Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
I might take a train
I might take a plane
But if I have to walk
I'm going just the same


You know why? It's the thought of hitting against this pitching staff. That's quite the temptation, one difficult to resist, and of course the only way to get rid of a temptation is to give in to it.



It's not just that the Royals are bad. Which they are. Have you even heard of any of these pitchers? Besides Joel Payamps, and him only because he was a Blue Jay for a few months last season? Oh, you're all familiar with Zack Greinke and Amir Garrett, but they're on the IL. If you've been paying close attention, you're probably aware of Brad Keller, but it's likely that five seasons of hard time in Royal blue simply gets to you after a while. Keller has managed to win 30 games in the AL over those five seasons, which is more than the other four members of the rotation combined.

It's not just that they're bad, well on their way to losing more than 100 games yet again. Here's what I would find especially alarming if I cheered for this team, which I never have and never will. Catcher Sal Perez is 32, he's caught more than 1,000 major league games, and he carries more weight than Alejandro Kirk. He may have led the AL in HRs and RBIs just last year, but sooner or later it was all going to catch up with him. First Baseman Carlos (Evil Ways) Santana is 36, and now three years removed from his last good season. Centre fielder Michael Taylor is 31, and he's five years removed from his single good season. And right fielder-second baseman Whit Merrifield is 33, and this is the fifth consecutive year that his offensive output has declined.

There are, basically, two bright spots - left fielder Andrew Benintendi appears to have recovered the early promise he showed in Boston, just in time to hit the free agent market next winter. And rookie Bobby Witt has fought the league to a draw after a rough first week. Witt has moved back to his natural spot at shortstop after beginning the year at third - he was blocked for a while by Adalberto Mondesi (why?), but Mondesi tore his ACL at the end of April and is done for the year. After messing around for a while with Nicky Lopez at short (again, why?) Mike Matheny finally put Witt in place, where he should remain for the foreseeable future.

Well, the Royals are usually bad. Yes, once upon a time they were the model expansion team. That was some fifty years ago. They built a genuinely great team, that eventually - well past the prime of that great team - managed to win a championship. But for more than a generation now, they've been generally awful (save for a three year stretch of genuine goodness when they - gulp - went and won another championship.) They've lost more than 100 games six times since the 2000s commenced. Again, six times! No other franchise - not the Pirates, not the Orioles, not even the Astros -† has had more than three 100 loss seasons since we started writing 20-- at the beginning of the date. The Royals have been that bad six times. The Colorado Rockies have never lost 100 games. Neither have the Angels of Anaheim, who started playing in 1961. The New York Yankees have - well, no they haven't. They were the New York Highlanders back in 1912, the last time they lost 100 games. The Dodgers and the Cardinals? Last time for both franchises was in 1908.

Kansas City? Six times in twenty years. Ewing Kauffman must be turning over in his grave.

And you know what this means, don't you? This is a trap series coming up if I've ever seen one. The Kansas City Royals messing with the Blue Jays is a bad movie I've seen too many times.

I Have The Fear.

Matchups

Mon 8 June - Stripling (1-1, 4.22) vs Lynch (2-4, 4.81)
Tue 9 June - Manoah (6-1, 1.98) vs Keller (1-6, 4.15)
Wed 10 June - Kikuchi (2-2, 3.91) vs Singer (2-1, 4.15)
Toronto at Kansas City, June 6-8 | 213 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
John Northey - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#414971) #
Outside of winning of course, my next question is who on KC is auditioning for a job here? IE: if they do well they might be traded. Andrew Benintendi - a LH hitting LF with a 132 OPS+, gold glove last year, free agent after this season, making $6.6 mil so cheap, no commitment, no value to KC beyond 2022, used to play in Boston so knows the AL East pressure, 71 games lifetime in CF so he can cover it but probably like Grichuk did (IE: you don't want him out there too much) - looks like a near perfect fit. With the short term contract his cost shouldn't be too high, but KC won't give him away for nothing.

For their pen you gotta like Taylor Clarke who hasn't walked anyone yet (over 19 IP) but has given up 4 HR (1.9 per 9 which is very high). No healthy LH pitchers in the pen for them, so no perfect fits. But I could see Clarke as a 'final piece' in a deal to get it over the top.
Magpie - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#414973) #
What is this mysterious $5.99 charge on my bank account?

Why it's AppleTV. Forgot to cancel.

They knew that would happen, didn't they.
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#414974) #
There should be a picture of the 1985 World Series champion Royals and the 2015 World Series champion Royals up in the Blue Jay clubhouse in Kansas City, and at home when they play Kansas City.  Show no mercy until these wrongs are fully avenged!
grjas - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#414975) #
Today they should score 10 runs. Which means 2. I still have nightmares about 1985.

BTW your dates are out two days. They only wish they had 2 days off
hypobole - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#414976) #
Thought I'd move the quiz to this tread where it really belongs.

Which player with at least 1,800 plate appearances has the highest batting average in Kansas City Royals franchise history?
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#414978) #
Presumably it's not Brett.  Willie Wilson?
Magpie - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#414979) #
I can't think of any likely career .300 hitters for the Royals besides Brett - it wouldn't be McRae or Seitzer or Sweeney - and I'm assuming it's not Brett because that would just be too obvious. How about Carlos Beltran? He was there when he was young and fast...
hypobole - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#414980) #
Not Wilson. Brett extremely close 2nd.
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#414981) #
Wrong.  My second guess was a little better than Wilson but not as good as Brett.    Checked answer and would never have got it- I would have had a better shot at getting #2-#12 in order than getting #1. 
Magpie - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#414982) #
I looked it up. Never in a million years - well, maybe in a million years - would I have gotten this one. Well played!
hypobole - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#414983) #
He played 15 yrs total with 7 teams, but only 3 with the Royals. And his Royals tenure was the only one with an OPS+ over 100.
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#414984) #
Maybe a clue or two, hypobole (the other teams the player played for or something)?
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#414985) #
That's unconscious, hypobole.  Here's a rum and Coke.
hypobole - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#414986) #
Yeah, the answer is the eminently forgettable Jose Offerman. .306 BA with KC. Brett .305. The best he hit anywhere else was .268 the 4 yrs he spent with Boston. He must have loved crazy little women.
scottt - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#414989) #
It's another lefty, so they're running back the all righty lineup.

Magpie - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#414990) #
He must have loved crazy little women.

So do I (don't we all? ) but I couldn't hit .306 in my dreams.
grjas - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#414991) #
Boston has really been on fire. Now all 3 AL wild card spots are staffed by the ALE, and the Yankees show no signs of slowing down. The boys need to run roughshod over teams like KC..
Magpie - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#414992) #
the eminently forgettable Jose Offerman.

He was actually fairly memorable, but not for his KC days. He came up with the Dodgers as a shortstop and made a lot of errors. And it became a great big thing, bigger than was warranted perhaps, but he really made a lot of errors. There was a joke back in the day that his name must have been Ernesto or something because in the boxscore every day it read: E.Offerman (an old joke, that has been told about many players.)
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#414993) #
Does the old joke go back further than Pete Rose's Elmer Concepcion jibe?
Magpie - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#414994) #
Roster moves!

Jeremy Beasley optioned to Buffalo. Matt Gage has been added and will wear #91. Nate Pearson goes to the 60-day IL.
Magpie - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#414995) #
Does the old joke go back further than Pete Rose's Elmer Concepcion jibe?

Definitely. I remember Ron Santo complaining that people thought he had a brother named Ed.
Magpie - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#414996) #
I always liked Rose's other Concepcion jibe, which was along the lines of "How could that man pull a muscle? Have you looked at him?"
bpoz - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#414997) #
Hope Pearson is just book keeping.
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#414998) #
Nate Pearson last pitched June 2. Being on the 60 day means that he misses the majority of the season. It's not bookkeeping. Maybe he will be healthy at some point in his career and be great, but it's a long road that he is on.
hypobole - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#414999) #
Nate last pitched last year. Minor league rehab games don't matter. It is bookkeeping.
Mike Green - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#415000) #
OK. I guess there's no time limit to the rehab assignment now. Didn't there used to be a time limit for that?
hypobole - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#415002) #
Rehab is still 20 days no? The season started April 8 so it's what 59 days in? Once the 20 days are up he can be activated or optioned, but someone will lose a 40 man spot. Or maybe Kay can go on the 60 day?
hypobole - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#415003) #
On the pregame they said rehab is 30 days max and Nate started June 1st.
hypobole - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#415004) #
Ok - 20 days rehab position players, 30 days pitchers.
John Northey - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#415005) #
AN excellent question - how long can rehab be? It depends on pitcher vs hitter hitters are limited to 20 days, pitchers 30 days. Obviously Pearson is a pitcher so he gets the month of June to recover, then could be sent down (Pearson has 2 options left).
John Northey - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#415006) #
For tonight Romano has had a long break - last pitched May 31st - so he pretty much needs an inning just to stay warm. Garcia has been on the bench almost as long - last used June 1st (17 pitches). Sunday saw Cimber (23), Phelps (14), Richards (14), and Vasquez (6) used. Saturday saw Merryweather (19) and Thornton (11) pitch.

New guy Gage last pitched in AAA on Friday (29) so should be OK by now - his peak pitches is 33 this year (1 2/3 IP), lowest 2 (only had to get 1 out). He did throw 2 innings once (just 25 pitches). Righties hit 222/344/222 off him and lefties 121/121/121 (4 for 33). In Buffalo batters were 0 for 25 against him with 1 walk. Wow.
grjas - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#415007) #
3 outs on 5 pitches. Hard to argue about that.
John Northey - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#415008) #
Saw on another site the suggestion the Jays could be looking at a franchise changing trade ala the Fernandez/McGriff for Alomar/Carter deal back in the 90/91 offseason. Back then the Jays had McGriff and Olerud sharing 1B/DH but felt they needed to have just one of them, not both, they had Fernandez/Lee at SS with Lee playing a lot at 2B and hotshot kid Eddie Zosky coming up the system (in AA hitting 271/316/367 and said to have great defense and a killer arm). Sadly Zosky ended up with a 14 OPS+ lifetime, Lee did well at SS for 2 years before leaving as a free agent and of course we all know how well Carter & Alomar did. Olerud would have a HOVG career, as would McGriff (still might end up HOF depending on the vets). Fernandez came back and was a key part of the 1993 WS winners.

So now we have a TON of depth at catcher with Jansen and Kirk both being among the best in the biz today as they are hitting and showing strong defense so far, thus forcing one to be DH often. Hotshot prospect charging hard in Moreno. What other positions have ML depth or high minor league depth? Infield. Bo/Espinal/Chapman cover the core with Biggio a decent backup if he has recovered from his poor 2021/early 2022. Then comes Orelvis Martinez, Leo Jimenez, Jordan Groshans, and more like Rikelbin De Castro working their way up. I can't see the Jays trading any of the ML guys, but Groshans has been in lots of rumors.

So we have our depth. Who do you trade for? Weakness is LH hitting OF (where else could you stuff someone?) but we have 3 regulars - Springer is going nowhere, but Gurriel and Hernandez both are free agents after 2023. The only guy who jumps out at me is Juan Soto - virtually untradable due to being an MVP candidate year in year out, and wanting over $300 mil for 10+ years, maybe $400+. The Jays are one of very few teams that could put a package together that would be of comparable value that might tempt them (Martinez/one of the 3 catchers/plus Groshans maybe) but it would be a high risk/high reward deal for both teams requiring a lot of guts to do it.

More possible is Corbin Carroll (#13 in MLB vs Moreno #4, Martinez #31). At 21 tearing apart AA in CF/LF/RF while batting left (305/425/626). Arizona also has Alek Thomas up in the majors in CF (bats left, age 22) 239/292/466 - at 21 in AA/AAA he hit 313/394/559. Either would be sweet to get. Arizona is very LH heavy right now (4 in their regular lineup) and their #1 catcher has a 39 OPS+ which for a contender is unacceptable. Their top catching prospect is #16 on their list. I really think that is the matchup that could work. Get the Jays a quality young LH hitting OF who can be used in LF/RF and mixed into CF as well who would be under team control for a long time. Could trade one of Gurriel/Hernandez plus one of the 3 catchers (given they are contenders they probably would want one of Kirk or Jansen). Joe Mantiply is a LH reliever having a very good year so far (0.43 ERA over 21 IP, 0.4 BB/9 vs 7.7 K/9 but is 31 with no real track record of ML success) who could help make a deal solid for the Jays all around. Some risk for both teams, but could be a solid fit for both.
Magpie - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#415009) #
This KC pitcher keeps reminding me of Borucki (left-handed, similar build, same loose kind of motion) who made his Seatlle debut tonight (two pitches, got his man.)

Very good job by Stripling, when the team really needed it.
uglyone - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#415010) #
Let's be real there's a decent chance that stripling was always the better starting option than Ryu this year.
lexomatic - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#415011) #
<br>Nate Pearson last pitched June 2. Being on the 60 day means that he misses the majority of the season. It's not bookkeeping.


I thought it was back dated to the start of the season?
uglyone - Monday, June 06 2022 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#415012) #
Espinal doesn't seem to want to drop below his career 5war/650 pace.

Can he do what my boy Devon Travis could not?
John Northey - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#415014) #
Poor Devon Travis - staying healthy is a key skill in MLB. 5.8 WAR over 1246 PA or 3 WAR per 650 PA. He would've been a solid regular if he just could've stayed healthy. Espinal is (before tonight) at a 6 WAR per 650 PA pace LIFETIME. Yikes. Vlad is at a 4.7 pace. What a wimp vs Espinal :) Bo at 5.6, Biggio 4.1, Kirk 5.9. No wonder we all love this team!
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#415015) #
I did some calculations a couple days ago and looking at the last calendar year we actually had/have 8 hitters at a 4+war/650 pace over the last calendar year. The only starter who wasn't was Gurriel who came in at a totally disgusting pathetic ~2.5.

In case you were wondering....yes, that's pretty good.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#415016) #
Last Calendar Year not including tonight's game....

Jansen 142pa, 10.1war650
Espinal 376pa, 6.1war650
Springer 529pa, 5.0war650
Kirk 305pa, 4.5war650
Bichette 683pa, 4.4war650
Guerrero 682pa, 4.2war650
Chapman 592pa, 4.2war650
Teoscar 552pa, 4.0war650
Gurriel 533pa, 2.3war650

That's kind of incredible tbh.

And for completeness...

Zimmer 390pa, 1.5war650
Biggio 199pa, 0.7war650
Tapia 463pa, -0.2war650
Collins 212pa, -0.9war650
Magpie - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#415017) #
Being on the 60 day means that he misses the majority of the season. It's not bookkeeping.

Yes it is, because he's been on the IL since the season began, so he's already done his 60 days. He's on a rehab assignment now - when it's done they can either option him to Buffalo if he needs more time or bring him to the Big Time.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#415018) #
Oh, you sorted that out already. So long ago it slipped what's left of my mind.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#415019) #
Pretty surprising to see Jansen stay in an 8-0 game after getting hit directly on the hand by a fastball. Get the man some ice.

Biggio's flyout was encouraging. He sent a 98+ fastball to deep left-centre on a nice swing. He should start tomorrow's game.
Eephus - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#415020) #
Call me a... young softie I guess, but that's just a sweet moment for Matt Gage and family.

Nice to see the hitters show some pop, especially on a wet damp night in a very unfriendly park for their long ball attack.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#415021) #
Jansen staying in was definitely a strange move.

Nice to see Gage throw a shutout inning. Last year that would've resulted in a post-game DFA. Nice to see the shot of the family, that's a huge moment.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#415024) #
It's interesting that they didn't send Romano out to give him game work.  It's now been a week since he last pitched in a game.  In his career so far, he's been quite a bit more effective on 0, 1 and 2 days rest than on 3, 4, 5 and 6+ days of rest.
Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#415027) #
With 50 games done, I was looking at the jays Roster to see what they need at the trade deadline:
Hitting needs:
- with Espinal and Kirk hitting so well (Teoscar and Lordes will turn it around). For me, the only hole is the 4th OF\DH. I think you have to give Moreno a shot at DH or Orvelis (14 HR in 44 games!..oh my...) I want to see if they could be the answer. Mind you, if the Jays could get their hands on Bryan Reynolds or a David Peralta, that would be nice #5 hitter.

Starting Pitching:
This is where the jays need to do what they did last year.
You have to love the top 3 starters. You know Berrios will turn it around. I have a feeling Ryu, is going to be done. I like Stripling as a number 6 starter. So, maybe get a slight upgrade at starting pitching (without giving up too much). This pitcher won't start in the playoffs, so don't spend too much here.

Bullpen
Assuming the Jays are in the playoffs, what the Jays really need another fireball pitcher out of the bullpen to shutdown a rally. I really wished Pearson or Merryweather became the guy we needed, but it ain't happening. I would love to a trade with the Mariners. They have a lot of arms. Maybe get Ken Giles back and a young arm like Munoz. This is where the Jays should spend big time. I wonder if Groshans and a couple other prospects would be enough...

In fact, they can send us Brash and Toro. Those Canadian boys should be in Toronto. (we can send them Biggio and Pearson back :) ) Just dreaming...

Cracka - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#415029) #
Call me a... young softie I guess, but that's just a sweet moment for Matt Gage and family.

Me too - and the SN broadcast crew does a great job of capturing the emotion of the moment. Sadly, I missed it live last night but was very happy to see a nice clip this morning on MLB.com game replays. Gage looks like a legitimate option as the 2nd lefty out of the bullpen.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#415034) #
Even after facing lefty starters the past 2 games, Jays are still last with only 388 PA's. Baltimore at 708. #17 Cubs 573, #26 Miami 483.

The teams that have had the most trouble vs lefties show some, but not much correlation to the number they've faced, probably because most are not good against either hand.

However the 4 teams that have faced the fewest lefties also have 4 best wRC+ vs lefties.

BOS 441 PA, 118 wRC+
STL 425 PA, 125 wRC+
CHW 396 PA, 132 wRC+
TOR 388 PA, 117 wRC+
hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#415035) #
Thought of Vladdy's 'last year the trailer, this year the movie' remark.

May well still be true, but unfortunately our movie is being released the same year the Yankees have released the biggest blockbuster in 21 years. The last team that started with a better record than the Yankees 39-15 was the 2001 Mariners 42-12. C'est la vie.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#415036) #
C'est la vie...maybe.

Jays admitted publicly they had room for another move or two to try and take the team over the top.... but they decided to hold and maybe wait for the deadline instead, like last year.

bpoz - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#415038) #
Most likely the Jays will get more pitching. Trading for a good SP will be expensive if available. Trading for 1 or 2 reasonably good relievers is probably cheaper and more available. What we have now is fairly good but not deep.

TB always has a good pen for openers and relievers. Getting D Rasmussen and Feyereisen was a great trade. Adames helped Milwaukee last year but is not so good this year.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#415039) #
Free-agent right-hander Trevor Rosenthal is holding a showcase for Major League clubs at St. Thomas University in Miami Gardens today,

The Blue Jays, Mets and Marlins will be among the teams in attendance
Nigel - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#415040) #
Just focusing on the pitching side of things - if you were the Jays and focusing on optimizing the roster for regular season play (this year and next) I think you would prioritize an additional SP (given the available arms on the major league roster and high minors). If you were focusing on optimizing a playoff roster you would likely prioritize another high leverage RP. Horses for courses and all that.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#415042) #
Pretty well all contenders save bullets for the deadline. Except the 2014 Jays.
85bluejay - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#415043) #
In addition to their talented ML staff, the Marlins have a bevy of quality starting prospects in the upper minors - I think the Jays should engage the Marlins in trade discussions - maybe one of our catchers or infield prospects - the Jays and Marlins were said to have discussed Teoscar Hernandez last winter and I'd be amendable to revisiting that scenario depending on the return.
bpoz - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#415044) #
The Jays seem to want to contend every year, so 90+ wins would be the goal. Shapiro said something like a good record will get you a nice payroll the following year.

We don't know what a nice payroll is. Atkins mentioned $200 mil eventually. That is high but a few other teams would be higher.

Home grown talent is dominating the position player portion of the roster. It is young and cheap. Even Vlad is cheap if he provides near MVP performance.

They overpaid for Springer and Ryu but they needed a quick fix from the big losing 2019 season to earn the bigger payroll.

Now that the team is good, SP and position players I don't what more they will target that is expensive on the payroll.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#415045) #
Interesting - ZiPS believes the Jays have had the toughest schedule in MLB so far:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-the-next-two-weeks-are-crucial-for-the-blue-jays/
John Northey - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#415046) #
A lineup that makes many go 'why' - Gurriel gets the day off, Springer is DH - meaning we get Tapia in LF and Zimmer in CF. However, on the bright side, the Royals lineup is laughable - 2 sub 200 hitters, 2 over 250. With any luck Manoah will have his way tonight and get 8+ IP - this is the type of lineup a complete game could happen against, although I suspect the Jays want to get Romano in for a tuneup inning especially with an offday tomorrow.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#415047) #
"Interesting - ZiPS believes the Jays have had the toughest schedule in MLB so far"

Interesting - so does hypobole.

Anyway, going to your link now. Thanks.
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#415048) #
Will Espinal or Kirk make the All-Star team?

Kirk is currently leading AL catchers in WAR and all three triple-slash averages. Espinal has more competition at 2B, with Altuve and Andres Gimenez having particularly great starts. I'd imagine their relative lack of pedigree will hurt them, but Kirk seems to be in the pole position; Espinal will have to continue to impress to distinguish himself from his competitors.
scottt - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#415049) #
And this is it for Joe Maddon.
scottt - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#415051) #
The A's give Rosenthal 11M last year, but he found out in camp he needed thoracic outlet surgery.
That typically entails removing a muscle and part of a rib.
He also has surgery for a tear in his hip labrum in July.
He was decent in 2020 but couldn't find the plate in 2019. (26 walks vs 17 strikeouts)

92-93 - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#415052) #
Biggio has a .273/.448/.409 line in 29 PA since his return, with 7 walks and 9 strikeouts. There is no need for both Tapia and Zimmer in the lineup.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#415053) #
So Madden in LA and Girardi in Philly were hired after Charlie and have already been canned. How many current managers have a longer tenure than Montoyo with their current teams? I think it's only 11.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#415054) #
Totally agree - Tapia should play in one of the next two and the same with Zimmer.
Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#415055) #
I wish Zimmer would go away. Can we have someone more useful?For example, someone to hold the homerun jacket, or to hold a fan to blow Bichette's hair.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#415056) #
I normally check BR but figured lets look at FanGraphs today.

Hitter Leaders in WAR on Jays: 1.5+: Springer, Espinal, Kirk
1-1.49: Chapman, Vlad (both at 1.0)
0.5-0.99: Bo, Jansen
0-0.49: Teoscar, Gurriel, Biggio (climbed out of his hole)
Negative: Zimmer, Tapia (even after his hot streak)

Pitchers...
1.5+: Gausman 2.8, Manoah 1.5
1-1.49: no one
0.5-0.99: Stripling
0-0.5: Romano, Thornton, Mayza, Berrios, Garcia, Kikuchi, Merryweather, Cimber, Ryu
0: Gage, Francis, Kay, Lawrence
Negative: Vasquez, Beasley, Saucedo (IL), Richards

The pitching is very interesting as it is based on non-ERA measures. Gausman has been wonderful by this, Manoah extremely good, the rest of the rotation has been 'meh' with Stripling the best of them (go figure). Clear guys needing to step up or be replaced are Zimmer/Tapia (duh), and the #7/8/9 in the pen with Richards moving to that area as Thornton has earned his slot and Merryweather is looking better. Gage had a nice debut yesterday - hopefully he sticks around long enough to face some tough competition so we can see if he is a long term piece or not. I was surprised that Biggio has done well enough to climb out of the negative WAR category already (that was an ugly start he had) - he is over 0 by BR WAR as well. BR has Manoah at 2.1 vs Gausman at 1.4 - so that is a big dispute between the systems. It also has Merryweather as negative below Richards. Just an interesting difference or two between their systems.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#415057) #
Umpire Scorecard from yesterday (that zone seemed wild and this shows it - when you get a blowout that happens and few care). He clearly expanded the strike zone a bit.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#415058) #
Jansen to IL with a small fracture of the pinky. Expected to be a few weeks. Collins up....
92-93 - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#415059) #
Montoyo really needs to stop allowing players to dictate whether or not they stay in the game. Last night wasnít the first time this season he possibly exacerbated an injury by not using common sense.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#415060) #
"Pretty well all contenders save bullets for the deadline. Except the 2014 Jays."

Of course, the bullets needed at the deadline are completely different than the bullets you can use in the offseason, so saving one doesn't make any difference to the other.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#415061) #
Your just spouting an incorrect personal opinion as fact, again.

Another topic that was discussed was a recent MLB.com report that suggested the Braves were close to their maximum on money this year and that would impact what they were able to do at the trade deadline. Anthopoulos acknowledged seeing that report and said they were false.

"Iíve seen those reports as well. I would say thatís not accurate right now. This is something I learned from my time in Toronto. In 2014, we were in it at the trade deadline, and we had maxed out our payroll in the offseason and really tied our hands. Going into 2015, by design we saved some money on the side in the offseason."

https://www.batterypower.com/2018/7/15/17573254/alex-anthopoulos-braves-budget-wont-impact-trade-deadline
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#415062) #
incorrect personal opinion?

It's a fact that the Jays had plenty of payroll this offseason to add more on the free agent market, according to Shapiro.

It's also a fact that trade deadline moves are predicated mainly on prospects, not on payroll.


For example, our major midseason add last year, Jose Berrios, added approximately $4m to the payroll.



Nigel - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#415063) #
uo - I think its the absoluteness of your first statement that's the issue. I mostly agree with your second statement on this point, but you do need to have the $4m in budget room left even in the example given.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#415064) #
so saving one doesn't make any difference to the other.

I replied to this blanket statement which is your opinion and AA refuted, both in 2014 in Toronto and in the 2018 deadline with the Braves.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#415065) #
I thought it was acknowledged that when Shapiro clearly stated that he thought the jays could sustain a payroll of "not quite, but near top-5 in mlb" that was saying a payroll of $200m was very doable, i.e. an extra $20-30m. I think top-5 this year would take $215m or so while the Jays are at about $170.

And they decided that this year was not the year to do that.

So saying 'oh well the yanks are way ahead there's nothing we could have done about that' strikes me as a tad disengenuous.

Thankfully this year's team got off to a hot start for once, even if there was a bit of luck involved, so 'saving bullets' might not cost as a playoffs spot this year again.
Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#415066) #
With Jansen going on the DL, when does Moreno get a chance? I want to see our hotshot prospect!
grjas - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#415067) #
Jansen is almost as unlucky as Pearson. At least the injury hits while weíre playing weaker teams, but they have another ugly stretch coming after the next 9 games starting with the Yankees, and it would sure be nice to have Jansen back by then, or at least some time in that stretch of 16 games against tough teams.
scottt - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#415068) #
Jansen hits bare handed. That's a risk he takes.
scottt - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#415069) #
If it's broken, icing it sooner won't help.
It's kinda hard to exacerbate a fracture.
Pitchers are always in some level of pain. I think you have to go by the results with these guys.

Ankle sprains and pulled quads are the ones that are easy to aggravate. Soft tissue.

hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#415070) #
Less than 20 players have hit 12 HR's this year. Some of the players with 11:

George Springer
Shohei Ohtani
Giancarlo Stanton
Brandon Drury

One name doesn't seem to belong.

mathesond - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#415071) #
"One name doesn't seem to belong."

Gotta be Ohtani. He's a pitcher, right?
92-93 - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#415072) #
If it isn't broken, it needs to be iced immediately. If it is broken, it needs to be immobilized immediately. It was 8-0.

Hopefully with tonight's order and Tapia-Zimmer back-to-back it means that Montoyo realizes that breaking up the lefties and batting Tapia 6th ahead of better hitters is not a good idea.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#415073) #
The Royals don't have a LH in the pen, so tonight it doesn't matter. But against a team with an actual LOOGY, I think it makes plenty of sense. The three batter rule means you may be able to force him to face some RH batters.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#415074) #
That's now 11 GIDP for Vlad in 55 games. The franchise record is 25 (Troy Glaus in 2006); the major league record is 36 (Jim Rice in 1984.)
hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#415075) #
There is a difference between a break and a non-displaced fracture.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#415076) #
Ball four to Bichette was the first blown call I've seen the umpire make tonight (though I have not seen literally every pitch).
uglyone - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#415077) #
Career, before tonight:

Guerrero (23) 135wrc+
Kirk (23) 127wrc+
Bichette (24) 122wrc+
Nigel - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#415078) #
Ho him, another 3 hits for Kirk. Heíd be hitting higher in this lineup if it were me. .400 OBP doesnít grow on trees:)
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#415079) #
Stay hot, Raimel!
92-93 - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#415080) #
Great battle from Manoah, but it's good to be playing the Royals. That last pitch to get out of the bases loaded jam was right down the middle.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#415081) #
Just gifted one to Bo that should have been strike 3 in the 7th. Led to the 4th and 5th runs.
Kelekin - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#415082) #
Zimmer showing his actual best use cases: baserunning and defense.

I do hope we keep him on the roster, we just have to stop starting him.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#415083) #
Manoah really didn't have his command today. Fell behind a lot and let some fat pitches. Of course it was against the Royals so it didn't much matter.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 07 2022 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#415084) #
Bobby Witt led MLB in walks in 1986, 1987, and 1989, and in wild pitches in 1986 and 1988.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#415086) #
Another rough outing for Borucki. Started the 8th with Seattle down 2-1. Single, lineout, home run, walk ended his night. ERA now over 11.
Michael - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 02:23 AM EDT (#415087) #
Yeah, looked like a combination of Manoah being such a good pitcher combined with the Royals being so bad that even on a night where Manoah was pretty bad (for him) he still didn't allow any runs and went 6 IP.
AWeb - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 08:23 AM EDT (#415090) #
For Manoah, I thought it was fascinating that the announce crew talked about his new pitch, a "front door" 2 seamers to lefties (start inside off the plate, try to hit inside corner), which apparently he had only tried out as of his prior start. Then for several innings it seemed like the only pitch he could reliably get over the plate, and he punched out a couple looking on it IIRC. Might have been a case of working hard on the new pitch, and losing the feel/release point for the other ones, because he was pretty wild otherwise.

Glad he seems to be a hard worker and willing to try new things - Manoah seems like a bit of a junkballer, except he throws 95, if that makes sense? He doesn't seem to be a guy who is maxing it out every pitch,hopefully leads to better long-term health? REsults remind me of when Juan Guzman first started (first three seasons 40-11), but aside from being big guys who throw hard, they aren't really similar pitches.
Jonny German - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#415094) #
You can see the pitch in question several times in this clip. The one at 0:31 is a beauty.

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/blue-jays-vs-royals/2022/06/07/662678#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=662678
John Northey - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#415095) #
On Twitter I saw Kirk is trending right now - others are starting to notice as he is #2 in FanGraphs WAR for catchers with 1.8 to Wilson Contreras' 2.2. Gotta love it.

For other positions Vlad #14 at 1B, Espinal #5 at 2B (#2 in AL), Bo #13 at SS, Chapman #18 at 3B, Hernandez #42 in RF (ouch), Springer #4 in CF, Gurriel #35 in LF (ouch), Kirk #5 for DH (they list guys at multiple positions). Clearly LF/RF are the headaches this year so far (in 2021 Hernandez was #7 in RF (listed as #3 in LF), Gurriel #22 in LF. Gurriel is the one that needs to be replaced, but that would require a trade as there aren't any prospects ready to take over in LF. IMO the ideal is to get a RF and move Teoscar to LF.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#415096) #
yeah john i was tossing around the idea of a Gurriel trade in my head the last few days.

I was thinking maybe seeing if there was a trade out there for a similar level player, but more expensive, that could field a legit CF.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#415103) #
Interesting piece at FG on the Giants bunting. They have laid down 17 and have 11 hits, despite having exactly zero of the 75 fastest runners in baseball this year. Assuming a .300 OBP, they probably would have reached 5 times anyway, so it's only 6 extra baserunners with almost no chance of an extra base hit. But opponents don't want baserunners, so:

"in the last month, opposing third basemen are starting eight feet closer to home plate, on average, than they did against San Francisco in 2021. Thatís true against righties, but itís even more true against lefties"

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-giants-love-to-bunt-or-do-they/


The Jays shift more than anyone, but other than a bunt hit the other day, other teams have rarely bunted from what I recall.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#415107) #
Gurriel has been a little unlucky- not to the extent of Chapman- but still.  His xwOBA is still above average and pretty much the same as last year.  I think he's still a 2 WAR player, and maybe a little better.  Subjectively, he's been better on defence than in previous years and relatedly, there have been fewer head-in-the-clouds moments.  

If you are going to keep Tapia around, using him once or twice a week against a RHP in LF seems reasonable enough.  The optimum situation with all three of Jansen, Kirk and Moreno being above average hitters is for all three to be on the roster and one of them (probably Jansen) having the ability to play a somewhat competent left-field to get some PAs outside of being behind the plate. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#415108) #
Espinal bats clean-up with Tapia 5th, Collins 8th and Biggio 9th on getaway day.  Matt Chapman and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. break up the lefties. Needless to say, it's not what I would do but they're going to win 9-0 regardless.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#415109) #
My idea was to use him to get someone who can man CF on Springer's rest days without being an offensive liability.

Maybe even with an eye to moving Springer to a corner as his contract rolls on.

The best way to do that in a Gurriel trade would be to be trading for a more expensive guy that a team might not want to afford anymore.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#415112) #
Gurriel Jr is not at the peak of his value, because of the unlucky slash line. You would probably get a lesser player.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#415114) #
Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City, Toronto

# of players with at least 1 bWAR this year

1, 3, 7, 10

Match the teams and numbers


scottt - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#415115) #
They have 3 lefties against Kikuchi. Should be even at least.
scottt - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#415116) #
I'd be tempted to put Toronto at 10, Baltimore 7, then maybe Detroit at 3 and KC with only Benintendi.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#415117) #
Results remind me of when Juan Guzman first started...but aside from being big guys who throw hard, they aren't really similar pitches.

It's just the results. Guzman was a little guy who threw so hard, it took him almost a minute to get his strength back to throw the next pitch!
scottt - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#415118) #
Just wait for Gurriel to get hot in July or August and then find a way to protect him from injury.
Maybe lots of DH?

Nigel - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#415121) #
The best thing about Gurriel is his contract. That runs through next year, at which point he'll be 30. I'm not really a big fan (due to the extreme slumps and the head scratching moments) but I don't really see the motivation to deal him. Ideally you'd find a LHH OF who is as good as or better than Gurriel and then use Gurriel and said LHH as your 3A/3B outfielders. As we know, a 4th OF under Montoyo gets 350-400 ABs, which, in my view, would be ideal for Gurriel.
Michael - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#415122) #
"The best way to do that in a Gurriel trade would be to be trading for a more expensive guy that a team might not want to afford anymore."

Is there such a player though? There aren't many outfielders that are good playing for teams that aren't in it. I mean maybe Buxton for the Twins is marginally expensive, but they are leading their division and aren't likely to trade. Soto is still cheap and clearly would be worth a ton. Someone like Yastrzemski is still arbitration eligible.

Maybe someone like Mark Canha from the Mets but he's only making $13M this year with $11.5M next year and a team option for $11.5M the following year (or $2M buyout) - more over while he's been better than Guriell this year and last, he's 5 years older than Guriell and they both have the same 115 career OPS so it isn't 100% clear it would be an upgrade even if year to date Canha has a 121 OPS+ on a 765 OPS to Guriell's 94 OPS+ on a 667 OPS.

So I'm not sure who the target is. The list of clearly good outfielders is not actually that long, and most of the players are playing for contenders.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#415123) #
I'd be tempted to put Toronto at 10, Baltimore 7, then maybe Detroit at 3 and KC with only Benintendi.

0 for 4, but actually pretty close.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#415124) #
Skubal the only Tiger with 1 bWAR, KC also has Barlow and Taylor for 3. The Orioles have 10 1 bWAR guys, which I found jaw-dropping.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#415125) #
I wasn't even looking at Gurriel's current slash line tbh - I'm valuing him as the solid comfortably above average ~110wrc+ type bat that he's been over his career, last year, and last Calendar Year. I think that's where every GM would value him and that's a nice offensive addition for most teams, and cheap.

I've got no doubt his numbers will be back in that range soon enough.

And yeah Michael you may be right that there's no such player I haven't really looked.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#415128) #
I see Kikuchi is still a work in process. 24 strikes, 21 balls.
clark - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#415129) #
Speaking of what players are out there, Ketel Marte would still be such a fantastic addition. For a team like Arizona, they need to build with elite prospects to catch the big spenders in their division. The strength of the Jays catching situation for me makes Moreno pretty expendable. Kirk is cheap for the foreseeable future, and Danny isnít a FA until 2025. He could probably be extended fairly easily. Going forward with those two for the next five years or so could be an affordable and productive situation.

Marte would pretty much fill both the Tapia and Zimmer roles, add the lefty bat with great positional versatility and the ability to cover centre field. Despite the extension, I wonder if a trade package headlined by Moreno would get Arizona thinking at all.
lexomatic - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#415130) #
Kikuchi's clearly not going to get the benefit of the doubt, but I have no idea how wild he's actually been this game so far. But he needs to figure things out. Hes definitely capable, but doesn't seem to be aware of what he's doing in a repeatable way. It's disappointing. He's fun to watch when he's able to throw strikes.
scottt - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#415132) #
It looks more mental than mechanical.
This is a good ballpark to just throw your stuff down the middle.
He's signed for a few years, so no choice but to keep trying.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#415133) #
I have no idea how wild he's actually been this game so far.

Really, really wild. And it was almost all with his fastball. And that was weird, because he struck out the first batter with four fastballs that were all strikes. But after that - 19 fastballs, just 6 strikes.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#415134) #
The last time we had a lead after the 1st inning was May 28. 10th game in a row we've been tied or trailing.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#415135) #
Tapia and Collins with home runs?  Perfect.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#415136) #
Yeah, lately it's been "Who don't we want in the lineup? They're going to do well."
Magpie - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#415137) #
We had established, had we not, that Raimel Tapia feeds opn our scorn.

I thought that was nice work on the broadcast to notice the baserunning last inning - Biggios's little hesitation (it was like a single step) and Bichette's hustle. Easy stuff to miss.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#415138) #
Richards is my guess for the next DFA.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#415139) #
Richards, for all intents and purposes, is a LOOGY who happens to throw with his right hand. His one really good pitch is his changeup, which he generally doesn't like throwing to RH batters. But it works very well, this year included, against LH batters who are still pretty much helpless against him. But RH batters are getting fat and happy.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#415140) #
Gurriel's outfield play looks much improved this year.

Raising his value for all the fans who love to trade our players.
Four Seamer - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#415141) #
The best thing that can be said about most get-away day games - this one most definitely included - is that they don't ruin the evening.
lexomatic - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#415142) #
<br>I feel like Montoyo has blown out the pen again.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#415143) #
Well, when your starting pitcher can only get two guys out, it's hardly on the manager. They're fine. Day off tomorrow. Mayza should be back for the weekend.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#415144) #
I don't know if you can call Kikuchi a work in progress. This is just who he is. He's the Gurriel Jr of SPs. He goes through stretches where he looks like an elite starter and others where he's sub replacement level. You roll it all up and you have a useful 5th starter. Maybe Walker can work some magic but it kind of is what it is.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#415145) #
Tapia is a frustrating player- a 440 ft. home run and then a wind misplay followed by a sun double in right field.  Fire, wind and earth?

Guerrero Jr. looked very uncomfortable today- maybe the GIDPs from yesterday that had him slightly spooked. 
hypobole - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#415146) #
One under-the-radar performance today was Trent Thornton's. 2.1 shutout innings allowed the Jays to tie it at 3 by the time he left.
23 pitches-19 strikes!!
It's only the Royals, but he's been OK for a while. Now at 3.05 ERA, 2.80 FIP in 20.2 IP.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#415147) #
Mayza started for Buffalo this afternoon, strikeout, double, walk. That was it, 24 pitches. Hopefully it's just rust as he is lined up to take Vasquez's spot.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#415148) #
On that sun double in the eighth, Tapia put up his glove but as far as I could see he never got it over his eyes, so not much use.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#415149) #
Mike, you missed Tapia's fielding error and weak-arming Merrifield's probable single into a double. That monster HR notwithstanding, he's really making a case for Biggio and Zimmer to be taking over most of his playing time.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#415150) #
Yeah, Tapia's a truly bad defender, notwithstanding the apparent physical tools to be better. He has Alvis Woods and Ben Revere written all over him on that side of the fence.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#415151) #
Thanks, hypobole. That's an impressive catalogue of misplays for one game. How many times does a rightfielder have a play in a game anyways?
John Northey - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#415152) #
Tapia was an adventure out there today. Every time I think he has turned a corner he walks into a post it seems. At least the injury from today's game won't be a problem going forward (Vasquez - about 12th on the relief depth chart I figure - last in the current pen and behind Mayza & Saucedo once they are healthy imo). Wonder who gets the call up to eat blowout innings? Mayza will be back very soon (Friday maybe) so that might answer the question with Gage being the emergency inning guy. Although with how he handled the pressure of runners on today he might earn more work. We'll see.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#415154) #
Mayza started for Buffalo this afternoon, strikeout, double, walk. That was it, 24 pitches.

It looks like he had a little trouble finishing guys. The K took 8 pitches (5 foul balls) and the walk took 10 pitches (another 5 foul balls.)
lexomatic - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#415155) #
<br>Well, when your starting pitcher can only get two guys out, it's hardly on the manager. They're fine.

Sure. But there's too many disaster starts on a team with aspirations of contending. And last year the pen blew out. This year it's been better but still used heavily.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#415156) #
too many disaster starts

This is an interesting thought (although I think I'd also want to have a word with the pitching coach. And the general manager.) What is a disaster start? How many of them occur? And even then, how much does it reflect how a manager likes to operate (some managers like the Quick Hook, for example.)

Well, I thought of two different types of disaster start. The first would be when the starter doesn't make it through 3 innings. Even if that's how you've chosen to run your staff (every time it's happened to Texas this season, for example), you're still asking for a lot from your bullpen. So...

0 - Cleveland
1 - New York, Houston
2 - Chicago
3 - Los Angeles, Minnesota, Seattle
4 - Toronto, Oakland, Texas, Kansas City
5 - Boston
7 - Baltimore, Detroit
11 - Tampa Bay

The other disaster would be when the starter doesn't pitch very well. The metric I'm using here is as simple and pure as my heart: more Runs allowed than Innings Pitched.
1 - New York
2 - Texas
7 - Houston, Seattle
8 - Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Oakland, Cleveland
9 - Toronto, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles
10 - Baltimore
12 - Detroit
15 - Kansas City
I really think this tells us more about a manager's tendencies than anything else (like, we already knew New York and Houston have been getting terrific starting pitching.) For example, Tony LaRussa and Terry Francona seem to have Slower Hooks than younger managers (Dusty Baker doesn't need a Quick Hook.)
John Northey - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#415157) #
Kikuchi is an interesting case. His raw skills appear to be similar to Ray's, and Ray was a total mess when he came here. In 2020 with Arizona he walked a batter an inning and you can't succeed doing that. He also never was below 3.5 BB/9 in any season in his career in the majors. But in 2021 he knocked that down to 2.4. Kikuchi wasn't as screwed up - his rookie ML season he was at 2.8 BB/9 but that has jumped to 4.7 this year. In Japan his last 2 years he was in the 2's for BB/9 both years. Clearly he isn't trusting his stuff right now, thus trying to get too fine. Might need a catcher who is able to just slap him on the side of his head and get him to toss the ball down the heart of the plate and trust his natural movement will keep hitters from cranking it. Before today his ERA+ was 100 so outside of today's mess he has been very adequate for a 5th starter but the Jays hope for more. IMO he always looks scared out there - like he feels he doesn't belong on the mound. He really needs someone to tell him he is good enough and gosh darn it hitters can be beaten. 4 walks in 8 batters tells me he wasn't trusting his stuff at all. Having a minor league catcher probably didn't help. Sadly with Jansen on the IL there wasn't much choice. With Kirk he has 1 game (5 IP 3 H 3 BB 3 SO 1 ER), Jansen 8 games (20 IP 3.60 ERA 19 H 7 BB 23 SO), Heineman 4 games (17 1/3 IP, 4.67 ERA 14 H 9 BB 20 SO) and now 2 Collins (4 1/3 IP 5 H 9 BB 6 SO 5 ER). No way he should EVER be caught by Collins again. I'd like to see him caught by Kirk again, but clearly Jansen does well with him. Some guys need a strong catcher who has confidence to do well. Kikuchi right now is one of those guys.

This brings up why Collins isn't seen as a good catcher regardless of what he hits. Current ERA by catcher - biased due to who each catches but still interesting. Before today Kirk: 3.13 ERA; Jansen 4.07 ERA; Heineman 6.12; Collins 2.43 (before today) (!!!!). Huh, that doesn't match up does it? I thought it was until I hit Collins. When starting a game he caught: Stripling 1, Kikuchi 2 now, Gausman 4. I think we see why his ERA was so low. After today it should be 3.25 if I figure right. I figure Collins cERA will get worse and worse as he catches more and more, especially if he catches someone other than Gausman who clearly knows what he is going to do regardless of who is behind the plate. Funny - Gausman with Collins 0.99 ERA but with Kirk 3.57, Jansen 3.66 - a deeper dive might show that who was the opponent could tell the tale there. But for now, until Jansen is better, I'd try to line up Collins with Gausman while Kirk catches all others if possible.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#415158) #
In Japan his last 2 years he was in the 2's for BB/9 both years.

Yeah, but Rafael Dolis walked 2.7 per 9 over there. Makes you wonder...
uglyone - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#415159) #
Welcome to the bigs, Gabe.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 08 2022 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#415161) #
Who has been a disaster for the Jays? Starts 3 IP or less - starts more runs than IP
  • Kikuchi: 2 - 3: 6 times sub 5 IP, 3 games where he hit one or both areas.
  • Berrios: 2 - 3: plus a 5 1/3 IP 5 R game - total 3 bad - the 2 short games were bad for R
  • Ryu: 0 - 2: 4 times sub 5 IP though
  • Stripling: 0 - 0, but one was 4 IP 4 R - 4 IP 4 starts, 5 IP 2 starts.
  • Gausman: 0 - 1: one game 3 2/3 IP 5 R 3 ER
  • Manoah: 0 - 0: 5+ IP every time, 3 or fewer R
So a net of 9 games which hit one or the other qualifier (never short IP without high runs) Kikuchi and Berrios the nightmares with Ryu close behind but always getting 3 IP. Manoah is a machine this year so far - dang if he isn't Stieb but with a heck of a better attitude - Stieb 2nd ML season he was 7th in pitchers WAR, then his 3rd he was 3rd for that, then seasons 4-6 he was #1 in the AL for it before a 3rd place in season 7, then he slumped before getting another top 10 (4th) in his last full season before injuries hit. If Manoah can do that we'll see lots of Cy Youngs as voters today are 1000 times smarter than the ones back then (wins and saves were all they checked I swear).
scottt - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 05:29 AM EDT (#415163) #
This is going to be interesting and hopefully fun to watch.
lexomatic - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#415164) #
<br>In Japan his last 2 years he was in the 2's for BB/9 both years.

Yeah, but Rafael Dolis walked 2.7 per 9 over there. Makes you wonder...


Maybe the umpiring is better?
grjas - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#415165) #
Kikuchi reminds me of Juan Guzman. Great stuff but tries to nibble. Borders pounded on him to throw it down the middle and let the movement do the work. I remember one game he emphatically pointed to the middle of the plate during an at AB. We all know how Guzman turned out.

Maybe K needs to watch some old video and our catchers need to keep the message simple.
rafael - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#415168) #
I wonder how fluid everyones negotiating positions are regarding extension possibilities. If I was Jays front office I'd be leaning these days towards making sure there's enough dough for the surprise over-performers Kirks and Espinals and Manoahs down the road. Maybe Jansen too since he gets to be a free agent two years before Kirk and more before Moreno. I'd hold my cards longer on the Bo Vlad Teo Pinapple for the moment.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#415169) #
Blue Jay expected slugging per Statcast (league average is .437):

Jansen .704
Guerrero Jr. .549
Kirk .533
Bichette .509
Hernandez .503
Chapman .487
Springer .480
Espinal .452
Gurriel Jr. .436
Tapia .432

That's a lot of firepower.


Blue Jay pitchers expected slugging against:

Berrios .604
Ryu .557
Merryweather .556
Richards .539
Kikuchi- .517
Cimber- .453
Romano- .431
Stripling- .416
Gausman- .405
Thornton - .390
Mayza- .360
Manoah- .344
Garcia- .318
Phelps- .291

They have to count on Berrios getting better, and that seems like a good bet.  But, they are certainly short a starter and the bar for Adrian Hernandez to be an improvement in the low to medium leverage role is pretty low. 
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#415170) #
As much as I've been an Espinal fan, he's going to be 32 by the time he reaches free agency. And how well will Kirk's body-type age?
Mike Green - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#415171) #
Teoscar Hernandez has missed 4 starts in a month since he returned from injury.  For a while he was struggling, but part of it has also been about giving Raimel Tapia starts.  Judging from his facial expression on the bench yesterday, I don't think he was excited about missing yesterday's game in front of a scheduled day off.  Understandably. 
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#415172) #
Angels now at 14 losses in a row. Moreno karma.
Paul D - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#415173) #
The more I watch Kirk, the more I'm starting to feel ethe Jays have a right handed David Ortiz who can catch twice a week.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#415174) #
I could see an agreement with Espinal to buy out his arb years and the first year or two of free agency and maybe with an option year.  They certainly don't have to do something like that.

Kirk's current BMI according to BBRef height and weight (5'8", 245) is 37.2.  Prince Fielder's was 38.4; Pablo Sandoval's was 38.2.  Fielder was not the same player after age 28 and Sandoval after age 27.  I can't think of a position player with Kirk's body-type who was good at 30.  Ernie Lombardi was legendarily overweight and very slow, but he was 6'3". He was very good into his early 30s.  Kirk hits free agency at age 28 and a half.  They should probably go year to year with him but prepared that he may get a fair bit in arbitration.

The one that they really ought to sign now is Hernandez.  And I would gamble on Manoah. 
Mike Green - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#415175) #
Ortiz is also 6'3" and lighter than Kirk. 
Paul D - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#415176) #
Sure, and if the team decides not to extend him, fine, but I wouldn't rush to trade him. His career OPS+ is almost the same as Vlad while playing catcher and being the same age as Vlad. That's special.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#415178) #
Absolutely.  Alejandro Kirk could be an All-Star quality player this year and almost every year for the next 5. 
scottt - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#415179) #
Manoah is going for max money, so no reason to extend him.
Manoah and Bichette are the 2 players who rejected the small performance related raises the Jays give to pre-arb players.
A lot can go wrong with pitchers and this team does not mind paying arbitration.


The draft is August 2, but the Players Union has until July 25 to agree to an International Draft or the current system with QO continues. In theory those picks are very valuable to the Jays. We'll see what they do with this year's draft.

I would think developing more starters would be the biggest priority.

uglyone - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#415180) #
Teoscar is 6yrs older than Kirk and will turn 30 during this year's playoffs. I'm not sure I'd worry more about Kirk's longevity than Teoscar's.
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#415181) #
I'm also in the "Why the heck would we trade Kirk??" camp. If the Jays are concerned about him breaking down as a catcher, his bat is more than good enough for DH.

We're also trying really hard to trade Moreno. Not me. The Jays player development seems to have had quite a bit of success with short-levered players with bat-to-ball skills. Kirk is a unique talent and may have made it anyway in any team's system. But Espinal wasn't. Capra was an org guy who has far exceeded expectations. Moreno also fits that mould.
scottt - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#415182) #
Neither Kirk nor Jansen has proven that they can stay on the field.
And it's not like Moreno has been an iron-man in the minors.

I imagine that they would have to be blown away by an offer at this point.
In the off-season...things could be different.

John Northey - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#415183) #
The Jays have an advantage ala the Yankees & Dodgers. Namely, potentially unlimited resources financially. The Jays have a higher viewership than any other ML team. Everytime I've checked it isn't close. Worst TV viewership I can recall was 100k per game (that was during the JPR and Ash days when the Jays couldn't get past the 75-85 win window). Today they see half a million per game, even in spring training games. For comparison, https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2021/08/06/mlb-seeing-local-tv-households-decline-dramatically-compared-to-last-full-season/?sh=559a11b56f77>the Yankees have around 200k households watching a game on average - or well under half a million viewers. The Jays do about that for spring games right now (via this article 450k for a spring game). The series opener vs Houston had 1.45 million viewers for example. Given TV rights are in the $200+ million range for many US based teams one has to assume the Jays TV value to Rogers is in that ballpark. Mixed with a stadium that is slowly filling and other benefits (since Rogers owns the stadium and leverages the Jays in other areas whenever possible) the potential value is insane.

Bottom line? The Jays can wait for players to reach free agency then extend them at that point. As a fan I'd love to see some of these guys signed long term, but practically it makes sense to only do it if the deal is team friendly (ala Berrios) or if the player is a free agent (ala Springer/Gausman) so the club can not be stuck with long term deals unless necessary. Given how Berrios isn't doing well this year the Jays might be regretting that deal already. So don't expect any long term deals for Kirk, Manoah, Vlad, Bo, etc. as the team doesn't need to. Instead enjoy them while they are here and if they reach free agency the team will then decide if they are worth another 5+ years at whatever the market price is, or if they have replacements ready to take over.
John Northey - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#415185) #
Something I love about Moreno & Kirk - both were IFA signed for about $25k each. IE: no one else saw them as serious prospects. Whatever scout found them should get a big raise. Hopefully the Jays keep chasing down guys like that, regardless of an IFA draft or not. If an IFA draft happens I hope it is for as few rounds as possible (ideally no more than 5) as many teams won't sign those guys, and if the picks can be traded then the Jays can go nuts dealing for extra picks and then getting the big dollar guys (ala Vlad) while still signing every cheap guy they can find (ala Kirk & Moreno).
uglyone - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#415188) #
I forget that they were actually signed in the same 2016 draft class. Remember Kirk is only a year older than Moreno.

Sure hope we still have that scout on the payroll.
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#415189) #
Don't know about Moreno, but Dean Decillis found Kirk. He is still a special assignment scout with the Jays.
Cracka - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#415190) #
Francisco Plasencia is the scout who "found" Moreno, and thankfully he's still with the org (Scouting Coordinator, South America). Full details here in this must-read story on mlb.com: https://www.mlb.com/news/featured/gabriel-moreno-journey-from-venezuela-to-top-prospect
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#415191) #
Here's the Kirk story for those who haven't seen it, plus more Decillis

"When Tinnish and Co. drafted right-hander Marcus Stroman in the first round (22nd overall) in 2012, Decillis ďhad a big influenceĒ on the decision, the VP says. He also factored in the Blue Jays targeting infielder Santiago Espinal"

Yeah, this is a scout you hold on to.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/longform/never-know-whos-looking-blue-jays-found-alejandro-kirk/
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#415192) #
Thanks, cracka. Nice read.
uglyone - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#415195) #
So both guys still with the org. Nice.
bpoz - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#415196) #
Various Bauxites follow the Int'l signings by the Jays. I believe that we sign a huge quantity maybe as high as 50 per season. So with lots of cheap signings it could be a numbers game.

For example who is Jean Joseph? SSS but doing well in the DSL. Maybe our next unheralded good prospect.
Lylemcr - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#415197) #
I am interested to see what Moreno does. Jansen is the best defensive catcher of the 3 and probably has the least trade value.

I have to say, I love the way Kirk is hitting right now and I would hate to see the Jays trade him.

So, let's see what Gabe can do! Hopefully, the Jays have a good problem on their hands.
bpoz - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#415201) #
Last year we used 4 Cs because Jansen and Kirk got injured. R Adams and McGuire filled in. This year also 4 Cs to date. Collins and Heineman have filled in.

3 good catchers can be good in case of injury. By the way I count Danner as a P/C if/when he gets healthy and makes it as a reliever or maybe a SP (longshot).

Jansen is a FA 1st. I don't know what he will do this year when healthy. He had his 1st Arb I think. What will he earn/deserve in 2nd & 3rd arb years? C is an important position for a contender.
92-93 - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#415205) #
I'm open to the idea that Jansen is the best defensive C of the 3, but I haven't seen that yet this season. Kirk has looked really solid back there, and most of us have never seen Moreno. Similarly, Zimmer is supposedly a better defensive CF than Springer but I have actually been pleasantly surprised by Springer's defense this season. Perhaps it's just a function of Zimmer not really having many chances to flash his range, though he did make a nice catch the other day. They both like to actually go after fly balls instead of pulling up on them, something Gurriel and Tapia are wont to do. And that's all eye test only, I have no idea what the fancy stats think.
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#415206) #
"Jansen is the best defensive catcher of the 3 and probably has the least trade value."

Both BRef and Fangraphs disagree this year on the defence. BRef has Kirk slightly better. Fangraphs has Kirk far better due to a large disparity in framing. In fact FG has Kirk as one of the best defensive catchers in all baseball.
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#415208) #
As for defence, had to check after Tapia's debacle yesterday.
In only 165 innings in RF, he's -5 DRS. Only 2 guys with worse numbers. Eddie Rosario,-6 in 96 innings. He's gone for the year because his blurred vision required laser eye surgery. Nick Castellanos is -11, but in 400 innings. Tapia is worse on a per-inning basis.

Surprisingly he's +1 in LF, and +10 in left over the past 3 seasons.
Lylemcr - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#415211) #
I didn't realize that Kirk was considered better defensively. I do know Moreno has a cannon for an arm.

Oh well.. Hopefully, Moreno makes it a problem.

With the way Espinal and Kirk are hitting, once Bo, Vlady, Teoscar and Lourdes turn it around, this lineup will be lethal! I also think Chapman has hitting it hard as well lately.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#415212) #
On the subject of international signing, Dahian Santos is another good signing from 2019 out of Venezuela. In 34 innings at Dunedin he has given up 16 hits, 17 walks and 65 strikeouts.
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#415214) #
That would be Florida State League May Pitcher of the Month Dahian Santos.
Nigel - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#415216) #
hypobole - I really don't trust Coors field OF defensive metrics. I don't believe, for a second, that Tapia has been an average corner OF defensively.

Kirk's defence has definitely taken an uptick this year. He's also a prime example of why C defence is hard to judge over limited in person viewings. His one obvious defensive shortcoming is his poor arm strength. That's the one thing that would likely pop out at you if you saw him live 2-3 times. C arm strength is overrated in today's baseball environment (in my view) as part of the C defensive tool kit. The one thing that he can do really well is catch the ball (a key C skill and I don't say that facetiously) so he's got Gary Sanchez beat all to heck as a defensive C:)
jgadfly - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#415218) #
Mike ... "a position player with Kirk's body-type who was good at 30" ... how about Roy Campanella; 5'8" and way more than the listed 195 lbs ... 3 time NL MVP 1951 (age 30), 1953 & 1955 and if I remember correctly he was probably slower than Kirk ... if Kirk could lengthen his stride by maybe 3-5 inches he'd almost be as fast as Kirby Puckett (plus the usual catcher discount & dispensation) ... well on reflection perhaps not
soupman - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#415219) #
If weíre gonna talk about Kirks bmi we should discuss Vlad. Kirk has shown he can hit with the weight on, but Iím not convinced Vlad can. I donít think kirk is bringing a ďfranchise definingĒ return in a rumoured mega trade but Vlad might. Vladís numbers declined last year as his weight went back up. Heís visibly in about the same shape as when he was called up and the numbers look similar enough to me. I donít think they should be paying him long term given his inconsistency at the plate and with fitness. If thereís an injury we donít know aboutÖthatís another story.
lexomatic - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#415220) #
Puckett got big. There's lots of people who've been able to hit with the body type (I've seen writing on this... I feel like it was in my old Baseball Prospectus issues, but I no longer have those), but running (and defense) are the issues along with longevity.
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#415221) #
I'll disagree Nigel on Tapia in left, at lest with the Jays. He's been OK IMO. All mis-plays I recall, including throwing to the wrong base, have come in centre and right even before yesterday.
Magpie - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#415222) #
Puckett got big.

After he retired. Until then, he was just short.
Magpie - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#415223) #
if I remember correctly [Campanella] was probably slower than Kirk ...

You don't! Certainly not until he got into his 30s anyway.
John Northey - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#415224) #
FanGraphs has Tapia in LF: -5.0 UZR/150, 0 OAA, 0 RAA, DRS 1, in CF -55.9 UZR/150 (IE: many here could probably do that), -2 DRS, 0 OAA/RAA, RF -8.9 UZR/150 -1 RAA/OAA, -5 DRS.

Tapia on defense, by any measure in any OF slot, has been horrid. Teoscar Hernandez in CF was ugly, but never anywhere near that ugly (-9.7 lifetime UZR/150, worst was a -23.7 in 2017) and is actually a positive last year and this but in just 7 innings this year and 55 last. I mean, Gurriel at SS was better (-28.4 UZR/150 in 2019) and that is a LOW bar. Vlad at 3B was -14.6. UZR/150 isn't a perfect measure but to get a -55 is frightening. For those wondering, Zimmer has been ugly in CF too at -25.7, and Springer at -12.4 is no great shakes. Wonder if it is screwed up by the massive shifting going on and the 4 man OF. Yet Hernandez is +10 somehow in his 7 innings. Weird.
Magpie - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#415225) #
Campanella was one of those roundish guys who are remarkably light on their feet. He was quicker and more mobile than Yogi, and his best years are better than Berra's. But Campanella was like Bench, up and down from year to year. Berra never had a bad year.
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#415226) #
John, stop using UZR, no matter you like it. Even Fangraphs doesn't use their own UZR system for flyball catching, and yes, because of shifting.
John Northey - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#415227) #
Fangraphs baserunning runs has Biggio #1 at 1.3, then Hernandez, Chapman, Tapia all over 1, then under 1 but above 0 are Springer, Bo, Jansen, Collins, Espinal, 0 is Gurriel, sub 0 are Zimmer (-0.1), Kirk (-1.6), Vlad (-2.3). So yeah, Kirk is slow but Vlad is worse. Yikes.

For Baserunning runs 2021 you get Grichuk last at -4.9, Vlad -2.1, Gurriel -2.0, Panik -1.8, then Kirk -1.7. Best was Bo at 6.9, then Semien at 4.0.

For fun I checked the 1985 Cardinals and Vince Coleman who stole 110 that year - his speed score is 11.8, no one else on that team cracked 5. A shame his career was so messed up (he went to the Mets and never was the same, and iirc he was a bit of a diva). Rickey Henderson (best baserunner ever imo) peaked at 14.0 in 1983 (108 SB) and was never a negative. Jays never have had a real burner outside of that half year of Rickey though - most who could steal were high CS as well thus didn't get a good score (Damaso Garcia, Alfredo Griffen, Tony Fernandez are good examples). Tim Raines cracked 10 5 times, all as an Expo.

Roy Campenella for comparison for Kirk - peak of 0.6, floor of -1.1, lifetime 1.3. So Kirk is slower and needs to work on that if possible. I remember years ago the Jays had Raines here as a coach in spring to help with baserunning - boy would that be an interesting challenge for him with Kirk. Of course, a guy hits like he is right now and you don't care much.
Thomas - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#415228) #
Yeah, those UZR numbers are next to useless, I think.

Zimmer is 12th in the majors in sprint speed (or was last time I checked), appears to generally take good routes and judge flyballs well and doesn't make errors. Wherever he falls in tiers of CF defence, it's not right near the bottom.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#415229) #
Vlad seems to have lost confidence at the plate. Hopefully he turns it around soon,
John Northey - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#415230) #
hypobole - if you don't like it then show me stats from another source. I used it because it was there and my eyes popped out over Tapia's insanely bad score. I listed OOA and others just to give other context but FanGraphs has nothing by position that adjusts for playing time other than UZR/150.

Rdrs/Year by BR does adjust for playing time and splits by position so lets check that...
LF: +9, CF: -41, RF: -36 Yikes outside of LF.
For comparison other CF's on the Jays...
Zimmer: +14; Springer: 0

See? Not hard to find another measure. If you want others to stop using stats you find useless please suggest instead of making them hunt down others. Much more polite that way.
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#415231) #
Zimmer is only 1 for 2 stealing bases. I remember the caught stealing, because I thought he did a horrible job. If he would have slid he would have been safe but he did this weird popup slide, starting to stand up before he reached the bag right into the throw.
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#415232) #
John, I've posted on multiple occasions that Fangraphs stopped using UZR as their go to stat for defensive value. It's not that I find UZR/150 useless, it's Fangraphs itself that finds it useless.

As as you mentioned, it's the shifting. You wrote:

"For those wondering, Zimmer has been ugly in CF too at -25.7,"

Check the UZR components and you see that ugliness is completely driven by the -2.8 Range stat. That is the part that FG doesn't use to determine defensive value, because they acknowledge UZR Range is useless and that is exactly what OAA covers. So FG uses the OAA as Range. He's +2 there, which also what he is at DRS, +2 Plays Made.

Apologize for coming across the way I did.

John Northey - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#415233) #
OOA and DRS are limited to me as they are no different than telling me 'Kirk has 48 hits and Vlad 49'. Without context it means little. Add in AB's and Kirk has a BA of 322 to Vlad's 243. OOA and DRS tell me Springer has made 2 more outs than expected, vs Tapia at 0 for each. But without opportunities how do you know what is a good score and what is a bad one? Same with the baserunning stats I listed - without context they mean little but if you say mid-season Kirk has gone more negative than the guy we were comparing him to did in a whole season then it means something (namely Kirk is slower than a guy known to be slow).

I'd LOVE it if FanGraphs would have a fielding stat that is adjusted to 'per full season' other than UZR. Especially now that they feel UZR is useless. I don't get why they don't, among other issues I have with their site (mouse over a column should give a definition - it only takes html code that has existed since the mid-90's to make it work, sorting of columns would be nice as well).
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#415234) #
But without opportunities how do you know what is a good score and what is a bad one

I'm not sure this is what you mean, but OAA comes from statcast which does somewhat, but not quite, show opportunities in the Success / Estimated Success.

Here are our CF's

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2022&endYear=2022&split=no&team=TOR&range=year&min=q&pos=8&roles=&viz=hide

grjas - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#415235) #
Puckett got big.

I used to love watching Puckett fly to the fence and jump for the HR ball..like a leaping fire hydrant. Looked like he just came from an all you can eat buffet, but man he could play.

I share posters concerns about Vlad. He seems to alternate between 2020 VG and 2021. Not sure what the issue is. He supposedly arrived in good shape, and they have rested him off the field a bit, but heís hitting a lot of worm burners and of course the DPís are off the map. His OPS is till over 800, but the consistency we saw most of last year seems to have vanished.
hypobole - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#415236) #
From the "Sad but True" dep't:

Pirates, with a -79 run differential and 6 games under .500, are closer to 1st place in the NL Central than the Jays are in the AL East.

John Northey - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#415239) #
It'll be interesting if they do balance the schedules so the Jays don't have to play the Yankees/Rays/Red Sox so much. The Central's could look really, really bad by seasons end. I'd love some radical realignment to make it so the Jays are in the AL Central instead (all else equal they'd be 2 back of the Twins right now).

What has messed up the AL East most is the Yankees rotation has been extremely healthy which no one would've predicted - Severino just 7 starts from 2019-2021 but 10 this year, Taillon had 29 last year but missed 2020 and only 7 in 2019. Cortes was mostly a reliever before this year (16 career starts vs 11 in 2022). Cole is who he is, an ace. Hopefully Chapman on the IL will hurt them but not so far as Clay Holmes after being a negative WAR guy for Pittsburgh is now a strong reliever for the Yankees. Sigh. Bloody Yankee magic.
scottt - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#415242) #
I thought the balanced schedules had already be announced.
15 games against division rivals instead of 19.
1 single series (either home or away) against every NL team instead of 2 series (home and away) against one division plus 2 series against the NL rival.

Glevin - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#415247) #
"The Central's could look really, really bad by seasons end. I'd love some radical realignment to make it so the Jays are in the AL Central instead"

The centrals being so bad allows all those cheap central owners to compete without spending. Baseball should go back to 4 divisions. I also hate that the 2 cities easiest to drive to (Det and Cle) are both in the central. Detroit especially is such a natural rival.
John Northey - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#415248) #
Radical realignment - getting rid of AL/NL or making it so one is East Coast and the other West. Put the Jays in a division with Detroit & Cleveland among others would be ideal. Add 2 new teams (I'd love one for Montreal, but Charlotte or Nashville seems likely plus a west coast one in Portland or Vegas. Vancouver is now on the outer edge but I don't see it happening any time soon, certainly not before Montreal or assorted US cities. More likely to get a team that is moving (Tampa for example if it doesn't go to Montreal first).
greenfrog - Thursday, June 09 2022 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#415252) #
The Yankees have scored six unanswered runs and they now lead Minnesota 9-7 (they're still batting in the seventh inning). If they win they'll be 41-16.
dalimon5 - Friday, June 10 2022 @ 07:08 AM EDT (#415255) #
Mike Sweeney
Mike Green - Friday, June 10 2022 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#415259) #
Surprise of the morning- the real (in my opinion)  1969 World Series MVP was not Donn Clendennon (who got the award) but Al Weis.  How many hitters with as poor a career and regular season line as Weis have been the most impactful player in the Series?  Pat Borders was an almost decent hitter in 1992.  Bobby Richardson, Bucky Dent and Rick Dempsey were all noticeably better hitters. Any other contenders?
greenfrog - Friday, June 10 2022 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#415260) #
David Eckstein in 2006?

Regular season: .292/.350/.344 (wRC+ 87)

WS: .364/.391/.500
Mike Green - Friday, June 10 2022 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#415261) #
Eckstein was a surprise star in the World Series, but was a serviceable hitter and a good player overall. Al Weis was a utility infielder and the right-handed part of a platoon in 1969, and pretty lousy at even that, and only got as much work as he did because the Orioles rotation tilted left.
scottt - Friday, June 10 2022 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#415274) #
In the current format (12 playoff teams) I don't think it matters.
It's like the Twins. They made the postseason 8 times since 2002 and have won only 2 games and none since 2004.

Magpie - Friday, June 10 2022 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#415277) #
[Weis]only got as much work as he did because the Orioles rotation tilted left.

Clendenon, Charles, and Swoboda didn't even appear in the NLCS against Atlanta. The Baltimore LH started 4 of the 5 Series games, and they actually pitched just great. Cuellar won the opener, the Mets won 2-1 twice, and they won the finale against the Baltimore bullpen.
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