Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
The Blue Jays are in the Lone Star State to square off against the Rangers in the final leg of their eight-game road trip.



Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Tuesday at 8:05 pm ET - Mark Buehrle (13-6, 3.45) vs. Derek Holland (1-1, 3.68)
Wednesday at 8:05 pm ET - David Price (12-4, 2.40) vs. Colby Lewis (14-5, 4.29)
Thursday at 2:05 pm ET - Marco Estrada (11-7, 3.27) vs. Yovani Gallardo (10-9, 3.25)

The Rangers return home after winning a four-game series in Detroit 3-1. Before that, they won five of their last six at home by sweeping Tampa Bay and taking two of three from Seattle. That puts them at 64-59, 3-1/2 games back of Houston for first place in the AL West but 1-1/2 games ahead of the Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota for the second Wild Card spot.

The Blue Jays are tied for first place in the AL East thanks to Houston losing a walk-off to the New York Yankees. Both teams are tied with 69-55 records. The Jays took two of three from Texas at The Dome in late June.

Marcus Stroman is a step closer to returning from his knee injury after pitching a simulated game on Monday. And so what if we're not in September yet, the Jays brass are thinking playoffs. Richard Griffin has a story about the defensive impact made by Troy Tulowitzki.
Blue Jays @ Rangers - August 25-27 | 266 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
85bluejay - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#309829) #
Hamstrings can be lingering - I was hoping the Jays rest Martin for the entire series.
christaylor - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#309830) #
85bluejay - I agree. I am now hoping Martin gets a light workload in September because Gibby seems to be giving into his will to play (understandable but not sustainable).
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#309836) #
This should be a tight series with two teams fighting for first. The Rangers are only two back in the loss. Those seeking insight about the Rangers and their farm could do worse than checking out Jamie Newberg.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#309837) #
it really is crazy how good cola's approach is.

the guy really doesn't have a weakness up there. i thought early on he was swinging on breakers in the dirt but he seems to have stopped doing that (including ball 1 in this at bat).

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#309838) #
Martin seems to be a lot better, but Bautista's shoulder is obviously still sore. 
Kasi - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#309839) #
Not the best time for Dickey and Buerhle to revert back to early season form. I hope Stroman is back soon. Only so many 5 ER starts we can overcome.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#309840) #
Martin played most of last year with a sore hamstring. Had a DL stint in April and missed a few games in September.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#309842) #
Martin actually missed a month ending late in May last year.  He's been catching Dickey this year and hasn't had an extended period off.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#309843) #
every jays pitcher tonight looks rusty and a bit off. too many off days.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#309844) #
Tulo! Poetic justice for the blown call on ball four.
scottt - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#309845) #
Tulo's heating up.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#309846) #
not even the umps can stop this jays juggernaut.

what a fricken team.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#309847) #
Why was Martin catching Buehrle?
JB21 - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#309848) #
Osuna Matata
Lylemcr - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#309849) #
This year, I feel like the game can win every game, no matter the score....

Loving the Jays this year!
uglyone - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#309850) #
I am head over heels in love with El Terminador.

huge huge win tonight against a red hot team. i had written it off with the bottom of the order due in the 9th. silly me.
jjdynomite - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#309851) #
Roberto Al-ovar.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#309852) #
Why was Martin catching Buehrle?

Because you don't sign a catcher to an $80 million contract because of his defensive skills and then have him catch just two of your five starters. Navarro's got Estrada, Thole's got Dickey. Martin gets the rest.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#309853) #
It's nice to say good-bye to the bad luck of the early season.

Osuna only had his fastball today, but that was more than enough.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#309854) #
One game lead.  Gotta love that one run come from behind win.
JB21 - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#309855) #
Especially with Price on the mound tomorrow.
scottt - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#309856) #
1 run game wins on the road are just as important as blow out sweeps.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#309857) #
Huge props to Cecil. 21 straight scoreless appearances. No more than one hit any of those 21. A total of one walk his last 20 appearances.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 25 2015 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#309858) #
So... after the deadline, I was thinking: "Well, well, well. If the Jays can just cut the Yankees' lead to three games by the end of August, September should be really interesting."
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#309859) #
Because you don't sign a catcher to an $80 million contract because of his defensive skills and then have him catch just two of your five starters. Navarro's got Estrada, Thole's got Dickey. Martin gets the rest.

Until the last 4 starts of the Season, Navarro should catch Buehrle because they do very well together. Buehrle and Martin are still a work in progress at a time something surer is much needed. I'd have put Martin on the D.L. as soon as Thole arrived, two weeks of not stressing the injury is worth more than his ego or his contract. And I'm sure that contract will be brought up very often. When no other reason is given, the contract must justify.
Kasi - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#309860) #
If healthy (and we have nothing to say that he should go in the DL) than Martin is the catcher. It's not like Navarro is lighting the world on fire with his bat. Also one of these guys will be here next year and one won't. Mags is right, Martin is the starter and he gets the majority of the games.
Kasi - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#309861) #
Also a lot of Beurhle's best starts have been pitched by Martin. I don't think the stats support much of a division for preferred catcher here.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 12:35 AM EDT (#309862) #
Wasn't that the Rangers' Closer they beat.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#309863) #
Martin's been doing something very unusual this year. Because it's actually been quite a long time since a team's number one catcher also caught a knuckleballer on a regular basis. Catchers generally get the living daylights beaten out of them just for existing - I think I once said that by June, a catcher's body is one gigantic bruise - but it turns out that just trying to catch the knuckleball also beats the crap out of you. On top of the normal abuse that goes with the position.

Martin has done a truly excellent job of catching Dickey this season. But in hindsight, it was probably not the best idea. Catching that damn thing really is a job that should best be done by a specialist. I think Martin would have had a better year (on both sides of the ball) if he hadn't had to expend so much work on just one of his pitchers.

You may recall that Jason Varitek never caught Tim Wakefield if it was at all possible to avoid it. If you ever saw Varitek try to catch Wakefield, you'd understand why. I remember seeing Varitek attempt to catch Wakefield once, in some strange late game situation, and the results were hilarious, in ways not normally seen on a baseball field.
King Ryan - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 03:32 AM EDT (#309864) #
@Magpie, I remember that game.

I can't seem to get a basic link to work in this here Interactive Magazine, but this is the game I'm pretty sure:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200410180.shtml

Wakefield entered in the 12th inning, Varitek caught the entire game and in the 13th we witnessed:

- G. Sheffield Strikeout Swinging, Passed Ball; Sheffield to 1B.
- H. Matsui Groundball ForceOut at 2nd.
- B. Williams, Flyout.
- J. Posada, IBB, Passed Ball, Matsui to 2B
- With Ruben Sierra batting, Passed Ball, Matsui to 3B, Posada to 2B.

To be fair, he did get through the 12th and 14th without incident, and he caught Wakfield a few other times in the 2003 and 2004 post-seasons without incident, but, yes, that inning was funny.
China fan - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#309866) #
Tulowitzki now has an OBP of .343 in his last 7 games.  He's still not hitting much for power in that stretch, but at least he's getting on base.  Which should placate the people who wanted him moved out of the lead-off spot.

Buehrle and Dickey are the ones that I'm concerned about now.  It's nice that they are able to survive their early-inning woes and battle deeper into games, but the Jays offence won't always be able to salvage victory for them. Still, they've usually been able to bounce back from poor games in the past. Let's just hope it happens soon.  The Jays have 3 off days in September, which might help them a little.  And then there's Stroman, but I don't think we should be counting on anything from him until we see how he does in Buffalo. And the Jays are emphasizing that Stroman still has to pass another round of medical checks after his Friday sim-game, before he can be approved for Buffalo games.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#309869) #
The object come playoff time is to identify one's five best pitchers and make sure that they get the great majority of the work.  Price, Osuna and Sanchez are three, as of this moment, with the other two spots up for grabs. If healthy, Stroman will be the fourth. 

As for the rest of the season, I anticipate that Dickey and Buehrle will allow about 4 runs per game.  I don't put too much stock in hot and cold streaks for either of them.  With this club, four runs allowed per game or thereabouts should be just fine from both. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#309870) #
In other news, today is David Price's birthday.  He turns 30, but nonetheless I still trust him for the playoffs. Now, let's see how many runs his teammates will gift him with tonight.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#309873) #
"Tulowitzki now has an OBP of .343 in his last 7 games."

Ben Revere has an OBP of .484 in his last 7 games. Personally, I'd bat Revere 1st, Tulo 5th, but I do agree Buehrle and Dickey are bigger concerns. Although to be fair the recent poor outings were on the heels of much longer streaks of effectiveness.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#309874) #
The first thing that struck me watching last nights game were the massive amounts of empty seats. The Rangers had been playing great recently, taken hold of the 2nd WC spot, had pulled to within 2 games of the Astros in the loss column, yet only drew a bit over 22,000 last night.
China fan - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#309875) #
"....I anticipate that Dickey and Buehrle will allow about 4 runs per game...."

Yes, but 4 runs in how many innings?  Recently they've been allowing 4 or 5 runs in just 5 or 6 innings, which leaves the team in a hole.

Still, I do like their chances of turning it around.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#309876) #
My major concern with Buehrle is the steady decline in his swinging strike rate to under 5% this year, leading to the lowest K rate in the major leagues this year.  Tommy John managed to succeed with Buehrle's profile, but was better able to get batters to beat the ball into the ground.  Buehrle's ground ball rate has gone up quite a bit this year, and with this infield defence, that is a big plus. 
China fan - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#309877) #
"....Ben Revere has an OBP of .484 in his last 7 games....."

Both he and Tulo have been improving lately, which probably only means that nobody should have worried too much about their early stats in a Toronto uniform, when both have such a long record of success.

The good thing about the Jays this month is that the offence has rallied when the starting pitchers were poor, and the pitching has been excellent when the hitters have slumped.  (A nice change from the early-season frustrations when it seemed to be the exact opposite.)  The bullpen has been the most consistently strong asset.  A team can go very far on a strong bullpen, David Price, and a powerful lineup from 1 to 5 (with frequent contributions from the bottom of the lineup too).
Kasi - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#309878) #
Tulo is fine at leadoff. I like them putting Revere at 7 or 8 since he can be behind the slow guys and is less likely to hit into double plays with them on base.

I do worry about Dickey and Buerhle, maybe even moreso on Buerhle. It's not going to be impossible to win this division with them playing mediocre, but it will hurt. I'd rather have recent Hutchison and I'd certainly rather have Stroman. Just hope both can do the quality start metric down the stretch. 6 ip, 3 ER is something I can live with. If everything goes fine with Stroman I expect him to be back in the rotation by mid September.
Lylemcr - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#309879) #
I am going to get ahead of myself here, but September is going to be exciting! To play games that mean something in September is exciting, but to have 13 of the games against Yankees and Red Sox, even better....

Indians -2
Orioles -3
Red Sox -3
Yankees -4
Braves -3
Red Sox -3
Yankees -3
Rays. -3

The only thing better than September baseball is October baseball....
Jevant - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#309880) #
Yeah I was floored by that as well.  I mean, the Rangers are a bit of a surprise this year, but at this point in the season, how aren't they putting a few more butts in the seats?
Dewey - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#309882) #
how aren't they putting a few more butts in the seats?

Would it matter if it was the amount of butts or the number of butts,  (hypobole)?

Sorry.  Sort of.  Can’t help myself.
JB21 - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#309883) #
At this point, they'd prefer any form of butts.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#309884) #

pubster - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#309885) #
"....Ben Revere has an OBP of .484 in his last 7 games....."

I wonder if this is just a streak or if he's elevated his game to another level!
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#309886) #
Sorry. Sort of.  Can't help myself.

Shave and a haircut, two butts.  Apologies to toons everywhere.

The blank post above results from a technical glitch which arises from time to time when I attempt to quote from another poster.  I don't know why.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#309888) #
no need to use a "last 7gms" split for Tulo.

he's got a .340obp and 103wrc+ as a Jay, and .346obp and 105wrc+ on the season. and of course his career numbers are way better than that.

revere also has a tidy .341obp as a jay but onky an 83wrc+, while his season marks of .335 and 93 are pretty much in line with his career marks.

and boy am i glad tulo came up with 2 outs in the 9th.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#309890) #
Okay, Dewey, I'll play along, even though I'm the "seat" man and Jevant seems to be the "butt" man.

For ticket sales, they would want a greater number of butts.

For food concession sales a greater amount of butts would seem to be the target demographic.

That's my opinion, no ifs, ands or....
hypobole - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#309891) #
Mike, when I copy and paste from an outside source, the comment box goes blank when I preview.

So I copy and paste the preview back into the empty box, then submit comment.

Works every time
uglyone - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#309892) #
yeah doublecheck the preview box. sometimes it clears itself. re copy and paste into the window on the preview page (not the reply page) like hyppbole said.
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#309893) #
Turns out all is not bliss in the Blue Jays/Sportsnet relationship. Apparently, Jose Bautista is boycotting Sportsnet TV interviews, until Sportsnet pays Devon Travis for a suit or buys him a store credit. At the beginning of the season, Sportsnet did a 'rookie buys his first suit' show, which was the network's idea, and Hazel Mae and a cameraman took Travis to a mens' store where he got a suit. Jose thinks that Sportsnet should pay. Some Carleton professor thinks Travis should pay or else it would be purchased and thus tainted journalism. John Lott's tweet summed it best when he noted this episode has nothing to do with journalism as anyone knows it. I think Sportsnet better pony up. But him a store credit. Sorry for the trivia, back now to the bigger stuff.



http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2015/08/26/blue-jays-jose-bautista-boycotting-sportsnet.html
Jevant - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#309895) #
Awesome.
Jevant - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#309896) #
If you didn't already need reason to love Bautista, here's just one more.  I absolutely loved that article, and the way Bautista and Travis are dealing with it.  SN has gotta be kicking themselves for this coming out.
Jevant - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#309897) #
have reason, not need reason
hypobole - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#309898) #
Sportsnet did a 'rookie buys his first suit' show

Should have called it the 'Sportsnet hazes rookie' show.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#309899) #
Last thought on the Bautista boycott story in the Star, (which is also happens to be linked in Buster Olney's ESPN Insider Blog).

Just like 'Manny being Manny', this seems another case of 'Rogers being Rogers'.



Chuck - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#309900) #
Some Carleton professor thinks Travis should pay or else it would be purchased and thus tainted journalism.

Journalism. Good one.

hypobole - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#309901) #
On the other hand, in line with that professor's broad definition of journalism, we should be able to title ourselves baseball analysts.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#309902) #
we should be able to title ourselves baseball analysts.

Or even nuclear physicists.

Chuck - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#309903) #
Shave and a haircut, two butts. Apologies to toons everywhere.

Maroon.

Actually, the etymology of two bits and pieces of eight is quite interesting. Not Rabbit of Seville interesting mind you.

rtcaino - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#309905) #
Yankees down 5. Fans booing as they get hit around in the 5th.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#309906) #
As Houston leads the Yankees 5-0 (huzzah), I realized that "Astros" is not the greatest team name although I would like to see the Astros play the Argos in the battle of the Nauts. Two quarters of football followed by 4 innings of baseball- with the football scores divided by 3. 
uglyone - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#309907) #
https://youtu.be/OoASZyihalc
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#309908) #
The first thing that struck me watching last nights game were the massive amounts of empty seats. The Rangers had been playing great recently, taken hold of the 2nd WC spot, had pulled to within 2 games of the Astros in the loss column, yet only drew a bit over 22,000 last night.

Just FYI: today is 1st day of school for many school districts here in the Bay Area of California (it's for giving high school students more classes this year before nationally-mandated tests are taken); others had it yesterday, most will have it sometime this week. Not sure if Texas has a similar schedule. No way, no how do I go to an A's game yesterday with my young kids, even if the Jays are in town.

Also, NFL pre-season has started, and I'm sure things are ramping up for high-school football. From what I understand, high school football in Texas is more important than hockey in Canada. And I've said before that I would trade the Jays' two world series flags in exchange for Gretzky having played one season for the Leafs (back when they actually had a chance to sign him in the 90s). Baseball seems like an afterthought in Texas for when there's no football available (middle of summer), and its window has closed. Also, the Rangers are TRYING to get to a playoff spot, after having slumped badly early on. I'm sure many people are just now realizing that the Rangers might actually have a chance this year, and that it might be fun to go to a game.
scottt - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#309910) #
Gibby is in heaven down here in Texas where everyone understands him and people look at the rest of us as foreigners with a funny accent.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#309911) #
Gibby is in heaven down here in Texas where everyone understands him

yep

BlueMonday - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#309912) #
"Also a lot of Beurhle's best starts have been pitched by Martin. I don't think the stats support much of a division for preferred catcher here."

I spreadsheeted Buerle's starts, and the results surprised me:

Martin catching Buerle:
GS 17, W-L 8-6, Team W-L 9-8, IP 110, H 120, ER 50, BB 16, SO 57, Strike %age 67, ERA 4.09, WHIP 1.24

Navarro catching Buerle:
GS 8, W-L 5-0, Team W-L 6-2, IP 55, H 50, ER 16, BB 9, SO 21, Strike %age 64, ERA 2.62, WHIP 1.07

Did Navarro catch the easier teams? I don't think so: Bal, TB, Wash, Mia, NYM, KC, Min, Oak, while Martin caught: Balx3, TB, Cle, NYY, Hou, Seax2, Min, Texx2, Bos, CWS, KC, Oak, Phi
jjdynomite - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#309913) #
I, too, was surprised at the lack of fans at "Globe Life Park" (ugh), except for two World Series losses in brutally Washingtonian fashion, followed by Washington's awkward midseason Ashley Madisonian resignation, followed by a Darvishian season-ending Tommy John surgery, would leave pretty much any baseball fan jaded. The fact that the Rangers finished dead last in 2014 doesn't help.

The Rangers were 2nd in the league in attendance in 2012 and 2013 so this is a pretty recent slump, explained by the aforementioned depressing scenarios.

P.S. See-yah, Yankees!

Kasi - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#309914) #
ERA and whip are pretty arbitrary there. I know one of those Navarro Buerhle starts had 4 unearned runs. I'd like to see the FIP/xFIP before we start drawing any conclusions.

And I do think the Martin side is rougher, in fact considerably so. A lot of the teams cancel out so that leaves Wash (anemic other than Harper), Mia, Mets vs Bal-2, Cle, NYY, Sea-2, Tex-2, Bos, CWS and Phi. The most dangerous teams by far on the list are Yankees, Texas, KC, Houston, Baltimore, Boston and Cleveland. (all of them are top 10 in fangraphs oWar except for the Os who are 12th) Martin has caught Buerhle for 10/12 of those starts. That's significant.
Kasi - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#309915) #
Oops Rangers are a bit lower than I thought. Still they're about the best of the rest in that list, they're just not quite as good offensively as I thought. Anyway Martin has gotten the lion's share of the rough starts.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#309916) #
Woohoo. 6-2 Houston over NYY. Just what we Jay fans want to see. 1 1/2 game lead now. Magic number of 36 now :) Fun to watch that number shrink in a good way for a change.

If the Jays win today their lead will be the biggest this year at 2 games. July 3rd was the Jays last day in 1st last year, July 14th in 2000. Next goal is the 3 game lead they peaked at in 1989, 3 1/2 in 1987 (Sept 26th...that year still hurts), 5 game lead in 1992 for a peak, then the 8 game lead they reached in 1993 & 1991, 9 1/2 in 1985 (biggest lead ever in Jays history).
uglyone - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#309917) #
nice work Blue Monday but i wonder if we could get some babips and fips in there.

"Did Navarro catch the easier teams? I don't think so: Bal, TB, Wash, Mia, NYM, KC, Min, Oak, while Martin caught: Balx3, TB, Cle, NYY, Hou, Seax2, Min, Texx2, Bos, CWS, KC, Oak, Phi"

Runs Rank:

Navarro: 8, 9, 11, 14, 15, 21, 28, 29
Martin: 2, 3, 7, 7, 8, 8, 8, 9, 10, 11, 15, 20, 25, 25, 26, 27, 29

that actually does look significantly tougher in the martin matchups.
BlueMonday - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#309918) #
Thanks for the input re teams they each have faced, better to look at hard numbers than my cursory scan.

Where can I get BABIP data? I just copied the pitch stats from the MLB site. For the FIP, the formula contains a constant value derived from league BB, HR, etc - are these values available easily? Unfortunately, work beckons (after a great afternoon off watching the Yankees fall), so I am not sure I can get to this soon!
uglyone - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#309919) #
fangraphs has the data and its all easily exportable.

but it may be easier to reverse engineer the fips.
grjas - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#309920) #
Gibbons a lot more comfortable with Goins now if he's starting the runner..
uglyone - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#309921) #
been a while since we had a pitcher take this long between pitches.

stresses me out.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#309922) #
Possible Verlander isn't washed up?
Magpie - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#309923) #
Actually, Verlander's been pitching very well indeed for a while now (1.67 ERA in his last 6 starts, although he's somehow gone just 1-3).
uglyone - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#309924) #
yeah it's looking kinda legit too.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/is-justin-verlander-back/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-if-justin-verlander-figured-it-out/
Lylemcr - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#309925) #
That is filthy!!!!

This lineup is crazy. Grand Slam!!!

uglyone - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#309926) #
I couldn't have been less surprised by that salami. this team is a wrecking crew.

and he actually thought he popped it up.
jjdynomite - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#309927) #
You almost expect EE to blast it every time out, but it feels kind of mean when Smoak and Pillar get in on the act. Looking at 2 games up on the Yanks after tonight. WOOT!
grjas - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#309928) #
It's not over yet.

Yeah it's over.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#309929) #
Tabler and Martinez are cautiously advancing the notion that this is the best offense in franchise history. Which is obvious to everyone here. But its not at all obvious to the casual fan (or even the casual journalist), who are far more numerous. You have to bring them around to it...
uglyone - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#309930) #
those WS teams are so long ago they've passed into legend and its near sacrilege to make a comparison.

my less baseball-nerdy friends always object when i bring it up.

even more controversial is when you follow that up with "and hey - this pitching staff is better than those WS teams' too!".
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#309931) #
Is there anything better than a post- grand slam Edwing out in full display?
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#309932) #
those WS teams are so long ago they've passed into legend and its near sacrilege to make a comparison.

my less baseball-nerdy friends always object when i bring it up.


I've noticed the exact same thing. Those 92 and 93 teams were so long ago, and the Jays haven't done much since, that they've become legendary and people think they were superteams with rosters full of nothing but superstar hall of famers.
JB21 - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#309933) #
The 9 hits are nice but gotta love the 10 walks.
scottt - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#309934) #
So far 12 runs on 9 hits and 10 walks. You might as well just pitch to contact.
grjas - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#309935) #
No the pitching staff isn't better but i think the defence and the overall team may be given the dominance of the offence. Too early tell.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 26 2015 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#309936) #
WAR here is an average of fwar and bwar. ERA- is kinda like the reverse of era+.


Price '15: 60era-, 6.5war/32gs
Guzman '92: 66era-, 6.5war/32gs
Guzman '93: 91era-, 3.9war/32gs

Stroman '15: ---
Cone '92: 79era-, 4.9war/32gs
Hentgen '93: 88era-, 2.9war/32gs

Buehrle '15: 89era-, 3.0war/32gs
Key '92: 88era-, 3.5war/32gs
Stewart '93: 101era-, 1.9war/32gs

Dickey '15: 105era-, 2.0war/32gs
Morris '92: 101era-, 3.3war/32gs
Morris '93: 141era-, 0.2war/32gs

Estrada '15: 86era-, 3.0war/32gs
Stottlemyre '92: 113era-, 1.2war/32gs
Stottlemyre '93: 112era-, 2.1war/32gs



Osuna '15: 47era-, 2.2war/65ip
Ward '92: 49era-, 1.8war/65ip
Ward '93: 49era-, 2.5war/65ip

Sanchez '15: 33era-, 1.9war/65ip
Henke '92: 56era-, 1.2war/65ip
Cox '93: 71era-, 1.2war/65ip

Lowe '15: 47era-, 1.8war/65ip
Stieb '92: 52era-, 0.8war/65ip
Eichorn '93: 62era-, 1.1war/65ip

Hendriks '15: 56era-, 1.5war/65ip
Wells '92: 92era-, 0.6war/65ip
Leiter '93: 80era-, 1.0war/65ip

Hawkins '15: 63era-, 1.4war/65ip
Timlin '92: 103era-, 0.5war/65ip
Castillo '93: 77era-, 0.9war/65ip

Cecil '15: 81era-, 1.0war/65ip
Eichorn '92: 108era-, 0.4war/65ip
Williams '93: 100era-, 0.5war/65ip

Schultz '15: 68era-, 0.4war/65ip
McDonald '92: 109era-, 0.2war/65ip
Timlin '93: 107era-, 0.1war/65ip


The '92 staff is comparable but the '93 staff really isn't.
John Northey - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#309937) #
With tonights 12 runs the Jays move ahead of Boston for runs scored in the 2nd half. Boston had 197 Jays 190 before tonight. Now Boston is at 200 and Jays 202. Jays won the first half in a laugher with 486 vs Yankees at 409.

For runs allowed the Jays are tied for #1 in the AL in the 2nd half with 109 allowed vs Houston 109 next is Tampa at 149. Quite the improvement from the first half when the Jays were #13 out of 15 allowing 404 vs 317 for KC.

And that is why the Jays are right now the scariest team in baseball. Woohoo!
King Ryan - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#309938) #
The "Simple Rating System" on bb-ref has had the Jays on top pretty much the entire season, based on their run-differential and strength of schedule; it basically suggested the Jays were a much better team than their record long before all the trade deadline craziness.

It now has the Jays on top by pretty much a wide margin. There's a bigger gap between the Jays and second-place Houston than there is between Houston and sixth-place Baltimore. And it will go up tonight.

Pretty cool.
John Northey - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#309939) #
As to run differential...
Best in Jays history 1987: 845 scored, 655 allowed = 190 spread.
Next 1985: 759 vs 588 = 171 spread.

2015: 688 vs 515 = 173 spread.

So right now the Jays have a bigger spread than any year other than 1987 as tonight passed 1985 (the year they won 99 games).

This year is 2nd in runs per game scored at 5.46 #1 is 2003 (near end of the steroid era) at 5.52, #3 is 1999 5.45 (middle of steroid era).

This year is 7th in runs allowed per game at 4.09, #4 is 1989 with 4.02 and is reachable. #1 is out of reach 1985 when the Jays allowed just 3.65 runs per game (would need to allow fewer than 2.2 runs per game the rest of the way).
Richard S.S. - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#309940) #
Relentless.

That's the word that best describes this team. No one gives up, no matter the count, no matter the score, no matter who's hitting, no matter who's pitching. Relentless.
King Ryan - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 01:02 AM EDT (#309941) #
And over the last 25 games they're 21-4, outscoring opponents 158-78.

To get a sense of how hot they've been, if they were this hot for 162 games it would be a 136-26 record, scoring 1,024 runs and allowing 505, a 519-run spread!

So yeah, been a pretty good stretch of ball.
85bluejay - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 01:44 AM EDT (#309942) #
I hope there aren't too many hangovers tomorrow from celebrating David Price's birthday - it would be a shame to end this road trip on a down note.
China fan - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 05:41 AM EDT (#309943) #
After another big victory and a widening lead over the Yankees, it's hard to find anything to discuss, except "wow"!  But in the interests of trying to provoke debate, here's one question:  who should the Jays demote to make room for Hutchison on Saturday?  I guess it has to be Carrera, since the Jays definitely need 3 catchers at the moment. Carrera will probably pass through waivers again and can be recalled to Toronto after 10 days.  So until Sept. 1 (when the Jays will presumably call up a 4th outfielder among the expanded roster players), their emergency back-up outfielders will be Goins, Colabello and Pennington.  (Pennington did play 29 innings in LF for Arizona this year.)  It's only a few days, so the risks are minimal. 

Another question:  Anthopoulos says the Jays will add 6 to 8 players when rosters expand.  Who would you pick?  I'd go with 4 or 5 pitchers (definitely Loup, Tepera and Delabar, and then maybe Francis or Redmond or Rowen or Jenkins) plus definitely Kawasaki and Hague and an outfielder (maybe Heisey or Hassan or Fields).   Pompey is an interesting case -- the Jays have made it clear that they want him to get everyday ABs, so maybe they leave him in Buffalo until the end of the season (Sept. 7) and then recall him.  Better to have him hitting in Buffalo than sitting on a bench in Toronto for those 7 days.  On the other hand, if Carrera is demoted to make room for Hutchison, and if Carrera can't return until around Sept. 10 (the DFA period plus the 10 days), then Pompey is clearly a better 4th outfielder than any of the other options in the minors, so maybe he gets promoted purely because he's the best option, regardless of the Jays desire to give him everyday playing time for his development.

There's also the argument that Pompey should play some CF in Toronto to give Pillar a break.  That's a reasonable argument, since Pillar has played more games than virtually anyone else in the majors this year, but it's also true that Pillar has suddenly come alive with the bat.  Over the past 7 games his slash line is .345/.367/.483.   Would the Jays want to disrupt that streak?  Probably not.  And frankly if there's a chance that Pillar might be close to figuring out how to become a consistently good hitter, that's an important goal for the future of the Jays, so you want Pillar to have every playing opportunity.  So if Pompey is promoted on Sept. 1, he might do a lot of sitting. 
scottt - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 06:23 AM EDT (#309944) #
If Pilliar has heated up during this stretch with lots of off-day, how would that be an argument to make him play 7 days a week?
whiterasta80 - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 07:01 AM EDT (#309945) #
I think that the Tulowitzki at bat against Andrew Miller a couple weeks ago was a metaphor for this team.

They just make you work, and more often than not teams end up making mistakes (although miller didn't in this particular case).

As for who to call up. I think you have to call Jenkins, Loup, and Hague. Once buffalo is done you should call up Francis too. You definitely reward the organizational depth in years like this.
Jonny German - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 07:51 AM EDT (#309946) #
Per Shi Davidi on Twitter, AA says the tentative plan for Stroman looks like this:

Fri Aug 28: Sim game
Wed Sep 2: Start at single-A Lansing
Mon Sep 7: Start at AAA Buffalo

That lines him up for September 12 in New York. I can imagine they may not want to throw him into the fire like that (as much as he of course will want to be there), so maybe he starts September 15 in Atlanta.
Jonny German - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#309947) #
I think sending Carrera down to make room for Hutchison would be fine. It also wouldn't bother me if it's Thole that's sent out. The schedule lines up nicely so that Martin would only have to catch 1 Dickey start before Thole could be recalled.

As for call-ups I think Hague, Pompey, and Loup are locks (plus Thole or Carrera, assuming one of them is in AAA to start September). I do not believe that Pompey will somehow be damaged long-term by not playing every day in September. And I think it's very likely that he's the best option for 4th outfielder in the playoffs.

Tepera and Delabar are good enough to recall, but the question is whether or not the team bothers when they will get close to zero playing time.

Kawasaki has a chance, though there's no real reason to play him over Goins or Pennington. But maybe they want to keep him in game shape in case of an injury and Travis not making it back this year.

I think Francis has an outside shot simply because he's left-handed. Could be useful to have a 3rd LOOGY around.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#309948) #
Three more walks for Goins last night. Is it possible that pitchers are pitching around him to get to Tulowitzski instead ? Seriously, though, Goins is turning into a real ball player. It was mentioned on the broadcast last night that the Jays are about 20 games over .500 when he is in the lineup, and he has currently a streak of over 200 chances without an error. He and Travis have really filled the black hole that used to be second base.
grjas - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#309949) #
Uglyone, it's always a bit dangerous comparing one year stats of players against each other. As one simple example, compare estrada's era+ to the World Series yankees of 53, and you'd say he's as good as Whitey Ford. 

In a game 7 in the World Series, I'd be more than happy with the "92 and '93 versions of any of Guzman, Cone, Hentgen (well the '93 version anyway), Key, Stewart or Morris.  On the current Jays, I'd be happy with Price of course, I'd be cautiously optimistic with Beuhrle, nervous with Estrada, and having panic attacks with Dickey or (not that it would ever happen) Hutchison. Stroman of course is an interesting one....the Stroman of the last half of last year would be awesome, but he is still inexperienced and has 12 months of rust, so don't think we can hope for too much.  As to the bullpen, this year is very strong but still inexperienced. They need to show they can continue to win the big games. And for depth pieces, personally I would take Eichorn or Timlin over any of the guys below Osuna and Sanchez based on their careers at that time.

Anyway, I can't really argue with your overall conclusion that this team may be better than the World Series teams. The offence is at a different level, and when Goins and Smoak are on the bags, infield defence is otherworldly.  Time will tell of course...let's hope they track to ''92 and '93 and not '85- a team that was right up there with the best of them.



Chuck - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#309950) #
Goins' 2013/14 combined playing time is slightly ahead of what he has logged in 2015 (314 PA to 295). Combined, they add up to about a season's worth of near full time play.

In the first "half", his K/BB was 72/7. In the second "half", it is 54/29. That's a hell of an improvement.

Jonny German - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#309951) #
It was mentioned on the broadcast last night that the Jays are about 20 games over .500 when [Goins] is in the lineup

I thought that sounded a bit fishy, as it would mean the Jays have had a terrible record with Travis in the lineup. But it checks out - they've gone 26-36 in games where Travis has made an appearance. In Goins' games they've gone 55 - 39. That's a little short of "about 20 games over .500", but maybe it's accurate when you take out games where he's been a defensive sub or pinch runner.
China fan - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#309952) #
"....If Pilliar has heated up during this stretch with lots of off-day, how would that be an argument to make him play 7 days a week?...."

You're suggesting that Pillar heated up BECAUSE of the off-days?  If so, that would solve a lot of hitting slumps.  Just give someone a couple of off days, and he magically begins hitting.

In any event, nobody suggested that Pillar should play 7 days a week.  There are 3 off days in September, and there will be at least one or two extra outfielders on the expanded roster, so Pillar definitely won't be playing 7 days a week.  My point was that Pillar has gotten hot again and it's not necessarily the best time to be benching Pillar to make room for Pompey several days a week.
Sister - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#309953) #
Making a case that this offense is better than 93 would be a challenge, though I am not sure what the best metric would be to compare the hitters in the two eras.

If you look at WAR (again, I am not sure what the best metric is), the 2015 Jays can't compete with a top five of:

Olerud 7.7
White 6.2
Alomar 6.1
Molitor 5.7
Fernandez 3.0

They represent four of the top 10 WAR in the AL that season.

I would love to see a more in-depth article on this with better metrics.

China fan - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#309954) #
"....I do not believe that Pompey will somehow be damaged long-term by not playing every day in September. And I think it's very likely that he's the best option for 4th outfielder in the playoffs...."

Nobody said he would be "damaged long-term by not playing every day in September."  However, the Jays clearly prefer to have him playing every day in Buffalo now, rather than sitting on the bench with the Jays.  That's a decision about his development.  If that's the decision that they make in late August, it might equally be the decision in early September.  There's no sign that they desperately need him now, so they might prefer to let him play every day from Sept. 1 to 7, and then promote him to the majors. 

As for playoffs, I fully agree with you, he's the best option for the 4th outfielder in the playoffs.  But he doesn't need to be promoted by Aug. 31 to be on the playoff roster.  He's already on the 40-man roster, so he qualifies for the playoffs (under the 2014 rule change). 
pubster - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#309955) #
If AA was trying to save his job with his trade deadline moves then I think it worked.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#309956) #
They are only 6 games back of the Royals now.  Eyes forward.

The improvement in the defence since the break has been the biggest single change.  Revere for Colabello and Tulowitzki for Reyes have changed the club from an average one overall to an excellent one.  The two great offences of my memory are the Big Red Machine of the mid 70s and Harvey's Wallbangers of 1982.  Both teams had fair pitching (with the BRM having Don Gullett who was roughly a less durable David Price).  The runs scored per game chart vs. league for the Jays 2015 and these teams is:

Team RS/Game League/Game RS Index
RA/Game
League/Game RA Index
15 Jays 5.46 4.31 127 4.09 4.24 96
82 Brew 5.47 4.48 122 4.40 4.48 98
75 Reds 5.19 4.13 126 3.62 4.13 88
Dave Till - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#309957) #

Making a case that this offense is better than 93 would be a challenge, though I am not sure what the best metric would be to compare the hitters in the two eras.

I was thinking about this question this morning. I think it's a bit like comparing apples and oranges. The 1993 Jays had hitters with much higher averages, and reached base more. But the 2015 Jays have more pure power hitters - there's about six guys in the lineup who will ruin your ballgame if you make one mistake against them.

I think the simplest rating is runs per game. The 1993 Jays scored 5.23 runs per game, which was great, but didn't even lead the league (the Tigers were at 5.55). The 2015 Jays have been scoring 5.46 runs a game, which leads the league by rather a lot (second is the Yankees at 4.67). And 1993 was a better year for hitters than 2015 - the league average was 4.71 runs per game in '93, and is 4.31 now.

So I'd say that the 2015 offense is better. It certainly feels that way to me - I don't recall ever seeing a team anywhere hit like this ever.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#309958) #
To continue with my comments on the chart.  The current club is, in my view, undersold by the seasonal chart.  The improvements at the deadline were of great significance on the run prevention side.  I see little difference between this club and the 1975 Reds in character.  They are not going to win 108 games as the BRM did obviously.  They are clearly a better club than Harveys Wallbangers on both sides of the ball.
hypobole - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#309959) #
Goins change in approach at the plate has done wonders, but so has the acquisition of Pennington, allowing Gibby to shield him from lefties.

There is enough in Buffalo to check most every box that's needed, save one. The Jays have a plethora of RH relief pitching but no true LOOGY to face tough lefty hitters in crucial situations.

Luckily, Cecil has been effective against both righties and lefties, but Loup has been doing a Joe Btfsplk impersonation this year and Francis' soft-tossing flyball tendencies and lack of platoon splits make him a scary proposition in that role. The best we seem to have is Girodo in AA, but I'm guessing his call-up chances are 50-50 at best.
pubster - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#309960) #
If the Jays win the World Series this year, then their offence is better than the '93 team.

If they don't win the World Series then the '93 team's offence is better.

I think that's what its going to boil down to.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#309961) #
The Jays in 1993 scored 5.23 runs per game with a league average of 4.71.  They scored fewer runs in a much, much more favourable environment for hitters.  The top three hitters were great (Olerud, Alomar and Molitor).  Devon White was a fabulous player.   On the other side of the ledger, Borders and Sprague contributed less than Goins and Pillar, and the 93 bench was downright horrid (there were no Colabellos lurking there, that's for sure).
bpoz - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#309962) #
Well said pubster. Now even further back in Jay's history there was a team that won 99 games I believe.
They are not remembered by many. They are not legend. The memory of that team will simply keep fading.
uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#309963) #
grjas you're right about much of that.....which is why i slotted in estrada alongside Stottlemyre even though his numbers compare better to cone/hentgen.

but i think in every which way buehrle and dickey are great comps for key/stewart and morris. i don't think there's any reason to question that.

and more importantly neither of those WS teams had a pitcher like Price. a consistent elite studhorse ace. guzman was great but mercurial, and cone at least at that point hadn't yet become that dependable ace either (if he ever did). Price gives us something those teams never had, imo.

and again i think we may underrate exactly how good our bullpen is right now, and especially what osuna and Sanchez are doing.
hypobole - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#309964) #
Sorry, pubster, I have to disagree. Winning the World Series involves offence, defence and pitching, so is a poor barometer to use when strictly talking offence. And that's in addition to the fact winning the WS involves a lot of randomness and luck.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#309965) #
The 85 team that won 99 games was of a completely different character.  Great pitching and defence was its hallmark.  The four most valuable players on the club according to bWAR were Dave Stieb, Jesse Barfield, Jimmy Key and Doyle Alexander, and about half of Barfield's value was with the glove.  Tony Fernandez was, of course, spectacular at that age. 

It's a thin line between winning a World Series and losing it.  The 75 Reds won in Game 7 on a bloop hit by Joe Morgan in the ninth (they had played the Red Sox about as even as you can prior to that game- one blowout win each, two one-run victories each).  The 82 Brewers took a 3-1 lead to the bottom of the sixth inning (in a game started by Pete Vuckovich- their "ace") but the Cardinals bullpen proved superior. 

Sister - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#309966) #
I will always remember 1985 fondly.

The composition of the 1987 team was fun in retrospect, with the killer outfield, a prime Tony at shortstop, and aging and less than adequate Upshaw at first, with a DH Platoon of Fred McGriff and Cecil Fielder....crazy.

Our big stretch drive acquisitions that year were Mike Flanigan (whose first start as a Blue Jay I attended), and Juan Beniquez, who was very "clutch" for us that year (and who was my favorite Jay for some reason).

That bullpen had Henke, Eichhorn, Musselman, Cerutti, and young David Wells and Duane Ward. 

What a heartbreak....

A good lesson that we should never get too ahead of ourselves with respect to the playoffs.

uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#309967) #
some offense comps:

2015: 114wRC+ (#1), 5.46f/g (#1, +31.1% above mlb avg)
1993: 109wRC+ (#3), 5.23r/g (#3, +21.9% above mlb avg)

wRC+

Donaldson 158 - Olerud 179
Colabello 149 - Henderson 151
Bautista 140 - Molitor 144
Travis 137 - Alomar 142
Encarnacion 135 - Fernandez 114
Martin 109 - White 109
Tulowitzki 104 - Carter 108
Revere 92 - Sprague 85
Pillar 83 - Borders 72

Smoak 97 - Knorr 98
Carrera 95 - Coles 85
Goins 78 - Schofield 49
Navarro 64 - Griffin 25


PeteMoss - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#309968) #
I would suspect Roemon Fields gets called up as well just to pinch run when needed.
Kasi - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#309970) #
I don't think its a stretch to say an occasional off day (whether forced by schedule or by manager choice) for an all out player like Pillar could help his offensive numbers. I think its fairly well documented that giving any positional player an occasional day to recuperate, rest his legs, collect his thoughts, etc will make him more fresh over a long season. For a long time there Pillar was playing every day and the Jays were playing every day and I think he just got warn down.

I would not mind if we could do that occasionally for Donaldson or Bautista. We are already doing it for Tulo and Martin. Would help if we could cycle some of those guys through the DH position, but our roster construction with EE doing what he does makes that difficult.
Intricated - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#309971) #
Looking at oWAR (BBref), 1993 had 4 offensive all-stars in Olerud (7.5), Alomar (7.0), Molitor (5.9), and White (4.6).  Fernandez (2.7) and Carter (2.2) help, but 4 others with small negatives (-0.2/-0.3) and Ward/Jackson bringing up the rear (-0.6/-0.7) weighs down the team to 31.5 full year.

This year to-date, we have Donaldson at 6.1, but it tails down to merely a very good bunch of Bautista (3.5), Martin (2.7), Encarnacion (2.6), Colabello (2.6), Travis(!) (2.4).  Pillar at 1.5 (and Reyes had 1.5) are notable too.  What helps the team is no blackholes 1 through 9: a handful at -0.1 and the worst at Saunders -0.2, keeping the team total to 25.8 with games to go.

So as others said, the '93 gang had a lot going for it in the top 4 carrying the load. The current squad is deeper with more solid bats and is carrying less stinkage.  Both can win playoff berths, but which one is more likely to go All The Way?

Parker - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#309972) #
You're suggesting that Pillar heated up BECAUSE of the off-days?

Is this so hard to believe, that a player starts hitting better after a long slump that coincided with playing almost every inning all season? Your phrasing sounds to me like you feel the very idea is absurd and not even worth of consideration.

If so, that would solve a lot of hitting slumps. Just give someone a couple of off days, and he magically begins hitting.

Strange generalization - nobody is suggesting that a rest is a "magical" cure for all hitting woes. Are you really taking the position that a defensive-premium player (especially one who makes ROUTINE diving catches) wouldn't benefit from a rest now and then?
uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#309973) #
have to agree, Sister, that '87 team was THE team and unfortunately they choked in a massive way. that was probably the end of Stand Pat Gillick as suddenly he became WheelerDealer Pat and completely transformed that team into a completely different world series team a few years later.

and pubster tells no lies when he mentions that in the end, WS matters more than anything. in fact when comparing this offense to past jays offenses there are a few jays teams from the 97-03 period that might want a word.
uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#309974) #
intricated careful there with WAR. it's a cumulative stat after all.

that's like comparing current HR numbers to the 1993 season long HR numbers. we still have near a quarter season to go here.
China fan - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#309976) #
"....Are you really taking the position that a defensive-premium player (especially one who makes ROUTINE diving catches) wouldn't benefit from a rest now and then?..."

Nope, I certainly do think he would benefit from a rest now and then.  I guess we're just debating how much of a rest.  He does get the rest days that the team gets. (Several rest days in August and several more in September.)  He will be spelled occasionally by whichever outfielder is promoted next Tuesday.  He can be spelled by Revere too.  What I don't see is a rationale for saying that Pompey's promotion is justified purely by the need to give an occasional rest day to Pillar.  And anyway we're just debating whether Pompey should be promoted on Sept. 1 or whether he should be promoted on Sept. 7.  Not a huge difference.
Kasi - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#309977) #
It's nice when your team has the luxury of a strong lineup and can spell your players occasionally. I don't think its been needed the last 10 days since the Jays are currently getting plenty of days off. But back last month when they weren't I think it would have been valuable to give Pillar or Bautista an occasional day out of the outfield. But we had no bench then so it wasn't possible.

The problem with running your starters all the time is generally not immediately seen. After all they're playing and since they're your best players you probably win more. But if they get nicked up or get worn down than a DL stint or a two week time where they go .100/.100/.200 like Martin just did is probably a worse idea than strategically giving them a day off now and then. I don't think it needs to be a lot, but just lets say not playing anyone more than 155 games, giving 7 days off throughout the season to rest and recuperate should not hurt the team overly much, especially one as deep as Toronto.
hypobole - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#309979) #
From ESPN. Jays this year have scored at least 6 runs in an inning thirteen times. Next best are Orioles and Angels with nine each. Mariners and Phillies - zero.
Intricated - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#309980) #
Hence my "keeping the team total to 25.8 with games to go".  Certainly, it's possible the current team accumulates more oWAR to surpass the '93 team, but I think the makeup of how they can get there (a deep lineup of good to very, very good performing bats) is different than how the '93 team did (bunch of all-star performers outweighing the middling hitters).

Of course, counting regular season WAR doesn't consider the lineup's construction at any given point in time, and obviously how 1-9 looks for the playoffs is worth so much more than how it was before then.  Henderson > whoever was a major upgrade (on paper at least; not that good actually hitting in the '93 playoffs), and Fernandez was a nice June pickup (and hit in the playoffs).  Tulo probably better than Reyes, Revere is debatable on offensive value over the group in left before him.
uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#309981) #
Kasi i still don't get why you think the players have been overworked. Pillar is literally the only player on the team i see a possible argument for this being true.

as for september callups.....my guess:

Locks:

Hitters: Thole, Pompey, Kawasaki
Pitchers: Loup, Delabar, Tepera

and Hague, Copeland, and Francis are all posibilities too.
Kasi - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#309982) #
The number for 10 runs in a game are even more pronounced. Jays with 20, O's and Angels with 12.
grjas - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#309983) #
and again i think we may underrate exactly how good our bullpen is right now, and especially what osuna and Sanchez are doing.

Yeah I have to say osuna and Sanchez have to be the two most pleasant surprises for the Jays since the emergence of Bautista and EE...may be even more so given their age. High leverage in the 8th and 9th inning is about as stressful a situation as a team athlete can get outside the playoffs, and Osuna's poise in particular is astounding for one so young. Hopefully this continues right through the playoffs.

And I know this may be irrelevant to the purists, but it's great to watch players having fun again. Much as I like Bautista as a player, his temper tantrums in previous years were tiresome. Watching Price, Stroman, Donaldson and others thoroughly enjoy themselves, to me, raises the entertainment value of the team. Brings back many fond memories of little league...
uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#309984) #
fair enough. though 25.8 does pace out to 33.2 on the year.

but also remember that oWAR includes positiinal adjustments, so doesn't give a familiar picture of the makeup of the lineup you're implying (i.e. it says martin is a better hitter than ee this year). myself i'd stick with ops+ or wrc+ to get that picture...and imo i think we see not only that this team matches that team in elite bats but has better depth as well.
Kasi - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#309985) #
I think Bautista could definitely have used a day or two off as well. He's still very good, but his numbers are way down from last year. And his shoulder is a mess right now as evidenced by the throws he's not capable of making. So a day or two at DH in there could have been valuable for that.

As for Donaldson we all love him and think he's indestructible, but it's a long season and I think several days off for him wouldn't be a bad thing either over a full season.

Fact is that its good practice to give occasional days off to players to keep them fresh. This is hardly rocket science here. No one would allow a Cal Ripken streak to happen anymore because we now know that's not good for late season performance. Yet right now Donaldson is on pace for 160 games. It's not needed for this team, give the man an occasional day off. I'm not saying play him only 140 games, but I think 156 compared to 162 gives a day off a month over a long season, allowing the team to break up spells where the team plays like 14 straight days.
92-93 - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#309986) #
"I would not mind if we could do that occasionally for Donaldson or Bautista. We are already doing it for Tulo and Martin."

Recently Gibbons said he intends to have his horses in the lineup every single day the rest of the way. I suspect that might change if they keep dominating and the Yankees slip away, but otherwise he'll stick to that plan. The stakes are simply too high for a manager who knows he is gone after this year if the team doesn't make the playoffs.
Kasi - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#309987) #
Sigh if he made that quote. Nice way to return to managing of the 70s. Better hope I guess that those guys remain fresh til the end of the year. Even if we could get them out of one of our blow out wins early that might be nice, although I'm sure the benefit of the half game is not near what the benefit is of getting a full game off.
hypobole - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#309988) #
Schedule shaping up nicely for the next week. We've missed Hamels this series (or maybe Hamels is lucky he missed us).

Miss the rejuvenated Verlander vs the Tigers, with Boyd, Farmer and Simon scheduled. No Kluber or DL'ed Carrasco in the Cleveland series, though we should face Salazar, along with Josh Tomlin and Cody Anderson.
pubster - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#309989) #
If the Jays dont win the WS this year, then I bet the '93 team had a better offence because they were more clutch in key situations.

ie. Carter's homerun.
Jevant - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#309990) #
Yeah, big break in the Cle series for sure - I was thinking facing 3 of Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco, Bauer would have had the potential for a rough series.
hypobole - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#309991) #
Jays were lucky to face the 93 Phillies, with a bullpen worth a combined 1.0 fWAR on the year. This years Phillies bullpen is at 2.4, 1.8 with Paps removed.

Can't be bothered to check how many runs the 93 Jays scored against the pathetic dreck in the Philly pen, but I remember it was a lot.
Dave Till - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#309993) #

have to agree, Sister, that '87 team was THE team and unfortunately they choked in a massive way.

I would rate the 1985 team higher than the 1987 team. The '85 Jays had better starting pitching and a deeper offense. But this may just be my personal bias: I enjoyed watching the '85 Jays more. The Jimy Williams Jays were a bit crankier, from what I recall reading.

As for choking: they had just lost Fernandez and Whitt to injury, which enabled the opposition to pitch around Bell. Without two of their best hitters, the bats died: they scored 2, 4, 3, 2, 3, 2, and 0 runs during those last seven games.

Before the Jays went 3 1/2 up on September 26 (after a seven-game winning streak), the Jays and Tigers had never been more than 2 1/2 games apart since August 2nd. The second-last game of the season went 12 innings. It was one amazing pennant race, even if it turned out badly.

If the Jays dont win the WS this year, then I bet the '93 team had a better offence because they were more clutch in key situations.

I think it's worth emphasizing: the postseason is a crapshoot. It takes 162 games to sort out good teams from bad, so a series of 5 or 7 games means nothing. If the Jays make it to the ALDS, their season counts as a total success in my way of thinking.

uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#309994) #
Kasi i think Gibby has done a great job using the DH as you apparently want him to to get his players rest. bautista has 33gms as dh this year, donaldson 6, and martin 5. 9 times this year gibbons has rested his mvp either as dh or out of the lineup. how much more do you really want your mvp rested? martin has been taken out of the C spot 33 times this year already. bautista has been out of rf 44 times.

and i think if you're hoping that the best players get frequently rested during a playoff race like this then your priorities are off and you'll be waiting in vain.

jjdynomite - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#309996) #
Considering mlb.com has the Jays at a 99% post-season probability with 73% winning the division, 92-93, I would argue that Gibby (and by extension AA for hiring him and sticking by him) will be viewed as a disappointment if the team doesn't win the ALDS, let alone make it. With the likelihood of Price tabbed to start 2 of those up-to-5 games, I think most Jays fans at this point would be upset if they don't make the ALCS/top 4 teams.

Whether the Jays flaming out in the ALDS (or, ugh, the Wild Card play-in) could Gibby his job is up to the new President. Of course if it's AA, Gibby likely stays to give it another shot next season, hopefully with Price or another ace.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#309997) #
Bautista has had one game at DH since the All-Star break and otherwise has been playing every day in right-field. He'll be turning 35 in October. At a minimum, you could DH him one day, put Encarnacion at first base and allow Pompey a game in the outfield when the rosters expand.  It would essentially be substituting Pompey for Smoak for a day, and so you could do that while "riding your horses" (no Roddy Doyle jokes intended). 
uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#309998) #
Games played

@OF: Pillar 125 (2nd), Revere 122 (6th), Bautista 84 (64th)
@3B: Donaldson 117 (6th)
@SS: Tulowitzki 104 (19th)
@2B: Travis 61 (29th)
@1B: Smoak 58 (30th)
@ C: Martin 93 (10th)

and iirc the only guy there with a DL stint has been travis.

i just don't get where this notion of overwork is coming from. i'd wager this is one of the least overworked lineups in baseball.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#309999) #
Today's lineup features Tulowitzki at DH, Pennington at second, Goins at short and Encarnacion at first base.  I imagine that the club will do the same thing for Bautista as it is doing for Tulowitzki at some point in September.  Pompey is almost surely a better hitter than Pennington against a RHP...
Kasi - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#310000) #
All of those appearances as DH were early in the year. Since EE has shifted to fulltime at DH Donaldson and Bautista have been in the field near every day. Martin occasionally gets a DH spot.

As for giving days off, well lets look at last year's world series participants. Giants and Royals each had one player play 162 games in Gordon and Pence. The rest were under 157. Funny enough both of those have battled injuries this year. Plenty of good teams, in fact a lot of the ones who win world series manage to find time to sit their regulars. Because there is value to having them fresh in October.

I'm not asking for frequent days off. I'm asking for one day off per month instead of none. Donaldson has had one rest day all year. Bautista has only had days off when he got injured or got his cortisone shot. Anyway not much point arguing with someone who doesn't believe players should be given a day off per month to rest.
jjdynomite - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#310001) #
Sorry, meant to say "could cost Gibby his job".

Interestingly, from Wikipedia, considering how the playoff-bound teams are currently positioned: "The Houston Astros and the Toronto Blue Jays are the only teams to have never played in the ALDS, Houston not having made the postseason since 2005 when they won their only pennant to date while still a member of the National League, and Toronto being the last team to win the World Series under the old 4 division format in 1993."
Jevant - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#310002) #
Little lost in this "Gibby should be sitting guys" is the reaction from the players if they are taken out of the lineup until the division is sealed.  With the number of off days, the DH rotation that is going on, and the tightness of the standings, I cannot imagine why I would be messing with a good thing going.  Everyone is going to have a few days to rest after the season before the ALDS starts.  Can't imagine what happens if they start resting guys and something happens and they miss the playoffs. The team is clicking doing exactly what they are doing right now.  I would be loathe to mess with that.
uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#310003) #
"Bautista has had one game at DH since the All-Star break and otherwise has been playing every day in right-field. "

one game at DH and 6 off days.

that's 7 rest days in the last 5 weeks.

Kasi - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#310004) #
The argument is that occasional days of rest throughout the season keeps players fresh and performing closer to their maximum. Yes the team is playing great now and I already said that lately with all the days off players were getting enough time off because the schedule has been friendly. But earlier in the year a day off for Pillar or Bautista would have been nice. No one is suggesting running multiple subpar lineups out there. We're just suggesting that over the long haul of a 162 games that an occasional day off will benefit the team more than hurt them.
uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#310005) #
"The argument is that occasional days of rest throughout the season keeps players fresh and performing closer to their maximum."

what team out there would you like us to emulate in this area?
grjas - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#310006) #
As for choking: they had just lost Fernandez and Whitt to injury.

For anyone who hasn't seen the Matlock slide that took our Fernandez, check it out on youtube below. There's hard nose plays, and there's dirty  plays. To me, this tracks more to the latter.

Imagine Bautista doing this in a game against the Orioles. World war 3.

Link below.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8tEZi-bHtU
Mike Green - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#310007) #
From September 4 to September 23, the Blue Jays have one day off.  If it were my club, I'd make sure that Bautista had at least one game DHing during that interval.  I'd try to give him a day off there too.  The Jays play the Yankees 4 times in Yankee Stadium September 10-13, have their day off and then go to Atlanta to face the Braves on the 15th-17th before facing the Yankees again at home from September 21-23.  I see a real plus to Bautista getting a day off on the 15th if at all possible. 
eudaimon - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#310008) #
Don't mess with something that ain't broken. This team is playing great and I don't see any reason why we should worry about rest time. There will (hopefully) be a bit of time for that in September, and it will be easier because of the expanded rosters.

Also, I suspect none of the players want to sit right now, and that's a good thing. Gibbons seems to be a players manager and gives them what they want, which in this case is to not take a day off. It's hard to say that any of the guys obviously need time off - Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion are all raking right now. Martin maybe, but he actually got 4 out of 5 days off last week which I think should be enough.
cruzin - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#310009) #
"i think Gibby has done a great job using the DH as you apparently want him to to get his players rest. bautista has 33gms as dh this year"

"bautista has been out of rf 44 times."


Oh come on ugly, that's misleading and you know it. For the vast majority of those games it had nothing to do with resting Bautista but rather that Bautista was incapable if throwing from the outfield. But that Gibbons felt an a 70% Bautista hitting was better than other options.
Dave Till - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#310010) #
Regarding rest: it's a tough call. The Jays are in a tight race; having their best players in the lineup whenever possible increases their chances of winning. There's not much point having rested players if they're just going to be playing golf in October. On the other hand, exhausted players won't be able to contribute at the end of the season. I guess I'm glad I don't have Gibbons' job, so I don't have to make those decisions - I'm a fan, so I can just second-guess them. :-)

My thought is that winning serves as a powerful cure for tiredness. I doubt that there are any Jays regulars who want to be out of the lineup right now, unless actual body parts are about to fall off.
cruzin - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#310011) #
In general the idea if resting players makes plenty of sense since the season is a grind. The fact that the regulars have played almost all the time was fine given the number of off days in August. Going down the stretch with very few off days is another story. At this point given we only have a 2 game lead I'd expect the starters to play pretty much all the time. Save the afternoon game after a night game on the turf at the Dome. If we are able to gain done significant separation between ourselves abc the yanks...then I would hope to see Gibbons rest sold of regulars in favour of getting done rest and let the sept call ups get some game action.
Intricated - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#310012) #
I agree pure offensive output (and relative to the league/environment) places the 2015 team at/better than 1993, though relative positional strengths gives us a sense of how they get there too (e.g. Martin has hit noticeably better than what Borders did, Donaldson is awesomer by playing 3B with the likes of Bryant and Machado to contend with, Olerud was the best hitting 1B in baseball over Thomas and then a bunch of very good first baggers).  Edwin and Jose are capable of being elite at their positions, but injuries/struggles have kept them behind their peers this year (much more so in the OF, much less so at DH).  It has been the depth that's kept the runs flowing.
cruzin - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#310013) #
Dang I really need to review my poss before actually posting since auto correct is making my above post barely understandable
John Northey - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#310014) #
I remember an old Bill James article about rest during Cal Ripken's streak. Basically it worked out to 1 day a month being ideal for rest for most ML players which seems reasonable. 1 a week is a bit much, less than 1 a month seems too little.

So playing them all everyday until the division title is won isn't a bad idea at this point with 35 games to go and 3 off days in September. With this teams offense there should be plenty of chances to give guys a few innings off here and there too.

As to call ups I figure we will see at least 1 IF, 1 OF (can play CF), all 3 catchers are up already, plus 2 or 3 pitchers. Not much point in calling up more than 3 pitchers as it is hard to get playing time as is for the guys here.

IF: Kawasaki (lock), Hague (likely), Travis on roster once ready to play
OF: Pompey (lock, might be a week later)
CA: Jimenez is the only one on the roster and is injured I think
P: Lots here, Tepera, Stroman, Loup, Jenkins, Hynes, Hutch, Delabar, Copeland all on the 40 man. Copeland had the best year in AAA (2.46 ERA in 113 1/3 IP), Francis isn't on the 40 man (2.46 ERA in 84 IP), Jenkins was good (2.93 ERA in 83 IP), Tepera has been untouchable in AAA (1.09 ERA in 33 IP, 10.1 K/9), Delabar almost as good (1.69 ERA in 21 1/3 IP, 11.4 K/9). If I had to guess I'd say Tepera & Delabar would be most useful, Loup back just because and maybe Francis for an extra LHP.
pubster - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#310015) #
Hey Cruzin,

Not trying to be a jerk, just curious. You wrote this in the Trades thread a while back:

"I believe most know my position on these deadline trades. I absolutely hate them. "

Do you like the trades now or do you think they will still end up biting them in the butt down the road.
budgell - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#310016) #
Donaldson risks taking a lot of days off by diving headfirst into 1st base.
Damn son, no, just.....no.
jerjapan - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#310017) #
The stakes are simply too high for a manager who knows he is gone after this year if the team doesn't make the playoffs.

Again with my personal bugbear.  92-93, can you demonstrate any evidence that this 'lame duck' concept is an actual thing?  People were saying this for a while with AA before the team took off, and I asked the same question then - what's the evidence that this happens? 

I am, of course, ignoring all the other potential problems with your statement to focus on the one that theoretically should be demonstrable - that there is a 'lame duck' effect, and here is the historical evidence of it.  *insert historical evidence here* 

Gibbons may or may not be gone, he may or may not know this fact, and he may or may not care.  It's certainly possible that he assumes his colleagues are too smart to be deceived with myopic, self-indulgent managerial decisions.   

I know that I frequently do things that are potentially detrimental to my career because I can't keep me damn mouth shut about what I think is actually the right thing to do. I am certain I'm not alone in this, and it's a quality that many people respect in others.  

Not trying to pick a fight - I would honestly love it if you are anyone could walk through a few examples of managers / GMs making clearly poor decisions to advance their short term career goals.  I just don't think the evidence exists in any meaningful way. 
cruzin - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#310018) #
"Do you like the trades now or do you think they will still end up biting them in the butt down the road."

Pubster,

Well obviously at this point in time, it looks like I was totally wrong and have egg on my face. Still, I believe if will be a few years before we can pass final judgement on the trades.

It's likely I made that statement after the Price trade and I fundamentally don't like rentals for top prospects, unless you have convincing evidence that you are only a player away from competing for WS. Being a .500 team with a large run differential isn't considered convincing to me. I didn't have issues with the subsequent trades since the Price trade signified an all-in. The team had performed way beyond even the most optimistic suggestions and it's coincided with the yanks struggles since the trades. As I said final verdict will have to wait for a few years, but like all fans I'm enjoying the ride.
uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#310019) #
"Oh come on ugly, that's misleading and you know it. For the vast majority of those games it had nothing to do with resting Bautista but rather that Bautista was incapable if throwing from the outfield. But that Gibbons felt an a 70% Bautista hitting was better than other options."

imo it doesn't matter why, just that he was rested, so needs less rest now.

and there's no way of knowing for sure but i'd guess that if he had been healthy enough to play RF all year gibby would have found him more rest days. after all he managed to find a good number of dh days for Donaldson and martin despite the fact that jose was forced to dh for a quarter of the year.
uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#310020) #
"Not trying to pick a fight - I would honestly love it if you are anyone could walk through a few examples of managers / GMs making clearly poor decisions to advance their short term career goals. I just don't think the evidence exists in any meaningful way. "

to advocate for the devil, we might look at cito using Ward for 100+ip in '92 to win a world series with an otherwise poorly performing bullpen.

though of course, IP counting wasn't as much of a thing back then.
cruzin - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#310021) #
"imo it doesn't matter why, just that he was rested, so needs less rest now."

Except that you have credit to Gibbons that he rested Bautista, which Gibbons had no choice in. Kind of hard to give credit when he had really no option or a decision to make. You're right that we have no way of knowing what Gibbons rest schedule might've been with a healthy Bautista, maybe he gives rest days or maybe he plays Bautista like he does Pillar. Anyway my point is simply that you shouldn't have given Gibbons credit as it related to Bautista since it was a decision taken out of his hands.
Ryan Day - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#310022) #
Ward was pitching 100+ innings a year out of the pen from 88-92, so there was nothing unusual his usage in 1992. It was more common in the era - just look at Mark Eichorn's workload in the 80s. Even Tom Henke was pitching around 90 innings a year for a while.

Cito started using Ward more frequently, for shorter outings, in 1991, and that might have been the beginning of the end for his arm. Or he might have blown his arm out anyway. Either way, it's tough to pinpoint the 1992 season as the cause.
Magpie - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#310023) #
Can't be bothered to check how many runs the 93 Jays scored against the pathetic dreck in the Philly pen, but I remember it was a lot.

Let me do that for you, and yes - it was a lot. The Phillies bullpen in the 1993 WS allowed 19 R in 19 IP. They went 0-2, 1 SV, 9.00 ERA. Not that the Jays bullpen (3-0, 2 SV, 6.00 ERA in 21 IP) exactly distinguished themselves.

Compare that to 1992. The Jays won two games against the Atlanta bullpen, who went 0-1, 1 SV, 3.00 ERA in 12 IP. And the Toronto bullpen was obviously the MVP of the series: 3-0, 3 SV, 0.49 ERA (1 ER in 18.1 IP)
Jevant - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#310025) #
Wow, we were talking about the attendance the other night.  It looks even worse today...there is nobody there.
Ryan Day - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#310026) #
I doubt that there are any Jays regulars who want to be out of the lineup right now, unless actual body parts are about to fall off.

But this is almost always true. Players want to play until they physically can't. Just look at some of the injuries Jose Reyes and Michael Saunders tried to play through this year. Jose Bautista only accepted DH duty because he literally couldn't throw a baseball.

These guys are intense competitors, so of course they want to play all the time. Starting pitchers never want to come out of the game, platoon players and bench players think they should be playing every day, and no one ever wants to switch positions.

It's up to the manager to find some way to say "What you want is not in the best interests of the team."
jerjapan - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#310027) #
to advocate for the devil, we might look at cito using Ward for 100+ip in '92 to win a world series with an otherwise poorly performing bullpen.

though of course, IP counting wasn't as much of a thing back then.

interesting to look back on relief pitching in 92 - much, much different usage patterns.  The infamous Joe Boever (Boever the saver) lead the league with 81 relief appearance - 111 1/3 IP effective innings with an ERA+ of 135.  Ex Jay farmhand Xavier Hernandez also had 111 IP with an ERA+ of 160, 148 the next year in 96 2/3 IP and then 6 more years of mediocrity before calling it a career.  Doug Jones lead the league for relievers with 111 2/3 IP - dude averaged 90 IP in his 16 year career with a grand total of 4 starts.  

Mel Rojas and John Wetteland were monsters in the back end of the Montreal pen but it was 93 that showed just how dominant the Expos closer could be - Wetteland notching 113Ks in 85 IPs, 70 games and a FIP of .185. 

Ward's 101 IP seem crazy with today's usage (Like Steib's 265-288 IPs from 82-85), but in the context of the era, nothing outrageous for a relief ace  His FIP is nearly a run lower than closer Tom Henke in nearly twice the IP, so perhaps Cito was ahead of his time.... 
christaylor - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#310029) #
Speaking of getting rest -- the hitters from both teams seem to be taking the day off.
John Northey - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#310030) #
Henke never reached 100 innings in one ML season. Twice in the 90's, 2 more times 70+ as a Jay. Only 5 times under 50, 3 were pre-BJ days (when Texas had no clue what they had) and once was with Texas as their closer post-BJ days. The other sub 50 was his rookie year here when he threw 40 IP in just under 1/2 a season (first game was Jays game #100 in 1985). Yup things are a lot different now. Imagine a kid coming up game #100 and getting 40 IP over 62 games for the team as the closer. We'd see so much screaming here it would be crazy.
China fan - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#310033) #
Another excellent game by Estrada today.  Seems like today should be a very winnable game for the Jays.  But maybe I'm getting too greedy these days.
christaylor - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#310034) #
Amazing -- different days, I suppose we have LaRussa and Eck to thank for then end of those days. I hope we eventually see a reversal in the trend of increasing reliever under-use specialization.

It will probably take a team to sticks its neck out and have success with the return of "the fireman"... a big converted starter, maybe at the end of his career?

Is there anyone who'd count themselves as a fan of the current bullpen use?

Ryan Day - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#310035) #
Even Eckersley looks like a workhorse by modern closer standards - in 1992, he averaged 1.16 innings per appearance. Osuna's pitching 1.03 innings per appearance; Sanchez hasn't pitched more than an inning at a time since returning to the pen. Most of the closers around baseball look the same.
hypobole - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#310036) #
"Is there anyone who'd count themselves as a fan of the current bullpen use?"

30 MLB managers.

Gallardo - 13.2 IP vs Jays this yr. 6 hits, 0 runs.

Hendriks high leverage issues crop up again.

christaylor - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#310037) #
"30 MLB managers."

Yes, but they don't pay to watch they game last I checked.

Bill James had some interesting ideas to disincentivize excess pitching changes (e.g., giving the batter a free 1-0 count).
John Northey - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#310038) #
I figure saying they can only change at the start of an inning or after a guy has given up a run would change things very, very quickly. Gibbons is working his way towards this now with his giving relievers a set inning each time.
uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#310039) #
hope we're all happy with our rested lineup.
Kasi - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#310040) #
Bautista has not looked very good this last few weeks in the field. Hopefully something he can bounce back from at least to being average defensively.
Kasi - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#310041) #
Nice strawman. I somehow doubt a Cola or Smoak switch for Pennington (which is the only difference between this lineup and the ideal lineup) would turn this game from a loss to a win considering how Gallardo pitched.
uglyone - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#310042) #
i fail to see the straw man.

we decided to play shorthanded, scored 1 run and lost a close game.
Kasi - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#310043) #
4-1 is not that close. Not close enough for one bat to make that big a difference. By your logic we should run out all regulars all the time no matter what. However it seems baseball has moved past that 70-80s way of thinking. I don't see a point in continuing the debate though. You're wanting part of baseball's past that is gone to come back. Gibbons is closer to that view than most, but even he doesn't blindly run out his starters every game.
hypobole - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#310044) #
To be fair, resting Tulo altogether would have worked best.
scottt - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#310045) #
Shorthanded where?

Martin has not been very good in August and probably needs the rest.

Cola at DH would have been better but since they're committed into not putting Revere in leadoff,  it might not have made a difference.



Kasi - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#310046) #
If we're not playing our best lineup every day, than we're playing to lose. Backups are just there if the starters get injured...
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#310047) #
I've tried to keep my criticism of Gibbons to myself in the last while, largely to allow the younger posters the joy of watching a competitive team without the observations of some geezer who thinks their present manager, a folk hero of sorts it appears, just isn't very good. But can we not all agree, leaving aside the obvious question of why he appeared as DH today rather than Colabello who is a natural DH, that using Tulowitzki as leadoff hitter has been an abject failure and the poor man needs to be moved to another spot in the order.
Four Seamer - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#310048) #
I've seen no more of today's game than the boxscore, but could somebody explain why Pennington wasn't pinch-hit for in the 9th?  I appreciate that in all likelihood would mean losing the DH, since Tulo would have had to have come on defensively (I'm assuming they had no intention of putting Martin at second base), but surely at 4-1 down that was a risk worth taking.  That also exposes the problem of giving Tulo the half day-off, as it limits your ability to pinch-hit for Pennington, whose offensive skills seem rather limited.
92-93 - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#310049) #
Jerjapan, your tone makes it seem like an impossible task to provide "evidence" of a manager or GM doing their job differently based on their contract status. None of the people in that role are ever going to come out and admit it, so we have to interpret things from their managerial history and their current activity.

You ask for clearly poor decisions that they are making as an example, but I wasn't criticizing Gibbons for riding his horses right now; Au contraire, I believe it's the right thing to do.

But I will bite. The Blue Jays were 1.5 games back of the division and above .500 on July 31st, 2014, and AA did absolutely nothing. The team was clearly pissed off as a result. They did nothing down the stretch. At the time, AA was under contract for the following season. When the Tulowitzki trade was made the Jays were 50-50 and 6.5 GB and probably 8 in the L column. You can argue that was a long term trade as much as it was for 2015, so let's throw out there the Price trade being made at 7 GB. Now, you can scream run differential around all you like, but 7 games is 7 games. It's hard to think that AA's job security and Beeston's impending departure didn't play a role in the difference in decision making between 2014 and 2015.

Brian Cashman signed a 3 year deal this off season, and he chose to sit on his prospects and not really augment the roster this year. Was it because he doesn't actually believe it's a real contender? If he wasn't under contract for 2016 and 2017, would he really have sat tight and hoped for the best?

It's easy to hand out back-loaded FA contracts like the Russell Martin one when you've been at your job for awhile with little on-field success - it either helps you keep your job or becomes the next guy's problem anyway. We were fed stories about his athletic prowess in the off-season, but it sounds like he has recurring hamstring issues. When he's making 20m in 2019 at 36, it aint going to be pretty.

If AA had just been hired, is there any chance whatsoever that Roberto Osuna and Miguel Castro start the season in the MLB bullpen?

Again, I don't necessarily think any of those are poor moves, and I'm thrilled he made the trades he did this year. I just have a very hard time believing that their job status doesn't have an effect on the way they actually do their job.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#310050) #
Thus ends Toronto's five game win streak. The most significant fact is that this is the third longest streak of the season.The fourth longest streak is three games, but not that many times. Everything A.A. did filled the holes in Defense and Offense, in the Bullpen and in the Rotation. Hope and pray for Marcus Stroman's return to be a success, because otherwise Copeland or Francis are your primary Rotation replacements. And on the Postseason roster.
scottt - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#310052) #
Estrada was actually pretty good today. It's the pen that surrendered most of the runs and that stuff happens.

I'm more concerned about Buehrle fading, but they can always give him extra rest in September if that's needed.

John Northey - Thursday, August 27 2015 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#310053) #
Wow, lots of negativity after the Jays dropped to 1 1/2 ahead of the Yankees in the division, which is their 2nd biggest lead of the year behind the 2 games they led by heading into today's game.

Remember, on Monday, May 25 the Jays were in last place, 3 1/2 behind the Rays. Yup, the Rays were first at that point and now are 8 behind the Jays. The Jays haven't been in last since.

I have no problems with them losing today, of course I'd prefer a win. But if they must lose at least Martin had the day off and Tulo had a partial day off and Sanchez threw just 6 pitches to get out of a bases loaded jam. A shame Hendriks wasn't his usual solid self today but when you score just 1 run nothing much will help.
King Ryan - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 03:29 AM EDT (#310054) #
"30 MLB managers."

Pretty much. You have to give up on this point on Managers managing the bullpen in a way that actually makes sense. As long as he isn't notably worse than the typical guy, whatever.
Dr. Zarco - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 07:07 AM EDT (#310055) #
Hi all, been around the Box since it was started though I probably haven't posted in a decade. Some random thoughts.

What an incredible team to watch. Even after falling down 4-0 I still felt they had a chance yesterday, it's a very refreshing change from past years.

Not to nitpick, and I'm surprised like John is at the negativity despite a 21-5 run, but I really thought it was a poor choice to not send Revere in the fateful 7th. He reached third just before Venable got the ball and is one of the fastest guys out there, I'm not even sure a perfect throw would have gotten him. Big change to the game being 1-1, much less pressure on Tulo, who knows what happens in that at bat, and probably brings in non-Hendriks (Hawkins was warning, too).

Fangraphs has the Jays playoff odds at 98.2%, division crown at 68.1%. Simply amazing, let's enjoy this ride.
hypobole - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 07:55 AM EDT (#310056) #
"But can we not all agree, leaving aside the obvious question of why he appeared as DH today rather than Colabello who is a natural DH, that using Tulowitzki as leadoff hitter has been an abject failure and the poor man needs to be moved to another spot in the order."

When I opined that Tulo seemed to be pressing in the leadoff spot and should be dropped down in the lineup, it was suggested it was akin to calling Tulo "mentally weak". I guess most MLB hitters are "mentally weak" or there wouldn't be a DH or pinch hit penalty.

Players (and people in general) usually optimize their abilities when placed in situations where they feel a greater level of comfort. Tulo certainly doesn't seem to have that level of comfort.

I understand trying to give your best hitters the most PA's. I understand Revere doesn't walk enough to be an ideal leadoff hitter, although he does get on base at a better rate than a league average leadoff hitter. What I don't understand is setting in stone Tulo has to bat leadoff.
China fan - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#310057) #
I don't think anything should be set in stone, let alone a lineup position.  But I also don't see any clear evidence for why a hitter would perform substantially better at a different place in the lineup. I don't buy the "pressure" argument.  Sure, any change might help, and I've got no objection to experimentation or even a "let's shake things up a little" change for the sake of change, but I'd prefer to see a clear rationale and some data.  (And not the small-sample-size of August versus his entire career.)
China fan - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#310058) #
"....Tulo certainly doesn't seem to have that level of comfort...."

See, this is the assertion that I find puzzling.  What's your metric for measuring "comfort level"?  Any hitter looks uncomfortable when he's swinging and missing, or when he's grounding to the shortstop.  What's the difference between an ordinary hitting slump and the "discomfort" that you seem to be detecting from his lineup position?  It just smacks of all the "intangibles" that we've spent many years debunking.  We don't accept that one hitter is a "clutch" performer or a "gritty" performer, or other vague intangibles, so why would we accept the "uncomfortable leading off" intangible?
Mike Green - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#310059) #
Welcome back, Dr. Zarco. I was only following on Gameday at the time, but I was surprised that Revere was held at third (I thought that maybe Venable was playing in for Goins and that it was a hard hit ball right at him)..

I too took the longer view concerning yesterday's game.  The club did battle, got a bit unlucky and Venable did make quite a catch on Pennington's line drive to save a run.  If you told me that the club would go 6-2 for this past road trip with 4 routs and a split of the close ones, I would have said that was pretty optimistic, and I'm a cup half full kind of person.

Who knew that Ryan Goins would end up being so important to the Blue Jay season? Magpie's saying that you have to very, very slow to make judgments seems to apply here. Most of us doubted that Goins would ever hit enough to carry his glove.  Wrong.

Alex Obal - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#310060) #
I didn't see either of the last two, so can't comment, but it was pretty cool how on Monday night Revere's mad dash into third on Tulo's game-tying bloop single to left (with two out and the 3-2 running start) ended up deciding the game.
Mike Green - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#310061) #
I had a look at DeShields' little league homer that broke open the game. 

Hendriks made a good 0-1 pitch, I thought, in on DeShields hands.  DeShields inside outed the ball on the ground ball between first and second for a single, which Bautista aggressively charged and missed.  I had two thoughts about the play:  the understandable decision to rest Tulowitzki creates a weaker defence on the right side of the diamond with Pennington replacing Goins and Encarnacion replacing Smoak, and it takes a good hitter to take advantage of it.  Some times you just have to tip your hat to the other guys.   

Jonny German - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#310062) #
I understand Revere doesn't walk enough to be an ideal leadoff hitter, although he does get on base at a better rate than a league average leadoff hitter.

Regardless if that's true (I don't know how to look it up, and my guess is it's a close call), how Revere compares to an average leadoff hitter is not relevant. What matters is how he looks compared to the other hitters in the lineup he plays in. He's off to a nice start in Toronto with a .352 OBP (93 PA), but for his career he's very established as a consistent .330 OBP guy. And on this team that's average.

Conversely, Tulowitzki's "abject failure" has amounted to a .325 OBP (117 PA). That's right in line with what you could hope to get from Revere, and there's plenty reason to believe Tulo will get better. Which is to say, a career OBP of .370. It make sense to continue giving more at-bats to the player with the greater talent level.

There is of course the question of base-stealing, something Revere does extremely well and Tulowitzki simply does not do. There is lots of room to debate how much that component adds to the value of a leadoff hitter, particularly in a lineup where the 2-3-4 hitters all slug over .500. I'll just say I'm glad that in the last couple games Revere has been moved from #9 to #7 - I think his speed is more useful when he's on base in front of weaker hitters.
Mike Green - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#310063) #
Matt Boyd gets the start tonight for the Tigers at the RC, which undoubtedly will be hopping.  You can't call Boyd an "old friend", can you?  "Young frenemy" just doesn't cut it though.
bpoz - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#310064) #
With an August record of 18-5, AA's moves have paid off big time. That is a .783 winning %. It has been a lot of fun.

However I would have predicted against that record. I am saying that .783 is very unlikely.

I hope, as all Jay's fans do, that we keep this up and win the WS.

For the record I was not a fan of trading all those prospects. The .783 winning % has definitely changed my mind.

Dr. Zarco - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#310065) #

Thanks, Mike! I thought Hendriks got more than a bit unlucky yesterday, BABIP'd to death, as they say. Most of the hits were ground balls that just weren't at someone. The Rangers announcers, who I actually enjoyed all series, were saying how most of the hits were on good pitcher's pitches that the hitters just got a bat on. Bautista's reaction after he missed the grounder was fairly priceless, too. The live Rangers broadcast was showing the third base coach stopping the runner, and then changing and waving him in, making me wonder what was going on. Then the camera cut to the back of Bautista's jersey, which was not much fun to see.

hypobole - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#310066) #
"but I'd prefer to see a clear rationale and some data. (And not the small-sample-size of August versus his entire career.)"

Leave him hitting leadoff for the next 3 years to have a substantive amount of data? Sorry CF, August is all I have.

Rationale:
Z contact - 80% w/Jays, 88.5% career, 85.75 2015 w/Col
Hard Contact - 26.9% w/Jays, 30.3% career, 40.2% 2015 w/Col
wOBA - .306 w/Jays, .378 career, .350 2015 w/Col
wRC+ - 91 w/Jays, 123 career, 105 w/Col

He's not hitting strikes as well as he should be and making more weak contact than one would expect from a hitter with his abilities.

What term would you use to describe Tulo's hitting at this point in time?
China fan - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#310067) #
How do you differentiate any of that from a normal slump?  And of all the dozens of factors that can lead to a hitting slump, how do you determine that "lineup place" is the main factor that matters?
hypobole - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#310068) #
CF- We can't. But what harm would it do to move an under-performing player lower in the lineup, even temporarily, rather than having him in a spot where he gets the most PA's of anyone on the team.
Mike Green - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#310069) #
There is a bit of an adjustment to being a leadoff hitter, as it relates to the first appearance.  The leadoff hitter hasn't seen the pitcher throw on that day and may have to adjust on the fly.  Tulowitzki had not led off prior to this year, and has hit .095/.290/.095 in his 24 plate appearances leading off the game. He has struck out only 5 times in these situations, so I am not worried that there is anything more to it than an adjustment. 

I agree with Gibbons' decision to leave things be.
China fan - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#310070) #
I don't see any real harm in shifting Tulo's lineup position.  But I quibble with the notion of using "recent performance" as the criteria for deciding where hitters should hit in the lineup.  The criteria shouldn't be "recent performance" -- it should be "expected future performance."  Based on his career and even based on his 2015 season, I'd say Tulo is more likely than Revere to get on base in the immediate future.    (I haven't checked  ZIPS, but I'd wager that ZIPS or any other projection system would give Tulo a higher likely OBP in September than Revere.)

pubster - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#310071) #
"Pretty much. You have to give up on this point on Managers managing the bullpen in a way that actually makes sense. As long as he isn't notably worse than the typical guy, whatever."

So not only does this poster know more about baseball than Gibbons, but he knows more about baseball than ALL 30 managers in the MLB. Very impressive!

I currently only know more than John Gibbons and Farrell.

Mike Green - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#310072) #
The discussion about the batting order put me in mind of the 1983 White Sox.  LaRussa made the unconventional decision (especially at the time) to bat Carlton Fisk 2nd in front of Luzinski, Kittle, Baines and Greg Walker.  Rudy Law (who would be the closest equivalent to Ben Revere) batted leadoff and with Julio Cruz at the bottom of the lineup ran a nice speed game.  Their "ace" was a knuckleballer, Wilbur Wood.  They won 99 games, but could manage only 3 runs in 4 games against the Orioles in the playoffs (thanks in large measure to an ugly 3 hits in 42 at-bats with runners in scoring position).  It's another good reminder about the element of variability in short series.  It didn't help that their bullpen at the top was unimpressive- Dennis Lamp was the ace.
uglyone - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#310073) #
managing to hot and cold streaks is bad managing.
uglyone - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#310074) #
"For the record I was not a fan of trading all those prospects. The .783 winning % has definitely changed my mind."

it probably shouldn't change your mind. it was either a good idea or not.

for me, this team and especially the offense were way too good and too rare not to go all in on, and i would have been royally peeved if AA had stood pat and horded prospects this year. for me the moves had to be made....and the fact that he managed to get THE best pitcher and position player moved at the deadline moved it from good to unbelievably great.

even if the team had blown up since, or 3ven if they blow up going forward, my mind won't change on that.
uglyone - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#310075) #
"There is of course the question of base-stealing, something Revere does extremely well and Tulowitzki simply does not do. There is lots of room to debate how much that component adds to the value of a leadoff hitter, particularly in a lineup where the 2-3-4 hitters all slug over .500"

is there all that much room to debate?

seems pretty clear that his basestealing is much more important in front of singles hitters like pillar and goins than it is in front of the power bats.

what's the counter argument?
uglyone - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#310076) #
"If we're not playing our best lineup every day, than we're playing to lose. Backups are just there if the starters get injured..."

the sarcastic extreme argument is a good one, but in this case is probably more relevant to apply to the opposite of what you're arguing.

you are the one arguing a rather extreme view on "resting" players, given how much you've criticized gibbons for managing one of the more rested lineups in baseball, and given how you disregard the rather large downside to a team resting its best players that often.
uglyone - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#310077) #
"But I will bite. The Blue Jays were 1.5 games back of the division and above .500 on July 31st, 2014, and AA did absolutely nothing. The team was clearly pissed off as a result. They did nothing down the stretch. At the time, AA was under contract for the following season. When the Tulowitzki trade was made the Jays were 50-50 and 6.5 GB and probably 8 in the L column. You can argue that was a long term trade as much as it was for 2015, so let's throw out there the Price trade being made at 7 GB. Now, you can scream run differential around all you like, but 7 games is 7 games. It's hard to think that AA's job security and Beeston's impending departure didn't play a role in the difference in decision making between 2014 and 2015."

yeah i'm gonna scream run differential again and again. and of course every other stat in the book too.

at some point may want to consider that half a season win/loss record is simply not a good metric to evaluate your team by. the only real import it has to evaluating potential moves is how close it has you to a playoff spot, not as a metric to evaluate the quality of your team.
Four Seamer - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#310078) #

I don't have any qualms about giving players the odd day of rest, and a day game after a night game, in searing Texas summer heat, seems the obvious place to do it.  But having decided to give Tulo the day off defensively, he should have given him the entire day off.  Not only did he remove either Colabello's bat (albeit against a righty) or Smoak's glove from the starting lineup, he effectively stapled them to the bench for the entire game.  As neither Pennington nor Goins could later be pinch-hit for without Tulo having to come in defensively, they realistically could only be used to pinch-hit for Revere or Pillar, rather than the two weakest bats in the order (strong recent play from Goins notwithstanding).  I'd have preferred they start Smoak at first, and save Tulowitzki and Colabello for deployment as pinch-hitters, but perhaps with signs (before yesterday) that Tulo's bat was starting to come around they wanted to leave him in there to get his hacks. 

eudaimon - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#310079) #
I don't get the idea that Tulo batting leadoff has been an "abject failure". That's pretty harsh, and a pretty wild judgment considering there's only about 100 ABs to judge him by. I like the move, especially how it gets Tulo more at bats, and think the comfort factor is generally overstated.
John Northey - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#310080) #
No question WL record is vital but it only tells you where you are at the moment, not where you'll be in a month.  The Runs for/against is a far better indicator of where the team would be in a month and it screamed the Jays were due to climb the standings.  How much was an open question.  Adding an ace (Price) and upgrading defense (Tulo, Revere) were ideal to cover the biggest issue to date (rotation, bullpen) while also upgrading the offense even further.  Adding Hawkins & Lowe to the pen was icing on the cake. 

The lineup now has 100+ OPS+ in all slots but 1B (Smoak), 2B (Goins/Pennington, although Travis is well above if he returns), CF (Pillar), and (at the moment) SS in Tulo.  Note how all guys at those 'weak' offensive slots are serious gold glove candidates.  Checking sOPS+ (which compares position to others at the same position in the league) we see sub 100's at 1B (97), LF (94), CF (84).

In the 2nd half we've got OPS for guys with more than 2 games...
1000+: Encarnacion, Donaldson, Colabello
900-999: Travis, Carrera, Bautista
800-899: none
700-799: Goins, (Reyes, Valencia)
600-699: Tulo, Revere, Martin, Navarro
sub 600: Smoak, Pillar, Pennington

Get Tulo & Martin hitting again and get Travis back and the league's pitchers might all go on strike when the Jays come to town :)

jjdynomite - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#310081) #
Interesting what Mike Green wrote: "Tulowitzki had not led off prior to this year, and has hit .095/.290/.095 in his 24 plate appearances leading off the game". That's pretty brutal. Tulo gets a hit less than 1 out of 10 times his first time up. Might as well add '1 out' every time the Jays start their first inning.

I really don't understand how maintaining a player at the top of the batting order, right after a mid-season trade, who has NEVER been at the top of the batting order makes any sense, other than the rationale that Tulo has proven himself before. But he's proven himself as a run producer in the 3- or 4- slot -- in an entirely different league.

Maybe Donaldson should bat first then. He's pretty familiar with American League pitching, and is the Jays' best hitter, so why doesn't HE get the most at bats! Damn the torpedoes, er, copious solo home runs. Switch Donaldson with Tulo! Then Tulo can actually get a look at a shiny new AL pitcher getting crushed from the on-deck circle.
mathesond - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#310082) #
off-topic, this is a pretty sweet editing job:

http://deadspin.com/the-blue-jays-are-gonna-cut-you-down-1727216678

John Northey - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#310083) #
batting first just 3 guys have 10+ games as a Jay this year.

Reyes: 285/322/385
Tulo: 225/319/353
Travis: 200/269/353

Others with 10+ PA
Donaldson: 276/313/586
Carrera: 077/200/077

For those who are curious...
Revere: 2 singles in 9 PA no walks 222/222/222

And that covers everyone who started a game in the leadoff slot.
Kasi - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#310084) #
Your logic that shows we have one of the most well rested lineups in baseball is flawed as others have pointed out. Bautista has not had a rest day all year and only played DH because he couldn't actually play in the field due to his shoulder. Donaldson has had one rest day the entire year. Pillar similarly went through a long stretch of playing every game. This is not a well rested lineup.

Secondly by extreme you mean a number very similar to what Bill James, that radical extremist threw out. Aka one day a month.
uglyone - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#310085) #
all our players have been rested far more than once per month.
eudaimon - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#310086) #
jj, 24 plate appearances is a tiny sample that no one can base anything on, unless of course that batter strikes out 24 times. Then you can be sure that they suck.

I think Tulo is a proven hitter, not just a proven 3/4 hitter. If he's not batting leadoff (I'd assume you'd replace him with Revere) he's probably batting 5th, and there he will get around 70 less at bats over the year. You generally want your best players batting as much as possible (70 at bats leads to an extra at bat every 2-3 games), and Tulo is only guaranteed to bat leadoff once per game.

I like that once we get through the 7 8 9 batters we're instantly greeted with one of our best hitters, as opposed to someone like Revere. I like Revere, but Tulo at his worse gets on base just as much, and I don't think we need speed as much at the top of this lineup.

Regardless, all these sample sizes are quite small. Tulo's been here 25 games, which is not long enough to judge a guy no matter where he's batting. If he was batting 5th with the same stat line would you be at all worried?

Kasi - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#310087) #
Because they're either catchers who shouldn't play every day, players who have missed time due to injury or filled in for injured players, players who basically only DH or players in platoon roles. Among our full time regular players who are not platooned (aka Donaldson, Bautista, Pillar and our SS whether that be Reyes or Tulo) those guys don't get time off except for the SS since both players there have been noted as players with injury histories so they have both been given time off.

But the other three regulars haven't. Our 35 year old RF with the bum shoulder, the all out young CF who has been very inconsistent at the plate and of course our stud 3b. Basically between them they've had a total of like 1-2 days off all year. Not rested more than once a month. You seem to think that being at the DH is magical rest. Sure it's less punishing than being in the field but it's not a day off. Not to mention Pillar had never played there and the other two haven't in months since EE has moved full time to DH. (Other than the few days EE was out with a bum finger)
uglyone - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#310088) #
2013-15 wRC+ leaders

9. N.Cruz 146
9. J.Bautista 146
11. E.Encarnacion 144
11. J.Donaldson 144
13. Y.Puig 143
14. F.Freeman 141
15. B.Posey 139
16. M.Holliday 138
17. D.Ortiz 137
18. C.Davis 136
18. A.Rizzo 136
18. T.Tulowitzki 136
China fan - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#310089) #
Another off-topic topic:  the dispute between Steve Tolleson and the Blue Jays is pretty weird.  He's a potentially useful bench player, especially when rosters expand.  Anthopoulos claims that Tolleson "just decided he didn't want to play any more."  Tolleson denies this, and says he is keen to return.  The dispute seems to be about his injury status when he was DFA'd on July 1, and whether he should have been on a major-league salary (because he was on the DL and was rehabbing) or whether he should have been on a minor-league salary (because the rehab was over).  Not sure who's right and wrong in this dispute, but it's unfortunate because Tolleson could be a useful role player from the bench when rosters expand.  Here are some further details, but it doesn't really explain the whole mystery of what happened in this dispute:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-tolleson-works-for-return-amid-uncertainty/

uglyone - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#310090) #
Kasi your very own words complained that we apparently weren't using the DH to rest guys enough - now you are claiming that it's not rest?

Donaldson has had 6 games at DH, 1 game as a pinch hitter for one at bat, and another game off. That's 8 rest days in 5 months.
uglyone - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#310091) #
maybe you want to count DH as a half rest day?

then that's 5 rest days in 5 months.
Kasi - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#310092) #
DH should be used to rest players on top of actually giving them days off. Look at Yankees fans now complaining about Arod. He's been at DH all year but he's wearing down. DH certainly does help, although with EE being there full time there is much less chance for players to go there. But it is clearly not a day off, or even a half day off.
uglyone - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#310093) #
by the same measure, martin has had 30 rest days this year. Bautista 25.

even pillar's total is misleading as it includes games where he was just a pinch runner or hitter, and half games when he was being platooned.
uglyone - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#310094) #
So you're advocating for even more rest than Bill James said. You want one full day of rest per month, and then even more partial rest days as DH and what have you?
Magpie - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#310095) #
The only true rest days are the ones baked into the schedule. They had 2 in April, 2 in May, 2 in June, 1 in July (and 4 more for the guys who didn't go the All-Star Game), and 4 in August.

Otherwise, days off in baseball are a little different. It's not like hockey, with its optional skate where you can stay home if you prefer. You still show up at the ballpark four or five hours before first pitch. You still put on your uniform, take ground balls, hit in the cage, shag flies. It's just that after all of that, you don't get to play in the game. That's no fun.

And even if you're not playing in the game, you're going to be ready to play. If the team is down by a run in the 9th and Ryan Goins is batting with men on base and your name is Jose Bautista and you're sitting on the bench... you've anticipated such a development and you're going to be ready. Whether it comes around or not.
Kasi - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#310096) #
No I just want what James said. One day completely off for full time players per month. I don't think his advise was different for NL to AL. All three full time players have had a combined 2 rest days all year basically.

DH should be used for players nursing injuries or at higher risk of injuries to keep their bat in the lineup. People like Tulo, Martin, Bautista, Donaldson would all qualify. We are blessed with EE so I assume he gets 90% of DH time. The rest should be used for star hitters who are high injury risks or are nursing day to day issues.
92-93 - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#310097) #
Instead of looking at a ridiculously small sample size of how Tulowitzki is leading off games this year, why not look at the 952 PA he has over the course of his career leading off an inning, in which he has hit .306/.363/.568? He's a career .297/.370/.509 with those 952 PA included, which means over the course of his career he has done better leading off an inning than not.

If I were managing, I would walk over to Troy and ask if he's more comfortable in the 1 or 5 spot, and if he said he doesn't care then I'm leading him off.
hypobole - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#310098) #
DH certainly does help, although with EE being there full time there is much less chance for players to go there. But it is clearly not a day off, or even a half day off.

Depends on the position. For a catcher, it's way more than a half day off.
Kasi - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#310099) #
Well sure but I think studies have shown catchers should not catch more than about 110 games in a year. Anything over that and you're pushing your luck on their health. I also agree with Magpie in that some of those 6 days off that they will come in as a pinch runner/hitter or a defensive replacement so they won't get 6 full days off.

It is my opinion that a few off days more for Bautista and Pillar could have mitigated some of the struggles they had at the plate this season by keeping them more fresh. Donaldson is just a stud right now and it's hard to imagine him doing any better than he is, just be happy that he's been healthier than our last hustle 3B.

I also think that this debate is pretty pointless at this point. The idea of rest days is to keep the players fresh for the stretch run and the playoffs. We can't go back in time to May-July and give those players time off. It is what it is now and with the amount of days off we've had lately and what we'll have next month I expect the best lineup to be out every day except for the occasional day game following a night game for the rest of this season.
Intricated - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#310100) #
I won't bother looking at why these players missed playing the team games they did, just the fact they didn't play, started game as DH, entered the game as a pinch hitter/runner, or entered as a defensive replacement.
Player Name GP  TG  DNP DH PH/R DR Comments
Mike Trout 124 127 3 4 0 0 Played CF after starting at DH in 1 game
M. Machado 127 127 0 0 0 0
L. Cane 112 126 14 2 1 0
Kiermaier 122 127 5 0 12 7 Stayed and played the field after 10 PH/R appearances
I. Kinsler 125 127 2 0 0 1
A. Eaton 120 126 6 3 1 0 Stayed and played the field after PH appearance
S. Perez 111 127 16 2 1 1 Stayed and played the field after PH appearance
B. Gardner 118 126 8 0 4 2 Stayed and played the field after all PH/R appearances
A. Beltre 107 126 19 1 0 0 All 19 games missed was all consecutive (due to injury?)
N. Cruz 125 128 3 49 0 0
Donaldson 125 127 2 6 1 0
J. Bautista 120 127 7 33 2 0
R. Martin 104 126 22 5 4 1 Stayed and played the field after 1 PH appearance
K. Pillar 126 127 1 0 2 1 Stayed and played the field after 1 PH appearance
Mike Green - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#310101) #
For your Friday afternoon viewing pleasure, courtesy of Jonah Keri, your 2015 Blue Jays and Johnny Cash.
jjdynomite - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#310102) #
92-93, in interviews Tulo hasn't given a hint either way that he doesn't like lead-off, just that he feels he's still scuffling and getting used to a new hitting environment.

Given that, I'll repeat. Not only is Tulo being asked to newly start games/set the table instead of his run-producing middle-of-the-order history in Colorado, but:
- He's in a brand new league
- He's in a brand new home stadium
- Most of the away stadiums he has also spent minimal time in (save for interleague plus 2 games in Fenway in WS 2007)
- Almost all pitchers he is facing outside of Philly are net new as they are American League pitchers, but being first man up he can't watch anyone bat ahead of him
- He has weak players hitting in front of him so the majority of time he is batting with few men on base, as opposed to his run producing role with the Rockies

But hey, Troy, welcome to the AL and Canada! And oh yeah, you're leading off, buddy, something you've never done before, even though you've stolen a grand total of 1 base this season.

---

Anyway, I've said my piece. I will leave you with this nice Grantland column on our boys in blue:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-toronto-blue-jays-playoff-hopes/

A bit peeved the writer mentioned the back-to-back-to-back of Tulo, Donaldson and JBats while omitting EE of the 22 game hit streak. Back-to-back-to-back-to-back anyone?

Mike Green - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#310103) #
Colabello gets the start tonight against Boyd tonight at first base.  The bottom of the order is Revere, Goins, Thole.  It's a surprise that the lefties weren't broken up by Pillar.
John Northey - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#310104) #
Jays have played 127 games.
Pillar has played 126 (just one day off)
Donaldson 125 (2 off days)
Bautista 120 (7 games 100% off)
the only others over 80 are Encarnacion (115), Martin (104) and Smoak (100) with Goins at 95

Clearly only Donaldson and Pillar have been run into the ground, Donaldson has played 158 each of the past 2 years while Pillar is playing his first full ML season.
hypobole - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#310105) #
Pillar missed almost no time in the minors either.

He and Donaldson seem to be antithesis of Saunders and Lawrie.



Mike Green - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#310106) #
Gibbons now says that the way things are going, Stroman might make a couple of starts for the club down the stretch, per Wilner on twitter.  Stroman apparently threw 51 pitches today, and will aim for 65-70 next Wednesday in Lansing. 
Kasi - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#310107) #
John the days Bautista had off were because he was injured. He strained his right shoulder in April and missed a few days. Then later on he got a cortisone shot and missed several more. I don't consider I'm too injured to play to be rest days. Also it could be argued he still needs more since his shoulder is still not right as evident from the current weakness of his throwing arm. Donaldson missed the last game of the first half because of the flu.

So when you take that into account, these are the number for healthy rest days this year:

Bautista - 0
Pillar - 1
Donaldson - 1

That's not enough, especially for Pillar and Bautista.
John Northey - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#310109) #
Agreed. I'd like to see them get a few days off before the playoffs. Ideally the Jays go on another hot streak so they can easily give the big guys a few days off late in the season.
Magpie - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#310115) #
Donaldson 125 (2 off days)

As I said, days you don't play in the game are only partial days off. But there's also the the day he sat until pinch-hitting in the 9th - another partial day off. There's the six days he was DHing while Valencia played 3b. More partial days. Plus the nine days where he didn't even have to go to the ball park. Genuine, honest-to-goodness days off.
eudaimon - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#310125) #
The A-Rod comparison is a bit off. The guy's over 9000 years old now, he definitely would need more time off than younger people.

And why does the fact that Bautista was rested due to injury not count as rest? His shoulder was injured. The rest of his body still got time off. It's not like he's scuffling, so I don't get the complaints here.

As for Donaldson, it's hard to bench someone who hasn't had a real slump all year. Don't fix what ain't broken. Maybe in September, if we build up a nice little lead we can give him a day off.

Overall, much ado about nothing I think. I have a hard time comprehending how anyone can be so negative right now.

CeeBee - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#310126) #
There's enough complaining in here for it to be an older ladies tea party or something...... O well, I can always just watch the Jays play I guess. :)
rtcaino - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#310132) #
"And why does the fact that Bautista was rested due to injury not count as rest?"

It counts as rest for the player. But, it doesn't support the notion that Gibby has been giving the players enough rest.
Kasi - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#310143) #
There is a reason teams don't do the Ripken full season anymore. Number of players playing full seasons have been dropping for years, and many teams are giving a lot more rest days to their players.

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/116446316/baseball-is-realizing-the-value-of-taking-a-day-off
Intricated - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#310148) #
Player Name GP  TG  DNP DH PH/R DR Comments
A. Jones    116 127 11  3  0    0  Missed 5 games in a row, also a 3 game stretch, and a 2-gamer; missed a single game once.
F. Freeman 84 127 43 1 1 1 Missed 13 games in a row, and 30 games in a row. Played field after PH (in game back from 30-gamer).
E. Longoria 125 127 2 7 2 0 Played field after his PH appearance.
A. Escobar 117 127 10 0 0 0 Missed 7 games in a row, also a 2 game stretch; missed a single game once.
Intricated - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 12:26 AM EDT (#310149) #
I'm having a hard time finding a similar player that's obviously being rested this season more often than Donaldson, Bautista, Pillar, and Martin.  Cane I suppose is closest, but KC has Dyson (and Zobrist) to rotate with.  Kiermaier is an outlier with how Cash runs his team.  Cruz is more of a DH playing OF than an OF resting at DH.

One can argue the Jays group needs more rest (Bautista's shoulder, Pillar's up/down bat, Martin's bat and comments) than their group of performing/age positional peers, but I only consider it tactically as Gibbons is evidently doing, at least until a playoff berth is assured.
rtcaino - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 01:28 AM EDT (#310150) #
RE: Donaldson. (Since this thread is still active, and we are discussing playing time/rest.)

I understand that games played is one of the official determining factors for MVP voting. If that is the case, I do not expect Gibby to give him, of all players, much time off down the stretch.
King Ryan - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 03:29 AM EDT (#310151) #
"Instead of looking at a ridiculously small sample size of how Tulowitzki is leading off games this year, why not look at the 952 PA he has over the course of his career leading off an inning..."

Because leading off an inning is not the same thing as leading off the first inning.
China fan - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#310153) #
"....Because leading off an inning is not the same thing as leading off the first inning...."

Why not?  What's the difference?  What particular "pressure" or other intangible element would render Tulo suddenly less capable when he leads off the first inning?  I've yet to see a convincing explanation of why a consistently excellent veteran like Tulo, with 10 years of strong hitting in the majors, would suddenly lose his hitting abilities because he happens to be the first hitter in a game.  The random fluctuations of small sample size -- the "slumps" that afflict all hitters from time to time, often without a simple explanation or perhaps due to a tiny mechanical adjustment issue -- would seem a more likely explanation.
CeeBee - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#310157) #
I guess leading off might get into a players head if they don't like leading off but AFAIK we are not privy to whats going on in Tulo's head. Jays are winning, pitching has improved immensely, hitting is down right awesome, defense much the same so there's slim pickins to bitch about I guess.
Tulo leading off and Frye Gobbins seem to be the hot topics it seems though maybe the waiver wire stuff that is happening could get things rolling in that direction. :)
uglyone - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#310163) #
thank you, intricated.
King Ryan - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#310173) #
"Why not? What's the difference?"

Because when you're leading off the first inning you're seeing a pitcher for the first time. Batters in general hit better against pitchers the more times they see them. Even if you're batting 2nd you can watch the pitcher from the on-deck circle and get some information. If you're leading off the third inning, you've seen the pitcher throw maybe 30-50 pitches already. That's the point.
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