I'm sure it was mentioned here somewhere already but it's nice to see Jay Harry get the quick bump up to AA. He's part of that group of 22yrs olds in vancouver who are slightly old for A+ along with Pinto, Parker, and Keys. He probably had the best hitting line of the four of them overall, but Parker and Pinto are right there with him. Keys trailing them a bit.

Harry had a solid first year in A 2yrs ago but really stagnated last year. Hopefully he's back on track to being an interesting depth prospect again.

Then again, this could just be a temporary promotion for a guy who's not seen as a real prospect.

Nimmala's main challenge will be making enough contact to make the rest of his skills play. He's still marginally under 70% (which guys with big power can make work, like Rooker, Teoscar and Judge) but a) that's in high-A at age 19, b) it's the same as what he did last year, despite moving up a level and c) when I checked a week so ago, I think his contact rate was in the low 60s, so it seems to be trending up quickly.

Nimmala is doing good - but not Vlad good (the last teenage sensation for the Jays). Vlad at 19 started in AA and was in AAA by the end. 10.2% K rate in AA, 7.8% in AAA which explains his reaching the majors at 20. Judge at 19 was in Fresno State (NCAA) 42 K's in 215 PA 19.5% K rate (ouch for college). It'll be interesting to see how the Jays handle Nimmala - do you move him to AA this year in June or July to challenge him more with a plan of AAA in 2026 so he can be here for 2027? Can he handle 3B if needed (he seems to have the arm but I could be wrong) or will he stay at SS? If Bo signs long term then 3B will be the only IF slot open in 2027. His bat looks like it'll play anywhere which is sweet.

Interesting comparisons with Guerrero but there is one possible large difference. Guerrero has not shown a dedication to improving his bat skills. He looks to have more natural talent than anyone on Jays teams that I can remember. But he doesn’t appear to me to have the personality that would allow him to excel. If Nimmala shows an unusual aptitude for diligence I’d think he could surpass Guerrero’s hitting achievements.

UO - agreed it's good to see Harry doing well. For context, the promotion at the time was a domino effect of Turconi in AAA going on the IL leaving no one available other than Stefanic to play SS. Rivera was the corresponding move from AA to AAA.

I could see the move sticking though even when Rivera is sent back down, Vancouver has enough infielders.

I always dislike the focus on power numbers with young prospects. Plate discipline, contact rates, and pitch selection are the most important... then looking at hard hit rates, etc... and the actual results.

With Nimmala, I've noticed he tends to hit better later in the game against the relievers as opposed to the starters, who generally speaking, are the better pitchers. So while I'm optimistic about his results so far, we shouldn't be in too much of a rush to promote him.

The front office has hopefully learned from the Orelvis debacle. He looked great in low-A and then was rushed through High-A and into Double-A without checking some very important boxes. They've essentially ruined that asset.

Not long ago, I said that the Blue Jays did not have any prospects without significant questions. I take that back now- Nimmala is precisely on the right track.

Here's why I say that. He's levelled out his swing- his GB and FB rates are even and when he puts the ball in the air, he's more likely to hit a home run than a pop-up. His HR/FB rate this year is a very good 22%, and his K rate is way down. All this has led to a good batting average of .289. Evidently, the club helped him after his slow start to 2024 and he has taken to it. Adjustment at age 18 is a very good sign.

For comparison, when Orelvis was 19, he started in low A ball and hit very well and the club promoted him to A+ ball for the last month or so (as they should have). While there, he started uppercutting with his FB rate reaching almost 60% and almost twice as many pop-ups as home runs. His batting average fell to .218. Nonetheless, the club promoted him to double A to begin the next year- that was a bad error. And he doesn't seem to have been able to make adjustments.

If Nimmala keeps this up for another couple of months, they probably should promote him (unless they feel that there's something he can learn defensively at high A). Not that there's a rush, but merely because he will then have shown a sustained level of very good performance at the current developmental stage.

Excellent points there Mike Green - I feel it might be smart to leave him in A+ as long as possible in that case, with a AA call up late as a 'this is what you need to prep for this winter' thing. Then AA for 2026 with a late AAA promotion if he does well. 2027 is AAA with a ML shot if he does well or ML in '28. That gets him here for age 23, possibly 22. If he dominates then speed it up, but try to go slow otherwise. Vlad had that low K rate, and a 888 OPS in A at 18, 944 in A+ at 18, 1.120 in AA at 19, 978 in AAA at 19, majors at 20 (2.2 bWAR). So look for a 900+ OPS to get promoted mid-season with a low K rate, otherwise near full seasons at each level.

I have some significant questions about the Jays development program but I'm not sure I'm ready to say that the Jays ruined an asset in Martinez. Between the PEDs and the lack of strike zone control (through most but not all of his development timeline), I'm just not sure how much of an asset there ever was there. They might have harmed the development but I'm not certain of that.

Nimmala is hitting at a good level right now but could still stand to improve in pretty much every area of his hitting line .

I'd want to see a little bit more improvement before pushing him up at his age.




A+

* Guerrero (18): 209pa, 17.2b%, 13.4k%, .365babip, .333avg, .161iso 173wrc+
* Bichette (19): 182pa, 7.7b%, 14.3k%, .360babip, .323avg, .140iso, 139wrc+
* Nimmala (19): 83pa, 8.4b%, 21.7k%, .321babip, .289avg, .250iso, 138wrc+
* Orelvis (19): 125pa, 8.0b%, 22.4k%, .197babip, .214avg, .277iso, 105wrc+

A

* Bichette (19): 317pa, 8.8b%, 17.4k%, .452babip, .384avg, .239iso, 195wrc+
* Orelvis (19): 326pa, 10.1b%, 26.1k%, .333babip, .279avg, .293iso, 150wrc+
* Guerrero (18): 318pa, 12.6b%, 10.7k%, .336babip, .316avg, .164iso, 146wrc+
* Nimmala (18): 361pa, 8.3b%, 31.3k%, .301babip, .232avg, .245iso, 122wrc+


At age 19 Vladdy went to smash both AA (198wrc+) and AAA (175wrc+) which only didn't get him an MLB promotion due to gaming contract stuff. Obviously Vladdy was in a different stratosphere of prospect than the other guys here.

Bo ended his 19yr old year in A+, but then was promoted to AA to start the next season even with only 182pa in A+ of very good but not quite great numbers. He then spent all of his 20yr old season in AA with decent performance (116wrc+) but not good enough to urgently promotion. A half a season more in AAA the next year with only middling 104wrc+ but he then hit MLB pitching right away and never went back down.

Despite Orelvis' middling line in A+ there, he was pushed up to AA at 20 to start the next season and struggled a bit (97wrc+). Not disastrous or anything for his age but bad enough that he started the next season in AA again, though did pretty well (122wrc+) and then got promoted to AAA. IMO Orelvis was pushed a bit too fast for my taste - no need to push a prospect that young up levels unless the hitting line is overwhelming, and especially not when it looks like there's some significant holes in the hitting line that need to be addressed.

As much as I want to put Nimmala in the Bichette prospect category i don't think i can at this point. I think he's in the Orelvis category which is probably similar in overall quality as a bichette hitting prospect was, but with much more risk in the profile. (of course i'm pretty sure Nimmala has much, much more defensive upside than Orelvis so the bar is much lower for his bat anyways).


I also see that according to fangraphs Nimmala is very pull-heavy and not a great line-drive producer yet. These are all the kinds of things that tell me that he could use more time to round out his profile a bit.

And Orelvis is far from ruined imo.

This season is the first season ever that he's even been age-appropriate for his level instead of young for it. And he's always been well above average despite being young.

And while he started ice cold this year he's actually on a hot streak right now.


Of course, if he has no defensive value, which it seems might be the case, then the bar for his hitting is pretty high. I think he has a good chance of being a decent MLB hitter still but i don't know if that'll be enough to be a good DH.

I generally don't think pushing people up levels quickly or holding them back a bit ruins them. If Jays would have left Orelvis in A+ two months longer, would anything be different? Highly doubt it. As others mentioned, I don't think he's a washed asset anyway. He won't be a star, but still a few paths for him to be a major leaguer of some sort.

If Jays want to promote Nimmala or hold him back, I'm fine either way. He's a very good prospect but he's very young for his level. I don't find comparing prospects to Vlad particularly useful because Vlad was probably one of the few best hitting prospects ever. You can be an elite prospect and be way worse than Vladdy was.

Moving Orelvis to AA at age 20 after just 27 not-amazing games in high-A was a poor decision that looks even worse in hindsight. But I would defend his promotion from AA to AAA. He started 2023 off poorly again, but then started showing much better plate discipline and went on a tear. It really looked like he didn't have anything more to prove in AA at that point.

updated draft rankings from mlb.com

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/draft/

8.Kyson Witherspoon RHP, Oklahoma

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 60 | Cutter: 60 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55

Witherspoon has swing-and-miss stuff, starting with a mid-90s fastball that peaks at 99 mph and stands out more for its power than its modest life. His mid-80s slider can touch 91 mph while featuring both horizontal action and depth, and he'll turn it into an upper-80s cutter that he uses just as often. He's showing more consistency with his low-80s downer curveball, while his upper-80s changeup is a work in progress that gets too firm but will show interesting fade at times.

Witherspoon uses a compact arm action to generate quality stuff with little effort. His athleticism and mechanics have translated into improved control and command this spring, and better location has made it easier for him to get hitters to chase outside of the strike zone. He has all of the ingredients to become a frontline starter.