I'd love the 105 wins but somehow doubt that. 99+ has happened only once in Blue Jay history (1985 - 99 wins on the nose).

If (big if) the starting pitching is for real that we've been seeing from the various candidates then a mid-90's win total could easily happen. If I had money on it I'd probably go for 82-86 but I'm a fan and went for 92-98.

Think Towers has a Cy Young bonus in his contract? :)

I think that the difference between an 81 win season and an 88 win season may be the continued offensive strength of several young Jays (especially Johnson and Rios) as well as the teams luck in avoiding the big injuries.  The difference between an 88 win season and a 95+ win season might be a strong start, especially from the rotation, followed by a stronger trade (I'm thinking shortstop).

This is my first post, and after I read all the rules, I hope I am not hunted down. I voted for the Jays to have 92-98 wins.

I think the Jays have to beat the easy pickings this year. For me, I knew the season was over in 2006 after the Jays series in KC in July, where JP called out Hillenbrand, Wells, and Glaus. That was a series where the Jays have to take 3/4, but they only manged to split the series.

I have argued with some Red Sox fans that the Jays do have an improved team this year. I think Frank Thomas makes a world of difference. Glaus went 20 games in Aug/Sept without an RBI. I'm not sure if this was attributed to an injury, but getting that kind of production is not going to help your team win games. The Jays now have 3 100+ RBI guys in the 3,4,5 spots. I also like Thomas' approach at the plate. He doesn't strike out much for a power hitter and he takes his share of walks.

I have Burnett pegged for 15+ wins and I think Halladay will do about the same. I'm not sold on Chacin or Towers, but I am excited from the news I am hearing about Ohka and Zambrano. I think Tallet, League (when he's ready) Frasor, Downs and Ryan comprise a pretty good bullpen.

I do have a number of question marks about this season. Can Reed Johnson play every day? Will Burnett overcome physical/mental problems and become an ace. Can Royce Clayton get the job done? Will Gibbons fight another player? Can the Jays play .500 or better on the road? Will Halladay have an injury free season?

I am looking forward to the season and to discussing the Jays with this forum. Thank you.

No hunting on this website, ahitisahit. 

Your comments are welcome.  We are not a "forum" though.  Authors (including pinch-hits from other Bauxites) put in substantial effort on what might be called the "above-line" portion of the blog, and we hope that the comments have the same care applied.

PECOTA has the Jays at 79-83.  I'll take the over on that too.

Looking online at BP they had the Jays last year as 79-83, just 2 games ahead of the Orioles. PECOTA vs reality for 2006...
Yankees - 94 vs 97
Red Sox - 93 vs 86
Jays - 79 vs 87
Orioles - 77 vs 70
D-Rays - 69 vs 61

So they were between 3 and 8 wins off. If you just took the 2005 standings the spreads would've been between 1 and 9 games or really no worse than PECOTA.

PECOTA seems to be a system that is extra complicated and doesn't really provide any more valid results than just taking the last 3 years (ML Equiv mixed in for minor league stats) and weighting them to estimate this years production. Perhaps I'm wrong, but that is how I see it.

You are wrong.  It does more than that and is more accurate than what you describe.  However, you are right that just doing what you describe does do 80+% of the job.  So if you didn't have PECOTA the simple stuff is a good estimate.  If you do have PECOTA it is better than the simple stuff.

Michael, I'm aware of studies of the accuracy of PECOTA's hitting projections (very good overall) and pitching projections (not as good), but not of PECOTA's W-L projections.  Can you point me to a study?