything in between, meh, just one of those games.
Call me an optimist, but I prefer not to concentrate on a team's record in close games, but instead look at the team's "loss record" of close vs. not close losses. If your heart is constantly being broken, it means you are *almost* winning a lot of games and the team is very close to having a dramatically better record. Might not matter to the standings in the end, but it beats the heck out of something like 2019 and just watching the team get flat out beat down over and over again.

I would actually expect a lineup as young as this one to fail to distinguish themselves as situational hitters. You just have to live with it, and let their games develop.

And anyway - the shortcomings with the situational pitching have surely been much more costly.

The announcers were really going on and on about the Jays having 4 guys with 50 RBI's already so I checked BR First half stuff... going by most runs scored (figuring those are the most likely years to have a ton of RBI guys in the first half)

2003: top run year for Jays, Delgado 97 RBI, Wells 84, next highest 45. Wow.
2015: 3 guys with 50+, 2 at 60, none with a 900 OPS
1999: 3 guys with 50+, Delgado 77, Wells 70, Fernandez 59
2000: Delgado 80, Batista 72, 2 others over 50, Cruz Jr just 3 short
1993: 3 guys with 50+, 2 over 60, Olerud at 395 for Avg.
1987: 3 over 50, Bell with 76 leading the way.
1998: just 1 over 50 (Delgado of course) but 3 in the 2nd half (this year the Jays had issues in the first half, then gelled in the 2nd so of course the manager was fired the next spring, ace traded, chaos non-stop).

After that it tends to be just 1 guy at most with 50+ and this is by the All-Star break, not game 81

2021: 4 at/over 50 (Vlad, Bo, Grichuk, Semien), 1 at 40+ (Hernandez at 47), then drops to Gurriel at 29, Biggio at 18, and Panik at 11. Springer has 7 in 10 games. So with 11 games until the break odds are Hernandez will join the 50+ club and Vlad will get to 70+, but unlikely to break Delgado's pre-ASG Jay record of 97.

Btw, Jays at 396 runs after 77 games = 5.14 runs per game this year. 2003 was 894 runs in 162 = 5.52 runs per game. So a solid year, but not likely to break the Jays record unless Springer really helps jump the offense in the 2nd half (or the catchers keep hitting, or whatever). When 5 runs scored is a below average game for the team's offense you know things are going well. 1987 (thought of as an enhanced ball year), 1993 (WAMCO plus Henderson), 2000*, 1999*, 2015 (the BED team=Bautista/Encarnacion/Donaldson - sadly didn't hit in that order or as DEB) and 2003* all scored over 833 runs (the Jays current pace) but a few more of these 9+ run games and things could shift quickly. * for the years Steroids were rampant through the game (Canseco, Mr. Roid, was here for 1998 as was Clemens).

Kirk and Jansen both went 0-2 tonight with 2 walks and a strikeout for Buffalo. ESPN has the Jays facing 4 LHP in the next 5 games and in likely at least 7 of the remaining 11 games before the break, so it would be good timing if one of them is ready soon.

ESPN has the Jays facing 4 LHP in the next 5 games... it would be good timing if one of them is ready soon.

In theory, I suppose. McGuire does have more hits against LHP (9-19) than Jansen (2-36), Kirk (4-17), and Adams (2-15) combined. As ever, he's holding his own.

As ever or for the nonce?

Boston has a strong April, Tampa had a strong May.
Right now the strength of schedule is helping the Jays.

Gurriel hitting in the bottom of the lineup makes for a much better offense than having Panik there.

The thing with the RBIs is that if the whole lineup produces, the top guys will get lots of ABs.

McGuire is 2/13 with 5 strikeouts and 1 walk "against the sinister fellows" this year after going 0/17 vs. LHP last year.

The thing with the RBIs is that if the whole lineup produces, the top guys will get lots of ABs.

Not according to Buck; the ability to accrue RBI's is something either naturally ingrained in a player "He's a run producer!" or learned while becoming a "veteran presence" - they don't get rattled at the plate with RISP the way non-veterans and non-run-producers do.

Also, from they way he talks about Semien, the ability to lead the league in plate appearances is also somehow an individual skill.

While I'm on the subject, I find myself almost constantly thinking, "Gee, thanks for interrupting your story for long enough to tell us to tell us what happened on the field fifteen seconds ago, Grandpa." It's almost as if they have someone with him waving a sign to bring him back to the game he's supposed to be calling whenever he starts to wander off into Buck Blunderland.

McGuire is 2/13 with 5 strikeouts and 1 walk

Yes. What the hell was I looking at?

It was a pleasure listening to Shulman calling the Canada Bball FIBA qualifier last night while flipping back and forth with the nonsense we have to bear with during the jays broadcast.

Certainly not your own table from a few days ago, which was where McGuire's struggles vs. lefties (sample size alert) and success vs. righties was noticed.

Kirk was playing in extended spring for awhile so he may be ready sooner, but then again he was the DH last night so maybe the glove isn't ready.

Make sure to catch the youtube game tonight then.

Pat is actually worse than Buck with regard to telling us how good a defense is based on the number of errors made and who is a good RBI guy and who isn't.

Expecting Jansen up ASAP because of his defense. Adams needs more time to figure out what to do at the plate.
They can keep Kirk down until he starts to rake while they figure out a trade involving a catcher.
We're getting close to the trade deadline and the wire will heat up pretty soon.

They have to stick with McGuire playing most of the games against RHP now.
I don't see any alternative. He's caught even Ryu without issues.

But Pat's just trying to impress Buck.

I tend to give Pat and Buck more leeway than many here, but last night I was driving, and so listening to their radio broadcast, and wow, it is quite bad. I'm sure it's difficult to do the simulcast, but basic items, like not saying what the score is after an inning (I tuned in after Semien drove in 2 runs, but had no idea what the score was), describing the play, reminding listeners of the count...

I'm somewhat sympathetic, as I think it really is a different job to call the game on the radio, so this is on Rogers more than Pat and Buck, but there are also some obvious areas for improvement.

I'm somewhat sympathetic, as I think it really is a different job to call the game on the radio, so this is on Rogers more than Pat and Buck, but there are also some obvious areas for improvement.

It absolutely is on Rogers. There's gotta be people smarter than me working there, but my line of reasoning for how this was allowed to happen is: Buck and Pat struggle when NOT asked to perform the dual duties of TV and radio game-calling, so obviously the quality of both broadcasts is going to suffer. How much can this hurt the Jays? Not much, honestly. Hardcore fans won't stop watching the games. They might stop listening to them on radio, but will they cancel their Sirius subscription over it? Doubt it. As far as casual fans, most of them are too dumb about baseball to know how bad Buck and Pat are on TV, and I don't think anyone's seriously worried about attracting new casual radio listeners, because nobody is signing up for Sirius to listen to Jays games when they're not a hardcore fan. So it looks real stupid from an insider point of view, but it saves a few bucks and probably doesn't really hurt the team as a brand, except with people who won't quit the Jays over it. Bad baseball decision, probably a good business decision though.

Apologies for the stream-of-consciousness narrative, but I assume the conversation at Rogers must've gone something like that.

As a fan, it stinks.

Defense sometimes is valued and other times not valued by the Jays. We discussed this last year.

2019 and prior Teoscar's bat was valued while he had trouble catching the ball. D Fisher was a player that also had defense issues. Last night J Davis PR and stayed in at CF, Teoscar to LF and Springer to RF. I don't think the players complained.

Catcher is very different J Mathis had a nice long career due to his defense. McGuire may have good enough defense to make LH vs RH not count. Then there is personal preference by the pitcher (SP) on who is the C. Jansen may come up or may stay down to work on his hitting. Both Kirk and Jansen have very good bb/k rates and it showed last night with 2 walks each.

92-93 - thanks for reminding me that of course, Dickerson's placement on the IL for the Jays meant the Jays could replace his spot with anyone

About a week away from getting a month's subscription to milb TV, which will allow me to watch the only 6 televised Dunedin games this year, as well as all AAA, AA and some A+ games. All games played are archived and available.

Enough about the promo, and I do not get paid for this advertisement.

All these are radio games. The radio feed is integrated into the TV feed. It works pretty well for a minor league product.

Buck and Pat's issues may be they are either too stupid to remember they're also doing radio, or just don't care and feel their long-winded stories and vapid opinions are far more important than letting radio listeners know what's going on.

I'm guessing Sportsnet really doesn't care much since radio revenues are minuscule, so they just let the boys do their thing.

My prediction of a 4+ WAR season for Semien is starting to look conservative. He's currently on pace for close to 7 WAR. That pace might be unsustainable, but 3.3 WAR at this point in the season is very impressive.

I also called Semien.

Your previous targets you wished the jays didn’t clear out have all been released: Dwight Smith jr and Travis Bergen.

I always listen to the opposing team's feed when watching Jays games on MLB.tv. I can't stand listening to Buck and Pat. Shulman makes a world of difference when he's there instead of one of them. I've always said that if MLB wants to get younger audiences to watch the games, they need fresh blood in the booths. It's not even an age thing, just get people who are passionate about the current game and know how to appeal to what younger people may want to hear. Buck and Pat are the opposite of what I'd want representing my baseball team.

A lot of things have changed in baseball. The 5 man pen for example. On good teams like the 80s Jays there was not much turnover. Henke, Ward, Acker, Eichorn is pretty much it I think. This year we have learned that it has changed. NYY ($) and TB. I don't know if the Jays can be successful. Henke/Ward time and later Osuna with Cecil, Grilli, Biagini, Benoit.

I have seen a few Bauxites hoping A Martin, Groshans, Moreno and K Smith get promoted to the majors this year or next. All are tempting. I know that this FO is going to play them if they come up. They will be brought up to be regulars because they need everyday playing time.

I am curious, but I can wait to see how the above green kids would replace the young veterans in 2022 and 2023. Gruber did it. For Olerud I would say McGriff had to be traded. For Fernandez a very young Alfredo G had to go.

Vlad and Bo could get very expensive when Springer is still here.

The plan was explained by Shapiro/Atkins about waves of prospects.

Personally, I much prefer the way McGuire gives a target in the middle of the plate to Jansen's glove near his knees until the pitcher is well into his delivery. I have no idea if it makes a difference to the pitchers.

I have seen several catchers on other teams doing the double take on low balls.
The idea is to raise the glove as the ball arrives and catch it possibly below the zone but in a way that the ump can't really tell where the ball really was. The result is often that the glove rises before the ball is there so the catcher brings the glove down a second time and brings it back inside the zone without any fluidity. Often enough it looks like they frame a strike into a ball.

Ray seems to struggle if the umps doesn't give him the corners. He seems to be fastball heavy with 2 strikes rather than doing the obvious thing of getting to 2 strikes on fastballs and trying to get the strikeout on the breaking ball. I can't really complain about the result, but it looks like he's making things harder than necessary.

Barnes has a decent fastball. Sitting 97mph for the most part. Just not able to throw it top of the zone properly.
He threw what looked like a cutter at 90mph. Looked pretty straight and hittable. He's supposed to have a splitter but I don't think I saw one.

Saucedo looked tough on lefty but he seemed unwilling to challenge the right handed hitter.

You have to accept that they'll score a lot of runs and leave a ton of runners on bases.
Think hockey game. If they score enough goals, do you care how many shots on goals were blocked?

Josh Donaldson and Lucas Giolito don't seem to be stuck for words:

"Giolito lobbed an expletive-laced response in Donaldson's direction after the slugger appeared to yell, "Not sticky anymore," after a first-inning home run"

"Your previous targets you wished the jays didn’t clear out have all been released"

For sure. Dwight Smith Jr. and Travis Bergen are the only two prospects I have ever supported the Jays retaining. Thank you for highlighting this important information (again).

McGuire has been notably better than the other 3 catchers this year if you look at the pitcher's stats:

McGuire (3.50 ERA, 3.97 RA9, 26% K-rate)
Jansen (4.22 ERA, 4.59 RA9, 24% K-rate)
Kirk (4.02 ERA, 4.69 RA9, 21% K-rate)
Adams (4.09 ERA, 4.25 RA9, 25% K-rate)

McGuire's numbers are Top 10-15 across all MLB regular catchers.

It's very comforting to have someone around to regularly point out one's failings.

That's why mothers-in-law are so widely appreciated.

That's why mothers-in-law are so widely appreciated.

MILs are clutch and anecdotally thrive when the leverage increases.

I'm considering an engraving for my tombstone: "He thought the Jays should have kept Dwight Smith Jr. and Travis Bergen."

I want to be sure to plan my legacy in advance.

In news around the league there are assault allegations against Bauer that are developing and may end up nothing or may end up in criminal charges. That could certainly impact the Dodgers, who are clearly right now the best team in baseball.

In an article about the Jays at the Atlantic https://theathletic.com/2680199/2021/06/29/how-expected-weighted-on-base-average-can-be-used-against-betting-odds-in-mlb-division-futures/ goes through using xwOBA to judge both a team's offense and what the pitching allows and using that to predict what a team is likely to do going forward since xwOBA is a good predicter of how good a team really is versus how lucky/unluck it has been.

That has the Jays as the 6th best team in MLB to date based on underlying xwOBA with an offense of 0.334 (6th) and a pitching/allowed of 0.314 (T12th) for an overall difference of 0.020 (6th). The teams ahead of the Jays, in order by difference, are Dodgers (0.045), Yankees (0.035), Astros (0.034), Giants (0.031), and White Sox (0.021). The other AL teams are 13th Rays (0.008), 14th Red Sox (0.007), and 29th Orioles (-0.038). Seattle, as has been noted a very lucky to date team, are 25th with -0.031.

So in season to date the Dodgers are their own tier, Yankees-Astros-Giants in the 2nd tier, and then the Jays are in a 3rd tier with the White Sox, Padres (0.018), and maybe A's (0.016).

I'm pretty sure I was the only Dwight Smith Jr fan around here, and I will not abide anyone trying to horn in on my glory. Up with that I will not put.

Fools! You have no perception! (I said to myself at the time.)

SK, how are you able to get Jays games on MLB.tv? Or…shouldn’t we talk about that? I’d purchase MLB.tv just so I didn’t have to listen to those gents.

Goldstein with a neat piece on the AL trade deadline. He's able to offer insights on various FO's behaviours that other places don't because he has actually been part of negotiations with a number of them.

Here's KG's take on the Jays behaviour:

They identify players as acquisition targets, then go after them while remaining responsive and rational.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/state-of-the-org-american-league/

Can't see why the Yankees would be ranked so high.

Stanton, Judge and Sanchez have hit. Urshela has been pretty good.  LeMahieu is only a league average bat.
Everybody else is below average and the defense is pretty bad.

Cole has lost his edge now that sticky substances are banned.
Kluber is on the shelf. Taillon has struggled. Garcia is getting shelled in AAA.
Montgomery and German are only average.

This is a team that has struggled to stay healthy for years now. 

"SK, how are you able to get Jays games on MLB.tv? Or…shouldn’t we talk about that? I’d purchase MLB.tv just so I didn’t have to listen to those gents."


I live in the States so I am not blacked out from watching Jays games unless they are facing the Yankees/Mets. Unfortunately, I believe people in Canada are not so lucky with MLBtv, so they are forced to listen to Buck/Pat.

MLB.tv used to show Jay games in Canada but I guess Sportsnet wanted us all to subscribe to their service (which I did as I cut cable awhile ago and never am going back). Sucks on Sirius XM when the Jays are at home as on the stations I get in the car are the home feed only. Listening to Buck & Pat on the radio is bad. You can go long stretches without hearing the score or knowing what the count is. They are getting better but have a ways to go. Funny, I didn't think it mattered having different teams for radio and TV but boy does it make a difference. The other teams broadcasters are so much nicer to listen to in the car.

McGuire missed a chunk of the Dunedin experience and has generated most of his playing time post-Dunedin so his RA/Game numbers will look better than his fellow C's.

I live in the States so I am not blacked out from watching Jays games unless they are facing the Yankees/Mets

I am in the same boat. I only ever listen to the games -- never watch. I hate to pile on but there is never one radio broadcast team more annoying than Buck. For me it's not just what he says -- but the voice, intonation and timbre of his voice is just all wrong IMO. It sounds fake to me. The only team that competes for less annoying is the Yankees pair (John Sterling and Susan Waldman) where John can't be bothered to learn how to pronounce the Jays names correctly (Grichuk is not that hard) and where he is so dismissive of Waldman and anything she says even though he doesn't seem to really know much. Waldman on the other hand seems like she's been beaten down and there is a tone of apology in anything she offers. It's like being invited to dinner at a dysfunctional family's household.

Listening to Buck & Pat on the radio is bad.

"Hey, let's turn over the radio broadcasts to two guys who have never worked on the radio. And who think they're actually calling the games on TV. Possibly because they are."

What could go wrong? Why would they update the score, or the count? There's a little graphic on the screen at all times that tells you the score and the count.

I imagine it's better with Shulman, who's done lots of radio in his time.

I'll note again that by all accounts it was MLB, not Rogers, who made the decision to remove Canada from eligible watchers of the Blue Jays on mlb.tb.

Having listened to baseball on the radio for 50 years now, I accept that being a good radio announcer (play by play or colour) is really hard. I've listed to major and minor league announcers all over the country and there are just very few who are really good at it (surprisingly, its like any other profession:)). What drives me crazy about Buck and Pat is what has been said above - they don't actually call the game. I can accept that they aren't very good at what they do, but not calling the game seems sort of fundamental to me. Maybe my expectations are too high.

If you use a VPN service for online privacy, most of them off the feature of allowing your PC or mobile device to appear to be located almost anywhere in the world that you choose. It's handy for getting around local blackouts or being able to access foreign streaming service content. It's 100% legal.

Castro and Payamps have been optioned to make room for Matz and Cimber.

Beasley DFA.

The bullpen is now:

Romano
Mayza, Chatwood, Cimber
Murphy, Barnes, Saucedo, Thornton

Add Kay to the bullpen list now that Matz is back.

Doesn't that make the roster one player short again with Manoah currently suspended?

Yes, the roster is currently one under at 25, 4 starters, 9 relievers and 12 position players. If Kay has to start its 5 starters and 8 relievers.

Too bad on Castro as I feel he has real potential there in the pen. But I see why - the Jays have his rights for 6 more years as he still won't have a full season between this year and his 33 days last year, so expect him to be kept around in AAA. Payamps has decent surface numbers but I know I don't trust him - but he has 5-6 more years of control so he'll be kept around in AAA as well. I figure they'll be on the AAA/MLB shuttle with Kay, Saucedo, and Murphy.

Checking options the only guys out of them in the pen are Chatwood, Barns, Cole (IL), Dolis (IL), Edwards Jr (IL), Milone (IL), Phelps (IL), Yates (IL). Hmm...lucky the hurt guys were the ones without options.

On their last option (so can't be sent down in 2022 if down this year) are Murphy, Payamps, Borucki (IL), and Merryweather (IL).

That's the roster spot I thought might be a door for Smith.

There's room for whichever player the team wants. The mystery is why they keep playing games shorthanded.

I think they have to play with a 24 man roster. Pitcher suspensions are pretty toothless already, but a defacto demotion promotion would be silly. I think.

Moreno has a thumb fracture, that's why he wasn't in the lineup the last few days. Atkins says he could be out weeks.

Michael, there’s a story on the Bauer case on the Athletic. It’s extremely graphic and disturbing. I don’t want to take this thread off track, but I can’t see how it doesn’t lead to a suspension

Many who use defensive stats have a favourite, but Fangraphs Jay Jaffe points out one of his own sites failings in a piece on Xander Boegarts:

"The picture isn’t so sunny when it comes to Bogaerts’ defense. UZR holds him in higher esteem than DRS does, but as UZR doesn’t account for infield shifts — which DRS handles at the team level — I tend to give it less weight in my evaluations of infielders, particularly when the DRS numbers jibe with Statcast’s Outs Above Average numbers, which in Bogaerts’ case they do."

From 2018 to 2021, He's been a small plus each year by UZR. Vastly different by both DRS and OAA, where he's been negative by a little or a lot each year.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/xander-bogaerts-hot-bat-and-cold-glove/


Jaffe's comments on UZR for infield defence are mild, like a Toyota salesman telling you his Tundra is not quite as good as a Ram 1500. If he says that, one can assume the Ram is a far better truck.

I'm mildly disappointed to see Payamps demoted while the team continues its fascination with the Trent Thornton experience. Maybe in the minority here, but outside of Chatwood, there is no reliever I trust less in the bullpen right now. I understand it's a SSS but his percentile rankings are, not good.

As an aside, how are people using Chrome embedding images in their posts, or are they?

YouTube broadcast shows a little graphic of the defensive positioning. Nice addition.

It's kinda weird. Two guys are yakking about baseball with a game on in the background and the two things seem to have rather little to do with each other.

Yep, they sound like the idiots I usually get stuck sitting in front of, who never shut up.

What's going out over the radio?

Just let the lady talk please.

On the other hand, run expectancy, wRC+ and I might have missed the ribbies, but it certainly hasn't been mentioned over and over.

Yeah, I love this broadcast team actually.

Yeah, I love this broadcast team actually.

I hate this with the heat of a thousand suns. Brian Kelly is brutally insufferable. He is so pleased with himself that it's nauseating.

I hate this with the heat of a thousand suns.

Likewise. Let the game breathe a little.

Brian Kenny. I should at least get his name right.

I’m glad the broadcast crew is distracting everyone from what the offends is doing tonight,

Let me guess Nigel - posting from your phone with autocorrect on?

Geez, it really is a talk show with a game on in the background. What a concept.

Content: A+
Style: A-
Personality: D

Really like the graphics. The pitch sequencing one is great.

Ha, yes Magpie. My apologies - I’m not nearly that cryptically funny. In the context of the ongoing discussion, it’s an interesting autocorrect.

Do we have enough arms yet to end the Trent Thornton experience for good?

Personality: D

I don't know -- is it possible just for a second that this broadcast team isn't worth the hatred of the heat of a thousand suns and that their personality isn't quite as low as a D?

I mean, I don't want to go to lunch with any of this team and/or make them my friends -- but they know the game and they're talking about it and they have opinions and things get discussed. At least it's not boring Buck hiding behind his fake broadcast voice and his co-partner enablers.

Just the one guy who's talking over everyone. The other ones are all good.

Yeah, they're really chewing up any dead air. The crusty snide bitterness of DeRosa is the highlight of the broadcast.

It'd be interesting to see a broadcast without any numbers (aside from ones about the game). This crew uses them like a club to bludgeon the viewer, as opposed to providing shape to what's happening in the game. On the flip side, you'd never have to hear about errors and RBIs.

Also, Langs seems decent, but she needs to get in there more. RRS is shriggish. And... You remember loony tunes, Chester and Spike? There's some definite Chester vibe going on.

This broadcast fits right in with Buck and Pat and most other broadcasts I've listened to, in that they all seem to hate baseball. So much time complaining about the shift and game lengths and pitcher usage and blah blah blah. If I'm new to the sport, this sounds like the game is in a death spiral.

Really like the graphics. The pitch sequencing one is great.

I like them too, but what I like even more is someone who can talk intelligently about the pitch sequence - how the second pitch relates to the third pitch and how it sets up the fourth pitch. (Is it ironic that this is the one thing - perhaps the only thing - that Buck Martinez actually does very well, and doesn't do nearly often enough?)

As a baseball talk show, I suppose this is okay. As a broadcast of a particular game between two teams - this has been one long insult.

The team record for LOB feels like it’s at risk tonight.

That's 8 consecutive scoreless innings for Kay, with 13 Ks, 2 BB, 6 H.

Every time we score the pitching gives it right back the next inning.

C'mon boys, show Batters Box what clutch looks like.

Seems like the other team has lots of good relievers.

All true, but the team squandered a boat load of chances to score earlier.

The 10 minute post game interview with Dylan Moore was excellent. Worthwhile TV compared to 1 minute Sportsnet interview after the game.

You think one of these days that luck would bounce our way in these tied late inning games, but not tonight. Agree with Nigel that there was a ton of chances earlier to get more runs in but just didn't string together the hits.

At least we didn't blow a 8-4 lead in the 9th with the best bullpen in baseball unlike some other random unnamed team. Or blow a 7-0 1st inning lead and lose by 8+.

Oh and how does the Orioles manage to sweep the Astros in Houston? Just bizzare.

I get that it is frustrating to want to blame the offense for not converting given that they left 10 men on base, but overall the Jays were 5-20 with runners in scoring position which isn't great but isn't horrid either. Seattle was 4-14 with 8 men left on base which isn't worlds better than the Jays. 12 hits/6 BB for Jays compared to 13 hits/2 BB for Seattle is pretty similar too on offense.

But really when you score 7 runs and lose it isn't about the offense failing. The Jays had 6 pitchers and 3 of them were not good today. Matz 4 R in 2.2 innings, Thorton 2 runs in 1.1 innings, Murphy 3 runs (2 earned, the runner at 2nd in extra innings unearned) in 0.1 innings. That is 3 pitchers with ERA for the outing over 15. Seattle had 3.5 pitchers that didn't really do their job, but they were not as disasterous as the 3 jays: Sheffield 4 runs in 4 innings, Chargois 1 run in 1 inning, Misiewicz 1 run in 1.1 innings, and maybe Steckenrider 1 unearned run (the runner at 2nd in extra innings) in 1 innings. So their bad pitching was more like 7.5 RA where ours was a 18.7 RA. We had more good pitching then they did with 5.2 innings of shutout from 3 pitchers to only 2.2 innings of shutout from 2 pitchers, but the 18.7 RA is hard to overcome and not caused by our own "clutch hitting" or lack there of.

I'd like to raise a glass in honour of Thomas Boswell, who published his last column yesterday and heads off into a well-earned retirement. Boswell spent more than 50 years at the Washington Post. He was first of all a reporter, someone who covered all sports, although baseball and golf were clearly the ones closest to his heart. Washington didn't have its own baseball team for the first half of his career, so his "local" team was the Baltimore Orioles. As a result, he spent a lot of time in his early years listening to Earl Weaver talk about baseball. Boswell's Total Average formulation, a kind of primitive forerunner of OPS, was a very early attempt to translate Weaver's ideas about what constituted value in baseball into terms that the rest of the world could understand. His books are still very readable. So congratulations on a job very well done, and all that.

This is a team that swept the Rays in a 4 game series, right.
We saw why they're good in close games, they have a pretty good pen.

Guerrero struck out 3 times. Can't really be too hard on him here. Bichette ran into a double play when Hernandez's linedrive was caught. It happens, but not too often.

I think part of the bad pitching is Adams not being that great at calling a game yet.
With his stuff, Murphy is supposed to go high fastball, low curveball.
Not enough curve just below the strikezone. No reason to go inside with the fastball.

Sheffield looked horrible. Low velo, bad control. Not surprised the Yankees dumped him.

About the broadcast crew, they had Buck Showalter in the pre-game.
Not surprisingly, he was wrong on a bunch of things. He took the under 10.5 runs for the game.
He said the Mariners had a chance at making the playoffs. This the worse offense in the league.
There is no way. The pitching won't be enough when they face the same teams over and over in the second half.
I suppose Guerrero's chance to win the MVP are better now that he picked Ohtani.

The format has 4 or five people debating things as the game went along.
I don't know if they have the same crew every game. I suppose not, otherwise it could go stale very fast.
We saw that Hernandez doesn't get much recognition.
I can't imagine listening to those guys a second time. Can't find their 21 game schedule.
One of their feature is the ability to start a live chat with some buddies and talk over these guys talking over themselves. I think that's an extended bluray/DVD feature as well. Who does that?
I love the positioning info. That is awesome. The pitch sequencing is just reminding me of what I just saw.
Not a fan.

Mark DeRosa put up an OPS over .800 twice in a sixteen year MLB career. He put up an OPS over .800 in five of his six postseason series (six of seven if you count one plate appearance in 2001). Three times it was over 1000. Small sample size and all, but I was surprised to see that.

Anyhow, playoff performer or not, I didn't think too much of him as a broadcaster. I liked Sarah Langs and Rowland-Smith, although I might have been too distracted by the latter's Aussie accent to focus on the content of what he saying.

I suppose the "sticky stuff" results so far are SSS.

A Chapman has not been too good lately.

Donaldson commented on sticky stuff to Giolito.

Wins and losses will be affected from the start of the sticky stuff crackdown.

I am enjoying this.

I'm curious about something. Wondering how many here used to take their radios to the games at the Ex or the Dome. I never did. So muting much of the broadcast is no issue to me if nothing unusual is happening. But I also realize I'm not like most people.

I'm curious about something.

I was a frequent attendee of lives games in Montreal and Toronto from the late 1970s until the late 1980s, and, due to geography, have been an infrequent attendee since. Back then, the guys listening to the radio tended to be older (well, older than me then, not older than me now). And scoring games was not exclusively something the older guys did, but it was mainly just them.

This surely falls under the heading of old guy ranting, but a big charm of live baseball was that the event was allowed to breathe. There were periods of quiet. You could speak to the people you were with without having to yell. You were not bombarded with inane "entertainment", at full volume, at every moment that play stopped. It was a less infantilizing experience.

And this rat-a-tat-tat non-stop assault now finds its way into broadcasts. There is no pausing any more, no letting a little quiet time pass between pitches. It's a full-on verbal assault from the first pitch to the last. And last night's YouTube broadcast, which featured four (!) voices, was relentless. Perhaps that kind of thing is appealing to a younger demographic, raised on 24/7 of in-your-face, but to an old fart like me, it was torture.

I have mentioned several times here that I wish an option for the broadcasts was just crowd noises, no broadcaster voices but not total silence either. That would be a nice alternative when the talking heads become too intolerable.

Blue Jays interested in Richard Rodriguez according to Heyman.
Can they swap him for 3 or 4 surplus prospects?
Just need to pay a bit more than the competition.
Padres and Rays shouldn't be interested.
Mariners would be fools to deals good prospects now. 

Wondering how many here used to take their radios to the games at the Ex or the Dome. I never did.

I never did that either, but I know lots of people did. The radio broadcasts were very important if you were a fan. Until sometime in the 1990s, most Jays games were not on the TV. Until then you'd get one weekday evening game (Wednesdays, I think) and one on the weekend. That's just the way it was. I kid you not.

So Jays fans in the 1980s generally listened to more games on the radio than they were able to watch on television. We came to expect things, like always being told what the count was and being regularly reminded of the number of outs, who was on base, who was getting loose in the pen. You would get the occasional recaps of how the game's runs earlier runs had scored, or important plays that had happened.

Among other things, the broadcasters would tell you what the defense was doing - they're in at the corners, they're swung around in the outfield, they're at double play depth, they're guarding the lines. We didn't need no stinkin' graphics! Martinez and Tabler are utterly hopeless at this, as you would expect - they're TV guys, they've got half a dozen cameras covering all parts of the field, the director can do that work for them.

I used to take my radio into SkyDome occasionally. I recollect that the AM signal was poor up on the 500 level, if your seat was way up near the roof. Also, the radio broadcast was piped into the concourse of the 200 level.

Michael - I completely agree that, if you give up 9 runs, the pitching is to blame. But I can also look at last night’s game, even though they scored 7, and say the offence was to blame too. They failed to score a runner on 3rd base with less than two outs several times. That doesn’t even require clutch hitting. Sometimes every facet of the team is to blame. The defence was poor last night too.

I used to go to many games a year at the Ex and sit in the bleachers. Taking a radio was a big thing out there, although I never did. I think it was a combination of factors. One, you were so damn far away, it was hard to detect pitch types etc and radio gave you some of that. It rounded out what was otherwise a bit of a fuzzy picture out there. Second, the price of the tickets let quite a few older single people go to mid week games and I think the radio was a bit of company.

I’m with Chuck that an in game experience without some room to breathe is annoying but this is definitely a “get off my lawn” complaint these days.

I faintly remember those days. I liked Tony Kubek. Don't know if he was good or not, but i was even more clueless about baseball then than I am now. Remember Don Chevrier, probably because him at a Keg on Dundas around 86-87. Fergie Olver's How about those Blue Jays. and that's about it for TV.

I was watching last night, and I was thinking about music, because I'm always thinking about music. There are guitar players who are amazing technicans, guys like Steve Vai and Tom Morello, players who can and will fire off passages of 32nd notes - and it always sounds more like an athletic competition than music. Because the notes don't exist long enough to mean anything. If there are so many notes flying at you, it's hard for any of them to matter. I realize this sounds a little like Emperor Joseph II - "too many notes" - but you just can't say anything with 32nd notes, unless you're Johann Sebastian Bach.

In other words, there was non-stop chatter going on while I was trying to watch a baseball game, none of which made any impression on me.

Ever listened to Django Reinhardt, Magpie? Django and Grappelli's Minor Swing is one of my all time favourites.

I may be listening on the radio, but I am glad never to miss any gossip from the television broadcast.

It has been ages since Tabby has served up a little bread and butter.

I like RBI, count 'em up and count me in.

Has anyone seen Ben Wagner lately?

Oh, Django was a wonderful player. And I don't even care much for jazz.

I actually purchased a book of Django tablature. I was thinking - he played this stuff with just two working fingers, right? Surely I can do it with four.

Turns out you have to be Django Reinhardt.

I've never played an instrument since recorder lessons in grade school. I just like individual pieces that appeal to my tastes. So a little of a lot of different genres.

Anyway, hope everyone is having an enjoyable Canada Day.

The game on Victoria Day was broadcast on Sportsnet Ontario. In the past two weeks, a few weekday games have also been picked up by Sportsnet Ontario in the absence of hockey. (Game 1 between Tampa Bay and New York unceremoniously pushed Sunday afternoon baseball onto Sportsnet One.) On to the dog days of baseball only!

Gotta have this one, on Canada Day in the Queen City!

Couple of ex-Jays on the move. Yankees picked up speedster Tim Locastro from the DBacks for a AA reliever. Best known for his HBP's, averaging 30 per season from 2014-19. For context the Blue Jays have been hit 34 times this year and last year combined.

And after an awful start to the season, Matt Shoemaker has been DFA'd by the Twins.

This has the early makeup of the traditional Canada Day disaster.
I think they usually burn the uniforms after those games.

Was just looking at Ryu’s splits. His numbers haven’t been very good since Jansen went down. K/BB ratio 5.36 with Danny and 1.63 with Adams/McGuire.

— Andy A King (@AABurke81) July 1, 2021

Django Reinhardt has been a favorite of mine since I was a teenager; indeed even before I knew who the "Band of Gypsies" referred to.

It's concerning when your ace doesn't pitch like an ace. Ryu had the highest ERA among the starters in June and hasn't stated July well. It's not like he's a power pitcher. Is he just not locating the ball well?

I'm hoping he's not a sticky stuff guy.

Ryu has been among the worst spin rates in the league for years, and he has more rpm on all of his pitches today than his season average. I would be surprised if the crackdown affected him. It would have to be through worse command.

I regret listening to a few of the Jays podcasts between the Orioles series and this one. But I was stuck in my basement staying out of the heat and there wasn't much else to do. But all the yammer about how the Mariners are so trash and the Jays are so awesome and this should be an easy sweep. But guess what being good situationally matters and now they're just struggling to do anything today against a good pitcher.

I think what I've come to accept is that I just really dislike the Jays current group of fan bloggers. The ex Blue Jays nation core of Andrew Stoeten, Cam Lewis and Drew Fairservice (especially Fairservice) are just awful. But at least they have some personality if mostly bad, the rest of the jays bloggers who podcast/etc have no personality.

Now the actual Jays reporters/etc with the bigger orgs like Keegan, Wilner, Ben Nicholson-Smith, Arden, etc are pretty decent but they don't really make a lot of content worth listening to. Anyway it would be nice if there was a Blue Jays youtuber worth listening to akin to Hockey Guy for hockey but there isn't much out there. Magpie if you start up a channel I'll subscribe. :)

Seattle's Jake Fraley is an interesting cat. It's like he decides to do something and damn it, he does it.

In 2019-20, he walked 2 times in 69 PAs. Now, in 2021, presumably deciding that getting on base would be a good path to a major league job, he has walked 26 times in 110 PAs. From almost never walking to walking 25% of the time. That's a hell of an improvement.

is Vlad wearing down?

I doubt that. He just has had a really bad couple games. Happens to everyone.

Chatwood not being able to throw a fastball again.
Maybe he thought the game was already lost and he's there only to get some live practice?
Almost just breaking balls 86-91mph. Half of them missing widely. Lots of them high in the zone.
Got 2 strikeouts on a wipeout slider.

Particularly bad against lefties. 3 games in a row for Saucedo.

Vladdy has not been good in this series.
Striking out on 3 pitches as likely as anything else.

I'm at the point where I see Chatwood  in the boxscore and I expect a loss. I dont know of this is mechanics local, mental or both feeding off each other but he's not pitchable.

It's possible he was a pitcher who benefited more from sticky substances and without it he's having more problems with control. I wish I was better at finding stats on baseball savant since that stuff should be searchable.

APR

#13 4.5 runs/gm
#17 92wrc+
#5 77era-
#22 103fip-


MAY

#6 5.5 runs/gm
#1 119wrc+
#15 97era-
#23 106fip-

JUN

#3 5.5 runs/gm
#3 121wrc+
#8 93era-
#23 113fip-


Season

#2 5.2 runs/gm
#2 112wrc+
#10 90era-
#23 108fip-



Maybe we have some fip-busting skills on our staff but imo we've probably been pretty lucky pitchingwise this year, but haven't taken advantage.

Meanwhile even after a fluke bad April, our offense is back up to legit elite on the year, in both wrc+ and in run production, as expected.

Some teams are better than the sum of their parts. Sadly we seem to be a team that is worse than the sum. Nice overall metrics but middling record.

Just hope for a correction and more often than not it happens.

They have only 1 guy on their team who was drafted/signed by them, Seager, and he's only there because they put a clause in his contract that made him unmovable. Right now, they're waiting for a window when Houston/Oakland are no longer elite and the Rangers haven't turned it around. Even then, they'll probably be stuck with the Angels no matter what.

It's tough to face a good starter following a loss against a bad one.

Another frustrating game. But if you score just 2 runs you aren't going to win often.

Chatwood in June: came in with lead: 4 times, came in behind: 5 times, tied: once. Left with lead: 4, behind 5, tied 1 time. Situation worse: 3 times (once from down 7 to down 12 so who cares), 3 times replaced in inning like today. Why is he here still? May 23rd was the start of his fall. Only twice before that he was replaced during an inning. 6 times since. He just had a stretch of 8 games without allowing a run but one of those times he left with the bases loaded so it was more the guy who followed him who saved him. Otherwise his May 23rd and beyond ERA would be even worse (13.09 ERA - 16 runs in 11 IP including today's disaster) 12 H 15 BB 8 SO over those 11 IP. I'm thinking it is hitting time to just cut bait on him or put him on the IL for 'inability to pitch'. It is a shame as he looked to be getting better but these last two games just re-enforced the 'you can't count on him' narrative. I think he needs to be shifted down to #9 in the pen for now until the time needed has passed to call up Castro again or Payamps or pretty much anyone. If another team shows any interest in him in a trade give him to them I say. As good as he was in May he now is a disaster. I figure the defense is flat footed with him on the mound now as they have to be expecting a walk.

Vladdy, Semien and Hernandez made the All-Stars game.

Off the bat, they'll need a replacement for Trout, I think.

I think what I've come to accept is that I just really dislike the Jays current group of fan bloggers. The ex Blue Jays nation core of Andrew Stoeten, Cam Lewis and Drew Fairservice (especially Fairservice) are just awful. But at least they have some personality if mostly bad, the rest of the jays bloggers who podcast/etc have no personality.

Artificial Turf Wars remains the best Jays podcast.

I couldn’t stand Birds All Day and it took me a long time to give Stoeten another chance, but his Blue Jays Happy Hour with Nick Ashbourne is pretty good. Ashbourne doesn’t have great pipes for podcasting but he’s a smart guy, one of the very few who produces interesting writing about the Jays.

After those 2 it gets lean real quick. At The Letters has some decent content but often tilts off towards sports bro talk. Deep Left Field has lots of interviews if that’s your thing, but it’s also full of Wilner who is ever more pleased with himself. Drew Fairservice is not a dummy and sometimes plays well with his co-host Kaitlyn McGrath, but he blathers on and on to an absurd degree.

Yeah perhaps its a bit unfair for me to lump in Stoeten with the other 2. His blogs are usually worth a read for a couple points anyway. Not saying the 3 are dummies I just find them all to be extremely abrasive and not fun to listen to. I'll give that happy hour another chance and try the others.