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It is a big extension at 7 years $131 mil.

Via MLB Network’s Jon Heyman the Jays have signed a long term deal with Berrios. So one long term issue dealt with. Many more to go.

Details to be added as they are released. Early rumor was 7 years $140 mil. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that it is valued at $131MM, pending a physical. That works out to $18.714MM per year.

Hard to complain. $140 for 5 was more what I figured we'd be looking at next winter. I see the last 2 years as bonus. If healthy this is a great deal for the Jays. FanGraphs has him worth over $20 mil every full season of his career (4 seasons), 2020 he was on pace for it ($24 mil pace), leaving just 2016 when he was just a 22 year old rookie getting his feet wet (14 starts, ERA over 8). 2.7 to 4.4 fWAR a year (skipping rookie and 2020 2.97 pace). IMO this is an excellent signing. He may not win a Cy Young, but he is a very solid #2, sometimes #1 starter. So for the next 6 years Berrios and Manoah will be in the rotation. Who the other 3 will be we will see - Ryu for 2 more years fills one slot. Will Ray fill another?
Berrios Signed Long Term | 81 comments | Create New Account
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uglyone - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 09:31 AM EST (#409372) #
7 x $131 official.

Great signing.
rpriske - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 09:32 AM EST (#409373) #
Well I wouldn't normally say signing a pitcher to a 7 year contract is a good idea, if that is what it took - good on them!
johnny was - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 09:38 AM EST (#409374) #
Phew! There goes a major source of anxiety next off season.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 09:46 AM EST (#409375) #
I don't have any issues with this deal. A 7 year deal is a long time, but the extension is basically 6/120, as he was projected to make ~$11 million in his final year of arbitration, and that seems fair for a SP of his quality. He is a very good SP and so far has been durable. The team really could not afford to lose him after next season, so it's good that they got this done now rather than have to worry about it later. Gives them some cost certainty to make subsequent moves now.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 09:49 AM EST (#409376) #
bpoz - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 09:54 AM EST (#409378) #
Berrios had 2 bad starts in August. After 1 of them he said that he was going to make adjustments and he did that successfully. That is a good trait to have. I like that he is locked up for a few years. Hope he stays healthy.

Looking forward to comparing the deals signed by the top SP FAs.
grjas - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 09:58 AM EST (#409379) #
Rogers clearly willing to step up. Good sign we can play with the good boys. 7 years though. Yikes! Price of talent I guess
John Northey - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 10:14 AM EST (#409380) #
Rumors I'm seeing online say the Angels are making a big push for Ray. When they choose to open their wallets they open them big time so if they are really after Ray the Jays will walk away and wish him good luck I'm sure. I suspect he'll wait until after the Cy Young voting is done before signing any deal though, but I'm betting on $200+ mil in the end for Ray over 7 years - no way I'd sign that deal, but the Angels might.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 10:16 AM EST (#409381) #
Also, apparently, an opt-out option after year 5. Back-loaded deal, maybe?

Rosenthal also mentioned possibly some other escalators - maybe extra $$ for Cy Young votes?
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 10:19 AM EST (#409382) #
Angels just signed Thor for $21M for 1 year. Are they ALSO going to sign Ray to $20MM+? Trying to out-splash the Dodgers? :-)
John Northey - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 10:25 AM EST (#409383) #
Just read about the Angels signing Syndergaard - insane. For one year coming off 2 seasons of nearly no pitching (2 IP total) he gets more than the AAV on Berrios' deal. Boy the more I see the more I like this Berrios deal. It'll be interesting to see the details - if front loaded with an opt-out at the end I could still be OK with it. Say $110 mil over first 5, then $30 over last two or player opt out would be the same as a 5 year $110 deal which would still be damn fine. Heck, as I said above, $140 over 5 was what I figured the market would be by next winter unless the players lose big time in negotiations or Berrios has a very bad year. Given Thor's deal I'm even more sure of that.
Glevin - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 10:29 AM EST (#409384) #
Happy they extended Berrios. Seven years is a lot but the $20M is very doable and he's only 27 so a 34 to pitcher should still be prime. He is super consistent and seemed like an immediate clubhouse fit. Would love to see Vlad extended next but he might not want that.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 10:59 AM EST (#409385) #
I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Vlad for equal value assets under control if he decides to leave or demands a contract long enough to go 10 years in length.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 11:06 AM EST (#409386) #
The 3 most comparable pitchers according to BBRef are John Lackey, Trevor Bauer and Max Scherzer.  Lackey was quite similar- had a big year in his age 28 season, another good year and then started to fade due to elbow issues, had TJ and came back for a good year at age 34.  All in all, he generated 14.2 bWAR between 28 and 34 with almost 1/2 of it in the first year.  Scherzer took a big step forward in his age 28 season, but he had increased his K rate in his age 27 season (he led the league that year). 

I ran a Stathead search using ages 24-27 with 750<IP<850 and 115<ERA+<121.  Berrios had an ERA+ of 118 and would likely have had about 800IP but for the shortened season in 2020.  The players that I got were:  Jose Quintana, Jered Weaver, Bob Gibson, Jim Bunning, Wilson Alvarez, Van Mungo, Pete Vukovich, Mark Mulder, Curt Simmons, Bobby Shantz, Eddie Smith, Frank Lary, Jay Hughes and Red Lucas.  I threw out Hughes and Lucas because they were in the deadball era and Mungo because he went from throwing 311 innings at age 25 to 130 at age 27. 

Of the remaining 11 pitchers, two exploded and became Hall of Famers (Gibson and Bunning).  Four provided provided pretty good value (Weaver, Simmons, Lary and Shantz).  Five had arm troubles and provided little if any value.

Objectively the deal is a reasonable one, but filled with risk.  Subjectively, I like it better than that with the chance of upside about equivalent to the risk of blowout.  Berrios is an athlete and I do like to bet on the athletes. 

greenfrog - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 11:07 AM EST (#409387) #
I approve. Seven years is a lot, but Berrios is only 27 and he's coming off a very good season. Among other things, I like that he's very athletic and a good fielder. That will help his performance in the coming seasons. Subjectively, I liked his competitiveness and poise on the mound during his 2021 starts for the Jays.
bpoz - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 11:10 AM EST (#409388) #
It does look like the Jays will try to extend when the time is right.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 11:20 AM EST (#409389) #
When the Jays acquired Berrios, they obviously valued him a little more than the traditional objective measures would suggest.  And that is reflected in the deal.  Good on them. 
Nigel - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 11:32 AM EST (#409390) #
All long term contracts for pitchers involve substantial risk, this one being no different. For the reasons others have set out above, I like taking the risk on Berrios at this price. Contract details may be important, but my initial reaction is thumbs up. Subjectively, I’m happy because I enjoy watching pitchers who work quickly and who can field their position.
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 11:34 AM EST (#409391) #
My post-Berrios shopping list would include:

-One more quality SP
-One or two quality bullpen arms
-Impact-level infielder (ideally Semien)
-Good two-way fourth outfielder (who hits RHP well)
-Some SP and bullpen depth

Not sure what happens with Gurriel Jr. and Grichuk this off-season.
Thomas - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 11:40 AM EST (#409392) #
I don't really the Thor contract as a good data point, since you're always going to pay a premium to sign a pitcher to a one-year deal. The Jays would have paid a lot more than the $18 million AAV to sign Berrios for one year after 2022 (obviously).

However, Mike Green's data run was interesting. Like, Mike, I like this better than the results of that suggest, for a variety of factors, including the fact that Berrios is athletic, I think Walker is a good pitching coach and, as far I'm aware, there were no negative indicators with respect to his stuff in 2020/2021 (I wouldn't be surprised if there was for at least one of the pitchers in that data run).

There's a lot of risk here, but I like the move. In a few years, $18 million for a #2 starter will be very good value. However, as John said, the devil may be in some of the details, such as whether and when there's an opt-out.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 11:43 AM EST (#409393) #
Thumbs up to the extension. It makes the trade look even better because now you have a good pitcher for many years while the prospects traded for Berrios are still prospects. The chances of SWR and Martin flaming out or just being mediocre are much higher than them ever being stars.
PeterG - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 11:44 AM EST (#409394) #
Opt out after 5 years.
bpoz - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 11:50 AM EST (#409395) #
This extension helps build a long term foundation. Berrios was a HS pick that moved through the farm quite fast. The important factor is that injuries did not slow him down in his minor or major league career. A solid pitcher rather than an Ace so far.

Our current position players plus Moreno, O Martinez and Groshans allows us to not trade any of these 3 top prospects unless the return is also high quality. We just wait for these 3 to arrive and be good. They will be cheap in their first few years. The farm has not lost anything since A Martin and SWR.

The financial flexibility also seems ok.

Mike Green - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 12:05 PM EST (#409396) #
Bob Gibson would have opted out after his age 32 season!  But I think the Jays will take it if Berrios can generate 11.2 WAR in his age 32 season as Gibson did.  Bunning's peak was at ages 33-35 so the opt-out would be most unfortunate in his situation turning a killer deal into merely a good one. 
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 12:07 PM EST (#409397) #
I am delighted by this extension. The timing is fantastic, and I think the terms are super reasonable. Love seeing players want to stay and commit long term.

Who’s next??
Nigel - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 01:22 PM EST (#409400) #
The other thing about this deal is that not every frontline pitcher wants to come to Toronto and/or the AL East. It would seem that Berrios liked it so, bird in hand and all that.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 02:26 PM EST (#409402) #
Two big thumbs up. Beyond the contract length and dollars, Berrios to me was off season target #1 and the best player we could have signed/resigned or extended other than Vlad and maybe Bo.
cascando - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 02:47 PM EST (#409403) #
I really like it. You never know how a contract of this length will play out, but it is fair market value right now.
Also if Berrios has a big year, he could have priced himself out of the Jays' comfort zone. A worthwhile risk.
scottt - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 05:43 PM EST (#409405) #
That's how I like to spend prospect capital.
I think the clubhouse culture is very good.
I also think that Montoyo is liked by the Latino crew.
Berrios is from Puerto Rico, as well.

A starter who logs innings is a huge help to a bullpen, especially now that the number of pitchers will be capped.

I think it's crazy for LA to drop a second round pick for the privilege of offering an expensive pillow contract to a guy who is not going to give them that many innings.

It's really open for Seattle to spend.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 06:25 PM EST (#409406) #
For transactions last winter the only move pre-December was signing Robbie Ray for $8 mil for 1 year. Then...
  • Dec 7: Anthony Castro off waivers
  • Jan 12: Signed A.J. Cole as a free agent
  • Jan 20: Signed Kirby Yates as a free agent (there was a few mil in the toilet)
  • Jan 21: Signed Tyler Chatwood as a free agent (ugh)
  • Jan 23: Signed George Springer as a free agent.
  • Jan 27: Traded Josh Winckowski, Yennsy Diaz and Sean Reid-Foley to the New York Mets. Received Steven Matz.
  • Jan 30: Signed Marcus Semien as a free agent.
  • Feb 2-12: Signed Connor Overton, Francisco Liriano, David Phelps, and Joe Panik as free agents
  • Feb 23: Ryan Noda sent to the Dodgers as the final piece of the Stripling trade
  • Lots of dull stuff after that - Selected Joel Payamps off waivers from the Boston Red Sox after taking him earlier, and losing him, The Oakland Athletics returned Dany Jimenez, purchased Travis Bergen from the Arizona, signed Tommy Milone as a free agent.
Basically that was last offseason. Biggest moves were late January and the Ray signing. This signing is big to start the winter but I wouldn't expect much between now and February when free agents get anxious. Probably the loss of Ray and/or Semien before then but we'll see I guess. I skipped a few very minor looking transactions.
Glevin - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 06:49 PM EST (#409407) #
Seems like a desperation move by Angels who have made mostly such moves despite getting handed Trout and Ohtani. The contract is only a bit expensive but giving up a second rounder as well which is worth somewhere between $6-$7M which makes it a 1/$28 or something which is just a massive overpay.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 07:37 PM EST (#409408) #
Big thumbs up on this one. Essentially it's like an $11M deal for his last arb year, and then $20M per for 6 free agent years. I thought he'd get higher AAV on the open market next winter.
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 08:01 PM EST (#409409) #
The Berrios extension may also be helpful in persuading free agents that Toronto is likely to be competitive for at least the next few years.
Spifficus - Tuesday, November 16 2021 @ 08:17 PM EST (#409410) #
I'm a huge fan of this signing. It seems like a slight discount, but not exploitive. Certainly not what such a steadily good (and able to take the field) pitcher would get on the open market.

It'll be interesting to see what Stroman gets, as I look at them in a similar tier - mighty fine #2 starters. Of course, I wouldn't consider them directly comparable - age, Ks, and health are all on Barrios' side - but it'll be interesting to see what a not-old #2 is worth on the market.
scottt - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 08:25 AM EST (#409411) #
The Twins had given up on extending Berrios and traded him.
I guess they were closer to 15M/year.

Ryu comes off the books after 2023, so there is only 1 year of overlap.

Parker - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 08:35 AM EST (#409412) #
grjas, your comment went through my head almost verbatim when I heard about this trade. Good on Rogers for opening the chequebook, but man, that is a lot of years.

Hopefully now that the Jays have spent big in free agency three years in a row we won't have to hear as many complaints about Rogers being cheap as we did when the Jays only spent big in free agency two years in a row.
Parker - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 08:53 AM EST (#409413) #
Sorry, this wasn't technically a free agent signing. I am however still very impressed with the organization's willingness to spend money when it makes sense to do so. This last couple years has been really exciting for me as a fan.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 09:31 AM EST (#409414) #
Oh once Ray and/or Semien sign elsewhere I guarantee we'll hear 'Rogers is so cheap' 'wish we had a different owner' 'screw them'. Rogers is a profit based company - the Jays are a part of that. They know that 90+ wins = maximum revenue. Dance on the edge of the playoffs and you'll get a packed stadium, tons of viewers, and sell lots of merch. Be around 80 and you can break even, but won't be wildly profitable, be sub 80 for any stretch of time and things fall apart fiscally. But jump to 100 wins and you can't sell more than you do at 90 so why spend to get those extra 10 wins?

It is a fairly simple calculation. To be around 90 they need to be dancing around the top 10 in spending (historically) Last year the Jays were 12th $19 mil below the top 10 roughly, about $30 mil below the top 8 (about what I expect their maximum should be) which was Padres/Angels territory. The Dodgers, Yankees, Mets all cracked $200 mil based on this site. The Jays potentially could but have no incentive to do so. So the challenge for the front office is how to keep at 90+ with a payroll that is top 10 level, but not top 3 when you are in a division with the Yankees (#2) and Red Sox (#5) and Rays (who have institutional advantages such as competitive balance picks every year and other benefits the Jays can't access). IMO the Jays smartest move would be to switch divisions (radical realignment which could come soon) - put them in a division with Detroit (#24), Cleveland (#30), and others and 90+ gets much easier to achieve.
Glevin - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 09:35 AM EST (#409415) #
"They know that 90+ wins = maximum revenue. Dance on the edge of the playoffs and you'll get a packed stadium, tons of viewers, and sell lots of merch. Be around 80 and you can break even, but won't be wildly profitable"

Expanded playoffs are probably coming in which case the dancing around 80 wins will be the new 90 wins. Make the playoffs and anything can happen.
AWeb - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 10:06 AM EST (#409416) #
Love the deal - not my money, and ~20 million a year for a starting pitcher is barely over the qualifying offer threshold. If Berrios stays healthy he's worth it easily, and it's a very tradable contract (reasonable health assumed) if everything goes south for the team. Berrios isn't totally dependent on throwing top-end gas, throws 4 pitches >10% of the time. Not much not to like health-wise.

I don't think there is a competitive threshold for the Jays where everything falls apart as far as the profitability goes.  I would wager that revenue sharing and broadcast revenue gets the team pretty close to break even before a ticket is purchased, and that goes for every team. The billionaires/groups owning teams haven't been falling over themselves trying to sell franchises in the past decade, and the mega-rich would crawl over each other's corpses to sell teams if it meant saving themselves money, or somehow making more. More wins means more profit, and I'm not sure that a 90 win team maxes that out. A team that is selling out games at 90 wins can always charge more for tickets at 100 wins, or sell the ads for more, sell more merch, etc. Make the team as good as you can, and if you accidentally build a juggernaut, thems the breaks I guess.
bpoz - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 10:48 AM EST (#409417) #
Thanks for the profit analysis.

If team payroll happens to be $135mil or $185mil (make it fixed please) AND both/either payroll Jays teams win 85, 90 or 95 games. How do revenues increase or decrease.

Other factors:

1) The "year before" the team won 85 games OR 95 games. The 95 win team with a little hype can generate revenues better I believe.

2) We win the off season for example by signing Springer and trading for Lindor and subsequently dropped from 90 wins the previous year to 85 wins. Please ignore the prospect capital lost and the payroll flexibility lost. Also we "stood pat" for next year because it is too complicated financially to figure out.

3) We have a stud pitcher on his way to the HOF example Scherzer with a tiny ERA and a 10-2 record in 15 starts OR a power hitter on his way to 60 HR this current year OR 2 OFs on their way to 45 SBs each because they have a high OBP. So most exciting Jays baseball ever for example the pitcher accidently makes an errant pickoff at 1B or a passed ball and the speedsters go from 2nd to home and 1st to 3rd.

bpoz - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 12:22 PM EST (#409418) #
QO offer decisions to accept/reject have a 5pm deadline today.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 12:36 PM EST (#409419) #
Generally attendance is a year off of win totals unless there is a big boost pre-season. Season ticket sales are a big part of it for teams. Lets divide up Jays history a bit...
  • 1977-1982: starting out, declining attendance (per game) each season with a tiny blip up in 1982 (first year they weren't alone in last place)
  • 1983-1988: the first great era - attendance climbed every year but the last (barely down but best ever not counting '87 to that point)
  • 1989-1994: SkyDome opens, first WS wins - then the strike hits. New Jays attendance record on a per game basis each year
  • 1995-2005: stagnation - attendance drops from 1994's 50k per game to 21k in 2000 as fans give up on the team, then it stays around that level through 2005
  • 2006-2012: the end of the JPR years - the team tries to contend but fails. 28/29k per game for 3 years then fans give up again and attendance drops to 18k per in 2010, the first and only time sub 20k per game since 1982 (except COVID years of course). 2011/12 a rebuild starts and fans slowly trickle back in
  • 2013-2017: fans start to feel hope again, then finally get rewarded first with some big trades and spending pre 2013 (winning the offseason) then finally a division title in 2015 and crowds really come back with 30k+ in all of these seasons for the first time since 1998, and 40k+ in 2016 - the first since 1994. This shows the owners that fans will support the team if it is a winner.
  • 2018/19: rebuild time, attendance drops to 21k in 2019 despite the Vlad hype.
  • 2020/21: COVID. Team makes playoffs and then barely misses. Selling pretty close to every ticket available once fans are allowed back in.
For 2022 the big question is will COVID be nearly dead so crowds can be back or will it be a mess again? If crowds allowed and minimal COVID restrictions needed I expect 40k+ per game. Lets hope.
grjas - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 01:26 PM EST (#409420) #
Rogers situation is an interesting one compared to other teams. On the one hand, they have a fairly significant disadvantage by earning a good part of their revenue- tickets and tv advertising- in C$ when the majority of their costs are in US$. Simplistically, a 160mm US$ payroll is $200mm C$, and has been in that range for years. In that simplified example, If C$ we’re at par, they could come close to Yankee spending levels without impacting profitability. But that ain’t happening any time soon.

On the flip side, sports channels are a huge positive for Rogers: in the streaming era, they are a big incentive for customers to stay with cable. No doubt, they factor that effect into their payroll decisions.

I’ve never been a real lover of the company- their customer service is very uneven and they overpriced based on global comparators- but they are a logical owner in a country where few billionaires are interested in vanity ownerships.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 02:04 PM EST (#409421) #
Ken Rosenthal was on the MLB Network and talked about Justin Verlander. Mentioned that he has a preference to go to a team that trains in Florida, and the Blue Jays are "most certainly" in (along with the Yankees and the Red Sox). He was guessing that it would come down to those 3 teams. Losing a pick for Verlander would be more sensible than losing one for Syndergaard since a team could probably get Verlander for multiple years. The Jays apparently made an offer higher than the QO for Syndergaard so the interest in Verlander is not surprisng. I would imagine the Jays offer would have to be significantly better than NY's or Boston's for him to choose Toronto, though.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 03:13 PM EST (#409422) #
I suspect for the Jays it would take 3 years to get Verlander at $20+ million per. The sane approach is a 2 year deal for him, but the general rule is the Jays need to tack on an extra year to draw in the top players. That would be for age 39/40/41 seasons. His most similar on BR is Greinke which tells us nothing, but next is Mussina who pitched great at age 39 (his only 20 win season, 131 ERA+ over 200 IP) but then retired. In truth we won't find much to compare to. At that age there are few pitchers still going so signing him to a 2+ year deal is a massive risk. Nolan Ryan, an inferior pitcher, won an ERA title at 40 and pitched until age 46 - 39-41 was 113 ERA+ over 609 IP, but he was a freak of nature. Randy Johnson - 132 ERA+ over 585 IP, Greg Maddux 104 ERA+ over 633 IP. R.A. Dickey 101 ERA+ over 599 IP. Roger Clemens 118 ERA+ over 606 IP. That gives an idea of best cases. Guys who were strong late in their careers. Odds are he'd be a 100-110 ERA+ guy who eats a fair number of innings but not 200+ given his 2 years off. But there is a chance the guy we saw in 2019 (Cy Young winner) is still there and with 2 years of recovery/rest his arm is now ready to do that again. But dang it would be a massive risk.
grjas - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 05:26 PM EST (#409423) #
This is a great article but Robbie Ray and how he matured as a person. Makes you want him Back all the more.
grjas - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 05:32 PM EST (#409424) #
Should say “about Robbie Ray”. No discussion of his but, butt or tight pants.
Nigel - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 06:13 PM EST (#409425) #
Verlander to Astros - 1/$25, with a player option. Rosenthal wasn't close on this one.
scottt - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 06:14 PM EST (#409426) #
The opt out is interesting.
Shapiro has said in the past the he doesn't like opt outs.
Years 6 and 7 are basically player options.

Other than the length, it's exactly the same yearly money they gave to Ryu, but with some escalators.

mathesond - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 07:00 PM EST (#409427) #
Congrats to Robbie 'Cy' Ray.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 07:23 PM EST (#409428) #
Dan Szymborski has posted 7 year ZiPS projections for Berrios.  They are exactly what you would expect- more of the same for the first few years and a slower than typical deterioration with age. 
SK in NJ - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 07:23 PM EST (#409429) #
Verlander gets 1/25 and then a player option for $25M. I'll go out on a limb and say that no other team was going to match that, much less exceed it. Smart call on his part to take that deal.

Syndergaard gets 1/21 coming off TJS and Verlander gets either 1/25 or 2/50 (worst case) coming off TJS. Both haven't pitched in two years. The SP market might be a tad competitive this winter.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 17 2021 @ 07:38 PM EST (#409430) #
That article by Szymborski is very interesting also because of his comment on the US cable sport stations melting down. Haven't heard of that issue here in Canada, and that makes the Jays even more valuable to Rogers as it locks in tons of hours of product for whatever the team costs them. US cable stations were paying $100+ mil a year for the rights to a team, and never with the potential audience the Jays have. If that melt down happens then teams in the US (especially non-NY ones) will suddenly have less money and free agents will make a lot less in a couple of years. Could make Vlad & Bo a bit more affordable as the Jays seem to not be in a rush to sign them, nor they to sign a long term deal. Lets hope. I want both of them to be Jays for their whole careers.
scottt - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 08:23 AM EST (#409431) #
Great acceptance speech from Asher Ray.
bpoz - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 08:42 AM EST (#409432) #
AFL last night Leo Jimenez 3 hits played 2B. Moreno played 3B 1 bb. Spraker 1IP still no runs given up.
85bluejay - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 09:26 AM EST (#409433) #
Thumbs up on the Berrios extension especially since Berrios while playing in Minnesota was quoted as saying he owed it to future players to go to FA to set his market value - I wonder if the sentiment that younger players are expected to get a bigger slice of the pie in the next CBA to counter the move away from paying veterans for past performance played a role with Berrios and his agent.
Chuck - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 09:34 AM EST (#409434) #
especially since Berrios while playing in Minnesota was quoted as saying he owed it to future players to go to FA to set his market value

He signed this extension entering his final year of arbitration. He wasn't slated to shop himself as a free agent until this time next year.

85bluejay - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 10:00 AM EST (#409435) #
I think there are very few players in baseball who are "untouchable" - As someone who is wary of Vlad's ability to upkeep his conditioning and would not want his extension to go past his age 32 season (which probably means goodbye in 4 years),I'd be open to moving him (in vast minority I know) for pitching in particular - I don't know if Miami would do a Vlad for Sandy Alcantara/Trevor Rogers and Max Meyer? I think position players are easier to attract to Toronto and while you can't replace Vlad, I'd try to sign Kyle Schwarber/Michael Conforto and trade for Jesse Winker to play 1B/LF, which would also add some LH balance to the lineup.
85bluejay - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 10:02 AM EST (#409436) #
Chuck, I'm aware he had another year before FA - What's your point?
85bluejay - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 10:15 AM EST (#409437) #
Chuck, I meant that the Jays managing to get Berrios to forgo FA next year is a feather in their cap.
Chuck - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 11:07 AM EST (#409438) #
I misunderstood your post. I thought you were celebrating Berrios' decision to stick to his convictions and maximize his return by pursuing free agency (with the betterment of future players in mind, of course, not his own personal bank account).
Thomas - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 11:16 AM EST (#409439) #
85BlueJay, I appreciate you acknowledge you were in a vast minority, but to say I would be displeased if the Jays traded Vlad for Rogers (or even Alcantara) and Meyer would be a vast, vast, understatement.

Old friend Jonathan Davis has signed a minor league contract with Milwaukee.
bpoz - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 11:34 AM EST (#409440) #
TB can trade any of their young star players. I don't think that Toronto can. If the return does not pay off immediately there will be a lot of complaining IMO. I doubt Vlad gets moved.
AWeb - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 11:41 AM EST (#409441) #
Berrios got a surprising (to me) number of Cy young votes...but it does appear he was legitimately a top-10 AL pitcher last year. Huh.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 11:53 AM EST (#409442) #
I am predicting that Atkins/Shapiro lock up Vlad and Bo to long term deals next offseason once the new CBA is completed. I don't see any reason why Vlad would slack up on his conditioning after the season he had while being in good shape.

I also think it would be a horrible idea to trade a player who is doing at age 22 what a lot of stars don't begin to achieve until age 25 or 26, not to mention he will probably only get better in the coming years. The Rays operate by trading players once they start to get expensive, but it's also a good way to alienate the fan base.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 12:03 PM EST (#409443) #
I wondered how Bo Bichette's comparables did in their 30s.  If you use BBRef, the answer is not so well.  His comparables are Corey Seager, Nomar Garciaparra, Yogi Berra, Hanley Ramirez, Gleyber Torres, Robinson Cano, Tony Lazzeri, Troy Tulowitzki (!), Earl Williams and Asdrubal Cabrera.  A couple of Hall of Famers there and a couple who are just starting out, but half of them did not age well.

If you look at Vlad Jr.'s BBRef comps and exclude outfielders, you have Hal Trosky, Miguel Cabrera, Boog Powell and Eddie Murray.  Trosky's career was essentially ended by migraines.  Cabrera and Murray carried on into their late 30s well, and Boog Powell was good til 33.  Frank Thomas doesn't make the list of comps because he didn't come up until late in his age 22 season, but really he's closer than any of them.  Big Frank also carried on well into his late 30s.  The downside would be someone like Prince Fielder. 

I'd be happy to take my chances on both of them.  I think that they've got 70-80 WAR between them from age 28-35 (27-35 in VGJ's case).  That will cover a lot of coin. 

bpoz - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 12:21 PM EST (#409444) #
When a player is in the batters box it does not matter what position he plays on the field. I remember George Brett and Rod Carou being very hard to get out. I cannot remember how Jack Morris and Dave Stieb (2 great pitchers) did against these 2 hitters. Can Vlad beat the best pitchers? If so we can win World Series. But with stronger pitching.

I want to make NYY and Boston fans miserable.
SK in NJ - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 01:01 PM EST (#409445) #
Vlad is either going to leave as a free agent or sign a long extension. There is likely no in between. He's not getting traded as long as the team is in any sort of competitive window, and barring some really questionable moves in the next few years, this team should be highly competitive in 2022-25, and that's without even factoring expanded playoffs.

An extension for Vlad is going to be somewhere between 12-15 years long if it's done either this winter or next winter. That is a long time, but likely what it will take to get him to forgo free agency in four years. The FO just gave a 7 year deal to a SP, so I have no doubt they'd give a Tatis-like extension to Vlad if both sides could agree to the numbers. The Bo extension is more interesting to me. I don't think he gets that "franchise player" extension that Tatis got, and he's a much riskier player in general due to his profile.
bpoz - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 01:06 PM EST (#409446) #
Franchise player SK. I like that.

Further to my post about great hitters like G Brett. They don't face a team's Ace every game BUT they get to play every game.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 02:32 PM EST (#409447) #
I think you'd get different opinions about the relative risk in the long-term of Bichette and Guerrero Jr. 

I'd list the factors favouring Bichette as:
- plays a position where he can move elsewhere and still have significant value,  if required by injury and hits enough whereas Guerrero Jr. can only become a DH
- no conditioning issues (but has tended to wear down as the season nears its end) and has a physique that does on average tend to wear better

I'd list the factors favouring Guerrero Jr. as
- he's such a good hitter, and excellent hitters last longer on average and can have significant value even as a DH.

I make it a wash. On balance, I'd prefer to have both until they are 36 or 37, recognizing that the cost in the last few years of their contracts might make it very challenging to compete unless they outperform expectations at those ages. 

vw_fan17 - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 03:30 PM EST (#409448) #
So, the Berrios deal, per MLBTR, IS backloaded - $24M per for seasons 6 and 7. If Berrios hits the accelerators in 2025/2026, then it could be up to $29M per for each season. So the deal, essentially, is:-Berrios for 15 (10 + 5 bonus), 15, 17, 18, 18, or 5 seasons for $83M (averages to $16.6/year)
-a 2-year player option for $24/year or $29/year, depending on 2025/2026
If he's playing well enough to opt out, we got a HUGE steal for $16.6 / year for 5 years. If he's horrible, we then have to still eat 2/48. Or, if he hits the accelerators, then we pay/overpay for 2/58.
Glevin - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 03:50 PM EST (#409449) #
I prefer Vlad long term to Bo although I'd rather have both. I just feel that Bo's (very) long-term skill set will not age well. He hits the ball very hard and he's a very good baserunner but for me, these are things that fall apart very quickly with even pretty minor decline (Lose a tiny bit of quickness) without surrounding skills. (Plate discipline, excellent defense). Vlad is a year younger and more valuable right now with higher ceiling and floor IMO. As I said, I'd love both but would take Vlad very easily if I had to pick one.
greenfrog - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 04:39 PM EST (#409450) #
The Trout, Tulowitzki, and Pujols extensions (the initial extensions, not the subsequent ones) could be a good way to go with Bo and Vladdy. Pay them a lot of money to buy out two or three FA seasons (maybe with a team option for an additional year). I think I might prefer that to a massive contract that runs into the player’s late 30s or early 40s.
greenfrog - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 05:02 PM EST (#409451) #
Speaking of extensions, MLBTR reports that the Rays have made Franco an extension offer in the range of 10+ years and $150-200m.

Interestingly, that’s roughly the term I suggested the Jays offer to Vlad a couple of years ago. I think I suggested 10/300 or thereabouts (which might have been an overpay, but same general idea).
dalimon5 - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 05:10 PM EST (#409452) #
"I think there are very few players in baseball who are "untouchable" - As someone who is wary of Vlad's ability to upkeep his conditioning and would not want his extension to go past his age 32 season (which probably means goodbye in 4 years),I'd be open to moving him (in vast minority I know) for pitching in particular - I don't know if Miami would do a Vlad for Sandy Alcantara/Trevor Rogers and Max Meyer? I think position players are easier to attract to Toronto and while you can't replace Vlad, I'd try to sign Kyle Schwarber/Michael Conforto and trade for Jesse Winker to play 1B/LF, which would also add some LH balance to the lineup."

I'm in this boat. If Rogers won't spend the payroll to be at the top of the league (and why would they?) then I would strengthen my team over 2-3 positions by trading one player, again, if the only way to keep him means a lengthy contract which doesn't fit my team. The way I see it, if we keep Bo and Vlad then it likely means we can't keep Hernandez and eventually Manoah. I don't think Vlad will come for anything less than 30 million/year. Spending $125 million on 5 players probably won't work long term if your budget isn't above $250 million annually.

Vlad $30
Springer $25
Bo $25
Berrios $20
Hernandez $20
John Northey - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 06:00 PM EST (#409453) #
I think the question is what will a top 10 payroll be in 5 years. The Jays are a top 5 market who spends like a top 10, which is OK. So the challenge is what will top players be making in 5 years? I suspect $40 mil per will be not uncommon by then unless serious slowdowns on payroll happen (such as regional sports networks going kaput in the US due to streaming) as those are the golden geese right now. The Jays are owned by their RSN (Sportsnet) which has a half decent online presence right now - $200 a year roughly and I get all the Jays games (plus hockey, basketball, and other stuff). Or for free if you have cable. A bit more than Netflix but I can live with it. I miss though (now blocks Canadians from watching the Jays...idiotic but done to save RSN's in the US for now).
John Northey - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 08:00 PM EST (#409454) #
Details from Cot's on Berrios' new contract...
  • 7 years/$131M (2022-28)
  • signed extension with Toronto 11/18/21 (avoided arbitration)
  • $5M signing bonus (paid $2.5M each 1/31/22 and 4/30/22)
  • 22:$10M, 23:$15M, 24:$17M, 25:$18M, 26:$18M, 27:$24M, 28:$24M
  • Berrios may opt out of contract after 2026 season
  • 2027-28 salaries may increase up to $5M each season:
    $1M each for 300, 350 combined innings pitched in 2025-26
    $500,000 each for 375, 400 combined IP in 2025-26
    $2M each for Cy Young award in 2025 or 2026, $1.5M each for second-fifth place in 2025 or ’26 Cy Young vote, $750,000 each for sixth-10th place in 2025 or ’26 Cy Young vote
  • limited no-trade protection
So it only gets expensive if he gets hurt/is ineffective so he takes up those options to make some money, or if he pitches extremely well thus gets the bonuses (which would be great). I suspect by 27/28 a $24 mil annual salary will be a lot like a $15 mil one now for pitchers unless something drastic changes as salaries have been jumping lately (top pitchers get $30-$40 mil a year now) and often after a new agreement is made between players and owners we see a big jump as teams having the certainty of what the rules are sign up whoever they need quickly.
greenfrog - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 08:46 PM EST (#409457) #
BA today on Spraker:

Graham Spraker, RHP, Blue Jays – The AFL season is almost over and Spraker still has yet to allow a run. The 26-year-old righthander made his 11th scoreless appearance of the fall in Mesa’s 3-2 loss to Glendale, stranding a runner on third to end the ninth inning and keep his scoreless streak alive. After allowing a leadoff single to Jacob Amaya, Spraker quickly retired the next three batters and finished with a strikeout of Astros No. 1 prospect Korey Lee. Overall, Spraker has thrown 11.1 innings with four hits allowed, two walks and 17 strikeouts.
scottt - Thursday, November 18 2021 @ 09:16 PM EST (#409459) #
Berrios explained why he signed. The city, the fans, the team, etc...

It's too early to project Vlad and Bichette. You got 3 dots on a graphs with huge error bars.
They both could still get better but Vlad will get heavier and Bo had  that knee injury last year.

I see a lot riding on the next wave of prospects.
Moreno, Groshans, Lopez and Smith should all contribute in some way next year.

The pitching side is more up in the air, but they only need one starter.
Strengthening the pen is more a luxury than a need.

Pardinho could surprise the way Manoah did, but I'm weary of a rule 5 pick.
Then there is Bowden Francis and Curtis Taylor.

bpoz - Friday, November 19 2021 @ 09:04 AM EST (#409463) #
Thursday in the AFL we played the worst team in the league and won. 4 (44 pitches) inning shutout by Matt Dominguez. Horwitz did nothing playing 1B. Moreno 1H at DH.
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