Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Blue Jays 2011 Top Prospects: 30-21

Blue Jays 2011 Top Prospects: 30-21

Welcome to the Batters Box top 30 Blue Jay prospects for 2011. Eight of your trusted minor league correspondents pooled their votes to come up with the list. The same trusty eight shared the task of writing the prospect descriptions you see below.

In total, forty-two prospects received at least one vote. Twenty of the top thirty were named on all eight ballots. There can be plenty of debate as to who should have made it, particularly here, in the bottom 10. We hope the wisdom of our crowd has delivered a great top thirty.

As usual we have split the top 30 into three installments, running Monday through Wednesday. On Thursday we will look at some prospects that did not make the list but are favourites of one of our writers.

We hope you enjoy the list and the discussion.

30. Joe Musgrove | RHP

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2011	18	RK	9	7	24.2	7.1	0.4	1.9	6.7	4.01

The Jays used their third pick of the 2011 draft (46th overall) to select the 6'5" righty out of high school in California. Musgrove signed quickly and was able to start seven games in the GCL and appear once in relief. Baseball America had Musgrove ranked 90th heading into the draft but admitted it's easy to see what the Jays liked in him. Musgrove sits 91-94 MPH and has been clocked at 98. He also features a change that needs work and an above average curve. He is said to have an easy delivery and uses his size to his advantage. Musgrove currently sits 30th in our rankings but it wouldn't be surprising to see him vault a few spots. He will likely start the year in extended spring training before joining one of the short season clubs. He turns 19 in December.

29. Eric Arce | LF/DH

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2011	19	RK	172	7	3	14	40	52	1	1	.267	.427	.587

Arce took a strange route to pro ball. An FSU commit, Arce lost his scholarship and a year of experience due to some off the field problems. This didn't scare off the Jays who selected him in the 25th round and he rewarded them with a GCL record 14 homers and an OPS north of 1.000. Arce didn't crack Baseball America's Top 20 GCL prospect list as scouts were mixed on his tools other than power. Arce profiles as an all-bat player and at 5'9", 205 pounds his mobility is in question. His power potential will keep him moving up the organizational ladder however. He is expected to start the 2012 season in extended spring training.

28. Dickie Joe Thon | SS

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2011	19	RK	121	3	0	3	23	44	6	2	.223	.369	.322

It was a trying rookie season for the son of Dickie, the 15 year major league veteran shortstop. Rated the 16th best prospect in the Jays farm system by Baseball America, the 19 year-old Thon was diagnosed with a blood disorder after undergoing a physical exam during Spring Training. The 6-foot-2, 175 pound shortstop did begin the season with the Gulf Coast League Blue Jays on time. However, Thon wound up sharing time at short over 31 games and was a designated hitter for 13 games. As a result, the right-handed hitter barely averaged over 2.5 at-bats a game over 45 contests.

Thon batted .348 during 8 games in June and hit .269 with three homers in July, though he slumped badly in August with a .109 batting average. Thon had just six extra base hits but does have the potential to grow from his current gap power to home run power as he matures. He struck out nearly 30 percent of the time of did show his potential for being a top of the order hitter by averaging a walk in just over 15 percent of his plate appearances. Thon also stole six bases in eight attempts, lending credence to his above average speed and BA�s claim he could steal 25 to 30 bases a year in the majors. With the leather, Thon is said to be a solid defender with a strong arm, soft hands and decent footwork. Other pluses said to be in his favour are his maturity and work ethic.

Thon was a high school track champion in the 200 metres in his native Puerto Rico and was also a member of the Puerto Rican youth volleyball team. He turned a down a scholarship at Rice University to sign with the Blue Jays after being taken in the 5th round of the 2010 amateur draft. Thon got a $1.5-million dollar bonus as the 156th overall pick, well above Major League Baseball�s slot recommendation of $161,100. His agent is former Blue Jay Jose Cruz Jr. Dickie will turn 20 November 24th. He could be headed to Bluefield or Vancouver in 2012.

27. Sean Nolin | LHP

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2010	21	R	1	1	2	4.5	0.0	4.5	18.0	0.00
2010	21	A-	6	6	19.1	11.6	0.0	4.2	10.2	6.05
2011	22	A	25	21	108.1	8.5	0.8	2.6	9.4	3.49

Sean Nolin is only one of a multitude of 2010 draftees to make a mark on our list, a sign of the strong first draft the Jays had under the Anthopoulos regime. After being drafted in the later rounds but not signing in 2008 and 2009, Nolin became the twelfth Jay of the 2010 haul as a 6th round pick, signing out of JuCo in Texas for $175,000. Coming out of college Nolin was a massive 6'4 220 lbs; a picture from an interview Gerry conducted with Nolin towards the end of last year really shows his girth. Nolin evidently decided to get in shape though, and he lost a ton of weight over the off-season, dropping some 40 pounds. In this video of Nolin warming up before a game earlier this year you can see a noticeable difference. His over the top delivery also looks nice and repeatable, and his fastball was sitting around 89-90 earlier in the year. He also throws a good change, and has a work in progress curve ball. In addition to cutting weight, Nolin also refined his control in 2011, moving up to the Midwest League from then-affiliate Auburn and cutting his walks from 4/9 IP in his brief stint in 2010 to just over 2.5/9 IP. He also maintained his stellar strike out rate, whiffing over a batter an inning. He also kept the ball in the park, allowing fewer than a home run a game. All of this made for a fine 2011, and Nolin should be encouraged entering 2012, where he figures to start in Dunedin, or at least quickly make the jump.

26. Michael McDade | 1B

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2008	19	A-	191	8	1	3	22	53	1	0	.257	.333	.287
2008	19	A	216	13	0	2	11	63	0	0	.194	.236	.282
2009	20	A	408	27	1	16	32	109	0	0	.277	.336	.466
2010	21	A+	480	22	1	21	27	141	2	0	.267	.315	.448
2011	22	AA	484	37	0	16	28	104	0	1	.281	.328	.457

Known affectionately by some as �man mountain� Mike McDade, this outstanding fielding and switch-hitting first baseman is a double threat, in the field as well as the plate. His penchant for power is well known in the Eastern League, with 16 HRs and 37 doubles for New Hampshire this year, despite suffering knee injuries late in the season. He batted .281 with a .785 ops. In the past he had battled his weight, but came into training camp this year more trim than many had seen him before. His other strength is his award winning and almost acrobatic fielding. He fielded .993 this year, one of the strongest percentages in the Jays organization for a first baseman. Provided he works through injuries, look for McDade to contribute with a solid future at 1B for the Jays.

McDade was born on May 8, 1989 in Las Vegas. Next year McDade should get a chance to play in his home town at the age of 22, still young for a AAA player. McDade was a 6th round draft choice back in 2007.

Batters Box interviewed McDade in June.

25. Mitchell Taylor | LHP

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2011	19	Rk	13	8	55.1	8.13	0.81	2.28	9.92	4.23

One of the least heralded, or underrated, prep pitchers from the 2010 draft, Taylor opened some eyes in 2011. Prior to the draft, the southpaw was ranked as the 22nd best draft-eligible prospect in the potent state of Texas. Overall, Baseball America ranked him as the 170th best player in the entire nation and said this about him: "... he boosted his stock more than any pitcher in the top 10 rounds... He's polished for a high schooler, throwing strikes and exhibiting good mound presence." The Jays organization drafted him in the seventh round and gave him an above-slot deal for just under $370,000 to pry him away from his commitment to the University of Houston. It looks like a smart decision as Taylor showed good control (2.28 BB/9) and posted an above-average strikeout rate (9.92 K/9) thanks to his breaking ball. He throws an 87-93 mph fastball, as well as a changeup and the aforementioned potentially-plus curveball. Taylor's ERA sat at 4.23 but he had a little bit of bad luck as witnessed by his 3.15 FIP. At one point, he allowed just four earned runs over a stretch of 32.1 innings (seven appearances). One caveat to Taylor's prospect ranking is his maturity. He faced some minor disciplinary action from the organization at the end of 2011 and also faced a suspension in his senior year of high school, which actually caused him to slip a bit in the draft. If he shows up fully committed to his career and the organization in 2012, Taylor could open the year in low-A Lansing.

24. Jacob Anderson | OF

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2011	18	RK	37	2	0	2	4	8	2	0	.405	.476	.622

The 6-foot-4, 190 pound outfielder was the first position player taken by the Jays as they grabbed him with the 35th overall pick in the supplemental first round of the 2011 amateur draft. The Jays were able to convince the Chino, California native to forego a scholarship offer from Pepperdine by giving him a $990,000 signing bonus. Anderson displayed an all-around game by batting .485 with Chino High to go along with 11 doubles, nine triples, seven homers, 31 runs batted in and 24 stolen bases. The 6-foot-4, 190 pound right-handed hitting Anderson showed off a quick, powerful and balanced swing by winning the Home Run Derby during the 2010 AFLAC All-American game at Wrigley Field.

Anderson is said to have good speed and line drive power and has played first base and third base in addition to the outfield. Some scouts believe first base may be his eventual position where he has soft hands and quick feet but others believe he can stay in one of the outfielder corner spots.

Anderson got a brief taste of pro ball by joining the Gulf Coast League Blue Jays in August. He recorded a hit in seven of his nine contests and ended the year with a six game hitting streak that included five multi-hit efforts. Though he struck out nearly 20 percent of the time, he did draw a walk in nearly 10 percent of his plate appearances. More impressively, his isolated power was an impressive .216. Anderson will turn 19 years old November 22nd. He may be headed to Bluefield in 2012.

23. Chad Jenkins | RHP

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2010	23	A	13	13	79.1	10.0	0.6	1.5	7.2	3.63
2010	23	A+	13	13	62.1	10.5	0.9	2.6	6.0	4.33
2011	24	A+	11	11	67.1	9.5	0.4	1.9	5.9	3.07
2011	24	AA	16	16	100.1	8.3	0.7	2.4	6.6	4.13

Chad Jenkins has been a steady faller through the Jays prospect hierarchy over the last couple of years. He was our number 3 Jays prospect in 2009, dropping to number 15 in 2010 and now 23. This fall is in part due to the increased depth in the system, but the primary reason is the mixed numbers Jenkins has put up, not something you hope for from a first round collegiate pitcher. A sinkerballer with a fastball that runs in the low 90s, with a good slider and a change-up, Jenkins succeeds by keeping the ball down, something he wasn't able to do to the same degree in AA this year. Where Jenkins excels is in keeping the ball in the park and limiting his walks. He hasn't allowed more than a home run every ten innings at any stop so far, and he walked just under 2.5/9 IP in 100.1 innings in New Hampshire. While Jenkins is pretty decent all around, he doesn't really excel in any particular area of the game, and he doesn't strike out a ton of batters (6.64/9 in AA this year), which makes him extremely reliant on his sinker working. While he projected as a 2/3 starter coming out of college, Jenkins doesn't appear to have the raw stuff to be anything more than a back end starter at this point. He'll likely start 2012 in New Hampshire again, but is already being lapped by Henderson Alvarez, Drew Hutchison, Nestor Molina and Deck McGuire, who are all 2-3 years younger than Jenkins but who have been promoted more aggressively and have outpitched him. At this point his best hope may be to move to the pen.

See also: BB interviews with Jenkins in 2010 and 2011.

22. Asher Wojciechowski | RHP

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2009	20	NCAA	12	12	69.2	7.9	0.4	4.4	9.7	4.39
2010	21	NCAA	17	17	125.2	8.0	0.7	2.3	11.1	3.58
2010	21	A-	3	3	12.0	4.5	0.0	3.0	8.2	0.75
2011	22	A+	25	22	130.1	10.8	1.0	2.1	6.6	4.70

The 41st overall selection in the 2010 draft, Asher Wojciechowski is a big, strong right-hander who pitched at The Citadel, where Wojciechowski was on the same strict schedule as all non-athlete recruits. He didn�t have the typical childhood of a first round pick, as he grew up in Michigan and then played baseball during his Little League years in Romania for a couple of years after his parents moved to Bucharest to perform missionary work. When they returned to the US, the Wojciechowskis moved to South Carolina for Asher�s high school years so he could play baseball year round, but he wasn�t drafted out of a Beaufort high school.

Wojciechowski chose to attend The Citadel, where he burst burst onto the scene in the summer of 2009 after a couple of solid but unremarkable seasons at The Citadel. He earned All-American honours and was named the Southern Conference pitcher of the year. Wojciechowski was drafted on the basis of a fastball that sits 93-95 and a plus slider (it has been called a slurve by Keith Law) that sits at 80-82 that he can command to both left and right-handed batters.

This year was Wojciechowski�s first real exposure to professional baseball. It wasn�t a terrible year, but Wojciechowski was quite hittable and gave up his share of homers. He was one of three 22-year-olds to get regular starts for the Blue Jays along with Deck McGuire and Nestor Molina and he allowed the most H/9, most HR/9 and the least K/9 of the group (finishing ahead of McGuire in BB/9 allowed).

Minor league stats can be misleading, as prospects may be working on a particular skill or pitch to the exclusion of another, which could lead to a worse statistical performance than relying on their more developed skills and strengths would. The optimistic interpretation would be that Wojciechowski was working on developing his change-up this year, which explains his struggles after a very strong April. However, Kevin Goldstein reports that, in fact, the opposite occurred and Wojciechowski became too reliant upon his fastball, which Florida State League hitters were able to sit on. If that�s the case, hopefully this year serves as a lesson to Wojciechowski that he needs to continue to throw and develop his second and third pitches, as he perhaps can�t ride his fastball like he did in college.

On draft day, many analysts thought Wojciechowski�s future lay in the bullpen given his two plus pitches and lack of a third option. He may find his home in the bullpen eventually, but I expect and hope the Jays continue to give Wojciechowski every chance to stick as a starter, given that he possesses the upside of a number 2 or 3 starter if those pitches do develop and he was able to go deep into games in college while maintaining his fastball velocity. He might begin 2012 in Dunedin again, but he should spend at least the second half of the year in New Hampshire.

21. Kevin Comer | RHP

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2010	18	HS	-	-	42.1	-	-	2.8	13.4	-

Kevin Comer was selected with the 57th overall pick in the 2011 draft, in the first supplementary round. Comer was selected before Daniel Norris, although Norris was thought to be a harder sign. Comer did sign on deadline day for $1.65M, thereby giving up his Vanderbilt scholarship.

Comer is a big 6'4", 210 pound right handed pitcher from southern New Jersey. That part of New Jersey is Philly country and reportedly he likes watching Roy Halladay pitch. Comer's father played NCAA football and his mother played professional basketball so there might be some growth left in that body.

Comer throws a low to mid-nineties fastball, a good curveball and a developing change-up. Last season for his high school, Comer went 5-0 in his state tournament games. Comer struck out 63 with just 13 walks in 42 1/3 innings and led his school to the state title.

There were mixed reports on Comer coming into the draft. He had pitched very well in 2010 but he missed time in 2011 due to a class trip and he had to leave another game early according to Baseball America so scouts questioned his drive and interest in turning pro. The Blue Jays obviously were less concerned.

Posted by Marc Hulet on Monday, October 03 2011 @ 09:00 AM EDT.

Blue Jays 2011 Top Prospects: 30-21 | 87 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike Green - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#245208) #

That is a fantastic #30-#21. If Jacob Anderson is your #24 prospect, you know that you have excellent depth.

hypobole - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#245215) #

Let's say you have 2 pitching prospects that are basically equal, including age, physical projection, delivery, FB velo, command/control etc. The only real difference is that one has a plus breaking ball but only a work in progress change, while the other prospect has a plus change, but a work in progress breaking ball. Would one be considered a better prospect than the other?

Dave Rutt - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#245216) #

Since change-ups are particularly effective against opposite-handed batters, I'd say if the prospects are left-handed, I'd go with the change-up guy. Opposite for sliders. I think curves are more neutral, so if they're righties I'd say they're about equal.

Jonny German - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#245217) #

Nice report.

I would like to know who the 8 people are who came up with the rankings, and who wrote each comment. "Batter's Box" is not a single mind.

Jonny German - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#245218) #

Small corrections: Joe Musgrove and Eric Arce were both in Rookie ball this year, not A.

Gerry - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#245219) #

I would go with the change-up pitcher too. It is easier to fool a hitter with a FB, change combo as both look alike out of the pitchers hand. The hitter might be able to pickup on the breaking ball faster than on a change, depending on the quality and type of the breaking ball (slider > curve).

Gerry - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#245220) #

The 8 people who came up with the rankings are your minor league crew who brought you the daily minor league updates during the season. They would be: Dave Rutt; Anders; Marc Hulet; Braden; Thomas; #2JBrumfield; Mamboon; and myself.

We usually don't put the authors name beside the write-ups.

wacker - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#245221) #

Man mountains fielding % of .993, is that considered good, real good, or ?. You mentioned one of the stronger % for organizations first baseman. Who might of had a stronger one?

John Northey - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#245223) #

Just for reference, last years #21-30 is at...
http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20100927153602360 location.

Danny Farquhar reached the bigs this year, while Brian Jeroloman got a big league paycheque.

greenfrog - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#245224) #

I agree with Mike, this is an outstanding #30-21 list. I really like Jacob Anderson, and I would expect Musgrove to rise through the ranks next year. I'm also interested to see what Comer brings to the table in 2012. Lastly, it would be great to see Jenkins train hard in the off-season and really put it all together in 2012 - if nothing else, he could be useful trade bait, akin to Zach Stewart this year.

Does this mean that Dwight Smith Jr. will make it on to the #20-11 list? I would think he would have to be on the top-30 list somewhere.

The future is bright, and the Jays could have another draft bonanza in 2012, with two first-round picks and as many as five supplemental round picks. Tyler Beede, we hardly knew ya!

Jonny German - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#245225) #

Thanks Gerry. It'd be a nice touch to have the names beside the write-ups - many of us read Batter's Box regularly enough to have an idea of the general mindsets of different writers.

One more request: Were any prospects who spent time in Toronto this year still eligible for these rankings? I guess the ones that are relevant are David Cooper and Joel Carreno, the others clearly spent too much time in Toronto.

ramone - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#245226) #

Just repeating what Mike Green stated, but this seems like a very strong bottom 30.

Looking at Wojo's numbers at the end of the year it appears he started to put things together somewhat. In his last ten starts of the year he had 56.2IP, 62H, 8BB, 41K's, 1HR and ERA of 3.18.

Also of note today BA posted their top 20 for the FSL, three Jays made the list: at 10. Jimenez, 13. Hutchison and 17. McGuire

wacker - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#245227) #

So much attention is giving to the offensive side and rightly so. But would it be possible to put tougher a list of players who led the organization at their respective position on the defensive side of the ball?

Thomas - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#245228) #

Jonny, Cooper and Carreno were both eligible.

Another reason we have tended in the past not to put names beside write-ups is that, although many times authors will choose or are encouraged to do the blurb for prospects they rated highly or felt strongly about, that isn't always possible when dividing the players among the various authors. Sometimes one of the authors will end up writing up a prospect they rated lower than most of the other ballots or they may have not had on their Top 30 at all. Although the blurbs are intended as a general description of the prospect, we don't want to give the impression that if Gerry had done the write-up on McDade that it should stand for the fact he felt McDade should be ranked where he is, when he may have placed McDade 10 spots higher or lower on his ballot.

Matthew E - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#245229) #

"Batter's Box" is not a single mind.

Sorta depends on whether you catch us on a good day or not.

greenfrog - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#245230) #

BA had some pretty positive comments on Jimenez. Here is a super-brief summary for non-subscribers:

Jimenez: voted best defensive C for 2nd year running, threw out 44% of would-be basestealers, other catching skills are good, runs well for a C, promising pitch recognition and bat speed, fringy power

Hutchison: throws 89-93, "tremendous life" on FB with very good command, change is 2nd-best pitch, slider lags behind other pitches and can get slurvy. Has the size to get stronger and maybe add a bit of velocity

McGuire: throws 88-92, no one dominant pitch but mixes pitches effectively, slider is 2nd-best pitch, good arm action on changeup, needs to tighten FB command to succeed at higher levels

Gerry - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#245231) #

One of the biggest challenges in putting together my top 30 is how to rate players who have not played yet. Players like Comer, Daniel Norris and Dwight Smith have nothing to be evaluated on, other than their draft position. And then, even their draft position can be misleading with the Jays selecting players whose bonus demands have dropped them on draft day. If Norris had said that he would sign, where would have he been drafted? How would this impact his batters box ranking compared to Musgrove who went with the 46th pick in the draft?

This makes it hard for a site like ours to know exactly how to rank those players. As a result some of those newly drafted players, other than the top pick which this year basically defaulted to Norris, get under-played in our rankings. Without giving too much away Dwight Smith did not make the top 30. He probably will make Baseball America's top 30 unless he looks bad in instructional league. Similarly Jacob Anderson will almost assuredly be rated higher by BA as well.

It's what makes the lists different and gives rise to debate.

Thomas - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#245232) #

If Jacob Anderson is your #24 prospect, you know that you have excellent depth.

It is a much more pleasing list than the one that finished with Ty Taubenheim as 11th ranked prospect.

85bluejay - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#245233) #

Listening to AA, this is likely to be a very active offseason & I expect several of the top 30 prospects to get moved, especially the B & C types - Sierra/Jimmenez/McGuire/Jenkins etc.

That's one of the benefits of a farm system with good depth.

John Northey - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#245234) #

Not sure if the guys doing it would want to (or have time to) but it would be nice to have links for each guy leading to their B-R page or Baseball Cube page (they list college stats often).

For example, Eric Arce's cube page has college stats, uniform number (34), and a note about how he was drafted twice by the Jays, 27th round in 2010 and 25th in 2011.

Helpmates - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#245235) #

I'm intrigued by the idea of keeping Anderson at first base...given his size/body type, maybe he could develop into a Derek Lee-type player.

Ishai - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#245236) #

I would rather have a young pitcher with a well-developed slider than a well-developed change-up, because change-ups are easier to learn. A change-up is really just a grip. If a kid has been playing high level baseball for awhile but has not shown the ability to spin a breaking ball, they are going to have a hard time learning. Prospects with dominant stuff often don't need a change-up in high school/college, so they don't work hard on it. But everyone is always trying to spin a breaking ball.

bpoz - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#245239) #

Great work guys. Excellent write ups especially with the links for Jenkins. The 2 interviews helped me understand that he wants to have a 4 pitch arsenal.
So with his FB sinker & slider pretty much mastered, his GB ability should not improve much. The Ks however should improve when his Change (getting there) and Curve (long way off?) are mastered. IMO.

Greenfrog, I thought Dwight Smith may not make the top 30, but you mentioning him makes me think that I under valued him. Any way it does not matter. He was drafted high maybe he follows E Thames route. E Arce missed a year of playing, so he is rested but rusty.
I like Cino Rosado, I hope he makes the 31-42 list of extras because I want to read the details on him.

Richard S.S. - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#245240) #

Small corrections: Joe Musgrove and Eric Arce were both in Rookie ball this year, not A.

Joe Musgrove started in GCL (21.2 IP) and was promoted to Bluefield (RK+) for 1 start (3.0) and Post-Season play. Eric Arce started in GCL (153 AB) and was promoted to Bluefield (RK+) for 6 games (19 AB) and Post-season play. That's not just Rookie ball thank you.

Listening to AA, this is likely to be a very active offseason...

Considering how active A.A. might be, would a 40-31 list be useful? Or would revised lists go up prior to Spring Training, if needed?

Mike Green - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#245241) #

To highlight another player, Sean Nolin is a great prospect for a #27 in the organization. Yes, he's 22 years old in the Midwest League, but subjectively there is a lot to like. He lost weight during the off-season and developed in all areas, and aside from his age, you would really like him. The age would be, in my view, more signficant for a position player than for a starting pitcher (especially a left-handed one).

hypobole - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#245242) #

That's not just Rookie ball thank you.

Both the Gulf Coast and Appalachian are rookie leagues, the Appy is just a higher level of rookie ball.

sam - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#245243) #

I appreciate this reviews. They're accurate and don't really coat the analysis with incredible bias or ridiculous optimism.

Thanks to all!

Mick Doherty - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#245244) #

"Batter's Box" is not a single mind.

Sorta depends on whether you catch us on a good day or not.

<irony> I strongly disagree. </irony>

hypobole - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#245245) #

Sorry Richard, didn't notice the "(Rk+)" until I actually read your post instead of just skimming it.

TamRa - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#245246) #

10. Jimenez, 13. Hutchison and 17. McGuire

BA's league-lists MUST but a heavy emphasis on games played in the league.

Otherwise I'm seriously underestimating Jimenez or they are seriously underestimating Hutchison.

Gerry - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#245247) #

BA just posted the averages for each league in 2011:

LEAGUE AVERAGES
LEAGUE	LVL	AVG	OBP	SLG	R/9	BB	SO	ISO	BIP	HR	RUNS
International	AAA	.260	.329	.400	4.46	8.2	19.7	.140	.308	122	620
Pacific Coast	AAA	.286	.359	.448	5.68	9.1	17.6	.162	.329	148	798
Eastern	AA	.259	.329	.395	4.63	8.2	19.9	.136	.311	106	632
Southern	AA	.263	.339	.400	4.79	8.7	18.7	.137	.312	102	649
Texas	AA	.265	.337	.410	5.00	8.3	18.8	.144	.310	129	685
California	HIA	.277	.349	.430	5.66	8.7	20.0	.153	.331	131	782
Carolina	HIA	.250	.322	.379	4.35	8.2	19.8	.128	.301	91	582
Florida State	HIA	.262	.331	.386	4.57	8.0	19.0	.124	.313	88	608
Midwest	LOA	.250	.323	.370	4.50	8.4	20.6	.120	.306	85	606
South Atlantic	LOA	.260	.332	.392	4.87	8.3	20.1	.133	.314	98	658

The Midwest, Florida State and Eastern leagues all have lower offensive numbers.

TamRa - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#245248) #

I think I could make a pretty good guess at 17 of the remaining 20 names. i always find it interesting to compare my list to those compiled by better informed folks.

Jonny German - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#245249) #

I noticed the 3 innings and the 19 at-bats and just shook my head. The fog is winning.

Gerry - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#245250) #

Hutchison has now been twice ranked this year by BA in the teens. Why is he not top ten?

If we look at the FSL rankings there are six pitchers ranked above Hutchison, here are the fastball speeds for all six plus Hutch, see if you can guess which one is Hutchison;

Reaches 95-97

Sits 91-94 up to 98

Sits low 90's, peaks at 94

Pitches in mid-nineties, up to 97

Pitches in mid-nineties, up to 100

Pitches in mid-nineties, up to 99

Sits 89-93

Did you guess which one is Hutch? There are just two to pick from, the third one or the last, and Hutch is the last. The third one is Trevor May who led the FSL with 208 strikeouts.

Hutchison, or Nestor Molina, won't score as well with BA because of their fastball speeds. Pitchability, which is Hutchison's strength, doesn't get rewarded as much as raw stuff. Hutchison probably has a greater likelyhood of being successful in the majors as many of these hard throwers but if the hard throwers can develop pitchability they can be #1 starters.

Mike Green - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#245251) #

Greg Maddux was a heckuva #3, I tell you.

hypobole - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#245252) #

I'm a big Jiminez fan. A very good defensive catcher who can hit and draw walks has an excellent chance of having a career in the major leagues, even if his lack of power precludes him from ever being a star.

Jonny German - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#245253) #

if the hard throwers can develop pitchability they can be #1 starters.

Does this happen tho? Do the really hard throwers become #1s more often than the guys throwing in the low 90s?

Here are the average fastball velocities of some of the top starters in 2011 (per Fangraphs). This is a quick list off the top of my head, I haven't intentionally cherry-picked hard or soft throwers. Unless these guys all threw harder when they were in the minors, it doesn't seem that an overpowering fastball is a key tool.

95.0	Verlander
93.9	Sabathia
93.4	Kershaw
93.3	Hernandez
93.1	Beckett
92.7	Lester
92.5	Gonzalez
92.3	Lincecum
92.0	Halladay
92.0	Romero
91.9	Cain
91.7	Hamels
91.5	Lee
91.0	Shields
91.0	Wilson
90.0	Fister
89.9	Kennedy
89.2	Weaver

Mike Green - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#245255) #

Most of the list were hard throwers originally, but most also had a good idea of how to pitch. Sometimes a really hard thrower with control problems will find the magic key and become great (like Koufax and Randy Johnson), and sometimes a pitcher without the 95 mph fastball will become great in some other way by mastering other elements of pitching (like Maddux, Key or Cliff Lee).

Stuff generally is important, but the idea that you must have a 95 mph fastball to be a top pitching prospect reflects a view that is not consistent with the history of the game.

uglyone - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#245256) #

Great work.

Man, if guys like Woj and Anderson can't crack your top-20, then you have one helluva farm system. These guys would be top-10 in many other systems.

Marc Hulet - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#245257) #

I actually got contacted by Asher's dad after I wrote about him at FanGraphs recently. According to him, the Jays adjusted his delivery mid-season, which led to 6.06 and 10.62 ERAs in May and June. He went back to his old delivery in July and his numbers once again looked good.

bpoz - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#245258) #

I suppose it is impossible to make a list for pitchability.

Reading the interview of Matt Moore of TB, he could be a candidate for both velocity & pitchability.

sam - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#245259) #

Cliff Lee throws pretty hard. I think he pitches with his fastball 91-95. That's above average from the left side.

I think the sentiment that the BA writers are expressing is power pitching is valued by clubs. Moreover, power pitching wins in October.

I agree that Hutchison maybe should be ranked higher, but I echo Gerry's comments, BA rankings are about projections, and I would tend to agree that the pitcher with the upper nineties fastball projects better than the one with an average fastball.

I guess the old adage that you can't teach arm strength is applicable here, command and pitchability you can. Does Roy Halladay not make a good example of this?

92-93 - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#245260) #

So who's left? I'm sure I'll miss a few of the Top 20, making the system even stronger.

Pitchers (9) : Drew Hutchison, Justin Nicolino, Noah Syndergaard, Daniel Norris, Deck McGuire, Aaron Sanchez, Adonis Cardona, Joel Carreno, Nestor Molina

Position Players (11) : Travis D'Arnaud, Jake Marisnick, Anthony Gose, Adeiny Hechavarria, Marcus Knecht, AJ Jimenez, Chris Hawkins, Michael Crouse, David Cooper, Moises Sierra, Carlos Perez

Toss in the International class of Roberto Osuna, Dawel Lugo, Gabriel Cenas, and Santiago Nessy (among others) and you have a deep, well-layered system.

ramone - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#245261) #

The BA FSL top 20 ongoing chat already has some Jays related question under way:

"Greg T (London): Hi Jim. Did Dunedin righty Nestor Molina get any consideration for the Top 20? Looks like he put up some impressive numbers! Thanks!

Jim Shonerd: Molina was close, and you'll be able to read a scouting report on him in the Prospect Pulse section of the upcoming print and digital editions of the magazine. In short, he's got two quality offerings in his 91-93 mph fastball and his splitter. He was a reliever until this year, so he's still working on developing a consistent breaking pitch."

"Henry (Toronto): Is Wojo a future SP or RP? Prospect or suspect?

Jim Shonerd: Guys believed in Wojciechowski enough as a starter, though his command got away from him at times this year. He just doesn't have anything that's above average in his 89-91 fastball, his changeup and a slider he's trying to tighten."

Nelson (Tacoma, WA): Nice to see AJ Jiminez getting some props. Do you see him moving up to New Hampshire next year?

Jim Shonerd: Absolutely."

So not encouraging news on Wojo, seems like he's lost 3-5 mph off the fastball since college, perhaps as Marc mentions above now that he's gone back to his original delivery perhaps the mph may increase again, or already did late in the year.

Thomas - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#245262) #

Marc, did Asher's dad go into specifics about how the delivery was adjusted or why the change was made? (If that is something you can reveal.)

Ron - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#245264) #

Is AJ Jiminez simply a better defensive version of Robinson Diaz (who for some reason hasn't been able to crack the international brotherhood of backup catchers)?

dan gordon - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#245265) #

Always good to see the top 30 lists again. Most of these guys are very close to where I have them on my list. Arce is the one who differs by the most. I have him outside my top 50. I have McDade a fair bit higher based on his performance vs his age at AA and considering his 2nd half was hurt by injury. I have Taylor outside the top 30.

D. Smith is not in my top 30 either.

I agree with the comment about preferring a prospect with a good breaking ball to a guy with a good changeup, due to the changeup being easier to learn.

Although velocity is obviously very important, I think at times too much emphasis is placed on it. K/BB ratio is a good predictor of future success. That was one of Bill James' favourites. One thing about guys who throw hard - they often have longer careers than soft-tossers. Most pitchers naturally lose velocity as they age, and when you throw 95 and lose 4 or 5 miles per hour, it is easier to adjust and remain effective than if you throw 89 and lose 4 or 5 miles per hour.

hypobole - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#245266) #

John. thanks for the link to last years list.

One of the more disappointing prospects from that list was young lefty Griffin Murphy. I was thinking of asking if anyone knew the cause of his struggles in the GCL, but one line from his scouting report seemed to have the answer:

"The 19-year old is said to have a delivery that is similar to Angels lefty Scott Kazmir and a build like Phillies southpaw Joe Blanton".

Yikes!

Mike Green - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#245267) #

Nope. Jiminez does a bunch of things better than Diaz. He runs better, walks more, and hits for a little more pop. Diaz would hit 60% ground balls, 20% line drives and 20% fly balls and would strike out very little. Jimenez strikes out a little more, hits fewer ground balls and more line drives. Diaz was a GIDP machine.

He reminds me of one of those Pirates' catchers from the 70s and 80s who could hit .300, run well for a catcher, play good defence and hit the occasional homer.

wacker - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#245268) #

2011 Cooper 1B 106 946 874 66 6 104 .994 8.87
2011 mcdade 1B 115 973 909 57 7 79 .993 8.40
2011 talley 1B 102 992 923 63 6 75 .994 9.67
2011 hobson 1B 124 1179 1058 96 25. 82. .979 9.31
E. %. RF/G

Here's the fielding stats for the first baseman of the four full season teams. Pretty close except for hobsons 25 errors.

bpoz - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#245269) #

Were Intl FA signings & DSL players not considered for the 30 prospect list?

It is probably hard to get information on them. But Jairo Labourt became a favorite of mine. His poor finish probably would have dropped him off the list anyway. He played in 12 games all starts gave up 9ER and all were in his last 5 starts. He seemed untouchable in his first 7 starts. I was looking forward to reading a bit about him.

92-93 - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#245270) #

I think they were considered it's just too hard to put a value on them with such limited information. I wouldn't be surprised if Cardona is the only one in the top 20, which means that the system's 31-40 prospects are probably filled with high upside 16-18 year olds like Osuna, Lugo, Bacerra, Nessy, Labourt, Dean, etc.

Gerry - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#245271) #

The comment I made above about the 2011 draftees applies also to the international signings. We just don't have enough information to make an informed decision about them. Some voters did put players like Osuna in their top 30 but more didn't.

hypobole - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#245272) #

No Dwight Smith in the Top 30, yet a number of players drafted after him are and will be. The Jays must see something in him to draft him where they did. But I think there are few, if any fans truly excited to have him in our system. He's like Jimenez, in that they seem to be buzzless. There is nothing eyepopping about anything they do and seem to be downgraded for that reason.

I'm not saying Smith should be in the Top 30, it's just an observation..

Anders - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#245273) #

To highlight another player, Sean Nolin is a great prospect for a #27 in the organization. Yes, he's 22 years old in the Midwest League, but subjectively there is a lot to like.

Nolin is a young 22 - his birthday is towards the end of December, so it's just a consistency thing putting him at 22 as opposed to his current age of 21. The fact that he lost a lot of weight is probably decent enough reason to be encouraged.

Thomas - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#245274) #

In unrelated minor league news, PJ Walters elected free agency yesterday, bringing an end to the last non-Rasmus player Toronto had in the organization.

rtcaino - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#245275) #

We still have Mark Teahan from that trade - although he came from CWS and not St Louis.

brent - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#245276) #

Did anyone actually see Thon play? I know the batting stats aren't there, but I was wondering if anyone had actually seen his defense not just going on reports?

DaveB - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#245277) #

Great job by all involved in the rankings and thanks to all eight for their work this season. The farm system is so deep now that a strong case could be made for 10-15 others to fit in this range. I agree with Dan's view of Arce (too high) and McDade (too low).

Richard S.S. - Monday, October 03 2011 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#245279) #

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/waltepj01.shtml and http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=walter001phi shows we shouldn't miss P.J. Walters. Was he properly developed over his career, or abused in College?

Mark Teahen http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teahema01.shtml is versitile, playing key positions (1B, 3B, RF). He should be on the roster, next season, as his contract (1year, $5.5 MM) might be a bargain. Finding a replacement to play his positions, and 'hit' better, might be costly when added to a buy-out.

John Northey - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#245288) #

Given two guys from this list last year (the 21-30 list) made it to the bigs this year for the Jays, who are the candidates to do so this year?

Asher Wojciechowski has a slim shot - pitchers can move quickly if things click.

Michael McDade and Chad Jenkins though have very good shots as both should be in AAA this year which means an injury or ineffectiveness can get them a shot quick.

Chuck - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#245292) #

He should be on the roster, next season, as his contract (1year, $5.5 MM) might be a bargain.

I'm sure AA would love to find another GM who concurred that Teahen's contract might be a bargain and not an albatross. It's not clear that Teahen is any better than a replacement level player at this point in his career, which would make him overpaid by a factor of 10.

bpoz - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#245295) #

The Rasmus trade. Possible analysis. I am sure others understand this better.

1)Only Teahen left.
2)We still owe St Louis.

Various pitchers playing pro baseball came from St Louis to Toronto. IMO these pitchers were not highly regarded by either organization. However the payrolls of both teams were affected.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#245302) #

Hmm....Replacement player needed.

Must be at least average defensively (or better than Mark Teahen) at 1B; plus, must be at least average defensively (or better than Mark Teahen) at 3B; plus, must be at least average defensively (or better than Mark Teahen) at RF; plus, must be at least average defensively (or better than Mark Teahen) at LF. This won't be that cheap (not found in-house).

Oops....Must also be at least average offensively (or better than Mark Teahen); plus, must be worth at least 1.3 WAR ($5.5 MM buyout + $1.0 MM replacement value for positional versibilty).

Oh yeah....One more thing. A.A. must decide Mark Teahen's contract is an onerous liability.

bpoz - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#245303) #

Wacker, Just out of curiosity, do you think there is more strength at 1st base in the total Jay's system now or last year when the season ended. We lost Overbay and started the season with a fairly big ? in Lind.

Even the Minors had ?s going into 2011. Cooper?

bpoz - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#245306) #

Richard SS you make a good point about M Teahen. Sure AA will let him go to anyone who will take his contract.

I would like to know how good he can be defensively at 3B. Because if Lawrie struggles or gets injured we would need a replacement. Many will suggest J Bautista and that is a good choice but it took a bit long IMO for it to happen in 2011. Of course Lawrie did get injured late in the year and EE helped fill in.

John Northey - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#245307) #

Uh, Richard, you did see Teahen this year right? OPS+ of 55, WAR of -0.4 (both Toronto & Chicago), WAR of -0.7 last year, in fact negative WAR every season of his career except 2006 when he hit 290/357/517. Now, that is B-R. Fangraphs has him negative in all but 2 years (2006/2007) and -0.4 this year (wow, they agree!).

Teahen, unless the Jays have found something in his swing or defense that can be fixed, is a sub-replacement level player. IE: the Jays would win more often by finding a good AAAA guy than they would with Teahen. This is based on each of his last 4 seasons. His defense at 3B is Encarnacion level at -12.3 UZR/150 lifetime (Encarnacion is at -12.7). The $5.5 he is owned for 2012 is a sunk cost - nothing can be done about it, it is spent unless someone else wants him.

Mike McCoy is a mild negative at 3B and SS (less than 1 run below average) and a positive defensively everywhere else. His WAR is positive 2 of his 3 ML seasons (Fangraphs). John McDonald is a mild negative at 3B but strong everywhere else in the infield. His WAR has been negative 5 times, positive 8 times (2 years running).

There you go - McCoy & McDonald - two affordable guys, both like playing here, one is here already other a free agent who won't cost a ton. Both better than Teahen.

Net cost: ML minimum (McCoy) and probably $1 mil for McDonald. So you gain 1 WAR (difference between Teahen & McDonald) for $1 mil or so. Good deal.

Dave Rutt - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#245310) #

Who's going to be on the bench next year?

1. back-up catcher
2. someone who can play CF
3. someone who can play the middle infield

that leaves only one spot, and I would guess it would go to a 1B/OF bat like Snider or Cooper.

Mark Teahen's "positional flexibility" is actually not that useful. There are plenty of 1B/OF types in the upper levels of the organization. That only leaves 3B, which I would argue is not as important for the Jays to back up next year - they're gonna want Lawrie playing pretty much every day, and Bautista can fill in in a pinch. Plus, whoever's backing up the middle infield can probably back up 3B as well. There just isn't any need for Teahen.

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#245312) #

EE can also fill in at third base, if Bautista and Lawrie are unavailable. There are three letters for Mark Teahen, and they are kinder than Dan Savage's DTMFA but...

I get no pleasure from this, so schadenfreude hell is not quite the right place for me.

ayjackson - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#245316) #

Bench player? How about JD Drew?

His horrible 2011 will result in him being non-tendered (won't cost a pick), but his previous worst season by wOBA was .342 in 2002. He might be a good corner OF/DH/1B option to compliment EE at a reasonable cost. He could also be a FA pick play, depending on what happens in collective bargaining.

Thomas - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#245317) #

There are three letters for Mark Teahen, and they are kinder than Dan Savage's DTMFA but...

If you were feeling cruel, I think Dan's acronym may also apply to Teahen. As several have suggested, he adds nothing to the 2012 roster as it is currently (and presumably will be) constituted.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#245323) #

OK, Gentlepeople and E.T.s, you've made your point. However, if A.A. DFA / waives Teahen, A.A.'s going for it, no matter what he says. Of course if he "Ninja's" Teahen in a trade?

vw_fan17 - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#245327) #

Bench player? How about JD Drew?

He'll be 36 next year, after 3 straight years of decline.. Which is around the age most players used to start falling off a cliff before PEDs..

For $2-3M, maybe..

John Northey - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#245332) #

JD Drew I'd like if the Jays were needing a backup OF/DH who could be pressed into service full-time, or if the Jays had major holes all over the outfield.

But a guy with a 68 OPS+ this year, 109 last makes me nervous. He was a 130+ for the 2 years before that and has a lifetime 125 so I'd expect a 100 range OPS+ next year.

In the end we already have a batch of left handed hitting corner outfielders on the roster (Snider, Thames, Loewen) and DH/1B types (Lind, Cooper) so adding another who is well past his prime to the mix just doesn't make sense. I'd think at this point any of those 5 the Jays have are as likely (or more so) to have a 120+ OPS+ season (which we need to see from a LF/DH) as JD Drew in 2012 and far more likely in 2013 and beyond. Baltimore might take a flyer, hoping to flip him mid-season. The Jays won't.

Original Ryan - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#245353) #

However, if A.A. DFA / waives Teahen, A.A.'s going for it, no matter what he says.

If Teahen gets waived, it'll be because he's a terrible baseball player. That's the only thing you'll be able to read into it. He'll just be following in the footsteps of Trever Miller and Brian Tallet.

Jdog - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#245363) #

Vega-rosada wins the Webster and can't crack the top 30. Can you say DEEP!

wacker - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#245365) #

Bpoz-Lind had a decent year but you'd like to see his ops higher especially for a first baseman. He defense was good at a .996 fielding. I don't know what his future with the jays is. Cooper definitely can put the bat on the ball but where's the power? Will it develop? When? He's almost 25 years old. Is he the proto type first baseman at 6'? I don't know. For the rest of minors, I've only seen maybe three of them in person. The rest I can only go by what I read. The power is down at lower levels it seems. Big guys. Charles, Patterson, Hobson. Maybe the power will develop with hobson. All three of them need to clean up there defense. Mcdade to me seems to be the one the blue jays have cast their lot in and why not. He's a good hitter. I have seen him in person and the potential is there. All the talk about "bad body" the potential is there for that too. I like him though and I think he knows what he needs to do. I've also seen talley in person and he's a big guy. A body that could look natural at 250-260. His power numbers were pretty good hitting 20 homeruns but the average is not there yet. Will it? I don't know. Seems to taken to first base pretty good as his fielding stats bear out. Call me crazy but I think he's underrated. Time will tell. I like him too. I just don't know yet cause they're all still young. It's going to be fun to see how it all shakes out........

Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 01:29 AM EDT (#245368) #

defense was good at a .996 fielding.

Fielding percentage, for a first baseman, is only slightly more relevant than good grooming. Even Prince Fielder managed .990. Lind's defense was not good.

92-93 - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 01:50 AM EDT (#245369) #

Adam Lind's defense is not the problem. He has hit .216/.256/.345 vs. LHP the last 3 seasons.

wacker - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 07:05 AM EDT (#245370) #

Magpie, tell that to the many infielders whose ass was saved an error by a good defensive first baseman.

Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 07:20 AM EDT (#245371) #

Saving another infielder from an error - not something Lind was all that brilliant at anyway - is not something that appears in the first baseman's fielding percentage. Everybody is at .990 or better, even Prince Fielder. So... slightly more important than good grooming.

smcs - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#245372) #

Also, this. Key takeaway: "In fact, it appears that the spread in talent between the best and worst �scoopers� at first base is on the order of 2-3 runs, plus or minus (a 4-6 run spread). So before you start opining about how your favorite first baseman is so great defensively because he �saves so many errors,� consider that scooping ability is probably worth less than a � of total defensive ability or value at first base. Fielding grounders is at least 75% of the package and �scooping� is the rest. But every little bit helps."

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#245373) #

If you go through the comments, the takeaway is modified. Fielding grounders is probably not quite 75% of the job of the first baseman. First, the scooping number spread is probably a little low because it only counts the value of a saved error when many scoops "save" an infield hit. Second, you have to consider also the first baseman's ability to throw and start the DP. Third, the routine grounder to first base is converted into an out more than any other ball in play. A 3U is a lot easier than a 5-3 or a 6-3.

wacker - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#245374) #

It doesn't show up in fielding % that doesn't mean it can be discounted. Picking balls is not easy. Mcdade is in my opinion the best we have at it. If Lind struggles with it wouldn't you agree that's a minus on him?

Thomas - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#245375) #

If Lind struggles with it wouldn't you agree that's a minus on him?

I'm sure he would. I think Magpie's point was that we have no idea if Lind is any good at it by looking at his .996 fielding percentage. We only get a sense of that by watching Lind regularly (or from advanced statistics that fans probably don't have access to). Fielding percentage doesn't tell us much about a 1B's fielding ability. There's a world of difference between Pujols and Fielder and it isn't revealed in those two numbers.

bpoz - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#245383) #

Thanks wacker. I have liked McDade because he won State awards as a catcher when he was very young 14years old?. Then too much weight gain caused problems for him.

I am sure it happens often that a young very talented athlete coasts on ability alone. Winning awards is an accomplishment, as only 1 person gets the award. So I was impressed that he did it at catcher and is a switch hitter. Hitting often makes the biggest impression.

I liked Talley as well because he is young and big. He did receive some positives as possibly developing into a decent power hitter. The problem was that he was getting only 250 ABs per year because he was learning the catching position. The low ABs IMO has to hurt hitting development.

wacker - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#245497) #

Bpoz-definitely has hindered development also IMO. It may not be with the jays and more and likely not, but a young kid at 22 who has incredible natural power, reports say some homeruns were 450+, and can only get stronger and plays decent defense and can catch and bats left. I think he'll land on his feet somewhere.

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