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Can once-upon-a-time Blue Jay prospect Michael Young reach 3000 career hits? Well, sure, he can, but will he?

Former Bauxite Scott Lucas, now the #2 man in Jamey Newberg's stellar Texas Ranger writer rotation, examines this question -- recently addressed on both MLB.com and in the Dallas Morning News -- in his latest edition of The Ranger Rundown.

It's one of the most sensible uses of historical statistical comparisons I've ever seen in this age of "most similars" and "closest comparables." Give it a read and check in with your opinion -- personally, I think he's hit the nail on the head. (And I hope he's wrong! My guess is he hopes so, too ...)

Michael Young ... 3,000-Hit Club? | 16 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Sunday, March 07 2010 @ 05:24 PM EST (#212234) #
Lucas is dead on.  The only additional comment that I would make is that Young doesn't have characteristics of a player likely to post very good hit totals into the late 30s- excellent plate control and/or very good speed.   So, if he has a nice end of career run, it is more likely to have a shape similar to last year's numbers.  Good power, more walks, a few more Ks and hitting .290. 
Mylegacy - Sunday, March 07 2010 @ 07:31 PM EST (#212236) #
Young and Wells - wouldn't that have been sweet for the last decade? Sigh.

On well - as to Young going forward - I don't see it. Based my recollection of watching him play last year I see a guy who's on the cusp of having his body go south. Physically, I don't think he's got much left. Hope for his sake I'm wrong. I've been (and am/are) a big fan.

Gerry - Monday, March 08 2010 @ 04:45 PM EST (#212252) #
I don't think he can do it.  Up until last year Young was remarkably consistent, playing 156+ games per year.  But last year that dropped down to 135 and I think he is more likely than not to see more injury time as he gets older.  He has a long way to go to 3000 and he cannot afford to miss any time.
Geoff - Tuesday, March 09 2010 @ 03:18 PM EST (#212269) #
Merry Spring Training, Bauxites.

In what is almost sure to be the biggest news to come down the MLB pike in a long while, a Verducci article offers promise of hope to all those who have a bit of distaste for the AL East.

I'd heard the idea bounced around earlier, but never given the credibility that the commissioner's office/cronies would actually give it enough merit to consider it. From the article about the proposal of floating realignment:
 One example of floating realignment, according to one insider, would work this way: Cleveland, which is rebuilding with a reduced payroll, could opt to leave the AL Central to play in the AL East. The Indians would benefit from an unbalanced schedule that would give them a total of 18 lucrative home dates against the Yankees and Red Sox instead of their current eight. A small or mid-market contender, such as Tampa Bay or Baltimore, could move to the AL Central to get a better crack at postseason play instead of continually fighting against the mega-payrolls of New York and Boston.

Geoff - Tuesday, March 09 2010 @ 03:33 PM EST (#212270) #
Could have been here that I was tuned in to this crazy idea of realignment by the fabulous Mr. Northey on February 1st.   I quote:




vw_fan17 - Tuesday, March 09 2010 @ 03:44 PM EST (#212272) #
In what is almost sure to be the biggest news to come down the MLB pike in a long while, a Verducci article offers promise of hope to all those who have a bit of distaste for the AL East.

From the same article:
Blue Jays center fielder Vernon Wells already can tell the difference in his surgically repaired left wrist. "Cured my slice," he said jokingly. As for his baseball swing, Wells said his wrist feels normal for the first time since he injured ligaments in it back in May of 2008.
John Northey - Tuesday, March 09 2010 @ 03:58 PM EST (#212273) #
Seems silly and unlikely to me. Realignment every year would be a bit of a mess for schedule making, and would also require a team in each division willing to trade which I just don't see happening. A few more dates vs the Yankees/Red Sox in exchange for saying 'nope, not going to contend this year'. Nah.

My favorite is cutting back to 2 divisions and having 2 wild cards - thus the Yanks or Sox could win the east then the other takes one wild card while the Jays fight it out with everyone except the best in the West for the 2nd slot. A lot more fair without adding another layer of playoffs.

Detroit and Cleveland would move back into the AL East with this while Chicago/KC/Minnesota go back into the AL West (as it was pre-1994). NL would see a bit more of a mess with the NL Central being mainly central time zone places - Cincinnati and Pittsburgh would go east, Houston west, with St Louis/Cubs/Milwaukee seeing 2 go west and one go east. St Louis to the east would probably make the most sense but it is marginal.

Best would be full radical re-alignment. No more AL/NL, just the top 8 in the majors going to the playoffs. Now THAT would be radical. No hope of it happening of course, but it would be interesting to see standings from #1 to #30 with no leagues or divisions.
Parker - Tuesday, March 09 2010 @ 04:48 PM EST (#212274) #

Blue Jays center fielder Vernon Wells already can tell the difference in his surgically repaired left wrist. "Cured my slice," he said jokingly. As for his baseball swing, Wells said his wrist feels normal for the first time since he injured ligaments in it back in May of 2008.

Why is the organization still trying to feed us this tripe?  Do they honestly think we're stupid enough to believe the wrist injury only affected Wells during home games?

I was really hoping that once J.P. "They're Not Lies if We Know the Truth" Ricciardi was sent packing, we wouldn't have to be insulted by this kind of "news" anymore.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, March 09 2010 @ 05:07 PM EST (#212275) #
What's the organization got to do with anything, and what's being fed? Wells - the player - said his wrist feels better than it has since before he injured it. He hasn't made any magical pronouncements about his performance, nor is he entirely blaming his performance on the wrist.
Denoit - Tuesday, March 09 2010 @ 05:17 PM EST (#212277) #
Vernon Wells has had no problem performing at home in the past, what makes you believe that all of a sudden from 2009 on he can't do it anymore?  Baseball is much more than just a physical game there is a mental side to it as well. A physical issue could lead to a menal confidence issue and that could in turn lead to squewed numbers like he had. I find his splits a bit odd last year obviously there was something going on. His numbers were not great on the road either.
Spifficus - Tuesday, March 09 2010 @ 05:31 PM EST (#212278) #
It's Wells speaking directly, as opposed to the organization. Of course, given his performance over two of the past three years, I'm putting it in the same pile as the "I'm in the best shape of my life" stories - sure, he could see a resurgence but I'll believe it when I see it.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, March 10 2010 @ 07:23 AM EST (#212283) #
The sad thing is that he'd have to play at about 150% of the peak ability we've seen out of him to earn that contract. A return to full health probably still wouldn't make him tradable.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, March 10 2010 @ 09:57 AM EST (#212286) #
At this point, who knows what Wells will do? He's been all over the place for the past 3 years - hitting when he's hurt, sucking when he's healthy, suddenly being unable to hit right-handers, then lefties; on the road, at home...

I don't think it would surprise me if he hit .310 or .250.


China fan - Wednesday, March 10 2010 @ 09:59 AM EST (#212287) #

    A physical issue could lead to a menal confidence issue and that could in turn lead to squewed numbers like he had.

    If Vernon is squewed, the Jays are squrewed.

John Northey - Wednesday, March 10 2010 @ 05:32 PM EST (#212294) #
I'm not so much wanting Wells to be tradeable as for him to be valuable.

An OPS+ of 100 with solid CF defense is valuable. A 120 OPS+ with average RF/LF defense or poor CF defense is valuable. An OPS+ in the 80's with poor defense is not.

Health is the big question. If Vernon is healthy and 100% then a 110 OPS+ with mediocre CF defense should be possible which would provide value to the Jays. Not $20+ million of value, but enough to be better than a replacement level player and possibly an above average player (depending on his CF defense level) worth $5-10 million.

Vernon is a 'sunk cost'. Nothing can be done about that contract. The Jays just need to see a league average player out of him to be satisfied right now. Odds are his all-star days are long gone. Odds are his high end defense days are long gone. Accept it, move on.
scottt - Thursday, March 11 2010 @ 06:46 AM EST (#212299) #
The problem with Wells is that you don't know what you're getting. Even if he were an all-star this year, he could still be the worst player on the team by the time they try to compete. He's a player with a lot of downside.

Ultimately, I see him switching place with Snider in the batting order. That could take a while.

Michael Young ... 3,000-Hit Club? | 16 comments | Create New Account
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