"Vladdy turning from Miggy Cabrera into Josh Bell is by far the biggest. It's just so baffling how someone who looked so completely dominant at 22 now looks like a replacement level player at 24."

Yup...I've been pointing to his 2021 being an outlier for a while.

"Anthopoulos has been trading for bona fide stars, like Olson (6 WAR) and Murphy (4.4 WAR). Can we do that too?"

No kidding... Those seem like easy moves to make and this front office needs to be held accountable for not making them. I blame the core which they've been too faithful to as the reason.


What I've learned:

Atkins put too much faith in Vlad to carry the team which likely prevented him from acquiring someone like Olson. He lacked the motivation to do so probably because he didn't want to deal with moving Vlad off first base. Babying. Imagine if he traded pieces this offseason to acquire Pete Alonso. That would likely backfire with Vlad...but at this point who cares.

Moving Teoscar was a mistake and Atkins likely could have received more had he waited longer than the first day of the off season to make the trade. A power hitter is always more valuable than a reliever.

John Schneider is not any better than Montoyo who "lost the room," partly because he called his players out publicly which Schneider refuses to do.

Vladdy is a complicated player who can't make simple adjustments for whatever reason

Alek Manoah is terrible for bailing on this team

Yusei Kikuchi is a gamer and good teammate

Bo Bichette is a gamer and good teammate

Biggest lesson learned as a fan this year? This management sucks at communication with its players and fans. I've never felt negatively towars this front office until late this year, ever.

I did not read this before commenting in the other thread about the "pound of flesh". 

In terms of offense, the Jays are T11th in MLB in OPS. These are the teams ahead of them (in order): Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, Rays, Phillies, Astros, Red Sox, Orioles, Cardinals, Angels. Tied with the Jays currently are Cubs and Twins.

In terms of pitching, the Jays are 3rd in MLB in ERA. Ahead of them are Mariners and Rays.

So only the Rays are better than the Jays on both sides of the ball this season. I'd still rather have the Jays have the "Barrio" jacket offensive explosion (they were 3rd last year in MLB team OPS, 4th in R) than the more serious gritty offense of this year, but there was an intentional offense for defense trade and 11th is still decent for team OPS (even if it is only 16th in R).

With the payroll increases in recent years, the Jays seem to have seriously contemplated some very bold moves—Cole, Seager, Freeman. But I think the front office always pulls back in the end. That magnitude of transaction really just isn’t in their DNA. Their approach is defensible, but it sure would be nice to have Seager or Freeman on the team this year.

A massive series against the Boston Red Stockings.

What could possibly go wrong?

I’m taking this series off. Going to survey the landscape on Sunday night.

"Atkins put too much faith in Vlad to carry the team which likely prevented him from acquiring someone like Olson. He lacked the motivation to do so probably because he didn't want to deal with moving Vlad off first base. Babying. Imagine if he traded pieces this offseason to acquire Pete Alonso. That would likely backfire with Vlad...but at this point who cares."

Matt Olsen was traded in the spring of 2022. Vladdy was coming off a 6.7 WAR season. That would have been a perfect time for that trade.

And why were the Mets trading Alonso again?

And why would the Jays be moving a guy who just won the Gold Glove off first base?

Vlad has not been good, but no one saw him dropping off this much. There is a pretty good chance he improves with a better approach next year. In fact, he might have just struggled for the first time in his baseball life. He might be better for it.

If he does improve I am sure you will be here to let us know you called it.

John Belushi's chocolate donuts!

Moving Teoscar was a mistake and Atkins likely could have received more had he waited longer than the first day of the off season to make the trade. A power hitter is always more valuable than a reliever.

There is a lot more to that trade than you just gave credit for.

1) They didn't only trade Hernandez for "a reliever". They also got back Adam Macko, a high-upside prospect in that deal. Macko was crap to start this season but has been unhittable for about a month now. That's a prudent add for a team that was trading a lot of prospects in recent years.

2) Hernandez makes $14 mill this year, and Swanson makes $1.25 mill. The dollar savings there entirely paid for Kiermier, who alone has actually been worth more than Teoscar this season. For $18.3 mill they got 4.2 fWAR out of Kiermier and Belt. Teoscar has been worth 2.0 fWAR at $14 mill.

3) It has taken an absolutely torrid pace by Teoscar wherein he was hitting for 180+ wRC+ just to get to 111 wRC+ this season. It is a little convenient to ignore that for 3/4ths of this season he was basically a 100 wRC+ hitter. So they absolutely made the correct call to trade him, because his overall season is a regression. Hernandez was crap for the Mariners until they went on their little run of dominance, let's see how he closes because the last two series he's become conscious again.

Neither the loss of Hernandez nor Gurriel are why this team has been a clown show offensively for most of the season. These are weak deflections that would be moot if guys like Guerrero, Kirk, Springer, etc. didn't all decide to collectively crap their pants at the same time. Again, Teoscar is a 111 wRC+ hitter over this full season - basically the same as Kiermier. His "power" isn't magically fixing this team's problems.

The Teoscar trade was great. He has a 111 WRC+ and is a pending free agent making $14M. Swanson is legit reliever who isnt a free agent until 2026 and Macko looks like an interesting prospect. The front offices moves have mostly been good. Kiermier, Belt, Swanson and Bassit have all been solid. The issue has been with the talent that was already here massively underperforming. And trading Vladdy looks great in hindsight but how can you look at 22 year old being a completely dominant player and think "to win, we need to trade this guy"?

I wouldn't do that trade again (Teoscar). I would have traded for Macko and Swanson using other players. Teo is the type of player this roster is missing. I liked the acquisition and even the trade of Teo at the time, but in hindsight it has hurt this team this year much more than I had thought it could have and it is an observation I have had of takeaways this year.

DUCEY, you seem confused and it would be beneficial if you could get a clue.. I don't have a track record of claiming to say things I haven't, but if I did I am sure you wouldn't be here to read it, seeing how most of your posts read like a poster that read one post but not an entire thread or discussion. If you had been reading then you would've known Pete Alonso was discussed. You'd also know that Vlad's defense and overall value has been discussed over and over. If you really need to ask why a replacement level player with terrible defense would be moved off first base then perhaps ... ah never mind ... just keep calling out posters without having full context. It's a good look.

I'll put you down as "undecided" in the "Vlad can still be an MVP 6+ WAR player" camp.

Springer had to move, he wasn't a CF any more. Can only have 1 RF. Could have shuffled Springer/Teo to a position they don't play as well. but that was another factor in the trade.

You can look at each move in isolation and be okay with them, but that doesn't change the fact that they chose to roll with 2 CFs and an old, injury-prone DH. It was not hard to predict that this team would struggle offensively, and in fact a few of us did just that.

This feels like a repeat of a thread from before the season that we had where 92-93 and I were making the same point. There was a lot to like individually about the offseason moves (I had been hoping for some additional emphasis on run prevention and outfield defence for a while) but in totality they didn't make sense. Having signed KK and done the Tesocar deal why would you make the Varsho deal? If you had done the Varsho deal first you likely wouldn't have signed KK and probably wouldn't have dumped both of your bat first RH corner OF's. None of that was the reason the season has gone the way it has but it was another log on the pile for a struggling offence.

The i told you so's are cute and all but yeah no you can't say you predicted half the starting lineup - mostly young guys - to fall off a cliff offensively.

General Douglas MacArthur played baseball for West Point in 1901.

Also, that WAR calculation is kinda silly. Nearly all of Varsho's fWAR has come from CF, so if they don't acquire Kiermaier he has a 4 fWAR season out there and the Jays get better production from LF/CF with Teo/Varsho than they have this season. That leaves enough money to sign Belt, and if they really couldn't afford the 5MM difference they didn't need to bring back Cimber and Bass or sign Green. Merryweather, whom they let go for nothing, has been as good as Swanson this season.

RBIs matter a lot, and despite all those Ks and a 112 wRC+ Hernandez has 88 of them. Teoscar is hitting .309/.341/.474 with RISP this season, and that's actually a big drop from his career line.

Well, Teoscar and Gurriel are about 2.0 WAR guys. Both have massive ups and massive downs and both are nightmares on defense who have some 'wow' plays to give you hope. Clearing both out with 1 year of control left made a ton of sense. Varsho should've been a LOT better with the bat, as should've Vlad, as should've Kirk. If those 3 produced like in 2022 this team would be sailing into the playoffs I suspect. Given all are well under 30 that was not an unreasonable expectation.

Vlad is now 18 OPS+ below his career, Varsho 16 points, Kirk 20 points. Heck, Springer is 14 below his career but at 33 that isn't unexpected, not nice, but not an oddity. Vlad & Kirk at 24 and Varsho at 26 doing that is unusual and unexpected. Chapman started strong but now is 7 below, even Bo is now 3 below, Merrifield 6 below, Biggio 5 below (quite the comeback from April/May), Espinal 18 below. Really the only guys hitting better than expected is KK at 11 points above his career and Belt 7 above and Jansen 12 above.

So 3 guys overperforming, 9 under or which 5 are grossly under (10+ points below normal). Anyone who predicted that, and Manoah going in the crapper compeletly, and still thought the Jays would be 1 1/2 out of the playoffs in mid-September would've been seen as nuts.

It's worth noting that Swanson has been one of the best relievers on the team this year. He's pitched 60 innings (more than every bullpen arm except Richards) and his stats are strong across the board. If you factor in his very low salary and his four years of control, he's a valuable player.

If Varsho had hit around his 2021-2022 level, the team would have been thrilled to have such an excellent left fielder. Unfortunately he has been an awful hitter (79 wRC+).

Teo would have been an acceptable bat in LF but there are a lot of plays Varsho made in the field that Teo would not have made. The Teo departure narrative is peripheral to what has happened to the Jays this season.

Dalimon…wow. That was a pretty unhinged response to what was an entirely reasonable post I Ducey. Take a breath. We’re all upset about the team. We’re all disappointed. Let’s not take it out on each other. There seem to be fewer of us here than there used to be, so why don’t we do what we can to keep each other around instead of trying to push each other away.

My point was simply that I have learned that RBI and power in the line up is crucial. I did not feel this way in the off season when I celebrated the Teoscar trade.

I dunno, he came on here and intimated that I make some bold predictions and brag about them (whichever way they turn out). I've never aggravated a poster for an argument or criticism but if he's gonna imply something and I dont agree I'm gonna let him know because it really wasn't necessary for him to do so after making his point. I guess I just don't like being dismissed like that. I hope nobody is offended.

Don't confuse a measure with process. I have come around to thinking RBI meaningful too but crucial seems a stretch as they ignore context. Springer's RBI totals for example a low because he leads off so much.

That said, take back the Two trade, sign Turner instead of belt, and the Jays are better off. That there are better choices does not invalidate the good work the FO did this past off-season and that there was recognizable gestalt to the plan even if it kinda sucked at one level (breaking up the barrio).

"This is mostly a chunk of flesh thrown out to appease the angry mob."

hee hee

Tip of the cap to the immortal Roberto Clemente.

How is it possible that Texas wipes the floor with the Jays and then goes over to Cleveland and falls behind the Guardians 6-0?

I would have gone another inning with Berrios. 

Now 9-0 in Cleveland.

youneverknow -- the best word in baseball

I’m actually watching the Guardians game and the main reason is Giolito or, more precisely, Giolito’s CH. He’s got a peak Doyle Alexander or Shawn Marcum CH tonight. He could tell the batter it’s coming and they still couldn’t hit it. Filthy CH.

Hmm... maybe we won't run Vlad out of town after all :)

Berrios sure has come back this year from last years disaster, maybe some of the guys having off years this year will come back next year.

OK, I am an optimist at heart, no idea how others survive not being that. Texas losing 12-0 right now to a sub-500 team, who do they think they are calling themselves playoff contenders when they can't beat up on easy teams like that? Tampa pounding Baltimore 7-1 so they'll move into a tie for 1st. Seattle plays the Dodgers at 10 tonight. Houston losing to the pathetic KC Royals 2-0 right now. Feels like a snail race right now for the last wild card and NL West title. I feel confident a 10-5 finish (9-5 after today) will get the Jays in.

ugh long day - 2 wild cards, not 1 they are playing for.

Are they teasing us again? Are we going to fall for it again?

Why not.

More fun to keep hope alive than to go back to the 1994-2014 era of no hope. Technically the Jays still have a shot at winning the division, tragic number at 5 now. Under the old 1 WC style their odds would be extremely low too, 10 back of Tampa. In the 2 WC style we had for a bit the Jays would need to beat 2 of the 3 west teams, still very possible although we'd rather they get the 3rd WC obviously.

I've been resigned since probably early to mid August that this is going right down to the last weekend. Maybe the last day. It'll be a grind right to the end.

So basically like a basketball game - nothing matters until the last 2 minutes. Or in this case the last 2 games. Everything else is to get there.

Is that Nancy holding that football?

P.s. we are 100% winning it all this year.

Nancy Spungen holding the football would be a very different game from Lucy Van Pelt.

Oops

Perfect night - Mariners, Astros, Rangers all lose while the Jays win. 1/2 a game back of Seattle, 1 1/2 back of Texas, 2 behind Houston. Not dead yet! FYI: Teoscar struck out as the tying run at the plate to end Seattle's game.

Clutch performances from Berrios especially and Vlad. 5th time this year Vlad has homered in consecutive games, last time was July 22/23 in Seattle.

Vlad has never homered 3 games in a row at the RC. He's done it 3 times, all in 2021. Once in Buffalo and once in Dunedin. His best stretch was homering in each game of a 4 game set in Fenway.

One little hot streak from vlad gets us comfortably in the playoffs.

Francis optioned for Pearson. Trevor Richards definitely could use some kind of a break, but he remains.

There's a consistent theme that performance matters little. I don't have much interest in this club, and am definitely ready for new management.

Couldn't agree more Mike.

I was listening to the Walkoff Podcast and they revealed some startling numbers for Vlad and Varsho. On the road their OPS was good. At home their OPS was absolutely horrendous. PErhaps Rogers Centre has negatively impacted these two.

Vladdy on the road: .292/.363/.488 - 851 OPS

Vladdy at home: .236/.316/.384 - 700 OPS

Baltimore has lost 4 in a row. Texas is the highest scoring team in the AL. They scored 35 runs against the Jays in the 4 game series. So our pitching could not contain them.

Manoah is the biggest factor harming the Jays.

Due to the changes at the RC OF defense improved at the cost of O. The FO have to figure out what personnel will be best for next year. Did the Jays miscalculate? Atkins got the defense 1st OFs. Bassitt improved the rotation. Swanson improved the pen but it was not enough so add Hicks and Cabrera.

The Jays overspent but fortunately they are in the playoff race so fan interest is strong which means good revenue.

This year the Jays did not overperform. Maybe they underperformed. Houston & NYY definitely underperformed. TB & Baltimore Definitely overperformed. Maybe Texas too who is buying a strong team. Seattle and the Jays I am unsure.

Atkins probably changes the team for 2024. Ryu and a few relievers are FA as are some position players. The question of finances will loom large. $50 mil off the books. How much of that will be spent and how? 2024's goal will still be to compete for a playoff spot so that revenue is strong.

Personally I wonder if more SBs is the way to go. KK & Merrifield are FAs so we lose SBs.

Vladimir needs 11 RBI in the remaining 14 games to reach 100.

Vladdy's home and away splits are consistent with him trying too hard at home.

That's his biggest problem- trying to hit pitches that he cant do damage on instead of being patient and letting the pitchers come to him.

Maybe they could give that Horwitz kid a chance more often at home.

Nothing to do with the Jays. Ohtani's locker has been cleared out which seems to suggest he ain't returning this season. A 50-HR, 100-RBI, 20-SB, 10-win season would have been nice but hardly a prerequisite for another MVP award. I imagine a few voters will twist themselves sideways to vote for someone else.

The 9nly, and I mean only, argument for anyone but Ohtani as MVP is playing for a contender. By bWAR he has 10.0, no one else over 7. fWAR has him at 9.0, next has 6.3 So either a 2+ or 3+ WAR lead. WAR isn't everything but a lead that big is crazy stuff. His hitting alone would put him in a tight race for 1st, but mix in pitching and it is a blow out.

Nice that the Jays won last night but they did manage only 4 hits and a walk, and it was only an excellently pitched game that saved them.

You can also expect Red Sox hitters to be more rested after playing a double-header and travelling the previous day...

Alex Verdugo is all hat and no cattle.

Good thing Bassit seems to be having a good day, because it seems like the Jays hitters are trying to keep the fans cool with all their whiffing

Should've been fan the fans or something. Good thing nobody pays me to write.

How many plays has Merrifield missed that Varsho would have made this week?  A couple of catches and perhaps a throw.  There's a huge difference between the two of them out there. 

Man this lineup is anemic. What could the Jays do to strengthen that for the last 4 series?

Merrifield played that one very poorly- there's no way that should have been Kiermaier's ball.  The result may or may not have been the same if he made any reasonable kind of stab at it. 

Kiermaier made a great play. Guess Schneider has to play the best combination of defence with offence. Would Varsho be better at the plate than Merrifield?

Varsho would be better than Merrifield against all types of pitching.  Merrifield was hot at the start of the year and out-hit his xwOBA for a while but no longer.  He's a decent second baseman, but not as valuable as Schneider overall.  The best role for him is pinch-running for Kirk. 

Last 30 games:
Merrifield: .215 .236 .289
Varsho: .233 .330 .400

And that's what I was talking about for Vladdy - looked almost like a check-swing home run. He was way more power than he needs to hit it out. No need to swing for 500 ft every pitch..

Wait, is no one going to complain that Vladdy swung at a pitch out of the zone?

Last 30 games.
Matt Chapman: .183 .280 .288

i like the move to clement.

<br>Last 30 games.
Matt Chapman: .183 .280 .288

Not even the immortal Schneider has avoided this.
Last 15 games 3/24 .484 ops
Last 30 games 10/48 .856 ops the walks and power have been helping him stay productive, but first real slump. Is it pressure? Bad luck? An adjustment?
Either way this will be a good learning experience for everyone. Hope Schneider understands any adjustments and can make his own, there's only so much you can do with bad calls by umps, and that thr luck evens out.

Adapting to changes seems to be a problem; not just for the hitters but also for the manager.

Last 7 games.
Springer: .160 .222 .160

Ugh. Base baserunning again.

Did our manager really just let Espinal hit against a righty in the biggest at bat of the game?

Yeah, I was really surprised to not see Biggio there.

Not on the ball!

<br>Did our manager really just let Espinal hit against a righty in the biggest at bat of the game?


Gotta keep that bullet in case they need it in extra innings

I retract the surprise part, once I remembered that this is not the first time Espinal has been left in the game to hit in situations where he should be removed.

Well, at least Vladdy is hitting again (small sample size).

I'm good with Horwitz hitting for Chapman, but not expecting it to happen.

fine. biggio then.

Good job Cavan. Nice to see one of our most consistent hitters get a hit. If only he was used in the 8th.

So many bad calls. Kirk shoulda struck out ages ago.

horwitz for varsho.

or just let varsho hot works.

lol red sox

Do not begrudge Schneider swinging at a middle- middle pitch at no1. Too bad the result wasn't better.

if our manager lucks out somehow letting both espinal and merrifield hit again here that'd be hilarious.

Terrible at bat from Merrifield though

i really gave him the benefit of the doubt that hitting espinal and merrifield in the 5th and 6th slots was all about his willingness to aggressively use platoons.

i'm such a sucker.

How could another outcome have been expected. That was inevitable.

Playing your weaker cards. Why?

Bad luck for Merrifield there..

Yah! He’s had a bad one.

Guerrero is having another very good game.

And a terrible blwon strike call. Will be so mad if this leads to a run

so Espinal and Merrifield are due up again this inning.

Maybe a multi inning reliver is a good thing, nut oops too bad, w re sent an email effective one down

This team can be so... unintelligent.

Spoke too soon. Just not smart.

lmao what a game winning hit.

manager is so, so damn lucky.

Somehow, someway, they win this ball game. No points for style. Well said!

The juggernaut cannot be contained.

Well earned win:(. This is the worst base running version of the Jays ever. By quite a wide margin.

Two positives for the day. Bassitt was outstanding and that’s the best stuff Green has had since he came back.

This might be the most undeserved win in baseball history.

Riddle me this - in the 10th, 11th and 13th innings, the Manfred Man is on 2nd, and no effort to bunt. I suppose they don't want Bichette to bunt, and Biggio previously proved uncapable of bunting, but I'd still have had Kirk bunting in the 11th, and Schneider bunting in the 13th.

the best thing right now is that vladdy seems like he might just be warming up a bit. i think my favorite thing was seeing him smile and nod his head at that first pitch fastball strike in the late innings.

so Espinal and Merrifield are due up again this inning.

With Heineman and Horwitz on the bench. I dunno - can Horwitz play the outfield?

Horwitz to 1b

Vlad to 3b

Espinal/Merrifield to 2b

Biggio to lf

Please Vladdy, be great again! No idea how the Jays won that game, but hopefully, it's a turning point.

"This might be the most undeserved win in baseball history."

Yes ... a day of infamy. Somehow they scored more runs than the other team while not following the instructions from the remote experts at battersbox. But it happened! Sept. 16th, 2023. Never forget!

If the player subs include Vlad to 3B that is a losing hand to play. I suspect they gave him reps in practice at 3B when Chapman down to see that is is the case.

Texas lose again! Weirdness abounds.

Well, the Jays sure don't make it easy on those of us with high blood pressure do they? Seemed so appropriate that the first hit of the game (Red Sox) was a cheap infield single that went 20-30 feet, and the final hit (Jays) was identical.

I really don't get Schneiders addiction to Merrifield. It is like his addiction to Tapia last year - neither could field well in LF, wRC+ of 96 and 91. Both had speed. Sigh. The GM needs to avoid giving the manager pieces to use that he'll use at inappropriate times. Yeah, Merrifield had the winning hit but it was more a 'oops' than a solid hit. Guess on the plus side Merrifield was good for a stretch when the Jays really needed him to be (Springer was really doing poorly and it made it easier to shuffle him down for a bit).

Generally 2.0 WAR is seen as acceptable for an everyday player - FanGraphs right now has 8 Jays at that level with just Chapman & Bo at 3+ (Chapman dropping fast though). Schneider and Kiermaier are just above 2.0 while 2.0 on the dot has Merrifield, Belt, Springer, and Jansen. 1.5 for Varsho, 1.4 for Kirk, with sub 1 and over 0.49 being Clement, Vlad, and Biggio. 0.2 to -0.1 cover all others who came to bat outside of DeJong at -0.9 (boy that was a flop of a trade - I admit it made sense to me at the time, but boy did it not work at all as hoped, he has done better for SF but that was a super low bar: 28 wRC+ is nothing to brag about).

Tomorrow the Jays go for the sweep while the Rangers try to avoid being swept by Cleveland. Houston trying to avoid being swept by KC (!!), Seattle still scoreless vs the Dodgers tonight.

Boy this is a crazy race isn't it? For the WC race the Jays are tied with the Mariners depending how their game goes, 1/2 a game back of the Rangers, 1 back of Houston. You'd think none of those west teams want to make the playoffs the way they are playing this weekend.

The Dodgers and Seattle proceed to extra-innings in a scoreless game.

Dodgers win.

Yep, another perfect night for Blue Jays baseball - Jays win, the 3 teams they are chasing all lost. Jays now in the 3rd wild card position again, 1/2 a game ahead of Seattle, 1/2 a game back of Texas for WC #2, 1 game back of Houston to have the extra protection of being ahead of all 3. Who'd have thunk it?

And for extra inspiration - the Vancouver Canadians won their championship tonight 10-2. Fun game to watch, it was free on milb.com and if you go there you might be able to watch a replay of it.

"Ain't seen this Vladdy since I don't know when"

He hits home runs! He plays plus defence!

Two things came to mind. #1 - Mentioned earlier Vlad had never hit HR's 3 games in a row at the RC. Cross that off the bucket list.

#2 - Even better was today's HR. Had an exit velocity of 98.3. That's Espinal territory. Only went 367 ft. But as the FG article I posted earlier pointed out, if you pull fly balls, a lot of them end up as HR's. People love the all fields approach. And it's best for some, but not for Vlad. Get the ball in the air and pull it Vladdy.

Playoffs odds are basically the same as they were before Texas came to town.

Houston hasn't won either and the division is still up for grab.
We're left feeling like finishing second in the wild card race and playing Tampa wouldn't be so bad.
Which is of course ludicrous.

Btw, the Red Sox have fired Bloom which is the equivalent of the Jays showing AA the door after the 2013 last place finish. Bloom was brought over to deal Mookie Betts. AA had to deal Roy Halladay. They still have Verdugo and Connor Wong on the team.

A week ago, Davis Schneider was peak Bonds, with an OPS north of 1200. A little slump now has him merely as 2023 Ohtani.

Schneider: 306/429/673
Ohtani: 304/412/654

Now, can he pitch?

"He hits home runs! He plays plus defence!"

Unfortunately he and his teammates still regularly run like Benny Hill

Another nail biter delivered by our Jays.

This team looks so much better when Vladdy is firing. As NBA Jam says, "He's heating up."

The AL WC is looking like a "you can have it,I don't want it' race - I guess not unexpected given how flawed the teams are.

10 wins & 3 losses in the final 13 should do it. Here's hoping for 92 wins.

Anyone care to give a brief summary on why the 3 teams Toronto is chasing are flawed?

I know they've all been losing a lot, but haven't paid much attention to why, especially Seattle and Houston.

Despite the Rangers looking vulnerable as well, it was hard to assess any flaws during their time in Toronto as they pummeled the listless Jays. Minus losing Scherzer.

Marcus Semien looks like a destroyer of worlds again.

Texas - no major flaws just not the best pitching

Houston - Verlander is not dominant and Alvarez is an injury risk

Seattle - their line up is extremely streaky and much of its success surrounds one player, j-rod

Even the two AL East leaders have plenty of flaws.

And i'll still say on paper the jays have fewer flaws than any of them.

Great question pooks137. Very good analysis by dalimon5 and UO. The record says TB & Baltimore are in and there will be 1 loser in the other group. The playoffs is a brand new no record situation so anyone can win. For me I just guess and hope. I would be happy to limp into the playoffs with less than 90 wins and then get super hot/lucky because our long awaited hot streak finally arrived.

This season has created more questions than answers for 2024 which will be discussed in the off season by Bauxites. Atkins will probably say nothing. Based on history I expect NYY and Boston to be in the playoff race in 2024.

Texas bullpen ranks 25th with a 4.95 ERA. That's their big flaw.

They have 6 lefties in that pen.

There is a lot of pitching available this winter, including Yamamoto.
Boston still has a great offense, so it's just a matter of being willing to spend.

The Yankees are handicapped by some big contracts like Stanton's but they should be OK if Judge, Rizzo, Rodon, etc, stay healthy. Things might get more interesting when guys like Torres hit free agency after next year,  as Yankee players don't usually sign short extensions.

Those guys all staying healthy for the Yankees is like me saying how good my health would be if I lost 50-100 lbs. It's possible in theory but it ain't gonna happen.

C Sale was good yesterday. He has 93IP this year so if he is still with Boston next year that is a positive for them. Our pitching positive would be a good Manoah next year.

We need another two or three hitters besides Vladdy to get hot. I choose Bo, George and Alejandro.

I’m very much leaning on the re-sign Ryu train, if possible. The health will obviously always be a concern, but the dude sure knows what he’s doing out there and that is the kind of thing that ages well. Plenty of Buehrle vibes, but with a better fastball.

I think with Manoah, at this point you have to consider anything he provides next season as a bonus. I wouldn’t count on him.

Blue Jays hitters seeing just a handful of pitches in the bottom of the first appear to have impacted Ryu in the second... barely had a chance to catch his breath on the bench.

Hard to reconcile how terrible this team is on the base paths (really poor decision making) and how good and smart this team is in the field. Weird.

Impotent Red Sox keeping Jays in this game.

It's fair game to overrate the home nine, but TB had a higher floor going into the season. While bullpens are volatile they seem to have something figured out.

The O's have a consensus number one farm system. They're going to be tough for a while.

The 2023 season is more or less on paper now. We have seen the flaws.

Don’t like pulling Ryu. Not at all.

Ryu is pitching great. I get he's close to a pitch limit here but bringing in Yimi in the 5th inning when your pen is a bit limited and your sp is doing well is not anything i'll ever agree with.

Can’t really agree with pitching great when four innings in a row you’ve let up two base runners. He was living on the edge here. Even if they had given him the last out of the fifth I don’t think I would have brought him out for the sixth.

It worked out sure, but sometimes even great pitching has some incidental traffic that tightens the nethers. Good pitchers find a way to escape. Ryu looked really good.

Prediction: Vladimir, currently .789, will raise his OPS over .800 by the end of the season.

If Ryu was pitching for Boston and we went 0 for 8 with RISP, the last thing we'd be saying is how great he was pitching.

Nice call by Buck there on the “throw him another breaking ball but a good one down and away”.

Rangers losing 9-1 in the 9th. Good news, but at the same time their series against the Jays is the only time they've looked not awful in like 2 months. And they looked way way better than just not awful.

"It's fair game to overrate the home nine, but TB had a higher floor going into the season. While bullpens are volatile they seem to have something figured out."


Well i guess all the projection systems are jays homers too then.

"The O's have a consensus number one farm system. They're going to be tough for a while."

Doesn't have anything to do with the ta they are now tho.

"The 2023 season is more or less on paper now. We have seen the flaws."

One season is never the full "on paper" picture.

Rays are about to catch the Orioles for top spot.

ah nope, orioles have another comeback in them and finally get to fairbanks as he was over 30 pitches trying to get a 2 inning save.

that's a good bit of hitting. i don't mind that pitch from swanson at all.

Great pitching from Swanson. That is an elite hitter that took him deep. No regrets.

Just turned on the game to see THAT strike three call against Schneider. I think I'll go back to football.

2 balls called strikes vs Schneider.
Honestly the umpires blow so many calls it is just embarrassing the league isn't moving on.

pretty sure the umps are trying to get robot umps into the league as soon as possible. they don't want to call balls and strikes anymore.

The first missed call was an eye roller. The second was intentional. Robo Umps! The sooner the better. Would make a huge improvement to the game.

lol the 1st base ump has our backs!

At least those blown calls didn't affect the game

I think it's more likely the umps are making side money though online betting.

Apparently, not trading Sale is what led to Bloom being canned.
On the book for 27.5M next year with a vesting option I wouldn't worry about.

People keep talking about 90 wins, these teams are playing like 90 losses is the goal!

Can't imagine how frustrated Texas fans must be - they suck for a long time, lose 1st place, get knocked out of the playoffs, then go sweep the Jays and look like world beaters, then get swept by sub 500 Cleveland. Jays have just been dancing on the edge all year teasing us but the Rangers seem like 2 different teams entirely - one a WS contender, the other a sub 500 doormat.

Well a near perfect day for the Jays - they win, Seattle loses (swept by LAD), Texas loses (swept by Cleveland), but Houston finally wins one (lost 2 of 3 to KC). O's beat the Rays, and the Yankees lose to cover the AL East. So the Yankees are now 7 back of the Jays, Rays 8 1/2 ahead. Red Sox 9 back, O's 10 1/2 ahead. I suspect unless something really weird happens the Jays will finish in 3rd in the East. The only question is will that be enough to make the playoffs? Right now the answer is yes, but there are games left to play.

With 83 wins the Jays now have the same # of wins as in 2000, 2007, and 2014. The Jays have NEVER had a season with exactly 90 wins. 4 times had 89 (one division title, one WC, and 1983/1984), twice 91 (1 division title, once a game out of the playoffs... 2021). Only twice did the Jays finish a season with as good a win% as this year and not make the playoffs - 1987 and 2021 - both very painful finishes to great years.

The 3rd wild-card (# 6 seed) is a path through # 3 Minnesota and potentially # 2 Houston.
The 2nd wild-card (# 5 seed) is a path through # 4 Tampa Bay and then # 1 Baltimore.

Qualify and advance, all right.  Avoiding Houston might be ideal.

Most of the playoff teams have a domed stadium or roof.  Comfortable conditions for October baseball.

I guess you pay no mind to the projections that get updated with this year's stats?

Another close win. I found it stressful like a lot of the games. We rarely pound the opponent. We must be setting a Jays record for close games.

For this off season I am going to suggest we acquire more offense and maybe get a bit younger. Belt, KK and Merrifield are all sort of old. They are all having good seasons if compared to my expectations. Chapman still has elite D, he was a great acquisition but he is probably going to deteriorate over the next 3 years.

I would consider trading Springer but I don't know if logically anyone would take him. He is a RF/CF/DH. Trout is 2 years younger but his long career has made him more prone to injury.

After a long time away, Guerrero's mug now appears on the team's BBRef page. Springer and Merrifield have exited the scene. By contrast, neither Varsho nor Guerrero would make FanGraph's rogues' gallery, but Merrifield would. Both sites have Chapman slightly ahead of Bichette, leading the team.

Schneider is still on BBRef's list despite being hitless and walkless in his past five games, so insanely strong was the start to his career. It will be interesting to see if the manager sticks with him as the fulltime 2B/clean-up hitter. And this goes to the broader question of what best serves as predictive of how a player's next AB will go. His performance over the last game? week? month? half-season? season?

Usually the much larger sample.

Off-day quiz. Pete Rose has the all-time record games played. 3562, helped by being his own manager the last few years.

Who is 2nd all-time?

Rest of Season projections


* 1B Guerrero 135wrc+
* SS Bichette 119
* RF Springer 118
* DH Belt 117
* C Kirk 115
* 3B Chapman 111
* 2B Schneider 110
* CF Varsho 106
* LF Biggio 103

* C Jansen 110
* PH Horwitz 105
* UT Merrifield 91
* OF Kiermaier 89

* OF Lukes 89
* IF Clement 87
* C Heineman 80
* IF McCoy 64



* Gausman 3.45era, 3.33fip
* Ryu 4.00era, 4.26fip
* Bassitt 4.08era, 4.31fip
* Berrios 4.19era, 4.25fip
* Kikuchi 4.17era, 4.38fip
* Manoah 4.34era, 4.68fip

* Romano 3.52era, 3.70fip
* Mayza 3.23era, 3.42fip
* Hicks 3.53era, 3.59fip
* Swanson 3.67era, 3.75fip
* Garcia 3.64era, 3.87fip
* Green 3.84era, 3.98fip
* Richards 3.91era, 4.15fip
* Jackson 3.97era, 4.18fip
* Pearson 4.25era, 4.51fip
* Pop 4.29era, 4.55fip
* Cabrera 4.61era, 4.68fip
* Francis 4.53era, 4.78fip

Usually the much larger sample.

I don't pretend to know, and I am certainly not advocating for the arbitrary-end-point analysis favoured by the broadcast teams. These seem as inclined to foster a narrative as to offer genuine insights.

But take Biggio and Merrifield. They have virtually the same OPS+. One is hot. One is cold. The manager will choose the hot player and it seems normal to do so. But what stretch of at-bats sufficiently confers hotness or coldness to suggest that the player now is different from the player before? It is interesting to note that both Merrifield and Biggio have seen their season-long OPS+ tack in the direction of their career marks.

I think we all feel comfortable that Chapman's start to the season was so out of character with his career that it does not reflect who he now suddenly is, and offers little predictive value. Again, we take his career norms and allow for fluctuations around that (factoring in age and injuries).

So what is Chapman likely to do next year? His current OPS+ is 111. It's 118 for his career. Recognizing that he'll be 31 next year, and thus theoretically in decline, is 111 a good guess? Or do we ignore April entirely and feel that the post-May 1 Chapman is who he now is as a player? Had his early and late season numbers been switched, would we think differently? That his 111 under-represents his value? These are the kinds of assessments suitors of his will need to consider and I can't help but think they'll look at his season in total, rather than parse it out month by month.

I think they'll use a multi-year regression of some sort (like the public projection for chapman and free agents in general. Month by month samples won't factor in much at all.

As far as in season decisions personally i would in general stick to the multi-year regressions in general while leaving some room open for shorter streaks to influence decisions. That exact balance is of course what makes a manager good or bad.


But guys like Merrifield and Biggio seem like easy decisions at the moment, in opposite ways. Merrifield doesn't look good enough to start either on streakiness or multi year projection, while Biggio looks good enough on both. These kind of playing time decisions are the easy ones imo.

Kiermaier has been the best outfielder on the club this year, and has been about as valuable over his career per PA as George Springer.  You absolutely want him in the game against a RH starter. 

Hot or cold isn't just numbers. A player can seem cold by the numbers. But he may have hit 6 line drives in that stretch that found a glove every time. Been called out on strikes on pitches that were obviously out of the strike zone. As long as he's making good swing decisions, he's only cold by the numbers. Another might be hacking away far too much, but ground balls are finding holes or ending up as weak choppers that die in the infield or lame ducks that fall in. Both will eventually regress in opposite directions if their approaches don't change, probably sooner than later.

You absolutely want him in the game against a RH starter.

I have heard little this season about what goes into deciding Kiermaier's playing time. He's only had 2/3 of Varsho's PAs and it's not because of the lengthy IL stints that were expected of him. Is it all down to load management? Does he, in fact, require this much rest to be fully functional when he plays (like Kawhi Leonard)? Would he play every day in the playoffs (like Kawhi Leonard)?

It is tough to figure out where the various players are going over the next 2 weeks. Lets check OPS by a couple of measures.

• Past 2 weeks: Biggio 932; Vlad 871; Espinal 810; Schneider 689 (slump); Kirk 684; Kiermaier 673; Springer 639; Varsho 629; everyone else sub 600. Bo at just 405, Merrifield worst for 3+ PA at 261.
• Past 7 days: Vlad 960; Biggio 937; Espinal 871; Clement 800 (5 PA); Varsho 778; Horwitz 714; everyone else 600 or less. Kiermaier worst regular at 268, Springer & Bo at 315 each. Merrifield and Schneider both sub 400 too.
• Best by month plus 900+ OPS guys (min 25 PA)...
  • April: Chapman 1.152
  • May: Kiermaier 1.044; also 900+ Belt, Bo
  • June: Belt 845 (Clement 1000 in 4 PA)
  • July: Merryfield 997; also 900 Jansen, Chapman (Lukes 1.500 in 2 PA)
  • August: Schneider 1.420; Belt also over 1000, Clement 1.000 in 11 PA.
  • September: Biggio 890; Sub 10 PA each Jansen & Belt both over 1000 (sigh).

So Vlad hasn't had one of those power months yet of 900+ OPS, But might be going there at long last at the perfect time. Biggio has been hot too at the right time. Schneider's August was amazing.

Last year in September we saw Bo hit 1.105 OPS, and Otto Lopez & Gabriel Moreno both go over 1.300 OPS but in 10 + 13 PA each. 2021 saw Vlad at 1.153 in April, Semien 1.130 in May, Vlad 1.218 in June (!). 2020 had Teoscar at 1.176 in July and Bo 1.267 in August. 2019 Eric Sogard 1.156 in April, May saw Gurriel Jr go nuts with a 1.378 over 29 PA. 2018 saw Billy McKinney in August hit 1.242 (who knew?). 2017 Steve Pearce in June 1.283 and Josh Donaldson in August 1.133. 2016 saw Josh Donaldson & Edwin Encarnacion both go over 1.100 in June. 2015 finally has a holy crap in Edwin Encarnacion in August going 407/460/919 1.379 and Josh Donaldson with a 1.132 plus Chris Colabello at 1.118. Wow.

So I didn't find anyone going to 1400+ like Schneider did in August but EE in August 2015 came close with that insane 1.379 month, and Vlad in 2021 with his 1.218 June. I'm sure I'd find other 'wow' months if I dug in further, but clearly no one has had as wow a month as Schneider did since at least 2015.

For fun I looked at 2010 and saw Bautista never hit 1.200 in any month, but did hit 1.100 in April, May, July & August. Was shocked to see John McDonald also made 1.100 in August 2010 (blind squirrel found some nuts). April 2011 Bautista was on fire 1.312, and May 1.267 (Adam Lind in 23 PA was at 1.431 no wonder everyone was high on his potential then).

Tried to think of other 'wow' months. Delgado 2000 was over 1000 on the season, 1.138 in May, 1.275 June, 1.311 July, 1.193 August, but slowed in September to a 803 after carrying the team all year. 2003 he was 1.171 April. 1993 the Jays had WAMCO with Olerud going for 400 - April 1.177, May 1.122, June 1.285, July 1.191. Surprising for such a legendary offense that only Olerud cracked 1100 in a month for OPS. 1992 didn't see a 25+ PA month of 1100 either. Not digging into other seasons right now. But that covers the most likely ones to see a 1400 month and while 1300's have happened by Jay legends 1200's are rare and 1100 seems to happen a couple times a year, 1400 is very exceptional.

Nobody has taken a crack at your quiz, hyperbole, so I'll guess the first name to come to mind -- Tris Speaker. I then looked him up and he played 2792 games, but I don't know where that ranks him all-time.

A note on the randomness of baseball : the Marlins were the only MLB team that hadn't hit a grand slam this season until Saturday when Jazz Chisholm hit one. Then, of course, they get another grand slam yesterday-- by Jazz Chisholm.

Hammering Hank? I also wonder where Miguel Cabrera ranks on the list now.

Rickey Henderson?

Aaron is 3rd, Henderson 4th. Both better guesses than my 10th place Ripken though.

Cabrera is 27th. He is 2 games back of Tris Speaker, 7 back of Honus Wagner.

Julio Franco?

Franco is not even close.

Nettles was an iron man at some point i think?and played a while but probably not enough. Cobb played 23 seasons and should be up. Garvey was an iron man but definitely didn't play long enough. Tough one.

No 2 is someone totally forgettable but it totally makes sense.
Not sure what I was thinking with Nettles. He got hurt way too much later. Garvey had his 10 years or so and then stunk amd was probably less than half the total needed

If you gave Schneider an 0-3 to bring him up to the minimum number of PApps required (like they do to determine a batting champ), he slips below 1.400 and Velez as well.

I always guess that these trivia are jays related (even though most of the time they're not) so if i gotta think of a jaysl that played to near 40yrs old but was also a good enough player to play fulltime in his early 20s i gotta go with someone like Winfield.

Not sure i can think of any other jays related guy. Otis Nixon comes to mind but i'm not sure he was a starter in his early or later years.

It's Yastrzemski, everyone. Came up at 21, played til he was 45, never got hurt.

I think Ripkin's number 9 not 10, there are only 9 players with over 3000 games played.

Number 2 looking it up has 3,308 games, which in a 162 season is 20.4 seasons of playing every day of the season. The player involved did it in 23 years, so that is a lot of health and a lot of games played. In his rookie year as a 21 year old he played 148 games, and then from 21 through 39 he only 3 times didn't hit at least 148 games and those seasons were 133 as a 25 year old, 125 as a 33 year old, and 144 as a 38 year old. 5 times in that span he played 160+ including 162 games as a 29 year old. In his 4 years played in his 40s he averaged about 111 games. In terms of quality, his rookie year at 21 his OPS+ was below 100 at only 91 - the lowest of his career. The only other year below 100 was at 41 when he had 96 OPS+. Every other year was 100+ (106 at 43 was his 3rd worst OPS+), and his peak 6 years from 25-30 inclusive his OPS+ averaged 159 led by his MVP at 26 for a 193 OPS+ and 1.040 OPS in a very low offensive era - mlb average OPS was just 664 that year - (his age 30 OPS was actually higher at 1.044 but OPS+ was only 177 for that year since mlb had improved almost 50 points of OPS between the two seasons).

I had forgotten the end of Yaz's career. His last valuable year was when he was 39 and he played to 43. He wasn't terrible in his 40s but he shouldn't have been playing as much as he was.

I remembered the details of Musial's last few years. That's how to leave the game.

"I think Ripkin's number 9 not 10, there are only 9 players with over 3000 games played."

Rose, Yaz, Hank, Rickey we've named. 5 and 6 are Pujols and Cobb. Eddie Murray/Stan the Man both with 3026, so that's 8. Mays at 3005 is 9, Ripken at 3001 is 10.

I was surprised that Ichiro Suzuki who came over at 27 still managed 2,653 games (#38)

The name that surprised me was #14 Rusty Staub. 2951 games played and a class act from everything I've heard. Lots of Latino players don't interview in English. Staub learned and spoke French.

Never could figure out why the Expos traded him.

Ichiro had 3604 games including the JPL. Despite the shorter season. Great, great player.

Former Blue Jay Omar Vizquel ranks 13th with 2,968 games played.

The Expos got the best years of Staub and traded him for Singleton, Jorgensen and Foli. It was a significant talent gain for them.

I had forgotten that the Jacques Doucet invented the phrase "balle papillon" for knuckleball. Delightful!

Le Grand Orange was a local figure of regard in my childhood and a hero returned in my adolescence. He endeared himself to Francophone Montreal by learning French, just like Ken Dryden, Bob Gainey and Larry Robinson would shortly thereafter.

Without cheating, trying to think of who came up with the Jays and had the most games. Some obvious choices - but I'm not sure who it would be. Tony Fernandez had a LOT of games and lasted a long time but had time in Japan and was a part timer at the end (pure PH/DH his final season) plus missed a full season to injury. 17 seasons in total, 2158 games. Anyone have a better guess?

Jeff Kent was my gut reaction - he played 2298 career games.

I guessed Shawn Green but we're moving in the wrong direction at 1951 games

Delgado I figured someone would guess - but he is at 2035. Dumb mid 90's Jays could've got him 100-200 more easily but refused to trade Paul Molitor to free up roster space on a losing team. Safe to say that helped him finish 27 HR shy of 500.

The Crime Dog came up as a Jay.

I was just going to guess McGriff. 2460 games.

With any longevity quiz, I find "Always guess the HOF'er" is good strategy. So is McGriff correct?

Jeff Kent gotta be up there.

Check what Cracka said.

Olerud too.

Kent just beats out John Olerud for second place.  Olerud leads in position player career bWAR, by the way.  The club has had a nice run of first basemen over its history. 

Do you want a job with the Jays?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-blue-jays-area-scout-openings/

Well, time to check the leaderboards....

Fred McGriff 2460 is #71 all-time, just behind ex-Jay Dave Parker (yes, he ended his career here) who had 2466. #60 is ex-Expo Tim Raines 2502, #40 ex-Expo Andre Dawson at 2627, #35 is ex-Jay Paul Molitor at 2683, ex-Jay Omar Vizquel is #13 with 2968, just behind ex-Jay Dave Winfield's 2973. So McGriff is the highest guy who made the majors as a Jay. Jeff Kent at #115 2298 is the highest of any guy who was drafted as a Jay (20th round!)

So the most games played in the majors for a guy who was drafted here is Kent, who reached the majors here was McGriff, who ended his career here was Vizquel, who spent any time here was Winfield. Kind of interesting digging it up and fun trying to figure it out as a group.

If he stays healthy I'd say the guy with the best shot at breaking that record is Vlad as he came up at 20 and is up to 650 games already at age 24 - so 1810 to go or 12 years of 150+ games played which would take him to age 36 - the age his dad was when his career ended (FYI: from 25-end he played 1729 games).

Interesting tidbit about the Guerrero family - Vlad Sr only played in 1 WS (2010 Texas, lost, 1 for 14) and had a poor 664 OPS in the playoffs over 44 games. Vlad Jr has 2 playoffs and a horrid 369 OPS (0 HR 1 RBI) over 4 games. His uncle and cousin never made it to the playoffs.

Bo's dad only made 1 playoff series (4 games, 1.552 OPS so it wasn't his fault Colorado was knocked out quickly), Biggio's dad made it to 6 playoffs, 1 WS but has 0 rings (618 playoff OPS). Varsho's dad made it to 2 post seasons (4 games 2 singles in 4 AB's)

So of the big 3 dad's the one who did the best in the post-season is also the only one of the 3 not to make the HOF (or be remotely close). Go figure. Varsho's dad did well in very limited time, but those Pirates were snakebit (Bonds was a world beater but it wasn't enough vs Atlanta both years).

The home grown first basemen of the Jays went through an amazing stretch back when. First Willie Upshaw (rule 5 pick), up in 1978, twice got MVP votes (83/84), then Cecil Fielder (via trade from KC for Leon Roberts) in 1985 3 time all-star, 4 times got MVP votes but dumped to Japan by the Jays before any of that happened due in part to the next guy - Fred McGriff (via trade from NYY for Tom Dodd and Dale Murray, came with Dave Collins & Mike Morgan who played another 19 seasons) 1986 HOF, 5 time all-star, etc. Next up was John Olerud (3rd round draft pick) up in 1989 2 time all-star, 2 time MVP vote getter. And finally Carlos Delgado up in 1993 (just in time to get a ring) oddly just a 2 time all-star, 7 times getting MVP votes. Just an insane stretch at 1B here. After Delgado left (and JPR was happy to see him go) Eric Hinske took over 1B, followed by Lyle Overbay, Lind, Encarnacion, Smoak, and now Guerrero (4 years). Most years at 1B goes to Delgado at 8 years, Olerud & Upshaw 6, Overbay & Smoak 5. I fully expect Vlad to catch Olerud & Upshaw before free agency and if the Jays sign him long term (wouldn't shock me) he should shatter Delgado's record for years here at 1B.

Ah, one more trivia piece - which Jay has the most years as the regular (BR rules - most games at a position for the team) at 10 years? Kind of surprised no one had more to be honest. 1B had the fewest 'regulars' at 12, DH the most at 27.

Ernie Whitt would be my guess, although I'm slightly unsure of the parameters regarding the question.

Bonds was a world beater but it wasn't enough vs Atlanta both years

Largely because Bonds himself was the opposite of a world-beater in his post-season runs with the Pirates. In the two series against Atlanta, he went 10-50 (.200/.322/.300) with one homer.

Ernie Whitt would be my guess

I think you're right. Whitt's definitely got exactly 10 years (1980-89.) (I would have guessed Vernon, and I would have been wrong.)

"Ernie Whitt would be my guess"

I had Lloyd Moseby as my choice but Ernie seems right.

Bingo - the first try was right. Whitt was the regular at catcher from 1980-1989 with WAR's of 0.1 to 3.4 (1983) and a 2.7 his final season here. #2 is a 3 way tie at C for Borders, Fletcher, and Martin at 4 years each. Kirk has 2 years, Jansen 2 years (2019/20) with McGuire between them.

McGriff was just a regular for 3 years at 1B, 1 at DH. Delgado at 1B and Bautista in RF were the most regular guys at 8 years each after Whitt. Vlad at 1B and Bo at SS are the most regular guys at 4 years each (Vlad has 1 more year at 3B as a regular) on the team today. Carter the most positions (I think) at 3 (LF/RF/DH). Most variable lately is 2B (last 4 years are Merrifield, Espinal, Semien, Biggio), CF has had different guys 3 years in a row (Kiermaier, Zimmer [2 more games than Springer, but Springer had twice+ the innings], Grichuk).

It'll be interesting to see who the regular is at 2B next year (Schneider the favorite right now) and CF (Varsho the favorite at the moment) - both should keep their variability going for at least 1 more year.

For CF it was 9 seasons each for Moseby & Wells but Moseby should get a * because he had a 10th in RF (1980 as a rookie) vs Wells who was only in CF here as a regular.

Despite some unfavourable umpiring by CB Bucknor behind home plate tonight, Boston staged an impressive rally T8, scoring three runs to take a 4-2 lead over Texas. The game is now in the ninth inning. A Red Sox win would be huge for the Blue Jays.

Chris Martin will pitch the ninth for Boston, hoping for some coldplay by the Rangers.

Both texas teams lose so jays are 1 up on the last wild card spot and .5 back of 3rd best record in the AL.


Brewers also lose so jays are 1 game back of 5th best record in mlb, and top 5 is where they should be on paper, tho they should be closer to the top 4 teams.

"Chris Martin will pitch the ninth for Boston, hoping for some coldplay by the Rangers"

Damn this is clever haha

Pre-Monday's games the Jays were #1 in saves in the AL at 50, their 17 blown saves is 2nd lowest to Boston (14 with 40 saves). Holds the Jays are #2 to Baltimore 99 to 97. 2nd best for inherited runners scored with 22% vs Cleveland's 21%. 2nd to the O's for games relieved at 509 to 510 (IE: relievers used). 21 losses in relief is tied for 2nd best with Houston, 4 worse than Baltimore. 32 relief wins is 5th best tied with the Yankees, Baltimore #1 with 41.

No matter how you cut it the Jays have one of the premium bullpens in the AL. Baltimore seems to be the only ones in the ballpark in some respects but they only covered 61% of save opportunities (saves & holds / saves & holds & blown saves).

They say pitching and defense wins championships - I like the Jays odds right now.

"Mays at 3005 is 9" Ah, I had Mays as 10th with 2,992 the difference is if you count the 13 games as a 17 year old in 1948 in the Negro American League as games or not. If you only count AL/NL as the major leagues and what not you only get 9 players over 3000 and Mays just misses. If you count the 13 games in the NAL then Mays just makes it. Jackie Robinson was 1947 when he broke the color barrier in MLB, and Mays didn't play in the NAL or the AL/NL in 1949 or 1950 but was ROY as a 20 year old in 1951. I guess MLB a couple of years ago decided to count the negro leagues from 1920-1948 as officially major league, so you are right Mays should be 9th from that accounting, although it sounds like they are having trouble enacting that change as https://theathletic.com/4503613/2023/05/11/negro-leagues-statistics-mlb-records/ shows.

" I like the Jays odds right now."

Except this is a roller coaster year for the Jays. I don't know how many times we've gone from optimism to the depths of despair. The Boston series featured the return of good pitching and defense, but continued, for the most part, weak hitting and bone-head baserunning.

I'm in no way confident the Jays are going to take the gift of the other wild card teams losing games and run with it because it seems they are adverse to doing things the easy way. It is great to be in the layoff hunt, though. 1994 - 2014 were dark times.

I don't trust this team even a little bit but my faith in their talent level has never wavered. This team can win.

Not sure if anyone mentioned it, but Adam Cimber has started his rehab assignment thus could return to the majors this year. I suspect the Jays are mainly getting him ready as a just in case thing. A guy can stay in a rehab assignment for 30 days iirc which would cover the rest of the season. But if injuries or ineffectiveness hit then he'd be an option.

Last 5 years ERA- seasons from best to worst (this year asterisked):


* Gausman: 70, 80*, 83, 88, 127
* Berrios: 80, 81, 82*, 92, 137
* Ryu: 54, 58, 62*, 97, 148
* Bassitt: 54, 76, 86, 89, 89*
* Kikuchi: 90*, 106, 123, 124, 136
* Manoah: 59, 72, 139*

I'm a bit surprised to see Bassitt having his worst year. ( Or tied for worst ) The pitch clock and the pitch com device has seemed to unsettle him and he does seem to be the most highly-strung pitcher on the staff. Ryu, on the other hand, is easily the most stoic.

Haven't looked at the numbers, but Bassitt feels to have had the fewest 40-60 game score type starts. He seems to have had an inordinate amount of both excellent starts and truly awful starts.

2nd Half Starting Pitching:

* Bassitt 12gms, 6.3ip/gm, 75era-, 93fip-, 102xfip-, 1.6awar, 4.3awar/32gms
* Kikuchi 11gms, 5.5ip/gm, 74era-, 67fip-, 81xfip-, 1.5awar, 4.4awar/32gms
* Berrios 12gms, 5.8ip/gm, 82era-, 96fip-, 101xfip-, 1.3awar, 3.3awar/32gm
* Ryu 9gms, 5.0ip/gm, 62era-, 95fip-, 94xfip-, 0.9awar, 3.2awar/32gms
* Gausman 10gms, 5.6ip/gm, 98era-, 98fip-, 88xfip-, 0.8awar, 2.4awar/32gms

Last 30 days:

* Bassitt 5gms, 6.8ip/gm, 75era-, 99fip-, 108xfip-, 0.8war, 4.8awar/32gms
* Ryu 6gms, 5.1ip/gm, 62era-, 98fip, 88xfip-, 0.7awar, 3.5awar/32gms
* Berrios 5gms, 6.4ip/gm, 93era-, 101fip-, 92xfip-, 0.5war, 2.9awar/32gms
* Gausman 5gms, 5.5ip/gm, 100era-, 94fip-, 97xfip-, 0.5war, 2.9awar/32gms
* Kikuchi 5gms, 5.1ip/gm, 134era-, 92fip-, 84xfip-, 0.1war, 0.3awar/32gms



playoffs rotation?

I think Bassitt is the pitcher whose results have most often deviated from how well he is pitching. I think there have been stretches where the results have been good but I didn't think he was actually pitching very well and the reverse. All in all I think his season line is pretty reflective of his year and what to expect going forward (with normal decline). After Gausman and Berrios you can make some sort of argument for any of the other three as the "third starter" for this team - which is sort of good and sort of bad.

That's kind of what Bassitt has always been though, and consistently - kind of like a knuckleballer profile - a guy who always beats his underlying numbers (and the eye test) by a considerable margin. It doesn't look pretty but it works, and works consistently. He's actually been a bit unluckier than usual in terms of HR/FB rate, which has given him a marginally higher FIP than usual while maintaining his usual xFIP.

Career: 85era-, 94fip-, 101xfip-

Over his career he's beaten his fip by 9 and xfip by 16.

This year he's beaten both his fip and xfip by 14.

Last year he beat them both by "only" 4.

the year before he beat his fip by 4 and xfip by 16.

The year before that he beat his fip by 29 and xfip by 47, though that was in only 11 starts.

the year before that he beat his fip by 13 and xfip by 15.

the year before that he beat his fip by 23 and his xfip by 33.

Interesting to see how the starters have done vs recent performance (past 5 years). Gausman, Berrios, Ryu all having typical years while Bassitt's worst is in eyeshot of his median (86 vs 89 is nothing). Kikuchi and Manoah are the big outliers. One balancing out the other mostly (Median Kikuchi is 123, median Manoah is 72 = 195 vs current of 90+139 = 229 so not a perfect match, but close enough for our purposes).

As to playoffs - going purely on this year you'd go with Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt as Ryu has low endurance still and Kikuchi is such a crapshoot at times. Round 2 I'd have a 4th slot for Kikuchi/Ryu with Ryu starting (1-4, maybe 5 if going well) and Kikuchi coming in for the 5-9 innings. I figure the contrast between them should really help make it a short game. The rest of the pen used to bridge the gap if Ryu leaves mid-inning, and for when/if Kikuchi comes out. You shouldn't ever need a 5th starter in the playoffs.

FYI: Round 1 is October 3-4-5 (no days off), round 2 October 7, 8, 10, 11, 13 - so two days off during the 5 games. The LCS is Oct 15-16-18-19-20-22-23, WS Oct 27-28-30-31-Nov 1-3-4, as always 2 days off in each of the final 2 rounds. plus a day between the DS and LCS, 3 days off between LCS and WS (so nearly a full reset for the rotation possible).

So Jays playoff rotation, assuming full series each time, would be...

• WC: Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt
• DS: Ryu/Kikuchi-Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Ryu/Kikuchi or Gausman depending (2 off days so Gausman on normal rest or the tandem)
• LCS: Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Ryu/Kikuchi-Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt
• WS: Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Ryu/Kikuchi-Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt thanks to the 3 off-days.

Should be interesting if the Jays can get there and go far.