Aren't these ERA choices a little optimistic?

His ERA last year was well above the highest one available to choose here.

It depends on how much you attribute Lilly's poor performance in 2005 to his poor health, and whether or not you think he's likely to perform badly in 2006 due to injuries. The voting thus far says the choices aren't over-optimistic at all, it's taking the shape of a nicely centered bell curve. Granted, I've been surprised at how optimistic Bauxites are in general with the results we've been getting from these polls.

Lilly's FIP in 2004 and 2005 were very comparable in the 4.5 to 4.65 range. I marked him down for an optimistic 4.3, presuming that the Jays don't go with an outfield of Hinske, Wells and Catalanotto. Lilly's a flyball pitcher, and he'd notice the difference if the Jays chose a lesser outfield defence.

I think that the optimism shown by the voters has a lot to do with the choices they're given. It's just human nature not to pick the bottom one unless you really think he's gonna tank, bur realisticly, the bottom one here's not that bad.

Also...is there really any proof his high ERA had anything to do with poor health?