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The Jays stormed back to tie the game in the bottom of the 9th against the resurgent Troy Pervical, only to see an Alex Rios leadoff triple in the bottom of the 10th go uncashed. A sac fly from Bossman Junior and a Dioner Navarro grand slam later and that was all she wrote. Those with a need to see the gruesome details can do so, here.


It takes a certain skill to not be able to score a runner on third base with none out. So many different events can occur that allow the run to score, whearas only a few outcomes likely guarantee it won't. On the positive side of the ledger, any base hit, fly out (Rios runs well), weakly hit ground ball past the pitcher, passed ball, wild pitch, or balk probably scores the runner, and a steal of home or suicide squeeze can work as well. The only outcomes that would (probably) prevent the runner from scoring are strikeouts (assuming the ball is caught), infield flies, walks, line drive outs to an infielder or sharply hit ground balls, depending on where there hit. This is basically just a long way of saying that the Jays probably could have done better than their subsequent three strikeouts and two walks. More specifically, the Jays expectation of winning was 91%, according to TangoTiger's win expectancy chart.

Anyway, the loss was obviously tough, but nevertheless we look ahead.

The Jays kick off a 10 game road trip with a four game set at the Jake tonight, taking on the suddenly hot Cleveland Indians. It's a battle of the aces as Doc takes on C.C. Sabathia at 7.05 pm.

If you missed it, Jorge Velandia and Joe Inglett were called up as both David Eckstein and Marco Scutaro were placed on th 8, e 15 Day DL.
Inglett was batting .407/.484/.574 in 54 at bats with a 7/7 k/bb ratio. Velandia is 33 and hittin .287/.385/.426 with 14 walks and 18 k's in 94 ab's.

Jeff Blair suggests that the team is probably going to sign Brad Wilkerson who had been cut by the Mariners earlier this year. Wilkerson is a 30 year old lefthander who actually has hit better against lefties. He was hitting .232/.348/.304 with the Mariners, so at the least he should fit in with the rest of the Jays - no power or average. Wilkerson has been up and down the last couple years, alternating between average and sub-average, which is not so good for a corner outfielder. He hasn't had a good year since 2004 with the Expos, so maybe the Canada connection will work out for him...

2008 Win Share data is out at The Hardball Times, and worth a perusal if you have time. Dave Studeman has a breakdown of some of the leaders to date. The best Jays so far have been Halladay, McGowan and Marcum, who rank 8th, 9th and 12th amongst AL starting pitchers in win shares. Hill is third amongst AL second baggers to lead the hitters, though much of this is because of his defensive prowess.

John Sickels has a prospect retro on former Jay Frank Thomas. The link is worth it for the picture alone. Sickels also has some great pre-draft stuff.

Thats it for now. After all, tomorrow is another day.

TDIB 9 May 2008 | 19 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Paul D - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#184770) #

I got this from BTF:  article from Syracuse.com regarding African American players in MLB, with extensive quotes from Tracy Thorpe.

binnister - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#184781) #
Stewart looked absolutely clueless in his 9th inning at bat.  With the resurgence of Overbay, can a promotion to the #2 spot be far away?
Noah - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#184786) #
we can only hope that Stewarts days in the 2 hole are coming to an end.
Frank Markotich - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#184787) #

I wonder if my old apartment still has the dent in the wall that I put there after the infamous Tippy Martinez game in 1983.

Last night's at bat by Shannon Stewart after Rios' leadoff triple (taking fastballs down the middle for strikes no. 1 and 3) was the closest I've come since then to doing something like that again.

PhilBlunt - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#184788) #

Like really -- I can't believe they couldn't score Rios.  

zeppelinkm - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#184790) #

Frank: I feel your pain. I literally had a hard time sleeping last night I was so perturbed by the outcome of that game last night - I hope the Jays did too.

Seriously, the Jays have had some frustrating losses this year, but this takes the cake.

Stewart should absolutely be ashamed of himself.  Really ashamed. He got two excellent pitches to hit - what was he waiting for? I just don't get it. Working the plate and trying to get on base is fine if you're in one of the first 9 innings of the ball game. But all the Jays needed was one.

Stairs had a bad game, but was well pitched to by Wheeler opposed to Stewart who had a couple left up and over the plate for him.

And please, Brad Wilkerson is who JP is bringing in? Really? He's going to be the guy to turn this offence around? I know I'm just especially frustrated right now and venting a bit, but I don't think Wilkerson is going to be anything special. Although, at the very least, he might be an improvement until the Jays give Lind another shot or do something crazy like sign Bonds or trade for a legitimate hitter.

 

Wildrose - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#184795) #
Well, I thought  only Bob Elliott and yours truly really  cared about the Canadian Olympic Team, but Blair adds his two cents over  Stubbygate.

Win some , lose some Chris Reitsma wants to play for Canada this August.
actionjackson - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#184801) #
Firstly, let me say that was a soul-crushing, kick in the groin kind of loss. Frank you're right, it definitely rivals the Tippy Martinez game. Let's just hope they don't turn it into a week-long find a new way to lose each night thingy as our boys did in '83 in Baltimore and Detroit. I would really like to be able to start talking about the glory days because we're returning to them rather than continuing to re-visit the not quite ready for prime-time Jays of '83.

Good things from last night: actually getting up off the deck in the ninth inning against the hottest closer in the game. Anders, you mention that their Win Expectancy in the tenth was 91%, but according to "The Book" it was actually 92.9%! (Aaaargh!). Don't know what the reason is for the difference in percentages, perhaps Tango Tiger has refined his method since "The Book" was written in 2006. I do know that according to that source their chances of winning beginning the ninth inning were 4.7%. So, they did give us a near impossible thrill ride, only to rip our hearts out and stomp on them.

As for lineup changes, please don't put Lyle in the 2-hole, as it seems to turn him into an extreme pull hitter, which completely goes against his normal approach. He looked absolutely lost up there last year and I for one don't want to see a return to that this year. I would like to see him lead off against righties (I know it'll never happen because a leadoff hitter has to be fast blah blah blah...). Yes his power is coming back right now, but his power is 40+ double, 15-20 homer power at best. It's his ability to not make outs that I like in that spot. I like Eckstein and his grittitude and gritermination in the #2 spot. Rios, despite his run as "Little Boy Lost" at the plate lately (triple in the tenth aside) needs to get back to the 3-spot ASAP. Rolen, Stairs and Wells would be my 4, 5 and 6 hitters. Hill, Stewart and Zaun would hit 7, 8 and 9 for me. For variation you could swap out Zaun and Overbay (moving Overbay to 7, and Hill and Stewart to 8 and 9). Unorthodox yes, but I'm tired of Stewart at #2 and Rios at #1. You need people getting on at the top in front of people who can hit the ball hard. I guess optimal lineup construction is a bit of a moot point with this bunch of sawdust squeezers, but I think putting the on-base guys in front of the power guys makes sense. Zaun and Overbay seem to have excellent approaches at the plate right now (Zaun always has) and deserve to move up. Heck, you might as well bat Overbay #1 and Zaun #2, while Eck is out. If the orthodox (i.e. speed at the top) ain't working, you have to try the unorthodox, ...or maybe you could let another season get away.

SLAM! that's the sound of the window of opportunity coming down on your fingers boys. Get it in gear pronto.

danjulien - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#184806) #
Mench and Wilkerson are acquired.  Mench was for cash consideraitons.
Inglett is sent down.
Chacin and Santos are designated for assignment.
binnister - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#184807) #

Mench too?

Wonder how long it will be until Stewart is considered a 'sunk cost' as well?

King Ryan - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#184808) #
Win expectancy chart of last night's game, courtesy of FanGraphs:



What a rollercoaster that was. 

Jays take on a CC Sabathia this evening.  He seems to have found his groove since that dreadful outing against Detroit. 
Dez - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#184809) #
Well, as long as Mench is used exclusively against lefties, I don't mind that signing.  Wilkerson, not so sure about.  I don't know if he's a good bet to be better than Shannon Stewart.
JustinD - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#184810) #
Looking at the numbers real quick, Mench has been very good against left handers in his career. Last three years:

.305/.361/.558 for an OPS of .919. Better than Wilkerson's 264/351/429 and .780 OPS over that same time.

I'm excited to see Mench's name in the lineup against lefties. A .919 OPS would be the second best on the team right now. Rolen is, by all accounts, the Man.

ChicagoJaysFan - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#184814) #
Well, as long as Mench is used exclusively against lefties, I don't mind that signing.  Wilkerson, not so sure about.  I don't know if he's a good bet to be better than Shannon Stewart.

I would also like to see us play Mench against Daisuke, Wang, and Santana.  Lightning can strike twice, can't it?
ayjackson - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#184819) #

Mench has continued his lefty-masing ways at AAA Oklahoma this spring.  His OPS vs LHP is 1.206.  He's also hitting .400 overall in his past 10 games.

I've always liked Wilkerson, though there's more promise than substance with Brad.  I wasn't terribly exctied to hear he would be signed, but the double signing is more encouraging.  I like what this does for our bench.  I can see a lineup of Wilkerson in LF and Mench at DH versus lefties.

92-93 - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#184823) #
Before you read this, let me stress that I am NOT blaming last night's game on Gibbons, it clearly was a result of their anemic offense. That being said, why on earth would he pull Jason Frasor for Jesse Carlson? They were down 3-0 and the guy hadnít pitched in 2 weeks and he strikes out the first 3 of 4 yet John feels the need to go to one of his reliable relievers for 2 outs to get in the 9th?! Who knows, maybe if he is available in extra innings the Rays donít get to see Camp until the 14th, maybe not even until the 15th. I recognize that Torontoís pitching staff has great numbers but I feel that it is IN SPITE of Gibbonsí handling, and not a result of it. This team could be even better if he had a clue on how to handle a bullpen and didnít make a mistake every single night.
ChicagoJaysFan - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#184826) #
Before you read this, let me stress that I am NOT blaming last night's game on Gibbons, it clearly was a result of their anemic offense. That being said, why on earth would he pull Jason Frasor for Jesse Carlson? They were down 3-0 and the guy hadnít pitched in 2 weeks and he strikes out the first 3 of 4 yet John feels the need to go to one of his reliable relievers for 2 outs to get in the 9th?! Who knows, maybe if he is available in extra innings the Rays donít get to see Camp until the 14th, maybe not even until the 15th. I recognize that Torontoís pitching staff has great numbers but I feel that it is IN SPITE of Gibbonsí handling, and not a result of it. This team could be even better if he had a clue on how to handle a bullpen and didnít make a mistake every single night.

Wasn't Gibbons just taking heat around here yesterday for not finding a way to get his relievers some work, and now he's getting heat for not saving his bullpen in a 3-0 game?

Frasor had thrown 20 pitches and 4 batters when he was pulled yesterday.  He could have easily gone longer (probably one or two more batters as 30 pitches is getting long for modern-day relievers), but that was enough to get him some work and with Pena coming up, why not put in the lefty? 

I would have liked to see Downs come back for a second inning, but other than that, think Gibbons did a good job with the pen.
brent - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#184844) #
Nice work, JP. With this offense, I am glad to see players come in from a different organization to see if things can get going. I really like what JP has done except Johnson because I would prefer his defence. I can't make up my mind about the Thomas fiasco because I haven't heard from Denbo whether he thought he was done or what his evaluation was.
ayjackson - Friday, May 09 2008 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#184848) #

Keith Law just released his first top 60 draft eligible player ranking.

Given the first nine from his list are gone (seems to be consensus), this is my binkie list of players I'd like at #17:

  1. Ethan Martin, HS, RHP/3B
  2. Brett Wallace, ASU, 1B
  3. Tim Melville, HS, RHP
  4. Kyle Skipworth, HS, C
  5. Aaron Hicks, HS, OF/RHP
  6. Casey Kelly, HS, SS/RHP
  7. Conor Gillaspie, Wichita St., 3B

Chances are they'll all be gone and we'll be taking the college lefty again.

TDIB 9 May 2008 | 19 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.