Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Lilly signs, Hillenbrand & Walker Exchange Numbers, and a Trade

Lilly signs, Hillenbrand & Walker Exchange Numbers, and a Trade

Ted Lilly avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 1 year, $4 million contract. Lilly can also earn up to $200,000 more based on innings pitched.

The Jays exchanged figures with Hillenbrand and Walker. Hillenbrand has asked for $6.7 million with the Jays offering $5.0 million and Walker has asked for $850,000 with the Jays offering $575,000.

Additionally, the Jays acquired LHP Brian Tallet from the Indians in exchange for RHP Bubbie Buzachero. Tallet was recently designated for assignment by the Indians.

Lilly's contract was $1 million lower than yesterday's estimate. As a result the payroll stands at approximately $69.0 million (assuming $750,000 for Walker and $5.5 million for Hillenbrand).

Thanks to Brian W for pointing out the Lilly link.

Posted by Pistol on Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 02:05 PM EST.

Lilly signs, Hillenbrand & Walker Exchange Numbers, and a Trade | 109 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Jevant - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 02:09 PM EST (#139858) #

That's a good fair amount for Ted. A good year and he'll get a bit more than that in his next contract.

einsof - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 02:19 PM EST (#139859) #

I think the Jays are in a good situation with Lilly as he will really try to showcase himself so that he can go into next year's negotiations from a position of strength. So hopefully we get the benefit of a good year out of Lilly before we part ways at the end of this year.

Mike Green - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 02:26 PM EST (#139861) #

Here's the question for the afternoon. Should John Gibbons platoon Hinske and Hillenbrand at DH or should Hillenbrand be the everyday DH?

Here are their 1 and 3 year splits against right-handed pitchers:

           Hillenbrand       Hinske
1 year     .279/.336/.426    .283/.359/.452
3 year     .285/.329/.438    .253/.334/.416

Hillenbrand is in his final year of arbitration while Hinske has another year to go on his contract.

Pistol - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 02:46 PM EST (#139863) #

Assuming full health and 1800 ABs between 1B, 3B, and DH I'd probably go with something along the lines of:

Glaus 550
Overbay 550
Hillenbrand 425
Hinske 275

Mike Green - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 02:53 PM EST (#139864) #

I'd platoon them at DH, and let Hillenbrand give Glaus a day off against righties once every 2 weeks or so. Hinske might end up with 375 ABs and Hillenbrand 350.

Jonny German - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 02:54 PM EST (#139865) #

I expect Hinske to out-hit Hillenbrand by a significant amount when facing righties, but I also expect Hillenbrand to be much better in the first half than the second... so, to get maximum value out of each (which is good for the '06 team, good for the chances of getting draft picks should Hillenbrand sign elsewhere, and good for making trading Hinske a realistic option next offseason), I'd start with Hillenbrand getting ~75% of the DH at-bats at the beginning of the season and gradually shift to more & more Hinske, ending at something like 60% Hinske.

I bet John Gibbons looks at comments like this one and has a good chuckle. "It don't work that way in the real world, son."

binnister - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 02:57 PM EST (#139866) #

Could the delay on getting Hillenbrand signed indicate that perhaps a multi-year contract (2-3y) is being worked out?

Wildrose - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 03:13 PM EST (#139867) #

Should John Gibbons platoon Hinske and Hillenbrand at DH or should Hillenbrand be the everyday DH?

I honestly think that it's going to be neither. Like it or not, I think the team is dead serious about moving Hinske to leftfield, unless Rios absolutely crushes the ball in spring training. I think Gibbons will give some time to Hillenbrand at third/first with Glaus/Overbay spending that particular day at D.H.

Paul - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 03:38 PM EST (#139869) #

Relatively short time subscriber, first time contributor.
What is the chance of trading Lilly before the trade deadline in July? Obviously, to make a push for the playoffs, seeing as the Jays are going to kick ass. Would it be possible to add a bat in someone like Bobby Abreu?
As we all know, this is Lilly's walk year, right?

Mike Green - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 03:52 PM EST (#139871) #

I honestly think that it's going to be neither. Like it or not, I think the team is dead serious about moving Hinske to leftfield, unless Rios absolutely crushes the ball in spring training.

It's funny. Hinske was moved from third to first because the team believed that his defence was hurting the club. There is pretty good evidence that the move had a significant impact on the team's fortunes in 2005, compared with 2004. The team DER went way up, and runs allowed went way down.

It seemed to me that JP was merely musing about the possibility, and so that's why I asked what should be done rather than for a prediction about what would be.

HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 04:04 PM EST (#139872) #

I actually think he was moved because we signed Koskie. We signed Koskie because he was willing to come and he was a canuck (That was a reason).

Cristian - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 04:05 PM EST (#139873) #

Anything is possible Paul. Though in my view, the only team that would want a halfyear rental would be a team that is going for a title. This though, would mean that the team would have to hold on to all the Bobby Abreus it has in order to make a run at the World Series.

It doesn't really matter though because if the Jays are out of it and in a position to trade Lilly, why would they take on an Abreu-like contract for half the year?

This is why most half year rentals are traded for prospects.

Wildrose - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 04:39 PM EST (#139875) #

The team DER went way up, and runs allowed went way down.

I think Ricciardi has minimized the overall value of defence given his off-season moves. Objectively he's weakned the team at third, second, and if he moves Hinske to left, at both corner outfield slots. I think he values offence over defence. In other words, "Wood trumps leather big time". Those are not my words, they are the the words of Eric Walker who may have fundamentally shaped Ricciardi's baseball viewpoint as the Oakland A's number cruncher/team philospher in the early 80's. Here's what Walker thinks about defence It takes some digging, you need to go to the rookies page, then open the team defence table, but anybody who takes this journey will look at baseball a bit differently.

Personally I'm rather agnostic on the subject, until we can measure defence better, I'm not sure I trust some of our "modern" defensive metrics, but nor do I totally discount them as Walker does (he basically feels baseball is 50% hitting, 45% pitching, 5% fielding).

At any rate, if you read about Walkers theories, I think one can better understand why Ricciardi makes some of his moves.

ayjackson - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 04:43 PM EST (#139877) #

Blair has updated his blog http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051101.wblai/BNStory/Sports/

interesting that the jays have made a "very good, very fair" offer for molina - who should decide by the weekend

Wildrose - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 04:47 PM EST (#139878) #

Wow ,Walker on the team in July, if it's coming from Blair, I wouldn't discount it.

Smaj - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 04:55 PM EST (#139879) #

Personally, I am a little surprised that Lilly was given a guaranteed $4M plus incentives. Given that the D-Train signed for $4.25 & John Lackey for less than $4M. I think a case can be made that Lilly could have been signed for less whether it be mutualy agreed or via arbitration.

Big Picture $1M extra to Lilly isn't earth shattering. Small picture view says use the $1M for part of Koskie's salary.

The unquantifiable intangible factor - I would have liked to see Lilly feel slighted by an offer or feel insulted by the arbitration process to stir up some "fire in his belly" as a motivational factor for the season. Externally from a non-insider position Lilly needs a motivational nudge more than anyone on the current roster AND the Jays need Lilly to have a large season if the post-season aspirations are to be met.

rtcaino - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 05:27 PM EST (#139880) #

""The unquantifiable intangible factor - I would have liked to see Lilly feel slighted by an offer or feel insulted by the arbitration process to stir up some "fire in his belly" as a motivational factor for the season. Externally from a non-insider position Lilly needs a motivational nudge more than anyone on the current roster AND the Jays need Lilly to have a large season if the post-season aspirations are to be met.""

Jeff Blair mentions that same factor. However, he interprets it in the opposite way:

""considering how strained relations were last year between lefthander Ted Lilly and the Blue Jays, it's a good thing for all concerned that the sides were able to avoid an arbitration hearing on Tuesday when Lilly agreed to a $4 million (U.S.) contract that includes $200,000 in bonuses based on innings: $25,000 each for 190, 195 and 200, $50,000 for 210 and $75,000 for 215.""

einsof - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 05:31 PM EST (#139881) #

The unquantifiable intangible factor - I would have liked to see Lilly feel slighted by an offer or feel insulted by the arbitration process to stir up some "fire in his belly" as a motivational factor for the season

I'd like to think that there's a better way to motivate Lilly then taking a chance on creating a negative atmosphere by playing games with the arbitration process. The fact that Lilly will have to negotiate a new contract next year & the fact that he'll want to show us that he's capable & competitive enough to pitch in a rotation with Doc & AJ, should be more then enough inspiration for him to give it his best.

MattAtBat - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 05:45 PM EST (#139882) #

Blair again:

- The Jays have made a "very good, very fair" to Molina. He will probably announce his decision soon.

- Blair thinks the Jays would have the inside track on luring Larry Walker out of retirement if they are near the playoffs this summer.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051101.wblai/BNStory/Sports/

HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 06:21 PM EST (#139883) #

The Jays have aquired LHP minor league pitcher Brian Tallet for Bubbie Buzachero

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-bluejays-indianstrade&prov=ap&type=lgns

Mylegacy - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 06:36 PM EST (#139884) #

I have no problem signing Molina BUT I absolutely LOVE Zaun.

Zaun's a real classic and classy catcher. He blocks home plate, getting hammered by runners in the process, BETTER than any other catcher I've ever seen in TO except maybe for Martinez.

However Molina hits lefties UNBELIEVABLY WELL,
In 05 vs. LH pitching:
Molina 393/430/648!!!!!! WOW
Zaun 278/366/400 Not bad, but not WOW

In 05 vs. RH pitching:
Molina 253/294/361
Zaun 241/352/364 Much better OBP than Molina vs. righties.

So, this could be a platoon that keeps the Jays with two fresh catchers right through to the playoffs.

ALSO, if a righty is pitching and late in a game the other team brings in a lefty at a key moment Molina would be a great bat to bring off the bench.

andrewkw - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 06:50 PM EST (#139885) #

Hillenbrand has asked for 6.7 million in arbitration. The Jays countered with 5. Source rotoworld

Mylegacy - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 06:51 PM EST (#139886) #

Shea Hillenbrand interview, he says Boston "is in my blood."

h ttp://www.redsoxnation.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=19628

CaramonLS - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 07:06 PM EST (#139887) #

6.7 Million?!? He better not win that one.

HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 07:06 PM EST (#139888) #

A nice quote from the Shea interview.

"RSN: You've received criticism for not showing great plate discipline in the past. Is this a part of your game that you'd like to improve?

SH: Watch this year. Things have to happen in order for you to improve, and I've revamped my swing this offseason. I've changed my mechanics, putting myself in a better position to hit, staying on my back side longer so I don't pre-commit as much. If you do that you're going to recognize pitches better. I'm coiling up on my load better, which is what guys like Ortiz and Manny do. They stay back well, and then explode when the ball reaches the zone."

I hope it's true.

Pistol - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 07:07 PM EST (#139889) #

"Personally, I am a little surprised that Lilly was given a guaranteed $4M plus incentives. Given that the D-Train signed for $4.25 & John Lackey for less than $4M."

They aren't comparable due to service time. Lilly is entering his 6th season and Willis & Lackey are entering their 4th season.

VBF - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 07:23 PM EST (#139891) #

Shea Hillenbrand interview, he says Boston "is in my blood."

Nice. And we traded away the guy who actually, you'know, wanted to play here.

GeoffAtMac - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 07:28 PM EST (#139892) #

Re: MyLegacy

You've gotta' love Shea's intensity.

I am looking forward to the Shea v.2006, he of the revamped swing. He is the kind of guy you take seriously when he commits to something.

Paul - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 08:08 PM EST (#139893) #

Ride Shea till mid season, (before he dies off anyways) package him up with Lilly and trade them for Abreu.
Then the phillies can swap shea for arroyo/clement and everyone will be happy.
Honestly. I want Abreu. Rios can be his personal benchwarmer...

Has anyone heard/read anything about Vernon Wells signing an extension? We need him for many-a-years to come.

Pistol - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 08:11 PM EST (#139894) #

The arbirtation offers are in (or at least I finally found a link with them) and updated at the top.

I expect the Jays and Walker will settle close to the middle of two figures, and perhaps a bit more than the amount that Downs received ($705,000).

I was a little surprised at the gap between the Jays and Hillenbrand. I suspect the Jays will feel confident in their offer and if they settle it'll be close to their number, say $5.5 million.

david wang - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 08:41 PM EST (#139895) #

Why are we even considering bringing Walker back? He's not a rotation pitcher and we have an overload of young righties in the pen so he makes no sense.

We have so many pitchers right now such as McGowan, League, Marcum, Downs that can all easily take his spot as a spot starter.

If you don't want to rush pitchers, I would be happier we take that his 800k - 1 million and use it on a few spring training invites.

King Ryan - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 08:43 PM EST (#139896) #

Orlando Hudson signed for one year, 2.3M.

Just throwing it out there...

Smaj - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 09:03 PM EST (#139897) #

"They aren't comparable due to service time. Lilly is entering his 6th season and Willis & Lackey are entering their 4th season."

The length of service factor should only be a marginal consideration on salary. Bottom line is performance regardless of 6 years of MLB service vs. a 4 year player of MLB Service. Any arbitrator of any worth would certainly consider a running performance in comparison to his peers in lieu of focusing on a marginal increase in service team. I am very unconvinced that Lilly obtains $4+M in an arbitration hearing given Willis' $4.25M deal in the books.

Pistol - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 09:15 PM EST (#139898) #

"The length of service factor should only be a marginal consideration on salary."

Rightly or wrongly it is. If Willis was at the same service time as Lilly he'd get no less than $10 million.

Smaj - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 09:25 PM EST (#139899) #

Pistol what are you basing this on?

If the D-train had two more years service in his final year of arbitration he would receive $6M more for the season???

Why the difference? How do you account for this?

Wildrose - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 09:44 PM EST (#139900) #

Pistol is correct, go to the CBA, performance is only revelant as a comparison to others in your arbitration year. Willis is being compared historically only to other first year arbitration eligible pitchers with similar stats.

HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 09:54 PM EST (#139901) #

I believe Gagne lost his first year arby case the year after he won the CY. I think he asked for $9 Million. If he had that season going into his final arby year no doubt he would have won his case asking for that amount. So like it or not service time is a huge indicator on arby cases.

GregH - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 10:22 PM EST (#139902) #

Just a quick comment on Larry Walker.

On Sunday my sons and I attended a Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame fundraiser for local baseball in St. Marys, which featured Larry Walker and Orlando Hudson. In answer to a question from the audience, Walker indicated he had aggravated the herniated disc in his neck doing something at home over the Holidays and that his body was definitely telling him it was time to move on.

Of course, this might just be smoke and, as a Jays fan, I would love to see him play for the club assuming he could play anything like he has played over his career. I guess, as always, we'll just have to wait and see.

XooM - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 11:04 PM EST (#139904) #

"Why are we even considering bringing Walker back? He's not a rotation pitcher and we have an overload of young righties in the pen so he makes no sense.

We have so many pitchers right now such as McGowan, League, Marcum, Downs that can all easily take his spot as a spot starter."

Actually, 3 out of the 4 pitchers you mentioned are probably better served to spend another year in the minors (League, Marcum and Mcgowan.. And wasn't Downs pegged for a roster spot anyways? Besides, Walker is an adequate spot starter/long man and is relatively cheap which also also ensures we dont rush our young pitchers.

Newton - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 11:25 PM EST (#139905) #

There is no way Hillenbrand will win his arbitration.

5 million is about as palatable as a bland saltless top cracker even if he loses.

Any medical updates on Durazo?

PeterG - Tuesday, January 17 2006 @ 11:46 PM EST (#139907) #

If Molina signs here, could we have a situation where one of the catchers(along with Hinske) takes care of the DH position and Hillenbrand is traded for an of, maybe Crisp. This would allow both catchers to play and might allow a place for Q on the roster as well if Hillenbrand is not here.

zaptom - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 01:12 AM EST (#139908) #

For what its worth,

"General manager J.P. Ricciardi hasn't gone to salary arbitration with a player since taking the job in 2001." (ESPN.com)

Keeping the streak alive eh? All things being as they are, I'm confident that Hillenbrand will settle soon.

iains - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 03:00 AM EST (#139909) #

Anyone have any idea what the thinking is with the acquistion of Tallet is? The guy is 28 and has only a couple of cups of coffee at the major league level. Bubbie Buzachero is 24 at AA. Tallet sounds like someone who will end up being a warm body at Syracuse.

Chuck - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 07:12 AM EST (#139910) #

The length of service factor should only be a marginal consideration on salary. Bottom line is performance regardless of 6 years of MLB service vs. a 4 year player of MLB Service.

What should be and what is are two different things. Six years of controlled salaries are meant to be compensation to a team for grooming a young player. After that, the marketplace rules.

Hillenbrand is traded for an of, maybe Crisp

I really think Cleveland could do a whole lot better than Hillenbrand for Crisp. There's a team in New England that desperately needs a starting center fielder.

Jim - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 08:06 AM EST (#139911) #

'Tallet sounds like someone who will end up being a warm body at Syracuse.'

Tallet is a pretty solid AAA starter. If he ends up in Toronto this season that's probably a bad sign, but he's certainly a better pitcher then Buzachero. Buzachero's got a cool name, but he's a middling minor league reliever who hasn't reached AAA and is turning 25 in June.

To some, Tallet was a prospect off his record and ERA over 3 levels in 2002, but his periferals never supported it. He missed 2004 after Tommy John surgery, which wasn't his first arm surgery. He went under the knife while he was still at LSU in the late 90's.

MatO - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 09:50 AM EST (#139917) #

The best case scenario is that Tallet turns himself into a LOOGY and is a possible replacement for Schoenweiss should he leave after this season. Plus he's got to be a foot taller than Bubbie.

Pistol - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 10:37 AM EST (#139919) #

Here are the arbitration figures, sorted by $ difference. The percent difference is the difference divided by the player's offer:

Player	       Club Proposal	�Player Proposal  Difference	% Diff
�A. Soriano	 $10,000,000 	 $12,000,000 	 $2,000,000 	17%
�Adam Dunn	 $7,100,000 	 $8,950,000 	 $1,850,000 	21%
�S. Hillenbrand	 $5,000,000 	 $6,700,000 	 $1,700,000 	25%
�Juan Pierre	 $5,000,000 	 $6,500,000 	 $1,500,000 	23%
�Jay Gibbons	 $4,000,000 	 $5,300,000 	 $1,300,000 	25%
�Bronson Arroyo	 $2,950,000 	 $4,200,000 	 $1,250,000 	30%
�Brian Roberts	 $2,400,000 	 $3,600,000 	 $1,200,000 	33%
�C Zambrano	 $6,000,000 	 $7,200,000 	 $1,200,000 	17%
�Josh Beckett	 $3,750,000 	 $4,900,000 	 $1,150,000 	23%
�Shawn Chacon	 $3,100,000 	 $4,150,000 	 $1,050,000 	25%
�G Matthews Jr.	 $2,000,000 	 $3,000,000 	 $1,000,000 	33%
�Tomo Ohka	 $4,250,000 	 $5,200,000 	 $950,000 	18%
�Travis Lee	 $2,000,000 	 $2,900,000 	 $900,000 	31%
�Felipe Lopez	 $2,150,000 	 $3,000,000 	 $850,000 	28%
�Gil Meche	 $3,350,000 	 $4,200,000 	 $850,000 	20%
�Jorge Sosa	 $1,800,000 	 $2,600,000 	 $800,000 	31%
�M Ensberg	 $3,400,000 	 $4,200,000 	 $800,000 	19%
�Rodrigo Lopez	 $3,750,000 	 $4,500,000 	 $750,000 	17%
�Luis Matos	 $1,300,000 	 $2,000,000 	 $700,000 	35%
�Mark Ellis	 $2,150,000 	 $2,850,000 	 $700,000 	25%
�Coco Crisp	 $2,350,000 	 $3,050,000 	 $700,000 	23%
�Mark Prior	 $3,300,000 	 $4,000,000 	 $700,000 	18%
�V Padilla	 $4,100,000 	 $4,800,000 	 $700,000 	15%
�Casey Fossum	 $1,700,000 	 $2,375,000 	 $675,000 	28%
�Jerry Hairston	 $1,950,000 	 $2,600,000 	 $650,000 	25%
�Kevin Mench	 $2,450,000 	 $3,050,000 	 $600,000 	20%
�Craig Monroe	 $2,450,000 	 $3,050,000 	 $600,000 	20%
�Kyle Lohse	 $3,400,000 	 $3,950,000 	 $550,000 	14%
�Jorge Julio	 $2,300,000 	 $2,800,000 	 $500,000 	18%
�Brady Clark	 $3,000,000 	 $3,500,000 	 $500,000 	14%
�Aaron Small	 $1,025,000 	 $1,450,000 	 $425,000 	29%
�M Cuddyer	 $1,100,000 	 $1,500,000 	 $400,000 	27%
�Emil Brown	 $1,400,000 	 $1,775,000 	 $375,000 	21%
�Ben Broussard	 $2,250,000 	 $2,600,000 	 $350,000 	13%
�Josh Paul	 $475,000 	 $750,000 	 $275,000 	37%
�Will Ohman	 $500,000 	 $775,000 	 $275,000 	35%
�Pete Walker	 $575,000 	 $850,000 	 $275,000 	32%
�Y Torrealba	 $815,000 	 $1,050,000 	 $235,000 	22%
�Nick Punto	 $625,000 	 $850,000 	 $225,000 	26%
�Sunny Kim	 $600,000 	 $800,000 	 $200,000 	25%
�B Donnelly	 $850,000 	 $1,050,000 	 $200,000 	19%
�Jesus Colome	 $700,000 	 $850,000 	 $150,000 	18%
�Travis Harper	 $800,000 	 $900,000 	 $100,000 	11%

VGeras - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 11:05 AM EST (#139920) #

Awesome stuff Pistol....May I ask where you got those figures from?

VGeras - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 11:20 AM EST (#139923) #

Found it..nevermind

Bones - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 12:13 PM EST (#139927) #

I like the Tallet addition. I view him as sort of another Scott Downs : that is, a guy who can be valuable as a swingman type in the majors, making very little money. You can never have too many guys like that. If at any point they deem Walker or Downs to be too expensive, or ineffective, Tallet could easily step into the breach.

That being said, I would still rather have Gaudin than Tallet.

Jonny German - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 12:35 PM EST (#139931) #

The Jays didn't really have an apples-to-apples choice of Gaudin or Tallet. Keeping Gaudin would have required having him on the big league team all year (he's out of options), he would definitely have been claimed if placed on waivers. Tallet on the other hand should make it through waivers no problem and thus can pitch at Syracuse.

I do agree that the Jays didn't do a great job of figuring out if Gaudin's got what it takes to make it in the bigs, and backed themselves into a corner where they got very little in return for trading him.

Jordan - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 01:12 PM EST (#139932) #

In the unlikely event the Jays do go to arbitration with Hillenbrand, I imagine the final figure would probably be closer to Toronto's offer. With that in mind, I can see a one-year, $5.7M deal reached before the hearing. I don't really care what Pete Walker gets.

It was just two years ago that Lilly posted a 4.06 ERA with these peripherals: 197 IP, 171 H, 89 BB, 168 K. If the Jays get even a facsimile of that from him this year, they'll have gotten a great bargain at $4M. The back 3/5 of the Jays' rotation will cost less than $7M total in 2006, and collectively, they're a very good bet to at least throw 550-600 innings with mid-4.00 ERAs, maybe better. That's some pretty good value for money.

The Larry Walker insight is very interesting. Ideally, of course, the Jays wouldn't need his bat down the stretch in any event, but more likely he would be a pretty considerable upgrade. Don't expect too much from him in the power department if he does come back, though -- even the 20-HR seasons are long gone.

Bengie Molina owns lefties (.393/.430/.648 in 122 AB last season, .316/.352/.537 in 339 AB the last three years), and that alone is reason enough to add him to a lineup that's going to need help against southpaws. I hope they can get him.

Buzachero was not going to contribute to the organization beyond Double-A. Tallet should give Syracuse some decent innings this season. Good deal for Toronto.

Pistol - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 01:19 PM EST (#139933) #

"In the unlikely event the Jays do go to arbitration with Hillenbrand, I imagine the final figure would probably be closer to Toronto's offer"

It's either one or the other - there's no in between in baseball arbitration.

Jordan - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 01:23 PM EST (#139934) #

Sorry, I meant to refer to the final figure the teams could eventually work out in negotiation. Too much rust on this irregular writer....

Flex - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 01:32 PM EST (#139935) #

Inside the Dome has a piece on the Tallet trade:

http://bluejays.scout.com/2/490044.html

Seems the Jays have had designs on him for some time.

einsof - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 01:37 PM EST (#139936) #

I wonder if Shea's arbitration process might negatively influence the Jay's pursuit of Molina. In other words, if Shea gets his $6.7 million, will we have enough left over to sign Molina .

Mike Green - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 02:02 PM EST (#139938) #

I agree with Jordan that Hillenbrand's case will probably settle at about $5.7 million. One cannot help but remember the Stewart/Cruz Jr. situations of several years ago; with the increase in budget comes a change in approach. Still visions of a Hinske/LeCroy DH platoon flit through my head. Sigh.

Mylegacy - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 02:09 PM EST (#139939) #

Jordan, actually I think our problem is going to be vs righties. While I support getting Molina because he is awesome against lefties, and that's just too good to pass up, I fear us against righties.

Wells in 05 against righties was: 245/292/397 that is UGLY, worse than Rios ugly (262/306/397)! Fortunately Glaus is pretty much the same against righties and lefties (vs LHP 244/389/519 vs RHP 263/353/523)

However, it now appears that LA is going to offer more so Molina probably becomes a moot point. Is a moot point like a prickly pear?

Dr. Zarco - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 02:54 PM EST (#139942) #

More evidence that the Lilly 4M deal was a good one:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2295415

Kip Wells got a 4.15M. He, like Lilly, is in his final year of arbitration. Wells had a 5.09 ERA and led the majors with 18 losses. Although he did have the worst run support in the league (worse than Clemens) at 3.07/game. Yikes!

HoJu - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 03:17 PM EST (#139943) #

Here is John Donovan's take on the Jays moves this winter.

These moves could -- no, they should -- put the Jays into wild-card territory, at least. GRADE: Finally making their move -- A.

Jacko - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 03:34 PM EST (#139944) #

Bah, I thought we settled the options argument once and for all.

Gaudin has an option left.

He was added to 40 man roster in 2003, but not sent down.

He was optioned in both 2004 and 2005.

If he's sent down again in 2006, Oakland will burn his final option year.

rtcaino - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 03:50 PM EST (#139945) #

Why would we trade him? Maybe JP just felt that we would have enough depth at triple �A� this year. Who knows? Depth doesn't seem like something you can have too much of though. That would be a good question to pose to the big man on a WWJP.

Pistol - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 04:21 PM EST (#139946) #

The Jays needed to make a 40 man roster after Ryan was signed and Gaudin was the one they chose. That was the reason behind trading him, regardless of whether he had an option.

Now after the Glaus trade the Jays had an extra 40 man spot and used it on Tallet.

If the timing was different they'd probably still have Gaudin but in that case they might not have Ryan.

Glevin - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 05:50 PM EST (#139959) #

"Hillenbrand is traded for an of, maybe Crisp

I really think Cleveland could do a whole lot better than Hillenbrand for Crisp. There's a team in New England that desperately needs a starting center fielder."

The rumour was Marte for Crisp. Hillenbrand for Crisp would be an idiotic trade for Cleveland. Crisp is a lot younger, a better hitter, a better fielder, faster, and makes a lot less money than Hillenbrand. Hillenbrand won't fetch anything much if he were traded right now. A DH who is decent offensively but who makes at least 5 million dollars is not a great deal especially when Thomas, Lecroy, Piazza, and Durazo are still out there.

Glevin - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 05:54 PM EST (#139960) #

Great figures Pistol. IMO, the arbitration system needs a massive overhaul. Ensberg was close to MVP material last year and will make less than Ohka and similar money to Gill Meche. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

Mylegacy - Wednesday, January 18 2006 @ 10:03 PM EST (#139974) #

Scout.com has a very interesting article on the Jays defense heading into 06.

The bottom line is that all is well on the defense.

Glaus, a former gold glover is at least OK at third. Hinske is fast in LF. Hill's range factor at 2nd last year was second only to the O'Dog in the league. Overbay is a real improvement at first. Cat has played RF before.

Not great, but at least adequate defense.

Now, if only we can hit and pitch!!

DepecheJay - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 12:10 AM EST (#139981) #

Wait, so the Jays are serious about moving Hinske to left? Serious? You mean, they aren't playing a sick joke on us all? Good God help us all...

Can't they just do what's best for the team and bench the guy? He'd still get plenty of at bats for the Hinske fans that remain and the teams outfield defense wouldn't be impaired and Rios would still get a chance to prove himself.

I'm actually scared that J.P. might actually be serious about this.

sweat - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 01:25 AM EST (#139983) #

It's sad to think that you, and many other Jays fans, think that JP and the Jays shouldn't even try Hinske out in the OF. It's not like they are claiming to have found the LF of the future in Hinske. If Hinske is as bad as you think he will be, he wont be out there.

Jacko - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 02:01 AM EST (#139984) #

Everyone sees how big Hinske is and immediately thinks "Delgado". However, he's a lot faster than Carlos ever was, and wasn't all that much of a clutz over at 3B either. His reactions and ability to catch the ball were fine.

His only issue was making strong, accurate throws from 3B to 1B. Out in LF, this is not going to be a problem. All he has to do is heave it back in the general direction of the cutoff man.

As long as they can teach him how to get good reads and take good lines to flyballs in the OF, he'll be fine.

Jacko - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 02:12 AM EST (#139985) #

Dude, that's the way it has always worked. Most players don't get their first big payday until their 2nd and 3rd years of arbitration. And they don't truly cash in until they are free agent eligible.

Quite simply, them's the rules. And they were _negotiated_ by the players and owners, so nobody has anything to complain about. The system has served everyone fairly well over the past 30 years, so I'm not sure who will be the driving force behind this massive overhaul you're suggesting.

melondough - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 03:36 AM EST (#139986) #

It's 3:30am and a big bang downstairs just woke me and my wife up (of course the kids sleep through anything)! Anyhow, all seems o.k. but its buggin me that I can't determine the source.

Regardless, now that I am up here's the latest Molina link (looks like a one yr offer from either the Jays or LAD).

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/la-sp-dodgers19jan19,1,3576035.story?coll=la-headlines-sports-majorbaseb&ctrack=1&cset=true

ok, back to sleep.

Mike Green - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 09:38 AM EST (#139994) #

The defensive loss in moving Hinske to leftfield is two-fold. Hinske might have respectable speed, but he does not have a quick first step, and would be learning a new positon. There would likely be a significant step backward from Cat/Johnson to Hinske. In right field, the difference between Rios and Cat would be even larger. Rios covers more ground and has a far superior arm. Overall, the outfield defense would go from among the top 2 or 3 in the league to average at best.

CeeBee - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 10:09 AM EST (#139998) #

But untill we actually see Hinske play a few games in left, and I don't mean the very first few of spring training, we really won't know how he will do out there. Major leaguers are the very best of a small % of professional players and more than likely most if not all of them have shagged more than a few flyballs in the past. IMO Eric's toughest challenge will be getting a quick read and learning the parks. If he can't learn quick enough and become at least an adequate left fielder I would not expect to see him in left field very much or very long.

einsof - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 10:16 AM EST (#139999) #

Todays article by Richard Griffin--
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1137624637211&call_pageid=969907739730&col=970081600908

Interesting insights into current Jay's payroll & thoughts on signing Molina.

Chuck - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 11:04 AM EST (#140001) #

Major league baseball's once-despised arbitration process has become so precise, with club geeks and player agents running so many of the same statistics through their laptops... [non sequitur snipped]

Club geeks? Who is Griffin, the bully from Back to the Future? Get your nose out of your laptop McFly. I'm gonna give you an old fashioned ejumication... wedgie style.

Jonny German - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 11:07 AM EST (#140003) #

But untill we actually see Hinske play a few games in left, ...we really won't know how he will do out there.

Absolutely, I think it's possible that he'll be as good as Cat in left. Cat versus Rios in right field on the other hand is a clear and significant downgrade. I'd start Rios in right field 4 times a week, and bring him in as a defensive sub late in the game when he's not starting - much as was done last year with Cat and Johnson.

Pistol - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 11:16 AM EST (#140005) #

"Club geeks? Who is Griffin, the bully from Back to the Future?"

Which is one of the many reasons not to read Griffin.

But you know, if you took 100 random people and introduced them to Griffin and then introduced them to the 'club geeks' I bet a high majority of the people would find the 'club geeks' to be much more interesting and have a wider assortment of interests than Griffin.

And his column today sure sounds a lot like this thread:

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20060116170616434

Named For Hank - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 11:16 AM EST (#140006) #

I agree, too, we need to see Eric out there before condemning his abilities. Sure, he doesn't have a "left fielder build", but he doesn't have a base-stealer build either, and he does okay at that. Maybe it's because he's smart instead of because he's fast, but that could serve him in the outfield as well.

I'm still not convinced that we'll ever see Eric Hinske play left field. The little voice in my head tells me that there's something else afoot.

Mylegacy - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 11:41 AM EST (#140007) #

Fellow Bauxites.

Hinske in left is not the problem. For two reasons. One, he is fast and two; if he can't do it THEY (you know, the guys in the black helicopters) won't do it.

The problem is Cat in RF for the 121 games and 304 at bats Rios had against righties. The question THEY will have to answer is will worse defense for 121 games be offset by better offense for 304 at bats. And the answer is? Spring training will tell.

Mylegacy - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 12:07 PM EST (#140008) #

Offensively, Cat and Hinske against righties are about a wash. The real reason for this LF RF platooning is to get Rios' bat on the bench against Righties. Cat is 302/367/448 against RHP while Rios is 262/306/397.

We know our pitching will be AT LEAST completive, what we KNOW we need is EVERY ounce of offense we can muster. The Yank's offense is amazing. Even just Manny and Ortiz will be wonderful for the Sox. We ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY, FOR SURE (am I repeating myself?) have to get every bit of offense we can muster. Our pitching deserves all the opportunity to win we can give them!

The additions of Glaus and Overbay are HUGE. If Glaus makes Wells better, and Cat replaces 300 lousy at bats with good ones, if Hill can be up from Hudson's stats a wee bit, If Hilly is actually a bit better AND batting deeper in the order then we are more dangerous 1 through 8 than we've been for years. We'll need it to contend.

Spring will be the time we experiment to see what may or may not work.

Mylegacy - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 12:16 PM EST (#140009) #

Just scanning SOSH and other Sox sites apparently there is a rumour that Griffey is going to the Sox for Arrayo and Ellsbury.

Interesting to see Ken in CF in Fenway. Shudder! BUT, Manny, Ortiz, Griffey, 2 4 5 SHUDDER!!!

VBF - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 12:44 PM EST (#140010) #

Arroyo and Ellsbury?

Surely we can beat that.

Pistol - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 12:57 PM EST (#140011) #

But why would you want to?

Mylegacy - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 01:10 PM EST (#140012) #

Can you see Ken's hamstrings exploding in Fenway? Not a pretty pitcher (er. picture). Too bad they have Ortiz because Ken at DH might be pretty.

Mike Green - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 01:12 PM EST (#140013) #

Ken Griffey Jr. seems to be a below-replacement level defensive centerfielder at this point. For him to be shipped to an American League team to be a left-handed DH makes sense, but this plan doesn't.

As a Jays fan, I'd be delighted if the Sox acquired him to be their centerfielder for Arroyo and Ellsbury. Somehow I doubt that it will happen.

VBF - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 01:14 PM EST (#140014) #

Good question. He will be 37 this year and has a history of injury which are the obvious red flags. On the other hand, he posted a .945 OPS last year and looked like he returned to the old Griffey everyone knows. For a team planning on making a serious run at the playoffs/World Series in the next two years and beyond, he's a risk, but the payoff could be great. I doubt Cincinnati plans on taking a significant amount of salary in return which is the obvious barrier considering we have a limited amount of money to play with.

Christopher - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 01:22 PM EST (#140015) #

Who is Griffin, the bully from Back to the Future?

Yeah, Griffin should make like a tree, and get out of here.

King Ryan - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 02:00 PM EST (#140016) #

I really do not understand the interest in Bengie Molina. He's not as good as Zaun offensively and I doubt that, aside from throwing out baserunners, any difference in defence is large.

I would much prefer to have Zaun for cheap than to max out the payroll with Molina. Let Zaun catch the majority of games with Phillips/Quiroz giving him adequate rest. Save the rest of the budget for when we need it. (Say Halladay doesn't return strongly from the leg injury.)

King Ryan - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 02:02 PM EST (#140017) #

I should phrase that first part better:

I believe that, next year, Gregg Zaun will be more valuable offensively than Bengie Molina.

nicton - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 02:14 PM EST (#140018) #

If Halladay doesn't come back strong, there will be no need to spend any more money in 2006. In that case, JP would be better off pocketing the money for '07....

sweat - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 03:06 PM EST (#140020) #

and then in 2007 you can post how the jays should be pocketing their extra cash for 2008. There comes a time when a team(or even a person) must go for it. There really is no reason to wait at this point.

VBF - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 03:26 PM EST (#140021) #

We're a much worse team without Halladay, but even if he isn't up to par, we now have a high quality pitcher who can step in and fill most of the void.

And if we have to, we're also in a position to trade for another high quality pitcher should the situation present itself.

Jonny German - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 04:13 PM EST (#140026) #

There comes a time when a team(or even a person) must go for it. There really is no reason to wait at this point.

I'll buy that, more or less. But I won't buy that Molina would be a significant upgrade to this team. His line against righties in 2005 was ridiculously good, and to me screams "fluke".

Bengie Molina vs. Lefties:

Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
2001	26	101	.218	.298	.347
2002	27	125	.248	.278	.328
2003	28	114	.289	.322	.544
2004	29	103	.252	.291	.398
2005	30	122	.393	.430	.648

His 2003 was also very good. Is his 2006 OBP versus lefties more likely to be over .400 or under .300? His SLG over .500 or under .400? I'll take the under on both, and even if we split the difference at a tidy .350 / .450... it's 120 at-bats! And don't kid yourselves, he ain't giving you anything in his at-bats versus righties. To wit:

Bengie Molina vs. Righties:

Year	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
2001	26	224	.281	.314	.353
2002	27	303	.244	.272	.320
2003	28	295	.278	.296	.403
2004	29	234	.286	.323	.406
2005	30	288	.253	.295	.361

sweat - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 04:38 PM EST (#140029) #

While I'm not against acquiring Molina, I'm not really for it. I'm sure getting a guy like that would help make the team better, but I don't think it makes the team a whole lot better. Now if the Jays did sign him for the year, I would be pretty interested in trading him away before the deadline to a contender, IF quiroz is ready or phillips is looking good.

Amarsh - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 05:39 PM EST (#140032) #

Assuming Zaun is healthy and can atleast put up comparable stats to his 2005 numbers, I don't see much good in spending 4 million on Molina. Comparing Molina's 2005 campaign to the rest of his career, his offensive production from last year looks unlikely to be repeated.

Everything I've read about Zaun talks about his ability to call a good game, his leadership on the team, his good rapport with the pitchers, etc...
Unless we were bringing in a SIGNIFICANT offensive upgrade at catcher (which IMO Molina won't be), I wouldn't want to mess with Zaun's role on the team.

That being said though, catching does seem to be the Jay's weak link in terms of backup options. Any injury to Zaun and we could be in for a nightmare of GQ/Phillips playing everyday. It's too bad the Jays don't have another option at catcher (ie - a Piazza/Wilson-type player DHing who could fill in, in the case of a major injury to Zaun).

greenfrog - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 05:55 PM EST (#140033) #

Molina would be a pretty low-risk signing, if the market doesn't dictate more than a one-year deal. In 13 big-league seasons, Zaun has caught more than 100 games only three times (and over 80 games only four times). I guess this works both ways--you could argue that he's had less wear and tear than most 34-year-old catchers. Still, I haven't read anything over the last two seasons to suggest that Q is ready to catch in the big leagues, and there seem to be a lot of question marks surrounding Phillips.

I think what the Jays really need is someone like Zaun to back up Zaun...

Amarsh - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 06:03 PM EST (#140034) #

Greenfrog, I agree about a Zaun (and a Zaun-salary) to back-up Zaun. If only JP could find another one of those...

HippyGilmore - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 06:06 PM EST (#140035) #

On the Blue Jays official website, it says that Halladay is going to pitch for the U.S. in the WBC. I thought this had already been ruled out? I'd be very scared if he's changed his mind..

Amarsh - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 06:10 PM EST (#140036) #

I should add though, I don't think the reason Zaun's played so few games has to do with injury problems so much as the fact that up until 2 years ago, he just wasn't starter material (atleast in terms of offense, as his AVG/OBP/SLG absolutely spiked upwards in 2004, for whatever reason).

VGeras - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 06:15 PM EST (#140037) #

Pitcher Roy Halladay and outfielder Vernon Wells were selected on the provisional roster by the United States. However, it is unlikely that Halladay will participate in the tournament because of the leg injury he suffered last year.

Provisional rosters allow Federations to list up to 60 players from which final 30-man rosters will be selected. Each Federation must submit its final roster, including a minimum of 13 pitchers and three catchers, prior to the start of the World Baseball Classic.

http://bluejays.scout.com/2/490679.html

HippyGilmore - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 06:25 PM EST (#140038) #

I know that, but if you go to Blue Jays.com right now and look at the front page it says very specifically that Halladay will represent the U.S., and under the photo it says he will play. I think it must be a mistake, I really hope so at least.

AWeb - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 08:35 PM EST (#140041) #

Off topic, but this seems to be the roundup thread of sorts.

Epstein is back with the Red Sox.

http://tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=151491

Apparently, in a lesser role, Epstein won't have to put his," whole his heart and soul into it". Sounds like a great job if you can get it.

Glevin - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 09:01 PM EST (#140042) #

"I believe that, next year, Gregg Zaun will be more valuable offensively than Bengie Molina."

The worry for Zaun is that he was bad after April and horrible in the second half.(http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=5427&type=batting&year=2005) Maybe it's from getting too many ABs, but it's even more likely that at 34, he was just declining. Molina will probably be better overall than Zaun this year and if they can get him for cheap and short-term, they should get him. If they don't, it's not a big deal IMO.

greenfrog - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 09:17 PM EST (#140043) #

I think Zaun will be better offensively, largely because he walks and Molina doesn't. Molina sounds like a good receiver whose throwing has declined quite a bit. It looks to me like he had a career year offensively last year (Zaun might have as well).

I don't think the issue is whether Molina is a huge upgrade over Zaun. It's more a question of adding depth (and, arguably, playoff experience) at a critical position. The problem is that I think you need to establish who your number one catcher is. Right now, I'm not sure which of the two fits this description. Either way, I think pitcher-catcher rapport is more important than platooning to create a marginal offensive advantage (eg by having Molina face lefties).

Mylegacy - Thursday, January 19 2006 @ 11:07 PM EST (#140046) #

Dayn Perry at Fox Sports.com, the guy that said we were better off before the Glaus trade...says Beckett is overrated and AJ is a potential Cy Young winner!!!

As Dayn and I walk across the foggy runway La Marseillaise plays in the background and I say, "Dayn, this could be the start of a beautiful friendship." (Apologies to Casablanca, and Bogie for those of you too young to know what I'm talking about).

rtcaino - Friday, January 20 2006 @ 12:23 AM EST (#140049) #

""As Dayn and I walk across the foggy runway La Marseillaise plays in the background and I say, "Dayn, this could be the start of a beautiful friendship." (Apologies to Casablanca, and Bogie for those of you too young to know what I'm talking about).""

I've watched enough cartoons satirize that scene to know what you are talking about thank you very much!

For the record: The alternate ending is way better.

einsof - Friday, January 20 2006 @ 10:55 AM EST (#140062) #

Interesting article in today's Toronto Sun about John Gibbons & his expectations etc.

http://torontosun.com/Sports/Baseball/2006/01/20/1403043-sun.html

eeleye - Saturday, January 21 2006 @ 01:46 PM EST (#140100) #

Off topic. Looks like Molina will either sign with Blue Jays or Dodgers. No word on Dodgers offer, but the Jays have offered 1 year and 4 million dollars.

http://www.prosportsdaily.com/mlb/blue-jays/rumors.html

However, I read somewhere that he doesn't seem to thrilled to go to Toronto, and I think Dodgers need a catcher more than us. I like the idea of Zaun / Phillips platoon.

Gerry - Saturday, January 21 2006 @ 04:54 PM EST (#140104) #

I assume if Molina signs with the Dodgers he might be able to stay in the same place he has been living when he was with the Angels. I also seem to remember that he might have been living with his brother and if he signs with the Dodgers he can continue to do that, if that is important for him.

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