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On to Missouri!

This will be the fourth time the Jays have played the Cardinals in St. Louis, and the third time they've done so at Busch Stadium III, where they have a decent enough 4-2 record (thanks mainly to sweeping a three game set back in 2011.) This was the scene of the action when these teams last met, back in April 2017. The Jays won the first of three in a game that saw Brett Cecil pitch against the Blue Jays for the first time - he came out for the ninth with the scored tied at 4-4. He walked Pillar leading off, personally moved him to third base with an errant pickoff attempt, and surrendered an RBI single to Jose Bautista. But Roberto Osuna couldn't hold the lead in the bottom of the inning, and extras were needed. It ended with Marcus Stroman pinch-hitting for Jason Grilli with one out in the eleventh and lining a double to left field. He scored the go-ahead run on a throwing error by Aledmys Diaz and Ryan Tepera stranded Randal Grichuk on second to get the save. Lots of fun, no?

But the real reason we remember that game?

Coghlan's Leap, of course. Surely a piece of derring-do that will live in our hearts forever. Did it inspire the team to greater things going forward? It did not. The Cardinals won in 11 the next day on a walkoff grand slam struck by Matt Carpenter off J.P. Howell, and Adam Wainwright beat Casey Lawrence in the finale.

We won't see Wainwright in this set, which is a shame. He's 40 years old, and he's still really good. Wainwright, I've decided, is to his time more or less what Cy Young, Warren Spahn, and Don Sutton were in their times. Never the best pitcher around, but always one of the best, and someone who lasted while entire generations of pitchers came and went. Despite his late start (he was 25 years old when he took his spot in the rotation), despite losing most of three seasons to injury and much of another to global pandemic, he may even make it to 200 career wins this season. Spahn and Sutton are honoured at Cooperstown and if they're in you would surely think... (well, he'll have to wait his turn behind Max and Clayton and Justin and Zack, of course.)

Yadier Molina has a pretty decent Hall of Fame case his own self - the ten All-Star games, the nine Gold Gloves, the two championships don't exactly hurt. Ivan Rodriguez, Carlton Fisk, and Bob Boone are the only men to have caught more games in the majors. Boone  was in many ways quite similar to Molina, just not as good, and Boone was a very fine player for a very long time.

We probably also need to start thinking about the Hall cases of Nolan Arenado, who turned 31 last month and will probably clear 300 career homers before the season is out (he already has nine Gold Gloves) and Paul Goldschmidt, born the very same day as our own beloved Eephus but blessed with a more impressive power stroke.

Albert Pujols, it seems safe to say, goes in on the first ballot. In his old age, Albert is pretty much helpless against RH pitching but even in his dotage he can still inflict pain on a southpaw.

The Cardinals startled us all last October when they dismissed manager Mike Shildt, after a professional career spent entirely in the Cardinals organization and (more to the point) after a 90-72 season that ended with them losing the Wild Card game to the mighty Dodgers. "Philosophical differences " were stated as the reason, and bench coach Oliver Marmol was promoted to the big chair. Marmol is the youngest manager in the majors - he spent five years managing at low levels in the minors before spending the last five years as a major league coach.

The Cardinals have been puttering along, rather like the Blue Jays - the pitching has been getting it done, the hitters (until yesterday) not so much. The aformentioned Paul Goldschmidt has practically been an offense all by himself. He, Arenado, and second baseman Tommy Edman have been hitting. But the rest of them... well, it hasn't been so good. Shortstop Paul DeJong and his .130/.209/.208 batting line has been banished to AAA Memphis, and rookie Brendan Donovan - a second baseman by trade - has been getting most of the starts at shortstop.

Our erstwhile chum Steven Matz came out of today's start after throwing just four pitches with shoulder stiffness. Angel Rondon and T.J. McFarland picked him up with eight innings of shutout relief while the Cardinals pounded out 20 hits and took an 18-0 lead into the ninth inning. So Yadier Molina pitched the ninth inning, hoping to best the pitching performance of Albert Pujols, who had closed out a similar Cardinals blowout a couple of weeks back. But like Albert, Molina allowed four otherwise meaningless ninth inning runs and must likewise endure the infamy of a 36.00 career ERA.

Matchups? OK...

Mon 23 May - Berrios (3-2, 4.83) vs Mikolas (3-2, 1.68)
Tue 24 May - Gausman (3-3, 2.52) vs Hicks (1-3, 4.21)

Hey, look who showed up to see the first game!

Toronto at St. Louis, May 23-24 | 115 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
John Northey - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#414064) #
The St Louis Cardinals are the model of how to run a franchise long term. Last time they were under 500 was 2007 (78-84), and before that 1999. 1994-95 was the last time they had 2 sub 500 years in a row. Last time they lost 90+ was 1978 (the 2nd year of the Blue Jays). Only 4 times have they lost 100+ - 1897, 1898, 1907, 1908. 1978 (69-93)was their worst season since 1913 - when Babe Ruth wasn't even a pro-ballplayer (18 years old). Now _that_ is impressive.

IE: The Cardinals have not lost as many as the Jays did in 2019 (95) since before Babe Ruth was a professional athlete. So much for the 'you gotta tear down and rebuild' theory given the Cards have 12 WS wins (one tie in the pre-WS WS of 1885). Last won in 2011, in the playoffs the last 3 years in a row. They missed the playoffs for 3 years in a row MAX since their ugly 1988-1995 slump. Otherwise no more than 3 years off since 1982 (well before the wild card).

Hoping the Jays can pound them (just for a change of pace) tonight and tomorrow.
hypobole - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#414065) #
Yes St. Louis is a model franchise. But they are in a different sphere than the Jays.

Since 2000, their 4 division opponents have won 90 games 14 times. Total. That's the same as the Red Sox, alone. The Yankees have 15 90 win seasons. The Rays 8 in that span of time.

They always draw 3 million. And as Keith Law put it, because they have the best fans in baseball, MLB gives them an extra draft pick every year.
Mike Green - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#414066) #
Bradley Zimmer gets a start tonight with Springer DHing.  Progress.  I expect that if the club gives him a regular 4th outfielder's load, he'll hit about as well as last year (when he generated 1.2 WAR in 348 PA). 

Magpie's comments about Wainwright had me thinking.  Which Blue Jay currently on the 26 man will deliver the best season by bWAR at age 40?  My money is on Alek Manoah.  It's certainly unconventional to bet on a pitcher, but Manoah is a special case.  If they sign him to some kind of very long contract at the end of this year, I'll be the first to applaud.  Manoah turns 40 in 2038, but VGJ turns 40 the next year when I turn 80. 
John Northey - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#414067) #
But also pre-2000 they were a model. Never losing 95+ in the old NL East which could be a beast at times, and before '69 in the full NL (no divisions) still never losing 95+ unless you go back to the 1910's. That is crazy.

The bonus draft pick makes sense if you are giving any advantage to smaller markets - they just happen to have made full use of their market and breed a big fanbase. It takes more than wins (ask the Rays) it takes getting fans involved. The Jays did a great job of that back in the 70's - I remember as a little kid doing a paper route (Globe and Mail) getting a Blue Jays set (duffle bag, hat, other stuff) which I loved even though I didn't know anything about baseball yet. The Jays used to do caravans all over Ontario so fans could meet the players, then did them cross-country. In the 90's they stopped when Interbrew cut the budget on everything. I think they restarted under Beeston/AA and still were doing them pre-COVID, and hopefully get them going full speed again this winter. That is why the Jays have a core of about 1.5 million for attendance no matter what vs the Rays who have cracked 2 million only once, and 1.5 a total of 8 times. No idea if they do any fan outreach but clearly they are doing a LOT wrong down there - to have a consistent winner and be unable to get even 2 million fans out is pathetic. This year they are sub 10k a game, Jays over 30k, St Louis 38k.

Not counting 2020 the last time St Louis averaged sub 20k was 1981 (the strike year). Sub 10k was 1945 (WWII, 2 teams in St Louis). Jays ignoring 2020/21 were last sub 20k in 2010 (barely), then 1982. Only sub 1 million in 1981 (strike cost 1/3rd of games), 2020 and 2021. 2020 was the only year sub 10k per game in Jays history (0 attendance of course). For Tampa sub 10k was last year, 30k just their first year, 20k in 2008-2010 (their first 3 years of contending ever). Yeah, their park sucks, yeah, it is in a lousy location. But winning teams tend to overcome that stuff automatically. And with some effort they could overcome it too I'm sure. Colorado cracked 4 million fans by having $1 tickets in the horrid 10 miles from home plate seats in their early years (it was a football park that looked it), the Jays overcame Exhibition Stadium (cold, windy, benches for seats in a lot of it, many seats faced the OF so you had to sit sideways to see home plate, seagulls would be all over the place, etc.) But Tampa can't overcome their dome. Sigh.
John Northey - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#414068) #
Mike Green - I was thinking the same thing. Manoah is a good candidate for a long term deal given a) he isn't a legacy player (IE: probably isn't wealthy already), b) is built like a horse, c) extremely good very young. I wouldn't be opposed the Jays giving him a lowball offer - say $100 mil over 10 years (if healthy by free agency he'd be getting 3 times that easily). If he takes it, great. If not, so be it.
Polite Nate - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#414069) #
They gave Zimmer 2 weeks of rope earlier in the season and he looked unplayable to me. Then 2 weeks of pinch running and 9th inning subs until the start in Cincinnati in which he actually did ok. I'd be curious if they were working on anything in particular in the break or if this is just a question of taking turns waiting for someone to take the job and run.

Collins finally optioned, looks like. A lot of talk in the media when he had the hot start that the White Sox had constantly been tinkering with his swing and that Toronto was just letting him be him. Turns out the guys in Chicago might have had a good reason for it. I still have hope there's room for improvement but not enough hope that I want to watch it on TV every night.
lexomatic - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#414071) #
<br>I think that's the first CS I've seen this season.
I missed Zimmer's double. Hopefully he hits enough tobsupplsnt Tapia. Didn't realize how much he strick out, but at least in the past he walked a bit too.

Magpie - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#414072) #
Which Blue Jay currently on the 26 man will deliver the best season by bWAR at age 40?

The best bet, obviously, would be no one.
Nigel - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#414073) #
Playing Zimmer tonight was the exact right time to use him (Berrios on the mound and a RH started). Progress. Cutting Collins - progress. Both a little late but progress. No complaints from me.
Magpie - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#414074) #
The St Louis Cardinals are the model of how to run a franchise long term.

Better than most, I suppose. There have been ups and downs. They were a joke for most of their first 30 years in the NL, but by 1920 Sam Breadon owned the team and had put Branch Rickey in charge. Rickey built the first farm system and his Cardinals won nine pennants and six championships in about 20 years. Very nice.

But Rickey moved on to Brooklyn, Breadon got old, and Gussie Busch took over and basically mismanaged the team for most of the next thirty years. The Busch years are especially noteworthy for squandering the last two-thirds of Stan Musial's career. Bing Devine did build a great team in the 1960s that won three pennants and two championships in five years. Unfortunately, Busch had fired him just before the winning started.

Finally, Busch got too old to get in the way. Whitey Herzog built a great team in the 1980s, and they've generally been good ever since.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#414075) #
In 2010, the Cardinals visited Toronto a few days before the G-20 summit. (The next series against the Phillies was moved to Philadelphia, with Toronto as the home team.)

There was a security zone that encompassed the stadium. I was afraid to go downtown! And I never saw the Cards.
lexomatic - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#414076) #
Wow that bottom 9th. Gritting my teeth.
Chuck - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#414077) #
I thought roster sizes increased to 26 this season but there was a proviso limiting pitching staffs to 13. Do I have this wrong?

The Jays should have 4 position players on the bench but I counted only Tapia, Jansen and Capra tonight.

Eephus - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#414078) #
'Genesis' Cabrera? Well if he throws it down the middle, maybe at long last supper's ready for the Jays hitters...
Eephus - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#414079) #
Nevermind. The lamb died down on Broadway.

(Hey, I need something to distract me from this maddening offense)
Chuck - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#414080) #
maybe at long last supper's ready

So not so much "I know a fireman who looks after the fire"?

Chuck - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#414081) #
Nevermind. The lamb died down on Broadway.

So "the same old ending, time to go"? (Hey, I can play this game all night.)

Eephus - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#414082) #
Old Albert Pujols coming up in this big spot does make for a good cinema show...

Listen to the old one speak, of all he has been through
Magpie - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#414083) #
Easy, now. Sit you down.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#414084) #
As it happens, the lineup could use a left-handed drummer.
Magpie - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#414085) #
This is the supper of the mighty one.
uglyone - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#414086) #
Bit my tongue hoping for better but the top of the order wasting the free RISP in extras was doomsday.
John Northey - Monday, May 23 2022 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#414087) #
As a long time baseball fan who has seen stuff like this before I know it will end and the Jays will start scoring like mad at some point, but geez guys can we do it before all of us fans go insane? Knowing something is dumb luck thus not worrying about it, and enduring watching it are two different things.
scottt - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 06:04 AM EDT (#414089) #
They sent Collins down for a pitcher, but by the end of the month they'll have to go back to 13 and 13.
Not that Capra is getting any meaningful playing time either. 5 ABs so far.

lexomatic - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#414091) #
Quick look at Guerrero's numberslowest launch angle of his career by far - 3.9%2nd highest groundball % of his career - over 50%highest med and lowest hard hit % of careerhighest DP ratelast y ear he destroyed FB (40 runs ) Cutters (6) Curves (6) and was neutral vs change (0.1)this year FB (0.2) Cutter (0.5) Curve (-1) Change (-3.1)
 I dunno what that says. Is it evidence of pressing, or is that all chasing stats? His BB/K is more similar to how it ended last yearhis outside swing % is highest at 36% swing % highest at 50.9 outside contact 2nd highest at 63.2 highest contact rate at 88.9! lowest zone rate 37.4%Definitely looks like hes pressing a bit and swinging at stuff he shouldn't.
Gerry - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#414092) #
Another oh for ten with RISP on Monday. One run was via a home run and two were bases loaded walks. It's get ridiculous now with their futility.

Vlad hasn't had a hit in almost a week, last Tuesday was his last.
lexomatic - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#414094) #
I forgot Guerrero hasn't pulled the ball as much - career worst 29%. Don't know if he's just off or not getting around on the ball. So I think thr lack of pulling is affecting the launch angle somewhat, but i havent looked at heat maps to see if they're pitching him outside. Making it inadvisable to pull
John Northey - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#414095) #
The TV announcers have said that he is getting pitched a LOT more outside and the umps have been calling a lot of pitches strikes that are just outside from what I've seen (need to find a site that can show that). Brooks Baseball tracks a lot of that stuff and summarizes it (used to have the raw data but it is now part of Baseball Prospectus so I figure behind a pay wall now). Vlad is exceptionally aggressive vs Offspeed Pitches and Breaking Pitches. Vs Fastballs he has a steady approach at the plate. Against all 3 he has a league average tendency to swing and miss.
Glevin - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#414096) #
I know firing coaches doesn't really do anything but I also think that if you're team is underperforming across the board like this for so long, there should be consequences and Martinez should probably be replaced. So many hitters are having awful approaches.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#414097) #
Usually we can point to a young team that needs leadership or veteran presence but that's not the case here. Springer has been doing an amazing job in that role. Our pitchers have also been absolutely incredible.

What I find interesting is that the team mojo seems to be very different. The team appears to have an attitude this year of "here we come, let's go." That's the vibe I get from watching the games and hearing the interviews. It's a very Springer-led type of mentality. On the other hand, last year, I saw more discipline and laid back moments under Semien. One example is Bo. This year he seems more aggressive and flashy... willing his way. Last year he was more fundamental in his approach at the plate and in the field playing next to Semien.

Espinal is one player who appears to have a more disciplined overall approach this year.
Cracka - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#414098) #
I think Vlady's 3 HR game against the Yankees was a turning point in how he's been pitched. Two of his HRs were on balls that missed inside, including a 98 mph Gerrit Cole fastball that was at least 3 inches off the plate. Every pitcher that he's faced since has likely watched the video of these at-bats and most have adjusted accordingly.

I also wonder if a change in coaches is coming. I think there's a 0% chance that Montoyo is going to be fired at this point, but it's also increasingly obvious that it's not just a case of "waiting for the hitters to heat up". Martinez has been with the Jays for over a decade and maybe it's time to bring in someone from the outside.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#414100) #
I wonder why the front office doesn't put more pressure on themselves to finally get a LH bat. We know they openly said this was one area they needed to improve in the off season along with pitching, but other than apparently going after Corey Seager, there wasn't much done in finding a capable LH bat to insert into the line up. They need to find a LHB who can be inserted in the top 5 spots.

Someone who can get on base at a solid clip who isn't so hot/cold like most of our line up. Vlad, Bo, Gurriel are becoming very streaky in their young careers. George Springer and Espinal appear to be our most consistent hitters (aside from the consistently bad hitters).
dalimon5 - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#414101) #
Oh yes, Nate Pearson is finally beginning to throw in games again. Shouldn't be long before he's up to help the relief corps.
electric carrot - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#414102) #
With the hitting I am still not worried but I my needle has moved up into the "definitely concerned" metric. My read is that once Hernandez and to a lesser degree Gurriel get back on track that low performers like Vladdy and Chapman will benefit and that we'll be back in business.
Ducey - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#414105) #
Maybe I am in the minority, but they need to get rid of Charlie. The priority seems to be on fun, not professionalism. He sets the tone on that.

Every game I see players swinging wildly at 1st pitches that are not hittable. That should not be happening at this point of the season.

There are teams that consistently do better with less due to their managers. I wish I could say the same with the Jays.
tercet - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#414107) #
Montoyo was never a good manager though, last night doesn't really change anything.
His man crush with bunting, giving Tapia ABs, or letting Borucki face RHB again and again, are just a few examples of why he isn't good as his job.
Glevin - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#414108) #
Don't think Charlie is doing anything wrong particularly. Tapia has played a lot because the alternative is Bradley Zimmer. Jays struggles are almost entirely because their entire lineup minis Espinal and Springer (And Jansen when healthy) is seriously underperforming. Vlad, Chapman, Teoscar, Gurrial, and Bo are all 20-100 points lower in WRC+ versus last year. Manager can't fix that.
scottt - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#414110) #
At this point, the left handed bat is a trade deadline deal.

It's not easy to find a playing spot for a left bat.
Third is set for this year and the next.
Espinal has been very good in second.
Bichette is set in short, Vlad at first.

Even if you get a guy who play LF and drop Gurriel, you probably want to play Springer in right.
I still think the best option is a platoon bat for DH.

dalimon5 - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#414111) #
"There are teams that consistently do better with less due to their managers."

Which teams are you referring to?

Montoyo is a manager in 2022...his roster construction, much like most managers in baseball today is likely determined by his bosses. If Dave Roberts needs an analytics assistant by his side in the dugout then all managers probably do (or have one relaying them the info).
92-93 - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#414112) #
Montoyo used his 9th RP in a tie game yesterday while his best RP sat and watched. Going to Borucki made no sense when the opponent could easily counter with a RHB. Meanwhile, on the other side of the field, the Cardinals used their closer in the top of the 8th inning. At least Charlie tried to let Berrios get a little deeper, he needs to do more of that with his SP.
Magpie - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#414113) #
His man crush with bunting, giving Tapia ABs, or letting Borucki face RHB again and again, are just a few examples of why he isn't good as his job.

The Jays bunt less often than the other AL teams. (You would hate Joe Maddon.) The majority of Tapia's ABs came when Hernandez was injured. Over the last three seasons, Borucki has faced 98 LH batters and 100 RH batters, which are exactly what the splits of a pitcher who is being shielded against RH batters will look like.

Disapprove if you will. Just find better reasons. Real ones.
Magpie - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#414114) #
What I didn't like about the bullpen usage last night was the sequence. One run game, tying run in scoring position - Cimber is not the guy I want. Richards is less likely to give up the hit that scores the run. (He's also much more likely to give up the home run that puts you behind, but nobody's perfect.)

Of course, the opposite has been true so far this season. But I generally really that the results of less than 20 IP probably aren't a sign that they've become different pitchers.
Magpie - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#414115) #
I generally really

I think. I think I'm generally better than that at deciding on the adverb and attaching it to the verb. Really. I think.
grjas - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#414116) #
When the hitters are playing poorly, every decision is magnified. The year long RISP issue has given them the batting equivalent of the yips, and it’s not getting any better. They are 3 for 40 over the last few games.

At the end of the day, the existing lineup has to turn things around as there’s nobody else but them that can do it. If they want inspiration, look to the recent Bosox turnaround that only has them 2 back in the loss column. Somehow, the hitters need to get their confidence back.
scottt - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#414118) #
Weird that and BBref have different OPS numbers for the same ABs.

Espinal has a higher OPS than Vlad right now. .779 vs .775.
Bo is at .658, behind Kirk at .668 which is only good for an OPS+ of 99.

Over the last 2 weeks, Chapman is hitting .158 with 1 homerun, Guerrero is .186 with none, Gurriel is .167 and Teoscar  is hitting .083 with 1 homerun.

That Zack collins went 0 for 8 and that Tapia is only hitting .267 through that is just noise.

Cracka - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#414119) #
The three biggest issues that I see with the bullpen are:
1. No reliable multi-inning guys. We have Stripling plus 8 one-inning guys; this is somewhat because of roster construction, but also due to very quick hooks with low pitch counts. For example last night: Cimber (5 pitches), Richards (12 pitches), Merryweather (7 pitches), and Phelps (17 pitches) all could have gone longer.
2. Insistence on a new reliever for a new inning. This one is on Montoyo & Walker - if they bring in a reliever mid-inning, it's usually only for 1 or 2 outs to get out of the inning. As a result, we often need 5-6 guys to get through 3-4 innings.
3. LOOGYs in a three-batter world. Borucki and Vasquez have been hammered by RH hitters and are very vulnerable in high leverage situations. I don't think either sticks long-term and sooner or later I expect we'll have a bullpen of 6 hard-throwing righties, plus Cimber, with Mayza as the lone LHP.
scottt - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#414121) #
I don't understand why Borucki has dropped his change up. That was his number 1 pitch against right bats.
He can succeed with the slider, but it's been a work in progress. He needs to bury it down inside like Ray/Kickuchi do. The stuff looks good enough, but I don't know about the blisters.

Gausman has gotten used to throwing with blisters.

Guys who are not coming off an off day are not likely to go multiple innings.
You can go 1 inning, 1 inning, one day off, rinse and repeat.
If you go 2 innings, you likely need a day off.
Let's have a look.
Romano threw 10 pitches on Friday, 16 on Sunday and had a day off, so might have been available for one inning. Or not. At home he should have pitched the 9th or the 10th if he was.
Cimber had a day off then threw 13 pitches, so was good for one inning but blew it on 5 pitches.
Garcia threw 21 pitches on Sunday, so likely not available.
Phelps threw 21 pitches on Sunday and 17 on Monday.  Should probably not have been used.
Richards threw 14 on Sunday and 12 on Monday.
Merryweather might have thrown in AAA.
Borucki threw only 4 pitches on Sunday, so was available on Monday.
Vazquez threw only 2 pitches on Sunday, so was available.
Stripling has not thrown since last Wednesday and probably needs some action but nothing too close.

The right move would be to try Stripling for at least a full pass through the rotation at a time, but  I wouldn't trust him in a winnable game.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#414122) #
Tapia back in the lineup tonight.  Presumably the notion is that Gurriel Jr. needs another day off as he isn't hitting well, and Montoyo doesn't want to give Zimmer a 2nd start in a row and move Hernandez to left-field. 

The evidence that Tapia is a better player than Zimmer is hard to find.  He sure has gotten a lot of chances. 
Nigel - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#414123) #
I also think its odd that Borucki has ditched his CH. It was formerly his best pitch. I think the reason is that he has dropped his arm angle since he moved to the pen and that has impacted his CH. Whether the change in arm slot is as a consequence of his arm injuries or to get better results with his SL I don't know.

I'm a leader of the "Tapia is worse than Zimmer and should get playing time accordingly" club (naming clubs was never my strong suit) so decisions like tonight don't make sense to me, but its all marginal stuff relative to the line-up wide hitting issues.
John Northey - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#414125) #
How about 'Time for Tapia to Tap Out' or TTTO :) Zimmer Time.

I just don't get the love for Tapia. I could see if if we saw more than 1 or 2 games in a row of production from him but we haven't seen any real signs that he is improving. Zimmer has shown signs though yet is benched. Looking at his game log the last time Tapia missed a full game was April 10th. He has more PA than Kirk (131 to 125), and played 9 more games than Zimmer with 83 more PA. It really makes no sense. Tapia is a 57 OPS+ hitter with worst on the team defense (according to FanGraphs) He is dead last on FanGraphs in both batting and fielding runs for the Jays. Zimmer is pretty bad with the bat so far (worse than Tapia on a per PA basis) but has also been a net positive with the glove (5th best on the team for defensive runs, despite the very limited playing time).

The Tapia experiment needs to end. The Jays need to accept he isn't what they hoped for (his 2020 version) and move on. Yeah, he isn't the biggest problem (RISP is) but dumping him would show that being the biggest negative contributor (with no track record of success) won't get you perpetual playing time.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#414126) #
I can't find much to recommend Montoyo myself. He's a constant tinkerer that always feels he has to make a move, and he hasn't shown any knack for those moves working out more often than not. And then the more moves he makes the less options he leaves himself with both in that game and in future games. Simply put our worst players end up playing much bigger and more crucial roles than they ever should.

He pulls starters and relievers quickly without notable success, he can't help but stick multiple bench bats in every game, and in general leaves everything looking and feeling just plain messy.

And why the hell is Rameil Tapia on pace for over 500 fricken plate appearances this year? That idiocy is on both Montoyo and the GMs.

92-93 - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#414127) #
There was a fascinating discussion in the last thread about fielders leaving their gloves by their position in between innings. The rule preventing it was spearheaded by Hank Greenberg in 1954. Some cool stories about the topic here:

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#414128) #
Not just gloves on the field, but jackets too.  I can just imagine a catcher dashing over to catch a foul pop and having to dodge left and right to avoid stepping on debris on the ground.  Sounds like a terrible idea to me.
Four Seamer - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#414129) #
I wonder if Montoyo’s propensity for getting his whole roster on the field - what my Dad exasperatingly refers to as Little League managing - is a function of his minor league experience, where getting a look at everyone on the squad is a big part of the job description.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#414130) #
Rougned Odor coming to bat in a key situation against the Yankees provokes such mixed emotions.  You want him to hit a 3 run homer and then (sorry to say) twist his ankle while taunting Anthony Rizzo while rounding the bases.  He just did the 3 run homer bit, but no word on his ankle. 
Polite Nate - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#414131) #
If that were true, we'd be seeing a lot more of Vinny Capra. And frankly, that would be better IMO. Rostering a player only to have them rot on the bench is a waste of a roster spot. The "play everyone on the roster" mentality only really applied in the days when the Jays were bad and looking to sift through the Druries and Britos of the world for hidden gems. Tapia/Zimmer are getting their playing time because Gurriel and Hernandez and Biggio have all been some combination of bad and hurt all season long.
Chuck - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#414132) #
You want him to hit a 3 run homer

Any stock tips, Nostradamus?

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#414133) #
No, I didn't predict an Odor homer.  The only stock tips I'm any good at giving are for soup.
grjas - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#414134) #
Finally a blow out. Hopefully just what they needed.
James W - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#414135) #
This "hitting" thing is fun. Let's do it more often.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#414136) #
Only the 2nd time since opening day the Jays have scored 8.
John Northey - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#414137) #
Boy, watching Dickerson reminds me that many of us here were not right that he'd have been a good guy to bring back. 42 OPS+ coming into today, then 0-4 so even worse now. Makes Tapia's 57 coming in (1-4 tonight) look decent. Ugh. Shows how hard it is to predict things sometimes.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#414138) #
"Only the 2nd time since opening day the Jays have scored 8."

hypobole - Tuesday, May 24 2022 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#414139) #
Largest margin of victory this year.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 03:20 AM EDT (#414140) #
" Only the second time since opening day the Jays have scored 8."

Third time. They beat Cleveland 8-3 on May 7.
scottt - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 06:49 AM EDT (#414141) #
And then off to Angel Stadium, for 4 games that I won't be able to watch live because they'll be played in the night.
After missing 3 games for lack of electricity, that sucks even more than usual.

But an off day first.

The Jays are 23-20, still good for an extended playoffs spot but just a couple in front of Boston with a losing record of 20-22. Baltimore is not that far behind this time 18-26, but the Rays are not that far in front either 25-17.

In the AL central, to my surprise,  the Twins are comfortably in first place 27-16. The White Sox are just 21-21 and the Guardians are 18-21. The Tigers and Royals are tied at 14-28. I think everybody was expecting more from Detroit, but it's still early.

In the West, the Astros are first 28-16, the Angels are close behind them at 27-17. It looks like their pitching has been solid, which I would not have predicted and their best hitter has been and outfielder not named Trout or Adell. Yeah, it's still early. The Rangers are only 18-23, despite spending a ton of money. The Mariners are in 4th, 18-26 after spending in an attempt to finally reach the playoffs. Lots of long faces and impending management shuffle? Too early to tell. The A's are not really worse at 18-27. That one everyone saw coming at least.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#414142) #
In his career (including post-season), Danny Jansen has hit 40 home runs in 868 PAs.  That's a cool 30 HRs/650 PA season.  No wonder ZiPS projects him as 128 wRC+ player for the rest of the season. Kirk's projections are almost as good, but with a different shape.

With off-days today and Monday around the 4 game set with the Angels, I'd like to see Jansen and Kirk in some combination as the catcher and DH every day.  It's a good series to not rest Springer, Guerrero Jr. et. al. unless injuries intervene.

John Northey - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#414143) #
Boy are the Jays blessed behind the plate after rarely developing decent catchers (Pat Borders at 3.6 and Greg Myers at 7.3 were the most successful who had significant time here in the majors, plus J.P. Arencibia at 1.9). You can add Yan Gomes in there too (17 WAR but just 43 games here geez was that trade of him for Esmil Rogers a bad one - 0.1 WAR and lost on waivers). Can't think of any others developed by the Jays who had even 1 WAR in their career. d'Arnaud was a trade who spent a few years in the minors here (4.7 WAR in the majors). Now we have Jansen (4.3 WAR and climbing), Kirk (2.1 and climbing), and soon Moreno (333/393/441 in AAA). Those 3 should easily have better careers than all but Gomes without trouble. All 3 could have better careers than Gomes too.
So the big challenge now for the Jays is who of the 3 to keep and who to trade. From a pure budget POV Jansen is ideal to trade (closest to free agency), Kirk is often viewed as the most limited on defense of the 3, and Moreno has the most value in a trade by a mile right now. By mid-season I suspect something will have to give as all 3 will be demanding to play full-time in the majors due to their performance. But only Moreno has anytime at a position other than catcher (3 pro-games at 3B) while all 3 have time at DH, but there is just one DH slot on the team. A good problem to have and fairly unique to have in Jays history.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#414144) #
Jays scored 10 runs on opening day. Since then, this is the 2nd time scoring 8. Unless I've been using the word "since" wrongly since I've been using the word since.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#414145) #
Jansen's rest-of-season offensive projection is better than that of Gurriel Jr. and Hernandez and almost as good as Bichette's.  When the Blue Jays put in Tapia (or Zimmer) in the lineup and one of the  outfielders DHing with Kirk catching, the offensive loss is very large.  It will need to be done sometimes, but if it is happening every day or nearly every day in the absence of an outfielder on the IL, it's a sign that resources (in this case, the excellent hitting ability of both Jansen and Kirk) are not being optimized. 
Michael - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#414147) #
Kirk has looked pretty good to me this year defensively. He's only about a year older than Moreno, it isn't clear that the Jays need to trade any of the 3 as they can cover starting C, backup C, and DH between the 3, plus Jansen is 27 this year and will be a FA in 2025, so if Moreno gets a small taste this year and starts playing for real next year there is only a year or two overlap. I understand that it is possible to consider trading one of them, but I don't think it should be thought of as forced.
Chuck - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#414149) #
I understand that it is possible to consider trading one of them, but I don't think it should be thought of as forced.

I agree with this assessment. There is plenty of time to let matters sort themselves out on the catching front, especially with an open DH spot.

Nigel - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#414150) #
Catcher development is often random and of a different shape than for position players. Never count your chickens when it comes to top C prospects actually developing as you hope/expect. Conversely, it wouldn't be a complete surprise if Jansen were at 27 to find the offence that seemed to go missing (from what his performance in the upper minors suggested was possible) after he fist arrived in the majors. Today, they all look like they might be similarly valuable players (taking into account age, offensive profile, etc.). I'd be very surprised if that still looked to be the case 12-18 months from now. To wit, I think time is likely to make the decisions easier.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#414152) #
Hmm.  I agree that a trade isn't forced, but it looks to me like the club has 3 above-average offensive and defensive catchers who are major league ready.  There are a few ways to deal with that in the short term.  You could leave Moreno in the minor leagues for additional seasoning a little longer than you might otherwise.  You could bring him up and use him sparingly so that he learns by watching mostly in 2022 (the Yankees did this with Posada in 1997).    You could give Jansen or Moreno a part-time corner outfielder gig, and use Kirk primarily as a DH.  You could trade one of them.  In a season where you are trying to win, it's hard to come up with an ideal solution bearing in mind the ever-present risk of catcher injury. 

I would say this.  If you have a trading partner who is prepared to give value for value and wants one of the catchers, you'd have to take that very seriously. 
hypobole - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#414153) #

Needless to say, the Jay's offence is on the disappointment list.

"They've declined from 5.22 runs per game (third in the AL) in 2021 to a meager 3.67 this season -- 12th in the AL. The biggest culprits have been Teoscar Hernandez and Raimel Tapia, but they are down across the board"


"Verdict: The Panic Is Not Real. Is this going to be the 2021 lineup the rest of the way? Probably not, as there are still several holes, even aside from sluggers such as Guerrero and Hernandez underperforming so far. But a key reason to expect more runs moving forward is the Jays have the third-highest number of hard-hit balls (hit at 95 mph or higher) in the majors, but they're just 25th in the majors in OPS on those hard-hit balls."

greenfrog - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#414154) #
Corbin Carroll is probably unavailable in a trade, but (assuming he is fully recovered from his shoulder injury, which appears to be the case) he would be pretty much the perfect player for the Jays to target in exchange for Moreno.
grjas - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#414155) #
“I would say this. If you have a trading partner who is prepared to give value for value and wants one of the catchers, you'd have to take that very seriously. “

I agree and wouldn’t be surprised to see 2 of the 3 traded over the next two years for areas of need. I just prefer they don’t blow away one of them on a two month rental.

I like watching Jansen. When he’s on, he has a nice smooth swing. And his pick off at first base on Sunday to me was the highlight of an otherwise very frustrating game. Showed his athleticism in spades. Still, if the right trade comes along..
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#414156) #
I’m closer to where Mike is. This team has some obvious flaws, and I think it’s going to take real resources to get the upgrade we all want and think the team needs. It makes the most sense to me to trade from an area of strength, even if that carries risk. I also think it’s more advisable to trade a catcher because we’ve already moved a lot of our prospect depth in earlier moves
Magpie - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#414160) #
This team has some obvious flaws

The biggest, most obvious flaw is the position of Fourth Outfielder. As flaws go, that's a pretty good one to have. Much better than a lousy shortstop or no good starting pitchers. It is a genuine problem, partially because Montoyo has so far refused to play Springer in the outfield for more than three games in a row - which may be prudent of him - but mostly because Hernandez has missed half the games so far. The Fourth Outfielder has played far more often than would have been the plan. Tapia has turned out to be exactly who he was all along - his numbers here are pretty close to his numbers as a Rockie when he wasn't in Coors Field. I like Zimmer better - he's just like Jonathan Davis, but he's faster than Davis, a much better defender, and he should (hasn't yet) be a better hitter. I like Biggio better than both, and if Buffalo would stop getting rained out maybe he could get some games in and get his stroke back.
Nigel - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#414161) #
Mostly agree Magpie. I would say that the 4th OF has historically with Montoyo had something like 350 ABs so this year's usage is only slightly more extreme (and it was frankly predictable that a useful 4th OF was necessary). I would say the hole is really a LHH who is either an upgrade over Gurriel as the regular 3rd OF (truthfully Gurriel is borderline quality to be a regular on a first division club) or a near full-time DH. The line-up needs a near full time LHH with some oomph. Biggio of a couple of years ago would fit the bill.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#414162) #
the 4th OF has historically with Montoyo had something like 350 ABs so this year's usage is only slightly more extreme (and it was frankly predictable that a useful 4th OF was necessary).

Yup. That degree of usage has to a large degree been because of injury (Grichuk in 2018, Gurriel in 2019, Springer last year) but that's rather predictable itself. This team is also vulnerable to an injury on the infield. It does baffle me that they seemed to think Tapia was more than he turned out to be. His Home/Road splits were there to be seen. Maybe the point was getting rid of Grichuk, and this was the best and quickest way to do it. But I always think that's a very bad way - with the focus on what you're getting rid of - to make a trade (if that was indeed how it was made.)

But still... when the team's biggest problems concern its depth (I'm also not sold on the back, back end of the bullpen) - well, there are plenty worse problems to have.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#414163) #
Man, Cavan Biggio simply playing the way he did in 2019-20 solves so many problems.
grjas - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#414165) #
He’s had good numbers so far in very limited play in Buffalo and would definitely help if he regains his form. He did even then, however, have a lot of trouble with 95+ heat- more than most- and there are a lot of those guys in the mayors now.
92-93 - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#414166) #
Biggio needs to be given the same opportunity his teammates have been given and he will be fine.

Teoscar 62 PA - .100/.129/.167 (since return from injury)
Gurriel 55 PA - .118/.182/.157 (since May 3rd)
Guerrero 65 PA - .200/.323/.200 (15 games between his last 2 HRs)
Bichette 54 PA - .170/.185/.208 (4/10-4/22)
uglyone - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#414168) #
I guess my question would a catcher for WHAT exactly?

All of C, DH, and bench bay are roles we need filled and the 3 of them would fill them very nicely.

This season should have told us already that having legit good hitters on the bench is important, not something to trade away.

Magpie - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#414169) #
trade a catcher for WHAT exactly?

Well, I wouldn't trade any of Jansen, Kirk, or Moreno for a fourth outfielder, a backup infielder, or an eighth relief pitcher which are the closest things to holes on the current roster. So I'm with Chuck and Nigel. Wait and see. Time will sort it out.
Gerry - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#414170) #
Cavan Biggio appears to have joined the taxi squad. Could there be a transaction tomorrow?
Magpie - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#414171) #
I'm with Chuck and Nigel.

And Michael! Sorry, Michael!
Magpie - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#414172) #
it's hard to come up with an ideal solution bearing in mind the ever-present risk of catcher injury.

Mike Green, too! AFter all, KIrk missed 68 games last season with an injury, Jansen missed 64 (25 and 39) last season and he's already missed 31 this year... so yeah. Catchers get hurt from time to time to time.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#414177) #
To answer Uglyone’s question. I think they need a left handed hitter who’s good enough to play CF everyday and is a plus defender.

They need to make a decision about the OF long term, since both Gurriel and Hernandez only have a year of control left. I’m using they won’t both be here long term, and I don’t see a player in the system who will be able to take those reps.
scottt - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#414179) #
Brandon Nimmo is a free agent at the end of the year.
Would cost a ton, present a serious injury risk and is a lot more like Espinal than Springer at the plate.

scottt - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#414180) #
One thing people forget is that the Jays play on turf which is very hard on outfielders.
Playing the 4th outfielder regularly makes as much sense in TO as it does in Tampa where they do it a ton.

greenfrog - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#414182) #
“I think they need a left handed hitter who’s good enough to play CF everyday and is a plus defender.”

Hence my suggestion of Carroll as the type of player the team should go after. Here is what BA said about Carroll (who is surely close to untouchable at this point) in a Prospect Hot Sheet earlier this month:

10. Corbin Carroll, OF, D-backs
Team: Double-A Amarillo (Texas)
Age: 21

Why He’s Here: .261/.452/.957 (6-for-23), 8 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 8 RBIs, 7 BB, 8 SO, 1-for-1 SB

The Scoop: Before the season, Baseball America selected Carroll as one of a handful of players who could begin the 2023 season as the No. 1 overall prospect in the game. This, despite having played just seven games at a full-season affiliate and just 18 games outside of the Arizona Complex League. So far, the arrows are pointing in the right direction. The 21-year-old Carroll, who missed the vast majority of last season with a shoulder injury, concluded his week with consecutive two-homer games, giving him nine for the season. His home run power has come mostly at hitter-friendly Amarillo, but his other two triple-slash categories are impressive both at home and on the road. His on-base percentage, in fact, is an identical .458 both home and on the road. Fellow D-backs prospect Alek Thomas just got the call to the big leagues. Carroll might not be far behind. (JN)
John Northey - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#414183) #
Carroll is tearing apart AA right now - 328/462/694 at age 21 mostly in CF with some time in RF and LF as well. Compare to our big prospect - Gabriel Moreno 333/393/441 in AAA at age 22. I'd rank Carroll a bit higher, but Arizona has a MASSIVE hole at catcher. 3 guys with OPS+ of -20 (#1 guy), 10, and 64 (in 8 PA). Yikes. Given the D-Backs are above 500 thus have a shot at the playoffs they might be more interested in a guy who could help right away especially given their 3 OF'ers have OPS+ of 124-136-111 and have a 22 year old OF on the bench with a 141 OPS+ (Alek Thomas a LH hitter who was a top 40 prospect pre-season, top 20 by MLB). Talk about depth in the OF. This could be an ideal 'challenge trade' where each team gives up a super-prospect to fill a hole for the other team from a position of depth. Of course, if they'd do a Kirk for Thomas trade that might be better :)

Trade Values puts them at Carroll: 53.2, Thomas: 41.8; Moreno 67.1, Kirk 28. Kirk plus might get Thomas. The other OF'ers they have are Varsho (25 yrs old CF 136 OPS+ 72.3 value), Peralta (LF, 34, 124 OPS+ hits left), and Pavin Smith (RF, 26, 111 OPS+ bats left). Peralta is a free agent post 2022 and has no value according to Trade Values. He is the easy target, but Kirk or Jansen (24.5) is way too valuable for him. Of course, Arizona has other prospects too so who knows, maybe a match can be made to fill both teams core needs, leading to Moreno getting his shot.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#414184) #
Thanks John for adding to my trade proposal. In BA's updated (May 2022) prospect rankings, Moreno is #5 (up from #6) and Carroll is #17 (up from #18).

Moreno: "Tools: Hit: 70 | Power: 50 | Run: 40 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 60. Skinny: A fractured thumb limited Moreno to 37 games last season, but he showed premium hitting ability, growing power and plus defense behind the plate when he was healthy. As long as he stays on the field, he projects to give the Blue Jays yet another young, homegrown all-star."

Carroll: "Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 70 | Fielding: 60 | Arm: 45. Skinny: Carroll played only seven games before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in 2021. If he comes back healthy, his explosive speed and athleticism, advanced feel to hit and sneaky power for his size should help him make up quickly for lost time and become a cornerstone in the D-backs outfield."
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#414185) #
My sense is that Moreno is the better overall prospect (70 versus 60 hit, for example) but the Jays have a surplus at C and they could really use a player of Carroll's profile in the coming seasons. I don't love that Carroll had a major shoulder injury last year but he's been healthy so far in 2022 and Moreno also comes with some injury baggage.
grjas - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#414186) #
guess my question would a catcher for WHAT exactly?

LHH to DH, a better left fielder or a CF moving Springer, another late inning RP. Would rather fill one of these needs than have 3 good catchers fighting for AB’s by the end of the year.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#414187) #
The challenge now is a mix of asset growth and asset management. You can only play 1 catcher at a time behind the plate, DH is useful but limited as you need that slot for other guys too (ie: Springer, Vlad) so having a catcher there all the time cuts both that players value (DH vs catching) and the teams utility from the DH slot.

Thus why I think a trade is needed. Getting a high end CF or a solid LH bat who can play at least a corner OF slot would be very useful right now. Arizona is a potential fit (has a big OF surplus and an empty catcher slot. Checking FanGraphs Arizona's top catching prospect is Adrian Del Castillo, a 40+ who is ranked #16 in their system. Next best is Cooper Hummel at #28 (a 40), and Jose Herrera (#35, a 35+). Meanwhile their top 2 prospect are both CF'ers (Corbin Carroll 60 and Alek Thomas 55). They have tons of pitching prospects, and a few SS among the rest of their top 10. They have a VERY good system right now. Daulton Varsho in CF is a great one it looks like - has caught but seems best used in CF but has been pushed back to catcher due to the teams desperate need for a catcher despite his having negative scores on his catching defense at FanGraphs. To add to the riches in the OF they also have Jake McCarthy (LH 24) who isn't hitting too well this year (81 OPS+) but was very good in the minors (282/363/480) with a 943 OPS in AAA (303 PA). ZiPs isn't high on him (87 wRC+) but he is another potential piece in a deal. Crazy - 5 OF who all are decent (well, better than Zimmer and Tapia) and all hit left handed.

If I ran the Jays I'd be very, very tempted to see what it took to get Carroll from them, or Thomas. Either or would push Springer to RF most likely or at least provide a solid sub for him. Then you move Teoscar to LF and find a taker for Gurriel or dump Tapia - I'm good with either. Zimmer I see as a solid 5th OF (strong defense, good runner). If it took Moreno to get Carroll then I'd talk long with the scouts about future potential for both and if it is as solid as it seems then I'd go for it. Massive risk for both teams, but also massive reward in an area of need for both. I'd bet strongly Arizona would rather have Varsho in the OF. Obviously I'd try to use Kirk instead in a deal though (love him but feel Moreno has higher potential).
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#414188) #
Moreno and Jansen tandem is tantalizing to think about. I'd trade Kirk. I would look for someone like this:

To TBJ -
A Benintendi
J Staumont

to KCR -
A Kirk
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#414189) #
The problem is Gurriel's value has hit the floor this season. In the summer the Jays probably could have packaged Kirk and Gurriel for Corbin Carrol. Now they will need Gurriel, Kirk +
John Northey - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#414190) #
Funny, for once a proposal from a Jays fan comes out as an overpay for the Jays. Normally it is the other way around. Kirk (28) for Benintendi (4.2) and Staumont (13.6). Benintendi is low value due to being a free agent after 2022. Staumont is a long ways away (post 2025) from free agency so that is the reason for the values there, but Benintendi is hitting very well this year (138 OPS+) thus likely upping his value. Still, the Jays could try to get another person in the deal like Asa Lacy (LHP in AA, a top 100 prospect from some sources but not all, lots of K's lots of walks). Might need to add in a low level prospect to finish it then but then the Jays get more future pitching plus present pen and LF help. Then try to trade or dump Tapia.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#414191) #
John it's not that simple. If you use those fictitious trade values then you will find that Gausman is worth less than Benintendi, Berrios is a negative value, etc etc. It puts too much emphasis on a large contract being a negative value when in my mind it's only negative if that player is not worth that contract. Case in point, Ryu may be negative value but Gausman or Berrios may not be since they are more likely to be valuable or live up to their contract. The trade simulator you are using assumes they are negative or low value players simply because they have large contracts. The weight is slanted too far. Same thing with young players with tons of control. Witt Jr is insanely valuable according to the value chart, and he has all of 153 at bats.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 25 2022 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#414192) #
True enough, but often their values do match up to real trades and it is an unbiased source vs fans like us who naturally will overvalue our own players. Not perfect, but useful.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, May 26 2022 @ 03:20 AM EDT (#414193) #
My apologies, hyperbole, for misreading your statement on how many times the Jays have scored 8 runs or more this season.
scottt - Thursday, May 26 2022 @ 06:17 AM EDT (#414194) #
The premise of a trade is that both side get what they desire.
That's why we don't often see trades involving only prospects.
A team with an elite young left bat would certainly like to keep him.
We did have Tellez and he struggled as much as the others.

It's only May.

Jonny German - Thursday, May 26 2022 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#414195) #
Benintendi and Staumont would both be very nice additions to this roster… but there aren’t many teams who need a catcher less than KC. Perennial All Star Sal Perez is backed up by #1 prospect M J Melendez.
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 26 2022 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#414196) #
Yea…there’s that part which I left out, but they could DH Kirk. Gurriel for Benintendi could also work.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 26 2022 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#414197) #
Benintendi and Staumont would both be very nice additions to this roster… but there aren’t many teams who need a catcher less than KC. Perennial All Star Sal Perez is backed up by #1 prospect M J Melendez.

Yep.  It might be possible to find a match with KC through a 3 way trade, although these are always more difficult to engineer.

To be clear, what you are trying to accomplish is to get more production out of all your outfielders by redistributing work.  For Benintendi's career (he's 27), he has hit .284/.356/.455 against RHP good for 116 wRC+.  He's been a noticeably better hitter than Gurriel Jr.  The difference between what Benintendi can be expected to produce in 3/4 time that he is likely to see and the 3/4 time that Tapia is seeing is roughly two wins.  That's a lot.  Gurriel Jr. would end up getting less work. 
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 26 2022 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#414198) #
One player to keep an eye on is Biggio. Next year the shift is going to be either banned or extremely limited. This would naturally play into Biggios favour.
bpoz - Thursday, May 26 2022 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#414199) #
Corbin Carrol is an elite prospect, so I assume they would trade him for an elite prospect. Our elite prospects (non pitcher) are Moreno and O Martinez (1 year younger than Carrol). But not Groshans for now IMO. Martinez and Carrol both got big signing bonuses, so they can risk FA better than Moreno and Kirk.

I accept anyone's opinion as good. Martinez is 1 year younger and has exceptional power, but Carrol has exceptional speed. They both could be in the Majors in 2023/24.

By the end of 2022 we will know the performance of all the Carrol trade candidates. Kirk's performance will be at the ML level as a C/DH. If Kirk has a good year he may be worth more than Carrol 1 for 1.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 26 2022 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#414204) #
Mike Trout wore the golden sombrero last night.  Don't know if that's a good omen or a bad one. 
92-93 - Thursday, May 26 2022 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#414208) #
Pretty sure the Jays once gave Trout the golden sombrero, I was at the Dome.

The Jays will be forced to drop a reliever during the next series against the White Sox. With off days book-ending this series vs. the Angels they don't need 9 RP, so Biggio should be back soon. It would be nice to see him in the lineup tonight.
Gerry - Thursday, May 26 2022 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#414211) #
The 14 pitcher limit has been extended to June 19.
scottt - Thursday, May 26 2022 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#414214) #
That sucks. Most teams need an extra pitcher more than the Jays do.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, May 27 2022 @ 04:11 AM EDT (#414253) #
Pretty sure the Jays once gave Trout the golden sombrero

Sunday, May 11th, 2014. Angels win 9-3. Mike Trout: 1-5, double, RBI, 4 strikeouts.

Wednesday was Trout's 8th career game with 4 strikeouts, although it was the 2nd time just this month.

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