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It's been a bad 24 hours for people involved in running 100 million dollar teams, as the Mets have fired Willie Randolph overnight and the Mariners let GM Bill Bavasi go yesterday afternoon.


I get the decision to fire Randolph, though how much it will accomplish I do not know. Randolph had a 302-253 record with the club. The Mets have a payroll of $138 million dollars, and are 34-35. Over the last 162 games, dating back to last season, the Mets are 82-80. Randolph also didn't help his cause when he complained about, however rightly or wrongly, a racial bias against him by the team's broadcasters. Still, how much of this is his fault is unclear. It's not his fault that Omar Minaya signed Luis Castillo to a four year, twenty-five million dollar contract to play second base. Its not his fault that Carlos Delgado is quickly becoming a liability at first, that the team didn't have enough starting pitching for when Pedro got injured, etc. Someone's head had to roll though.

Randolph is replaced by bench Coach Jerry Manuel. Manuel had a 500 - 471 record in six seasons with the White Sox.

Meanwhile the timing of the Bavasi firing is puzzling. This is Bavasi's 5th season with the Mariners, and in his previous four the team has been outscored by 19, 36, 52, and 125 runs. The year before he arrive the team outscored its opponents by 158 runs. Only a fluke year last year saved Bavasi's job, and in turn caused him to trade a promising young outfielder, a top flight reliever and a couple of other prospects for Erik Bedard. Few of Bavasi's free agent signings have worked out (Jarrod Washburn, Richie Sexson, Carlos Silva and Adrian Beltre come to mind) and the Mariners have had a payroll well over $100 million dollars the last few years - its currently $117 million. The team is basically a bunch of swing happy guys who don't walk or play defense - they are the anti-Blue Jays of sorts. The puzzling part is that Bavasi was good enough to be the GM two weeks ago when the amateur draft occurred, in which the Mariners first pick was a college reliever expected to make it to the bigs quickly. I bet thats a decision the Mariners would like to have back - I don't know how a reliever is going to help them not lose 100 games - they are currently on pace to finish 56 and 106.

Anyway, who's the next coach/GM to be fired? I'd guess that Clint Hurdle, Bruce Bochy and John Gibbons have to be facing the most pressure at the moment.



Mets Fire Randolph; Mariners can Bavasi | 12 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Dan Daoust - Tuesday, June 17 2008 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#187305) #

So the Yankees pretty much have to trade for another starter, right?  Like an A.J. Burnett, maybe?  Maybe something that brings Matsui or Abreau here, somehow?  I'm terrible at coming up with all the secondary pieces of these types of trades, but the salaries match up just fine.  Thoughts?

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 17 2008 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#187307) #
Ricciardi has often been lambasted for his college-heavy drafts.  Check out the 2008 Seattle draft.

Anyways, the Mariners are working on 2012.  The Mets still might win it all in 2008.

Pistol - Tuesday, June 17 2008 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#187308) #
It's funny, I thought the same thing with Burnett, although I don't think the Yankees would trade anyone that's a current contributor.

But I was thinking something like Burnett for Hughes.  The Yankees could be desperate enough and/or lost a little faith in Hughes to pull the trigger.  And I've thought that they'd go after Burnett in the offseason so they'd get a head start there (and not have to give up a draft pick) and the Jays would get a player for next year who's good and cheap and better than the average return you'd get from compensation picks.

John Northey - Tuesday, June 17 2008 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#187309) #
Quick check of the basements...

AL East...
Blue Jays at 35-36, Py:38-33
When a team performs worse than their runs for/against the manager normally takes the fall

AL Central...
Kansas City at 28-42, Py: 29-41
New manager, GM in his 2nd full season, team was sub 400 the two years before current GM came in plus sub 400 during the full year he took over. I'd think both are safe for now.

AL West...
Seattle at 24-46, Py: 27-43
GM gone, manager safe until the new GM comes in and will probably last the season unless the new GM likes Randolph.

NL East...
Washington at 29-42, Py: 27-44
2nd year for the manager, Jim Bowden as GM is fairly safe still although I don't know why

Cincinnati at 33-38, Py: 32-39
Dusty Baker just took over so he is safe, Walt Jocketty I think is fairly safe on a team into its 8th year of sub 500 ball

Colorado at 28-42, Py: 28-42
Clint Hurdle was wonderful last year, and now is an idiot but should be safe until 2009. Same for the GM.


Given all that I figure Gibbons is on the hottest hot seat for now. #2 would be the Yankee manager Joe Girardi just due to it being NY and the team not really being more than a 500 team although their pitching is getting more solid by the day (97 ERA+ now) despite (or perhaps due to) various injuries.
ChicagoJaysFan - Tuesday, June 17 2008 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#187313) #
The puzzling part is that Bavasi was good enough to be the GM two weeks ago when the amateur draft occurred, in which the Mariners first pick was a college reliever expected to make it to the bigs quickly. I bet thats a decision the Mariners would like to have back

I actually think doing the firing almost immediately post-draft makes sense.  Changing the GM anytime shortly before the draft is really going to have a negative impact - the new GM will have little to no experience working with the scouts, with the team's farm system, with the coaches, little to no communication with the expected top picks, etc.  If you want a new GM to run the draft, you've got to give him a few months beforehand to get ready.  It's not like you can just switch the GM chair at the table and all of a sudden the draft works out better.

However, by firing Bavasi now, they'll give the new GM just about the maximum possible time to get ready for the next big GM-decision time - the trading deadline.

If you're going to fire your GM, I think this is the best "mid-season" time to do it.  I also think that beginning of September is the only other time you should do it, although I'd consider that the off-season, because if you're firing your GM, you're most likely not coming close to making the playoffs. Of course, you do have non-performance based issues, that would have to be dealt with immediately, which could lead to good reasons for firing GMs outside of those two times.
ayjackson - Tuesday, June 17 2008 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#187315) #

A few thoughts...

  • I think there were some rumblings from scouts this year that Phil Hughes has not regained his velocity from his injury last year.  I'd be leary about acquiring him.
  • Burnett, for his part, would get eaten alive in the Bronx.  Imagine tipping his cap to that crowd.
  • I'm trying to think of recent Jim Bowden blunders and am coming up empty....his luck/skill may have changed for the better.  Bray for Kearns/Lopez was a good piece of business, as was signing Guzman and Young.  Milledge will likely come up trumps eventually.  He's also turned that farm from worst to one of the best in two drafts.
  • I think Washington must be awash with cash and will have to spend money this offseason.  I think that's where Burnett is headed.
  • Moises Alou for Jays manager!  (if he'd only retire)
  • How about Burnett for Pelfrey and Alou?
Anders - Tuesday, June 17 2008 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#187316) #
I actually think doing the firing almost immediately post-draft makes sense.  Changing the GM anytime shortly before the draft is really going to have a negative impact - the new GM will have little to no experience working with the scouts, with the team's farm system, with the coaches, little to no communication with the expected top picks, etc.  If you want a new GM to run the draft, you've got to give him a few months beforehand to get ready.  It's not like you can just switch the GM chair at the table and all of a sudden the draft works out better.

Well the scouting director is the person who makes most of the decisions about the draft, certainly after the first round. The GM obviously shapes the organizational philosophy, but it is the scouting director and his staff that does the draft work. Theoretically you should be drafting the best possible players, at least in the first couple of rounds - by the time you get to organizational depth type players, the GM is certainly not in the picture anymore. In addition, the Interim GM comes from within the Mariners organization, so it's not like he wouldn't know any of their players. My point is that at a certain instance the goals of Bavasi (keeping his job) and the Mariners (becoming a better team for next/two/three years from now, are not aligned. In this case, Bavasi drafted a college reliever, who while a good player, is not really the type of long term building block a team as bad as the Mariners would presumably be better off with.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 17 2008 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#187317) #
Moises Alou's career is one for the books.  It is very unusual for a player to come up at age 25, put up a .282/.328/.455 line and be an effective player until he is 40. 
ChicagoJaysFan - Tuesday, June 17 2008 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#187320) #
Well the scouting director is the person who makes most of the decisions about the draft, certainly after the first round. The GM obviously shapes the organizational philosophy, but it is the scouting director and his staff that does the draft work.

I'm just handling this part separate because you seem to be disagreeing with yourself here - if what you say is true in the above quote, then why does it matter that you have a new GM in place for the draft or go with the old guy?

Theoretically you should be drafting the best possible players, at least in the first couple of rounds - by the time you get to organizational depth type players, the GM is certainly not in the picture anymore. In addition, the Interim GM comes from within the Mariners organization, so it's not like he wouldn't know any of their players. My point is that at a certain instance the goals of Bavasi (keeping his job) and the Mariners (becoming a better team for next/two/three years from now, are not aligned. In this case, Bavasi drafted a college reliever, who while a good player, is not really the type of long term building block a team as bad as the Mariners would presumably be better off with.

The first round is so much more important than any other round that who makes the decisions afterwards doesn't make nearly as much of an impact.   Your odds of getting a player in the first round alone are close to the odds of you getting a player in almost the rest of the entire draft.  Based off of memory, I think you expect about .6 of a player in the first round and a bit less than 2 players in the rest of the draft (for 2-3 players per draft).  In the latter rounds, luck and randomness play more of a role in getting players, as most of those picks are just filling out rosters.

Most importantly, you do not lose the mis-alignment of goals by having an interim GM.  If anything, you exaggerate them as everyone is all of a sudden looking at short-term retention of their jobs, not just the GM. As one example - do you think an interim GM isn't looking to make a splash so that he can remove the interim from his title or at least get a shot elsewhere?
parrot11 - Tuesday, June 17 2008 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#187331) #
Just to add to what CJF is saying, a GM can certainly have a far reaching impact on the whole draft. For example, JP clearly dictated the demographics to consider, when he at first said no to consider prep prospects or guys who want way above slot and now not wanting to consider prep arms. Obviously, some GM's are content of giving their scouting directors almost full autonomy (e.g. Logan White), which I think is the preferable way to conduct things.
scottt - Tuesday, June 17 2008 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#187344) #
Moises Alou's career is one for the books.  It is very unusual for a player to come up at age 25, put up a .282/.328/.455 line and be an effective player until he is 40.

I thought Moises would have finished his career as a DH. I would have gambled on him before Thomas. I guess he likes playing in NY.
Thomas - Tuesday, June 17 2008 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#187349) #
Whatever complaint(s) you have with JP for this, that or the other, at least he knows how to fire a manager. The Randolph debacle in New York was like watching a slow-motion car wreck. Omar Minaya handled the issue incredibly poorly and it's a poor reflection on the entire Mets front office.

Randolph should have been fired weeks ago, if not in the offseason. Don't feel sorry for Randolph, as he's going to get a seven figure salary for playing golf and spending time with his family, but his dismissal could have been handled far better.
Mets Fire Randolph; Mariners can Bavasi | 12 comments | Create New Account
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