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Fun With Numbers

Phelps' Power is Off the Charts

Robert's debut article at Batter's Box. In it he formally introduced a measure of a batter's power which he called Manifested Power. Since then, he has incorporated it fully into his player analysis.

Felipe Lopez, Star in Waiting?

Perhaps no trade by J.P. Ricciardi was as heavily criticized in some corners as the four-way deal that brought Jason Arnold and J.F. Griffin to the Jays. Some thought that we had just traded away a potential franchise player. There's no doubt that Lopez' minor league career through 2002 was very impressive, but there were many questions about his work ethic. 2003 was a disaster for F-Lop. He's still young enough top bounce back, but he's now in a position where he has to convince the Reds he's worth a opportunity.

What Can We Expect From Vernon Wells?

Superstardom is what we got. Wells took solid steps forward to rival Carlos Delgado and Roy Halladay as the best player on the team. In this piece, Robert formulated a comparison group using home-made similarity scores. He'll have to repeat this study and come up with a new comparison group.

Howie Clark

A brief look at a career minor leaguer who was called up when Eric Hinske went on the disabled list. Howie is a good contact hitter who can play second and third reasonably well.

Chad Tracy

The first profile of a non-Jay. A prospect in the Diamondbacks organisation who caught Robert's eye. Tracy is a Mark Grace type hitter (without all the walks) - hits line drives and doesn't strike out much. He doesn't have much power and likely won't develop into a bona fide power hitter, but he'll be a useful major leaguer if: 1) he can hit in the .280-.300 range and 2) handle third base.

The New Walking Man

We've all soured on Kevin Youkilis because of his struggles at AAA. On the other hand, if he rebounds this year he could still carve out a career as a .380 OBP leadoff hitter if an organisation is willing to overlook his lack of speed.

Bonds or Pujols - Who's the Most Valuable?

Written in late August, but the balance of the numbers stayed pretty much the same for the rest of the year. Bonds won the award, most likely his team making the playoffs being the difference.

Morgan and Those who Followed

A look at Hall of Fame voting, Joe Morgan and the great second baseman we've seen since.

The Minors Dissected

Are MLEs Over-Optimistic?

Some thoughts on how we might construct minor-league equivalencies (MLEs) appropriately, using Reed Johnson as a test case. Robert considers Tangotiger, whose work can be reached from Baseball Primer's Primate Studies section, to be an invaluable resource to those interested in this subject.

Pulaski Roundup

The first of a series that was discontinued after one chapter. Robert defers to Jordan and John Neary's excellent analysis of the Blue Jays' minor league system.

The Best Minor League Pitching Prospects Are ...

A description of a new performance-based rating system of prospects Robert developed in late 2003. The system focuses on evaluating core skills and mapping pitchers' current skill level and expected development from professional neophyte to big league superstar. He hopes to refine the system over the coming years.

Speed Scores for Minor Leaguers

Similar concept to that used by Bill James. Because of the absence of easily downloadable minor league fielding stats, Robert uses speed scores to adjust position factors for hitting prospects.

Parks Factored

Mid-Season 2003

All-Star Break 2003

Park-Adjusted Ranking of AL Starting Rotations

2003 End of Season General Park Factors

Odds and Ends

Which Jays Like the Home Cooking

A look at the how Jays regulars have faiured home and away in Skydome from 1990-2002

Griffin Does a Hatchet Job on SABR

A strong reaction to Richard Griffin's ridiculously ignorant characterisation of the venerable Society of American Baseball Research (SABR).

The Szymborski-Dudek Diamond Mind Simulation, 1st edition

The Szymborski-Dudek Diamond Mind Simulation, 2nd edition

Dan Szymborski of Baseball Primer has graciously shared his ZiPS projections for 2004 in a DMB file. Robert constructed detailed manager profiles and simulated 15 seasons based on roster composition at the time.

The Kansas City Athletics Futility Score

A new measure of baseball wretchedness, named in honour of Bill James' boyhood favourites.

Last Updated Wednesday, January 11 2006 @ 11:41 AM EST View Printable Version