If Johnson falls short of 300 -- he won't -- and then walks into the Hall of Fame -- he would! -- the Kaat, Blyleven and John crowds would go apesh!t. Of course, Johnson is the best of those four by a long margin and I happen to think all four should be in the Hall, but if he ends up at 289 or something, it might actually help  those guys get in.

I think Johnson will get to 300 sometime in 2008.  Considering that not a single pitcher won 20 games in 2006, I'm not going out on a limb by predicting that RJ won't win 20 in 2007 (though if he stays with the Yankees, he'll have at least a shot at it. 

After Johnson and Glavine reach 300, we may not see another 300-game winner for quite a long time.  Mussina has 239, but I doubt that he has 4 or 5 good years left.   

After that?  Take a look at the "active leaderboard" (below).  All of the guys at 200 or above are 40+ (or close to it).  Pedro "supposedly" is 34, but he looks like he is in his late 30s, and certainly doesn't have 6 or 7 good years left in him to reach 300.

1. Roger Clemens (43) 348 R 2. Greg Maddux (40) 333 R 3. Tom Glavine* (40) 290 L 4. Randy Johnson* (42) 280 L 5. Mike Mussina (37) 239 R 6. David Wells* (43) 230 L 7. Jamie Moyer* (43) 216 L 8. Kevin Brown (41) 211 R 9. Kenny Rogers* (41) 207 L   Curt Schilling (39) 207 R 11. Pedro Martinez (34) 206 R 12. John Smoltz (39) 193 R 13. Andy Pettitte* (34) 186 L 14. Al Leiter* (40) 162 L 15. Tim Wakefield (39) 151 R 16. Brad Radke (33) 148 R 17. Aaron Sele (36) 145 R 18. Scott Erickson (38) 142 R 19. Bartolo Colon (33) 140 R 20. Mike Hampton* (33) 138 L RankPlayer (age) WinsThrows 21. Steve Trachsel (35) 134 R 22. Tom Gordon (38) 130 R   Kirk Rueter* (35) 130 L 24. Pedro Astacio (36) 129 R 25. Jason Schmidt (33) 127 R 26. Jon Lieber (36) 126 R 27. Terry Mulholland* (43) 124 L   Woody Williams (39) 124 R 29. Livan Hernandez (31) 123 R   Esteban Loaiza (34) 123 R   Kevin Millwood (31) 123 R   Hideo Nomo (37) 123 R

 

The younger "elite pitchers":

JOHAN SANTANA is 27, and has 78 wins.

ROY HALLADAY is 29, and has 95 wins.

CHRIS CARPENTER is 31, and has 100 wins.

BARRY ZITO is 28 and has 102 wins.

ROY OSWALT is 28, and has 98 wins

For the younger crowd it will be hard.  Zito has the most wins at 102 and is 2nd youngest (Santana would have to win 24 next year to catch Zito).  If Zito won 20 games a year for his full 7 year contract then he'd be at 242 wins and still need 58 more after the age of 35.  Similar for all of the guys on the list.  It could happen for one of Santana, Halladay, Zito or Oswalt but odds are against it.

Personally I figure we have a better shot at a 400 game winner than seeing another 300 (outside of Glavine and Johnson) in the next 10 years.  400 being Clemens (52 away, or 3 good seasons or 4 decent ones, pitching to 47) or Maddux (67 away, or 4 at 17 wins, 5 at 14 wins thus pitching until 45).  Now that would be fun to watch, the two of them going at it to see who the 3rd 400 game winner will be.  Never thought I'd see anyone with a real shot at it, but now there are two with at least a possibility even if it is a slim one.

If Johnson falls short of 300 -- he won't -- and then walks into the Hall of Fame -- he would! -- the Kaat, Blyleven and John crowds would go apesh!t.

Nice strawman you've got there.  Why would any Blyleven supporter, or anyone for that matter, get upset over the Big Unit going into the Hall?  He's one of the best lefties of his generation, maybe even of all time no matter how many wins he finishes with.  As you recognize, he's clearly better than any of those pitchers.  Nor do I think him getting in would help anyone else out: he's obviously better than Kaat, Bert, or John so it's not like a voter would say "I let Randy in the hall with <300, so Bert / Tommy / Jim has to go in too."  Besides that, Randy wants to pitch two more years.  The fates of Kaat, Blyleven and John will be decided by the writers six years from now when Randy hits the ballot.