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The Jays continue their road swing by breezing through the Windy City for a four-game visit.


The Pale Hose lost to Baltimore yesterday but still took two out of three against the Orioles at The Cell over the weekend and before that, swept the St. Louis Cardinals in a two-game set on the road. They are still dead last in the American League Central at 36-43, 10 games back of Kansas City.

The Blue Jays managed to win the series finale in Detroit but have dropped five of their last seven. They are 43-41, two games back of the New York Yankees and one game behind Baltimore in the American League East. Tampa Bay shares the same record as Toronto, who are now just three games ahead of last-place Boston.


Series Schedule / Probable Starters


Monday at 8:10 pm ET - Mark Buehrle (9-4, 3.64) vs. Chris Sale (6-4, 2.87)
Tuesday at 8:10 pm ET - Felix Doubront (0-0, 3.86)  vs. Jose Quintana (4-7, 3.81)
Wednesday at 8:10 pm ET - Drew Hutchison (8-2, 5.23) vs. John Danks (4-8, 4.95)
Thursday at 2:10 pm ET - R.A. Dickey (3-9, 5.02) vs. Jeff Samardzija (5-4, 4.33)


It appears Roberto Osuna will not be available for the series opener due to a sore back according to Gregor Chisholm of BlueJays.com. The struggles of Drew Hutchison are examined in a piece by John Lott of The National Post.

Last but not least, congratulations to Josh Donaldson who was voted in by the fans as the starting third baseman for the American League at next week's All-Star Game in Cincinnati. You may recall some good things happened for Donaldson and the Blue Jays the last time they played the White Sox.
Jays @ White Sox - July 6-8 | 246 comments | Create New Account
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Thomas - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#304499) #
Old friend Jason Frasor has been designated for assignment by K.C.

If he can be acquired for a low-ranking minor leaguer, I'd definitely be interested in having him return to Toronto. His peripherals aren't the best this year and he's not really the solid back-end arm the team is really looking for, but he could upgrade the middle relief at a minimal cost.
jerjapan - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#304500) #
Pretty interesting that a vet reliever with an ERA of 1.54 has been designated for assignment.  Of course, the 1.67 WHIP is a more telling stat, but the value of veteran relief help has clearly changed.  Perhaps AA is onto something with our no-name pen?

I like Frasor, but in all honesty, who does he replace?  Osuna, Hendricks, Loup and Cecil are all locks, and Delebar, Tepera and Schultz look pretty good to me - with one or more of Sanchez / Norris / Castro likely to push someone in the rotation to the pen or, if they are used as relievers, to slot in higher up on the leverage list. 

IMO, ace / mid-rotation starting pitchers or elite relievers are the only worthwhile upgrades AA can make to the team.   And I'm getting impatient waiting for him to make the move!

Thomas - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#304501) #
Personally, if Frasor could be acquired at a minimal cost, I'd have him replace Tepera. Having Tepera the first in line at Triple-A if an injury should strike one of the other relievers or a fresh arm is needed is preferable to having to recall Todd Redmond (or Castro at this point in time).
Chuck - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#304502) #
His peripherals aren't the best this year

They're downright stinky! Never has a 1.5 ERA been so fraudulent!

Lucky for him that he was able to put so many men on base and then have others in that very deep pen continually rescue him. Well, not so lucky, I guess. He was released from a playoff-bound team.

He'll surely land somewhere. Not sure I have the appetite for a third go-round of his whole "deer in the headlights" thang.

rtcaino - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#304503) #

My Organically Manufactured Nickname: The Nap Trap

uglyone - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#304504) #
no jays snubs. nice.
uglyone - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#304505) #
it's funny, i don't even look at ERA anymore for RP.

no way i'd even sniff frasor. he's been awful.
Chuck - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#304506) #
I hadn't realized what a good year Machado is having. His line and Donaldson's are almost identical.

JD: 296/352/527, 19 HR, 56 RBI
MM: 299/356/522, 17 HR, 46 RBI

uglyone - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#304509) #
Machado should probably be playing SS, too.

on another note, it's a pleasure to have a pro like Matt Devlin calling the fame.
cybercavalier - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#304510) #
no way i'd even sniff frasor. he's been awful.

Stats aside, could MLB veterans help young non-prospects develop their performance. In other words, are there some value to play veteran and young players on the same team ? Coaches are around to tell the young players what performance not to picked up from the veterans.
Magpie - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#304511) #
Very nice play by Colabello.

Has that sentence ever before appeared in the language?
uglyone - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#304512) #
boys look sharper tonight than they have in a while imo. nice at bats by guys like reyes and defense looks tighter than it has for a while.

good thing cuz they'll need every bit of that focus to beat Sale.
Magpie - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#304513) #
Here's another sentence that that you've never seen before:

Jon Lester hits a single.
Magpie - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#304514) #
His career BAVG jumps to .015, which is... different.
hypobole - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#304515) #
Colabello/Reyes for Laroche/Quintana?



uglyone - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#304516) #
i was gonna apologize for jinxing the defense.....then pillar and Donaldson did thst.
Eephus - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#304517) #
The rare 1-5-3 putout. Good stuff.
uglyone - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#304518) #
lol.

that tomahawk chop swing by josh tho.

#CanadianRakin' #Thunderbats
Eephus - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#304519) #
Bring the rain!
uglyone - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#304521) #
yeah we might want to re-sign buehrle.
uglyone - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#304522) #
Reyes, man.
greenfrog - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#304523) #
Reyes' D in the eighth may have cost the Jays a hard-fought win against Sale. Tough inning.
Eephus - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#304524) #
Gibbons is going to have to start bringing Goins for defense if the team is ahead. Egos be damned Jose, you're just not very good.
JB21 - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#304525) #
And Melky gets the big hit. That hurt.
greenfrog - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#304526) #
OK, let's scrape out a couple of runs here, boys.
uglyone - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#304527) #
dammit that hurts.

we played a great friggen game and then a little league error ruins it.

i'm pissed.
BlueJayWay - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#304529) #
It was a little touch and go there, but they finally found a way to lose that game. Couldn't quite pull off the one-run loss.
Chuck - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#304530) #
Anyone listening to Howarth at the time? I'm curious about how much restraint he was able to show.
JB21 - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#304531) #
This team will eat away at your soul.

Am I being too dramatic? Maybe not enough?
Four Seamer - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#304532) #
Jerry was relatively muted in his criticism, but he did make repeated reference to the error during the course of the inning, and made sure anyone listening realized all the runs were unearned. He was also very critical of his relay on the third run of the inning, though he didn't belabour the point after Joe chimed in with the view that the runner would have been safe even with a good throw to the catcher. In the bottom of the ninth, he talked about what a great teammate Buehrle is, because he went over to Reyes to encourage after the inning was over.
Gerry - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#304533) #
On TV the camera was on Reyes nearly all the time from the time of the error except when the pitcher was delivering a pitch.

Chuck - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#304534) #
Gibbons is going to have to start bringing Goins for defense if the team is ahead.

I'd never dispute the idea of improving your defense late in the game if at all possible. However, can anyone think of the last starting shortstop for any team who would be removed late in the game for defense? Corner outfielders, first basemen, sure. But a shortstop? I just don't know that this type of thing is done any more.

Spifficus - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#304535) #
I'm thinking Jeff Blauser so no, I'd say it's not done any more.
TangledUpInBlue - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#304536) #
Joe chimed in with the view that the runner would have been safe even with a good throw to the catcher.

Looked to me like a good throw would've had him. Even with two bounces they nearly had him.
Alex Obal - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#304538) #
Russ Adams.

A good throw would have had him, but due to the slick conditions (which burned the left side of Chicago's infield twice in the top of the ninth) I find it hard to criticize Reyes for losing the handle.
Chuck - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#304540) #
Good ones.

Russ Adams, we can all agree, didn't quite have enough status to stave off Johnny Mac (career 2.4 PA/G) as a late-game replacement.

Jeff Blauser is one I'd forgotten about. He was an offense-first shortstop and the Braves had their own Johnny Mac in Rafael Belliard (2.2 PA/G). I don't recall there being any controversy at all about this setup. I can't imagine Goins replacing Reyes not being controversial, and hugely so. The world has changed in a quarter century.

Going way back, I recall Earl Weaver having a late-career Mark Belanger serving as the defensive caddy for Kiko Garcia. But I'm now invoking a name younger Bauxites are going to have to google to convince themselves is a name I'm not making up.

China fan - Monday, July 06 2015 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#304541) #
I'm old enough to remember the ridiculous way Mark Belanger pronounced his own name.
Dave Till - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#304542) #
I was watching the TV broadcast last night (yay, MLB TV! you don't black out Jays games in Toronto!), so I missed Jerry Howarth's comments on Reyes. It sounded like his criticism was comparatively muted. I was expecting flaming torches.

Reyes's error last night was a bad error, but it was unusual: he doesn't normally whiff on ground balls hit right at him. It was unfortunate that Buehrle ran out of gas at just about that exact moment. Had he retired the side in order, we would all have forgotten about the error. This game doesn't provide any Moral Lessons, other than that Stuff Happens (which, as Jays fans, we already know, thank you).

From what I've seen of Reyes this year, his arm and hands are still good enough to play shortstop - it's just his range that is an issue. The Jays might gain an advantage from having Goins in the lineup for late-inning defense, but that would be offset by having Goins's bat in the lineup during the late innings of a close game if the opposition manages to tie the game or go ahead. And if the Jays keep Goins, they lose the benefit of having a better hitter on the bench.

My own belief is that Reyes's limited range is offset by having Josh Donaldson playing third base next to him. Reyes doesn't actually need to go into the hole much, as Donaldson moves to his left so well.

(Brief pause here while we all think good thoughts about Josh Donaldson.)

Last night's game was fun to watch (except for the outcome) because it went so quickly. Both Sale and Buehrle work as fast as humanly possible - pitch the ball, receive the ball, pitch the ball again right away. It took only 90 minutes to play the first seven innings, and it would have gone even faster if the batters hadn't followed their usual routine of stepping out of the box and adjusting 17 articles of clothing between pitches. Sale is a remarkable pitcher - and apparently didn't have his best stuff last night.

At this point, I would give Buehrle a qualifying offer. He probably won't be back after this season - the Jays have young pitching on the way, Buehrle isn't getting any younger, somebody is going to throw zords of money at him, and he might want to play in a city where he can live with his pit bull terriers. But it's been an absolute pleasure to watch him. He is to pitching what Picasso was to painting: an absolute master of his craft.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#304543) #
But it's been an absolute pleasure to watch him.

Earlier this year, when he was getting pounded, it wasn't difficult to believe that the jig was finally up, that the old guy who threw 80 miles an hour was finally figured out. And now that he's allowed just 8 earned runs in his last 7 starts, it looks like he could pitch another decade if he wanted.

Jevant - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 08:18 AM EDT (#304544) #
It was way over the top.  Pretty sure nobody felt worse about it last night than Jose.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#304545) #
You'd like to think that having someone like Buehrle - a guy who certifiably knows how to pitch, but who is also someone who fields his position flawlessly and completely eliminates the opposition's running game (and this is true of Dickey as well, except for the pitching part) would be an education for all the young pitchers on this staff. You'd like to think that some of these advanced skills (and simple fundamentals) might actually rub off on them.

Haven't seen much indication that it has, however.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#304546) #
The only young pitcher who has been around with Buehrle for any significant period of time is Hutchison.  He does seem to spend a lot of time talking to Buehrle during the game, and it is probably helping him in the long run.  I think that Hutchison has the ability to be a fine pitcher, but it is just taking awhile.  My impression is that the Yogi aphorism "90% of pitching is..." applies; Hutchison seems to me to be a perfectionist and treats each bad pitch and each base hit as a personal failure. 

You rarely see the words "Mark Buehrle" and "Zen" in the same sentence, but it does seem to me that he does have a Zen-like indifference to what has occurred.  Perhaps some of that will ultimately rub off on Hutchison.

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#304547) #
Here's a short piece on Dickey's decline: http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2015/7/7/8905251/the-ongoing-decline-of-r-a-dickey-in-one-chart
Gerry - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#304548) #
Aaron Sanchez pitched two innings for the GCL Jays today. He was pretty wild with little command of his off-speed pitches per Chris King who was there.

Sanchez could pitch again on the 12th and 17th and then possibly be ready to rejoin the Jays on the 22nd which is the date when a fifth starter is needed after the break.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#304551) #
Thinking about it I suspect the Jays almost need to resign Buehrle for 1 or 2 years.
  • Estrada is a free agent and if he is solid for the rest of the year (as we hope) then he'll probably get someone offering $45 for 3 years which would be a dumb contract.
  • Hutch hasn't been that effective
  • Sanchez was effective but FIP/etc all suggest it could be an illusion.
  • Dickey might not be worth keeping for 2016 at $12 mil
  • The kids haven't impressed consistently (Boyd, Norris) while others are too far from the majors.
So someone has to be signed for 2016, maybe 2 someones or more.  So depending on trades Buehrle might be the best guy to keep.  At this point I suspect building a HOF resume is his big goal as he has a WS ring and the Jays might be best for both with the offense here.
jerjapan - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#304556) #
whoops, that's not much of a comment.

Repost - interesting article in Fangraphs on the Rays pen usage this year, as a means of dealing with a loss of talent / depth in the rotation. 

the Rays have avoided overworking relievers by increasing their quantity. The Rays have 21 pitchers on their 40-man roster and only the injured Grayson Garvin has yet to throw a pitch for the big-league team this season. Including position players Nick Franklin and Jake Elmore, 21 relievers have made an appearance for the Rays this year. Fifteen relievers have made more than five appearances.

The Rays’ success might not be sustainable this season, but they are certainly trying to make the most of what they have. Despite a less than stellar bullpen ERA and FIP, the bullpen has been effective for the Rays this season in taking the load off of a depleted rotation.

Sound familiar?
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#304557) #
John, don't forget about that Stroman kid - he's pretty good. I don't want to see Dickey back next year but would love to have Buerhle back for a year or two. I think we need one or two more arms for the rotation and that will be a priority for AA the rest of the season and into the off season.
scottt - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#304559) #
Age will catch up with Buehrle sooner or later. Just getting a pick for him would be awesome.

One thing at a time. I'm eager to see Beeston replaced first.
TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#304560) #
I'm eager to see Beeston replaced first.

You're pretty excited by the likes of Dan Duquette, are you? That is to say, shouldn't we find out who the replacement is before getting so excited?
Magpie - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#304561) #
Age will catch up with Buehrle sooner or later.

It might not happen for a few years, though. The most obvious recent comp for Buehrle, obviously, is Tom Glavine - a LH pitcher with a low 80s heater and remarkable durability over the course of his career. While he wasn't as good as he was in his prime, in his age 38-40 seasons, Glavine started at least 32 games each year with ERA+ of 119, 116, and 114.

Which is right about where Buehrle is now. So there are two obvious caveats. Buehrle, while always a very fine pitcher, was simply never as good as Glavine. So if Buehrle declines at about the same pace as Glavine, he's more likely to be around league average rather than above average, as Glavine was. Which still has quite a bit of value, of course.

And Buehrle may not be interested in playing for five more years. He may not even want to play next year.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#304562) #
He may not even want to play next year.

He may well be that rare athlete who retires on his own schedule. But I doubt it.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#304563) #
I wonder how Doubront feels about closing. This is a pretty good Scott Downs impression.
Kasi - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#304564) #
So is Doubront actually good tonight or is just smoke and mirrors against a bad white sox hitting team?
scottt - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#304565) #
I thought his problem was too many walks.

Can they send him back to Buffalo?

Spifficus - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#304566) #

Can they send him back to Buffalo?

Forget that. Can they throw him a parade?

JB21 - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#304567) #
Gibby managed that one well IMO.

Osuna was missing in the heart of the plate quite a bit but with his stuff he got away with it.
scottt - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#304568) #
Barely.

Where did the offense go?

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#304569) #
Good win today. About due for one of their 11-3 blowouts tomorrow.
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#304570) #
I'm eager to see Beeston replaced first.

Yeah, one would want to get rid a of president who has made a major upgrade at GM, overseen the rebuilding of the most important parts of the organization like the scouting department and international recruitment, rebuilt the brand in key ways like returning the logo and uniforms to what the fans want to wear, secured solid team funding from ownership. That's really a guy you'd want to see replaced quickly, particularly when you know his heart is a Blue Jay one.

All of this followed up on the degradation of the organization under Paul Godfrey, who got out before he was canned. I haven't yet heard an intelligent criticism of Beeston's presidency.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#304571) #
If Doubront spots his curveball like that every time out, he's the best SP on the team. Not especially likely, but it's nice to immediately establish that he has it in him.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#304572) #
Our offence is great against mediocre or poor pitching.

I was actually thinking of checking the top 10 AL starters by either FIP or ERA+ and seeing how the Jays have fared compared to the rest of the league. Just a guess, but I don't think we've done better than league average.

cybercavalier - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#304573) #
Dickey might not be worth keeping for 2016 at $12 mil

Would he and Thole be taken off Jays' to some other team ? Say,  a 1M Jays buyout and trade them to the Pirates for A.J. Burnett.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#304574) #
Top 10 MLB fWAR SP vs. TOR:

1. M.Scherzer: 1gs, 6.0ip/gs, 6.00era, 6.75fip, 4.40xfip
2. C.Sale: 1gs, 9.0ip/gs, 2.00era, 4.97fip, 3.32xfip
3. C.Kluber: 1gs, 5.0ip/gs, 7.20era, 5.68fip, 4.75xfip
4. C.Archer: 3gs, 7.3ip/gs, 0.41era, 2.22fip, 2.83xfip
5. D.Kuechel: 1gs, 6.0ip/gs, 6.00era, 2.91fip, 3.38xfip
6. C.Kershaw: ---
7. C.Buchholz: 4gs, 5.8ip/gs, 4.70era, 2.06fip, 3.38xfip
8. S.Gray: --
9. M.Pineda: 2gs, 7.0ip/gs, 1.29era, 1.77fip, 3.39xfip
10. D.Price: 1gs, 7.0ip/gs, 1.29era, 3.37fip, 2.90xfip

uglyone - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#304575) #
huh.

a full 1/6th of our games have come against top 10 mlb fwar sp.
China fan - Tuesday, July 07 2015 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#304576) #
Suddenly the Jays pitching staff is looking a lot better than it did a
couple weeks ago.  A very good start from Doubront tonight, raising
hopes that he might be a legitimate option for the rotation.  Norris had
an excellent start for Buffalo tonight -- 7 innings, 1 run, 4 hits, 8
strikeouts, zero walks.  Sanchez has begun his rehab games and could be
ready to return to the Jays by late July.  The bullpen is looking a lot
better.  Osuna seems to be the solution for the high-leverage innings. 
Schultz has been surprisingly good in the middle innings and might now
be a set-up man.  The rest of the bullpen has been decent too.  And
Castro has recovered from injury and is pitching in Buffalo (although
his last outing wasn't a good one).  In summary:  lots of emerging
options in Toronto and the minors.  I still want Anthopoulos to trade
for a good experienced starter, but if the price is too high, the Jays
still have a chance of seeing continued improvements in their rotation
and bullpen.
Thomas - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#304577) #
Would he and Thole be taken off Jays' to some other team ? Say, a 1M Jays buyout and trade them to the Pirates for A.J. Burnett.

Why in the world would the Pirates make that trade?

John Northey - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#304578) #
Not to mention why would you want to be tortured by AJ Burnett again?

More realistically who is available who is a clear #1?  AA has made it clear that is what he really wants, top end guys and with Donaldson he has seen why he should chase those.  There are only a few ruoured available  but AA has shown that he won't let 'not available' stop him.

To be honest, Stroman slipped my mind, I'd have listed him as 'injured, should be ready for 2016 but as always with injuries who knows what to expect?

Remember, he had a great 1/2 season but 1/2 a season does not make a guy into an ace or even someone you can count on.  He also is a high risk to be traded to get that ace I'd think.

Kasi - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 01:18 AM EDT (#304580) #
Trade Stroman for a rental? Haven't we learned enough about this already with the young pitchers we've traded away? If Stroman can bring us a controllable pitching asset akin to Donaldson than sure I'm for that. But for someone like Cueto I'm not willing to give much since he'll be gone in a few months. Now someone like Hamels or Gray sure I'd be willing to spend more for, but not for a rental and not for some minor upgrade like Semardzija.
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 01:29 AM EDT (#304582) #
I didn't read that as John indicating that he'd be movable for a rental. I thought the Donaldson and 'not available' references covered that he was talking controllable guys (at least for me).

And just to quibble, Samardzija's more than a minor upgrade. Even using ERA, he's nearly a run better than Hutchison or Dickey, and with more innings than either (a hell of a lot more than Hutchison). And that's playing in front of the Chicago defense, which has not been a metric darling this year. Having said that, he's obviously not going to net the Sox Stroman, unless someone like Quintana is also involved in the deal (man, did he look good tonight).
John Northey - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 01:48 AM EDT (#304583) #
My gut says AA is chasing some gold out there ala Donaldson but on the mound.  Who could it be? Who knows.  AA will surprise us I hope, in a good way.  I suspect all pitchers are available with Buehrle being the only exception.  Stroman's big plus in a trade is how he probably won't help the Jays in 2015 but could help anyone in 2016.
jerjapan - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:32 AM EDT (#304584) #
Yeah, one would want to get rid a of president who has made a major upgrade at GM, overseen the rebuilding of the most important parts of the organization like the scouting department and international recruitment, rebuilt the brand in key ways like returning the logo and uniforms to what the fans want to wear, secured solid team funding from ownership. That's really a guy you'd want to see replaced quickly, particularly when you know his heart is a Blue Jay one.

All of this followed up on the degradation of the organization under Paul Godfrey, who got out before he was canned. I haven't yet heard an intelligent criticism of Beeston's presidency.


I just wanted to repost this because it's my fave post of the last decade.  nice one CDBC!
scottt - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 06:53 AM EDT (#304585) #
Whatever you might think of him, it's known that Beeston is going and this creates uncertainty. The new president could change the GM and the manager. So, I'd like that out of the way as soon as the season is over.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#304587) #
I'd hope AA wouldn't be dumped as he has done a great job building the minors from what I can tell.  we're just starting to see it flow in.  His big errors were the early 'go for it' with the Miami and NYM trades and the Gomes trade but many, many more wins than losses on trades as I recall.  He is learning on the job and getting better as time goes by, as shown by the Donaldson trade (get the big star and lose some minor pieces, although Graveman is looking better all the time but with the low K rate he could collapse at any time) anyways Graveman still makes AA look good as he was a bargain draft pick who became very useful in getting a key ML piece and has succeeded in the majors now.

Gibbons I'm not a big fan of.  He is OK as a manager but more a replacement level one than a star one imo.  He doesn't kill the team but also doesn't do anything that stands out as a good thing..
Jevant - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#304588) #
Eye test for me says it was probably a bit of both.  His stuff looked fairly good though.
Jevant - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#304589) #
Hey-o, Spaghetti-o.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#304590) #
RH Osuna: 95.3mph, 2.72siera
LH Loup: 93.4mph, 2.19siera
RH Hendriks: 94.3mph, 2.57siera
LH Cecil: 92.0mph, 2.94siera
RH Delabar: 93.4mph, 3.16siera
RH Tepera: 95.4mph, 3.02siera
RH Schultz: 95.6mph, 3.37siera

that’s a pretty tight pen.
Jevant - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#304591) #
Considering there are 145 non-Blue Jays rotation spots at any given time, that feels like stupidly bad luck.  And probably is some of the explanation as to why the RD is not reflected in the record right now.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#304592) #
p.s. Stroman's not being traded.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#304593) #
...a of president who has made a major upgrade at GM...

Did he? After 5.5 years, AA's winning record looks about the same as Ricciardi's.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#304594) #
Jose Bautista does many things that make me smile.  I do, however, wish that he would run out ground balls to shortstop.  I'm not expecting a full-on sprint as you would anticipate on a play at the plate.  Just a solid run to first base, a la Donaldson.  There are two reasons.  First, it makes a difference.  Shortstops often will bobble the ball or throw a ball in the dirt which the first baseman can't scoop cleanly (as Reyes did yesterday).  If the batter isn't running, it still may be an out.  It's nothing like a pop-up in terms of defence failure rates.  Second, it sets a bad example. 

Doubront did have nice movement on his curveball, but about 1/2 of them were sitting nicely on a table to be whacked and the White Sox just couldn't do it. Ramirez got out in front of one and had home run distance but foul. Nonetheless, I'd rather see a pitcher throwing strikes with several of his pitches and taking a chance that mistakes will not be hit rather than persistent nibbling.  For his career in the rotation, Doubront has an ERA of 4.40 with a somewhat better FIP and xFIP (4.21 and 4.14).  That is consistent with serviceable performance from a back-end starter, and would be just fine on this club. 

Here's a question.  If the club gave R.A. Dickey 15 starts after the All-Star break, how many runs per game would he allow?  During his 2 and 1/2 years in Toronto, he has allowed 4.53 runs per game.  Is there reason to believe that he would do better, worse or the same as he has done before? Does Drew Hutchison have an expectation better, worse or the same?  How about Daniel Norris?  Matt Boyd?  For what it's worth Steamer has them in order- Boyd, Hutchison, Norris/Dickey (tie).  Subjectively, I have them Hutchison, (gap), Norris, Boyd, Dickey.  I'd love to see Norris and Dickey in a big league pen and another starter (Samardzija?) acquired. 

uglyone - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#304596) #
"Just a solid run to first base, a la Donaldson."

not sure Donaldson deserves that. he often doesn't run at all.
Jevant - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#304597) #
That was my immediate thought as well.  They aren't David Eckstein, that's for sure.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#304598) #
"I'd love to see Norris and Dickey in a big league pen"

doubt they'd make our pen better.

personally I'd gamble on Hutch and Norris in the rotation in the 2nd half. they give us the best chance at legit good SP performance.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#304599) #
If running out ground outs is the biggest issue a player has then I love that player.  Often the guys who run the hardest are the ones who need to in order to keep their jobs.  Pete Rose the exception of course but he had other issues (like running to the gaming house after the game to pay his debts).
Kasi - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#304601) #
I'm thinking the good teams like the cardinals and giants don't do rentals and don't dump thir minor leaguers for an old expensive big leaguer (although cards did pick up a controllable asset in Heyward as a smart move). There is no reason to think that selling the farm for a single old asset will work and in fact it has rarely worked in recent history. Those teams with sustainable success build up a lot of minor league assets and develop them into big leaguers. Heck even the Orioles and Rays have done quite well on the build from within. Trying to shortcut it with a trade for a single asset has rarely worked out for teams. I liked the trades back the but other than Beurhle nothing we got has helped us. And we lost a lot. This team would be better today if e had kept our young players and used some of the money to sign a single reliable mid level starter (a number 3/4 guy)
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#304602) #
On the routine grounder, Donaldson is usually three or four steps from the bag when the throw arrives.  Often,  Bautista isn't halfway there when the ball arrives.  I'm not asking that they be Pete Rose. I don't care if either jogs to first base on a pop-up.  

Dickey would have value in the current pen, as the guy who could go 5 or 6 innings if a starter doesn't make it out of the 2nd inning.  I'd like Norris to have an apprenticeship in the pen before returning to the major league rotation; I'd like the same for Boyd actually but after a little more time in Buffalo.  In both cases, an apprenticeship would allow both to get their feet wet in a lower stress environment and keep the seasonal innings reasonable in light of their career paths to date.  I can easily see Norris and Boyd in the 2016 rotation if both are still in the organization. 

Oceanbound - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#304603) #
I'm thinking the good teams like the cardinals and giants don't do rentals and don't dump thir minor leaguers for an old expensive big leaguer (although cards did pick up a controllable asset in Heyward as a smart move).

Actually Heyward is a free agent after this season. Makes you feel old doesn't it.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#304604) #
I'm thinking the good teams like the cardinals and giants don't do rentals and don't dump thir minor leaguers for an old expensive big leaguer

The Cards traded Colby Rasmus for imminent FA Edwin Jackson and a bunch of relievers, which at the time many people regarded as a dumb move. That worked out pretty well for them - they won the World Series, and Rasmus never turned into the 5-tool superstar some people predicted.

So the moral is probably less "don't trade prospects" as much as "trade the right prospects."
Chuck - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#304605) #
Bautista isn't halfway there when the ball arrives.

Bautista hit into a DP yesterday. When I didn't even see him in the picture en route to first base, I assumed he had pulled a hamstring and was lying in a heap on the ground. Only in a later replay did I see him peel off around the 45-foot mark.

85bluejay - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#304606) #
I don't have a problem with Bautista's effort, I think too much is made of that playing 100% all the time mentality - I generally trust players to pace themselves for the long season especially with shorter benches leading to less rest for starters.

Kasi - While I'm not against trading prospects, I generally echo your post, that so many of those trades especially in July don't get the desired result and in fact sets back the organisation that I hope the Jays tread very carefully.
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#304607) #
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if some organizations these days are telling their best players not to run out every play. It's better that Bautista, Encarnacion, etc. stay healthy and in the lineup.
ayjackson - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#304608) #
Interesting thing about Hutchison's home/road splits is that the underlying peripherals support them. It doesn't seem to be luck induced.

He does have a super-high road BABIP, but LD% does seem to support a good portion of the differential from his home BABIP.

His home xFIP is 3.03, vs 4.76 on the road. He's also walking more and striking out less on the road.

I wonder if pitch patterns/usage vary on the road...
Kasi - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#304609) #
Heyward was a 1-1 challenge trade pretty much since Miller wasn't really excelling for them, so it doesn't fit into the idea of buying a star/rental anyway. As for the Jackson/Colby trade yeah that one worked out well. But then again they sold a single player who had made the big leagues. They knew what they had pretty much and maybe they just didn't want that. I have more of a problem with bundling 3-4 prospects together for a single guy trades. minor league players are essentially lottery tickets. If you give too much of them away you're just reducing the chance you'll hit the jackpot on a young star.

Really the Jays had a great opportunity to contend with great affordable deals for Bautista and EE and threw a lot of it away by dumping assets and millions into those two trades which has basically amounted to Beurhles production and not much else. I think AA has realized that now with his recent talk about it being more important to have a fair trade for a valuable asset instead of winning a trade for mediocre assets.
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#304610) #
It doesn't seem to be luck induced.

Well, that can still be luck. Or randomness -- whatever we want to call it.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#304611) #
I think only a few of AA's trades have worked out. I liked the Escobar trade.
The Josh Donaldson trade was great. I do not know why Beane would trade a player that was proven to be great. Sure the return was potentially very good.
Beane has a track record that is good. He has had a few good teams. AA has never had a good team. Last year Beane tried to improve a very good team and it backfired. Those are moves that work often enough that you make them as you try to go for it.

IMO AA has had a hard time finding mediocre players. Laffey for example was below mediocre IMO. The offense as well had a few too many very weak hitters at times of injury. I remember a stretch when Bautista was injured and the only good hitter was EE. Lind, Lawrie, Reyes & Rasmus were injured. So injuries definitely contributed to AA's poor won/lost record.

I am reasonably sure that the LAD had Pedro Martinez but traded him. Probably trying to go for it. Hopefully they were a good or very good team trying to become much better in hopes of winning a WS. The window for being strong only lasts for so long.

AA'a window has not yet appeared IMO. No Michael Young type deals please.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#304613) #
Very encouraged to read that apparently AA is open to trading from the big league roster - now, that's creative thinking - I would definitely listen on EE as Colabello probably doesn't have much value & I would like to open the DH spot for Bautista in his next contract plus with EE's back problems & lack of positional flexibility, I would probably say no to extending EE.

bpoz - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#304614) #
If EE is traded at the deadline, then obviously a good player has left. I would be interested in knowing/analysing how much immediate help the Jays have acquired.
EE gives us this year, next year if the option is picked up and a draft pick if a QO is made.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#304615) #
For what it's worth, it is better for the Blue Jays if Encarnacion gives his best on the bases (and he almost always does).  He's a DH.  The Blue Jays have an alternative, Colabello, in the event he gets hurt. .  When he was injured last year (successfully) attempting to beat out a DP so Reyes could score from third, that was a good play. 

In Bautista's case, it is more about discretion than effort.  Fewer throws to first base  when angered and more running out of ground balls.  Bautista usually gives a tremendous effort for his age chasing fly balls in foul territory. 

JB21 - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#304617) #
Brandon League for Brandon Morrow
Vernon Wells and his contact
bought extremely low on Rasmus & Escobar
Lawrie for Marcum
Josh Donaldson
JB21 - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#304618) #
EE is a 10/5 guy now, so it'll be tough to trade him.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#304619) #
threw a lot of it away by dumping assets and millions into those two trades which has basically amounted to Beurhles production and not much else.

While Jose Reyes may be overpaid - particularly now that the back-loaded part of his contract is kicking in - he's still been a very good player for Toronto.

Meanwhile, the Marlins haven't got much to show for the deal: Hechavarria has blossomed (after 2 years of being pretty bad), and Alvarez has been good when he hasn't been hurt, but that's about it. (I still like Nicolino, but we'll see how his stuff plays in the majors)
92-93 - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#304620) #
Kevin Pillar rolled over a ball to the right side last night and made zero effort to run down the line. That should bother fans, not when Jose Bautista takes it easy on a routine grounder.

When Edwin hit his long single last night there was a lot of immediate Twitter criticism that he wasn't hustling out of the box, which on replay was shown to be wrong (he briefly watched the stroke, as any power hitter is wont to do on solid contact). As long as the studs are hustling on plays that aren't routine, I don't think there's anything to quibble about.

It's nice to see the current version of the bullpen vindicating all the people who were posting all offseason that the team's rotation needs the upgrade, and that there were more than enough capable arms in the system to cobble together a functional group. With the acquisition of a front-line SP this team probably becomes the division favorites, and even a reliable innings-eater would really boost the playoff chances.
92-93 - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#304621) #
They also have Jared Cosart from Jake Marisnick, Derek Dietrich from Yunel Escobar, and Mat Latos from Anthony DeSlafani.

The real win for the Marlins comes in 2016 & 2017, when the Blue Jays will be paying Jose Reyes 22m per year to provide similar production for which the Marlins will be paying Hechavarria approximately 5m.
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#304622) #
To me, "players off the major league roster" means:

-- Travis: It would hurt but Goins might be an acceptable alternative if the package coming back is good enough, and Travis might go a long ways to making it good enough.
-- Pillar: This means taking a chance on Pompey, which seems too risky at this point. Plus it's hard to see how trading Pillar does anything but weaken the team.
-- Hutchison: Could be the Brett Lawrie of the Donaldson trade (or Smyly of the Price trade); if a pitcher's coming back, someone has to leave the rotation anyway so we can afford to trade a starter.
-- Osuna: Trading any reliever is worth it if you get a good enough return. Obviously he has a lot of potential as a SP but he's still unproven in that role, with a Tommy John surgery already. Again, it'd hurt, but I'd do it if necessary.
-- Stroman: Only if the return is spectacular, and even then I'd be reluctant. And, anyway, he could still be the saviour this year.
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#304623) #
Lawrie for Marcum

Right. This one gets forgotten. A heist in retrospect.
Kasi - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#304624) #
Reyes has been worth about 6.5 WAR for about 37 million dollars in salary. Which is a decent return but not great. Of course that doesn't take into account the multiple remaining years of 22 mil that will almost certainly be a net loss. Hat beng said the Marlins trade wasn't that bad. The players traded away haven't been great other than maybe Hechavaria. The trades I have issue its are the Dickey one plus a bunch of other trades where they traded people like Gomes, Musgrove, DeJong, etc for negligible return.
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#304625) #
Hat beng said the Marlins trade wasn't that bad.

If Hat Beng said it then it must be true! I used to be friends with that guy.
JB21 - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#304626) #
All those prospects we gave up to obtain Happ did result in Saunders, who, if healthy, is a very good player at a very reasonable cost. Note: big IF I realize.

Not a trade you want to make very often but didn't end up hurting.

Josh Johnson really hurt the Marlins trade, but that wasn't AA's fault. At worst we figured we'd get a comp pick for him.

At least with the Gomes trade AA wrote his wrong and got Martin. Gomes has had a rough year in 2015.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#304627) #
Presumably one of Colabello and Encarnacion could be traded.  Obviously it would hurt from a depth perspective, but they do occupy the same niche. 
Kasi - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#304628) #
Sorry ipad spelling check isn't great. :p
JB21 - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#304629) #
I forgot Gose for Travis, add that to the list as well.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#304631) #
Josh Johnson really hurt the Marlins trade, but that wasn't AA's fault. At worst we figured we'd get a comp pick for him.

Johnson had a pretty long injury history, so the worst-case scenario always probably involved the DL.

In 2013, the Jays paid $21 million for Brandon Morrow & Josh Johnson, and got 130 terrible innings for it. That's more damage than RA Dickey ever caused.
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#304632) #
Presumably one of Colabello and Encarnacion could be traded.

Colabello, sure. Encarnacion could be traded "theoretically" but I wouldn't say "presumably" -- presumably he'd veto a trade, and presumably Anthopoulos wouldn't create a potential maelstrom by asking him.
Jevant - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#304633) #
I simply cannot see EE being dealt...Colabello...if he's a throw in, sure.  I think the most likely "traded from the current roster" piece is Hutchison, in exchange for an upgraded starter.  My speculation is further that AA would probably only go down that road if he was able to work in a BP upgrade simultaneously (Hutch/Norris for Cueto/Chapman, or something like that).  There really isn't an obvious replacement waiting for any of the starting 9, unless you are prepared to give up on Pillar and go with Pompey (but surely the Jays would prefer their 4 OF to include both Pompey and Pillar going into the playoffs).

What will be really interesting to me is if Pompey is forcing their hand, and Saunders is ready.  Carrera goes first, but then it becomes which of Valencia and Colabello do you move/demote?  I have to imagine they want 4 actual OF on their roster for the games that count (Valencia and Colabello try their best out there, but...yeah).
uglyone - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#304634) #
boy i sure hope "willing to trade from th3 big league roster" doesn't mean "trading your elite cleanup hitter on a bargain contract".

that would be crazy.
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#304635) #
Well, if it does mean that, I hope it's for something juicy, and I personally don't consider rentals juicy enough.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#304636) #
It's not a given that Edwin would veto any trade. He wouldn't want to go to rebuilding team, but it's unlikely a rebuilding team would want a player with only one year left on his contract. But if AA could swing some sort of deal with a contender - some complicated 3-way deal, perhaps - he might go along with it.

That said, I think you have to be careful of the optics of trading one of your leading home run hitters, a guy who's been around for a long time, and is one of Jose Bautista's best buddies. If there's not a clear roster upgrade coming back within the hour, things could get ugly.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#304638) #
Edwin , our elite cleanup hitter has been worth 1.1 fWAR, and his bargain contract only has one more season. We're not talking Mike Trout here.

That said, he has the best combination of value and history of performance, plus replaceability within our current roster.

Now that he's a 10 and 5 though, the chances of a trade are pretty well zilch.
Jevant - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#304640) #
I'm actually genuinely curious to see what those who are in favour of an EE trade would actually propose.  Because I just can't comprehend something that makes the Jays better, offsetting Edwin's value, and has any chance of being accepted by the other team.

I think my opinion on not trading Edwin has been long established, but I challenge those who have the opposite viewpoint to put together a deal that makes sense for the Jays, the other team you are proposing, and that Edwin would be likely to approve.

Kasi - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#304641) #
The time for trading EE has passed because of his 10-5 rights but I could have seen something done in the offseason for a strong number 3 mlb pitcher or maybe to the Mets for one of their guys about to break into the mlb rotation. No he would not bring us an ace, but he could have got us our ace for this season given our rotation. I don't know who he could have gotten, but AA with two years left of his contract could have gotten something quite good I think.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#304642) #
That's right, EE is valuable to super low scoring teams that need a bat. Tampa Bay when they had David Price, there were discussions of Edwin for Price and working from there. At that time, Edwin was a top power hitter and known for his insane plate vision and discipline. Now, there's a lot more power hitters in the league that 2-3 years ago.

If CWS were in contention, I could see an EE for Samardzija bullpen piece coming back. But they're not, and it doesn't matter because there's no reason why EE would waive his no trade now.
Jevant - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#304643) #
Even without the 10-5 rights, I don't see it.  Mets: Lucas Duda is installed there, and EE seems to need the DH spot to stay healthy.  If you traded EE in the offseason, you'd be making a bet on Colabello/Smoak/Valencia doing what they would be doing to date, and expecting it to continue all year.  I cannot possibly imagine anyone would have been happy if the Jays had made that bet, considering Colabello was a dump heal rescue, and Smoak almost didn't make the roster.



Mike Green - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#304644) #
The Cardinals need a first baseman and have pitching.  There is a positional match with the Blue Jays, which wouldn't necessarily involve a standard present for future deadline deal.  I imagine that most players would not mind playing for the Cardinals right now.  It's also possible to construct various three-way possibilities involving the Blue Jays, Cardinals and White Sox (for instance).  Those were the teams involved in the Rasmus/Jackson deal, and it would be funny if they were to happen again 4 years later. 
Jevant - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#304645) #
There were Price-EE discussions??  There is "more power" now in the league than 2-3 years ago??  I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure power has been declining for some time now.  And "at that time"...how is that any different than now?

I don't really understand how trading EE for Samardzija helps the Jays either now or in the offseason of 2014-2015, unless there was a plan to bring in a replacement.  It's easy to say now "we could have survived in 2015 with Smoak/Colabello/Valencia doing what they are doing", but the far more likely projection was that those 3 wouldn't be doing as well as they have been (and they still could easily be exposed with more at-bats...credit to Gibbons for managing them well, particularly Valencia/Smoak).

Trading EE is cutting off your nose to spite your face, as far as I'm concerned.



jerjapan - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#304646) #
Trading EE makes sense from a roster construction perspective - we've got quality depth at 1b and he's an attractive asset to lots of teams - but how often do you see star for star trades these days?  if he was getting dealt it would've been before the 10 and 5 rights kicked in. 

Valencia, smoak and Cola likely have enough value to be part of a deal for a quality reliever - but as Uglyone's been noting for a while now, the current pen looks pretty good. 

Dealing Hutch is a good way to upgrade the rotation if you don't think he's likely to improve significantly, but his value is at a low point.  Navarro has been discussed ad naseum. 

Pillar?  Travis?  Really don't see the club dealing from the roster.

Also, gotta disagree with you Kasi on AA's trades - the Happ deal cost us Musgrove (15th ranked prospect for the Stros) and that's about it - Rollins is a 25 year old relief 'prospect', Comer and Asher Woj have struggled and lost prospect status, Carlos Perez looks like a depth catcher ... we got 2.5 years of a decent back end starter and Saunders.   unless musgrove becomes a star, we won that deal.  The Gomes deal has been beaten to death, but nobody saw that coming  - there's a Gomes breakout type every year.  Im sure the pirates bemoan dealing Bautista for Robinson Diaz, but you just can't count on these breakouts coming.  and the chase dejong deal allowed us to sign uber prospect vlad jr without limiting our opportunity to get more prospects next year. 




hypobole - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#304647) #
I proposed some time ago trading EE to the Angels, who have had a huge hole at DH, for Newcomb or Heaney.

Jevant - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#304650) #
That's interesting...hadn't heard the Angels mentioned.  That's an intriguing option...although not sure Heaney or Newcomb would be enough of an upgrade on what could be gained by simply promoting Norris (or what is already here).

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#304651) #
It's a bit tough to make a trade with a contending team in the AL like the Angels, especially with the second wild card.  It can more easily end up hurting directly in 2015. 
Jevant - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#304652) #
Some sort of 3 team deal would presumably make the most sense.

I think basically the thing I struggle with most in any discussion over an EE trade is how it would be preferable to simply backing up the prospect truck to acquire the same type of talent. 

85bluejay - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#304653) #
of all the pitchers likely to be available, Johnny Cueto is at the top of my list - I don't mind a rental because of the young pitching talent the jays have - I don't want Hamels contract (my guess is he goes to Boston who are now back in the race) - Some sort of 3 way deal with EE going to the Cardinals/Pirates, young talent going to the Reds & Cueto coming to the Jays.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#304654) #
There were Price-EE discussions?? There is "more power" now in the league than 2-3 years ago?? I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure power has been declining for some time now. And "at that time"...how is that any different than now?

People in the media and the TV broadcasts were speculating about Price-Edwin. I don't work for the Blue Jays and was not alluding to insider information with my statement of discussions.

Overall offense is down but home run power is up. Just look at the home run totals from the last 2 and a half years:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/homeruns/_/year/2014

In a nutshell, in 2013 there were 5 players with more than 35 home runs including Chris Davis, and three of them barely made it to 35 home runs. The following year there were 7 players who hit 35 home runs or more, including 2 who barely made it. And that includes Nelson Cruz. This year, at the half way mark, roughly, there are 12 players on pace to go pass 35 home runs, with another 6 on the fringe who can easily pass it (Hanley, JBau, Edwin, Dozier, Machado, Davis)...so, I would say that power has definitely gone up.

My point is that Edwin's power was elite 2 years ago. Now, not as much.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#304655) #
"I think basically the thing I struggle with most in any discussion over an EE trade is how it would be preferable to simply backing up the prospect truck to acquire the same type of talent."

It's preferable to shipping out prospects because most of the prospects the Jays have, allegedly, that other teams would want are SP prospects like Hoffman, Norris, Stroman, Sanchez, Redi Foley. There's a reason the Jays draft SP's...it's because it's harder to get FA pitchers from free agency because some don't want to pitch in the AL East and the pure fact that pitching is more expensive than hitting.

Jays will have an easier time trying to replace Edwin that trying to get a David Price or Cueto level pitcher to the Jays.

If they trade position prospects not named Alford, then I'm all for it. Then again, AA has always said that the plan all along was to draft pitching so that there was enough of it to trade away. I just think that SP is so valuable right now that you need more than 10-15 starts from a rental to justify it.
Kasi - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#304656) #
The problem with the DeJong deal is it still costs us being able to freely sign next year. It just saves us in year two. Look at the analysis on BBB. Also when you look at who other teams traded for salary cap relief that AA got taken by the Dodgers. Musgrove has been doing quite well this year as well. There might be some others I'm not thinking of atm.

Point is EE was coming off several high WAR seasons with two cheap years left. We could have traded from strength to address pitching but chose not to. Once Stroman went down we paid for that decision.
christaylor - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#304657) #
A certain player has done this since May 1st (I know, I know arbitrary start-point): .256/.358/.507

I don't understand the chatter about trading him today and a trade would have been silly last year or in 2014.

Patience Donaldson, I mean Danielson, patience. One of Norris or Sanchez are likely to help in the second half and even Stroman might down the stretch. RA/Hutch could easily throw up delightful 2nd half numbers - it won't be difficult for them to be better.

I do wish AA would step up and shoot down trade speculation questions and say, "Make a trade? Why? There are precious few options better than what we have internally. I'll let you know if and when we make a deal, Adam Lind."
Kasi - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#304658) #
The Jays last year were 5th in batting WAR and fifth last in pitching WAR. They then had an offseason where they signed Donaldson and Martin. Yes those moves would help the pitching through game calling and better defense, but they didn't acquire a pitcher to bolster the team. If they had Stroman still I think we'd easily be in first in the division.

There I think were opportunities to bring in starters (we even traded Happ who would have been really nice for this team so far) but didn't. So yeah we could have traded some offensive piece for a pitching option. AA rolled the dice with what he had and now any guy we get we'lol likely have to overpay for.
Super Bluto - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#304659) #
90% chance of rain in Chicago tonight, which gives Hutch a bonus day rest
Hodgie - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#304660) #
"Look at the analysis on BBB. Also when you look at who other teams traded for salary cap relief that AA got taken by the Dodgers."

With all due respect to Blue Bird Banter, this is just another case of a fan base over-valuing their own prospects. The Jays identified a player whom they and many others believe was the best IFA available and took the necessary steps to acquire him. A lack of such effort has been bemoaned in these parts quite often in the past. DeJong was having a nice year as a 21 year old pitcher repeating A ball and Locastro's greatest skill was his penchant for getting plunked. How exactly Anthopoulos was 'taken' escapes me.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#304661) #
EE had an awful april, and has been back to his normal elite hitting ways since.

trading him makes no sense.
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#304663) #

Looking to trade him makes no sense. If he's what it takes to get what you want and the value is right (factoring in both the future and present), it makes no sense to not at least consider out of the box ideas. Of course, that's how anyone on the roster should be treated.

Having said that, who the heck is going match up well in terms of both return and the need for EE? Who has an abundance of front-line pitching that's in or near a race that needs right handed power out of DH or 1B? Alternately, there's always a three-way, but those are pretty much crap-shoots.

Kasi - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#304665) #
Damn it it ate my post. Stupid IPad. Anyway I like EE fine. He's a strong part of our offense. But we have some issues.

1. We have a strong offense but weak pitching.
2. We can sign FA hitters but pitchers don't want to sign here.
3. Our minors are stocked with pitching talent but little position talent.

So if we want mlb starting pitching we need to trade for it or wait for our talent to develop. If we trade that means giving up MLB hitting talent or minor league pitching talent. I'd be excited sure if AA finds the pitchers who aren't going to be good in the AL east and trades them (like Graveman) but if we have to trade Stroman, Norris or Hoffman than I am very much against it, especially for a rental like Cueto. Cueto gives us no guarantee of a playoff spot, and knowing Gibbons he'd probably bungle it somehow anyway. But we've already lost a stud in Noah who would be our clear number one now, even over Stroman. And several other pitchers we've traded are starting for teams. I'm tired of mortgaging our future for slight upgrades in the present.

So it returns to other trade we discussed earlier. Rasmus. The cards traded him for pitching help. I feel we should (or should have) done the same. We can sign hitting talent if needed. EE seems an obvious choice for that as a marketable talent that could give a good return, especially if paired with a decent prospect for a 2/3 starter.

As for the salary cap relief for international prospects it seems most teams got relief for lesser prospects. I do agree it's not a big deal since neither will likely be stars for us.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#304666) #
I am a huge fan of John Danks' wife, which is kind of weird.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#304667) #
Who can get us a rainout?
Magpie - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#304668) #
Never mind!
raptorsaddict - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#304669) #
I haven't been following the thread so I"m not sure if this has been said, but Matt Devlin is great. Given my username I"m obviously biased, but I've been very surprised with how competent he has been.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#304670) #
Matt Devlin is great

You mean having a professional broadcaster do the play-by-play improves things?
Chuck - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#304671) #
I've been very surprised with how competent he has been.

I think we discussed this last year when Devlin filled in. He actually has a background calling baseball games. This is not foreign territory for him.

raptorsaddict - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#304672) #
Would anybody else also prefer the Jays traded Hutch instead of Norris? I would guess Norris' value is higher, but probably not by much.
Kasi - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#304673) #
Hutch has no value right now. He should be optioned and figure stuff out in AAA and bring Norris back to the majors. Even when Norris was struggling he was doing pretty well.
scottt - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#304674) #
Hutch is probably not worth much actually. Other teams probably don't care that he does well at the RC.


electric carrot - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#304675) #
He should be optioned and figure stuff out in AAA

I agree.  Let's give someone else a chance.  Hutch hasn't got it this year so far.
scottt - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#304676) #
I don't know if I'd sent Hutch to AAA just yet. He could get a home start against the Rays. Then a road start at Seattle and then another home start to finish the month. If that doesn't go well, then I'd sent him down.
Chuck - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#304677) #
Dan Johnson is back in the majors!
Kasi - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#304678) #
The weird thing is that Hutch has some of the best peripherals on the team. He also as of the other day led the pitching staff in fwar. It's just a horrible strand rate and a really bad babip. Because of all that I don't think he is going to be sent down. Him and Martin just need to figure out a game plan to minimize these disastrous innings he keeps having. As we saw from the last half inning he still has the stuff with striking out the side. He just needs to figure it out.
Chuck - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#304679) #
Umpie's strike zone has little to do with that rectangle over the plate.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#304680) #
hutch has all sorts of value. what is wrong with you guys?
scottt - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#304681) #
Sentimental value, for sure.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#304682) #
what is wrong with you guys?

Well, he's absolutely horrible to watch. He sure makes me crazy. It's like Kyle Drabek with better control. He doesn't have a clue. And why would he? He's just 24 years old and he was rushed to the majors after throwing just 250 or so innings in the minors, and he lost an entire year and a half to injury since that happened. He's still greener than the grass.

But here's the thing - he's one of the team best five starting options. As he's always been.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#304683) #
hutch shoulda stayed in for one more.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#304685) #
hutch shoulda stayed in

I don't know how tired he was, but watching him work for 2 and a quarter hours was pretty exhausting.

Geez, it's only the sixth inning?

Not exactly Buehrle-Sale, is it?
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#304686) #
Question: is Reyes even a good hitter anymore? His K rate is up, his BB rate is down significantly, his wRC+ is 87 in 251 PA. For the most part, he doesn't seem to be having very good ABs. You could make a strong case for batting Travis first (Travis would also be a good #2 hitter) and Reyes ninth - although that seems unlikely to happen, at least not in 2015.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#304687) #
is Reyes even a good hitter anymore?

My initial, quite subjective, response is that he seems to have been hitting in a bit of tough luck this season. And by gosh, that may even be true. He's actually hitting as many line drives as he's ever hit in his life, and his BABiP is somewhat below his career norms.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#304688) #
Per fangraphs, Reyes is also walking at a 4.4% clip, his lowest walk rate since 2005. His K rate is the highest it's been since 2004. His IFFB% is way up, which is consistent with what we've been seeing (tons of popups). His oppo% (percentage of balls in play that were hit to opposite field) is the lowest of his career. He's also hitting more balls at soft speed than ever before in his career, and his "hit at hard speed" percentage is down.

Definitely some red flags, if you look beyond LD% and BABIP.

Kasi - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#304689) #
I think Reyes should be flipped with Travis by next year and Dickey should likely be benched already, but Gibbons loves his veterans so that's likely not happening soon. Plus Goins and whomever our sixth starter is are not exactly pushing the issue. Hutchison like magpie says is certainly one of the five best starters we have. Just need to get the good version of him instead of th poor version. Shame Hendricks choked his lead away.
Kasi - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#304690) #
Wow Archer got hammered today by the Royals. Tampa being swept is not making me look forward to this weekend. Glad the rest of the East has been sucking worse than the Jays lately. Both the Os and Rays are worse than us lately.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#304691) #
Most of Reyes poor stata can be attributed to his ill advised attempt to hit righties from the right side when he was injured. not to mention playing thru the injury in the first place.

he's been above average (104wrc+) as a LHH this year, and way below (43wrc+) as a RHH....including a -19wrc+ as a RHH v RHP.

since he's come back from injury, he's been a dead average 100wrc+ hitter.

people forget that he was our best hitter in the first week, and then got injured and had a horrific 10 game stretch (-32wrc+) trying to play thru that cracked rib.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#304692) #
"Glad the rest of the East has been sucking worse than the Jays lately. Both the Os and Rays are worse than us lately."

I know it hurt to lose 2 series in a row for the first time in ages, but "sucking" is a bit of a strong word for it.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#304693) #
So far in July (33 PA), Reyes has zero BB. Zero! That's pretty crazy, considering that the hitters after him are Donaldson, Bautista and EE. He really should be posting an OBP higher than .300. Hopefully he'll get back to being more selective in the second half.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#304695) #
considering that the hitters after him are Donaldson, Bautista and EE.

It's possible that Donaldson-Bautista-Encarnacion has filled opposing pitchers with a little motivation to avoid giving him a free pass. At all costs. But mostly, I think he's been pressing a little bit. I don't think he's all that pleased with how he's playing, and is trying to prove he's still a good player.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 08 2015 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#304697) #
Interesting strike zone tonight. Very much a conceptual thing...
Hodgie - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#304698) #
Things I am no longer interested in seeing for the rest of this season, rational or otherwise:
  • Colabello in left field
  • Hutchison, Hendriks, or Loup on the mound
  • Greg Zaun sharing his "knowledge"
greenfrog - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#304699) #
Blech. That is all.
scottt - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 07:47 AM EDT (#304702) #

The pull of .500 is just too strong.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#304704) #
I'm not a fan of the lineup that Gibbons sent out yesterday.  With Colabello in left-field, Valencia at third base, Encarnacion at first base and Donaldson DHing, there was the obvious defensive disadvantage of Colabello in left-field and Encarnacion at first base but also no comfortable time that you could use Smoak when (as seemed inevitable from the pitching matchup) Danks was gone and RH relief came on.  I would have played Donaldson at third, Valencia in left and Colabello at first to open the game and then brought on Smoak in the middle innings for Colabello and (as Gibbons did a little late) put Carrera in left field when the club took the lead in the middle innings.  I would have given Donaldson the day off (completely) today and given Goins the start at third base; Donaldson could use the day off especially since he is getting much less of a break next week.  Donaldson leads the league in several categories- one of them is games played.

These are little things and may or may not have helped.  Colabello's play on Sanchez' line drive certainly contributed to the final result. 
jz6pwc - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#304705) #
Agreed.
Chuck - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#304706) #
is Reyes even a good hitter anymore?

His career forms a nice arc starting in his early 20s to now, at age 32. In terms of performance level, he is, sadly, back where he started, before he was able to learn how to leverage his natural gifts and become a star player. The trouble is, if there is to be a second act of consequence in the man's career, he will not have those ridiculously abundant raw skills waiting to be exploited, as he did a decade ago.

So, some questions.

Can Reyes "turn things around"? Can he, at age 32, find a higher gear than he's shown the past two years? Can his declining, yet evident, physical gifts be leveraged in ways that a veteran must (substituting smarts and experience for raw ability)? Is he sufficiently self-aware that he is not a young man any more and therefore must adapt his game to his declining body?

And from an organizational perspective, how is Reyes to be treated? At 22MM per, he's being paid to be the best player on the team for a full two seasons beyond this one, but clearly he won't be. Should he continue to receive a superstar's deference, or should the organization be tough with him and decide that he'll be batting 9th, not 1st, if that's what serves the team best, and that he'll be substituted defensively if that's what serves the team best.

Erstwhile superstars often make for troubling employees. They expect a level of treatment that is no longer reasonable and the court of public opinion often lands on their side, slow to recognize that their idols are no longer superstars.

Frankly, if Reyes and his 22MM per could magically disappear, the team would be better off. Bat Travis 1st. Bat Goins 9th. And spend that money on someone who's better than a 1-2 WAR player.

Chuck - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#304707) #
Colabello's play on Sanchez' line drive certainly contributed to the final result.

Do kids even play "pop 500" any more? I am guessing that it is long past being a thing. One kid would hit fungoes and a bunch of other kids would attempt to catch the ball. 100 points for a catch, 75 if it bounced once, 50 for two bounces, 25 otherwise. Lost points for flubbed attempts. There were always some kids who were too afraid to attempt a catch and consistently let the ball bounce, settling for 75 points

The Blue Jays need a left fielder who isn't willing to settle for 75 points. Colabello needs his LF glove retired permanently. Full credit to him for doing his best at what was asked of him, but it should no longer be asked of him. For his sake, trade him to St. Louis where he'll get plenty of AB as a first baseman and can maybe turn his nice little run into a fulltime major league job.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#304708) #
Dalton Pompey would have made the play with ease, I am pretty sure. Carrera has had his adventures on line drives this year, so it is certainly possible that the play would have had the same result but with a different aesthetic (is there anything quite so painful as the half-dive followed by glove hitting pocket and then bouncing out?).

 I was also thinking of the throw which was wide.  A good throw would have had a decent chance at the runner at the plate or (if it had been cut) would have avoided the 2nd and 3rd situation that followed. 
Ryan Day - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#304709) #
Hutchison appears to be the new, healthier Brandon Morrow: All the signs say he should be better than this, but he's just not.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#304713) #

Mike Green - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#304714) #
Healthier is a big deal.  He is also very young; by the end of his age 24 season, Morrow had never thrown more than 70 innings in a season and had 15 career starts.  Here are Hutchison's age comps from BBRef.  There are some busts and some successes.  The average player would be represented by Reggie Cleveland.

If Hutchison can be a more durable version of Morrow at age 26-27, that's a valuable pitcher.  There is a pretty decent chance that he can. 

92-93 - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#304716) #
"Having said that, who the heck is going match up well in terms of both return and the need for EE? Who has an abundance of front-line pitching that's in or near a race that needs right handed power out of DH or 1B?"

Edwin isn't getting traded, but the Metropolitans of New York continue to be the answer to all your questions. Lucas Duda has been horrendous since June started.
Spifficus - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#304719) #
Fair enough. I had become so used to Duda doing well that I hadn't checked recently. Also, the Padres could always get crazy (crazier?). Then there's the Nationals in something downright insane and creative (how do you deal with Ryan Zimmerman's contract, and which pitcher are you going after?). But yeah, the probability of Edwin getting dealt is just a smidge north of zero (he has a pulse, so it has to be non-zero).
Chuck - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#304721) #
Hutchison appears to be the new, healthier Brandon Morrow

I agree with this. An ERA not in line with a FIP. Is it just random bad luck? Or is there something systemic at the root (i.e., can we never expect Hutchison to match his FIP)? Setting aside factors that could cause a misalignment between ERA and FIP (pitcher's defense, SB/CS against pitcher, DP rate), I thought of looking at this at a high level to see if some pitchers pitch poorly in high leverage situations, thereby throwing off FIP (which assumes a normal distribution of pitching performance).

AL pitchers this year spend 57% of the time with nobody on base, and 43% with someone on base. Their OPS in these situations are:
empty: 697
men on: 730

So we'll treat that 33-point gap as "normal".

Here are some pitchers, their career gaps and the career differential between their ERA and xFIP (ERA minus XFIP).


Hutchison.. gap: 114, diff: 0.90
Morrow...... gap: 62, diff: 0.23
Burnett..... gap: 28, diff: 0.28
Halladay.... gap: 18, diff: 0.15
Dickey...... gap: 53, diff: -0.31

When Morrow was here, we used to comment that he was a different (i.e., bad) pitcher with men on base. We attributed that to issues he had pitching out of the stretch. Well, Morrow has got nothing on Hutchison, whose gap is beyond the pale (114 vs norm of 33). It's no wonder his ERA is so high. He saves his worst pitching for the worst possible time.

So the coaching staff must now try to figure out how to get Hutchison to exploit his skills so that he can pitch better with men on base. (With the bases empty, he's at .702 for his career, virtually identical to the 2015 AL mark of .697). Can Hutchison improve? I have no idea. But it seems foolhardy to keep leaning on his FIP as a sure sign that he will improve since there may indeed be something systemic, and not just random chance, causing him to underperform with men on base.

uglyone - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#304722) #
"And spend that money on someone who's better than a 1-2 WAR player."

Reyes has earned 1.1war just since getting off the DL.
uglyone - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#304723) #
People still believed that Morrow's ERA would catch up to his peripherals when he was 29, and now people are giving up on hutch at 24?

he's 24, people.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#304724) #
Reyes' WAR range seems to be 1.5-3.5 depending on whether you accept the DRS or UZR version of his defensive abilities.  There's been a wide disparity for 5 years.  Subjectively, I think that DRS is closer to accurate but you'd probably be better to simply use an average.  If he hits the way he has over the period 2013-2015, he's still an average player, but as Chuck suggests, very frustrating.  The 2015 W/K and that pop-up rate (24.7%) just won't do and the soft pulled contact isn't much better...

It would be ideal to have a right-handed hitting shortstop backup to give him regular days off.

Jevant - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#304725) #
Jose pretty clearly seems to be pressing as has been noted.  I can't imagine he continues to pop up double his career rate either, so some of these numbers should stabilize a little bit.  Hopefully.

Interested to see the lineup today...who gets a day off. Gotta think Smoak at 1B, EE at DH (if they are both in the lineup), and maybe Carrera in LF?  Wouldn't be shocked to see one of Travis or Reyes have the day off in favour of Goins either.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#304726) #
Chuck, Hutchison's issue this year has not been performance with no one on and runners on base.  His wOBA is .342 in the first situation and .349 in the second. This year, the problem is BABIP in both situations (.358 overall).  His line drive rate is high, but so too is his pop-up rate. 

After 340 innings of his career, Hutchison has an ERA of 4.75 and FIP and xFIP of 3.90 and 3.85.  I think that all three figures are meaningful in projecting him, and that there is an element of bad luck.  I don't know whether you properly weight things 1/3-2/3, 1/2-1/2 or 2/3-1/3, but I think that it is somewhere in there. 
Ryan Day - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#304727) #
The point is that it's not necessarily as simple as waiting for his ERA to match his peripherals, and ignoring other factors - defence, pitching with runners on, etc - that could be influencing it.

If you want to call one bad season luck, then OK, I can get behind that; I definitely thought Hutchison had all the tools last year to break out in 2015. But that didn't happen, and the discrepancy between what you'd expect and what actually happened is even bigger now.

Anyway, I don't think anyone was arguing we should give up on Hutchison, but rather that we should lower expectations. He's 24, he's got talent, he's cheap. Treat him as a 4th/5th starter, and you might get a pleasant surprise some day. (If the rotation were slightly stronger, I might even send him to AAA for a month or two.) But you can't keep claiming he's really a good pitcher when he's getting beaten like a gong every two or three starts.
mathesond - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#304731) #
Chuck, in Etobicoke, we called it 500 Up. That name made it to Halifax as well...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGBKGd0ma5Q
hypobole - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#304732) #
If there are other teams out there who agree that Hutch will be fine in the future, then he should have plenty enough value to fetch/help fetch someone who is fine now, which is kinda what we need.
uglyone - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#304733) #
I have no problem trading hutch as a large piece in getting a top end starter.

and mike - hutch's career siera (basically fip adjusted by batted ball profile) is better than all of those at 3.73.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#304734) #
Obviously Hutchison is not a really good pitcher right now.  Heck, he's probably not even an average starting pitcher.  He has a career ERA+ of 83, and even if you are kind to him, it ought to be in the 90-95 range.  Incidentally, Hutchison has given up very few unearned runs in his career.  His RA/9 for his career is 4.88/9IP compared with 4.51 for the league which is quite a bit better than the ERA+ would suggest.

Chuck - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#304736) #
in Etobicoke, we called it 500 Up.

Rings a bell. Growing up in Montreal, we did use that name as well. "500 Up" and "Pop 500".

A variation, "Suicide 500", developed in Burlington in my high school years, where the mission was less to accrue points yourself than to cause others to accrue negative points via blatant and calculated body contact. This variation of the game was aimed less at future outfielders than at future cornerbacks. I was more than happy to assume the role of fungomeister.

bpoz - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#304737) #
I am still trying to figure out if this Blue Jay team is good or mediocre. A 44-43 record suggests mediocre rather than good.
If this team was 5 games different 49-38 then I would say that we are good. Then I do not mind making a trade to get over the top.
The David Cone trade was good, even though Jeff Kent fooled everyone. The 1992 team was good in the won/lost column. That trade looks very different if we do not win the WS.
Detroit's Doyle Alexander for John Smolz trade was not a good one because because Detroit got lucky with a late win streak and winning so many 1 run games. I assume that Smolz fooled everyone as well. Detroit did not win the WS. I assume that Detroit's run of good luck ran out in the playoffs.
Chuck - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#304738) #
Chuck, Hutchison's issue this year has not been performance with no one on and runners on base.

Wow, I didn't even think to check. His empty/men-on splits are 784/795 this season (AL average: 697/730). This truly is a bizarro season for him.

uglyone - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#304739) #
Jays as SP by age 24 (since 1990, min 150ip):

Hutchison: 341.1ip, 4.75era, 3.90fip

Halladay: 163.2ip, 5.83era, 3.86fip
Carpenter: 377.2ip, 4.62era, 4.14fip
Escobar: 389.2ip, 5.06era, 4.51fip

Chacin: 217.0ip, 3.61era, 4.18fip
Litsch: 293.0ip, 3.81era, 4.71fip
Hentgen: 221.2ip, 3.90era, 4.63fip

Romero: 178.0ip, 4.30era, 4.33fip
Alvarez: 251.0ip, 4.52era, 4.87fip
Cecil: 389.0ip, 4.65era, 4.69fip
Drabek: 161.0ip, 5.14era, 5.40fip

Mike Green - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#304740) #
It was "500 up" in downtown TO in the 60s. 

Does anyone else find it strange that Clayton Kershaw might not be on the All-Star team?  He's obviously not having the best season of his career, but he's equally obviously the best pitcher in major league baseball right now if you take any kind of longer view.  His closest BBRef comp is Tom Seaver. At age 27, Seaver had an off-year and posted an ERA+ of 115.  Was he an All-Star?  Of course.

dalimon5 - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#304741) #
I think we're missing the bigger questions here regarding Hutch in 2015 and in relation to some of the pitchers we're talking about trading:

Is Hutchison better than Norris/Hoffman right now? By end of season? Next season?
dalimon5 - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#304742) #
All the more reason to include him in a trade instead of Hoffman/Norris/Osuna.

Any one think Hutch has more value than those guys right now?
Jevant - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#304743) #
It's crazy that Kershaw isn't on the AS team.  I don't care, if you offered me any starting pitcher in the league to win a single game and asked me who I wanted, it would be Kershaw without thinking twice.  That guy should be on the All Star team (and I assume he will be, when inevitably some arms back out because they pitched on Sunday or whatever).  But it is nuts that he isn't already named to the team.
Rich - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#304744) #
To my eyes (not looking at pitches per AB or similar stats) Reyes has simply lost his plate discipline.  He is swinging at lots of bad pitches.  He is still a decent hitter but will decline rapidly and outlive his usefulness as a leadoff hitter if he continues.

Hutch may well have a career as a mid-rotation guy and he looks great at times but I have no issue replacing or trading him.  Moving him now, however, would certainly be selling low.  I think he is better than he has shown but he is absolutely killing the club and they have a real shot at the post-season this year.

JB21 - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#304746) #
I agree, although it is worth noting that in Kershaw's career, he almost always loses those games and doesn't pitch up to Kershaw standards. Not even close.
uglyone - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#304747) #
"Is Hutchison better than Norris/Hoffman right now? By end of season? Next season?"

I'd put pretty even odds on all of them.

by age 22 (generous as hutch missed his entire age 22 year):

Hutch (MLB): 58.2ip, 4.60era, 4.48fip
Norris (MLB): 30.0ip, 4.20era, 5.26fip

Norris (AAA): 92.1ip, 3.51era, 2.98fip
Hutch (AAA*): 19.0ip, 6.63era, 4.05fip (* - rehab)

Hutch (AA): 39.1ip, 2.29era, 2.14fip
Norris (AA): 35.2ip, 4.54era, 4.03fip

Norris (A+): 71.1ip, 1.14era, 2.06fip
Hutch (A+): 62.1ip, 2.74era, 2.76fip
Hoffman (A+): 49.1ip, 3.47era, 3.78fip



Mike Green - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#304748) #
Navarro DHs for Encarnacion today and Goins plays short for Reyes. 
Spifficus - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#304749) #
The interesting (and painful) thing about Hutchison's year is that he's getting used, abused, chewed up and spit back out the third time through the order. I know that it's not uncommon for the third time through to be a pitcher's roughest (whereas the fourth is usually good due to survivor's bias), but a 1.015 OPS is especially nasty. This is going to lead to clustering bad things together more than usual, and that leads to the 4+ run innings this team produces on both sides of the ledger.

The question with Hutchison is whether this is just horrible luck or if its due to major changeup issues this year (the swinging strike rate on it is at 7.7, about half what it was last year). If it's the latter, that reduces him to effectively a two pitch pitcher. In the average start, pitchers seem to have an inning or two where a pitch abandons them (whether it's location on the fastball, or hanging sliders, etc). Without a third decent pitch, his clustering might not be an issue of luck, but one of skill.
Chuck - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#304751) #
This is going to lead to clustering bad things together more than usual

And to quick hooks like last night's, after 5 innings and 85 pitches. A little more BABIP luck -- and Pillar not losing one in the twilight -- and he'd have been a run and about 10 pitches lighter.

vw_fan17 - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#304752) #
We often just called it "500" (K-W in the 80s/90s).
Chuck - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#304756) #
Ah, travel days. 2 innings done. 12 up, 12 down.
Jevant - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#304757) #
Can we just have Matt Devlin permanently?  Have Buck call the Raptors.
Chuck - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#304759) #
Samardzija is apparently auditioning for the Jays as we speak. How do you like me now?
Jevant - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#304760) #
It's a good audition to this moment, that's for sure.
Magpie - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#304761) #
Oops. He Bucknered it.
Jevant - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#304762) #
And yet somehow I don't think the reaction will be as strong as when Reyes did the same thing...SN cameras haven't spent every single moment on Smoak since.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#304763) #
Samardzija has obviously lost it.  5 inning pitcher.  Stay away, AA.
Jevant - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#304764) #
Did Dickey just shove Eaton out of frustration at home plate there?  Weird moment.
Hodgie - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#304765) #
It (the shove) looked somewhat playful but then again I only saw it once. That said, I sure hope Martin shoves Dickey the next next he allows himself to get beat on a BP fastball.

Being swept in Houston was not that hard to take, the team didn't play great but Houston is obviously a good team. Losing 3 of 4 to Chicago is something altogether different. On a related note, whoever broke Bautista, please fix him. No names need be released to the public.

Hodgie - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#304766) #
That said, I sure hope Martin shoves Dickey the next next he allows himself to get beat on a BP fastball.

The previous message was apparently brought to you by Jacob Two Two and the Hooded Fang.

hypobole - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#304767) #
Jays are once again moving toward the "neither a buyer nor seller be" territory that has become their patented trademark.
92-93 - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#304768) #
In 8 starts since the calendar turned to June, RA Dickey has thrown 50.2ip with a 3.73era. Mmmmmmmmmmm, tooooooooooast.
Lylemcr - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#304769) #
Where did our super offense go? :(
Hodgie - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#304770) #
I know this is partly a function of having so many runners on base, but after 2 more GIDP today the Jays have now moved into second place in MLB in that category. If there are a set number of ways to frustrate a fan base, this team sure seems to have those covered.

My previous comment regarding Dickey was of course not meant to insinuate he was responsible for today's loss. He has actually pitched more than adequately as of late - I just don't like watching the knuckleball in general and would at least prefer if he is going to be beat it is with his best pitch and not 80MPH fastballs over the heart of the plate.

JB21 - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#304771) #
Also, right handed hitters that hit the ball hard.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#304772) #
Dickey has allowed 4.5 runs/game since he arrived here.  That's a little better than Hutchison.  The major difference, of course, is their respective ages.
Hodgie - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#304773) #
Speaking of the enjoyment factor, this might be the least enjoyable Jays rotation to watch (for me at least) in quite some time. I find Hutchison and Dickey are the epitome of frustrating and I spend each Estrada start waiting for the next pitch to be launched 500ft. Even as he struggled I found Sanchez at least intriguing to watch and I sorely miss Stroman. As it is, Buehrle is the only one I look forward to watching at the moment and Norris can't return to MLB fast enough.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#304774) #
I think the Jays finally broke Pythagoras. Somewhere, in a parallel universe, the Jays are swaggering about with the best record in the AL. Meanwhile, in this one, the Jays are trapped in some sort of cosmic loop in which players have hangdog expressions and all seasons end within four or five games of .500.
Chuck - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#304775) #
and would at least prefer if he is going to be beat it is with his best pitch and not 80MPH fastballs over the heart of the plate.

The fastball was on a 0-out, 3-1 count to their 5-foot nothing leadoff hitter. Sometimes he has to roll the dice to avoid a walk.

The big blow was Cabrera's homerun off a knuckleball.

Chuck - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#304777) #
I think the Jays finally broke Pythagoras.

Or they long ago entered a Faustian bargain where they would eventually carry the water for the 2012 Orioles, who finished 11 games better than Pythagoras. Remember how much you liked it when I turned one of your journeymen into Babe Ruth? Three years hence I can arrange for you to be gifted one of baseball's best players. But there will be a price.

ayjackson - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#304778) #
ages and wages, MG
Hodgie - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#304779) #
Sure Chuck, so long as you ignore how often his roll comes up snake-eyes. It also looked like Eaton was sitting on the fastball, thinking the exact same thing. This gets back to why I loathe the knuckleball, batting practice fastballs positioned as an acceptable risk mitigation strategy.
BlueJayWay - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#304780) #
+82 run differential (still best in the AL). If you had told me that would be the case after 88 games I'd have leapt for joy, since that would certainly mean they're 50-38 or 52-36 or something.
Four Seamer - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#304781) #

I note, with some amusement, that on a site where this .500 team is often discussed as a juggernaut because of its context-independent run differential, suddenly context is king and Dickey is being criticized for his efforts in a game in which said juggernaut scored precisely zero runs.  I'd have thought we'd be praising him for keeping the team in the thick of the pythagorean pennant race, even when the lumber was in a slumber. 

Chuck - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#304783) #
This gets back to why I loathe the knuckleball

Hate the knuckleball. Hate the knuckleballer. Hate whatever you want. It's not my place to try to convince what not to hate. It just seems odd that you are choosing today to be so openly irritated. Dickey gave up 2 runs in 7 innings. You do that 33 times a year and they give you the Cy Young.

Alex Obal - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#304788) #
This team is a juggernaut. The 2006 (everything), 2008 (run prevention) and 2014 (hitting) teams were juggernauts too. I'm not sure what's neutralizing the talent. Something in the water?

Seriously, if the 2015 Jays don't make the playoffs, I'll be a little surprised. Not shocked, but surprised. They're built for the dog days. They should be pulverizing almost every lefty, and almost every 4 and 5 starter, for the next two months. If I had to take one team in the East to win the division at 3/1 right now, it would be Toronto. (Although that's largely because I still expect the Yankees to fade, killer bullpen and all, so feel free to call me crazy.)
BlueJayWay - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#304789) #
Don't look now but the AL East has tumbled back down to just 2 wins over .500.
scottt - Thursday, July 09 2015 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#304792) #
It's too bad because it's very unlikely that Toronto will be the most improved team of the division comes the trade deadline.
ayjackson - Friday, July 10 2015 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#304793) #
agreed...probably about 4 to 1
JB21 - Friday, July 10 2015 @ 01:26 AM EDT (#304794) #
Although, the Jays could improve by the additions of Saunders, Pompey, Norris, Castro, Stroman, etc.
Mike Green - Friday, July 10 2015 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#304800) #
I wish the club would call up Pompey and give him the everyday leftfield job and install Smoak as the everyday first baseman. 

If you compare the Blue Jays and Royals, there isn't much difference except in one area.  Blue Jays pitchers strike out more and walk fewer.  They give up more home runs, but a significant part of that has to do with the parks.  The Royals' defence is, of course, much better.  The Blue Jays hit for a lower average, draw more walks and hit many more home runs (but a significant part of that has to do with the parks).  In the result, the Royals' run prevention is better than the Blue Jays at about the same level as the Blue Jay offence is better than the Royal offence.  The significant difference is in leveraging.  The Royals' pitching staff (really run prevention 'team') has a WPA of about 4; the Blue Jays' pitching staff has a WPA of about -5.  They've just done enough to lose. It is funny because the club's bullpen is 5th in the league in FIP and 7th in ERA, yet they have the worst WPA by far. 

It seems to me that the easiest thing to do is to make sure the defence is as good as possible.  That means Pompey and Smoak.  It would have the side benefit of making the club less vulnerable to late-inning hard-throwing right-handed relief.

Nigel - Friday, July 10 2015 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#304801) #
I agree - I would bring Pompey back up but I would institute a Valencia or Colabello platoon with Smoak at 1B. There is no universe in which you want Smoak getting regular ABs as a RHB. I would also bring up Norris and put him in the pen with a view to giving him multiple inning appearances behind Hutchison and whoever is the 5th starter/flavor of the day.
Mike Green - Friday, July 10 2015 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#304802) #
I agree that theoretically I'd prefer Valencia at first base vs. LHPs. However, given that Smoak has been under-used to date and is the better defender, I'd rather if he played 6 days in every 7 come hell or high water.  Gibbons would also do better, I feel, with a set lineup. 

And as for Norris to the pen,  absolutely yes. 
Jonny German - Friday, July 10 2015 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#304804) #
I'd go with a Smoak-Colabello platoon at first base, but I'm not too fussed about it. I don't think it's a major upgrade over the current situation of following Gibbons' daily whims. Conversely, Pompey as the everyday left fielder seems blindingly obvious to me, a huge upgrade over the misadventures of Colabello/Valencia/Carrera/Goins (seriously, Goins?).

And I'd dump Valencia for a D-prospect to make room on the roster. He's a fine lefty-masher, but this team is stacked with lefty-mashers. He's a fine backup third baseman, but this team's best player is a very durable third baseman. If Donaldson needs a day off, the difference between Goins and Valencia at third base is not a big deal. If Donaldson needs 3 weeks on the DL, the team needs someone much better than Valencia to fill in.
Mike Green - Friday, July 10 2015 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#304805) #
The big issue is that Smoak has not received sufficient starts even when a RH starter is faced.  The Jays have faced RH starters 67 times.  Smoak has got the start in 28 of them. 
Jonny German - Friday, July 10 2015 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#304806) #
Smoak is hitting righties to the tune of .241/.331/.473 in 127 PA.
Colabello is at .318/.352/.461 in 162 PA.

I'll grant you that Smoak's D very well may make up for more than Colabello's small offensive edge. But I don't believe it's a huge difference. And while no one saw Colabello's performance coming, Smoak has also been a pleasant surprise - which is to say, neither is guaranteed to keep hitting as well as they have.
Jonny German - Friday, July 10 2015 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#304807) #
Spoke too quickly. Now I'll be hearing about BABIP. Fair enough.
Chuck - Friday, July 10 2015 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#304808) #
It seems to me that the easiest thing to do is to make sure the defence is as good as possible.

Reserve outfielder Jarrod Dyson is filling in for the injured Alex Gordon. How highly is he thought of as a defender? The Royals are moving Cain to LF to make room for Dyson in CF.

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