Which pair of AL starters is most likely to provide 400 top-drawer innings in 2006?
| Buehrle & Contreras |  10 (6.80%) |
| Colon & Lackey | 10 (6.80%) |
| Halladay & Burnett | 35 (23.81%) |
| Harden & Zito | 43 (29.25%) |
| Johnson & Mussina | 1 (0.68%) |
| Sabathia & Lee | 4 (2.72%) |
| Santana & Radke | 41 (27.89%) |
| Schilling & Beckett | 3 (2.04%) |
147 votes | 13 featured comments
I love this question. Any one of the duos might do it, but none are better than a 40% proposition, in my view. In quite a few of the cases, the #2 pitcher might not end up as the 2nd best starter on the club.
OF these eight pairs, just four of them managed to combine for 400 IP in 2005. And again, just four of these eight pairings included two pitchers whose ERAs were both below 4.00.
Put both factors together, and we have just two pairs out of this eight which a) combined for 400 innings, and b) both guys had ERAs below 4.00.
And I had already voted for one of those pairs! Before even bothering with the research! I feel clever today!
That's Buehrle and Contreras, by the way.
I know I'm the only openly professed Yankee fan active on this site, and I voted for Santana/Radke myself but Moose and Unit are the ONLY pair (through the first 57 votes anyway) without ANY support?
That is a couple of Hall of Famers there, kids. And the Yankees don't win the division -- NYY preview in this space tomorrow morning! -- without them getting to a combined 450-475 IP (unless Aaron Small stays undefeated as a Yankee for the rest of his life, I suppose) ... but NO votes?
That is a couple of Hall of Famers there, kids. And the Yankees don't win the division -- NYY preview in this space tomorrow morning! -- without them getting to a combined 450-475 IP (unless Aaron Small stays undefeated as a Yankee for the rest of his life, I suppose) ... but NO votes?
Mick, the question says, "most likely".
You can only vote for 1, nowhere does it say that the twosome that you select is the only to reach the 400 innings.
You can only vote for 1, nowhere does it say that the twosome that you select is the only to reach the 400 innings.
Which is why I voted for the Twins pair. Doesn't change the fact that I'm shocked NOBODY has voted for the two guys in the Bronx. I think that's the Yankee-hatin' gene as much as anything. Even Schilling and Beckett have a vote, and that seems far less likely, from a health perspective, in my view.
Why no Yankees and so few White Sox voters? Bias. You'll note that nearly half the voters selected the A's and Jays duo. That's not a coincidence.
Incidentally, it's either Buerhle and Contreras or Santana and Radke. There's no more reliable pitcher than Buehrle -- unless it's Santana. Those two will push 240 innings each on their own, and I suspect's Jose's elbow will hold up to allow him to pitch more than 160 innings. As for Radke, well, he's always healthy. He'll do 180 innings without breaking more than three or four sweats.
Incidentally, it's either Buerhle and Contreras or Santana and Radke. There's no more reliable pitcher than Buehrle -- unless it's Santana. Those two will push 240 innings each on their own, and I suspect's Jose's elbow will hold up to allow him to pitch more than 160 innings. As for Radke, well, he's always healthy. He'll do 180 innings without breaking more than three or four sweats.
It's probably a bit of the anti-Yankee bias combined with the fact that it's pretty unlikely that Johnson and Mussina will provide you with
- 400 innings — Mussina in particular hasn't seen the happy side of 200 IP in two years;
- Of top-drawer pitching — Moose hasn't been dominant in longer (last ERA+ over 130: 2001), but even Johnson is unlikely to recover his mindbogglingly good performances of the early naughts, due to his age if nothing else.
Former CY Young award winner in a contract year + young Canadian stud got my vote. Notice "young" is used in both cases, which is why I cannot vote for any pair with geriatrics Schilling or Johnson in it, or any other pitcher born in the 60s. Plus I'm a Jays fan.
Mick - you repeatedly refer to Johnson and Mussina as Hall of Famers in this and other threads as if it matters at all for the 2006 season. Johnson and Mussina do not pitch like Hall of Fame pitchers anymore - especially Mussina. I'm not saying it's likely they'll both be terrible but average to slightly-above average and injury-prone are much better bets.
Great little question. Mick, Moose and Randy combine for what, 79 years of age? That's why I didn't vote for them. I voted for the Twins duo as Gitz nicely laid out. The White Sox tandem didn't get my vote, despite me instantly looking for Mark Buehrle. If Garcia or Garland would have been his partner, I might have gone this way, as they've each been consistent, but Contreras? Last year was his first good year, and I'm not convinced he's not actually 44 years old, cause he sure looks at least that old.
I have some health questions about Harden. Colon and Lackey are almost certain to reach 200 each, but can Lackey finally put it all together. I'd say that all but the Yanks, Indians, Red Sox will reach this 400 top flight innings mark.
I have some health questions about Harden. Colon and Lackey are almost certain to reach 200 each, but can Lackey finally put it all together. I'd say that all but the Yanks, Indians, Red Sox will reach this 400 top flight innings mark.
Colon and Lackey are almost certain to reach 200 each, but can Lackey finally put it all together.
Sure. He put it all together last year. He and Colon are the other pair (each over 200 IP, each under 4.00), and Lackey was just as good as Colon last year.
Who will log more innings this season: Johnson and Mussina or Lilly and Towers?
Lackey is terrific. Assuming Santana won't win the award because his 2.50 ERA, .98 WHIP, and 250 strikeouts will yield only 15 wins, I could see Lackey winning the AL Cy Young. Really, between Lackey, Harden, Halladay, and Santana, we could be headed for a year even more compeling than 2003, when Hudson, Halladay, and Loaiza all had excellent claims to the award.