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Brett Lawrie has been called up by the Jays.

Travis Snider is headed back to Las Vegas.

Carlos Villanueva is headed to the DL.

Luis Perez is recalled but will pitch out of the bullpen.



Brett Lawrie will join the Blue Jays tomorrow in Baltimore.  AA has said he wants Lawrie to join the team on the road and Baltimore qualifies in that regard.  Unfortunately there has been so much anticipation for Lawrie's arrival that it could be a combination of overwhelming for him, and a fan/media disapointment unless he hits the ground running.

The Jose Bautista, third baseman, era is over, once again.

Neither Travis Snider nor Eric Thames have been hitting well over the last week.  Snider had lost the good swing he had when he came back from las Vegas and now he returns to his muse, Chad Mottola, to find the magic, hopefully for keeps this time.  snider was great when he first came up but his swing has lost its mojo over the last week.  Thames needs to find an approach that works for him too.  Thames will also move back to left field.

We hope Carlos V is not injured, hopefully it is just fatigue.   For now the Jays have two starter questions, who will replace Villanueva and can Mills hack it in the starting role?  The Jays do have an off day next Monday so they can go with a four man rotation in the short term but the lineup for the fifth starter spot starts with Jesse Litsch, followed by Henderson Alvarez and Kyle Drabek.

The Messiah Is Coming | 178 comments | Create New Account
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uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#240135) #
poor timing, IMO.

really should have had him up for this series.

now it seems tainted and reactionary.

still, it's about time.

too bad for Snider, but the kid just doesn't deserve to be up here right now.
Kasi - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#240136) #
Snider is just lost out there. All arms and no patience. Thames has his issues too, but his swing looks so much better and more consistent than Snider.

I'm happy to see Lawrie come up. Perez should help stabilize our bullpen. I think this means Litsch goes back to the 5th starter, which is fine with me.
ayjackson - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#240137) #
Snider will hit as well or better than Lawrie in Vegas.  Been there, done that.  Mind boggling.
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#240138) #
Snider hasn't hit anywhere remotely close to as well in vegas this year as Lawrie has.
Kasi - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#240139) #
Really? Because look at his numbers with Vegas this year. 333/403/488 in over 220 ABs. That is far worse than what Lawrie and Thames have done there, not to mention Cooper and Loewen.
85bluejay - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#240140) #
What are the odds that we are at the start of the long goodbye to Snider? Is he out of options next year or does he get a 4th option?
Lylemcr - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#240142) #

I watched the game today and I think that pitchers found out how to get Thames out.  He is hitting 205 the past 2 weeks and his average is at about 280. 

He deserves to stay right now, but another 2 weeks of this and he is back to Vegas with Snider. 

Maldoff - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#240143) #
Wow. When he was recalled, AA basically said "it's sink or swim time with Travis. He won't be going back down unless we think he can't hack it." I'm shocked that the Jays would ride through the troubles of guys like Encarnacion (at the beginning of the season), Hill and Rivera, but not let Snider works things out at the major league level.
ayjackson - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#240144) #
Snider hasn't hit anywhere remotely close to as well in vegas this year as Lawrie has.                   He's shown in the past he can slaughter the PCL.  I believe there was a five week span last year (or the year before) where he OPS'd around 1.300 there.  He needs to be here, learning to hit major league pitching.  Or sent elsewhere for a fresh start.   He's being jerked around like Lind was.   I was even understanding of the first demotion this year.  I realize now that that was a mistake, but this is even bigger.
Magpie - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#240145) #
Is he out of options next year

Yes, he is.
Ron - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#240146) #
I think there's a good chance Snider is traded in the off-season. Based on a little under 900 Major League PA's, I think it's fair to say Snider is looking like a bust right now. He's only 23 years old but the Jays have bounced him up and down the minors/majors which probably hasn't helped his development. If Snider develops into the scary middle order of the bat that we all thought he would become, it's likely going to be in another uniform.
PeteMoss - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#240147) #
It had been rumoured all week that Lawrie would be up on Friday for the Orioles. Doubt it had anything to do with this game.
92-93 - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#240148) #
Lebatard said the Blue Jays tried to get Hanley Ramirez all week from the Marlins. Start your offer with Drabek + Snider this winter and take it from there.
Jonny German - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#240149) #
Thumbs down to yanking Snider around for the sake of Teahen. Only one of these two has any shot of ever being a big contributor to a playoff team and it isn't the guy headed for Vegas.
Kasi - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#240150) #
In the past he has shown this for very brief stretches that are almost meaningless for any useful analysis. Anyone can have a hot 4 week stretch, especially in Vegas where doubles drop like candy.

That's what Snider's career has pretty much been, a few flashes of brilliance interrupted by long periods of mediocrity.
85bluejay - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#240151) #
I've always felt that Snider was rushed in 2008 (like Rios) & I think the Team is paying the price
PeteMoss - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#240152) #
Maybe he is the messiah... check out rotoworld.com

Big banner at the top- BREAKING NEWS: Blue Jays promote top 3B prospect Brett Lawrie
85bluejay - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#240153) #
the problem is that the Marlins open their new stadium next season & are unlikely to move their most established star - if he struggles again next year, maybe.
ayjackson - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#240154) #

That's what Snider's career has pretty much been, a few flashes of brilliance interrupted by long periods of mediocrity.

Au contraire.  His minor league career is mostly one long hotstreak; couple of injuries and maybe a few weeks of pouting aside.

smcs - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#240155) #
Great. The Jays have finally called up someone younger than me. The dream is over.
Shaker - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#240156) #
Off-season: Travis Snider for Chase D'Arnaud?
dan gordon - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#240157) #

Snider has 5 HR's this year in roughly 400 AB's between AAA and the majors.  He's hitting in the .230 range in the bigs and yes, he's hitting about .330 in Vegas, but you've got to put that into context.  Look at all the guys who have hit .300 or so in Vegas the last 2 seasons.  I think you have to knock off about 60 points in average to get a more realistic view of how well a guy is hitting there.  I think he's got some work to do.  On the other hand, he's only 23 and I think he still has a ton of ability.  Too bad he was called up so early in his career.  The first season he was called up to Toronto, he had spent the vast majority of the season in AA and hit .262 at that level.  If he had spent that entire season at AA, then a season or 2 at AAA, he'd just be in his 1st or 2nd big league season now.  I hope they don't give up on him - I still think he's going to be a very good player.   

katman - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#240158) #
* Glad to see Lawrie.

* Snider does look lost, but I do not see the point in sending him down. It was either him or Thames. I would have sent Thames down.

* I do not see the point of keeping Teahen on the roster at all. Can anyone provide the argument, and enlighten me?

* Rausch doesn't have the epic numbers of Joey McLaughlin, but he's working on it despite limited playing time. The guy just isn't fooling anyone, and he's throwing way too many balls.

Really, our bullpen, as a whole just sucks. Rausch as noted above. Camp isn't looking great lately, really regressing as ERA balloons. LOOGY Miller wasn't all that good in STL, didn't get better. A very good middle reliever (CV) has had his arm blown out by being a starter too long, when he had no long term hope there. Litsch needs to go back to the rotation, which will now leave us with a long reliever problem. Janssen is OK, and Francisco is looking better but not yet really good, and that's pretty much it. You knew it would be bad when Frasor, Zep, and Dotel left, but wow, this is just team-crushingly bad.

Let's hope Perez gives us at least 1 more pitcher at "OK" level. Hell, maybe he wants to try closing...
Matthew E - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#240159) #
Look at it this way: Anthopoulos has established a pattern of acquiring young ballplayers who have a ton of potential but can't seem to make it work with their current organization, for whatever reason. He got Morrow, he got Escobar, he got Rasmus. You could even put Lawrie in that category if you really wanted to.

Well, Snider's another one of those guys. And the even better news is, the Jays don't have to give up a thing to acquire him.

I don't expect them to give up on him. Not now, not in the off-season, not next year. If they traded him away, he'd immediately become the top candidate for Anthopoulos to try to trade for.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#240160) #
I concur with Jonny.  Teahen should have been DFAed rather than Snider being sent down. 
Beyonder - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#240161) #

Given the raft of blue jay prospects making their way up through the minors, I think we should be using this window of opportunity to answer as many lingering questions about players on the current roster as possible.  The most pressing one in my mind is whether Travis can hit major league pitching.  Only once we have an answer to that question should we throw full-time at-bats at Thames.  Thames (barring a trade) is going to be around for the next four years.  We have plenty of time to decide whether he can play.  The window on Travis is narrowing.  More important, this latest demotion will only screw with his already-fragile confidence. 

 

 

Jonny German - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#240162) #
I wonder about Chad Billingsley. I know the statheads still believe in him, as his FIP keeps going down even as his ERA keeps going up. What do the scouts think? And what do the Dodgers think? Are they motivated to move his $35M over the next 3 years?
katman - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#240163) #
I'm completely with Beyonder.
Magpie - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#240164) #
Teahen should have been DFAed rather than Snider being sent down.

Anthopoulos described the choice as between Snider or Thames. Unless you bench Encarnacion, there's only room for one of Snider or Thames in the lineup. The other either sits in the majors, or plays in the minors. It's hard to bench Encarnacion right now - especially if Anthopoulos promised (as he reportedly did) that they would try to give Encarnacion regular at bats this season.
TamRa - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#240165) #
it's puzzling - I have to think there are some internal discussions we don't know about on this (potential trades in the works for instance) that makes this make sense. Not getting to watch every game I'm not able to comment on whether Snider's swing has gone south on him again - but i do know Thames isn't hitting any better than Snider lately and you'd think they would swap the demotions up just for the psychological benefit.

And, as with everyone else, I don't get clinking to Teahan. if you DFA him today, he'll be in limbo for 10 days and spend a tic over two weeks in Vegas (assuming he accepts the assignment) and then be back - i don't see why he can't "know his role" for a lousy two weeks.



james - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#240166) #
Great. The Jays have finally called up someone younger than me. The dream is over.

Welcome to the what-could-have club, smcs.

I still remember when the Jays called up Manny Lee, born 2 months before me.


brent - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#240167) #
I'm glad Snider is getting sent to Mottola because his swing is way off. Murph is definitely not helping him.
TamRa - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#240168) #
by the way - why wasn't Franscisco used today?
Kasi - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#240169) #
He was. Just in the ninth inning though.
BlueJayWay - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#240170) #
I wouldn't be surprised if Snider is traded in the off season.  And it might not be the worst thing in the world, both for him and the Jays.

Maybe they should've had Mottola with the big club all along to keep his swing straightened out.  Right now he looks just so messed up.

dan gordon - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#240172) #
McCowan asked AA if Snider was in danger of becoming a quadruple A player and AA said no, that Snider is way too young, and that he had a ton of ability.  He didn't sound at all like somebody who was thinking of trading Travis.  Basically he said that Thames had better numbers for the year, so he couldn't justify sending Thames down.  Said they need to play Encarnacion to see if he can continue to hit like he has been lately because they have the option on him for next year and they'll need to make a decision on him.  I was hoping McCowan would ask him who would be the 5th starter - if Alvarez might get called up, but he didn't ask about that.  AA did say that they would be looking at adding a couple of closer candidates in the offseason.
TamRa - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#240173) #
He was. Just in the ninth inning though.

Yeah, I overlooked it at first glance (at the box score)  - i do think that he pretty much HAS to be the "closer" from here out but I can't deny that if Rauch had been in the ninth instead, he'd have just given up a homer to Joyce instead of Jennings and we'd never have gotten to extras.

JohnL - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#240175) #
Great. The Jays have finally called up someone younger than me. The dream is over.

Welcome to the what-could-have club, smcs.
I still remember when the Jays called up Manny Lee, born 2 months before me.


And I still remember when Phil Niekro retired. He was the last major leaguer that was older than me.
BlueJayWay - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#240179) #
I'm not going to worry until I'm older than a GM. 
uglyone - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#240181) #
people are taking this a little bit extremely.

Snider is now the youngest player on the 51s. This is hardly a death sentence.

Thames and Lawrie absolutely mashed the ball this year in vegas, and deserve to be on the Jays. Hell, Cooper has mashed the ball and deserves a look ahead of Snider, and even Loewen has been significantly better than Travis.

We've got a whole whack of talented young kids that are simply outperforming Snider right now. He has to earn his spot....there's really no reason whatsoever to hand it to him anymore.
Mylegacy - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#240182) #
About this Lawrie kid...

R/R 6' 0" 215 pounds, 21 years old (turns 22 in January 2012),...

OVERALL:         353, 416,  661, 1.076
Vs LHP:              329, 391, 593, .986
Vs RHP:             362,  424, 685, 1.110
At Lost Wages: 343, 406, 679, 1.085
Away from LW:  362, 424, 645, 1.068

Seems like there is a lot to like about this guy - hey - I hear he's a Canadian too, not bad eh?

Beyonder - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#240183) #
@uglyone. It may not be a death sentence, but it's a hell of a fall from grace for the guy who was by broad consensus picked to be the Jay's breakout player this season. After last year, and after patiently waiting his turn for the previous two, it just seems to me that he deserved more of an audition than 182 at bats.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#240184) #
I can remember interviewing Lawrie days before the amateur draft when he was just 18 and was busy going around from team to team doing private workouts. He was a very confident kid in his abilities even back then. He's going to be a fun one to watch, but let's not heap the pressure on him just yet.
hypobole - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#240185) #
I don't understand how DFA'ing Teahan and his 2 plate appearances per week is going to solve any problems with Snider or the Jays. Snider needs to play every day - he will in Vegas. Thames needs to play every day - he will with the Jays. Is it that complicated?
TtD - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#240186) #
Not really a major surprise that Snider has been sent down, his swing is simply broken in it's current form.  Sure Thames and Encarnacion have struggled at times but their swing has not been the issue, Thames is still maintaining the same smooth compact swing he's had since he was called up and it just looks like a slump (he's probably closer to a natural .270 hitter and he's come back to his average after a hot start).  Snider meanwhile is just flailing at things from swing to swing, and there's no consistancy at all to it.  I was one of those that questioned his being called up last month, and I still say he should be down in Vegas until his swing is completely rebuilt and embedded in for at least a season.  I'd be happy not to see him with Toronto until 2013 if it means he'll be anything approaching a consistant asset.
Mylegacy - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#240187) #
A KLaw blog tidbit (should I say KLaw blog TimBit?)

After some guy compared Hill to a corpse - KLaw said:

"I'd take a shot at Hill if I was GM of another club - unless there's a physical issue I don't know about, I think there's still plenty there to work with."
Mylegacy - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#240189) #
Speaking of KLaw and with apologies to him and his KLaw nickname...

How about B Lawrie's nickname being BLaw?

Any other ideas?

China fan - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#240190) #
Snider might just be one of those prospects who finally puts it together at an older age.  He might not get it figured out until he's 25 or 26 (or even 27 like Alex Gordon this year).  In the meantime, we need to be patient -- and not pile up the pressure on him.  Maybe he needs another season at AAA and a slower return to the majors.  But if the Jays are to contend for a playoff spot in 2012 or 2013, they can't be automatically giving a full-time OF job to an under-performing prospect just because the fans love him and he was a first-round draft pick.  When he deserves a full-time job, he will get it.  In the meantime, we need to be patient with his development path and allow him enough time at AAA to develop.
Beyonder - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#240191) #
China fan. He hit roughly .250 last year with 14 home runs in 280 at bats. That alone should have earned him 300 at bats during this supposedly developmental year. If they aren't prepared to give him the remaining 200 at bats at the tail end of a meaningless year, I doubt he'll ever see them.
92-93 - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#240192) #

In the meantime, we need to be patient -- and not pile up the pressure on him.

Piling up the pressure on him is exactly what they're doing by sending him down after each callup and the promise that he'd see regular playing time no matter what.

Maybe he needs another season at AAA and a slower return to the majors.

You can't defend the front office every which way. If this is the case (and that Snider indeed should have been demoted), it was a mistake to bring him back on July 4th.

But if the Jays are to contend for a playoff spot in 2012 or 2013, they can't be automatically giving a full-time OF job to an under-performing prospect just because the fans love him and he was a first-round draft pick.

This was the reason to give Snider the everyday LF job and see what he can do in 2011, a non contending year.

When he deserves a full-time job, he will get it.

Except for apparently every other time he's been deemed ready for the major leagues.

jvictor - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#240193) #

For what it's worth....  How about a little love for Sniders defence?  Since the day he was drafted, Snider was going to struggle to stay out of being a DH.  He has progressed so far that he did not embarass himself in centre, certainly when compared to Patterson and Davis.  May I go so far as to say he looks good in left.  He takes good routes to balls, has speed and no longer gets turned around.  Let us remember that a fly ball to Snider was was an adventure not too long ago.  I don't have the metrics before me - wouldn't know where to find them - but with both not hitting much it is possible that Sniders glove is worth more to the team than Thames'.  

The Tehan thing is a red herring.  They both need to be playing every day and Tehan could serve as a pinch hitter for either or.  What I would've like the Jays to do is to send down Thames, where he can work on his defence.  And say to Travis like the others before him: "OK clean slate, you keep playing good D and we will stop micro-managing your swing and approach.  If you have any questions OK.  But be the player you are, not what we think you are this week."

China fan - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#240194) #

....the promise that he'd see regular playing time no matter what....

If you have evidence that the Jays promised to keep playing Snider forever -- "no matter what" -- please provide an actual quote from Anthopoulos or Farrell.  As far as I'm aware, they never made such a long-term promise.  And it would be foolhardy, in the extreme, to promise ANY young 23-year-old player that he will be guaranteed a full-time job, indefinitely, month after month, no matter how badly he plays.  Just stop and think for a second -- is it plausible that a major-league team would actually promise a 23-year-old that he will be guaranteed a full-time job "no matter what"?   No, and it didn't happen.  And Snider fully understands that reality -- as his quotes today make clear.   If a young power hitter is performing so badly that he hits only 5 home runs in four months, with only 11 walks in 197 plate appearances, how can the Jays guarantee him a major-league job indefinitely? 

.... see what he can do in 2011....

They did see what he can do in 2011.  And he has posted an OPS of .633 in the majors so far.  I fail to see how all of his problems should always be blamed on someone else, whether it's Cito Gaston or John Farrell or Alex Anthopoulos.  Why not a simpler and more plausible scenario:  he's not quite as ready as we thought he was?  If anything, the Jays and the fans were over-optimistic about him, and now they're facing the reality that he needs longer to develop.  At the age of 23, it's not a sin to be still developing.

.....You can't defend the front office every which way. If this is the case (and that Snider indeed should have been demoted), it was a mistake to bring him back on July 4th.....

I'm not defending the front office every which way.  Quite possibly they did make a mistake in promoting him on July 4.  It might have been better to leave him in Las Vegas for a longer period of time.

....Piling up the pressure on him is exactly what they're doing by sending him down after each callup....

I completely disagree.  He faces more pressure when he flails and fails in front of major-league crowds and major-league players.  Why is it "pressure" for him to go to Las Vegas?  It's still baseball.  It's the same game, but with smaller crowds and lower expectations.

Waveburner - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#240195) #

So AA is the king of patience promoting Lawrie, but the Jays are seriously considering calling up Alvarez? Did the team not watch a two-pitch flamethrower with questionable command get called up straight from AA and fall apart? Was the Drabek thing that long ago? Every scout agrees right now that Alvarez is bullpen material until he figures out a third pitch. He needs time even more so than Drabek needed time.

This just baffles me. No consistency in terms of developement. I mean are they just going to watch all their pitching prospects jump straight from AA to the Majors until they get out of Vegas? If so, then getting out of Vegas needs to literally become Anthopolous's number one priority, because that is just playing with fire. Sure hope this Alvarez talk doesn't pan out. He needs a full year at AAA. It would be downright silly to rush your best power arm when you have a capable starter in your bullpen like Litsch. 

Dave Rutt - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:09 AM EDT (#240196) #
Anyone know how to pronounce Lawrie? I've been saying Laurie in my head, but I've heard a lot of Lowrie and I suppose Law-rie is possible too.
TheBunk - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:32 AM EDT (#240197) #
Calm down, Alvarez hasn't been called up so it doesn't point to any consistency issues.

How do you know all scouts agree?
katman - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:35 AM EDT (#240198) #
"Every scout agrees right now that Alvarez is bullpen material until he figures out a third pitch."

As it happens, we desperately need bullpen material. Perhaps Mr. Alvarez would like to try closing games or acting as a set up guy for a bit up here, and see how he likes it, and how he does?

Worst thing that happens is we burn an option, and he goes back to AA knowing exactly what he needs to work on. Best? We discover Naftali Feliz north, and can start building a real bullpen. Watching Papelbon and Broxton this year doesn't fill me with the urge to sign them as free agents...
hypobole - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:45 AM EDT (#240199) #
What's wrong with calling up a not-quite- polished pitcher for a couple of late season starts?  Do you honestly beleive the few late season starts Drabek made were the cause of his collapse this year? Because if you do, you are probablyin a totally inique position, because I haven't heard anyone else hold that view. .As a matter of fact I recently read KLaw stating more and more AAA is becoming a taxi squad with teams promoting directly from AA,.  Also, Vegas will have a new complex in the near future so the pitching issues there will probably be muted to some extent at least.  
sduguid - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:49 AM EDT (#240200) #
"You can't defend the front office every which way. If this is the case (and that Snider indeed should have been demoted), it was a mistake to bring him back on July 4th."

Indeed, you can't defend the front office every which way. However, it is also unreasonable to be against virtually everything they do. I'm beginning to believe that you have a massive grudge against AA while pining away for the glory days of the JP regime.
I don't fully understand this - the team may have made a few moves I disagree with but it seems fairly clear that there is more good, young talent in place and coming up than there has been in a long time. I for one am extremely pleased with the direction the club is going.
katman - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:50 AM EDT (#240201) #
"For now the Jays have two starter questions, who will replace Villanueva and can Mills hack it in the starting role? "

1. Litsch. No question, and CV needs to stay replaced.

2. Don't know, but I'd give him at least all of August to find out, and possibly raise his value. Drabek is just not ready; I'd rather start Reyes right now, if he was still here. Alvarez has just 2 pitches, and as noted above, I'd like to see him in the bullpen if he comes up. Without Stewart or Zep, we're really thin on people who are ready to be MLB starters right now. And with CV out for a bit, we'll need extra arms in the pen because there's no real long relief guy (using Perez like that would be a waste).

3. I add to the pen by DFAing Teahen.
Timbuck2 - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:52 AM EDT (#240202) #
Every scout agrees right now that Alvarez is bullpen material until he figures out a third pitch.

What?  Can you please provide a link to this information?

By my count he has three pitches already - 94+ Fastball, Good Changeup and good sinker.  This information is straight from his pitching coach - Pete walker:

BB: Henderson Alvarez is another guy you have seen in just a few starts.  He comes with a big reputation and has good stuff.  How does he go through a game and not strike anybody out?

PW: I think that's very unusual, it just did happen but I don't think it will happen very many times.  I know he hasn't had huge strikeout numbers yet, I think they are coming.  He has refined his mechanics and he is attacking the strike zone.  He has a tremendous fastball and he is using his fastball predominantly and I think once he gets more command and control of his breaking stuff you will see the punch outs go up.  He has a very good change-up and it's very unusual for a guy with kind of stuff not to have the strikeouts but I really do think it's coming and I think his sinker is so devestating he gets a lot of guys to look bad and mishit balls but once he estrablishes that breaking ball better the strikeouts will go up.

Check it out

smcs - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 02:26 AM EDT (#240203) #
So AA is the king of patience promoting Lawrie, but the Jays are seriously considering calling up Alvarez? Did the team not watch a two-pitch flamethrower with questionable command get called up straight from AA and fall apart? Was the Drabek thing that long ago? Every scout agrees right now that Alvarez is bullpen material until he figures out a third pitch. He needs time even more so than Drabek needed time.

Something called the "O.K. Plateau" comes into play here. To oversimplify the work of people much smarter than I, once humans learn how to do something effectively, we stop improving and plateau. Henderson Alvarez has been very successful at AA at getting batters out. Simply being told that he has to develop a third pitch might be unhelpful because he gets by without it, or doesn't really rely on it. Throw him into the majors and he might find he needs that third pitch, and that he needs to put in the time and effort to develop it. Giving him two starts at the end of the year might actually really help his development.
92-93 - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 04:37 AM EDT (#240204) #

Indeed, you can't defend the front office every which way. However, it is also unreasonable to be against virtually everything they do. I'm beginning to believe that you have a massive grudge against AA while pining away for the glory days of the JP regime. 

Try reading the thread, because nowhere have I given my opinion about Snider's demotion. It's just tiring coming on here and reading either constant slagging of JP or absolute worship of AA. There's a happy medium in between, where you can recognize the strengths and weaknesses of each one.

If you have evidence that the Jays promised to keep playing Snider forever -- "no matter what" -- please provide an actual quote from Anthopoulos or Farrell.

I was trying to emphasize the fact that when he was called up in July management was saying they were now going to give him an opportunity to play everyday. You take it a little bit literally when you demand for a quote that says that's the case come hell or high water, even if Snider went 0/100. For the rational readers out there, here's the quote from the National Post, July 4th - If Snider struggles again but sticks with his newly repaired swing, “we have to stick with him,” Farrell said. A month later he gets sent down.

I fail to see how all of his problems should always be blamed on someone else, whether it's Cito Gaston or John Farrell or Alex Anthopoulos.

Not sure why you've moved to creating straw men arguments now. Nobody said any of those things. It's Travis Snider's fault he hasn't hit. It's management's fault they haven't used a non-contending season to see what Snider can do with 600+ PA.

Why is it "pressure" for him to go to Las Vegas?

The pressure comes from Snider knowing every time he's called up that if he doesn't instantly produce at an above average level, he's going to be sent down, no matter what he's told by the manager when he's called up (see above).

It's really tough to hit in the major leagues, and certainly at the level we hope Travis may be able to hit at one day. If the only way for him to earn an everyday job is to hit the ground running and maintain an .800+ OPS the whole way, he may never be given the proper chance. I certainly hope Lawrie isn't treated with the same expectations and impatience as Snider has been over the years, whether it's been Ricciardi, Gibbons, Gaston, Antho, or Farrell at the helm. I don't have a huge problem with the demotion because either he or Thames had to be the one to go (keeping them both here and DFAing Mark Teahen would have made little sense) and I think that Snider's swing/approach at the plate is really out of whack, but there's definitely a lot of reasons to be skeptical with the way Travis has been handled this year.

Personally I'm in the camp that would have pencilled Snider into LF every day for the next 2 months so I could have a better understanding of what I have in him for 2012. Unless the club trades for an OF in the winter, LF is going to be a position of uncertainty because it's going to be real hard to know what to expect from Snider/Thames. And now that it's being reported that Snider will have an option left for 2012 I expect much of the same jumble next season.

TamRa - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 05:05 AM EDT (#240205) #
Anyone know how to pronounce Lawrie? I've been saying Laurie in my head, but I've heard a lot of Lowrie and I suppose Law-rie is possible too.


Wilner says it's "Lory"
Dave Till - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 07:02 AM EDT (#240206) #
If Mottola can work wonders with Snider, the Jays should bring him up to be the second hitting coach or something. They couldn't officially do that, of course - they'd have to call him a front office adviser or something.

For hoots and giggles, here's my list of the top ten most hyped prospects in Jays history. "Most hyped" is not meant as a putdown of the player - it just means that there was a lot of buzz about him. I will certainly have missed somebody (or somebodies). I haven't included Rule V draftees.

  1. Tony Fernandez
  2. Carlos Delgado
  3. Brett Lawrie
  4. Roy Halladay
  5. Sil Campusano
  6. John Olerud
  7. Dustin McGowan
  8. Shawn Green
  9. Travis Snider
  10. Eddie Zosky

85bluejay - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#240207) #

Nice list Dave Till - brings back memories - because of the Internet age I would put Snider just behind Lawrie - also my memory says Campusano above Halladay but that's quibbling 

Regarding Snider - I have no problems with the Jays handling of Snider this Year (previously yes esp. the 2008 callup) but I get the different viewpoints - of course, can't wait for next season when the - "See, I was right" postings start regardless of Snider's performance.

uglyone - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#240208) #
As for any management comments about snider during his last callup, those were made when we didn't have rasmus, when thames was just getting started, and when EE was in his third month of suckage.

obviously, things have changed since those comments were made.
China fan - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#240209) #

....Personally I'm in the camp that would have pencilled Snider into LF every day for the next 2 months so I could have a better understanding of what I have in him for 2012....

I don't get this argument that a full season in the majors will equate to a prediction of the future.  It's a frequent claim in these parts -- we need to "see what we have" in a player, so therefore we should give him plenty of playing time in the majors.  But lots of players can look good for a season and then decline.  After the 2009 season, the Jays thought they could "see what we have" in Aaron Hill.  Unfortunately the 2009 season was no indication of future performance.  (In fact, if the Jays had begun the search for another good 2B prospect in 2009, they might not be in such a quandary today.)  Similarly, after the 2010 season, people assumed that Snider could be pencilled into the starting lineup for the forseeable future, because he was a 22-year-old who was already hitting as well as the average LF in the AL.  Again, it turned out that his 2010 season was not a guide to the future. 

....If Snider struggles again but sticks with his newly repaired swing, “we have to stick with him,” Farrell said....

This is a partial quote, so I don't trust it.  We don't know what Farrell actually said, or how he defined "struggles."  He also made it conditional on Snider "sticking with his newly repaired swing."  Quite possibly the Jays decided that Snider was struggling more than expected, and he wasn't sticking with his adjusted swing.  Under those circumstances, there can be no guarantee of "sticking with him."

Hodgie - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#240210) #
So AA is the king of patience promoting Lawrie, but the Jays are seriously considering calling up Alvarez? Did the team not watch a two-pitch flamethrower with questionable command get called up straight from AA and fall apart? Was the Drabek thing that long ago? Every scout agrees right now that Alvarez is bullpen material until he figures out a third pitch. He needs time even more so than Drabek needed time.

Career Minor League BB/9:
Drabek: 3.6
Alvarez: 1.7

As for any perceived lack of consistency in player development plans, I have absolutely no problem with that so long as there is purpose to each action. Players are individuals and should be treated differently depending upon their individual developmental needs. It is no different than the albeit still new movement in the education system to start tailoring instruction to the specific needs of the child, or at the very least provide enough program alternatives to find one that fits those needs.

Matthew E - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#240212) #
Dave, I think Rob Ducey belongs on that list.
China fan - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#240213) #

One final point about Snider:  I think it's quite reasonable for the Jays to decide after a partial season that he's still not ready for the majors.  There's no rule that you have to give a full season to a player before deciding anything about him.  The Jays didn't need a full season to decide that Juan Rivera and Jo Jo Reyes weren't good enough to keep.  They didn't need a full season to decide that David Cooper and Kyle Drabek weren't ready.  Two or three months (or even a few weeks) can be an adequate sample size for a decision like that.  You don't need a full season of misery by Travis Snider to decide that he needs more time in the minors.

I'm not blindly defending every AA decision, and I like the healthy debate about his decisions, but I also think it's reasonable for AA to adjust to circumstances and revise his thinking about players as he sees their performance.  Nobody should be bound up in fixed preconceptions of a player.  The Jays have to watch them closely, assess them carefully, and make decisions as the situation evolves.

TtD - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#240214) #
A conservative approach doesn't really clash with an Alvarez callup, as is he's a David Price lite style fastball pitcher, great fastball he relies on, changeup that's good and used to setup the fasball, breaking ball he really needs to sharpen up but that already plays at higher levels.  Giving a prospect a taster at MLB level is far different to a full callup, and a few games to end the season can be a good learning tool.  As is, there is no value to sending Alvarez to Vegas, he will learn nothing there, he already has that feel for the strikezone (pitchability o/) that Drabek/Cecil and Mills lacked (and is about the only thing you can learn at Vegas).  His work is on his slider, for which he needs to stick at AA or be at the MLB level.

I'd not be surprised if the Jays give him a few starts to end this season, go to him and say here's what you need to do to come back here next season, and give him a program of training to get that slider right.  If he improves the slider over the winter he'll be up with the Jays, if not he'll be back at New Hampshire to start the season and will have to prove he deserves the call.

Dave Rutt - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#240216) #
With regard to calling Alvarez up, it wouldn't bother me. I don't think a call-up implies the front office thinks Alvarez is ready. I think it's more like "hey, there's a spot open, this kid has had a good season, why not give him a couple starts?" I doubt it would impact his development much at all, negatively or positively, and it would be fun and exciting for him, and he'd go back to the minors for most if not all of 2012.
uglyone - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#240217) #
I'd have no problem with Alvarez getting the callup, but unless they completely blow up I think Litsch and Mills have both clearly earned a shot and should be in the rotation for now. Both of these two (unlike a guy like JoJo) actually have a solid chance of building up some trade value with solid performance down the stretch.

McGowan is the other guy I'd be pretty interested in seeing.
Beyonder - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#240219) #

One final point about Snider:  I think it's quite reasonable for the Jays to decide after a partial season that he's still not ready for the majors. 

Depends on what "partial"  of the season we are talking about.  If we were talking 300 roughly contiguous at bats, I would agree with you.  But 182 at bats, doled out in two widely separated chunks, is not really much of an audition for the guy who (rightly or wrongly) was annointed one of our future stars. 

There's no rule that you have to give a full season to a player before deciding anything about him. 

No one is saying there is a rule.  Just that 182 at bats is not enough.  To me, this year was supposed to be the one where we found out whether Snider's potential what ever going to materialise, and it is disappointing to me that at the end of this season, he will have remained every bit as much of a mystery as he was in spring training.  There's a heavy opportunity cost in sending him down -- much less than the cost of sending Thames down.  Given the prospects coming up, it is going to be more and more difficult to find a window of at bats for Travis. 

The Jays didn't need a full season to decide that Juan Rivera and Jo Jo Reyes weren't good enough to keep. 

No, but those two both got much harder looks, and more consistent playing time, than Snider this year. 

I still love the direction of the team and what AA has done in general, but if this was year was truly about development, and finding out who was going to be part of the team's core going forward and who was not, demoting Snider at this stage is wasting a key opportunity. 

 

 

Kasi - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#240220) #
Until Snider shows the discipline and patience to stick with a repeatable swing he has no business being in the majors and no business claiming a major league spot.

It's like people are thinking that having Snider up here flailing away with that awful swing for 2 more months is going to do anything positive for him or help his development at all. Guess what, it isn't going to do anything more than just destroy his already fragile confidence. Snider is a pretty emotional guy. Trying hard is not his problem, I think the problem with him is trying too hard. He wants to succeed so much, and he presses all the time. 32 K to 1 Walk ratio since he came up is proof enough of that.
TtD - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#240221) #
Mills yes, he's done his work at AAA this season and drastically improved his skills, we need to see what the new Mills can offer in the big leagues.  Litsch though has really shown nothing more this year, so what if we know he's a #4 ceiling type and more often a #5, giving him extra starts isn't going to change that.  By now he's someone you slot in to spot start if you have no-one better to try out.  With Alvarez ready for a taster session it would be an utter waste of an opportunity to run Litsch out again at this time.
hypobole - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#240224) #

No, but those two both got much harder looks, and more consistent playing time, than Snider this year.

Rivera absolutely did NOT get more consistent playing time than Snider.

Beyonder - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#240226) #
Don't see how you can say that.  Rivera got 275 roughly contiguous plate appearances (granted, a game off here and there) -- to Snider's 197, which were bisected by two months in AAA . 
Sister - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#240227) #
As others have noted, I would like to see McGowan.

In fact, I would like to see him in the bullpen and tried out in high-leverage situations with an eye to being a future closer.

Given his injury history I think a move to the bullpen would be most beneficial to his career and to the Jays receiving any future value out of him.

Kasi - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#240228) #
The reason they've leaned for the most part away from that is they don't think the inconsistent nature of using relievers will be kind to his shoulder. Whether that is valid I don't know.
uglyone - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#240229) #
Litsch though has really shown nothing more this year,

this is just not true.

Litsch has shown a dramatic improvement in his one biggest area of weakness prior to this year - strikeouts. After putting up very low K rates of 4.1 and 5.1 his first two years, Jesse is posting a 7.8k/9 this year, and was at 8.5 in his brief stint in AAA. And that stretches right back to spring training, where he was piling up the Ks as well.

That is potentially a key development in his career, and defeinitely has earned him more looks in the rotation, IMO.
Beyonder - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#240230) #

Until Snider shows the discipline and patience to stick with a repeatable swing he has no business being in the majors and no business claiming a major league spot.

According to AA, the swing problems have been fixed, and this demotion is purely performance based. 

Anyway, I guess I just have a hard time accepting that the guy has been on the major league roster for three years now (presumably because we believed he was major league ready), and we are only now identifying problems with his swing.  If he's genuinely having problems with his swing, this could well be due to having been rushed through the minors where proper swing habits could have been developed with more consistent at bats.  Either way, the organization bears some responsibility for mismanaging one of its top prospects.   

hypobole - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#240231) #

Don't see how you can say that.  Rivera got 275 roughly contiguous plate appearances (granted, a game off here and there) -- to Snider's 197, which were bisected by two months in AAA .

I can say it because i actually looked at the game logs for both players. Snider sat twice all the time he was here he was here. . Rivera sat 15 times and 7 other times had a single pinch hit appearance.

Kasi - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#240232) #
According to Ashby Snider's swing has degraded since he came up a month ago. From the little I've seen of highlights of him it does seem like he's all arms once again.

I don't think there were these problems with his swing before. It's that he's tinkered with it and changed it and messed it up. Go look at his swing from 3 years ago and what it is now. It's definitely changed for the worse.
TtD - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#240233) #
Has it made him a better pitcher though in terms of results, not really.  He's still a serviceable #4-#5 rotation filler, the Ks are pretty to look at but he's still giving up runs as his control has deteriorated accordingly.  If anything he was effectively wild in his earlier starts this season, and for a control pitcher that isn't going to work longterm.
uglyone - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#240234) #
I don't think there's any question his swing is completely different than the one he first came up with.

His once powerful home run cut has devolved into some weird slappy reaching swing, and I have no idea why.
Beyonder - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#240236) #
Obviously I don't disagree with you because I can't look at the game logs.  I certainly wasn't suggesting that you hadn't looked at them.  Where we disagree is on what it means to get "consistent" major league playing time.  To me it's clear that Juan's 275 PAs over the course of three months is more consistent than Snider's 197 over the course of four, but I take your point. 
uglyone - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#240237) #
Has it made him a better pitcher though in terms of results, not really.

I think it absolutely has. Up until his last injured start (the one that put him on the DL), he was 4-2 with a 1.35whip and 4.15era, supported by a 7.6k/9 and a 2.3k/bb. That is just plain good.
BlueJayWay - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#240239) #
Yeah, I don't know if I've ever seen a player's swing change so much.  Like Ashby has lamented on the radio, where is the swing from a few years ago?  I remember Snider hitting homeruns in the Metrodome and Yankee Stadium that looked like they were shot out of a cannon.  He had a beautiful, natural uppercut power stroke.  Now it's all loopy, one hand flailing. 
TtD - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#240241) #
It's just plain serviceable, rather than good.  Litsch is an above average #5, solid #4 starter in the big leagues, that's a valuable asset to have around and i'd love to hold onto him if he can stay healthy but I don't see that as deserving of holding back Alvarez, who I believe is already good enough to be a solid #4 starter, and has a much higher ceiling.  Given comparitive current skillset i'm eager to see the Jays give a shot to the guy who has drastically improved this year as a carrot to spur him on to further improvement.  Should that be prior to September, maybe not, the AA playoffs are coming up and can also be a good experience, but come September I want to see Alvarez and his ups and downs more than I want to see Litsch holding down the fort as competently as he always does
Chuck - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#240242) #

Obviously I don't disagree with you because I can't look at the game logs.

If the issue is that you don't know where to find them, click here.

Beyonder - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#240243) #
Thanks Chuck.  I can find them -- I was trying to make the point (inarticulately now that I look again at that sentence) that the source of the disagreement with hyperbole was not my inability to use the internet.  It was because we disagreed about what 'consistent' playing time means.
DiscoDave - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#240244) #
What is the possibility of the Halladay treatment for Snider? Is it even possible to shuttle him back to A ball to rebuild his old swing and confidence, then earn his way up the levels.
Chuck - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#240245) #

but come September I want to see Alvarez and his ups and downs more than I want to see Litsch holding down the fort as competently as he always does

I see your position, but I think there's also an argument to be made on behalf of Litsch.

His career ERA+ is 103. The average starter is around 95. This does indeed suggest a good deal of competence (the very term you used). I don't think anyone believes he has ace material, but he certainly has shown the ability to warrant a mid-rotation slot. His issue has been health (and perhaps fitness) so a strategy of getting him on the mound, now that he's apparently healthy, and seeing if he can stay healthy is not without merit. I'd like to see him take a regular turn for the balance of the season. Can he go the next 7 weeks without missing a start?

If Litsch could put up a 30 GS/180 IP/4.50 ERA season in 2012 (the ability is there, is the health/stamina?), that would have value. I don't think he'll ever be a world beater, but he could become a reliable mid-rotation starter. To do this, though, he needs to pitch. Given Villaneuva's recent troubles, Litsch could well slot in for him moving forward.

Chuck - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#240246) #

What is the possibility of the Halladay treatment for Snider?

That sounds awfully rash. Halladay's level of terribleness was historic. He needed to relearn how to pitch to leverage his physical talents, not just tweak his technique.

Snider is nowhere near as broken. His struggles have been dealing with good pitching. Having him beat up on crummy pitching isn't going to help.

Spifficus - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#240247) #
For me, Snider has had more pitch selection issues than mechanical issues during this stretch. He's seemingly constantly swinging at breaking balls (and with a fastball cut), which would leave him out front. It's hard to have a swing look pretty when you're trying to keep the bat in the zone beyond the realm of possibility just to foul off a pitch you shouldn't be swinging at anyway.
Jonny German - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#240248) #
For me the real question with Litsch is simply health. Despite his anemic strikeout rates in 2007 and 2008, he pitched at a #2 starter level in 287 innings those 2 seasons. And now his strikeout rate is way up? Yeah, he's got a lot more ceiling than a #4 starter. And he deserves a chance to show it ahead of a kid with 83 good innings in AA.
TtD - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#240249) #
I should add i'd be happy to see the jays go to a six man rotation for September again, but it's just i'd prioritise Alvarez and Mills over Litsch if given the call.
Ducey - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#240251) #

Depends on what "partial"  of the season we are talking about.  If we were talking 300 roughly contiguous at bats, I would agree with you.  But 182 at bats, doled out in two widely separated chunks, is not really much of an audition for the guy who (rightly or wrongly) was annointed one of our future stars.

Well the future star is stinking it up at a .231/.276/.357 clip with just 11 walks and 55 K's in 48 games.  It is fairly evident to me, even way out here in Alberta, that he cannot handle the low and away pitch and tries to pull everything with his arms.  Pitchers have figured out not to throw him stuff inside but that seems to be all he can handle.  You give him another 100 AB's is he suddenly going to turn the corner?  I doubt it.

If he was roping the ball all over the place and just getting some bad luck, fine, leave him up.  But right now he looks like a AAA player and he should stay there for a long time until he shows he can handle the outside pitch and drive it the other way. 

 

Mike Green - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#240253) #
I wouldn't mind Alvarez getting some major league work this year, but personally I would prefer if it was out of the bullpen.  His career high for a season is 124 IP, and he has thrown 91 innings so far this year. 
chips - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#240254) #

Here is Snider's M.O. on most of his recent at bats. Take or foul off first pitch strike. Get into a pitcher's count with 2 strikes. Swing and miss on outside breaking ball. That would be the scouting book on Snider. He needed to adjust and has yet to do so. Also, has anyone else noticed Aaron Hill's at bats. He is fouling off good hittable pitches and you can see him getting frustrated at missing those pitches. I know he got a bloop single to centre yesterday, but when was the last time he has squared up on a ball consistantly?

Mick Doherty - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#240255) #

And I still remember when Phil Niekro retired. He was the last major leaguer that was older than me.
 

Personally, I am Jamie Moyer's biggest fan, for exactly that reason. He says he might pitch 'til he's 50? I say shoot for 60!

92-93 - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#240256) #
Give it up for Hill - at least he's been consistently bad and hasn't given the front office anything to think about for 2012. I doubt even TamRa can isolate a 2 week stretch in his season where he posted a .750+ OPS. A month ago I still thought that offering him arbitration and being on the hook for 5-6m wasn't the end of the world for a middle infielder with offensive upside and a decent glove, but at this point that ship has sailed if they want to compete in '12.
uglyone - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#240257) #
The only thing that really bugs me about the way they've dealt with Snider this year is his most recent callup. I don't think he was ready for a callup yet, though he was making some nice strides down there. He should have stayed down there longer until he was consistently mashing the ball. But when they called him up, he had only had a few very good (but not great) weeks after a month+ of serious struggles even at that level.

I think he was making clear progress down there and then they jumped the gun with his recall. I want to seem him legitimately mashing the ball again (and I mean 1.000+ops in vegas minimum) before he gets called up again.
uglyone - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#240258) #
Give it up for Hill - at least he's been consistently bad and hasn't given the front office anything to think about for 2012. I doubt even TamRa can isolate a 2 week stretch in his season where he posted a .750+ OPS.

heheheh.
Beyonder - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#240259) #

Well the future star is stinking it up at a .231/.276/.357 clip with just 11 walks and 55 K's in 48 games.  It is fairly evident to me, even way out here in Alberta, that he cannot handle the low and away pitch and tries to pull everything with his arms.  Pitchers have figured out not to throw him stuff inside but that seems to be all he can handle.  You give him another 100 AB's is he suddenly going to turn the corner?  I doubt it.

Fine, but this wasn't a particularly popular sentiment even 12 games ago, coming off the Seattle series.  At that point in the space of three weeks Travis had moved his batting average up from .184 to .245, and had two 5 rbi games.  So if the swing is broken at all, it hasn't been broken for very long.  In answer to your rhetorical question, a lot can happen in a hundred at bats.  It took far less than that for Travis to go from hero to goat IMO.

It's amazing how fast the swing doctors come out of the woodwork after such a relatively short run of poor performance -- especially when the team itself is saying there are no longer any problems with Travis's swing.  For the record, despite the recent poor play, he's batting .287 since the call up. 

85bluejay - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#240261) #
A point of clarification, AA mentioned in his interview with Jeff Blair that Snider has another option year - checking with cots, Snider has been optioned in 3 seasons but does not yet have 5 full seasons of professional baseball (short season doesn't count) 2007-11 - so he is eligible for a 4th option year (2012).
Timbuck2 - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#240262) #
Yeah, I don't know if I've ever seen a player's swing change so much.  Like Ashby has lamented on the radio, where is the swing from a few years ago?  I remember Snider hitting homeruns in the Metrodome and Yankee Stadium that looked like they were shot out of a cannon.  He had a beautiful, natural uppercut power stroke.  Now it's all loopy, one hand flailing.

Then you obviously never saw Cal Ripken play.  I swear that guy completely changed his swing from month to month.  Sometimes he'd look like Mickey Tettleton (similar to Even Longoria for modern comparison), others he'd look like Tony Fernandez, and the rest of the time he just seemed to create his own.  Sometimes he'd even change his stance and swing mid game if just wasn't feeling it that day.  Whatever worked he kept doing until the magic had worn off then he'd try something else again....
jgadfly - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#240264) #

"...That is potentially a key development in his (Litsch) career, and definitely has earned him more looks in the rotation, IMO." ... Uglyone

       I understand your logic and also believe that Litsch, like Villanueva, has the ability to be a backend starter on this team but not on the "above average" team that will be competing next year with the Yankee$ and Red $ox.  Litsch's first two years were checkered with numerous baserunners and he would find an extra intensity to, in most cases, deal with them . He had a certain tenacity that would kick-in in pressure situations that would allow him to extricate himself from his self-created predicaments. He was and is a fighter on the mound with runners on base.  He has also reached 95 on the radar gun (although perhaps not recently) and some of his pitches have excellent movement which lead to numerous groundballs. Given the number of average arms in the bullpen and that some of them have achieved above average results in the past with less ability and "stuff" than Litsch posesses, I believe that he has the ability and mindset to be an "above average" reliever and could be sucessful in any of the three roles (long, setup or closer). The degree of success and which role needs to be ascertained, the sooner, the better.

Paul D - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#240265) #
Litsch has been better than recent AJ Burnett and all the Sox 3-5 starters.  You can have an above average team with Litsch a your 5th starter.
TamRa - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#240266) #
I doubt even TamRa can isolate a 2 week stretch in his season where he posted a .750+ OPS.

Five weeks actually.

4/15 - 5/20: .794

Which was what fueled my late may/early June comments that he'd only been bad for two weeks of 2011 - can't really say that anymore. Since that time it's under .600



Ron - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#240267) #
Lawrie is batting 9th tonight.

Here's the batting order:

Escobar
Thames
Bautista
Lind
Encarnacion
Rasmus
Hill
Arencibia
Lawrie


Sano - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#240268) #

Re: Snider- For me, it's really quite simple.  He hasn't proved he can hack major league pitching and obviously (no matter what AA/Farrell say) has some swing issues.  He's not the masher that he should be right now.  The best place to fix that and get into a good hitting stroke and earn his promotion is at LV.  I want the Jays to leave him there until he's had a consistent streak of hitting for power and average.  Make him barge the door down to get back up here. If that means Loewen comes up instead of him when a spot opens on the roster, so be it. 

Spifficus - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#240269) #
Snider's out-of-zone swing % over the last 14 days is 44.9%. Accordingly, nobody's throwing him strikes (32.9%). Pitch 'selection' is killing him.
92-93 - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#240270) #
If you're going to make a point of clarification it behooves you to get it right. Snider WILL have 5 full seasons of pro baseball after 2011 because 2007-2011 = 5 seasons. He is not eligible for a 4th option; he still has a 3rd one because options were only burned in 2009 and 2011.
sam - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#240271) #
I prefer this order for the time being.

Escobar
Rasmus
Bautista
Lind
Encarnacion
Thames
Hill
Arencibia
Lawrie

Down the road, maybe Spring Training 2012

Escobar
Rasmus
Bautista
Lind
Lawrie
Thames/Snider
Arencibia
Thames/Snider
Hechavarria

I like Rasmus' ability to see pitches and get on base higher in the order. For me, Thames possesses the ability to drive in runs more so than Rasmus.

92-93 - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#240272) #

Five weeks actually. 4/15 - 5/20: .794

While I had no doubt that you'd try, this one is bad even for you TamRa. That wasn't 5 weeks - it was 16 games spread over 5 weeks. I doubt Hill has put up a .750 OPS over a 2 week stretch all year (and if he has, it's been very shortlived, and the overall point of his consistent suckitude stands).

TamRa - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#240273) #
On Snider:

while I want him here, and successful, as much as anyone - AA makes a solid point about the fact that we all had pretty similar conversations about Adam Lind. Or you can look at Alex Gordon or others. Which is to say, the hand-wringing is pretty over-wrought.

On Litsch:

while I agree he could be a just fine #5 - yes, even on a contending team in this division, consider the 2010 Tampa Bay Rays rotation:

Price - 144
Garza - 100
Shields - 75
Niemann - 89
Davis  - 96

That rotation was for a team that won 96 games and the AL East title.

Jesse's ERA+ this year is better than two of those. and his career number is better than 4 of those.

So the idea that we are a second-division team with him in the rotation is complete nonsense.

That said, if things go well he won't be among the five best options which provokes me to wonder - might he be the second coming of Casey Janssen?


TamRa - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#240274) #
While I had no doubt that you'd try,

Duh, ya think? At least I was up-front enough to post the results and not just pretend to not see. How many here are going to get called out and just slink away?

this one is bad even for you

Why do these exchanges have to be personal? what is it about me that rubs some of you so very wrong that you can't just talk about the game instead of taking pot-shots?

it was 16 games spread over 5 weeks.


Doh! I forgot about the injury, just looked at the date range. you're right of course - still 16 games IS more than two weeks worth - even though they didn't all occur within two weeks on the calendar. He doesn't, as far as I can tell, have any 2 week claendar stretch of even .700, let alone .750

and the overall point of his consistent suckitude stands

Did I dispute this? In fact, did i not basically agree to it by saying i can't defend him now as i did for a while? Do you really expect someone to say "no wait he doesn't REALLY suck" at this point?

why don't you go ahead and tell us Morrow has a high strikeout rate and Rauch gives up homers and Bautista is a good hitter while you are at it?

James W - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#240275) #
Hill didn't play any games between April 19 and May 8.

From looking at the game log, I thought something around his May 15th game would work. From May 15-May 29, he had a .760 OPS. But that's one day more than two weeks. Of course, May 15-28, and May 16-29 produce an OPS below .750.

92-93 - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#240276) #
I wasn't calling you out. I was saying that even someone with your master-of-arbitrary-end-points ability couldn't isolate a two week stretch where Hill has performed well. I'm not sure why you have to turn everything into your own personal matter here. I was trying to include you in the discussion, and I apologize for that. Perhaps I would just be better off ignoring everything you write, as you so often suggest to the people who actually call you out.
92-93 - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#240277) #
I pretty much agree entirely with Sam's lineups, both current and future. The changes I'd make are batting Arencibia in front of Hill and for next year's lineup I'd add Encarnacion to the 8th spot platoon. Of course the bigger issue is who plays, not where they hit.
uglyone - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#240278) #
heheh. tamray nailed you but good!

for a handful of games starting at arbitray endpoints, there was a time when Hill DID put up a .750+ops!

but not on the "above average" team that will be competing next year with the Yankee$ and Red $ox.

I think you are probably overrating the 3-5 starters on those two teams.
hypobole - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#240279) #

Why do these exchanges have to be personal? what is it about me that rubs some of you so very wrong that you can't just talk about the game instead of taking pot-shots?

Face it Tamra, you're too upbeat, too often.

You overly attempt to deduce WHY FO moves are made, rather than simply second-guessing each and every one.

Finally, you simply fail to spew suffient vitiol.

Hope this helps.


 

85bluejay - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#240280) #
I do believe Snider spent time in the minors in 2009 - you have to use an option to send him down even if it's at spring training - I think when the Jays optioned him earlier this year he had not yet reached 5 full seasons of pro. baseball.
85bluejay - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#240281) #
sorry,I meant to say Snider has spent time in the minors in 2009/2010/2011 - that's 3 options
DaveB - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#240282) #
Litsch's career numbers are skewed by his pre-injury performance in 2007-08. Those IP account for about 75 per cent of his career total. Since then he's pitched 106 less effective innings while recovering from injuries to his right hip, right forearm, right elbow and right shoulder. He's not the same pitcher. As jgadfly said, the sooner he moves to the bullpen, the better.
uglyone - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#240283) #
On the contrary, Litsch's career numbers are clearly skewed by the two injury ruined 2009 and 2010 seasons, where he managed 55.2ip of 6.31era.

This year, he's not only back to what he was before, but he's better, aside from a higher than normal HR/FB rate.
85bluejay - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#240284) #
Perhaps you are correct, maybe all his at bats in 2010 was on rehab - my apologies  
China fan - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#240285) #

On the Litsch issue:  keep in mind that the Jays seem determined to take a good look at him as a reliever.  That plan might be postponed now, as a result of Villanueva's injury, especially if Mills fails to seize his rotation oppportunity.  But long-term, the Jays seem to like Litsch as a bullpen guy.  This, I assume, is because of AA's confidence in young prospects such as Alvarez and Drabek, plus possibly McGowan.  There might be little room for Litsch by 2013, so they prefer to begin his transition now.  Personally, I agree with those who say that Litsch would be a perfectly adequate 4th or 5th starter in the rotation, but -- for what it's worth -- the Jays seem to prefer him in the bullpen, as they did too with Rzepcyznski.  They might have decided that his stuff works better in short bursts, especially with his rising K rate.

On the Snider issue:  the forgotten man in the debate is Eric Thames.  He's been slumping in recent weeks, yet overall he has much better numbers that Snider this year, both in the majors and in Las Vegas.  His major-league OPS is .778, despite the slump, which is not bad for a 24-year-old rookie.  His OPS at Las Vegas was 1.033 which is pretty darn good even for the PCL.  As for the slump:  major-league pitchers may have discovered Thames' weaknesses and they're exploiting it now.  As AA often says, the key question is what happens after the pitchers adjust. Can the hitter respond to the adjustment?  Can Thames adjust to the tougher pitching and find a way to regain his hitting?  This is a key test, and Thames deserves a few more weeks to see if he can make the adjustment.  If he responds well, he could be the regular LF in 2012.

uglyone - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#240286) #
Interestingly, Thames is back in the 2-spot tonight with Colby in the 6-hole.

Personally I don't think thames should ever be taken out of the 2-hole because, well, you just don't mess with a hot streak. So I like that he's back there, but it might have already messed with the hot streak.

What it tells me, though, is that they're trying to get Thames back hitting again....which is good, but is also removing any excuses he has for poor performance.....which IMO indicates that him keeping his spot over Snider is not secure in the least, and dependant on him continuing to perform at a high level.
China fan - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#240288) #
I agree that Thames will have to keep proving himself if he wants to stay up.  Anthopoulos and Farrell have made it clear that the Jays are now a meritocracy, where players must earn their playing time.   (Which doesn't explain Hill or Teahen, of course.....)
DaveB - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#240290) #
This year, he's not only back to what he was before, but he's better, aside from a higher than normal HR/FB rate.

He lasted eight starts this year before the shoulder injury. He lasted two starts in 09, nine starts in 2010 between TJ recovery and the next injury. There's a pattern here much more relevant than 45 innings before the latest injury.
dalimon5 - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#240291) #
TamRa, 92-93. You're both peppering your statements with accusations to one another (as am I right now, ironically). Let's try to steer clear of this to keep the site focused:

Any more news on the intention of FO to pluck Hanley from FLA?

What does Bautista have to do to win the MVP vote?

On Snider - If he annihilates AAA once again then Jays will hold him there until he is absolutely knocking on the door Lawrie style and hope he transitions, finally into an ML all star. If it gets too crowded in the Toronto OF and Snider is hitting well anyways in AAA, he will be packaged with a stud plus solid prospect for an A caliber player in the off season. My opinion.

And finally, why is Lawrie hyped to the point that I need to read about his uncanny "upper body definition at the age of 7" in the Globe and Mail? A little overblown...

TamRa - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#240293) #
I wasn't calling you out. I was saying that even someone with your master-of-arbitrary-end-points ability couldn't isolate a two week stretch where Hill has performed well. I'm not sure why you have to turn everything into your own personal matter here. I was trying to include you in the discussion, and I apologize for that. Perhaps I would just be better off ignoring everything you write, as you so often suggest to the people who actually call you out.

Apparently I took "even for you" wrong. It's absolutely true that i do have more to say about (so-called) Arbitrary End Points than pretty much anyone ever anywhere.

But I didn't recognize that was what you meant - sorry to be touchy. My fault.

I guess i was just too used to the passion normally displayed in anti-Hil commentary here, looking back, it's easy to see what you meant.
Paul D - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#240294) #

According to mlbtraderumors, the Jays have signed Chad Gaudin.  I'm assuming for bullpen help.

TamRa - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#240296) #
the Vegas announcer mentioned he was in Vegas the other night (Tuesday?) so i don't know if they see him as an option in Toronto or not.



grjas - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#240298) #
It's hardly a surprise that Snider was demoted with Rasmus now on board, Thames looking solid (despite recent slump), Bautista back in the outfield and Davis as a back up and late inning weapon. Even with Hill at second, this line up looks strong and set. The issue is pitching. Worst group of closers in 25 years, bullpen depth diminished from the Rasmus deal and if we are lucky, only 3 solid starters. Wouldn't trouble me a bit to see Snider packaged in the offseason for some pitching help.
TamRa - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#240302) #
if we are lucky, only 3 solid starters.

Huh? If we are UNlucky we only have three solid starters going forward.

if we are lucky we have more than we have room for.

Romero  - very solid. Only injury or inexplicable regression (bad luck) change that
Morrow - very solid. Still needs a tic of "results matching stuff" but solid
Cecil - if you are lucky he consolidates his gains and he's solid for his role
McGowan - if we are lucky his arm holds up and we have much better than a #4 quality guy here.
Drabek - if we are lucky he sheads his recent difficulty and finds a grove

(if we are UNlucky we still have two solid guys there and you could lose 2 of 3 and still have three solid starters)

Listch - a reasonable 5th starter on the vast majority of major league staffs. if we are lucky his health doesn't interfere.
Alvarez - if we are lucky he can advance quickly to the majors without losing his momentum
Villaneuva  - if we are lucky he can do over a full season what he did for the first half this year with more endurance

Worst group of closers in 25 years


Not sure what you mean by group - there was really just the two major candidates. Here's a strange, coming into tonight, here are those two candidates over the same period of time:

5/31 - 8/4
FF: 20 IP, 23 H, 7 ER, 6 BB, 21 K, 3.15 ERA, .720 OOPS
JR: 26 IP, 33 H, 14 ER, 5 BB, 18 K, 4.85 ERA, .844 OOPS

And if you take two appearances, totaling 1/3 IP from Frankie you take away 5 of those 7 ER

Guess which one pitched the ninth tonight?

This is the ONE place I'm comfortable going ahead and criticizing Farrell - he had to see for himself that Dotel couldn't get lefties out - now apparently he's determined to see for himself that Rauch isn't a closer.

Jonny German - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#240306) #
Drabek - if we are lucky he sheads his recent difficulty and finds a grove

Hope it's peaches. Could be lemons.
Alex Obal - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#240308) #
I'd settle for Lefty.
92-93 - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#240309) #
Francisco has looked excellent since his blowup a month ago @ CLE and his removal from the closer's role. Could be time to try him again back there.
Chuck - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#240311) #

I'd settle for Lefty.

Or China.

 

smcs - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#240312) #
Guess which one pitched the ninth tonight?

Does it matter? They both came in at the start of an inning with a 2 run lead. Does it matter what order they came out in? It's not like Rauch came in with a vastly higher leverage than Francisco. I'd be slightly more concerned that with 1 out, runners on 1st and 2nd, in a 1 run game, they turned to Perez and Litsch in back to back innings. I'm guessing Camp and/or Janssen would have been used had they not both gone long against the Rays. Forget the Closer role, bring back the Fireman role.
Mylegacy - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#240313) #

DiscoDave - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#240316) #
+1 to the fireman role.

Re: Snider
Moving to the lower levels of minor ball might be the way to fix his swing/pitch selection. Either way leave him down until he forces your hand to promote him.
Thomas - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#240318) #
Guess which one pitched the ninth tonight?

As has already been pointed out, the order in which the pitchers pitched tonight was really irrelevant. It could be a benefit if Farrell showed any inclination to be more flexible with his use of Francisco, but he seems to have fallen into a steady pattern of using them for the 8th and 9th regardless.

Also, it's a bit unfair to bring it up tonight. I don't think it's fair to place it on Wakamatsu or expect him to change the established order.

TamRa - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 05:57 AM EDT (#240322) #
Well yeah, i have to acknowledge that Wakamtsu was probably bound by what had been established - the question is why is it established?

as for the larger discussion of when to best use your best pitchers - it's pretty academic because Farrell is clearly demonstrating himself to be a slave to the "classic closer" model - we can debate the silliness of that concept all we want but it's not going to change so I'm just talking within the context of that reality.

Still, the ejection is a fair point - I'd let it slip my mind that he was out of the game.


grjas - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#240326) #
Worst group of closers in 25 years...Not sure what you mean by group - there was really just the two major candidates.

This article gives a good summary of the issue- 57% success rate on close opportunities with 8 relievers having at least one opp:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2011/07/11/carson_first_half/

Huh? If we are UNlucky we only have three solid starters going forward.
I hope you are right. But neither Morrow or Cecil have yet shown consistency over the last two years. Hopefully (ie with luck!) they continue their current run. McGowan would be a great story, but ... And Drabek is a work in progress. Clearly potential, but not yet proven

So yes I agree it could all come together. On the other hand,  we could also have a serious injury to one or two of our top 3 (which has happened more than a few times in the last 10 years). We need more depth at pitching if we are to have a good shot at Boston and NY. And I'd sacrifice a Snider or a Thames (in a package) to get it.
China fan - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#240327) #
Mylegacy is so excited by Lawrie's debut that he has been rendered speechless.
Gerry - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#240330) #
Mylegacy is so excited by Lawrie's debut that he has been rendered speechless.

Or self-induced unconsciousness.

BlueJayWay - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#240332) #
Well, Lawrie came pretty much as advertised.  Great stick, the glove....the less said the better.  He really LOOKS like a hitter.  I hope Sickel's evaluation & projection of his D is correct, rather than the consensus of pretty much everybody else.
Dave Till - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#240338) #
I sometimes wonder whether Buck and Pat are watching the same game I am. They went on, all game, about how Lawrie looked so relaxed out there - presumably because he didn't seem overawed by his teammates. But his fielding was clearly affected by his nerves - he handled every grounder hit his way as if it were a live grenade. He'll settle down.

I noticed the same thing about Lawrie yesterday that I did in spring training - he seems so intense and focused. He reminds me of  Pete Rose or George Brett. If he plays too hard, he might get himself frequently injured - and the Josh Phelps Trail Of Tears is always a possibility if he doesn't learn to adjust - but at this point he looks like he's going to be a big, big star. When you're the best hitter in the PCL at 21, the sky does seem to be the limit, doesn't it?

As for his alleged arrogance - I am assuming that Jose Bautista and/or a diet of really nasty and humbling low outside breaking pitches will take care of that. As long as he is willing to learn, and isn't annoying his teammates, all will be well. He does have the classic Jock Face, though.

92-93 - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#240340) #
I hope Lawrie starts pretty much everyday at 3B the rest of the way so the team has 2 months of games to decide whether it's worth trying to keep Lawrie at 3B for the long-run. With Bautista signed through 2015 I remain unconvinced Lawrie's the best option for the hot corner going forward.
Anders - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#240341) #
If one wants to be especially charitable to Lawrie, it seems like the two balls that he made errors on were relatively tough in between hops. Still a major league third baseman has to make those plays 9 out of 10 times, and after his second error he made a low throw on a double play feed to second.

Offensively, he seemed to have a great eye, and hit the ball pretty hard. I was impressed.

Shane - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#240344) #

 "...and the Josh Phelps Trail Of Tears is always a possibility if he doesn't learn to adjust"

Mmm. Great term. Phelps and Hinske looking so great and then going to crap so quickly, killed it for me. There were so fun to watch hit, when they could do so. It looked so good there for about 45 minutes or something. In comes Koskie, Hillenbrands, Glaus', Eckstein's, etc. barf.

Chuck - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#240346) #

Phelps and Hinske looking so great and then going to crap so quickly

A notable difference between Phelps/Hinske and Lawrie is age. Hinske was 24/25 during his rookie season. Phelps had his abbreviated rookie season at age 24 and was a regular at age 25.

Lawrie is only 21. Huge, huge difference. A Trail of Tears is certainly possible, but much less likely.

Matthew E - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#240347) #
In comes Koskie, Hillenbrands, Glaus', Eckstein's, etc.

Well, don't put Glaus in there with the rest of those guys. Glaus played quite well for Toronto.
Shane - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#240349) #

Well, don't put Glaus in there with the rest of those guys. Glaus played quite well for Toronto.

Ya, I didn't mean performance stuff so much as, you know the whole thing with having a new GM come in, new era, all younger exciting players with more on the way (Russ Adams etc), cutting edge fun blah blah, instead of patch work piecing together clubs via a lot of free agency etc, trading for veterans. Going no where.

 

bpoz - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#240352) #
I hope it is true that Snider does have 1 option remaining. He definitely burned his 2011 option 201ABs,175ABs in 2009, but the 99ABs in 2010 could be injury rehab which do not count in options usage. We could need the 3rd option for 2012. Thames did not burn his 2011 option, they can be valuable as the OF is crowded. So sending Snider down would be my choice.

43SVO, 19BS and 24SV. I agree that is terrible. AA says that he will try to get 2 potential closers. More than likely it will be the same type like Dotel, Fraser, Rauch & FF. There may not be a lot of elite closers around and that is what we desperately need as a key part to a winning team. All our guys including Fraser & Dotel seem to blow 30-50% of the saves over their careers. So this is going to be a hard piece to add. Anyone with more research please help.

K Gregg has blown about 20% Sv over his career. M Rivera has blown about 10% over his career. Also M Rivera replaced John Wettland as the closer and they won a WS with Wettland.
Joe Carter hit a Hr against Mitch Williams, I don't know his success rate but maybe he had success striking out 3 before he walked 4.

I now feel that there may be something to that closer mentality. But what??
Mike D - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#240354) #
Well, don't put Glaus in there with the rest of those guys.

Hillenbrand also played well for Toronto.  Hillenbrand and, frankly, Eckstein played at or near their best (such as it was) as Jays.
TamRa - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#240359) #
So yes I agree it could all come together. On the other hand,  we could also have a serious injury to one or two of our top 3 (which has happened more than a few times in the last 10 years).

and happens to our rivals too (TB's vodoo rotation excepted)

Look at Boston: Lackey unexpectedly goes to seed, Matsuzaka needs TJ, now Buchholz with a back injury and out for the year.

what do they replace them with? Guys who would normally not be major league starters, let alone Red Sox starters.

NY entered the season with two re-treads who had to shock the world to be useful - yes they did, of course, but there are guys who struggled to get a job in the majors, not the sort of guys you trade a Snider or Thames to get.


We need more depth at pitching if we are to have a good shot at Boston and NY. And I'd sacrifice a Snider or a Thames (in a package) to get it.

More depth? sure. Go out and get a Slowey if you can, that type of guy. I'm all for that. what i was arguing against (which maybe wasn't what you were advocating?) was spending 70 million or more for five years of someone like Wilson or Jackson.

Depth like Slowey or whoever is not what you trade a Thames for, it's more like what you trade 2 or 3 like Jenkins or a Cooper for.
AWeb - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#240360) #
You have to be careful looking at BS percentages for guys who don't always close - any outing that could theoretically end up a save if they finish the game is a blown save if the lead is given up (7th inning, 8th inning, etc). You'd have to go through game logs to get an accurate outlook on actual save percentages for anyone, to see if they blew it in the ninth inning (the modern save). But yes, this bullpen has a frightening tendency to only blow it late, after holding the line for several innings. The next closer could come from anywhere though, there's a short list of good free agent closer contracts (Ryan's wasn't one of the worst, at least he was good for two years).
ayjackson - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#240361) #
Snider seems to have gone home for the weekend instead of to Vegas.

Curious?
TamRa - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#240362) #
I believe they have three days to report and a side trip home is not unusual.


hypobole - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#240363) #

Players being sent down need the three days because it's a long bus ride to Vegas.

BlueJayWay - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#240371) #
Morrow last night: 7.2 ip, 4 hits, 1 bb, 6 k, SIX runs.  Yeah 3 unearned but still.  No runners LOB.

Last night was a little clinic on how Morrow has great stuff and has yet to live fully up to it.  I fear as time goes on Morrow will always be one of those pitchers who always comes in worse than the peripheral stats would suggest. 

Mylegacy - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#240372) #
BJW why?

'Cause Escobar is going to make an error that leads to 3 unearned runs each game? Actually - BJW I guess that does explain it. Just this question: "Does Escobar understand the role he'll have to play every Morrow start?"

Me, I know it's early - but I think I'll have a wee dram of Scotland's finest.

92-93 - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#240373) #
Yunel Escobar's error doesn't give Brandon Morrow a license to serve up 3 run HRs. Yesterday was a team loss, plenty of players performed poorly.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#240374) #
The point was not the Escobar error, but rather the three run homerun he gave up two hitters after.  Errors will happen, but Morrow has seemingly little ability to limit damage.  Until he can figure out a way not to consistently melt down with runners on base (.269/.330/.452 w/ runners on, .212/.289/.286 with none) then he's not going to take that next step.  It's frustrating watch him dominate for seemingly 90% every start, and still manage to give up at least 3-5 runs before it's said and done.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#240375) #
Morrow is having a good year (low HR rate, WHIP continuing to decrease, improved BB/9 IP, strong K/BB/IP ratio), and he was outstanding for the most part last night. Remember how awful his control was when he first came to Toronto? He's so much better now.

He probably should have been throwing sliders in the dirt to Jones, but the FB away wasn't a bad pitch. Jones put a great opposite-field swing on it.

Doubtful that Escobar would have been able to turn two. He should have taken the sure out. But hey, errors happen. Overall, Yunel has been great on D this year.

Lawrie looks like a potential All-Star. I expect him to get a lot of off-speed stuff, a lot of pitches away. We'll see how well he controls the zone.
92-93 - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#240377) #
Since hitting a HR in 4 straight games June 14-17, Adam Lind is hitting .212/.266/.300 in 184 PA.
Flex - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#240397) #
You look at this team in total, and you have to think that Anthopoulos will, or should, focus almost exclusively on the pitching staff in the off season. The team ranks 6th in MLB in runs scored, and 24th in runs allowed. Anthopoulos has improved the team in two vital positions in the last few days, centre and 3b, so it already has the potential to improve on the offensive numbers next year. He has no obvious dead zones except at 2nd. LF and DH are potential areas of improvement, but he could afford to bide his time on those.

On the other hand, both the rotation and the bullpen could really use a stud. I think that's his area of focus.
Matthew E - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#240399) #
Obviously the bullpen is going to need to be repopulated. But you also have to factor in, how much better is the pitching staff going to get if you just leave it alone? How much good is further development by Morrow and Cecil and Drabek and whoever going to improve the team? By which I don't mean to say that Anthopoulos should do nothing; just that the situation he's addressing is dynamic and not static.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#240409) #
Since hitting a HR in 4 straight games June 14-17, Adam Lind is hitting .212/.266/.300 in 184 PA.

Lind has been terrible for awhile now.  He's back to looking like he did last year.  I'm sure he'll come out of this slump at some point, but it's also clear he's really not that elite hitting first baseman I'd like to have.  So throw money at Prince?  Try to pry Votto away from Cincinnati?
greenfrog - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#240410) #
I'm sure AA would love to have Prince for the next few years - just not the next six or seven.

Does anyone else find watching Red Sox-Yankees games excruciating? I enjoy catching a few innings, as both teams have some great players, but four hours for each game? No thanks! No wonder the rivalry is such a soap opera.
Alex Obal - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#240411) #
If it went any faster we'd miss out on the Pedroia/Jeter/Schilling idolatry, which is what I personally paid to see.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#240412) #
I can't watch Yankee-Red Sox games at all.  They're all four hour death marches.  I wonder how many potential baseball fans fall by the wayside when they tune in because these are the two big teams ESPN is always pimping, and then they get hit with these things. 
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