Three games left. Most pleasantly surprising Jay stat in 2006?
| Molina 19 homers |  8 (4.49%) |
| Johnson .319 BA | 48 (26.97%) |
| Hill 27 doubles | 4 (2.25%) |
| Ryan 0.87 WHIP | 19 (10.67%) |
| Halladay 220 IP | 3 (1.69%) |
| Lilly 15 wins | 19 (10.67%) |
| League 2.53 ERA | 64 (35.96%) |
| Other (specify) | 13 (7.30%) |
That's funny Rob -- I almost included that as one of the options, but without looking up his historical stats, decided 70 or so XBH really wasn't a "surprise" from Overbay. Guess I was wrong!
Troy Glaus, 37 HR?
Lyle Overbay, 46 doubles?
I think these accomplishments rank up there too, although I really love Brandon League.
Brandon League fun fact of the day: League has allowed only 16 fly balls in 42.2 innings
Also surprising, to me:
Rios 859 OPS
Zaun 470 SLG
Downs 4.16 ERA
Tallet 3.98 ERA
Hinske 865 OPS
And also notable: Catalanotto 429 AB. Is it time to drop the injury-prone tag?
| Actual | PECOTA | ||
| Molina | 19 | HR | 9 |
| Johnson | .319 | AVG | .264 |
| Hill | 27 | 2B | 27 |
| Ryan | 0.87 | WHIP | 1.12 |
| Halladay | 220 | IP | 184 |
| Lilly | 15 | W | 8 |
| League | 2.53 | ERA | 5.53 |
| Overbay | 69 | XBH | 52 |
| Overbay | 46 | 2B | 32 |
| Rios | 859 | OPS | 755 |
| Rios | 17 | HR | 11 |
| Johnson | 869 | OPS | 702 |
| Zaun | .470 | SLG | .382 |
| Downs | 4.16 | ERA | 4.95 |
| Tallet | 3.98 | ERA | 5.51 |
| Hinske | 865 | OPS | 765 |
And by that you mean.... what?
If you're saying it produces a lot of predictions that an astute fan can spot as highly unlikely, I agree. But it is an entirely objective system, and is one of if not the best of its kind. Maybe you just don't like its kind.
I'm actually not a huge fan of it myself, mostly because I think Baseball Prospectus severely oversells its capabilities.
I'm suspicious of expected standings too, because it averages theortically what would happen. Wouldn't it be more accurate HERE to use how historical seasons have played out (kind of like win expectancy), or maybe I just understand the stat wrong.
But I like VORP, WARP, EQA and other of there main stats.
But now that I think about it, I'm voting for Rios making the all-star team. Is that a stat?
I do have to say though that after the first month and a half of play, I was worried about Hill. Guess not...
Both Lilly and Burnett have career 59-58 records, though Lilly is almost exactly 1 year older.
I voted Other.
John Macdonald
3 Hr's ..including a grand salami
At the last game of the season, the video board did a Top 10 Moments of 2006. Perhaps NFH or JBrum or whomever else was here Monday could fill in the blanks, but some of them I recall:
- 10: Can't remember
- 9: JMac's Fielding Percentage
- 8: Can't Remember
- 7: Overbay's 69 XBH
- 6: Can't Remember
- 5: BJ Ryan's 37+ saves
- 4: Vernon's Three Homer Game
- 3: Can't Remember
- 2: Vernon's 10th inning homer against Rivera
- 1: The Fans (cheesy, but oh well. It was Fan Appreciation Day after all)
I'm nothing that even resembles an expert on anything, much less PECOTA, but it would seem like PECOTA would be a useful tool in identifying established Major Leaguers probable statistics, like a Tigers fan would use it to forecast Kenny Rogers' statistics this year. It probably wouldn't tell us a heck of alot if we wanted to know what Rios, or League, or even Overbay would do this year. That's for the baseball gods to decide. So in that sense, I'm not shocked that alot of players didn't resemble their projections at all.
8 - Bengie Molina's triple
6 - Roy Halladay, 16-5, 3.19
3 - Aaron Hill's walkoff HR against Tampa
didn't Benji have an infield hit in the same game he had a triple?
I voted for Brandon, but as for other surprising stats - I am astonished every time Tallet throws a strike....I'm not sure how he does it, and I think he's a surprised as me (though he hides it well). Seriously, seeing his ERA under 4.00 is astounding.
On a side note, I get the impression that when Gibby pulls a lefty starter early in a game (like last night), he tends to go for a lefty reliever, instead of putting a righty in. I would prefer a righty because early in a game, the opposing manager is less likely to reverse his platoons and waste his bench. Is there any logic to this? Has anybody else noticed?
And while we're on the subject, is Janssen shut down? Thought he'd be in the long-relief mix.