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The Jays kick off a 10 game road trip with a seven game swing out west, starting with the Mariners. Let's break it down quick, Advance Scout Style.


Monday: Ricky Romero v. Hisashi Iwakuma

This will be Hisashi Iwakuma's fifth major league start; he started the year in the bullpen before finally moving to the rotation. This is Iwakuma's first year in the majors; Oakland won his rights in the posting system after the 2010 season, but could not come to terms, and he signed a free agent contract with the Mariners this past season. It's been a pretty abysmal campaign so far though, as he's walking almost 1 in 8 batters and giving up a ridiculous number of home runs (even in Safeco). His FIP is a full run higher than his ERA, which stands at a still not great 4.56. Iwakuma throws a 90 mph heater about half the time, and asplitter around 86 that he gets ground balls with another quarter of the time. His third pitch is an 83 mph slider, and he'll throw an occasional hook around 73. The splitter is the money pitch.

Tuesday: Aaron Laffey v. Jason Vargas

Jason Vargas is doing what he does, albeit slightly worse. The 29 year old lefty (it feels like he's been around forever, no?) is a flyball pitcher who doesn't post great strikeout or walk numbers, yet somehow he survives, I guess on magical lefty powers (in actuality he just really limits BABIP, with a .276 career mark). This year he's besting that by a considerable margin, with a .245 BABIP, which goes a long way to explaining the split between his ERA, 3.76, and his FIP, 4.84. Vargas does not throw particularly hard, topping out in the high 80s, and relies heavily on the heater. He stopped throwing his slider last 7ear (or pitch f/x reclassified it), and relies on a 75 mph curveball, which he seldom throws, as his breaking pitch. He also throws a cutter (84 mph) and a change up (80 mph) that's amongst the best in the majors (actually). Vargas has pretty much owned the non-Encarnacion Jays - lifetime Rajai Davis is 0/8, Edwin 5/13 with 2 HR, Escobar 2/11, Mathis 1/15, Lind 2/11, Rasmus 2/7.

Wednesday: Carlos Villanueva v. Blake Beavan


Blake Beavan came over to the Mariners in one of the Cliff Lee packages (I'm starting to lose count at this point), although he hasn't shown much to date in his second big league season. Always a low strikeout guy in the minors, his major league numbers are approaching Alvarez territory, although after whiffing 10.4% in 2011 he's up to 12.4% this year (4.77/9 IP). Beavan does have excellent control though, walking less than 4% of batters faced. He is however a fly ball pitcher who gives up a ton of line drives, and with so many balls in play he has a tendency to get burned, with an ERA over 5 on the year. Beavan, still only in his age 23 season, basically only throws two pitches, a fastball around 90-92, which he throws almost 70% of the time, and a slider around 80 he throws another 20% of the times. He'll mix in the occasional curve, 73-75, and change up, 82 mph, but those first two are the big pitches. The Jays have faced him I believe twice now, with Encarnacion and Rasmus both going 3/4, with 2 and 1 homers, respectively, and Yunel and Adam Lind both going 1/6.

Lineup

Well, this is strange.

Dustin Ackley 2B
Casper Wells RF
Michael Saunders CF
Jesus Montero DH
Kyle Seager 3B
Miguel Olivo C
Mike Carp 1B
Trayvon Robinson LF
Bo Ryan SS

No Ichiro! The Mariners appear to use a pretty set lineup; expect Carlos Peguero to play RF on Wednesay afainst the righty Villanueva; ditto for John Jaso.Kyle Seager has become one of the Mariners untouchables, so to speak. The 24 year old is reportedly one of three Mariners not going anywhere (along with Felix and Ackley). He leads the Ms in fWAR so far, although he is only hitting .245/.311/.407, albeit with good defense... Dustin Ackley, the other position playing untouchable, isn't doing much better (in fact he's doing worse), with a .224/.306/.394 line. Canadian Michael Saunders leads the Ms in hitting, and he's only at .257/.315/.418; even in Safeco, that's... not so good. Meanwhile Jusin Smoak is down in AAA after hitting just .189. So things are not so good in Mariners land.

Infirmary: Franklin Gutierrez (CF) has a concussion and his return is TBD. Charlie Furbush (SP) has a strained triceps and is starting to rehab, while George Sherill (RP) is out until at least 2013.

Song to Advance Scout By: Public Enemy with Harder Than You Think, which is used extremely powerfully in this Paralympics commercial.

Chart: Time constraints! Check out Fangraphs.
Advance Scout: Mariners, July 30-August 1 | 161 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Monday, July 30 2012 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#261352) #
A clue to the mystery of Vargas.  In his career, opponents have a BABIP of .218 on ground balls, this year it is .145.  UZR and DRS are both crazy about the defensive abilities of Ryan, Ackley and Saeger. 

Playing in Safeco against the Mariners with a good defence behind him should be the ideal situation for Romero to get back on track. 

hypobole - Monday, July 30 2012 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#261353) #
Safeco seems to be "The Park That Breaks Hitter's Spirits". At some point they're going to have to do something to make it at least a bit more hitter friendly.
Mike Green - Monday, July 30 2012 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#261354) #
No kidding.  The Mariners as a club are hitting .203/.280/.295 at home and .255/.306/.415 on the road.   The hitters have hit more than twice as many home runs on the road as compared with home; the pitchers have allowed almost twice as many homers on the road.  Safeco is the closest thing we have to the Astrodome.
vw_fan17 - Monday, July 30 2012 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#261360) #
Any interest in Lyle Overbay (just DFAd today) as a fill-in for Lind?

He's hitting ok against righties, and I would imagine his defense, while maybe not stellar anymore, should still be ok? Strictly against righties of course..
92-93 - Monday, July 30 2012 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#261361) #
Absolutely not. Might as well give those kind of ABs to Cooper & Thames.
Mike Green - Monday, July 30 2012 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#261363) #
Farrell has decided to give Cooper another day to adjust, with Davis DHing and Encarnacion at first against the right-hander tonight.  I don't agree at all with the club's handling of this situation. 
scottt - Monday, July 30 2012 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#261365) #
Reverse splits, of course.
Mike Green - Monday, July 30 2012 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#261366) #
If he's got reverse splits, use Davis in RF and DH Cooper who hits lefties reasonably well. 
jjdynomite - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#261371) #
I am very sad to see Travis Snider traded. Garza?
Ron - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#261372) #
Travis Snider has been traded. I saw his first MLB game at Yankee stadium. I'm not happy with how the Jays handled him.
D. King - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#261373) #
Gosh... I really liked Travis. That's not exactly what I wanted to see.

And now I will never get to go to the promotional Lunchbox giveaway game.
dan gordon - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#261374) #
Well, let's see what they got for him, but I have a bad feeling about giving up on Travis at just 24 years of age...
D. King - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#261375) #
Brad Lincoln???
Ron - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#261376) #
Snider for Brad Lincoln .... lol. Tell me this is just a bad dream.
ayjackson - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#261377) #
I'm going to have a hard time watching this team if we keep trading prospects for bullpen arms.  Horrible.  Just horrible.
jjdynomite - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#261378) #
Brad Lincoln -- Fourth overall in 2006, Snider was 14th in the same draft (10 slot value!) Controllable arm, but I am still sad for Travis being gone.
Nolan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#261379) #
This is the first AA trade that I feel completely negative about. Maybe that is because I disparately wanted to see Snider become a star for the Jays - Toronto needs a McCutchen or a Trout, a star who can carry the team for a decade. I thought Snider had a chance to do that.
Glevin - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#261380) #
Shocking. The first AA move I've hated. I have my doubts that Snider will ever amount to much, but he might, and Lincoln is an unexceptional short reliever. He had a 4.72 ERA and 1.47 WHIP a season ago. This is the type of pitcher you should be getting for C prospects, not someone with Snider's ability.
smcs - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#261381) #
Thames pulled in Las Vegas. Another move will have to be made to send down a pitcher.
dan gordon - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#261382) #

Terrible trade.  Now they've got a hole in left field.  Lincoln seems like a much lower upside guy than Snider.  I don't get this at all.  Was the need for an extra bullpen guy that urgent?  Yikes. 

Maybe they're going to move Lincoln back to the rotation?  Even if they do that, I think this is a poor trade.  I like Zaunie's comment, straight to the point - "good trade for Pittsburgh".

Oceanbound - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:50 AM EDT (#261383) #
So not only do I have to deal with no more Snider, I also have to deal with having to watch Eric Thames play left field. Worst day.
fozzy - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:55 AM EDT (#261384) #
I don`t understand this at all. If only the Jays had a reliever in AAA who should be in the big leagues - oh wait, that`s David Carpenter.

I think it also means Gose is here to stay. Unless AA is planning to put together a mega-deal involving some more relievers, I have nothing but absolute hate for this trade.
Jdog - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#261385) #
Only way this deal makes any sense is if the Jays have a deal for a star type OF coming which would have left Snider without a place to play.

I hate this trade. I think AA is placing a little too much value in controllable years.
Tijean - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:01 AM EDT (#261386) #
I'm disappointed to see Snider go.  I always thought he'd be an impact player for the Jays, the type of player you loved to see in the field, and who's at bats you didn't want to miss.

I hope he has a stellar career in Pittsburg.

PeteMoss - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:04 AM EDT (#261387) #
Hilarious reaction to this trade on twitter.

Jays fans outraged asking who the heck Lincoln is.

Pirates fans outraged... not believing they'd trade Lincoln for a guy like Snider.

smcs - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#261388) #
I don't think any of us who have followed Snider's career closely can take the necessary, brutally honest view of Snider's value. This trade hurts me because, holy crap, I wanted Snider to succeed. He represented a lot more than he should have -- at the same time, he represented Ricciardi admitting his college-only rule was wrong and Riccardi's immense ego --  and was ultimately not always put into a position to succeed.

On the other hand, he's had nearly 1000 major league plate appearances and has put up below-average numbers, with little evidence that he will ever get better. That simply wasn't going to cut it and it's far more likely that Snider will never turn into the player we thought he could be or the payer we so desperately wanted him to be. I've got to assume that Snider's people were putting pestering the Jays about resolving his situation once and for all -- play him or cut him loose. Clearly, the Jays thought that Thames + Lincoln is better than Snider + Chad Beck.
Oceanbound - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:08 AM EDT (#261389) #
I hardly think upgrading from Chad Beck, a dude you use twice a month, is a legitimate reason for trading Snider away.
TJ Caino - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:09 AM EDT (#261390) #
I am interested to hear the explaination for this one.


smcs - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#261391) #
Nevermind. Thames has been traded for Steve Delabar of the Mariners.
neurolaw - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#261392) #
I am going to preface the following points by saying that I hate this trade.

Depending on your perspective the Jays sold low on Travis Snider. In some ways this trade was similar to the Rasmus trade. It clearly reached a point that Travis had a flaw that the Jays felt was not going to be fixed in Toronto and instead of waiting out for a good trade they got desperate and traded him.

But if you look at it from the other perspective which is that Snider has had enough PA to demonstrate the type of player he is - a high strikeout little contact possible lpower hitter. The problem us Jays fans (myself included) think he is a superstar in the making despite all the evidence against that.

Like I said I hate this trade but I hate it because I can't face the truth which is that so far he has never ever produced at a clip that would put him in the same league as other young slugging outfielders. I hate this trade because I hope that he eventually will if he gets consistent big league playing time (a legitimate argument).

I am sure the Cards regret the Rasmus trade and in time so might the Jays.

Jdog - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#261393) #
I liked it better when we were trading bullpen arms.
Oceanbound - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:16 AM EDT (#261394) #
I didn't take the 12 man bullpen rumours seriously. Joke's on me.
ayjackson - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:16 AM EDT (#261395) #

Clearly, the Jays thought that Thames + Lincoln is better than Snider + Chad Beck.

Snider's the only one with upside there.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:17 AM EDT (#261396) #
Thames/Delabar trade is legit, per MLBTR, quoting the Mariners.
Oceanbound - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:19 AM EDT (#261397) #
I can only assume they're making room for a mystery LF with these trades.
smcs - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:21 AM EDT (#261398) #
Snider never put up stats like Rasmus did in 2010, and flags fly forever. St. Louis doesn't regret that trade for a second.
ayjackson - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:21 AM EDT (#261399) #
Upton?
PeteMoss - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#261400) #
Lincoln's stats as a RP this year:
33.1 IP, 22 hits, 40k, 8bb - 0.54 ERA
neurolaw - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:23 AM EDT (#261401) #
Scms I was not comparing the players I was comparing the situation.
PeteMoss - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:29 AM EDT (#261402) #
So seeing as they now have 800 RPs now... I'd assume two of Crawford/Carreno/Carpenter go down.... who comes up? Sierra? McCoy? Hechvarria?
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:30 AM EDT (#261403) #
27 year old, #4 pick in 2006, controllable through 2017, can Start or relieve. Exactly the type of player A.A. wants. And MAYBE Travis Snider makes this The Jays Roster full-time. I fully expect this trade came about when Oakland balked on the Escobar trade.

Romero may or may not miss starts, the other four Starters named Who? are more lucky than good. I don't expect A.A. to be finished yet. So stop complaining about a good Baseball deal.
neurolaw - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:31 AM EDT (#261404) #
Wow both Snider and Thames traded in the last hour with no LF to replace them.

This is going to be a very interesting 12 hours!

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:40 AM EDT (#261405) #
Another typical A.A. acquisition, young, controllable and effective. What happens next?
smcs - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:40 AM EDT (#261406) #
Scms I was not comparing the players I was comparing the situation.

But they aren't the same situation. Rasmus had had a very good season at a key position. Snider is an above average defensive player at one of the easiest defensive positions and 1000 PAs of less-than-mediocrity with random intervals of quality thrown in. Rasmus was at odds with the manager. Snider might have been upset with the front office, but none of that stuff was apparent as the mutual dislike of Tony La Russa and Tony Rasmus.

Snider probably wouldn't be someone AA would target because his problems are of the on-field variety, as opposed to the off-field variety of Rasmus and Escobar.

Brandon Morrow would probably be the closer match, but he was just misused by the Mariners and the Jays thought he could be a starter.

I really hope the Jays aren't planning on running Gose out there for the rest of the year, because he is just not ready to face major league pitching. I can't imagine they would move him to LF once Bautista came back up, but, then again, I never imagined Snider and Thames would be traded within an hour of one another.
jjdynomite - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:43 AM EDT (#261407) #
Well, the only really good thing I can make of this before I get some shut eye is that with Snider and Thames gonzo I can see, by necessity, Rasmus being extended for major $$$ for a long time.
bps - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:49 AM EDT (#261408) #
The Jays have an offence with the most runs scored in the AL without significant contribution from either Snider or Thames. Meanwhile their pitching has been injured, ineffective, or both. I'm not suggesting I agree but one can see the logic, and as per AA's usual methods he gets pieces he can also control/ flip later.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:51 AM EDT (#261409) #
Who's the Jays' 4th outfielder in the short short term? Kelly Johnson (effectively Vizquel)? Edwin Encarnacion (effectively Gomes)? I guess there'll be a reinforcement by tomorrow, whether from Vegas or elsewhere...
dan gordon - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:51 AM EDT (#261410) #

Given that they are acquiring Delabar, it makes even less sense now to trade Snider.  You've got a bullpen of Janssen, Lyon, Oliver, Frasor (when he returns), Happ, Delabar and Loup.  Throw in Lincoln and you've got eight.  I don't see how adding Lincoln to that bullpen helps them more than having Snider in LF instead of Davis or Gose.  Not to mention the superior upside Snider has vs Lincoln.

Thay had better have a deal tomorrow for a left fielder.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:56 AM EDT (#261411) #
It's funny how much more upset jays fans are about losing snider than thames.



MLB

E.Thames (25): 554pa, 5.8bb%, 23.1k%, .312babip, .257/.306/.429/.735, .318woba, 98wRC+
T.Snider (24): 914pa, 7.4bb%, 27.2k%, .313babip, .247/.305/.429/.734, .319woba, 94wRC+

AAA

E.Thames (25): 469pa, 10.5bb%, 17.3k%, .396babip, .344/.418/.574/.992, .423woba, 146wRC+
T.Snider (24): 797pa, 11.4bb%, 18.7k%, .385babip, .333/.412/.565/.876, .423woba, 150wRC+


Sure, snider is a competent fielder and thames is not, but I always wonder why one of these guys was loved to death and the other pretty much hated.
Mike Forbes - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:57 AM EDT (#261412) #
This could be the most interesting trade deadline day for a Jays fan ever. Or the worst. Now,what's next?
uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:57 AM EDT (#261413) #
that should be a .976ops for Snider in AAA, not .876.
King Ryan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 02:11 AM EDT (#261414) #
I get the love for Snider as a first round pick who's shown power, but this trade reminds me far more of when the Jays gave up on Josh Phelps than it does Rasmus.

Lincoln isn't some washed up ex-closer, he's 27 and having a terrific season. He'll help the team in the short and long term.

I'm not positive it was a good trade, but I hardly think it's worth getting worked up about. I liked uglyone's stats showing that Snider and Thames have virtually performed the same so far; Jays fans have an attachment to Snider, I think from him being a first round pick we've been excited about since he was 18, but let's not go crazy here. It might end up being the right move to get something for him while we can rather than dumping him for Eric Crozier (remember him?)
PeteMoss - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 02:17 AM EDT (#261415) #
Snider's always been seen as a savior guy. He got 1000 at bats in the majors but a lot of people feel he never got a real shot. Thames blocked out Snider... so he had to be good to win praise. (and the difference in defense between the two can't be understated).

Even in this last (admittedly tiny sample size) call-up, he was still striking out like crazy (35.1% K rate). But most ignored it and focused on the defense (which was great) and the 3 HRs against lefties.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 02:23 AM EDT (#261416) #
Snider has also had wrist injuries each of the past 3 seasons. With his all out style as evidenced by the diving catches we saw recently, how long would he have held up on the RC carpet?
Glevin - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 02:28 AM EDT (#261417) #
"Sure, snider is a competent fielder and thames is not, but I always wonder why one of these guys was loved to death and the other pretty much hated."

Because Snider has upside the sort of upside that Thames doesn't. It's not all that likely, but Snider has the chance to be a middle of the order hitter and Thames doesn't. (Also, those stats are ridiculously misleading. Snider was in the majors at 20, Thames at 24 and they have very similar numbers which means that Snider has actually done much better in the majors relative to their ages.)

What makes this trade so terrible is that one of the basic ways a forward-thinking GM sets himself apart, is realizing that relievers are fungible and their great seasons are often not repeatable. Tampa understand this very well, never spending big to re-sign their relievers and making dominant relievers out of seemingly washed up pitchers. The Pirates this year probably have had the best bullpen in the majors (Hanrahan, Respo, Hughes, Grili, Lincoln, and Cruz)and they're all pretty much reclamation projects. You can have a great bullpen with nothing pitchers, but you are not going to compete if you don't spent on hitting and starters. Spending big money or prospects on relievers is almost always a waste of resources.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 02:38 AM EDT (#261418) #
The stats aren't misleading at all, IMO. Snider's numbers were better when he was younger than he is now, so the age comparison doesn't hurt him.

Moreover, Thames' injuries that wiped out much of his early career made him less experienced at every level than Snider was, and he still has many fewer (~33% fewer) pro at bats than Snider at the moment.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 02:57 AM EDT (#261419) #
It's just possible J.A. Happ is being moved to the Starting Rotation. It's possible Brad Lincoln is be moved there as well. With Steve Delabar taking Happ's place, A.A. may be trading one or more of the Whos? in a trade, or he may be trading a Reliever. All I know is this is just getting interesting!
Oceanbound - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 03:07 AM EDT (#261420) #
It's not just that Thames isn't a competent fielder, it's that he's so bad that he shouldn't be playing the position at all. He should have been competing with Lind and Cooper, not Snider.

These trades are probably setting up a bigger trade for an outfielder, but as of now the Jays have traded away something like five pieces, and haven't gotten a single core player back. I can see why people might be underwhelmed.
acepinball - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 03:17 AM EDT (#261421) #
At first glance, it looks like the Jays might need to acquire someone else to play outfield. This may very well be true, but it could be more telling that the Jays now have a number of arms in the pen, with several of them free agents.

Perhaps it's more likely that one or more of Frasor (free agent), Oliver (potential retirement), Lyon (FA), or Villanueva (FA) will be gone at the deadline to avoid losing an asset for nothing.

By making these trades tonight, they allow the pitchers to be available tomorrow when the pen firesale is complete.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:57 AM EDT (#261422) #
overall, I like the Snider trade for both the Jays and Snider - it clearly wasn't working out for both sides. I would like to see Lincoln given the opportunity to start, perhaps in the minors. 
TamRa - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 05:06 AM EDT (#261423) #
I'm going to reserve comment until all the shoes drop - there HAS to be at least one more.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 05:38 AM EDT (#261424) #
These trades are probably setting up a bigger trade for an outfielder, but as of now the Jays have traded away something like five pieces, and haven't gotten a single core player back. I can see why people might be underwhelmed.

J.A. Happ is 1st year arb this year and controllable for two more. Oh, don't tell me he's not a good Pitcher, I won't believe you and neither would A.A. Brad Lincoln is a good pitcher, as Starter or Reliever, and controllable through 2017. Steve Delabar (4.17 ERA with a 0.927 Whip) is a good pitcher and is under control through 2015. If that's not core, NO ONE is.
Oceanbound - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 06:06 AM EDT (#261425) #
You have a very weird definition of core player. No, it doesn't mean that someone is good at baseball. If Happ, Lincoln and Delabar are core, then the whole team is just one big core.

Middle relievers aren't core players. And Happ is a guy they're hesitating to put into the rotation ahead of Laffey and Cecil. Nope, not a core player.
Sano - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 06:25 AM EDT (#261426) #
I'm with TamRa, we have to wait until the other shoe drops. I'm intrigued that Rosenthal has a column up saying he's hearing rumours of a blockbuster trade coming from the D'backs.

Preliminary thoughts: I'm kind of with the school of thought that says that these trades (including the Happ one) are about survival and setting up next season as much as possible. The injuries this year have exposed the gap between Sanchez et al and the current crop of major leaguers. The major league team is good and we need to keep their belief and expectations up (the impact of these trades on the Jays' morale is an ignored aspect in my opinion). No Happ, Lincoln and Delabar aren't going to blow you away, but they will keep you competitive and, in the Jays' context, allow your offence to win you some more games. For a team that clearly half-believes it's close to winning, that's not necessarily a bad thing.
Rich - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#261427) #
The intensity with which many fans wanted Snider to succeed reflects just how poorly the team has done over the years at drafting above-average major league hitters.  Look at the current lineup - every good hitter on the Jays was drafted by someone else.  In all of baseball, Hill and Lind are probably still the 2 best current hitters drafted by the Jays and that is pretty damning.
ogator - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:05 AM EDT (#261428) #
I was as saddened by watching Kevin Gregg, Francisco and Coco try to close games as the next guy and I was depressed to watch Santos go up in flames but there is professional counselling for that not the sacrifice of Lunchbox on an altar of mediocrity. It doesn't matter if there is another trade to come, unless Lincoln is part of it. The Blue Jays gave up more than they got today and there is a real chance that in a year this trade will be embarrassing.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#261429) #
Oh what happened to our Anthopoulos.  Please give us our Anthopoulos back.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#261430) #
So many fans are still in love with the idea of what Travis Snider could have/ should have been - instead of what he is - If you're a fan of Snider, you should be ecstatic because he's going from an organisation whom you think mishandled him / did not give him a fair shot to one that probably will - A year from now, let's see whose smelling like a rose.
Sano - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#261431) #
I like Snider as much as anybody. But I'm really getting tired of this constant handwringing over his treatment by the Jays. If you ask the man himself he never blames anyone else for his struggles at the major league level. Let's wish him well but also be realistic. The guy never took off at this level and the majority of responsibility for that is on him.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#261432) #

Do we just like Sierra that much more than Thames or Snider?

Seriously, I don't like the idea of Gose or Davis as a full time LF for us.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#261433) #
I like the trade. Yes, Lincoln is currently a reliever, but he has a good arm (with the performance in 2012 to back it up). He could be another Morrow-like addition (first round pedigree, late bloomer, good stuff, shuffled back and forth between the rotation and bullpen).

My guess is that AA and his scouts saw Snider as a potentially solid LF who was unlikely to become a star in the majors (or at least, in the AL East). LF is a relatively easy position to fill, and the Jays have Gose and Marisnick in the pipeline. I think this is a "trust your scouts"-type trade.
rpriske - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#261434) #

People have to get over the idea that Snider is a prospect. He isn't. We should be overjoyed that AA could get that much for him. The longer we kept him, the more his value diminished. I hope for his sake he can turn things around in Pittsburgh, because he sure couldn't in Toronto.

 

My issue is the Thames trade. I am not saying Thames is awesome but by trading BOTH of them does that make Rajai Davis a full time player? That is not good.

 

Hopefully another deal is coming.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#261435) #
While i would like to upgrade, i'd just like to note that rajaidavis has been probably the best starting LF in the AL East this year so far.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#261436) #
Got up.  Turned on the computer.  Went to check boxscore.  Saw Snider pulled for Gomes.  Muttered "another wrist injury" preceded by an expletive, and then went to BB for the details. 

I will save most of the subjective comments for the "Gone But Not Forgotten" thread which surely will be coming.

Generically, I am not ecstatic about trading for relievers.  Could Delabar or Lincoln turn into Joe Nathan?  Sure.  Do I think that is likely?  No, although in both cases, there may have been a leap forward which could be seen if one watched them all the time. I am pretty confident about what the Jays have currently given up in Snider.  The pop is back; the strikeouts are still there.  He will walk a little more than he has to date in the major leagues.  He runs and fields well.  He will be at significant risk of further wrist injury.  All other things being equal, that's a 2.5-3 WAR player.  So, no, I wouldn't have made the trade.

Dave Till - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#261438) #
Well, that was interesting. I heard about the Thames trade first, since my Twitter feed is in reverse order. My first thought was that the Jays had decided to give Snider the left field job. Then I scrolled up some more.

First, the easy one: getting Delabar for Thames is a good move, as Thames had no value in Toronto. Delabar's numbers are utterly fascinating: 36 innings, 23 hits, 11 walks, 46 strikeouts...  and 9 home runs. I know nothing about him, but this suggests a pitcher who brings it in there and says, "Okay, mofo, see if you can hit it." (Watch him be a junkballer and make me look stupid here.) Anybody who can strike out that many batters has to possibly be good for something - though an ERA that high in Safeco might mean that the AL East will eat him for lunch. This is where Bruce Walton earns his money.

As for Snider: we're all worried about the trade a bit because he hasn't reached his ceiling yet. But there are ominous signs all over his stats: he isn't walking, and he is still striking out a third of the time. Small sample size and all, but that looks like a player with holes in his swing.

Presumably, AA made this trade - and many of his other trades for pitching - because there's no pitching help on the farm. Jenkins and McGuire are not developing as quickly as expected, and they've tried just about everybody else in AA and AAA who might help. The Jays have about a one to two year hole in pitching development, and need to find somebody who can help them.

Or perhaps, as some have speculated, this is the leadup to a big trade. Maybe the Jays are going to land an outfielder from Arizona or somewhere in return for a package. (If I were to predict, I'd guess that the package might be Lyon, one of the newbies, some minor league flotsam, and either Gose or Marisnick. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gose be the one who gose [sic] here.)

You have to give AA credit for some guts here. Many general managers would have taken the safe route and given Snider the left field job for the rest of the season, or even for the rest of this season and next. Snider has obvious talent, was a number one pick, and is highly rated by the fans, so no one in Blue Jays nation would have criticized AA for giving Lunchbox a full shot. Instead, AA has gone with his instincts and made the risky move. It might not work out, but hey, that's why Jose Bautista is still here instead of patrolling right field for the Sox or Yanks right now.

One thing that makes AA's move even riskier is that Snider is likely to get off to a good start in Pittsburgh. The NL likely won't have a book on him, and will throw him pitches that he can hit. Also, the NL Central just isn't as tough a division as the AL East, and anybody who goes from the former to the latter is going to look bad, while anybody who moves from the AL East to an easier division is likely to look good.

Lincoln is the sort of player that AA loves - under team control for some time. His numbers look pretty good as a reliever, and he might be able to start. You never know. Let's wait and see.

ayjackson - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#261439) #

I'll admit I'm not completely rational when it comes to Snider.  His wrist injuries are troubling.  I think he is figuring it out.  The Jays have thrown him his final curveball.

I do like Gose though.  He looks (a) very young and (b) like he will hit.  He has a very quick and quiet/compact swing.  By no means does he need to be in the majors now though.

Gerry - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#261440) #

Snider trade:

Initial thought - don't like it

Second thought - Left fielders are easy to find in the off season, Snider can be replaced

Third thought - relievers are easy to find in the off season, why give away a lot for one?

Fourth thought - don't like it

 

These trades and last weeks trade suggest AA is trying to win now, or at least in 2013.  He is willing to trade prospects for major league proven players, even if they are relievers.  It also suggests to me that the budget is not going to be significantly higher next year so AA doesn't think he can fill those holes in free agency.

Finally, the Jays are short major league ready pitching in the upper minors so AA has to trade hitters for pitchers.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#261441) #
AA's record with relievers to date has not been great so far- Napoli/Francisco, Cordero, Santos.
PeteMoss - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#261442) #
My main concern is that AA develops (or has) an Ed Wade like obsession with relievers.
JB21 - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#261443) #

I'm just commenting to say I'm not going to comment until after the dust settles. Does AA give Davis the full-time LF job and go with an OF of Davis/Rasmus/Bautista? I guess we'll have to wait and see.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#261444) #
AA did manage to trade a handful of relievers for Colby Rasmus, so i'm not sure he's so bad at valuing RP.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#261445) #

Any chance we see Encarnacion playing Left field?  God I hope not, I think he should be given the full time 1B position, but he was snagging flies there this spring.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#261447) #
At one time, A.A. thought older Relievers were dependable Relievers. Oliver is a good choice. Francisco was A.A. trying to improve the late innings, as was Cordero. Francisco was very out of shape. Cordero's career looks over. Didn't some posters say good Relievers are cheap and easy to find? Really. Santos was and is a good trade. Is Lincoln another Morrow or just a good reliever. Too many people thought Snider could be great. Not in this lifetime. Toronto won these deals. If any of you are so concerned about the trades, people from Pittsburgh and Seattle can tell you - check their Blogs.
LouisvilleJayFan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#261448) #
My apologies if this has been said already, but remember that the Pirates were also the organization that took a chance on Brandon Wood. Hopefully, Travis Snider works out a little better for them.
electric carrot - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#261450) #
I don't really know the book on Lincoln but it just seems abundantly clear that the Jays need pitching badly and have a surplus of outfielders who are ready or near to being ready.  I like the idea of this trade a ton.  I'm going to speculate that as we get to know Lincoln better that many Bauxites will too.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#261451) #
I can't see EE going to LF. He's thriving at 1B. Best to not mess with a good thing. He's the team's first baseman. Let LF and DH be the merry-go-round positions and keep EE out of it.

Brandon Wood's MLB experience was nowhere near comparable to Snider's. Wood was a historically bad hitter (OPS+ 40) where Snider has been merely disappointing (OPS+ 95).
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#261452) #
AA's record with relievers to date has not been great so far- Napoli/Francisco, Cordero, Santos

Mike, I don't those examples favour your assertion. Beginning with Napoli/Francisco, I think if one asks only the question "Who had a better year in 2011?" you'd be right of course. But I think that question was far down the list of Anthopolous's concerns. In fact if we were having the decision reviewed and an adjudicator asked only that question, we'd say he/she asked the wrong one on the way to the wrong answer.

When Francisco was dealt to Toronto he'd gone Jason Frasor and turned down free agency for arbitration. I think the number one issue in the FO's mind was draft pick compensation. Francisco was a free agent at the end of 2011 and Napoli wasn't. As it turned out, and I'm not suggesting the FO saw the writing on the wall for the cba changes, the deal worked out the best imaginable for Toronto. We got Smoral in the Francisco spot. If we had Napoli instead at this point, we'd be envious of that result. Napoli has had a poor year in 2012, in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league. He's hitting .228 with a .789 ops (worse since mid-April). If Toronto had him right now, they'd be facing the unappealing choice of making a $12million+ arbitration offer or seeing him walk for nothing (unless they wanted to overpay to keep him). Even without knowing about the cba changes, taking the 2012 draft pick was the smart move by far.

And in addition of course, Toronto in 2011 was committed to giving Arencibia the majority of catching duties. He hasn't really panned out at the plate, but to not have given him a shot after his 2010 PCL season would have been a difficult choice. In fact, some if you can recall were apoplectic about John Buck playing in September of 2010 while Arencibia sat.

I think the Francisco/Napoli deal worked out perfectly for Toronto. I'd take Matt Smoral over the choices the FO would now face any day. The best case scenario for Toronto now would be offering him 12+ in arbitration (which he'd likely snap up), having him refuse, and picking up compensation like Matt Smoral. So I'm completely on the other side of this one from you. I'd say Anthopoulos did well with Francisco by turning him into Matt Smoral, which was at the highest end of possible outcomes. One might argue that the Jays coming out so far on top was entirely the result of unknown changes (i.e. the cba change), but I'd suggest that was the result of the draft pick priority.
As far as Santos, it was a bad deal because Santos got injured? I don't think Toronto wants to take back Nestor Molina for Sergio Santos, and nor should they. The news at the time was anger in other front offices that they hadn't had the chance to get in on Santos.

Cordero? Meh. He had a worst case scenario season and Anthopolous still found someone who thought he might be able to close, and essentially dealt him for Brandon Lyon. Both are free agents at the end of the year . Nothing big there. The guy he ended up with though has some trade value today while Cordero doesn't.
Moe - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#261453) #
Hilarious reaction to this trade on twitter.
Jays fans outraged asking who the heck Lincoln is.

Pirates fans outraged... not believing they'd trade Lincoln for a guy like Snider.


I agree. When I first read about the trade this morning, I couldn't believe that the Jays would finally give up on Snider and dumped him for a reliever, especially now that he might finally figured things out. However, after thinking some more about it and seeing the response from Pirates fans and unbiased observers (e.g. K. Law), I don't hate the deal any more. I would have not done it, but it becomes more defensible, especially if it allows AA to sell off some of the other relievers.

What I find most puzzling about the trade is that AA normally loves upside. Of the two, Snider has the higher upside but Lincoln is the safer bet. To quote Law:
"The Pirates get to roll the dice on a flawed hitter who's young enough to retain some upside, while the Blue Jays get a reliever who can help the team immediately and doesn't have the washout risk of the guy they gave up." and
"The upside [with Snider], while remote, is a corner outfielder who's average on defense and has 25-homer power with some patience, but that can't happen until he makes more contact, which can't happen unless he can alter his swing and maintain the changes he makes."

Btw, Snider is under club control for 4 more seasons after this. He started the year with 2.015 and will end the year with 2.1xx. He might be super-2 (probably not even that) but he is under contol for 4 more years. Lincoln on the other hand will end the season with 1.xxx, so the difference in club control is really only one year.

 
Beyonder - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#261454) #
"the Jays need pitching badly and have a surplus of outfielders who are ready or near to being ready."

Do you mean they had a surplus of outfielders?

Who is close to ready at this point? Gose is pretty clearly far from ready, and likely needs another year at AAA. Marisnick is two years away at best.

Unless something else is brewing, we're going to be seeing an awful lot of Rajai Davis.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#261455) #
"It also suggests to me that the budget is not going to be significantly higher next year so AA doesn't think he can fill those holes in free agency."

Isn't attendance up this year? If so, I would hope that AA has a bit more latitude for next season when it comes to the budget.
Moe - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#261456) #
AA's record with relievers to date has not been great so far- Napoli/Francisco, Cordero, Santos

Also, the guy they gave up for Santos hasn't really done much and Santos could still do well in next few years. I would argue his sales of RP has worked out rather well: League got the Jays Morrow and lots of arms gave the Jays Rasmus. So I don't think it's a fair assessment to say AA has done a poor job managing RPs.


Forkball - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#261457) #

I did know any of this prior to last night.  This morning I flipped through MLBTR and saw that Thames was traded for a reliever.  My first thought was ‘I guess Snider really won the LF job now’.  Then I scrolled some more and saw that Snider had been traded too.

 

I really like the Thames trade, although in the grand scheme of things it’s a small gain.  He’s essentially a replacement level LF (or slightly worse) and was flipped for a 28 year old reliever with almost no service time, a high K rate and low BB rate.  The HRs are high which is the concern (Unlucky?  Could have been worse but masked by the park? Both? Neither?).  Maybe he’s a 6th inning guy, or the call-up when there’s injuries, but I also think there’s a possibility that he turns in a few decent years for essentially the minimum.  That’s more than Thames was going to provide.

 

Snider is the more interesting move.  He has the pedigree and the tools, and is really likable (or at least I found him likable).  You always wanted to say that this was the moment when the light turned on and he’d become a dominant hitter.  But at this point, he’s had almost 1000 PAs and hasn’t done anything with it.  And on top of that he’s an injury risk.  At this point he’s more Josh Phelps (at the time he was traded) than an OF who’ll be a middle of the order hitter for 5+ years.  I think the Jays are viewing the move through this lens and I suspect they’re pretty excited about Lincoln.

 

I find the move interesting from the Pirates perspective.  They’re in a race and are trading a pitcher who’s been dominant in relief for a former top prospect who’s been up-and-down.  But upon further review they have by far the worse OPS from LF in the NL (.565…. ouch!) so I guess Snider doesn’t have to do much to improve upon that, and the Pirates get a little upside as well.

 

Time will tell, but I don’t think this is a move that will end up biting the Jays and could very well work out well.

 

Another interesting angle is, did they call Snider up to ‘showcase’ him?  Was the plan to trade him all along, or did they just come across an offer they couldn’t turn down?  Probably something we'll never know.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#261458) #

Also, while I know alot of people are looking at the gap in LF and wondering how it is going to be filled, can we please dispense with this whole "waiting for the other shoe to drop" thing?

I swear to God that this board has labelled every single trade that AA has completed as a "precursor to another move" these boards. 

While that statement in and of itself is factually correct, I don't think that we should be expecting to turn on Sportsnet at 3:30 and see Justin Upton.

electric carrot - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#261459) #
Who is close to ready at this point?

I was thinking of Gose in particular as being a year or two away and Rajai Davis tho not many people's idea of permanent solution isn't a terrible option for a team that leads MLB in runs scored.  Some speed for those close games can be a real help IMO.  Pitching on the other hand just seems like dog's breakfast at the moment.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#261460) #
It's certainly an underwhelming trade, but the motivation is clear: Anthopoulos does not believe Snider is likely to achieve his potential. If he's right, it's an okay-to-good trade. If he's wrong, it's a bad one. It's all about what scouts & analysts you believe.

Truthfully, I'm more disappointed to see Thames go. He seemed like a pretty cool guy, and I'll miss his facial hair.
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#261462) #
AA's record with relievers to date has not been great so far- Napoli/Francisco, Cordero, Santos

Part Two

Cordero is 'meh' to me, because overall Anthopolous has had tremendous 'luck' with relievers. Although he inherited next to nothing, here's what he's accomplished.

1. 2009. Brandon League for Brandon Morrow. League went to the Dodgers yesterday. I'm doubting any of the return turns out to be Morrow-like.

2. 2010. Kevin Gregg signed for $2.75 million. If one asks whether Kevin Gregg was a great closer in 2010, the answer clearly is 'no'. If one asks instead whether getting Dwight Smith Jr. as a result of the Gregg signing was a positive outcome, the answer would be the opposite. The quick turn around from one of the worst farm systems in mlb to one of the best was accomplished with this sort of move as Toronto piled up comp picks.

3. Scott Downs signs with the Angels. The Blue Jays receive a comp pick in Jacob Anderson.

4. 2011. Blue Jays trade for Francisco (after dumping Wells' contract), receive Matt Smoral as a comp pick. Already addressed.

5. 2011. Bliue Jays sign Dotel. Trade Dotel, Frasor, Rzepczynski and Stewart for Colby Rasmus. Get Frasor back for next to nothing.

Put all this together, and I think every FO in baseball would like to have this kind of 'bad luck' with relievers
uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#261463) #
Just like to remind people whenever he comes up, but while Napoli had a nice fluke year last year, he's a 1B/DH that has posted a .785ish ops in his only two seasons of near full-time starting duty....and he's never been a fulltime starter, ever.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#261464) #
AL East Starting LF, 2011-12:

TBR D.Jennings (25): 618pa, 9.1bb%, 20.4k%, .291babip, .246/.327/.401/.728, .331woba, 111wRC+, 9.4fld, 3.7bsr, 4.2war, 4.1war/600pa
TOR R.Davis (31): 585pa, 5.6bb%, 19.3k%, .297babip, .246/.290/.378/.668, .300woba, 86wRC+, -3.9fld, 4.1bsr, 1.0war, 1.0war/600pa
NYY I.Suzuki (38): 1172pa, 4.8bb%, 9.3k%, .287babip, .268/.301/.344/.645, .287woba, 80wRC+, 9.2fld, 5.3bsr, 1.9war, 1.0war/600pa
BAL C.Davis (26): 562pa, 5.5bb%, 29.7k%, .345babip, .264/.308/.439/.747, .319woba, 97wRC+, -6.1fld, -0.3bsr, 0.4war, 0.4war/600pa
BOS C.Crawford (30): 585pa, 4.3bb%, 19.5k%, .298babip, .254/.290/.401/.691, .304woba, 84wRC+, -5.1fld, 0.4bsr, 0.0war, 0.0war/600pa


2012

TBR D.Jennings (25): 331pa, 7.6bb%, 20.2k%, .281babip, .236/.303/.360/.663, .305woba, 94wRC+, 6.9fld, 2.4bsr, 1.8war, 3.3war/600pa
TOR R.Davis (31): 247pa, 7.3bb%, 20.2k%, .304babip, .258/.313/.418/.731, .326woba, 104wRC+, 3.0fld, 1.7bsr, 1.2war, 2.9war/600pa
NYY I.Suzuki (38): 451p, 3.8bb%, 8.9k%, .276babip, .261/.288/.357/.645, .283woba, 76wRC+, 14.9fld, 1.4bsr, 1.7war, 2.3war/600pa
BAL C.Davis (26): 352pa, 5.7bb%, 29.5k%, .332babip, .263/.310/.462/.772, .325woba, 101wRC+, -0.3fld, 0.6bsr, 0.8war, 1.4war/600pa
BOS C.Crawford (30): 46pa, 4.3bb%, 21.7k%, .290babip, .238/.304/.357/.661, .304woba, 84wRC+, -2.9fld, 0.2bsr, -0.2war, -2.6war/600pa
uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#261465) #
not to mention that Francisco was not only actually good for us last year, but he netted us a good draft pick as well.

napoli's a free agent this year - how many of you want us to sign him next year?
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#261466) #
I think Gardner, not Suzuki, should be listed at LF for the Yankees in 2011 (he was 3.7 BRef WAR that year).
Lylemcr - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#261467) #

Doesn't Snider have no options left? IF the Jays had no space for him next year(or this year), wouldn't they lose him anyway?  It also tells me the Jays have different plans for the OF and they just wanted to make room. 

I think they are clearing way for Gose.  With Snider\Thames around, Gose would always look over his shoulder.  The Jays might be saying to the kid, "You have 2 months to prove yourself or we will deal with this in the offseason...."

I think this was a good trade for all.  Snider needed a fresh start and you can never have too many servicable bullpen arms. 

Another thing...  Lincoln was drafted before Snider in the same year.  So, when it comes "prospect status", wouldn't they really be about equal?

Gerry - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#261468) #
Reports on twitter suggest Moises Sierra has been promoted to the majors.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#261469) #
3. Scott Downs signs with the Angels. The Blue Jays receive a comp pick in Jacob Anderson.

That's not anything worth bragging about: Downs has continued to be an excellent reliever. It's possible, in 3-6 years, that Anderson could be as valuable as Downs, but the odds are against him.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#261470) #
last point - I notice nobody talking about the reliever situation under AA has mentioned his signing of Darren Oliver, which was nothing less than a coup. Or his trade for Villy, which was also great. Or his full time conversions of guys like Janssen, Rzep and Perez from SP to RP.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#261471) #
I think Gardner, not Suzuki, should be listed at LF for the Yankees in 2011 (he was 3.7 BRef WAR that year).

True, but I was just looking at each team's current LFers.
PeteMoss - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#261472) #
Almost have to feel for Las Vegas... their whole OF gone in a matter of a week.
Paul D - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#261473) #
I find it very strange that this board is obsessed with labelling the Napoli-Francisco trade as anything other than a failure. Good luck finding a non-Jays board to do the same thing. It's okay - even good GMs make bad deals.

I also wouldn't give AA credit for turning Jansen into a reliever.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#261474) #

True, but I was just looking at each team's current LFers.

I believe Suzuki has only played RF for the Yankees.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#261475) #
seems like the obsession pertains to labelling it a disaster, IMO.

as long as people keep complaining about that deal, I'll keep pointing out that Napoli is a part-time 1B/DH who had a fluke year at the plate.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#261476) #
I believe Suzuki has only played RF for the Yankees.

true, I guess I was assuming that Swisher would be back in RF when healthy.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#261477) #
Victorino to the Dodgers. Pence to the Giants. Not exactly part of HLH's master plan (nor his 4+ ERA).
China fan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#261478) #
Thames has tweeted that he's on the same flight as Sierra -- both headed to Seattle, but to different dugouts!

It's a funny photo:
https://twitter.com/EThames14/status/230340132593623040/photo/1

Nice to see that they're flying business class.

I'm happy for Sierra, but again it seems like a temporary move. He's had a decent season at Las Vegas, but he hasn't been hitting as well as several other players on the same team. Good for him to get a taste of the majors, but mostly for his future development. In fact both Gose and Sierra seem like premature call-ups. Let's see what happens at the trade deadline in a few hours. Maybe it is Gose who gets traded for a good LF?
Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#261479) #
Sierra always seemed like a more sensible callup than Gose. He's not a finished product yet, but he's closer to being ready - not as much raw talent as Gose, but not as many glaring holes, either. It'll be interesting to see if Murphy can work his magic - Sierra's supposed to have great, untapped power.
JB21 - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#261480) #

Just saw the photo, couldn't agree more. Happy for Sierra making it to the bigs.

Also, Sierra up, Crawford/Carreno down, clearing the additional spot needed for two RP's.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#261481) #
"The Pirates get to roll the dice on a flawed hitter who's young enough to retain some upside, while the Blue Jays get a reliever who can help the team immediately and doesn't have the washout risk of the guy they gave up." and
"The upside [with Snider], while remote, is a corner outfielder who's average on defense and has 25-homer power with some patience, but that can't happen until he makes more contact, which can't happen unless he can alter his swing and maintain the changes he makes."

I don't agree with this statement of Snider's upside objectively or the chance of it happening subjectively.  His upside is of a 35-40 homer guy.  He hit 14 homers in half a season in 2010 at age 22, and has no problem hitting the ball out to all fields. His career major league K rate is 27%, and I think that he can be a very good major league hitter with that K rate and the power that he natively has, and has shown when not hampered by his wrist.

With respect to the chance of Snider reaching his upside, my views are much more subjective.  When he was drafted, he was a blocky kid with a good power stroke and absolutely no fielding ability.  He looked like a DH.  He had had difficult personal circumstances as a teenager. Many observers felt that he would be too big at age 28 to have any significant value. In the six years since he was drafted, he has upgraded his defensive ability significantly and battled wrist injuries to a draw.  My own view is that defensive struggles and adaptation can delay offensive development.  That is why I was pleased when the Jays moved Lawrie from 2B to 3B with the consequent change to Encarnacion's role. 

Subjectively, I expect Snider to reach the upside unless the wrist injuries recur, but I acknowledge that objectively the chances of that happening are less than 50%, although probably not remote. 
Moe - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#261482) #
His upside is of a 35-40 homer guy.

He might have a 40 HR season if all goes very well but I don't think he has an upside of consistently hitting 40 HRs. Going back to 2007, there are only 10 players or so with 35+ HR seasons.

MatO - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#261483) #
Never thought I'd see the day that both Snider and Thames would be traded for relief pitchers.  Particularly for guys like Lincoln (based upon 23 relief appearances?) and Delarman (have you seen his road numbers?).
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#261484) #
Delabar's splits are crazy, all the way around.  Right now, he seems to be a right-handed LOOGY.  Maybe they figure that they can teach him a slider and he becomes a starter or a high leverage guy. 
Gerry - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#261485) #

If you want to know what today is like in the front office Dan Evans has a very informative piece at BP.

In many organizations, deciding where the team stands at the deadline is the most difficult part of the process. There are 17 teams within five games of a playoff berth today, and herein lies the tough call. Are we a buyer or a seller? This conversation isn't comfortable, as it requires a sit-down with ownership about where you are as a franchise. This is a critical phase, since you need to come clean and then find out what direction ownership wants to take. If you are the general manager, it also is a job review of sorts, since your work is under inspection. This chat requires some preparation, because you have to go into the meeting with a plan. For some GMs in fragile stages of their contracts, it can be the beginning of the end of their employment.

Everyone likes to talk about what you're looking to add as a contender, but the other path is the much more difficult one. If you are one of the 13 or so clubs who woke up today with little or no chance to play in the postseason, you have to evaluate who is part of your nucleus for the following year and beyond and whom you might consider moving to try to contend in the future. This is where your scouts and minor-league staff become critical decision makers if you're doing it right. If they can evaluate well and are realistic about your personnel, you can make shrewd moves. If not, two years later you'll still be waiting for guys to get out of Double-A. It is extremely tough to communicate with your staff if you are going to change course, but if there is a distinct plan, they will be part of the solution, not the problem.

Paul D - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#261486) #
seems like the obsession pertains to labelling it a disaster, IMO. That's fair. Maybe I'm just sick of people arguing about it. If we want something to argue about... why is Carpenter still on the team? JF doesn't seem to want to use him. I would much rather have seen he get DFA'd than Carreno, or send all 3 of them out and add some more flexibility to the bench.
MatO - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#261487) #
What's worse is that AA has traded a whole pile of potentially useful pieces for flotsam in the last couple of weeks that could have been used to get something really impactful.
Lylemcr - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#261488) #

If Thames was our fulltime LF, we are not a contending team.  Average bat with poor defense. I like Thames, but there are at least 4 players in the minors that would rather see in the outfield before him. 

We are romanticizing Snider.  His value is near gone and he has no options left.  Time to move on.  Good luck Travis..

Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#261489) #
If Thames was our fulltime LF, we are not a contending team. Average bat with poor defense.

Quick, someone tell the Yankees they aren't really contending as long as they keep playing Raul Ibanez.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#261491) #
could have been used to get something really impactful.

Like what? Josh Johnson would have made an impact, but the Marlins were insisting a Teixeira package or nothing. In these parts, such a package would begin with d'Arnaud and Gose, and proceed from there. I care less about prospects than anyone here, and I wouldn't have continued that conversation.

One thing a trade tells you is what the actual market value of your prospects really is. As opposed to what we wish it was, or what it would be if the other GMs were in our pocket, doing us favours.
MatO - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#261494) #
Then you wait until the off-season or don't make the trades at all.  It's not like they got anything substantial in the trades they made.  Nothing in these trades solves the starting pitcher issues for this year or the next.
scottt - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#261497) #
The Pirates were desperate for a left fielder. I would think that they would have preferred to trade a few prospects away rather than a part of their bullpen.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#261499) #
"Nothing in these trades solves the starting pitcher issues for this year or the next."

They should solve the bullpen issues for this year and next, though. That's a plus.
fozzy - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#261500) #
"They should solve the bullpen issues for this year and next, though. That's a plus."

That was pretty much the excuse built around the 'payroll parameters'. "At least the bullpen has been addressed."

After 3 trades and more than a dozen players switching teams, is this team really any better than in March - not even factoring in the injuries?
MatO - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#261501) #

They should solve the bullpen issues for this year and next, though. That's a plus.

Maybe, but how does trading better offensive players and replacing them with worse offensive players make you better?  I think the plan is to go with a 13 or 14 man pitching staff.  These extra position players were just getting in the way of the grand scheme.

scottt - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#261502) #
Well, if AA doesn't need to sign risky relievers in the winter, it's certainly an improvement,
hypobole - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#261503) #
Snider couldn't be set up for success much better. Pirates play 9 more vs Cubs w/o Dempster, 9 vs Brewers w/o Grienke, and 6 vs the Astros.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#261504) #
Maybe, but how does trading better offensive players and replacing them with worse offensive players make you better?

Last time I checked the Jays were the highest scoring team in baseball, accomplished without any meaningful contributions from Snider or Thames.
fozzy - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#261505) #
Well, if AA doesn't need to sign risky relievers in the winter, it's certainly an improvement,

If we're sitting here in January debating "Thank God we pounced on Brad Lincoln, David Carpenter and Steve Delabar so we don't have to try and get guys like Darren Oliver and Coco Cordero," the only 2 free agent relievers AA signed last winter, then something will be seriously wrong.

Lyon, Frasor and Villaneuva may also be gone, so it's still quite possible there will be a risky signing of a reliever in the off-season.

Steve Delabar is no less risky than Jon Rauch was, except now there is no depth if the kids flop. Unless they're planning to use Happ in the role or ride Loup into the ground, I don't see a long reliever on this team either.

Nigel - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#261507) #
These trades make sense if you have determined that you don't have the budget or the inclination to spend money on Fraser, Lyon, and Villenueva (or their ilk) in the offseason.  Replacing those 3  with Happ, Delabar/Carpenter and Lincoln would save you about $10m over the 3 above next year and they will (I think) give you fairly comparable production.  Now saving that money has come at some considerable expense in talent (in my view).  The question is to what end?  To keep the budget low or to better optimize how the budget is spent?  That's the question.
MatO - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#261508) #

Last time I checked the Jays were the highest scoring team in baseball, accomplished without any meaningful contributions from Snider or Thames.

I hope AA isn't using that logic when making trades.  Maybe he should trade Gose and Marasnick as well for more relievers because they haven't contributed either.

Matthew E - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#261509) #
Don't be silly. There aren't any more relievers.
Mike D - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#261510) #

Look, like it or not, the bullpen is part of a major league team.  Like with any other roster component, you want average-or-above players, preferably not in decline.

If you want any average-or-above player in or approaching your prime, there are three ways to get it:  (1) development, including drafted/signed amateur players and past trades for prospects; (2) overpay in dollars for big league free agents; (3) overpay in young talent via a trade.

Jays ownership has ruled out (2), definitively and inflexibly.  That leaves (1) and (3). 

(1) has failed with respect to the bullpen, in part because of injuries (although I do think that there was a bit of a penny-wise, pound-foolish approach to the Jays' pitching staff -- relying on young, cheap starting options have really taxed a lot of arms, both SP and RP).  The Jays have not successfully groomed power arms in the high minors for the bullpen, and most of the exciting arms in the system are still in the low minors -- and most, if not all, of them are still being groomed for a potential starting role.  Having the AAA affiliate in Las Vegas also really hurts on this front -- very hard to evaluate AAA performance (and, if you're a pitcher, to develop confidence) in such a skewed environment.  But (1) won't work for all positions in all years -- not for any organization.  There will always be some gaps in the pipeline.

So you need to take option (3) if you want a controllable twentysomething reliever who's been lights-out this year.  I'd rather them use (2), at least occasionally on short-term deals, more often to avoid having to always drain depth from the system.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#261511) #
Gose throws 95 and  Sierra probably throws 97, so he's got plenty of internal options.  But, I've heard this teenager in Washington has a terrific arm.  I can't figure out why they have got him wasting away in the outfield. 
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#261512) #
Right, Mike D.  It's just that Casey Janssen has done a perfectly good job as an ace, and Darren Oliver has done an even better job as a set-up man.  I had no difficulty with the Happ/Lyon trade because the club needed some immediate help to support Janssen and Oliver.  But, these moves are way beyond that.  The slots after #4 in one's pen are not as important as your starting left-fielder. 
fozzy - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#261513) #
Last time I checked the Jays were the highest scoring team in baseball, accomplished without any meaningful contributions from Snider or Thames.

How's that worked out for them this year? .500 team? Arencibia is now hurt, Morrow is still out, Bautista is still out, D'Arnaud misses a chance for a September call-up, Rasmus, Escobar and Johnson have all been in a terrible slump, and something like 2/3 of the rest of the games are against +.500 teams, including an August of Oak/TB/NY/CWS/Tex/Det/Bal/NYY/TB - that is every game after Seattle, which just wiped the floor with the highest scoring team in baseball. We still have 4 series against the Yankees.

*After checking, the only teams we play under .500 are the Mariners again in September and the Twins in October.

The relievers added to this team will amount to 1, maybe 1.5 WAR the remainder of the season. A .500 season will be the result of the stars aligned.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#261514) #
"I hope AA isn't using that logic when making trades. Maybe he should trade Gose and Marasnick as well for more relievers because they haven't contributed either."

it's fair enough to call this a bad trade if you think the guy(s) we gave up are going to be above average players at some point, but the logic of trading from a strength to address a weakness is usually pretty sound, IMO.

and I'm not sure when "relievers" became an epiteth. the bullpen is important. it pitches 1/3 of your team's innings, and most of the high leverage ones. improving the bullpen improves the team.

it's already been nice to upgrade to Lyon and Happ, I imagine Lincoln and maybe Delabar will have a similar effect.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#261515) #
If we assume that these moves are more about 2013 and beyond than 2012, then it makes more sense to have some extra relief options. Frasor, Lyon, Villanueva and possibly Oliver (through retirement) may be gone after the season. Santos is a question mark for next year, and Perez may be rehabbing for most of the season. There is a lot of RP depth right now, but a lot of that is going to disappear after this season. It looks to me as though AA is trying to get ahead of the curve.
Hodgie - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#261516) #
If the sky is falling in Toronto but in Calgary it doesn't make a sound does the world really end?
grjas - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#261523) #
I have come to the conclusion that no one on the box has a day job..

I don't have a problem trading from depth- outfielders- for pitching talent. However, i share the frustration on not finding a package that will garner a top 3 starter. It's becoming clear that this is a seller's market for half decent relatively young starting help. A lot of teams other then the Jays had the same wish list and came up empty.

I wonder if AA has concluded he's better to take a shot on carlos v or lincoln as an SP and use the other in long relief.
King Ryan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#261525) #
That Jays fans and Pirates fans both seems to be livid over this trade means it was probably an even one.

Look, I get it. A lot of us are attached to Snider. I remember being on this website when it was announced the Jays had used their first round pick on a high school hitter; I was excited. It was surprising and meant he must be some kind of player. I remember tracking Snider's stats when he was in rookie ball and A ball. I remember going to milb.com to check New Hampshire box scores to see how Snider was doing in AA. I remember being excited when Snider was promoted to AAA Syracuse. The truth is, a lot of us have been eagerly awaiting the domination of Travis Snider for a long time and have been somewhat invested in his success. We've followed his professional career closely since he was a teenager and there's a certain level of attachment that comes along with that.

But you also have to face reality at some point. Snider is still young, but despite what some will say, he has had several opportunities at the big league level and he's never been able to take the ball and run with it. The truth is that unless he's going to be Adam Dunn v2 (a very unlikely event,) he probably just strikes out too much to be highly successful at the big-league level. The idea that he is a substantially better hitter than Eric Thames is just not an idea that is supported by much evidence, unfortunately.

I mentioned it already, but this reminds me a lot of Josh Phelps. Like Snider, a lot of us were extremely excited about Phelps and had a certain level of attachment to him. He was a young hitter with power, who struck out a lot but put up brilliant numbers in the minors. A lot of Jays fans were absolutely FURIOUS when Josh Phelps was traded and made the same comment that he wasn't given a fair shake, etc. And let's be honest, while it ultimately wasn't a trade that helped us any, it also isn't one that Jays fans are ruing much today. I am not saying Snider is necessarily Phelps, but I think some perspective is needed and at least Brad Lincoln figures to help us more than Eric Crozier did.

Best of luck to Snider in Pittsburgh.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#261527) #
The idea that he is a substantially better hitter than Eric Thames is just not an idea that is supported by much evidence, unfortunately.

Yeah.  I mean presumably Snider has a much, much higher upside and much more talent and potential than Thames, but the fact of the matter is, what he's actually done as a hitter in the bigs is a lot closer to Eric Thames than, say, Carlos Delgado.  Not every prospect works out.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#261549) #
Wow, that is a weird lineup against Vargas- Lawrie, Rasmus, Encarnacion, Cooper, Escobar, Johnson, Davis, Mathis, Sierra.  The splitting of the lefties seems to be the #1 priority for batting order, but why you would have Cooper hitting cleanup against Vargas I really don't understand.  He is called up late. He is not put in last night.  And then boom, clean-up against a lefty.  I don't get it. 
dan gordon - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#261552) #
That is a very weak looking batting order.  I can't believe they made those trades yesterday and didn't also pick up an outfielder.  At least for a while the team was able to overcome some weak pitching with a big offense.  Until Bautista comes back, they're going to have trouble scoring, and even afterwards, I think they're a little short on offense.  David Cooper hitting cleanup?  That would be terrible against a righty - against a lefty it's, well, my vocabulary fails me.
MatO - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#261554) #
If you want something really scary then look at the Las Vegas lineup.
China fan - Tuesday, July 31 2012 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#261556) #
Congratulations to Moises Sierra on his first major-league hit, in his first major-league plate appearance.

He also ran through his first major-league stop sign at 3B -- and managed to score his first major-league run on a face-first slide.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#261573) #
That Jays fans and Pirates fans both seems to be livid over this trade means it was probably an even one.

My impression is that most Pirates fans think it was a good trade.
Lylemcr - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#261580) #

"Quick, someone tell the Yankees they aren't really contending as long as they keep playing Raul Ibanez."

And next year the Jays can have Ibanez for bucket of balls to play left field.

What I mean is that Thames is not going to be the player that we can build around.  7th/8th hitter at best.  We can always pick up an Ibanez like player in the offseason.  I like Thames, but the team is not going to be decimated because of it.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#261627) #
"My impression is that most Pirates fans think it was a good trade."

decided to take a look at one of the busier pirates boards....http://www.pittsburghsportsforum.com/forum/showthread.php/14375-Brad-Lincoln-for-Travis-Snider...no idea if it's representative or not...and not that I think fan opinion means much either way....here's all quotes...


- Don't know if I like it , but hope for the best. I thought Brad Lincoln was going to be a mainstay for years to come.

- I didn't want to see Lincoln traded as I figured him for the next closer, especially not for a guy like Victorino. Snyder is only 24 and seems to have power potential. Hopefully he can stay healthy and start to hit what is claimed to be his overall potential which from what little I have read is something like a .280/23 hr/80 rbi's

- I don't know much about Snider, but some guy at work broke the news of the trade to me and he seemed real excited about it, because he has Snider on his fantasy team.

- I see this as a good move for next years team but a terrible one if the front office wants to make a run this year. This is a double edged sword....We gave up a shutdown reliever off of this years team for an unproven outfielder that might be good in a year or so. summary....Im not happy, I want an honest effort to go deep this year without sacrificing next year. I guess that we wont be acquiring a serious outfield bat in the next couple hours, if we do They need to replace Lincoln as a shutdown right handed reliever along with Tony Watson's role of left handed reliever that hasn't been addressed yet

- Lincoln for what amounts to another triple A call up. Tell me how this moves the team to the playoffs. Snider may turn out to be a player - in 2013 or beyond - but for 2012 this is dumpster diving.

- guess the FO dont think this year is the BIG year

- I wouldn't be surprised if Snider wasn't turned around and sent out somewhere else, but I'm pretty certain we're not done yet...will be an interesting day...I hope.

- Snider may turn out to be a good player. Have no idea. Lincoln seemed to have found a position in the BP. Not glamorous but necessary. Now that he's gone, NH's task is to keep the BP stocked, which he has a pretty good track record of doing. If all the drafting of pitchers we've done over the last few years is as good as proclaimed, I say it's time for the young draft picks to step up. Whether that translates into success the rest of this year is anyone's guess. I'm looking forward to the view.

- Quick tell me who the Blue Jays corner outfielders are... Thats why he hasnt played more.
Doesnt mean he wont make a contribution this year. And he really cant be worse than Ludwick last year.
This move is for today and the future.

- I think when it all gets said and done, this is going to be a steal for the Pirates. I know that Brad Lincoln looked very good at times this year, and just when you started to get comfortable and start to think he was dependable, he would have those games where he would be up in the zone and unable to command his breaking ball. We die hard Pirate fans tend to overrate our pitching prospects, but how far is Lincoln going to go with a fastball that maxes out at 92/93? His curve is sharp and could be devastating, but unless he develops and starts to throw a plus changeup, he will be limited to middle relief. Still, I am thrilled he is in the AL where he cannot hurt us. Travis Snider is a true hitting prospect. He was drafted out of HS in 2006 - 10 picks after Brad Lincoln in the 1st Round. He played a little in 2006 but not much. In 2007 he played in Lo A as a 19 year old and hit well. Then in 2008 as a 20 year old, he played in Hi A, AA, AAA, and then in Toronto. In 2009 he started in AAA and hit .337 with 14 HR's in 175 AB's, and went straight up to Toronto where he batted .241 with 14 doubles and 9 HR's in 241 AB's. In 2010 he was injured and started in AA for 80 AB's and then straight to Toronto where he batted .255 with 20 doubles and 14 HR's in less than 300 AB's. He struggled in 2011 which probably led to his trade this year. Still only 24 I think he will develop into a LH power bat from the OF, and definitely somebody who needed a change of scenery. He has only 2 years of MLB credited service, and I am not sure he will be charged with a full year in 2012 which will delay the beginning of his arbitration years, and give us at least 4 years.

- The thing that was difficult with Lincoln is that he looked like he was developing into a closer, to which you only need a couple of pitches for that. His reliever ERA was 0.50. the guy was ridiculously good out of the pen. So it was tough giving that up but, Relief pitching has been something that Huntington and before him, Littlefield were able to find. It's nice to develop closers but set up guys that "could" be closers are out there everywhere to be had. I like the trade. Giving up a relief pitcher who might not ever max out as a closer for a good young potential power hitting corner outfielder is a decision you make every time. You have to
MatO - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#261628) #
The last comment in the Pirate thread is dead on.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#261629) #
Camp facing Snider right now.  It's a full moon, all right.
scottt - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#261634) #
That's from the team that traded Bautista for Robinzon Diaz.

It's hard to accept, but Pittsburgh overpayed for Snider, because they needed a left fielder now.

greenfrog - Wednesday, August 01 2012 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#261635) #
Didn't Pittsburgh's pre-Snider LF's have a collective OPS somewhere in the 500s? Even if he posts an OPS of 750 or so (with respectable defense), that's a major upgrade.
92-93 - Thursday, August 02 2012 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#261644) #
"Giving up a relief pitcher who might not ever max out as a closer for a good young potential power hitting corner outfielder is a decision you make every time."

Ding ding ding. It's the same thing we all said when the Jays traded away Stewart, Rzepczynski, and 3 first round draft picks for Rasmus & a 5.5m bill.

Lincoln can turn into Mariano Rivera and I still wouldn't understand the philosophy behind the trade.
MatO - Thursday, August 02 2012 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#261657) #

What's even worse is that the Jays did the same thing twice in one day.  I know some people don't like Thames but I'd rather try and catch lightning in a bottle with him than have to trot out Davis (not good) and Gose (not ready).

Ryan Day - Thursday, August 02 2012 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#261660) #
Lincoln can turn into Mariano Rivera and I still wouldn't understand the philosophy behind the trade.

The philosophy is easy to understand: The Jays don't think Snider is likely to achieve his high upside. It could be wrong, but the rationale is straightforward.
MatO - Thursday, August 02 2012 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#261682) #

The philosophy is easy to understand: The Jays don't think Snider is likely to achieve his high upside.

You're just assuming that.  Maybe the thought process was that they liked Snider but they really wanted an 8th inning guy to shore up the bullpen and that was the price they were willing to pay.  Now there's a scary thought.

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