Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
This is the first in a series of profiles of players who are potential Hall of Famers. I will look briefly at their career history, how they compare at this stage in their career with other greats, and what to expect from them in the future. We’ll start with the catchers.

Ivan Rodriguez had a terrific season at age 32 for the Tigers, hitting .334/.383/.510 and leading them to a 29 game improvement in the standings. He caught 124 games, low for him, but, as we shall see, typical of catchers his age. He has now caught 1688 games. This was the also the year that he reached a number of significant career markers, 1000 runs scored and driven in, 2000 hits, 250 homers.

Pudge arrived in the majors at age 19, with no triple A experience and only 50 games at double A. He had hit .274/.294/.389 in double A Tulsa, but the Rangers were so impressed with his defence that he got the call. His arm was indeed fabulous, and within a year or two, he was the consensus best defensive catcher in the majors. He hit .260 with 3 homers in 280 at-bats his first season, but over the next 4-5 years, his average and power steadily improved. His plate discipline was poor when he arrived in the majors, and has improved more slowly than the other aspects of his offensive game but it is now average.

How does Rodriguez compare with his peers at age 32? Here’s a chart that sets out the career lines at age 32 of comparable catchers:

Player    G     AB    R     H     HR    W     BA    OBP   SLUG   GAMES CAUGHT(AT 32)
I-Rod 1758 6694 1014 2051 250 400 .306 .347 .480 124
Simmons 1801 6644 854 1931 209 679 .291 .359 .453 121
Yogi 1474 5508 897 1598 252 514 .290 .355 .492 121
Bench 1877 6771 1001 1811 356 813 .267 .348 .482 105
Carter 1828 6063 847 1646 271 680 .271 .350 .461 122


So, what next for Pudge? Looking at his peers might be a start. After age 32, Ted Simmons had one season left of catching. He caught 86 games that year, and then finished out his career as a DH. Yogi did a little better, catching for significant parts of 3 more seasons between 63 and 116 games per year, and playing outfield and first base. By age 32, Johnny Bench was done as a catcher, while Gary Carter had 2 more seasons left.

Pudge’s career path is more favorable than any of his peers here. He’s hitting as well as ever, if not better. My guess is that he’ll follow the Yogi career path and catch between 250-300 more games. However, his slow steady improvement with the stick will, in my opinion, lead to a productive end of career as a DH. Pudge’s career line, using the Green projection method:

.297/.350/.488, 375 homers, 1450 runs scored, 1550 runs driven in

With his defensive skill, he’s basically achieved Johnny Bench’s career already. When he’s done, I don’t think that there will be any question who the greatest catcher is.

Next up: Mike Piazza.


Hall Watch 2004-The Catchers-Ivan Rodriguez | 28 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Mick - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#23036) #
Hall-worthiness is a different animal than Hall-likelihood, of course. Pudge II has both, but it's also true that if he turns into Chad Kreuter starting Opening Day '05 until he retires, he's in on reputation alone.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#23037) #
I don't know, Mick. Johnny Bench was an easy HOFer, and hit .267/.342/.476 for his career. While he wasn't Chad Kreuter after age 32, he hit .267 with 33 homers in 880 ABs over 3 part seasons from age 33-35. He was a miserable third baseman/first baseman over that period.
_Jim - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#23038) #
The only debate with Pudge is first ballot or not.
_Jim - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#23039) #
The only debate with Pudge is first ballot or not.
_Jim - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#23040) #
Same with Piazza.
Gerry - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#23041) #
The HOF rewards longevity as much as performance. I think I-rod needs at least two, and maybe three more years, to get his games played as a catcher over 2000 and to get to 300 home runs. Then he should be a lock.

Good work Mike.
_Jabonoso - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#23042) #
Good work Mike.
Do you think that the nationality issue will matter at the time he may be elected?.
( i can imagine a Cinci voter with the numbers in front of him saying: " what, are you trying to compare this guy with Bench, Johnny Bench..." )
I guess they will see this kind of statistics primarily, but for a catcher they will also check some numbers about his fielding and arm.
For Pudge, stolen bases will be a premium too.
_Mark J - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#23043) #
I note I-Rod's OPS+ is 116 whereas Bench's was 126, and I-Rod hasn't had his decline phase yet (to be sure, he's still hitting well and may still raise that career mark). Geez, if he catches another couple of years and DHs or plays 1b for four more he could well have 3000 hits. Wow, Piazza's career OPS+ is 150!

I don't see how there's much case to keep I-Rod out, even now: he scores at 48.5 on HOF Standards (avg = 50) and 182 on HOF Monitor (likely > 100) already.

One possible concern is that his #1 comp, Ted Simmons (career OPS+ 118) is not in, but surely I-Rod's defense is a lot better.

Personally I would like to see peak performance rewarded a little more than longevity anyway, but I don't get a vote :(
_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#23044) #
Johnny Bench was an easy HOFer, and hit .267/.342/.476 for his career.

Bench's career OPS+ was 126. Rodriguez is at 116. We shouldn't ignore the offensive contexts in which they played.
_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#23045) #
For Pudge, stolen bases will be a premium too.

Rodriguez SB-CS: 97-50
Bench: 68-43

While IRod's soon-to-be 100+ stolen bases may well unduly resonate with the voters, his 66% success rate is below the break-even mark. Thus, his base stealing has, on balance, hurt his teams more than it has helped.

Bench's success rate of 61% is probably comparable to IRod's 66% given the offensive levels in Bench's day.
_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#23046) #
Geez, if he catches another couple of years and DHs or plays 1b for four more he could well have 3000 hits.

In all seriousness, can anyone recall the last short man to play first base? Rodriguez can't be any taller than 5'8" or 5'9" (though he's probably listed at 6'0" in the guides).
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#23047) #
Thanks for the compliments. Chuck and Mark J's point about context is very well taken, even if HOF voters are as likely as not to ignore it.

To answer Jabonoso's question, I honestly don't think that nationality will enter into the discussion or even thought process at all when Pudge becomes eligible for the HOF in 10-15 years.
_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#23048) #
To answer Jabonoso's question, I honestly don't think that nationality will enter into the discussion or even thought process at all when Pudge becomes eligible for the HOF in 10-15 years.

If Jabonoso's concern is that there will be prejudice against a Hispanic, he need only consider the recent induction of Tony Perez, a player with borderline (if that) HoF qualifications.

I agree with Mike that Rodriguez's nationality will play no factor at all. He is a much beloved and respected player.
_Magpie - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#23049) #
can anyone recall the last short man to play first base?

Steve Garvey was 5-10. He was only a 3B because he couldn't throw, of course...

The HOF rewards longevity as much as performance. I think I-rod needs at least two, and maybe three more years, to get his games played as a catcher over 2000

Yeah, but no one expects catchers to play 2000 games. Hardly any in the history of the game have lasted that long. Fisk, Carter, Bob Boone... anyone else?
_Jabonoso - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#23050) #
Thanks Mike for your response. I guess you are right, nationality will matter less and less in the american game...
Another thiing is if there has been prejudice against hispanics. It is not a simple answer. In the hall you find, what, 7 hispanics?, no Tony Oliva or Luis Tiant as a sample, that are believed to belong by many. But on the other side is Martin Dihigo, one of the best players ever, from Cuba and he did not even played in the majors. Times are changing, the number of Hispanic players is increasing exponentially, and if you make, for example, an all Dominican team, you end up with problems like who's in ss A-Rod or Tejada, who's your DH Manny or Ortiz, etc.
Regards
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#23051) #
I think that's it. Al Lopez held the record for the longest time with about 1950 games caught (a fair number of those being 1 or 2 inning jobs).

Steve Garvey was 5-10. He was only a 3B because he couldn't throw

Now there's a classic baseball typo :)
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#23052) #
Jabonoso, Hispanic ballplayers did not play in the "major leagues" until the post-war era. I do not think that nationality has played much of a role, if any, in HOF decisions, to date.

Tony Oliva was a great ballplayer in his 20s, who was terribly hobbled by knee injuries and really did not have much of a career after the age of 30 as a result. You'll find relatively few players in the Hall of this type, although there are definitely some.

Luis Tiant is a different case. His two most comparable pitchers according to Baseball Reference are Catfish Hunter and Jim Bunning, both of whom are in the Hall. I think it's safe to say that both would be considered "marginally qualified". I find it really hard to separate Tiant and Bunning. I'm not sure whether both should be in or both should be out, but there is no reason for one to be in and the other out.

In any event, I expect that there will be an explosion of Hispanic ballplayers in the Hall in the next 15 years- the Rodriguezes, Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez to start, and probably 5 more.
_Magpie - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#23053) #
if you make, for example, an all Dominican team, you end up with problems like who's in ss A-Rod or Tejada

Alex Rodriguez was born in New York City, and I think (I don't kno) that his family is Cuban rather than Dominican. He's a "Hispanic" ballplayer in the same way that Alex Gonzalez (born in Miami) is an Hispanic ballplayer. Or the same way that Lou Gehrig (born in New York City) was a German ballplayer.

If Catfish Hunter was a Hall of Famer, so was Luis Tiant. I actually think Bunning might have been a little better than both of them.

On the other hand, Tony Perez is in the Hall of Fame and Darrell Evans is not.
_Magpie - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#23054) #
He was only a 3B because he couldn't throw

Let's try that again...

He was a 3B who couldn't throw so they moved him to 1B...

He was only a 1B because he couldn't throw....

They thought it would make the other infielders concentrate on throwing accuracy if they had the shortest 1B in the major leagues...

It was probably the last ML infield where the only guy who stood 6 feet tall was the shortstop...
_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#23055) #
... who was a converted outfielder. And wasn't Lopes as well? He certainly ended his career in the OF, but a little voice (one of many) inside of me says he started there as well.
_Mick - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#23056) #
Bill Russell was the one who started as an OF.
_Braby21 - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#23057) #
This guy is killing Vernon, and even tried to put Wilner in a bad spot.
_Jabonoso - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#23058) #
Mike, there were white hispanics playing in the majors since the beginning of the game, eg Melo Ahumada, a mexican that played in the 30's. Before him cubans like Almeida, Marsans...
Magpie, Alex and Manny were born in NY both from Dominican parents, Manny says he is dominican and Alex could be but he prefers to be american. I saw in a dominican periodical the Dominican all stars for this year and they had there this kind of discussion: Pujols at first, Soriano at second, either A-Rod or Tejada, Furcal utility, Beltre at third, Vlad in right, Alou or Sammy in left, Guillen in center. etc
By the way, ARod just apologized to fellow dominicans for introducing himself as american in ALCS. Story in espndeportes.espn.go.com/story?id=273953 he said " soy mas dominicano que el platano "
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 26 2004 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#23059) #
True, Jabonoso, but the great players in the majors prior to Jackie Robinson were not Hispanic.

There probably should be recognition for Hispanic stars prior to 1948, as there is for Negro League stars. I don't know who they are, but if you'd like to tell me more about it, I'd gladly do a piece here on them. I read a fascinating article on a great black Cuban pitcher playing for a Cuban team in Key West in the early 1900s. I would like to know more.
_Mick - Wednesday, October 27 2004 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#23060) #
Wasn't Dolf Luque, who won 194 games from 1914-35 (including 27 in 1923) essentially as or more dark-skinned than most players in the Negro Leagues? He was born in Havana, and I think I recall him having the same kind of classic Cuban dark features as Orlando Hernandes. Heh! Luque and Duque! Maybe we can get a TV show made about them, wacky cousins driving a car called Generalissimo Lee.
_Mick - Wednesday, October 27 2004 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#23061) #
I totally take it back. Found an image of Luque online andm while Cuban, definitiely NOT dark-skinned. But I'm sure there was a pitcher in that era who fit that criteria.
_Jabonoso - Wednesday, October 27 2004 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#23062) #
Yesterday passed away the best position player born in Mexico: Beto Avila. He played in the 50 for the Cleveland Indians, was a champion bat and a gold glove as second baseman ( i've heard that he was the best 2nd baseman of his time ) One thing that tells a lot of the how was the baseball world in the 40 is the following anecdote. On why Beto Avila did not played in the majors during the forties. Seven teams tried to sign him from 44 to 48 ( Washington, Dodgers etc.) and he did not liked the offers that did not guaranteed a direct start in the bigs. The indians scout learned that he cherised about being champion bat of seven different leagues ( mexican summer, winter, Venezuelan summer and winter, Cuban, Dominican and the Veracruz winter league ) and told him that going to the international league AAA, he would have just another title in a different league. He won the batting title in the IL and was then promoted to the bigs. He won the batting title in 54 playing with a broken finger. Ted Williams once said that if there was a pure hitter that could topple his over .400 record, was Mr Avila.
Even though his MLB acomplishments were not great, he was good enough to be in a shrine like the HOF...
Craig B - Wednesday, October 27 2004 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#23063) #
Mick, a few Cuban players fit that bill. One in particular was Pedro Dibut... that picture makes him look lighter-skinned than others I have seen. Dibut pitched for the Reds in 1924 and 1925 - and in the Negro Leagues in 1923.

Manuel "Potato" Cueto played for the Reds from 1917-1919. Hard to tell from this picture, but again, in other pictures I've seen Cueto looks as much black as Spanish.

There's also Bobby Estalella, who is the grandfather of Bobby Estalella who played for the Jays this year. He played for the Senators, Browns, and A's in the 30s and 40s.

Also, Armando Marsans, one of the first Cubans to join the Reds.
Hall Watch 2004-The Catchers-Ivan Rodriguez | 28 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.