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In a recent thread a Batter's Box regular made the comment:
    of course, we wouldn't even be having this discussion if Russ Adams hadn't turned out to be so terribly, terribly underwhelming, especially relative to his draft position.

Which lead a number of us to wonder how much we should expect from a mid 1st round draft pick. In "Has Russ Adams Been A Disappointment?" Craig Burley compared Adams to other players taken in the middle of the first round of 2002's draft. I thought I'd take a different approach.

I decided to look at how 14th overall draftpicks have performed in the past. I decided to examine 30 14th overall draftpicks from the 1965 to 1994 period. The draft began in 1965 so it was a natural starting point, while 1994 was chosen because it was ten years ago, so we only consider established major leaguers. Plus everyone loves round numbers, so a 30 year period seemed appropriate.

Methodology

I looked at the performance of each player during his first six major league seasons. I defined a player's first season as the season he first recorded a career level of 100 major-league at-bats or 50 major-league innings pitched. This was as not to punish players who were September call-ups. I chose the 6 year cut-off for two reasons:

  1. Some of the players in the sample are still active so we do not have a complete career record for them.

  2. More importantly, we care how a draft-pick (say Russ Adams) performs for the Jays. If Adams has six killer seasons then signs a big money contract with the Red Sox, his performance for the Sox doesn't help the Jays any. Since players become major league free agents after 6 full seasons of major league service, this number was a natural.


In order to measure the player's 6 year performance, I chose to look at the WARP3 statistic. WARP or "Wins Above Replacement Player" is defined as "the number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done" (Source: Baseball Prospectus). The 3 just indicates that the stat has been adjusted for league difficulty and for shortened seasons. It's a cumulative counting stat like Runs or RBI, so players who have played more games and seasons should have a higher WARP3.

To get an idea of the WARP3 scale, here are the career marks of some Blue Jays players:

Josh Phelps - 5.4 WARP3 over 2 seasons
Chris Woodward - 7.1 WARP3 over 4 seasons
Dave Berg - 8.0 WARP3 over 6 seasons
Eric Hinske - 8.9 WARP3 over 2 seasons
Vernon Wells - 15.0 WARP3 over 3 seasons
Frank Catalanotto - 16.6 WARP3 over 6 seasons

To aid in the comparison, I created 5 groups to divide the 30 players into:

Group 1 - Never Reached The Majors
Group 2 - Less Than 5.0 WARP3 in first 6 seasons
Group 3 - Between 5.0 and 9.9 WARP3 in first 6 seasons
Group 4 - Between 10.0 and 19.9 WARP3 in first 6 seasons
Group 5 - 20.0 or more WARP3 in first 6 seasons

The Groups

Group 1 - Never Reached The Majors

9 Players of 30 = 30%. Average WARP3 = 0.0
Year	Player	        POSN	TEAM	Games	WARP
1966 Rick Konik 1B DET 0 0.0
1967 Phil Meyer P PHI 0 0.0
1970 Charles Maxwell 3B WAS 0 0.0
1974 Ted Shipley SS MIN 0 0.0
1976 Tim Glass C CLE 0 0.0
1979 Joe Lansford 1B SDP 0 0.0
1980 Tim Maki P TEX 0 0.0
1983 Rich Stoll P MON 0 0.0
1986 Greg McMurtry OF BOS 0 0.0

PSN stands for the position the player was drafted at (and not necessarily played in the majors), TEAM was the team that drafted him, GAMES were the number of games he played in the majors up to and including the 2003 season, and WARP is the WARP3 he recorded in the first six seasons of his major league career.

Most of the players in this section were from the early years of the draft. In fact every 14th overall pick from 1987-1998 has made the major leagues.

Group 2 - Cup of Coffee / Journeyman

7 Players of 30 = 23%. Average WARP3 = 1.2
Year	Player	        POSN	TEAM	Games	WARP
1971 Rich Puig 2B NYM 4 -0.2
1975 Bo McLaughlin P HOU 156 -0.2
1989 Steve Hosey OF SFG 24 0.1
1968 Rich McKinney SS CWS 341 1.1
1977 Ricky Adams SS HOU 120 1.2
1984 John Marzano C BOS 301 3.3
1981 Jim Winn P PIT 161 3.4


I have a number of rookie cards of Steve Hosey, so I remember him well. The best player on this list is probably long-time Red Sox back-up catcher John Marzano. To put these WARP3 figures in context, Eric Hinske has a 2.5 WARP3 for this season alone.

Group 3 - Decent Major Leaguers

4 Players of 30 = 13%. Average WARP3 = 8.5
Year	Player	        POSN	TEAM	Games	WARP
1990 Todd Van Poppel P OAK 325 6.1
1992 Ron Villone P SEA 351 8.6
1965 Alan Gallagher 3B SFG 446 9.4
1987 Cris Carpenter P STL 291 9.8


The first 6 seasons of Todd Van Poppel's career were spent as a very struggling starter and not as a relief pitcher. I've never heard of Alan Gallagher and only vaguely remember Cris Carpenter. Dave Berg who recorded at 8.0 WARP3 in his first 6 seasons would fit right in with this group.

Group 4 - Good Major Leaguers

3 Players of 30 = 10%. Average WARP3 = 13.0
Year	Player	        POSN	TEAM	Games	WARP
1985 Tommy Greene P ATL 125 10.0
1991 Cliff Floyd OF MON 1111 10.4
1982 Ron Karkovice C CWS 945 18.6


Tommy Greene had two good seasons, recording a 4.7 WARP3 in 1991 and a 5.2 WARP3 in 1993. Cliff Floyd spent a lot of time on the DL in his first few seasons, hence the low WARP3.

Group 5 - Very Good/Great Major Leaguers

7 Players of 30 = 23%. Average WARP3 = 26.5
Year	Player	        POSN	TEAM	Games	WARP
1972 Scott McGregor P NYY 362 22.0
1969 Don Gullett P CIN 286 25.0
1988 Tino Martinez 1B SEA 1748 26.3
1994 Jason Varitek OF SEA 754 26.9
1973 Lee Mazzilli OF NYM 1395 27.1
1993 Derrek Lee 1B SDP 905 28.2
1978 Tom Brunansky P ANA 1816 30.2


Here are the guys we all hope Russ Adams turns into. Note that less than 25% of the players in the sample turned into a very good/great player. Also note that Jason Varitek was drafted as an outfielder and Tom Brunansky was drafted as a pitcher!

Craig Burley wondered if the performance of 14th overall draft-picks have improved over time. To see, I broke the 30 years down into 6 distinct groups:

YEARS GROUP 1 GROUP 2 GROUP 3 GROUP 4 GROUP 5 AVGWARP3
65-69 2 1 1 0 1 7.10
70-74 2 1 0 0 2 9.78
75-79 2 2 0 0 1 6.24
80-84 2 2 0 1 0 5.06
85-89 1 1 1 1 1 9.24
90-94 0 0 2 1 2 16.04


Where GROUP1, GROUP2 etc. indicate the number of players in each group.

It would appear that since 1985 the performance of 14th overall picks has improved. I think the stellar performance of the 1990 to 1994 group will be somewhat of an outlier and is not a general trend. Consider the performance of 14th overall picks in the 1995-1999 period:
Year	Player	        POSN	TEAM	Games	WARP	SEASONS
1995 Reggie Taylor OF PHI 289 1.4 2
1996 Dee Brown OF KCR 204 -0.5 4
1997 Brandon Larson SS CIN 91 0.3 1
1998 Jeff Weaver P DET 174 26.0 5
1999 Ty Howington P CIN 0 0.0 0

The 1995-1999 class appears that it will rival the 1975-1979 for futility. SEASONS indicates the number of seasons each player has played, so there is still time for all of these players to add to their WARP3 totals.

Conclusion

The average 14th overall draftpick records a WARP3 level of 8.9 in his first 6 seasons, a level only slightly higher than the performance of Dave Berg in his first six seasons. While many expect that a 14th overall draftpick will become a very good or great major leaguer, only 23% of the players in this sample reached that level. Scouts may be getting better at identifying first round talent but with this sample size, it's hard to tell. To get a better idea, we'll need to examine the performance of other mid 1st round level draftpicks.

14th Overall Draftpicks Since 1965

Year	Player	        POSN	TEAM	Games	WARP
1965 Alan Gallagher 3B SFG 446 9.4
1966 Rick Konik 1B DET 0 0.0
1967 Phil Meyer P PHI 0 0.0
1968 Rich McKinney SS CWS 341 1.1
1969 Don Gullett P CIN 286 25.0
1970 Charles Maxwell 3B WAS 0 0.0
1971 Rich Puig 2B NYM 4 -0.2
1972 Scott McGregor P NYY 362 22.0
1973 Lee Mazzilli OF NYM 1395 27.1
1974 Ted Shipley SS MIN 0 0.0
1975 Bo McLaughlin P HOU 156 -0.2
1976 Tim Glass C CLE 0 0.0
1977 Ricky Adams SS HOU 120 1.2
1978 Tom Brunansky P ANA 1816 30.2
1979 Joe Lansford 1B SDP 0 0.0
1980 Tim Maki P TEX 0 0.0
1981 Jim Winn P PIT 161 3.4
1982 Ron Karkovice C CWS 945 18.6
1983 Rich Stoll P MON 0 0.0
1984 John Marzano C BOS 301 3.3
1985 Tommy Greene P ATL 125 10.0
1986 Greg McMurtry OF BOS 0 0.0
1987 Cris Carpenter P STL 291 9.8
1988 Tino Martinez 1B SEA 1748 26.3
1989 Steve Hosey OF SFG 24 0.1
1990 Todd Van Poppel P OAK 325 6.1
1991 Cliff Floyd OF MON 1111 10.4
1992 Ron Villone P SEA 351 8.6
1993 Derrek Lee 1B SDP 905 28.2
1994 Jason Varitek OF SEA 754 26.9
1995 Reggie Taylor OF PHI 289 1.4
1996 Dee Brown OF KCR 204 -0.5
1997 Brandon Larson SS CIN 91 0.3
1998 Jeff Weaver P DET 174 26.0
1999 Ty Howington P CIN 0 0.0
2000 Beau Hale P BAL 0 0.0
2001 Jake Gautreau IF SDP 0 0.0
2002 Russ Adams SS TOR 0 0.0
2003 Ryan Wagner P CIN 17 0.0
2004 Billy Butler 3B KCR 0 0.0


Your thoughts?
What Can We Expect From a 14th Overall Draft Pick? | 40 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Pistol - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#36739) #
Interesting stuff Mike. Nice job.

16 out of 30 were nothing more than a 'cup of coffee'. I thought I read somewhere that 1st rounders were a 50/50 bet at best to make any kind of impact in the majors, and this would support that.
_Daryn - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#36740) #
I would think at the level of the 14th pick a certain amount of filling need would take place.. the sample size would triple if the 13th, 14th and 15th picks were chosen to study.. any idea what would happen to the results?
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#36741) #
When the "best" player is Tom Brunansky, a career .245/.327/.434 outfielder, who had his last real work at age 31, it's quite a miserable pool. Of course, Varitek and Derrek Lee are likely to end up with significantly higher numbers.

Nicely done, Moffatt.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#36742) #
if the 13th, 14th and 15th picks were chosen to study.. any idea what would happen to the results?

Unfortunately I have no idea whatsoever. Seriously. :)

I plan on looking at some of those in the future. I'm going to do each one independently but it'd be easy enough to combine the results.

Since Aaron Hill was drafted 13th overall I'll probably look at that next. I may also look at the 6th overall pick, as that's where the Jays might be drafting next year.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#36743) #
When the "best" player is Tom Brunansky, a career .245/.327/.434 outfielder, who had his last real work at age 31, it's quite a miserable pool.

Because I looked at only the first 6 years of a player's career, guys who flamed out in their late 20s like Brunansky and Gullett look relatively better.

Of course, Varitek and Derrek Lee are likely to end up with significantly higher numbers.

Don't forget Tino Martinez, who has a career WARP3 of 69.9. This system rightfully ignores longevity, as Tino isn't doing much to help the Mariners nowadays. :)
_Scott - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#36744) #
How would this work if you look at it backwards. If you take the top 100 current players and look at the distribution of when they were drafted. How accurate is the drafting mechanism in baseball and has it gotten any better over the years.
Thomas - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#36745) #
Nice job Mike. Back when I was about 11 years old I attended a baseball camp for a week where John Marzano was one of the instructors. He autographed one of my old gloves which is lying around somewhere.

This only confirms what I had read and suspected, which Pistol spoke about, that first round picks are still a touch-and-go business.

Gautreau is doing well in Portland (AAA) right now. Earlier in the season he was hitting .259/.351/.462 in Mobile (AA). However, in a full season in Mobile last year he hit .242/.324/.393.

Beau Hale hasn't pitched in the minors since 2002, when he had a 5.02 ERA for Frederickton (A).

Ty Howington must have injured himself this year, because he hasn't pitched in the minors either. In 2003 he had a 3.53 ERA in Potomac of the Carolina League.

The 14th pick is much more of a crapshoot than many realise. JP wanted someone with a very good chance to make the majors, and a good chance to become a useful player, and that's what Adams is.
Joe - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#36746) #
http://me.woot.net
I guess this puts the damper on people who say that Adams will be a disappointment based on his draft position. Most people, and I say this having done absolutely no studies, would agree that Adams projects to be a decent major leaguer, one who will hopefully have a somewhat productive career. This "disappointment," though, puts him ahead of more than half of his 14th round colleagues. I don't see how someone who is better than the median can be a disappointment.
robertdudek - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#36747) #
I don't see how someone who is better than the median can be a disappointment.

It's simple. Most people don't know what they are talking about, but like to spout off about it anyway. Russ Adams has been a disappointment to them, therefore he's been a "disappointment", analysis be damned.
_G.T. - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#36748) #
Have there been fundamental changes in the draft in the past 30 years? (I honestly don't know, though Canadians weren't draft eligible until recently...) If so, I'm not sure how relevant the performance of a pick from 25 years ago is in terms of figuring what should be expected from a similar pick today.

Not trying to disparage what you've done, Mike, but I'd think that looking at, say, the 12th-16th picks from the last six years (or a recent six-year period) would've been even more useful.

(The findings are interesting, and certainly answer the question of what 14th picks have done, but I don't think they answer the question I think is more relevant -- What should we expect from a 14th overall pick today?)
_A - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#36749) #
I have no idea what this would show but just to put everything into perspective, it might also be useful to take a look at the progression of first round picks.

I'm not sure it's particularly relevant because we're dealing with the 14th pick in the draft, but part of the study is taken pre-expansion.
Pistol - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#36750) #
I plan on looking at some of those in the future. I'm going to do each one independently but it'd be easy enough to combine the results.

Since Aaron Hill was drafted 13th overall I'll probably look at that next. I may also look at the 6th overall pick, as that's where the Jays might be drafting next year.


Obviously there's a time element involved here which is probably the limiting factor, but I think it might be more telling if you broke the draft up into groups instead of just looking at a single pick. Something like chopping the first round into thirds (top 10, 11-20, 21-30).

Perhaps pouring through past drafts (looking at all rounds and years) is a good off-season project.

Of course, there may be a few studies out there that have looked at this already.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#36751) #
Have there been fundamental changes in the draft in the past 30 years? (I honestly don't know, though Canadians weren't draft eligible until recently...) If so, I'm not sure how relevant the performance of a pick from 25 years ago is in terms of figuring what should be expected from a similar pick today.

I don't have any reason to believe that mid 1st round draftpicks are more successful now than they were 30 years ago. If we do enough of these comparisons, though, we should get a pretty good idea. At any rate, I don't think it's something we can conclude off the bat.

Not trying to disparage what you've done, Mike, but I'd think that looking at, say, the 12th-16th picks from the last six years (or a recent six-year period) would've been even more useful.

I don't know if it would be any more useful. At the same time, I plan on looking at other slots in the draft, so consider this just the first of many steps.

Obviously there's a time element involved here which is probably the limiting factor, but I think it might be more telling if you broke the draft up into groups instead of just looking at a single pick. Something like chopping the first round into thirds (top 10, 11-20, 21-30).

I thought about doing this, but I wasn't sure how to divide the steps. I have a feeling Top 3 picks, for instance, will perform a lot better than picks from 4-10. Because of that creating a 1-10 group might be a bit misleading.

In the long term I'd like to do one of these for each of the first 20 picks. By doing that we'll have a better idea of what a more natural grouping should be.

Thanks for all the comments guys. 'Tis appreciated.
_Mick - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#36752) #
Tino isn't doing much to help the Mariners nowadays. :)

Except when they play the Devil Rays, of course.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#36753) #
http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/corbedo01.shtml
Actually, Mike, Brunansky was drafted by the Angels, and was traded with $400,000 in May, 1982 for Doug Corbett and Rob Wilfong. For those who weren't around at the time, Wilfong was a utility infielder, and Corbett was a relief pitcher cast in the closer role (COMN for his career statistics).

Brunansky gave the Twins a good year in his rookie year at age 21, and then 5 mediocre years (OBPs of .320, slugs of .450 from a slow corner outfielder). The deal ended up being little for little.

Brunansky and Phil Plantier ended up as poster boys for Bill James' theory that young ballplayers with "old player's skills"- low batting average, slow, good power and strike zone judgment- do not develop well as they age.
_DW - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#36754) #
There is, of course, a flipside to pick a safe pick like Adams/Hill - you lower your shot at getting a star. I don't mean this as an indictment of Riccardi's methods or saber-draft strategy in general, but it's a salient concern.

Howington and Hale are both hurt.

Also, you may want to consider excluding those who don't sign from the analysis.

Keep up the good work!
_Moffatt - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#36755) #
Also, you may want to consider excluding those who don't sign from the analysis.

Good point. I don't think there was anyone here who didn't sign, but I'm not 100% sure.

I've just looked at the 15th overall slot (where Gabe Gross was drafted). The results are quite a bit uglier: 60% didn't make it to the majors and 15th overall picks seem to be getting worse over time, not better. Jim Rice was selected 15th overall so it wasn't all bad.
_Brian B. - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#36756) #
Well, Roy Halladay was picked 17th overall in the 1995 draft.

Does that success come from a high school pick?

1995
First Round Draft Picks

# Selected By Name - Position- College or Hometown

1. Angels - Darin Erstad- OF- University of Nebraska
2. Padres - Ben Davis- C- Malvern, PA
3. Mariners - Jose Cruz, Jr.- OF- Rice University
4. Cubs - Kerry Wood- RHP- Grand Prairie, TX
5. Athletics - Ariel Prieto- RHP- Palm Springs, CA
6. Marlins- Jamie Jones- OF- San Diego, CA
7. Rangers- Jonathan Johnson- RHP- Florida State University
8. Rockies- Todd Helton- 1B- University of Tennessee
9. Brewers- Geoff Jenkins- OF- USC
10. Pirates- Chad Hermansen- SS- Henderson, NV
11. Tigers- Mike Drumright- RHP- Wichita State University
12. Cardinals- Matt Morris- RHP- Seton Hall University
13. Twins- Mark Redman- LHP- University of Oklahoma
14. Phillies- Reggie Taylor- OF- Newberry, SC
15. Red Sox- Andy Yount- RHP- Kingwood, TX
16. Giants- Joe Fontenot- RHP- Lafayette, LA
17. Blue Jays- Roy Halladay- RHP- Golden, CO
18. Mets- Ryan Jaroncyk- SS- Escondido, CA
19. Royals- Juan Lebron- OF- Arroyo, PR
20. Dodgers- David Yocum- LHP- Florida State University
21. Orioles- Alvie Shepherd- RHP- University of Nebraska
22. Astros- Tony McKnight- RHP- Texarkana, AR
23. Indians- David Miller- 1B- Clemson University
24. Red Sox- Corey Jenkins- OF- Columbia, SC
25. White Sox- Jeff Liefer- 3B- Long Beach State University
26. Braves- Chad Hutchinson- RHP- Encinitas, CA
27. Yankees- Shea Morenz- OF- University of Texas
28. Expos- Michael Barrett- SS- Pace Academy
_Moffatt - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#36757) #
Well, Roy Halladay was picked 17th overall in the 1995 draft.

Does that success come from a high school pick?


I'm not sure I understand your question/statement.

Nobody has ever suggested that 1st round highschool players can never become superstars. There are all kinds of players who have.

At the same time, I don't think Halladay became an ace pitcher because he never went to college.
_Brian B. - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#36758) #
Or how about the 1983 amateur draft:

1983
First Round Draft Picks

# Selected By- Name- Position- College or Hometown

1. Twins- Tim Belcher- RHP- Mt. Vernon Nazarene College
2. Reds- Kurt Stillwell- SS- Thousand Oaks, CA
3. Rangers- Jeff Kunkel- SS- Rider College
4. Mets- Eddie Williams- 3B- San Diego, CA
5. Athletics- Stan Hilton- RHP- Baylor University
6. Cubs- Jackie Davidson- RHP- Everman, TX
7. Mariners- Darrel Akerfelds- RHP- Mesa College
8. Astros- Robbie Wine- C- Oklahoma State University
9. Blue Jays- Matt Stark- C- Hacienda Heights, CA
10. Padres- Ray Hayward- LHP- Oklahoma University
11. Indians- Dave Clark- OF- Jackson State University
12. Pirates- Ron DeLucchi- OF- Moraga, CA
13. White Sox- Joel Davis- RHP- Jacksonville, FL
14. Expos- Rich Stoll- RHP- University of Michigan
15. Tigers- Wayne Dotson- RHP- Lubbock, TX
16. Expos- Brian Holman- RHP- Wichita, KA
17. Mariners- Terry Bell- C- Old Dominion University
18. Dodgers- Erik Sonberg- LHP- Wichita State University
19. Red Sox- Roger Clemens- RHP- University of Texas
20. Mets- Stan Jefferson- OF- Bethune-Cookman College
21. Royals- Gary Thurman- OF- Indianapolis, IN
22. Phillies- Ricky Jordan- 1B- Sacramento, CA
23. Angels- Mark Doran- OF- University of Wisconsin
24. Cardinals Jim Lindeman 3B Bradley University
25. Orioles Wayne Wilson RHP Redondo Beach, CA
26. Brewers Dan Plesac LHP North Carolina State University
_Brian B. - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#36759) #
I guess my question is: couldn't an excellent ball player come from anywhere in the first round (or later)?

Doesn't it depend on good scouting and good fortune?
_Moffatt - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#36760) #
I guess my question is: couldn't an excellent ball player come from anywhere in the first round (or later)?

Absolutely. A good ball player could come from the 63rd round.

It's all about percentages, though. You're more likely (though it's hard to say how much) to get a good player in the first round than you are in the 5th.

If I say "I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 5. Guess what it is?" you're a lot more likely to get it right than if I say "I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 100".

In both cases your getting the number right will depend on luck, but you're a lot more likely to be right under the first scenario. The draft is like that, with the first scenario being like Round 1, and the second like some later round.
Craig B - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#36761) #
I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 5. Guess what it is?

2.775
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#36762) #
Brian B,

What's amazing about the 1983 draft is not the names you've highlighted, but how few of the first round picks were any good. Wrong Jordan. Wrong Doran. Wrong Davis. Wrong Williams. Wrong Bell. You get the idea. There's Clemens, Plesac, and not much else. All right, Tim Belcher was OK.

The 2nd round was better, but the real cream arrived in the 9th round! Jeff Montgomery, Terry Steinbach, Glenallen Hill and Jay Buhner.
Pistol - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#36763) #
I may also look at the 6th overall pick, as that's where the Jays might be drafting next year.

Actually, based on winning percentage right now they'd be 4th.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#36764) #
2.775

Bzzzz.. WRONG. It was 2.7753
Craig B - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#36765) #
Man, I was miles away.
Gerry - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#36766) #
http://p086.ezboard.com/fsonsofsamhornfrm31
Over the winter there were a number of very interesting draft studies posted at "Sons of Sam Horn". COMN and scroll down to the bottom of the page to the posts by Philly Sox Fan.

Here are some of his conclusions:

1. Most drafts seem to produce 1-3 superstars, maybe another 12-15 "solid" to very good players and some random role players. I put solid in quotes becasue people can draw that line in radically different places. Is a 6-8 year average career good or easily replacable? How you answer that type of question will lead to how deep you think a draft really is. To me, it looks like somewhere in the 15-20 range most drafts really peter out. Not many folks would be psyched if their team produced the 21st best player from most of these drafts.

2. To use WS - or any career measure - you ideally need to have most of the players at least into early 30s. For whatver reason the 1987-1989 drafts were very heavily weighted to college players. As a result they were easy to score and I wouldn't expect those score to change all that much. With the 1990 draft the mix moved much, much more to an even 50/50 mix. That means there is a lot more variabilty scoring the 1990-1992 drafts. It would be pointless to score any further than that.

3. From those 1987-1989 drafts it looks like about 60-70% of a draft's value comes in the first 3 rounds. Maybe 15% in rds 4-10. Maybe 10% in rds 11-15. The rest scaterred through the rest of the draft. Just eyeballing the 1990s drafts it looks like the value has become even more concentrated in the first couple rounds. The area that has been hit the hardest has been rds 4-10 - especially for position players.


If you are interested in the draft these studies are worth reading.
Thomas - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#36767) #
Darn. Robbie Wine beats Matt Stark 6 career hits to 1, in the battle of the 1983 round 1 catching flops.
_R Billie - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#36768) #
I think when you look at some of the draft examples above, favouring certain players because of their position such as catcher or shortstop (Kurt Stillwell drafted second overall?) seems to be vastly overrated. What matters first and foremost seems to the raw hitting and pitching ability of the players involved though in some cases defence is a consideration also.

While it's interesting to look at how #14 picks have traditionally done or picks around #14 have traditionally done, that's very difficult to reconcile with every team's philosophical bias and signing resources. Maybe there were a handful of teams who would have loved to pick Russ Adams where he was picked. Maybe there were a handful of other teams who would not have picked him in the first three rounds and preferred to go with players who had the tools to be stars even if they were 'higher risks'.

So I think a problem is we're not looking at the consensus #14 pick in major league baseball but the #14 pick according to whomever happens to be drafting at that position in that particular year.

I also have problems with studies that say things like college middle infielders are the "safest" picks to make. You don't have a constant supply of quality college middle infielders and they won't always be the safest pick in relation to other commodities year in and year out.

Anyway, I think Adams would be a much more palatable pick if he were a second baseman because his throwing limitations would then be minimised. Then people could concentrate on him being a solid defensive infielder with some untapped offensive upside instead of a questionable shortstop without impact offensive skills.
_Smack - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#36769) #
That is exactly why drafting shortstops is safer. If they dont pan out at ss, they can probably play 3b or 2b. Generally the most athletic player plays ss. I hope Adams develops his defensive game because he is pretty much guaranteed to be atleast a .270/.350/.400 hitter.
_R Billie - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#36770) #
But then one could argue whether it was worth first round money to wait three years to get an Orlando Hudson level hitter with probably lesser defence. Yes guys like Cole Hamels got hurt but until he got hurt he was pitching like a future ace. I guess it all depends on whether you prefer the safe Orlando Hudson or the possible Halladay as guys like Hamel and McGowan and others could be.

Just for the record, I think Russ Adams will be fine for the Jays though I'm concerned about his arm at short. But I don't think it's cut and dry to say just because he is working out to some degree and others didn't that it was the best pick to make. Kerry Ligtenberg should have worked out but he didn't and guys like Jose Mesa are having much better years. That doesn't necessarily mean that Mesa was the better investment at the time.
robertdudek - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#36771) #
Did you see Mesa pitch yesterday? Brutal. I've seem him blow up a couple of other times this year and I don't really watch the Pirates much. That guuy is a time bomb everytime he takes the mound.
_James W - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#36772) #
The American League will get the first pick next year, and it flips back and forth, so the Blue Jays will not get the 4th or 6th pick next year. If they finish 3rd worst in the AL, they'll have the 5th pick. If the Mariners pass them, they'll get the 3rd pick.

I had a rant about the 14th pick possibly being more successful in NHL drafts, and relating it to a typical Canadian's opinions about baseball and hockey, but it's not really going anywhere.
_DW - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#36773) #
"Absolutely. A good ball player could come from the 63rd round."
Well, not any more... :)

Incidentally, am I the only Matt Stark fan around? I remember looking at his minor league stats as a kid and wondering why he wasn't get a crack at the show (unaware of his once-lofty draft status). He reminded me of a poor man's Jerry Willard...
_Brian W - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#36774) #
I'm fairly sure the alternating draft picks has been stopped and it now goes purely by winning percentage regardless of league. And the way this season is going it looks like fourth or higher as I expect the Expos to pull away.
_Chris H - Tuesday, August 17 2004 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#36775) #
Brian W - you are correct. They changed the rules for the upcoming 2005 draft.
_James W - Wednesday, August 18 2004 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#36776) #
My apologies for the error. Who knew that Selig et al would change the old "AL-NL" rotation.

Oh.. World Series homefield advantage decided by the All-Star Game. Right!
_R Billie - Wednesday, August 18 2004 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#36777) #
Maybe the AL/NL draft order should be determined by the All-Star game too!
_Mike Johnson - Tuesday, September 07 2004 @ 02:06 AM EDT (#36778) #
One thing you can consider when evaluating the value of any draft pick is what the team gets for that player by route of trade. It's a huge can of worms to open up, but one example involving a 14th overall pick is 1968's Rich McKinney. After an above average 1971 season, the Yankees who were desparate for a thirdbaseman gave up Stan Bahnsen straight up for McKinney. McKinney went on to become overmatched at bat and in the field and was out of the league after a few very short stints. He made 4 errors in one game for NYY. Bahnsen won 51 games from 72-74 with the White Sox. First round picks carry some weight when they are offered up as trade bait.
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