Plausible best lineup using this year's stats only:

* 1. RF Springer 93pa, .402obp, 166wrc+, 4.2war/650
* 2. CF Straw 48pa, .370obp, 144wrc+, 6.8war/650
* 3. 1B Guerrero 121pa, .372obp, 125wrc+, 2.7war/650
* 4. SS Bichette 128pa, .328obp, 98wrc+, 1.5war/650
* 5. LF Lukes 44pa, .326obp, 96wrc+, 0.0war/650
* 6. C Kirk 84pa, .274obp, 70wrc+, 3.1war/650
* 7. 2B Gimenez 117pa, .274obp, 71wrc+, 1.1war/650
* 8. DH Santander 119pa, .261obp, 64wrc+, -2.2war/650
* 9. 3B Clement 70pa, .261obp, 52wrc+, 1.9war/650

* B. UT Barger 24pa, .250obp, 69wrc+, 2.7war/650
* B. OF Roden 79pa, .266obp, 59wrc+, 0.8war/650
* B. IF Wagner 68pa, .284obp, 54wrc+, -2.9war/650
* B. C Heineman 30pa, .467obp, 230wrc+, 17.3war/650

* B. UT Schneider 21pa, .333obp, 55wrc+, 0.0war/650
* B. OF Clase 4pa, .000obp, -100wrc+, 0.0war/650



Using Past 1 Calendar Year

* 1. LF Lukes 135pa, .356obp, 120wrc+, 3.4war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 695pa, .406obp, 171wrc+, 6.6war/650
* 3. DH Santander 675pa, .302obp, 121wrc+, 2.5war/650
* 4. RF Springer 592pa, .315obp, 105wrc+, 1.6war/650
* 5. C Kirk 399pa, .318obp, 99wrc+, 5.1war/650
* 6. CF Varsho 419pa, .285obp, 90wrc+, 3.4war/650
* 7. 3B Clement 468pa, .281obp, 87wrc+, 2.8war/650
* 8. 2B Gimenez 638pa, .288obp, 79wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 9. SS Bichette 354pa, .299obp, 83wrc+, 1.1war/650

* B. UT Wagner 154pa, .314obp, 94wrc+, 1.3war/650
* B. OF Straw 52pa, .360obp, 136wrc+, 6.3war/650
* B. IF Jimenez 210pa, .329obp, 102wrc+, 1.5war/650
* B. C Heineman 44pa, .409obp, 168wrc+, 11.8war/650

* X. UT Barger 238pa, .262obp, 78wrc+, 0.3war/650
* X. OF Loperfido 262pa, .264obp, 74wrc+, 0.2war/650
* X. IF Schneider 412pa, .277obp, 72wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. X Bethancourt 116pa, .289obp, 106wrc+, 4.5war/650

* X. OF Clase 45pa, .311obp, 94wrc+, 1.4war/650
* X. OF Roden 79pa, .266obp, 59wrc+, 0.8war/650



Using Fangraphs DepthChart projections:

* 1. SS Bichette 521pa, .326obp, 118wrc+, 3.9war/650
* 2. 3B Wagner 365pa, .344obp, 114wrc+, 2.7war/650
* 3. 1B Guerrero 556pa, .370obp, 148wrc+, 4.2war/650
* 4. DH Santander 562pa, .313obp, 122wrc+, 2.5war/650
* 5. RF Springer 498pa, .326obp, 114wrc+, 2.5war/650
* 6. LF Roden 313pa, .333obp, 110wrc+, 2.3war/650
* 7. C Kirk 355pa, .340obp, 115wrc+, 6.0war/650
* 8. CF Varsho 510pa, .302obp, 108wrc+, 2.8war/650
* 9. 2B Gimenez 527pa, .319obp, 106wrc+, 4.3war/650

* B. UT Barger 93pa, .311obp, 108wrc+, 2.8war/650
* B. OF Lukes 75pa, .333obp, 111wrc+, 2.6war/650
* B. IF Clement 261pa, .299obp, 98wrc+, 3.0war/650
* B. C Heineman 116pa, .315obp, 91wrc+, 3.9war/650

* X. UT Schneider 81pa, .320obp, 109wrc+, 2.4war/650
* X. OF Straw 60pa, .303obp, 81wrc+, 1.9war/650
* X. IF Jimenez 23pa, .332obp, 111wrc+, 2.8war/650
* X. C Bethancourt 64pa, .277obp, 94wrc+, 3.0war/650

* X. UT Martinez 87pa, .277obp, 90wrc+, 1.5war/650
* X. OF Clase 46pa, .297obp, 93wrc+, 1.4war/650
* X. OF Loperfido 29pa, .288obp, 91wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Berroa 12pa, .295obp, 85wrc+, 0.0war/650

Casey Lawrence is, I believe, the oldest Jays signee still active - we signed him as a non-drafted free agent in 2010 when the draft was 40 rounds. We drafted Pillar the next year in the 32nd round. There's a very good chance that under the current draft system and contracted minor leagues neither would have got into professional baseball at all.

Good catch GabrielSyme. Lawrence signed June 15th, 2010 (draft was 7th-9th). The infamous draft where they took Deck McGuire over Yasmani Grandal and Chris Sale (the next 2 picks), Christian Yelich was also a 1st rounder after McGuire (2 HOF'ers picked before him were Bryce Harper & Manny Machado, so the Jays had no shot at them). The Jays best pick that year was Kris Bryant but he didn't sign (18th round), then Noah Syndergaard (38th overall), drafted but didn't sign Chad Green (37th round), while Aaron Sanchez was the 'so much talent, why did he fail so often' (1 5 WAR season & ERA title at 23, but no other year over 2 WAR, 0 WAR after that year in total, out of majors before his age 30 season - this would be his age 33 season if still playing). Adeiny Hechavarria was the only IFA signed that made the majors (played in Mexico last year, 2020 final ML season).

2009 had Yan Gomes (played last year 18 OPS+, done now), James Paxton (DNS - played for Boston & LAD last year). Before that we get into very weak drafts and I doubt any were active in 2024. 2008 though had IFA Carlos Perez signed who is in AAA with the Cubs (11 games 42 PA at 1B despite being a catcher). 2006 had Henderson Alvarez (played in Mexico the last 2 years but just 21 2/3 IP last year so might be done). Balbino Fuenmayor never made the majors but was still playing in Mexico last year too with a 941 OPS (!).

That was fun, trying to find the furthest back an active player is for the Jays. Surprised to find some guys from 2006 were still active last year.

Game over. Mostly joking.

Francis gave up a homer? I'm shocked, shocked I tell you.

I had in mind guys who were active in MLB, but interesting stuff. I knew Carlos Perez was off to a good start for the Cubs AAA affiliate. I suppose given that the Cubs are giving him playing time at 1B that they have good catching depth, so he'll either have to have a hot streak or see a rash of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart - or both - to get back to the majors.

Clement .219/.261/.266

Bregman .325/.398/.573

Pretty sure someone in the offseason was using WAR/650 to argue that we didn’t really need Bregman.

That’s two off-seasons in a row where the Blue Jays had to settle for the value third base option because the better one didn’t want to sign in Toronto (Chapman two off-seasons ago; Bregman last off-season).

Red Sox are definitely have Bowden’s pitches.

Francis is pumpkining nicely

If the Jays are deadline sellers again (which they should be), then I really don't know how Shapiro and Atkins survive. Shapiro said all the right things when he was hired, and then proceeded to build a team in the exact opposite way. It's a top 5 payroll for a bad MLB team and a bad farm system. If attendance also sinks, which is likely will, then there isn't enough lipstick to put on this pig.

I guess the first domino is going to be firing John Schneider. That's their only lifeline at this point.

I mentioned this a few days ago but I think 1B/DH Ben Rice might outhit and out-WAR Vladdy this year, for a minuscule fraction of the contractual obligation. So far today he's 3/3 with two home runs.

Rice .284/.394/.625 (wRC+ 192)

Vladdy .276/.374/.419 (wRC+ 133)

I'm not sure what point you're trying to arrive at by comparing Vlad against Rice. If you want to be fair then you should compare Vlad in his rookie campaign with his numbers and salary then against Ben Rice now. Otherwise you're simply picking extremes to make some sort of point about Vlad's performance value.

"Obligatory hot hitter X" with small sample size and good minor league numbers may outhit "obligatory Blue Jays player" who is making more and performing worse currently. You always make these comments when it's an opportune time to and then never bring the comparison up again when the tables turn. I remember your multiple posts about Dwight Smith Jr and many others "that got away," until they didn't. Now we're taking hot hitters from other teams to point out that what, the Jays could have done better if they had Ben Rice instead of Vlad Guerrero Jr?

"Ben Rice may outperform and out-WAR Max Fried, Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger and most of the other players on the Yankees "for a minuscule fraction of the contractual obligation"

Same thing applies to Ben Rice and Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, etc etc...

WAR is not everything and one month is not everything. Maybe you're right and Ben Rice is amazing value. If that's the case it won't be long before he is signed long term to a big deal to make him less valuable if you only look at WAR and $$$ of pay to evaluate value.

I highlighted Rice’s remarkable season because he’s the same age as Vladdy and a slugger who is hitting near the top of the Yankees order.

He’s early in his MLB career and the Yankees will control him throughout his prime years (into his early 30s) before he becomes eligible for free agency. They can maximize his value without having to give him a big extension or FA contract.

Focusing on WAR largely misses the point. By *any* measure of value, he’s well ahead of Vladdy this year. Rather, he’s just a really good hitter. wRC+ is another stat that reflects this. Rice’s minor-league performance across four seasons further suggests that this isn’t a fluke.

The larger point is that, as Blue Jays fans, we may have forgotten what it’s like to have a farm system that occasionally produces high-value players like Rice in addition to touted prospects like Judge/Guerrero Jr. Having players like that helps greatly with contention because you obtain huge value at low cost at at least one position, which makes it much easier to allocate resources effectively and build a competitive roster.

Also, as a baseball fan, sometimes I just find it interesting to see a big talent unexpectedly emerge on the scene and impress. And to consider how the Yankees are able to field a competitive team most seasons, not just a couple of seasons out of every decade or two.

Another comparison when pointing out the emergence of Ben Rice is when was the last time a young position player came out of the Jay's farm system and starred, or even performed at league average, since Guerrero debuted ?

The high ceiling, low floor approach the front office took this off-season really does require a young hitter or two to emerge.

Barger has played 3B six times in Buffalo this year, with 2 each and left, right, SS. I imagine he will get some starts at 3B. Clement can come in late for the D.

I love Casey Lawrence. That guy is journeyman personified. I hope we hire him for a coaching position when he finally hangs them up.

Another comparison when pointing out the emergence of Ben Rice is when was the last time a young position player came out of the Jay's farm system and starred, or even performed at league average, since Guerrero debuted ?

Given that Rice's emergence currently consists of 26 games, the obvious answer is "Davis Schneider".

Respectfully, I don't think that Davis Schneider is an apt comparison for Ben Rice.

Schneider started out hot in the majors in 2023 (partly due to a high BABIP) and early 2024. Then the league adjusted and he hasn't hit since. He's now a 26-year-old who hasn't hit since May 2024. He has a career .829 OPS in the minors with 59 HR in 1667 PA.

Rice started out slow in the majors in 2024 (partly due to a .186 BABIP). He then adjusted and has been raking in 2025. He has a .935 OPS in the minors, over 100 points higher than Schneider's minor-league OPS, with 56 HR in 1013 PA, and a much stronger BB:K ratio than Schneider in the minors (his K rate was about 19% to Schneider's 25%).

I'm not sure Rice is a sure thing, but he's looking pretty good at the moment. wOBA of .428 and xwOBA of .425 this year. BB and K rates and BABIP all look excellent.

greenfrog you're being disingenuous by using such an exaggerated example to prove a very small point that may possibly end up being true, maybe if everything falls a certain way. It's not very likely and similar to if I say "if x and y and z all happen then it means ____." It's an argument based on a long reach. It's 26 games for Rice. Unreliable. It's minor league numbers. Unreliable. It's Vlad at his peak earning power vs Rice in his rookie campaign. You go so far to the extreme to when you could easily have just said that the NYY found a very good young hitter who's future looks promising. That's it. No need to suggest why he's going to be better than Vlad due to better value as a reason to remember what it was like to bring along home grown talent. 26 games!

When you get a young controllable player on the cheap who is sitting right behind the best player in baseball (Aaron Judge and Ohtani) in production...that is not something to expect your team to replicate. It's the exception.

I don't see anything from Rice's profile to suggest he is any different from any other rookie who ended up struggling or flattening out. Jered Kelenic just got demoted again. Alehandro Kirk was the biggest home grown success story in 2022. Gabriel Moreno same thing. Who's bragging about them now? It's your job to show us what is so special about Rice to warrant comparisons to Vlad. 26 games and a minor league track record at his age won't convince me. If he keeps his pace by the end of the year then come back here and tell us you were right. That stat line, by the way would look something like:

BEN RICE 2025 projection based on his current pace:

150 HITS
48 HR
.278 AVG
132 RUNS
78 RBI
12 SB
.998 OPS
181 OPS+

JUAN SOTO 2024 NYY stats

166 HITS
41 HR
.288 AVG
128 RUNS
109 RBI
7 SB
.989 OPS
178 OPS+

AARON JUDGE 2024 NYY MVP stats

180 HITS
58 HR
.322 AVG
122 RUNS
144 RBI
10 SB
1.159 OPS
223 OPS+


Sure maybe he's a top 5 MLB player for years to come making 782K. Maybe. Let us all remember what it was like to have players like that before.

dalimon, you have this thing where you often make it unnecessarily personal and unpleasant when you disagree with others about something on the site. Something is always offensive for you — people’s arguments, their tone, insufficient optimism, too many references to Keith Law, etc. I know I’m not the only one who has been attacked in this way.

There was nothing disingenuous about my posts about Rice.

It’s not “my job” to show you anything.

Shi Davidi says Eric Lauer is on his way to Toronto.

You're right it's not your job to show me anything. My comment was in the context of "show me a strong argument to convince me," not "it's your day job to prove things to me."

You're wrong about it being an attack and it's unfortunate you feel attacked because I challenge the merits of your arguments posted here for us to read. If you feel my responses are so unpleasant I will try to make them nicer for you.

I can't read your tone and you don't have any references to Keith Law in your post so it's hard for me to consider myself some type of bully who personally attacks others due to their tone or lack of optimism. You're combining opinions and your feelings to paint me as a bully. Unpleasant perhaps but maybe you just don't like someone calling out some of your eye rolling takes (no offense intended).

I think you're a smart baseball person and therefore considered your post about Rice and his apparent better value over Vlad after 26 games as disingenuous because... how could you not be aware of the overwhelming data not supporting such a small sample size argument??

Casey Lawrence DFA. He has been DFA'd three or four times already this season

I like Ben Rice. Looks like he'll be a good player. Not sure why we're talking about him on a Jays board though. Lots of players look good. (and not enough Jays). Hopefully, Jays give Barger serious run at 3B and Roden run at LF. I'd much rather lose with going for upside and trying to build a future team over losing making sure Clement and Lukes get abs. Bo Habs just become this really weird and not very good player. He can still get hits but no power and no patience. Not sure what happened. Over last two years, he's had 468 PAs, has an 80 WRC+ and 4 HR's. Leo Jimenez has a 102 WRC+ and 4 HR's in 210 PAs.

Casey Lawrence DFA.

Watch him get claimed by the Mariners. Til the next time, Casey!

Trevor Richards, Nate Pearson and Reece McGuire are all playing for the Iowa Cubs against the Buffalo Bisons today. Richards has a 7.27 ERA, Pearson's ERA is 10.80. McGuire is hitting .333.

McGuire's hitting .333? Why, that's even better than what Rice did in the minors!

And just like that Barger playing RF with Clement at 3B. If they aren't going to play Roden regularly they need to send him down. Bizzare asset management.

I wouldn't worry about Roden - he has 79 PA which is 7th on the team despite a 57 OPS+, just above him in PA is Kirk (62 OPS+), just below is Clement (54 OPS+). Wagner had 68 PA with a 48 OPS+. This team has a LOT of offensive issues. Barger's 70 is Bondian vs those other guys.

OPS+ Leaders Jays: Heinemann (219), Springer (155 and dropping), Vlad (125), Straw (124 and dropping), Bo (98), Luke (91), Barger (70), Gimenez & Kirk (62), Santander (59). That is scary. This team has an overall OPS+ of 87 and Roden is only 11th on the team in OPS+. While I agree he needs to go to AAA, it isn't due to playing time but due to performance imo. But who to call up? Clase is at 899 OPS, Tirotta 939, Ali Sanchez (backup C) 861, Stefanic 832 (utility guy who probably should be here). The rest are 733 or lower.

Really, the team needs to make a trade for more offense but who has anything that'd help who is willing to take something the Jays have? The Rockies (4 wins) have Jordan Beck (24, 2nd year in majors, 182 OPS+, decent minor league record for hitting), and 25 year old Hunter Goodman 127 OPS+ at C/DH - again with very little ML experience and a solid minor league track record. If the Rockies are dumb enough to trade either I'd say take them (their team record suggests they aren't run by the best of the best). It'll be hard to find a decent player that a team is willing to part with at a reasonable price.

Fairly surprised a 28 y/o Nate Pearson still has a minor league option left according to Fangraphs.

I suppose being perpetually hurt burns service time but preserves those options if it's long enough.

The Pearson trade last year still seems odd other than from a cutting bait/change of scenery perspective (particularly at a trade deadline where they picked up no pitching prospects other than Jake Bloss, and were running out the likes of Tommy Nance, Yerry Rodriguez, Jose Cuas, etc to close out the year with a depleted pen).

It suggests that the front office and the coaching staff might not have been as high on Pearson by 2024 than his pedigree would suggest.

From mlbtraderumors today:

"Yesterday, Yankees slugger Ben Rice enjoyed a three-hit game that saw him slug two homers. It was a great game, but that’s become almost commonplace for the 26-year-old through the season’s first month. After making his big league debut at first base while filling in for Anthony Rizzo last summer, Rice entered Spring Training this year in the mix for a bench spot as a pinch-hitter and backup catcher behind Austin Wells. An injury to Giancarlo Stanton created an opportunity for regular playing time, however, and Rice was chosen to take those regular reps.

He’s certainly making the most of the opportunity, having done nothing but rake since the season began. In 106 plate appearances this year, Rice has slashed an incredible .278/.387/.611 (184 wRC+). Rice has clobbered eight homers already, leaving him tied for the ninth-most long balls in the majors and just two behind Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh for the major league lead. Sandwiched between those two and Rice with nine homers is Aaron Judge, for whom Rice’s emergence has created the sort of protection in the lineup that Juan Soto offered him last season. If comparing the 26-year-old’s early season production to Soto’s 2024 campaign sounds hyperbolic, it isn’t; Rice’s aforementioned 184 wRC+ currently makes him the fourth-best qualified hitter in baseball and second only to Judge in the AL. Soto’s 180 wRC+ last year made him the third-best qualified hitter in baseball and second only to Judge in the AL.

The question for Rice, however, is how sustainable this hot start will prove to be. The Yankees would surely love for Rice to emerge as star-level bat both for this season and the long-term, when he could take over for Paul Goldschmidt as the club’s regular first baseman. This isn’t the first time Rice has come out of the gates with a hot start, however, as his cup of coffee last year started with a 24-game, 92-PA stretch where he hit an impressive .228/.315/.494 with six homers. That start proved to be unsustainable for him, as he hit a paltry .110/.209/.192 the rest of the way to finish as a well below-average hitter overall across his 50 games in the majors.

In that 24-game stretch of success last year, Rice struck out at a 22.8% clip, walked 12.0% of the time, and posted an incredible 20.0% barrel rate. Those are all solid peripherals, though his 38.3% hard-hit rate was somewhat concerning and helped to explain his lackluster .222 BABIP. That’s especially true when combined with his 50% fly ball rate over that stretch; while elevating the ball often helps with homers, leading to the aforementioned massive barrel rate, softly-hit fly balls are the worst type of contact a hitter can make. That weak contact in the air led to very few balls dropping in for hits, and once the home runs stopped coming his overall production cratered.

How does Rice’s start to 2025 measure up to last year’s hot start? The signs are mixed in that regard. His strikeout rate (24.5%) has actually gotten worse, and his walk rate (12.3%) is mostly stagnant. The real story here can be found in his batted ball data. Rice’s 21.9% barrel rate is phenomenal, but not a massive change from the 20.0% figure he put up during last year’s hot streak. However, Rice is making loud contact much more consistently so far this year. His hard-hit rate has jumped up to a phenomenal 62.5%, good for second in all of baseball this year behind Oneil Cruz’s 62.7% and slightly ahead of Shohei Ohtani’s 62.3%.

Hitting the ball hard that consistently is obviously a good thing, but the hard contact has come at the cost of Rice elevating the ball much less than he was last year. His 15.6% line drive rate is down five points from last year and his 35.9% fly ball rate is down eight points; consequently, that’s led to a 13-point spike in his ground ball rate, which now sits at 48.4%. That huge grounder rate may seem like it would limit Rice’s power, and that’s true to a least some extent. Even so, plenty of hitters have emerged as legitimate power threats over the years despite hitting the ball on the ground a lot as long as they hit the ball hard enough to send it out when they do elevate. Gunnar Henderson, Ketel Marte, and Teoscar Hernandez are among the players who posted big seasons last year despite ground ball rates in a similar range as Rice. What’s more, advanced metrics generally seem to buy that Rice has earned his production so far. His .428 wOBA this year is virtually identical to his .425 xwOBA."

Thankfully the NBA playoffs have been the bomb so far this year. At present, this Jays team is unwatchable.

This team is very easy to not watch. The decision to go for it this year instead of resetting for a year or two was so dumb at the time and looks even dumber right now. Fifth highest salary in baseball and horrible lineup with 3/5 of a rotation. The sooner Atkins is shown the door and the team can rebuild the better.

How long before there's a team meeting or a Player's only meeting? This last week or so has been BRUTAL.

Did the rest of MLB hack the Jays analytics department in the ‘22 offseason? Are they feeding them faulty numbers and scouting reports to give the players? Been watching Jays baseball a long time, I can’t wrap my head around why or how this team’s offensive woes have festered so long. So consistently they seem just completely backwards at the plate.

At a certain point these aren’t offensive woes and are just lack of offensive talent. As I said the other day, how many league average or better bats are on this team? 2? 3?

Here's the thing about being a 26-year-old 1/$780k baseball player versus a 26-year-old 14/$500m one. If the $780k player posts 3 WAR across a full season, he's a significant bargain and a real asset to the team because of the money he frees up for the team to allocate elsewhere.

If the $500m player posts 3 WAR across a full season, he'll inevitably fall far short of expectations -- because the benchmark for players like that include Ohtani and Judge and Soto -- and he'll be a year closer to his decline years, when it will be even harder for him to earn his annual salary.

In other words, even if Rice comes back to earth a bit, he can still be an asset to the team as a strong LH DH in the coming years. Whereas Vladdy needs to be something like a 150+ wRC+ player to justify his huge contract.

Yes, hitting coaches and the manager can only do so much. There just isn't very much offensive talent on the team right now and certainly not enough to compete.

But even someone like Varsho had two good offensive seasons in '22 and '23 on Arizona in his age 23-24. Comes to the Jays, he's been =awful at the plate.

Kirk has cratered. That's the one that bothers me/flummoxes me the most. Halfway through '22 he's OPS near .900, and since probably hasn't had a two week stretch where he's hit that well. Baffling, really.

Whoa 2 HRs in a game

The two big money position player adds this year:

* Gimenez 63wrc+
* Santander 57wrc+

Kirk had a baby a year or two ago and may have gone through a prolonged period of sleep deprivation as a result (as Mike Green pointed out at the time). Plus, being a catcher and learning to catch at an elite level may have sapped some of his hitting energy and focus. He might also not be quite athletic enough to be an elite hitter at the MLB level in today's game of dominating, high-velocity, big-stuff pitchers.

Also the young depth guys who supposedly had decent projections for 2025 aren't hitting at all. Here are their wRC+ stats this year:

Roden 58
Clement 63
Wagner 53
Barger 48

I mean, yuck.

A good supposition, greenfrog. I also remember MG's point about sleep deprivation.

Jays need a Cito Gaston type who picks up on pitcher tendencies and pitcher tips. Seemed to work for Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.

And John Buck while we're at it.

the new guy finally did a thing.

Vladdy is at 125 wRC+ at the moment, which would be fine for a different type of player with more defensive value, but is inadequate for him (would maybe make him a 2.5-3 WAR player over the course of a full season).

yeah but 125 for a month is nothing out of the ordinary at all even for an elite hitter.

Vladdy is a career 137 wRC+ hitter. Will he exceed that over the next five years? Maybe. I don’t really see him as suddenly a perennial 160+ wRC+ player, but maybe I’m being too conservative in my assessment of him.

well vladdy is just his normal ISO power away from being a 150wrc+ right now I doubt the power's all gone all of a sudden.

make him pay for that insult Alejandro.

ALEJANDRO!!!

they actually entertained us for an evening!

Huge win. Love to see the passion too.

Let's hope this comebacker helps morale better than a meeting would. It is the kinda game that can change momentum. The Jays NEED that.

A little offence makes things much more fun. I think Abraham Lincoln said that.

That was a fun end to the game. Vlad did his usual insane baserunning, but it paid off as that led to the 2 intentional walks setting up Kirk's heroics. Hoffman continues to show that Baltimore made a massive error not signing him.

greenfrog I don think you will find very many people here that suggest or believe Vlad will be worth his contract. From a purely budget to on field value it won't be anything except an overpay and eventually albatross. I also feel the same way about Aaron Judge's contract. This is one debate we've all hashed out and I think most are in agreement it was either an overpay or a necessary overpay.

Ben Rice is another thing altogether. I see it as two separate things and messy when combining these two cases together. In 2021 Vlad put up a 6.3 WAR season for less than 700K. That's a fair comparison to what Ben Rice is doing now more so than using Vlad's 2025 contract, but only if Rice can maintain this all season long.

Why are we still talking about Ben Rice? Pre-arbitration players are always going to give you more bang for the buck which is why player development is so important but it has nothing to do with Vladdy. Wyatt Langford is going to give way more war/$ than Soto so does that mean Mets shouldn't have signed him? You'd never sign anyone if toy compared them to pre-arbitration values. Vladdy is a great hitter and I don't think him or his contract is close to being one of the Jays biggest issues. If it is an issue it will likely become one in like 7 years. Enjoy Vladdy until then.

Good points Glevin

I don’t think Rice 2025 and Vladdy 2021 are comparable. Vladdy was always expected to be the Blue Jays savior. He’s a big bonus IFA signee who signed at 16 and the son of a Hall of Fame player. The expectations have always been sky-high for him, just like they have been for the Yankees’ Aaron Judge since he posted 8.7 fWAR (!) in his first full season in the majors.

Rice is different. He’s a 12th-round pick who signed for $125k out of Dartmouth. He toiled through the minors and made it to the majors on the strength of four years of strong minor-league performance. In short: Rice is found money. He’s a product of good scouting and development behind the scenes (and maybe some luck).

He’s interesting to me because, while so much of our time and energy over the last couple of years has been focused on “will Vladdy sign an extension?” (like an episode of The Bachelor), Rice, a 1B/DH who is the same age as Vladdy, snuck on to the scene and — to this point in 2025 at least — posted a significantly better season than him for next to no money. He’s an important reason why the Yankees are in first place at the moment, 3.5 games ahead of Toronto.

I like that baseball continually surprises us like this. As the saying goes, “life happens to you while you’re busy making other plans.” Will his strong performance hold up over time? Who knows. We’ll see.

Yankees cheat so hard tho.

It’s comforting to have a ready-made excuse for not being a relevant postseason contender.

So hard tho.

I guess if you're point is only that found money is a good thing then sure, but again no comparisons needed to say that imho. Also if baseball teams could rely on guys jumping from out of nowhere then great, start doing that. Reality is it's found money like you said and unexpected. Take your own example. Had the Yankees had any faith in Ben Rice they likely wouldn't have gone out and signed Paul Goldschmidt and traded for Cody Bellinger, right?

And couldn't you also argue that Bowden Francis was found money for the Jays? Bill Wagner in his hot stretch last year and Brendon Little now? My counterpoint to your arguments about Ben Rice is that you keep comparing Ben Rice to Vlad (based on salary) and saying he's having a better season so far and it's a big reason why the Yankees are ahead in the standings. That's a massive jump and based on a far hypothetical of 5 more months of great performance from Rice and slow performance from Vlad. It is simply unlikely to happen. I definitely don't agree with that. Aaron Judge is the reason why the NYY are in first place not Ben Rice. Trent Grisham has been every bit as important as Ben Rice through 26 games.

You're generally pointing out Ben Rice has been unexpectedly good in 26 games. No debate. But then you keep using that general observation and then comparing his performance and salary as a rookie in pre-arb to Vlad at the end of his control years. Doesn't make sense or match in proving that one is better value than the other as a fair comparison through a full season. No offense but your insistence to conclude that this difference between Vlad and Rice is one of the main reasons the NYY are ahead of the Blue Jays in the standings is baffling. It's this second argument that you add to the "Ben Rice has been a nice surprise," observation that doesn't make any sense to me, respectfully. Schedule strength, Jays collectively not hitting and Aaron Judge (19 WAR pace) are far bigger reasons.

Give me entertaining games for the rest of the season and I'll be happy. I'm not expecting a contender with 3 older SP's, a regressing Francis, and no 5th starter, but it's an entertainment product too, so home runs and comebacks are nice.

I still think this team will be top 2 in division by end of year. Manoah stated earlier this year he could be back as early as May or June. I expect the FO to trade for a big offense and bullpen addition some time in July if not sooner.

Gimenez is now hitting .165/.258/.284, and he's making Clement look like a cromulent regular (he isn't one). Perhaps people would notice if Gimenez he hadn't hit 3 early HRs / the Leafs weren't blowing a 3-0 lead.

As I said the other day, how many league average or better bats are on this team? 2? 3?

I don't take projections too seriously, but ZIPS predicted Guerrero, Santander, Gimenez, Kirk, Bichette, Varsho, Wagner, Schneider, Roden, and Barger to all be average-or-better.

More subjectively, I think anyone would have described Guerrero, Santander and Bichette as above-average coming into the season, then you could debate a few other guys.

Giminez went 12-for-91 in the month of April; 10 singles + 2 doubles. He's one of the worst hitters in the league against LH pitching... yet there's no backup for him on the team. We have one of the strangest rosters in recent memory -- four infielders, with two who should be platooning... and six outfielders with four more ready to go in AAA. Alan Roden no longer has a role - I wouldn't be surprised to see him swapped with Davis Schneider to provide some more flexibility... or perhaps they look outside the organization for another veteran infielder.

Not having more guys who can hit lefties is weird. This is a division with Fried, Rodon, Crochet etc... The team went into the season with no specialized VS L hitters. There are three guys who were playing mostly against LHP: Straw, Schneider, and Clement. Straw is a RH, but a defensive/speed player, Schneider is a RH but has no splits and doesn't look like a major leaguer right now. Clement has no career splits either. None of those guys is much of a hitter to begin with. I'm fine not getting a backup to Giminez particularly because I think Jimenez is pretty good and he unfortunately got hurt and Clement can play 2B if needed in mean time, but lack of VS LHP bats overall is not ideal. Swapping Lukes out for a LF/DH who can hit lefties well would be very helpful.

Gimenez' .185 BABIP is fifth-worst in the majors, so there's quite a bit of room for bouncing back to his career numbers. (which would still likely make him the #9 hitter)

At this point I think the Jays should be using Jimenez (when healthy) and Martinez in platoon roles at the big league level. You'll have people complaining that they should be playing everyday to develop, but I just don't think either one has the upside to be worth caring about that. Both of those players have significant platoon splits. It makes sense to use them in that way until more playing time opens up.

vs RHP (positional order, not lineup)
CA Kirk/Heineman
1B Vlad
2B Gimenez
SS Bo
3B Barger
RF Springer
CF Varsho
LF Roden
DH Santander

vs LHP
CA Kirk/Heineman
1B Vlad
2B Jimenez
SS Bo
3B Clement
RF Springer
CF Varsho
LF Santander
DH Martinez

This team under Shapiro/Atkins have never utilized platoons effectively so I wouldn't expect them to do something like this, but it's probably the most logical way to make use of available resources.

Orelvis has been awful in AAA but yes, they should add him to the roster after the first signs of life in his bat.

Or just find a 1B/3B that can hit a bit.

I think the list of "highly likely" to be wRC+ 100 hitters stops at 2 - Vladdy and Santander. There are arguments for several others of course but they are all "maybe's". As for Bichette, its easy to forget but his hitting actually cratered in July 2023. He's now closing in on two full seasons of sub 100 wRC+ (he hit 82 wRC+ in the last two plus months of 2023). Many of the projection systems take the previous three years into account in some form of weighting - one unusual year of excellent production is significantly impacting the projections of all of Kirk, Gimenez and Varsho. As for Gimenez, he is going to hit better (how can he not), but there do appear to be gaping holes in his swing that are easily exploitable.

So Schneider has a better hitting line than Barger in both MLB and AAA this year. Just like in every other year.

Wagner, too.

If we look at xwOBA, there's a lot of confirmation: Clement, Wagner, Roden and of course Schneider have all been outright bad; Springer has been good, Heinemann and Straw have been lucky but decent; Kirk has been poor but not terrible.

But there are some big differentials: Bo, Vlad and Gimenez have all underperformed their xwOBAs by 60-69 pts. If they were equalling their expected numbers, Vladdy would be at about a 165 wRC+, Bo at about 150, and Gimenez at about a 105. I submit a lot of the underperformance at the top of the lineup has been mainly bad luck.

As a team, the Jays are underperforming their xwOBA by 27 points, which is third-worst in the majors.

I will also put in another good word for Barger, who has been showing good plate discipline, significantly less swing-and-miss and great exit velocities. His xwOBA suggests he's been absolutely snakebit (.338 vs actual .225), but I think even that understates things: you'd also expect him to start drawing a few more walks and launching some balls into the stands with how his skills are looking right now.

1 month in:

* Off: 91wrc+ (#24), -1.7bsr (#25), 3.47r/gm (#25)
* Def: +3.4def (#3)
* SP: 5.13ip/gm (#19), 119era- (#26), 124fip- (#28), 102xfip- (#20), -0.21wpa (#20), +0.49clch (#12)
* RP: 3.84ip/gm (#7), 100era- (#19), 88fip- (#12), 89xfip- (#9), +1.91wpa (#8), +1.35clch (#6)


Offense awful, starting pitching awful.

But great defense and a good bullpen (bullpen has actually been very good in the main guys, with the depth options really tanking the numbers).

In Bichette's last 140 games played dating back to 2023, he has a batting line of .247/.292/.349, 81 wRC+, and 7 home runs in 603 plate appearances (.101 ISO). I think he can top a 100 wRC+ this season, but the power erosion might be legitimate. Maybe a product of his injuries. Now that Vlad is locked up for way too long, I hope the Jays don't double down and overpay Bichette. At least you can envision Vlad having a couple of 160 wRC+ seasons in the next 14 years, but we may have already seen the best of Bichette as an offensive player.

Barger should be playing everyday against RHP for a few months. Given the team's weakness on offense is something he does well (hit the ball hard, bat speed, power potential), he should get some rope to see if there is a path to a good strong side platoon career for him.

Barger was terrible against lefties last year, but he actually doesn't have significant splits in the minors. Perfectly fine to have him platoon right now, but his upside is absolutely as an everyday player.

Tbh I don't think Barger has ever dominated enough at AAA to think handing him a regular mlb spot right now is good for him or for the team.

tbh i think barger is the only young dude who passes the eye test and they should just roll with him, absent a proven commodity

If the eye test is "looks athletic" maybe.

"starting pitching awful" - I wish it was better understood just how little value the Jays have gotten for their money spent on the veteran starters since the beginning of last year. I get that just how mediocre to outright bad they have been is partially hidden by the team's elite defence but there seems to be almost no heat applied to the veteran starters to pull on the oar a bit more.

The real test will come next season when Bassitt is gone and the "wave" of young pitchers join the show. If they all do well then it will help this FO. If they don't then there's almost nothing for them to hang their hat on in terms of player development. I'm thinking of:

Alek Manoah
Trey Yeasavage
Ricky Tiedeman
Jake Bloss
Landen Maroudis
Kendry Rojas
Brandon Barriera
Adam Macko

*Maroudis and Barriera shouldn't be on that list (ETA likely 2027)

Are we talking about Barger's 2024 or his performance this year? If it's this year, I don't know how he's not passing the eye test with flying colours - he's hitting the ball hard all over the place, he's making great swing decisions, and he's the second coming of Jesse Barfield in right. It's very much a small sample, but right now the eye test looks amazing, even if the batting line is aenemic.

We can have a discussion about whether he'll continue to look this good at the plate - and yes, he was only decent in Buffalo before getting the call - but right now he looks extermely impressive and that is matched by the underlying numbers.

Yeah, there is too much swing-and-miss from the left side.

Comeback kids.

boom.

p.s. Lukes should be getting the playing time over Roden and Barger tbh.

Rebook the parade?

Absolutely electric. Best at bat I've seen from Vlad since his iconic HR off Gerrit Cole. First legit clutch moment I've seen him have.

This is kind of funny b/c (I know I know it was an exhibition game) but Vlad's intro to most Jays fans was hitting a walk off bomb in Montreal.

Good starting pitching + three-run HR = Earl Weaver-style win

Great series win against the Red Sox. I thought the Sox were going to walk Vlad intentionally in the 8th to set up a double play chance. Glad they didn’t.

There's room for both Barger and Lukes to play everyday vs. RHP. Barger made a terrific play at 3B (SS).

The Jays are now up 5-2 in the season series vs. the Red Sox. If they win one game in each of the next two series, they will have the tiebreaker.

So after that horrid slump where they scored an average of just over 2 runs a game and went 1-8 they now are 1 game under 500 and 1 1/2 out of the wild card, 3 back of the division lead. If the killer V's can keep going (Varsho, Vlad) who knows what might happen?

I realize it won't last for too long, but Daulton Varsho on a hot streak can look like one of the best players in the league.

My only time at Stade Olympique was a U2 show in '92. The sound was...not good.

The Big O, how I don't miss you. And to think, that it only cost the smokers of Quebec a paltry $2-2.5B. They don't make them like that anymore (thankfully).

My only time at Stade Olympique was a U2 show in '92.

I spent a great amount of time there in the summers of '80, '81 and '82. It was a fun team to watch with a passionate fanbase, though a continual heart-breaker. Even then, still fairly fresh after the '76 Olympics, it was clear that the Big Owe was a disaster. Later in the '80s, I would later get to experience the long promised, oft delayed roof which we referred to as an orange condom.

We were concerned how embarrassing the park might look on the big stage during the 1982 all-star game. I recall lots and lots of decorative bunting. Lipstick on a pig.