Tomo Ohka Signing:
| Good Move |  145 (60.92%) |
| Ok Move | 89 (37.39%) |
| Bad Move | 4 (1.68%) |
I'd be interested to know why someone would think this is a bad signing. They're basically renting a solid #4 starter (at worst) for the relatively paltry sum of $1.5 million. Did someone press the wrong button?!? :-) or is a case being made for giving the younger guys (Macgowan, Marcum, Janssen, and Towers) innings?
Mike, this is not directed at you individually, but as part of what seems to be a growing group of Bauxites who keep putting Towers in the mix of "younger guyss."
Ohka turned 30 last March. Towers turns 30 in less than a month from now. They are essentially the same baseball age. It's true that Ohka has more big league innings on his arm "mileage," 943-619, but I don't think it's fair to lump Towers in with that group.
Again, that's not just you doing that -- I am seeing it consistently in a number of threads. Towers is not one of the young guys. If Marcum wins 14 games, it's a young guy coming through, unexpectedly. If Towers wins 14, it's a veteran making a bounceback, again unexpectedly.
Before signing Ohka, the Jays were essentially counting on either a) Josh Towers bouncing back or b) one of the unproven young 'uns establishing himself as a major league starter. While both of these things could very well happen, I'd rather not be depending on it. (And even this is assuming that John Thomson is going to bounce back and chip in with 25-30 competent starts. That's also something that could very well happen, but I wouldn't want to be counting on it either.)
And you have to like Ohka's perspective on the whole thing. If the market sucks for me this winter, fine. I'll take a one-year deal, have a good season, and create a better market next year.
And would seem to be a good indication that he thinks he's pretty healthy.
I can buy that Marcum is better, but not Janssen. Casey was getting hit hard in Toronto, and he wasn't that hot down in Syracuse. I'd rather he spend at least half a season in Syracuse before he comes back to TO. (Unless they're facing the Angels, anyway)
Ohka's only a bad move if he's obviouly unhealthy and/or ineffective in spring training and the Jays stick with him anyway.
But, here's the evidence that Janssen is a better bet than Ohka (or Thomson). His peripheral statistics, walk rate/ground ball rate/K rate, both in Toronto last year and in Syracuse, are consistent with an ERA in the low 4s in the Skydome. As you can see, that is not out of line with the rest of his minor league career. His major stumbling block last year was his performance with runners on, both in Syracuse and in Toronto. With runners on first in Toronto, batters hit .373/.413/.644.
Most projection systems (here's Marcel) have him at an ERA of about 4.5 for 2007, with peripheral statistics to match. I would probably mark him down for a little higher than that, in light of the difficulty with runners on. But, he's a very good bet to be under 5. Not so with Ohka. it's easy to forget the importance of the league adjustments, and the impact of injury.
**Ohka's only a bad move if he's obviouly unhealthy and/or ineffective in spring training and the Jays stick with him anyway. **
I believe you are saying that signing him is not a bad move, but playing him might be... that is an assessment I agree with
"I voted OK, but that's really a short form. Poor move if Ohka starts the season in the rotation. Excellent move if he starts in Syracuse."
I voted OK because I think it's likely to be such a minor move that it hardly matters. Spring Training will be interesting for pitchers 3-5. (If Burnett stays healthy all spring). What if Chacin gets lit up all spring and Marcum looks great? Etc...I don't think any of these guys should have a lock on a job.
And I forgot that Towers was that old - thanks for the heads up!
The Ohka signing is a good move not only for depth reasons. Suppose the pen opens with Ryan, League, Frasor, Downs, Accardo, Tallet, Romero/Rosario. The set in stone starters are Doc/AJ/Chacin(any of y'all who are doubting Chacin must note that in his 300 or so innings as a Jay, he has done enough to suffice at least an April's worth of starts if he does struggle...we owe the team that mcuh). The competition between Towers, Thomson, and Ohka will allow the Jays to have a rotation of Janssen, Marcum, McGowan, Taubenheim, Purcey (throw in Banks and who ever loses from the former 3) in AAA for at least a month. Then surely, if someone performs exceptionally - and more importantly is ready - then may the best pitcher land a spot on the big club's rotation.
Sounds like a good move to me!
I voted that this was a bad signing. That is because I think he will perform poorly. 4.82 ERA with a poor K rate in the NL transfers to the AL East and Skydome's park factor. Remember, we're trying to be a playoff team so no matter what he costs, if he sucks and we loose games when he pitches it sets us back.