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Here we go.


It's been a good season for the Texas Rangers, who lost 94 games and fired their manager in 2022. It was obvious they were a much better team than that 68-94 record suggested - they went 15-35 in the one-run games, which is a) well nigh unfathomable, and b) cosmic payback for them going 36-11 in those games back in 2016.

They took steps to improve themselves, signing no less than four free agent starting pitchers. Two of them are no longer in the six man rotation Bruce Bochy is currently cycling through. Jakob de Grom quickly landed on the IL, not to be seen again until sometime in 2024. And southpaw Martin Perez had a rough month in July and was bumped to the bullpen when the Rangers added two starters - Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery - at the deadline. It's a six man rotation because Nathan Eovaldi, also a free agent signing, is being eased back into action after missing six weeks with a forearm strain. Eovaldi had been one of the best starters in the league before he went down. (The Jays will miss the fourth free agent starter, Andrew Heaney.)

The Rangers will be missing a pair of 2022 All Stars when they come to town. Rookie third baseman Josh Jung has been out for a month now with a thumb fracture - he may be back next week. Jung has been joined on the IL by right fielder Adolis Garcia with a patellar tendon strain. That's a knee ligament and the team is optimistic that he'll be back before the season ends. Robbie Grossman will probably get the starts in RF while he's out.

The Jays went down in the heart of Texas for three in the middle of June.

The Story So Far

Friday 16 June: Toronto 2 Texas 1 - A crisp pitcher's duel between Gausman and Perez. Texas took the first lead on a third inning solo HR from Taveras. In the fifth, Chapman led off with a walk and Jansen followed with a homer. It was only the second hit Perez had allowed, and that was all the scoring both teams would manage.

Saturday 17 June: Toronto 2 Texas 4 - Trevor Richards made three starts as a kind of Opener as the Jays struggled with a four man rotation for most of June. This was the start that didn't go so well. Staked to a 1-0 lead, he walked Garcia to open the second and gave up back-to-back homers to Jung and Heim. It was all that was required as Dunning pitched six strong innings and Seager added another homer later.

Sunday 28 June: Toronto 7 Texas 11 - Oh, this was a bad one. The Jays had jumped out to a 6-0 in the third inning thanks, but the Rangers got two back in the third and drove Bassitt from the game with three more in the fifth. Nate Pearson put out that fire, but lit one of his own the following inning, allowing three more runs to put Texas ahead. They added three more against Adam Cimber in the seventh. Ezequiel Duran had four hits and scored three times; Corey Seager had four hits and drove in three.

Corey Seager's having an MVP type of season - he's not going to win it, partially because he's already missed more than 40 games but mostly because Shohei Ohtani exists. He's had a tremendous season anyway. And our old chum Marcus Semien has been pretty good himself and, naturally, hasn't missed a game yet.

The Rangers score plenty of runs - no team in the AL has scored more - but they give up a few and their problems have revolved around the bullpen, which has posted an ugly 4.89 ERA and managed to Blow more Saves than they've converted. They have added a couple of veteran arms to the mix. Aroldis Chapman, acquired at the deadline from the Royals for Cole Ragans, has been adequate (and of course he brings you his own special karma.) Ian Kennedy hasn't been so hot.

Matchups

Monday 11 Sep - Dunning (9-6, 3.88) vs Bassitt (14-7, 3.69)
Tuesday 12 Sep - Scherzer (12-6, 3.91) vs Ryu (3-2, 2.65)
Wednesday 13 Sep - Montgomery (8-11, 3.62) vs Kikuchi (9-5, 3.57)
Thursday 14 Sep - Eovaldi (11-4, 2.90) vs Gausman (11-8, 3.28)


Texas at Toronto, September 11-14 | 214 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#436447) #
Adolis GarcŪa is a very impressive player.
hypobole - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#436448) #
Thanks Magpie, for getting this up expeditiously. I've been waiting for the Texas thread for this quiz.

Max Scherzer has been credited with 140 wins since the start of the 2014 season. Who has the most losses in that time span?
92-93 - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#436449) #
My guess is Gausman. It has to be someone who was pretty good the last 10 years.
greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#436450) #
Gausman was my guess as well.
greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#436452) #
Hopefully the Jays have a couple of games this series where their SP goes deep into the game and/or the offense comes to life early on, so that the team can somewhat protect its high-leverage relievers from overuse.

It would also be good to put additional pressure on Texas by beating them early in the series.
scottt - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#436453) #
Of course, Semien was on the 2021 team that missed the playoffs by 1 game.
It could be deja vu for Marcus.

Really need to win 3 here or Seattle has the tie-breaker. At least, it's the Jays who have the extra game to play.

greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#436454) #
How do you avoid letting Semien and Seager beat you? That is a key question the Jays have to puzzle out this series.
92-93 - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#436455) #
The Rangers bullpen has been used a lot more heavily than the Jays', so getting to it early tonight would set up the series well.

If I had an MVP vote it would go to Seager if they win the division and he maintains his production over the next 3 weeks.
James W - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#436456) #
Really need to win 3 here or Seattle has the tie-breaker.

This series won't affect Toronto's tie-breaker against Seattle. 3 wins are needed to get the tie-breaker against Texas though.
hypobole - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#436457) #
It's actually someone who was good, then bad. But healthy.
Magpie - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#436458) #
Who has the most losses in that time span?

Well, they're still letting Patrick Corbin pitch so it must be him.
greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#436459) #
It's actually someone who was good, then bad. But healthy

Alek Manoah?
Magpie - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#436460) #
If I had an MVP vote it would go to Seager if they win the division

Be good if the home team can make that difficult. Sorry, Corey (says the poet in me.)

Seager's going to end up with 119 games played this season, tops. As best as I can tell, the last position player to win MVP playing so few games was Gabby Hartnett in 1935. Who was a catcher for a first place team.
Magpie - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#436461) #
It's actually someone who was good, then bad. But healthy.

Mad Bum?
hypobole - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#436462) #
OK, more like good, then bad, then good, then bad.

MadBum and Gausman actually tied, but well shy.
hypobole - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#436463) #
Well, they're still letting Patrick Corbin pitch so it must be him.

Missed this post. Yup, Corbin. He's managed to lose 100 games since the start of 2014, despite not even pitching in 2014.
John Northey - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#436465) #
Huh. FanGraphs power ratings have the Jays at #4 "Tier 2 Ė On the Cusp of Greatness" with Atlanta, the Rays, and the Dodgers ahead of the Jays. Mariners and Rangers are in the same tier as the Jays. O's and Astros are in "Tier 3 - Solid Contenders". Yankees & Red Sox are in "Tier 5 - Spoiler Alert" Jays playoff odds at 79.1%.

By "Luck" the O's have the most at 8, Jays at 0, Padres at -11. Rangers are 3rd lowest at -6. They don't define luck very well but it sounds right to me at the extremes. The thing about luck is it can run out at the worst times (see last years playoffs, better yet keep trying to forget them).

For oddities - the Angels are now talking about trading Trout this winter. No way I see the Jays being in on that with seven years and more than $248 million on his contract given he is entering his age 32 season and last played 120+ games in 2019, 150+ in 2016. Just 2.7 bWAR in 82 games this year - still solid per game production but the # of games keeps shrinking. Basically the Angels would need to pay most of his contract and/or include a LOT of quality prospects to make him tradeable, unless they find a big fool of course. Last winter was the time, coming off his dead cat bounce year with 119 games played and 6.3 bWAR. He still is good on defense it seems, but I'd DH him a LOT in order to try to keep him healthy. I'd be shocked if he is traded this winter unless the Mets or Yankees decide they want to be foolish with their money, maybe the White Sox with a need to make a splash to get attention again.

The push to resign Kiermaier has begun with last nights cheerleader episode he had. I was certain he wouldn't be resigned but now I'm starting to think he might be. Unless there is stuff we don't see he seems very team orientated and is amazing on defense while hitting solidly enough to be out there everyday but doesn't seem to complain about sitting a lot. Could be perfect for 2024 as the Jays try to mix in some kids. and slowly shift KK to a 4th OF role but it depends on what others offer I suspect - wouldn't be shocked if someone gave him a 3 year $40 mil+ deal. Heck with 3.5 bWAR (just 2.3 fWAR) this year he might have been worth that much just this season. FG has him at $18 mil of value so far so I suspect the BR value would be around $27 mil. Belt and Merrifield not so much (I thought Merrifield was a lock until the past few weeks, really no need for him going forward outside of maybe a utility role).
uglyone - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#436466) #
So are we going to see Belt and Chapman this series? i'd hope that Belt is in for sure or else i'm worried he'll ever be back. Chapman's a more discrete injury and it was starting to sound like he'll be ready soon but maybe he needs another week.


Springer's awakening has rejigged my batting order expectations. I expect he'll be the leadoff guy from now on again, and he deserves it. I would guess that ideally coach will want Belt in the 2 hole both for his patience and his leftiness, and i agree. Hopefully Schneider has solidified the 5 hole for now until he stops producing. while KK shouldn't be sitting except for really tough lefties, and of course Kirk is in at catcher from now on. But when Chapman's back, then suddenly there's a very tight squeeze for the last spot, unless schneider goes cold.


* 1. RF Springer
* 2. DH Belt
* 3. SS Bichette
* 4. 1B Guerrero
* 5. 2B/LF Schneider
* 6. 3B Chapman
* 7. LF/2B Varsho/Merrifield/Biggio/Clement/Espinal
* 8. C Kirk
* 9. CF Kiermaier
92-93 - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#436467) #
On 590 this morning Buck made it seem like Chapman would be ready this weekend, or perhaps just after it.
Gerry - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#436468) #
Swanson is back. Jay Jackson is the odd man out.
John Northey - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#436469) #
Just for fun I checked FanGraphs for rookie stats. Schneider is #10 in ML rookie WAR (batters) right now, AL 5th. Gunnar Henderson is out of reach at 3.6 fWAR but the others are in eyeshot (#2 in AL is Josh Jung at 2.5). For pitchers only Tanner Bibee (2.9) and Hunter Brown (2.3) have more fWAR than Schneider. Brown has a high ERA vs his xFIP so he won't get many votes (a losing W-L record of 10-11 on Houston isn't going to help either). So at this point, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Schneider gets some down ballot ROY votes. He won't win unless he keeps this up the rest of the season and leads the Jays into the playoffs singlehandedly. Every other hitter with 2+ WAR has played over 80 games btw. #18 and #19 are the highest sub 80 gamers at 1.8, the highest sub 40 gamer is Sal Frelick (Mil) at 1.2. No one other than Schneider has 1 fWAR while playing under 30 games. Crazy.

If you go by seasons where they were qualified as a rookie (thus late season callups mixed in with full seasons at times) from 1970 to now Francisco Lindor is #1 for sub 100 games (99) with 4.0 fWAR, Yasmani Grandal with 60 games played and 3.8 fWAR is the best for sub half a season. Schneider comes in at #381. For the top 1000 he has the fewest games played at 23. For those with sub 50 games the top guy is a good warning about getting our hopes too high - Brett Lawrie in 43 games had 2.6 fWAR hitting 293/373/580, a 157 wRC+ which he did at age 21 in 2011 here. He never matched any of those numbers the rest of his career and was traded for Josh Donaldson (woohoo!) which worked out fairly well I'd say. 15 Jays made the top 1000, most of whom many here will remember led by Eric Hinske at 4.8 who won ROY at age 24 (31st best rookie year from 1970 to now) but only had 11.2 fWAR lifetime. Other Jays in the top 1000 were in order from highest fWAR to lowest Cavan Biggio, Danny Jansen, Devon Travis, Alex Rios, Jesse Barfield, John Olerud, Aaron Hill, Bo Bichette, Josh Phelps, Junior Felix, Fred McGriff (HOF), and Tony Fernandez. With 2.7 to 1.0 fWAR as the range.

Hmm... seems a few of these top rookies were a bit depressing. Well #1 overall is Mike Trout (10.8), then Aaron Judge (8.6), Fred Lynn, Mike Piazza, Carlton Fisk, Albert Pujols, with #7 and just shy of 7 fWAR being Corbin Carroll (wow, Arizona sure was smart to hold onto him eh?). Top 6 have 3 HOF'ers, 1 lock (Trout), and 1 likely (Judge) with Fred Lynn having 'just' a great career (49.2 fWAR). So great rookie years do happen to great players which should be of zero surprise. So will Schneider be remembered like Hinkse, Lawrie, and Travis or be more like McGriff? Impossible to say today, but we'll see.
Mike Green - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#436470) #
Hopefully Romano has the night off.   His last 3 outings have seen a lot of traffic (5 walks and 4 hits in 4 innings) and a lot of pitches.

Swanson can close with Hicks, Green, Mayza and Francis comfortably available. 
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#436472) #
Around the American League:

6:35 - St. Louis (Dakota Hudson) vs. Baltimore (Dean Kremer)

7:40 - Tampa Bay (Tyler Glasnow) vs. Minnesota (Sonny Gray)

8:10 - Oakland (Mason Miller) vs. Houston (Framber Valdez)

9:40 - L.A. Angels (Reid Detmers) vs. Seattle (Logan Gilbert)

Eastern time.
92-93 - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#436474) #
Belt is back, but Schneider sticks with Springer/Bichette/Guerrero as he intimated he would when he put Springer back up top.

The Rangers have 4 lefties in the bullpen, so Espinal and/or Merrifield will make their way off the bench tonight.
uglyone - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#436475) #
Belt is back, but doesn't get the 2-hole back...with springer up top Belt gets the cleanup spot.

* 1. RF Springer
* 2. SS Bichette
* 3. 1B Guerrero
* 4. DH Belt
* 5. 2B Schneider
* 6. 3B Biggio
* 7. C Kirk
* 8. LF Varsho
* 9. CF Kiermaier

trying read the tea leaves....

That biggio slot is chapman's spot longterm.

But lining up Varsho and Kiermaier back to back as lefties there means coach is definitely looking at lots of platoon options down there.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#436476) #
I'm glad Merrifield is sitting as he's in a horrible slump. It's shades of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. because he was the team's best player back in July and people were calling for the Jays to resign him this offseason or, at least, qualify him. What does everyone think now ? I'd resign him at a reasonable cost. I think he got wore down playing every day. (He is 35)
greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#436477) #
The Jays now have some good options for resting players. Partly because itís September (expanded roster) and also because of the emergence of Schneider, Clement, Horwitz. Would be nice to have Lukes around, too.
uglyone - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#436478) #
it's an open question as to whether a Biggio/Clement platoon would be better or worse than a Varsho/Merrifield platoon for that last starting spot (if schneider keeps hold of a starting spot himself).
Gerry - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#436480) #
Ben Nicholson Smith has an article up at sportsnet saying Alek Manoah is unlikely to pitch again this year. He is being tested for back, knee and quad issues. The article suggests the testing has found nothing specific but it seems getting ready for 2024 is now the priority.
greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#436481) #
Where are lineups first posted on the internet on the day of the game?
Marc Hulet - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#436482) #
Specific wording on Manoah:

Manoah got further medical testing done last week, meeting with multiple specialists to determine the severity of wear and tear on his knee, back, and right quad. No structural damage was found, so the team kept the door open to triple-A...

However, one source said Manoahís lingering physical issues are leading him to prioritize rest and recovery in the hopes that his health would benefit in the short- and long-term.

Sounds like Manoah is making a lot of the decisions. Too bad he maybe didn't prioritize his health as much as he should have during last offseason...
John Northey - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#436483) #
Sounds like the smart move with Manoah right now - 2023 was a write off for him. I'd have him doing conditioning and strength exercises as much as possible all winter so he is in peak condition come March 2024. Basically have him do anything but throw for the next few months. Maybe play in a neighborhood basketball league or something to get the competitive juices going without risking his arm to any significant degree.

As to Merrifield - yeah, he seemed an automatic to resign a few months ago but now not so much going into his age 35 season. His July was a 997 OPS month, then 580 August, 513 September. His OPS by batting position is interesting - 679 leadoff, 382 2nd, 410 4th, 648 5th, 775 6th, 804 7th, 984 8th. Clearly 2-5 is not right for him, keep him at the bottom when used.
christaylor - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#436485) #
I'm a fan of Merrifield, and usually, he's been a joy to watch on the field and a gamer. He had a great July when the team needed it.

Merrifield can probably find a better situation than the Jays going forward; the young players the Jays have up are in his lane.

Chapman and Merrifield seem pretty easy places to save resources for 2024 even when they were hot. I don't want to speak for most posters, but calling for the Jays to keep them was likely hopeium more than anything else.
uglyone - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#436486) #
Not sure why it would be hopeium. There's every reason to believe the jays will maintain payroll next year.

The idea that they're gonna lose all their free agents and just play a bunch of questionable kids instead seems much more like reverse hopeium to me.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#436487) #
Doh! I made Whit a year older than he actually is, and in looking up his stats I see his parents are Bill and Kissy (?) Merrifield while his siblings are Hite (?) and Costner ( After Kevin? )Merrifield.
Mike Green - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#436488) #
Kissy has a daughter named Hite. Ah. The 70s, you had to be there.

Maybe Whit is after the director Whit Stilman. 70s with Hite, 80s with Costner and 90s with Whit.
85bluejay - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#436489) #
Merrifield has an 18m mutual option - I don't know if a mutual option has ever been been picked up by both sides - I don't expect him back especially with the likes of Schneider, Clement and a bunch of infielders in the upper minors.
92-93 - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#436490) #
Payroll should go up if the Jays make the playoffs, but their resources will be better spent on an SP and a bat than on Chapman or the veterans on a multi-year deal.

Though if Belt or Kiermaier want to come back on a 1-year deal without guaranteed playing time, come on down.
greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#436491) #
Springer, Bo and Vladdy are a combined 14/30 against Dunning with 3 HR in their career.
Nigel - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#436492) #
Merrifield is making $10.75m this year (after his playing time bonus vested). He's put up somewhere between 1.6 (bWAR) and 2.1 (fWAR) for the year. His 2024 option is for $18m. The math says that he's been somewhere between ok to pretty good for his 2023 salary and would be a significant liability for his option amount. I think the offseason choice to move along is pretty easy given his age, salary and the other needs of the roster. Of course, if he were willing to come back on the cheap that's another issue.
christaylor - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#436493) #
I don't think I said anything about the resources not being spent at all. The hopeium comment was aimed at seeing those players back for years performing like they can, but clearly not for long stretches anymore.

If they play the questionable kids and the tradeoff is signing Ohtani I'll take it. Same for trading for Soto and extending him.

The FA class this year is best avoided and might as well work 2 or 3 younger players in and see what they can do.
hypobole - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#436494) #
Teams can and do make offseason suggestions for players. Players do whatever they want. They are not being paid.

Sure sounds like Manoah never mentioned his injuries until he was demoted.

As it stands now, if the Jays sign an MLB quality SP, that suggests Manoah is ticketed to Buffalo to start 2024.
uglyone - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#436495) #
I don't think any team is paying any of Belt KK or Whit as a fulltime starter this pffseas3 so all should be affordable.

Chapman will get paid as a starter but not a star.
uglyone - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#436496) #
As for SP i'd be looking at being Ryu back for a discount, with Manoah and Tiedemann ready to jump in.
greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#436497) #
How about Yamamoto? Gausman isnít going to be an ace forever.
hypobole - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#436498) #
Ben Clemens FG chat today:
Davis Schneider is obviously not going to keep hitting like Barry Bonds on steroids, but it sure seems like heís going to be better than unranked org guy, where do you think reasonable expectations fall for him?

Ben Clemens: : Stay tuned. Specifically, until tomorrow. Actually, maybe donít, because Iím not exactly looking into the long-term view, but Iím writing about him tomorrow is the point.
christaylor - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#436499) #
Snell, Nola, or Ryu would be good. I'd like to see Hicks back and another power RP option. The FA position players all seem worth waiting for deals. Yamamoto would be nice but it's probably best to pay him.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#436500) #
Umpires: HP: John Tumpane. 1B: Ryan Blakney. 2B: Emil Jimenez. 3B: Mike Muchlinski.

Emil Jimenez is a first-year umpire.† Mike Muchlinski is from another crew.† The crew chief†Marvin Hudson†and Hunter Wendelstedt are both absent.
Mike Green - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#436501) #
Obviously you don't want to your third baseman playing that far off the line with a runner on third.  There were two occasions for a mound visit in that half-inning- the pitchcom fiasco was the first. 
greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#436502) #
Well done, Schneider, Biggio and Kirk.
Mike Green - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#436503) #
I would have Francis warming.  Bassitt does not have his good control tonight. 
greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#436504) #
Incredible play by Chapman, I mean, Biggio!
greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#436505) #
Bassitt arguably should have pitched around Seager there. Maybe even intentionally walked him.
greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#436506) #
Bad send by Luis Rivera with none out, in my opinion.
Gerry - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#436507) #
Looked like a 50/50 call on the review. Whatever the home plate ump called would stand.

I agree that it was a bad send with no one out and the top of the order coming up. Good tag though.
Mike Green - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#436508) #
This is what happens when you move Schneider out of the cleanup slot!  Vladdy needs the inspiration close by. 
Nigel - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#436509) #
Very very poor send there with none out. Poor base running has been a theme this year.
Chuck - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#436510) #
Agreed, Gerry. The challenge rule is often mischaracterized as a way to get a call right. Thatís not, strictly speaking, true. Itís a way to overturn egregious mistakes, not close calls.
Mike Green - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#436511) #
In practice, they overturn "non-egregious mistakes" pretty regularly.  Very familiar territory for lawyers. 
greenfrog - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#436512) #
Disastrous game by the Jays so far. Lots of avoidable mistakes directly impacting the score. And Bassitt was left in way too long.
Mike Green - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#436513) #
It all started with the defective pitchcom.  It was the perfect time for a mound visit and get him a new one.  Bassitt was visibly upset and that coloured the entire inning. 
SK in NJ - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#436514) #
Very frustrating game to watch so far, but that's been the theme for the 2023 Blue Jays. I do want to hear an explanation as to why John Schneider, someone who will take starters out at 75 pitches when they are doing well, saw how Bassitt was doing all game and thought he could get through 6. They either base their decisions on analytics or feel, and I feel like keeping Bassitt in for as long as they did was based on neither of those things.
Mike Green - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#436515) #
It's been a long-running theme.  Bowden Francis has not been trusted no matter how well he pitches. 
Nigel - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#436516) #
The year long problems with teams over .500 are going to make this run in to the end of the year a problem. Weíre not in Kansas anymore Toto.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#436517) #
Same score in the football game.
Gerry - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#436518) #
In other news, Ben Wagner was on Blair and Barker today and he said that Manoah refused to report to Buffalo when he was recently sent down.

He eventually went but hasn't thrown a ball.
Kelekin - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#436519) #
There will be continued endless speculation when it comes to Manoah, especially with the news - but either way, whatever the issues are, I hope he works through it and comes back strong.
lexomatic - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#436520) #
Typical Jays... get a lead-off walk and then 2 quick strikeouts. Ugh
jz6pwc - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#436521) #
Scherzer might no hit these guys tomorrow night.
John Northey - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#436522) #
Appropriate night for the smallest crowd of the season it seems.
lexomatic - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#436523) #
That 3rd strike on Schneider was BRUTAL
christaylor - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#436524) #
0-4 and 3Ks. If Genesis Cabrera gets out of that jam, I think that line is a big talking point.

A split will be a win if they can manage it.
Nigel - Monday, September 11 2023 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#436525) #
When Chapman comes back, thereís a good argument that itís Varsho who should move semi regularly to the bench. Schneider, Biggio and Merrifield work as a three headed monster for 2B/LF.
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#436526) #
Schneider was the last of four called third strikes on balls outside the zone in the 7th and 8th. The other three were closer, but still - it makes a comeback, already a faint hope, nigh on impossible.
pooks137 - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 01:58 AM EDT (#436527) #

Last Jay I recall refusing to report to AAA was Steve Tolleson in 2015, where AA and Tolleson had a public dispute on whether Steve was healthy when DFAed.

https://nationalpost.com/sports/baseball/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-gm-alex-anthopoulos-accuses-infielder-steve-tolleson-of-quitting-on-team

Article says Tolleson was hurt since May, but had played two rehab games before being outrighted off the roster. Tolleson claims he was reinjured during one of the rehab games, then suffered more setbacks while traveling with the AAA team (sounds like he reported but didn't play).

AA put him on the temporary inactive list to withhold pay when he wouldn't suit up for the Bisons, but the article says his pay was later reinstated when complaining of a new hamstring injury during medical assessments/rehab despite the public shaming.

Not sure how it was resolved. The union would've argued that Tolleson deserved full MLB pay given him being hurt at the time of the DFA. But I don't think Tolleson's outright assignment was ever reversed.

It seems he likely at least got split contract AAA level pay from July 1st on then was quietly let go at the end of the year.

A 32-year-old Tolleson would play 11 games for the AAA Orioles in 2016 then be out of baseball.

Michael - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 03:44 AM EDT (#436528) #
Speaking of Schneider possibly earning ROY votes based on his amazing performance in the short time, it is very likely he'll be rookie eligible next year as well, and if things continue well he might well end up with votes in multiple years.

I believe based on quick searching there are only 3 players that have done this so far (ROY votes in multiple years). Any guesses as to who the 3 are? One of them at least is very familiar to all of us.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 03:50 AM EDT (#436529) #
Lawrie?
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#436532) #
Before last night, the Rangers didnít have a pitcher win since August 15th, a streak of 22 games.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#436533) #
Starting pitcher win, obviously
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#436534) #
I thought a big PA yesterday was Bichette's with the bases loaded after the Jays took a 2-1 lead in the second inning. A big hit there, with Dunning on the ropes, could have changed the complexion of the game. Unfortunately he flied out on the first pitch (a slider on the outer edge).
scottt - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#436535) #
I think the turning point was KK's out at the plate.
If the Jays take the lead, maybe there's a quicker hook and we don't see the low leverage arms.

I like Cabrera, but not against some of those hitters.

Also, there are some hitters they need to work around.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#436536) #
The relief corps this year is uniformly good and not great. The whole distinction between low leverage and high leverage relates almost exclusively to familiarity with the role.

Jordan Romano, the highest leverage reliever, is better than Bowden Francis, the lowest. But the difference between the two is maybe 1/2 a run per game (less than the difference between Gausman and Berrios or Bassitt). There is an opportunity there if the Manager and pitching coach could use what they have effectively.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#436537) #
I missed the game. How did Vlad do? I see the ugly line but how was his approach?
scottt - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#436538) #
By questionable kids, you mean Schneider?

Belt is having back trouble and is thinking about retirement.
Horwitz seems like a natural replacement. The line is very similar.
Maybe the defense isn't as good. Does that matter?

With Varsho in center there is an opportunity to run a platoon in left field.

I get that these guys are not top 100 prospects, but neither was Pillar or Devon Travis.

Trade and extend is a rarity.
You can only do that when the player is on a bad team going nowhere that wants to get several prospects instead of a QO. Most players want to hit the open market. Berrios was an interesting case because the Jays see him as an iron man who never gets hurt. Also, the manager was from Puerto Rico.
Berrios was no willing to sign an extension when they traded for him. That happened after.
Dickey was something else entirely. Soto and Ohtani will cost a ton to sign. There's no point in giving prospects away as well.

Glevin - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#436539) #
"When Chapman comes back, thereís a good argument that itís Varsho who should move semi regularly to the bench. Schneider, Biggio and Merrifield work as a three headed monster for 2B/LF."

I don't know. Since August 1st, Varsho has a 100 WRC+. Merrifield's is 51. Think he should be the one being benched mostly.
92-93 - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#436540) #
Schneider earned a +1 OAA for his 2B defense last night. He showed poor range on two grounders, made a bad throw on a routine pivot, and handled one GB hit right at him.
92-93 - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#436541) #
It would help, Mike, if Schneider understood that being down 1 run against TEX in the 6th is a more important spot than up 3 or 4 in the 9th against KC.

The game was lost last night on Rivera's boneheaded wave home followed by sending Bassitt back out down 3-2 despite him clearly not having much last night. It was awful coaching and managing.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#436542) #
I think Rivera had the context wrong. In a different situation, say, late in a tie ballgame with two out, with the Jays struggling to cash runners from scoring position in any situation (as was the case earlier in the season), it would arguably have been appropriate to send Kiermaier home with a chance to score the winning run.

Down 3-2 in the fifth inning with none out and Kiermaier on second, sending him home on a sharp single to left, with Bichette on deck, was ill-advised.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#436543) #
Now Jose Siri is out with a fractured hand. The Rays can't catch a break (although they keep on winning).
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#436544) #
I felt that Bassitt over-reacted to the malfunctioning pitch-com likely because he was nervous. He had a case of the sillies on the bench on the road trip prior to this start.

A mound trip to get him a new pitch-com and to settle him down was in order. Kirk could have done it, but he's probably not at his sharpest because of the increased workload. I am pretty sure Jansen would have. Walker could also have done it.

When Garver reached third base with Biggio way off the line and he started going halfway to home, Bassitt was clearly distracted. After the first disengagement, Walker should have popped out to discuss the situation with Bassitt and the infield.

I don't think Bassitt's loss of control last night was inevitable. Yogi's aphorism about pitching being 45% mental seemed a bit of an understatement to me on this occasion.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#436545) #
BBQ Scherzer.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#436546) #
Not the 1st time this year Bassitt seemed to unravel over something most every other pitcher doesn't.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#436547) #
I wasn't watchingor have forgotten, hypobole. Can you give another instance?

It's definitely the job of the catcher and pitching coach to handle these things. Buck Martinez didn't say anything about it, as he likely would have a few years ago.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#436548) #
Maybe the Manoah situation has been talked about enough, but Ben Wagner was on Blair & Barker last night and he states that Manoah and his camp were miffed about him being sent down to AAA. Blue Jays management tried to cover up the situation by sending him for tests for a non-existent injury. Also, adding to Manoah's angst was the fact that in being sent down he wouldn't accumulate enough service time to qualify for Super Two status.

My take is that Manoah has developed a big ego after last year and is putting himself ahead of the team. Last year, Kikuchi volunteered to go to the minors when he was struggling but the Jays didn't do it. Instead, he spent the offseason working hard to regain his form, which he has. In my view, even if Manoah doesn't pitch at all at Buffalo, he needs to work like he never has before this offseason --- get in peak physical condition, study film, report early tp spring training and try to figure out what went wrong this season.
Nigel - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#436549) #
Glevin - given the funk that Merrifield has been in, I could understand sitting him. There would be sense in that too. Here's what each of the 4 have done since May 1:

Varsho - 84 wRC+
Chapman - 85 wRC+
Merrifield - 94 wRC+
Biggio - 120 wRC+
hypobole - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#436550) #
Early in the season. Maybe the Tampa game in May.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#436551) #
Also, Biggio has made a couple of great defensive plays recently. He did this last night as a third baseman. Several weeks ago he did it as a second baseman (completing an unassisted DP). He showed excellent baseball IQ and quick reactions both times.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#436552) #
Thanks, hypobole. I will check it out.
Ducey - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#436553) #
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/into-the-schneider-verse/
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#436554) #
If I'm making decisions on playing time based on current form, I'm definitely not going back further than 60 days, and I think I'd prefer to look at the past 30 days.

60 days:

Biggio - 135 wRC+
Varsho - 89 wRC+
Merrifield - 88 wRC+
Chapman - 92 wRC+

30 days:

Biggio - 131 wRC+
Varsho - 114 wRC+
Merrifield - 40 wRC+
Chapman - 4 wRC+, but only 39 PA

Merrifield is definitely the odd man out for me. Which is not to say he shouldn't get any starts, but I'd definitely play Biggio & Varsho against every right-handed starter. Chapman has definitely not been good recently, but he has by far the best track record, and I can't imagine benching him in favour of any combination of Biggio/Varsho/Merrifield would go over well.
soupman - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#436555) #
The stories about Manoah have it looking like he needs a change of sceneryÖis there a team this offseason that will bet on the upside? The free agent crop looks weak so this may help boost the value somewhat, though pro sports trades tend to have a high degree of decency bias. Curious if anyone had similar thoughts or speculations on potential fits.
Nigel - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#436556) #
GabrielSyme - I think that there's no chance that Chapman gets benched when healthy but its a hope and a prayer that he bounces back. On May 1, he was leading all MLB position players (non-Ohtani division) in fWAR at 2.2 - in the last 4.5 months he's been slightly above replacement level and injured. Vladdy has rightly taken heat for his year but he's had plenty of help over the year.
Dewey - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#436557) #
Yes, Manoah needs to be gone. His childish attitudes canít have earned him any points in the front office, or even in the dugout. Heís much more about himself than about the team. If they can get something at all decent for him, go for it. And the sooner the better. Too bad.
Polite Nate - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#436558) #
The only explanation I can think of for the Manoah situation is that he himself believes that there's an underlying injury (and so he should go on the IL, earn MLB money and service time) and the team disagrees. Hence the friction between the official story of endless testing and the rumors of intransigence. This isn't a sport where you are going to get far trying to be a holdout, and regardless of Manoah's maturity, it's Sherritt negligent on the part of his agent to take this tactic.

My position as the Jays would be "ok look, we'll trade you somewhere else if that's what you really want but we're not going to give you away for nothing, and that means you have to show teams you're literally going to play ball so get to pitching in AAA or we'll let you rot on the restricted list until we're forced to waive you." Of course, I have no idea of the roster rules involved in this mess so who knows whether that's viable.
soupman - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#436559) #
The perils of composing a post on the phone and not proof reading. Recency bias, is of course the intent but ďdecency biasĒ also seems apt
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#436560) #
Whoa, Nigel. Chapman is currently at 4 bWAR and 3.1 bWAR, leading the Jays in both versions. The overall figures are right in line with reasonable expectations for him. It's nothing like Vladdy.

I generally find it unhelpful to measure much by a single month in the space of a major league career. It's of even less value than attaching much to a player's first month (hello, Davis!).
soupman - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#436561) #
I have strong doubts that there is an acute physical injury here. Iím open to players getting paid for psychological ďinjuriesĒ - but as a fan itís hard not to be frustrated with what appears to be a bruised ego. Hey I was young and ambitious with a chip in my shoulder, too. Does every organization struggle with apparent entitlement like ours appears to? Itís sad that the seeming obvious direction is to move on- and I think the moves last off season (and in their FA signings in whole) indicate that the front office values ďcharacterĒ even if the guys we shipped out didnít seem like malingerers themselves, perhaps just enablers. It may be difficult but this off-season might be one that targets the ďrootĒ of the issues more directly. I know itís an unpopular position given how individuated baseball is compared to other sportsÖand I think itís easier to talk about moving on from electric talents than it is to actually do so. With that said I also think this off-season would be a bad time to trade Vlad. I remain convinced the power drain is related to the wrist and heíll go on a tear next year.
Nigel - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#436562) #
Mike - its actually one month that has completely distorted the view of Chapman this year. He was insanely great in April - not so much for the next 4.5 months. He's going to play of course, and rightly so based on his history, but he's been mediocre to poor for most of this year and its a hope that he'll bounce back. FWIW, I also have some questions about how much defensive credit he's getting from bWAR these days.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#436563) #
I doubt the Jays trade him yet. AA got players cheap because of extreme makeup issues (Yunel, Lawrie, Rasmus) but they were succeeding more or less when acquired.

Guessing the Jays give him another shot next year to rebuild value.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#436564) #
I don't think so, Nigel. I looked at his first month and thought that it wasn't of much significance considering the long-standing career path. I mean it wasn't like Jose Bautista hitting 10 home runs in September before he broke out-essentially evidence of a new skill.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#436565) #
I agree, hypobole. But they shouldn't pencil him into the rotation to begin the year.
Polite Nate - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#436566) #
It is kind of interesting just that one side of the Sportsnet house is putting out the sanitized version of the story while another side is spilling some alleged tea. Going to put pressure on something more official to come out on the story.
92-93 - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#436567) #
When was the last time the Jays had 5 LHB in the lineup? Maybe when Lukes was around, but it feels like it's been awhile.

I don't understand why Horwitz is batting ahead of Biggio, but whatever. I wish they would put a guy who takes pitches in the #2 spot so that they aren't stacking 3 hackers 1-2-3.
85bluejay - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#436568) #
The Jays FO erred in my view in bringing back Manoah so quickly and that may have precipitated this saga.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#436569) #
I'm pleased the Jays put Belt on the IL. Better that than using an injured and ineffective Belt in the lineup during this key stretch. Yesterday he whiffed on at least two hittable fastballs near the middle of the zone. I look forward to seeing what Horwitz can do over the next week and a half (hopefully he gets used exclusively against RHP).
soupman - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#436570) #
I think the biggest change in his tenure was moving away from targeting high upside guys with issues in the room. The Russ Martin contract was the biggest in Jays history at the time and I think is overlooked sometimes. Thatís a player that either coincidentally made the playoffs with some marginal teams for many years in a row, or is a big cog driving almost any team into a playoff spot despite having numbers that donít pop off the back of a baseball card.

The Cards won the series after ditching Rasmus. The Braves made the playoffs after ditching Yunel even without a star in waiting. The Brewers won the division and lost in the NLCS the first year after Lawrie. All those were trades I loved for Toronto at the time, but looking back- I think they ultimately show what AA demonstrably learned the hard way about building a winning team.
scottt - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#436571) #
Bassitt seems to lose it when something happens out of his control, like not getting the call on a strike or a play no made behind him. It has happened half a dozen time this year. I guess that's his weakness and you have to take the bad with the good. It seems that in previous years he would have reacted by slowing the game and it might have gone unnoticed.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#436572) #
I can understand that Manoah feels jerked around. The team seemed to be communicating that they were confident he could work through his issues in the majors after his promotion and that he would be given leeway to do so. Then they demoted him a few starts later.

But refusing a second demotion doesnít seem like a good solution. Maybe heís trying to force an off-season trade. Or signal that itís the majors or bust for him next year. Either way, heís coming across as petulant or self-centered.
scottt - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#436573) #
Manoah--like Bichette--rejected the nominal raises offered by the Jays.
Eventually, Bichette reached arbitration and signed a 3 year contract.
Manoah would have been a super 2 which hurts his pocket.
Still, it's entirely performance based.
Last year, he collected over 2M in pre-arb bonus as per the CBA for a strong Cy Young finish.
So, he's losing quite a bit.

Clearly, he doesn't want to be pitching in the minors.

He spent very little time in the Jays minor system so, he might feel like he's got nothing to learn there.

At the same time, if I was the Jays, I'd sign a 5th starter for next year and bump him into the 6th starter who pitches in Buffalo role.

jz6pwc - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#436574) #
The team treated his issues like they were no big deal and he would work them out and that everyone has confidence in him.  In other words they were not being honest to us or the player. The messaging earlier on is what is causing these issues now.
He should have been sent down long before he ultimately was and he should have never been called back up until he earned a promotion.
Nigel - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#436575) #
I'm not going to pretend to know who's right and wrong in the Manoah situation because a lot of stuff that has nothing to do with on field performance can be in play in these situations. What I will say, is that the risk of this ending in tears (for one reason or another) seemed much higher when he was rushed back. Many people asked the questions: "where do you go from here if the problems aren't actually fixed?" and "how can you know if things are fixed based upon 2 or 3 minor league performances?" (which weren't that good) - and I've yet to hear a good answer to those.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#436576) #
With Manoah it is clear he was rushed, but given what we are hearing I suspect he was the one pushing hard to be back. I suspect this is the price of a guy who shot through the minors super fast - his ego is way too big and he feels he doesn't need the seasoning others had. I wouldn't be surprised by a trade this winter, but it'd be for pennies on the dollar. A big challenge coming for Atkins, mixed in with what to do with the free agents and which kids are ready for 2024. It'll be an interesting winter no matter how 2023 ends.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#436577) #
Good start by Ryu.

Not-so-good start by the 1-2-3 Jays hitters. Springer popup on a 3-1 centre-cut FB he knew was coming. Vladdy shallow fly out on a FB also near the centre of the zone. 10 pitches and done for Scherzer.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#436578) #
Biggio has been watching Chapman video.
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#436579) #
You really should only be using recent stats to determine playing time decisions on the margins, with players who are relatively equal in stature and future expectations. Chapman has the established level of play of an all-star; he should play unless there's something physically wrong. For Merrifield, the situation is very different - he's long removed from his heyday, and as good as he was earlier this season, we shouldn't expect him to rebound to a level of performance he hasn't consistently demonstrated since 2019. If we are looking to allocate playing time between players like Merrifield, Biggio and Espinal, I have no difficulty playing the guy who's looked best recently.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#436580) #
Looney hot-dogs and Mad Max Scherzer-burgers.
scottt - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#436581) #
He wasn't rushed from the minors because he wasn't actually sent there.
They sent him to their performance center and he only played 2 games in the minors, for teams that are locally in Florida, so he didn't have to ride the bus with the other minor players.

He wasn't treated as a guy who was demoted because of lackluster performance.
He was treated as a player on rehab even though he's not on the IL.

As for honesty, we're not party to what goes on between a player and management.
The management is free to make stuff up to protect the player.
That is not dishonesty.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#436582) #
Vlad has the lost strike zone again. 
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#436583) #
The Jays offense is weak.
krose - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#436584) #
Yes. The Jays hitting is not what it needs to be for a playoff team. Iíve got Atlanta and the Phillies on the other channel. Man! Atlanta put up a quick 5 this inning. What a lineup. The Phillies fans are looking a little bewildered.
Eephus - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#436585) #
Situational hitting? What a concept.

At least Scherzer is fun to watch.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#436586) #
The lack of power/pull in this offense has been glaring all season, and even more now without Jansen and Belt who I believe are the only everyday players with ISOís over .200. The ďhit the other wayĒ singles oriented offense is just not playoff caliber. We just have to hope the pitching can carry them but against non-bad teams, itís going to be difficult for this team to score enough to win.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#436587) #
Ryu has pitched very well despite the three runs he has surrendered.  A little bad luck and  one home run.  He's thrown 82 pitches, so they'll probably take him out.  Which is unfortunate. 
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#436588) #
As Buck said, excellent job by Heim.  Scherzer would have kept pitching if Heim hadn't come out to the mound after seeing the grimace. 
Eephus - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#436589) #
Just as I say thatÖ Mad Max hurts himself and has to leave the game. Is there anything to enjoy about this? Iím open to suggestions, please (and I agree Ryu looked quite good also)
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#436590) #
Horwitz/Schneider/Biggio are always fun to watch, Eephus.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#436591) #
It must be tough to stay healthy when youíre 39 and have pitched almost 3000 innings in the majors. I enjoyed watching Scherzer tonight as well. The Jays batters looked intimidated by him.
Eephus - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#436592) #
Ouch, Vlad. That wasÖ not good.

Itís kind of insane to think that without Davis Schneider, this team might already be well out of hope for a playoff spot. But this has been the kind of season to put one in a straight jacketÖ.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#436593) #
I do not enjoy watching Yimi pitch. He probably just put the game out of reach (if it wasnít already out of reach).

Good call, Mike Green.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#436594) #
Is it safe to say that John Schneider lacks good instincts about when to pull (or leave in) his starting pitchers?
Eephus - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#436595) #
Horwitz definitely looks interesting to me. Maybe he can be a Mark Grace-light type? And Iíve always liked Biggio.

Ryu definitely deserved better. Those 62 mph curveballs were delightful to watch. Trying to find the little positives, I swear!
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#436596) #
Thanks, greenfrog.  It's definitely true this series so far.  John Schneider left Bassitt in too long and took Ryu out too quickly. Neither was a particularly difficult call, I thought. 
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#436597) #
The team has 3 hits through 6. Probably not the time to be pining losses on Yimi?
Eephus - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#436598) #
Biggio has looked sharp against lefties.

Also Espinal wtf are you doing, dudeÖ. Youíre down 3. Unacceptable.
Eephus - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#436599) #
Even if he is safeÖ thatís dumb baseball.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#436600) #
Biggio up to .725 OPS.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#436601) #
Agreed eephus. Very fortunate to have that overturned.

Perhaps Espinal was worried about the Jaysí propensity for double plays? (Kidding)
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#436602) #
Bad decision to try for second. Salvaged it with the slideÖbarely.

This game might be 3-1 right now with runners at second and third and one out, had Ryu been left in. The managerís decision-making looms large.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#436603) #
two RH pinch hitters and neither of them named Merrifield.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#436604) #
Springer back to CF for the first time this season?
Magpie - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#436605) #
Apparently Merrifield has tightness in the groin.

So... Biggio to RF, Schneider to LF, Springer to CF, Clement to 2b, Espinal to 3b? Make your best guess!
christaylor - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#436606) #
The broadcast said early in the game he was hurt, this would be consistent with that even if it did seem like a cover story a couple of hours ago.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#436607) #
put the AAA guys at the top of the order.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#436609) #
Rank in order of annoyance: Jesse Pinkmanís same game parlays, Springer/Manoah chicken hijinx, Bitbuy guy, chief home run executive.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#436610) #
I'm going to start my post off by pointing out a positive...the Blue Jays are still in a playoff spot.

Now, the time has come where I no longer pin blame on Vladdy. I'm at a point where I do not expect him to fulfill his max potential either this season or rest of career. What I am wondering, though, is if it's not Vlad who is the problem but this regime. I've been criticizing Vlad, rightfully, but deep down I always thought he would have turned things around by now. Seeing him struggling as he is (for the player I think her can be) is tough to watch. Bo Bichette is notorious for doing his own thing and using his own approach. Is it possible that this regime has prevented young and hyped players like Vlad, Pearson, Biggio and Manoah to reach their full potential?
Chuck - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#436611) #
Iím sure his teammates love playing poker with Taveras.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#436612) #
I know it would never happen in a million years, but just for variety, I wouldn't mind seeing a batting order on Thursday (against Eovaldi) of:

RF Springer
SS Bichette
1B Horwitz
2B Schneider
3B Biggio
LF Roden
DH Vladdy
C Kirk
CF Kiermaier
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#436613) #
Rank in order of annoyance: Jesse Pinkmanís same game parlays, Springer/Manoah chicken hijinx, Bitbuy guy, chief home run executive.

All with 10 mutability quotient.  Chief Home Run Officer wins by a nose. 
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#436614) #
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/into-the-schneider-verse/
Chuck - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#436615) #
Schneiderís 1300 OPS matches peak Bonds. The cream? The clear? Do we need to check his pee?
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#436616) #
I'm sure he's being tested a lot, especially lately.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#436617) #
Probably hiding rosin in his moustache.
Eephus - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#436618) #
Do we need to check his pee?

Shame that the team he plays for seems intent on flushing away his performance.
christaylor - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#436619) #
It's weird to blame the regime, to paraphrase a Rabbi, "Who am I hitting for if I am not hitting for myself?"

Sure it'd be great to see Vlad hitting for the team and carrying them but he's not done helped himself over th' last 18 months.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#436620) #
The saying is from Rabbi Hillel. The last line is: "If not now, when?" Which seems appropriate.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#436621) #
Davis is now hitting a cool .370/.500/.815 (250 wRC+)

The funny thing is, the Jays were chastised (including by me) for not landing a strong RH bat at the deadline. Then they promote Schneider and he does this. Baseball can be wonderfully unpredictable at times.
christaylor - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#436622) #
I was hoping someone would chime in with the third of the three questions as baseball wisdom seems to provide the answer to wt least this one as, "There's always next year."
John Northey - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#436623) #
Argh, knew the minute I started trusting Garcia he'd turn back into a pumpkin. This was his 5th game this month and in all but 1 he allowed at least 1 run to score, this was the 3rd of those times he allowed 2 to score. August 10 IP 1 R allowed, just 2 of 7 inherited runners allowed to score. 2 of 2 inherited have scored this month. Sigh. Relief pitchers are often as predictable as the weather it seems.

Schneider and Biggio at least seem to be alive for this series - 2 hits each today. Sadly Bo & Vlad are asleep at the wheel it seems, 0-8 today, after an 0-8 yesterday. Schneider & Biggio were 2 for 6 that day. So those 2 are 6-14 so far with 2 HR while Bo & Vlad are 0-16. Lets hope things go better tomorrow. Bo & Vlad are too good to keep this up one would think.
Kasi - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#436624) #
Bo I think is still working up to speed. Vlad is just doing his usual show a glimpse every five days and then go cold again schtick.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 12 2023 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#436625) #
Vlad has all 3 of his options left :)
dalimon5 - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#436626) #
Unfortunately it's likely that the impotence of this offense has tired out our pitching and it is not catching up to us.

I don't know what the actual stats say but I don't remember a season with so few come from behind victories in the 7th inning or later. Hell I even remember Franklin Morales winning a game for the Jays in the late innings "back in the day."

Seeing Vlad and Bo against Seager and Semien and it looks like "good" players against "very very good" players. I feel bad for Vladdy now with all of the pressure thrust on him.
Michael - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 06:03 AM EDT (#436627) #
Yesterday I posted:

"Speaking of Schneider possibly earning ROY votes based on his amazing performance in the short time, it is very likely he'll be rookie eligible next year as well, and if things continue well he might well end up with votes in multiple years. I believe based on quick searching there are only 3 players that have done this so far (ROY votes in multiple years). Any guesses as to who the 3 are? One of them at least is very familiar to all of us."

and the only guess I saw was Lawrie (which is wrong - he didn't get any votes in any year; Hellickson won in 2011 Lawrie's first year, and Trumbo, Hosmer, Nova, Pineda, Ackley, Jennings, and Walden were the other vote getters in order). The answer is:

Gregg Jefferies New York Mets (6th in ROY 1988, 3rd in ROY 1989)

Ryan Mountcastle (the one very familiar as a Jays killer) Baltimore Orioles (8th ROY 2020, 6th ROY 2021)

Ian Anderson Atlanta Braves (7th ROY 2020, 5th ROY 2021)

The shortened season with pandemic in 2020 made it easier for people to compete in ROY and still keep their eligibility. But I think it extremely likely that Davis will get some down ballot support for his historic start of career, and if he does, then if he can follow up next year he may join the list.
Jonny German - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 08:02 AM EDT (#436629) #
Thanks for the trivia Michael, I thought it was interesting.

Another ROY question, tho much easier: What player hit 17 home runs the year before he won Rookie of the Year?
John Northey - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#436631) #
The rookie questions are fun - I thought it was Tony Oliva but I was wrong (he played 2 seasons, just 16 games, before winning ROY but didn't hit a HR in either). Jays used to have a frustrating habit of doing that too - calling guys up for Sept callup type length but not giving them a full shot until years later - Vernon Wells had 3 years of those (57 G 197 PA 82 OPS+ thus removing rookie status before he had a full shot), Delgado had 3 years of partial call ups (82 games 260 PA 75 OPS+ - 1994 he started in APril but after blazing hot start (258/361/839 through 9 games 36 PA) he dropped to 202/350/313 over 34 games 123 PA - 185/371/241 over the last 22 games. Still taking walks, but the power and average vanished and his defense in LF was ugly as I recall. 1B/DH were full with Olerud & Molitor so it was tough mixing him in. Once clearly out of it in 1994 or by mid 1995 the Jays should've traded Molitor but they didn't. Sigh.

As to this season the Jays are now just barely out of a playoff slot (lose in tiebreaker vs Seattle) and really need to win at least one of the 2 left with Texas. Kikuchi vs Montgomery (105 ERA+ - Texas lost 4 of his last 5 starts, he gave up 5+ runs each of his last 2 starts one vs Oakland) tonight, and Gausman vs Eovaldi (152 ERA+) tomorrow. So tonight is the night we expect them to win - blow this one and the pressure skyrockets. Still, even in the worst case they still have a shot. Lets hope it isn't worst case though.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#436632) #
An interesting point in the Manoah situation in a Star article by Mike Wilner - Manoah might have been angry about being sent down when last year during a pennant race the Jays kept Kikuchi in the rotation despite having options for him too plus Berrios (no options).

So I thought lets look closer....
Kikuchi pulled from rotation August 15th with a 5.25 ERA, reaching 6 innings only 3 times all season.
Manoah pulled from rotation to minors June 5th with a 6.36 ERA reaching 6 innings only twice. After coming back he reached 6 twice more, 4.91 ERA. Went 6 2/3 the start before his final one but in 3 of his 6 starts post return he failed to go 5. 3 of 6 games he left with a lead, 3 of 6 they were trailing.

The biggest difference I see is in 2022 there were no good options and the pen wasn't deep. This year Ryu took over Manoah's slot and the rest of the rotation was doing well and the pen is very deep (Jackson going down despite a 183 ERA+ in 26 2/3 IP shows that). Worst ERA's among active relievers (relief pitching only) goes to Richards & Garcia (4.31 and 4.32). Green is at 6.75 but only 4 IP so far and he was called up well after Manoah had his meltdown.

Could the Jays have stayed with a 6 man rotation? Sure. But with how Manoah was 50-50 on getting through 5 innings it didn't make sense. Dumb thing is if he just accepted it and went down he might be back up now and pitching tonight (6th day in a row of games), then used again for 2 more starts if effective. Instead he looks like a child and isn't getting any more ML experience until he grows up a bit. Not swift on his part, or on his agents part (who might have pushed him to do this). I think his agent is found here and isn't a name I recognize from anything baseball related. Which might explain the poor choice made this year by him.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#436633) #
Schneider is not up over 100pa.

Best 100pa+ seasons by wRC+:

* 1. M.Suttles 1927: 116pa, 269wrc+
* 2. T.Williams 1953: 110pa, 255wrc+
* 3. D.Schneider 2023: 102pa, 251wrc+
* 3. J.Gibson 1943: 302pa, 251wrc+
* 5. O.Charleston 1921: 330pa, 249wrc+
uglyone - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#436634) #
ach. that should say "now" instead of "not".
uglyone - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#436635) #
of course, we could just keep it at minimum 50pa and the only other name that squeezes ahead of Schneider is Bob Boyd with a 264wrc+ in 59pa in 1948.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#436636) #
In 1920, Babe Ruth completed his transition to everyday player with the Yankees. In 614 PAs, he hit .376/.532/.847 for an OPS+ of 255. 1/6 down, 5/6 to go.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#436639) #
Random threads pop up on the Hot Topics sidebar. Late in the Cleveland comes to town thread (starting #286338) was a discussion of the great Juan Francisco. Had a great April/May 2014. Was it real? Even Dave Cameron, before he left FG for the Padres, was asked!

Thought it juxtaposes well with all the Schneider talk.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#436640) #
Thanks, hypobole. For fun. I checked how Francisco did during that magical period. Well enough, but nothing like Schneider. He peaked at about .280/.380/.600. It was much better than he had previously been and the question was whether he had taken a step forward like Bautista. He did not have Schneider's plate control in the least.

With Schneider, there's a bit of the signature significance that Bill James wrote about in relation to the 1984 Tigers going 13-0 to start the season. The chance of a bad team doing this is so small in relation to a good team that we could infer that the Tigers were very likely a good team. Bad players don't hit like 1920 Babe Ruth for a month. Which is why ZiPS now projects Schneider as a 117 wRC+ hitter for the rest of the season. Obviously there's a range around this number, but it is centered considerably above average.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#436641) #
Juan Francisco memories are dim. All I can recall are him flailing away at 2 strike sliders. And after that hot stretch he crashed back to earth as the season, which proved to be his last in the majors, wore on.

I used juxtaposed in comparing him to Schneider, because although they both had a torrid stretch, Schneider's seems to be sustainable, just not nearly a good as it is now. That's why I'm taking the over on all the prognostications on him.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#436642) #
during a pennant race the Jays kept Kikuchi in the rotation

Kikuchi wasn't bad from the jump last year - he went bad along the way. Through the end of May 2022, he was 2-1, 3.48 and had been pitching very well. But then came his hideous (0-3, 7.17) month of June. He only got two starts in July and went to the pen in mid-August.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#436643) #
Subjectively, I would take the over on the ZiPS projection too. That's a function of my take on how his various batting skills interact. The strike zone judgment with respect particularly to pitches outside is exquisite and complements beautifully his power on pitches middle in. His short stature is an asset as well. A pitcher who can consistently hit the low outside corner will get him out the great majority of the time, but that's about it.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#436644) #
Tonight, Yusei Kikuchi re-asserts his title of staff ace.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#436645) #
Pitchers are still trying different things with Schneider. They first tried a steady diet of high FBs. He adapted to that. Next was a heavier dose of breaking balls away. He mostly adapted to that. In the past week they have moved to changing speeds on breaking balls and pitching him backwards (and that has led to more K's over the past 4-5 games). I'm optimistic about his ability to adapt because of the strike zone control. His ability to adapt to high FBs and SLs away is predicated on largely avoiding hacking at pitches out of the strike zone. I'm confident that the excellent (maybe even elite) strike zone control is real - for me, the ability to beat those projections hinges on how much power there is when the dust settles. It definitely looks promising.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#436646) #
I'm wondering - did Schneider always wear glasses in the minors? Or is that a more recent thing. I remember a few players over the years gave in and put on glasses and found they suddenly could hit better because they could see the little things better (the ball, the grip the pitcher is using quicker and better, etc.). One wonders if some other Jays could use an eye exam - they probably have perfectly good sight for an average person, but to fully identify pitches as they come out of a pitchers hand you need insanely good eyesight. Wouldn't hurt guys like Vlad to have them checked. 20-20 vision is nice but Ted Williams had 20-10 vision (could see things 20 feet away that a 20-20 would see at 10 feet) which gave him a massive advantage.

Hmm... did a quick google image check and found pictures of Schneider in A ball without glasses while playing in Vancouver. You can see it on his BR page. 231/348/476 is what he hit there at the time of the photo. It looks like by the time he was in AA he was wearing them and hitting 283/368/476 - same Slg%, but avg jumped. He moved up to AAA and hit 268/411/529 last year and this combined before exploding in the majors.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#436647) #
His short stature is a boon and a bane. His strike zone is smaller and his short levers help his bat speed. But they also make it difficult to cover the outer edge of the plate. Saw the KC pitchers attacking him there.

I can see why Law and Longo aren't impressed. His EV/ Max EV is nothing special. And he's a strike machine, mostly taking but above average swinging as well.

However he's keeping the ball off the ground, as he did in the minors. That is huge. When he does make contact, it's often good contact.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#436648) #
He wasn't wearing glasses for the 2019 baseball card from Bluefield.  He didn't have a mustache either.  Glasses for strike zone judgment; mustache for power. 
hypobole - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#436649) #
John,I know eyes are checked every spring training. Beyond that, I have no clue.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#436650) #
His EV is creeping up to 90, and the power is all about the pulled fly balls. It's too bad that we don't have historical EVs, but his power profile is not unique in baseball history.  His stance is more open than it was in Buffalo, which allows him to get to the pitches in and which does make him vulnerable particularly to the pitch down and away.   
hypobole - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#436651) #
And it's odd there is almost nothing I could find on this. One fact though. Lots of players have 20/12 or better eyesight. Ted Williams was 20/10. Your standard ophthalmologists chart only goes to 20/15.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#436652) #
Based on a radio interview I heard the other day, Schneider seems to think about hitting in a very level-headed, analytical, intelligent way. My sense is that one of his strengths as a hitter is the mental aspect of the game.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#436653) #
EVs are EVs and all but eye test tells me the ball jumps off his bat. Even balls he seems not to get all of go flying over the fence.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#436654) #
Here's Mike Petriello on Schneider.  It's a good summary. 
hypobole - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#436655) #
I think Schneider may be the anti-Vlad. Vlad's fly balls don't go as far as their EV's suggest they should, because they have a lot of topspin, whereas Schneider's probably have the backspin to carry them further.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#436656) #
That is a good summary, Mike.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#436657) #
funny enough one of the most encouraging Schneider stats i've seen so far in this tiny unreliable sample is that all the defensive metrics think he can play 2B so far.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#436658) #
Scherzer is out for the rest of the regular season, and maybe also the playoffs, with a strain of his teres major muscle.

Can the Jays get any more lucky with their rivals suffering injury issues? Texas is now down Jung, Garcia, Scherzer, deGrom, Odorizzi. The Yankees, Rays and Astros have been hit hard this season as well.

If the Jays canít capitalize and make the postseason, it will have been a significant collective failure on their part.
92-93 - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#436660) #
He can play it, just not well. Which is fine if he continues with this patience/power approach.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#436661) #
The Jays have had recent injuries to Bichette Chapman Jansen Belt KK Swanson and of course Manoah imploded.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#436662) #
Iím sticking to my guns on Schneiderís defense. I donít think you want him as a full time regular infielder unless his bat is so good that it will carry him. I am encouraged from some of the AAA reports that LF at something approaching league average is possible.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#436663) #
The Jays have been mostly healthy throughout the season, and one SP down is nothing compared to what the Rays and Yankees and other teams have gone through.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#436664) #
It will be incredibly annoying if the year end press conference involves blaming health for the Jays performance this year.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#436665) #
Someone recently noted the Jays hittersí frequently ďnon-competitiveĒ at-bats. That might be the pithiest explanation for the teamís failure to launch this season.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#436666) #
I dunno what mostly healthy has been. Jays have had plenty of injuries.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#436668) #
I've liked what I have seen of Schneider's defence, save for the tagging issue.

A coda to the Petriello article.  The player with the second hottest start to his career is Mandy Brooks, a centerfielder for the Cubs in 1925-26.  I wondered what happened with him.  Here's what I could glean from BR.  Mandy Brooks (born John Brozek)  was called up on May 30, 1925 at age 27.  He was born in Milwaukee and died in Fort Atkinson, Wisconsin.  His first game on May 30 was the second game of a doubleheader in Cincinnati and he went 0-4.  The Cubs then returned home from May 31 to June 23 (!).  They played 22 games and scored 139 runs, or about 6.25 runs per game.  Brooks reached his peak OPS on June 23 at .385/.410/.833 after a bunch of singles, 8 doubles, 4 triples and 8 home runs during the 22 games at home.   For the season, Brooks hit .314/.357/.581 at home and .217/.254/.383 on the road.  The next year, the Cubs had Hack Wilson in centerfield and Brooks got all of 57 PAs and he was out of baseball. 

I checked the average highs for Chicago from May 31- June 23, 1925..  Here's what they were: 92, 92, 84, 86, 95, 96, 88, 78, 89, 84, 59, 73, 91, 84, 85, 86, 76, 90, 77, 85, 89, 84, 80 and 68.  All day games in Wrigley.  Hot weather.  Anyways, Schneider's situation is nothing like Brooks'. 


Magpie - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#436669) #
Mandy Brooks played 116 games in the majors almost one hundred years ago. He's been dead for almost 50 years. He's been completely forgotten by everyone outside his own family.

And Davis Schneider has brought him back. That's so cool.
Michael - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#436673) #
The Jays have been healthy this year (by normal standards). In terms of days lost to the DL the Jays are #2 in the fewest. They've lost 784 player-days so far. Best team is Cleveland with 649. 3rd best is Baltimore with 811. The average team has about 1,320 days lost so far. The Dodgers have 2,063 as the most lost.

Not every day lost is equally valuable since a star lost is worse than a fringe guy lost. If you track by $ lost to the IL the Jays are in the exact middle of the pack with $22.18 M lost, which is the 15h fewest/16th most. The mean team has lost $28.69 since the top teams lose more. Cleveland is best in least lost again with $8.82M lost, Baltimore is #2 with $10.48M lost. Yankees are at $76.2M #1, Angels at #2 with $55.97M.

Dollars isn't totally best since some teams have large payrolls and underpaid controlled players might be more important than overpaid free agents or people on the end of long term deals that were better earlier in the deal, but still however you slice it the Jays have generally benefitted from good health (as have Baltimore).

You can see data at https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/injured-list/cumulative-team/
John Northey - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#436701) #
Anyone else getting the feeling Green's options will be declined by the Jays once the year is done? I just don't see why they'd keep him unless he shows a LOT more in the next 2 weeks.
christaylor - Wednesday, September 13 2023 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#436705) #
I was just browsing the schedule looking for the high points for this team.

Four series wins seem promising Tampa in April, Atlanta in May, Houston in June, and the Dodgers in July all give me vague memories of decent play, but I don't remember any of those series as being convincing in that the Jays showed themselves to be the more talented team in the field.

I saw all the games here in Boston and August and they looked convincingly like the better team, but just barely. What a season. I'll ride it out and hope the narrative changes with a squeak in to the playoffs and a miraculous run.

But, even if that happens I hope the FO sees a the need to take a swing in the offseason and make a big changes or at least take a step back and play the kids those up and Barger, Tiedmann and Orelvis Martinez. Let the kids play a few months of 2024 and see whether they can position themselves at the deadline to bring in contributor or two for the second half of 2024 and 2025.

I want this team to look better but over and over again it has just face planted during important series.

John Northey - Thursday, September 14 2023 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#436712) #
The problem is this has been the Eddie Murray of teams - never the best, never the worst, just steady day in day out. His OPS+ from age 21-32 ranged from 120-157, 17-32 HR, never enough for an MVP but 5 times in the top 5.

Jays this year never won more than 6 straight, never lost more than 5 straight. 34 comeback wins vs 32 blown leads resulting in losses. Biggest comeback 6 runs, biggest blown 6 runs.
Kelekin - Thursday, September 14 2023 @ 05:46 AM EDT (#436714) #
At first I read that as Eddie Murphy. Of which it is safe to say this team is certainly not as good as Beverly Hills Cop, nor is it as bad as Norbit. Perhaps the team is solidly in the Bowfinger range.
Glevin - Friday, September 15 2023 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#436834) #
"But, even if that happens I hope the FO sees a the need to take a swing in the offseason and make a big change"

I don't really see what they can do. There aren't any big name free agents available except Ohtani and he certainly wants west coast. The team does not have a lot of guys with trade value. Bichette would be #1 but he's their best player so trading him gets you what exactly? They are in the position they are in because the players they reasonably thought were going to be elite, are mediocre. The team's pitching and D will be excellent but they just don't have good enough hitting. I mean, personally, I'd be trading Romano/other bullpen guys if it would get me a bat, but not sure it does.
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