Among those not listed for age reasons are the two active 300-game winners, Roger Clemens (340, 41) and Greg Maddux (317, 38), as well as David Wells (225, 41), Kevin Brown (211, 39) and Jamie Moyer (204, 41). No other active pitcher has reached 200 wins; Pedro Martinez, who is on the ballot, is next at 197, with Curt Schilling hobbling to 191.

While the voters appear to be leaning heavily toward the kid King Felix, let me say this, in all honesty -- in 1985, as a sophomore in college, if you had told me Doc Gooden WOULDN'T win 300 games, I would have laughed in your face and replied something like "Oh, you think he'll win 400?"

The smart vote is with the victories in hand, meaning Pedro or Moose. That said, I must not be very smart because I voted for Buehrle, who I think will end up in Glavine territory before he's done -- at least.

I think Buehrle's a smart vote too, although Pedro gets my ballot (he's got 113 more wins, and he's only six years older.) But Buehrle was worked fairly hard as a young pitcher with no ill effects as far as I can see. So maybe he's just One of Those Guys, and he'll roll along like this until he's 40.

I voted for Hernandez. Mick and Mags are right that the odds are against him being a great pitcher for 15-18 years. I'd put them at 30-70 or so. But if he is, he'll win this contest. Most of the other guys have a shot too, and if you split the chances among them, King Felix in my view has the best shot. The last 2 pitchers that I liked this much upon arrival were Gooden and Clemens.

I might handicap them: Hernandez-30%, Mussina-20%, Martinez-20%, Pettite-15%, Halladay-5%, Oswalt-5%, Buehrle-5%, Santana-5%. That's obviously rough.

I honestly don't understand anyone voting for Hernandez - granted, the kid's something special, but fer chrissakes, he's only 19! Any number of million things could happen to him, from tendinitis to Gooden-eque problems to getting hit by a bus. Give him another three or four years to determine if he's for real or not.

My vote is with Oswalt, Buehrle or Pedro.

I think C.C. Sabathia should be on the list.

He's 24 and has 68 wins.

Actually, Jim, the last guy I cut from the list was Dontrelle Willis, who is 23 and tonight won his 46th career game ... but I can see the argument for Sabathia. I guess having seen him pitch, I think he's going to hurt himself, bes case Sam McDowell, worst case LaMarr Hoyt. You know?

If Hernandez stays healthy and his current work is any indication of what he's going to be doing for the next 16 seasons, he's got my vote 100%. What a snag Seattle got.

The puzzling thing in the voting is the lack of support for Mussina. For Santana, Oswalt or Halladay to catch him at age 35, they'll need to average 19-20 wins a season for the next 7-8 seasons. That is pretty unlikely, especially because each has had some arm concerns.

Also not making the list: Ted Lilly (29, 43).

Just for the record.

I thought about Sabathia because of his early pace and he might spend the next 4-5 years on a team that wins 90+ games - he might not have to pitch that well to win 15-16 games a year.

Certainly he's an injury risk, but I'd take his pace over at least 4 or 5 other guys on the list.