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An eventful afternoon in Major League Baseball (although... not really?) as a sort of blockbuster trade gets done. I have to say, it really wasn't that exciting on the whole. Anyway, with the Jays needing a minor miracle at this point, let's turn our attention to those wheelings and dealings in major league baseball.


A brief rundown of the bigger transactions. I'll leave it to others to mention run differentials and get all mathematical etc. etc.

To Los Angeles:
Manny Ramirez, $7 Million

To Boston:
Jason Bay

To Pittsburgh:
Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen, Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris

The Verdict:
This one is somewhat hard to declare a 'winner' from, as all the teams get something. The Dodgers got one of the better hitters in the game in exchange for a third baseman they seemingly never intended to play. LaRoche has put up an OBP of over .400 in the minors between AA and AAA the last two years with decent power, and by all accounts he profiles as an above average third baseman as soon as right now, though there are concerns about his defense. Bryan Morris is high on upside, but is coming back from TJ surgery and is still a ways away from the Majors - Keith Law describes him as a possible dominant reliever.

This haul looks pretty good for the Pirates. For reference, let's look at the Teixeira deal from a year ago (which included Ron Mahay as well). For a premium player with a year and a half left, the Rangers got Salty, and Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz; Salty has stalled, but Feliz looks like a dominant starter and Andrus an above average short stop (they were 93rd and 19th on BA's preseason 100). They also got two prospects who are longer shots at this point. For Bay, a very good but not great left fielder with a year after this one at a reasonable $7.5 million, the team got one very good prospect (LaRoche, #31 on the preason BA list), another prospect with decent upside (Morris), a decent third/good fourth outfielder in Moss, and Craig Hansen, who could be a good reliever or could be a bust at this point. Given that they are not contending this year, nor will they likely next year, it seems like a pretty good haul given that teams have become increasingly reluctant to trade younger players.

For the Red Sox, I'm a little more ambivalent. In effect, they traded Manny Ramirez, $7 million, and two borderline starters (for them anyway) for Jason Bay, a guy who, when factoring in defense and baserunning, is probably about as good as or slightly worse than Manny Ramirez. The upshot of it is that Bay will actually try and won't be a clubhouse cancer. I don't imagine that the Red Sox would have renewed Manny at $20 million next year, so they have Bay at a fraction of that cost, so its probably worth that for them.

Oh, and I guess compensatory draft picks are all the rage these days around these parts, so theoretically the Dodgers could offer Ramirez arbitration after they decline his option. I can't imagine Ramirez would accept, so the Dodgers would net two picks. Of course, they've shown utter disdain for their farm system under Ned Colletti, so whether they want them, who knows. While we're on the subject, compensatory draft picks are not worth nearly what everyone ascribes to them. As Robert Dudek pointed out the other day, they cost money, they're far away from the majors, and as with any draft picks, there is a high rate of failure. And really, if a team was really that determined to get extra picks, they could easily just spend that money scouting in Latin America and pay a bunch of 17 year old kids a million dollars to sign with them.


To Chicago:
Ken Griffey Jr.

To Cincinatti:

Danny Richar, Nick Masset

Danny Richar is a pretty decent second base prospect who doesn't have enough of a glove to play short full time, though he can fill in. The Reds have Brandon Phillips at second, so I'm not quite sure where that leaves Richar. If Richar can hit for average in the majors he'll be a good player - he has decent pop and will take a couple of walks. Masset doesn't look like anything special at this point - in 84 ML inning he has whiffed 53 against 47 walks. He's only 26, and could still keep developing I suppose. The Reds got back a decent return for a guy who doesn't help them going forward.

As has been repeated ad nauseum, it's unclear where the Sox will play Griffey, who at this point is an average hitter and below average fielder. Carlos Quentin and Jermaine Dye occupy the outfield spots, Thome DH, and Nick Swisher CF. Some configuration could, I suppose, end up with Swisher at first and the scuffling Paul Konerko on the bench, but if Griffey plays CF that will be trouble. It's hard to see how this move really helps them too much going forward. At the very least their bench will be better, and they didn't give up too much.


To New York:
Ivan Rodriguez

To Detroit:
Kyle Farnsworth

The Verdict:
Hard to know what to make of this one. I suppose the Yankees are sort of selling high on Farnsworth, as he's been very up and down, and the Yankees have kindof figured out their pen situation. With that being said, Jose Molina is probably a better defender than Pudge at this point, if not his equal, and Pudge is hardly a superstar with the bat now. Much of his value is tied up in his batting average, which is being driven by a very high (.344) average on balls in play. The Tigers pen has been dreadful, but I'm not quite sure how one mediocre reliever really changes that. I don't think compensatory draft picks will be a huge factor here.

To Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California, United States, The World:
Mark Teixeira

To Atlanta:
Casey Kotchman, Stephen Marek

The Verdict:
This whole Teixeira business didn't work out too well for the Braves. He was good for them, but they didn't make the playoffs either year they had him, and the prospects they traded to get him (see above) are better than what they got in return for him. Casey Kotchman is a great defender at first, and when he's on he can draw a couple of walks and hit for a bit of pop, though he doesn't really have home run power. The Braves will have him under control for another three seasons, but he's arbitration eligible so he'll get more expensive, and all he really is is a nice complimentary piece. Marek looks like he'll be a long man at this point, unless he can get his control issues under wraps.

For the Angels this trade is about the playoffs (sorry if all this commentary is starting to sound familiar!) They've all but sewn up the division, and Teixeira is a big scary bat that will help them in the playoffs. They also have first crack at re-signing him, though he'll likely command a nine figure deal, at a minimum. If he walks they'll get picks, and if they keep him the loss of Kotchman is hardly that big. I like this trade a lot from the Angels perspective.


Anyway, thats how I saw the four largest trades of deadline day(s). It was kindof disapointing, in retrospect, wasn't it?

Please commence talking amongst yourselves. The Jays face the Rangers tonight in Arlington, a place that's never been kind to them. Maybe if they sweep they'll be back in the race!!!!!!!!!
August 1, 2008: To Bay, or not to Bay | 25 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
RhyZa - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#190008) #

I like what the Angels did, while the Sox made out alright under the circumstances.  I expect Bay to be a 'good Canadian boy' and should be a welcome addition to that clubhouse after the Manny saga.  The Dodgers got Manny for relatively cheap, but it's still a bit comical to see them adding another OF in that mess. 

The Rays really missed the boat here I think, but it's hard to fault them when it seems what the Pirates were asking for and what they finally settled for seemed quite different, which makes me kind of underwhelmed at what they finally got for J Ray Bay.

In other news, Felipe Lopez was released.. hmmm...

Dan Daoust - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#190010) #

An eventful afternoon in Major League Baseball (although... not really?) as a sort of blockbuster trade gets done. I have to say, it really wasn't that exciting on the whole.

Seriously?  Because my head is still swimming.  Nobody had a clue Manny was headed to LA until it happened, and as a result, as I see it, we just watched the Dodgers win their division (fine, who cares) and the Yankees pass Boston for the wild card, and maybe beyond.

I've decided you're being sarcastic.  Pretend we didn't have this conversation.

Anders - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#190013) #
Nate Silver covers the Ramirez deal better than I have/could have, though I'm not sure I agree completely with his all his reasoning (though he's dead on with the Dodgers situation). His thoughts on the quality of the day - a ton of rumours that didn't come to be, and only a couple of minor deals other than the Ramirez one - mirror my own.
Chuck - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#190016) #

Oh, and I guess compensatory draft picks are all the rage these days around these parts, so theoretically the Dodgers could offer Ramirez arbitration after they decline his option.

I can offer up no evidence, but I thought I read somewhere that a stipulation of Ramirez waiving his no-trade rights was that LA would not offer him arbitration. This would allow off-season suitors to not have to concern themselves with losing draft picks and hence make Ramirez more attractive.

Although, now that I say that, I am quite sure I don't fully understand when draft picks apply and when they don't. Ramirez will certainly be a Type A free agent. Wouldn't that warrant draft pick compensation regardless?

Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#190017) #
Actually, it's Joe Sheehan's piece not Nate Silver's.  I agree with Sheehan.  I would estimate the difference between Ethier and Ramirez in the field is 20 runs/150G, which basically wipes out Ramirez' advantage with the bat.  This doesn't account for the baserunning difference. The Dodgers had Andruw Jones, Pierre, Kemp and Ethier in the outfield already.  They don't even get the advantage of using Ramirez as a DH in the interleague games.

The most sensible thing that they could do is platoon Ethier and Manny in left-field (and bring on Ethier as a defensive replacement as well).  Good luck with that.
Pistol - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#190018) #
Wouldn't that warrant draft pick compensation regardless?

If a team doesn't offer arbitration there's no compensation if a player leaves .
Anders - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#190019) #
Actually, it's Joe Sheehan's piece not Nate Silver's.

Ack. It's been a long week.

On another note, I wonder if there is any configuration that ends up as Ramirez, Kemp and Ethier in the outfield, though that would be pretty brutal.

Justin Inaz via Myran Logan has Manny at -14 runs so far this year, Pierre at +8, Kemp at -5 and Ethier at +2.5. Andruw Jones is +7, and this is based strictly on playing time and not /150.
Chuck - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#190022) #
neoI caught a bit of the Dodgers game last night and Frank McCourt was being interviewed. He was positively giddy about Ramirez's arrival ('Tis true). He then went on to talk about the impending playoff race his team would be part of and praised the effort of the guys in the dugout for what they had achieved to date. Now, he's not going to say anything other than what he said, but you wouldn't know he was describing a .500 team the way he was carrying on (albeit a .500 team that could well play in October).
Chuck - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#190023) #
I caught a bit of the Dodgers game last night and Frank McCourt was being interviewed. He was positively giddy about Ramirez's arrival ('Tis true). He then went on to talk about the impending playoff race his team would be part of and praised the effort of the guys in the dugout for what they had achieved to date. Now, he's not going to say anything other than what he said, but you wouldn't know he was describing a .500 team the way he was carrying on (albeit a .500 team that could well play in October).
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#190024) #
Ramirez, Kemp and Ethier in the outfield?  I guess that it's possible.  The Dodgers do have a ground ball staff, and you can bring in Pierre/Jones for defence with a lead late. 

The movie title for this script: "There will be triples."

christaylor - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#190026) #
McCourt's giddiness is just another kick in the teeth to Jay's fans... AL East hasn't been as weak the the NL West is now since the last time Cito was trotted in... and may never well be that weak again.

Give me a balanced schedule and the top 4 teams making the playoffs (no divisions) please... this is starting to bug me (though less than the Jays offense).
Magpie - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#190028) #
We've all grown  pretty interested in frayed labrums and rotator cuffs lately, for obvious reasons. So let me send everyone straight over to Curt Schilling's blog. He writes at length about his most recent surgery, discusses in detail the various shoulder parts, what his particular issues are, and how it affected him. He also includes some really remarkable photographs - see a frayed labrum for yourselves!

Hey, Rob - there's a link!

By the way, Manny is listed as wearing #28 for the Dodgers (#24 is retired for Walter Alston.) I was wondering.
92-93 - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#190029) #
"The movie title for this script: "There will be triples."

Mike, the Dodgers are my NL team, and I don't quite understand all your hatred for this move. Yesterday you said that the Pirates and Sox did well, and the Dodgers didn't. Now you are worried about the OF defense. Well, run prevention hasn't been a problem all year for the Dodgers, and that's with considerable injuries to their starting pitching. What they need is offense, and the needed it badly, a big scary bat for the middle of the lineup, and that's exactly what Manny is, even though he has declined a bit over the years. The sacrifices made defensively will be well worth it offensively. I'm sure many Jays fans wouldn't mind sacrificing some of Rolen's D to pick up ARod's bat - the difference in OPS change the Dodgers are getting by playing Manny every day would be similar to that upgrade.

It's easy when your favorite teams are the Jays & Dodgers - you get to bleed blue all day.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#190031) #
The interaction between pitching and defence.  Exhibit 1, your 2008 Tampa Bay Rays.  The skeptics at the start of the year said: "there's no way they are going to be able knock 200-250 runs off their runs allowed, with the pitching staff being so similar".  Here is the 2008 staff by FIP.  Here is the 2007 staff by FIP.  The pitchers have improved somewhat, and the defence has improved a lot. 

So, here is Andy Sonnanstine's card. And here is Edwin Jackson's.  There was no great leap forward from each, but they went from being drags on the club to being league average starters.  A substantial portion of the credit for that belongs to the new infield.

It works in reverse, and believe me, if the Dodgers put Kemp in center and Manny in left instead of Jones in center and Pierre in left, the pitchers will really notice the difference. Billingsley and Kershaw get plenty of groundballs and strikeouts, but I'd guess they would notice the change the most. We'll see.

Magpie - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#190032) #
The movie title for this script: "There will be triples."

But not as many as you might expect, if only because it's quite difficult to hit a triple at Dodger Stadium. Chavez Ravine reduces hits of all kinds - since it opened, the Dodgers and their opponents have batted .255 and slugged .385 in road games, while batting .247 and slugging .354 in Los Angeles. They combine to hit 87% as many homers, 80% as many doubles, and just 57% as many triples at Dodger Stadium. A big park, but with rather small outfield territory.

Now road games.... yeah, there could be some triples.
92-93 - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#190033) #
When you need offense, you can sacrifice some defense to get it. You can keep on mentioning the defensive aspects of the trade, it won't change the fact this is a good trade for the Dodgers. The same way we would want ARod instead of Rolen and Giambi instead of Overbay, despite whatever effect it would have on our previously awesome pitching staff.
Mike Green - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#190034) #
Dodger pitchers have surrendered a .282/.350/.436 line on the road this year (and their hitters have done much better, as usual, there too).  For some reason, BBRef has Chavez Ravine as a positive hitting park both for one year and multi-year. I am pretty sure that it's an error.
brent - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#190035) #
RhyZa is right about the haul for Bay being a little disappointing. They must have hurt their market by asking for way too much from him and losing suitors.
Chuck - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#190036) #
Gaston must have spent his off day at BB-Ref. Barajas has been dropped to 7th in the order, Eckstein is manning second base for the first time since 2001 and Lind is now a heart of the order hitter (yes, Cito hearts Adam).
Newton - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#190038) #

A motivated Manny, is a rare and dangerous hitting machine.

The Dodgers will get big time production from him down the stretch and his presence changes the heart of that order dramatically.

Dropping their two 20 mill options was a stroke of genius.  They probably weren't interested in exercising them anyway and Manny figures he can get far more than 40 mill on the open market next year if he can be a difference maker from here on out.   He was actually worried about the Red Sox picking up the options.

The Manny signing in the winter of 2000 was a flashpoint in the Red Sox v. Yankees rivalry.  They outbid the Yanks for him after an historical stretch of Yankee success; The Yanks haven't won a WS since the signing and the Sox have won two.

Nabbing Bay was a solid pickup, but he's not a proven post-season commodity and I think the Steinbrenner's slept a little easier last night.

GregJP - Friday, August 01 2008 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#190039) #
This Jesse Carlson obsession is very strange.
Thomas - Saturday, August 02 2008 @ 05:25 AM EDT (#190043) #
Nabbing Bay was a solid pickup, but he's not a proven post-season commodity and I think the Steinbrenner's slept a little easier last night.

He may not be a "proven post-season commodity," but the Red Sox dealt Ramirez for a player who is better (once defence is taken into consideration), cheaper and under control for another season, all for the price of Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss. This comes during a time when it was becoming increasingly clear to everyone that Ramirez had to be dealt, although the front office deserves some of the blame for how badly things deteriorated. This was a very good trade for Boston, whether Bay's "proven" in the postseason or not.
Anders - Saturday, August 02 2008 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#190044) #
This Jesse Carlson obsession is very strange.

He's basically been the Jays second best reliever this season. I don't think allowing an inherited runner on third to score when you come in with less than two outs is that criminal.

Plenty of other Jays were to blame for last nights loss.
Thomas - Saturday, August 02 2008 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#190049) #
Old friend Reed Johnson finds himself in an unfamiliar spot in the Cubs lineup this afternoon: batting fifth. This is actually his fourth career start in the fifth-hole, all coming with the Cubs (May 25, July 24, July 30). He's 5-12 with a walk in games he starts in that lineup spot.
GregJP - Sunday, August 03 2008 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#190077) #
Rance Mulliniks......

...the comb-ee-nation of..........

LOL

August 1, 2008: To Bay, or not to Bay | 25 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.