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It's another first place team up next.  Of course it is.


It is, however, a first place team with a losing record. That's not a phenomenon we see all that often. The Twins, however, live in the AL Central where such things are possible. They're scuffling at the moment - they just went into Tampa Bay and were swept, which extended their current losing streak to five. And their two best hitters, Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo, are both on the IL.

Should be a fun weekend, right?

Let's not get too cocky. The Twins do have their two best starters lined up and ready to go. The Jays took two of three from the Twins just two weeks back, but they were fortunate enough to miss both Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan on that occasion. No such luck this time. And they'll be opposed by Yusei Kikuchi - who I suppose has received a field promotion to Fourth Starter - and Saturday's mystery man. The only good thing about all this is the general inoffensiveness of the Minnesota lineup.

The Story So Far:

Fri 26 May: Toronto 3 Minnesota 1 - Kevin Gausman was uncharacteristically wild, walking five batters. He held the Twins to a single run, but the resulting high pitch count meant the bullpen to get the final 11 outs. Which they (Swanson, Mayza, Pearson, Romano) did, without allowing a single hit (although they managed to walk another four hitters.) The Jays scored all three runs in the third inning, in a quick little sequence that went Kiermaier HR, Springer double, Bichette HR.

Sat 27 May: Toronto 7 Minnesota 9 - The Twins bounced back, taking advantage of one of Chris Bassitt's occasional stinkers. Bichette's first inning homer staked Bassitt to an early lead, but he gave that back and more as the Twins scored three times in their half, a two out single by Wallner cashing two runs being the key blow. Julien's second double of the day stretched the lead to 4-1 an inning later, but the Jays battled back to tie it up, thanks to a two run triple by Bichette scoring Heineman and Springer in the third, and a solo homer by Biggio an inning later. But in the fifth, a leadoff single by Kiriloff and back-to-back homers by Castro and Wallner sent Bassitt to the ahowers. The Twins later added a couple more homers, by Castro (off Cimber) and Julien (off Garcia) to stretch the lead to 9-4, which provided a mountain too high for the Jays ninth inning rally (Varsho two run homer, Bichette RBI single to score Biggio) to overcome.

Sun 28 May: Toronto 3 Minnesota 0 - The Jays took the rubber match, in a game that rather resembled Friday's opener. Just like Gausman, Jose Berrios was very effective, but rather wild, walking five in just 5.2 IP. He didn't allow any runs at all, and Richards, Swanson, and Romano got the final ten outs, allowing just one ninth inning single along the way. You don't need a lot of offense when the pitchers are tossing a shutout - Alejandro Kirk's two out single to score Chapman and Varsho - from first base - in the second was all that was required. Varsho, filling in for Kiermaier in centre field, also racked up a BaseRunner Kill and took away a homer from Carlos Correa.


Matchups

Fri 9 June - Gray (4-1, 2.15) vs Kikuchi (6-2, 4.40)
Sat 10 June - Ryan (7-3, 2.76) vs Francis? (---, -.--)
Sun 11 June - Varland (3-2, 4.40) vs Gausman (5-3, 2.63)
Minnesota at Toronto, June 9-11 | 170 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
greenfrog - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#429903) #
Jorge Polanco (hamstring tightness) may be unavailable this series as well.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#429905) #
the logo on Minnesota's cap (" T/C " for Twin Cities) features a wishbone letter C.

The Cincinnati Reds logo is the wishbone-C.

Cleveland has worn it in the past, as well as the Cubs.

The Chicago Bears logo is virtually the same.

The Blue Jays are the only team without any letter on the cap.
hypobole - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#429906) #
Have to feel sorry for the Twins franchise.

Had a GG catcher who had to spend the the final 6 seasons of his career not catching due to concussions.

Have a GG CF who kept getting injured, so he hasn't played the field at all this year and has been strictly a DH. And he still gets injured.
Cracka - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#429907) #
Bass DFA'ed; Mitch White active. They couldn't have him on the roster this weekend, there was just no way.
uglyone - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#429908) #
Pearson hasn't pitched since Sunday. That's 5 days off and counting. As far as I know no hint of health issues.

Are they lining him up to start tomorrow?
John Northey - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#429909) #
About freaking time. Bass was a disaster from a PR POV and the manager had zero trust in him, never used in a tie game, never trusted with a lead of less than 3 runs, and just once with a lead of less than 6 runs. Trusted when down 1 just 3 times. Basically he was super-low leverage guy. If White is healthy he should at least be able to go 2 or 3 innings if needed (might suck, but would eat the innings in a blowout).

I'm guessing a lot of people who has 'Bass removed the B from his name' signs will be disappointed they can't show them now, but otherwise I suspect everyone will be happy with this. I guarantee other players have his views but are smart enough not to post those thoughts.
uglyone - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#429910) #
Yeah the Bass DFA had to be done. But if they were going to do it they should have done it earlier. Now this looks reactionary, not principled.

And while he hadn't pitched well this year, this is a blow to the bullpen's upside - other than Romano and Swanson, Bass was the only other guy with legit recent high leverage quality performance. Hopefully Chad Green is effective and ready to go soon.
mathesond - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#429911) #
Bass DFA'd? But now who will catch the ceremonial first pitch?
hypobole - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#429912) #
Who sponsors the 7th inning stretch on Sportsnet? Might it be Budweiser, one of the video's targets?
hypobole - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#429914) #
Whoops....again.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#429916) #
wikipedia says: " Interbrew brands have historically included Budweiser, Stella Artois, Boddingtons, Beck's, Staropramen, Bass and Leffe, although many have spun off to their own companies including Bass, which is now owned by Molson Coors. "

So, the Colorado Rockies?

I quit drinking for 40 days.

vw_fan17 - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#429917) #
I saw the "first step" of Bass's apology tour. Then, I read this article yesterday on mlb.com about part 2:
www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/blue-jays-pitcher-anthony-bass-clarifies-apology

A total "sorry not sorry" IMHO. I.e. I'm sorry if any harm came from it, but I totally believe it's true.. And I will continue to support the characterization of LGBTQ+ community as "evil" and "demonic" (which is causing all kinds of harm to them including stochastic violence), but, hey, I don't intend any harm.

If he had simply said: I'm sorry if any harm came from it and I will try to avoid hateful material in the future, I could have maybe lived with it. After doubling down on "I can't say it out loud because I'm being forced to not say it by my employer, but I totally believe it", I was really, REALLY wondering how I could support the team going forward.

My teenage daughter is autistic and has already told us she's not sure of her orientation. And she has multiple LGBTQ+ friends at school. She's been the biggest (relatively speaking) sports fan in my family - has gone to more games than anyone else, knows some of the players, etc.. I would have definitely felt hypocritical, watching anymore games after that..

Also in that link, Atkins seemed VERY steamed about that conversation, and that was probably also part of it..
92-93 - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#429918) #
The 7th last night seemed like a good spot for Pearson so yeah, they were probably trying to hold him back to either open tomorrow or get a little more stretched out after Francis pitches.
85bluejay - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#429919) #
Whatever your view of the Bass incident, the Blue Jays have handled it like a hand grenade - what a PR disaster.
Ryan Day - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#429920) #
Bass came out of this with a lot more dignity than the Blue Jays organization. People in the Jays' org, like Atkins & Schneider and team-affiliated media, spent a lot more time explaining Bass' apologies than Bass did in making them. I have a hard time believing Bass ever expressed genuine remorse, beyond the "distraction" stuff; given that, the Jays would have shown a hell of a lot more integrity dropping him immediately after he shared the video.

At least Bass gets to walk away with his head high knowing he never really apologized for anything.
Ryan Day - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#429921) #
Atkins claims it was a *baseball* decision: "Performance was a large aspect of the decision. Distraction was a small part of it and something we had to factor in."

Bass has not been great, but Mitch White has a 10.07 ERA in AAA.
greenfrog - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#429922) #
A lot of individual and organizational statements about Pride now have more to do with power/positioning and money than authentic belief. Same with EDI. Whatever you believe or don't believe, you have to go along with the orthodoxy if you don't want to get cancelled.
uglyone - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#429923) #
You might also get cancelled if you go against the orthodoxy of black people being equal to whites.
Dr B - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#429924) #
the Jays would have shown a hell of a lot more integrity dropping him immediately after he shared the video.

I get your point, one similar to UO’s above, but I think you have to give people a chance to redeem themselves. I am guessing Bass a lifetime of prejudices to jettison. One day, maybe, he'll surprise you.

At least Bass gets to walk away with his head high knowing he never really apologized for anything.

He just got publicly shamed. And sacked. Some might consider that a bit embarrassing.
John Northey - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#429925) #
The challenge is not breaking any rules with the MLB Players Union too. Dropping him right after he posted stuff that would land under 'mild' in the states of Florida/Texas/etc. wouldn't go over well. So waiting until you had an excuse to bring up someone else, anyone else, was a good move in that respect (Jackson was a guy they could option, but White isn't so there is more of a case there even if White isn't exactly doing well on his rehab). Now, some say his contract is guaranteed so what is he losing? Service time (vital for pension purposes), and playing time (critical for his next contract - he needs to prove himself to other teams). Of course, his last game was June 5th (Manoah start), his only game in June. In games Bass has pitched the Jays are 6-16 - he never was trusted with a lead of less than 3 runs (once with 3, 3 times up 6, once up 7). He got a hold once (the 3 run lead game - he gave up 2 runs got 2 outs, but still got a hold). I don't see the Jays losing anything by letting him go. If White flops I suspect Jackson will fill in just fine until Green and Pop are ready.
Ryan Day - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#429927) #
Bass gave the team a pretty good "performance" reason to cut him on June 5th. If anything, the timing looks more suspicious now, after not pitching for a few days but making a very poorly received public statement going into the Jays' Pride Weekend promotion.
John Northey - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#429928) #
For fun, on YouTube an old baseball video came up - can you imagine this happening today? Andre Dawson going nuts on Joe West. What really caught me off guard was George Bell of all people playing peacemaker, trying to get Dawson away from West before getting ejected. Two of the big faces of MLB in Canada in the 80's playing on the Cubs. Fun stuff.
hypobole - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#429929) #
Fact. 72 pitchers have 60 IP. Kikuchi's 2.49 HR/9 is the highest. Sonny Gray's 0.13 HR/9 is the lowest.

And despite Fact, I predict Vladdy will hit his 1st RC HR this weekend.
scottt - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#429930) #
It's not really a battle of ERAs.
White is out of option and still pre-arb for another year.
They paid a lot for Mitch White because he had ERAs of 3.66 and 3.70 with the Dodgers.
Bass is a free agent. White has another 4 years of control.
Bass is a one inning guy who isn't trusted in high leverage.
White is a long relief guy who might be able to throw several innings when the game isn't close.

The Jays would be probably be happy to trade Bass for cash consideration.
Maybe some place like Texas or Florida.

Last year, White had an ERA of 7.74 with the Jays, but his FIP actually went down. He didn't issue more walks than with the Dodgers, so maybe the improved defense will help him.

Kelekin - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#429931) #
White's statcast numbers have looked a lot better in his recent relief appearances in Buffalo, so I'll remain optimistic he can give us enough. Pop is back soon too, though if everyone stays healthy he's likely optioned to AAA. Danner and Juenger could be key pieces later in the year.

I also think White makes sense from the perspective of "guys who can give more than 1 inning if we need it" - with Kikuchi's underlying numbers still looking very rough, and the past month not going as well, combined with no true 5th starter right now, we're likely going to need multiple guys who can go 2+ innings regularly.
John Northey - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#429933) #
With White his last 2 games were 2 1/3 IP 0 H 0 BB 3 K 2 GB, 2 Fly balls, 2 pop ups, 0 line drives, 33 pitches total, 22 strikes, 11 balls. Fairly solid 2 games, but before that - ugly. 6 games in AAA allowing runs in all 6. 19 R 18 ER in the 4 games over 10 2/3 IP before the last 2 games. Hopefully he figured out what was wrong and it wasn't just the old blind squirrel finding a nut/dead cat bounce situation.
Nigel - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#429934) #
If the answer to your question is "White for more than one inning", you might be asking the wrong question:)
Dr B - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#429935) #
Not so sure, Nigel. My question might be:  “We haven’t given up enough runs to use a position player to pitch. What can we do?”
Nigel - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#429937) #
I stand corrected:)
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#429938) #
according to the Government of Canada - Department of Fisheries and Oceans:

invasive species: Largemouth bass (a.k.a. bigmouth / bucketmouth)

internationally: " The largemouth bass is the state fish of Georgia and Mississippi, and the state freshwater fish of Florida and Alabama. "

greenfrog - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#429939) #
What a hit by Springer. First pitch off the bench, ambushed a breaking ball. 2-2 ballgame.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#429940) #
I kinda feel like we’re abusing Swanson at this point. No?
Gerry - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#429941) #
Winning run on third, no outs. Kirk, Bo and Vlad coming up, you would have fancied the Jays chances.
Gerry - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#429942) #
Varsho looked overmatched by Duran.
greenfrog - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#429943) #
The Kirk dropped ball was obviously a big missed opportunity to keep the game tied.

Belt almost won it in the ninth with a very good PA.

Presumably Duran will be unavailable tomorrow.
John Northey - Friday, June 09 2023 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#429944) #
Ugh. When I saw the game going to the bottom of the 9th tied I liked the Jays chances, then saw 2 guys on and figured this is great, but had to turn it off as my daughter was coming up to bat in her game (hit a triple, scored, but her team lost...sigh). Such is life. Hopefully the Jays aren't about to enter a slump again. Tomorrow is another tough day with it being a bullpen day for all intents and purposes (White and Francis hopefully will cover 5+ innings between them and allow fewer than 5 runs combined, but I'm not betting on it).
Marc Hulet - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#429945) #
Having two players that can't hit a good fastball doesn't help... Well, three really (Varsho, Belt, Biggio)
Nigel - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#429946) #
The outcome was definitely not Varsho’s fault but he is definitely not the guy you want up against a high leverage reliever with velocity. He’s got no hope. Notwithstanding his career numbers I like his chances better against a tough LHP than against velocity.
scottt - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#429948) #
I think they handled it perfectly.
Part of Bass's target was Budweiser, one of the team's main sponsor.
So Bass was made to ride the pine, stand aside from the other players and make an apology which he sabotaged.
So, yeah, I think they handled it perfectly, second chance not taken especially.

scottt - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#429949) #
At the same time, the role of a platoon lefty is not to crush fastballs, it's to handle right handed breaking stuff.

I felt sorry for Kikuchi who thought he earned the right to pitch in the 6th.
I was shocked that Gray was pulled as well. I suppose the idea is to protect a lead at all cost and tomorrow be damned. I hope that in hindsight it made the pill easier to swallow for Kikuchi.

Other teams seem better at exploiting hitter's weaknesses.
The Jays pitchers throw the balls where the hitter can crush them too often for my taste.

Will Bichette see more fastballs from now on?

 
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#429956) #
Richards, I call him Richie.

Donnie Baseball, Vladdy, Yimi, Chappy, Espy, Georgie, Richie, Potsie, Fonzie.
hypobole - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#429957) #
Hey, did DaBox DFA Richards back in April for never being very good?
Nigel - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#429958) #
There’s a reasonable case the Richards has been the Jays’ second best reliever.

Biggio should be in this game against a RH without premium velocity.
uglyone - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#429959) #
Manoah is unplayable and Berrios, Kikuchi, Richards are awesome.

I think I am officially shortening TINSTAAPP to TINSTAAP.
Gerry - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#429960) #
Belt could be headed to the IL with that hammy strain.
Magpie - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#429961) #
Manoah is unplayable and Berrios, Kikuchi, Richards are awesome.

It's like Senor Andujar always said: Youneverknow.
Magpie - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#429962) #
did DaBox DFA Richards back in April for never being very good?

More like last July, and every moment since. I definitely felt at times like I was just making excuses for the guy.

Second best reliever might be stretching it - it's the element of surprise that makes it seem that way. Mayza, obviously, has been the best. Swanson and Pearson have probably been a little better as well. So Richard is scrapping it out with Romano?
92-93 - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#429963) #
Great job from Lukes with the sac fly. Interesting that Schneider chose him over Biggio, though the decision could have been predicated on maintaining more positional flexibility on the bench.
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#429964) #
I had no idea Francis had that much gas.

He has looked great to date. I hope it keeps up. The idea of easing him into the game was smart
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#429965) #
I wish they had let Francis stay in
Mike Green - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#429966) #
Cimber for Francis was a strange move.  Cimber has not looked fit for high leverage work and Francis is perfectly capable of going more than 2.1.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#429967) #
Schneider grade on that move: F
Mike Green - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#429968) #
30 seconds before it comes back to bite.
lexomatic - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#429969) #
<br>well that backfired.
Snatching defeat, etc...
uglyone - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#429970) #
kinda blame yesterday's decision to pull Kikuchi early tbh.
scottt - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#429971) #
Some terrible bullpen management.

It seems like the idea was to used Francis as little as possible because the Twins expected him to be the bulk guy, but if you go with Cimber, don't wait until the 8th inning. Have him go early. He just picked up the loss in the 10th inning.

Gerry - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#429972) #
Cimber's numbers are all down this year compared to last. Lower K rate, higher walk rate, higher ba against.
hypobole - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#429973) #
Yup. The early hook on Kikuchi yesterday Would have made more sense if it wasn't going to be a bullpen day today. And then the early hook on Francis just compounded the situation.
Mike Green - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#429974) #
I don't know about yesterday's decision.  But Cimber this year has looked like Richards last year.  You don't force him into a high leverage situation unless you have no options.  You did. 
scottt - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#429975) #
Also, Taylor is a low OBP, high power guy hitting 9th, wouldn't it make sense to play the third basemen a bit closer?

greenfrog - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#429976) #
This is not a season for the manager to noodle around and hope for the best. The Jays are supposed to be making competitive decisions and going for it.
lexomatic - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#429977) #
Oh good Kepler HR on a horrible ball very in the strike zone which should have been a strikeout
lexomatic - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#429978) #
Uh pitch order wrong so no K, but still
Cracka - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#429979) #
The mistakes started when they used Mayza in the 4th inning. If you use an opener, you should target 4-5 innings from your bulk guy. Instead, they got 2.2 innings and then had only two realistic options left: Cimber and Romano. Mitch White is worse than Bass and they're going to need to find someone else to help in these situations.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#429981) #
Cimber certainly was a choice.

I know bullpen management is hard to ever be perceived as being good at, but Schneider has made some pretty embarrassing calls (if he is the one making them).
Magpie - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#429982) #
kinda blame yesterday's decision to pull Kikuchi early tbh.

Agree. If you can squeeze just one more inning out of Kikuchi, you only need one from Pearson (or you simply don't need to use Garcia at all.)

It always happens. When you decide to use five pitchers in a game, you're pretty much guaranteed to stumble across the one who doesn't have anything this day.
scottt - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#429983) #
They have the guys, they are just not using them properly.
Like, what was the point of Romano warming up with bases loaded and no outs?
Too late by then.

Velocity is what you want in the 8th/9th inning, not in the 3rd or 4th.
If you reduce the velo as the game goes on, you speed up the bats.

Magpie - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#429984) #
I can't complain too much about going to Cimber today. It's the eighth inning. Garcia, Swanson, Pearson are not available. Bowden Francis to face the heart of the order a second time? I'd rather not. Two innings from Romano? I'd rather not. Which leaves Cimber.

Or Heineman. Which, come to think of it...
Magpie - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#429985) #
At this time last year, Mitch White was taking a regular turn in the starting rotation of a team that won 111 ball games.

Is a puzzlement.
mathesond - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#429986) #
At least his K-BB ratio for today's game looks good!
greenfrog - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#429987) #
I know it's something of a hot take, but I kind of feel like the Varsho-Moreno/LGJ trade may have been a bust for the Jays. LGJ has been great this year (.309/.357/.559 and 1.7 fWAR / 2.0 bWAR) and Moreno has been decent. Varsho has been a good fielder but a mediocre hitter. Moreno is controllable for six seasons to Varsho's four.

For the record, I somewhat supported trading Moreno for Varsho (while noting that it was arguably an overpay and that there may be some risk in Varsho's hitting profile). But I didn't support including LGJ in the trade.

Arizona is 39-25 at the moment.
The_Game - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#429988) #
Some of those Montoyo decisions from 2021 make a lot more sense in hindsight now that you know John Schneider was likely an integral decision maker for them.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#429989) #
I wasn't a supporter of the trade due to mismanaging the value of a top prospect (those are the guys you package for a Luis Castillo type if you are going to get rid of them), but I'm not heartbroken about Gurriel's performance this year. He's in the top 10 in pretty much every metric that shows over-performance. Of course, we'd love those results right now.

Atkins' trades are generally a weird mix. When he really wants a guy, he overpays hard, but then he gets a lot of small wins.
Magpie - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#429990) #
I'm not going to assess the trade after two months.

I am going to worry about Cimber. He's always been hittable (this is why you don't want him anywhere near extra innings, when the Zombie Runner is already in scoring position) but he's always been effective because he doesn't walk people and he keeps the ball in the yard.

But when his bases on balls have doubled, and his HRs allowed have more than doubled... the guy may need to go into the shop for some kind of overhaul.
Michael - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#429991) #
Richards was great, they pulled him when they had to as it looked like he was starting to lose control and getting up there. Mayza next was a little weird, but I guess there is an argument he got to face a fair number of lefties and it was early enough that the Twins weren't going to pinch hit for them, and it mostly worked out. Francis looked pretty good and seemed to be cruising and ready for more. With a short bullpen and the bullpen game I don't see why in the world you pull Francis there (and if you do, can only be for Romano). It looked insane. I think you pitch Francis at the start of the eighth and if you think he's lost it or losing it, you go to your closer not your low leverage guy. Ideally Francis gives you the eighth and if it is still close Romano the ninth, but if Romano needs to come in for 4 outs or 5 outs or even 6 outs, do that before you go to Cimber/White.
hypobole - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#429992) #
Gurriel never hit as well with the Jays as he is this season. Toronto, per BRef, has played the 2nd toughest schedule in MLB. Zona the 25th.

Gurriel much better hitter than Varsho, but just comparing batting lines isn't exactly apples to apples.
uglyone - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#429993) #
Well varsho and moreno have been similar offensively. Gurriel and Kiermaier similar offensively. But i'll take the added defense.
Nigel - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#429994) #
I’m not going to assess the trade this early either. But I thought expectations for Varsho’s offence were too optimistic. Once you adjust for the crazy good minor league environments in the Arizona chain, his history doesn’t suggest such a positive outlook. I think we’re seeing why. His defence is legitimately really really good though.
SK in NJ - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#429995) #
Varsho's value is probably going to be more recognized in 2024 when he's the starting CF. Ideally you would want more offense out of LF, and he's not the guy to count on for that. As good as Kiermaier has been, I think the Jays would have been better off doing an either/or with them. Having both on the same team marginalizes Varsho's value and exploits his weakness (essentially that he's not good enough with the bat to play a corner OF spot). I guess as long as KK continues to hit like he's been hitting, the Jays might get away with it, but that's not something I want to bank on given his career.

I will concur that Schneider is managing a lot like Montoyo, especially with the bullpen, which suggests the Jays internal analytics might be the issue and not necessarily the manager. I'm getting way too many 2021 vibes out of this team with some of their losses, and I really hope we aren't looking back on 1 or 2 winnable lost games as the reason the team didn't make it again. Happening once was frustrating enough, twice in 3 years would be awful. Texas and Baltimore aren't going anywhere, the Astros are too good to falter, and the Yankees always find a way to overcome injuries to be there in the end, so it's not going to be easy for the Jays to even get a WC spot. Can't be losing games like the last 2.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#429996) #
Varsho-Moreno arguably would have been a fair trade. The Jays could have signed Kiermaier and also kept LGJ. The roster would have been a bit crowded. But it would have been better and deeper.

LGJ sure would be nice to have when Kiermaier or Belt or another starting player spends time on the IL.
hypobole - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#429997) #
Belt's hammy looked like an upcoming DL stint. The broadcast crew said it would be Horwitz up, I couldn't figure out why it wouldn't be Clement, who's been the better and more versatile player this year.

Just looked at the Bisons boxscore - Horwitz playing, Clement isn't.
Gerry - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#429999) #
I agree hypobole, I was about to post the same thing. Clement looked decent when he was up. The first base thing is not important, Biggio can cover if you want to give Vladdy a day off his feet. The Jays have an off day in each of the next three weeks to Vladdy can rest then.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#430000) #
A problem arises if Biggio becomes an everyday guy for Belt while Clement sits on the bench...
Gerry - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#430002) #
Most of Belts AB's were at DH so the Jays can pick from Jansen, Kirk, Lukes, Biggio and possibly Clement.

I would assume Jansen/Kirk would get a game each a week leaving four or five opportunities for the others.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#430003) #
As soon as I saw Cimber in instead of giving Francis another inning, I felt we were done..
hypobole - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#430005) #
Told my wife that before Cimber threw a pitch.
scottt - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#430007) #
Horwitz is the same type of hitter than Belt is. Left bat, good swing decision, mostly gap-to-gap power, takes his walk.

Clement can hit HRs in Buffalo were the park is smaller and there balls are not kept in an humidor.
He's been hot and he can run better, but I am afraid that if he's called, he's most likely to be the bench player while Biggio plays regularly.

Petey Baseball - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#430008) #
It looks like the Jays need offense. I wonder if with the emergence of Pearson, and the fact Chad Green could return for the second half makes Yimi Garcia expendable for a possible late June trade (the way the Jays snapped up Cimber and Richards in quick sucession in June '21).

The Mets, who desperately need bullpen to help save their season, might be willing to dangle Tommy Pham or Eduardo Escobar, both whom are bench players on the Mets and would make the Jays much better right away. Escobar has played both second and third and is a much better hitter than Biggio. Pham is an outfielder who can still hit (.819 OPS this season) and could platoon with the lefty Varsho.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#430009) #
They'd also be insurance for the loss of offence in Belt, who likely will be on the DL for two weeks or so.

I'd feel more comfortable with a righty platoon partner for Varsho, whose virtually unplayable against lefties. It would be a bit of a ego-hit for Daulton, and an acknowledgement from the Jays that they overpaid for him, but this year is about winning and right now the Jays offence just isn't good enough.
John Northey - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#430010) #
I was very surprised when Mayza came in so early on. I was sure they'd use Francis once Richards got out of the 3rd inning. Guess they felt Mayza was warm so you got to use him then. No question bullpen management is an issue though, as Cimber should've been nowhere near the field in the 8th inning - he just isn't a high pressure guy right now and hasn't been since the injury. In theory Bass would've been the 8th inning guy had he been kept around, but odds are he'd have blown it too given his year. Pop was probably the best choice if healthy, but he isn't so that wasn't there. Jackson I feel would've been better to call up, but I think once sent down you need to stay down at least 10 days unless an IL happens.

So imo, this game was lost when the choice was made to keep Bass a week ago and send Jackson down. Do the opposite and the Jays would've been in much better shape. Using Francis instead of Mazya in the 4th would've been good, but could've blown up too. IF the bats could score 5+ now and then it'd help too.
scottt - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#430012) #
The issue is that if Mayza comes in too late, they will pinch hit.
Normally, you start a lefty for a right handed bulk pitcher.

I would have to assume that Schneider panicked after Francis allowed a homerun.

It's not uncommon to see young pitchers not being trusted despite pitching well on this team.
They like veterans. I wouldn't be surprised to see them acquire some experienced dude who be allowed to go 6 innings while sporting an ERA of 5 or 6.


uglyone - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#430013) #
I assumed Mayza was being used for the tougher and leftier part of the order, so that Bowden could come in against the easier part of the order.....but I wasn't watching close enough to know if that is actually true.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#430014) #
" acquire some experienced dude "

a Jim Clancy type. Zack Greinke was suggested. Greinke is the active career leader in the categories: games lost / innings pitched / hits allowed / earned runs allowed / home runs allowed / wild pitches / batters faced. Greinke also played in the World Series with Houston in 2019 and 2021.

* * *

the Mets minus Alonso - still better than the Yankees!

Marc Hulet - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#430015) #
Lots of conjecture that the Jays are actively looking for a SP to beat the trade deadline rush but there aren't many sellers and those that are... Don't have any difference makers to make available.

That doesn't even account for the fact the Jays don't really have any blue chip prospects to dangle.
hypobole - Saturday, June 10 2023 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#430016) #
Mayza started LHB- RHB - LHB. Next inning Switch - LHB. Francis then started with 2 RHB's.

I know some disagreed with that, but I liked it.
Mike Green - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 07:27 AM EDT (#430019) #
What does the actor Rosamund Pike have to do with baseball? Apparently, she's into "sporting minutiae" and recommends the book Atomic Clear. It's about how tiny changes can make a massive difference. AKA the Tampa Bay Rays Operations Manual.

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/jun/11/rosamund-pike-mother-neighbor-russian-spy-people-who-knew-me-interview
Gerry - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#430021) #
Jays have recalled Thomas Hatch with Bowden Francis optioned. I assume this is short term with a tired bullpen.
Gerry - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#430022) #
Just realized that Francis cannot be recalled for ten(?) days without an injury.

Maybe the Jays go on short rest nest week with the off day on Monday.

The Jays are not showing much faith in Francis. Pull him from the game when he is doing fine then option him down so he might not be available for the next starting opportunity.
John Northey - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#430023) #
I didn't like how the Jays were yesterday. Francis should've started as he is used to starting. Give him 4-5 if he can do it, then go to Richards/Mayza/White/whoever depending on score. Just felt they were getting too cute by having Richards go first followed by Mayza. I get the use of Mazya when they did with all the LH hitters coming up but it felt like poor planning. You have Francis here for a reason, same with White. One of them should've started then depending on situation you go with the other or with the 'good' relievers. This way no matter what Richards and Mazya were burned for today's game.

Hatch the Jays seem to still be high on for some reason. Not sure why, as he hasn't shown anything in the minors or majors since 2020 really. Sadly his 4.31 ERA in AAA is about as good as it gets for the Jays right now. Ugh.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#430024) #
ten(?) days

it might be 15 days for pitchers?

Mike Green - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#430025) #
The common element of the Montoyo and Schneider regimes is Pete Walker.

Evidently, Walker lacked confidence in Francis but was apparently OK with burning relievers in the game prior. Whether the GM still has confidence in Walker is another question, but it is rare for any changes to be made in season. Understandably, I suppose.
Mike Green - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#430026) #
Louie Varland is apparently a pretty good prospect. He has little in the way of platoon splits
Ryan Day - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#430027) #
It might not be ideal, but Francis is the best option the Jays have for a 5th starter now. I don't anticipate Manoah coming back quickly, and it's likely at least a month until you could consider Ryu or Tiedemann. They should be trying to get 3-5 innings out of Francis, instead of trying to do a bunch of bullpen days they really don't have the depth or roster flexibility for.
John Northey - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#430028) #
FYI: I hate the opener. I get the illusion of using an opener to get the other team to set a lineup around them, but teams aren't stupid, they know the opener will only be there once through the order. Also the old 'more runs scored in the 1st than any other inning' rule, but that is due to the offensive team being able to set the lineup as they wish in that inning only, and the defensive team not wanting to pull the pitcher unless absolutely necessary (ala Manoah's last start) and then only after a lot of runs have scored.

Basically I see the opener as a reaction to stats but without using stats plus logic to see that you are 'solving' the wrong problem.
scottt - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#430029) #
It's the manager who makes the final call.

Hatch is OK as a middle reliever. They don't need a starter until next Friday and the pen might be rested as Monday is a day off.
However, they play Baltimore and Texas next, so no easy innings, but maybe a blowout for the other side.
They could recall Zulueta, if it's to go through the order only once.

scottt - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#430031) #
It's another game within the game. They keep the opener for as long as they can if the the lineup work well for him.
The real idea is for the "bulk guy" to face the bottom of the lineup more than the top.
If a team has only 3 good hitters, that can work well, but if they have 7 or 8 good hitters it's kinda moot.

The other concept is to fit the lefty in a perfect frame that's identified before the game.
That may lead to pulling the preceding pitcher early if he doesn't get enough outs and then you need an extra arm later.

There is also the concepts of facing a hitter only once or twice and that later innings are "high leverage" even though it's still trying to get 3 outs against the same guys.

There's also the idea of using pitchers who are different form one another.
That's what they like about Cimber, but he throws 85mph, so he needs to have stuff and hit his spots.

Also, the Jays tend to defend according to the hitter but don't seem to factor the pitcher in.

John Northey - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#430033) #
The good thing is we have Gausman and Bassitt going the next 2 games, so that will give the pen some recovery time with any luck. Then comes Berrios (hit or miss with the innings) then 2 days of hell for the pen. Ideally you shift it so Manoah's slot isn't next to Kikuchi's anymore. Monday being an offday is great as that should get the full pen ready for Tuesday and beyond.

I see future rotation to the All-Star Break as...
  • Gausman (Min), off day, Bassitt (Bal), Berrios (Bal), Kikuchi (Bal)
  • Gausman (Tex), Pen Day (Tex), Bassitt (Tex), Berrios (Mia), Kikuchi (Mia)
  • off day, Gausman (Oak), Bassitt (Oak), Berrios (Oak), off day
  • Kikuchi (SF), Gausman (SF), Pen Day (SF), Bassitt (SF), Berrios (Bos)
  • Kikuchi (Bos), Gausman (Bos), Off Day, Bassitt (ChiSox), Berrios (ChiSox)
  • Kikuchi (Det), Gausman (Det), Everyone (Det), All Star Break
This would minimize the impact of the pend days and have the final pen day be right before the break when you want to use everyone so they don't have too long a layoff. The pen days (Manoah slot) are only 3 times from now until the break. Hopefully by then Manoah will have been straightened out and the pen can get a bit more of a rest.
scottt - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#430035) #
The starters have done really well with the extra rest, so I really hope they don't try to go with a 4 man rotation because without great starting performances this team is not winning.
uglyone - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#430037) #
they only need 3 more filler/bullpen starts before the all-star break, and that's if they make sure nobody ever goes on short rest, and gives them all 1-2 turns on extra rest.
John Northey - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#430039) #
If we go with a standard 5 man rotation instead of the adjusted one I listed we get...
  • Gausman (Min), off day, Bassitt (Bal), Berrios (Bal), Kikuchi (Bal)
  • Pen Day (Tex), Gausman (Tex), Bassitt (Tex), Berrios (Mia), Kikuchi (Mia)
  • off day, Pen Day (Oak), Gausman (Oak), Bassitt (Oak), off day
  • Berrios (SF), Kikuchi (SF), Pen Day (SF), Gausman (SF), Bassitt (Bos)
  • Berrios (Bos), Kikuchi (Bos), Off Day, Pen Day (ChiSox), Gausman (ChiSox)
  • Bassitt (Det), Berrios (Det), Kikuchi (Det), All Star Break
So adjusted gets Gausman 6 starts, Bassitt 5, Berrios 5, Kikuchi 5, Pen Days 3
Unadjusted gets: Gausman 5 starts, Bassitt 5, Berrios 5, Kikuchi 5, Pen Days 4

Basically trading a Gausman start for a pen day. I don't like that idea much. Guess it depends how the guys feel right now.
uglyone - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#430040) #
and I think it bears repeating that the bullpen day worked fantastic yesterday. 7ip with only 1 run, and only one high leverage RP used. If Cimber was the only option we had for the 8th inning that's not the fault of the bullpen day, but the fault of bullpen usage in previous games.
scottt - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#430042) #
Giving up 9 runs doesn't sound like success to me.
If anything, falling apart late is a morale breaking experience. 

Kikuchi giving up 2 runs through 5 innings shouldn't ruin the pen for the next 2 days.
That doesn't make any sense.
Also, I mentioned that they could have brought a reliever up when Manoah went down and wait to bring Francis up.
It's all made up problems.

uglyone - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#430043) #
well they got 6ip/1er out of their long reliever and emergency call up as a tandem start. That's a high quality start using only 1 regular pitcher, so that's a clear success imo. And then they got a 7th clean inning from one of their good relievers. If they were unable to bring in their other good relievers for the 8th and 9th that really had nothing to do with what the pitchers had done during this game.
Mike Green - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#430044) #
That's not the way the game goes.  You know what happened the previous day, and as management, it's your job to figure out the best way of handling the game in front of you.  There were two possible reasonable moves for the 8th- bring in Romano to go 2 innings or leave Francis in. 
uglyone - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#430045) #
True - he didnt pull Francis because he was forced to. If he felt he was in a pinching crunch he could easily have let him go longer. But he just thought cimber was the better option.
Mike Green - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#430046) #
Cimber has been bad all season, about the same as Manoah.  It would have been fine to use him in a low leverage situation, but high leverage when not necessary.  That was moronic and ironic (ironic in that Francis was here to replace Manoah). 
scottt - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#430047) #
It's like it was decided  before the game that Cimber, who lost in the 10th the night before, was the better option to pitch the 8th and Francis was there only to bridge it to Cimber.

It's either that or they just pull names out of a hat.

Mike Green - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#430048) #
Nothing like an Earl Weaver special.
hypobole - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#430049) #
Schneider and Cimber made sure Romano was well rested for today. Maybe that was their plan.:)

Danny Jansen looks ready to return. Caught 7 innings and went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles.
Nigel - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#430050) #
I’ll return to what I said a week or ten days ago (reinforced by Belt’s injury) - Biggio should be out at 2B for say 2/3’s of the time. Find out if a semblance of his former self remains.
uglyone - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#430052) #
Biggio got 300+ PA last year and is on track for about the same this year even though he's been mostly ice cold so far. I don't think he's being neglected really.
scottt - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#430053) #
Sometimes, it looks like they're just messing up with the gambling apps.
Nigel - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#430054) #
It isn’t necessarily the volume of ABs. His success has come as a regular 2B - try that for a while. Maybe playing 4 different positions a week doesn’t work for him.
uglyone - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#430055) #
but who are you taking AB away from to give to Biggio?

Shouldn't this 28yr old earn his AB just like everyone else?
Nigel - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#430056) #
You are worried about taking ABs away from Espinal?
Kasi - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#430057) #
Well you clearly platoon him but sure give him the games against righties. They can be more flexible in other games.
uglyone - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#430058) #
they've been similarly effective both career wise and this year and last wise no? not sure we need to play favorites there.
Michael - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#430059) #
Biggio was really hot in May, and if you do his numbers now in May+June you have 250/346/462 for a 808 OPS. That's a better OPS than Vlad has had this season, and much better than Vlay in May+June.

Selective sample sizes, and don't really expect that (Biggio > Vlad) to continue moving forward, but I'd say Biggio has been earning more playing time.
Nigel - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#430060) #
I wouldn’t go on a strict platoon - I’d start by keeping him away from high velocity starters.
Magpie - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#430062) #
[Biggio's] success has come as a regular 2B - try that for a while. Maybe playing 4 different positions a week doesn’t work for him.

but who are you taking AB away from to give to Biggio?


I think I agree with both of you. My brain hurts.
hypobole - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#430063) #
It's only somewhat Biggio vs Espinal. The player who has taken playing time away from both is Merrifield.

uglyone - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#430064) #
June stats for 2B/DH/LF before tonight:

* 1. Belt 32pa, 194wrc+
* 2. Merrifield 40pa 166wrc+
* 3. Varsho 38pa, 151wrc+
* 4. Guerrero 43pa, 114wrc+
* 5. Espinal 16pa, 75wrc+
* 6. Biggio 15pa, 20wrc+
bpoz - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#430066) #
Biggio was key in todays win.
John Northey - Sunday, June 11 2023 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#430067) #
While a lot drives me up the wall with this team (as it does every year), I like the Biggio-Espinal-Merrifield mix. Each has their role and gets rotated in as needed. Merrifield is the 4th OF/most common 2B and is in the lineup everyday. Espinal is the defensive wiz who covers 3B/SS as well as getting most of his PA at 2B. Biggio gets time at RF/1B/2B and can be used at 3B in an emergency (has 3 innings there this year). All 3 can be used as pinch runners, all 3 are decent on defense (Espinal by far the best on that). Neither Biggio or Espinal should be out there everyday (ASG appearance last year notwithstanding) but each does have value, especially vs the average backup player.

Check any old Jays playoff team and you'll see weak benches quite often with guys having career years (like Garth Iorg in '85 having his only year with an OPS+ over 81, at 121) or vets being given a last shot (Pat Tabler and Alfredo Griffin in the WS years for example). This year is different with Espinal and Biggio both being regulars very recently but not playing well enough to hold their everyday jobs, but still decent backups. Both have sucked mostly this year but I feel both can add value if used properly and I feel Schneider is doing that. Lukes, Luplow, Clement are all long term minor leaguers (AAAA types) who are just happy to get service time in the majors this year. Heineman is a traditional 3rd catcher - useful for a few games here and there, won't embarrass you on defense but won't win games with his bat either.

IMO the big challenge now is how to handle the 4th and 5th day in the rotation (Kikuchi and Manoah's slot). Having them back to back is a killer for the pen. The challenge also is Gausman pitches better on 5 days rest vs 4 it seems so you want to give him as much time off as possible. Also how to handle the pen - generally done OK but Romano & Swanson will be burned out if they can't get more rest. Green should help in a few weeks with any luck. Pearson is working his way into the trust circle. Garcia and Mazya are there generally. With 6 the manager should be able to trust with a lead things should work out. 7 will be Richards with 8 being a mess (Cimber/White/Pop/whoever) FYI: Cimber has 3 options left, Hatch is on his last option, Pop has 2, Francis 2, Jackson on his last, Thornton on his last, Tiedemann doesn't need to be added until after the 2025 season, although if he had been having a strong healthy year he might be that 5th starter right now.
bpoz - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#430071) #
Very good analysis John N. Stars are stars and bench/backup are just that.

Very hard to replace a star!! Ryu, Manoah and Berrios last year. Kikuchi seems a good #5 right now. 66IP to date. If he gets to 140-150IP them he qualifies as a #4 by my method of evaluation.

Looks like Biggio is a bench/backup.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#430073) #
Blue Jays - top 50 - single season - stolen bases:

(since 2000 - 11 seasons by 8 players)

09. Rajai Davis - 2012 - 46
11. Rajai Davis - 2013 - 45
18. Rajai Davis - 2011 - 34
21. José Cruz Jr. - 2001 - 32
21. Álex Ríos - 2008 - 32
29. Raúl Mondesí - 2001 - 30
29. José Reyes - 2014 - 30
34. Shannon Stewart- 2001 - 27
37. Bo Bichette - 2021 - 25
37. Kevin Pillar - 2015 - 25
44. Raúl Mondesí - 2000 - 22
scottt - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#430082) #
I suppose sending Cimber down for 15 days wouldn't be the end of the world.
I think he mostly needs some low leverage innings to find his form.

John Northey - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#430084) #
I love sidearmers and really want Cimber to succeed but right now he has issues which only innings can solve and those ain't coming here. Right now it might make sense to send Cimber down for 2 weeks and give Jackson a shot except that Jackson was just sent down on the 6th so can't come up until the 21st (10 day minimum for hitters, 15 for pitchers). If someone goes on the IL then Jackson could come up right away.

Pop's last minor league game was June 2nd (faced 3 batters, 1 K all 3 out, 9 pitches, 6 strikes), not sure why he hasn't pitched since (hopefully not a relapse).

Hagen Danner: just reached AAA May 30th, last pitched on the 11th, 1 2/3 IP 1 H 0 BB 3 SO 11 strikes, 7 balls.
Trent Thornton: last pitched June 9th, ERA down to 3.32, maybe relieving is his thing? Don't see him coming unless they need innings.
Yosver Zulueta: last pitched June 11th, ERA down to 4.70 but WHIP still at 1.79, not ready yet.

That's it for 40 man guys outside of Manoah and Francis, both down for a bit outside of injury.
hypobole - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#430085) #
Pop felt tightness in his hamstring after his last outing, which is why he's been shut down.
Nigel - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#430086) #
I don't think its unfair for folks to start asking some hard questions about why the Jays find themselves in such a dire pitching situation when just one of their five starters goes down. I'm sure the front office would say that they thought that they had the situation covered by the Hutchison and Thompson signings/acquisitions. Those options have been uniformly terrible. The minor league pipeline of AAAA type arms (starting and relieving) has been lacking and one has to ask if the pro scouting (on the pitching side) has been looking for the right things.
Kasi - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#430087) #
I think things are looking up on that regard. AA and high A have some promising arms. But yes AAA is dire and there is no lack of articles on that fact from the media. I also think part of it is a bad feedback loop in progress. They’ve had weak pitching prospects in general and they’ve traded prospects to fill that. This even goes back to the AA days. Just think of the Dickey or Josh Johnson or David Price trades where starting pitcher prospects were sent out. The new regime has done the same with the Berrios, Stripling and White trades. You send out pitchers in trades and now you lack number 4-5 or reliable bullpen arms so then you have to make trades to fill up those holes. It’s a losing game they need to get out of.
uglyone - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#430088) #
still don't like phrasing it that way.

manoah didn't "go down", he just pitched like crap. Meanwhile, the other 4 starters are pitching great.

The first extra options were Ryu and White, who both did actually "go down", and White has been terrible since coming back. At the same time, all the other options they have called up so far to fill the gap - Richards, Francis, Hatch - have so far been excellent.

there's really nothing too dire at the moment imo - we have 4 SP going really great, and need to fill in a handful of starts before other options become more realistically available in a month or so (i.e. manoah hopefully fixing himself and/or Ryu returning and/or trading for pitching around the all-star break to deadline).

92-93 - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#430090) #
Ryu went down in June of last year, and gave the front office plenty of time to plan around his injury. The expectation should have been receiving nothing from him for the remainder of his contract.

The real issue with the rotation's depth would arise should one of Gausman/Berrios/Bassitt get hurt, but they are fairly durable. Fingers crossed.
uglyone - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#430091) #
"The expectation should have been receiving nothing from him for the remainder of his contract."

He should be back midway through the year, as expected.
John Northey - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#430092) #
Nigel - good point. To us fans Thompson, Hatch, Hutchinson, Lawrence, Francis all looked like decent 7/8/9/etc. options with #6 being White (117 ERA+ for the Dodgers). Lets see what Jay playoff teams have needed...
  • 2022: 5 with 20+ starts, 8 (White), 6 (Ryu), 4 (Richards), 2 (Castillo), 4 singles (Phelps, Merryweather, Banda, Hatch) = 13 starters, but just 24 by guys past the big 5 (shifting Stripling to big 5, Ryu to spares).
  • 2020: dogs breakfast year: 2 with 10+ starts (Ryu, Roark), 3 over 5 (Anderson, Shoemaker, Walker), 2 with 4 (Pearson, Ray), 2 with 3 (Merrifield, Thornton), Stripling got 2 starts, and 1 each for Zeuch and Hatch.
  • 2016: 5 with 29+ starts (Stroman, Happ, Sanchez, Estrada, Dickey), 8 for Liriano, 2 for Hutchinson. That's it.
  • 2015: 4 with 28+ starts, 2 with 11 (Sanchez, Price), 5 for Norris, 4 for Stroman & Doubront, 3 for Copeland, 2 for Boyd, 1 for Redmond. - Big 6, then 15 by others.
Going back further we get into a fully different era. 1993 for example, had 16 pitchers total (5 with 26+, 3 others). 1992 had 17 pitchers total (9 starters); 1991 20 pitchers, 11 starters; 1989 had 19 pitchers, 12 starters; 1985 15 pitchers, 10 starters;

Funny how often 9-12 starters were still used in the old days. Pitchers are fragile things, to win you need 2-3 at least to stay healthy all year. You need to anticipate having 10-20 starts by non-top 5 guys, sometimes more. 2016's are rare where you have 5 who start nearly everytime asked. Then only needing 2 extras. Atkins had the right idea but didn't get the right guys it seems. I think AA was very smart when he beefed up the pro scouting crew so he could know more about AAAA guys who would be backups for everything.
hypobole - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#430093) #
Pitcher drafting hasn't been great, but more like average. The area where the Jays system has really lacked, even before the current FO, is the IFA market. Who was the last good Latino pitcher signed by the Jays? The 3 given big dollars I can think of, Pardinho, Meza and Cardona never made it out of A ball. That's almost 15 years.
hypobole - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#430094) #
I meant Latino stater, Osuna was great until.
uglyone - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#430095) #

and

Heineman won't keep hitting but even when we're healthy I'd still probably keep him up as the last bench guy, never really playing but letting Kirk and Danny be used freely as DH or PH as needed.

Though with Jansen/Biggio/Espinal being an excellent bench that can cover every position well and who can all hit, its easy in the short term when we're down an SP to just stick with a 3 man bench and call up as many pitchers as possible, and cycle them through as needed. And maybe that might even be the best thing to do longterm, too.
uglyone - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#430097) #
and an update on the off-season changes:

Cracka - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#430099) #
Who was the last good Latino pitcher signed by the Jays?

I can only think of 3 home-grown Latino SPs in the last 30 years: Henderson Alverez (for 1.5 seasons), Kelvim Escobar, and Juan Guzman. For comparison, the Astros have 4 such SPs on their current roster or IL (Valdez, Javier, Urquidy, and Garcia).
hypobole - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#430100) #
So 2 - Guzman was a Dodgers signing we got in a trade for Mike Sharperson.
92-93 - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#430101) #
There is scant evidence that Jansen and Kirk aren't being used freely, and 3 man benches are not allowed.
Nigel - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#430102) #
The IFA pitcher issue is particularly troubling when you look at the Houston experience.

I think the pitching situation is pretty dire - they don't have a single viable starter to fill Manoah's spot and God help this team if another starter can't go. You cannot expect your opening day 5 starters to pitch all 162.
uglyone - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#430103) #
thanks 92-93 forgot they had to carry 13 of each. I'd still go with Heineman I think.

Nigel - sure you can't expect the opening day 5 to be all you need, but at the same time you can't expect all your depth options to go bust all year either, but so far that's the case for the Jays. I don't know how much better a team can do as potential SP depth going into a season than: White, Ryu, Richards, Tiedemann, Zulueta, Pearson, Thompson, Hutch.
92-93 - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#430104) #
https://www.blogto.com/sports_play/2023/06/anthony-bass-not-only-toronto-blue-jay-following-hateful-accounts/

Seinfeld was so ahead of its time.
uglyone - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#430105) #
yeah i never liked this Bass thing because you really, really don't want to be limiting your team to only non-MAGA players.

more athletes lean that way than the opposite, i'd guess.
Mike Green - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#430106) #
The top 6 in the pen are Romano, Swanson, Pearson, Mayza, Richards and Garcia. Hopefully, their dangerous stuff is restricted to fastballs, sliders, splitters and changeups.
Kasi - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#430107) #
So the answer is don’t trade for players from Miami. Got it.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#430108) #
last word on Bass, but if anyone has another fish joke, just let minnow.
Mike Green - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#430109) #
Smallmouth better than largemouth.
hypobole - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#430110) #
What do you call a fishing hole where you catch bass? I'll leave it at that.
Michael - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#430111) #
Speaking of problematic online content, there's this fake news piece by Rich Lowry about the blue jays starting to circulate:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/06/toronto-blue-jays-promote-commit-to-starting-minor-league-catcher-who-identifies-as-non-binary/

It is produced in such a way that looks real/hides its satire, but obviously read a little off to me given what I know about the Jays and some of the late framing of the article.

I think it was created after/in response to the Bass issue? Or maybe it is just part of the anti-trans and gender phobia out of the right wing right now?

I wonder if it would be worth the Jays marketing staff would make some special Brady Deeker jersey's to help push back at this sort of thing.
bpoz - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#430112) #
I agree with Nigel that we are poor/mediocre at acquiring talent and we should be tough on the people in charge.

For example all the high picks Gillick had ended up as mostly busts. He was great at the rule 5 draft. As a non contender like TB which is a non contending contender, he traded valuable assets to get the likes of McGriff and Cecil Fielder. He let Fielder go to Japan (I don't know why)? Misused David Wells.

Ash was supposed to reduce a high payroll. He did that but the Olerud trade was incredibly bad. Tony Batista and A Rios were also quite dumb losses.

Richardi was the worst IMO. "I will not give up a ML player for David Wright a minor leaguer". Then his bad draft picks.

AA was good. He got us into the playoffs in 2015. Getting ahead of both NYY and Boston with his mediocre budget was a huge accomplishment IMO.
John Northey - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#430113) #
The assorted GM's were interesting to watch over the years with drafts, trades, free agency, UFA (undrafted free agents, mostly international), etc.
  • Gillick: Rule 5 was his draft - George Bell, Kelly Gruber, Willie Upshaw, etc. The regular draft was his nemisis until near the end. Around '89 I'd say he finally got it right with John Olerud (the year before he hesitated too long on Bo Jackson, planned to take him the same round KC did but drafted after them), then in '90 he got Steve Karsay (later traded for Rickey Henderson, ended with 11 bWAR), 91 was Shawn Green & Alex Gonzalez & Chris Stynes, '92 Shannon Stewart, '93 Chris Carpenter, '94 was a flop (no one reached 2 WAR). His early drafts were infamous for not taking guys like Roger Clemens & Dwight Gooden, among others, and instead going for Augie Schmidt and Matt Stark. Ugh. His trades though...oh those trades. McGriff for assorted junk is probably the best, most famous is Alomar/Carter for McGriff/Fernandez, he said the most boring was the one that got Rance Mulliniks (15.8 WAR here) for Phil Huffman (led AL in losses here, 4 2/3 IP after trade). It'd be scary to see how often he ripped off other teams in trades back then.
  • Ash: June draft was his thing (Halladay, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, etc.), while trades were his downfall (I prefer to forget most), not to mention his terrible manager choices (took the wrong Johnson [Tim over Davy], panicked over his lies and dumped him the next spring for Jim Fregosi), then as a PR move he put Buck Martinez in as manager.
  • Ricciardi: came in as part of the A's moneyball team, but then seemed to not know what he was doing. Drafting guys with a goal of short minor league time, high floor, instead of high ceilings. Meh trades, meh on managers (Tosca, Gibbons, panic hire of Gaston), a whole lot of meh is the nicest thing I can say about his term.
  • Anthopoulos: very creative, you never knew what he'd do. His trades were out of the blue and often big. His drafts were creative but not always well done (Syndergaard & Sanchez his first, but also wasted #11 on Deck McGuire when Chris Sale was 2 picks later). Did great with UFA in the end (Vlad). He showed the skills that later got him a WS ring with Atlanta, but was raw here.
  • Atkins: His first draft got Bo & Biggio, later Manoah, but still too soon to tell if he did well or not in most. I think we all agree his trades are so-so thus far with a couple maybe becoming big busts (White for example). At first did well on UFA (Lourdes Gurriel - Otto Lopez - Alejandro Kirk - Gabriel Moreno in 2016) but nothing since that first year...yet.
GM's are tough to measure. Right now Atkins is ahead of Ash & JPR (not hard), 8 years in he is ahead of Gillick ('84) as well but had more of a base to build from. AA didn't last 8 years here but only made 1 playoff appearance. Gillick had 5 including 2 WS wins of course, Atkins is up to 3 playoffs - so more than all GM's not in the HOF that have been here.
John Northey - Monday, June 12 2023 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#430114) #
Fielder being let go was an assortment of errors. First was the pure stupidity of keeping Willie Upshaw in the everyday lineup in 1986 when he stunk, then playing him everyday still in 1987 when he was obviously done (305 games between the 2 years at 1B/DH with an OPS+ of 90 and just 24 HR total and 118 RBI total even though the ball was enhanced in '87). Fielder meanwhile spent most of '86 in the minors, then '87 in a pure platoon with McGriff at DH. In 1988 Mulliniks had a great year as the LH DH with a 143 OPS+ while Fielder got under 200 PA with a 100 OPS+ - Jimy Williams got creative and put Fielder in at 3B and 2B in a desperate attempt to play him anyways. Really, there was nowhere to put Fielder in '88 with McGriff taking over 1B, then in 1990 Olerud took over at DH. Fielder just never fit - wrong place, wrong time. In Detroit he was right place, right time and got his 50 HR season, led the league in RBI 3 years in a row. Ah well. The 2 WS titles cover any pain from losing him.

There have been a few 'oops' moments in Jays history, but at least none as big as we see elsewhere (Roberto Clemente was a Rule 5 pick for example). David Wells was a big one, twice, released by HOF GM Gillick and later traded by Ash for an injured pitcher (he forgot to do a medical before finishing the trade). One could argue Jeff Kent, but David Cone helped a LOT in the 92 WS win. Syndergaard was painful but only made it to 16 WAR so far (very good but not an 'oh crap' like Lou Brock was). And even Ash never did a deal that lost a player as good as the Red Sox gave up for a middle reliever (Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson), or the Tigers did (John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander). I could go on of course. John Olerud and cash to the Mets for Robert Person was a really bad one, Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza, both really bad by Ash (yeah, he was a nightmare GM but a good Dr. Evil).
bpoz - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#430115) #
3 WC teams make it easier to make the post season. At least by the AS break and Trade deadline most teams will be in the playoff hunt. Therefore less sellers. This easier format will help Shapiro/Atkins be a good FO.

The Shapiro/Atkins drafts have had maybe 3 draft managers. Shane Farrell is the current one. He cannot be judged because of the short 5 round 2020 and the 20 round 2021/22. However 2021/22 benefitted from the short 2020 draft. The 2020 draft became the Austin Martin draft. By this I mean that the draft budget was destroyed in that picking #5 in each round was affected by having to make cost saving picks. Not picking Austin Martin would be a disaster if he had lived up to expectations.

Covid slowed the development of all picks especially the IFA signings. Again Shane Farrell gets sabotaged. But then every team faced the same situation. MLB is full of cheap IFA signings that became stars. Acuna, Kirk, Moreno and many others. Many expensive players have gone bust. The jays are signing a very large quantity of cheap IFAs. I expect this to pay off.

To get McGriff Gillick gave up present, short term talent like Dale Murray and Tom Underwood for a quantity of low level prospects. TB is using a similar tactic, but are giving up high level talent. D price, B Snell, C Archer and others are elite talent so the return would be high level prospects. TB does it backwards. The Jays cannot do this except in the off season.

Shapiro/Atkins drafting strategy has changed regarding their 1st pick. Zeuch , Warmoth did not possess elite anything but were picked in 2016/17. Maybe because they could rise fast and were considered safe. I believe/hope that strategy has changed.

I did not mention luck or dumb moves. Also not mentioned is the much higher payroll budget.

hypobole - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#430116) #
The hottest team in baseball is Arizona. After winning their 6th in a row, they've surpassed Atlanta and have the best record in the NL. But there is one other team on a 6 game win streak. That would be the...

Oakland A's. Yes, the team being compared with the Cleveland Spiders not long ago. Won the last 2 in Pittsburgh. Swept 3 in Milwaukee. Then last night beat Tampa 4-3. They've tanked hard and gotten a lot of heat for it. They are still the last place team in MLB with an 18-50 record. But wait, there is another team with only 18 wins. That would be the...

Kansas City Royals. !8-48. Oakland was in the playoffs in 2020 and had a winning record in 2021. KC hasn't had either since they won the WS in 2015. The A's have four players with at least 1.2 bWAR. KC zero. And despite all that losing and getting an extra CB pick each year, their farm system is ranked near the bottom by every publication.
bpoz - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#430117) #
I really thought Bobby Witt Jr was going to be the 2nd best pick of the 2019 draft behind Manoah. Whitt's bb are low but he was a HS pick so still young. Rutschman as college pick is doing well. Excellent bb/k rate.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#430125) #
2019 looks to be a killer first round as time goes by - Manoah leads in bWAR for now, but Adley Rutschman will pass him this year unless Manaoh comes back very strong, with Corbin Carroll also looking 'wow'. Bobby Witt is way down the list by WAR but still great potential. Of course, the O's got Gunnar Henderson in round 2. It'll be interesting to see the list in 5 years.
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